Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Simulated Gambling Week Eight

Weak! My weekly picks post should be shut down and declared a hazard to the health of my readers. At this point in the season, I should be at least 20 games over .500. I am taking drastic action to remedy the situation. I have picked a season-high 17 games with the hope that I’ll shed the failed expectations for that of what I intended when the season began. Some of you may have noticed that my “moneymaker” tends to be road teams that have been undeservingly slighted by the odds-makers just by simply being a road team. However, the last few weeks haven’t helped much. So, I’ve actually picked nine home teams this week. Hopefully this diverse pool of picks will pay off. Wish me luck (unless you hate me)!

Season Record: 45-38-3

(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

West Virginia -21 CONNECTICUT

I might live to regret this pick. WVU seems to sleepwalk through games. But, I think it could beat Connecticut by 21 on “accident”.

Louisville -16.5 SYRACUSE

Syracuse deserves some “props” for being better than expected. However, I think Brian Brohm will be looking to establish Louisville’s explosive offense in the tune-up to the Big East game of the year against West Virginia.

ARKANSAS -15.5 Mississippi

Arkansas has undergone a makeover since its embarrassing home-loss to USC in the season-opener. This is a team that puts up big-time points. Mississippi stinks.

NOTRE DAME -12.5 Ucla

Notre Dame’s defense scares me a bit but UCLA won’t be able to stop Notre Dame at home. A fourth quarter score by UCLA may do me in but if that doesn’t happen, then I think I’ve got this one.

AUBURN -32 Tulane

This smells like a 50+ point game for Auburn.


Do you think Garrett Wolfe is going to be pissed after laying an egg against Western Michigan last week? Temple is far and away the worst team in D-1 football. This could be a 300 yard day for him.


Michigan usually switches to ball control mode with a two touchdown lead in the second half. That leads me to believe that Iowa may stick around just long enough to keep this one under 15 points.

Texas -6.5 NEBRASKA

Nebraska already proved that it can’t hang with the big boys when it was smoked by USC. Texas is a “big boy”. Texas is also in the unenviable position of having to impress the computers. It’ll try to score as many points as possible.

CLEMSON -8 Georgia Tech

Who would’ve thought that this would be the game of the year in the ACC? I certainly didn’t. To be honest, I’m actually glad to see some new blood after Florida State, Miami (FL) and Virginia Tech had been the dominant teams in their conference(s) (ACC and Big East). Georgia Tech is too good and Clemson is too flaky for this to be a blow out.


What’s up with the Cougars getting some love every week by the odds-makers? The lock of the century was last week when Cal was only a 7.5 point favorite over WSU. This is pretty close to a lock but I won’t go that far.

Texas Christian University -11 ARMY

Army played TCU tough two years ago. That doesn’t mean much to me. TCU should smoke the Black Knights.

Miami (FL) -17.5 DUKE

People need to remember that this is still Duke football! I don’t care how many players are suspended from Miami. Duke scored a combined ZERO points against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Richmond. All three of those teams are terrible.

PITTSBURGH -6.5 Rutgers

This is just a pick for “Rutgers putting up a fight at the very least.” I don’t know who is going to win this game but I haven’t seen anything that tells me that Rutgers can’t play with Pittsburgh. I would love to see the Scarlet Knights win.

CALIFORNIA -23 Washington

I may pay for this pick and, really, you could make an argument for either team. However, the Pac-10 has more meaningless fourth quarter points scored than any conference. Even if Washington gets smoked, there is a decent chance that it’ll score a few points in the fourth quarter to cover. Plus, Washington isn’t terrible.

South Carolina-3 VANDERBILT

Vanderbilt is a decent, possibly bowl bound team. South Carolina is better. I’ll take the “better” team -3 in just about every match-up. If a team wins, odds are it’ll win by more than three.


Texas A&M beat a very good Missouri team last week. Oklahoma State showed some life last week too but still gave up 32 points to Kansas. Texas A&M “should” win this game.

FLORIDA STATE -9.5 Boston College

I’m pretty sure I know the three best teams in the ACC and none of them are Florida State. Ironically, one of those teams is BC who happens to be a 9.5 underdog to Florida State. Go figure. I’ll take BC.

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