"Projections" has sweaty palms

Next Sunday is “Go Time!”

Feel free to check in next Sunday before the Selection Show to see my final “projections.” I should have them up by mid-afternoon since a). any remaining games likely won't have any impact on the field and b). I'll only be posting the projections so it won't take me long to put a post together. Hopefully I can nail all 65 teams (31 of which are automatic qualifiers). I came close last year missing a perfect projection by one. If I am lucky enough to get all the picks right, then I might just have to retire the "projections" column. In the likely event that I don’t get all 65 teams correct, you’ll have to put up with this nonsense again next year.

Best freshmen class of all-time?

I haven’t been alive—or coherent—long enough to know the answer to this question but if there has been a better class than the 2007 freshmen crop, I would love to hear about it. The 2008 NBA Draft should provide a cornucopia of riches for lottery teams as there are franchise players abound. Everyone knows about Michael Beasley who is not only the best freshman—and overall player—in the country this season, he might be the greatest freshman in college basketball history. He will undoubtedly go #1 to whichever team is lucky enough to win the lottery. Miami is dreaming of a D-Wade/Matrix/Beasley lineup and Minnesota is dreaming about an Al Jefferson/Beasley frontcourt for the ages. For those who haven’t gotten a chance to see Beasley play, a comparison to Tim Duncan isn’t so far off. There are some major differences between the two. Beasley isn’t as big as Duncan which is definitely an advantage for TD. On the flip side, Beasley is more athletic and has more range than Duncan. If it came down to it, I bet most NBA scouts would take Beasley’s skill-set over Duncan’s circa 1997. That is saying a lot since TD is easily one of the ten greatest basketball players in NBA history.

The rest of the ’07 freshmen crop is outstanding. Derrick Rose and Eric Gordon are 2a and 2b when it comes to NBA talent and readiness. Gordon is like a 6’4 Charles Barkley who plays shooting-guard. He can jump out of the gym and has range to match. Rose is a 6’3 point guard with freakish athleticism. Jerryd Bayless is another point guard with a fantastic repertoire. Kevin Love is an extremely skilled big-man with an NBA ready frame. Long before this class made it to college, O.J. Mayo was considered, far and away, the best recruit in the class. He’s probably no better than the 5th or 6th best prospect at this point but that’s because the rest of the group has been so good. Mayo has led USC to the brink of the NCAA Tournament averaging 21 ppg while shooting 41% from 3-point range. DeAndre Jordan is easily the most unheralded of the group but he is a 7-foot superstar in the making. In some years, he would be the #1 pick in the draft.

In fact, Beasley, Gordon, Rose, Bayless, Mayo, and Jordan may have all gone #1 overall in the ’01, ’05, and ’06 drafts. This has the makings to be the most prolific NBA Draft of all-time. At the very least it should rival ’03, ’99, ’96, and ’84 as the best drafts ever. The 2007 freshmen class is so deep and talented that it will likely not only dominate the 2008 NBA Lottery but the 2009 NBA Lottery as well. The following players will be in the running as top ten selections next season if they opt to stay in school for one more year: Anthony Randolph, J.J. Hickson, Blake Griffin, Donte Green, James Harden, Austin Daye, Kosta Koufos, Patrick Patterson, Davon Jefferson, James Johnson, Bill Walker, and Jonny Flynn.

Projections

Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Miami FL
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large Oregon
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large USC
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Baylor
53 At-Large Purdue
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Ohio St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Mississippi St.
60 At-Large Kentucky
61 At-Large Mississippi
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Dayton
64 At-Large Illinois St.
65 At-Large UNLV

Changes from last week:

In: Ohio St., Oregon, Syracuse, and Mississippi
Out: UAB, Florida, Va. Tech, and Maryland


*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.

Last five “in” (no particular order)

1). Arizona

I can’t rationalize keeping Arizona out at this point even with an 8-10 conference record. TV pundits love to play the “in” or “out” game when discussing the tournament bubble. The problem is that you can’t just look at a team’s resume and say, “Weak resume= no tournament.” The field is graded on a curve. Teams with questionable resumes can make the tournament if there aren’t better options available. It’s one thing to make a statement like, “Arizona doesn’t deserve to make the tournament” but for that to be true, you have to come up with a team that deserves to be in over Arizona. Va. Tech and Maryland certainly don’t. New Mexico doesn’t. Villanova and St. Joe’s don’t. So, until a few spots get erased by conference tournament-upsets, Arizona remains in the field. I do have one problem that I’m having a difficult time resolving. Arizona lost to Arizona St. twice. Arizona St. also has a better record in the same conference. There is a huge discrepancy in the RPIs which is why Arizona gets the nod but Arizona St. should be one of the final five or six teams in the bubble discussion if it can win a game or two in the Pac-10 Tournament. Arizona will beat Oregon St. (0-16 conference record) in the first round of the P10 Tournament which will set up a make or break game against Stanford in the second round. A win there probably gets ‘Zona in to the tournament. A loss would do the opposite unless the rest of the bubble teams fail to impress as well.

2). Oregon

I expect Oregon to get bounced from the Pac 10 Tournament in expedited-fashion so its candidacy might not be an issue next week. However, it’s tough to ignore Oregon. Like ASU, Oregon beat Arizona twice and has a better conference record. Unlike ASU, Oregon’s RPI is actually respectable. Its still a ways behind Arizona’s but the Ducks are good enough to be in the tournament at this point. One comparison that I do not want to have to make is if the last spot in the tourney came down to Oregon and Arizona. However, Oregon would have to get by Washington St. in its first game in the P10 Tournament for that to be an issue.

3). Syracuse

Syracuse—like Arizona and Oregon—is only in the discussion because there just aren’t many teams worthy of the last few at-large bids. In most years, Syracuse’s resume would only be good enough to be one of the last few teams passed over by the committee. At this point, Syracuse has to be one of the at-large teams. Upsets in conference tournaments might change that but right now, the ‘Cuse is in. The first round of the Big East Tournament conveniently pits Syracuse against Villanova effectively eliminating the loser from at-large contention. Its too bad sorting out the rest of the bubble isn’t this easy. A “bubble tournament” would go a long way in ending Selection Sunday injustice and--not as ideal--suspense.

