Week 17 in the NFL

Week 17 in the NFL marks the end of the Coin Flip Challenge. Part of me is sad because it made the season more interesting for me and hopefully for you as well. The other part of me is elated because picking NFL games against the spread is so frustrating. Things that should happen end up not happening far too often. I feel fortunate to be one game above .500 entering week 17. It would not surprise me at all if I bombed the last week and finished below .500. My confidence level for week 17 as a whole is next to nothing considering how many meaningless games there are. As far as the Challenge, I am thirteen games ahead of the Coin Flip. We only have nine differences for our week 17 picks. That means the Coin Flip cannot win. I have clinched the Coin Flip Challenge Championship. I have not decided whether or not I’m going to rest my starters during week 17.  I failed miserably in my attempt to get rid of my Jalen Rose jersey. There’s always next year. Anyhow, I think it’s entirely possible that nobody reads this so I’m going to say that I’m really He-Man. I do have a Battle-Cat and I fight Skeletor on a daily basis. Happy New Year!

SD -10 den

Denver has nothing to play for which means Mike Shanahan won’t play anyone good. However, San Diego really has nothing to play for either. They can’t make the playoffs and they can’t keep Denver from making the playoffs. The only thing they can do is keep Kansas City from making the playoffs. If SD hates KC that much, then maybe they’ll come out and play like it’s the Super Bowl. I find that highly unlikely. As a result, I really have no idea how fired up San Diego will be. If San Diego played Denver’s second string in San Diego earlier in the season, they would win by three touchdowns. My guess is that Denver’s back-ups will have a hard time putting points on the board. That should allow SD to cover the spread.

nyg -9.5 oak

Unlike SD and Denver, the Giants have plenty to play for. They have to win to make the playoffs. There will be no shortage of motivation in their match-up with the Raiders. However, it’s important to remember that the Giants and Eli Manning, specifically, are far less potent on the road than they are at home. The Raiders still have the ability to score some points. I would not be shocked if the Raiders lost by more than ten but considering Oakland’s big play capability and the Giants stagnation on the road, I’ll take Oakland to stay within 9.5 points.

IND -7 ari

I found this line kind of strange. The only explanation that I can come up with is that the oddsmakers are convinced that the Colts will try to win this game to avoid entering the playoffs on a three game losing streak. The Colts’ second stringers should not be seven point favorites over Arizona’s first stringers. I think it’s possible that Manning and Co. come out throwing to put this game away early. However, the Colts don’t seem too concerned about the possibility of a three game losing streak. They’re convinced they can turn it on when it matters. This game doesn’t matter so my pick is Arizona to cover.

bal -3.5 CLE

I felt foolish after I returned from Italy and saw the Pittsburgh/Cleveland box score. My brilliant self picked Cleveland to cover a 7.5 point spread against Pittsburgh. Despite the fact that the game was in Cleveland, the Browns lost 41-0. Granted, hindsight is 20/20 but that doesn’t make me feel any better. I am clueless as to what will transpire in this game between Baltimore and Cleveland. The Ravens are starting to play a little better but they don’t have Ray Lewis. Kyle Boller is the Joey Harrington of the AFC.  He only plays well when the team has been eliminated from the playoffs. So, do I go with the team that has a quarterback like Joey Harrington and a defense that’s missing its best player, or do I go with the team that lost last week by 41 points? I’m leaning towards Cleveland. The Redskins lost 36-0 earlier this year to the Giants but bounced back aggressively. It would be embarrassing for the Browns to get blown out two games in a row at home. I’ll take the Browns to cover.


buf -1 NYJ

I understand that anything can happen in the NFL but does anyone really think that the Jets could’ve gone into Cincinnati last week and dominated the Bengals? The Bills did just that. Both teams are far from being good. Both teams started season with high expectations. The Jets are playing at home but I think Buffalo is good enough to beat the Jets by two points. I’ll take the Bills to cover in a game with big-time draft implications.

car -4.5 ATL

Most people would probably expect Carolina to come in with more intensity than Atlanta. In theory, that should probably be the case. However, my guess is that Atlanta doesn’t particularly care for Carolina. At this point in the season, the only thing the Falcons have to play for is the joy of seeing Carolina not make the playoffs. That alone should be enough to keep this game close. I would not be surprised if Atlanta won the game. Carolina has been far from a sure thing on the road. If they underestimate Atlanta, the Panthers will be sitting in front of their televisions come playoff time. I’ll take Atlanta to come out motivated to spoil Carolina’s season.


