Simulated Gambling Final Installment

This week marks the end of a sad display of college football picking. As it stands, I’m four games above .500. Even if I get all nine of my picks this week correct, that would still put me below my expectations coming into the season. By the way, I guess Miami (FL) did have some fight left in it. Be forewarned; don’t ever bet against the Hurricanes when they have a chance to clinch a spot in the MPC Computers Bowl. I like the fact that college football has non-bowl games into December. It helps pass the time between the regular season and bowl season. It also proves that the whole argument about a playoff being too much of a time commitment to the student athlete is a bunch of hogwash. Although, it would be nice if one of these years, Army got competitive enough to make the Army/Navy game worth watching. There’s nothing worse than two mediocre teams playing a blowout.

Season record to date: 96-92-6



(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

CALIFORNIA -28.5 Stanford

Cal hasn’t been playing well having lost two in a row but Stanford is horrendous. Illinois might beat Stanford by 28.5.


Southern California -13 UCLA

Let’s just call this a reverse psychology pick. If USC wins in a blowout, then I get this pick right. If UCLA keeps it close, then I at least get to hold on to a Michigan National Championship for a few minutes longer.


TCU -18 Air Force

I don’t see anything on either team’s schedule that indicates this game should be an 18-point spread.

SAN JOSE STATE -5 Fresno State

Fresno State has had a lousy season but it has come on as of late. This should be a close game.

Troy -11 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

Florida International is terrible. It has lost most of its games this season by at least twenty points.


Georgia Tech -3 Wake Forest

Georgia Tech’s anemic offense should keep Wake in the game.

Florida -3 Arkansas

I think Arkansas matches up pretty well with Florida. The Gators have a hard time putting points on the board which means Arkansas doesn’t need to throw to win.

Oklahoma -3 Nebraska

If it weren’t for the “screw job” at Oregon, Oklahoma would be right up there in the BCS Championship talk. After last season’s debacle, I certainly didn’t expect the Sooners to be this good.

HAWAII -7.5 Oregon State

I’d like to see Hawaii play Alabama again. I know a team can look mighty impressive playing against “cupcakes” but Hawaii has been dropping 60 points every week.

Simulated Gambling Week 13

Although I do have something to play for, these last couple weeks will have a hollow feel to them. Simply hoping to finish above .500 is the equivalent of Miami (FL) going all out this week to secure a bowl bid. I’m sure the Miami players couldn’t care less about playing in the Burger King Bowl or wherever they’ll end up if they beat BC this week. Likewise, I have no interest in trying to put a good face on finishing a couple games over .500. This season has been a disappointment. I don’t think there is any doubt that parity ruled in college football this season. That certainly is not a good development for gamblers. However, it is a fantastic development for schools like Wake Forest, Arizona, Missouri, Kentucky, and Oregon State among others. There will be a lot of unfamiliar names participating in the 2006 Bowl Season.

Season record to date: 88-85-6



(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

Boston College -4 MIAMI (FL)

I’ve been going with the “Miami still has sweet athletes to keep the games close” reasoning for the latter part of the season. That has gotten me nothing. So, I’ll try going against Miami. BC is a good team. My only concern is that Miami has a chance to make a bowl game if it wins. I can’t imagine the motivation to just “make any bowl game” is too high right now.


Ohio -4 MIAMI (OH)

I love seeing banished coaches pop up someplace obscure only to have success. You can file Frank Solich’s name under that category. Ohio has been the best team in the MAC this season. Miami (OH) is just uncharacteristically bad this year. But consider that Miami has lost games by 2, 3, 3, and 3 points this season. It hasn’t exactly been uncompetitive.

TEXAS -13 Texas A&M

Texas A&M has lost by 4, 1, and 1 this season. The Aggies are six points from entering the Texas game undefeated. Records aside, Texas should roll in this game.

ARKANSAS PK Lsu

I’ll take Arkansas straight up playing at home. This game should be close though.

Air Force -10 UNLV

Air Force has disappointed after narrowly losing at Tennessee to start the season. UNLV isn’t a good team though so I’ll go with AF putting up a lot of points.

MARYLAND -1 Wake Forest

I have to give credit to Ralph Friedgen for having the Terrapins ready to play this year. But, I think Wake is the better team.

Oklahoma -5 OKLAHOMA STATE

For some inexplicable reason, Oklahoma gets zero respect from the odds-makers. I’ve made a killing off of Sooners games lately considering they are almost always favored by too little. This week is no different. The Sooners are 7-2 in their last nine games ATS (against the spread). I’m sticking with the hot hand.

New Mexico State -6 UTAH STATE

One thing I’ve been certain about all season is that Utah State is really bad. New Mexico State is just bad. The difference between really bad and bad should be at least six points.


Florida -10 FLORIDA STATE

FSU lost to Wake Forest 30-0. That might be the score of the year.

Brigham Young -11 UTAH

BYU has been killing teams too a la Oklahoma. BYU is 9-1-1 ATS this season. That has to be some sort of record. The Cougars should roll.

Cincinnati -4 CONNECTICUT

Only the Big East can have a team destroy the conference’s top team and then have that same team as mere four point favorites over Connecticut. I’ll take Cincinnati to not have a bad hangover from last week’s mauling of Rutgers.

Louisville -12 PITTSBURGH

If anyone has any doubts as to the merits of Pitt’s defense, re-watch the Backyard Brawl.


CLEMSON -5 South Carolina

Clemson kills bad teams and plays in tight games against any team with a pulse (with the exception of Ga. Tech). South Carolina has a pulse.


USC -7.5 Notre Dame

I love it how nobody remembers USC’s near losses to Arizona State, Washington State, and Washington. There is no question that USC is a good team but I would bet a substantial amount of money that Michigan would have its way with USC.

Boise State -3 NEVADA

Boise State has one more hurdle to finish undefeated and earn a bid to a BCS game. Winning at Nevada will be no small feat but I’m pretty sure it’s going to happen.

HAWAII -16 Purdue
When Hawaii is favored by 16 over Purdue, you know the Big Ten isn’t very deep. I just think a mid-tier Big Ten team should be able to hang within 16 points of Hawaii.

Simulated Gambling Week 12

I feel good about my picks this week. I have absolutely no reason to feel that way. It's just an irrational belief that this is finally the week that I will break through. I went with a lot of large-spread favorites which is risky but I think that teams like BYU, Hawaii, Navy and Boise State (at home) can put up 50+ this week. I knew the Ohio State/Michigan game would be something like six or seven but it still surprises me to see it in print. I will avoid making predictions on that game to preserve my own enjoyment come Saturday but I do think there is a better than 50/50 chance that this game will not result in Michigan losing by more than seven points.

