No Manning=Fun

I have returned from the land of Queens and Pasties. Oddly, I find myself not having too much to say so I’ll do something I forgot to do last week as well as write a little bit about the NFL playoffs. First, I neglected to pass along the final tally of the Coin Flip Challenge. The final standings looked like this:

Jake--------118-113-9
Coin Flip---100-131-9

I clearly dominated the Coin Flip in the challenge but was my success enough to make money? Not quite. Assuming that all bets were $110 to win $100 (the $10 goes as commission to the bookmaker), I would’ve lost $630 on the season had I wagered on every game. The break even point would have been 121-110-9. I missed that by three games.

The Coin Flip, on the other hand, would have lost $4,410.

The NFL playoffs took an interesting twist this week as co-favorites Indianapolis and New England were eliminated. Since that means that Peyton Manning won’t be winning the Super Bowl this year, I will be content with whoever wins. I watched a little bit of the Pittsburgh/Indy game at my hotel in London. In fact, I watched it with a man from Akron. Coincidentally, the Griswald’s also met someone (a couple) from Akron on their European Vacation. I can’t believe that Nick Harper pulled a Tyler Ecker and cut back when he could’ve beaten Big Ben to the corner and gone the distance to send Indy to the AFC Championship game. Bettis would’ve been remembered as a goat of Ernest Byner proportions if that happened. Also, we got to see Peyton Manning’s face after Mike Vanderjagt missed a 45 yard field goal. Remember when Vanderjagt said that Manning needed to be more emotional as the leader of the Colts? Apparently, saying that someone should be more emotional is an insult in the Manning family as well as not winning a Heisman, playing in San Diego, and quite possibly winning a playoff game. Anyhow, If you remember that, then you probably remember Manning calling Vanderjat an “idiot” who got “liquored up and ran his mouth off.” Well, it’s been three years since that statement and Manning still can’t do didly squat in the playoffs. Vanderjagt was right back then and his miss kept him right now.

All four teams remaining are solid football teams. Denver has to be the odds on favorite to win since they get Pittsburgh in Denver and Seattle and Carolina could both have running games far less effective than what they had in the regular season. My feeling is that the winner of the Denver/Pittsburgh game will win the Super Bowl. It is very possible that the winner of the 2006 Super Bowl will be the worst Super Bowl Champion in a number of years. Pittsburgh was 7-5 at one point during the season not to mention that they are one of the least talented Steelers teams in the last few years. Denver has Jake Plummer at quarterback and the entire defensive line of 2004 Cleveland Browns. Need I say more? With DeShaun Foster and Stephen Davis out, Carolina has one offensive threat. Also, the injuries make this Panther team virtually the exact same team that didn’t make the playoffs last year. That brings me to Seattle. I’d like to play a game with you the reader. In your head, name as many Seattle Seahawks as you can. Did you start slowing down after four? This game is null and void for readers who are from Detroit but root for the Seahawks over the Lions. Anyhow, none of the four teams are overwhelming. The winner will easily be the worst Super Bowl Champion of my lifetime. That’s not such a bad thing though. Carolina or Seattle could win its first Super Bowl or Denver and Pittsburgh could add to their rich legacies. Either way, no Manning means excitement for everyone.

Week 17 in the NFL

Week 17 in the NFL marks the end of the Coin Flip Challenge. Part of me is sad because it made the season more interesting for me and hopefully for you as well. The other part of me is elated because picking NFL games against the spread is so frustrating. Things that should happen end up not happening far too often. I feel fortunate to be one game above .500 entering week 17. It would not surprise me at all if I bombed the last week and finished below .500. My confidence level for week 17 as a whole is next to nothing considering how many meaningless games there are. As far as the Challenge, I am thirteen games ahead of the Coin Flip. We only have nine differences for our week 17 picks. That means the Coin Flip cannot win. I have clinched the Coin Flip Challenge Championship. I have not decided whether or not I’m going to rest my starters during week 17.  I failed miserably in my attempt to get rid of my Jalen Rose jersey. There’s always next year. Anyhow, I think it’s entirely possible that nobody reads this so I’m going to say that I’m really He-Man. I do have a Battle-Cat and I fight Skeletor on a daily basis. Happy New Year!

SD -10 den

Denver has nothing to play for which means Mike Shanahan won’t play anyone good. However, San Diego really has nothing to play for either. They can’t make the playoffs and they can’t keep Denver from making the playoffs. The only thing they can do is keep Kansas City from making the playoffs. If SD hates KC that much, then maybe they’ll come out and play like it’s the Super Bowl. I find that highly unlikely. As a result, I really have no idea how fired up San Diego will be. If San Diego played Denver’s second string in San Diego earlier in the season, they would win by three touchdowns. My guess is that Denver’s back-ups will have a hard time putting points on the board. That should allow SD to cover the spread.

nyg -9.5 oak

Unlike SD and Denver, the Giants have plenty to play for. They have to win to make the playoffs. There will be no shortage of motivation in their match-up with the Raiders. However, it’s important to remember that the Giants and Eli Manning, specifically, are far less potent on the road than they are at home. The Raiders still have the ability to score some points. I would not be shocked if the Raiders lost by more than ten but considering Oakland’s big play capability and the Giants stagnation on the road, I’ll take Oakland to stay within 9.5 points.

IND -7 ari

I found this line kind of strange. The only explanation that I can come up with is that the oddsmakers are convinced that the Colts will try to win this game to avoid entering the playoffs on a three game losing streak. The Colts’ second stringers should not be seven point favorites over Arizona’s first stringers. I think it’s possible that Manning and Co. come out throwing to put this game away early. However, the Colts don’t seem too concerned about the possibility of a three game losing streak. They’re convinced they can turn it on when it matters. This game doesn’t matter so my pick is Arizona to cover.

bal -3.5 CLE

I felt foolish after I returned from Italy and saw the Pittsburgh/Cleveland box score. My brilliant self picked Cleveland to cover a 7.5 point spread against Pittsburgh. Despite the fact that the game was in Cleveland, the Browns lost 41-0. Granted, hindsight is 20/20 but that doesn’t make me feel any better. I am clueless as to what will transpire in this game between Baltimore and Cleveland. The Ravens are starting to play a little better but they don’t have Ray Lewis. Kyle Boller is the Joey Harrington of the AFC.  He only plays well when the team has been eliminated from the playoffs. So, do I go with the team that has a quarterback like Joey Harrington and a defense that’s missing its best player, or do I go with the team that lost last week by 41 points? I’m leaning towards Cleveland. The Redskins lost 36-0 earlier this year to the Giants but bounced back aggressively. It would be embarrassing for the Browns to get blown out two games in a row at home. I’ll take the Browns to cover.


buf -1 NYJ

I understand that anything can happen in the NFL but does anyone really think that the Jets could’ve gone into Cincinnati last week and dominated the Bengals? The Bills did just that. Both teams are far from being good. Both teams started season with high expectations. The Jets are playing at home but I think Buffalo is good enough to beat the Jets by two points. I’ll take the Bills to cover in a game with big-time draft implications.

car -4.5 ATL

Most people would probably expect Carolina to come in with more intensity than Atlanta. In theory, that should probably be the case. However, my guess is that Atlanta doesn’t particularly care for Carolina. At this point in the season, the only thing the Falcons have to play for is the joy of seeing Carolina not make the playoffs. That alone should be enough to keep this game close. I would not be surprised if Atlanta won the game. Carolina has been far from a sure thing on the road. If they underestimate Atlanta, the Panthers will be sitting in front of their televisions come playoff time. I’ll take Atlanta to come out motivated to spoil Carolina’s season.


MIN -4.5 chi

I find it interesting that Mike Tice didn’t get fired when the Vikings were the worst team in the NFL at the beginning of the season with sex parties, whizzinators, and scalping football tickets. However, after he guided the team out of that mess by making a playoff run, he’ll likely be fired. That sounds a little bit like the Bob Huggins fiasco at Cincinnati. Coaches are milked for every last drop and then shown the door with the most ludicrous explanations. At least Matt Millen had the decency to fire Steve Mariucci as soon as it became clear that he didn’t want him around anymore. If you’re going to fire a coach, you should do it as soon as you decide, not when it’s convenient. That’s unfair to everyone involved. I’m not making a case for Tice, rather I’m expressing my distaste for made-up excuses for firing a coach when the coach wasn’t fired for far more convincing reasons earlier in the tenure. Chicago has nothing to play for. A few weeks ago, I thought this game would decide the division. A combination of the Vikings losing and the Bears winning made this game irrelevant. The problem that I’m having with this game is that the Bears second unit might be just as good as its first unit. Kyle Orton is not much of a drop-off, if any, from Rex Grossman. The Vikings turned their season around by feasting on terrible teams. They failed in virtually every match-up with a legitimate team. The Bears, even with their back-ups, are good enough to beat the Vikings. I’ll take Chicago to cover in a meaningless game.


KC -8 cin

I was troubled by the Bengals signing of Carson Palmer through 2014 and it has nothing to do with the contract. I had to do a double take when I saw “2014”. That made me feel incredibly old. I guess I never realized that 2014 was so close that current contracts are now reaching that year. That was a buzzkill. In the interest of keeping everyone feeling young, sports contracts should be limited to three years. As for the game, the Bengals actually have something to play for. They can take the #3 seed in the AFC with a win. If they lose and New England wins, the Patriots would get the #3 seed. My guess is that the Bengals won’t simply hand the victory over to the Chiefs. The Chiefs should win this game but this line is way too high unless the Bengals plan on benching everyone. I’ll take Cincy to keep this game close and cover the spread.

PIT -13 det

The Lions are ridiculous. I bet Joey Harrington was thrilled about beating the Saints. That victory dropped Detroit to the 10th spot in the draft. If it weren’t for the completely unnecessary and counterproductive last minute heroics of Harrington, the Lions would be at #5 with a great chance of moving into the top three. Instead, the Lions have five wins instead of four. Congratulations to the Lions. You stunk and have nothing to show for it except for a meaningless victory over the New Orleans Saints. The Lions would’ve ruined Vince Young’s career anyway. The Steelers should dominate this game. The Lions are bad. They have zero good attributes as a football team. The Steelers will destroy the Lions on both sides of the ball. I’ll take Pittsburgh to win by 1,000 points and cover the spread. On a side note, as I mentioned, I was in Rome for the last week. There were no American channels or English speaking channels with the exception of CNN International. CNN International has a ticker at the bottom of the screen. On the ticker is a “Sports Bar”. The Sports Bar devotes 99% of its information to European sports. If you’re lucky, you might see one tidbit about American sports. For example, the ticker said “Former MLB reliever charged with robbery” and another said, “Monday Night Football ends”. I didn’t find out that Jeff Reardon was the former MLB pitcher, or that the Patriots beat the Jets on MNF until we returned home. Anyhow, I was watching the ticker on Christmas Day and this rolled across the screen “New Orleans 12 Detroit 13”. I was trying with all my might to think of another sport that would pit New Orleans against Detroit. It didn’t specify that it was an NFL game. Then I started thinking that maybe it was a misprint. Slowly, I came to the realization that Detroit had beaten New Orleans. I felt like I was punched in the gut by Joey Harrington 6,000 miles away in Italy. I hate the Lions.