MIN -4.5 chi

I find it interesting that Mike Tice didn’t get fired when the Vikings were the worst team in the NFL at the beginning of the season with sex parties, whizzinators, and scalping football tickets. However, after he guided the team out of that mess by making a playoff run, he’ll likely be fired. That sounds a little bit like the Bob Huggins fiasco at Cincinnati. Coaches are milked for every last drop and then shown the door with the most ludicrous explanations. At least Matt Millen had the decency to fire Steve Mariucci as soon as it became clear that he didn’t want him around anymore. If you’re going to fire a coach, you should do it as soon as you decide, not when it’s convenient. That’s unfair to everyone involved. I’m not making a case for Tice, rather I’m expressing my distaste for made-up excuses for firing a coach when the coach wasn’t fired for far more convincing reasons earlier in the tenure. Chicago has nothing to play for. A few weeks ago, I thought this game would decide the division. A combination of the Vikings losing and the Bears winning made this game irrelevant. The problem that I’m having with this game is that the Bears second unit might be just as good as its first unit. Kyle Orton is not much of a drop-off, if any, from Rex Grossman. The Vikings turned their season around by feasting on terrible teams. They failed in virtually every match-up with a legitimate team. The Bears, even with their back-ups, are good enough to beat the Vikings. I’ll take Chicago to cover in a meaningless game.


KC -8 cin

I was troubled by the Bengals signing of Carson Palmer through 2014 and it has nothing to do with the contract. I had to do a double take when I saw “2014”. That made me feel incredibly old. I guess I never realized that 2014 was so close that current contracts are now reaching that year. That was a buzzkill. In the interest of keeping everyone feeling young, sports contracts should be limited to three years. As for the game, the Bengals actually have something to play for. They can take the #3 seed in the AFC with a win. If they lose and New England wins, the Patriots would get the #3 seed. My guess is that the Bengals won’t simply hand the victory over to the Chiefs. The Chiefs should win this game but this line is way too high unless the Bengals plan on benching everyone. I’ll take Cincy to keep this game close and cover the spread.

PIT -13 det

The Lions are ridiculous. I bet Joey Harrington was thrilled about beating the Saints. That victory dropped Detroit to the 10th spot in the draft. If it weren’t for the completely unnecessary and counterproductive last minute heroics of Harrington, the Lions would be at #5 with a great chance of moving into the top three. Instead, the Lions have five wins instead of four. Congratulations to the Lions. You stunk and have nothing to show for it except for a meaningless victory over the New Orleans Saints. The Lions would’ve ruined Vince Young’s career anyway. The Steelers should dominate this game. The Lions are bad. They have zero good attributes as a football team. The Steelers will destroy the Lions on both sides of the ball. I’ll take Pittsburgh to win by 1,000 points and cover the spread. On a side note, as I mentioned, I was in Rome for the last week. There were no American channels or English speaking channels with the exception of CNN International. CNN International has a ticker at the bottom of the screen. On the ticker is a “Sports Bar”. The Sports Bar devotes 99% of its information to European sports. If you’re lucky, you might see one tidbit about American sports. For example, the ticker said “Former MLB reliever charged with robbery” and another said, “Monday Night Football ends”. I didn’t find out that Jeff Reardon was the former MLB pitcher, or that the Patriots beat the Jets on MNF until we returned home. Anyhow, I was watching the ticker on Christmas Day and this rolled across the screen “New Orleans 12 Detroit 13”. I was trying with all my might to think of another sport that would pit New Orleans against Detroit. It didn’t specify that it was an NFL game. Then I started thinking that maybe it was a misprint. Slowly, I came to the realization that Detroit had beaten New Orleans. I felt like I was punched in the gut by Joey Harrington 6,000 miles away in Italy. I hate the Lions.

NE -6 mia

Miami always gives Tom Brady problems. I don’t know why this is the case but I do know that it is the case. The Dolphins can’t make the playoffs but they’ve known that for quite some time. That hasn’t stopped them from turning their season around. New England still has something to play for since the #3 seed is up for grabs. If the Bengals can beat the Colts in the playoffs and the Patriots can beat the Broncos, the Pats would much rather have Cincy come to Foxboro than vice versa. The Patriots should win this game but with Miami playing well, it won’t be easy. The Dolphins should cover. Watch out for Miami next season.