Season record to date: 83-79-3


(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

BYU -25 New Mexico

I don't know how BYU got to be so dominant but they destroy every team they play. I wouldn't mind seeing a BYU-Hawaii match-up in a bowl game.

Rutgers -6.5 CINCINNATI

Rutgers is undefeated, right?

Virginia Tech -1.5 WAKE FOREST

Despite how bad Florida State had been playing, I was still shocked to see Wake Forest win 30-0. This game could go either way but this is a vote against Wake Forest going 10-1. Is that even possible? I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Missouri -14 IOWA STATE

Who hasn't beaten Iowa State by 14 points lately?

NAVY -31 Temple

I bet Navy is absolutely giddy at the thought of playing Temple.

NOTRE DAME -32 Army

This spread is a little harder to gage because there is the whole "respect for the academies" thing that could play into this late in the game. You don't necessarily want to be the guy who runs up the score against a service academy. But, I think Charlie Weiss is the guy to do that.

BOISE STATE -36.5 Utah State

Ian Johnson or no Ian Johnson, Boise State should crush Utah State.

OHIO STATE -7 Michigan

Really? Michigan was 30 seconds from winning last year. This year's team is so much better in every conceivable way. I guess we'll see how much better Ohio State is than last year.

LSU -27 Mississippi

LSU's "D" should keep be enough to cover the spread.

Arkansas -14 MISSISSIPPI STATE

I'm a little surprised at this line. Arkansas has been killing teams and Mississippi State is terrible.

Miami (FL) -2.5 VIRGINIA

Miami has been really bad but I don't think it's "lose to Virginia" bad.

BOSTON COLLEGE -7.5 Maryland

Maryland is no joke.

USC -6 California

Cal was obviously looking ahead to its showdown with USC. That may have cost the Bears a shot at the BCS Championship but that doesn't affect their chances against USC.

HAWAII -23.5 San Jose State

I'm on a role with these guys so I'm sticking with them until I lose.

Simulated Gambling Week 11

The ship is sinking fast. It’s amazing how much things can change in one week. I was dreaming of being 20 games over .500 just a few days ago. Now, I’m barely treading water. My best bet at finishing above .500 on the season is probably canceling this whole experiment yesterday. But that’s not going to happen because I have too much pride to go out like that. I’d rather finish below .500 than stop midway through just to preserve glory (if you want to call it that). Ty Cobb may be OK with pulling that stunt but I am not. Naturally, I’ll tackle this endeavor by picking a season-high 24 games. A lot can go wrong when you pick that many games so if you never see “Simulated Gambling” again, you’ll know what happened.


Season record to date: 70-68-3


(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

ILLINOIS-3 Purdue

I’ve got no compelling reason to take Purdue other than I think Purdue “should” win.

Michigan -18.5 INDIANA

If Lloyd keeps his starters in, Indiana will struggle to keep this game close.

Louisville -5.5 RUTGERS

Regardless of the outcome of this game, Rutgers is a good team. I just think Louisville wins pretty big.

Georgia Tech -15 NORTH CAROLINA

I don’t think North Carolina will be able to contain Calvin Johnson.

FLORIDA STATE -8.5 Wake Forest

This line is on name alone. There is no reason, whatsoever, that Wake Forest should be 8.5 underdogs to FSU.

Navy -9 EMU

Navy in another blowout.

ARKANSAS -6 Tennessee

Arkansas is starting to get some respect. I think this will be a close game decided by a field goal.

AUBURN -14 Georgia

Auburn hasn’t played a good game in a while. The Tigers should have no problem winning this game but Georgia could keep it relatively close.

WASHINGTON -18.5 Stanford

I don’t particularly like picking Washington because I always lose when I go with the Huskies. But, Stanford is terrible.

LSU -18 Alabama

This is a vote of confidence for Alabama’s defense to keep them from getting killed.

FLORIDA -14 South Carolina
SC is good enough to stick around.

COLORADO -8.5 Iowa State

I have no faith in Iowa State but I don’t see any reason why Colorado should win this game by 8.5 or more.

Minnesota PK MICHIGAN STATE

Minnesota killed Indiana last week. Indiana killed MSU two weeks ago. By the power of Grayskull (and the transitive property), I take Minnesota.

Notre Dame -11 AIR FORCE

I just don’t think any service academy can stick with Notre Dame’s skill on offense.

California -13 ARIZONA

I’ve been taking Cal lately without anything to show for it. This should finally be the week.

Boise State -13 SAN JOSE STATE

I am going to keep taking Boise State on the road until it pays off. I’m beyond the point of no return.


NEVADA -28.5 Utah State

This is a vote against Utah State.

OKLAHOMA -9.5 Texas Tech

Oklahoma has impressed me a bit with victories over Missouri and Texas A&M. However, I don’t think the Sooners are good enough to blow out Texas Tech.

CLEMSON -17.5 NC State

I don’t know how the odds-makers came to this line. NC State has shown nothing this year to think that they’ll lose by at least 17.5 points.

Texas -17 KANSAS STATE

I’m not impressed with Kansas State.

Oregon State PK UCLA
Oregon State and UCLA are clearly headed in different directions. OSU has all the momentum.

USC -8 Oregon

Oregon can stick with USC. The Trojans will probably pull it out but this will be fairly close.

HAWAII-35 Louisiana Tech

Hawaii destroys teams at home. This spread should be -50!

BYU -17.5 Wyoming

BYU is a hot team. I’ll try to get on board for a win or two.

Simulated Gambling week 10

At one point on Saturday, I was 9-4 and then everything fell apart. I finished with a semi-respectable 10-8. As always, I have an unsubstantiated feeling that this is the week that I will finally break out. Those of you that have followed along all season know otherwise. There will never be a breakout week. Too many crazy and unpredictable things happen in college football to get a read on games this late in the season. I can’t say I feel good about any pick that I make anymore.  Nonetheless, I’ve picked an MSR record 20 games this week. Maybe I’ll go 20-0 and get national recognition. Or, maybe I’ll continue to be terrible.


