As the season rolls along, each week provides less movement by teams going on and off my projected NCAA Tournament list. However, a two or three game winning/losing streak can happen in just seven short days. That means teams can go from firmly being in the projections (Michigan, Kentucky) to barely hanging on to an at-large bid in the span of a week. Conversely, teams can go from “also-ran” status to being firmly in the field (Alabama, Seton Hall). It seems like this year’s crop of bubble teams is much weaker than in years past. Teams like Cincinnati and Kentucky are carrying around questionable resumes but with a short list of qualified teams to take their place, I can’t project those two teams out of the tournament yet.
Here are the changes I made to the projected automatic bid winners:
MWC San Diego St. replaces Air Force
Big West Pacific replaces UC Irvine
Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
1 ACC Duke
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East UCONN
4 Big 12 Texas
5 Big Ten Illinois
6 Pac-10 Washington
7 MVC N. Iowa
8 MWC San Diego St.
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 George Washington
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt W. Kentucky
16 Horizon Wisconsin-Mil.
17 MAAC Iona
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC IUPUI
20 Big West Pacific
21 OVC Murray St.
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Bucknell
25 Southland Northwestern St.
26 Northeast Farleigh Dickinson
27 AEC Albany
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Seton Hall
33 At-Large Syracuse
34 At-Large Villanova
35 At-Large Pittsburgh
36 At-Large W. Virginia
37 At-Large Cincinnati
38 At-Large Marquette
39 At-Large Georgetown
40 At-Large NC State
41 At-Large Boston College
42 At-Large N. Carolina
43 At-Large Maryland
44 At-Large California
45 At-Large MSU
46 At-Large Indiana
47 At-Large Michigan
48 At-Large Ohio St.
49 At-Large Wisconsin
50 At-Large Iowa
51 At-Large Kentucky
52 At-Large Tennessee
53 At-Large LSU
54 At-Large Alabama
55 At-Large Oklahoma
56 At-Large Kansas
57 At-Large Colorado
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Arizona
60 At-Large UCLA
61 At-Large UAB
62 At-Large Missouri St.
63 At-Large Wichita St.
64 At-Large Creighton
65 At-Large S. Illinois
I haven't listed the 65 teams in order yet. I'll start doing that in a few weeks. The field that I have "projected" now assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets.
The last seven teams in the tourney right now:
1. Alabama
Alabama is projected to be in the tournament for the first time since November. The Crimson Tide opened the season on a disappointing note after unanimously being considered a top 25 team. On Dec. 31, Alabama stood at 6-5. Now, the Tide is 14-8 including an impressive 7-3 record in the SEC. This past week, Alabama beat LSU, Vanderbilt and Mississippi. If Alabama can finish its last six conference games at 3-3 or better, it will be tourney bound.
RPI rating: 42
Pomeroy rating: 73
Quality wins: @ Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, Vanderbilt
Bad losses: Mississippi, @ Georgia
2. Arkansas
The Razorbacks almost pulled off a tournament bid-clinching victory at LSU this week. Instead of picking up the monumental win, they lost 78-77 to stay firmly on the bubble. Arkansas has the lowest RPI of any team that I have projected in the tournament field. I have to admit that I’m a bit confused by its low number. The Razorbacks have good non-conference wins and stand at 5-5 in the SEC. Also, in each of Arkansas five conference losses, it has lost by less than five points. Arkansas’ Pomeroy rating is very impressive at 26 so hopefully the selection committee will take that into consideration. Nonetheless, it looks like Arkansas will have to pull off a big win down the stretch to improve its RPI to something more respectable.
RPI rating: 66
Pomeroy rating: 26
Quality wins: Kansas (neutral site), Missouri St., Vanderbilt,
Bad losses: @ Mississippi
3. Cincinnati
I don’t think Cincinnati will make the tournament. Its remaining Big East schedule is just too daunting. The Bearcats are only 5-6 in the conference with games @ Syracuse, Villanova, @ Seton Hall, and W. Virginia still left on their schedule. I don’t anticipate Cincinnati doing any better than 2-3 in those games leaving it at 7-9 in conference play. Even though there are worse resumes among bubble teams in terms of “bad losses” and “RPI”, Cincinnati’s is hardly impressive.
RPI rating: 32
Pomeroy rating: 49
Quality wins: LSU (neutral site), @ Vanderbilt, @ Marquette,
Bad losses: Dayton
4. Kentucky
Kentucky is in trouble. I thought the Wildcats would take advantage of a weak SEC. It looked like they were going to do just that after starting off 5-2 in conference play. However, three straight losses have put Kentucky at an unenviable record of 15-9. With a resume lacking of quality wins, Kentucky needs to beat a good team. The good news for Kentucky is that the next three games should be wins (Georgia, @ S. Carolina, and Mississippi). That would set up Kentucky nicely for its brutal three-game stretch to close out SEC play which includes game @ LSU, @ Tennessee, and Florida. A 4-2 record in those six games would clinch a bid. A 3-3 record would probably require a strong showing in the SEC tournament. A team with 13 losses doesn’t normally get into the tournament.
RPI rating: 44
Pomeroy rating: 53
Quality wins: W. Virginia (neutral site), Arkansas
Bad losses: none
5. Missouri St.
No team did more for its tournament chances this week than Missouri St. Last week, it looked like Missouri St. was destined for the NIT. The Bears beat N. Iowa on the road in a must-win game to raise their RPI to an impressive 26. The Missouri Valley Conference usually doesn’t stand a chance at four at-large bids but the teams from this conference are forcing the committee’s hand by keeping their RPI’s in the top 30. Missouri St. was lacking a marquee win to go along with an impressive record and solid RPI. The victory on the road over N. Iowa has bolstered an already strong resume.
RPI rating: 26
Pomeroy rating: 30
Quality wins: S. Illinois, Bradley, @ N. Iowa
Bad losses: none
6. Indiana
Indiana is a mess right now. What looked to be a promising season has gone south. It wasn’t a coincidence that Indiana’s struggles started when D.J. White went down for the season. The Hoosiers are wasting the unexpected emergence of senior transfer Marco Killingsworth. This was the season for Indiana to break out. Since it didn’t happen, this could be the season that puts Mike Davis on notice. Fans in Bloomington want more than what they’re getting and Davis obviously knows this after his comment this past week. Luckily for Indiana, there is a Big Ten team that is struggling even more. That team is Michigan. Indiana has six Big Ten games remaining. With two games against Penn St. and two others against Purdue and Michigan, the Hoosiers should go 4-2 in those games which would be good enough for 9-7 in the Big Ten. That would get Indiana in.
RPI rating: 35
Pomeroy rating: 50
Quality wins: Kentucky, Ohio St., Illinois
Bad losses: @ Indiana St., @ Minnesota
8. Michigan
If the season ended today, Michigan would be in the tournament. Unfortunately for Michigan, the season doesn’t end today and they won’t be in the tournament come March. The bad breaks keep coming in Ann Arbor for Tommy Amaker. Two weeks ago, if you would’ve asked a college basketball “expert” whether Michigan will make the tournament or not, they’d laugh in your face for asking such a silly question. Three straight losses later, the wheels are falling off. Entering this week, Michigan only needed to beat Purdue and Minnesota to secure a tournament bid. That means Michigan could’ve gone 2-4 in its last six games and still made the tournament. Michigan got blasted by Purdue this week which leaves only one winnable game left on the schedule. Michigan will like lose its last four games and finish 7-9 in the Big Ten.
RPI rating: 31
Pomeroy rating: 39
Quality wins: Michigan St., Wisconsin
Bad losses: @ Purdue
The teams waiting in the wings:
The teams on this list aren’t as close to being in the tournament as it appears. As of now, I can conveniently assume that teams like Gonzaga and Nevada will win their conference’s automatic bids. If they don’t, some of the teams that I have projected in the tournament will get bumped which will push the teams below even farther down the list. But, like Alabama and Seton Hall, it is possible for a team to come off of this list and jump into the 65-team field.
1. Vanderbilt
Vandy is holding on to a position on the bubble admirably. After embarking on a four-game losing streak, Vandy beat Kentucky for the second time this season to bring its conference record to 4-6. If the Commodores can go 4-2 in their last six conference games, they will make the NCAA Tournament. The problem is that I see three wins at the most.
RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 60
Quality wins: @ Georgetown, @ Kentucky, Kentucky
Bad losses: @ Ga. Tech, Georgia
2. NC Wilmington
My guess is that NC Wilmington will have a top 45 RPI at the end of the season. The question will be whether or not NC Wilmington’s unimpressive resume is impressive enough for the selection committee. The Seahawks have virtually no marquee wins while playing in a mid-tier conference. That doesn’t bode well for a tournament bid.
RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 54
Quality wins: George Mason
Bad losses: College of Charleston, E. Carolina,
3. Xavier
Xavier should not make the tournament. Short of winning the A-10 conference tournament, Xavier can’t possibly do enough with its remaining schedule to earn an at-large bid. The Musketeers are 5-5 in an incredibly weak A-10 conference. They have one quality win and that was at home, in overtime over a struggling Cincinnati team. Xavier’s RPI is a disaster at 74.
RPI rating: 74
Pomeroy rating: 52
Quality wins: Cincinnati
Bad losses: St. Louis, @ St. Louis, LaSalle
4. Air Force
While Air Force has been impressive at times, losing four times in the Mountain West Conference is not the best way to get noticed by the committee. The Falcons need to win the MWC to make the tournament. San Diego St. appears to be the best team in the conference while Air Force is battling UNLV and BYU for second place. Air Force has no marquee wins and an average RPI.
RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 44
Quality wins: Miami (FL)
Bad losses: @ Wyoming, @ New Mexico, @ BYU
5. Houston
Of all the teams on this list, Houston has the best shot at receiving an at-large bid. It might not look like it now, but the Cougars could finish the regular season at 19-7 and 10-4 in Conference USA. Earlier in the year, Houston won at LSU and beat Arizona. Those two wins are as impressive as any combination of wins by a team on the bubble. My guess is that Houston will not make the tournament due to the mediocrity of C-USA. But, if teams like Michigan, Indiana, and Kentucky continue to struggle, Houston’s resume might end up being good enough squeeze in.
RPI rating: 59
Pomeroy rating: 91
Quality wins: @ LSU, Arizona
Bad losses: @ S. Alabama, @ Rice, Central Florida
6. Louisville
Louisville has seven Big East games left. If the Cardinals go 5-2 in those games, I think they will likely get an at-large bid. Anything less would mean an NIT berth for a team that started the season in the top 10. I don’t think computer ratings and quality wins or losses will come into play for Louisville. I think it will all come down to whether it has a .500 or better conference record. 8-8 will probably get them in. 7-9 will keep them out.
RPI rating: 65
Pomeroy rating: 45
Quality wins:
Bad losses: none
7. Florida St.
Florida St. is in the same category as Houston. Right now, FSU does not look like a threat to make the tournament. However, at 5-5 in the ACC, FSU has legitimate shot at finishing 8-8 in the ACC. For a conference that is considered among the top two in college basketball, a sixth team would not be a lot to ask for. FSU needs to beat Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Miami (FL) to get to 8-8. I doubt those wins will improve FSU’s weak RPI but 8-8 goes a long way in the ACC.
RPI rating: 67
Pomeroy rating: 28
Quality wins: @ Virginia
Bad losses: @ Clemson
8. Miami (FL)
On the surface, it looks like Miami (FL) would have a better shot at making the tournament since it stands at 6-5 in the ACC. However, with a tough remaining schedule, Miami might only pick up one more win in conference play. If Miami can win two (the best chance for this would be wins over Va. Tech and Florida St.), it will be at 8-8 in the ACC. There is probably a 50/50 chance that either FSU or Miami will finish at 8-8 in the ACC.
