Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Top 18 (chances of going undefeated) Week Five

At one point on Saturday, it looked like both Georgia and Virginia Tech would suffer monumental upsets. In fact, I still don’t know how Georgia managed to pull out the win over Colorado. It had zero points for virtually the entire game. Virginia Tech put the game away with some authority late but Cincinnati certainly gave the Hokies a scare. The overall odds of producing undefeated teams have steadily risen over the last four weeks. When the season started, the odds were 65%. Now, the odds are nearly 110% and most likely rising. Don’t look for things to change this week because we’re in for another weak college football slate. Things will start to pick up on October 7 with Michigan/MSU, LSU/Florida, Tennessee/Georgia, and Oregon/California. Until then, we can hope for some big-time upsets.

I changed game odds for Michigan to reflect their actual value since it is considerably higher than what it appeared to be in the pre-season.

Wake Forest is undefeated but as I see it, it has less than a .01% chance of going undefeated. If Wake beats Clemson in two weeks, they will appear on the list. Since I’m only using two decimal places, Wake registers at a zero percent right now. So I won’t waste your time.

Big games this week that have National Championship implications:

Ohio State @ Iowa
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech
Auburn @ South Carolina

Top 18
(chances of going undefeated)

1 Ohio St.----------18.18%
2 W. Virginia-----16.88%
3 USC--------------15.88%
4 Louisville-------14.92%
5 TCU---------------9.45%
6 Boise St.----------8.31%
7 Michigan---------7.39%
8 Va. Tech---------4.07%
9 Georgia----------3.66%
10 Auburn---------3.45%
11 Iowa-------------2.98%
12 Florida----------1.32%
13 Houston--------0.78%
14 Oregon---------0.63%
15 Purdue----------0.57%
16 Rutgers---------0.23%
17 Texas A&M-----0.09%
18 Missouri--------0.02%

Teams that dropped from last week’s list (along with pre-season rank in terms of odds): #20 Alabama and #24 Arizona St.

Biggest Jump (percentage): Michigan + 4.79%, Ohio St. + 4.71%, Louisville +2.68%

Current overall chance of undefeated team(s) (100%=1 undefeated team, 200%=2 undefeated teams etc.): 109.35%

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