Season record to date: 64-54-3


(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

LOUISVILLE -2 West Virginia

I made a rule that I would never pick a Thursday night game again. Every week, I break that rule and every week I get it wrong. Why mess with a good thing? West Virginia is just playing better football right now. It has taken Louisville a while to adjust since Brian Brohm came back. I don’t think they’ll be ready to beat WVU.

Air Force -6.5 ARMY     

This is my weekly pick against Army

Boston College -3.5 WAKE FOREST     

BC is clearly the class of the ACC. They are one extremely close loss against Clemson away from being undefeated.

Navy -9 DUKE     

Navy should run all over Duke

Ohio -3.5 EASTERN MICHIGAN

Ohio is good. Eastern Michigan is not.

Kent -13.5 BUFFALO

Kent is good. Buffalo is not.

Oklahoma -2 TEXAS A&M     

I’m surprised that Oklahoma’s drubbing of Missouri didn’t make this spread a little higher. The Sooners should have too much talent for the Aggies.

Hawaii -26 UTAH STATE     

Hawaii has been killing teams. They have to lead the country in most offensive categories. Utah State is in for a bad weekend.

TEXAS TECH -17.5 Baylor     

I was slightly impressed with how Baylor played Texas for a half. We’ll see how this turns out but I just expect some fight out of the Bears.

Louisiana State -3.5 TENNESSEE     

LSU is a good football team. I don’t think there’s a team in the country that outclasses them. But, Tennessee should win this game at home.

Arkansas -2 SOUTH CAROLINA     

Arkansas has been masquerading as an SEC elite. We’ll find out a little more about them this weekend in Columbia, SC.

Nevada -10 IDAHO

Idaho is susceptible to being blown out. Ten points isn’t a lot to ask for. Come on, Nevada!


WASHINGTON STATE -16 Arizona
     
I’m not sure that Wazzou is a team that blows people out. I guess I’ll know after Saturday. I do know that Wazzou is the third best team in the Pac-10.

Nebraska -7 MISSOURI     

Nebraska hasn’t earned a line this generous. This game is a toss-up straight-up.

TEXAS -20 Oklahoma State

OSU has been putting up big-time points. I just have a feeling they can stick around for a bit.

WISCONSIN -7.5 Penn State

I don’t even know if Wiscy is going to win this game. The Badgers haven’t beaten anyone. Penn State has played Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Michigan. Penn State won’t roll over.

MARSHALL -9 Tulane

Marshall shouldn’t be a nine-point favorite over anyone.

CALIFORNIA -17 Ucla

I feel like a fool for taking UCLA over WSU last week. Hopefully I can make amends this week.

AUBURN -29.5 Arkansas State

If Auburn can’t beat Arkansas State at home by more than 30, then Auburn really isn’t as good as I thought coming into the year. I’ve started to have my doubts about Auburn with all of their close wins over weak SEC competition.

Virginia Tech -3 MIAMI

I’m bound to get a Miami pick right sooner or later.

Simulated Gambling Week Nine

Last week didn’t work out for me too well as I only mustered a 9-8 record. I thought I might have more success if I took the home team in favorable lines. Now I’m back to my “bread and butter” with 15 road teams. This is the largest collection of games that I’ve picked in any week thus far as I attempt to make up for all of my disappointment in just one day. My summary for each pick will be shorter due to time constraints.

Season record to date: 54-46-3



(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

Clemson -4 VIRGINIA TECH

Va. Tech is terrible. I made a rule to never pick another Thursday night game again but I had to come out of retirement for this one game. Clemson should roll.


TULSA -15 Utep

UTEP isn’t that bad.


Notre Dame -13 NAVY

I expect Notre Dame to dominate the line of scrimmage which means Navy won’t be able to run. That spells doom for the Midshipmen and so does their weak secondary.


Brigham Young University -8 AIR FORCE

BYU has been killing teams but I don’t foresee Air Force going down without a fight.


TULANE -5.5 Army

I’ve been on a roll picking against Army. Only Temple, Utah State and Texas A&M (see below) couldn’t cover at -5.5 against Army.


Texas A&M -4.5 BAYLOR

Texas A&M scares me because they barely beat Army. But, they are the better team. Odds are the better team will win by at least five points.


WASHINGTON PK Arizona State

I could get burned by taking ASU this late in the season but I expect a letdown from Washington after barely losing to Cal last week.


KENT -7 Ohio

Kent is a very good MAC team but so is Ohio. This one should be close.


NEVADA -18 New Mexico State

New Mexico State can put points on the board. I expect many points from both sides which should keep this baby close.


Kentucky -1 MISSISSIPPI STATE

This just comes down to my feeling that Kentucky is better than MSU.


SAN JOSE STATE -9 Louisiana Tech

San Jose State has a good record but they’ve had close wins over bad teams.


GEORGIA TECH -6 Miami (FL)

This is a vote for Miami’s pride. They’ll play hard.


MISSOURI -2.5 Oklahoma

I might live to regret this pick but I think OU’s defense will be too tough for a good Missouri team.


UCLA -1 Washington State

Home teams in the Pac-10 usually play well. This will be the last game UCLA game that I pick if I don’t get it right.


Vanderbilt -9 DUKE

Vandy isn’t bad. Duke is. I’m hoping that comes out to a ten point win for Vandy.


Auburn -18.5 MISSISSIPPI

In recent years, Auburn has crushed weaker SEC teams.


FLORIDA -14 Georgia

Georgia played Tennessee extremely tough for two quarters. They still have a good defense. I think they’ll keep it close (or get killed early).


Southern Cal -11.5 OREGON STATE

I decided not to pick any USC games this year because they’ve been so inconsistent. But, I saw Oregon State earlier in the year at Boise State and they looked atrocious. If they can’t whoop Oregon State, then USC is nowhere close to the second best team in the nation.

Simulated Gambling Week Eight

Weak! My weekly picks post should be shut down and declared a hazard to the health of my readers. At this point in the season, I should be at least 20 games over .500. I am taking drastic action to remedy the situation. I have picked a season-high 17 games with the hope that I’ll shed the failed expectations for that of what I intended when the season began. Some of you may have noticed that my “moneymaker” tends to be road teams that have been undeservingly slighted by the odds-makers just by simply being a road team. However, the last few weeks haven’t helped much. So, I’ve actually picked nine home teams this week. Hopefully this diverse pool of picks will pay off. Wish me luck (unless you hate me)!


Season Record: 45-38-3


(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

West Virginia -21 CONNECTICUT

I might live to regret this pick. WVU seems to sleepwalk through games. But, I think it could beat Connecticut by 21 on “accident”.


