Final Tournament Projections

Here is my final projection for the NCAA Tournament. It seems pretty cut and dry to me but you never know what the Selection Committee is thinking.


1 ACC Duke
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Syracuse
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Iowa
6 Pac-10 Washington
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC San Diego St.
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial NC Wilmington
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Wisconsin-Mil.
17 MAAC Iona
18 Big Sky Montana
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Pacific
21 OVC Murray St.
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Bucknell
25 Southland Northwestern St.
26 Northeast Monmouth
27 AEC Albany
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Hampton

32 At-Large George Mason
33 At-Large George Washington
34 At-Large Villanova
35 At-Large Pittsburgh
36 At-Large W. Virginia
37 At-Large Cincinnati
38 At-Large Marquette
39 At-Large Georgetown
40 At-Large NC State
41 At-Large Boston College
42 At-Large N. Carolina
43 At-Large Indiana
44 At-Large UAB
45 At-Large MSU
46 At-Large NC Wilmington
47 At-Large Connecticut
48 At-Large Ohio St.
49 At-Large Wisconsin
50 At-Large Ohio St.
51 At-Large Kentucky
52 At-Large Tennessee
53 At-Large LSU
54 At-Large Alabama
55 At-Large Oklahoma
56 At-Large Texas
57 At-Large Texas A&M
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Arizona
60 At-Large UCLA
61 At-Large Bradley
62 At-Large Missouri St.
63 At-Large Wichita St.
64 At-Large California
65 At-Large N. Iowa

Last Five In:

Bradley

The Braves proved at the end of the season that they are one of the top two teams in the MVC. If the MVC gets multiple bids, Bradley has to be in the tourney.

George Mason

George Mason's RPI is too high to be left out of the tournament. George Mason won a share of the regular season CAA title. With an RPI of 26, this team should be in over a bevy of teams with RPI's nearly 20 spots worse.

Hofstra

Hofstra seams to be the odd team out on most projections simply because most people think the committee will not take three teams from the CAA. With an RPI of 30 and three victories over NC Wilmington and George Mason, this team should definitely be in.

Alabama

Alabama's record isn't all that impressive but the Tide finished 10-6 with victories over Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU. While 'Bama has a weak RPI, few teams have as many quality wins.

California

I don't think Cal should be in the tournament. Take a minute to check out its resume and you will find nothing even remotely close to impressive. Cal might just be the most fortunate college basketball team in the last decade. The Pac-10 was so bad this year that it had a worse RPI than the MVC.

Last Seven Out:

Creighton

The MVC won't get six bids. This is the odd team out.

Seton Hall

WAY too many losses to teams outside of the RPI top 90. It would be a travesty if a team with that many losses to BAD basketball teams makes the tournament.

Michigan

2-7 stretch to end the season with only three victories in the RPI top 50 is a weak resume. Throw in a plummeting RPI of 46 and this team should not make the tournament. Injuries aside, a tournament-worthy team would've at least had a pulse at the end of the season.

Air Force

Not a good year to be a pretty good at-large team.

Maryland

Too many losses and too few quality wins.

Florida St.

Same as Maryland only worse.

Colorado

If Colorado was in the Pac-10, it would be California and likely be headed to the tournament.

Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (4)
Duke
NC State
Boston College
N. Carolina


SEC (6)
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
Alabama

Big East (8)
UCONN
Syracuse
Villanova
Pittsburgh
W. Virginia
Cincinnati
Marquette
Georgetown

Big 12 (4)
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Texas A&M


Big Ten (6)
Illinois
MSU
Indiana
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Iowa

Pac-10 (4)
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
California


C-USA (2)
Memphis
UAB

A-10 (2)
GW
Xavier

MVC (5)
N. Iowa
Wichita St.
S. Illinois
Missouri St.
Bradley

(3)
George Mason
NC Wilmington
Hofstra

NCAA Tournament Projections/MVC Breakdown

Rarely have seen so many teams come out of nowhere in the last week of the regular season to lay claim to an at-large bid. Florida St., UAB, Texas A&M, and Seton Hall are just some of the teams that have complicated things for the Selection Committee. Whether one big victory will prove to be enough to send these teams into the tournament remains to be seen. Florida St.’s victory over Duke gives the Seminoles one victory over a team that will make the tournament. That hardly seems like enough to receive an at-large bid. On the other side, UAB’s victory over Memphis and Texas A&M’s shocking win over Texas puts those teams right on the fringe of the 65-team field. Seton Hall’s improbable wins over Cincinnati and Pittsburgh probably seals the deal for an eighth team out of the Big East. As of last week, the selection process was looking extremely easy for the committee. As of today, I can’t say I envy their position. I will attempt to give the committee a thorough comparison of the at-large candidates from the MVC as well as the entire 65-team field. This will be my best attempt at differentiating the six teams vying for a bid from that conference. I think all six teams deserve a bid but I’ll do my best to rank the six teams in terms of bid worthiness.


Won Automatic bid from their conference:

OVC Murray St.
Big South Winthrop
Ivy Pennsylvania
Atl. Sun Belmont
MVC S. Illinois
Southern Davidson


Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):

1 ACC Duke
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East UCONN
4 Big 12 Texas
5 Big Ten Illinois
6 Pac-10 Washington
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 George Washington
11 Colonial Hofstra
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt W. Kentucky
16 Horizon Wisconsin-Mil.
17 MAAC Iona
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC IUPUI
20 Big West Pacific
21 OVC Murray St.
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Bucknell
25 Southland Northwestern St.
26 Northeast Farleigh Dickinson
27 AEC Albany
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large George Mason
33 At-Large Seton Hall
34 At-Large Villanova
35 At-Large Pittsburgh
36 At-Large W. Virginia
37 At-Large Cincinnati
38 At-Large Marquette
39 At-Large Georgetown
40 At-Large NC State
41 At-Large Boston College
42 At-Large N. Carolina
43 At-Large Indiana
44 At-Large UAB
45 At-Large MSU
46 At-Large NC Wilmington
47 At-Large Michigan
48 At-Large Ohio St.
49 At-Large Wisconsin
50 At-Large Iowa
51 At-Large Kentucky
52 At-Large Tennessee
53 At-Large LSU
54 At-Large Alabama
55 At-Large Oklahoma
56 At-Large Kansas
57 At-Large Texas A&M
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Arizona
60 At-Large UCLA
61 At-Large Bradley
62 At-Large Missouri St.
63 At-Large Wichita St.
64 At-Large Creighton
65 At-Large N. Iowa

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. I’m starting to think that GW will be upset in the A-10 tournament without Pops Mensu-Boshu which would pop somebody’s bubble. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.


The last seven teams in the tourney right now:

As the RPI stands right now, Arkansas seems to be the clear cutoff point for teams making the tournament. What I mean by that is that I don’t see any team with a worse RPI than Arkansas making the tournament as an at-large selection. Of teams rated higher than Arkansas in the RPI, I only see St. Joseph’s and Syracuse missing the tournament. That appears to be a fair cutoff point.


1. Creighton

Two weeks ago, Creighton was a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament. However, the Blue Jays haven’t beaten a team in the RPI top 125 since January. With so many “bubble” teams picking up monumental wins last week, Creighton’s lack of quality wins over the last two months couldn’t have come at a worse time. A first round loss in the MVC Tournament didn’t help its cause either. I really think that the MVC should get all six teams into the tournament. If Missouri St. is good enough to make the tournament, then Wichita St. is good enough since WSU went 2-0 against MSU this year. If Wichita St. is good enough to make the tournament, then Northern Iowa is good enough since N. Iowa went 2-0 against WSU. If N. Iowa is good enough to make the tournament then S. Illinois is good enough to make the tournament since S. Illinois went 2-0 against N. Iowa. Likewise, if N. Iowa is good enough to make the tournament then Creighton is good enough to make the tournament since Creighton was 2-0 against N. Iowa. If Creighton is good enough to make the tournament, then Bradley is good enough to make the tournament since Bradley went 2-1 against Creighton. Each of the top six teams in this conference has the same argument for making the tournament. I know there are only a limited number of spots, but I would like to see the selection committee reward the MVC for having such an impressive RPI while holding teams like California, Colorado, and Syracuse accountable for having low RPI’s or weak resumes. I’ll have much more on this at the bottom of the page.

RPI rating: 42
Pomeroy rating: 55

Quality wins: @ George Mason, Xavier, @ N. Iowa, Bradley, Wichita St., N. Iowa,

Bad losses: @ Chatanooga, @ Illinois St,



2. Bradley

Bradley was an afterthought just a month ago. However, an amazing 11-3 stretch that featured victories over five teams in the RPI top 45 has Bradley in the mix for an at-large bid. No team in the MVC has been hotter over the second half of the season. Bradley has eight wins over the RPI top 55 which is a phenomenal total for a mid-major. This team, like the other five MVC teams, deserves to be in the tournament. Bradley is one of only two teams (S. Illinois is the other) two have beaten all five of the other top teams in the MVC.

RPI rating: 34
Pomeroy rating: 32

Quality wins: W. Kentucky, N. Iowa, @ N. Iowa, Creighton (2), Missouri St., S. Illinois and Wichita St.

Bad losses: @ Loyola Chicago, @ Indiana St. and @ Drake

3. NC Wilmington


The Seahawks were sitting pretty last week with an RPI in the top 35. With so many “bubble” teams picking up big victories, NC Wilmington dropped in the RPI despite its current six-game winning streak. I had been saying for the past few weeks that if NC Wilmington is a tournament team, then Hofstra should be a tournament team as well. That was when NC Wilmington was getting more publicity than Hofstra. Now, I fear that the roles will be reversed and NC Wilmington will be the odd team out. Frankly, the CAA deserves three teams in the tournament. Hofstra, NC Wilmington, and George Mason should be tourney bound. If NC Wilmington doesn’t make the tournament, it really only has itself to blame with terrible losses to College of Charleston and E. Carolina.

RPI rating: 37
Pomeroy rating: 41

Quality wins: George Mason, Hofstra
Bad losses: College of Charleston, @ E. Carolina


4. George Mason


I think Hofstra is in the tournament regardless of what happens in the CAA Championship between Hofstra and NC Wilmington. George Mason should be in as well with an RPI of 29. Although, there are more deserving resumes on the bubble list than what George Mason has to offer. While I think it has a legitimate gripe for a bid if it were left out of the tournament, there really isn’t much to speak of in terms of quality wins.