TB -13 no

Tampa Bay has a lot to play for. They can clinch a first round home game with a victory. The Saints have nothing to play except to hold on to the #2 pick in the draft that was gift-wrapped to them by the Lions. If the Saints have any sense at all, they will let Tampa blow them out. The Saints would then be guaranteed either Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart, or Vince Young. That’s a cause worth losing for. I’ll take Tampa Bay to crush New Orleans.

hou -2 SF

What are the chances that one of these teams tries to lose? Nobody would ever come out and admit it but isn’t the temptation too great to not at least consider it? It wouldn’t take much to lose on purpose. For instance, the Lions could’ve easily dropped the game to the Saints without a heroic last second win and nobody would’ve thought twice about it. If I’m one of these teams, and I have the ball with one minute to go and I’m losing, I would call a conservative drive. People want to make such a big deal about having respect for the game and whatnot. That’s hogwash. There is nothing wrong with trying to get the #1 pick in the draft. There are no rules against losing the game on purpose unless you’re betting on that game. These teams should be doing everything possible to lose this game. It shouldn’t even be a secret. Can you imagine two teams trying to lose? You’d have teams giving themselves safeties time and time again just to lose. The last team with the ball would be the loser because they would give themselves the last safety. It would be great to watch.  Why would any team intentionally try to NOT get Reggie Bush? People make such a big deal about trying to lose a game but it happens all the time. How would that be any different than scores of NFL teams benching their starters in week 17 to rest them for the playoffs? Clearly those teams are not trying to win the game. Yet, that’s a widely accepted practice. Anyhow, intentionally losing will never happen because a). NFL people aren’t smart enough and b). there is a negative stigma attached to it for whatever reasons. The winner of this game will be a big time loser. I’ll take San Francisco to edge out Houston and lose out on the three elite prospects in the 2006 draft. Houston should send SF a nice bouquet of cheeses to show its gratitude.


JAX -3.5 ten

I’m actually considering just taking the loss on this game without picking a winner. There’s about a 3% chance that I’ll get it right. Neither team has anything to play for. Jacksonville finally broke out last week by crushing Houston at my expense. My completely uneducated and likely incorrect guess is that Jacksonville’s offense will stagnate without its starters allowing Tennessee to stay close. I’ll take the Titans to cover.

GB -3.5 sea

I want to make something clear before I go any further. The Coin Flip Challenge was a contest where I picked every game in the NFL. If I were actually betting on NFL games, I would likely pick the four or five games that I was most confident in each week. Considering that I’m slightly above .500 on the season while picking every game, I think I could fare better if I only picked games that I was confident in. I would never, ever bet on a game like this one between Green Bay and Seattle. I have no clue what’s going to happen. I have no idea how good Seattle’s backups are. I have no idea how motivated Green Bay will be or if that even matters. I will say that it would not surprise me if Brett Favre throws for 400 yards and four touchdowns because it’s a home game against a bunch of back-ups. I like happy endings so I’ll take Green Bay to trounce what amounts to the New Orleans Saints.

WAS -7.0 phi

I can’t believe that Washington and the NY Giants will both make the playoffs. Throw in the fact that the Chicago Bears made the playoffs too and I’m all but convinced that we’ve been transported to 1990. I can honestly say I didn’t see any of that coming. Despite this being a divisional game, I don’t see Philly having the talent to stick with the Redskins on the road. Plus, the Skins have been on a role with just Clinton Portis dressing up in crazy costumes. Now, the whole team dressed up. That’s not a good sign for the Eagles. On a side note, I love the Portis/costume thing. I am most entertained by the names he comes up with. I now find myself being a big Clinton Portis fan. I’ll take Washington to take advantage of the talent differential and cover the spread.

DAL -13 stl

Does St. Louis have a potent offense capable of putting up points, or do they have the worst offense in the league? I have no idea. They have Issac Bruce, Tory Holt, Stephen Jackson, Marshall Faulk and Orlando Pace just to name a few. Yet, they’ve been awful. This is another game that I’m clueless about. Dallas needs to win so they’ll probably open up the passing game again like they did against Philly earlier in the season. Thirteen points is a big number for Dallas. I’ll take St. Louis to stick around and hopefully lose by 12 points.