Louisville -16.5 SYRACUSE

Syracuse deserves some “props” for being better than expected. However, I think Brian Brohm will be looking to establish Louisville’s explosive offense in the tune-up to the Big East game of the year against West Virginia.


ARKANSAS -15.5 Mississippi

Arkansas has undergone a makeover since its embarrassing home-loss to USC in the season-opener. This is a team that puts up big-time points. Mississippi stinks.


NOTRE DAME -12.5 Ucla

Notre Dame’s defense scares me a bit but UCLA won’t be able to stop Notre Dame at home. A fourth quarter score by UCLA may do me in but if that doesn’t happen, then I think I’ve got this one.


AUBURN -32 Tulane

This smells like a 50+ point game for Auburn.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS -31 Temple

Do you think Garrett Wolfe is going to be pissed after laying an egg against Western Michigan last week? Temple is far and away the worst team in D-1 football. This could be a 300 yard day for him.


MICHIGAN -15 Iowa

Michigan usually switches to ball control mode with a two touchdown lead in the second half. That leads me to believe that Iowa may stick around just long enough to keep this one under 15 points.


Texas -6.5 NEBRASKA

Nebraska already proved that it can’t hang with the big boys when it was smoked by USC. Texas is a “big boy”. Texas is also in the unenviable position of having to impress the computers. It’ll try to score as many points as possible.


CLEMSON -8 Georgia Tech

Who would’ve thought that this would be the game of the year in the ACC? I certainly didn’t. To be honest, I’m actually glad to see some new blood after Florida State, Miami (FL) and Virginia Tech had been the dominant teams in their conference(s) (ACC and Big East). Georgia Tech is too good and Clemson is too flaky for this to be a blow out.


Oregon -3.5 WASHINGTON STATE

What’s up with the Cougars getting some love every week by the odds-makers? The lock of the century was last week when Cal was only a 7.5 point favorite over WSU. This is pretty close to a lock but I won’t go that far.


Texas Christian University -11 ARMY

Army played TCU tough two years ago. That doesn’t mean much to me. TCU should smoke the Black Knights.


Miami (FL) -17.5 DUKE

People need to remember that this is still Duke football! I don’t care how many players are suspended from Miami. Duke scored a combined ZERO points against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Richmond. All three of those teams are terrible.


PITTSBURGH -6.5 Rutgers

This is just a pick for “Rutgers putting up a fight at the very least.” I don’t know who is going to win this game but I haven’t seen anything that tells me that Rutgers can’t play with Pittsburgh. I would love to see the Scarlet Knights win.

CALIFORNIA -23 Washington

I may pay for this pick and, really, you could make an argument for either team. However, the Pac-10 has more meaningless fourth quarter points scored than any conference. Even if Washington gets smoked, there is a decent chance that it’ll score a few points in the fourth quarter to cover. Plus, Washington isn’t terrible.

South Carolina-3 VANDERBILT

Vanderbilt is a decent, possibly bowl bound team. South Carolina is better. I’ll take the “better” team -3 in just about every match-up. If a team wins, odds are it’ll win by more than three.

OKLAHOMA STATE -3 Texas A&M

Texas A&M beat a very good Missouri team last week. Oklahoma State showed some life last week too but still gave up 32 points to Kansas. Texas A&M “should” win this game.

FLORIDA STATE -9.5 Boston College

I’m pretty sure I know the three best teams in the ACC and none of them are Florida State. Ironically, one of those teams is BC who happens to be a 9.5 underdog to Florida State. Go figure. I’ll take BC.

Simulated Gambling Week Seven

I just found out over the weekend about a bill passed in congress that will essentially eliminate almost all forms of online gambling. So, if you’re planning on making money off of my picks, you’ll have to a) move to Las Vegas, or b) find yourself a bookie. I managed to claw through another week of college football with a decent 7-5-1 record. Hopefully my picks this week will be better than that. Despite being eight games over .500 for the season, I am disappointed with the results thus far. I expected to be a little better.

Season record to date: 40-32-2


(Home team in CAPS; My pick in Bold)

NAVY -2 Rutgers

If Rutgers is wondering whether it is being taken seriously across the country, this line says the answer is no. Navy isn’t bad. The Midshipmen run a difficult offense to defend. Rutgers comes in to this game with one of the top rushing attacks in college football. The over/under on total combined passing yards in this game should be around 200. But, Rutgers should be too much for Navy to handle.

TEXAS A&M PK Missouri

If Missouri is wondering whether it is being taken seriously cross the country, this line says the answer is no. Missouri is a good team. It proved that by smoking Texas Tech last week. I would be surprised if Mizzou doesn’t win this game.

AUBURN -2.5 Florida

If Florida is wondering whether it is being taken seriously across the country, this line says the answer is no. Florida is almost halfway through the most difficult schedule in college football. It has passed its first two tests against Tennessee and LSU. Auburn looked every bit as good as Florida until last week when the Tigers were pummeled at home by Arkansas. I’ll take Florida to win against the spread and straight up.

California -7.5 WASHINGTON STATE

If California is wondering whether it is being taken seriously across the country, this line says the answer is no. California should destroy Washington State. I don’t have much else to say about this game.

Boise State -21 NEW MEXICO STATE

I can finally use a different sentence to start one of these summaries. Boise State is undoubtedly a different team on the road but it still managed to crush Utah at Utah last week. By the way, that Utah +4 line should go down as the worst line in college football history. New Mexico State is very bad. I’ll take Boise to trounce on the road.

Maryland -2 VIRGINIA

I knew Virginia was bad this year but I didn’t know that it was ten points worse than East Carolina. Not knowing that cost me a game last week. If Virginia truly is that bad, then Maryland should take this game by at least two points. This isn’t a vote for Maryland rather a vote against Virginia.

CLEMSON -43 Temple

Temple is bad. If Clemson doesn’t show mercy, this line should be good for Clemson even at -50.

WISCONSIN -10.5 Minnesota

Wisconsin is a good team but Minnesota is almost a mirror image of Wisconsin. I can’t see this game being a blow out. With a win, Wisconsin will remain on pace for a surprising New Year’s Day bowl game.

Michigan -6.5 PENN STATE

I thought about taking this pick off the board when it was discovered that Mario Manningham would not play in this game. However, if Michigan’s defense shows up, it should win by more than 6.5 points. I expect PSU to play its best game of the year so this pick could come back to haunt me.