RPI rating: 29
Pomeroy rating: 30

Quality wins: @ Wichita St., NC Wilmington
Bad losses: @ Mississippi St.


5. Texas A&M

As much as I hate to admit it, the Aggies really do deserve to make the tournament as things stand now. This team came out of nowhere to earn a 20-7 record (10-6 in the Big XII) with victories over Texas and Colorado. In fact, the Aggies beat Colorado head to head and finished ahead of the Buffaloes in the Big XII standings. If that doesn’t get Texas A&M in ahead of Colorado, then something is wrong. The Aggies don’t have the most impressive RPI but this team finished the season on a seven-game winning streak including the big win over Texas. I see Texas A&M as the fourth and final team from the Big XII barring major upsets in the conference tournaments.

RPI rating: 49
Pomeroy rating: 42

Quality wins: @ Colorado, Northwestern St, Texas, @ Iowa St

Bad losses: @ Kansas St., @ Pacific

6. Missouri St.

The Bears were on a major roll until an opening round loss in the MVC. In fairness, the loss was against a game N. Iowa team who needed the victory slightly more than Missouri St. needed it. However, that shouldn’t discount Missouri St.’s amazing second half run. The Bears finished the regular season on an 8-1 run with victories over four teams in the RPI top 60. Their RPI is in the mid-20’s which is almost certainly good enough for an at-large bid. The Bears’ fate for the tournament lies completely in the Selection Committee’s view towards the MVC. If the committee gives the MVC the respect it deserves, then this team will be in the tournament. Another positive for MSU is that it has no losses to teams outside of the RPI top 50. Not many teams can say that.

RPI rating: 21
Pomeroy rating: 31

Quality wins: S. Illinois, Bradley, @ N. Iowa, @ Wisconsin Milwaukee, Creighton
Bad losses: none

7. UAB

UAB was destined for the NIT without a marquee win. With the Conference USA being incredibly week, the Blazers only had two chances at getting that marquee win. Luckily for the Blazers, they took advantage of their second chance against Memphis which likely sealed a bid. It’s hard to imagine this team being 21-5 overall (12-2 in conference) with a victory over a top ten team with no losses to teams outside of the RPI top 100 not making the tournament. Stranger things have happened but UAB should be in.

RPI rating: 44
Pomeroy rating: 43

Quality wins: Memphis, Old Dominion, Houston
Bad losses: @ DePaul

8. Seton Hall

I must admit that I wrote Seton Hall off just seven days ago. This team lost to St. John’s and DePaul in must-win games last week. That left the Pirates 16-10 overall (7-7 conference) with two certain losses to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati looming. Two victories later, the Pirates are sitting pretty at 9-7 in the Big East with five victories over the RPI top 35. This team has possibly the worst negatives of any “bubble team”. The Pirates lost to Richmond, Northwestern, Rutgers, DePaul, St. John’s, and Notre Dame. The Hall also lost by 53 to Duke and 42 to Connecticut. If I were on the committee, I would lobby hard to keep this team out of the tournament. An at-large bid should be given to a team with a deserving resume. In my opinion, no team with six losses outside of the RPI top 85 deserves the tournament. If that isn’t enough, no team that lost two games by at least 40 points deserves an at-large bid.

RPI rating: 48
Pomeroy rating: 45

Quality wins: @ NC State, @ Syracuse, W. Virginia, Cincinnati, @ Pittsburgh
Bad losses: Too many to name.

9. Michigan

Luckily for Michigan, Daniel Horton single-handily beat Illinois to get Michigan to 8-8 in the conference. If it weren’t for that upset win, Michigan would most certainly be headed to the NIT. Even with the victory, Michigan hardly deserves to make the NCAA Tournament. Michigan went 3-7 against the other six powerhouse teams in the Big Ten which is by far the worst of the group. Michigan has gone 2-6 over its last eight and hasn’t beaten a team in the RPI top 80 since January. I hate to say it, but no team that finishes the season on a 2-6 run with so few quality wins deserves to make the tournament. In every category that the Selection Committee looks at to determine a team’s worthiness for an at-large bid, Michigan is deficient. Michigan didn’t beat anyone on the road. Michigan finished the season terribly. Michigan had no marquee non-conference wins. Michigan didn’t finish above .500 in conference. How exactly does this team deserve to make the tournament? The only thing Michigan has going for it is the injury card. With Lester Abram out for 13 games and the recent injury to Chris Hunter, Michigan certainly wasn’t playing at full strength. Even without those players, a tournament-worthy basketball team should not turn the ball over 24 times (!!!!!!) in a must-win home finale and blow a 10-point lead to boot. However, if Michigan makes it, it will be solely on the strength of the Big Ten’s RPI.

RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 39

Quality wins: Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan St.
Bad losses: @ Purdue



The teams waiting in the wings:

I predicted two weeks ago that either Syracuse or Cincinnati would not make the NCAA Tournament. As unlikely as it seemed then, it now appears that Syracuse will probably be NIT bound. The Orange have virtually no marquee wins this season and finished below .500 (7-9) in the Big East. Many of the following teams have appeared in my “projected” field for quite some time before this week. I didn’t take them out of my projections because of their play rather because of the play of other teams. I really have no idea which direction the committee is going to go in terms of mid-majors vs. power conference teams. If the committee shows favoritism to the power conferences, many teams below could sneak into the tournament with weak resumes.

1. California

If Stanford can be kept out of the tournament with an 11-7 conference record due to an undeserving resume, then California can too. I’ve long considered the Bears as a likely tournament team just because of their conference record. However, the Bears have an awful RPI. They have zero good wins out of the conference. They did beat UCLA, Arizona, and Washington but lost to all three as well. In some years, Cal’s resume would be good enough to make the tournament. This year, it shouldn’t be. Three losses to teams with an RPI of 165 or worse including Eastern Michigan proves Cal’s unworthiness to be a tournament team. The committee may feel compelled to give a team a break from a power conference but 11-7 doesn’t mean anything in the Pac-10.

RPI rating: 59
Pomeroy rating: 48

Quality wins: @ Arizona, @ Washington, UCLA
Bad losses: @ Eastern Michigan, Oregon St, Arizona St.

2. Colorado

Colorado has a bland resume that would be perfect for the NIT. The Buffaloes have even less quality wins than California. They have exactly two wins over the RPI top 80. They have four losses to teams with an RPI of 85 or worse. I’m trying to think of reasons that this team should make the tournament and I’m coming up with none.

RPI rating: 52
Pomeroy rating: 52

Quality wins: NC Wilmington, Oklahoma

Bad losses: @ Colorado St, @ Iowa St, @ Kansas St, @ Nebraska

3. Florida St.

As amazing as it might seem, Florida St. actually has less quality wins than California and Colorado. Florida St. pulled off a shocking upset over Duke last week but that will be FSU’s only victory over a team headed to the NCAA Tournament this year. FSU only has one victory on the season over a team with RPI of 50 or higher. This team nearly beat Duke a second time but unfortunately for the Seminoles, that was probably the only way FSU was going to make the tournament.

RPI rating: 56
Pomeroy rating: 27

Quality wins: Duke

Bad losses: @ Clemson, Miami (FL), @ Va. Tech


4. Syracuse

Syracuse had two things working against it this season, 1). It played in an incredibly deep conference and 2). It wasn’t very good. Syracuse’s impending absence from the tournament could be seen weeks ago as its stretch schedule looked too difficult for an average team to survive. The Orange failed to reach .500 in the Big East and only managed to beat two teams in the RPI top 55. Considering the Orange played 11 games against teams in the RPI, the two victories prove that this team doesn’t belong.

RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 63

Quality wins: W. Virginia, Cincinnati, Kent St., UTEP

Bad losses: @ DePaul



Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (4)
Duke
NC State
Boston College
N. Carolina


SEC (6)
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
Alabama

Big East (8)
UCONN
Seton Hall
Villanova
Pittsburgh
W. Virginia
Cincinnati
Marquette
Georgetown

Big 12 (4)
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Texas A&M


Big Ten (7)
Illinois
MSU
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Iowa

Pac-10 (4)
Washington
Arizona
UCLA



C-USA (2)
Memphis
UAB

A-10 (1)
GW


MVC (6)
N. Iowa
Creighton
Wichita St.
S. Illinois
Missouri St.
Bradley

(3)
George Mason
NC Wilmington
Hofstra



Sorting out the MVC

The Missouri Valley Conference is two things if not a mystery; 1). The #6 conference in the RPI and 2). Top heavy. There are six teams from the MVC that deserve bids to the NCAA Tournament. However, it is unlikely the selection committee will reward the MVC with six bids due to “unwritten” quotas for mid-majors allowed in the tournament. The committee claims to take the best 35 at-large teams regardless of conference affiliation but I have to think that a team from a power conference will get the benefit of the doubt when weighed against the 5th or 6th representative from the MVC. It just doesn’t “seem” right that the MVC deserves six bids. As a result, my goal is to a). show that if one team in the MVC deserves a bid, then they all do and b). rank the teams in order from 1-6 no matter how hard that may be. I will rank the teams 1-6 in 10 different categories. A corresponding point value will be given to each slot within each category. The team ranked first in each category will receive six points. The team ranked second will receive five points and so on. At the end, I will add up the total points and rank the MVC teams. I understand that some people may value certain categories more than others but all 10 categories are taken into consideration by the committee with non being considerably more important than any other.