My picks:

SD
oak
ari
CLE
buf
ATL
chi
cin
PIT
mia
TB
SF
ten
GB
was
stl


Coin Flip’s picks:

SD
oak
IND
CLE
buf
ATL
chi
KC
det
NE
no
hou
JAX
sea
phi
stl

Merry Christmas

Since I will be in Italy for the next week, I'll be taking a brief hiatus from posting. For those of you that are looking for some reading material, I'll link my 2005/6 Bowl Extravaganza. It's a long read so it might hold you over for a couple of days. For those of you that have read the whole thing, I apologize for not being able to keep up with you. I appreciate all of the comments that you have left over the last half a year. It has been my pleasure to give you something to read on a semi-regular basis.

Merry Christmas!

Jake

NFL Week 16 prognostications

The Coin Flip Challenge is coming to a close with only two weeks to go. The Coin Flip missed out on a chance to pick up some ground this week by duplicating 12 of 16 of my picks. Barring a major catastrophe, I will be holding on to my Jalen Rose jersey. I know that bums a lot of you out and I apologize. I can only imagine your heartbreak week after week as my lead grew over the Coin Flip. If it’s any consolation, at least you had the dream for a good three months that you might be lucky enough to wear a Jalen Rose Denver Nuggets jersey at the beach next summer. Hope is a good thing. Never let go of it. The NFL playoff picture is fairly clear right now. The highlight of this week will undoubtedly be the monumental battle between the Detroit Lions and the New Orleans Saints. The loser will be rewarded handsomely. Merry Christmas!



CIN -14 buf

The Bills have been putrid on the road this year. They’ve lost road games by; 16, 12, 21, and 38. The Bengals are still playing for a first round bye so they won’t let up on the hapless Bills. If Cincy airs it out like they did against Detroit last week, this game will be a blowout. I am fearful of a repeat of what happened the last time Cincy played a bad team at home. They barely beat Cleveland in come-from-behind fashion. I could go either way on this game but over 60 minutes, Cincy should score at least 14 points more than Buffalo so I’ll go with Cincinnati.

pit -7.5 CLE

Cleveland is a nightmare for gamblers. The Browns have been very good at home this year having only lost one home game by more than six points. Cleveland lost by 12 at Pittsburgh earlier in the season but that was with Trent Dilfer at QB. Charlie Frye has given the Browns a boost in the arm since he took over. Pittsburgh has been playing well lately having beaten Chicago and Minnesota in dominating performances. If Cleveland can get the running game going, they will likely be able to stay within a touchdown. Cleveland’s defense is one of the best in the NFL. I’ll take Cleveland to keep this game close and cover the spread.

KC PK sd

These teams are basically the same. Both teams have great offenses. Both teams play in the same division. Both teams won’t make the playoffs. Both teams are better than teams that will make the playoffs. Both teams have up and down defenses. Both teams have unheralded quarterbacks. Both teams have old, successful coaches. I could probably go on for a few more minutes but you get the idea. When two teams are equal, and one team has an injured starting running back, and is playing on the road, I tend to go with the other team. I’ll take Kansas City to keep their December home winning streak going.

MIA -5.5 ten

Just a few weeks ago, I was wondering how the Lions were going to finish with a worse record than Miami. The Dolphins looked like a shoe-in to finish with a top five draft pick. The old Steve McNair showed up last week against Seattle. The Titans scored 24 straight points against Seattle at one point and barely missed the upset victory. Miami has won three games in a row by a total of seven points. Two of those victories were against Buffalo and the NY Jets. Miami might be playing better but they are barely beating bad teams. Steve McNair should be able to keep Tennessee in this game. I’ll take the Titans to cover.

jax -6.5 HOU

I have no idea who to pick in this game. Jacksonville is the ultimate play-to-the-level-of-its-opponents-team.  The Jags beat the Texans by seven at home earlier in the year. The Texans have played four straight close games. One would think that the Jags will break out offensively one of these games considering how weak their schedule has been. I will hope that the Jags stay in their offensive funk for one more week and go with Houston to cover.

NO -3 det

I’m going with Detroit all the way in this game. Both of these teams are terrible. Both of these teams need to lose. The Lions will be starting Joey Harrington who will be trying as hard as possible to prove he is the future QB in Detroit. The Lions also have a coach, Dick Jauron, who actually likes being the coach of the Detroit Lions. You can bet he’ll be treating this game like the Super Bowl. The Saints got the right idea last week when they handed their season over to Todd Bauman. If that’s not a sign that the Saints are gearing for the best possible draft pick, then I don’t know what is. The Lions will continue their ineptitude by actually winning a game they would be better off losing. I’ll take Detroit to, not only cover but, win.