4). Mississippi

Mississippi might not get into the tournament but if that happens, I think it’ll be because of perception and not because of merit. Mississippi finished 7-9 in the SEC after a horrible start. The Rebels boast an RPI of 42 along with five wins in the RPI 50. Va. Tech and Maryland have a combined total of zero wins in the RPI 50. Mississippi has a legitimate chance at playing its way into the tournament. It should have no problem dispatching Georgia in the first round of the SEC Tournament. That would set up a make or break second round affair with Kentucky. If Mississippi can beat Kentucky, I think it’ll sneak into the field.

5). Texas A&M


The Aggies have a Syracuse-like resume—their RPIs are 47 and 46 respectively—that will be difficult to distinguish from the rest of the bubble teams. They finished 8-8 in the Big XII. Their key non-conference wins were against Ohio St. and Oral Roberts. They did manage to beat Texas, Oklahoma, and Baylor but lost to all three as well. An early loss in the conference tournament by any of the five teams on this list would likely be a deathblow to any tourney chances. Texas A&M should have no problem picking up a win in the Big XII Tournament as it faces Iowa St. in the first round. A win over Kansas St. in the second round would pretty much lock things up. A loss would leave the Aggies in the precarious situation of hoping there aren’t many unforeseen automatic qualifiers.

First five “out” (no particular order)

1). New Mexico

A totally undeserving team like New Mexico gets admitted into the tournament every year. Whether it’s UAB ’05 or Air Force ’06—they combined for zero wins against the RPI 50 but still managed at-large bids—the Selection Committee always makes at least one totally inexplicable decision. New Mexico very well could be that decision this year. Unlike the UAB and Air Force teams, New Mexico actually has a win in the RPI 50 albeit one. New Mexico is 3-4 in the top 100. No team with only three wins in the RPI 100 deserves an at-large bid, ever.

2). Va. Tech

One team that I wouldn’t mind seeing New Mexico get an at-large big ahead of would be the Hokies. Va. Tech’s resume is deplorable. It boasts zero wins in the RPI 50 and zero non-conference wins in the RPI 125. The combination of “ACC team” and “+.500 conference record” makes this a Selection Committee darling but even the biggest ACC fan couldn’t rationalize Va. Tech getting a bid with such a crummy resume. Because the ACC is the ACC, I think if Va. Tech wins two games in the ACC Tournament it’ll be escorted to the NCAA Tournament as a VIP. Va. Tech would likely need to beat Miami FL and North Carolina for that to happen which would leave...

3). Maryland

I’m not sure whether Maryland has a better resume than Va. Tech. The Terps went 0-2 against Va. Tech this season but at least Maryland beat a top 50 team and an incredibly good one at that. Maryland’s win at North Carolina ranks as one of the most impressive wins by any team this season. Still, Maryland’s resume is atrocious. The Terps lost to a number of bad teams including Missouri, Boston College, Ohio, and American. Unfortunately, they don’t have the marquee wins to make up for those losses. Maryland only needs to beat Boston College and Clemson to pick up two victories in the ACC Tournament but Sunday's devastating loss to Virginia means Maryland will have to march all the way to the ACC Chmapionship Game to have a shot at a bid.

4). Villanova

Villanova is close but loses out “head-to-head” to too many bubble teams to be in the field at this point. Syracuse and St. Joe’s have slightly more impressive resumes with better RPIs and better wins. Nova also has three bad losses to Rutgers, DePaul, and Cincinnati. Villanova gets its shot against Syracuse in the first round of the Big East Tournament. The winner of that game gets Georgetown in the second round for a chance to put an end to any speculation.

5). St. Joe’s

There were a number of choke-jobs in the A-10 but only Rhode Island’s failure to capitalize on a 20-4 start can rival St. Joe’s losing to Duquesne, St. Louis, and LaSalle down the stretch. A win over any of those 100+ RPI-teams probably would’ve been enough. Instead, St. Joe’s needs a miracle. Fortunately for the Red Hawks, that miracle could come in the form of a nicely set-up bracket in the A-10 Tournament. St. Joe’s gets Fordham in the first round. A win there would bring a match-up in the second round against Richmond (Richmond is the #4 seed, St. Joe’s is the #6 seed!). A win there would set-up a colossal showdown against Xavier just an hour away from the St. Joe’s campus. The first two games should be easy wins. A win over Xavier would likely send St. Joe’s to the tourney.


Top Seeds

#1 Seeds

Tennessee
Memphis
UCLA
North Carolina

#2 Seeds

Texas
Duke
Georgetown
Kansas

#3 Seeds

Vanderbilt
Wisconsin
Xavier
Louisville

#4 Seeds

Drake
Connecticut
Notre Dame
Stanford

#5 Seeds


Washington St.
Purdue
Butler
BYU

#6 Seeds

Michigan St.
Indiana
Clemson
Marquette

#7 Seeds

Pittsburgh
Gonzaga
UNLV
Oklahoma

#8 Seeds


Miami FL
Massachusetts
Mississippi St.
Kent St.

"Projections" grabs an offensive board

Kevin Borseth is My Hero

Not only do I disagree with the incredibly insane Tony Kornheiser that Michigan Women’s Basketball Coach Kevin Borseth should be fired, I think Borseth deserves a raise! Borseth nearly self-combusted during a post-game rant after Michigan blew an 18-point lead against Wisconsin last week. Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon lamented the tirade on PTI by saying Borseth’s rant had “no theme.” That’s like saying Rick Majerus doesn’t have a vice. The theme of the rant was--without question--“offensive rebounds.” Borseth has taken a lot of flack across the country for his outburst but watch the video and tell me that’s not a guy who is committed to—and passionate about—his job. I don’t know much about Borseth, but I do know that I’d hire him for pretty much anything after seeing his fervor. It was already obvious that Borseth had revitalized the Michigan Woman’s Basketball team. Michigan was 3-13 in the Big Ten last year. It is 9-8 in the Big Ten this season. However, after seeing him get that worked up over offensive boards, it’s no wonder his team is fighting for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. This wasn't a guy being a jerk swearing his way through a meltdown. This is a guy who is as frustrated as any human has ever been in the history of the universe because his team lost and he didn’t think it deserved such a fate. Kornheiser gets paid to stay idiotic things like, “fire this guy for showing passion” but I would be willing to bet a significant amount of money that the folks in the Michigan Athletic Department are tickled to death to have Borseth running the woman’s basketball team. At least this guy understands that.