1st=6 points
2nd=5 points
3rd=4 points
4th=3 points
5th=2 points
6th=1 point


Record vs. the top five teams in the MVC:

Wichita St.’s record vs. N. Iowa, Creighton, Missouri St., Bradley and S. Illinois: 6-5

N. Iowa’s record vs. Wichita St., Creighton, Missouri St., Bradley and S. Illinois: 5-7

Creighton’s record vs. Wichita St., N. Iowa, Missouri St., Bradley and S. Illinois: 5-6

Missouri St’s record vs. Wichita St., N. Iowa, Creighton, Bradley and S. Illinois: 4-7

Bradley’s record vs. Wichita St., N. Iowa, Creighton, Missouri St. and S. Illinois: 7-6

S. Illinois’s record vs. Wichita St., N. Iowa, Creighton, Missouri St. and Bradley: 8-4

RPI:

Wichita St.: 3rd Place

N. Iowa: 2nd Place

Creighton: 6th Place

Missouri St.: 1st Place

Bradley: 5th Place

S. Illinois: 4th Place

SOS:

Wichita St.: 4th Place

N. Iowa: 1st Place

Creighton: 6th Place

Missouri St.: 2nd Place

Bradley: 3rd Place

S. Illinois: 5th Place

Record in last 12 games:

Bradley: 9-3

Missouri St.: 8-4

Wichita St.: 8-4

Creighton: 7-5

S. Illinois: 7-5

N. Iowa: 6-6

Best two non-conference wins:

N. Iowa: @ LSU, Iowa

Creighton: @ George Mason, Xavier

Bradley: W. Kentucky, @ DePaul

Wichita St.: @ Northwestern St., Miami (OH)

Missouri St.: @ Wisconsin Milwaukee, N. Illinois

S. Illinois: Kent St., @ Murray St.


# of losses outside of the RPI top 100

Wichita St.: 0

N. Iowa: 1

Creighton: 2

Missouri St.: 0

Bradley: 3

S. Illinois: 4

# of wins inside the RPI top 80

Wichita St.: 7

N. Iowa: 8

Creighton: 6

Missouri St.: 5

Bradley: 8

S. Illinois: 10

Conference Record

Wichita St.: 14-4

N. Iowa: 11-7

Creighton: 12-6

Missouri St.: 12-6

Bradley: 11-7

S. Illinois: 12-6

MVC Tournament finish

Wichita St.: 3/4

N. Iowa: 3/4

Creighton: 7/8

Missouri St.: 7/8

Bradley: 2

S. Illinois: 1

Road/Neutral record:

Wichita St.: 10-6

N. Iowa: 10-6

Creighton: 5-8

Missouri St.: 8-6

Bradley: 7-9

S. Illinois: 11-7




Here is how the teams compare after calculating the point total for each category:


Wichita St. 43
N. Iowa 39
S. Illinois 35.5
Bradley 35
Missouri St. 33.5
Creighton 24



Clearly from this comparison, Creighton is noticeably behind the other MVC teams. With S. Illinois receiving the MVC’s automatic bid, the Selection Committee could easily omit Creighton from this group and take the rest. Wichita St. is clearly the cream of the conference in terms of resume viability. The next four are fairly indistinguishable. Before I compared the teams in the MVC in this manner, I felt that all six teams deserved consideration as there wasn’t much separating them from each other. While there might not be an obvious black mark on Creighton’s resume from the naked eye, it appears that all of the little things add up to a team that is probably less deserving than its league counterparts. Creighton has impressive wins over George Mason, N. Iowa (2), Wichita St., and Bradley. But, when all of the factors that the Selection Committee takes into place are considered, the Blue Jays might be on the outside looking in.

NCAA Tournament projections (week of 3-1)

With two weeks left until Selection Sunday, there are only a handful of teams that are in limbo in terms of their tournament status. The Missouri Valley Conference continues to be the feel-good story of the mid-major world this season. If the season ended today and all of the best teams win their conference tournaments, the MVC would get six teams in the Big Dance. That would be more than the Pac 10, the Big XII and the ACC. There aren’t a whole lot of bubble teams with convincing resumes. In fact, it wasn’t difficult at all for me to leave out any team of my current projected field. However, if Air Force, Gonzaga, Nevada, George Washington, Memphis, and Bucknell don’t win their conference tournaments, projecting the field will become extremely difficult. For instance, how does one differentiate between NC Wilmington and Hofstra or S. Illinois and Bradley? The amount of upsets in the conference tournaments will determine the difficulty in selecting the field. The field I have right now assumes all favorites win their conference tournaments.

Here are the changes I made to the projected automatic bid winners:

MWC Air Force replaces San Diego St.


Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):

1 ACC Duke
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East UCONN
4 Big 12 Texas
5 Big Ten Illinois
6 Pac-10 Washington
7 MVC N. Iowa
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 George Washington
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt W. Kentucky
16 Horizon Wisconsin-Mil.
17 MAAC Iona
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC IUPUI
20 Big West Pacific
21 OVC Murray St.
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Bucknell
25 Southland Northwestern St.
26 Northeast Farleigh Dickinson
27 AEC Albany
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Hofstra
33 At-Large Syracuse
34 At-Large Villanova
35 At-Large Pittsburgh
36 At-Large W. Virginia
37 At-Large Cincinnati
38 At-Large Marquette
39 At-Large Georgetown
40 At-Large NC State
41 At-Large Boston College
42 At-Large N. Carolina
43 At-Large Indiana
44 At-Large California
45 At-Large MSU
46 At-Large NC Wilmington
47 At-Large Michigan
48 At-Large Ohio St.
49 At-Large Wisconsin
50 At-Large Iowa
51 At-Large Kentucky
52 At-Large Tennessee
53 At-Large LSU
54 At-Large Alabama
55 At-Large Oklahoma
56 At-Large Kansas
57 At-Large Colorado
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Arizona
60 At-Large UCLA
61 At-Large Bradley
62 At-Large Missouri St.
63 At-Large Wichita St.
64 At-Large Creighton
65 At-Large S. Illinois

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.

The last seven teams in the tourney right now:

1. Bradley

Of the six candidates from the Missouri Valley Conference that are looking for a bid to the NCAA Tournament, Bradley will probably be listed last in the pecking order. I think this is a mistake, though. Bradley is 9-2 in its last 11 games including wins @ N. Iowa, S. Illinois, and Missouri St. Bradley deserves a bid to the tourney regardless of how many MVC teams get in. S. Illinois will probably get in ahead of Bradley but this would be a mistake.


RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 34

Quality wins: W. Kentucky, N. Iowa, @ N. Iowa, Creighton, Missouri St., and S. Illinois,

Bad losses: @ Loyola Chicago, @ Indiana St. and @ Drake

2. S. Illinois

If S. Illinois gets in ahead of Bradley, it can thank two things; 1). Its slight advantage in RPI and 2). It’s slight advantage in conference record. The Salukis are two spots ahead in the RPI and are one game better in terms of conference record. The way I see it, these teams are tied. They have essentially the same computer ratings and conference records. They each have beaten more than a handful of teams from the RPI top 50. They each have three bad losses. The only thing that sets these two teams apart is recent performance. S. Illinois is 7-6 in its last 13 games. Bradley is 9-2 in its last 11 including a win over S. Illinois. Bradley also has a huge advantage in the Pomeroy ratings. S. Illinois lost to Division 2 Alaska Anchorage which isn’t factored into the computer ratings. That would seriously damage its RPI. If one of these teams bows out early in the MVC Tournament, that might differentiate them more for the committee. With conference tournament upsets surely to come, one of these teams will likely miss out on the tourney.

RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 69

Quality wins: Wichita St, Bradley, Creighton, @ Creighton, Missouri St, and N. Iowa

Bad losses: Monmouth (neutral), @Alaska Anchorage, Indiana St, and @ Evansville


3. Indiana

I had Indiana out of the tournament last week and that could still happen. The Hoosiers have to finish 8-8 in the Big Ten to have a better than 50/50 shot at getting a bid. The win over Michigan St. yesterday was a big surprise and gave Indiana a big-time boost. Indiana has quality wins on the year but it is 3-7 over its last ten games. The Hoosiers have two Big Ten games remaining. It will have to win at least one to stay in contention for a bid.

RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 53

Quality wins: Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio St., Illinois, and Michigan St.

Bad losses: @ Indiana St. and @ Penn St.


4. Hofstra


As I mentioned right here last week, if NC Wilmington is a tournament team, then Hofstra should be as well. Hofstra finally played George Mason and came out victorious. Now, nothing separates Hofstra from NC Wilmington. Both teams beat George Mason. Both teams won a game against the other. Hofstra has a better record. Hofstra has more wins in the RPI top 55. Hofstra has beaten Old Dominion twice while NC Wilmington lost its only meeting with Old Dominion. Barring a major upset along the way, the CAA should be able to secure three bids to the tournament which would be a huge surprise. What makes it even more surprising is that one of those teams won’t be Old Dominion.

RPI rating: 38
Pomeroy rating: 59

Quality wins: NC Wilmington, George Mason, Old Dominion, @ Old Dominion
Bad losses: @ Towson

5. Cincinnati

As long as Cincy wins one of its two remaining Big East games, it will easily make the tournament. The Bearcats play a struggling Seton Hall team and W. Virginia. If Cincy loses both games, it would stand at 17-12 entering the Big East Tournament. Cincy won’t win the Big East Tournament so they would definitely pick up another loss. That would leave Cincy at 18-13 with few big wins on the season. It has a nice RPI right now but three straight losses would likely push Cincy out of the RPI top 35 and right on out of the tournament. Don’t be surprised if that happens.

RPI rating: 26
Pomeroy rating: 41

Quality wins: @ Vanderbilt, LSU (neutral), @ Marquette, @ Syracuse

Bad losses: Dayton

6. Syracuse

Syracuse is in the exact same boat as Cincinnati. If the Orange does not win at least one of its two remaining games in the Big East, things could go south quickly. Syracuse plays @ DePaul and Villanova. Losses to both teams and a loss in the Big East Tournament would leave Syracuse at 20-12 with even fewer good wins than Cincinnati. Its RPI would likely be outside of the top 35.

RPI rating: 28
Pomeroy rating: 43

Quality wins: Cincinnati, and W. Virginia

Bad losses: none

8. Michigan

Michigan is in the tournament. The Wolverines were on the fast-track out of the field but a stunning victory over Illinois put Michigan right back in position. Had Michigan not beaten Illinois, Michigan would’ve needed a victory over Indiana to secure a bid. Judging from Michigan’s struggles against Indiana recently it would’ve been a tall order. Had Michigan not beaten Illinois and ended the season on a three-game losing streak, there is no way Michigan would’ve made the tournament. Michigan would’ve been 1-7 in its last eight games. It would’ve been 7-9 in conference play. Even worse, Michigan would have had only TWO wins in the RPI top 68! Out of the RPI top 55, only Wisconsin Milwaukee would’ve had less wins against the RPI top 68. I don’t know if there has been a team in the history of college basketball to go 1-7 in its last eight regular season games and go 7-9 (or worse) in its conference and still make the tournament as an at-large. Thankfully, Michigan beat Illinois and secured at least an 8-8 conference record. After waiting eight long years, Michigan is in!

