Believe it or not, Michigan’s National Championship aspirations did not disappear as a result of being left out of the BCS Championship game. Granted, the odds of all the right things falling into place are minute at best. But, Michigan can still pull a Nebraska ’97 by dismantling USC in the Rose Bowl and then whining like babies in the post-game trophy ceremony. Hey, it worked for Scott Frost. I see no reason why it can’t work for Chad Henne too. Unless, of course, Henne just isn’t a natural born whiner. Since the AP decided to divorce its poll from inclusion in the BCS calculations, the AP hands out its own National Championship regardless of who wins the BCS Championship game.
An AP National Championship for Michigan is only a possibility because Michigan is only three points behind Florida for second place in the AP Poll. The first thing that needs to happen for this to even be a possibility is for Florida to upset Ohio State. Florida has to win a close game or it may look obvious that they are indeed the best team in the country. Second, Michigan needs to beat USC by at least two touchdowns. It would help if Louisville crushed Wake Forest since that might encourage a voter or two to vote Louisville number one instead of Florida. I highly doubt that any voter who had Michigan number two in the AP Poll would jump Florida over Michigan if Florida beats Ohio State by a razor thin margin and Michigan pummels USC. But, I do think that it is possible for a voter who had Florida #2 to put Louisville ahead of Florida if Florida beats Ohio State in an ugly game (not at all likely but possible). The people who think Michigan is better than Florida will probably think that regardless of the outcome of the BCS Championship game. The AP has been Michigan’s biggest supporter all season. When Michigan lost to Ohio State, the AP is the only poll that didn’t drop Michigan out of the #2 spot. There is no question that the possibility of Michigan jumping Florida exists.
Now, there is one thing that cannot be quantified that may propel Michigan into a split National Championship if Florida does manage to beat Ohio State. That thing is the irrational momentum created within a certain group of people for seemingly no reason at all. Remember, two weeks ago after Michigan lost to Ohio State, the consensus was that there was no way that Florida would ever jump Michigan. The consensus changed, not because of anything Florida did (remember, most people thought Florida was going to beat Arkansas since most people had Florida ranked ahead of Arkansas), but because people began to think about policy. People started to think about the ramifications of a rematch. People began to think about personal enjoyment of an Ohio State/Michigan Championship game. People began to listen to Urban Meyer whine about his team being left out. All of the factors that cannot be predicted are the factors that ended up moving Florida ahead of Michigan. Those are the exact same factors that would have to exist for Michigan to move ahead of Florida in the AP Poll. It would be foolhardy to think that those factors will not be present.
If Florida beats Ohio State, all of the rematch talk and the talk of Michigan already having its chance gets thrown out the window. Now, people will be forced to compare resumes. Michigan’s one loss will still be to Ohio State (which will certainly be ranked in the top four win or lose). Florida’s one loss will be to Auburn. Michigan will still have the better loss. Michigan will have beaten Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and USC who were all top ten teams for the majority of the year. People will start to reevaluate Florida’s schedule and realize that it wasn’t anywhere near as tough as people make it out to be (Western Carolina, UCF, Southern Mississippi, Florida State, Alabama, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and South Carolina are all average or terrible). The AP Poll will also see the opportunity to stick it to the BCS system that they deplore so much. If the AP is in favor of a playoff, the best way to influence policy is to vote another split National Championship. The way voters compared Michigan and Florida’s resumes was skewed so much by the personal distaste for seeing a rematch in the National Championship game that there really was no comparison. Wins by Florida and Michigan will force the voters to actually compare the teams rather than pick one based on whether there should be a rematch or not.
These are all factors that nobody can predict. Because there is no finality in college football (i.e. NFL, MLB), irrationality presides over everything unless one team makes it through the season undefeated. Nobody could predict Florida’s jump over Michigan. It looked irrational three weeks ago and it’s irrational right now. The sad truth of the polls is that voters probably don’t vote for the teams they think are the best. Voters are probably more influenced by the effect that their votes have. Most of the people that voted Florida number two probably think that Michigan is the better team.
As a result of the unquantifiable nature of the factors that would need to be present to give Michigan the AP National Championship, there really isn’t a whole lot to say about the topic. Looking at it now, some four weeks away from the BCS Championship game, it looks about as probable as—I don’t know—Florida jumping Michigan for second place in the BSC Standings.
Here is what needs to happen (at a minimum) for Michigan to earn the AP National Championship:
1). Florida needs to beat Ohio State. Florida cannot dominate Ohio State. It helps if the game is ugly. The voters need to come away thinking that Ohio State, Florida and Michigan are all in the same boat talent-wise.
2). Michigan needs to handle USC. Right now, even though it is only three points behind Florida in the AP Poll, Michigan is on the backburner. Michigan needs to give voters a reason to think about them again.
3). Michigan cannot lay low after beating USC. Nebraska did not lay low in 1997 and they were rewarded with a split National Championship. Michigan needs to force the issue like Nebraska. I would prefer it to not be as whiny as Nebraska but they need to take it to the airwaves. It not only worked for Nebraska but it worked for Urban Meyer and Florida this year.
4). Irrationality along the same lines that caused Florida to jump Michigan in the last BCS Standings. I predict that if the #1 and #2 occur, there is a decent chance that the AP Poll will move Michigan to number one. If Florida beats OSU by a touchdown and Michigan beats USC by a touchdown, then Florida is your consensus National Champion. All this is moot, though, if Florida doesn’t pull a monumental upset by beating Ohio State.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
The Worst Voters in America
I’ve written almost everything that I’d like to write on the BCS Championship hoopla. There is one thing, however, that I’d be remiss if I didn’t chime in on. It is a subject that has gone grossly underreported by the media. There have been a few articles by local newspapers but nothing substantial from the national media. I can’t believe I hadn’t thought of the possibility that voters would try to manipulate the results beyond simply voting for Florida or Michigan #2. It seems almost too obvious looking at it now but I have to admit I didn’t see it coming.
A handful of voters from the Harris Poll tried to dictate the final results of the poll by voting in a way that would have a greater impact than the average voter. Imagine, for a moment, if one voter ranked Michigan #25. That one voter would have single handily put Florida in the BCS Championship game. The media would have identified that voter and he/she would have been vilified. That sounds far-fetched but I don’t think it is as crazy as it sounds. Although no voter went to that extreme, a collection of voters (either working together or individually I’m not exactly sure) had a similar impact. Five voters from the Harris Poll either voted Florida #1 or Michigan #4. Two voters from the Harris Poll voted Florida #5. I tried to get a hold of the individual Harris Poll ballots from every week of the college football season but they were only available for the final December 3 poll. As a result, I don’t know whether these voters changed the way they voted for the final poll in an attempt to disproportionately influence the results or if they had been voting that way all along. If they tried to disproportionately influence the results they should have their voting privileges revoked for being incompetent and/or unprofessional. If they had simply voted the same way all year, they should have their voting privileges revoked for being embarrassingly inept at ranking college football teams.
I’ll let my readers decide for themselves if these guys should have the authority to influence the college football National Championship game:
Ray Melick (Birmingham News)
1). Ohio State
2). Florida
3). Louisville
4). Michigan
6). Wisconsin
10). Notre Dame
11). West Virginia
15). Rutgers
Melick has Louisville ranked ahead of Michigan. Louisville’s one loss was to #15 Rutgers. Michigan’s one loss was to #1 Ohio State. Louisville only beat one team that Melick ranked which was #11 West Virginia. Michigan, however, beat Melick’s #6 and #10 teams. Michigan also played a considerably more difficult schedule. If Wisconsin and Notre Dame are top ten teams in Melick’s mind and West Virginia is not, then it is borderline illogical to rank Louisville ahead of Michigan. Melick’s ballot had the same effect as two voters who voted Michigan and Florida #2 and #3 (regardless of order).
