Sunday, October 29, 2006

Odds of Going Undefeated Week Ten

Although I had a pretty good idea that USC would lose before the regular season ended, I had no idea that it would lose to Oregon State. I’m sure a lot of you remember that Oregon State got annihilated by Boise State earlier in the season 42-14. I don’t know what that says for a USC/Boise State match-up but I do know that Oregon State, albeit improved, isn’t a good football team. That loss likely leaves USC out of the BCS Championship game even if a one-loss team is one of the participants because USC has the worst loss out of the one-loss contenders. For the first time since the season began, the overall number of projected undefeated teams went down. You can blame that on USC although I doubt that people around these parts mind. I certainly don’t. My odds still show two undefeated teams but I think there will be three counting Boise State.

Top 6
(Odds of going undefeated)

1 Boise State-----60.75%
2 Ohio State-----58.81%
3 Michigan-------39.20%
4 W. Virginia-----17.23%
5 Louisville-------17.23%
6 Rutgers---------11.11%

Teams that dropped from last week’s list (along with pre-season rank in terms of odds): #2 USC

Biggest Jump (percentage): Rutgers +7.49%

Current overall chance of undefeated team(s) (100%=1 undefeated team, 200%=2 undefeated teams etc.): 194.20%

Odds that current one-loss teams will win out:

(If Arkansas wins the SEC West, then Auburn’s odds of winning out double to roughly 45%. If Florida and Tennessee win the rest of their SEC games, then Tennessee’s odds of winning out double to roughly 27%)

1 Texas------------45.94%
2 Notre Dame-----42.32%
3 Cal---------------29.17%
4 Wisconsin-------24.75%
5 Auburn----------24.75%
6 Florida-----------23.51%
7 BC----------------18.23%
8 USC-------------15.83%
9 Tennessee------13.50%
10 Arkansas-------1.25%
11 Texas A&M-----0.83%
12 Wake Forest---0.49%

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