Virginia Tech -2.5 BOSTON COLLEGE

This pick just comes down to my belief that Va. Tech is better than BC. There isn’t much else to say about this game.


CONNECTICUT -5 Army

This is a pick against Army, not for Connecticut. I’ve been about 50/50 with Army picks this year. Let’s hope I have learned something.

OREGON -10.5 Ucla

Without Ben Olson, UCLA will have its hands full at Oregon. I wouldn’t have touched the initial line which was something like Oregon -7 with Olson healthy. Oregon should relish the chance to come home after getting embarrassed by California. The Ducks should bounce back with a bunch of points.

Simulated Gambling Week Six

After two miserable weeks of picking games, I bounced back pretty well last week (8-4-1). This week’s slate of games features some pretty favorable lines. All I can hope for is that the weather holds up where these games are being played and that the coaches of the teams I pick don’t all of a sudden show mercy for outmanned opponents. As tempted as I am to take Michigan to clobber Michigan State, I am unveiling a new rule this week; I will never pick a Michigan State game again. Those cats are just way too unpredictable. Plus, should Michigan State pull off the upset of the century this weekend, the last thing I need is to get a double whammy by losing one of my picks. That would be too much to take.

Season record to date: 33-27-1


(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

Louisville -29 MIDDLE TENNESSEE     

I thought Middle Tennessee was going to cover against Oklahoma earlier this year. Boy was I wrong. After a 59-0 drubbing by the Sooners, this line seems to favor Louisville.

Pittsburgh -6 SYRACUSE

Pittsburgh is the kind of team that either loses, or wins big. If you’re equal to or better than Pittsburgh, you will win. If you are worse than Pittsburgh, you will get smoked. Syracuse is worse than Pittsburgh.

TEXAS -3.5 Oklahoma     

I think Texas has more depth than Oklahoma and a more potent offense. I wouldn’t be shocked by anything that happens in this game but Oklahoma has struggled too much on “O” against good defenses so I’ll take Texas.

Virginia +6.5 EAST CAROLINA

Virginia pasted Duke last week. That doesn’t say too much but I think this team is getting better. It may not win this game but it’s difficult to think that Virginia will get blown out by ECU.

South Carolina -5.5 KENTUCKY

South Carolina is due for a blow out sooner or later. Kentucky gave up a million points to Central Michigan last week. SC’s defense should stifle Kentucky’s offense.      

Missouri +4.0 TEXAS TECH

From what I’ve seen thus far, Missouri is better than Texas Tech. So, it only makes sense to take the Tigers +4.

CALIFORNIA -6 Oregon

California hasn’t beaten Oregon by more than one point since 1991. It doesn’t seem like this is the year for that to change. Oregon is good. So is Cal. It should be close.

Tennessee -1 GEORGIA

In all likelihood, Tennessee has a better team than Georgia. The Bulldogs get this game at home and they get Joe Tereshinski back from injury. I don’t think either of those factors is enough to go with Georgia.

BOISE STATE -33 Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech just got slaughtered by Clemson. In fact, the Bulldogs have lost all three of its D-1 games this year by at least 31 points. None of those teams it lost to can hold a candle to Boise State at home. This one should get ugly early.

HAWAII -7 Nevada

I was all set to take Nevada in this game until I looked up the history. Check out the last three times Nevada has played at Hawaii:

2004 Hawaii 48 Nevada 26
2002 Hawaii 59 Nevada 34
2000 Hawaii 37 Nevada 17

Now check out the last three times they played at Nevada:

2005 Nevada 38 Hawaii 28
2003 Nevada 24 Hawaii 14
2001 Nevada 28 Hawaii 21

It seems to me that it doesn’t matter how good either team is rather where the game is played. They are at Hawaii this year. Let’s see if this trend continues.

AIR FORCE -2.5 Navy

If there’s a team that knows how to play Navy defensively, it’s probably Air Force. Also, I doubt Navy would’ve finished anywhere near one point of Tennessee in Knoxville.

AUBURN -15 Arkansas

When Auburn plays a weaker SEC team at home, things get ugly for the opposition. Auburn burned me last week but they were at South Carolina and got bamboozled when Steve Spurrier unveiled a new mobile quarterback.

West Virginia -20.5 MISSISSIPPI

I do not have a lot of confidence in Mississippi State’s ability to stop WVU’s spread running game. I fear that the Mountaineers might be getting bored of playing such inferior competition but they will get up for a road SEC game even it is just MSU.

Simulated Gambling Week Five

At this point, if you‘re still betting on my picks you’re either a) related to me, b) insane, or c) not fond of money. I’m sure there are a few people out there in each category but the vast majority of you don’t fall into any of the three categories and thus should not bet on my picks. That said; I’m making a vow to my readers that I will finish above .500 on the season. Stick with me if not with your money, at least with your hearts and souls. While I’ve wound up on the bad side of .500 the last two weeks with my picks, the games I picked were picks I would make every time. Things haven’t worked out but I have a feeling they will this week and beyond.  So, here’s another chance for my relatives, my insane friends, and my ludicrously rich readers to make some money.


Season record to date: 25-23


(Home team in CAPS; My pick in Bold)

Auburn -13.5 SOUTH CAROLINA

With Kenny Irons returning to the backfield, Auburn should regain its dominating form. South Carolina will have a difficult time putting up points against Auburn’s “D” while Auburn will probably not have a hard time putting up points against SC.

MICHIGAN STATE -26.5 Illinois     

After gift-wrapping a victory for Notre Dame and destroying any chance of a UM/MSU Battle of the Unbeaten Showdown, MSU can go one of two directions. 1) MSU can take out its frustrations against an awful Illinois team or 2) implode as they always do. Going with option one might be a bit risky but Illinois is just too bad to not pick this game.

SYRACUSE -6 Wyoming     

I don’t know where the sudden respect for Syracuse came from but this line shocked me. Wyoming is not Boise State but Syracuse is no Cincinnati. I’ll take Wyoming to keep this close. In fact, I’d be surprised if it lost this game.

ARMY -11 Rice     

Why is Army ever favored by 11 points? Army is one of the worst five teams in D-1. Rice is just as bad but how does that merit +11?

Idaho -2.0 UTAH STATE

Idaho is a bad team. But, I’m confident that Utah State is even worse. Utah State has scored seven points in four games. I mean, that has to be at typo, right? Utah State hasn’t scored a single point in three games. They’ll have to double their season point total just to have a shot at winning this game. Stranger things have happened but I have to go Idaho on this one.

