Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Top 25 (chances of going undefeated) Week Three

The rash of big games early in the non-conference schedule helps diminish the list of undefeated teams by the end of September. If your team is still on this list, then the Texas/Ohio State, Florida State/Miami (FL), California/Tennessee, Notre Dame/Penn State and Oregon/Fresno State games helped you out in some way. But, if you thought the first two weeks featured big-time match-ups, wait until you see this lineup:

Michigan @ Notre Dame
Clemson @ Florida State
Miami (FL) @ Louisville
LSU @ Auburn
Florida @ Tennessee
Texas Tech @ TCU
Oklahoma @ Oregon

There might not even be 25 undefeated teams next week if all goes right. Any major conference team that goes undefeated this season will not have a problem making the BCS Championship game. In a sense, every team controls its own destiny. Win every game and you’re in. This probably holds true for West Virginia and Louisville as well. If Fresno State doesn't beat Boise State later this season, then Boise State may end up being the only undefeated team at the end of the year. That would cause havoc.

Top 25 (chances of going undefeated)

1 Ohio State-------12.79%
2 W. Virginia-----10.28%
3 Notre Dame------9.38%
4 USC----------------8.14%
5 Florida State-----5.79%
6 Boise State-------4.99%
7 Oklahoma--------4.51%
8 Louisville---------4.08%
9 Va. Tech----------3.30%
10 Iowa-------------2.93%
11 Georgia----------2.89%
12 TCU--------------2.36%
13 LSU---------------1.79%
14 Auburn-----------1.71%
15 Tennessee-------0.88%
16 Michigan--------0.87%
17 Alabama---------0.70%
18 Florida-----------0.63%
19 Arizona State---0.41%
20 Purdue----------0.40%
21 Oregon----------0.25%
22 Nebraska-------0.21%
23 Rutgers---------0.21%
24 Texas Tech-----0.19%
25 (tie) Pittsburgh-0.18%
25 (tie) Wisconsin--0.18%

Teams that dropped from last week’s list (along with pre-season rank in terms of odds): #5 Texas, #17 Penn State, #23 Fresno State, and #27 Clemson

Biggest Jump (position and percentage): Oregon +8 (+.1%), Boise State +5 (+2.50%), Ohio State +2 (+6.39%), and Notre Dame No Change (+3.13%)

Current overall chance of undefeated team(s) (100%=1 undefeated team, 200%=2 undefeated teams etc.): 80.35%

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