Simulated Gambling Week 3

Week two didn’t go nearly as well as week one. I did finish 8-7 but I should have done better. I picked games that I shouldn’t have picked. I need to learn to differentiate between games that I “think” might go a certain way and games that I’m almost positive will go a certain way. Last week, I failed to make this distinction and my results suffered. This week, my total number of picks are down which should mean my success will be up.

Also, I noticed that “bad” lines usually get corrected a bit over the week so the best time to make picks is before the corrections occur. Thus, I’ll be making my picks on Monday or Tuesday from now on. I encourage anybody who puts “real” money on games to follow my lead by picking early in the week. For instance, Louisville was a 38 point favorite on Monday of last week. By Friday, it was a 40.5 favorite. Two points can be the difference between making money and losing money. I understand that things can happen during the week like Drew Tate unexpectedly getting hurt. However, I’m guessing that might happen once or twice over an entire season.

Season record to date: 18-10

(Home teams in CAPS; My picks in Bold)

Boise State -8 WYOMING

I know I mentioned in this same spot last week that Boise St. isn’t as good this season as past seasons. However, I thing I was wrong. They went down 14-0 early to Oregon State and still managed to blast the Beavers. Boise State was so good that I was left thinking that the Beavers have the worst defense in D-1 football. I guess it’s possible that they do but I’m going to give the credit to Boise State’s “O” until it’s proven otherwise.

WASHINGTON STATE -13.5 Baylor

Washington State is a high scoring team. Baylor is not a high scoring team and doesn’t have a good defense. That should mean a Wazzou victory by more than two touchdowns.

NOTRE DAME -7 Michigan

I picked Penn State +7.5 last week against Notre Dame because of my respect for Penn State and not because I didn’t respect Notre Dame. In hindsight, Penn St. just isn’t that good. Plainly put, Penn State is no Michigan. I find myself looking at a similar line but I will not be deterred because Michigan is a good football team.

LOUISVILLE -5 Miami (FL)

I love Louisville. I love how they pound weaker opponents. I love how they throw the ball because it works. I hope Louisville makes the jump to “major” status at some point. However, I don’t think I’m making a bold statement by saying that every player on Miami was a better recruit than every player on Louisville. This game will be close just like last season but if Louisville wins, it shouldn’t be by more than five.

Fresno State -4 WASHINGTON

I must admit that I’m a little surprised by this line. I think the oddsmakers are hoping that average Joe football fan sees “Fresno” and “Washington” and thinks in historical terms. However, I think the average fan knows better. Washington hasn’t been good for a while now. Fresno plays every team tough whether it’s USC, Oregon, or another top-tier team. If Fresno plays to it potential, it will win by at least a touchdown.

Texas -28 RICE

It looks to me like Rice is getting some respect here. I was shocked to see the line lower than -30. Texas will not be happy coming off a season-derailing loss to Ohio St. Rice will pay the price.

Arizona State -9 COLORADO

Colorado is a little better than people probably think after losing to Montana State and Colorado State to start the season. However, the Buffs do not match up with ASU’s high-powered offense. I mean, Colorado scored ten points against Montana State!!! ASU will put up points. Unless Dan Hawkins can somehow get the turf painted gold, Colorado is in big trouble.

USC -18.5 Nebraska

Nebraska is the poor team’s USC. The Huskers have good players and a pass-happy offensive philosophy. Unfortunately, the difference between USC and a poor team’s USC is at least three touchdowns. If there’s ever a time for Nebraska to make a statement, it’s this week. I might be tempted to take Nebraska if this game was in Lincoln but it’s not.

Texas A&M -27 Army

I can’t say I know for certain how good Texas A&M is but I do know that Army is terrible. I also know that I took the Aggies in a big spread last week and they came through. This is not for you, Bobby Ross!

Missouri -12.5 NEW MEXICO

Missouri blasted Mississippi last week. I think Mississippi is slightly better than New Mexico. That alone should be enough for Mizzou to cover. However, I think Mizzou is actually a little better than people think.