Here is my final projection for the NCAA Tournament. It seems pretty cut and dry to me but you never know what the Selection Committee is thinking.
1 ACC Duke
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Syracuse
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Iowa
6 Pac-10 Washington
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC San Diego St.
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial NC Wilmington
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Wisconsin-Mil.
17 MAAC Iona
18 Big Sky Montana
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Pacific
21 OVC Murray St.
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Bucknell
25 Southland Northwestern St.
26 Northeast Monmouth
27 AEC Albany
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large George Mason
33 At-Large George Washington
34 At-Large Villanova
35 At-Large Pittsburgh
36 At-Large W. Virginia
37 At-Large Cincinnati
38 At-Large Marquette
39 At-Large Georgetown
40 At-Large NC State
41 At-Large Boston College
42 At-Large N. Carolina
43 At-Large Indiana
44 At-Large UAB
45 At-Large MSU
46 At-Large NC Wilmington
47 At-Large Connecticut
48 At-Large Ohio St.
49 At-Large Wisconsin
50 At-Large Ohio St.
51 At-Large Kentucky
52 At-Large Tennessee
53 At-Large LSU
54 At-Large Alabama
55 At-Large Oklahoma
56 At-Large Texas
57 At-Large Texas A&M
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Arizona
60 At-Large UCLA
61 At-Large Bradley
62 At-Large Missouri St.
63 At-Large Wichita St.
64 At-Large California
65 At-Large N. Iowa
Last Five In:
Bradley
The Braves proved at the end of the season that they are one of the top two teams in the MVC. If the MVC gets multiple bids, Bradley has to be in the tourney.
George Mason
George Mason's RPI is too high to be left out of the tournament. George Mason won a share of the regular season CAA title. With an RPI of 26, this team should be in over a bevy of teams with RPI's nearly 20 spots worse.
Hofstra
Hofstra seams to be the odd team out on most projections simply because most people think the committee will not take three teams from the CAA. With an RPI of 30 and three victories over NC Wilmington and George Mason, this team should definitely be in.
Alabama
Alabama's record isn't all that impressive but the Tide finished 10-6 with victories over Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU. While 'Bama has a weak RPI, few teams have as many quality wins.
California
I don't think Cal should be in the tournament. Take a minute to check out its resume and you will find nothing even remotely close to impressive. Cal might just be the most fortunate college basketball team in the last decade. The Pac-10 was so bad this year that it had a worse RPI than the MVC.
Last Seven Out:
Creighton
The MVC won't get six bids. This is the odd team out.
Seton Hall
WAY too many losses to teams outside of the RPI top 90. It would be a travesty if a team with that many losses to BAD basketball teams makes the tournament.
Michigan
2-7 stretch to end the season with only three victories in the RPI top 50 is a weak resume. Throw in a plummeting RPI of 46 and this team should not make the tournament. Injuries aside, a tournament-worthy team would've at least had a pulse at the end of the season.
Air Force
Not a good year to be a pretty good at-large team.
Maryland
Too many losses and too few quality wins.
Florida St.
Same as Maryland only worse.
Colorado
If Colorado was in the Pac-10, it would be California and likely be headed to the tournament.
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (4)
Duke
NC State
Boston College
N. Carolina
SEC (6)
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
Alabama
Big East (8)
UCONN
Syracuse
Villanova
Pittsburgh
W. Virginia
Cincinnati
Marquette
Georgetown
Big 12 (4)
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Texas A&M
Big Ten (6)
Illinois
MSU
Indiana
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Iowa
Pac-10 (4)
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
California
C-USA (2)
Memphis
UAB
A-10 (2)
GW
Xavier
MVC (5)
N. Iowa
Wichita St.
S. Illinois
Missouri St.
Bradley
(3)
George Mason
NC Wilmington
Hofstra
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