Tim Neverett (Colorado play-by-play announcer)
1). Ohio State
2). Florida
3). USC
4). Michigan
10). Notre Dame
11). Arkansas
13). Wisconsin
20). California
25). Oregon State
I’m 20/80 as to whether Neverett actually handed in the wrong ballot by mistake. I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he actually meant to submit the above rankings. It would not surprise me, though, if I came to light that Neverett made a mistake. According to Neverett, the three best teams that USC beat are #10 Notre Dame, #11 Arkansas and #20 California. The two best teams that Michigan beat according to Neverett are #10 Notre Dame and #13 Wisconsin. Based on that information alone, I can see how USC has the edge at this point of the comparison. However, there is the little tidbit called USC losing to Neverett’s #25 team (Oregon State) and a team that Neverett doesn’t have ranked at all (UCLA). Yes, that adds up to two losses. Michigan, on the other hand, had one loss and that was to Neverett’s number one team. Out of all of the Harris voters that sent in ridiculous ballots, I think Neverett is the most likely to have done it to disproportionately influence the results of the poll. His vote, like Melick’s, had the same impact as two voters who voted Michigan and Florida #2 and #3 (regardless of order).
Gene Ponti (Louisiana sports host)
1). Ohio State
2). Florida
3). LSU
4). Michigan
7). Notre Dame
8). Wisconsin
9). Auburn
15). Arkansas
19). Tennessee
Ponti is basically Melick and Neverett redux. All three think Florida is the #2 team and all three think Michigan is the #4 team. Interestingly enough, all three have different teams ranked #3. According to Ponti, Michigan beat the #7 (Notre Dame) and #8 (Wisconsin) teams in the country and lost to the #1 team. Also according to Ponti, LSU beat the #15 team (Arkansas) and #19 team (Tennessee) and lost to the #2 team (Florida) and the #9 team (Auburn). Yes, LSU’s losses add up to two. Ponti’s logic was just as irrational as Neverett’s. If Notre Dame and Wisconsin are top ten teams and Arkansas and Tennessee are not, then it is almost a fact (not quite but pretty darn close) that LSU could not reasonably be ranked higher than Michigan. Even if there are one or two people still unconvinced that LSU being rated higher than Michigan is even remotely acceptable, there is the fact that LSU beat Arkansas and Tennessee by five and six points respectively while Michigan beat Notre Dame and Wisconsin by 26 and 14 points respectively. Throw in the fact that Michigan only lost once to LSU’s two losses, and you have to think that Ponti tried to disproportionately influence the polls. Like Melick and Neverett, Ponti’s ballot had the same impact as two voters who voted Michigan and Florida #2 and #3 (regardless of order).
Jim Walden (Former Washington State football coach)
1). Florida
2). Ohio State
3). Michigan
10). Auburn
11). LSU
19). Arkansas
20). Tennessee
23). Texas
I would also put Walden in the group of people that likely tried to disproportionately influence the poll results. Walden had Ohio State number one in last week’s Harris Poll but oddly voted Florida number one in the final Harris Poll. Florida’s best win was over the #11 team (LSU) in Walden’s mind. Ohio State’s best win was over the #3 team (Michigan) in Walden’s mind. Ohio State’s best non-conference victory was over Texas which beat Walden’s #4 team (Oklahoma) 28-10. Florida didn’t play a team that finished with a winning record in its non-conference schedule. Then there is the little thing about Florida actually losing a game. In case Walden didn’t follow college football this year—Ohio State didn’t lose!
Paul Zeise (Pittsburgh Post Gazette)
1). Ohio State
2). Louisville
3). Florida
4). Michigan
5). Wisconsin
7). LSU
10). West Virginia
12). Arkansas
13). Auburn
14). Rutgers
15). Notre Dame
18). Tennessee
24). S. Florida
I don’t think Zeise tried to disproportionately influence the polls. His voting did not hurt Michigan in favor of Florida any more than if he simply voted them #2 and #3 respectively. I just think he doesn’t know the first thing about college football. First of all, he has Louisville ranked second. According to Zeise, Louisville beat the #10 (West Virginia) and #24 (South Florida) teams in the nation and lost to the #14 team (Rutgers). Michigan beat the #5 team (Wisconsin) and #15 team (Notre Dame) and lost to the #1 team. Florida beat the #7 team (LSU), #12 team (Arkansas), and #18 team (Tennessee) and lost to the #13 team (Auburn). Of the three teams, Louisville has the worst loss, the worst collection of wins, and by far the worst strength of schedule.
Zeise has already proved his incompetence as a voter by his fumbling of the Louisville-Florida-Michigan rankings but his rating of South Florida is the “icing on the cake”. I don’t see how anybody could logically rate South Florida ahead of Cincinnati. As far as I can tell, South Florida has the worst collection of wins of any team in D1-A college football. Among South Florida’s impressive string of victories are McNeese State, Florida International, Central Florida University, Connecticut, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and apparently the only required win for a team to be ranked, West Virginia.
South Florida did beat West Virginia. They are among the dozens of teams that pulled off upsets this season. So let’s see what the South Florida Bulls did that made Zeise rank them over the other teams that pulled off big upsets.
South Florida’s first opponent was a Division 1-AA opponent (McNeese State). I’m throwing that win out all together. South Florida’s remaining six wins were against teams with a combined record of 21-51. A college football Athletic Director could not put together a worse group of opponents if it tried to do so intentionally. Among South Florida’s opponents was one of only two winless Division 1-A teams in Florida International. South Florida performed marvelously against Florida International winning by one point at home. There are a number of teams that deserve to be ranked in South Florida’s place. I chose Cincinnati as an obvious choice simply because they both play in the same conference and the comparison isn’t even close. Cincinnati lost to Zeise’s #1, #2, #10, and #16 teams while South Florida lost to Zeise’s #2, #14, Kansas (a terrible team) and Cincinnati. It is laughable for anyone to rank South Florida ahead of Cincinnati.
Larry Keech (retired sportswriter from Greensboro, NC)
1). Ohio State
2). Boise State
3). Michigan
4). Wisconsin
5). Florida
8). Notre Dame
9). LSU
11). Auburn
18). Arkansas
19). Tennessee
Keech may have also tried to disproportionately influence the polls but I’m not 100% convinced since he has Boise State number two. It may just be that Keech doesn’t have a good handle on college football. Wisconsin hasn’t beaten a ranked team all year according to Keech. Florida, on the other hand, has beaten the #9, #18, and #19 teams. Iowa should secede from the Big Ten and join the WAC. At least they’ll know that Keech would vote them no lower than #2 every year.
Robert Lawless (Former Texas Tech President)
1). Ohio State
2). Michigan
3). Wisconsin
4). Louisville
5). Florida
7). LSU
10). West Virginia
11). Rutgers
13). Notre Dame
15). Auburn
22). Arkansas
23). Tennessee
Lawless is Keech with a few adjustments. I would not be surprised to find out that both were graduates of the University of Wisconsin. Of the seven voters that I’ve written about in this post, Lawless actually had the biggest affect of them all. His ballot had the same impact as three voters who voted Michigan and Florida #2 and #3 (regardless of order).
The story here isn’t that Michigan or Florida got screwed by the voters. Thankfully, these voters didn't end up affecting the final order. There were malcontents on both sides that kind of offset each other. The story probably has more to do with the fate of college football’s National Championship being in the hands of people that can influence the results by strategically arranging their ballots. What if Michigan and Florida finished within three points of each other? Melick, Neverett, Ponti, and Walden would have essentially chosen the second team in the BCS Championship game. How is Jim Tressel’s decision to not vote any worse than the decision of four people to disproportionately influence the final poll? At least Tressel didn’t influence the poll at all. He let the rest of the voters make the decision. Melick, Neverett, Ponti and Walden tried to make the decision for the other voters.
I can’t see how someone could vote as neglectfully as the above voters did and keep their position as a voter in the Harris Poll. If two voters had voted Michigan #2 and Florida #25, and all else remained the same, Michigan would be going to the BCS Championship game and vice versa. Judging from the ballots that these voters turned in, that might not be so far-fetched. What is keeping a voter from going to that extreme? These seven voters turned in terribly misguided ballots and nobody has said a thing. What good is a poll if there is nothing in place to keep individual voters from manipulating the results?