RPI rating: 82
Pomeroy rating: 58
Quality wins: Maryland, @ N. Carolina, @ FSU
Bad losses: none
9. Virginia
Like FSU and Miami, Virginia could reach 8-8 in the ACC. It would only require two victories over FSU and Clemson. The problem for Virginia is that 8-8 in the ACC would only be good enough for a 15-12 record overall. Virginia only has one marquee win this season. Virginia would have the worst shot at receiving an at-large bid of the teams that could finish at 8-8 in the ACC.
RPI rating: 56
Pomeroy rating: 65
Quality wins: N. Carolina, Miami (FL)
Bad losses: @ Ga. Tech, Fordham
10 Iowa St.
11 Utah St.
12 S. Carolina
13 Stanford
14 Hofstra
15 Old Dominion
Here are the highest rated (RPI) teams that I have projected out of the tournament:
#45 NC Wilmington
#46 Air Force
#50 St. Joseph's
#51 Old Dominion
#52 South Carolina
#53 Utah St.
#54 Hofstra
#56 Virginia
#57 Temple
#58 Vanderbilt
#59 Houston
#61 BYU
#62 Bradley
#63 Iowa St.
#64 Virginia Commonwealth
#65 Louisville
Here are the lowest rated (RPI) teams that I project to be in the tournament
#66 Arkansas
#55 California
#49 Colorado
#48 UAB
#44 Kentucky
#43 Kansas
#42 Alabama
#41 Maryland
#40 Washington
#36 Marquette
#35 Indiana
#33 Seton Hall
#32 Cincinnati
#31 Michigan
#30 Creighton
#29 Boston College
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (5)
Duke
NC State
Boston College
N. Carolina
Maryland
SEC (6)
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
Alabama
Big East (9)
UCONN
Syracuse
Villanova
Pittsburgh
W. Virginia
Cincinnati
Marquette
Georgetown
Seton Hall
Big 12 (4)
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Colorado
Big Ten (7)
Illinois
MSU
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Iowa
Pac-10 (4)
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
California
C-USA (2)
Memphis
UAB
A-10 (1)
GW
MVC (5)
N. Iowa
Creighton
Wichita St.
S. Illinois
Missouri St.
Monday, February 13, 2006
Friday, February 10, 2006
Random Thoughts in my head Detroit Edition
-For all of the tormented Tigers fans out there I’ve got some good news. The Tigers farm system is quickly becoming one of the best and deepest in MLB. Here is a summary of the current status of the farm system. The Tigers have another top pick (#6 overall) in this year’s draft. Judging from Dave Dombrowski’s recent drafts, that pick will likely yield another formidable prospect. So, when things don’t go right again this year, just remember that the future is bright.
-The Pistons getting four starters onto the Eastern All-Star squad is quite an accomplishment. However, the Pistons no longer have a strangle-hold on home court advantage. They are only two games up on both Dallas and San Antonio. The championship will be won by the team with home court advantage. Detroit needs to finish the last three games before the break strong which includes games @ Miami and New Jersey. It’s important to remember that the Pistons will have played 13 games in the last 21 days. Fatigue is a factor in the regular season with so many back to back games. That won’t be an issue come playoff time.
-Lloyd Carr backed his way in to naming Ron English the new DC for the UM football team. That collective scream of exuberance that you probably didn’t hear comes from UM fans all across the world. English was already in his first week at his new job as the Chicago Bears LB coach when Carr finally realized that he wanted English after all. English’s effect will be felt through recruiting more than anything else. It was for that reason that it was crucial to keep him in the program. Plus, Jim Herrmann can now bless the New York Jets with his brilliant game-planning.
-The Red Wings are among a group of 10-15 teams that could win the Stanley Cup. I don’t think this Red Wing team is made for the playoffs. I could be wrong but this team reminds me of the 1994 team that set all sorts of regular season records only to get swept in the Stanley Cup finals by a bunch of bullies.
-The UM basketball team is in dire straights with the injuries to Lester Abram and Dion Harris. My guess is that UM will only need to beat Purdue and Minnesota to make the tournament. That sounds easy but without Abram, Dion Harris and back-up point guard Jerrett Smith, UM could be in big trouble at Purdue this weekend. If they lose, sound the alarm. That would put UM’s tournament chances on life support.
-The Super Bowl was far more important and meaningful to the city and people of Detroit than it was to the NFL and its millions of fans. The game was a dud as far as entertainment goes. The officiating ruined any suspense that would’ve gone along with a close game. Bettis-mania and the Porter/Stevens debacle hijacked any pre-game excitement as those stories were beaten to death by the media. Detroit was the big winner of Super Sunday.
-Having said that, the expected talk of how Detroit will use its Super Bowl success to springboard towards respect for the city is ridiculous. Detroit only proved that a). you could go downtown without dying (with the exception of the two people that were actually shot) and b). it can host a sporting event without totally blowing it. Until the city morphs from various patches of “good areas” amidst broken down houses and dark alley’s, to a legitimately safe and aesthetically pleasing city, nothing will change.
-Even though the MSU basketball team is short on depth, the big three is good enough to carry MSU to another Final Four. Duke and UConn are the only two teams in college basketball that are clearly better than MSU. Sparty falls into a group that includes Villanova, Gonzaga, W.Virginia, Florida, Tennessee, Memphis and Texas that could go on a run come tournament time. From what I’ve seen, MSU is the best team in the Big Ten and could be the third best team in the country come March.
-Next season, the UM basketball team will have one center and one power forward that has ever played a meaningful minute of college basketball. As bad as that sounds, those two players will graduate next year leaving UM with one power forward (Kendric Price) and zero centers on the roster for 2007. Amaker needs to pull off a recruiting miracle if he doesn’t want the program to take a step back.
-The Pistons getting four starters onto the Eastern All-Star squad is quite an accomplishment. However, the Pistons no longer have a strangle-hold on home court advantage. They are only two games up on both Dallas and San Antonio. The championship will be won by the team with home court advantage. Detroit needs to finish the last three games before the break strong which includes games @ Miami and New Jersey. It’s important to remember that the Pistons will have played 13 games in the last 21 days. Fatigue is a factor in the regular season with so many back to back games. That won’t be an issue come playoff time.
-Lloyd Carr backed his way in to naming Ron English the new DC for the UM football team. That collective scream of exuberance that you probably didn’t hear comes from UM fans all across the world. English was already in his first week at his new job as the Chicago Bears LB coach when Carr finally realized that he wanted English after all. English’s effect will be felt through recruiting more than anything else. It was for that reason that it was crucial to keep him in the program. Plus, Jim Herrmann can now bless the New York Jets with his brilliant game-planning.
-The Red Wings are among a group of 10-15 teams that could win the Stanley Cup. I don’t think this Red Wing team is made for the playoffs. I could be wrong but this team reminds me of the 1994 team that set all sorts of regular season records only to get swept in the Stanley Cup finals by a bunch of bullies.
-The UM basketball team is in dire straights with the injuries to Lester Abram and Dion Harris. My guess is that UM will only need to beat Purdue and Minnesota to make the tournament. That sounds easy but without Abram, Dion Harris and back-up point guard Jerrett Smith, UM could be in big trouble at Purdue this weekend. If they lose, sound the alarm. That would put UM’s tournament chances on life support.
-The Super Bowl was far more important and meaningful to the city and people of Detroit than it was to the NFL and its millions of fans. The game was a dud as far as entertainment goes. The officiating ruined any suspense that would’ve gone along with a close game. Bettis-mania and the Porter/Stevens debacle hijacked any pre-game excitement as those stories were beaten to death by the media. Detroit was the big winner of Super Sunday.
-Having said that, the expected talk of how Detroit will use its Super Bowl success to springboard towards respect for the city is ridiculous. Detroit only proved that a). you could go downtown without dying (with the exception of the two people that were actually shot) and b). it can host a sporting event without totally blowing it. Until the city morphs from various patches of “good areas” amidst broken down houses and dark alley’s, to a legitimately safe and aesthetically pleasing city, nothing will change.
-Even though the MSU basketball team is short on depth, the big three is good enough to carry MSU to another Final Four. Duke and UConn are the only two teams in college basketball that are clearly better than MSU. Sparty falls into a group that includes Villanova, Gonzaga, W.Virginia, Florida, Tennessee, Memphis and Texas that could go on a run come tournament time. From what I’ve seen, MSU is the best team in the Big Ten and could be the third best team in the country come March.
-Next season, the UM basketball team will have one center and one power forward that has ever played a meaningful minute of college basketball. As bad as that sounds, those two players will graduate next year leaving UM with one power forward (Kendric Price) and zero centers on the roster for 2007. Amaker needs to pull off a recruiting miracle if he doesn’t want the program to take a step back.
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
Michigan's catch-22 with Amaker
The Michigan basketball program has finally taken a step, albeit a small one, towards respectability as a college basketball power. While this years team is likely to make Michigan’s first NCAA Tournament appearance in seven years, the overall state of the program is not as promising as it seems. After Michigan served probation for its involvement with Ed Martin, many fans, including myself, thought that Michigan’s return to dominance would be aided by the “snowball effect”. It was reasonable to think that, each year, Michigan’s recruiting classes would get better and better until they mirrored the dominating classes from the 90’s. Unfortunately, Michigan’s recruiting has improved negligibly each year to the point that it’s necessary to use a magnifying glass to recognize the improvements. Granted, the Brian Ellerbee era did not help Michigan’s recovery from probation as it was plagued with suspensions and transfers. Ellerbee’s reign marked the first chance for Michigan’s return to dominance. His failures gave way to Tommy Amaker who also failed to turn the program around as fast as most anticipated.
I was convinced that Michigan would be able to sell its basketball program on name alone after the scandal. Before the Ed Martin scandal, no college basketball school could claim a better recruiting program than Michigan. That includes Duke. A lot has been made of Michigan’s inferior training facilities. Supposedly, that has kept Michigan from bringing in the top caliber high school recruits. Sure, top-rate practice facilities are a must for any top basketball program. However, the fact of the matter is that high school recruits don’t choose Michigan St. over Michigan in basketball because of the facilities in the same way that high school football recruits don’t choose Michigan over Michigan St. because of Michigan’s training facilities. Success breeds successful recruiting classes. Michigan’s problem was that it had to start over from zero. For all intents and purposes, Michigan’s basketball program was wiped out as we knew it. It had nothing to sell to high school recruits in the name of competitiveness. As a result, nobody wanted to commit to four years of uncertainty.
Michigan is not the only major college basketball program to be crippled by a recruiting scandal. Kentucky went through the same situation in 1988. They were put on probation that barred them from post-season play for two years. Like Michigan, Kentucky had to start from scratch. The big difference is that Kentucky’s first hire to fix the problem ended up working out pretty well (Rick Pitino). Kentucky did not have a 3-4 year gap where it toiled in mediocrity while bringing in players with questionable character. Michigan could’ve followed Kentucky’s lead by bringing in a high-profile coach to keep the program’s momentum going. That mistake by the Michigan Athletic Department proved to be too much to overcome as the program is still paying for that gaffe today. Pitino came on board and managed to bring in highly-rated recruits such as Jamal Mashburn almost immediately. Had Mashburn burned out at Kentucky after his freshman year and Kentucky got blown out on a regular basis, Pitino would’ve had a difficult time selling the program. Brian Ellerbee exacerbated the problems by failing to move the program in the right direction immediately. That is a must for a program recovering from NCAA sanctions. Nobody ever got a chance to forget about Kentucky because they addressed the need for a big-name coach immediately. The same can’t be said for Michigan.
