Friday, September 22, 2006

Simulated Gambling Week Four

Last week was my worst week by far. I came very close in quite a few games but that doesn’t do any good when a spread is involved. The bummer of it is that I looked over my picks again and I’d probably make the same picks next week. You can only pour so much knowledge into these picks because the rest is up to “luck”. That’s why this is “Simulated Gambling” and not “Gambling”.

I’ll leave up to you, the reader, to choose which direction you’re going to go after my 3-7 effort last week. You can A) jump ship and stop reading or B) stay the course and cite my 21-17 record thus far as reason to stick with me. I won’t blame you either way. In fact, I would choose “A” if I were you. But, for those of you that have more confidence in me than I do and chose “B”, here are my picks for the week….

Season record to date: 21-17

(Home teams in CAPS; My picks in Bold.)


Louisville -13.5 KANSAS STATE

Granted, the spread for this game would be closer to 25 if Michael Bush and Brian Brohm weren’t MIA. However, Louisville has plenty of talent to win by two touchdowns.


NAVY -4.5 Tulsa

The question about this game is whether Tulsa knows how to stop Navy’s offense. If a team doesn’t know how to play Navy defensively, Navy kills them. Just ask Stanford. We’ll find out on Saturday if Tulsa looked at enough film.


Ucla -3 WASHINGTON

UCLA has about a 10% chance of beating USC this year. However, I think they have about a 75% chance of beating Washington by at least three.


Central Michigan -4 EASTERN MICHIGAN

Central Michigan left an impression on me with a close loss to BC and a somewhat-close loss to Michigan. Eastern Michigan's strength is the gimmick play. That’s not a good sign.


WYOMING -1 Air Force

While everyone else has played three games, Air Force has played one. That lone game was a one-point loss (and easily could have been a win) at Tennessee. Something tells me Wyoming would’ve lost to Tennessee by double digits. I’m going with Air Force.


West Virginia -21 EAST CAROLINA

Watching Maryland try to stop West Virginia’s offense was brutal. Pat White and Steve Slaton would score thirty on any team. Remember, that dominating Georgia bulldog defense that has only surrendered 12 points in three games this season gave up 38 points to WVU in the Sugar Bowl just nine months ago.


Usc -21 ARIZONA

LSU destroyed Arizona. USC usually dominates teams in a way that LSU could only dream of. If USC gets lazy, Arizona will cover. So, I guess this is a vote for USC not being lazy.


BOISE STATE -14 Hawaii

The last two times Hawaii has played at Boise State, it lost 69-3 and 58-31. The last time Boise State played at home, it beat Oregon State mercilessly. So, I’m going with history.


Oklahoma State PK HOUSTON

I will be having nightmares of Kevin Kolb when I go to sleep on Friday night. Houston has had weak wins this year but there’s something about Kolb that makes Houston a little scary. Oklahoma State should have the better athletes and should win. I’m just hoping I don’t have nightmares of Kolb on Saturday night too. That would mean I lost.


Notre Dame -4 MICHIGAN STATE

Michigan State has won seven of nine against Notre Dame. That fact has gotten thrown around in the media lately but I don’t think people understand how unbelievable that is. Seven out of nine!? Michigan has won four of nine against Notre Dame. This game will be a shootout but I think there’s a good chance it’ll be decided by three points or less which would mean I win no matter what.

1 comment:

Rat said...

Good call on the ND/MSU outcome.

 

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