No Favorite

Early in the college basketball season, it appeared there were eight teams that had separated themselves from the rest of D-1 basketball. N. Carolina, Duke, Memphis, Kansas, Georgetown, UCLA, Texas, and Tennessee appeared to be the only teams with realistic shots at winning the NCAA Tournament. I’m not sure I agree with that anymore. I have no problem envisioning a team from the following group winning the tournament: Vanderbilt, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Louisville, Michigan St., Marquette, and Stanford. The odds of any one of those teams winning the championship are pretty slim but, as a group, I think the odds are pretty good. Over the last two weeks, the top teams have looked beatable. Vanderbilt took down Tennessee. Duke lost to Wake Forest, Miami FL and nearly lost to NC State. Kansas lost to Oklahoma St. Texas lost to Texas Tech. Georgetown lost to Syracuse and very nearly lost to Marquette. I’m guessing that N. Carolina will be the chic pick come Selection Sunday. However, I don’t think the field has been this wide-open in my lifetime. This means we can expect two things come March: 1). The NCAA Tournament will be crazier than Gary Busey and 2). The person who knows the least about college basketball will win your pool again.

Projections

Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Va. Tech
37 At-Large Miami FL
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large Marquette
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large USC
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Baylor
53 At-Large Purdue
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Florida
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Mississippi St.
60 At-Large Kentucky
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large UAB
64 At-Large Illinois St.
65 At-Large UNLV

Changes from last week:

In: Illinois St., Florida, UAB
Out: New Mexico, Villanova, St. Joe’s


*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.

Last five “in” (no particular order)

1). Dayton

Dayton is one of the numerous teams that must go 2-0 this week to have any shot at an at-large bid. The Flyers get St. Bonaventure on the road and St. Joe’s at home. Two wins would get them to 8-8 in the A-10 with wins over Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rhode Island, Temple, and St. Joe’s and—more importantly—an RPI in the top 30. Last week I wrote that the bubble was enormous. One week later, Dayton is one of the only true bubble teams.

2). Va. Tech/Maryland

I would hate to see either of these teams get an at-large bid. They have combined to beat one team in the RPI 50. Neither team has a non-conference win in the RPI 100. Those are horrendous things to have on a resume. The only thing these teams have going for them is that they may finish above .500 in the ACC. If there aren’t many conference tournament-upsets this year, there are going to be a number of sorry teams that receive at-large bids starting with these two. This is the year to root for Wright St, Western Kentucky and the like to steal automatic bids.

3). Texas A&M

The Aggies are in trouble. They must avoid going 0-2 this week. Playing at Baylor and home against Kansas will make that a difficult task. A split in the final week of the regular season will put them at 8-8 in the Big XII. Even then, there still aren’t many impressive wins on the resume. This team will likely need to go 2-0 this week or make some noise in the Big XII Tournament to have any shot at a bid.

4).Illinois St.

With its win at S. Illinois this week, Illinois St. pretty much guaranteed that it would be the second team out of the MVC if the conference gets multiple bids. There is no question that ISU is the second best team in the conference. Its RPI, conference record, and head-to-head edge over S. Illinois says so. Illinois St. would have to screw up big-time in the Valley Tournament to miss out on a bid.

5). UAB

UAB is in a similar position. It is the second best team in Conference-USA. Houston’s horrible loss to East Carolina over the weekend made it pretty easy to separate UAB and Houston. UAB has the better RPI, conference record, and the head-to-head advantage. The real question is whether C-USA will get a second bid. UAB would have to make it to the finals of the C-USA Tournament to even have a chance and even then, UAB has zero wins in the RPI 50.

First five “out” (no particular order)

1). Rhode Island

Rhode Island needs to beat Charlotte on Saturday to get to 8-8 in the A-10. A loss is a deal-breaker. A win merely gets URI in the discussion. Victories over UAB, Syracuse, and Dayton and an RPI in the high 40s won’t be enough. The Rams will need to make a run in the A-10 Tournament.


2). S. Illinois

We’re getting into teams that really have no chance other than winning their conference tournament. S. Illinois would need to reach the finals of the Valley Tournament to even have a prayer. Even then, it would boast 14 losses. An at-large bid is as likely at this point as David Archuleta not winning American Idol.

3). Ohio St.

As horrible as Ohio St. has played recently, it will have two games to make or break its at-large hopes. Unfortunately, those two home games are against Purdue and Michigan St. As unlikely as two wins are, a sweep would probably put OSU in the tournament. Stranger things have happened.


4). St. Joe’s

Replace Ohio St, Purdue and Michigan St. with St. Joe’s, Xavier and Dayton and the previous paragraph fits here verbatim.

5). Syracuse

Replace Ohio St., Purdue and Michigan St. with Syracuse, Seton Hall, and Marquette and two paragraphs previous fits here verbatim.


Top Seeds


#1 Seeds

Tennessee
Memphis
Duke
North Carolina

#2 Seeds

Texas
UCLA
Georgetown
Kansas

#3 Seeds

Vanderbilt
Wisconsin
Xavier
Connecticut

#4 Seeds

Purdue
Louisville
Notre Dame
Stanford

#5 Seeds

Marquette
Drake
Indiana
Michigan St.