NE -6 mia

Miami always gives Tom Brady problems. I don’t know why this is the case but I do know that it is the case. The Dolphins can’t make the playoffs but they’ve known that for quite some time. That hasn’t stopped them from turning their season around. New England still has something to play for since the #3 seed is up for grabs. If the Bengals can beat the Colts in the playoffs and the Patriots can beat the Broncos, the Pats would much rather have Cincy come to Foxboro than vice versa. The Patriots should win this game but with Miami playing well, it won’t be easy. The Dolphins should cover. Watch out for Miami next season.

TB -13 no

Tampa Bay has a lot to play for. They can clinch a first round home game with a victory. The Saints have nothing to play except to hold on to the #2 pick in the draft that was gift-wrapped to them by the Lions. If the Saints have any sense at all, they will let Tampa blow them out. The Saints would then be guaranteed either Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, or Vince Young. That’s a cause worth losing for. I’ll take Tampa Bay to crush New Orleans.

hou -2 SF

What are the chances that one of these teams tries to lose? Nobody would ever come out and admit it but isn’t the temptation too great to not at least consider it? It wouldn’t take much to lose on purpose. For instance, the Lions could’ve easily dropped the game to the Saints without a heroic last second win and nobody would’ve thought twice about it. If I’m one of these teams, and I have the ball with one minute to go and I’m losing, I would call a conservative drive. People want to make such a big deal about having respect for the game and whatnot. That’s hogwash. There is nothing wrong with trying to get the #1 pick in the draft. There are no rules against losing the game on purpose unless you’re betting on that game. These teams should be doing everything possible to lose this game. It shouldn’t even be a secret. Can you imagine two teams trying to lose? You’d have teams giving themselves safeties time and time again just to lose. The last team with the ball would be the loser because they would give themselves the last safety. It would be great to watch.  Why would any team intentionally try to NOT get Reggie Bush? People make such a big deal about trying to lose a game but it happens all the time. How would that be any different than scores of NFL teams benching their starters in week 17 to rest them for the playoffs? Clearly those teams are not trying to win the game. Yet, that’s a widely accepted practice. Anyhow, intentionally losing will never happen because a). NFL people aren’t smart enough and b). there is a negative stigma attached to it for whatever reasons. The winner of this game will be a big time loser. I’ll take San Francisco to edge out Houston and lose out on the three elite prospects in the 2006 draft. Houston should send SF a nice bouquet of cheeses to show its gratitude.


JAX -3.5 ten

I’m actually considering just taking the loss on this game without picking a winner. There’s about a 3% chance that I’ll get it right. Neither team has anything to play for. Jacksonville finally broke out last week by crushing Houston at my expense. My completely uneducated and likely incorrect guess is that Jacksonville’s offense will stagnate without its starters allowing Tennessee to stay close. I’ll take the Titans to cover.

GB -3.5 sea

I want to make something clear before I go any further. The Coin Flip Challenge was a contest where I picked every game in the NFL. If I were actually betting on NFL games, I would likely pick the four or five games that I was most confident in each week. Considering that I’m slightly above .500 on the season while picking every game, I think I could fare better if I only picked games that I was confident in. I would never, ever bet on a game like this one between Green Bay and Seattle. I have no clue what’s going to happen. I have no idea how good Seattle’s backups are. I have no idea how motivated Green Bay will be or if that even matters. I will say that it would not surprise me if Brett Favre throws for 400 yards and four touchdowns because it’s a home game against a bunch of back-ups. I like happy endings so I’ll take Green Bay to trounce what amounts to the New Orleans Saints.

WAS -7.0 phi

I can’t believe that Washington and the NY Giants will both make the playoffs. Throw in the fact that the Chicago Bears made the playoffs too and I’m all but convinced that we’ve been transported to 1990. I can honestly say I didn’t see any of that coming. Despite this being a divisional game, I don’t see Philly having the talent to stick with the Redskins on the road. Plus, the Skins have been on a role with just Clinton Portis dressing up in crazy costumes. Now, the whole team dressed up. That’s not a good sign for the Eagles. On a side note, I love the Portis/costume thing. I am most entertained by the names he comes up with. I now find myself being a big Clinton Portis fan. I’ll take Washington to take advantage of the talent differential and cover the spread.

DAL -13 stl

Does St. Louis have a potent offense capable of putting up points, or do they have the worst offense in the league? I have no idea. They have Issac Bruce, Tory Holt, Stephen Jackson, Marshall Faulk and Orlando Pace just to name a few. Yet, they’ve been awful. This is another game that I’m clueless about. Dallas needs to win so they’ll probably open up the passing game again like they did against Philly earlier in the season. Thirteen points is a big number for Dallas. I’ll take St. Louis to stick around and hopefully lose by 12 points.


My picks:

SD
oak
ari
CLE
buf
ATL
chi
cin
PIT
mia
TB
SF
ten
GB
was
stl


Coin Flip’s picks:

SD
oak
IND
CLE
buf
ATL
chi
KC
det
NE
no
hou
JAX
sea
phi
stl

NFL Week 16 prognostications

The Coin Flip Challenge is coming to a close with only two weeks to go. The Coin Flip missed out on a chance to pick up some ground this week by duplicating 12 of 16 of my picks. Barring a major catastrophe, I will be holding on to my Jalen Rose jersey. I know that bums a lot of you out and I apologize. I can only imagine your heartbreak week after week as my lead grew over the Coin Flip. If it’s any consolation, at least you had the dream for a good three months that you might be lucky enough to wear a Jalen Rose Denver Nuggets jersey at the beach next summer. Hope is a good thing. Never let go of it. The NFL playoff picture is fairly clear right now. The highlight of this week will undoubtedly be the monumental battle between the Detroit Lions and the New Orleans Saints. The loser will be rewarded handsomely. Merry Christmas!



CIN -14 buf

The Bills have been putrid on the road this year. They’ve lost road games by; 16, 12, 21, and 38. The Bengals are still playing for a first round bye so they won’t let up on the hapless Bills. If Cincy airs it out like they did against Detroit last week, this game will be a blowout. I am fearful of a repeat of what happened the last time Cincy played a bad team at home. They barely beat Cleveland in come-from-behind fashion. I could go either way on this game but over 60 minutes, Cincy should score at least 14 points more than Buffalo so I’ll go with Cincinnati.

pit -7.5 CLE

Cleveland is a nightmare for gamblers. The Browns have been very good at home this year having only lost one home game by more than six points. Cleveland lost by 12 at Pittsburgh earlier in the season but that was with Trent Dilfer at QB. Charlie Frye has given the Browns a boost in the arm since he took over. Pittsburgh has been playing well lately having beaten Chicago and Minnesota in dominating performances. If Cleveland can get the running game going, they will likely be able to stay within a touchdown. Cleveland’s defense is one of the best in the NFL. I’ll take Cleveland to keep this game close and cover the spread.

KC PK sd

These teams are basically the same. Both teams have great offenses. Both teams play in the same division. Both teams won’t make the playoffs. Both teams are better than teams that will make the playoffs. Both teams have up and down defenses. Both teams have unheralded quarterbacks. Both teams have old, successful coaches. I could probably go on for a few more minutes but you get the idea. When two teams are equal, and one team has an injured starting running back, and is playing on the road, I tend to go with the other team. I’ll take Kansas City to keep their December home winning streak going.

MIA -5.5 ten

Just a few weeks ago, I was wondering how the Lions were going to finish with a worse record than Miami. The Dolphins looked like a shoe-in to finish with a top five draft pick. The old Steve McNair showed up last week against Seattle. The Titans scored 24 straight points against Seattle at one point and barely missed the upset victory. Miami has won three games in a row by a total of seven points. Two of those victories were against Buffalo and the NY Jets. Miami might be playing better but they are barely beating bad teams. Steve McNair should be able to keep Tennessee in this game. I’ll take the Titans to cover.

jax -6.5 HOU

I have no idea who to pick in this game. Jacksonville is the ultimate play-to-the-level-of-its-opponents-team.  The Jags beat the Texans by seven at home earlier in the year. The Texans have played four straight close games. One would think that the Jags will break out offensively one of these games considering how weak their schedule has been. I will hope that the Jags stay in their offensive funk for one more week and go with Houston to cover.

NO -3 det

I’m going with Detroit all the way in this game. Both of these teams are terrible. Both of these teams need to lose. The Lions will be starting Joey Harrington who will be trying as hard as possible to prove he is the future QB in Detroit. The Lions also have a coach, Dick Jauron, who actually likes being the coach of the Detroit Lions. You can bet he’ll be treating this game like the Super Bowl. The Saints got the right idea last week when they handed their season over to Todd Bauman. If that’s not a sign that the Saints are gearing for the best possible draft pick, then I don’t know what is. The Lions will continue their ineptitude by actually winning a game they would be better off losing. I’ll take Detroit to, not only cover but, win.

CAR -5.5 dal

I can’t believe the Cowboys rolled over like that for the Redskins. I never thought I’d see a good team, coached by Bill Parcells, in a must win situation get destroyed like that. The NFC East might be the best division in football. The Giants beat the Redskins 36-0. The Redskins beat the Cowboys 35-7. Dallas beat the Giants 16-13. That tells me that each of those three teams has the ability to be very good. The biggest problem with these teams is consistency. In some games, these teams play like their Super Bowl winning teams from the 90’s. In other instances, they play like the Detroit Lions on a cold, winter day in Philadelphia circa 1995. Carolina got back to smoking teams with a win over New Orleans last week. This is a big game for Carolina who, despite being 10-4, hasn’t even clinched a spot in the playoffs yet. I would be surprised to see a Parcells team roll over two weeks in a row. They will come out fighting and lose a close battle. I’ll take Dallas to cover.


WAS -3 nyg

I’ve said it in this same spot many times before. Washington is a very good football team. They made a bad impression in their 36-0 no-show against the Giants earlier this year but they’ve quietly won three in a row and now find themselves in the playoffs if the season ended today. If Washington wins this game, they will almost certainly make the playoffs since their last game is against a bad Philly team. If someone would’ve told me before the season started that both Washington and the NY Giants were going to make the playoffs, I would’ve called them crazy. In fact, I’m still going to call them crazy. The Giants will win this game and keep Washington out of the playoffs. The Giants cover.