RPI rating: 25
Pomeroy rating: 38

Quality wins: Michigan St, Illinois, Wisconsin

Bad losses: @ Purdue



The teams waiting in the wings:

For the first time this year, there aren’t any teams that I’ve left out of my “projected” list that I feel deserve to be in. Maryland probably looks awkward being on the outside looking in but Maryland’s season has been overwhelmingly unimpressive. If they get in, it will be on reputation alone. The rest of these teams are virtual locks to miss the tournament with the exception of UAB. The Selection Committee has been kind to UAB in past seasons. There have been a couple of occasions where I’ve been surprised to see the Blazers show up on Selection Sunday. Because of that, I would not be shocked to see them again this year. However, there are far more deserving candidates.

1. UAB

UAB is a victim of a poor schedule. For the majority of the season, I had UAB pegged as a tournament team. UAB has done nothing but win since yet I have them headed to the NIT. The Blazers can blame its 170th ranked strength of schedule for missing the tournament this year. Louisville, Cincinnati and Marquette’s departure to the Big East caused Conference USA to plummet in the conference ratings. That left few marquee games for UAB. The Blazers did play and beat some name schools in its non-conference schedule (Massachusetts, Nebraska, Old Dominion, and Oklahoma St.) but none of those schools appear in the RPI top 50. UAB’s best win this season was against fellow conference foe Houston. That leaves a lot to be desired. UAB does have one chance at making the tournament and that involves beating Memphis in its last regular season game. The game will be at home which gives UAB a chance. A loss would close the door on a tournament bid. A win would likely give UAB a marquee win good enough to send it to the NCAA Tournament. I’d say the chances are about 15%.

RPI rating: 52
Pomeroy rating: 51

Quality wins: Houston
Bad losses: none

2. Maryland

Maryland is on Selection Sunday life-support. The Terps have to win their last two conference games (Miami and @ Virginia) just to have a shot at making the tournament. Both of those games are winnable. That would leave Maryland at 8-8 in the ACC and 17-11 overall heading into the ACC Tournament. Assuming Maryland gets to 8-8 in the ACC, a first round loss in the ACC Tournament would likely keep Maryland out of the tournament. This is a quintessential bubble team. If it were up to me, Maryland would not make the tournament. Its resume is extremely light on quality wins with zero wins in the RPI top 34.

RPI rating: 51
Pomeroy rating: 54

Quality wins: Arkansas (neutral) Boston College
Bad losses: @ Clemson

3. Seton Hall

Seton Hall seemed like a lock just a few weeks ago. Enter a 1-4 stretch that included three losses to teams with an RPI of 90 or higher and the Pirates have fallen all the way to 60 in the RPI. That number is too low to overcome for any team, not to mention a team that might finish below .500 in its conference and has six losses to teams outside of the RPI top 87. Seton Hall’s strength of schedule would be considered a good thing considering it played both Duke and Connecticut. However, it lost both of those games by a combined 95 points. The door is still open for the Hall but considering its final two Big East games are against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, things will likely continue to fall apart for Seton Hall.

RPI rating: 60
Pomeroy rating: 61

Quality wins: @ N. Carolina St, @ Syracuse, W. Virginia

Bad losses: @Richmond, Northwestern, @ Rutgers, @ St. John’s, and @ DePaul

4. Houston

At least Conference USA is fair to its bubble teams. Houston, like UAB, will also have a season ending shot at making the tournament in the form of playing Memphis. Unfortunately for Houston, it has to play at Memphis. As far as I was concerned, Houston only needed to win its remaining regular season games sans Memphis to get serious consideration for the tournament. Instead, Houston lost to UTEP last week which put it in the back of the pack for bubble teams. Last week, ESPN was talking about Conference USA getting three bids. The way I see it, they will get one assuming Memphis wins the conference tournament.

RPI rating: 54
Pomeroy rating: 79

Quality wins: @ LSU, Arizona, UTEP

Bad losses: @ S. Alabama, @ UNLV, @ Rice, and C. Florida


5. Utah St.

Utah St. won’t blow anyone away with its 97th rated schedule but it is 6-2 in the RPI top 100. The problem for Utah St. is that it has five losses outside of the RPI top 100. There is no way that a team with that on its resume will get an at-large bid. Utah St. will have to win its conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. I feel obligated to include the Aggies on this list because they have a fairly impressive RPI of 49 which could rise a few spots by the end of the year.

RPI rating: 49
Pomeroy rating: 62

Quality wins: @ Nevada, BYU, and Northwestern St.

Bad losses: @ Middle Tennessee, @ Utah, @ Fresno St, New Mexico, and @ New Mexico


Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament
#49 Utah St.
#50 St. Joseph's
#51 Maryland
#52 UAB
#54 Houston
#55 Old Dominion
#56 BYU
#57 Texas A&M
#58 San Diego St.
#60 Seton Hall
#61 Temple
#62 Vanderbilt
#64 UTEP
#65 Florida St.


Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament
#59 California
#48 Colorado
#46 Arkansas
#45 Indiana
#44 Kansas
#43 Bradley
#42 Kentucky
#41 S.Illinois
#40 Bucknell
#39 Air Force
#38 Hofstra
#37 NC Wilmington
#36 Alabama
#35 Boston College




Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (5)
Duke
NC State
Boston College
N. Carolina
Maryland


SEC (6)
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
Alabama

Big East (8)
UCONN
Syracuse
Villanova
Pittsburgh
W. Virginia
Cincinnati
Marquette
Georgetown

Big 12 (4)
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Colorado


Big Ten (7)
Illinois
MSU
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Iowa

Pac-10 (4)
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
California


C-USA (1)
Memphis

A-10 (1)
GW


MVC (6)
N. Iowa
Creighton
Wichita St.
S. Illinois
Missouri St.
Bradley

(3)
George Mason
NC Wilmington
Hofstra

NCAA Tournament Projections (week of 2-21)

With most teams having no more than four regular season games remaining, the projected field is starting to shape up. Some teams that look to be in trouble (i.e. Maryland) have three winnable games remaining while other teams that appear to be in solid shape (i.e. Cincinnati) may not win another game this season. The last two weeks of conference play will determine which teams slip out of the field and which teams slide in. There was only one change to my projected field this week as I replaced Indiana with NC Wilmington. I had originally included Houston but NC Wilmington’s RPI is 20 spots higher which gives them the nod. I did not make any changes to my projected automatic bids.



Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):

1 ACC Duke
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East UCONN
4 Big 12 Texas
5 Big Ten Illinois
6 Pac-10 Washington
7 MVC N. Iowa
8 MWC San Diego St.
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10George Washington
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt W. Kentucky
16 Horizon Wisconsin-Mil.
17 MAAC Iona
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC IUPUI
20 Big West Pacific
21 OVC Murray St.
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Bucknell
25 Southland Northwestern St.
26 Northeast Farleigh Dickinson
27 AEC Albany
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Seton Hall
33 At-Large Syracuse
34 At-Large Villanova
35 At-Large Pittsburgh
36 At-Large W. Virginia
37 At-Large Cincinnati
38 At-Large Marquette
39 At-Large Georgetown
40 At-Large NC State
41 At-Large Boston College
42 At-Large N. Carolina
43 At-Large Maryland
44 At-Large California
45 At-Large MSU
46 At-Large NC Wilmington
47 At-Large Michigan
48 At-Large Ohio St.
49 At-Large Wisconsin
50 At-Large Iowa
51 At-Large Kentucky
52 At-Large Tennessee
53 At-Large LSU
54 At-Large Alabama
55 At-Large Oklahoma
56 At-Large Kansas
57 At-Large Colorado
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Arizona
60 At-Large UCLA
61 At-Large UAB
62 At-Large Missouri St.
63 At-Large Wichita St.
64 At-Large Creighton
65 At-Large S. Illinois

I haven't listed the 65 teams in order yet. I'll start doing that in a few weeks. The field that I have "projected" now assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets.

Lowest at-large teams in the tourney from RPI
#65 California
#57 Arkansas
#53 UAB
#47 Colorado
#45 Maryland
#44 Seton Hall
#41 Kansas
#39 Kentucky
#38 Alabama
#37 NC Wilmington
#36 S. Illinois
#35 Washington
#34 Boston College
#33 George Washington
#32 Syracuse
#31 Michigan
#30 Creighton


Highest teams ommitted from RPI
#43 Indiana
#46 Hofstra
#48 St. Joseph's
#49 Air Force
#50 Utah St.
#51 Bradley
#52 Old Dominion
#55 Houston
#56 BYU
#58 S. Carolina
#60 Florida St.
#61 Vanderbilt
#62 Louisiana Tech
#63 Temple
#64 Minnesota
#66 Clemson
#67 Louisville


The last seven teams in the tourney right now:

1. S. Illinois

The Missouri Valley Conference went into the Bracket Buster Tournament with a chance to prove itself as a power conference deserving of five bids. Although some analysts felt that the MVC fell on its face, I didn’t see it that way. The conference’s top seven teams went 5-2. The only bad loss was the S. Illinois home loss to Louisiana Tech. Wichita St. lost the conference’s other game to George Mason which is nothing to be embarrassed about. S. Illinois would’ve been a sure bet to make the NCAA Tournament with a win over La. Tech. A respectable RPI and a couple of big wins against MVC teams are keeping S. Illinois in the tournament right now. However, with a conference game against N. Iowa still on the schedule and the MVC Tournament still to come, the Salukis will likely finish the regular season with ten losses which isn’t ideal for a team looking for a fifth bid from a mid-major conference.


RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 59

Quality wins: Wichita St., Bradley, Creighton, @ Creighton, Missouri St., Kent St., @ Murray St.

