Monday, November 06, 2006

Odds of Going Undefeated Week Eleven

Judging from the current BCS standings, it looks like Louisville is in the Championship game should it win out. The final big test for Louisville comes this Thursday at Rutgers. I know there’s a lot of hype for Rutgers right now but I don’t think it can keep up with Louisville’s offense. It kind of reminds me of when Air Force played BYU two weeks ago. Air Force had a potent ground game while BYU had a proficient aerial attack. The result was a blowout in favor of BYU. This game may not be as decisive as that but I expect Louisville to handle Rutgers. The Michigan/Ohio State rematch looks less likely now that there are a number of one-loss teams in the .800’s in the BCS standings. The good news for a Michigan/Ohio State rematch is that Texas is slowly creeping up in the standings. If the Michigan/Ohio State game is close, I’m guessing that the pollsters would rather see a Michigan/Ohio State rematch than a rematch of that one-sided Ohio State/Texas affair from earlier in the season.

Top 5
(Odds of going undefeated)

1 Boise State----67.50%
2 Ohio State----59.40%
3 Michigan------39.60%
4 Louisville------34.45%
5 Rutgers---------11.11%

Teams that dropped from last week’s list (along with pre-season rank in terms of odds): #1 West Virginia

Biggest Jump (percentage): Boise State +16.87 %

Current overall chance of undefeated team(s) (100%=1 undefeated team, 200%=2 undefeated teams etc.): 212.06%

Odds that current one-loss teams will win out:

(If Arkansas wins the SEC West, then Auburn’s odds of winning out double to roughly 50%.)

1 Texas-----------52.50%
2 Wisconsin-----49.50%
3 Notre Dame---47.03%
4 Cal--------------36.46%
5 W. Virginia----34.45%
6 Auburn---------25.00%
7 Florida----------24.75%
8 USC-------------16.67%
9 Arkansas--------2.08%
10 Wake Forest----1.48%

Three Most Likely BCS Championship Match-ups:

1) Michigan/Ohio State winner vs. Louisville

2) Michigan/Ohio State winner vs. Auburn/Florida winner (in SEC Championship game)

3) Michigan vs. Ohio State


Anonymous said...

Sort of off topic, but this debate about Louisville not getting a BCS Championship game because of their weak schedule is offly absurd. If they run the table, there should be absolutely no doubt they deserve to be in the title game. Their schedule was certainly no lollipop. Obviously they beat West Virginia who is without question a top 15 team. They are playing Rutgers tonight who may or may not be overrated, but still, is obviously a solid team. In addition they played Kentucky who is 3-3 in the almighty SEC and destroyed them. They crushed Miami, giving them by far their biggest loss, at Miami, even before the whole scandal. They also hammered Kansas St who is also a 500 team in the Big 12. Maybe it is not a difficult schedule, but any team that has had any legitimacy has not even deserved to be on the same field as them. Lastly, they lost their starting QB and running back and were/are still playing well. I would love to see UM play without Henne and Hart or OSU play without Smith and Pittman. I am not sure there is even a team that deserves to be in the BCS more than Louisville. Now, if they lose to Rutgers tonight, well, nevermind. But until then, go Louisville, and may their BCS game against OSU or UM be as exciting as I am hoping it will be.

Jake said...

Agreed. Until there's a playoff, you have to go with the two most deserving teams even if one of those teams isn't a traditional power. If Louisville finishes unbeaten, then it would be ridiculous to have anyone else in the Championship game. It's dumb that we even have to talk about this. Playoff anyone?

bojo said...

Everyone wants to see #1 OSU vs. #2 Michigan. But if you really really want a playoff you want either Michigan or OSU to drop a stunner this week and have that team beat the undefeated team the next week.

Who deserves the two spots in the BCS Title Game if that happens? There would be absolute chaos. Would the big wigs in Ann Arbor, Columbus, Auburn, LA, Berkley, Austin, Gainesville, and South Bend finally push for a playoff?

Jake said...

No question about it Bojo. Obviously, I don't want Michigan to have to be the team to sacrifice its season for the greater good but you are correct. The best, and only, way for there to be a playoff is for mass chaos. I root for it every year. The problem is that whenever everything does work out perfectly for the BCS (i.e. 1 vs. 2 only undefeated teams) the NCAA throws a parade and proclaims how great the BCS is. It only takes one perfect scenario to four mass chaos' to make the BCS happy. It sucks.

I believe it will happen some day. It has to. People can only do stupid stuff for so long before a revolution occurs.

Thanks for the comments.


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