Wednesday, December 21, 2005

The Vince Young Bowl


The Christmas Eve showdown between the Lions and Saints will be a crucial game for the future of these two franchises. The loser will have a shot at one of the two franchise-altering quarterbacks in the 2006 draft. The winner could very well find themselves out of the top ten. That would be a crude reward for an abysmal season considering how top heavy the draft will be with superstar caliber athletes. This game is not to be confused with the equally important Reggie Bush Bowl that will be played on the last week of the season between Houston and San Francisco.

Here is where the draft order stands entering week 16:

1). Houston
2). San Francisco
3). Green Bay
4). NY Jets
5). New Orleans
6). Arizona
7). Tennessee
8). Buffalo
9). Oakland
10). Detroit

If Detroit loses to New Orleans, they would pass New Orleans. Also, the NY Jets play the Buffalo Bills. The Lions will also pass the winner of that game. The Raiders play against two of the best teams in the NFL which will make their strength of schedule sky-rocket.

That would put the Lions at 7th and the standings would look like this:

1). Houston
2). San Francisco
3). Green Bay
4). NY Jets
5). Arizona
6). Tennessee
7). Detroit

If Arizona, Tennessee, and Detroit lose their remaining games, their strength of schedule will be extremely close.

If you factor in opponent strength of schedule by adding in the records of each team’s two remaining opponents, here is where they stand:

Arizona 113-111
Tennessee 114-110
Detroit 114-110

These teams are so close in SOS that anything could happen with these three teams. All Detroit fans can do is hope that the teams that Detroit has played this year lose. If Detroit can get the tiebreaker over Arizona and Tennessee the Lions would climb to 5th in the draft which might be good enough to land Vince Young.

Here is how the first five picks might unfold under those circumstances:

1). Houston-Reggie Bush
2). San Francisco- D’Brickashaw Furgeson or trade
3). Green Bay- A trade could be likely since GB took a QB in 1st round last year
4). NY Jets- Could take a QB so we’ll go with Leinart
5). Detroit- Vince Young


In my projections so far, I haven’t assumed anything crazy. The only premise that I used was if Detroit loses to New Orleans. If that happens, the Lions could very well get the 5th pick if they can sneak ahead of Tennessee and Arizona in the tie breaker.

Having said that, there are some unexpected events that could help Detroit’s draft position. Here is what you should be rooting for if you’re a Lions fan:


1). The winner of the Houston Texans/San Francisco 49ers game (Reggie Bush Bowl) also wins this week to finish at 4-12. Each team’s SOS would be better than the Lions. The Texans play Jacksonville and the Niners play St. Louis.

2). Tennessee beats Miami this week or Jacksonville next week.

3). Arizona beats Philly this week or Indy’s second string in week 17. (I can guarantee this won’t happen with Kurt Warner out for the season and John Navarre at quarterback)

4). NY Jets beats Buffalo

5). Green Bay beats Chicago or Seattle. Green Bay could very well beat Seattle at home in week 17. The Seahawks will likely rest their starters and Brett Favre may be pumped up to possibly play his last NFL game.

If:

-Houston or SF win their last two games
-Tennessee beats Miami
-Arizona beats Philly or Indy
-NY Jets beat Buffalo
-Green Bay beats Chicago or Seattle
-Buffalo finishes with a higher SOS than Detroit
-Detroit loses to New Orleans.

Then, the Lions would own the 2nd pick in the 2006 NFL draft. It would take a miracle for that to happen. As it stands now, the Lions would have a 1/3 shot at the #5 pick if they simply lose to the New Orleans Saints.

5 comments:

Lombaowski said...

Jake who would the Lions take at #2 if they had it? What about at #3 or #4?

Hwood said...

What if Vince Young doesn't come out?

Matt S said...

I think if the Lions are in the Top 5 they take one of the following: Bush, Leinart, Young, AJ Hawk, or D'Brickshaw Ferguson. Couldn't go wrong with any of them. Beyond that, they'll probably take Jason Avant.

It's probably almost better they pick a little lower so they don't eff it up.

Jake said...

I have to think that the Lions would take Matt Leinart if they had the #2 pick. Bush is a lock for #1 since SF and Houston probably don't want another QB. If Vince Young doesn't come out, the Lions won't be drafting a QB. I would like to see them get A.J. Hawk. The Lions haven't had a great linebacker in a long, long time.

ripi$money said...

I'll take a linebacker. We need a quarterback, but we need him now. No developing this time! As you can see, the last time we tried, it didn't work out too well... Kevin Jones is our running back, and I don't think even Reggie Bush would change that - the Lions are somewhat committed.

 

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