#6 Seeds

Butler
Washington St.
Clemson
Pittsburgh

#7 Seeds

BYU
Gonzaga
UNLV
USC

#8 Seeds

Oklahoma
Massachusetts
Arkansas
St. Mary’s

Big Games this Week

Monday

Pittsburgh @ West Virginia

Tuesday

Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech
Purdue @ Ohio St.
UNLV @ New Mexico
Arkansas @ Mississippi

Wednesday

Texas A&M @ Baylor
Mississippi St. @ Vanderbilt
Tennessee @ Florida

Thursday

Xavier @ St. Joe’s
Stanford @ UCLA

Friday

None

Saturday

St. Joe’s @ Dayton
North Carolina @ Duke
Baylor @ Texas Tech
Kansas @ Texas A&M
Louisville @ Georgetown
Marquette @ Syracuse
UAB @ Memphis
Stanford @ USC

Sunday

Va. Tech @ Clemson
Michigan St. @ Ohio St.
Florida @ Kentucky


Just for the heck of it...

Michigan got a raw deal on the "transfer exchange rate." I have no problem admitting that I enjoyed watching Robbie Reid fire up all 222 of his 3-point attempts in 1999 when Louis Bullock and Reid were the only scoring threats on the team. Seriously, Reid deserves an award for shooting seven 3s per game over an entire season. However, the list of players who have transferred to Michigan over the years is pretty pathetic. At least Michigan was able to win a game of "hot potato" with North Carolina with respect to Makhtar Ndiaye. Wake Forest was the big winner in the Ndiaye sweepstakes, though, because he never actually played for the school.


Transferred from Michigan

Rich McIver to Texas
Albert White to Missouri
Olivier Saint-Jean to San Jose St.
Willie Mitchell to UAB
Leon Derricks to U of D Mercy
Leland Anderson to Providence
Sam Mitchell to Cleveland St.
"Rainmaker" Baker to Florida Gulf Coast University
Chuck Bailey to U of D Mercy
Bobby Crawford to Rice
Brandon Smith to San Diego St.
Kevin Gaines to Houston
Dommanic Ingerson to UC Santa Barbara
Makhtar Ndiaye to North Carolina

Transferred to Michigan

Robbie Reid from BYU
Zack Gibson from Rutgers
Makhtar Ndiaye from Wake Forest
Laval Lucas-Perry from Arizona
J.C. Mathis from Virginia

* These lists are from memory so if you remember anyone I missed, please pass them along.

"Projections" win 8 and 7

There’s the bubble…

Like magic, “the bubble” just appeared out of thin air this week. It is amazing how many teams that were “left for dead” fought there way back, and conversely, how many teams that were near locks went sour in a hurry. The following is by no means conclusive but it is a list of teams on the bubble with three weeks before Selection Sunday.

Dayton-------------UAB-----------Florida
St. Joe’s-----------Houston--------Arkansas
Rhode Island------Ohio St----------VCU
Massachusetts----Syracuse--------Wright St.
UNLV------------Villanova--------Arizona St.
New Mexico-----W. Virginia--------Arizona
San Diego St.-----Illinois St.--------Va. Tech
Texas A&M-------S. Illinois--------Wake Forest
Baylor------------Creighton--------Maryland
Texas Tech-------Kentucky--------Miami FL

This list doesn’t even include teams like Kent St., Oral Roberts, BYU, S. Alabama, and Davidson who would move directly to the bubble if they don’t win their conference tournaments. The last few weeks of the college basketball season usually do a pretty good job of sorting everything out. However, every team listed above pretty much controls its own destiny. Only about 1/3 of the teams listed above will get bids. These teams have a lot of work to do. If I were in charge of the tournament and had to make my selections today, I could only pick 60 worthy teams. The bubble might be large but it's far from impressive.

The Wrecking Balls

If you're reading this, Jay Bilas, please skip to the next paragraph. Michigan’s “maturation” has me all excited for the Big Ten Tournament. Despite a 9-18 overall record, I would take John Beilein’s first-year squad over any of Tommy Amaker’s products heading into the BTT. Amaker never won more than one game in any of his six Big Ten Tournament appearances. Beilein has Michigan playing its best ball heading into the most important part of the season. For much of the Big Ten schedule, Michigan was the 10th best team in the conference and it didn’t appear to be close. Now, a strong argument can be made that Michigan is the 7th best team in the conference closing fast on Minnesota and Ohio St. Michigan has won four of its last five games and nearly beat Purdue and Wisconsin (the top two teams in the conference) earlier in the season. That makes Michigan a less-than-desirable opponent in the Big Ten Tournament. Here are the squads that other teams want to avoid in their respective conference tournaments (to qualify, an at-large bid must be out of the question):

ACC: NC State

NC State has wins over Villanova, Davidson, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Miami FL, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech this season. Over the last seven years, NC State is 10-6 in the ACC Tournament including victories over eight teams in the RPI 45 and three trips to the ACC Final.

Big XII: Oklahoma St.

The Cowboys have had one of its worst teams in recent memory. A 1-6 start in the Big XII ended any hopes for an at-large bid. However, three consecutive wins over Baylor, Texas A&M, and Kansas has OSU playing it best basketball of the season. Only a handful of teams in Division-I basketball can claim a better string of back-to-back-to-back victories. In the last four years, OSU is 9-2 in the Big XII Tournament including two Championships.

Pac 10: Oregon

Oregon has wins over Kansas St., Arizona, and Stanford and has been competitive in its seven losses to teams in the RPI 40 in the Pac 10 alone (with the exception of a 29-point drubbing at Stanford). Oregon is 9-2 in its last four Pac 10 Tournament appearances including two Championships.

Big East: Cincinnati

Cincinnati has wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Villanova. Ohio St. would be a "lock" for the tournament if it could boast such a collection of wins. The Bearcats are also above .500 in the Big East which is a substantial accomplishment considering they were 2-14 in the conference last season.

SEC: Mississippi

The Rebels encountered a debilitating 3-7 stretch after starting the season 15-1. An at-large bid is likely out of the question but a run in the SEC Tournament is not. Mississippi has wins over Clemson, S. Alabama, New Mexico, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi St.

A-10: Temple

The Owls had a chance to climb into the bubble picture but promptly lost an inexcusable home game to Fordham. Still, Temple claims wins over Xavier, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island and boasts a 7-5 record in the A-10.

MVC: Bradley

Bradley was 1-5 in the MVC and seemingly headed for a disappointing season to say the least. Since then, Bradley has gone 8-2 with wins over Illinois St., Creighton, and Drake. Off topic but I feel compelled to give a "shout out" to Hersey Hawkins. It is because of him that I cannot think of Bradley without first thinking of Chocolate Bars.