A handful of voters from the Harris Poll tried to dictate the final results of the poll by voting in a way that would have a greater impact than the average voter. Imagine, for a moment, if one voter ranked Michigan #25. That one voter would have single handily put Florida in the BCS Championship game. The media would have identified that voter and he/she would have been vilified. That sounds far-fetched but I don’t think it is as crazy as it sounds. Although no voter went to that extreme, a collection of voters (either working together or individually I’m not exactly sure) had a similar impact. Five voters from the Harris Poll either voted Florida #1 or Michigan #4. Two voters from the Harris Poll voted Florida #5. I tried to get a hold of the individual Harris Poll ballots from every week of the college football season but they were only available for the final December 3 poll. As a result, I don’t know whether these voters changed the way they voted for the final poll in an attempt to disproportionately influence the results or if they had been voting that way all along. If they tried to disproportionately influence the results they should have their voting privileges revoked for being incompetent and/or unprofessional. If they had simply voted the same way all year, they should have their voting privileges revoked for being embarrassingly inept at ranking college football teams.
I’ll let my readers decide for themselves if these guys should have the authority to influence the college football National Championship game:
Ray Melick (Birmingham News)
1). Ohio State
2). Florida
3). Louisville
4). Michigan
6). Wisconsin
10). Notre Dame
11). West Virginia
15). Rutgers
Melick has Louisville ranked ahead of Michigan. Louisville’s one loss was to #15 Rutgers. Michigan’s one loss was to #1 Ohio State. Louisville only beat one team that Melick ranked which was #11 West Virginia. Michigan, however, beat Melick’s #6 and #10 teams. Michigan also played a considerably more difficult schedule. If Wisconsin and Notre Dame are top ten teams in Melick’s mind and West Virginia is not, then it is borderline illogical to rank Louisville ahead of Michigan. Melick’s ballot had the same effect as two voters who voted Michigan and Florida #2 and #3 (regardless of order).
Tim Neverett (Colorado play-by-play announcer)
1). Ohio State
2). Florida
3). USC
4). Michigan
10). Notre Dame
11). Arkansas
13). Wisconsin
20). California
25). Oregon State
I’m 20/80 as to whether Neverett actually handed in the wrong ballot by mistake. I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he actually meant to submit the above rankings. It would not surprise me, though, if I came to light that Neverett made a mistake. According to Neverett, the three best teams that USC beat are #10 Notre Dame, #11 Arkansas and #20 California. The two best teams that Michigan beat according to Neverett are #10 Notre Dame and #13 Wisconsin. Based on that information alone, I can see how USC has the edge at this point of the comparison. However, there is the little tidbit called USC losing to Neverett’s #25 team (Oregon State) and a team that Neverett doesn’t have ranked at all (UCLA). Yes, that adds up to two losses. Michigan, on the other hand, had one loss and that was to Neverett’s number one team. Out of all of the Harris voters that sent in ridiculous ballots, I think Neverett is the most likely to have done it to disproportionately influence the results of the poll. His vote, like Melick’s, had the same impact as two voters who voted Michigan and Florida #2 and #3 (regardless of order).
Gene Ponti (Louisiana sports host)
1). Ohio State
2). Florida
3). LSU
4). Michigan
7). Notre Dame
8). Wisconsin
9). Auburn
15). Arkansas
19). Tennessee
Ponti is basically Melick and Neverett redux. All three think Florida is the #2 team and all three think Michigan is the #4 team. Interestingly enough, all three have different teams ranked #3. According to Ponti, Michigan beat the #7 (Notre Dame) and #8 (Wisconsin) teams in the country and lost to the #1 team. Also according to Ponti, LSU beat the #15 team (Arkansas) and #19 team (Tennessee) and lost to the #2 team (Florida) and the #9 team (Auburn). Yes, LSU’s losses add up to two. Ponti’s logic was just as irrational as Neverett’s. If Notre Dame and Wisconsin are top ten teams and Arkansas and Tennessee are not, then it is almost a fact (not quite but pretty darn close) that LSU could not reasonably be ranked higher than Michigan. Even if there are one or two people still unconvinced that LSU being rated higher than Michigan is even remotely acceptable, there is the fact that LSU beat Arkansas and Tennessee by five and six points respectively while Michigan beat Notre Dame and Wisconsin by 26 and 14 points respectively. Throw in the fact that Michigan only lost once to LSU’s two losses, and you have to think that Ponti tried to disproportionately influence the polls. Like Melick and Neverett, Ponti’s ballot had the same impact as two voters who voted Michigan and Florida #2 and #3 (regardless of order).
Jim Walden (Former Washington State football coach)
1). Florida
2). Ohio State
3). Michigan
10). Auburn
11). LSU
19). Arkansas
20). Tennessee
23). Texas
I would also put Walden in the group of people that likely tried to disproportionately influence the poll results. Walden had Ohio State number one in last week’s Harris Poll but oddly voted Florida number one in the final Harris Poll. Florida’s best win was over the #11 team (LSU) in Walden’s mind. Ohio State’s best win was over the #3 team (Michigan) in Walden’s mind. Ohio State’s best non-conference victory was over Texas which beat Walden’s #4 team (Oklahoma) 28-10. Florida didn’t play a team that finished with a winning record in its non-conference schedule. Then there is the little thing about Florida actually losing a game. In case Walden didn’t follow college football this year—Ohio State didn’t lose!
Paul Zeise (Pittsburgh Post Gazette)
1). Ohio State
2). Louisville
3). Florida
4). Michigan
5). Wisconsin
7). LSU
10). West Virginia
12). Arkansas
13). Auburn
14). Rutgers
15). Notre Dame
18). Tennessee
24). S. Florida
I don’t think Zeise tried to disproportionately influence the polls. His voting did not hurt Michigan in favor of Florida any more than if he simply voted them #2 and #3 respectively. I just think he doesn’t know the first thing about college football. First of all, he has Louisville ranked second. According to Zeise, Louisville beat the #10 (West Virginia) and #24 (South Florida) teams in the nation and lost to the #14 team (Rutgers). Michigan beat the #5 team (Wisconsin) and #15 team (Notre Dame) and lost to the #1 team. Florida beat the #7 team (LSU), #12 team (Arkansas), and #18 team (Tennessee) and lost to the #13 team (Auburn). Of the three teams, Louisville has the worst loss, the worst collection of wins, and by far the worst strength of schedule.
Zeise has already proved his incompetence as a voter by his fumbling of the Louisville-Florida-Michigan rankings but his rating of South Florida is the “icing on the cake”. I don’t see how anybody could logically rate South Florida ahead of Cincinnati. As far as I can tell, South Florida has the worst collection of wins of any team in D1-A college football. Among South Florida’s impressive string of victories are McNeese State, Florida International, Central Florida University, Connecticut, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and apparently the only required win for a team to be ranked, West Virginia.
South Florida did beat West Virginia. They are among the dozens of teams that pulled off upsets this season. So let’s see what the South Florida Bulls did that made Zeise rank them over the other teams that pulled off big upsets.
South Florida’s first opponent was a Division 1-AA opponent (McNeese State). I’m throwing that win out all together. South Florida’s remaining six wins were against teams with a combined record of 21-51. A college football Athletic Director could not put together a worse group of opponents if it tried to do so intentionally. Among South Florida’s opponents was one of only two winless Division 1-A teams in Florida International. South Florida performed marvelously against Florida International winning by one point at home. There are a number of teams that deserve to be ranked in South Florida’s place. I chose Cincinnati as an obvious choice simply because they both play in the same conference and the comparison isn’t even close. Cincinnati lost to Zeise’s #1, #2, #10, and #16 teams while South Florida lost to Zeise’s #2, #14, Kansas (a terrible team) and Cincinnati. It is laughable for anyone to rank South Florida ahead of Cincinnati.
