It was sad and sobering to find out that the rumors of Joe D’s courtship of Ben Gordon were true. Reports suggesting Joe D’s interest had been around for a while but I—along with what I’m assuming were many dumbfounded Pistons fans—didn’t want to believe that such an inexplicable infatuation existed. Gordon is not versatile enough to merit such a large chunk of the payroll especially considering he’ll be coming off the bench. His game leaves a lot to be desired. He is not a particularly good defender. He is undersized for a shooting guard. He isn’t particularly good at getting to the rim. Plus—and most troublesome—he plays the same position as Rip Hamilton. Remember when the Lakers spent $12 million on Joe Johnson to backup Kobe Bryant at shooting guard? I don’t either. Most NBA GMs are smart enough to not do such a thing.
I’m slightly more enthused about the addition of Charlie Villanueva mainly because a) he costs less and b) he isn’t a shooting guard. The Pistons inked Villanueva to a deal that pays out $7 million a year. Considering some of the mammoth stat lines that he put up in 2008, he could end up turning out to be a monumental bargain. He could also turn out to be a less effective and equally frustrating version of Rasheed Wallace. Still, the gamble isn’t a bad one and I would’ve been intrigued just as the Pistons were. However, I certainly would not have let the addition of Villanueva ruin the possibility of signing two max-contract players which seems to be the case.
I had written extensively over the last few months about Detroit’s generous cap space and how to not ruin the advantageous situation it presented. The Pistons had room for two max contracts next season and considering the absurdity of riches available in the Summer of LeBron, daydreams of Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson signing with the Pistons were difficult to ignore. I implored Joe D not to simply spend his fortune a year early just because he had the money. Obviously, I have no influence at 4 Championship Dr. The money is gone and so are all of the dreamy scenarios that fans had mapped out in their heads.
My opinion may be in the minority but I’ve never been afraid of blowing a season on rebuilding/retooling if it’s necessary to get to the next level. For instance, if Rich Rodriguez leads Michigan to the success that I think he will, then suffering through one pathetic season will be well worth it. The problem is that GMs have such precarious job security that they don’t have the luxury of burning a year. Joe D’s job is not in jeopardy, though. If anyone has the luxury of burning a year without consequence, it’s him. Joe should’ve rolled with what he had for 2009-10 and banked his loot for next season. The Pistons would’ve come away with three things: 1) lottery pick for 2010, 2) a better understanding of Rodney Stuckey’s ability (or inability) to play point and 3) $30+ million to burn on the greatest free agent class in NBA history. Instead, Joe D psyched himself out and blew all of that on an undersized shooting guard and a shakier version of Rasheed Wallace.
Even after Joe inked Gordon and Villanueva, this whole transition didn’t have to go poorly. The addition of Gordon makes little to no sense given the presence of Rip Hamilton. However, rumors circulated that the Pistons were talking to the Jazz about a Boozer for Hamilton trade. That would’ve changed everything. The addition of Boozer would’ve given the Pistons immediate credibility and a roster more talented than most of the league. Boozer, Villanueva, and Tayshaun Prince to go along with Ben Gordon and Rodney Stuckey in the backcourt would’ve given the Pistons a bevy of scoring options. Boozer would’ve been the answer to the low post woes that have haunted the Pistons for years. Even if you don't like Boozer, it would've been a great move. He is a free agent next season which would’ve made the trade an even bigger score for the Pistons. Boozer would either re-sign with the Pistons or go somewhere else leaving them enough money to shop for one of the superstars of the 2010 free agent class. Either way, acquiring Boozer would’ve been a huge score. It would change my view of Joe D permanently if it came to light that he was responsible for nixing a Hamilton for Boozer trade. Instead, I’ll have to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume it was Utah who declined.