“Like, for sure”

The Valley had a monumental 2008 Bracket Buster taking eight of its ten match-ups. The MVC had been disappointing all season but the conference did its best to make up for it on one momentous weekend. Just two weeks ago, it appeared that Drake would be the only team from the conference in consideration for an at-large bid. Now, with an RPI neck and neck with the A-10, the MVC should be poised for multiple bids yet again. Drake is a “lock” at this point. I would not be surprised to see two more teams get a bid. The top four teams in the MVC took on very strong candidates in the Bracket Buster and all came away victorious. Drake took down Butler. Illinois St. beat Wright St. S. Illinois hammered Nevada. Creighton beat Oral Roberts. Butler, Wright St., and Oral Roberts are three of the best mid-majors in the country.


Projections

Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Va. Tech
37 At-Large Miami FL
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large Marquette
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large USC
48 At-Large Stanford
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Baylor
53 At-Large Oklahoma
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Mississippi St.
60 At-Large Kentucky
61 At-Large St. Joe's
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large New Mexico
64 At-Large S. Illinois
65 At-Large UNLV

Changes from last week:

In: Miami FL, Kentucky, S. Illinois, New Mexico, Villanova, Virginia Tech
Out: Syracuse, Florida, Ohio St., Houston, Dayton, Rhode Island

*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.

Last five “in” (no particular order)

1). S. Illinois

S. Illinois’s candidacy for an at-large bid is tenuous at best. However, I think its fate is pretty simple. If the Salukis don’t lose until the MVC Final, then I think they’re in. Anything short of that would mean a minimum of 13 losses and a trip to the NIT. The Salukis may hold a tiebreaker over a number of teams since its star, Randal Falker, looks like Boyd Tinsley. Hopefully, for SIU's sake, the Selection Committee likes DMB.

2). New Mexico

New Mexico has two games to basically play its way into the tournament. The Lobos might look like a bubble team now but that should change by next weekend. They play UNLV and BYU at home this week. Two wins and they are headed to the tourney. Two losses would not only burst their bubble but might also make Stoney Case cry. A split will keep these guys in the discussion for three more weeks.

3). Va. Tech

The ACC is a mess. There are three teams in the conference that are above .500 with an RPI worse than 60. Most arguments on Selection Sunday are “cut and dry”, IMO. The argument for Va. Tech could go either way. The ACC is, by far, the #1 conference according to the RPI. Finishing above .500 in such a strong conference is quite an achievement. However, Va. Tech has zero wins in the RPI 50. I don’t think this team deserves a bid at the moment but I think their affiliation with the ACC would get them in. Slightly off topic but for anyone wondering why Bimbo Coles goes by “Bimbo”, his given name is Vernell Eufaye Coles…not that there’s anything wrong with that.

4). Maryland

Maryland is pretty much in the same position as Va. Tech with one major exception: Va. Tech beat Maryland twice. So, if Va. Tech doesn’t get a bid, then I don’t see how Maryland can.

5). Texas A&M

Texas A&M is in trouble. As things stand now, I think the Aggies are in. With a stretch against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas to close out the season, things could change. Still, a split in those games would mean a likely ticket to the dance. Interestingly, A&M might miss out on an at-large bid while Kentucky will likely get one. Billy Gillispie took a lot of heat when Kentucky was 7-9 and Texas A&M was 14-1. I’m not sure anyone saw that coming.

First five “out” (no particular order)

1). Illinois St.

Illinois St. knocked Wright St. out of this spot with its eight-point win over the Raiders on Sunday. The MVC will likely get multiple bids so as long as ISU holds on to its second place position, it should be in good shape.

2). Ohio St.

Ohio St. might need to go back to paying its players because this “on the up and up” stuff just isn’t cutting it. Where’s Jim O’Brien’s check book when you need it? By the way, am I the only one who has a hard time understanding the following passage?

“O'Brien won the suit after a judge ruled that, though he had broken his contract by giving the loan, the error was not serious enough to warrant firing.” (Wikipedia)

Since when does “paying a player $6,000” not warrant firing? Plus, he paid two players.

3). Florida

Florida is even worse off than the ACC-trifecta. The Gators have an RPI of 59 and only one win in the RPI 50. That is similar to Maryland and Va. Tech but Florida doesn’t play in the #1 conference in America. Florida will need to finish 3-1 against a pretty tough schedule and win a game in the SEC Tourney.

4). Syracuse

I’m ready to stick a fork in Syracuse. Its remaining schedule is brutal. That would be OK if Syracuse was at or above .500 in the conference. Instead, its 6-7 conference record will probably continue to get worse.

5). Dayton

Dayton has just about finished its all-time caliber tank-job. However, the last three games of the schedule present an opportunity for the Flyers to get back to .500 in the conference. That—combined with at least one win in the A-10 Tourney—would get Dayton right back in the mix.


Top Seeds

#1 Seeds

Tennessee
Memphis
North Carolina
Duke

#2 Seeds

Texas
Kansas
UCLA
Georgetown

#3 Seeds

Connecticut
Wisconsin
Xavier
Purdue

#4 Seeds

Notre Dame
Drake
Michigan St.
Louisville

#5 Seeds

Marquette
Stanford
Butler
Indiana

#6 Seeds

Clemson
Washington St.
Vanderbilt
Arizona

#7 Seeds

Pittsburgh
St. Mary’s
Kent St.
BYU

#8 Seeds

Miami FL
Oklahoma
Massachusetts
Mississippi St.

Big Games this Week

Monday

Texas @ Kansas St.
Marquette @ Villanova

Tuesday

Ohio St. @ Indiana
S. Illinois @ Bradley
BYU @ New Mexico
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt

Wednesday

Miami FL @ Clemson
Texas Tech @ Texas A&M
Creighton @ Illinois St.

Thursday

Maryland @ Wake Forest
Michigan St. @ Wisconsin
Notre Dame @ Louisville
Wright St. @ Butler
USC @ Arizona
UCLA @ Arizona St.

