Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Top 25 (chances of going undefeated) Week Four

Last week was a great week for fans of teams that are still undefeated. No less than fifteen teams dropped out of the list of undefeateds including some big-time programs. Unfortunately, Texas Tech and Miami (FL) let down the entire college football world by missing out on the best opportunity to hand TCU and Louisville a loss this season. Now, it’s looking more and more like the winner of the Louisville/West Virginia game will finish the season undefeated unless Pittsburgh or Rutgers has a miracle up its sleeve. That obviously eliminates one of the two spots in the National Championship game unless the voters punish Louisville and West Virginia in the polls for a weak schedule. I can’t see this happening since Louisville will have beaten Miami (FL), West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Kansas St.

Michigan did everyone a favor by beating Notre Dame. The Irish looked to be one victory over USC away from a possible undefeated regular season. The bad news for college football fans is that the overall odds for an undefeated team increased as a result of the action from last Saturday. TCU, Boise State, Louisville/West Virginia and Ohio State have increasingly good chances of going undefeated. Michigan is the only current undefeated team that benefits from playing one of those teams. As a result, Michigan’s National Championship aspirations are in its own hands whereas other undefeated teams have to hope that teams lose.

I’ve only listed the top 24 teams this week because the 25th team has less than a .01% chance of going undefeated. If Oklahoma State, Houston, and/or Kansas State win this weekend, they may appear on next week’s list assuming their chances are above .01%

Note: USC's odds were changed as a result of a significant difference in how I viewed USC coming into the season (and most other people as well) and how good USC actually is. Throughout the year, if the situation merits it, I will change individual game odds. In this particular instance, four of USC's game odds needed to be changed to reflect how good USC is this season.

Top 25
(chances of going undefeated)

1 USC-----------------15.48%
2 West Virginia-----13.70%
3 Ohio State---------13.47%
4 Louisville----------12.24%
5 TCU-----------------9.45%
6 Boise State---------6.65%
7 Iowa-----------------3.91%
8 Va. Tech------------3.66%
9 Auburn--------------3.41%
10 Georgia------------2.92%
11 Michigan-----------2.60%
12 Florida-------------1.26%
13 Alabama-----------0.74%
14 Arizona State-----0.69%
15 Oregon-------------0.63%
16 Purdue-------------0.43%
17 Rutgers------------0.23%
18 Wisconsin---------0.22%
19 BC------------------0.13%
20 S. Florida---------0.12%
21 Texas A&M--------0.08%
22 Michigan St.------0.08%
23 UCLA---------------0.01%
24 Missouri-----------0.01%

Teams that dropped from last week’s list (along with pre-season rank in terms of odds): #4 Notre Dame, #6 Oklahoma, #8 Florida State, #15 LSU, #22 Tennessee, #28 Nebraska, #29 Texas Tech, #33 Pittsburgh

Biggest Jump (percentage): Louisville (+8.20%), TCU (+7.09%), West Virginia (+ 3.42%),

Current overall chance of undefeated team(s) (100%=1 undefeated team, 200%=2 undefeated teams etc.): 92.12%

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