Friday, October 21, 2005

Coin Flip Challenge week 6 picks

This should be an excited week in the ever boring Coin Flip Challenge. There are 8 of 14 picks that differ this week which means there could be a momentum changing swing in the standings. I still hold on to a slim one-game lead. I’m 22-19-1 over the last three weeks which is a marked improvement from the abysmal 10-19-1 start that I had. Sadly, out of the five weeks of this challenge, I’ve only been over .500 one time. The same can be said for the Coin Flip. We have a combined two weeks over .500 out of ten chances. No matter how you look at it, that’s dreadful, and embarrassing.

MIA -1 kc

Miami looked terrible last week against Tampa Bay even after Griese went down. The Dolphins haven’t changed at all from the last ten years. They have a pretty good defense and an undependable offense. Ricky Williams will need at least a year before he becomes effective again. There are no playmakers on offense. Miami doesn’t even have a good running game with Ricky and Ronnie Brown. Nick Saban is a good coach but even he will need more playmakers to make the Dolphins contenders. Kansas City, on the other hand, took down the Redskins who happen to be a little better than Miami. I’m very surprised by this line. I’ll take the Chiefs.

STL -3 no

I’m still miffed about the St. Louis/Indy game. The line was Indianapolis by 14. St. Louis led for a large part of this game even deep into the second half. Yet, they still managed to lose by 17 points. I took St. Louis to cover and it was the right decision. Unfortunately, all I have is a “loss” to show for it. New Orleans seemed lifeless after losing 52-3 to Green Bay but somehow they bounced back last week to cover the spread and almost beat Atlanta. Here is my dilemma. Whenever I pick against New Orleans, they cover. Whenever, I pick New Orleans, they don’t cover. It would be surprising to see New Orleans hang with St. Louis on the road. I have no idea how the loss of Marc Bulger will effect the Rams. They moved the ball pretty well against a very good Colts defense. If I pick New Orleans, I’ll second guess myself all weekend. The pick here is St. Louis.

gb -1.5 MINN

These games are just not getting any easier. Which underachieving, train wreck of a team do I think will win this game? This would be much easier if it were at Green Bay. Everyone knows how problematic dome stadiums have been for Favre. But, any stadium has been problematic for the Vikings. Green Bay’s last performance was a 52-3 thumping of New Orleans. One win is a hot streak for these to teams. That means Green Bay is the hot team. I’ll take Favre.

indy -15 HOU

I hate picking against Houston in large spread games because Carr/Davis/Johnson are as good of a threesome as any in the league. They’re going to breakout in one of these games. Add in the fact that this game is at Houston and I’m nauseous thinking about picking against Houston. However, David Carr gets sacked 142 times per game and the Texans just go blown out by Seattle who isn’t anywhere near Indy in terms of being a complete team. I’ll take Indy.

CIN -1 pitts

Did anyone watch the overtime between Jax/Pitts last week? It was quite possibly the worst played overtime in NFL history. Tommy Maddox was the man—in a bad way. The Steelers got the ball first and immediately drove the ball down to the Jags 25 yard line in two plays. The next play Pittsburgh’s running back fumbled but recovered his own fumble for a -5 loss. The next play Maddox fumbled and Jacksonville recovered! Jacksonville went nowhere and had to punt. Maddox immediately threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown to end the game. Big Ben is expected to be back and the Steelers are at home so I have to pick Pittsburgh.

PHILLY -3.5 sd

I am not comfortable picking against San Diego in a spread as big as -3.5 They went to New England under the same circumstances just a few weeks ago and they whipped the Patriots. I was wise to San Diego then and I’ll be wise to them this week too. I’ll take San Diego to keep this baby close.

CLE -3 det

I think Vegas has gone haywire over the Lions. Last week they were favored against Carolina? This week they’re underdogs to Cleveland? I don’t want to waste any more time talking about the Lions so I’ll just make my pick and move on to the next game. Detroit.

WASH -13 sf

Who would’ve thought that the Redskins would ever be favored by 13 points over anyone? The surprising thing is that I don’t necessarily disagree. Mark Brunell and Santana Moss have completely rejuvenated the Redskins offense. They surprised me big time by hanging with Kansas City on the road last week. When I initially saw the spread for this game, there’s no way that I was going to take San Francisco. But, I’ve convinced myself over the last five minutes that Washington is good enough to dominate San Fran at home.

SEA -3 dal

These two teams are mirror images of each other. Dallas was very disappointing against the Giants last week. The Cowboys were mired in a 7-6 battle of futility until late in the fourth quarter. Granted, Julius Jones was out but the juggernaut that attacked the Eagles was nowhere to be seen. I’ll take Seattle.

OAK -3 buff

I can understand this line if Randy Moss was playing but since he’s not, I’m flabbergasted by the Raiders being 3 point favorites. Buffalo isn’t great but they’re good enough to beat Oakland without Randy Moss. I’ll take Buffalo.

CHI -1 balt.

I would pay money to NOT have to watch this game. It’s going to be brutal. I’m warning you now, if this game is on wherever you live, make other arrangements. I do believe the Ravens defense is upset which means they will either kill the refs or kill Kyle Orton. I’m predicting that the refs are safe this week so I’m taking Baltimore. Plus, the Ravens get the touted return of the magnificent Kyle Boller.

ARI -3 tenn

I like games like this. Arizona is the home team and they’re favored. However, I think Tennessee is the better team. It’s an easy pick for me. If I get this game wrong, there will be no second guessing. Tennessee covers.

NYG -2 den

As good as Denver has been, this is an obvious indictment as to how awful Vegas thinks Jake Plummer is. The Broncos have won four in a row including a dismantling of the Patriots, yet, they are underdogs on the road against the Giants! Picking Jake Plummer on the road is like passing the car in front of you around a bend where you can’t see oncoming traffic. It’s possible that there’s not another car coming in the other direction for miles. Likewise, it’s possible that there’s a semi-truck immediately around the bend. If I were driving, I would definitely not pass in this situation. But, I’m not driving thus the consequences of being wrong won’t be certain death. So, I’ll take the better team and go with the Broncos.

ATL -7 nyj

This line sucks. The Jets have been playing very well on defense which makes me nervous. But, I like pain so I’m taking Atlanta to cover.

My picks:


Coin Flip picks:



mayday said...

Nice to see you open up a lead on the coinflip. Seriously, though, if you MNF pick comes through you'll have had a hell of a week at 9-4-1. Maybe you're ready for the big time, like Matthew McConaughey.

Jake said...

Thanks, man. Although, I've got nothing on McConaughey. Maybe, if I'm REALLY lucky, I could be like Nick Lachey.


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