Friday

None

Saturday

Ohio St. @ Minnesota
Kansas St. @ Kansas
Texas @ Texas Tech
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma
Georgetown @ Marquette
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse
West Virginia @ Connecticut
USC @ Arizona St.
Washington St. @ Stanford
Mississippi St. @ Florida
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas
St. Mary’s @ Gonzaga

Sunday

Temple @ St. Joe’s
Clemson @ Maryland
Indiana @ Michigan St.
Villanova @ Louisville
UCLA @ Arizona
Kentucky @ Tennessee

"Projections" on fire like Michigan Basketball

Michigan continued its supremacy over Michigan St. in basketball by picking up another transitive property victory by virtue of its win at Iowa. Last week I stated what everyone already knows—Penn St. is the barometer in college basketball. Head to head results, RPI, and conference standings mean very little. It’s how you fare against Penn St. that really matters. The second most important barometer in college basketball is, of course, how you fare against Iowa. Michigan St. lost at Iowa. Michigan won at Iowa. The result is Michigan having Michigan St. beat in the two most important differentiating factors in college basketball. Plus, Michigan is 3-0 in its last three games. MSU is 1-2. Other than how you fare against Iowa and Penn St., the best gauge for comparing two teams is—yep, you guessed it—how you fare over your last three games. It must be tough to be a Sparty right now.


A-10 is sinking faster than Aretha Franklin’s seat

Pardon my attack on the Queen of Soul but nobody messes with Beyonce without ending up on the wrong side of a punch-line. It wasn’t but three weeks ago that—in this same spot—I raved about the A-10’s fantastic body of work out of conference. Conferences don’t just accidentally run off a string of victories as impressive as what the A-10 accomplished earlier this season. The A-10 was—and still should be—for real. Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton, and Massachusetts spent much of the year near the top of the RPI. After two weeks of self-destruction, Xavier is the only team that remains in the RPI 20. Massachusetts has all but played its way out of the tournament-field by losing three of its last five including dreadful losses to St. Louis and Fordham. The most surprising collapse, though, belongs to Dayton. The Flyers have followed suit with abysmal displays against Duquesne, GW, and Richmond. If Dayton and Massachusetts continue to falter, then the A-10 could be looking at only two bids. If Dayton and UMASS get back on track and St. Joe’s continues to play well, then the A-10 could be looking at five bids. The A-10’s fate on Selection Sunday remains the biggest mystery in college basketball aside from Oregon’s recruiting tactics.

Memphis is the new UNLV

Perhaps the biggest regular season game in recent college basketball history will be played on Saturday as Memphis battles Tennessee. The game is intriguing enough with the #1 and #2 teams in the RPI duking it out for a likely #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and for supremacy in the state of Tennessee. However, the stakes are much higher as Memphis tries to close out the first perfect regular season in college basketball since UNLV did it in 1991. There have been a number of teams in the last few years alone that have entered the last week of the regular season undefeated. Illinois lost to Ohio St. in 2005 after starting 29-0. St. Joe’s lost to Xavier in 2004 after starting 27-0. Stanford lost to Washington in 2004 after starting 26-0. All three lost the week before Selection Sunday. It would appear that Memphis would have a cakewalk to 34-0 if it can get passed Tennessee since the Tigers don’t play another team in the regular season with an RPI better than 77. However, one thing to consider is that Memphis will likely have to play Houston or UAB for a third time this season in the C-USA Tournament. The latter would be particularly difficult since it would mean Memphis would have to play UAB three times over 28 days. Considering how close their first match-up was (79-78 Memphis), that could be interesting. It’s tough to beat a decent team—and I think Houston and UAB qualify as decent—three times in one season. One thing is for certain—Memphis won’t be criticized for not being tested like it was last season. If Memphis can defeat Tennessee, it will boast non-conference victories over Georgetown, Tennessee, Connecticut, Arizona, USC, Gonzaga, and Oklahoma. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a more impressive collection of non-conference victories by one team.


Projections

Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Purdue
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Michigan St.
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large St. Joe's
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large Houston
65 At-Large BYU

Changes from last week:

In: Houston
Out: Mississippi

*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.

Last eight “in” (no particular order)

1). Dayton

Dayton has a strong RPI (23) and a nice collection of wins over Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Rhode Island. Still, I’m not sure a .500 conference record in the A-10 is good enough for an at-large bid. That means Dayton will have to finish 4-1 over its final five games. That won’t be easy with Xavier and St. Joe’s in that group. Fortunately for Dayton, both are home games.


2). Houston

I only have Houston tentatively in the field so don’t start questioning my insanity just yet. I’m disappointed that the pool of potential at-large teams is so weak that I have no other realistic options. Mississippi and Oregon clearly can’t be “in” at this point. VCU just lost to a bad Old Dominion team. Anything short of a 6-0 finish to the season and I’ll find a replacement. On an unrelated note, back in the "Phi Slama Jama" days of Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon, the team actually wore warm-ups that said “Phi Slama Jama.” Can you imagine any coach signing off on that today?


3). Oklahoma

I mentioned last week that OU needed a 2-0 week to stay in the projections. The Sooners went 2-0 and thus stay safe for another week. With non-conference victories over Gonzaga, West Virginia, and Arkansas, I think a .500 conference record will be good enough for a bid. Plus, Kelvin Sampson isn’t their coach anymore. It was a good week to be a Sooner.


4). Baylor

Baylor was 15-2. Now, it’s 16-7. That isn’t good. Baylor went from a near sure-thing to extremely questionable in just a matter of weeks. I can only guess that the team realized it was Baylor. With an RPI of 43 and a resume short on marquee wins, Baylor is reeling. The good news is that a 3-3 finish might be enough and not having to play Kansas or Texas makes that a decent proposition.

5). Florida

Florida has had a weak RPI all season. However, its gaudy record was always enough to fall back on. Florida was 15-2. Now, it’s 19-7. With its gaudy record gone, it doesn’t have much in the name of a resume. Its RPI is weak at 57. It has one win in the RPI 50. Still, Florida only plays one team in the RPI 45 in its last five games. A 3-2 record should be enough to garner a bid.