California -8.5 OREGON STATE

Any time California is involved in a Pac-10 shootout with a team not named USC or Oregon, it should be a shoe-in to win by at least ten. Arizona State is a much better team that Oregon State and Cal blew out ASU last week.

LOUISIANA STATE -31.5 Mississippi State     

This game makes me a little nervous but Mississippi State is really bad. It will have to play much better than it has all season to cover the spread. LSU could play an average game and cover. So, I guess I’m hoping MSU doesn’t find itself this week.

VIRGINIA TECH -9.5 Georgia Tech     

I was surprised to see Virginia Tech favored by this much over a good Georgia Tech team considering Virginia Tech’s average offense and last week’s struggle against a weak Cincinnati team.

Michigan -9 MINNESOTA

If Michigan keeps running Mike Hart into stacked lines, then we’ll likely see more close battles like last week’s game against Wisconsin. If, however, Michigan makes defenses pay through the passing game, Michigan should easily beat Minnesota by nine points. I hope the U of M coaching staff learned a lesson last week.

Tennessee -12.5 MEMPHIS

No matter the opponent, Tennessee is never a sure bet to blow out the opposition. Memphis is about as bad as Tennessee’s opponents get. This game makes me a little nervous. Remember, the Vols barely beat Air Force at home 31-30. I’m picking Tennessee’s “D” to dominate Memphis.

LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE -7 Eastern Michigan

This is another Army/Rice spread. What has Lafayette done to deserve a touchdown spread against EMU? Both of these teams are bad. This should be a close one.

Oregon -1.5 ARIZONA STATE

Arizona State embarked on its annual meltdown last week against California. Arizona State loves to pound bad teams early in the year before getting beat down by the Pac-10 elite. Oregon is just as good as California which does not bode well for ASU.

UTAH -4 Boise State     

Since when was it common knowledge that Utah is better than Boise State? I mean, if two teams are equal, the spread usually goes -3 to the home team. A -4 spread makes me think that Vegas thinks Utah is a better team. I disagree.

Simulated Gambling Week Four

Last week was my worst week by far. I came very close in quite a few games but that doesn’t do any good when a spread is involved. The bummer of it is that I looked over my picks again and I’d probably make the same picks next week. You can only pour so much knowledge into these picks because the rest is up to “luck”. That’s why this is “Simulated Gambling” and not “Gambling”.

I’ll leave up to you, the reader, to choose which direction you’re going to go after my 3-7 effort last week. You can A) jump ship and stop reading or B) stay the course and cite my 21-17 record thus far as reason to stick with me. I won’t blame you either way. In fact, I would choose “A” if I were you. But, for those of you that have more confidence in me than I do and chose “B”, here are my picks for the week….

Season record to date: 21-17

(Home teams in CAPS; My picks in Bold.)


Louisville -13.5 KANSAS STATE

Granted, the spread for this game would be closer to 25 if Michael Bush and Brian Brohm weren’t MIA. However, Louisville has plenty of talent to win by two touchdowns.


NAVY -4.5 Tulsa

The question about this game is whether Tulsa knows how to stop Navy’s offense. If a team doesn’t know how to play Navy defensively, Navy kills them. Just ask Stanford. We’ll find out on Saturday if Tulsa looked at enough film.


Ucla -3 WASHINGTON

UCLA has about a 10% chance of beating USC this year. However, I think they have about a 75% chance of beating Washington by at least three.


Central Michigan -4 EASTERN MICHIGAN

Central Michigan left an impression on me with a close loss to BC and a somewhat-close loss to Michigan. Eastern Michigan's strength is the gimmick play. That’s not a good sign.


WYOMING -1 Air Force

While everyone else has played three games, Air Force has played one. That lone game was a one-point loss (and easily could have been a win) at Tennessee. Something tells me Wyoming would’ve lost to Tennessee by double digits. I’m going with Air Force.


West Virginia -21 EAST CAROLINA

Watching Maryland try to stop West Virginia’s offense was brutal. Pat White and Steve Slaton would score thirty on any team. Remember, that dominating Georgia bulldog defense that has only surrendered 12 points in three games this season gave up 38 points to WVU in the Sugar Bowl just nine months ago.


Usc -21 ARIZONA

LSU destroyed Arizona. USC usually dominates teams in a way that LSU could only dream of. If USC gets lazy, Arizona will cover. So, I guess this is a vote for USC not being lazy.


BOISE STATE -14 Hawaii

The last two times Hawaii has played at Boise State, it lost 69-3 and 58-31. The last time Boise State played at home, it beat Oregon State mercilessly. So, I’m going with history.


Oklahoma State PK HOUSTON

I will be having nightmares of Kevin Kolb when I go to sleep on Friday night. Houston has had weak wins this year but there’s something about Kolb that makes Houston a little scary. Oklahoma State should have the better athletes and should win. I’m just hoping I don’t have nightmares of Kolb on Saturday night too. That would mean I lost.


Notre Dame -4 MICHIGAN STATE

Michigan State has won seven of nine against Notre Dame. That fact has gotten thrown around in the media lately but I don’t think people understand how unbelievable that is. Seven out of nine!? Michigan has won four of nine against Notre Dame. This game will be a shootout but I think there’s a good chance it’ll be decided by three points or less which would mean I win no matter what.

Simulated Gambling Week 3

Week two didn’t go nearly as well as week one. I did finish 8-7 but I should have done better. I picked games that I shouldn’t have picked. I need to learn to differentiate between games that I “think” might go a certain way and games that I’m almost positive will go a certain way. Last week, I failed to make this distinction and my results suffered. This week, my total number of picks are down which should mean my success will be up.

Also, I noticed that “bad” lines usually get corrected a bit over the week so the best time to make picks is before the corrections occur. Thus, I’ll be making my picks on Monday or Tuesday from now on. I encourage anybody who puts “real” money on games to follow my lead by picking early in the week. For instance, Louisville was a 38 point favorite on Monday of last week. By Friday, it was a 40.5 favorite. Two points can be the difference between making money and losing money. I understand that things can happen during the week like Drew Tate unexpectedly getting hurt. However, I’m guessing that might happen once or twice over an entire season.