Larry Keech (retired sportswriter from Greensboro, NC)
1). Ohio State
2). Boise State
3). Michigan
4). Wisconsin
5). Florida
8). Notre Dame
9). LSU
11). Auburn
18). Arkansas
19). Tennessee
Keech may have also tried to disproportionately influence the polls but I’m not 100% convinced since he has Boise State number two. It may just be that Keech doesn’t have a good handle on college football. Wisconsin hasn’t beaten a ranked team all year according to Keech. Florida, on the other hand, has beaten the #9, #18, and #19 teams. Iowa should secede from the Big Ten and join the WAC. At least they’ll know that Keech would vote them no lower than #2 every year.
Robert Lawless (Former Texas Tech President)
1). Ohio State
2). Michigan
3). Wisconsin
4). Louisville
5). Florida
7). LSU
10). West Virginia
11). Rutgers
13). Notre Dame
15). Auburn
22). Arkansas
23). Tennessee
Lawless is Keech with a few adjustments. I would not be surprised to find out that both were graduates of the University of Wisconsin. Of the seven voters that I’ve written about in this post, Lawless actually had the biggest affect of them all. His ballot had the same impact as three voters who voted Michigan and Florida #2 and #3 (regardless of order).
The story here isn’t that Michigan or Florida got screwed by the voters. Thankfully, these voters didn't end up affecting the final order. There were malcontents on both sides that kind of offset each other. The story probably has more to do with the fate of college football’s National Championship being in the hands of people that can influence the results by strategically arranging their ballots. What if Michigan and Florida finished within three points of each other? Melick, Neverett, Ponti, and Walden would have essentially chosen the second team in the BCS Championship game. How is Jim Tressel’s decision to not vote any worse than the decision of four people to disproportionately influence the final poll? At least Tressel didn’t influence the poll at all. He let the rest of the voters make the decision. Melick, Neverett, Ponti and Walden tried to make the decision for the other voters.
I can’t see how someone could vote as neglectfully as the above voters did and keep their position as a voter in the Harris Poll. If two voters had voted Michigan #2 and Florida #25, and all else remained the same, Michigan would be going to the BCS Championship game and vice versa. Judging from the ballots that these voters turned in, that might not be so far-fetched. What is keeping a voter from going to that extreme? These seven voters turned in terribly misguided ballots and nobody has said a thing. What good is a poll if there is nothing in place to keep individual voters from manipulating the results?
Monday, December 04, 2006
Another unplayed playoff
Now that the BCS hasn’t worked for the fifth time in the last seven years, let’s take a look at what could have been if Division 1-A college football wasn’t the only sport in the world that doesn’t have a playoff to decide its champion. There are countless playoff systems that could be used but I’ll go with one that I find intriguing. I’ll go with 10 teams.
Rules:
All six conference champions make the playoffs.
Four at-large teams are selected by a committee of non-idiots.
Notre Dame has no special considerations.
The ten teams are seeded in order by a committee of non-idiots.
Play-in games and first round games are played at the higher seed’s stadium.
If a team goes undefeated, in any conference, it must be selected.
Based on the above rules, here is how the playoff would have looked this year:
The 10 teams seeded in order:
1). Ohio State
2). Michigan
3). Florida
4). LSU
5) USC
6) Louisville
7) Oklahoma
8) Wake Forest
9) Wisconsin
10) Boise State
Play in games: (Projected winners in bold)
10 Boise State vs. 7 Oklahoma @ Norman, OK
9 Wisconsin vs. 8 Wake Forest @ Wake Forest, NC
Final Eight
9 Wisconsin vs. 1 Ohio State @ Columbus, OH
5 USC vs. 4 LSU @ Baton Rouge, LA
7 Oklahoma vs. 2 Michigan @ Ann Arbor, MI
6 Louisville vs. 3 Florida @ Gainesville FL
Final Four
5 USC vs. 1 Ohio State
3 Florida vs. 2 Michigan
National Championship game
2 Michigan vs. 1 Ohio State
Any team that can win three games in a row against competition like that deserves to be the National Champion. The NCAA college basketball tournament has so many teams and so many chances for upsets that the best teams often don’t even make it to the end. A ten-team college football playoff would guarantee that every match-up features two elite teams. In this scenario, Ohio State would have to beat Wisconsin, USC and Michigan to win the National Championship. Michigan would have to beat Oklahoma, Florida, and Ohio State in three consecutive weeks. Florida would have to beat Louisville, Michigan, and Ohio State. USC would have to beat LSU, Ohio State and Michigan. Any team that can win all three games in a row like that would clearly be the best team in the country. Instead, we get to see Florida get pasted by Ohio State.
Bowl Bliss
I would like to take a minute to look back at week seven of the college football season because that had some of the worst match-ups of any week in memory. Here are some of the monumental battles from that day.....
Rice vs. Troy
San Jose State vs. New Mexico
South Florida vs. East Carolina
Utah vs. Tulsa
Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee State
N. Illinois vs. TCU
Oh wait, my bad. Those aren't games from week seven, those are BOWL GAMES! Now I can see why the NCAA doesn't want to mess with the bowl system. With marquee games like that, who would even want to watch a playoff? 99% of college football fans (yes, people that actually like and follow college football) could not name a single player from any of those teams if I didn't allow anyone to say Garrett Wolfe. I can't wait for the bowl feast to begin!
If the above games leave you craving for more, don't worry, you have the following games to curb your hunger:
Rutgers vs. Kansas St.
Clemson vs. Kentucky
Oregon St. vs. Missouri
Houston vs. South Carolina
Miami (FL) vs. Nevada
Western Michigan vs. Cincinnati
Ohio vs. Southern Mississippi
Rules:
All six conference champions make the playoffs.
Four at-large teams are selected by a committee of non-idiots.
Notre Dame has no special considerations.
The ten teams are seeded in order by a committee of non-idiots.
Play-in games and first round games are played at the higher seed’s stadium.
If a team goes undefeated, in any conference, it must be selected.
Based on the above rules, here is how the playoff would have looked this year:
The 10 teams seeded in order:
1). Ohio State
2). Michigan
3). Florida
4). LSU
5) USC
6) Louisville
7) Oklahoma
8) Wake Forest
9) Wisconsin
10) Boise State
Play in games: (Projected winners in bold)
10 Boise State vs. 7 Oklahoma @ Norman, OK
9 Wisconsin vs. 8 Wake Forest @ Wake Forest, NC
Final Eight
9 Wisconsin vs. 1 Ohio State @ Columbus, OH
5 USC vs. 4 LSU @ Baton Rouge, LA
7 Oklahoma vs. 2 Michigan @ Ann Arbor, MI
6 Louisville vs. 3 Florida @ Gainesville FL
Final Four
5 USC vs. 1 Ohio State
3 Florida vs. 2 Michigan
National Championship game
2 Michigan vs. 1 Ohio State
Any team that can win three games in a row against competition like that deserves to be the National Champion. The NCAA college basketball tournament has so many teams and so many chances for upsets that the best teams often don’t even make it to the end. A ten-team college football playoff would guarantee that every match-up features two elite teams. In this scenario, Ohio State would have to beat Wisconsin, USC and Michigan to win the National Championship. Michigan would have to beat Oklahoma, Florida, and Ohio State in three consecutive weeks. Florida would have to beat Louisville, Michigan, and Ohio State. USC would have to beat LSU, Ohio State and Michigan. Any team that can win all three games in a row like that would clearly be the best team in the country. Instead, we get to see Florida get pasted by Ohio State.
Bowl Bliss
I would like to take a minute to look back at week seven of the college football season because that had some of the worst match-ups of any week in memory. Here are some of the monumental battles from that day.....