TB -3 atl

I was wrong about a few teams in my WWE-style NFL Preview. I was wrong about Baltimore, Chicago, NY Giants, and the Washington Redskins to name a few. One thing I was right about was the Atlanta Falcons. I didn’t see how Atlanta could make the playoffs this year. Their schedule was just too difficult for them to compete. Another team I was right about was the Tampa Buccaneers. The Bucs are a more complete team than Atlanta. They have a great defense with solid playmakers on offense. Joey Galloway from 1995 somehow made his way ten years into the future. The Bucs are just better than Atlanta. My guess is that TB will drive the final nail into the coffin of Atlanta’s playoff hopes. Tampa Bay should corral Vick and win by more than three.

STL -9.5 sf

This line is a shocker. You could’ve given me eight guesses at what this spread would be and I wouldn’t have come close to saying -9.5. The Rams are a bad, bad team. They’ve lost five of six games. The only victory was a come-from-behind overtime victory over the worst team in the NFL. These two teams played in week one with San Francisco coming away with the victory. How could St. Louis possibly be 9.5 point favorites? I could see a big line if SF had been playing terribly but they only lost by one at Jacksonville last week. I’ll take San Francisco to stay close to a team that isn’t much better than they are. SF covers.

ARI -1 phi

This game should be billed as John Navarre vs. Mike McMahon. If Kurt Warner weren’t out for the rest of the season, I would take Arizona. However, you couldn’t pay me to take John Navarre in an NFL game. He’s a good guy but being a good guy doesn’t mean you can win games in the NFL. I’ll take McMahon and the Eagles to win and move to 7-8. The fact that Philly could finish the season at 8-8 is surprising.

SEA -10 ind
This game is an example of why picking NFL games against the spread during the last two weeks of the season is such a toss-up. Who knows how long Indy will keep in its starters. Seattle can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win. That’s a big deal. Seattle certainly does not want to play away from home in the playoffs. My guess is that Indy’s starters will stick around for a quarter and then ride the bench. Seattle will likely try to send a message even if it’s against Indy’s second stringers. I’ll take Seattle to pull away in the second half.

DEN -13.5 oak

Denver should dominate the Raiders at home. The Broncos beat the Raiders by 14 in Oakland earlier in the year. However, I thought the same thing would happen just two weeks ago when Baltimore came to Denver. The Broncos barely beat the Ravens by two points. Even though the Broncos have been impressive for the majority of the year, they are still liable to come out flat against any team. Having said that, the Raiders have been deplorable lately. I’ll take Denver to run up the score at home.

chi -7 GB

I’ve been a big Chicago-doubter all year but even I was impressed with their destruction of Michael Vick and the Falcons last week. Soldier Field will be a big advantage for the Bears if they can get a home playoff game. The Bears have beaten Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta this season alone. That is extremely impressive. The Vikings were 0-3 against those three teams. The Lions were 0-3 against those three teams. The Packers were 1-2 against those teams. Despite not being flashy, the Bears are clearly the cream of the NFC North. It’s important to remember that when this season started, Green Bay had a Pro-Bowl running back, a Pro-Bowl wide receiver, and a Pro-Bowl tight end. All three of those players suffered season-ending injuries. If Brett Favre returns next season, he will surely be armed with a more explosive offense and a better team. I don’t know that Green Bay would be good enough to make the playoffs but they would undoubtedly be better than this year’s team. The Packers fate for this season might have been sealed when Green Bay’s GM let Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera leave in free agency. Whoever made that decision should be fired. I’ll take Green Bay to keep this game close. Chicago is a better team but Brett Favre should be sufficiently motivated to bounce back from last week’s miserable performance. The Packers should cover.


BAL -3 min

I didn’t get to see the Monday Night Football game thankfully. However, I did see the highlights. Was it me, or did all of Kyle Boller’s passes seem like ducks? That reminds me of the last few years when Joey Harrington would have a good game. The Detroit media would go crazy with the “Joey is finally coming around talk”. It inevitably only took the next week to debunk that notion. Well, I think Kyle Boller is a clone of Harrington. He may have the occasional good game but he’s not good. In fact, he’s terrible. The year the Boller has two good games in a row is the year that he’s playing in the Arena league. I’ll take Minnesota to win a close, defensive battle.

ne -6 NYJ

The Patriots don’t really have much to play for. They are pretty much locked into the #4 spot in the AFC. I really have no clue how this game will unfold. Will Belichick bench his starters for the second half? I can’t see him playing his starters very long with as many injuries as the Patriots have had this year. They need to be healthy for the playoffs if they have any chance of beating Indy or Denver. I’ll take Belichick to rest his starters and the Jets to cover.

My picks

CIN
CLE
KC
ten
HOU
NO
dal
nyg
TB
sf
phi
SEA
DEN
GB
min
NYJ


Coin Flip’s picks
CIN
pit
KC
ten
jax
NO
dal
nyg
atl
STL
phi
SEA
DEN
GB
min
NYJ

NFL Week 13 picks

MIA -4.5 buf

I can’t pick Miami games for the life of me. I lost another one last week to bring my record to 3-7 on the season. It’s safe to say that I don’t have a clue when picking a Dolphin game. They shouldn’t beat Buffalo by more than four points no matter where the game is played. The Bills, on the other hand, have been abysmal on the road this year. The Dolphins looked good against Oakland last week (which apparently isn’t saying much) and I’m not sure if it’s because Oakland is terrible or if Nick Saban lit a fire under Miami’s rear-ends. On a different note, can any news source in the world match ESPN’s ability to make the news? Saban said he was more focused on getting the Dolphins better rather than being concerned with their record. What a novel concept for a team out of the playoff race looking towards next year. Yet, ESPN spent hours covering the comments as if they were taken straight from the Devil’s mouth. As for my pick, Buffalo can’t score on the road. Miami seemed to get things going last week. I’ll take Miami.


PIT -3.5 cin

If I judge this game on how each team has performed against the Colts year, then I’d have to take Cincinnati. These two teams played at Cincy earlier this year with Cincy having all of the momentum. Pittsburgh came out and busted the Bengals in the mouth. Pittsburgh will be looking to make amends for its performance in Indy last week. But, it is not crazy to think the Bengals could win this game. Throw in the fact that Big Ben is hurt and you don’t have to think too hard to imagine the Bengals covering the spread. I’ll take Cincinnati.

BAL -8.5 hou

If I took Baltimore with a line this big, I would be downing jars of Pepto-Bismal just to get to bed on Saturday night. I know the Texans are bad but 8.5 points? That seems a little bit over the top to me. As for Lions fans, we really want Baltimore to win this game. I’ll take Houston to keep it close.

IND -15 ten

This game definitely requires a leap of faith. It’s a leap that I’m willing to take. I’ll go with the Indianapolis to dominate Tennessee at home. As for the Colts and going undefeated, I think it’s going to happen. Then again, I thought Minnesota was going to do it in 1998. The Colts have three tough games left in; Jacksonville, San Diego and Seattle. Indy should win all of those games with the toughest one (SD) being at home. There has been a lot of discussion about whether Tony Dungy should play his starters in the final game of the season against Arizona if the Colts are 15-0. This is a no-brainer to me. In my opinion, going undefeated in the regular season is very, very close to winning the Super Bowl. In most cases, nobody cares how a team does in the regular season but no team has ever gone 16-0 in the NFL regular season. The Colts would be remembered by history many times over in the same manner that the ’72 Dolphins are. If you’re that close to NFL immortality, you have to take the chance even if it means risking a unnecessary injury. Plus, the Colts should be able to dominate the Cardinals in the first half leaving the second half to the second-stringers.

jax -3 CLE

It’s been a fad lately to pick against the Jags to make the playoffs. I don’t know where this started but clearly whoever started it didn’t look at their remaining schedule. The Jags get to beat up on Cleveland, San Francisco, Houston and Tennessee. The Jags should win all four games giving them a 12-4 record. Even if they lose one game, they’ll be at 11-5. There is no doubt that Jacksonville is going to the playoffs. It's unfortuante that strength of schedule has played such an important role in the NFL this year. In my opinion, the six best teams in the AFC are Indy, Denver, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Kansas City. However, NewEngland will get in because they play in the worst division in football and Jacksonville will get in because there schedule is the inverse of KC and SD's. At any rate, the Jags should pound Cleveland this week. I’ll take Jacksonville to cover.

NYG -3 dal

Normally I would go with Dallas without hesitation. The problem I have with picking Dallas is that the Giants have been so good at home this year and Drew Bledsoe is a ticking time bomb on the road. This game should be relatively close but I think the Giants will get the running game going and take care of business in one of the most important games in the NFC this year.



CHI -7 gb

I don’t know where this line came from. Out of GB’s nine losses, two have come by more than seven points. Brett Favre has kept the Pack in games all year. Just as a side-note, Green Bay, despite only being 2-9, has outscored its opponents. Has that ever happened before? Chicago’s defense is great but the offense has only scored more than 20 points one time in the last seven weeks and only twice all season. Chicago might win by more than seven but the odds are against it. I’ll take Favre to be a pain in Chicago’s side.

min -2 DET

So, Dre Bly and Jeff Garcia think that Steve Mariucci would still be around if Garcia hadn’t broken his leg? That’s like saying that Bob Huggins would still be coaching the Cincinnati Bearcats if nobody ever invented beer. Garcia’s injury had minimal impact on the season. The problem with the Lions offense was with Steve Mariucci and his partner in crime, Ted Tollner’s pre-historic offense. I feel sorry for Bly that he left St. Louis to live in obscurity with the Lions but that doesn’t give him the license to make ridiculous statements. Garcia obviously loves himself at the quarterback position. However, anyone who has been paying attention realizes that Garcia has brought a big pile of nothing to this team. I’ll take Minnesota to keep winning.