6). Ohio St.

Ohio St. hasn’t beaten a team with an RPI better than 100 since December 22. That is hard to do. The Buckeyes beat Syracuse and Florida in the non-conference schedule but have feasted exclusively on the bottom-feeders of the Big Ten. I’m starting to think that OSU needs to get to 10-6 to secure a bid.

7). Texas A&M

The Aggies are one of three Big XII teams barely hanging on to a bid. A&M is in the best shape of the bunch with victories over Ohio St., Oral Roberts, and Texas. However, its remaining Big XII schedule is brutal. Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Baylor are four of the final six opponents. The Aggies need at least a 9-7 record to feel good about its chances and I’m not sure that’s going to happen.


8). Syracuse

I thought it was all over for Syracuse when it lost to S. Florida on Wednesday. Three days later, a victory over Georgetown put the Orangemen right back in the field. Syracuse gladly would’ve accepted a loss to S. Florida if it meant a victory over Georgetown.


First eight “out” (no particular order)

1). Oregon

Oregon is pretty much toast. But, if it can go 5-1 over its final six Pac-10 games, I think that would be enough. Unfortunately for Ernie Kent and Co., UCLA, USC, and Arizona are still on the schedule.

2). Mississippi

Despite a 3-7 conference record, Mississippi is in better shape than Oregon. The Rebels only have one opponent in the RPI 45 left on the schedule. A 5-1 finish could be enough. Anything short, though, and they’re done.

3). Arizona St.

ASU keeps coming and going. Every time I think they’re dead, they reel off a string of improbable victories. Every time I think they’re here to stay, they lay an egg. If ASU can go 3-3 over its last six conference games, then I think they might be in good shape. Victories over Xavier, Stanford, and Arizona twice are respectable. To get those three wins it badly needs, ASU will likely either have to win at Oregon or at home against USC.

4). W. Kentucky

It is possible for a team to achieve a good RPI without any wins of note. It doesn’t happen often but W. Kentucky has certainly done so this year. WKU has zero victories inside the RPI 130. Yet, it sports an RPI of 50. The only way WKU gets an at-large bid is if it beats S. Alabama this week and the rest of the fringe teams collapse in a major way. Or, I suppose Darrin Horn could get fellow W. Kentucky alum Clem Haskins to pay someone on the Selection Committee.


5). Miami FL

Miami kept any slim chance it had at making the tournament alive by narrowly escaping at Georgia Tech. Despite a solid RPI of 41, Miami will likely have to beat Duke on Wednesday to have any shot at a bid.

6). VCU

I thought VCU was going to sneak out a bid by winning its last nine Colonial games. A loss to Old Dominion derailed that notion. VCU has wins over Houston and Maryland but the Colonial isn’t particularly strong this year. A bid seems unlikely at this point. Things could change, though.

7). Kentucky

Kentucky had a Syracuse-like week. It was embarrassed by 41 points at Vanderbilt on Tuesday but then beat LSU on Saturday to bring its conference record to 7-3. Kentucky only needs to go 3-3 in its final six SEC games to get to 10-6. The 10-6 mark is usually as good as gold but if there was ever a 10-6-team undeserving, it would be Kentucky.

8). Wright St/S. Illinois/Illinois St/New Mexico

None of these teams are likely to make the tournament. However, if any can win the rest of their regular season games, that would change. I doubt any are good enough to do it but it’s possible.


Top Seeds

#1 Seeds

Memphis
Duke
North Carolina
Tennessee

#2 Seeds

Kansas
Texas
UCLA
Connecticut

#3 Seeds

Georgetown
Purdue
Xavier
Wisconsin

#4 Seeds

Butler
Louisville
Stanford
Drake

#5 Seeds

Notre Dame
Michigan St.
St. Mary’s
Marquette

#6 Seeds

Pittsburgh
Washington St.
Clemson
Indiana

#7 Seeds

Kansas St.
Rhode Island
Arizona
Vanderbilt

#8 Seeds

Texas A&M
BYU
Gonzaga
Dayton


Big Games this Week

Monday

Xavier @ Rhode Island
Texas A&M @ Texas
Syracuse @ Louisville

Tuesday

Purdue @ Indiana
Baylor @ Oklahoma

Wednesday

Houston @ UAB
Mississippi St. @ Mississippi

Thursday

Massachusetts @ Rhode Island
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame
Arizona St. @ Washington St.
Oregon @ USC
S. Alabama @ Western Kentucky
Sam Houston St. @ Stephen F. Austin

Friday

Davidson @ Winthrop

Saturday

Kansas St. @ Baylor
Oklahoma @ Texas
George Mason @ Ohio
VCU @ Akron
Tennessee @ Memphis
Drake @ Butler
Kent St. @ St. Mary’s
Arizona @ Washington St.
Oregon @ UCLA
Arkansas @ Kentucky

Sunday

St. Joe’s @ Rhode Island
Xavier @ Dayton
Wisconsin @ Ohio St.
Louisville @ Pittsburgh
Syracuse @ Notre Dame

Projections more confident than Kanye West

I would like to invoke the transitive property to prove Michigan’s dominance over Michigan St. in basketball. The Wolverines got off to a brutal start this season while Michigan St. has been spectacular sans a couple in-conference meltdowns. However, everyone who follows basketball knows that Penn St. is the barometer in college basketball. Since Michigan beat Penn St. on Saturday, and Penn St. beat Michigan St. last Saturday, it can be said—without a shadow of a doubt—that Michigan currently sports the superior basketball program. I realize there will be more than a few totally biased Spartans out there who will argue that Michigan St. beat Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio St., and Purdue while Michigan lost to all four giving Michigan St. the advantage in transitive property superiority, 4-1. Some may even choose to cite Michigan St.'s head-to-head victory. While I applaud their fandom, those reasons ring hollow. Everyone knows that you’re judged on what you have done most recently—and what you’ve done against Penn St. The pendulum has swung in Michigan’s favor. And all I can say is, “Eat it, Sparty!”


