NFL Week 16 prognostications

The Coin Flip Challenge is coming to a close with only two weeks to go. The Coin Flip missed out on a chance to pick up some ground this week by duplicating 12 of 16 of my picks. Barring a major catastrophe, I will be holding on to my Jalen Rose jersey. I know that bums a lot of you out and I apologize. I can only imagine your heartbreak week after week as my lead grew over the Coin Flip. If it’s any consolation, at least you had the dream for a good three months that you might be lucky enough to wear a Jalen Rose Denver Nuggets jersey at the beach next summer. Hope is a good thing. Never let go of it. The NFL playoff picture is fairly clear right now. The highlight of this week will undoubtedly be the monumental battle between the Detroit Lions and the New Orleans Saints. The loser will be rewarded handsomely. Merry Christmas!



CIN -14 buf

The Bills have been putrid on the road this year. They’ve lost road games by; 16, 12, 21, and 38. The Bengals are still playing for a first round bye so they won’t let up on the hapless Bills. If Cincy airs it out like they did against Detroit last week, this game will be a blowout. I am fearful of a repeat of what happened the last time Cincy played a bad team at home. They barely beat Cleveland in come-from-behind fashion. I could go either way on this game but over 60 minutes, Cincy should score at least 14 points more than Buffalo so I’ll go with Cincinnati.

pit -7.5 CLE

Cleveland is a nightmare for gamblers. The Browns have been very good at home this year having only lost one home game by more than six points. Cleveland lost by 12 at Pittsburgh earlier in the season but that was with Trent Dilfer at QB. Charlie Frye has given the Browns a boost in the arm since he took over. Pittsburgh has been playing well lately having beaten Chicago and Minnesota in dominating performances. If Cleveland can get the running game going, they will likely be able to stay within a touchdown. Cleveland’s defense is one of the best in the NFL. I’ll take Cleveland to keep this game close and cover the spread.

KC PK sd

These teams are basically the same. Both teams have great offenses. Both teams play in the same division. Both teams won’t make the playoffs. Both teams are better than teams that will make the playoffs. Both teams have up and down defenses. Both teams have unheralded quarterbacks. Both teams have old, successful coaches. I could probably go on for a few more minutes but you get the idea. When two teams are equal, and one team has an injured starting running back, and is playing on the road, I tend to go with the other team. I’ll take Kansas City to keep their December home winning streak going.

MIA -5.5 ten

Just a few weeks ago, I was wondering how the Lions were going to finish with a worse record than Miami. The Dolphins looked like a shoe-in to finish with a top five draft pick. The old Steve McNair showed up last week against Seattle. The Titans scored 24 straight points against Seattle at one point and barely missed the upset victory. Miami has won three games in a row by a total of seven points. Two of those victories were against Buffalo and the NY Jets. Miami might be playing better but they are barely beating bad teams. Steve McNair should be able to keep Tennessee in this game. I’ll take the Titans to cover.

jax -6.5 HOU

I have no idea who to pick in this game. Jacksonville is the ultimate play-to-the-level-of-its-opponents-team.  The Jags beat the Texans by seven at home earlier in the year. The Texans have played four straight close games. One would think that the Jags will break out offensively one of these games considering how weak their schedule has been. I will hope that the Jags stay in their offensive funk for one more week and go with Houston to cover.

NO -3 det

I’m going with Detroit all the way in this game. Both of these teams are terrible. Both of these teams need to lose. The Lions will be starting Joey Harrington who will be trying as hard as possible to prove he is the future QB in Detroit. The Lions also have a coach, Dick Jauron, who actually likes being the coach of the Detroit Lions. You can bet he’ll be treating this game like the Super Bowl. The Saints got the right idea last week when they handed their season over to Todd Bauman. If that’s not a sign that the Saints are gearing for the best possible draft pick, then I don’t know what is. The Lions will continue their ineptitude by actually winning a game they would be better off losing. I’ll take Detroit to, not only cover but, win.

CAR -5.5 dal

I can’t believe the Cowboys rolled over like that for the Redskins. I never thought I’d see a good team, coached by Bill Parcells, in a must win situation get destroyed like that. The NFC East might be the best division in football. The Giants beat the Redskins 36-0. The Redskins beat the Cowboys 35-7. Dallas beat the Giants 16-13. That tells me that each of those three teams has the ability to be very good. The biggest problem with these teams is consistency. In some games, these teams play like their Super Bowl winning teams from the 90’s. In other instances, they play like the Detroit Lions on a cold, winter day in Philadelphia circa 1995. Carolina got back to smoking teams with a win over New Orleans last week. This is a big game for Carolina who, despite being 10-4, hasn’t even clinched a spot in the playoffs yet. I would be surprised to see a Parcells team roll over two weeks in a row. They will come out fighting and lose a close battle. I’ll take Dallas to cover.


WAS -3 nyg

I’ve said it in this same spot many times before. Washington is a very good football team. They made a bad impression in their 36-0 no-show against the Giants earlier this year but they’ve quietly won three in a row and now find themselves in the playoffs if the season ended today. If Washington wins this game, they will almost certainly make the playoffs since their last game is against a bad Philly team. If someone would’ve told me before the season started that both Washington and the NY Giants were going to make the playoffs, I would’ve called them crazy. In fact, I’m still going to call them crazy. The Giants will win this game and keep Washington out of the playoffs. The Giants cover.