Joe D is very close to painting himself into a corner. He has $23 million allocated to shooting guards for the next four years. That would be #2 on the list of “How Not to Build a Championship Contender” just behind “hiring Kevin McHale to make important decisions.” Joe has one way out and it’s exchanging Rip for a big-man. His legacy likely rides on it.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
Mindless in Florida
I will not be posting over the next two weeks. I am on vacation and—as a result—my brain is only functioning at half capacity. If something truly incredible or revolutionary enters my mind—nearly impossible even when I’m not on vacation—then I’ll probably post something. Otherwise, enjoy the holiday and be sure to turn off the TV when Joel Zumaya is pitching. For all of the naysayers out there who said I didn’t have it in me to write a short post, who’s talking now? That’s what I thought!
Friday, June 26, 2009
Don't sleep on this draft
It had become cliché over the last few weeks to rip this year’s crop of NBA draft prospects. Clearly, this draft isn’t going to threaten ’84, ’96, and ’03 as the three greatest draft classes of all-time but I’m not buying this draft as a failure. First of all, there is a bona fide, can’t miss superstar at the top in Blake Griffin. His size, quickness, and athleticism is something beyond what the likes of Carlos Boozer and Chris Bosh can offer. Griffin is going to be a match-up nightmare in the way Kevin Garnett used to be. Even the Clippers won't be able to stop him from wreaking havoc on the NBA.
One reason why I think this draft has a chance to be very, very good is my belief that there is more than just one superstar in the making. It’s hard to argue that Hasheem Thabeet is overrated when he went 2nd overall but I think people are underestimating the impact that he is going to have in the NBA. He’s the closest thing the NBA has seen to Shaq since "The Diesel" entered the league 17 years ago. At 7’3, 265 lbs, Thabeet is a beast. Like Shaq, he finishes at the rim for high percentage shots. He doesn’t have Shaq’s footwork or explosiveness, but he will overmatch most NBA centers. He is better offensively than Dikembe Mutombo—not saying a whole lot there—but most importantly he’s just as good defensively. Thabeet is going to be a perennial all-star and could challenge Dwight Howard for center supremacy in the NBA in just a few short years. In my opinion, Thabeet is almost as much of a can’t-miss superstar as Griffin although very few people seem to agree.
I’m as uncertain on Ricky Rubio as everyone else seems to be. He could end up being the Spanish Pistol Pete or he could end up being the Spanish Influenza. Much of the uncertainty has to do with the fact that—aside from a brief introduction in Beijing—nobody has seen him play. He is a wild card. Someone who is not a wild card, in my opinion, is Stephen Curry. I think people have made the mistake of assuming that he is the next in a long line of undersized, sharpshooting, college off-guards who are incapable of making the transition to the NBA ala Shawn Respert and J.J. Redick. The difference between Curry and the guys who couldn't transition is like the difference between Ice Cream and Yogurt. In other words, it's enormous. Curry can make every shot on the floor. He is a potent ball-handler and an incredible passer. He doesn’t have an impressive physique or crazysexycool athleticism which is probably the only reason he wasn’t a top-five pick. However, he is quick, has handles and mad range. He is a shooting guard who can play the point. It is difficult to imagine a player with his repertoire not becoming--at the very least--an all-star.
I’m not as sold on James Harden’s upside but it would be silly to say he can’t hack it in the league. He is a Mitch Richmond-type who certainly will be able to score. He doesn’t have the all-around game but he is a polished scorer who is unlikely to be a bust.
I’ll reserve judgment on Tyreke Evans, Johnny Flynn, Jordan Hill, and DeMar DeRozan since I haven’t seen enough to warrant any sort of a prediction. I did get to see Flynn at Syracuse quite a few times and he was certainly impressive. It’s hard to imagine all four of these cats being busts.
There is too much “upside” in this draft to warrant the negativity that has surrounded it. Very few drafts in recent memory have produced as many solid point guard prospects alone as this one. Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague and Darren Collison went 17th, 18th, 19th, and 21st respectively not to mention Brandon Jennings who went 10th.