Bad losses: (neutral) Monmouth, @ Alaska-Anchorage, @ St. Louis

2. UAB

UAB probably has the weakest resume of any team seeking an at-large bid. In fact, I can’t rationalize putting UAB in the tournament ahead of Houston. I’m only projecting them ahead of Houston right now because I’m predicting that the committee would take UAB right now. Houston has a couple of bad losses and UAB beat Houston in their only meeting. Luckily for UAB, that meeting was a home game. UAB’s RPI is virtually the same as Houston’s. If UAB loses to SMU or Marshall, it will be out of the tournament field. The same would happen if UAB is upset in the C-USA tournament. C-USA’s RPI is so weak that teams will have to stand out to get a bid.


RPI rating: 53
Pomeroy rating: 56

Quality wins: Old Dominion, Houston

Bad losses: @ DePaul, @ Minnesota, @ UTEP


3. NC Wilmington

The selection committee has historically been kind to mid-major teams with very good computer ratings. NC Wilmington fits the bill. However, NC Wilmington’s resume is very close to the caliber of fellow Colonial Conference member Hofstra. NC Wilmington’s signature win this season was against the conference’s best team; George Mason. It also went 1-1 against Hofstra. Despite its impressive RPI, NC Wilmington only has two quality wins this season. A loss against Va. Commonwealth on Thursday would likely put NC Wilmington out of the tournament.


RPI rating: 37
Pomeroy rating: 52

Quality wins: George Mason, Hofstra

Bad losses: College of Charleston, @ East Carolina


4.Arkansas

Arkansas finally got its marquee win over Florida on Saturday. That win catapulted the Razorbacks into the tournament field. Arkansas will likely lose its next two games before winning its last two to finish 8-8 in the conference. With many close losses against good teams, Arkansas’ resume is much more impressive than its RPI indicates. It would take a 1-3 finish for Arkansas to miss the tourney.

RPI rating: 57
Pomeroy rating: 26

Quality wins: Kansas (neutral), Missouri St, Vanderbilt, Florida

Bad losses: @ Mississippi St., @ Mississippi

5. Michigan

Michigan’s long, slow demise has been equal parts crushing and expected for Michigan fans. Anybody who glanced ahead at the Big Ten schedule back in December and January could’ve predicted Michigan’s February swoon. However, injuries to Lester Abram, Dion Harris, Jerret Smith, and Chris Hunter certainly made things worse. Michigan will likely lose its next two games against Illinois and Ohio St. setting up what amounts to a one-game tournament against Indiana. If Michigan beats Indiana, then the Wolverines are in. If Michigan loses, it will finish 7-9 in the Big Ten having gone 1-7 in its last eight games. At that point, Michigan would have to reach the Big Ten tournament finals just to be considered. With Indiana struggling, Michigan might be able to squeeze out a win. This is a team that will be considerably better come the second week in March with the return of four key players.

RPI rating: 31
Pomeroy rating: 38

Quality wins: Michigan St., Wisconsin

Bad losses: @ Purdue

6. Cincinnati

Cincinnati looks like a lock to make the tournament. However, I don’t think they will make it. I would not be surprised to see the Bearcats lose their last three games and miss the tournament. Cincy has an incredibly high RPI but that might not be good enough to offset a 18-13 record with few marquee wins. The good news for Bearcats fans is that Cincy only needs to win one of its remaining three games to clinch a tourney bid. I’d put the odds right at 50/50.

RPI rating: 27
Pomeroy rating: 40

Quality wins: @ Vanderbilt, LSU (neutral site), @ Marquette, @ Syracuse

Bad losses: Dayton




The teams waiting in the wings:


1. Houston

If UAB is a tournament team, then Houston should be a tournament team as well. Granted, UAB won the only meeting between the teams but it was a home game. The outcome could’ve very well been different if the game was played in Houston. Also, the Cougars have two wins over top twenty teams (LSU and Arizona). Conversely, UAB has zero wins over top 50 teams. If I had to choose, I would take Houston. A bid for UAB would be rewarding a team for playing an incredibly easy schedule.

RPI rating: 55
Pomeroy rating: 84

Quality wins: @ LSU, Arizona

Bad losses: @ Rice, C. Florida, @ UNLV, @ S. Alabama

2. Utah St.

The Aggies are a tough team to figure out when analyzing their tournament chances. Their schedule looks like a bunch of meaningless games wrapped around two games against Nevada. Utah St. has an impressive record but it becomes less impressive when strength of schedule is taken into consideration. Utah St. has one win over the RPI top 55. It has five losses to the RPI +100. The WAC has a fairly decent power rating which gives some credence to the conference receiving two bids but I just don’t see it happening. The power of a specific conference really shouldn’t dictate how many teams that conference gets in the tournament. It’s entirely feasible for a conference to be top-heavy.


RPI rating: 50
Pomeroy rating: 54

Quality wins: BYU, @ Nevada

Bad losses: New Mexico St., @ New Mexico St., @ Middle Tennessee, @ Utah, @ Fresno St.

3. FSU

Florida St. has a terrible RPI. They haven’t beaten anyone of note. Yet, there is a strong possibility that the Seminoles will finish 8-8 in the ACC which could be good enough for an at-large bid. I would not put them in the tournament simply because of an 8-8 ACC record but stranger things have happened. The Seminoles would have to beat Maryland, Va. Tech and Miami (FL). If they lose one of those games, they are NIT bound.

RPI rating: 60
Pomeroy rating: 31

Quality wins: none

Bad losses: @ Clemson

4. Air Force

Air Force’s resume is deplorable. Only one team in the RPI top 55 even shows up on the schedule at all (a loss to Washington). Air Force has the 168th ranked strength of schedule. Also, Air Force’s best win is over San Diego St. which has an RPI of 59. In my opinion, no team with a strength of schedule as low as Air Force’s with no wins against the RPI top 55 deserves to make the tournament.

RPI rating: 49
Pomeroy rating: 42

Quality wins: none

Bad losses: @ Wyoming, @ New Mexico


5. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is nowhere near making the tournament as of today. However, if the Commodores go 3-1 in their last four games, they would be 8-8 in the SEC. That would give them a fighting chance to get an at-large bid. Vanderbilt should be able to beat S. Carolina and Mississippi. That would set up two games against LSU and Tennessee for a shot at the tournament. Vanderbilt controls its own destiny.


RPI rating: 61
Pomeroy rating: 50

Quality wins: @ Georgetown, @ Kentucky, Kentucky

Bad losses:
6. Hofstra

If NC Wilmington is a tournament team, then Hofstra is a tournament team too. Here is a comparison of the two teams:

Hofstra

Record: 19-5 (11-4)
Wins vs. RPI top 55: 3
Losses vs RPI 175 +: 1
Record vs. NC Wilmington 1-1

NC Wilmington

Record: 20-7 (13-3)
Wins over RPI top 55: 2
Losses vs RPI 175 +: 2
Record vs. Hofstra 1-1

NC Wilmington did beat George Mason. Hofstra has yet to play George Mason. I’m not saying that Hofstra deserves a bid over NC Wilmington, I’m just saying that Hofstra has every bit the argument to merit at-large consideration. Hofstra won’t receive an at-large bid unless it wins its remaining conference games and reaches the Colonial tournament finals.

RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 70

Quality wins: NC Wilmington, Old Dominion, @ Old Dominion

Bad losses: @ Towson, @ Northeastern

7. Bradley

If Bradley were in any other mid-major conference, my guess is that they would be in line for an at-large bid. Unfortunately for Bradley, they play in a conference that’s having quite possibly the greatest season ever by a mid-major conference. Bradley has five wins over the RPI top 42. However, a 9-7 record in a mid-major conference won’t be good enough for a bid in any season. Bradley is NIT bound.

RPI rating: 51
Pomeroy rating: 44

Quality wins: W. Kentucky, N. Iowa, Creighton, Missouri St., S. Illinois

Bad losses: @ Loyola Chicago, @ Butler, @ Drake, @ Indiana St.

8. Stanford

Stanford is 9-5 in the Pac-10. I don’t think there has been a team in college basketball history from a major conference to finish four games above .500 in conference and miss the tournament. Stanford will probably be the first team. If the Cardinal can go 3-1 in its last four games, that would be good enough for a 12-6 conference record. The selection committee would then be forced into the unenviable position of deciding Stanford’s tournament fate. For those of you wondering what the problem with Stanford getting a bid is, it has to do with Stanford’s abysmal RPI rating of 88.


RPI rating: 88
Pomeroy rating: 68

Quality wins: California, Washington

Bad losses: UC Irvine, @ Montana, @ UC Davis, Va. Tech, @ USC

Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (5)
Duke
NC State
Boston College
N. Carolina
Maryland


SEC (6)
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
Alabama

Big East (9)
UCONN
Syracuse
Villanova
Pittsburgh
W. Virginia
Cincinnati
Marquette
Georgetown
Seton Hall

Big 12 (4)
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Colorado


Big Ten (6)
Illinois
MSU
Michigan
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Iowa

Pac-10 (4)
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
California


C-USA (2)
Memphis
UAB

A-10 (1)
GW


MVC (5)
N. Iowa
Creighton
Wichita St.
S. Illinois
Missouri St.

Colonial (2)
George Mason
NC Wilmington

NCAA Tournament Projections (week of 2-13)

As the season rolls along, each week provides less movement by teams going on and off my projected NCAA Tournament list. However, a two or three game winning/losing streak can happen in just seven short days. That means teams can go from firmly being in the projections (Michigan, Kentucky) to barely hanging on to an at-large bid in the span of a week. Conversely, teams can go from “also-ran” status to being firmly in the field (Alabama, Seton Hall). It seems like this year’s crop of bubble teams is much weaker than in years past. Teams like Cincinnati and Kentucky are carrying around questionable resumes but with a short list of qualified teams to take their place, I can’t project those two teams out of the tournament yet.