CAR -3 atl

Carolina is at home which is good news considering what happened to them the last two weeks on the road. The Panthers were embarrassed by the Bears in Soldier field two weeks ago and barely escaped with a win at Buffalo. Just three weeks ago Carolina was the darling of the NFC. It’s amazing how fast a two game road trip can change everything. Here’s the deal with Atlanta, they’ve played 11 games this year and they’ve only lost ONE game all season by more than three points. I could take this one of two ways; a). they’re due for a loss of more than three points or b). it’s not a fluke but a trend. Unfortunately for me, I think it’s both. This game could go either way but I’ll take Atlanta because they have Vick, they play close games, and they might actually win the game.

tb -3 NO

New Orleans could very well pull an upset in this game. Crazier things have happened. However, this line is ridiculous. Tampa Bay should (and I emphasize “should”) put the hammer to New Orleans with its suffocating defense. Chris Simms has been up and down but he should be steady enough to not screw up this game for Tampa Bay. I’ll take Tampa Bay to win by 3.1 points.

ari -3 SF

This is another line that is surprising. These two teams have already played once and Arizona won by 17 points. I thought that would happen then and I think something similar will happen now. In fact, San Francisco has been at least a nine point underdog in every game since the last time these two teams played. Arizona was favored by 2.5 when they played on October 2. Apparently that 17 point blowout didn’t register with Vegas. Arizona has a fairly potent offense. Kurt Warner has been putting up big time numbers lately with one of the better receiving corps in the NFL. San Francisco is just terrible. I’ll take Arizona to take advantage of this rare occasion to dominate a team.

was -3 STL

I still have nightmares about picking Washington -3 on the road against the Giants earlier in the year. I am very confident that the Rams are nothing close to the Giants so hopefully there won’t be a repeat. This is a toss-up game with both teams being extremely unpredictable throughout the season. The wildcard in this game might be Rams rookie QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. All he did was lead the Rams to victory after falling behind by 21 points. He also threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Complicating matters is the fact that I don’t even know if Fitzpatrick is the Rams starter. I can see the Rams throwing Jamie Martin back in the mix for no good reason. The Rams are just too good on offense to get blown out and the Redskins debacle against the Giants is still weighing heavily on my mind almost two months later. I’ll take St. Louis.

NE -10 nyj

The Patriots are definitely ten points better than the Jets. The question is whether or not they care to be ten points better. The Pats seem to be content on doing just enough to beat teams. They aren’t dropping the hammer like they used to. It seems like they’re in “rope a dope” mode just to get through the regular and get everyone healthy for the playoffs. On the other side, the Jets haven’t lost by less than ten points to any team on the road this year. They’ve lost by; 20, 10, 10, 13, 27 and 27. It would be only fitting if I went with the trend by taking New England only to have the Jets show up on the road for the first time all year. I’m going to risk and take New England.

den -1.5 KC

I was on the Kansas City bandwagon to start the season. This team has players all over the field. They have good units on offense, defense and special teams. Then, something happened. The Chiefs were dominated by the Buffalo Bills. Nothing spells disaster more accurately than a drubbing by the Bills. I still have that nasty taste in my mouth. Buffalo was a 2.5 favorite in that game which was ridiculous. The Chiefs should’ve been favored by at least 4 points. They should’ve blown on the Bills. I really think I’ve developed some sort of Post Traumatic Chiefs Disorder (PTCD) after that Bills game. Then last week came. With the Bills game fresh on my mind, I thought for sure that the Chiefs would get tested and possibly beaten by the Patriots. Instead, they put together one of the more impressive showings by any team in the league this year. Where was that in Buffalo? This is exactly what I was talking about in my NFL Road Rage post. I’ll take the Chiefs in an attempt to face my PTCD head on. I respect Dr. Leo Marvin and all but no “Baby Steps” for me.

SD -10.5 oak

The Chargers will be 9-4 after victories in the next two weeks. At that time, they’ll have three huge games left to make the playoffs; at Indianapolis, at Kansas City and Denver. The Chargers have to win at least one of those games and they’ll probably have to win two. I just don’t see it happening. The Chargers are clearly one of the better teams in the NFL but I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs. What a bummer. Anyhow, Oakland is a disaster. They were dominated by Miami (yes, Miami) in Oakland last week. My first inclination is that this line is too big. But, who do the Raiders actually have on defense? Warren Sapp and Charles Woodson are out for the season. That’s not good against the Chargers. I’ll take San Diego.

sea -3.5 PHI

Seattle is funky. The one thing they’ve done consistently this year is win. There has been nothing consistent about how much they’ve won by. They’ve won four games by three points or less and they’ve won four games by 14 points or more. I still have a lot of respect for the Eagles’ defense. They have a lot of veterans that are still playing hard despite being out of the playoff race for the first time in years. The difference in this game should be Seattle’s aggressive defense against former Lion great, Mike McMahon. I’ll take Seattle to cover.


Coin Flip’s picks

buf
PIT
BAL
IND
CLE
NYG
CHI
min
atl
NO
SF
was
NE
den
SD
Sea

My picks

MIA
cin
hou
IND
jax
NYG
gb
min
atl
tb
ari
STL
NE
KC
SD
sea


Coin Flip Challenge Standings:

Jake --------75-80-5
Coin Flip—--63-92-5

Coin Flip Challenge week 11 Picks

This week is probably the most important week of the Challenge so far this year. If I have another bad week like last week, my goal of reaching +.500 for the season pretty much goes up in flames. The Coin Flip decided to copy off of my picks this week since we shared 9 of 16 picks. Judging from how the Coin Flip has done this season, I don’t think it’s necessarily a good thing to share that many picks. I’m not very confident with my picks this week. Once again, Cleveland, Baltimore, New Orleans, St. Louis and Miami leave me with no idea how their games will turn out. My fate lies in their hands. If I can solve the mystery, I could be in for a good week. Happy Thanksgiving!



atl -3 DET

The “Lions always play tough on Thanksgiving”-slogan probably needs to be retired for the near future. The Lions don’t play well on any day and last year’s drubbing by Indianapolis should be proof. On the other hand, Atlanta is precisely the kind of team that Detroit could beat. In fact, the Lions match up pretty well with any team from the NFC North. Remember, the Lions lost by one to Carolina and barely lost on a controversial call to Tampa Bay. Atlanta is a ball control team. They won’t put up too many points. If I had any faith, whatsoever, in the Detroit Lions, I would take them to cover. But I don’t and I won’t. I’m taking Atlanta.

den -2.5 DAL

These team teams are mirror images not only in how they match-up this season, but also how they match-up over the course of their franchise histories. Denver’s All-Time NFL record is 326-234-6 (.580 winning %) with six Super Bowl appearances. Dallas’ All-Time NFL record is 415-307-6 (.574 winning %) with eight Super Bowl appearances. Both teams have questionable quarterbacks that have played well above their means this year. They both have successful veteran coaches who rely on the running game. And most importantly, both teams start with the letter “D”. Denver has been playing way too well as of late and it almost seems like they’re do for an “off” game. Dallas should be well-motivated playing their annual Thanksgiving game at home. I’ll take Dallas with not very much confidence.


KC -3 ne

The Chiefs have been on a roller coaster ride all season long. They stole a game at home on a gutsy last second call to beat Oakland. Then they got blown out against a poor Buffalo team. They bounced back by torching Houston on the road. I don’t know how a team that got blown out so badly by the Bills can all of a sudden be a -3 favorite over New England. My gut tells me that New England will show up and keep this game close. Since they’re liable to pull off the win, I’ll go with New England.

CIN -9 bal

As I mentioned earlier in the week, I can’t pick a Ravens game for the life of me. Some weeks they show up and other weeks they roll over like my dog when presented with a Scooby Snack. The Bengals should be sufficiently ticked off after blowing their chance at beating the Indianapolis Colts. The Ravens couldn’t score if they were in the same room with Jennifer Lopez the day after a divorce. I doubt they’ll start this week. I’ll take Cincinnati to lay a whoopin’ on the Baltimore Brian Billicks.

car -4.5 BUF

Carolina got punk’d in Chicago last week. I got a chance to watch the whole game and the Panthers should be embarrassed. They were dominated by the Bears in every phase of the game. Jake Delhomme looked like Demetrius Brown against MSU. The running game was non-existent and the defense looked like they were on ice skates against Kyle Orton. Judging from last week, there’s no way Carolina covers this spread. Judging from the rest of the season, they should be a good bet. Buffalo followed up their impressive win against the Chiefs two weeks ago with an abysmal performance against the San Diego Chargers. There is one caveat to all of this though. The Chiefs game was at home and the Chargers game was on the road. This game is at home so Buffalo should make some noise. I’ll take Buffalo to keep it close.

TB -3 chi

This Bears team is almost an exact carbon copy of the 2001 Bears team that came out of nowhere to win 12 games. That team was quite possibly the worst 12-win team in NFL history. This year’s version is easily the worst seven-win team in the league. I just don’t believe the Bears are that good. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has beaten Washington and Atlanta to weeks in a row. Combine that with Kyle Orton playing on the road and I have to go with Tampa Bay.

sd -3 WAS

I am very wary of the San Diego Chargers on the road. This is exactly the kind of game that looks like a no-brainer on paper until the game starts. You can tell immediately that the road team is flat and the home team is going to have a strong afternoon. As much as I feel like I should go with Washington, how on Earth can the Redskin offense keep up with San Diego? It shouldn’t be possible. I’ll take San Diego and regret it on Sunday.

MIN -4.0 cle

Minnesota has won three games in a row since Brad Johnson took over. Apparently that hasn’t earned them much respect in Las Vegas. They find themselves only 3.5 point favorites over the Cleveland Browns at home. I can’t stand the Browns. I can’t get the Browns right no matter how I reason my pick. Minnesota hasn’t been very impressive on offense despite their win streak. That makes me nervous about taking them as 4.0 point favorites. On the other hand, Cleveland is horrible on the road. I’ll take Minnesota in a game I will almost certainly lose.

TEN -8.0 sf

Tennessee is another team that I can’t stand. I’m 3-6 picking Titans games this season. I have no idea when they’re going to show up or when they’re going to “mail it in”. San Francisco has been playing teams tough lately including this past week against Seattle. I will most surely live to regret this pick but I’ll take San Francisco to keep this game close.

stl -3.5 HOU

My first inclination is to just take the loss for this game. It doesn’t matter which team I pick, the other team will cover. I would bet on it. I’m not even sure I want to comment on this game since it’ll be a waste of time. Instead, I’ll use this space to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving! Also, don’t eat too much. It’s not what you eat that’s the problem, rather how much you eat. If you need to unfasten your belt, you’ve gone too far. I’ll take St. Louis.

jax -3.0 ARI

The Arizona Cardinals were the direct recipients of a gift-wrapped victory courtesy of the St. Louis Rams. Kurt Warner is putting up some impressive numbers. Now that Anquan Boldin is back, the Cardinals should continue to be respectable. The Jags on the other hand are hanging on by the flab of Byron Leftwich’s gut against very poor teams. They should be dominating teams like Tennessee but every week they squeak by. I expect them to continue that trend this week against Arizona. As much as I’d like to take Arizona to show up, the Jags have to put a complete game together one of these weeks. I’ll take Jacksonville.

OAK -7 mia

Miami lost 22-0 to Cleveland last week. Oakland is slightly better than Cleveland. So, Oakland should be at least 22 point favorites this week. Miami is terrible. They should be embarrassed by their performance on Sunday. I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in Oakland but I have even less confidence in Miami on the road. I’ll take Oakland.

SEA -4.0 nyg

This game could really go either way. Seattle should’ve dominated San Francisco so that is a cause for concern. The Giants should’ve crushed the Eagles. Philadelphia gave them every opportunity to run away with that game and they couldn’t. The Giants have been a totally different team on the road. Seattle should put up some points at home. I’ll take Seattle.