If nothing else, this is a deep draft. The talent leaked deep into the second round with the likes of DeJuan Blair, Sam Young, Dajuan Summers, Patty Mills, Jodie Meeks, Chase Budinger and Patrick Beverley. It’ll obviously be a while before we find out how good this draft really is but I would be surprised if it isn’t above the 50th percentile of all-time NBA Drafts which is a far cry from the “one of the worst drafts ever”-moniker that had been thrown around by a lot of different people in recent weeks. R.I.P. Michael Jackson.
One reason why I think this draft has a chance to be very, very good is my belief that there is more than just one superstar in the making. It’s hard to argue that Hasheem Thabeet is overrated when he went 2nd overall but I think people are underestimating the impact that he is going to have in the NBA. He’s the closest thing the NBA has seen to Shaq since "The Diesel" entered the league 17 years ago. At 7’3, 265 lbs, Thabeet is a beast. Like Shaq, he finishes at the rim for high percentage shots. He doesn’t have Shaq’s footwork or explosiveness, but he will overmatch most NBA centers. He is better offensively than Dikembe Mutombo—not saying a whole lot there—but most importantly he’s just as good defensively. Thabeet is going to be a perennial all-star and could challenge Dwight Howard for center supremacy in the NBA in just a few short years. In my opinion, Thabeet is almost as much of a can’t-miss superstar as Griffin although very few people seem to agree.
I’m as uncertain on Ricky Rubio as everyone else seems to be. He could end up being the Spanish Pistol Pete or he could end up being the Spanish Influenza. Much of the uncertainty has to do with the fact that—aside from a brief introduction in Beijing—nobody has seen him play. He is a wild card. Someone who is not a wild card, in my opinion, is Stephen Curry. I think people have made the mistake of assuming that he is the next in a long line of undersized, sharpshooting, college off-guards who are incapable of making the transition to the NBA ala Shawn Respert and J.J. Redick. The difference between Curry and the guys who couldn't transition is like the difference between Ice Cream and Yogurt. In other words, it's enormous. Curry can make every shot on the floor. He is a potent ball-handler and an incredible passer. He doesn’t have an impressive physique or crazysexycool athleticism which is probably the only reason he wasn’t a top-five pick. However, he is quick, has handles and mad range. He is a shooting guard who can play the point. It is difficult to imagine a player with his repertoire not becoming--at the very least--an all-star.
I’m not as sold on James Harden’s upside but it would be silly to say he can’t hack it in the league. He is a Mitch Richmond-type who certainly will be able to score. He doesn’t have the all-around game but he is a polished scorer who is unlikely to be a bust.
I’ll reserve judgment on Tyreke Evans, Johnny Flynn, Jordan Hill, and DeMar DeRozan since I haven’t seen enough to warrant any sort of a prediction. I did get to see Flynn at Syracuse quite a few times and he was certainly impressive. It’s hard to imagine all four of these cats being busts.
There is too much “upside” in this draft to warrant the negativity that has surrounded it. Very few drafts in recent memory have produced as many solid point guard prospects alone as this one. Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague and Darren Collison went 17th, 18th, 19th, and 21st respectively not to mention Brandon Jennings who went 10th.
If nothing else, this is a deep draft. The talent leaked deep into the second round with the likes of DeJuan Blair, Sam Young, Dajuan Summers, Patty Mills, Jodie Meeks, Chase Budinger and Patrick Beverley. It’ll obviously be a while before we find out how good this draft really is but I would be surprised if it isn’t above the 50th percentile of all-time NBA Drafts which is a far cry from the “one of the worst drafts ever”-moniker that had been thrown around by a lot of different people in recent weeks. R.I.P. Michael Jackson.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Scott Boras thinks U R are stupid
Scott Boras is giving Billy Mays a run for his money. Perhaps no human being on the planet aside from Mays can pitch a terrible offer better than Boras. His attempts to sell Magglio Ordonez as an $18 million dollar player for 2010 rival anything Mays did with the Awesome Auger or the Samurai Shark. Boras graced our lovely planet with the following beauty of a statement…
That’s it? This is all about seven home runs? Let’s go to the chart:
*2009 numbers based on 146 game pace
Clearly, Boras has issues comprehending multiple variables because there’s a lot more going on here than a reduction in home runs. How about the fact that Mags is on pace to drive in 47 fewer runs? What about the fact that he went from an OPS 27% above the league average to 18% below? Better yet, what about everything? Mags has clearly significantly regressed in virtually every measurable way. I would love to watch Boras try to sell Charles Barkley to an NBA team right now. I think it might go something like this, “the only difference between Charles Barkley now and Charles Barkley 15 years ago is that he’s pushing 350 pounds and can’t post-up--or defend--a flag pole. That’s it! Everything else is still in perfect condition. His elbows still bend. He can still put on his own uniform. Plus, he can say "Anything less would be uncivilized" with a British accent while riding a horse. How does $20 million per game sound?” Don’t get Boras started on "The Splendid Splinter." According to Scotty Baseball, the only thing keeping Ted Williams from starting in left field for the Red Sox is the fact that his head is frozen in a cryogenics lab in Arizona.
