Friday, October 07, 2005

Coin Flip Challenge Week 4 picks

I’ve said all along that the more my picks differ from the coin flip, the better chance I’ll have at winning this ridiculous challenge. Last week marked the first time that there was a significant difference in opinion and it showed in the results. I took the coin flip to the cleaners and ran him through the wash-cycle over and over again. This week marks the second week in a row with major differences. Out of 14 games, I differ from the coin flip on six of them. I’d prefer to differ on every game but I’ll take six. I honestly don’t expect to duplicate my 9-5 record again for the rest of the year. It’s hard to do that well even if you know what you’re doing. However, I’d like to avoid the 5-9 and 5-10 weeks. This is a big week. I took momentum from the coin flip last week, and now it’s time to build on it.

GB -3 no

This is pretty much a “coin flip” game since both of these teams are not good. I suspect that if Green Bay ran their “2-minute” offense the entire game, they would probably win a few games. Favre is still good and he showed it against Carolina last Monday night. The odds are that Green Bay will win eventually and I can’t think of a better scenario for that to happen than playing at home against New Orleans. I’m going with Favre.

CLE -3 chi

I’m surprised that Cleveland is favored in this game. Chicago stinks. There’s no question about that but Cleveland stinks worse. Thomas Jones has run the ball very well and the Bears defense has been pretty good. This might be a trap but I’m going with the Bears on the road.

tb -3 NYJ

This is another game that I’m surprised about. It looks like the odds-makers think more highly of Vinny Testaverde than they do of Brooks Bollinger. I like Vinny but as far as winning games with this depleted Jets offense, I don’t think Testaverde or Bollinger has an advantage. I’m taking Tampa Bay to duplicate what Baltimore did to the Jets last week.

STL -3 sea

This game could go either way but I’m taking St. Louis for two reasons; 1). They’re at home and 2). They beat Seattle three times last year. In fact, I’ll even include a bonus reason; 3). Mike Martz will not be coaching.

ATL -3 ne

New England is certainly not as good as they have been in years past. The losses of Rodney Harrison and Teddy Bruschi are really showing up on the defensive side of the ball. The offense hasn’t been as efficient as usual either. However, I’ll go with New England anytime they’re three point underdogs.

BUFF -3 mia

The J.P. Losman show ended earlier than I even thought it would and I didn’t think it would last very long. Buffalo is headed for a very bad season. Miami has a solid running game, a strong defense, and a good coach. I think those three things add up to covering the spread in Buffalo.

DET -1.5 bal

Are the Lions really favored in this game? I mean, really? I’ll take Baltimore.

HOU -3 ten

This has the makings of a 35-31 type game. Neither team has a defense but one team has David Carr and the other team has Steve McNair. I’ll take Tennessee on the road to beat Houston.

indy -15 SF

I hate picking these big spread games with Indianapolis and Philadelphia because I’m never right. The way I see it, Peyton Manning hasn’t exploded yet this season. It’s about time the Colts put up forty points over some helpless secondary. San Francisco has just the secondary that I’m talking about. I’ll take Manning and Harrison to scorch SF.

car -2.5 ARI

Man, I’m really surprised with some of these spreads. I would think that Carolina would be a bigger favorite playing against Arizona. Who cares if it’s in Arizona? Anyhow, I have to take Carolina. They’re a very good football team and, quite frankly, the Cardinals are not.

phi -3 DAL

I don’t think most people realize how impressive Philadelphia’s win at Kansas City last week was. The Chiefs are nearly unbeatable at home. Plus, the Chiefs have a potent running game and an improved defense. Philly is as good as they’ve ever been. I think they’ll blow out Dallas.

DEN -7 was

Since Washington has a pretty good defense, I cringe at picking against them as seven point underdogs. However, the Skins have an anemic offense and it will be even more anemic playing on the road in Denver. I’ll take the Broncos to win by at least a touchdown. Of all the games this week, I’m most nervous about this one and Green Bay/New Orleans.

JAX -3 cincy

Jacksonville is a very good team. Any team that can continually play the Colts tight is a team to be afraid of. However, I don’t know if the Jags have the offense to keep up with Carson Palmer’s aerial show. I don’t expect the Bengals to be as good on the road against a good defense as they’ve been at home but it’s hard to pick against them as three point underdogs. I’ll take Cincy.

SD -3 pitts

This is a tough one. San Diego is starting to play like the 2004 Chargers. They have one of the toughest schedules in the league so their record might not show how good they are when it’s all said and done. I don’t know who’s going to win this game. It’s basically 50/50. Anytime I think a game is 50/50 and one team is a three point underdog, I’m taking them. I’ll go with Big Ben on the road.

My picks:


Coin Flip picks:


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