TB -3 atl

I was wrong about a few teams in my WWE-style NFL Preview. I was wrong about Baltimore, Chicago, NY Giants, and the Washington Redskins to name a few. One thing I was right about was the Atlanta Falcons. I didn’t see how Atlanta could make the playoffs this year. Their schedule was just too difficult for them to compete. Another team I was right about was the Tampa Buccaneers. The Bucs are a more complete team than Atlanta. They have a great defense with solid playmakers on offense. Joey Galloway from 1995 somehow made his way ten years into the future. The Bucs are just better than Atlanta. My guess is that TB will drive the final nail into the coffin of Atlanta’s playoff hopes. Tampa Bay should corral Vick and win by more than three.

STL -9.5 sf

This line is a shocker. You could’ve given me eight guesses at what this spread would be and I wouldn’t have come close to saying -9.5. The Rams are a bad, bad team. They’ve lost five of six games. The only victory was a come-from-behind overtime victory over the worst team in the NFL. These two teams played in week one with San Francisco coming away with the victory. How could St. Louis possibly be 9.5 point favorites? I could see a big line if SF had been playing terribly but they only lost by one at Jacksonville last week. I’ll take San Francisco to stay close to a team that isn’t much better than they are. SF covers.

ARI -1 phi

This game should be billed as John Navarre vs. Mike McMahon. If Kurt Warner weren’t out for the rest of the season, I would take Arizona. However, you couldn’t pay me to take John Navarre in an NFL game. He’s a good guy but being a good guy doesn’t mean you can win games in the NFL. I’ll take McMahon and the Eagles to win and move to 7-8. The fact that Philly could finish the season at 8-8 is surprising.

SEA -10 ind
This game is an example of why picking NFL games against the spread during the last two weeks of the season is such a toss-up. Who knows how long Indy will keep in its starters. Seattle can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win. That’s a big deal. Seattle certainly does not want to play away from home in the playoffs. My guess is that Indy’s starters will stick around for a quarter and then ride the bench. Seattle will likely try to send a message even if it’s against Indy’s second stringers. I’ll take Seattle to pull away in the second half.

DEN -13.5 oak

Denver should dominate the Raiders at home. The Broncos beat the Raiders by 14 in Oakland earlier in the year. However, I thought the same thing would happen just two weeks ago when Baltimore came to Denver. The Broncos barely beat the Ravens by two points. Even though the Broncos have been impressive for the majority of the year, they are still liable to come out flat against any team. Having said that, the Raiders have been deplorable lately. I’ll take Denver to run up the score at home.

chi -7 GB

I’ve been a big Chicago-doubter all year but even I was impressed with their destruction of Michael Vick and the Falcons last week. Soldier Field will be a big advantage for the Bears if they can get a home playoff game. The Bears have beaten Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta this season alone. That is extremely impressive. The Vikings were 0-3 against those three teams. The Lions were 0-3 against those three teams. The Packers were 1-2 against those teams. Despite not being flashy, the Bears are clearly the cream of the NFC North. It’s important to remember that when this season started, Green Bay had a Pro-Bowl running back, a Pro-Bowl wide receiver, and a Pro-Bowl tight end. All three of those players suffered season-ending injuries. If Brett Favre returns next season, he will surely be armed with a more explosive offense and a better team. I don’t know that Green Bay would be good enough to make the playoffs but they would undoubtedly be better than this year’s team. The Packers fate for this season might have been sealed when Green Bay’s GM let Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera leave in free agency. Whoever made that decision should be fired. I’ll take Green Bay to keep this game close. Chicago is a better team but Brett Favre should be sufficiently motivated to bounce back from last week’s miserable performance. The Packers should cover.


BAL -3 min

I didn’t get to see the Monday Night Football game thankfully. However, I did see the highlights. Was it me, or did all of Kyle Boller’s passes seem like ducks? That reminds me of the last few years when Joey Harrington would have a good game. The Detroit media would go crazy with the “Joey is finally coming around talk”. It inevitably only took the next week to debunk that notion. Well, I think Kyle Boller is a clone of Harrington. He may have the occasional good game but he’s not good. In fact, he’s terrible. The year the Boller has two good games in a row is the year that he’s playing in the Arena league. I’ll take Minnesota to win a close, defensive battle.

ne -6 NYJ

The Patriots don’t really have much to play for. They are pretty much locked into the #4 spot in the AFC. I really have no clue how this game will unfold. Will Belichick bench his starters for the second half? I can’t see him playing his starters very long with as many injuries as the Patriots have had this year. They need to be healthy for the playoffs if they have any chance of beating Indy or Denver. I’ll take Belichick to rest his starters and the Jets to cover.

My picks

CIN
CLE
KC
ten
HOU
NO
dal
nyg
TB
sf
phi
SEA
DEN
GB
min
NYJ


Coin Flip’s picks
CIN
pit
KC
ten
jax
NO
dal
nyg
atl
STL
phi
SEA
DEN
GB
min
NYJ