Lame jokes aside, Mags has been terrible this year. The Tigers were very, very smart four years ago to put a clause in his contract that would prevent them from having to pay an obviously diminished player $18 million in 2010 and $15 million in 2011. Those salaries would be guaranteed if Mags reaches 270 combined games between this year and last. There isn’t a math wizard on the planet who could successfully argue that Mags is worth that sort of money over the next two season. Boras, of course, is looking out for his own butt. He gets paid commission based on his clientele’s earnings. A five percent-cut (or whatever his rate is) of $33 million is a lot more money than a five percent-cut of $10 million (or however much Mags could sign for on the free agent market). That's a $1.15 million loss for Boras. So remember, the next time Boras impersonates a failing "Logic 101" student, it’s because he stands to lose money.
The only legitimate question here is whether the Tigers should release Mags or keep him benched until he can’t reach his contract kicker. The latter would allow the possibility of a return for the playoffs assuming a). the Tigers reach the playoffs and b). he has his act together by then. However, that could also be a public relations nightmare. As moronic as Boras sounded in the above article, he represents a lot of pretty important people in baseball. The Tigers don’t need him as an enemy. That’s why I think the Tigers should just release Mags. He could sign with a contender, he would still get paid—and paid well—by the Tigers for the remainder of this season. The daily bad mouthing that would surely last as long as Mags remains benched would go away. Oh, and if you’re wondering what $18 million could buy the Tigers next season, the best answer I can come up with is, “all but nine players in MLB.”
"I admit to you that Magglio had a rough April (.240) batting average," Boras said. "But if you want to talk about why his production is down in 2009, it's about one thing and one thing only: His home runs are down by seven. I submit to you that's not compelling information for declaring failure."
That’s it? This is all about seven home runs? Let’s go to the chart:
Good Mags vs. Awful Mags
| Year | Games | HR | Hits | Doubles | RBI | Avg. | OBP | Slg% | OPS | OPS+ | TB |
| 2008 | 146 | 21 | 178 | 32 | 103 | .317 | .376 | .494 | .869 | 127 | 277 |
| 2009 | 146* | 5 | 151 | 23 | 56 | .273 | .347 | .343 | .690 | 82 | 189 |
*2009 numbers based on 146 game pace
Clearly, Boras has issues comprehending multiple variables because there’s a lot more going on here than a reduction in home runs. How about the fact that Mags is on pace to drive in 47 fewer runs? What about the fact that he went from an OPS 27% above the league average to 18% below? Better yet, what about everything? Mags has clearly significantly regressed in virtually every measurable way. I would love to watch Boras try to sell Charles Barkley to an NBA team right now. I think it might go something like this, “the only difference between Charles Barkley now and Charles Barkley 15 years ago is that he’s pushing 350 pounds and can’t post-up--or defend--a flag pole. That’s it! Everything else is still in perfect condition. His elbows still bend. He can still put on his own uniform. Plus, he can say "Anything less would be uncivilized" with a British accent while riding a horse. How does $20 million per game sound?” Don’t get Boras started on "The Splendid Splinter." According to Scotty Baseball, the only thing keeping Ted Williams from starting in left field for the Red Sox is the fact that his head is frozen in a cryogenics lab in Arizona.