PHI -5.0 gb

Las Vegas seems to have a lot of confidence in Mike McMahon. He looked OK at times against the Giants. However, the quarterback dual pits Brett Favre vs. Mike McMahon and Brett Favre is getting 5 points. When you look at it that way, it seems like a bad line. I’ll take Green Bay to keep this game close.

no -1.5 NYJ

Does this game really need to be played? Could the NFL fans be spared this pending disaster? Maybe these teams could agree on a tie before the game. That way, nobody loses. The Saints are ridiculous. The Jets are terrible. The Jets have actually lost respectably at home this year while the Saints have lost terribly on the road. I’ll take the NY Jets with zero confidence.

IND -8 pit

If Tommy Maddox were the quarterback for the Steelers this week, I’d take Indy -10. Early indications say that Big Ben will be back. The Steelers have a good defense and a ball control offense. That should be enough to keep Pittsburgh within eight points. I’ll take Pittsburgh to keep it close.


My pick’s

atl
DAL
ne
CIN
BUF
TB
sd
MIN
sf
stl
jax
OAK
SEA
gb
NYJ
Pit



Coin Flip’s picks

atl
den
KC
bal
BUF
chi
sd
cle
sf
HOU
jax
OAK
SEA
phi
NYJ
pit

Coin Flip Challenge week 10 results

I almost opted to bypass the “results” for the Coin Flip Challenge for this past week since I’m embarrassed at my performance. I had to go 3-1 in the last four games just to get to 6-10. I fear that I missed on my one chance to get over .500 for the season. There’s really only one way to put it and it’s that I blew it. The Coin Flip wasn’t too impressive either at 7-9. I have to say that there are a few teams that make me sick just thinking about them. I lose every week on any games that involve Cleveland, Baltimore, Miami, New Orleans and St. Louis. I am a combined 11-33-1 in games involving those teams. I almost want to just take the “loss” so I don’t have to play the guessing game since I know I’m going to get it wrong. If it weren’t for those five teams, I would be 18 games over .500! Five teams are the difference between me being four games under .500 and 18 games over. I have no idea why I can’t get a handle on those teams. It’s ridiculous. I have no excuse other than that I’m clueless. Do I start picking opposite of what my initial thoughts are since my initial thoughts have been wrong 75% of the time, or do I keep going with my initial thoughts with the thinking that the odds are that I'll eventually turn it around and start picking some correct games with these teams? I’m hopeful that I can still achieve one of my goals by beating the Coin Flip. I still have a 12 game advantage but my heart is with getting above .500. Hopefully I can bounce back next week.

On to the season totals:

Jake:----------68-72-4
Coin Flip:-----56-84-4

Coin Flip Challenge week 10 Picks

The Coin Flip challenge should really start to pick up now that there’s two extra games each week. We had been picking 14 games per week but that gets bumped up with the bye weeks out of the way. This week there are more differences than similarities which usually means it’s a pretty big week. We have nine different picks. There are a lot of big spreads this week which makes me a bit nervous. I have managed to get above .500 on three different occasions this year (all in the last three weeks) midway through Sunday. Each time the evening games didn’t fall my way and I fell below the marker when the day was over. Hopefully I can get a break or two this week and get above the .500 marker for a whole week.



car -2.5 CHI

The Bears have been almost as unimpressive as the Lions in their six victories this season. They have a good shot at becoming the worst playoff team in NFL history. Kyle Orton is a brutal quarterback. I would be surprised if the Bears hold off Minnesota for the NFC North Title. The Panthers, on the other hand, are killing teams. Steve Smith is making 40% of the Panthers receptions which is just ludicrous. I don’t see how the Bears can stick with Carolina. The pick here is Carolina.

jax -4 TEN

The Jags play an outclassed Titans team this week. Jacksonville has been in a similar situation two times in the past couple weeks. They totally blew a game against the Rams who were fielding a group of no-name backups. Then, last week, they dominated the Ravens. This game could really go either way. The Jags play to the level of the competition at times which makes them a gambler’s nightmare. However, Tennessee has been struggling recently. I’m reluctantly going with Jacksonville.

ind -6 CIN

I think it’s safe to say that Las Vegas loves the Colts. They are six point road favorites over a 7-2 team. I have a feeling that the Colts will have some Foxboro flashbacks this weekend. They probably feel pretty good about themselves for dismantling the Patriots at home. But, the Patriots are clearly not the same teams of years past. Cincinnati will be cold and very reminiscent of the environment that plagued the Colts at New England the last few years. Six points is a lot of points to give up to a team that can score like the Bengals. I think a field goal decides this game so I’m taking Cincinnati.

NE -9 no

I’m not sure how New England earned a nine point spread against New Orleans. The Patriots have either lost, or won close in virtually every game this year. They have one win by more than seven points. The Saints are abysmal no doubt. This is one of those games that I know whatever team I pick, the other team will inevitably cover. This is definitely the most difficult game I’ve picked all year. I’ve gone back and forth in my head for the last hour trying to decide who I want to pick. I have no idea how this game will play out. Will the Saints give up before the snap or will Aaron Brooks throw for 400 yards and keep it close? Aaron Brooks and Joe Horn are just stubborn enough to show up and lose by eight this week in Foxboro. But, if I take New Orleans and they don’t cover, I’m going to be kicking myself. So, the pick is New England.

STL -9 ari

Having their whole cast of characters healthy last week against the Seahawks didn’t seem to do the Rams a bit of good. They just don’t have a great team. A lot of their problems come from the defense but the offense has been disappointing as well. Whereas I don’t trust the Rams against any team with a pulse, I think they are the kind of team that will rout a bottom-feeder like Arizona. Plus, St. Louis is at home which could make this game ugly. I’ll take St. Louis.

ATL -6 tb

Before last week, I would not be surprised by this line. However, Tampa Bay and Chris Simms beat a pretty good Redskins team last week. They put up over 30 points against the ‘Skins powerful defense. I said last week that I wouldn’t pick Chris Simms until he proved he could win a game. He did that and more last week. Six points seems a little high to me so I’ll take Tampa Bay to keep this close.

WAS -6 oak

I’m definitely surprised by this line. The Raiders have been a tough out this year. The Redskins have had split personalities. I just don’t see how Vegas thinks Washington is a six point favorite. The Raiders can score and should keep it close. I’ll take Oakland.

DAL -8.5 det

This line is surprising considering that Detroit is finally healthy. I don’t expect the Lions to win this game but I would be surprised if they were blown out. Roy Williams has brought some respectability to the offense would should, in turn, open up the running game a little bit. The Lions have a tough defense which should also keep this game close. I’m taking Detroit.

NYG -7.0 phi

Are the Giants, at home, 7.0 points better than the Eagles without Donovan McNabb and T.O.? I think they are. My only apprehensions are that the Eagles still have a good defense and this is a divisional game. However, the Eagles are Filet Mignon right now and Mike McMahon isn’t going to change that. The Giants have been extremely impressive at home this season so I’ll take the NY Giants.

CLE -2.5 mia

I think Miami is a better team than Cleveland. I’ve been awful in Browns games this season. My record is an embarrassing 1-7. Whatever I’m doing in the Browns games is clearly wrong. The last time I was this bad picking one team was the Minnesota Vikings. I took a look at the Vikings trends and I covered two weeks in a row. So I’ll try to do the same with the Browns. Never mind that I think Miami is going to win this game, the Browns were in a similar situation with the Detroit Lions. They had a -3 point spread playing at home against Detroit. I thought the Lions would win straight up and I was right. Detroit and Miami are comparable teams. I have a similar feeling in this game so I’ll take Miami to cover.

SEA -12.0 sf

If this game were -14.5 I would have big time issues taking Seattle. It’s hard to win by more than two touchdowns in the NFL. All it takes are an off day from a quarterback or a hot fourth quarter by the opposing team for the underdog to cover. But, since two touchdowns would allow Seattle to cover, they seem like a good pick. Shaun Alexander has dominated the Cardinals twice this season and the 49ers having nothing on the Cardinals. Seattle should come out smoking at home against an overmatched defense. I’ll take Seattle and, more importantly, Shaun Alexander to cover.

SD -11 buf

My eyes just about popped out of my head when I saw this spread. I know San Diego is the better team and I know J.P. Losman sucks but Buffalo has a decent defense and a strong running game. I thought Buffalo would get a little more respect. There was a similar game just two weeks ago when San Diego was a heavy favorite over the Jets. There was every reason in the world for San Diego to cover and only one reason for them not to cover. That one reason is Marty-ball. It is for that reason that I have to take Buffalo.

DEN -13 nyj

I think this week has the biggest spreads of the season. There are ten games with spreads of six or more. The Jets have been an elusive correct pick for me this year. Whenever I think they’ll get blown out, they show up, whenever I think they’ll play hard, they get blown out. The Broncos dominated the Raiders last week at Oakland. That opponent was much tougher than the Jets will be this week. The Broncos play like Super Bowl champs at home so I’ll take Denver to bring down the hammer on the Jets.

pit -3.5 BAL

The happiest place in the world this week may just be the Ravens locker room. If nothing else, they get to beat the living daylights out of Tommy Maddox. The Ravens played the Steelers tough just a few weeks ago at Pittsburgh. Tommy Maddox’s only extended playing time this season was his overtime debacle against the Jags earlier in the season. I have a dilemma here. There’s no way I can pick Tommy Maddox on the road against a good defense. Conversely, there’s no way I can pick the Ravens in this game. So, I have to make a pick that I can’t do. That’s never a good sign. I’m going to pretend that Tommy Maddox isn’t the quarterback this week and pick the Steelers to cover.

kc -6.5 HOU

The wheels have fallen off KC’s wagon. Not only has their defense been a bit disappointing, but their offense has been even more disappointing. They can’t score through the air or on the ground. They’re just a disaster right now. Houston, on the other, hand, has been fairly competitive lately. They have covered three straight spreads. This is a tough one because KC will break out offensively if only for one game. If it’s this game, then they’ll cover for sure. The Chiefs are still a respectable 5-4 on the season. They still have slim hopes for the playoffs. If there’s any professionalism on the KC team at all, they will show up and take care of business against a terrible Houston team. I’ll take Kansas City to cover.

GB -4.5 min

Apparently the people in Vegas are not impressed with Minnesota's two game winning streak over Detroit and the NY Giants. I have been impressed. They aren't the bungling fools that they were for the first half of the season. They aren't going to the Super Bowl anytime soon but they're a decent football team right now. Meanwhile, Green Bay has two wins on the season! I'm surprised with how big this line is. I've had luck picking with Brad Johnson and I'm not going to stop now. I'll take Minnesota to continue their march to the top of the NFC North.


