Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Odds of Going Undefeated Week Nine

Nobody dropped out of the group of undefeated teams but Rutgers’ win over Pittsburgh sets up the possibility of a second battle of unbeaten teams in the Big East between the West Virginia/Louisville winner and Rutgers. Barring a big-time upset, Boise State will go undefeated. That’s good for Boise State but irrelevant for the rest of the college football world. I did change the game odds for some of Boise State’s remaining games because it appears as though it is considerably better than any team in its conference. Ohio State and Michigan will most certainly play for a spot in the BCS Championship on November 18. Right now, it looks as though USC, Auburn, Florida, West Virginia/Louisville winner, and the loser of the OSU/Michigan game have the best shot at being the second team in the BCS Championship game.

Top 7
(odds of going undefeated)

1 Ohio State-----55.87%
2 Boise State----50.63%
3 Michigan------38.81%
4 W. Virginia----21.53%
5 Louisville------21.53%
6 USC------------15.04%
7 Rutgers---------3.62%

Teams that dropped from last week’s list (along with pre-season rank in terms of odds): None

Biggest Jump (percentage): Boise State +17.82, Michigan + 12.94

Current overall chance of undefeated team(s) (100%=1 undefeated team, 200%=2 undefeated teams etc.): 207.03

Odds that current one-loss teams will win out:

(If Arkansas wins the SEC West, then Auburn’s odds of winning out double to roughly 45%.)

1 Notre Dame-----40.21%
2 Texas------------34.45%
3 Cal----------------29.17%
4 Auburn----------22.28%
5 Wisconsin-------22.28%
6 BC----------------18.04%
7 Clemson---------17.50%
8 Florida------------8.82%
9 Tennessee--------8.10%
10 Missouri---------1.74%
11 Arkansas---------1.19%
12 Texas A&M------0.75%
13 Wake Forest-----0.33%

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