Lame jokes aside, Mags has been terrible this year. The Tigers were very, very smart four years ago to put a clause in his contract that would prevent them from having to pay an obviously diminished player $18 million in 2010 and $15 million in 2011. Those salaries would be guaranteed if Mags reaches 270 combined games between this year and last. There isn’t a math wizard on the planet who could successfully argue that Mags is worth that sort of money over the next two season. Boras, of course, is looking out for his own butt. He gets paid commission based on his clientele’s earnings. A five percent-cut (or whatever his rate is) of $33 million is a lot more money than a five percent-cut of $10 million (or however much Mags could sign for on the free agent market). That's a $1.15 million loss for Boras. So remember, the next time Boras impersonates a failing "Logic 101" student, it’s because he stands to lose money.
The only legitimate question here is whether the Tigers should release Mags or keep him benched until he can’t reach his contract kicker. The latter would allow the possibility of a return for the playoffs assuming a). the Tigers reach the playoffs and b). he has his act together by then. However, that could also be a public relations nightmare. As moronic as Boras sounded in the above article, he represents a lot of pretty important people in baseball. The Tigers don’t need him as an enemy. That’s why I think the Tigers should just release Mags. He could sign with a contender, he would still get paid—and paid well—by the Tigers for the remainder of this season. The daily bad mouthing that would surely last as long as Mags remains benched would go away. Oh, and if you’re wondering what $18 million could buy the Tigers next season, the best answer I can come up with is, “all but nine players in MLB.”
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Five prescriptions for an anemic offense
The Tigers need an upgrade at the back-end of the rotation like the NHL needs a new commissioner. Fortunately, there is an obvious internal candidate—Joel Zumaya—to bolster the rotation issues. Unfortunately, there is no such internal candidate to help fix what has become an anemic offense. The Tigers haven’t scored more than four runs in eight consecutive games. Even worse, they have averaged just 3.3 runs per games since May 28 (20 games). Seattle—the worst offensive team in the AL—averages nearly a half-run more per game that what the Tigers have managed since late-May. Not surprisingly, the combination of rotation issues and offensive futility has had a painful impact on the standings. The Tigers are just 10-15 in their last 25 games after starting 24-16. Something will need to be done—and done soon—if the Tigers are going to have a legitimate chance of beating Minnesota, Chicago, and a resurgent Cleveland for the division. On Monday, I presented Zumaya as a solution for the rotation. Let’s see what we can do for the offense…
Before I get started, I just want to point out how much easier it is for the rest of MLB to upgrade their offense. The Tigers have the misfortune of playing in the same division as the Chicago White Sox. The ChiSox have three perfect pieces for a team looking for an upgrade. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye—all members of the ChiSox—are like having a supermodel for a sister. It’s great for everyone else but there’s not much you can do with it. If I’m an NL team in contention, I would have Kenny Williams (White Sox GM) on speed dial. Anyhow, let’s see if we can find some players outside of the division who could be available at a reasonable price. Remember, teams can’t simply say, “I want Albert Pujols” when they’re looking to add a “bat.” Obviously, a trade partner needs to be out of playoff contention and the player needs to be old, in a contract-year, or both. Here are five in order of preference…
1). Adam Dunn
Dunn plays for the Nationals. They may threaten the mark for worst record in MLB history. I think it’s safe to say he is available. Dunn has one year left on his contract beyond this season and it’s at the reasonable price of $12 million. You would be surprised how difficult it is to find someone who meets the simple criteria of a). being worth trading for, b). playing for a bad team, and c). having a favorable contract. Dunn is one of the few. It helps that he is an impact player. He has been discussed amongst the Tigers fanbase quite a bit over the last few years mainly because he is a run-producer who doesn’t cost $100 million. Dunn was the target of some interesting comments by J.P. Ricciardi (Blue Jays GM) last year. Ricciardi basically said that Dunn’s lowly batting average and high strike out totals make him a player to avoid. The good news for the Tigers is that Ricciardi’s opinion is likely shared across baseball. That means that Dunn’s value should be relatively low for a middle-of-the-lineup stalwart. While Ricciardi chose to focus on strikeouts and batting average, I’m going to focus on walks, runs, RBIs, home runs, on-base percentage, and OPS. Over the last five years, Dunn has averaged 111 walks, 98 runs, 100 RBIs, 41 home runs, a .382 OBP, and a 133 OPS+. Those are Hall of Fame numbers. Since 2004, no player in MLB has more walks than Dunn and only Albert Pujols has more home runs (228-224). For those fearing a drop-off in production, he’s on pace to surpass all of those marks this season with the exception of runs; and he’s doing it while playing for a horrible team. In fact, Dunn has done most of his damage over the last six years with very little protection. Imagine how he might feel hitting in front of, or behind, Miguel Cabrera. Hopefully Dave Dombrowski can get something Dunn. (weee!)