Rice vs. Troy
San Jose State vs. New Mexico
South Florida vs. East Carolina
Utah vs. Tulsa
Central Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee State
N. Illinois vs. TCU
Oh wait, my bad. Those aren't games from week seven, those are BOWL GAMES! Now I can see why the NCAA doesn't want to mess with the bowl system. With marquee games like that, who would even want to watch a playoff? 99% of college football fans (yes, people that actually like and follow college football) could not name a single player from any of those teams if I didn't allow anyone to say Garrett Wolfe. I can't wait for the bowl feast to begin!
If the above games leave you craving for more, don't worry, you have the following games to curb your hunger:
Rutgers vs. Kansas St.
Clemson vs. Kentucky
Oregon St. vs. Missouri
Houston vs. South Carolina
Miami (FL) vs. Nevada
Western Michigan vs. Cincinnati
Ohio vs. Southern Mississippi
Sunday, December 03, 2006
Rematch 201
Wow. I didn’t see that coming. I give all the credit in the world to UCLA for sticking it to the Trojans. I don’t necessarily think that there are any worthy contenders for Ohio State in the BCS Championship game but I am glad UCLA won because the hype-train that came out of nowhere for USC was ridiculous. Remember, after Michigan lost by only three points at Ohio State, Michigan did not drop in the BCS standings. Michigan was still second in the AP poll and a very close third just behind USC in both the Harris and Coach’s poll. It wasn’t until USC went out and beat an overrated Notre Dame team (Michigan had already beaten ND by 26 points on the road) that all the “love” for USC came to the forefront. USC was ranked ahead of ND in the polls. USC was playing at home. What did everyone think was going to happen in that game? Obviously everyone already thought that USC would beat Notre Dame at home or the Trojans wouldn’t have been ranked higher than the Irish to begin with. Michigan had already killed Notre Dame so seeing USC beat Notre Dame shouldn’t have provided any additional information that people didn’t already know. Yet, USC became the “it” team simply because it did what it was supposed to do. Now, it is possible that USC would have stayed ahead of Michigan even if nobody in either poll switched their vote because of the computers. I’m not sure how that would have turned out. Thanks to UCLA, we don’t have to talk about the Trojans anymore.
One thing I can’t stand in all of the BCS talk is when analysts try to use selective reasoning to make their case for one team over another. For instance, ESPN’s Lou Holtz and Mark May pick between the accomplishments of two teams without knowing the identity of either team. The information they choose to scrutinize these teams on generally includes strength of schedule and record. Never mind how the teams performed in each game or who the teams lost to. They treat every win the same and every loss the same. That would make sense if each team played more than 11% of the teams in college football. When the schedule only features a small percentage of the teams in the country, victory margin plays a vital role in the ability to adequately judge a team’s resume.
That brings me to something that Gary Danielson did during the SEC Championship game. He ranked the wins in order of perceived value for both Michigan and Florida. I actually liked the concept but at no point did Danielson include the scores for any of the games. Apparently Florida’s one-point win over South Carolina that featured three blocked SC kicks is as impressive as Michigan’s domination of Minnesota. Likewise, Florida’s ten point loss to Auburn is as impressive as Michigan’s three point loss at Ohio State. At least that’s how Danielson made it appear.
Here is what Danielson showed on CBS (or a similar version):
--------------Michigan-------------------Florida
Losses:----1)@ Ohio State --------------1)@Auburn
Wins:------1) @ Notre Dame------------1)LSU
------------2) ----Wisconsin--------------2)Arkansas
------------3)-@ Penn State--------------3)@ Tennessee
------------4) -----Iowa-------------------4) @ Georgia
------------5)@ Minnesota---------------5) Kentucky
------------6) Michigan State------------6) Alabama
------------7)----Vanderbilt--------------7) Florida State
------------8)----Central Michigan------8) S. Carolina
------------9)@ Indiana-------------------9) Southern Mississippi
-----------10)---Northwestern------------10) UCF
-----------11)---Ball St.---------------------11) Western Carolina
--------------Michigan------------------------------------Florida
Losses:-----1) @ Ohio State-----------39-42-------1)@Auburn-------------------17-27
Wins:-----1) @ Notre Dame-----------47-21-------1)LSU-----------------------23-10
------------2) ----Wisconsin-------------27-13------2)Arkansas------------------38-28
------------3)-@ Penn State-------------17-10------3)@ Tennessee--------------21-20
------------4) -----Iowa-------------------20-6------4) @ Georgia----------------21-14
------------5)@ Minnesota--------------28-14------5) Kentucky------------------26-7
------------6) Michigan State--------31-13--------- 6) Alabama------------------28-13
------------7)----Vanderbilt-------------27-7--------7) @ Florida State--------------21-14
------------8)----Central Michigan—--41-17--------8) S. Carolina---------------17-16
------------9)@ Indiana-----------------34-3--------9) @ Vanderbilt----------------25-19
-----------10)---Northwestern----------17-3--------10)Southern Mississippi-----34-7
-----------11)---Ball St.-----------------34-26-------11) UCF------------------------42-0
----------------------------------------------------------12) Western Carolina---------62-0
A side by side comparison of the scores of each game reveals a lot more than simply looking at wins and losses. Since the schedules are ranked based on perceived value, I think it’s at least somewhat informative to compare the results of each of the values. Michigan, by an overwhelming margin, took care of its schedule more impressively than Florida did. Florida beat Tennessee and South Carolina by one point. It beat Vanderbilt by six points. It beat Florida State and Georgia by seven points. Michigan had no victories by less than seven points. South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Florida State, and Georgia had a combined record of 25-22. Florida won those four games by a total of 21 points. Florida struggled mightily against the average teams on its schedule. This is not meant to be an attempt to further Michigan’s case for the BCS Championship game. The main objective of this is to put a halt to the pro-Florida bandwagon that is surely going to flare up as powerful as the USC bandwagon that came out of nowhere last week. Florida was anything but impressive in its victories this season. A 12-1 record is a fine accomplishment. But, I don’t want to hear how Florida’s schedule was so much harder than Michigan’s. That is simply not true. What is true, though, is that Florida was far less impressive than Michigan.
Debunking Florida’s Supposed Advantages
I know it’s cliché to say that the SEC is the toughest conference in America. In many years, that is true. This year, it is not true. Florida, LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn are all very good teams. Tennessee was OK. Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, and Georgia are not even close to good teams. Georgia lost to Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
The whole argument that a team that doesn’t win its conference championship should not be eligible for the BCS Championship is only an argument you would hear in D-1A college football. I guess the Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, and St. Louis Cardinals should be presented with championship rings for the 1997, 2002, 2003 and 2004 World Series respectively because they lost in the Series to teams that didn’t even win their own division. Similarly, I suppose the New York Giants should be awarded de facto Super Bowl rings for their loss to the non-division winning Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV. All of the “Michigan didn’t even win its conference” talk is just a poorly designed ploy by people who don’t want to see a rematch for personal enjoyment. Is it not possible for the two best teams in college football to come from the same conference? I don’t think there is anyone who would actually argue that it’s not possible. Isn’t it also true that the BCS is designed to pit the two best teams against each other? I don’t think there is anyone who would argue against that either. So, all of the “Michigan didn’t win its own conference” arguments should either be prefaced with a “you are about to hear unsound reasoning” disclaimer, or thrown out all together.
The “Michigan already had its chance” argument is also devoid of sound reasoning. If people don’t want to see a rematch because they don’t follow the Big Ten and think it would be boring, then that’s a reasonable opinion. But, to say that Michigan somehow lost its chance at a spot in the BCS Championship game by losing a regular season game on the road is ignoring the reality of sports. Name a sport that says a regular season game on the road constitutes a “true National Championship game”. Has there ever been a Super Bowl or BCS Championship game that wasn’t played at a supposed “neutral site”? Of course there hasn’t. There is a reason for that. Home games give an edge to the home team. There isn’t supposed to be an edge in a National Championship game. Name a sport that doesn’t permit rematches in its championship games. The New England Patriots won Super Bowl XXXIV over the St. Louis Rams. According to a number of college football analysts/fans, the Patriots should not have been able to win the Super Bowl that year since they lost to the Rams in the regular season. Only in college football do bogus reasons masquerade as sound reasoning.