CAR -5.5 dal

I can’t believe the Cowboys rolled over like that for the Redskins. I never thought I’d see a good team, coached by Bill Parcells, in a must win situation get destroyed like that. The NFC East might be the best division in football. The Giants beat the Redskins 36-0. The Redskins beat the Cowboys 35-7. Dallas beat the Giants 16-13. That tells me that each of those three teams has the ability to be very good. The biggest problem with these teams is consistency. In some games, these teams play like their Super Bowl winning teams from the 90’s. In other instances, they play like the Detroit Lions on a cold, winter day in Philadelphia circa 1995. Carolina got back to smoking teams with a win over New Orleans last week. This is a big game for Carolina who, despite being 10-4, hasn’t even clinched a spot in the playoffs yet. I would be surprised to see a Parcells team roll over two weeks in a row. They will come out fighting and lose a close battle. I’ll take Dallas to cover.


WAS -3 nyg

I’ve said it in this same spot many times before. Washington is a very good football team. They made a bad impression in their 36-0 no-show against the Giants earlier this year but they’ve quietly won three in a row and now find themselves in the playoffs if the season ended today. If Washington wins this game, they will almost certainly make the playoffs since their last game is against a bad Philly team. If someone would’ve told me before the season started that both Washington and the NY Giants were going to make the playoffs, I would’ve called them crazy. In fact, I’m still going to call them crazy. The Giants will win this game and keep Washington out of the playoffs. The Giants cover.

TB -3 atl

I was wrong about a few teams in my WWE-style NFL Preview. I was wrong about Baltimore, Chicago, NY Giants, and the Washington Redskins to name a few. One thing I was right about was the Atlanta Falcons. I didn’t see how Atlanta could make the playoffs this year. Their schedule was just too difficult for them to compete. Another team I was right about was the Tampa Buccaneers. The Bucs are a more complete team than Atlanta. They have a great defense with solid playmakers on offense. Joey Galloway from 1995 somehow made his way ten years into the future. The Bucs are just better than Atlanta. My guess is that TB will drive the final nail into the coffin of Atlanta’s playoff hopes. Tampa Bay should corral Vick and win by more than three.

STL -9.5 sf

This line is a shocker. You could’ve given me eight guesses at what this spread would be and I wouldn’t have come close to saying -9.5. The Rams are a bad, bad team. They’ve lost five of six games. The only victory was a come-from-behind overtime victory over the worst team in the NFL. These two teams played in week one with San Francisco coming away with the victory. How could St. Louis possibly be 9.5 point favorites? I could see a big line if SF had been playing terribly but they only lost by one at Jacksonville last week. I’ll take San Francisco to stay close to a team that isn’t much better than they are. SF covers.

ARI -1 phi

This game should be billed as John Navarre vs. Mike McMahon. If Kurt Warner weren’t out for the rest of the season, I would take Arizona. However, you couldn’t pay me to take John Navarre in an NFL game. He’s a good guy but being a good guy doesn’t mean you can win games in the NFL. I’ll take McMahon and the Eagles to win and move to 7-8. The fact that Philly could finish the season at 8-8 is surprising.

SEA -10 ind
This game is an example of why picking NFL games against the spread during the last two weeks of the season is such a toss-up. Who knows how long Indy will keep in its starters. Seattle can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win. That’s a big deal. Seattle certainly does not want to play away from home in the playoffs. My guess is that Indy’s starters will stick around for a quarter and then ride the bench. Seattle will likely try to send a message even if it’s against Indy’s second stringers. I’ll take Seattle to pull away in the second half.

DEN -13.5 oak

Denver should dominate the Raiders at home. The Broncos beat the Raiders by 14 in Oakland earlier in the year. However, I thought the same thing would happen just two weeks ago when Baltimore came to Denver. The Broncos barely beat the Ravens by two points. Even though the Broncos have been impressive for the majority of the year, they are still liable to come out flat against any team. Having said that, the Raiders have been deplorable lately. I’ll take Denver to run up the score at home.