2). Matt Holliday
Scott Boras will have his work cut out for him following the season. Holliday will be a free agent and he was set to virtually name his price on the open market. That was before his numbers tanked in Oakland. Holliday still has substantial name power so even in the midst of a disappointing ’09 campaign, the A’s will still make it hurt to trade for him. The important question is: how much will it hurt? Even though Holliday put up massive numbers in Colorado, his success away from Coors Field leaves no doubt that he isn't a one-venue pony. Plus, the arrival of the humidor in 2002 changed things quite a bit. In fact, Coors Field is no longer the top hitter’s park in baseball according to ESPN’s Park Factor. That distinction goes to the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. It didn’t help Holliday that he was traded to the Oakland A’s who play at the Oakland Coliseum which is one of the worst hitter’s parks in MLB. Holliday’s statistical plunge has no doubt been exacerbated by going from one extreme to the other in terms of ballparks. It's true that he has always hit substantially better at Coors Field than anywhere else. That might be cause for concern when considering whether to offer him $100 million or not, but I don’t think it should be much of a concern when trying to decide if he can hit away from Colorado. In the last three years, Holliday has put up road OPS+ marks of 116, 130, and 145, respectively. Holliday can hit anywhere. Hopefully, the Tigers contact Oakland before they figure that out.
3). Aubrey Huff
Huff has “Renteria Syndrome” which is a condition that spawns rapid fluctuations of inconsistency. Huff was a superstar last season with Baltimore when he hammered the American League—not the least of which was the Tigers—for 32 home runs and 108 RBIs. He makes just $8 million and he is in the last year of his contract. The Orioles have no chance in the stacked AL East. Huff has struggled this year with an OPS+ of 94 through 62 games. However, he would come cheap and he would give Miguel Cabrera some protection. Part of the gamble on Huff would be the hope that he would regain some of his ’08 form. If he could put up anything close to that, the Tigers would likely see a vast improvement in offensive production. Huff also has the added bonus of being a left-handed bat which is something the Tigers have needed since 1842—or thereabouts.
4). Derrek Lee
The Cubs are definitely in playoff contention but I don’t think they would be against moving Lee. I’m assuming, though, that they’d want something that would help them win the division. I don’t think there’s a whole lot the Tigers could offer in the name of everyday help for a playoff contending team. That ship sailed when they released Gary Sheffield. Then again, if they didn’t release Sheffield, we might not even be talking about this but I digress. Anyhow, unless the Cubs are interested in something like Marcus Thames, Jeff Larish and a prospect, I don’t think Lee is an option. There is the possibility of Aramis Ramirez getting moved to first base upon his return from the DL—grasping at straws here but I would think players coming back from a dislocated shoulder should probably not being diving on said shoulder at 3B—allowing Josh Vitters to take over at third base. I suppose that would make Lee expendable. Or, maybe they would be fine with someone like Jake Fox replacing Lee. Still, there would be the question of whether the Tigers have anything the Cubs want. Lee’s best days are in the rearview mirror but, like Huff, he is better than what we’ve got going on right now. Oh, did I mention he has a no-trade clause? I probably could’ve saved you two minutes by putting that in the first sentence.