My picks:

Car
Jax
Cin
NE
STL
tb
Oak
Det
NYG
Mia
Sea
Buf
Den
Pit
Kc
Min


Coin Flip's picks:

CHI
jax
Ind
NE
Ari
tb
WAS
Det
NYG
Cle
SEA
Buf
NYJ
Bal
Hou
GB

Coin Flip Challenge week 9 results

I had high hopes going into last week’s games. Although I managed a respectable 7-7 week, I would’ve liked to break the .500 plateau in a week that I thought was one of the easier weeks of the season. The Coin Flip took advantage of the easy week to garner an 8-6 record and climb within 13 games of first place in the challenge. The only thing standing in my way of an above .500 record is the Jon Gruden two-point conversion call to beat Washington. It wasn’t meant to be so I have to regroup and come out swinging this week. Despite not being overly impressive this past week, I am still nine games over .500 over the last seven weeks at 52-43-3.

Here are the standings entering this week:

Jake--------62-62-4
Coin Flip---49-74-4

Coin Flip Challenge week 9 Picks

This week should provide a bit of a rest after an action packed couple of weeks. There are only five differences out of the 14 games so there shouldn’t be too much movement in the standings. However, this week takes on particular importance for me as it gives me a chance to climb above .500 for the first time all season. It’s amazing how big of a whole you can put yourself in just from two bad weeks (week 1 and 2). It’s taken me seven weeks just to get back to .500. Hopefully, I can break on through to the other side. I’m a little nervous about taking all fourteen road teams. That was not planned. I generally subscribe to the investment theory that it’s best to diversify. My picks are certainly not diversified this week. May the force be with me (and you too).


BUF -2.5 kc

The Kansas City Chiefs saved their season last week against Oakland with a gutsy last second call from the one yard line. They were without Priest Holmes but Larry Johnson filled in admirably as the Chiefs barely hung on. There is no question in my mind that KC is a better team than Buffalo. The only question is whether or not KC comes to play on the road. The bottom line is that if the Chiefs are going to make the playoffs, they can’t afford to fall any further behind the Broncos. I think Kansas City takes care of business this week.


was -1 TB

On one hand, you have a team that got destroyed 36-0 in their last road game. On the other hand, you have a team that’s on a two game losing streak having lost to San Francisco and Carolina since Chris Simms took over at QB. Tampa Bay was dominated at home by the Panthers last week. The question becomes, what’s more of a liability, the fact that Washington is on the road, or that Chris Simms is TB’s quarterback? I took the ‘Skins in their road game against the Giants and it was over in two minutes. I don’t want to give them another chance to burn me. But, until Simms proves he can win a game in the NFL, I’ll have to take Washington.

ne -3 MIA

There is no question that New England is hurting without Rodney Harrison. However, it’s important to remember that the team that beat New England last week was the best team in the NFL. Miami can’t hold a candle to Indianapolis. If New England has any chance to make the playoffs, they have to beat Miami and the rest of the teams in their division. I’ll take New England, and more importantly Tom Brady, to bounce back and cover the spread.

CHI -13.5 sf

There are six games this week with a spread of -8 or more. The bad news for me is that most of the teams with the large spreads are offensively challenged starting with the Bears. The Bears should never be a 13 point favorite over anyone. The Bears aren’t even a guarantee to score 13 points the whole game. As much as I hate to do it, I’ll take San Francisco to keep this within ten points.

NYG -10 min

If Daunte Culpepper were still Minnesota’s quarterback, I would take the Giants in a second. However, I think Brad Johnson gives the Vikes a better chance of winning. He’s a veteran with a good understanding of the offense. He has decent wide receivers to throw to and an average running game. With the NFC North being so bad, Minnesota has a reason to show up on Sunday. They’re still alive to make the playoffs. My guess is that this game will be closer than ten points. The last time I thought that about the Giants, they won 36-0. Hopefully, a repeat of that is not in store. I'm skeptically taking Minnesota.

DET -4 ari

Do the Lions really deserve to be four point favorites over anyone in the league? Granted, Arizona stinks but the Lions are spiraling out of control. They have no offense to speak of and the defense is missing some key starters. Four points is too much to give to a team that can score. I’ll take Arizona.

JAX -7 balt

Jacksonville got a big spread last week against Houston and anybody who follows the NFL knows that was way too much. Now, the Jags play a stout defense in Baltimore. Jacksonville might break out in one of these games but I can’t rationalize taking them in a spread as big as 7 over the Ravens until they prove they can score. Baltimore isn’t going to make the playoffs but they at least have the roster to keep things close against an offensively challenged team. I’m going with Baltimore.

IND -18 hou

Part of me thinks it’s crazy to take any team in an -18 point spread. There are so many things that can go wrong in a game. If Peyton Mannings gets hurt, there’s virtually no chance of the Colts covering. If Houston scores a few meaningless points against Indy’s second stringers in the 4th quarter, there’s a good chance that they game will be closer than 18 points. Then there’s the possibility that Houston could actually win. However, the Colts will be playing at home against a very bad team. Houston can’t score and they can’t stop anyone. The Colts can score a lot and they have a very aggressive defense. I’m torn on this game. I’ll take Houston to score a meaningless fourth quarter touchdown to cover.

CAR -9 nyj

The Jets had no business of covering against San Diego last week. Marty-ball cost me the game against a bad Jets team. I like Carolina a lot but the Jets have some good players that won’t give up on the season. I’ll take the Jets to come out with a strong effort and keep the game close.

den -3 OAK

I don’t trust Jake Plummer on the road. Having said that, Denver has just the remedy for Randy Moss and it’s Champ Bailey. Denver’s running game should give them enough to win the game and cover the spread. Oakland has played very well this season despite a less than appealing record. I may regret this pick but I’ll take Denver to keep rolling.

SEA -7 stl

Mike Martz, or the lack thereof, turned out to be the key to the Rams season. Not surprisingly, the Rams have turned their season around since losing their pass happy head coach. The new guy apparently understands that it’s unwise to NOT run the ball when you have one of the best 1-2 combo’s at running back in the league. Steven Jackson is a beast. Marshall Faulk apparently never got the memo that he was outdated and on the decline. With a weak schedule, the Rams could make a push for the playoffs. I’ll take St. Louis to cover this week.

ATL -9.5 gb

These Green Bay spreads are just ridiculous. Week after week, Green Bay is a big underdog. I inevitably have to decide how many points Brett Favre is worth. Green Bay has been hanging tough with very good teams lately. Atlanta wins games by controlling the game clock which will put a cap on how many points they’ll score. Green Bay should keep this game close. I’ll take Green Bay to stay within ten points.

PIT -8 cle

Pittsburgh has been terrible at home this year. They barely, and I mean barely, beat an undermanned Baltimore team at home two weeks ago. The Steelers should’ve crushed the Ravens. Throw in the fact that the Steelers will have Charlie Batch at quarterback and I think an 8 point spread is a little much. I’ll take the Browns to lose by 7.

PHI -3 dal

The Eagles might be happier without T.O. but they certainly aren’t better. There is no question in my mind that Philly would’ve beaten Washington last week with T.O. Dallas crushed Philly earlier this year with T.O. They should be able to handle a struggling Philly team without T.O. I’ll take Dallas to blow out Philly’s torch. The tribe has spoken.


My pick’s:

KC
Was
NE
SF
MIN
ARI
Balt.
Hou
NYJ
Den
Stl
GB
Cle
Dal


Coin Flip’s picks:

KC
TB
NE
Chi
Min
Ari
Balt.
Indy
Car
Den
Stl
GB
Pit
Dal

Coin Flip Challenge Week 8 Results

Week 8 of the Coin Flip Challenge was truly remarkable. Never in my wildest imaginations did I think that what occurred this week was possible. Out of fourteen picks, the Coin Flip managed to garner one correct selection. You read that right! The Coin Flip got 1 out of 14. I’m sure there are some math people out there that can give the actual odds of picking one out of fourteen correctly but I have to imagine that it’s at least 1,000 to 1. Since the Coin Flip doesn’t differentiate between the match-ups, the coin has a 50/50 chance of picking a game correctly. So, the Coin Flip’s feat is the same as flipping a coin fourteen times and getting heads 13 times and tails once. I don’t know exactly how to figure this out but I can give a ballpark figure. Since the Coin did get one pick correct, we’ll give him/her 1 out of 2 which is what the odds should be on any given flip. If we take 1 out of 2 picks away from 1 out of 14, that leaves us with 0 out of 12. So, I’m guessing that the Coin Flip’s fate is somewhere in the ballpark of the odds of flipping 12 straight heads which I think is 1 out of 4096. I’m confident that the actual odds are different (and probably a little less) than that but it has to be somewhat close. My math skills leave a lot to be desired so don’t trust anything I say. I do feel comfortable saying that the odds were astronomically low of picking 1 out of 14 games correctly.

Regardless, the Coin Flip truly defied the odds this week in achieving the worst pick selection I’ve ever seen in my life. In fact, I would doubt that there are too many people out there that have seen a group of picks that were this poor. If there’s someone out there that can pass along the odds of picking one correct game out of 14 selections, I’d appreciate it. To be fair, the coin did get a push in one of the games so it’s more like one out of 13.

Overshadowed by the Coin’s record setting week was my 8-5-1 week which I desperately needed. That was good enough to put me at .500 for the season which is an accomplishment in itself considering how terrible my first two weeks were. Over the last seven weeks, I am 45-36-3. Aside from my 10-19-1 debacle in the first two weeks, I’ve actually managed to put together a respectable season. In just three weeks, I went from a one game lead to a fourteen game lead thanks, in large part, to some very bad luck by my worthy opponent.

Here are the totals to date:


Jake--------55-55-4
Coin Flip---41-69-4

Coin Flip Challenge week 8 picks

Of course, after I write an article stating that 80% of all Las Vegas lines this year have favored the home team, this week there are eight (!!!!) road teams that are favored. What are the odds of that? Even still, I’m much happier with this week’s lines than I was with last week’s nightmare. I was nervous about last week’s games and my nervousness proved to have merit as I sputtered to a 6-8 record. I don’t ever expect to win a game with the crazy things that happen in the NFL but I think there are some good picks this week. Hopefully I can put together a better than .500 week. If I’m going to do it, this is the week to get it done. After a few important weeks with big differences, this week doesn’t stand as big with nine similar picks. I guess if there’s good news, it’s that even if I get every pick wrong this week, I’m still guaranteed to be in the lead. Let’s hope (unless you hate me) that doesn’t happen.



det PK MIN

Now this line just isn’t fair. Detroit and Minnesota are two of the most pathetic football teams in the NFL. Neither team can do anything right except underachieve. They’re both very good at that. This might be the only coaching match-up of the year that Steve Mariucci has the advantage in. Charles Rogers and Roy Williams will likely return but it won’t matter since Mariucci and Ted Tollner are as conservative as the love child of Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter. The first team to three points wins. I think I’ll take Minnesota at home.

sd -6.5 NYJ

San Diego pummeled the New York Giants earlier this year and the Giants are twice as good as the Jets. A better way to look at it is a three-man tag team match featuring Drew Brees-Ladainian Tomlinson-Antonio Gates vs. Vinny Testaverde-Curtis Martin-Chris Baker. The Chargers should dominate this match-up and win by at least a touchdown. Picking Marty-ball on the road might come back to haunt me but the Chargers are the choice.

