Monday, November 13, 2006

Odds of going undefeated week 12

Louisville’s shocking loss to Rutgers leaves the Scarlet Knights as the only BCS Championship game candidate left in the Big East. Even if Rutgers beats West Virginia, there is virtually no chance that Rutgers will play for the National Championship. Combine that with losses by Auburn, Texas, and California and the chances of a rematch of The Game are probably hovering around 50% right now. Florida, Arkansas, and USC are probably the only three teams that can prevent that from happening. If Arkansas beats LSU and Florida, it would have a legitimate shot at passing the loser of The Game. If USC beats California and Notre Dame, it too would have a legitimate shot at passing the loser of The Game. Florida has the easiest road of the three with games against Florida State and Arkansas. Even if one of those teams wins out, there is no guarantee that it will jump the loser of The Game.

The quality of work (computer rankings, impressive wins etc.) by Ohio State and Michigan is so much better than the rest of the country that it would be hard to rationalize putting a one-loss team with a loss to Oregon State (USC) or a 36 point defeat (Arkansas) in the BCS Championship game. It could happen but pollsters will have the final say since they make up 66% of the equation. If they drop the loser of The Game below USC, Arkansas, or Florida, then a rematch is less likely but still very possible. Even if the loser of The Game does fall behind those teams, there is a good chance that all three will lose again. Don’t be surprised if the loser of The Game, assuming that it is not a blowout, shows up at number two.

Top 4
(Odds of going undefeated)

1 Boise State-----75.00%
2 Ohio State-----60.00%
3 Michigan-------40.00%
4 Rutgers---------27.78%

Teams that dropped from last week’s list (along with pre-season rank in terms of odds): #7 Louisville

Biggest Jump (percentage): Rutgers +16.67 %

Current overall chance of undefeated team(s) (100%=1 undefeated team, 200%=2 undefeated teams etc.): 202.78%

Odds that current one-loss teams will win out:

1 Louisville--------57.42%
2 Wisconsin------49.50%
3 Notre Dame----47.03%
4 W. Virginia-----39.38%
5 Florida----------33.00%
6 USC-------------20.83%
7 Arkansas--------18.75%
8 Wake Forest----12.50%

Three Most Likely BCS Championship Match-ups:

1) Michigan vs. Ohio State

2) Michigan/Ohio State winner vs. Arkansas/Florida winner (in SEC Championship game)

3) Michigan/Ohio State winner vs. USC

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