5). Jason Giambi
This is the point when I started to wonder if it’s even worth making a trade to get a guy like Giambi. Bear with me for a minute. There’s no question that he’s a poor man’s Adam Dunn which likely means that J.P. Ricciardi would rather fight a polar bear than even consider bringing him to Toronto. Still, last year Giambi hit 32 bombs with 96 ribeyes with a very respectable 128 OPS+. Sure, he has struggled in his return to Oakland but considering what has happened to Matt Holliday, there might be something in the water out there (or maybe just a tough pitcher’s park). Giambi still draws mad-walks and he has hit 32+ home runs in each of his last three full seasons. He would probably come pretty cheap from an Oakland-team that flat-out stinks. He would be a free agent at the end of the season (Oakland has a club-option) so he pretty much fits all of the basic criteria for trade feasibility. He is a lefty-bat that would give the Tigers a different look in the middle of the lineup. The Tigers could probably get away with trading two or three mid-level prospects. I would actually be excited if the Tigers got this done. Yes, I am aware of how sad that statement sounds. Just imagine how I’d feel if any of the first three options went down.
Before I get started, I just want to point out how much easier it is for the rest of MLB to upgrade their offense. The Tigers have the misfortune of playing in the same division as the Chicago White Sox. The ChiSox have three perfect pieces for a team looking for an upgrade. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Jermaine Dye—all members of the ChiSox—are like having a supermodel for a sister. It’s great for everyone else but there’s not much you can do with it. If I’m an NL team in contention, I would have Kenny Williams (White Sox GM) on speed dial. Anyhow, let’s see if we can find some players outside of the division who could be available at a reasonable price. Remember, teams can’t simply say, “I want Albert Pujols” when they’re looking to add a “bat.” Obviously, a trade partner needs to be out of playoff contention and the player needs to be old, in a contract-year, or both. Here are five in order of preference…
1). Adam Dunn
Dunn plays for the Nationals. They may threaten the mark for worst record in MLB history. I think it’s safe to say he is available. Dunn has one year left on his contract beyond this season and it’s at the reasonable price of $12 million. You would be surprised how difficult it is to find someone who meets the simple criteria of a). being worth trading for, b). playing for a bad team, and c). having a favorable contract. Dunn is one of the few. It helps that he is an impact player. He has been discussed amongst the Tigers fanbase quite a bit over the last few years mainly because he is a run-producer who doesn’t cost $100 million. Dunn was the target of some interesting comments by J.P. Ricciardi (Blue Jays GM) last year. Ricciardi basically said that Dunn’s lowly batting average and high strike out totals make him a player to avoid. The good news for the Tigers is that Ricciardi’s opinion is likely shared across baseball. That means that Dunn’s value should be relatively low for a middle-of-the-lineup stalwart. While Ricciardi chose to focus on strikeouts and batting average, I’m going to focus on walks, runs, RBIs, home runs, on-base percentage, and OPS. Over the last five years, Dunn has averaged 111 walks, 98 runs, 100 RBIs, 41 home runs, a .382 OBP, and a 133 OPS+. Those are Hall of Fame numbers. Since 2004, no player in MLB has more walks than Dunn and only Albert Pujols has more home runs (228-224). For those fearing a drop-off in production, he’s on pace to surpass all of those marks this season with the exception of runs; and he’s doing it while playing for a horrible team. In fact, Dunn has done most of his damage over the last six years with very little protection. Imagine how he might feel hitting in front of, or behind, Miguel Cabrera. Hopefully Dave Dombrowski can get something Dunn. (weee!)
