Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Top 13 (odds of going undefeated) week Six

The ACC has all but eliminated itself from National Championship contention. That is a good thing for college football fans outside of the ACC. Georgia Tech and Clemson provided the one-two knockout punch to Florida State and Virginia Tech and Florida State took care of Miami (FL). The Big XII has also been all but eliminated from National Championship contention. Thanks to Ohio State, Oregon, and USC, the three best teams in the Big XII have already lost. That leaves the Big Ten, Pac 10, SEC, and Big East as conferences with a shot at producing a representative in the National Championship game. It remains to be seen whether an undefeated Louisville or West Virginia team will be ranked in the top two of the BCS standings. My belief is that any team from the SEC, Big Ten, or Pac 10 that goes undefeated will finish ahead of either of the two Big East powers.

If Ohio State and Michigan enter their showdown undefeated, the winner will be in the Championship game. If Auburn, Georgia, or Florida goes undefeated, it will be in the Championship game. The same goes for USC. Oregon started the season ranked so low that it may be left out behind WVU or Louisville. Boise State is looking more and more like a team that will end up undefeated at the end of the year but that hardly matters in the grand scheme of things. Whereas I started the regular season with the belief that no more than one team would go undefeated in the regular season this year, I am starting to think there will be two at a minimum with the possibility of three (counting Boise State). My odds show just one team still but that could change significantly in the next three weeks.

Top 13
(odds of going undefeated)

1 Ohio State------27.27%
2 USC-------------19.05%
3 W. Virginia-----16.88%
4 Boise State-----16.62%
5 Louisville-------14.92%
6 Michigan-------10.16%
7 Auburn----------4.59%
8 Georgia----------4.06%
9 Florida-----------2.20%
10 Oregon----------1.26%
11 Rutgers----------0.46%
12 Missouri--------0.02%
13 Wake Forest----0.01%

Teams that dropped from last week’s list (along with pre-season rank in terms of odds): #19 Virginia Tech, #11 Iowa, #13 TCU, #25 Purdue

Biggest Jump (percentage): Ohio State (+9.09%), Boise State (+8.31%)

Current overall chance of undefeated team(s) (100%=1 undefeated team, 200%=2 undefeated teams etc.): 117.52%


Anonymous said...

I will be shocked if USC is undefeated at the end of the year, leaving a Big Ten versus Big East matchup for the BCS Championship almost a certainty. Talk about an exciting college football game. Tradition versus Newbloods. Two completely different styles of football with equally impressive results. Any guesses as to who would win? I have a hard time not picking the Big East.

Jake said...

The way Oregon and Cal have been playing and the way USC has played the last two weeks, I would also be surprised if they could pull it out. As far as the BCS Championship, there is a good chance the Big Ten and Big East produce two undefeated teams. Michigan vs. W. Virginia would be an awesome matchup. I would expect Michigan to beat Louisville pretty handily. Ohio State would probably win over either team. There is no question that those two Big East teams are good but the best matchup in terms of quality of game would be Michigan vs. WVU. Any other game would probably result in a Big Ten win by 7-10 points at a minimum. Hopefully we'll find out the answer in reality in a couple months.


Powered by Blogger