As a result of the 3-4 year gap that was plagued by Ellerbee’s incompetence, Michigan St. had unfettered access to virtually all of Michigan’s former recruiting fields. Michigan St. was dominating Michigan on and off the court which led to an even bigger recruiting advantage. Having to justify a recruiting scandal to recruits is one thing but being out-performed on a regular basis by another school is a whole different monster. Kentucky had enough on its hands having to explain how the program would return to dominance to recruits like Mashburn without having to convince kids that Kentucky was a good basketball school. Imagine if Kentucky was regularly losing by 30 and 40 points to LSU and Florida over a 4-year span. I doubt they would’ve rebounded in the same successful manner.
The decline of the Michigan basketball program is allegorical to the days where a gunshot wound to the leg or arm would kill the victim more times than not. It wasn’t the shot that killed the person; rather it was the infection that followed. The recruiting scandal was like a gunshot wound. The recruiting scandal did not kill the program. It was Ellerbee’s dereliction that destroyed the program. Michigan’s plan for recovering from the recruiting scandal was deplorable. Ellerbee had no big-time college basketball experience. His name had no drawing power among recruits. It was a terrible and program-debilitating move by the Athletic Department.
Even though Tommy Amaker has been a breath of fresh air for the UM Athletic Department and fans that had to weather the dark days of the late 90’s and early 00’s, his tenure has also been plagued by a run of unfortunate situations and recruiting missteps. Four years is a long time for a basketball program to be rebuilding. Thad Matta took over the Ohio St. basketball program which went through a recruiting scandal as well. In just two short years, Matta has made the Buckeye basketball program the hottest name in the country. Ohio St. is poised to make a run into the NCAA Tournament this year and has the number one recruiting class in the nation coming in next year. That all happened within one year of Matta’s arrival. Amaker is in his fifth season as Michigan’s coach and still hasn’t matched Matta’s accomplishments in just one year.
Amaker is essentially taking his second shot at turning around the basketball program. The last four years have been a lesson in not “rocking the boat”. It seems like Amaker’s number one goal is to compete hard and avoid scandal. That might actually be enough for the Athletic Department. They can sleep well at night with Amaker at the helm. However, Matta and Pitino were much more cavalier about their task of bringing their programs to prominence. Amaker’s recruiting classes have been marginal at best. I talked about the “snowball effect” earlier. Well, Amaker’s recruiting is equivalent to the snowball rolling down a hill with a 3% decline. Even now, Amaker is bringing in one high-impact recruit per season at the most. Michigan’s number one high school basketball player this season has committed to play for Michigan (DeShawn Sims). Similarly, Michigan’s number one high school basketball player in the class of 2007 (Alex Legion) has also committed to Michigan. However, each player is the only marquee recruit in each class. Remember, back in the 90’s, Michigan’s recruiting classes were sometimes good enough to make the NCAA Tournament by themselves. The Fab Five, the 1994 class (Jerrod Ward, Maurice Taylor, Willie Mitchell, Maceo Baston, and Travis Conlan), and the 1995 class (Robert Traylor, Albert White, and Louis Bullock) dwarf anything that Amaker has been able to reel in. In fact, Brian Ellerbee’s 1999 class (LaVell Blanchard, Kevin Gaines, Jamal Crawford, Gavin Groninger, and Leland Anderson) is also better than any class Amaker has been able to bring in.
I suppose it’s possible that I’m asking for too much. Amaker has brought in good basketball players who also double as kids with good character. Players like Brent Petway, Graham Brown, Courtney Sims, and Ron Coleman have the desire to improve and the athletic ability to keep Michigan competitive. I root for them and I’m proud of their resiliency as they had to pay some of the price for the Ed Martin scandal. However, I can’t help but to think that the Michigan basketball program is capable of bringing in top 10-15 recruiting classes on a regular basis. Here are the big-time recruits that Amaker has brought in at Michigan:
2002 Daniel Horton
2003 Dion Harris
2006 DeShawn Sims
2007 Alex Legion
Four big-time recruits in five year leaves a lot to be desired at a school like Michigan. Granted, Michigan’s momentum was crippled by the de-commitments of Joe Crawford and Al Horford in 2004. Had those two players not left Michigan with only one recruit in 2004, the Michigan basketball program would be running on all cylinders today. I certainly don’t blame Amaker for inconsiderate behavior elicited by 17 year olds. However, the program shouldn’t be relying on one or two recruits per year to keep things afloat. It’s been five years and what is still missing from Amaker’s resume is a dominating recruiting class. The irony of the situation is that Michigan had no problems recruiting in the 90’s but lacked execution and stability. Now, Michigan has a stranglehold on stability (and possibly execution depending on your feelings of Amaker’s X’s and O’s) but lacks recruiting prowess.
Year after year, the state of Michigan produces a crop of top high school basketball prospects. Year after year, Michigan manages to secure one of those prospects while the others either flock to MSU or out of the state completely. Kentucky, Memphis, Oregon, Syracuse, Florida, and Notre Dame have all come into Michigan and taken players right in Michigan’s backyard. Meanwhile, Michigan St. is still bringing in top recruiting classes with its focus on Michigan and Ohio. Tom Izzo likes to say that there is enough talent in Michigan for both the UM and MSU basketball programs to thrive. If high school kids from Michigan could only choose UM or MSU, then he would surely be right. However, with other top programs raiding the states best talent, there are clearly not enough players to go around. Amaker needs to do something about that. Whether it’s making a stronger sales-pitch to in-state players or expanding his recruiting base to other states, something needs to change. Remember, Michigan’s recruiting base was limit-less in the 90’s. Steve Fisher built his classes from the top talent in Detroit (Taylor, Mitchell, Traylor, Webber, Rose) and complement them with players from various parts of the country (Howard, King, Jackson, Bullock, Ward). Michigan will not return to dominance until Amaker addresses Michigan’s recruiting problems. One impact player per year will not get the job done.
It is easy to think that the Michigan basketball program is picking up momentum. I pretend that’s the case more times than not. However, the reality is much different. Michigan is off to a solid start this season. The Wolverines are about to break through the barrier that has kept them from the NCAA Tournament over the last eight years. However, this might be the best Michigan team of the next four years. In two years, the Michigan roster might not be any better than it is today, if not worse. Here is a look at the potential roster for 2007-8:
Ron Coleman Sr.
Kendrick Price Jr. (redshirt So.)
Jevhon Shepard Jr.
Jerret Smith Jr.
DeShawn Sims So.
Klen Morris So.
Chris Wright So.
Alex Legion Fr.
Kelvin Grady Fr.
Plus another recruit in the ’06 and ’07 classes
I don’t see how that team could possibly be better than this year’s team. Coleman is a role player who will likely improve over the next two years but I don’t see him ever being better than Lester Abram. Price is a mystery. Shepard is a mystery. Smith looks to be no better than former Michigan and Rice player Bobby Crawford. Morris could end up being a solid role player. Sims could be pretty good but likely won’t have a tremendous impact as a sophomore. Grady and Legion will likely have up and down freshmen seasons as most do. My point is that for a program that is gaining momentum, two years from now should look a whole lot brighter. Granted, with Coleman being the only graduate that season, the 2008-09 season should be one of considerable depth and talent (assuming Sims and Legion don’t leave early). However, that’s three years away. That would put Amaker’s tenure at eight years with nothing more than a sniff of success. Considering the state of Michigan is a breeding ground for big-time basketball recruits, Amaker’s track record so far has to be listed as a disappointment. The group of players coming out of Michigan in 2005 and 2007 were/are some of the deepest in the states history. Michigan has very little to show for it. As long as that trend continues, Michigan will never be better than MSU was during the early 90’s when Michigan was dominating. Unless MSU bails UM out (like UM did) with a recruiting scandal, I don’t see the Michigan program ever rebounding to the way things used to be. I would’ve never said something like that two years ago.
The answer to Michigan’s problem is obviously easier said than done. I’m sure Michigan’s troubles are not from a lack of effort on Amaker’s part. The first thing Michigan needs to do is weaken MSU’s strangle-hold on the state’s top high school players. Whether this means bringing in assistants with ties to Flint and Saginaw or recruiting that area harder, something needs to be done along those lines. The result would be a slight drop-off in success at MSU. That would make it easier to entice a recruit to come to Ann Arbor. Remember, pre-Ed Martin scandal, Michigan was the place to be. MSU had to settle for seconds. At the same time, Amaker needs to extend Michigan’s recruiting scope to a national level. I admire his creativity in recruiting Canada and Boston over the last few years but the program needs a national identity. Amaker needs to recruit Ohio and Chicago with fervor. Lastly, Amaker needs to own Detroit. Detroit has been a breeding ground for Michigan’s basketball program in the past. In the last few years, no less than six difference-making recruits have come out of Detroit and ended up somewhere other than U of M. To sum it up, Michigan has to:
1). Own Detroit
2). Have, at least, a presence in Flint/Saginaw
3). Establish a national recruiting presence
I’m sure the response to this from most Michigan fans would be “duh” but clearly these things are not getting done or Michigan wouldn’t be in its current predicament. Success in college basketball is 90% recruiting and 10% coaching. Steve Fisher proved that. The Fab Five proved that. Teams can win on talent alone in college basketball. Sure, teams that can combine coaching and recruiting like Duke and MSU will be standing at the end of most tournaments but teams with top talent also do well in basketball. Amaker’s number one objective for the rest of his time at Michigan should be recruiting. That is the only way Michigan will return to prominence. I want Amaker to stick around and be responsible for Michigan’s return to glory. Unfortunately, if he doesn’t turn things around on the recruiting trail, Michigan would be better off bringing in someone like Bob Huggins who would immediately bring in top high school recruits on name alone. Huggins would get things done. Amaker needs to do the same. Recruiting well in college basketball is probably the most important job that any coach from any sport has. The margin for error is miniscule.
I’ll leave you with a list of top 100 players that Michigan has missed out on from its own state over the three most recent recruiting classes:
2005 Joe Crawford, Malik Hairston, Al Horford, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Marquise Gray, Eric Devendorf
2006 Tom Herzog, Tory Jackson, Ramar Smith
2007 Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, Darquavis Tucker
I was convinced that Michigan would be able to sell its basketball program on name alone after the scandal. Before the Ed Martin scandal, no college basketball school could claim a better recruiting program than Michigan. That includes Duke. A lot has been made of Michigan’s inferior training facilities. Supposedly, that has kept Michigan from bringing in the top caliber high school recruits. Sure, top-rate practice facilities are a must for any top basketball program. However, the fact of the matter is that high school recruits don’t choose Michigan St. over Michigan in basketball because of the facilities in the same way that high school football recruits don’t choose Michigan over Michigan St. because of Michigan’s training facilities. Success breeds successful recruiting classes. Michigan’s problem was that it had to start over from zero. For all intents and purposes, Michigan’s basketball program was wiped out as we knew it. It had nothing to sell to high school recruits in the name of competitiveness. As a result, nobody wanted to commit to four years of uncertainty.
Michigan is not the only major college basketball program to be crippled by a recruiting scandal. Kentucky went through the same situation in 1988. They were put on probation that barred them from post-season play for two years. Like Michigan, Kentucky had to start from scratch. The big difference is that Kentucky’s first hire to fix the problem ended up working out pretty well (Rick Pitino). Kentucky did not have a 3-4 year gap where it toiled in mediocrity while bringing in players with questionable character. Michigan could’ve followed Kentucky’s lead by bringing in a high-profile coach to keep the program’s momentum going. That mistake by the Michigan Athletic Department proved to be too much to overcome as the program is still paying for that gaffe today. Pitino came on board and managed to bring in highly-rated recruits such as Jamal Mashburn almost immediately. Had Mashburn burned out at Kentucky after his freshman year and Kentucky got blown out on a regular basis, Pitino would’ve had a difficult time selling the program. Brian Ellerbee exacerbated the problems by failing to move the program in the right direction immediately. That is a must for a program recovering from NCAA sanctions. Nobody ever got a chance to forget about Kentucky because they addressed the need for a big-name coach immediately. The same can’t be said for Michigan.