chi -7 GB

I’ve been a big Chicago-doubter all year but even I was impressed with their destruction of Michael Vick and the Falcons last week. Soldier Field will be a big advantage for the Bears if they can get a home playoff game. The Bears have beaten Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta this season alone. That is extremely impressive. The Vikings were 0-3 against those three teams. The Lions were 0-3 against those three teams. The Packers were 1-2 against those teams. Despite not being flashy, the Bears are clearly the cream of the NFC North. It’s important to remember that when this season started, Green Bay had a Pro-Bowl running back, a Pro-Bowl wide receiver, and a Pro-Bowl tight end. All three of those players suffered season-ending injuries. If Brett Favre returns next season, he will surely be armed with a more explosive offense and a better team. I don’t know that Green Bay would be good enough to make the playoffs but they would undoubtedly be better than this year’s team. The Packers fate for this season might have been sealed when Green Bay’s GM let Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera leave in free agency. Whoever made that decision should be fired. I’ll take Green Bay to keep this game close. Chicago is a better team but Brett Favre should be sufficiently motivated to bounce back from last week’s miserable performance. The Packers should cover.


BAL -3 min

I didn’t get to see the Monday Night Football game thankfully. However, I did see the highlights. Was it me, or did all of Kyle Boller’s passes seem like ducks? That reminds me of the last few years when Joey Harrington would have a good game. The Detroit media would go crazy with the “Joey is finally coming around talk”. It inevitably only took the next week to debunk that notion. Well, I think Kyle Boller is a clone of Harrington. He may have the occasional good game but he’s not good. In fact, he’s terrible. The year the Boller has two good games in a row is the year that he’s playing in the Arena league. I’ll take Minnesota to win a close, defensive battle.

ne -6 NYJ

The Patriots don’t really have much to play for. They are pretty much locked into the #4 spot in the AFC. I really have no clue how this game will unfold. Will Belichick bench his starters for the second half? I can’t see him playing his starters very long with as many injuries as the Patriots have had this year. They need to be healthy for the playoffs if they have any chance of beating Indy or Denver. I’ll take Belichick to rest his starters and the Jets to cover.

My picks

CIN
CLE
KC
ten
HOU
NO
dal
nyg
TB
sf
phi
SEA
DEN
GB
min
NYJ


Coin Flip’s picks
CIN
pit
KC
ten
jax
NO
dal
nyg
atl
STL
phi
SEA
DEN
GB
min
NYJ

Random thoughts in my head

-The San Diego Chargers will be one of the best teams to not make the playoffs in NFL history. They will be right there with the ’91 San Francisco 49ers. That Niners team was #3 in the NFL in total offense and #5 in total defense. They lost six games by a total of 26 points. They outscored their opponents 393-239. I don’t believe the Washington Redskins would’ve won the Super Bowl if SF would’ve made the playoffs.

- I think the Big Ten is going to go 3-4 in its bowl games.

-Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson are two of the top ten running backs ever. Alexander has a combination of size and speed that very few other backs in NFL history can match, if any. Tomlinson is a perfect back. They are single handily giving respect to the Chargers and Seahawks. Those two teams had been irrelevant for a long time.

-There is no way that the Lions will lose to the Saints. The Lions are bad but when have they ever done anything right? Well, losing to the Saints would be the right thing to do.

-The Pistons have to keep playing the regular season with playoff-like focus. They have to finish with a better record than the Spurs to get homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. If the Pistons had homecourt last year, they would still be the NBA Champs.

-The #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament will be Duke, Memphis, Connecticut, and the final #1 seed will be between Illinois, Villanova, Gonzaga, and Washington.

-The Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) will get three teams into the NCAA tourney.

-The Tigers are still the 4th best team in the Central division. You can thank Mike Illitch for his “show me first” stance. Illitch says he’ll invest money into the team if the team shows him something. Doesn’t 15 years of neglect preclude the team from being able show him something before he puts money in? If Jim Leyland is the greatest manger in MLB history, the Tigers might be in a playoff hunt. If Leyland is merely a good manager, the Tigers will lose 90 games again.

-I’m officially rooting for the Patriots to win another Super Bowl. There isn’t an NFC team that is good enough or deserving enough to win the Super Bowl. The only teams in the AFC that are good enough are the Colts and Broncos. I can’t stand Manning so I won’t root for him. I’m not a big Broncos fan either. So, go Pats!

-I think Ron Artest could put an NBA franchise over the top. If an average NBA team could acquire Artest without hurting their nucleus, there could be a new title contender.

-I think the Michigan basketball team will go 8-8 in the Big Ten and make the NCAA tournament giving the Big Ten seven teams in the Big Dance.