Another reason for Florida's inclusion being bantered around is the fact that it had to play a conference championship game. For the longest time, I have not been able to figure out whether it is incredibly stupid, or extremely brave to play a conference championship game. No conference has to play a conference championship. A conference championship makes it increasingly harder to put a team in the BCS Championship. Many conferences have lost representatives in the BCS Championship because of their conference championship game. The tradeoff is a big payday for having a “championship” game of its own. My opinion is that it’s not worth the tradeoff. I know a lot of people complain that every conference should have a conference championship. Most of the people that make those complaints are fans of a team that plays in a conference that has a championship game. The “conference championship” is just a creation by greedy Presidents and AD’s to bring in more money. I don’t know how they parlayed their greed into a knock on other conferences that don’t choose to follow suit. If I were the Big Ten or Pac-10 commissioner, I would be laughing at the other conferences for being stupid enough to handicap their teams’ chances of winning a National Championship. So, I guess I can’t really fault Michigan because the Big Ten neglects to play a championship game when there are no rules mandating it. In fact, the conference championship seems unnecessary since a team plays almost every team in the conference during the regular season anyway. After talking (or typing) this out, I don’t see the fact that the SEC plays a championship game as a compelling argument against Michigan. (An interesting side note--for years and years there was no such thing as a “National Championship game”. In fact, the first true National Championship game didn’t take place until 1995. Yet, the first “Conference Championship game” was the SEC Championship in 1992. The conferences got their act together before the NCAA did. That should shed some light on the obstacles fans have to deal with for a playoff to become a reality. I also find it interesting that many Presidents and AD’s have argued that there doesn’t need to be a playoff because the regular season is the playoff. If that is the case, then why do conferences need a conference championship game to begin with?)
Scott Frost is NOT in the House
Since I am a Michigan fan and I have spent the majority of this post rejecting reasons why Florida should be in the BCS Championship game, it probably seems as though I am pulling a Scott Frost whine-job for Michigan. While it might look that way, my intention is to give an unbiased as possible look at the situation. I am not rejecting Florida’s inclusion in the BCS Championship game, rather I’m rejecting certain reasons that are being used to support Florida’s claim. If people think Florida would beat Michigan head to head, then by all means, vote them in. Most of the arguments for Florida are bunk. Michigan has the edge in almost every comparison. It has the better computer ratings (at least as of now). It is ranked higher in the polls. It has the best loss. It has the most impressive margin of victories. In fact, most analysts/fans openly admit that Michigan would probably beat Florida head to head. I just don’t think there is a compelling reason for Florida other than for variety. Based on the “rules” of the BCS, variety has nothing to do with it so that is certainly not a compelling argument.
Should Florida be able play for the National Championship? Definitely. I feel bad for whichever team gets left out. Unfortunately, there is an arcane system in place that prevents all but two deserving teams from playing for a championship. Since there is only one spot open, I can only compare the resumes of the two teams. Based on what I have seen, I would expect Michigan to beat Florida. I would expect both to lose to Ohio State.
People have simply forgotten how good Michigan was this year
I don’t necessarily take pride in the fact that Michigan could lose to Ohio State twice in the same season. That makes me nauseous just thinking about it. But, Ohio State needs to play somebody. That somebody should be the most qualified team. Had Michigan’s season not ended two weeks ago, this wouldn’t even be an argument. In fact, had Michigan’s season not ended two weeks ago, there might not have even been an argument for USC over Michigan. A lot of opinions have changed over the last two weeks since Michigan last played. Voters obviously forgot how good Michigan was because Michigan never dropped in the polls after wins over Ball St., Indiana and Northwestern. Yet, it dropped after not playing at all. Sure, USC beat Notre Dame but who actually thought Notre Dame would win that game?
The Verdict
The interesting, and often maddening, thing about college football is that public opinion is swayed so much by so little. There is no doubt in my mind that the fact that Florida was playing after USC caused some voters to go with the “win and in” mentality. There is also no doubt in my mind that, like the whole USC situation, the idea of “Michigan already having its chance” will start to creep into the minds of voters who had previously dismissed that notion. It is for that reason that I cannot say for certain how the human polls will turn out. Going into this week, Michigan’s lead over Florida in the polls was fairly substantial. I don’t have the breakdown of all the voters but it looks like the vast majority of pollsters had Michigan ranked ahead of Florida. It would take a sizeable amount of pollsters to change their minds for Florida to move up to #2 in the BCS Standings. If Florida jumps Michigan in even one poll, there is a very good chance that the Gators will be headed to Tempe to play Ohio State. Florida is already ahead of Michigan in two of the computers. Judging from the way USC leaped over Michigan in the computers after beating Notre Dame, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Florida do the same. So, the fate of both Michigan and Florida are in the hands of the voters. If even one poll has Florida second, then Florida will probably go. If neither poll has Florida second, then the rematch is on.
I will be fine with whatever the outcome is. As I said earlier, I am not thrilled with the idea of Michigan losing to Ohio State again. I don’t think there are any teams that are at the same level as Ohio State. My only complaint is with shady arguments. If you want Florida in the BCS Championship game because that game would interest you more, then just admit it. If you simply think Florida would beat Michigan, then that’s fine too. Just avoid any of the faux arguments that I mentioned earlier. May the better team lose to Ohio State.
A couple footnotes:
Does helmet to helmet only exist in the Midwest? Did anyone see USC’s Rey Maualuga pull a Shawn Crable on UCLA’s Patrick Cowan? That was ridiculous. It was the exact same play. You could even hear the helmet to helmet on the replay. The announcers were lauding it as if it were the best hit ever. Meanwhile, Brent Musberger and Bob Davie condemned Crable’s hit as an act of stupidity. It’s amazing how perspective’s change based on whether a ref misses a call or not.
Lou Ferrigno’s son plays for USC. I think the fact that his name is Lou Ferrigno Jr. gave it away.
Did anyone see UCLA’s Bruce Davis rip into Lee Corso and Kirk Herbstreit after the game? I love it when athletes from underachieving teams rip into people for picking against them. That is a first cousin of the “nobody thought we would win” proclamation. Maybe if UCLA didn’t lose to Washington State and WASHINGTON this year, people would have given the Bruins a chance. I know it was an emotional victory and all but I prefer to see humility whenever possible.
Percy Harvin is awesome.
Why do sideline reporters ask coaches if they are interested in other coaching jobs? I know their job is to ask juicy questions but at least ask something that has better than a 0% chance of being answered. I have never, ever seen a coach answer something other than “I am happy where I’m at” or “Now is not the time to discuss that”. All it does is annoy the coach and the viewer.
Did anyone hear Lloyd Carr’s appearance on Sportscenter late Saturday night in his supposed attempt to sway voters to pick Michigan? ESPN probably had in mind a heated debate between Carr and Urban Meyer but if they knew anything about Carr, they would have known that wasn’t going to happen. If Carr won’t reveal his true feelings when his response may help Michigan’s chances at playing in the BCS Championship game, then you know he won’t be revealing any inside info during his mid-season weekly press conferences anytime soon. It ain’t called The Fort for nothing.
One thing I can’t stand in all of the BCS talk is when analysts try to use selective reasoning to make their case for one team over another. For instance, ESPN’s Lou Holtz and Mark May pick between the accomplishments of two teams without knowing the identity of either team. The information they choose to scrutinize these teams on generally includes strength of schedule and record. Never mind how the teams performed in each game or who the teams lost to. They treat every win the same and every loss the same. That would make sense if each team played more than 11% of the teams in college football. When the schedule only features a small percentage of the teams in the country, victory margin plays a vital role in the ability to adequately judge a team’s resume.
That brings me to something that Gary Danielson did during the SEC Championship game. He ranked the wins in order of perceived value for both Michigan and Florida. I actually liked the concept but at no point did Danielson include the scores for any of the games. Apparently Florida’s one-point win over South Carolina that featured three blocked SC kicks is as impressive as Michigan’s domination of Minnesota. Likewise, Florida’s ten point loss to Auburn is as impressive as Michigan’s three point loss at Ohio State. At least that’s how Danielson made it appear.