As a result of the 3-4 year gap that was plagued by Ellerbee’s incompetence, Michigan St. had unfettered access to virtually all of Michigan’s former recruiting fields. Michigan St. was dominating Michigan on and off the court which led to an even bigger recruiting advantage. Having to justify a recruiting scandal to recruits is one thing but being out-performed on a regular basis by another school is a whole different monster. Kentucky had enough on its hands having to explain how the program would return to dominance to recruits like Mashburn without having to convince kids that Kentucky was a good basketball school. Imagine if Kentucky was regularly losing by 30 and 40 points to LSU and Florida over a 4-year span. I doubt they would’ve rebounded in the same successful manner.
The decline of the Michigan basketball program is allegorical to the days where a gunshot wound to the leg or arm would kill the victim more times than not. It wasn’t the shot that killed the person; rather it was the infection that followed. The recruiting scandal was like a gunshot wound. The recruiting scandal did not kill the program. It was Ellerbee’s dereliction that destroyed the program. Michigan’s plan for recovering from the recruiting scandal was deplorable. Ellerbee had no big-time college basketball experience. His name had no drawing power among recruits. It was a terrible and program-debilitating move by the Athletic Department.
Even though Tommy Amaker has been a breath of fresh air for the UM Athletic Department and fans that had to weather the dark days of the late 90’s and early 00’s, his tenure has also been plagued by a run of unfortunate situations and recruiting missteps. Four years is a long time for a basketball program to be rebuilding. Thad Matta took over the Ohio St. basketball program which went through a recruiting scandal as well. In just two short years, Matta has made the Buckeye basketball program the hottest name in the country. Ohio St. is poised to make a run into the NCAA Tournament this year and has the number one recruiting class in the nation coming in next year. That all happened within one year of Matta’s arrival. Amaker is in his fifth season as Michigan’s coach and still hasn’t matched Matta’s accomplishments in just one year.
Amaker is essentially taking his second shot at turning around the basketball program. The last four years have been a lesson in not “rocking the boat”. It seems like Amaker’s number one goal is to compete hard and avoid scandal. That might actually be enough for the Athletic Department. They can sleep well at night with Amaker at the helm. However, Matta and Pitino were much more cavalier about their task of bringing their programs to prominence. Amaker’s recruiting classes have been marginal at best. I talked about the “snowball effect” earlier. Well, Amaker’s recruiting is equivalent to the snowball rolling down a hill with a 3% decline. Even now, Amaker is bringing in one high-impact recruit per season at the most. Michigan’s number one high school basketball player this season has committed to play for Michigan (DeShawn Sims). Similarly, Michigan’s number one high school basketball player in the class of 2007 (Alex Legion) has also committed to Michigan. However, each player is the only marquee recruit in each class. Remember, back in the 90’s, Michigan’s recruiting classes were sometimes good enough to make the NCAA Tournament by themselves. The Fab Five, the 1994 class (Jerrod Ward, Maurice Taylor, Willie Mitchell, Maceo Baston, and Travis Conlan), and the 1995 class (Robert Traylor, Albert White, and Louis Bullock) dwarf anything that Amaker has been able to reel in. In fact, Brian Ellerbee’s 1999 class (LaVell Blanchard, Kevin Gaines, Jamal Crawford, Gavin Groninger, and Leland Anderson) is also better than any class Amaker has been able to bring in.
I suppose it’s possible that I’m asking for too much. Amaker has brought in good basketball players who also double as kids with good character. Players like Brent Petway, Graham Brown, Courtney Sims, and Ron Coleman have the desire to improve and the athletic ability to keep Michigan competitive. I root for them and I’m proud of their resiliency as they had to pay some of the price for the Ed Martin scandal. However, I can’t help but to think that the Michigan basketball program is capable of bringing in top 10-15 recruiting classes on a regular basis. Here are the big-time recruits that Amaker has brought in at Michigan:
2002 Daniel Horton
2003 Dion Harris
2006 DeShawn Sims
2007 Alex Legion
Four big-time recruits in five year leaves a lot to be desired at a school like Michigan. Granted, Michigan’s momentum was crippled by the de-commitments of Joe Crawford and Al Horford in 2004. Had those two players not left Michigan with only one recruit in 2004, the Michigan basketball program would be running on all cylinders today. I certainly don’t blame Amaker for inconsiderate behavior elicited by 17 year olds. However, the program shouldn’t be relying on one or two recruits per year to keep things afloat. It’s been five years and what is still missing from Amaker’s resume is a dominating recruiting class. The irony of the situation is that Michigan had no problems recruiting in the 90’s but lacked execution and stability. Now, Michigan has a stranglehold on stability (and possibly execution depending on your feelings of Amaker’s X’s and O’s) but lacks recruiting prowess.
Year after year, the state of Michigan produces a crop of top high school basketball prospects. Year after year, Michigan manages to secure one of those prospects while the others either flock to MSU or out of the state completely. Kentucky, Memphis, Oregon, Syracuse, Florida, and Notre Dame have all come into Michigan and taken players right in Michigan’s backyard. Meanwhile, Michigan St. is still bringing in top recruiting classes with its focus on Michigan and Ohio. Tom Izzo likes to say that there is enough talent in Michigan for both the UM and MSU basketball programs to thrive. If high school kids from Michigan could only choose UM or MSU, then he would surely be right. However, with other top programs raiding the states best talent, there are clearly not enough players to go around. Amaker needs to do something about that. Whether it’s making a stronger sales-pitch to in-state players or expanding his recruiting base to other states, something needs to change. Remember, Michigan’s recruiting base was limit-less in the 90’s. Steve Fisher built his classes from the top talent in Detroit (Taylor, Mitchell, Traylor, Webber, Rose) and complement them with players from various parts of the country (Howard, King, Jackson, Bullock, Ward). Michigan will not return to dominance until Amaker addresses Michigan’s recruiting problems. One impact player per year will not get the job done.
It is easy to think that the Michigan basketball program is picking up momentum. I pretend that’s the case more times than not. However, the reality is much different. Michigan is off to a solid start this season. The Wolverines are about to break through the barrier that has kept them from the NCAA Tournament over the last eight years. However, this might be the best Michigan team of the next four years. In two years, the Michigan roster might not be any better than it is today, if not worse. Here is a look at the potential roster for 2007-8:
Ron Coleman Sr.
Kendrick Price Jr. (redshirt So.)
Jevhon Shepard Jr.
Jerret Smith Jr.
DeShawn Sims So.
Klen Morris So.
Chris Wright So.
Alex Legion Fr.
Kelvin Grady Fr.
Plus another recruit in the ’06 and ’07 classes
I don’t see how that team could possibly be better than this year’s team. Coleman is a role player who will likely improve over the next two years but I don’t see him ever being better than Lester Abram. Price is a mystery. Shepard is a mystery. Smith looks to be no better than former Michigan and Rice player Bobby Crawford. Morris could end up being a solid role player. Sims could be pretty good but likely won’t have a tremendous impact as a sophomore. Grady and Legion will likely have up and down freshmen seasons as most do. My point is that for a program that is gaining momentum, two years from now should look a whole lot brighter. Granted, with Coleman being the only graduate that season, the 2008-09 season should be one of considerable depth and talent (assuming Sims and Legion don’t leave early). However, that’s three years away. That would put Amaker’s tenure at eight years with nothing more than a sniff of success. Considering the state of Michigan is a breeding ground for big-time basketball recruits, Amaker’s track record so far has to be listed as a disappointment. The group of players coming out of Michigan in 2005 and 2007 were/are some of the deepest in the states history. Michigan has very little to show for it. As long as that trend continues, Michigan will never be better than MSU was during the early 90’s when Michigan was dominating. Unless MSU bails UM out (like UM did) with a recruiting scandal, I don’t see the Michigan program ever rebounding to the way things used to be. I would’ve never said something like that two years ago.
The answer to Michigan’s problem is obviously easier said than done. I’m sure Michigan’s troubles are not from a lack of effort on Amaker’s part. The first thing Michigan needs to do is weaken MSU’s strangle-hold on the state’s top high school players. Whether this means bringing in assistants with ties to Flint and Saginaw or recruiting that area harder, something needs to be done along those lines. The result would be a slight drop-off in success at MSU. That would make it easier to entice a recruit to come to Ann Arbor. Remember, pre-Ed Martin scandal, Michigan was the place to be. MSU had to settle for seconds. At the same time, Amaker needs to extend Michigan’s recruiting scope to a national level. I admire his creativity in recruiting Canada and Boston over the last few years but the program needs a national identity. Amaker needs to recruit Ohio and Chicago with fervor. Lastly, Amaker needs to own Detroit. Detroit has been a breeding ground for Michigan’s basketball program in the past. In the last few years, no less than six difference-making recruits have come out of Detroit and ended up somewhere other than U of M. To sum it up, Michigan has to:
1). Own Detroit
2). Have, at least, a presence in Flint/Saginaw
3). Establish a national recruiting presence
I’m sure the response to this from most Michigan fans would be “duh” but clearly these things are not getting done or Michigan wouldn’t be in its current predicament. Success in college basketball is 90% recruiting and 10% coaching. Steve Fisher proved that. The Fab Five proved that. Teams can win on talent alone in college basketball. Sure, teams that can combine coaching and recruiting like Duke and MSU will be standing at the end of most tournaments but teams with top talent also do well in basketball. Amaker’s number one objective for the rest of his time at Michigan should be recruiting. That is the only way Michigan will return to prominence. I want Amaker to stick around and be responsible for Michigan’s return to glory. Unfortunately, if he doesn’t turn things around on the recruiting trail, Michigan would be better off bringing in someone like Bob Huggins who would immediately bring in top high school recruits on name alone. Huggins would get things done. Amaker needs to do the same. Recruiting well in college basketball is probably the most important job that any coach from any sport has. The margin for error is miniscule.
I’ll leave you with a list of top 100 players that Michigan has missed out on from its own state over the three most recent recruiting classes:
2005 Joe Crawford, Malik Hairston, Al Horford, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Marquise Gray, Eric Devendorf
2006 Tom Herzog, Tory Jackson, Ramar Smith
2007 Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, Darquavis Tucker
Monday, February 06, 2006
NCAA Tournament Projections (week of 2-6)
There are quite a few teams in college basketball that are seemingly attempting to play their way out of the NCAA Tournament. Xavier, Washington, Arizona, and Vanderbilt are just a few teams that have failed to match their early season successes. Stanford, California and Miami (FL) have made the best of their second seasons (conference play) after horrible starts to the season. I only made one adjustment to my projected at-large bids this week and that was replacing a struggling Vanderbilt team with an Iowa St. team that seems to be treading water. As bad as teams like Xavier have been, there isn’t a slew of teams with impressive resumes waiting to replace them. Just when I think a team like Temple is going to just up and steal a spot from a struggling team like Xavier, they lose to LaSalle. The season is starting to get interesting. I’m pay particular attention to Stanford’s quest at making the tournament with possibly the worst non-conference performance by an at-large team in tournament history. I’m also interested in seeing how Miami does in its next four games.
Here are the changes I made to the projected automatic bid winners:
OVC Murray St. replaces Samford
Atl. Sun Belmont replaces Lipscomb
Northeast Farleigh Dickinson replaces C. Connecticut St.