CLE -3 ten

I am surprised by this line. On one hand, you have a bad team that can’t score (the Browns). On the other hand, you have a bad team that can score (the Titans). The Browns just gave the Houston Texans their first win of the season last week. I’ll take the team that can score. The Titans should cover.

KC -4.5 oak

I’m beginning to despise Kansas City lines. KC could pretty much lose or win any game by ten points which makes it incredibly difficult to forecast the outcome. The Raiders are good enough to keep this game close but the Chiefs haven’t had a strong performance in a few weeks. I have a feeling that they’ll be on their game at home in a must-win game. I’ll take the Chiefs to win by six.

chi -3 NO

This game is just as brutal as the Cleveland/Tennessee game. New Orleans is terrible but whenever I think they have no chance, they end up winning. The only thing Aaron Brooks is good for is to anger millions of gamblers in America. He never has a good game until the 4th qtr, if that. I thought the Saints would come out strong against an offensively challenged Miami team last week since they were playing their first game in the state of Louisiana this year. Instead, they embarrassed themselves. My other choice is to take Kyle Orton on the road. He won in Detroit on the road last week which is akin to the Red Wings winning on the road against Alaska-Fairbanks. I’ll take the Bears. I just know whatever team I pick will implode.

cin -3 BAL

The Steelers made the Ravens look so much better than they actually are last week. The Ravens were without a). Ray Lewis, b). Ed Reed, and c). an offense. Yet, they still almost beat the Steelers on the road. However, the Steelers have struggled at home this year which makes the Ravens look a little less intimidating. I’ll take the Bengals to do what the Steelers should’ve done last week.

car -1.5 TB

Ok, I have to question Vegas on this one. Tampa Bay goes on the road against San Francisco (which has been 10+ point underdog four different times this year) and promptly loses and that earns them a miniscule + 1.5 line against an impressive Carolina team? Anything can happen in the NFL but this is the most favorable line I’ve seen all year. If I was a gambling man (and I’m not), I would ante up on this one. Carolina should easily cover. Unless, of course, you believe in Chris Simms.

JAX -13.5 hou

This is another line that seems a little awkward based on last week’s performances. The Jaguars went to St. Louis (who was without Bulger, Holt, and Bruce) and laid an egg. As a reward, Vegas gives the Jags a -13.5 spread over Houston? I don’t get it. The Jags have enough offensive troubles of their own. I’ll take the Texans to cover.

atl -2.5 MIA

I understand that road games are a whole different monster for NFL teams but if Atlanta isn’t 2.5 points better than Miami, then I don’t know anything anymore. I mentioned in my article NFL Road Rage that too many NFL teams roll over in road games simply because they don’t want to match the home team's energy. Well, I also added that road teams that know they’re better than the home team generally show up. In this case, I think Atlanta knows they’re better than Miami. So, I’ll take Atlanta.


nyg -11 SF

This is a tough game to call simply because the 49ers covered in a similar spread against Tampa Bay last week. However, I think that had more to do with Tampa Bay choosing to play the game without a quarterback. The 49ers are still terrible. The Giants aren’t the same team on the road but they’ve won four games this year by 17+ points. That tells me that the Giants drop the hammer on inferior teams. I’ll take the Giants.

sea -4 ARI

These two teams played already this year and Seattle won 37-12. So, yeah, -4 sounds reasonable. Vegas is dropping the ball on this game. Unless the Cardinals just signed the Fearsome Foursome circa 1970, they won’t be able to stop Shaun Alexander. Throw in the fact that you have Kurt Warner starting for the Cardinals without the services of Anquan Boldin and you have to wonder why this line isn’t -20. I’ll take the Seahawks.

pit -4.5 GB

The Steelers have been winning close games all year. They barely escaped by the hair on their chinny-chin-chins last week against a pathetic collection of serial killer (Ravens). The only way I would take the Steelers in a line of -4.5 is if the opponent was missing it’s pro-bowl wide receiver, pro-bowl running back, and back up running back while not having a defense. Oddly enough, the Packers are just that. But, it has come to my attention that the Steelers will be starting Charlie Batch at quarterback. While I think that the Steelers are a considerably better team than the Packers, I don’t think I have enough faith in Eastern Michigan University to take Batch on the road at Lambeau Field. I’ll take Green Bay.

WAS -3 PHI

Great. I wrote an article about how embarrassing Washington and Philly’s performances were for themselves and for the league and now these bozos square off against each other. Washington gave the worst performance I’ve ever seen in the NFL last week. They quit when Wellington Mara’s granddaughter was still singing the National Anthem. Maybe this week they’ll make it to halftime before quitting. On the other hand, the Eagles didn’t even starting playing until the 3rd qtr last week when they were getting destroyed in Denver. Throw in the fact that Philly might be without McNabb and TO is hobbled and you have to wonder if this game will end in a 0-0 tie. All I know is that this is a MUST win for Philly. I would like to think there is at least an ounce of professionalism on that team so I’ll take Philly to win and keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

ind -3 NE

The Colts really have no reason to win this game other than to prove to themselves that they can beat New England in Foxboro. The fact of the matter is that winning in Foxboro (and winning this game) really means nothing to the Colts. They’ll finish the season with the best record in the AFC and thus play all their playoff games in the friendly confines of the VCR Dome. It would not surprise me to see the Colts sluggish in this game. The only motivation they have is if they really believe they have a shot at finishing undefeated this year. With the teams left on the schedule, I think they do have a shot. I’m taking a leap of faith here but I think the Colts might play hard to maintain the perfect record and come away with the win.



My Picks:

Min
SD
Ten
KC
Chi
Cin
Car
Hou
Atl
NYG
Sea
GB
Phi
Ind


Coin Flip’s Picks:

Det
SD
Ten
KC
Chi
Cin
TB
Jax
Mia
SF
Ari
GB
Phi
NE

Coin Flip Challenge week 7 results

I was scared heading in to last week’s games. I didn't have a good feel for any of the 14 games on the schedule. I was just hoping for a .500 record. Surprisingly, I entered the Monday night game at 6-7 with a chance to finish at .500 and dodge a big bullet. Unfortunately, the Steelers decided to bring their “D” game against the overmatched Ravens. As a result, I finished at 6-8. I’ve had worse weeks but if I’m to meet my goal of a +.500 season, I can’t have weeks like that. The good news would be that a). I minimized the damage by coming close to .500 and b). The Coin Flip had an equally unimpressive 6-8 record. As a result, there were no changes in the standings. I’m still up by seven games. Over the last six weeks, I am 37-31-2.

Here are the yearly totals:

Jake-------47-50-3
Coin Flip---40-57-3

Coin Flip Challenge week 7 picks

I am going to enjoy last week’s miracle 9-4-1 performance right up until the 1pm kickoffs on Sunday. I’ll probably never see a week that good again. Judging from the spreads for this week’s games, I could be in trouble. This has been, by far, the toughest group of games to pick. Out of the fourteen games, I really have no idea what to expect in ten of them—not that I know what’s going to happen in the other four but at least I have some sort of reference point in those games. This week could get ugly. It would be a miracle if I could finish at .500.  What scares me even worse is that my picks differ from the Coin Flip’s on ten of fourteen games. That makes this the most important week to date. Even more frightening is that I like the Coin Flip’s picks better than mine! That’s not good. What follows is an unorganized/grasping at straws/totally in the dark analysis of the games this week.


NYG -2.5 was

The Giants impressed me last week by beating the Broncos. Granted, they needed a last second Eli Manning to Amani Toomer touchdown to pull it out but the Giants are a good team. Their annual collapse may not be so annual anymore. There’s really no reason to think these guys can’t make a run for the Wild Card or even the division title. On the other side, Washington scored more points than they’ve scored since Mark Rypien was in the league. Joe Gibbs has the ‘Skins playing at a very high level. Mark Brunell has been rejuvenated. The running game is working. The defense is strong. Basically what I’m saying is that I have no idea who’s going to win this game.  I would normally go with the home team in this scenario, but, I came across a statistic that troubles me. Washington averages 65 MORE yards per game on offense than the Giants and gives up 146 LESS yards per game on defense. That’s a big discrepancy. I’ll take Washington.

CIN -9 gb

The Packers started the season with potentially the best QB/RB/WR threesome in the NFC. Now, it’s just Favre. Javon Walker and Ahman Green are both out for the season which is bad news for a team that only had three better than average players entering the season to begin with. Throw in the fact that Najeh Davenport and Robert Ferguson are also out and you have to wonder who’s actually going to play for the Pack.  I don’t think the loss of Green will be that big of a deal for the Packers. Green was averaging a couple feet per carry anyway so their running game really can’t get any worse. I think Tony Fisher is good for a couple feet. I don’t think I would ever pick against Favre in a line as big as nine points. Just this season alone, the Packers have lost by 2, 1, 3, and 3. I might learn to regret that stance but I’m taking Green Bay to score two meaningless fourth quarter touchdowns to cover.

DET -3 chi

If the Lions had Dre Bly, Charles Rogers, and Roy Williams for this game, I would take Detroit. Instead, the Lions have R.W. McQuarterpounder, Mike “not Roy” Williams, and Scotty “Too Hotty” Vines. The Lions were dreadful on offense against the Browns. This is going to be a low scoring snoozer. In that case, I’ll take Chicago to keep it close.

CAR -7.5 min

Out of the five Minnesota games I’ve picked this year, I’ve been right exactly zero times. That’s right. I’m 0-5. But, I found a pattern from my failures. The Vikings always cover at home and never cover on the road. This game is on the road. I don’t need to know anything else. I’ll take Carolina.

oak -1 TEN

I don’t know what to do for this game. Oakland on the road scares me. Randy Moss has not been the deep threat that we’re used to seeing. On the other hand, Tennessee got blown out by Arizona last week. McNair will be playing instead of Volek but I don’t think that means too much. I just have a feeling that Oakland is going to win this game. Thus, I’ll take the Raiders.

DAL -8.5 ari

There’s no question in my mind that Dallas is going to win this game. The question becomes, will it be a close game, or a blowout? Arizona isn’t a good team anywhere but I can only imagine that they are even a worse team on the road. On the other hand, Drew Bledsoe is terrible on the road but plays OK at home. Dallas needs a win bad. I’ll take Dallas to dominate this game.