Season record to date: 18-10

(Home teams in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

Boise State -8 WYOMING

I know I mentioned in this same spot last week that Boise St. isn’t as good this season as past seasons. However, I thing I was wrong. They went down 14-0 early to Oregon State and still managed to blast the Beavers. Boise State was so good that I was left thinking that the Beavers have the worst defense in D-1 football. I guess it’s possible that they do but I’m going to give the credit to Boise State’s “O” until it’s proven otherwise.

WASHINGTON STATE -13.5 Baylor

Washington State is a high scoring team. Baylor is not a high scoring team and doesn’t have a good defense. That should mean a Wazzou victory by more than two touchdowns.

NOTRE DAME -7 Michigan

I picked Penn State +7.5 last week against Notre Dame because of my respect for Penn State and not because I didn’t respect Notre Dame. In hindsight, Penn St. just isn’t that good. Plainly put, Penn State is no Michigan. I find myself looking at a similar line but I will not be deterred because Michigan is a good football team.

LOUISVILLE -5 Miami (FL)

I love Louisville. I love how they pound weaker opponents. I love how they throw the ball because it works. I hope Louisville makes the jump to “major” status at some point. However, I don’t think I’m making a bold statement by saying that every player on Miami was a better recruit than every player on Louisville. This game will be close just like last season but if Louisville wins, it shouldn’t be by more than five.

Fresno State -4 WASHINGTON

I must admit that I’m a little surprised by this line. I think the oddsmakers are hoping that average Joe football fan sees “Fresno” and “Washington” and thinks in historical terms. However, I think the average fan knows better. Washington hasn’t been good for a while now. Fresno plays every team tough whether it’s USC, Oregon, or another top-tier team. If Fresno plays to it potential, it will win by at least a touchdown.

Texas -28 RICE

It looks to me like Rice is getting some respect here. I was shocked to see the line lower than -30. Texas will not be happy coming off a season-derailing loss to Ohio St. Rice will pay the price.

Arizona State -9 COLORADO

Colorado is a little better than people probably think after losing to Montana State and Colorado State to start the season. However, the Buffs do not match up with ASU’s high-powered offense. I mean, Colorado scored ten points against Montana State!!! ASU will put up points. Unless Dan Hawkins can somehow get the turf painted gold, Colorado is in big trouble.

USC -18.5 Nebraska

Nebraska is the poor team’s USC. The Huskers have good players and a pass-happy offensive philosophy. Unfortunately, the difference between USC and a poor team’s USC is at least three touchdowns. If there’s ever a time for Nebraska to make a statement, it’s this week. I might be tempted to take Nebraska if this game was in Lincoln but it’s not.

Texas A&M -27 Army

I can’t say I know for certain how good Texas A&M is but I do know that Army is terrible. I also know that I took the Aggies in a big spread last week and they came through. This is not for you, Bobby Ross!

Missouri -12.5 NEW MEXICO

Missouri blasted Mississippi last week. I think Mississippi is slightly better than New Mexico. That alone should be enough for Mizzou to cover. However, I think Mizzou is actually a little better than people think.

Simulated Gambling Week 2

Last week, I began an experiment to see if I could successfully pick select college football games against the spread (ATS). The results were pretty good. I went 10-3. I am going to pass on picking NFL games for the time being. The phrase “any given Sunday” isn’t “any given Saturday” for a reason. The NFL is too unpredictable even when you’ve seen all the teams play. It’s almost impossible to get a feel to start a season. So, this week I’ll be making only college picks again. I liked my picks a lot more last week than I do this week. Some of the lines earlier in the week were much nicer than they are today. Nonetheless, these are games that I would bet on if I were a gambler:

Season record to date: 10-3


BOISE ST. -8 Oregon St. (Thursday Night)

Boise St. plays better at home but it lost to an average Oregon St. team on the road last year by three. As far as I know, Boise St. was better last year and Oregon St. was worse last year. Boise St. should not win this game by more than eight, if at all.


Pittsburgh -8 CINCINATTI (Friday Night)

Nobody knows for sure how good Pittsburgh is. It handled Virginia last week in a surprise. Tyler Palko is now a veteran quarterback which can sometimes be all the difference. I guess you can file me under the “Pittsburgh is for real this year” crowd.


Louisville -40.5 TEMPLE

I’m starting to think I should make my picks earlier in the week. This line started out at -38. Now it’s at a less desirable -40.5. Still, Temple is really bad and Louisville loves to punish bad teams.

Auburn -20 MISSISSIPPI STATE

Road games in big-time conferences like the SEC AND Big Ten can be trap games even against below average teams. However, in the past few years since Auburn’s resurgence began, it has blasted bad teams. Mississippi St. will be forced to start a redshirt freshman at QB. I’ll stick with the trend and take Auburn.


MICHIGAN STATE -25.5 Eastern Michigan

If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, and try again. Michigan State laid an egg against Idaho last week in terms of the point spread. I’m going to chalk that up to first game rust and go with the Spartan offense picking it up this week.

Iowa -18.5 SYRACUSE

Syracuse currently has a ten-game losing streak. Iowa generally pounds bad teams. It is my hope that Syracuse doesn’t pick this week to buck that trend. Iowa was a bit shaky against Montana last week but there were a lot of shaky performances and Montana is a good D-2 program.

NOTRE DAME -8 Penn State

I was a bit surprised at how little press Penn St. has received coming into the season. Granted, it lost some key players but this is a team with talent all over the place. South Bend is usually not the kind of place a young quarterback wants to make his road debut at so things could be tough early. However, Penn St. will fight hard.

LSU -15.5 Arizona

I thought Arizona was going to be a little better this year with Willie T. at QB but last week’s unimpressive win over BYU has me thinking other things. Willie T. will score big-time points in the Pac-10 but I’m guessing LSU puts the stop on him in Baton Rouge.

Indiana -3.5 BALL ST.

I’m going with the hot hand. The Hoosiers stepped up for me last week and covered the spread. I like them to do it again.

TENNESSEE -20 Air Force

This line reeks of respect for Air Force. There is no reason for Air Force to be anywhere near -20 especially after Tennessee proved last week that they’re out for blood. I could be wrong as always but Tennessee should cruise.

TEXAS -2.5 Ohio State

In a game like this, I look at the QB position. Texas has a new guy who has only faced North Texas. Ohio St. has Troy Smith who has faced everyone. The Buckeyes should score touchdowns this year whereas they settled for field goals last year. This is going to be a helluva game.

Texas Tech -7 UTEP

This line is out of respect for Mike Price. Texas Tech runs up the score against weaker teams. Price has rejuvenated the UTEP program but I have to think over a full game, the Red Raiders are good for seven more points at least.