Big Sky N. Arizona replaces Montana
MAC Kent St. replaces Akron
Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
1 ACC Duke
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Connecticut
4 Big 12 Texas
5 Big Ten Illinois
6 Pac-10 Washington
7 MVC N. Iowa
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt W. Kentucky
16 Horizon Wisconsin-Mil.
17 MAAC Iona
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC IUPUI
20 Big West UC-Irvine
21 OVC Murray St.
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Bucknell
25 Southland Northwestern St.
26 Northeast Farleigh Dickinson
27 AEC Albany
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Seton Hall
33 At-Large Syracuse
34 At-Large Villanova
35 At-Large Pittsburgh
36 At-Large W. Virginia
37 At-Large Cincinnati
38 At-Large Marquette
39 At-Large Georgetown
40 At-Large NC State
41 At-Large Boston College
42 At-Large N. Carolina
43 At-Large Maryland
44 At-Large California
45 At-Large MSU
46 At-Large Indiana
47 At-Large Michigan
48 At-Large Ohio St.
49 At-Large Wisconsin
50 At-Large Iowa
51 At-Large Kentucky
52 At-Large Tennessee
53 At-Large LSU
54 At-Large Iowa St.
55 At-Large Oklahoma
56 At-Large Kansas
57 At-Large Colorado
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Arizona
60 At-Large UCLA
61 At-Large UAB
62 At-Large GW
63 At-Large Wichita St.
64 At-Large Creighton
65 At-Large S. Illinois
I haven't listed the 65 teams in order yet. I'll start doing that in a few weeks. The field that I have "projected" now assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That could push five, if not more, of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets.
The last seven teams in the tourney right now:
1. Xavier
I think it’s safe to say that Xavier doesn’t have a lot going for it right now. After playing “under the radar” for much of the season, the Musketeers have just about played their way out of the tournament field. Just two weeks ago, Xavier was 12-2 with a victory over Cincinnati and two narrow losses to Illinois and Creighton. Xavier followed its fast start with a 1-4 stretch including two losses to St. Louis. The only reason that I haven’t taken Xavier out of the Tournament all together is because of its incredibly easy league schedule to close out the season. It would not surprise me if Xavier goes 7-1 in its last eight games. Anything worse than that would likely put Xavier in the NIT.
RPI rating: 69
Pomeroy rating: 41
Quality wins: Cincinnati, @ St. Joseph’s
Bad losses: St. Louis, @ St. Louis,
2. Arkansas
Arkansas only played once this past week but it was a big win against S. Carolina. The Razorbacks are 15-6 on the season and 4-4 in the SEC. I think Arkansas can sneak into the tournament with an 8-8 league record. With Vanderbilt struggling, the SEC needs a fifth team. Arkansas and Alabama are the only other teams in the mix. The Razorbacks have impressive victories over Kansas and Missouri St. Unfortunately for Arkansas, its RPI rating is dangerously low and 8-8 in the SEC is no sure thing with games against all of the conferences best teams still to come. If Arkansas goes 3-1 in its next four games, then the tournament is a likely proposition.
RPI rating: 67
Pomeroy rating: 36
Quality wins: Kansas, Missouri St., Vanderbilt
Bad losses: @ Mississippi St.
3. Cincinnati
I don’t think Cincinnati will hold on to make the tournament. I have to give them the benefit of the doubt right now considering its RPI rating and resume to date. The Bearcats have beaten Vanderbilt and Marquette on the road and LSU at a neutral site. As impressive is that is, the bigger issue is how Cincy will manage to finish above .500 in the Big East. The remaining conference slate is brutal. The Bearcats would be lucky to go 3-4 in their last seven conference games which would only be good enough for 7-9 on the season. That probably won’t cut it unless their RPI is in the top 35.
RPI rating: 35
Pomeroy rating: 48
Quality wins: @ Vanderbilt, @ Marquette, and LSU (neutral site)
Bad losses: Dayton
4. Iowa St.
I took Iowa St. out of my projected field last week only to put the Cyclones right back in this week. Like Arkansas, Iowa St. only played one game this week but it was possibly the biggest game of the season for the Cyclones. They beat Colorado to bring their conference record to 4-4. With a relatively easy game against Kansas St up next, Iowa St. should be 14-7 overall and 5-4 in the conference heading into a big rematch against Kansas. Iowa St’s non-conference success would be enough to put it into the tournament with a .500 conference record. Anything less would likely mean an NIT bid considering how weak the Big XII is this year.
RPI rating: 53
Pomeroy rating: 54
Quality wins: Iowa, N. Iowa, Northwestern St., Colorado
Bad losses: Fresno St., @ Texas Tech, Texas A&M
5. S. Illinois
At this point in the season, it looks like the Missouri Valley Conference will get at least three teams into the tournament with the possibility of a fourth. S. Illinois lost a heart breaker on Saturday to Wichita St. but that wasn’t the loss that crippled its resume. The Salukis lost to conference bottom dweller Indiana St. That loss could also be the game that costs S. Illinois a shot at the conference title. Despite going 0-2 last week, S. Illinois has a very good RPI score and an equally impressive conference record (9-4) in the MVC. All of that means nothing if S. Illinois loses at home to Missouri St. this week. My prediction is that the loser of that game will not make the tournament. Both teams should look at that game as an elimination game as far as contending for an at-large birth.
RPI rating: 39
Pomeroy rating: 58
Quality wins: Kent St., Creighton, Bradley, Wichita St., @ Murray St.
Bad losses: Indiana St., Monmouth (neutral site), @Alaska-Anchorage, @St. Louis
6. Washington
Washington is sitting a little prettier than its RPI would indicate. The Huskies are at .500 in the Pac-10 including their current three-game losing streak. If Washington loses to USC on Thursday, they will be on the outside looking in. However, assuming the Huskies beat USC and take advantage of their remaining weak Pac-10 schedule, they will make the tournament on the strength of victories over Gonzaga, UCLA, and Air Force.
RPI rating: 59
Pomeroy rating: 35
Quality wins: Gonzaga, UCLA, and Air Force
Bad losses: Washington St., @ Washington St.
7. Arizona
If RPI counted for everything, Arizona would have no reason to worry. However, the RPI only adds or subtracts to a team’s record and resume. Arizona is at a tournament unfriendly 13-9 on the season. The good news for the Wildcats is that they don’t have to play UCLA anymore this season. Their talent should be enough to go on a mini-run to finish the Pac-10 schedule. Arizona has played a brutal schedule which should look good to the selection committee. However, there is a point at which a record can be so bad as to override computer numbers and a tough schedule. Arizona would do well by not losing more than two more games in the Pac-10.
RPI rating: 17
Pomeroy rating: 42
Quality wins: Kansas (neutral site), Virginia, W. Kentucky, @ Washington, California
Bad losses: @ Houston, @ Oregon St., @ Oregon, @ USC
The teams waiting in the wings:
1. Missouri St.
This spot should really be a joint venture shared equally by Missouri St. and S. Illinois. These two teams are the fourth and fifth teams in the MVC. It just remains to be seen which will be which. Conveniently, they play each other on Tuesday. Unfortunately for these two teams, each follows this showdown with a game on the road against an MVC powerhouse. Missouri St. has to travel to N. Iowa while S. Illinois has to play at Creighton. If one of these teams could somehow go 2-0 this week, then that would likely be enough to wrap up a fourth bid for the MVC. If one of these teams goes 0-2 this week, then that would essentially eliminate that team from at-large consideration.
RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 33
Quality wins: S. Illinois, Bradley
Bad losses: none
2. Utah St.
After having Nevada penciled in as receiving the WAC’s automatic bid from day one, Utah St. has made things interesting. As it stands now, it’s about a 50/50 proposition for both teams. Utah St. beat Nevada on the road earlier in the season. If Nevada doesn’t win the WAC tournament, it will likely garner strong consideration for an at-large bid. Utah St., on the other hand, will likely pay the price for an underwhelming non-conference slate if it doesn't win the WAC's automatic bid. At the very least, Utah St. should plan on winning the regular season title. Anything less would likely mean Utah St’s impressive record is heading to the NIT.
RPI rating: 40
Pomeroy rating: 46
Quality wins: @ Nevada
Bad losses: @ Middle Tennessee, @ Utah, @ Fresno St., @ New Mexico St.
3. Vanderbilt
The Commodores are embarking on their annual late season collapse. As true as college basketball is played indoors, Vanderbilt chokes down the stretch. I like Vanderbilt. They have no business being competitive in college basketball yet they seem to do it very well. My first memory of Vanderbilt basketball was when Billy McCaffrey transferred from Duke. Given my extreme distaste for Duke, McCaffrey instantly became one of my favorite players. Vanderbilt reaped the benefits with an impressive run in the SEC. There are still remnants of my McCaffrey-born affinity for Vanderbilt even today. That probably explains why I’m always heartbroken to see everything begin to unravel as the SEC season roles along. Vandy is 1-5 in its last six games (all in the SEC). Its RPI has free-fallen to 64. With big games against Florida, Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee remaining, it doesn’t look good. Bummer.
RPI rating: 64
Pomeroy rating: 60
Quality wins: @ Georgetown, @ Kentucky
Bad losses: @ Georgia Tech, Georgia, S. Carolina
4. NC Wilmington
I feel for the Colonial Athletic Association. This conference has been better than anyone expected which is evidenced by pre-season favorite Old Dominion’s current fourth place standing. The CAA will probably not receive an at-large bid unless George Mason doesn't win the conference tournament. However, I think they deserve one. NC Wilmington, along with Hofstra, has solid computer ratings to go along with impressive overall records. While Hofstra may have the better argument come seasons end, NC Wilmington has a better RPI and a .5 game lead in the standings. While these teams are destined for NIT births, I hope the selection committee at least considers a second team from the CAA
RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 62
Quality wins: George Mason
Bad losses: College of Charleston, @ E. Carolina
5. Stanford
Stanford is going to test all of the conventional wisdom as to what constitutes a tournament-worthy resume. The Cardinal has some of the worst losses by any big-time college basketball team this season. They lost to UC-Davis, UC-Irvine, and Montana just to name a few. However, Stanford has somehow turned its season around with an 8-3 record in the Pac-10. Stanford hasn’t beaten a team with an RPI higher than 50. Stanford has lost to four teams with an RPI lower than 100. My guess is that the next two games will decide Stanford’s fate. First up is a conference showdown at California. The winner will be 9-3 in the conference which would be all but a lock for the tournament. Next-up is a season-making showdown at Gonzaga. If Stanford wins both games, you can punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament. An 0-2 showing would bring Stanford’s season record to 12-9 which might be too mediocre for a +.500 conference record to save.
RPI rating: 79
Pomeroy rating: 79
Quality wins: @ UC-Davis, UC-Irvine, @ Montana, Va. Tech (neutral site), @ USC
Bad losses: Washington, California
6. Miami (FL)
Miami’s season is divided into two distinct halves. The first half is very bad. The second half is very good. How good the second half is will decide if the Hurricanes sneak into the tournament. At 6-3 in the ACC, Miami stands in third place in one of the top conferences in America. Miami has beaten N. Carolina and Maryland to solidify itself as a team to be reckoned with this season. However, Miami’s next four games will make or break its season. A brutal stretch against NC State, N. Carolina, B. College and Duke looms over the next two weeks. A 2-2 stretch would almost certainly send Miami to the NCAA tournament. Even a 1-3 stretch would keep its hopes alive. However, 0-4 is a possibility which would ruin Miami’s season.