HOU -2 cle

Let me get this straight; Houston hasn’t won a game yet and probably will be without their starting QB and their starting RB, and they’re favored? I understand that Cleveland is terrible but this game should be a PK at the very least. I’ll take Super Bowl winning quarterback Trent Dilfer to cover.

NO -2 mia

These games are brutal. I suspect that New Orleans will be psyched to play a game in the state of Louisiana. That makes me think that the Saints might actually play inspired football. Although, New Orleans could not beat the Rams last week who were missing Marc Bulger, Tory Holt, Issac Bruce and their head coach. Miami has issues scoring which combined with the inspired Saints might mean a rare good performance by Jim Haslett and Co. So, I guess I’ll go with New Orleans.

jax -3 STL

If I picked St. Louis to win this game, I would have nightmares every night until Sunday. As tempting as that sounds, I’d prefer to sleep soundly so I’ll take Jacksonville to overwhelm the undermanned Rams.


SD -6 kc

I am a bit surprised by this line. Kansas City is a legitimate contender to make the playoffs and they have a prolific offense. San Diego is very much like Kansas City. If this game were being played in KC, I suspect that the Chiefs would be favored by two. So, that means Vegas thinks playing on the road is an eight point disadvantage for KC.  That’s quite a bit. I’ll take KC.

tb -11 SF

I don’t think anybody really knows what kind of team Tampa Bay will field with Chris Simms at quarterback. Part of the reason that they have been so good this season was the play of Brian Griese. Simms is no Griese. The only problem I have picking TB is that they aren’t a prolific scoring team no matter who is at QB. Still, after last week’s disaster, I don’t think I could take SF against a defense as good as Tampa’s. I’m reluctantly taking the Bucs to cover.

DEN -3.5 philly

Two weeks ago Denver was favored by three over New England and I followed my rule of never picking against New England in a spread of three or more. I lost, but I remained undeterred.  I have a similar rule for the Eagles. Philly has already beaten Kansas City and San Diego. I think those teams are every bit as good as Denver. I’ll take Philly to cover on the road.

NE -9 buff

This is a pretty big line for the Pats. They’ve struggled lately in getting pounded by Denver and San Diego. Buffalo wasn’t any better against Oakland last week. I would probably take New England with a line of -5 but -9 is just too high. I’ll take the Bills.

PITT -10 balt

Pittsburgh is a complete team and Baltimore is a disaster. Pittsburgh is at home and Baltimore is on the road. Pittsburgh is completely healthy and Baltimore is without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. I think this line is too small to be honest. I’m taking the Steelers.


My picks:

was
gb
chi
Car
Oak
Dal
Cle
NO
Jax
KC
TB
philly
Buff
Pitt

Coin Flip’s picks:

NYG
Cin
Det
Car
Ten
Ari
Hou
NO
stl
SD
TB
Den
NE
Pitt

Coin Flip Challenge Week 6 results

Week six turned out to be a big turning point in the Coin Flip Challenge. In the same week, one contestant had the best record of any week so far and the other contestant had the worst record of any week so far. Luckily for me, I was not the latter. I managed to pull off (don’t ask how because I don’t know) a 9-4-1 week. I feel confident and unsure about every pick I make so it never surprises me one way or another. But, to finally be rewarded with a good week feels pretty swell.

As good as my showing was, I was disappointed because I really should’ve done better. Green Bay was up 17-0 over Minnesota before losing on a 56 yard field goal. And, if you remember, I chose Buffalo to cover over Oakland simply because Randy Moss was not playing. However, Moss did play. Instead of basking in the 9-4-1 performance, I’m thinking of what could’ve been an unfathomable 11-2-1 performance. But, I won’t complain anymore. I’m content. I’ll tell you someone who’s not content and that’s the Coin Flip. He/she got mauled this week. My first two weeks (very bad) were put to shame by the Coin Flip’s 3-10-1 laugher. Here is how the standings look after the eventful week six:

Jake----------41-42-3
Coin Flip-----34-49-3

After falling as far as nine games below .500, I’m only one game away from glory. Remember, my goal for the season was, not only to stomp on the coin but, to finish above .500. I realize that’s asking a lot but after the first two weeks, I never thought I’d be this close to the .500 marker again. Over the last four weeks, I’m 31-23-2. Hopefully, I can keep it going this week.

Coin Flip Challenge week 6 picks

This should be an excited week in the ever boring Coin Flip Challenge. There are 8 of 14 picks that differ this week which means there could be a momentum changing swing in the standings. I still hold on to a slim one-game lead. I’m 22-19-1 over the last three weeks which is a marked improvement from the abysmal 10-19-1 start that I had. Sadly, out of the five weeks of this challenge, I’ve only been over .500 one time. The same can be said for the Coin Flip. We have a combined two weeks over .500 out of ten chances. No matter how you look at it, that’s dreadful, and embarrassing.



MIA -1 kc

Miami looked terrible last week against Tampa Bay even after Griese went down. The Dolphins haven’t changed at all from the last ten years. They have a pretty good defense and an undependable offense. Ricky Williams will need at least a year before he becomes effective again. There are no playmakers on offense. Miami doesn’t even have a good running game with Ricky and Ronnie Brown. Nick Saban is a good coach but even he will need more playmakers to make the Dolphins contenders. Kansas City, on the other hand, took down the Redskins who happen to be a little better than Miami. I’m very surprised by this line. I’ll take the Chiefs.

STL -3 no

I’m still miffed about the St. Louis/Indy game. The line was Indianapolis by 14. St. Louis led for a large part of this game even deep into the second half. Yet, they still managed to lose by 17 points. I took St. Louis to cover and it was the right decision. Unfortunately, all I have is a “loss” to show for it. New Orleans seemed lifeless after losing 52-3 to Green Bay but somehow they bounced back last week to cover the spread and almost beat Atlanta. Here is my dilemma. Whenever I pick against New Orleans, they cover. Whenever, I pick New Orleans, they don’t cover. It would be surprising to see New Orleans hang with St. Louis on the road. I have no idea how the loss of Marc Bulger will effect the Rams. They moved the ball pretty well against a very good Colts defense. If I pick New Orleans, I’ll second guess myself all weekend. The pick here is St. Louis.

gb -1.5 MINN

These games are just not getting any easier. Which underachieving, train wreck of a team do I think will win this game? This would be much easier if it were at Green Bay. Everyone knows how problematic dome stadiums have been for Favre. But, any stadium has been problematic for the Vikings. Green Bay’s last performance was a 52-3 thumping of New Orleans. One win is a hot streak for these to teams. That means Green Bay is the hot team. I’ll take Favre.

indy -15 HOU

I hate picking against Houston in large spread games because Carr/Davis/Johnson are as good of a threesome as any in the league. They’re going to breakout in one of these games. Add in the fact that this game is at Houston and I’m nauseous thinking about picking against Houston. However, David Carr gets sacked 142 times per game and the Texans just go blown out by Seattle who isn’t anywhere near Indy in terms of being a complete team. I’ll take Indy.

CIN -1 pitts

Did anyone watch the overtime between Jax/Pitts last week? It was quite possibly the worst played overtime in NFL history. Tommy Maddox was the man—in a bad way. The Steelers got the ball first and immediately drove the ball down to the Jags 25 yard line in two plays. The next play Pittsburgh’s running back fumbled but recovered his own fumble for a -5 loss. The next play Maddox fumbled and Jacksonville recovered! Jacksonville went nowhere and had to punt. Maddox immediately threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown to end the game. Big Ben is expected to be back and the Steelers are at home so I have to pick Pittsburgh.

PHILLY -3.5 sd

I am not comfortable picking against San Diego in a spread as big as -3.5 They went to New England under the same circumstances just a few weeks ago and they whipped the Patriots. I was wise to San Diego then and I’ll be wise to them this week too. I’ll take San Diego to keep this baby close.

CLE -3 det

I think Vegas has gone haywire over the Lions. Last week they were favored against Carolina? This week they’re underdogs to Cleveland? I don’t want to waste any more time talking about the Lions so I’ll just make my pick and move on to the next game. Detroit.

WASH -13 sf

Who would’ve thought that the Redskins would ever be favored by 13 points over anyone? The surprising thing is that I don’t necessarily disagree. Mark Brunell and Santana Moss have completely rejuvenated the Redskins offense. They surprised me big time by hanging with Kansas City on the road last week. When I initially saw the spread for this game, there’s no way that I was going to take San Francisco. But, I’ve convinced myself over the last five minutes that Washington is good enough to dominate San Fran at home.

SEA -3 dal

These two teams are mirror images of each other. Dallas was very disappointing against the Giants last week. The Cowboys were mired in a 7-6 battle of futility until late in the fourth quarter. Granted, Julius Jones was out but the juggernaut that attacked the Eagles was nowhere to be seen. I’ll take Seattle.

OAK -3 buff

I can understand this line if Randy Moss was playing but since he’s not, I’m flabbergasted by the Raiders being 3 point favorites. Buffalo isn’t great but they’re good enough to beat Oakland without Randy Moss. I’ll take Buffalo.

CHI -1 balt.

I would pay money to NOT have to watch this game. It’s going to be brutal. I’m warning you now, if this game is on wherever you live, make other arrangements. I do believe the Ravens defense is upset which means they will either kill the refs or kill Kyle Orton. I’m predicting that the refs are safe this week so I’m taking Baltimore. Plus, the Ravens get the touted return of the magnificent Kyle Boller.

ARI -3 tenn

I like games like this. Arizona is the home team and they’re favored. However, I think Tennessee is the better team. It’s an easy pick for me. If I get this game wrong, there will be no second guessing. Tennessee covers.

NYG -2 den

As good as Denver has been, this is an obvious indictment as to how awful Vegas thinks Jake Plummer is. The Broncos have won four in a row including a dismantling of the Patriots, yet, they are underdogs on the road against the Giants! Picking Jake Plummer on the road is like passing the car in front of you around a bend where you can’t see oncoming traffic. It’s possible that there’s not another car coming in the other direction for miles. Likewise, it’s possible that there’s a semi-truck immediately around the bend. If I were driving, I would definitely not pass in this situation. But, I’m not driving thus the consequences of being wrong won’t be certain death. So, I’ll take the better team and go with the Broncos.

ATL -7 nyj

This line sucks. The Jets have been playing very well on defense which makes me nervous. But, I like pain so I’m taking Atlanta to cover.


My picks:


KC
Stl.
GB
Indy
Pitts
SD
Det
Was
Sea
Buff
Balt
Tenn
Den
Atl


Coin Flip picks:


Mia
NO
GB
Indy
Cin
SD
Cle
SF
Sea
OAK
Balt.
Tenn
NYG
NYJ