2). Matt Holliday
Scott Boras will have his work cut out for him following the season. Holliday will be a free agent and he was set to virtually name his price on the open market. That was before his numbers tanked in Oakland. Holliday still has substantial name power so even in the midst of a disappointing ’09 campaign, the A’s will still make it hurt to trade for him. The important question is: how much will it hurt? Even though Holliday put up massive numbers in Colorado, his success away from Coors Field leaves no doubt that he isn't a one-venue pony. Plus, the arrival of the humidor in 2002 changed things quite a bit. In fact, Coors Field is no longer the top hitter’s park in baseball according to ESPN’s Park Factor. That distinction goes to the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. It didn’t help Holliday that he was traded to the Oakland A’s who play at the Oakland Coliseum which is one of the worst hitter’s parks in MLB. Holliday’s statistical plunge has no doubt been exacerbated by going from one extreme to the other in terms of ballparks. It's true that he has always hit substantially better at Coors Field than anywhere else. That might be cause for concern when considering whether to offer him $100 million or not, but I don’t think it should be much of a concern when trying to decide if he can hit away from Colorado. In the last three years, Holliday has put up road OPS+ marks of 116, 130, and 145, respectively. Holliday can hit anywhere. Hopefully, the Tigers contact Oakland before they figure that out.
3). Aubrey Huff
Huff has “Renteria Syndrome” which is a condition that spawns rapid fluctuations of inconsistency. Huff was a superstar last season with Baltimore when he hammered the American League—not the least of which was the Tigers—for 32 home runs and 108 RBIs. He makes just $8 million and he is in the last year of his contract. The Orioles have no chance in the stacked AL East. Huff has struggled this year with an OPS+ of 94 through 62 games. However, he would come cheap and he would give Miguel Cabrera some protection. Part of the gamble on Huff would be the hope that he would regain some of his ’08 form. If he could put up anything close to that, the Tigers would likely see a vast improvement in offensive production. Huff also has the added bonus of being a left-handed bat which is something the Tigers have needed since 1842—or thereabouts.
4). Derrek Lee
The Cubs are definitely in playoff contention but I don’t think they would be against moving Lee. I’m assuming, though, that they’d want something that would help them win the division. I don’t think there’s a whole lot the Tigers could offer in the name of everyday help for a playoff contending team. That ship sailed when they released Gary Sheffield. Then again, if they didn’t release Sheffield, we might not even be talking about this but I digress. Anyhow, unless the Cubs are interested in something like Marcus Thames, Jeff Larish and a prospect, I don’t think Lee is an option. There is the possibility of Aramis Ramirez getting moved to first base upon his return from the DL—grasping at straws here but I would think players coming back from a dislocated shoulder should probably not being diving on said shoulder at 3B—allowing Josh Vitters to take over at third base. I suppose that would make Lee expendable. Or, maybe they would be fine with someone like Jake Fox replacing Lee. Still, there would be the question of whether the Tigers have anything the Cubs want. Lee’s best days are in the rearview mirror but, like Huff, he is better than what we’ve got going on right now. Oh, did I mention he has a no-trade clause? I probably could’ve saved you two minutes by putting that in the first sentence.
5). Jason Giambi
This is the point when I started to wonder if it’s even worth making a trade to get a guy like Giambi. Bear with me for a minute. There’s no question that he’s a poor man’s Adam Dunn which likely means that J.P. Ricciardi would rather fight a polar bear than even consider bringing him to Toronto. Still, last year Giambi hit 32 bombs with 96 ribeyes with a very respectable 128 OPS+. Sure, he has struggled in his return to Oakland but considering what has happened to Matt Holliday, there might be something in the water out there (or maybe just a tough pitcher’s park). Giambi still draws mad-walks and he has hit 32+ home runs in each of his last three full seasons. He would probably come pretty cheap from an Oakland-team that flat-out stinks. He would be a free agent at the end of the season (Oakland has a club-option) so he pretty much fits all of the basic criteria for trade feasibility. He is a lefty-bat that would give the Tigers a different look in the middle of the lineup. The Tigers could probably get away with trading two or three mid-level prospects. I would actually be excited if the Tigers got this done. Yes, I am aware of how sad that statement sounds. Just imagine how I’d feel if any of the first three options went down.
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