-The Big East will set the all-time record for teams in the NCAA tournament with eight. Only three of those teams will be better than the worst tournament team from the Big Ten or ACC (UCONN, Villanova, and Louisville).

-I think this year’s Stanley Cup winner will be a totally off the wall team. 21 of the 30 NHL teams are above .500.

-I think the Red Sox made the steal of the off-season by acquiring Mark Loretta from the San Diego Padres for Doug Mirabelli. I can’t believe that trade happened. Loretta could possibly be the most underrated player in MLB.

-I don’t think the Red Sox have any idea how to run their team. They let Pedro go after they won the World Series. They got booted from the playoffs this year because they didn’t have pitching. If you’re going to give Pedro the boot, you better have another dominating pitcher in mind to replace him. Then, they let Johnny Damon go to the Yankees. The Red Sox may not make the playoffs this year. That would be amazing considering how good they were two years ago. You can’t let superstar players go without replacing them with equally talented players.

The Vince Young Bowl

The Christmas Eve showdown between the Lions and Saints will be a crucial game for the future of these two franchises. The loser will have a shot at one of the two franchise-altering quarterbacks in the 2006 draft. The winner could very well find themselves out of the top ten. That would be a crude reward for an abysmal season considering how top heavy the draft will be with superstar caliber athletes. This game is not to be confused with the equally important Reggie Bush Bowl that will be played on the last week of the season between Houston and San Francisco.

Here is where the draft order stands entering week 16:

1). Houston
2). San Francisco
3). Green Bay
4). NY Jets
5). New Orleans
6). Arizona
7). Tennessee
8). Buffalo
9). Oakland
10). Detroit

If Detroit loses to New Orleans, they would pass New Orleans. Also, the NY Jets play the Buffalo Bills. The Lions will also pass the winner of that game. The Raiders play against two of the best teams in the NFL which will make their strength of schedule sky-rocket.

That would put the Lions at 7th and the standings would look like this:

1). Houston
2). San Francisco
3). Green Bay
4). NY Jets
5). Arizona
6). Tennessee
7). Detroit

If Arizona, Tennessee, and Detroit lose their remaining games, their strength of schedule will be extremely close.

If you factor in opponent strength of schedule by adding in the records of each team’s two remaining opponents, here is where they stand:

Arizona 113-111
Tennessee 114-110
Detroit 114-110

These teams are so close in SOS that anything could happen with these three teams. All Detroit fans can do is hope that the teams that Detroit has played this year lose. If Detroit can get the tiebreaker over Arizona and Tennessee the Lions would climb to 5th in the draft which might be good enough to land Vince Young.

Here is how the first five picks might unfold under those circumstances:

1). Houston-Reggie Bush
2). San Francisco- D’Brickashaw Furgeson or trade
3). Green Bay- A trade could be likely since GB took a QB in 1st round last year
4). NY Jets- Could take a QB so we’ll go with Leinart
5). Detroit- Vince Young


In my projections so far, I haven’t assumed anything crazy. The only premise that I used was if Detroit loses to New Orleans. If that happens, the Lions could very well get the 5th pick if they can sneak ahead of Tennessee and Arizona in the tie breaker.

Having said that, there are some unexpected events that could help Detroit’s draft position. Here is what you should be rooting for if you’re a Lions fan:


1). The winner of the Houston Texans/San Francisco 49ers game (Reggie Bush Bowl) also wins this week to finish at 4-12. Each team’s SOS would be better than the Lions. The Texans play Jacksonville and the Niners play St. Louis.

2). Tennessee beats Miami this week or Jacksonville next week.

3). Arizona beats Philly this week or Indy’s second string in week 17. (I can guarantee this won’t happen with Kurt Warner out for the season and John Navarre at quarterback)

4). NY Jets beats Buffalo

5). Green Bay beats Chicago or Seattle. Green Bay could very well beat Seattle at home in week 17. The Seahawks will likely rest their starters and Brett Favre may be pumped up to possibly play his last NFL game.

If:

-Houston or SF win their last two games
-Tennessee beats Miami
-Arizona beats Philly or Indy
-NY Jets beat Buffalo
-Green Bay beats Chicago or Seattle
-Buffalo finishes with a higher SOS than Detroit
-Detroit loses to New Orleans.

Then, the Lions would own the 2nd pick in the 2006 NFL draft. It would take a miracle for that to happen. As it stands now, the Lions would have a 1/3 shot at the #5 pick if they simply lose to the New Orleans Saints.