Here are the changes I made to the projected automatic bid winners:


MWC San Diego St. replaces Air Force
Big West Pacific replaces UC Irvine


Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):

1 ACC Duke
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East UCONN
4 Big 12 Texas
5 Big Ten Illinois
6 Pac-10 Washington
7 MVC N. Iowa
8 MWC San Diego St.
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 George Washington
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt W. Kentucky
16 Horizon Wisconsin-Mil.
17 MAAC Iona
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC IUPUI
20 Big West Pacific
21 OVC Murray St.
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Bucknell
25 Southland Northwestern St.
26 Northeast Farleigh Dickinson
27 AEC Albany
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Seton Hall
33 At-Large Syracuse
34 At-Large Villanova
35 At-Large Pittsburgh
36 At-Large W. Virginia
37 At-Large Cincinnati
38 At-Large Marquette
39 At-Large Georgetown
40 At-Large NC State
41 At-Large Boston College
42 At-Large N. Carolina
43 At-Large Maryland
44 At-Large California
45 At-Large MSU
46 At-Large Indiana
47 At-Large Michigan
48 At-Large Ohio St.
49 At-Large Wisconsin
50 At-Large Iowa
51 At-Large Kentucky
52 At-Large Tennessee
53 At-Large LSU
54 At-Large Alabama
55 At-Large Oklahoma
56 At-Large Kansas
57 At-Large Colorado
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Arizona
60 At-Large UCLA
61 At-Large UAB
62 At-Large Missouri St.
63 At-Large Wichita St.
64 At-Large Creighton
65 At-Large S. Illinois

I haven't listed the 65 teams in order yet. I'll start doing that in a few weeks. The field that I have "projected" now assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets.

The last seven teams in the tourney right now:

1. Alabama

Alabama is projected to be in the tournament for the first time since November. The Crimson Tide opened the season on a disappointing note after unanimously being considered a top 25 team. On Dec. 31, Alabama stood at 6-5. Now, the Tide is 14-8 including an impressive 7-3 record in the SEC. This past week, Alabama beat LSU, Vanderbilt and Mississippi. If Alabama can finish its last six conference games at 3-3 or better, it will be tourney bound.

RPI rating: 42
Pomeroy rating: 73

Quality wins: @ Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, Vanderbilt

Bad losses: Mississippi, @ Georgia


2. Arkansas


The Razorbacks almost pulled off a tournament bid-clinching victory at LSU this week. Instead of picking up the monumental win, they lost 78-77 to stay firmly on the bubble. Arkansas has the lowest RPI of any team that I have projected in the tournament field. I have to admit that I’m a bit confused by its low number. The Razorbacks have good non-conference wins and stand at 5-5 in the SEC. Also, in each of Arkansas five conference losses, it has lost by less than five points. Arkansas’ Pomeroy rating is very impressive at 26 so hopefully the selection committee will take that into consideration. Nonetheless, it looks like Arkansas will have to pull off a big win down the stretch to improve its RPI to something more respectable.

RPI rating: 66
Pomeroy rating: 26

Quality wins: Kansas (neutral site), Missouri St., Vanderbilt,

Bad losses: @ Mississippi


3. Cincinnati

I don’t think Cincinnati will make the tournament. Its remaining Big East schedule is just too daunting. The Bearcats are only 5-6 in the conference with games @ Syracuse, Villanova, @ Seton Hall, and W. Virginia still left on their schedule. I don’t anticipate Cincinnati doing any better than 2-3 in those games leaving it at 7-9 in conference play. Even though there are worse resumes among bubble teams in terms of “bad losses” and “RPI”, Cincinnati’s is hardly impressive.

RPI rating: 32
Pomeroy rating: 49

Quality wins: LSU (neutral site), @ Vanderbilt, @ Marquette,

Bad losses: Dayton


4. Kentucky


Kentucky is in trouble. I thought the Wildcats would take advantage of a weak SEC. It looked like they were going to do just that after starting off 5-2 in conference play. However, three straight losses have put Kentucky at an unenviable record of 15-9. With a resume lacking of quality wins, Kentucky needs to beat a good team. The good news for Kentucky is that the next three games should be wins (Georgia, @ S. Carolina, and Mississippi). That would set up Kentucky nicely for its brutal three-game stretch to close out SEC play which includes game @ LSU, @ Tennessee, and Florida. A 4-2 record in those six games would clinch a bid. A 3-3 record would probably require a strong showing in the SEC tournament. A team with 13 losses doesn’t normally get into the tournament.

RPI rating: 44
Pomeroy rating: 53

Quality wins: W. Virginia (neutral site), Arkansas

Bad losses: none

5. Missouri St.

No team did more for its tournament chances this week than Missouri St. Last week, it looked like Missouri St. was destined for the NIT. The Bears beat N. Iowa on the road in a must-win game to raise their RPI to an impressive 26. The Missouri Valley Conference usually doesn’t stand a chance at four at-large bids but the teams from this conference are forcing the committee’s hand by keeping their RPI’s in the top 30. Missouri St. was lacking a marquee win to go along with an impressive record and solid RPI. The victory on the road over N. Iowa has bolstered an already strong resume.

RPI rating: 26
Pomeroy rating: 30

Quality wins: S. Illinois, Bradley, @ N. Iowa

Bad losses: none

6. Indiana

Indiana is a mess right now. What looked to be a promising season has gone south. It wasn’t a coincidence that Indiana’s struggles started when D.J. White went down for the season. The Hoosiers are wasting the unexpected emergence of senior transfer Marco Killingsworth. This was the season for Indiana to break out. Since it didn’t happen, this could be the season that puts Mike Davis on notice. Fans in Bloomington want more than what they’re getting and Davis obviously knows this after his comment this past week. Luckily for Indiana, there is a Big Ten team that is struggling even more. That team is Michigan. Indiana has six Big Ten games remaining. With two games against Penn St. and two others against Purdue and Michigan, the Hoosiers should go 4-2 in those games which would be good enough for 9-7 in the Big Ten. That would get Indiana in.

RPI rating: 35
Pomeroy rating: 50

Quality wins: Kentucky, Ohio St., Illinois

Bad losses: @ Indiana St., @ Minnesota

8. Michigan

If the season ended today, Michigan would be in the tournament. Unfortunately for Michigan, the season doesn’t end today and they won’t be in the tournament come March. The bad breaks keep coming in Ann Arbor for Tommy Amaker. Two weeks ago, if you would’ve asked a college basketball “expert” whether Michigan will make the tournament or not, they’d laugh in your face for asking such a silly question. Three straight losses later, the wheels are falling off. Entering this week, Michigan only needed to beat Purdue and Minnesota to secure a tournament bid. That means Michigan could’ve gone 2-4 in its last six games and still made the tournament. Michigan got blasted by Purdue this week which leaves only one winnable game left on the schedule. Michigan will like lose its last four games and finish 7-9 in the Big Ten.

RPI rating: 31
Pomeroy rating: 39

Quality wins: Michigan St., Wisconsin

Bad losses: @ Purdue



The teams waiting in the wings:

The teams on this list aren’t as close to being in the tournament as it appears. As of now, I can conveniently assume that teams like Gonzaga and Nevada will win their conference’s automatic bids. If they don’t, some of the teams that I have projected in the tournament will get bumped which will push the teams below even farther down the list. But, like Alabama and Seton Hall, it is possible for a team to come off of this list and jump into the 65-team field.


1. Vanderbilt

Vandy is holding on to a position on the bubble admirably. After embarking on a four-game losing streak, Vandy beat Kentucky for the second time this season to bring its conference record to 4-6. If the Commodores can go 4-2 in their last six conference games, they will make the NCAA Tournament. The problem is that I see three wins at the most.

RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 60

Quality wins: @ Georgetown, @ Kentucky, Kentucky

Bad losses: @ Ga. Tech, Georgia

2. NC Wilmington

My guess is that NC Wilmington will have a top 45 RPI at the end of the season. The question will be whether or not NC Wilmington’s unimpressive resume is impressive enough for the selection committee. The Seahawks have virtually no marquee wins while playing in a mid-tier conference. That doesn’t bode well for a tournament bid.

RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 54

Quality wins: George Mason

Bad losses: College of Charleston, E. Carolina,

3. Xavier

Xavier should not make the tournament. Short of winning the A-10 conference tournament, Xavier can’t possibly do enough with its remaining schedule to earn an at-large bid. The Musketeers are 5-5 in an incredibly weak A-10 conference. They have one quality win and that was at home, in overtime over a struggling Cincinnati team. Xavier’s RPI is a disaster at 74.

RPI rating: 74
Pomeroy rating: 52

Quality wins: Cincinnati

Bad losses: St. Louis, @ St. Louis, LaSalle

4. Air Force

While Air Force has been impressive at times, losing four times in the Mountain West Conference is not the best way to get noticed by the committee. The Falcons need to win the MWC to make the tournament. San Diego St. appears to be the best team in the conference while Air Force is battling UNLV and BYU for second place. Air Force has no marquee wins and an average RPI.

RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 44

Quality wins: Miami (FL)

Bad losses: @ Wyoming, @ New Mexico, @ BYU


5. Houston

Of all the teams on this list, Houston has the best shot at receiving an at-large bid. It might not look like it now, but the Cougars could finish the regular season at 19-7 and 10-4 in Conference USA. Earlier in the year, Houston won at LSU and beat Arizona. Those two wins are as impressive as any combination of wins by a team on the bubble. My guess is that Houston will not make the tournament due to the mediocrity of C-USA. But, if teams like Michigan, Indiana, and Kentucky continue to struggle, Houston’s resume might end up being good enough squeeze in.

RPI rating: 59
Pomeroy rating: 91

Quality wins: @ LSU, Arizona

Bad losses: @ S. Alabama, @ Rice, Central Florida

6. Louisville

Louisville has seven Big East games left. If the Cardinals go 5-2 in those games, I think they will likely get an at-large bid. Anything less would mean an NIT berth for a team that started the season in the top 10. I don’t think computer ratings and quality wins or losses will come into play for Louisville. I think it will all come down to whether it has a .500 or better conference record. 8-8 will probably get them in. 7-9 will keep them out.

RPI rating: 65
Pomeroy rating: 45

Quality wins:

Bad losses: none

7. Florida St.

Florida St. is in the same category as Houston. Right now, FSU does not look like a threat to make the tournament. However, at 5-5 in the ACC, FSU has legitimate shot at finishing 8-8 in the ACC. For a conference that is considered among the top two in college basketball, a sixth team would not be a lot to ask for. FSU needs to beat Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Miami (FL) to get to 8-8. I doubt those wins will improve FSU’s weak RPI but 8-8 goes a long way in the ACC.