RPI rating: 61
Pomeroy rating: 47
Quality wins: Maryland, @ N. Carolina, @ FSU
Bad losses: none
7. Louisville
The Cardinals will probably not make the tournament. That said, they saved their season by holding off a game Notre Dame team this past weekend. Louisville moved to 3-6 in the Big East which leaves a lot to be desired. The Cardinals have seven conference games remaining. At the very least, they have to go 4-3. That would at least keep Louisville in the mix at 7-9. In the toughest conference in college basketball, 7-9 might be good enough to get into the tourney. My guess is that it wouldn’t be especially with the Big East already having nine possible births. Louisville would be the tenth. I don’t see it happening but an upset over Uconn or W. Virginia could make it happen.
RPI rating: 62
Pomeroy rating: 40
Quality wins: Akron, @ Miami (FL), Cincinnati
Bad losses: @ St. John’s
8. Temple
Temple blew its season this week. After a three game winning streak that featured victories over Maryland and Xavier, Temple was steamrolling towards an at-large bid in a weak A-10 conference. However, Temple forgot to show up against LaSalle. I would’ve had Temple in my projected field had they simply beaten a mediocre LaSalle team. Instead, they moved to 12-8 on the season. For some reason, I’m annoyed by Temple’s loss. I think it’s because Temple was such a long shot when they stood at 6-6 earlier in the season. They fought back from such a poor start to seemingly grab an at-large birth. I think Temple was proving that all things are possible. Unfortunately for them, LaSalle proved the same point.
RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 71
Quality wins: Miami (FL), Alabama, Xavier, Maryland
Bad losses: @ Auburn, @ Massachusetts, @ LaSalle
9. Hofstra
Hofstra’s non-conference resume is about as unimpressive as they come. However, Hofstra has come out on fire in the CAA. The Pride has beaten pre-season favorite Old Dominion twice and NC Wilmington. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Hofstra to win the CAA’s automatic bid. Even if they don’t, it’s possible for Hofstra to finish the season at 22-5 with a top 40 RPI. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t see the CAA getting two bids but Hofstra is at least worth a look.
RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 83
Quality wins: Old Dominion, @ Old Dominion, NC Wilmington
Bad losses: @Towson, @ Northeastern
10 FSU
11 USC
12 Nebraska
13 Akron
14 Alabama
15 Old Dominion
16 Bradley
17 Virginia
18 BYU
A look at the RPI
Lowest rated teams projected in the tournament (at-large)
#69 Xavier
#67 Arkansas
#59 Washington
#54 California
#53 Iowa St.
#51 Kansas
#49 Colorado
#44 UAB
#41 Maryland
#39 S. Illinois
#38 GW
#35 Cincinnati
#32 Kentucky
#31 Marquette
#30 Syracuse
#29 W. Virginia
#28 B. College
#27 Seton Hall
Highest rated teams projected out of the tournament (at-large)
#36 Missouri St.
#40 Utah St.
#43 NC Wilmington
#45 St. Joseph's
#46 Temple
#48 Old Dominion
#50 Alabama
#52 Bradley
#55 Virginia
#57 San Diego St.
#58 Hofstra
#60 BYU
#61 Miami (FL)
#62 Louisville
#63 Clemson
#64 Vanderbilt
#65 Virginia Commonwealth
#66 Akron
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (5)
Duke
NC State
Boston College
N. Carolina
Maryland
SEC (5)
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
Big East (9)
UCONN
Syracuse
Villanova
Pittsburgh
W. Virginia
Cincinnati
Marquette
Georgetown
Seton Hall
Big 12 (5)
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Colorado
Iowa St.
Big Ten (7)
Illinois
MSU
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Iowa
Pac-10 (4)
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
California
C-USA (2)
Memphis
UAB
A-10 (2)
Xavier
GW
MVC (4)
N. Iowa
Creighton
Wichita St.
S. Illinois
The Un-luck of the Irish
After discussing the incredible string of last second losses that Notre Dame has experienced this season, I didn’t realize that I would be revisiting the same topic just a week later. Unbelievably, Notre Dame lost another two games this week in which one was an overtime loss and the other was a one-point loss. Notre Dame has now lost its last nine games by a total of 30 points. Even more amazing, at the end of regulation of Notre Dame’s lost nine losses, it has been down by a combined 21 points. For its efforts, Notre Dame stands at 1-8 in Big East play and 10-10 on the season. Here is the most impressive unimpressive resume you’ll ever see:
Michigan 71 Notre Dame 67
Pittsburgh 100 Notre Dame 97 (2 OT)
DePaul 73 Notre Dame 67
Syracuse 88 Notre Dame 82
Marquette 67 Notre Dame 65
Georgetown 85 Notre Dame 82 (2 OT)
Villanova 82 Notre Dame 80
W. Virginia 71 Notre Dame 70
Louisville 89 Notre Dame 86 (OT)
LSU is the Anti-Notre Dame
LSU has proven that a string of close losses does not have to mean a lost season. All six of LSU’s losses have been by five points or less (1, 4, 3, 2, 1, and 5 respectively. While Notre Dame is toiling in oblivion with nine close losses, LSU has suffered a similar string of last second losses but has managed to go 7-1 in the SEC. LSU has virtually locked up an at-large bid despite the following heartbreaking strong of games:
Houston 84 LSU 83
N. Iowa 54 LSU 50
Cincinnati 75 LSU 72
Ohio St. 78 LSU 76
Uconn 67 LSU 66
Alabama 67 LSU 62
Here are the changes I made to the projected automatic bid winners:
OVC Murray St. replaces Samford
Atl. Sun Belmont replaces Lipscomb
Northeast Farleigh Dickinson replaces C. Connecticut St.
Big Sky N. Arizona replaces Montana
MAC Kent St. replaces Akron
Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
1 ACC Duke
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Connecticut
4 Big 12 Texas
5 Big Ten Illinois
6 Pac-10 Washington
7 MVC N. Iowa
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt W. Kentucky
16 Horizon Wisconsin-Mil.
17 MAAC Iona
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC IUPUI
20 Big West UC-Irvine
21 OVC Murray St.
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Bucknell
25 Southland Northwestern St.
26 Northeast Farleigh Dickinson
27 AEC Albany
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Seton Hall
33 At-Large Syracuse
34 At-Large Villanova
35 At-Large Pittsburgh
36 At-Large W. Virginia
37 At-Large Cincinnati
38 At-Large Marquette
39 At-Large Georgetown
40 At-Large NC State
41 At-Large Boston College
42 At-Large N. Carolina
43 At-Large Maryland
44 At-Large California
45 At-Large MSU
46 At-Large Indiana
47 At-Large Michigan
48 At-Large Ohio St.
49 At-Large Wisconsin
50 At-Large Iowa
51 At-Large Kentucky
52 At-Large Tennessee
53 At-Large LSU
54 At-Large Iowa St.
55 At-Large Oklahoma
56 At-Large Kansas
57 At-Large Colorado
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Arizona
60 At-Large UCLA
61 At-Large UAB
62 At-Large GW
63 At-Large Wichita St.
64 At-Large Creighton
65 At-Large S. Illinois
I haven't listed the 65 teams in order yet. I'll start doing that in a few weeks. The field that I have "projected" now assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That could push five, if not more, of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets.
The last seven teams in the tourney right now:
1. Xavier
I think it’s safe to say that Xavier doesn’t have a lot going for it right now. After playing “under the radar” for much of the season, the Musketeers have just about played their way out of the tournament field. Just two weeks ago, Xavier was 12-2 with a victory over Cincinnati and two narrow losses to Illinois and Creighton. Xavier followed its fast start with a 1-4 stretch including two losses to St. Louis. The only reason that I haven’t taken Xavier out of the Tournament all together is because of its incredibly easy league schedule to close out the season. It would not surprise me if Xavier goes 7-1 in its last eight games. Anything worse than that would likely put Xavier in the NIT.
RPI rating: 69
Pomeroy rating: 41
Quality wins: Cincinnati, @ St. Joseph’s
Bad losses: St. Louis, @ St. Louis,
2. Arkansas
Arkansas only played once this past week but it was a big win against S. Carolina. The Razorbacks are 15-6 on the season and 4-4 in the SEC. I think Arkansas can sneak into the tournament with an 8-8 league record. With Vanderbilt struggling, the SEC needs a fifth team. Arkansas and Alabama are the only other teams in the mix. The Razorbacks have impressive victories over Kansas and Missouri St. Unfortunately for Arkansas, its RPI rating is dangerously low and 8-8 in the SEC is no sure thing with games against all of the conferences best teams still to come. If Arkansas goes 3-1 in its next four games, then the tournament is a likely proposition.
RPI rating: 67
Pomeroy rating: 36
Quality wins: Kansas, Missouri St., Vanderbilt
Bad losses: @ Mississippi St.
3. Cincinnati
I don’t think Cincinnati will hold on to make the tournament. I have to give them the benefit of the doubt right now considering its RPI rating and resume to date. The Bearcats have beaten Vanderbilt and Marquette on the road and LSU at a neutral site. As impressive is that is, the bigger issue is how Cincy will manage to finish above .500 in the Big East. The remaining conference slate is brutal. The Bearcats would be lucky to go 3-4 in their last seven conference games which would only be good enough for 7-9 on the season. That probably won’t cut it unless their RPI is in the top 35.
RPI rating: 35
Pomeroy rating: 48
Quality wins: @ Vanderbilt, @ Marquette, and LSU (neutral site)
Bad losses: Dayton
4. Iowa St.
I took Iowa St. out of my projected field last week only to put the Cyclones right back in this week. Like Arkansas, Iowa St. only played one game this week but it was possibly the biggest game of the season for the Cyclones. They beat Colorado to bring their conference record to 4-4. With a relatively easy game against Kansas St up next, Iowa St. should be 14-7 overall and 5-4 in the conference heading into a big rematch against Kansas. Iowa St’s non-conference success would be enough to put it into the tournament with a .500 conference record. Anything less would likely mean an NIT bid considering how weak the Big XII is this year.
RPI rating: 53
Pomeroy rating: 54
Quality wins: Iowa, N. Iowa, Northwestern St., Colorado
Bad losses: Fresno St., @ Texas Tech, Texas A&M
5. S. Illinois
At this point in the season, it looks like the Missouri Valley Conference will get at least three teams into the tournament with the possibility of a fourth. S. Illinois lost a heart breaker on Saturday to Wichita St. but that wasn’t the loss that crippled its resume. The Salukis lost to conference bottom dweller Indiana St. That loss could also be the game that costs S. Illinois a shot at the conference title. Despite going 0-2 last week, S. Illinois has a very good RPI score and an equally impressive conference record (9-4) in the MVC. All of that means nothing if S. Illinois loses at home to Missouri St. this week. My prediction is that the loser of that game will not make the tournament. Both teams should look at that game as an elimination game as far as contending for an at-large birth.
RPI rating: 39
Pomeroy rating: 58
Quality wins: Kent St., Creighton, Bradley, Wichita St., @ Murray St.
Bad losses: Indiana St., Monmouth (neutral site), @Alaska-Anchorage, @St. Louis
6. Washington
Washington is sitting a little prettier than its RPI would indicate. The Huskies are at .500 in the Pac-10 including their current three-game losing streak. If Washington loses to USC on Thursday, they will be on the outside looking in. However, assuming the Huskies beat USC and take advantage of their remaining weak Pac-10 schedule, they will make the tournament on the strength of victories over Gonzaga, UCLA, and Air Force.
RPI rating: 59
Pomeroy rating: 35
Quality wins: Gonzaga, UCLA, and Air Force
Bad losses: Washington St., @ Washington St.
7. Arizona
If RPI counted for everything, Arizona would have no reason to worry. However, the RPI only adds or subtracts to a team’s record and resume. Arizona is at a tournament unfriendly 13-9 on the season. The good news for the Wildcats is that they don’t have to play UCLA anymore this season. Their talent should be enough to go on a mini-run to finish the Pac-10 schedule. Arizona has played a brutal schedule which should look good to the selection committee. However, there is a point at which a record can be so bad as to override computer numbers and a tough schedule. Arizona would do well by not losing more than two more games in the Pac-10.
