I feel good about my picks this week. I have absolutely no reason to feel that way. It's just an irrational belief that this is finally the week that I will break through. I went with a lot of large-spread favorites which is risky but I think that teams like BYU, Hawaii, Navy and Boise State (at home) can put up 50+ this week. I knew the Ohio State/Michigan game would be something like six or seven but it still surprises me to see it in print. I will avoid making predictions on that game to preserve my own enjoyment come Saturday but I do think there is a better than 50/50 chance that this game will not result in Michigan losing by more than seven points.
Season record to date: 83-79-3
(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)
BYU -25 New Mexico
I don't know how BYU got to be so dominant but they destroy every team they play. I wouldn't mind seeing a BYU-Hawaii match-up in a bowl game.
Rutgers -6.5 CINCINNATI
Rutgers is undefeated, right?
Virginia Tech -1.5 WAKE FOREST
Despite how bad Florida State had been playing, I was still shocked to see Wake Forest win 30-0. This game could go either way but this is a vote against Wake Forest going 10-1. Is that even possible? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Missouri -14 IOWA STATE
Who hasn't beaten Iowa State by 14 points lately?
NAVY -31 Temple
I bet Navy is absolutely giddy at the thought of playing Temple.
NOTRE DAME -32 Army
This spread is a little harder to gage because there is the whole "respect for the academies" thing that could play into this late in the game. You don't necessarily want to be the guy who runs up the score against a service academy. But, I think Charlie Weiss is the guy to do that.
BOISE STATE -36.5 Utah State
Ian Johnson or no Ian Johnson, Boise State should crush Utah State.
OHIO STATE -7 Michigan
Really? Michigan was 30 seconds from winning last year. This year's team is so much better in every conceivable way. I guess we'll see how much better Ohio State is than last year.
LSU -27 Mississippi
LSU's "D" should keep be enough to cover the spread.
Arkansas -14 MISSISSIPPI STATE
I'm a little surprised at this line. Arkansas has been killing teams and Mississippi State is terrible.
Miami (FL) -2.5 VIRGINIA
Miami has been really bad but I don't think it's "lose to Virginia" bad.
BOSTON COLLEGE -7.5 Maryland
Maryland is no joke.
USC -6 California
Cal was obviously looking ahead to its showdown with USC. That may have cost the Bears a shot at the BCS Championship but that doesn't affect their chances against USC.
HAWAII -23.5 San Jose State
I'm on a role with these guys so I'm sticking with them until I lose.