RPI rating: 67
Pomeroy rating: 28

Quality wins: @ Virginia

Bad losses: @ Clemson

8. Miami (FL)

On the surface, it looks like Miami (FL) would have a better shot at making the tournament since it stands at 6-5 in the ACC. However, with a tough remaining schedule, Miami might only pick up one more win in conference play. If Miami can win two (the best chance for this would be wins over Va. Tech and Florida St.), it will be at 8-8 in the ACC. There is probably a 50/50 chance that either FSU or Miami will finish at 8-8 in the ACC.

RPI rating: 82
Pomeroy rating: 58

Quality wins: Maryland, @ N. Carolina, @ FSU

Bad losses: none

9. Virginia

Like FSU and Miami, Virginia could reach 8-8 in the ACC. It would only require two victories over FSU and Clemson. The problem for Virginia is that 8-8 in the ACC would only be good enough for a 15-12 record overall. Virginia only has one marquee win this season. Virginia would have the worst shot at receiving an at-large bid of the teams that could finish at 8-8 in the ACC.

RPI rating: 56
Pomeroy rating: 65

Quality wins: N. Carolina, Miami (FL)

Bad losses: @ Ga. Tech, Fordham



10 Iowa St.
11 Utah St.
12 S. Carolina
13 Stanford
14 Hofstra
15 Old Dominion


Here are the highest rated (RPI) teams that I have projected out of the tournament:

#45 NC Wilmington
#46 Air Force
#50 St. Joseph's
#51 Old Dominion
#52 South Carolina
#53 Utah St.
#54 Hofstra
#56 Virginia
#57 Temple
#58 Vanderbilt
#59 Houston
#61 BYU
#62 Bradley
#63 Iowa St.
#64 Virginia Commonwealth
#65 Louisville


Here are the lowest rated (RPI) teams that I project to be in the tournament

#66 Arkansas
#55 California
#49 Colorado
#48 UAB
#44 Kentucky
#43 Kansas
#42 Alabama
#41 Maryland
#40 Washington
#36 Marquette
#35 Indiana
#33 Seton Hall
#32 Cincinnati
#31 Michigan
#30 Creighton
#29 Boston College


Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (5)
Duke
NC State
Boston College
N. Carolina
Maryland


SEC (6)
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
Alabama

Big East (9)
UCONN
Syracuse
Villanova
Pittsburgh
W. Virginia
Cincinnati
Marquette
Georgetown
Seton Hall

Big 12 (4)
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Colorado


Big Ten (7)
Illinois
MSU
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Iowa

Pac-10 (4)
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
California


C-USA (2)
Memphis
UAB

A-10 (1)
GW


MVC (5)
N. Iowa
Creighton
Wichita St.
S. Illinois
Missouri St.

NCAA Tournament Projections (week of 2-6)

There are quite a few teams in college basketball that are seemingly attempting to play their way out of the NCAA Tournament. Xavier, Washington, Arizona, and Vanderbilt are just a few teams that have failed to match their early season successes. Stanford, California and Miami (FL) have made the best of their second seasons (conference play) after horrible starts to the season. I only made one adjustment to my projected at-large bids this week and that was replacing a struggling Vanderbilt team with an Iowa St. team that seems to be treading water. As bad as teams like Xavier have been, there isn’t a slew of teams with impressive resumes waiting to replace them. Just when I think a team like Temple is going to just up and steal a spot from a struggling team like Xavier, they lose to LaSalle. The season is starting to get interesting. I’m pay particular attention to Stanford’s quest at making the tournament with possibly the worst non-conference performance by an at-large team in tournament history. I’m also interested in seeing how Miami does in its next four games.

Here are the changes I made to the projected automatic bid winners:

OVC Murray St. replaces Samford
Atl. Sun Belmont replaces Lipscomb
Northeast Farleigh Dickinson replaces C. Connecticut St.
Big Sky N. Arizona replaces Montana
MAC Kent St. replaces Akron


Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):

1 ACC Duke
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Connecticut
4 Big 12 Texas
5 Big Ten Illinois
6 Pac-10 Washington
7 MVC N. Iowa
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt W. Kentucky
16 Horizon Wisconsin-Mil.
17 MAAC Iona
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC IUPUI
20 Big West UC-Irvine
21 OVC Murray St.
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Bucknell
25 Southland Northwestern St.
26 Northeast Farleigh Dickinson
27 AEC Albany
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Seton Hall
33 At-Large Syracuse
34 At-Large Villanova
35 At-Large Pittsburgh
36 At-Large W. Virginia
37 At-Large Cincinnati
38 At-Large Marquette
39 At-Large Georgetown
40 At-Large NC State
41 At-Large Boston College
42 At-Large N. Carolina
43 At-Large Maryland
44 At-Large California
45 At-Large MSU
46 At-Large Indiana
47 At-Large Michigan
48 At-Large Ohio St.
49 At-Large Wisconsin
50 At-Large Iowa
51 At-Large Kentucky
52 At-Large Tennessee
53 At-Large LSU
54 At-Large Iowa St.
55 At-Large Oklahoma
56 At-Large Kansas
57 At-Large Colorado
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Arizona
60 At-Large UCLA
61 At-Large UAB
62 At-Large GW
63 At-Large Wichita St.
64 At-Large Creighton
65 At-Large S. Illinois

I haven't listed the 65 teams in order yet. I'll start doing that in a few weeks. The field that I have "projected" now assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That could push five, if not more, of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets.

The last seven teams in the tourney right now:

1. Xavier

I think it’s safe to say that Xavier doesn’t have a lot going for it right now. After playing “under the radar” for much of the season, the Musketeers have just about played their way out of the tournament field. Just two weeks ago, Xavier was 12-2 with a victory over Cincinnati and two narrow losses to Illinois and Creighton. Xavier followed its fast start with a 1-4 stretch including two losses to St. Louis. The only reason that I haven’t taken Xavier out of the Tournament all together is because of its incredibly easy league schedule to close out the season. It would not surprise me if Xavier goes 7-1 in its last eight games. Anything worse than that would likely put Xavier in the NIT.


RPI rating: 69
Pomeroy rating: 41

Quality wins: Cincinnati, @ St. Joseph’s

Bad losses: St. Louis, @ St. Louis,

2. Arkansas

Arkansas only played once this past week but it was a big win against S. Carolina. The Razorbacks are 15-6 on the season and 4-4 in the SEC. I think Arkansas can sneak into the tournament with an 8-8 league record. With Vanderbilt struggling, the SEC needs a fifth team. Arkansas and Alabama are the only other teams in the mix. The Razorbacks have impressive victories over Kansas and Missouri St. Unfortunately for Arkansas, its RPI rating is dangerously low and 8-8 in the SEC is no sure thing with games against all of the conferences best teams still to come. If Arkansas goes 3-1 in its next four games, then the tournament is a likely proposition.

RPI rating: 67
Pomeroy rating: 36

Quality wins: Kansas, Missouri St., Vanderbilt

Bad losses: @ Mississippi St.


3. Cincinnati

I don’t think Cincinnati will hold on to make the tournament. I have to give them the benefit of the doubt right now considering its RPI rating and resume to date. The Bearcats have beaten Vanderbilt and Marquette on the road and LSU at a neutral site. As impressive is that is, the bigger issue is how Cincy will manage to finish above .500 in the Big East. The remaining conference slate is brutal. The Bearcats would be lucky to go 3-4 in their last seven conference games which would only be good enough for 7-9 on the season. That probably won’t cut it unless their RPI is in the top 35.

RPI rating: 35
Pomeroy rating: 48

Quality wins: @ Vanderbilt, @ Marquette, and LSU (neutral site)

Bad losses: Dayton


4. Iowa St.

I took Iowa St. out of my projected field last week only to put the Cyclones right back in this week. Like Arkansas, Iowa St. only played one game this week but it was possibly the biggest game of the season for the Cyclones. They beat Colorado to bring their conference record to 4-4. With a relatively easy game against Kansas St up next, Iowa St. should be 14-7 overall and 5-4 in the conference heading into a big rematch against Kansas. Iowa St’s non-conference success would be enough to put it into the tournament with a .500 conference record. Anything less would likely mean an NIT bid considering how weak the Big XII is this year.

RPI rating: 53
Pomeroy rating: 54

Quality wins: Iowa, N. Iowa, Northwestern St., Colorado

Bad losses: Fresno St., @ Texas Tech, Texas A&M

5. S. Illinois

At this point in the season, it looks like the Missouri Valley Conference will get at least three teams into the tournament with the possibility of a fourth. S. Illinois lost a heart breaker on Saturday to Wichita St. but that wasn’t the loss that crippled its resume. The Salukis lost to conference bottom dweller Indiana St. That loss could also be the game that costs S. Illinois a shot at the conference title. Despite going 0-2 last week, S. Illinois has a very good RPI score and an equally impressive conference record (9-4) in the MVC. All of that means nothing if S. Illinois loses at home to Missouri St. this week. My prediction is that the loser of that game will not make the tournament. Both teams should look at that game as an elimination game as far as contending for an at-large birth.


RPI rating: 39
Pomeroy rating: 58

Quality wins: Kent St., Creighton, Bradley, Wichita St., @ Murray St.

Bad losses: Indiana St., Monmouth (neutral site), @Alaska-Anchorage, @St. Louis

6. Washington

Washington is sitting a little prettier than its RPI would indicate. The Huskies are at .500 in the Pac-10 including their current three-game losing streak. If Washington loses to USC on Thursday, they will be on the outside looking in. However, assuming the Huskies beat USC and take advantage of their remaining weak Pac-10 schedule, they will make the tournament on the strength of victories over Gonzaga, UCLA, and Air Force.

RPI rating: 59
Pomeroy rating: 35

Quality wins: Gonzaga, UCLA, and Air Force

Bad losses: Washington St., @ Washington St.

7. Arizona

If RPI counted for everything, Arizona would have no reason to worry. However, the RPI only adds or subtracts to a team’s record and resume. Arizona is at a tournament unfriendly 13-9 on the season. The good news for the Wildcats is that they don’t have to play UCLA anymore this season. Their talent should be enough to go on a mini-run to finish the Pac-10 schedule. Arizona has played a brutal schedule which should look good to the selection committee. However, there is a point at which a record can be so bad as to override computer numbers and a tough schedule. Arizona would do well by not losing more than two more games in the Pac-10.