TEXAS A&M -21 Louisiana Lafayette

I’m starting to wonder if Dennis Franchione will get the A&M program to the next level. It was supposed to happen already. Nonetheless, Louisiana Lafayette is not good. A&M should cover.

SOUTH FLORIDA -20 Florida International

South Florida is good. I’m hoping that nobody else knows this. It crushed Louisville last year. This should be a blow out. I’m a little nervous about this one.

MICHIGAN -28.5 Central Michigan

I’m surprised that CMU’s showing against BC didn’t earn them a more generous line. CMU is the kind of team that comes at you all game. That means it’ll likely score meaningless fourth quarter points. Nothing ruins more bets than meaningless fourth quarter points.

Simulated Gambling Week 1

Last year at this time, I was about to embark on a season long “slugfest” with a coin in a contest imaginatively called the Coin Flip Challenge. The rules were simple; we (the coin and me) picked every NFL game of the season against the spread (ATS). The results were not good for the coin. My domination forced the coin into early retirement. I have to say that I am quite relieved by these developments since the coin was due for a big-time comeback. This year, I’m going to try out something new. Instead of picking every NFL game each week, I’m going to pick games that I would bet on if I had an endless flow of money. Call it simulated gambling if you like. The good thing about simulated gambling is that you can’t lose money no matter how bad you do. The bad thing about simulated gambling is that you can’t win money no matter how good you do. Since gambling would ruin my life in the same manner that fantasy sports did, this is as close to gambling as I’ll ever get. I’ll be picking college and pro games alike. This type of contest more closely resembles real life as I (or anyone else) would never bet on every game. There are certain games that are just too unpredictable to have a good feel about.

I won’t be putting any limits on the amount of games I have to pick each week. If I don’t feel good about any games, then I won’t pick any games. I’m trying to set the conditions to be as similar as possible to what would really happen if I decided to become a gambler. My inclination is that I will fare better by being selective rather than just simply picking every game. By definition, picking a game ATS should be a 50/50 proposition. By picking every game, my results will probably be pretty close to 50/50. However, if I can find the few “mistakes” or bad lines that inevitably pop up from time to time, I should be able to take advantage and increase my chances for picking correct games. Time will tell. I obviously think I know what’s going to happen but I’ve been humbled by sports many, many times before.

Since college football starts a week before the NFL, I’ll only be picking CFB games this week.

Your answer key to riches……

(Home teams in CAPS; my picks in Bold)

Boston College -11 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN

I can’t believe the line for this game is less than two touchdowns. Did I miss something like Kelly Baraka and Agim Shabaj enrolling at CMU? This game should be a blow out. BC has been solid every season of Tom O’Brien’s tenure including six straight bowl wins. CMU has been bad every season of everyone’s tenure (or just about).

Minnesota -14.5 over KENT ST.

I’m a little uncertain about this game but I do know a couple things….1) Minnesota runs the ball down the throats of weak defenses and 2) Kent St. has a weak defense. Also, Kent St. is one of the worst teams in college football. Minnesota feasts on schools like that. I’ll take the Gophers.


Southern California -8 over ARKANSAS

This isn’t so much a validation of USC as it is a questioning of Arkansas. USC will score points and I don’t think Arkansas will. The Razorbacks should be better this year but it’s hard to get in sync when your starting running back is at half speed. Unless Mitch Mustain is the best true freshmen quarterback of all time, USC should run away with this one.

MICHIGAN STATE -29 over Idaho

If MSU doesn’t take its foot off the pedal, then this game will easily be a blowout by more than 29 points. I’m not thrilled about taking the Sparties by this much but they have proven that, with Drew Stanton, they can demolish bad defenses.

AUBURN -14.5 over Washington State

Oregon St’s near victory at LSU in 2004 makes me a bit “skittish” about taking Auburn since Wazzou is similar to that Beavers team. However, near the end of last season Auburn was killing teams. I think they’ll pick up right where they left off by handing the Cougars a beating.

FLORIDA -20 over Southern Mississippi

So much for respecting Urban Meyer, eh? In his second season at both Utah and Bowling Green, Meyer’s offenses were unstoppable. Now, he has twice the talent against a pushover. That should be good for at least a 28 point spread. I think the odds-makers missed the boat on this one. Florida should win big.

TENNESSEE -1.5 over California

I’m not sold on a Pac-10 team not named USC winning on the road against an elite SEC team just yet. Tennessee will bounce back with a power run game and a stout defense. Cal is always good under Tedford but it takes a different kind of good to beat a motivated Tennessee team at home.

INDIANA -4 over Western Michigan

I’m taking Indiana for one reason and one reason only; Blake Powers to James Hardy. That combination was good for 10 touchdowns in 2005. Hardy and Blake will both be better as Terry Hoeppner tries to revive the Hoosier program.

TEXAS TECH -26.5 over Southern Methodist

This is a vote of confidence for Texas Tech’s coach, Mike Leach. The Red Raiders kill teams that don’t have the word “Texas” or “Oklahoma” in their name. Last time I checked SMU had neither.

LSU -30 over Louisiana Lafayette

LSU almost always covers the spread against bad, bad teams. LLF fits the bill. My only concern is if Les Miles stays true to his Michigan roots and sits on the ball in the second half. He hasn’t shown that tendency yet so I’m guessing it won’t start now.

Texas Christian -7 over BAYLOR

Baylor could play TCU tough but I would take TCU in a line like this every time. The Horned Frogs have a dynamite defense and Baylor doesn’t have a defense. This game is no “gimme” but Baylor is never good.

PENN STATE -16 over Akron

I think the return of Derrick Williams to the Penn St. lineup will be the catalyst for a high scoring offense. PSU has a bunch of talent on “O”. Anthony Morelli’s inexperience shouldn’t be an issue until the Notre Dame game. Akron was the worst bowl team of all-time last season. I’ll take 2006 Penn St. -16 over the worst bowl team of all time any day of the week.

Army -5.5 over ARKANSAS STATE

I have a rule that I’m going to break. The rule goes: If Army is ever favored on the road by more than three points, I am going with the team that’s playing Army. But, the opposite of that rule is the corollary that if Army is favored by more than three on the road, there has to be a good reason for it. I would say that the fact that Army beat Arkansas St. 38-10 last season counts as a good reason. This one is for you, Bobby Ross!