Here is what Danielson showed on CBS (or a similar version):
--------------Michigan-------------------Florida
Losses:----1)@ Ohio State --------------1)@Auburn
Wins:------1) @ Notre Dame------------1)LSU
------------2) ----Wisconsin--------------2)Arkansas
------------3)-@ Penn State--------------3)@ Tennessee
------------4) -----Iowa-------------------4) @ Georgia
------------5)@ Minnesota---------------5) Kentucky
------------6) Michigan State------------6) Alabama
------------7)----Vanderbilt--------------7) Florida State
------------8)----Central Michigan------8) S. Carolina
------------9)@ Indiana-------------------9) Southern Mississippi
-----------10)---Northwestern------------10) UCF
-----------11)---Ball St.---------------------11) Western Carolina
--------------Michigan------------------------------------Florida
Losses:-----1) @ Ohio State-----------39-42-------1)@Auburn-------------------17-27
Wins:-----1) @ Notre Dame-----------47-21-------1)LSU-----------------------23-10
------------2) ----Wisconsin-------------27-13------2)Arkansas------------------38-28
------------3)-@ Penn State-------------17-10------3)@ Tennessee--------------21-20
------------4) -----Iowa-------------------20-6------4) @ Georgia----------------21-14
------------5)@ Minnesota--------------28-14------5) Kentucky------------------26-7
------------6) Michigan State--------31-13--------- 6) Alabama------------------28-13
------------7)----Vanderbilt-------------27-7--------7) @ Florida State--------------21-14
------------8)----Central Michigan—--41-17--------8) S. Carolina---------------17-16
------------9)@ Indiana-----------------34-3--------9) @ Vanderbilt----------------25-19
-----------10)---Northwestern----------17-3--------10)Southern Mississippi-----34-7
-----------11)---Ball St.-----------------34-26-------11) UCF------------------------42-0
----------------------------------------------------------12) Western Carolina---------62-0
A side by side comparison of the scores of each game reveals a lot more than simply looking at wins and losses. Since the schedules are ranked based on perceived value, I think it’s at least somewhat informative to compare the results of each of the values. Michigan, by an overwhelming margin, took care of its schedule more impressively than Florida did. Florida beat Tennessee and South Carolina by one point. It beat Vanderbilt by six points. It beat Florida State and Georgia by seven points. Michigan had no victories by less than seven points. South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Florida State, and Georgia had a combined record of 25-22. Florida won those four games by a total of 21 points. Florida struggled mightily against the average teams on its schedule. This is not meant to be an attempt to further Michigan’s case for the BCS Championship game. The main objective of this is to put a halt to the pro-Florida bandwagon that is surely going to flare up as powerful as the USC bandwagon that came out of nowhere last week. Florida was anything but impressive in its victories this season. A 12-1 record is a fine accomplishment. But, I don’t want to hear how Florida’s schedule was so much harder than Michigan’s. That is simply not true. What is true, though, is that Florida was far less impressive than Michigan.
Debunking Florida’s Supposed Advantages
I know it’s cliché to say that the SEC is the toughest conference in America. In many years, that is true. This year, it is not true. Florida, LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn are all very good teams. Tennessee was OK. Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, and Georgia are not even close to good teams. Georgia lost to Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
The whole argument that a team that doesn’t win its conference championship should not be eligible for the BCS Championship is only an argument you would hear in D-1A college football. I guess the Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, and St. Louis Cardinals should be presented with championship rings for the 1997, 2002, 2003 and 2004 World Series respectively because they lost in the Series to teams that didn’t even win their own division. Similarly, I suppose the New York Giants should be awarded de facto Super Bowl rings for their loss to the non-division winning Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV. All of the “Michigan didn’t even win its conference” talk is just a poorly designed ploy by people who don’t want to see a rematch for personal enjoyment. Is it not possible for the two best teams in college football to come from the same conference? I don’t think there is anyone who would actually argue that it’s not possible. Isn’t it also true that the BCS is designed to pit the two best teams against each other? I don’t think there is anyone who would argue against that either. So, all of the “Michigan didn’t win its own conference” arguments should either be prefaced with a “you are about to hear unsound reasoning” disclaimer, or thrown out all together.
The “Michigan already had its chance” argument is also devoid of sound reasoning. If people don’t want to see a rematch because they don’t follow the Big Ten and think it would be boring, then that’s a reasonable opinion. But, to say that Michigan somehow lost its chance at a spot in the BCS Championship game by losing a regular season game on the road is ignoring the reality of sports. Name a sport that says a regular season game on the road constitutes a “true National Championship game”. Has there ever been a Super Bowl or BCS Championship game that wasn’t played at a supposed “neutral site”? Of course there hasn’t. There is a reason for that. Home games give an edge to the home team. There isn’t supposed to be an edge in a National Championship game. Name a sport that doesn’t permit rematches in its championship games. The New England Patriots won Super Bowl XXXIV over the St. Louis Rams. According to a number of college football analysts/fans, the Patriots should not have been able to win the Super Bowl that year since they lost to the Rams in the regular season. Only in college football do bogus reasons masquerade as sound reasoning.
Another reason for Florida's inclusion being bantered around is the fact that it had to play a conference championship game. For the longest time, I have not been able to figure out whether it is incredibly stupid, or extremely brave to play a conference championship game. No conference has to play a conference championship. A conference championship makes it increasingly harder to put a team in the BCS Championship. Many conferences have lost representatives in the BCS Championship because of their conference championship game. The tradeoff is a big payday for having a “championship” game of its own. My opinion is that it’s not worth the tradeoff. I know a lot of people complain that every conference should have a conference championship. Most of the people that make those complaints are fans of a team that plays in a conference that has a championship game. The “conference championship” is just a creation by greedy Presidents and AD’s to bring in more money. I don’t know how they parlayed their greed into a knock on other conferences that don’t choose to follow suit. If I were the Big Ten or Pac-10 commissioner, I would be laughing at the other conferences for being stupid enough to handicap their teams’ chances of winning a National Championship. So, I guess I can’t really fault Michigan because the Big Ten neglects to play a championship game when there are no rules mandating it. In fact, the conference championship seems unnecessary since a team plays almost every team in the conference during the regular season anyway. After talking (or typing) this out, I don’t see the fact that the SEC plays a championship game as a compelling argument against Michigan. (An interesting side note--for years and years there was no such thing as a “National Championship game”. In fact, the first true National Championship game didn’t take place until 1995. Yet, the first “Conference Championship game” was the SEC Championship in 1992. The conferences got their act together before the NCAA did. That should shed some light on the obstacles fans have to deal with for a playoff to become a reality. I also find it interesting that many Presidents and AD’s have argued that there doesn’t need to be a playoff because the regular season is the playoff. If that is the case, then why do conferences need a conference championship game to begin with?)
Scott Frost is NOT in the House
Since I am a Michigan fan and I have spent the majority of this post rejecting reasons why Florida should be in the BCS Championship game, it probably seems as though I am pulling a Scott Frost whine-job for Michigan. While it might look that way, my intention is to give an unbiased as possible look at the situation. I am not rejecting Florida’s inclusion in the BCS Championship game, rather I’m rejecting certain reasons that are being used to support Florida’s claim. If people think Florida would beat Michigan head to head, then by all means, vote them in. Most of the arguments for Florida are bunk. Michigan has the edge in almost every comparison. It has the better computer ratings (at least as of now). It is ranked higher in the polls. It has the best loss. It has the most impressive margin of victories. In fact, most analysts/fans openly admit that Michigan would probably beat Florida head to head. I just don’t think there is a compelling reason for Florida other than for variety. Based on the “rules” of the BCS, variety has nothing to do with it so that is certainly not a compelling argument.