RPI rating: 17
Pomeroy rating: 42

Quality wins: Kansas (neutral site), Virginia, W. Kentucky, @ Washington, California

Bad losses: @ Houston, @ Oregon St., @ Oregon, @ USC



The teams waiting in the wings:


1. Missouri St.

This spot should really be a joint venture shared equally by Missouri St. and S. Illinois. These two teams are the fourth and fifth teams in the MVC. It just remains to be seen which will be which. Conveniently, they play each other on Tuesday. Unfortunately for these two teams, each follows this showdown with a game on the road against an MVC powerhouse. Missouri St. has to travel to N. Iowa while S. Illinois has to play at Creighton. If one of these teams could somehow go 2-0 this week, then that would likely be enough to wrap up a fourth bid for the MVC. If one of these teams goes 0-2 this week, then that would essentially eliminate that team from at-large consideration.

RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 33

Quality wins: S. Illinois, Bradley

Bad losses: none

2. Utah St.

After having Nevada penciled in as receiving the WAC’s automatic bid from day one, Utah St. has made things interesting. As it stands now, it’s about a 50/50 proposition for both teams. Utah St. beat Nevada on the road earlier in the season. If Nevada doesn’t win the WAC tournament, it will likely garner strong consideration for an at-large bid. Utah St., on the other hand, will likely pay the price for an underwhelming non-conference slate if it doesn't win the WAC's automatic bid. At the very least, Utah St. should plan on winning the regular season title. Anything less would likely mean Utah St’s impressive record is heading to the NIT.


RPI rating: 40
Pomeroy rating: 46

Quality wins: @ Nevada

Bad losses: @ Middle Tennessee, @ Utah, @ Fresno St., @ New Mexico St.

3. Vanderbilt

The Commodores are embarking on their annual late season collapse. As true as college basketball is played indoors, Vanderbilt chokes down the stretch. I like Vanderbilt. They have no business being competitive in college basketball yet they seem to do it very well. My first memory of Vanderbilt basketball was when Billy McCaffrey transferred from Duke. Given my extreme distaste for Duke, McCaffrey instantly became one of my favorite players. Vanderbilt reaped the benefits with an impressive run in the SEC. There are still remnants of my McCaffrey-born affinity for Vanderbilt even today. That probably explains why I’m always heartbroken to see everything begin to unravel as the SEC season roles along. Vandy is 1-5 in its last six games (all in the SEC). Its RPI has free-fallen to 64. With big games against Florida, Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee remaining, it doesn’t look good. Bummer.


RPI rating: 64
Pomeroy rating: 60

Quality wins: @ Georgetown, @ Kentucky

Bad losses: @ Georgia Tech, Georgia, S. Carolina

4. NC Wilmington

I feel for the Colonial Athletic Association. This conference has been better than anyone expected which is evidenced by pre-season favorite Old Dominion’s current fourth place standing. The CAA will probably not receive an at-large bid unless George Mason doesn't win the conference tournament. However, I think they deserve one. NC Wilmington, along with Hofstra, has solid computer ratings to go along with impressive overall records. While Hofstra may have the better argument come seasons end, NC Wilmington has a better RPI and a .5 game lead in the standings. While these teams are destined for NIT births, I hope the selection committee at least considers a second team from the CAA

RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 62

Quality wins: George Mason

Bad losses: College of Charleston, @ E. Carolina


5. Stanford

Stanford is going to test all of the conventional wisdom as to what constitutes a tournament-worthy resume. The Cardinal has some of the worst losses by any big-time college basketball team this season. They lost to UC-Davis, UC-Irvine, and Montana just to name a few. However, Stanford has somehow turned its season around with an 8-3 record in the Pac-10. Stanford hasn’t beaten a team with an RPI higher than 50. Stanford has lost to four teams with an RPI lower than 100. My guess is that the next two games will decide Stanford’s fate. First up is a conference showdown at California. The winner will be 9-3 in the conference which would be all but a lock for the tournament. Next-up is a season-making showdown at Gonzaga. If Stanford wins both games, you can punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament. An 0-2 showing would bring Stanford’s season record to 12-9 which might be too mediocre for a +.500 conference record to save.

RPI rating: 79
Pomeroy rating: 79

Quality wins: @ UC-Davis, UC-Irvine, @ Montana, Va. Tech (neutral site), @ USC

Bad losses: Washington, California

6. Miami (FL)

Miami’s season is divided into two distinct halves. The first half is very bad. The second half is very good. How good the second half is will decide if the Hurricanes sneak into the tournament. At 6-3 in the ACC, Miami stands in third place in one of the top conferences in America. Miami has beaten N. Carolina and Maryland to solidify itself as a team to be reckoned with this season. However, Miami’s next four games will make or break its season. A brutal stretch against NC State, N. Carolina, B. College and Duke looms over the next two weeks. A 2-2 stretch would almost certainly send Miami to the NCAA tournament. Even a 1-3 stretch would keep its hopes alive. However, 0-4 is a possibility which would ruin Miami’s season.

RPI rating: 61
Pomeroy rating: 47

Quality wins: Maryland, @ N. Carolina, @ FSU

Bad losses: none

7. Louisville

The Cardinals will probably not make the tournament. That said, they saved their season by holding off a game Notre Dame team this past weekend. Louisville moved to 3-6 in the Big East which leaves a lot to be desired. The Cardinals have seven conference games remaining. At the very least, they have to go 4-3. That would at least keep Louisville in the mix at 7-9. In the toughest conference in college basketball, 7-9 might be good enough to get into the tourney. My guess is that it wouldn’t be especially with the Big East already having nine possible births. Louisville would be the tenth. I don’t see it happening but an upset over Uconn or W. Virginia could make it happen.

RPI rating: 62
Pomeroy rating: 40

Quality wins: Akron, @ Miami (FL), Cincinnati

Bad losses: @ St. John’s

8. Temple

Temple blew its season this week. After a three game winning streak that featured victories over Maryland and Xavier, Temple was steamrolling towards an at-large bid in a weak A-10 conference. However, Temple forgot to show up against LaSalle. I would’ve had Temple in my projected field had they simply beaten a mediocre LaSalle team. Instead, they moved to 12-8 on the season. For some reason, I’m annoyed by Temple’s loss. I think it’s because Temple was such a long shot when they stood at 6-6 earlier in the season. They fought back from such a poor start to seemingly grab an at-large birth. I think Temple was proving that all things are possible. Unfortunately for them, LaSalle proved the same point.

RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 71

Quality wins: Miami (FL), Alabama, Xavier, Maryland

Bad losses: @ Auburn, @ Massachusetts, @ LaSalle

9. Hofstra

Hofstra’s non-conference resume is about as unimpressive as they come. However, Hofstra has come out on fire in the CAA. The Pride has beaten pre-season favorite Old Dominion twice and NC Wilmington. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Hofstra to win the CAA’s automatic bid. Even if they don’t, it’s possible for Hofstra to finish the season at 22-5 with a top 40 RPI. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t see the CAA getting two bids but Hofstra is at least worth a look.

RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 83

Quality wins: Old Dominion, @ Old Dominion, NC Wilmington

Bad losses: @Towson, @ Northeastern


10 FSU
11 USC
12 Nebraska
13 Akron
14 Alabama
15 Old Dominion
16 Bradley
17 Virginia
18 BYU

A look at the RPI

Lowest rated teams projected in the tournament (at-large)

#69 Xavier
#67 Arkansas
#59 Washington
#54 California
#53 Iowa St.
#51 Kansas
#49 Colorado
#44 UAB
#41 Maryland
#39 S. Illinois
#38 GW
#35 Cincinnati
#32 Kentucky
#31 Marquette
#30 Syracuse
#29 W. Virginia
#28 B. College
#27 Seton Hall




Highest rated teams projected out of the tournament (at-large)

#36 Missouri St.
#40 Utah St.
#43 NC Wilmington
#45 St. Joseph's
#46 Temple
#48 Old Dominion
#50 Alabama
#52 Bradley
#55 Virginia
#57 San Diego St.
#58 Hofstra
#60 BYU
#61 Miami (FL)
#62 Louisville
#63 Clemson
#64 Vanderbilt
#65 Virginia Commonwealth
#66 Akron




Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (5)
Duke
NC State
Boston College
N. Carolina
Maryland


SEC (5)
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas

Big East (9)
UCONN
Syracuse
Villanova
Pittsburgh
W. Virginia
Cincinnati
Marquette
Georgetown
Seton Hall

Big 12 (5)
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Colorado
Iowa St.

Big Ten (7)
Illinois
MSU
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Iowa

Pac-10 (4)
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
California

C-USA (2)
Memphis
UAB

A-10 (2)
Xavier
GW


MVC (4)
N. Iowa
Creighton
Wichita St.
S. Illinois


The Un-luck of the Irish

After discussing the incredible string of last second losses that Notre Dame has experienced this season, I didn’t realize that I would be revisiting the same topic just a week later. Unbelievably, Notre Dame lost another two games this week in which one was an overtime loss and the other was a one-point loss. Notre Dame has now lost its last nine games by a total of 30 points. Even more amazing, at the end of regulation of Notre Dame’s lost nine losses, it has been down by a combined 21 points. For its efforts, Notre Dame stands at 1-8 in Big East play and 10-10 on the season. Here is the most impressive unimpressive resume you’ll ever see:

Michigan 71 Notre Dame 67
Pittsburgh 100 Notre Dame 97 (2 OT)
DePaul 73 Notre Dame 67
Syracuse 88 Notre Dame 82
Marquette 67 Notre Dame 65
Georgetown 85 Notre Dame 82 (2 OT)
Villanova 82 Notre Dame 80
W. Virginia 71 Notre Dame 70
Louisville 89 Notre Dame 86 (OT)


LSU is the Anti-Notre Dame

LSU has proven that a string of close losses does not have to mean a lost season. All six of LSU’s losses have been by five points or less (1, 4, 3, 2, 1, and 5 respectively. While Notre Dame is toiling in oblivion with nine close losses, LSU has suffered a similar string of last second losses but has managed to go 7-1 in the SEC. LSU has virtually locked up an at-large bid despite the following heartbreaking strong of games:

Houston 84 LSU 83
N. Iowa 54 LSU 50
Cincinnati 75 LSU 72
Ohio St. 78 LSU 76
Uconn 67 LSU 66
Alabama 67 LSU 62