Projections

Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC UNLV
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Siena
18 Big Sky Portland St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot American
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Arkansas
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large St. Joe's
65 At-Large BYU

Changes from last week:

In: Maryland
Out: NC State

*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.

Last five “in” (no particular order)

1). Oklahoma

I wanted to take Oklahoma out of the field this week but, since there’s no bubble, I had no team to take its place. I briefly considered Michigan but its 169 RPI poses a problem. Losing to Colorado was a huge blow to OU’s chances at securing an at-large bid. Another slip-up like that and it's NIT-time. The Sooners have wins over Arkansas, West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Baylor and a mid-40s RPI. Oregon sports a similar resume but Oklahoma has a fairly manageable schedule remaining. If OU doesn’t go 2-0 this week, then "no matter what occurs! I will find you. No matter how long it takes, no matter how far, I will find..." a replacement.

2). Mississippi St.

Mississippi St. can all but clinch an at-large bid with a win at home against Arkansas on Saturday. A loss wouldn’t be a deal-breaker but it would almost guarantee a nervous Selection Sunday. The Bulldogs don’t have a great resume but a win over Arkansas would almost certainly mean a minimum of a 10-6 conference record. That has historically been good enough for a bid with few exceptions.

3). Syracuse

If Syracuse loses to S. Florida this week, then it’s over. A win still leaves the Orange with less than a 50% chance of making the tournament. Contrast Syracuse’s remaining Big East schedule to Seton Hall’s and you have to wonder if Ramon Ramos is making the schedules. The good news is that the Orange can always choose to play the, “struggle mightily in the regular season only to improbably win the Big East conference tournament by beating four teams in the RPI 40 in four days” card.

4). Maryland

I should’ve known that Gary Williams would eventually get Maryland into that “fourth team in the ACC” spot. I feel like a fool for not realizing this sooner. I had my reasons to doubt, though. Maryland started the season 6-6 with losses at home to American (shouldn’t a school with a name like that get more attention?), and Ohio. Maryland’s resume is still pretty questionable but a 6-3 record in the ACC is a guarantee for the tourney. A few unexpected losses could change things but Maryland could probably finish 3-4 over its last seven and still make the tourney.

5). West Virginia

This is a team that has looked like a solid bet for an at-large bid all season. For that to remain true and avoid another Rich Rodriguez-style rude-awakening, WVU will have to go 5-3 in its last eight conference games. The schedule isn’t too daunting but I can't say I'd be surprised if WVU flamed out.

First five “out” (no particular order)

1). Seton Hall

For the third consecutive week, Seton Hall is in this position. The Pirates have lost three in a row. Their RPI is 60. They’re under .500 in the Big East. Few things seem to be going right. However, remember the last few weeks when I mentioned that Seton Hall has the easiest conference schedule to close out the season? Well, that’s about to come into play. Seton Hall has to split its next two games at home against Marquette and @ West Virginia. After that, it’s RPIs of 136, 160, 123, and 198 with a home game against Syracuse in there. Seton Hall has a pretty good shot at 10-8 in the Big East. That would likely be good enough for a tourney-bid. Lose the next two, though, and they’re toast.

2). Houston

Houston will be in this section for the remainder of the season unless it can win @ Memphis this week or get the editor of the August 26, 1991 edition of Sports Illustrated on the Selection Committee. I'm skeptical that either is going to happen. So, Houston will have to sweat out Selection Sunday with a 14-2 conference record and an RPI in the 40s. Houston’s best win on the season is against Kentucky. That’s starting to look a bit better but no wins inside the RPI 80 is a deal-breaker.

3). NC State

If the Wolfpack lose @ Boston College on Thursday, then you will probably never see its name in this space again unless. A decent RPI and a near .500 record in the ACC is the only reason I’m still writing about these guys. NC State has no wins in the RPI 40. It lost to New Orleans and East Carolina which is atrocious to have on a resume.

4). VCU

If VCU plays George Mason in the Colonial Conference Championship Game, I think there is a good chance that both will get in. VCU has wins over Maryland and Houston and will likely sport a 16-2 conference record. VCU will need to beat Akron in its Bracket Buster game. If it does all that, it’ll have a 21-5 record and an RPI in the 40s. That should get it done.


5). Kentucky

If Kentucky can win five of its final eight SEC games, it’ll finish with at least an 11-5 conference record. I’m pretty sure that there has never been a major-conference team left out of the tourney with 11 conference wins since the tourney expanded to 64 teams. Plus, the Selection Committee values how teams are playing at the end of the season. Kentucky has won five in a row including a victory over the #1 team in the RPI (Tennessee). I don’t think many people would’ve believed this three weeks ago but Kentucky controls its own destination for a tourney bid despite an 89 RPI.

Top Seeds

#1 Seeds

Duke
North Carolina
Memphis
Kansas

#2 Seeds

Tennessee
UCLA
Georgetown
Connecticut

#3 Seeds

Michigan St.
Texas
Xavier
Stanford

#4 Seeds

Drake
Butler
Pittsburgh
Louisville

#5 Seeds

Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Purdue
St. Mary’s

#6 Seeds

Vanderbilt
Kansas St.
Indiana
Texas A&M

#7 Seeds

Washington St.
Rhode Island
Arizona
Arkansas

#8 Seeds

Clemson
Baylor
Marquette
Dayton

Just outside the top 8-seeds: Mississippi, USC, Gonzaga, Florida, and Massachusetts

Big Games this Week

Monday
Kansas @ Texas
Utah St. @ Nevada

Tuesday
Michigan St. @ Purdue
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Marquette @ Seton Hall

Wednesday
Maryland @ Duke
Wisconsin @ Indiana
Notre Dame @ Connecticut
Houston @ Memphis
Arkansas @ Tennessee

Thursday
None

Friday
Pittsburgh @ Marquette

Saturday
Clemson @ NC State
Michigan St. @ Indiana
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Texas @ Baylor
Georgetown @ Syracuse
Ohio @ Kent St.
UNLV @ BYU
Stanford @ Arizona
UCLA @ USC
Washington St. @ Oregon
Arkansas @ Mississippi St.
Florida @ Vanderbilt

Sunday
Seton Hall @ West Virginia