Should Florida be able play for the National Championship? Definitely. I feel bad for whichever team gets left out. Unfortunately, there is an arcane system in place that prevents all but two deserving teams from playing for a championship. Since there is only one spot open, I can only compare the resumes of the two teams. Based on what I have seen, I would expect Michigan to beat Florida. I would expect both to lose to Ohio State.
People have simply forgotten how good Michigan was this year
I don’t necessarily take pride in the fact that Michigan could lose to Ohio State twice in the same season. That makes me nauseous just thinking about it. But, Ohio State needs to play somebody. That somebody should be the most qualified team. Had Michigan’s season not ended two weeks ago, this wouldn’t even be an argument. In fact, had Michigan’s season not ended two weeks ago, there might not have even been an argument for USC over Michigan. A lot of opinions have changed over the last two weeks since Michigan last played. Voters obviously forgot how good Michigan was because Michigan never dropped in the polls after wins over Ball St., Indiana and Northwestern. Yet, it dropped after not playing at all. Sure, USC beat Notre Dame but who actually thought Notre Dame would win that game?
The Verdict
The interesting, and often maddening, thing about college football is that public opinion is swayed so much by so little. There is no doubt in my mind that the fact that Florida was playing after USC caused some voters to go with the “win and in” mentality. There is also no doubt in my mind that, like the whole USC situation, the idea of “Michigan already having its chance” will start to creep into the minds of voters who had previously dismissed that notion. It is for that reason that I cannot say for certain how the human polls will turn out. Going into this week, Michigan’s lead over Florida in the polls was fairly substantial. I don’t have the breakdown of all the voters but it looks like the vast majority of pollsters had Michigan ranked ahead of Florida. It would take a sizeable amount of pollsters to change their minds for Florida to move up to #2 in the BCS Standings. If Florida jumps Michigan in even one poll, there is a very good chance that the Gators will be headed to Tempe to play Ohio State. Florida is already ahead of Michigan in two of the computers. Judging from the way USC leaped over Michigan in the computers after beating Notre Dame, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Florida do the same. So, the fate of both Michigan and Florida are in the hands of the voters. If even one poll has Florida second, then Florida will probably go. If neither poll has Florida second, then the rematch is on.
I will be fine with whatever the outcome is. As I said earlier, I am not thrilled with the idea of Michigan losing to Ohio State again. I don’t think there are any teams that are at the same level as Ohio State. My only complaint is with shady arguments. If you want Florida in the BCS Championship game because that game would interest you more, then just admit it. If you simply think Florida would beat Michigan, then that’s fine too. Just avoid any of the faux arguments that I mentioned earlier. May the better team lose to Ohio State.
A couple footnotes:
Does helmet to helmet only exist in the Midwest? Did anyone see USC’s Rey Maualuga pull a Shawn Crable on UCLA’s Patrick Cowan? That was ridiculous. It was the exact same play. You could even hear the helmet to helmet on the replay. The announcers were lauding it as if it were the best hit ever. Meanwhile, Brent Musberger and Bob Davie condemned Crable’s hit as an act of stupidity. It’s amazing how perspective’s change based on whether a ref misses a call or not.
Lou Ferrigno’s son plays for USC. I think the fact that his name is Lou Ferrigno Jr. gave it away.
Did anyone see UCLA’s Bruce Davis rip into Lee Corso and Kirk Herbstreit after the game? I love it when athletes from underachieving teams rip into people for picking against them. That is a first cousin of the “nobody thought we would win” proclamation. Maybe if UCLA didn’t lose to Washington State and WASHINGTON this year, people would have given the Bruins a chance. I know it was an emotional victory and all but I prefer to see humility whenever possible.
Percy Harvin is awesome.
Why do sideline reporters ask coaches if they are interested in other coaching jobs? I know their job is to ask juicy questions but at least ask something that has better than a 0% chance of being answered. I have never, ever seen a coach answer something other than “I am happy where I’m at” or “Now is not the time to discuss that”. All it does is annoy the coach and the viewer.
Did anyone hear Lloyd Carr’s appearance on Sportscenter late Saturday night in his supposed attempt to sway voters to pick Michigan? ESPN probably had in mind a heated debate between Carr and Urban Meyer but if they knew anything about Carr, they would have known that wasn’t going to happen. If Carr won’t reveal his true feelings when his response may help Michigan’s chances at playing in the BCS Championship game, then you know he won’t be revealing any inside info during his mid-season weekly press conferences anytime soon. It ain’t called The Fort for nothing.
Friday, December 01, 2006
Simulated Gambling Final Installment
This week marks the end of a sad display of college football picking. As it stands, I’m four games above .500. Even if I get all nine of my picks this week correct, that would still put me below my expectations coming into the season. By the way, I guess Miami (FL) did have some fight left in it. Be forewarned; don’t ever bet against the Hurricanes when they have a chance to clinch a spot in the MPC Computers Bowl. I like the fact that college football has non-bowl games into December. It helps pass the time between the regular season and bowl season. It also proves that the whole argument about a playoff being too much of a time commitment to the student athlete is a bunch of hogwash. Although, it would be nice if one of these years, Army got competitive enough to make the Army/Navy game worth watching. There’s nothing worse than two mediocre teams playing a blowout.
Season record to date: 96-92-6
(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)
CALIFORNIA -28.5 Stanford
Cal hasn’t been playing well having lost two in a row but Stanford is horrendous. Illinois might beat Stanford by 28.5.
Southern California -13 UCLA
Let’s just call this a reverse psychology pick. If USC wins in a blowout, then I get this pick right. If UCLA keeps it close, then I at least get to hold on to a Michigan National Championship for a few minutes longer.
TCU -18 Air Force
I don’t see anything on either team’s schedule that indicates this game should be an 18-point spread.
SAN JOSE STATE -5 Fresno State
Fresno State has had a lousy season but it has come on as of late. This should be a close game.
Troy -11 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Florida International is terrible. It has lost most of its games this season by at least twenty points.
Georgia Tech -3 Wake Forest
Georgia Tech’s anemic offense should keep Wake in the game.
Florida -3 Arkansas
I think Arkansas matches up pretty well with Florida. The Gators have a hard time putting points on the board which means Arkansas doesn’t need to throw to win.
Oklahoma -3 Nebraska
If it weren’t for the “screw job” at Oregon, Oklahoma would be right up there in the BCS Championship talk. After last season’s debacle, I certainly didn’t expect the Sooners to be this good.
HAWAII -7.5 Oregon State
I’d like to see Hawaii play Alabama again. I know a team can look mighty impressive playing against “cupcakes” but Hawaii has been dropping 60 points every week.
Season record to date: 96-92-6
(Home team in CAPS; My picks in Bold)
CALIFORNIA -28.5 Stanford
Cal hasn’t been playing well having lost two in a row but Stanford is horrendous. Illinois might beat Stanford by 28.5.
Southern California -13 UCLA
Let’s just call this a reverse psychology pick. If USC wins in a blowout, then I get this pick right. If UCLA keeps it close, then I at least get to hold on to a Michigan National Championship for a few minutes longer.
TCU -18 Air Force
I don’t see anything on either team’s schedule that indicates this game should be an 18-point spread.
SAN JOSE STATE -5 Fresno State
Fresno State has had a lousy season but it has come on as of late. This should be a close game.
Troy -11 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Florida International is terrible. It has lost most of its games this season by at least twenty points.
Georgia Tech -3 Wake Forest
Georgia Tech’s anemic offense should keep Wake in the game.
Florida -3 Arkansas
I think Arkansas matches up pretty well with Florida. The Gators have a hard time putting points on the board which means Arkansas doesn’t need to throw to win.
Oklahoma -3 Nebraska
If it weren’t for the “screw job” at Oregon, Oklahoma would be right up there in the BCS Championship talk. After last season’s debacle, I certainly didn’t expect the Sooners to be this good.
HAWAII -7.5 Oregon State
I’d like to see Hawaii play Alabama again. I know a team can look mighty impressive playing against “cupcakes” but Hawaii has been dropping 60 points every week.
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