RPI rating: 17
Pomeroy rating: 42
Quality wins: Kansas (neutral site), Virginia, W. Kentucky, @ Washington, California
Bad losses: @ Houston, @ Oregon St., @ Oregon, @ USC
The teams waiting in the wings:
1. Missouri St.
This spot should really be a joint venture shared equally by Missouri St. and S. Illinois. These two teams are the fourth and fifth teams in the MVC. It just remains to be seen which will be which. Conveniently, they play each other on Tuesday. Unfortunately for these two teams, each follows this showdown with a game on the road against an MVC powerhouse. Missouri St. has to travel to N. Iowa while S. Illinois has to play at Creighton. If one of these teams could somehow go 2-0 this week, then that would likely be enough to wrap up a fourth bid for the MVC. If one of these teams goes 0-2 this week, then that would essentially eliminate that team from at-large consideration.
RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 33
Quality wins: S. Illinois, Bradley
Bad losses: none
2. Utah St.
After having Nevada penciled in as receiving the WAC’s automatic bid from day one, Utah St. has made things interesting. As it stands now, it’s about a 50/50 proposition for both teams. Utah St. beat Nevada on the road earlier in the season. If Nevada doesn’t win the WAC tournament, it will likely garner strong consideration for an at-large bid. Utah St., on the other hand, will likely pay the price for an underwhelming non-conference slate if it doesn't win the WAC's automatic bid. At the very least, Utah St. should plan on winning the regular season title. Anything less would likely mean Utah St’s impressive record is heading to the NIT.
RPI rating: 40
Pomeroy rating: 46
Quality wins: @ Nevada
Bad losses: @ Middle Tennessee, @ Utah, @ Fresno St., @ New Mexico St.
3. Vanderbilt
The Commodores are embarking on their annual late season collapse. As true as college basketball is played indoors, Vanderbilt chokes down the stretch. I like Vanderbilt. They have no business being competitive in college basketball yet they seem to do it very well. My first memory of Vanderbilt basketball was when Billy McCaffrey transferred from Duke. Given my extreme distaste for Duke, McCaffrey instantly became one of my favorite players. Vanderbilt reaped the benefits with an impressive run in the SEC. There are still remnants of my McCaffrey-born affinity for Vanderbilt even today. That probably explains why I’m always heartbroken to see everything begin to unravel as the SEC season roles along. Vandy is 1-5 in its last six games (all in the SEC). Its RPI has free-fallen to 64. With big games against Florida, Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee remaining, it doesn’t look good. Bummer.
RPI rating: 64
Pomeroy rating: 60
Quality wins: @ Georgetown, @ Kentucky
Bad losses: @ Georgia Tech, Georgia, S. Carolina
4. NC Wilmington
I feel for the Colonial Athletic Association. This conference has been better than anyone expected which is evidenced by pre-season favorite Old Dominion’s current fourth place standing. The CAA will probably not receive an at-large bid unless George Mason doesn't win the conference tournament. However, I think they deserve one. NC Wilmington, along with Hofstra, has solid computer ratings to go along with impressive overall records. While Hofstra may have the better argument come seasons end, NC Wilmington has a better RPI and a .5 game lead in the standings. While these teams are destined for NIT births, I hope the selection committee at least considers a second team from the CAA
RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 62
Quality wins: George Mason
Bad losses: College of Charleston, @ E. Carolina
5. Stanford
Stanford is going to test all of the conventional wisdom as to what constitutes a tournament-worthy resume. The Cardinal has some of the worst losses by any big-time college basketball team this season. They lost to UC-Davis, UC-Irvine, and Montana just to name a few. However, Stanford has somehow turned its season around with an 8-3 record in the Pac-10. Stanford hasn’t beaten a team with an RPI higher than 50. Stanford has lost to four teams with an RPI lower than 100. My guess is that the next two games will decide Stanford’s fate. First up is a conference showdown at California. The winner will be 9-3 in the conference which would be all but a lock for the tournament. Next-up is a season-making showdown at Gonzaga. If Stanford wins both games, you can punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament. An 0-2 showing would bring Stanford’s season record to 12-9 which might be too mediocre for a +.500 conference record to save.
RPI rating: 79
Pomeroy rating: 79
Quality wins: @ UC-Davis, UC-Irvine, @ Montana, Va. Tech (neutral site), @ USC
Bad losses: Washington, California
6. Miami (FL)
Miami’s season is divided into two distinct halves. The first half is very bad. The second half is very good. How good the second half is will decide if the Hurricanes sneak into the tournament. At 6-3 in the ACC, Miami stands in third place in one of the top conferences in America. Miami has beaten N. Carolina and Maryland to solidify itself as a team to be reckoned with this season. However, Miami’s next four games will make or break its season. A brutal stretch against NC State, N. Carolina, B. College and Duke looms over the next two weeks. A 2-2 stretch would almost certainly send Miami to the NCAA tournament. Even a 1-3 stretch would keep its hopes alive. However, 0-4 is a possibility which would ruin Miami’s season.
RPI rating: 61
Pomeroy rating: 47
Quality wins: Maryland, @ N. Carolina, @ FSU
Bad losses: none
7. Louisville
The Cardinals will probably not make the tournament. That said, they saved their season by holding off a game Notre Dame team this past weekend. Louisville moved to 3-6 in the Big East which leaves a lot to be desired. The Cardinals have seven conference games remaining. At the very least, they have to go 4-3. That would at least keep Louisville in the mix at 7-9. In the toughest conference in college basketball, 7-9 might be good enough to get into the tourney. My guess is that it wouldn’t be especially with the Big East already having nine possible births. Louisville would be the tenth. I don’t see it happening but an upset over Uconn or W. Virginia could make it happen.
RPI rating: 62
Pomeroy rating: 40
Quality wins: Akron, @ Miami (FL), Cincinnati
Bad losses: @ St. John’s
8. Temple
Temple blew its season this week. After a three game winning streak that featured victories over Maryland and Xavier, Temple was steamrolling towards an at-large bid in a weak A-10 conference. However, Temple forgot to show up against LaSalle. I would’ve had Temple in my projected field had they simply beaten a mediocre LaSalle team. Instead, they moved to 12-8 on the season. For some reason, I’m annoyed by Temple’s loss. I think it’s because Temple was such a long shot when they stood at 6-6 earlier in the season. They fought back from such a poor start to seemingly grab an at-large birth. I think Temple was proving that all things are possible. Unfortunately for them, LaSalle proved the same point.
RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 71
Quality wins: Miami (FL), Alabama, Xavier, Maryland
Bad losses: @ Auburn, @ Massachusetts, @ LaSalle
9. Hofstra
Hofstra’s non-conference resume is about as unimpressive as they come. However, Hofstra has come out on fire in the CAA. The Pride has beaten pre-season favorite Old Dominion twice and NC Wilmington. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Hofstra to win the CAA’s automatic bid. Even if they don’t, it’s possible for Hofstra to finish the season at 22-5 with a top 40 RPI. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t see the CAA getting two bids but Hofstra is at least worth a look.
RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 83
Quality wins: Old Dominion, @ Old Dominion, NC Wilmington
Bad losses: @Towson, @ Northeastern
10 FSU
11 USC
12 Nebraska
13 Akron
14 Alabama
15 Old Dominion
16 Bradley
17 Virginia
18 BYU
A look at the RPI
Lowest rated teams projected in the tournament (at-large)
#69 Xavier
#67 Arkansas
#59 Washington
#54 California
#53 Iowa St.
#51 Kansas
#49 Colorado
#44 UAB
#41 Maryland
#39 S. Illinois
#38 GW
#35 Cincinnati
#32 Kentucky
#31 Marquette
#30 Syracuse
#29 W. Virginia
#28 B. College
#27 Seton Hall
Highest rated teams projected out of the tournament (at-large)
#36 Missouri St.
#40 Utah St.
#43 NC Wilmington
#45 St. Joseph's
#46 Temple
#48 Old Dominion
#50 Alabama
#52 Bradley
#55 Virginia
#57 San Diego St.
#58 Hofstra
#60 BYU
#61 Miami (FL)
#62 Louisville
#63 Clemson
#64 Vanderbilt
#65 Virginia Commonwealth
#66 Akron
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (5)
Duke
NC State
Boston College
N. Carolina
Maryland
SEC (5)
Florida
Kentucky
LSU
Tennessee
Arkansas
Big East (9)
UCONN
Syracuse
Villanova
Pittsburgh
W. Virginia
Cincinnati
Marquette
Georgetown
Seton Hall
Big 12 (5)
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Colorado
Iowa St.
Big Ten (7)
Illinois
MSU
Indiana
Michigan
Ohio St.
Wisconsin
Iowa
Pac-10 (4)
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
California
C-USA (2)
Memphis
UAB
A-10 (2)
Xavier
GW
MVC (4)
N. Iowa
Creighton
Wichita St.
S. Illinois
The Un-luck of the Irish
After discussing the incredible string of last second losses that Notre Dame has experienced this season, I didn’t realize that I would be revisiting the same topic just a week later. Unbelievably, Notre Dame lost another two games this week in which one was an overtime loss and the other was a one-point loss. Notre Dame has now lost its last nine games by a total of 30 points. Even more amazing, at the end of regulation of Notre Dame’s lost nine losses, it has been down by a combined 21 points. For its efforts, Notre Dame stands at 1-8 in Big East play and 10-10 on the season. Here is the most impressive unimpressive resume you’ll ever see:
Michigan 71 Notre Dame 67
Pittsburgh 100 Notre Dame 97 (2 OT)
DePaul 73 Notre Dame 67
Syracuse 88 Notre Dame 82
Marquette 67 Notre Dame 65
Georgetown 85 Notre Dame 82 (2 OT)
Villanova 82 Notre Dame 80
W. Virginia 71 Notre Dame 70
Louisville 89 Notre Dame 86 (OT)
LSU is the Anti-Notre Dame
LSU has proven that a string of close losses does not have to mean a lost season. All six of LSU’s losses have been by five points or less (1, 4, 3, 2, 1, and 5 respectively. While Notre Dame is toiling in oblivion with nine close losses, LSU has suffered a similar string of last second losses but has managed to go 7-1 in the SEC. LSU has virtually locked up an at-large bid despite the following heartbreaking strong of games:
Houston 84 LSU 83
N. Iowa 54 LSU 50
Cincinnati 75 LSU 72
Ohio St. 78 LSU 76
Uconn 67 LSU 66
Alabama 67 LSU 62
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Marinelli is no noodle
I let the Rod Marinelli hiring marinate in my brain for a while so I could soak in all of the positives and/or negatives he brings to the Lions. Over the last two weeks, my feelings have pretty much run the gamut. The only thought that didn’t cross my mind was, “this is an awful hiring.” I suppose that is sufficient enough evidence to convince me that it was a decent hire. Obviously, any time your franchise brings in a first-time head coach, it brings up memories of Marty Mornhinweg. That aside, the Lions needed some new blood. They needed someone who would come to Detroit and get results from underachieving players. Marinelli seems like the kind of guy that will get results or die trying.
Matt Millen was a hard-nosed, physical football player. He went away from that philosophy in hiring Mornhinweg and then Steve Mariucci. He went even further away from that philosophy by drafting four straight offensive skill positions with top 10 picks. Marinelli is everything that Millen’s tenure hasn’t been. He’s defensive-minded. He’s organized. He’s professional. The hiring of Marinelli might signify Millen’s realization that the adage of building championship football teams through the defensive and offensive lines actually holds merit. If anyone doubts that, look no further than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks. They have arguably the two best offensive lines in the league. They were both in the top five in the NFL in rushing yards for and against. To his credit, Millen did steal Shaun Rogers in the second round of the 2001 draft but Rogers stands as Millen’s only above-average defender obtained via the draft. Millen struck out with Jeff Backus on the offensive line in his only attempt at addressing the lines with a first round pick. That probably speaks ill of Millen’s eye for talent more so than a lack of desire to bring in skilled lineman. Nevertheless, Millen needed to pick a completely different course for the franchise and I believe the hiring of Marinelli did just that.
The Lions appear to be making a conscientious effort to bring in a respected group of coaches and coordinators. Donnie Henderson accepted the defensive coordinator position which is somewhat of a coup considering Henderson has been an up and coming head coaching candidate for the last few years. As good as it is to have Henderson on board; my guess is that the Lions choice for offensive coordinator will have a bigger impact on the success of the franchise. Marinelli will pretty much call the shots on defense so Henderson’s impact will probably be felt in motivation and reinforcement rather than in game-planning. Millen has taken a lot of heat for drafting three straight wide receivers with high first round picks. In hindsight, that turned out to be a terrible strategy but the result wasn’t inevitable. If the picks had performed the way every draft expert and talent evaluator predicted, critics would be singing an entirely different tune. The breakdown was two-fold. The players haven’t lived up to expectations but at the same time, the coaching staff has been abysmal at offensive game-planning. When Millen invested valuable draft picks on receivers, I’m sure he envisioned an on-field return similar to that of the Indianapolis Colts. Instead, his coaching staff gave him something closer to a high school game-plan. If Millen can bring in an offensive coordinator that can make use of that first round talent, and god forbid, make those players better, those picks could still come to fruition.
The only rumor I’ve heard so far about possible offensive coordinators coming to Detroit is Mike Martz. For those of you that are new to my blog, I’ll reiterate that I don’t care too much for Martz as a football mind nor do I like what I’ve seen with regards to his personality. The Lions bringing in Martz as offensive coordinator would be the equivalent of me hiring Kenneth Lay as my investment representative. That’s just something I wouldn’t do. The Rams were a dynasty in the making in 1999. They destroyed teams with a proficient offense and an aggressive defense. Their team was loaded with young, superstar talent. Dick Vermeil retired. Enter Mark Martz and the rest is history. The Rams have been a bumbling mess ever since. Granted, Martz would have far less control as Offensive Coordinator of the Lions than he did as head coach of the Rams. As a result, he would find it more difficult to single handily ruin the Lions as he did the Rams. Even if Martz somehow reformed his personal and professional philosophies and was guaranteed to be the Rasheed Wallace of reformed NFL coaches; that still doesn’t address the fact that Martz is extremely overrated. In the last six years, the Rams never fared better than 22nd in the NFL in rushing attempts. In fact, they finished 26th, 22nd, 32nd, 28th, 30th, and 29th respectively. That doesn’t mesh too well with the idea that championships are won on the offensive and defensive lines. The laughably low number of rush attempts per game could at least somewhat be defended if the Rams were below-average at the running back position. As everyone knows, the Rams have one of the greatest running backs in NFL history in Marshall Faulk. For the last two years, the Rams have had both Faulk and emerging superstar Steven Jackson. Yet, Martz continued to ignore the running game. One of the most frustrating aspects of Mariucci’s tenure was his penchant for ignoring Kevin Jones. Martz would only make the problem worse.
The Patriots have been dubbed a pass-happy team during their Super Bowl runs. Former Offensive Coordinator Charlie Weiss was lauded for his precision-passing game and propensity to throw at any time. Even with Weiss’ affection for the passing game, the Patriots were always mindful of the running game. Over the last five years, the Patriots finished 8th, 28th, 12th, 5th, and 18th in rushing attempts. Despite Weiss’ pass-oriented offense, he never abandoned the need for balance. Martz clearly has had no sense of balance in his play-calling and that certainly wouldn’t change just because he’s coming to Detroit.
I know a lot of people in Detroit probably want Martz on board because he has attained a reputation as an offensive genius. The media has been far more kind to Martz than his record has deserved. There are various sites on the internet that pay tribute to Martz’s miscues over the last six years. Martz suffered a heart-attack this season. When he expressed interest in returning early the Rams fired him. Keep in mind that the Rams have Marc Bulger, Tory Holt, Issac Bruce, Marshall Faulk, Orlando Pace and Steven Jackson on offense. If the Rams didn’t want an offensive “genius” to run that team, then that should speak volumes for how good of a coach Martz really is. If he didn’t run the ball with Faulk, Jackson and Orlando Pace, then he won’t run the ball with Kevin Jones. I guess my point is that Martz has been a disaster as a head coach. If given the choice, I would probably rather have Lloyd Carr calling the Lions offense over Martz. I can’t believe I just said that.
Anyhow, I like the Marinelli hire. The Lions will be aggressive and effective on defense for the first time in my lifetime. The unanswered question is how the offensive will pan out. Millen should bring in a guy with the same philosophies as Charlie Weiss. The key to an effective offense is balance and a reliable running game. The Lions haven’t had that since Scott Mitchell took the same magic potion that Brady Anderson took. Millen’s biggest decision will be the next one he makes. My guess is that whoever his choice for Offensive Coordinator is will be the deciding factor in whether Marinelli ends up being a good hire or not. For those of you that are “up in arms” about the Marinelli hire, it could be worse. You could be a Buffalo Bills fan. Apparently, they were impressed with the way Dick Jauron gracefully went 1-4 without eliciting any semblance of a team pulse after taking over for Mariucci.
Matt Millen was a hard-nosed, physical football player. He went away from that philosophy in hiring Mornhinweg and then Steve Mariucci. He went even further away from that philosophy by drafting four straight offensive skill positions with top 10 picks. Marinelli is everything that Millen’s tenure hasn’t been. He’s defensive-minded. He’s organized. He’s professional. The hiring of Marinelli might signify Millen’s realization that the adage of building championship football teams through the defensive and offensive lines actually holds merit. If anyone doubts that, look no further than the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks. They have arguably the two best offensive lines in the league. They were both in the top five in the NFL in rushing yards for and against. To his credit, Millen did steal Shaun Rogers in the second round of the 2001 draft but Rogers stands as Millen’s only above-average defender obtained via the draft. Millen struck out with Jeff Backus on the offensive line in his only attempt at addressing the lines with a first round pick. That probably speaks ill of Millen’s eye for talent more so than a lack of desire to bring in skilled lineman. Nevertheless, Millen needed to pick a completely different course for the franchise and I believe the hiring of Marinelli did just that.
The Lions appear to be making a conscientious effort to bring in a respected group of coaches and coordinators. Donnie Henderson accepted the defensive coordinator position which is somewhat of a coup considering Henderson has been an up and coming head coaching candidate for the last few years. As good as it is to have Henderson on board; my guess is that the Lions choice for offensive coordinator will have a bigger impact on the success of the franchise. Marinelli will pretty much call the shots on defense so Henderson’s impact will probably be felt in motivation and reinforcement rather than in game-planning. Millen has taken a lot of heat for drafting three straight wide receivers with high first round picks. In hindsight, that turned out to be a terrible strategy but the result wasn’t inevitable. If the picks had performed the way every draft expert and talent evaluator predicted, critics would be singing an entirely different tune. The breakdown was two-fold. The players haven’t lived up to expectations but at the same time, the coaching staff has been abysmal at offensive game-planning. When Millen invested valuable draft picks on receivers, I’m sure he envisioned an on-field return similar to that of the Indianapolis Colts. Instead, his coaching staff gave him something closer to a high school game-plan. If Millen can bring in an offensive coordinator that can make use of that first round talent, and god forbid, make those players better, those picks could still come to fruition.
The only rumor I’ve heard so far about possible offensive coordinators coming to Detroit is Mike Martz. For those of you that are new to my blog, I’ll reiterate that I don’t care too much for Martz as a football mind nor do I like what I’ve seen with regards to his personality. The Lions bringing in Martz as offensive coordinator would be the equivalent of me hiring Kenneth Lay as my investment representative. That’s just something I wouldn’t do. The Rams were a dynasty in the making in 1999. They destroyed teams with a proficient offense and an aggressive defense. Their team was loaded with young, superstar talent. Dick Vermeil retired. Enter Mark Martz and the rest is history. The Rams have been a bumbling mess ever since. Granted, Martz would have far less control as Offensive Coordinator of the Lions than he did as head coach of the Rams. As a result, he would find it more difficult to single handily ruin the Lions as he did the Rams. Even if Martz somehow reformed his personal and professional philosophies and was guaranteed to be the Rasheed Wallace of reformed NFL coaches; that still doesn’t address the fact that Martz is extremely overrated. In the last six years, the Rams never fared better than 22nd in the NFL in rushing attempts. In fact, they finished 26th, 22nd, 32nd, 28th, 30th, and 29th respectively. That doesn’t mesh too well with the idea that championships are won on the offensive and defensive lines. The laughably low number of rush attempts per game could at least somewhat be defended if the Rams were below-average at the running back position. As everyone knows, the Rams have one of the greatest running backs in NFL history in Marshall Faulk. For the last two years, the Rams have had both Faulk and emerging superstar Steven Jackson. Yet, Martz continued to ignore the running game. One of the most frustrating aspects of Mariucci’s tenure was his penchant for ignoring Kevin Jones. Martz would only make the problem worse.
The Patriots have been dubbed a pass-happy team during their Super Bowl runs. Former Offensive Coordinator Charlie Weiss was lauded for his precision-passing game and propensity to throw at any time. Even with Weiss’ affection for the passing game, the Patriots were always mindful of the running game. Over the last five years, the Patriots finished 8th, 28th, 12th, 5th, and 18th in rushing attempts. Despite Weiss’ pass-oriented offense, he never abandoned the need for balance. Martz clearly has had no sense of balance in his play-calling and that certainly wouldn’t change just because he’s coming to Detroit.
I know a lot of people in Detroit probably want Martz on board because he has attained a reputation as an offensive genius. The media has been far more kind to Martz than his record has deserved. There are various sites on the internet that pay tribute to Martz’s miscues over the last six years. Martz suffered a heart-attack this season. When he expressed interest in returning early the Rams fired him. Keep in mind that the Rams have Marc Bulger, Tory Holt, Issac Bruce, Marshall Faulk, Orlando Pace and Steven Jackson on offense. If the Rams didn’t want an offensive “genius” to run that team, then that should speak volumes for how good of a coach Martz really is. If he didn’t run the ball with Faulk, Jackson and Orlando Pace, then he won’t run the ball with Kevin Jones. I guess my point is that Martz has been a disaster as a head coach. If given the choice, I would probably rather have Lloyd Carr calling the Lions offense over Martz. I can’t believe I just said that.
Anyhow, I like the Marinelli hire. The Lions will be aggressive and effective on defense for the first time in my lifetime. The unanswered question is how the offensive will pan out. Millen should bring in a guy with the same philosophies as Charlie Weiss. The key to an effective offense is balance and a reliable running game. The Lions haven’t had that since Scott Mitchell took the same magic potion that Brady Anderson took. Millen’s biggest decision will be the next one he makes. My guess is that whoever his choice for Offensive Coordinator is will be the deciding factor in whether Marinelli ends up being a good hire or not. For those of you that are “up in arms” about the Marinelli hire, it could be worse. You could be a Buffalo Bills fan. Apparently, they were impressed with the way Dick Jauron gracefully went 1-4 without eliciting any semblance of a team pulse after taking over for Mariucci.
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