NCAA Tournament Projections (Week of March 5)

There were some big-time choke jobs in college basketball last week. San Diego St. had an at-large bid seemingly wrapped up before inexplicably losing to Utah. Oklahoma St. simply needed to beat Baylor and Nebraska in its last two games but Mario Boggan got himself suspended for the Baylor game which OSU promptly lost. Kudos to Sean Sutton for choosing integrity over an NCAA Tournament bid because that’s what his suspension of Boggan ended up meaning. Michigan had a bid-clinching win in hand against #1 Ohio St. before falling apart at the end of the game. Alabama blew any chance it had at making the tournament by losing to Mississippi St. to cap a 2-5 finish to its season. While those teams were throwing their seasons away, Georgia Tech seems to have entered the 65-team field with authority having beaten North Carolina and Boston College to climb to 8-8 in the ACC.

I am fairly confident with regards to which teams will make up 63 of the 65 spots. The last two spots are going to depend on the conference tournaments. Teams like Kansas St. and DePaul will have a chance to validate themselves to the committee. If Nevada, Xavier, Butler, and Memphis don’t win their conference tournaments, then that will eliminate an opening. Likewise, if any of the teams that I don’t have projected from the major conferences win their conference tournament, then that will also eliminate a bid. There are teams that look to be safely in the tournament that could be out of luck if craziness presides this week.

My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what it is going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):


Changes from last week:

In: Georgia Tech and VCU/George Mason winner

Out: Missouri St. and San Diego St.

(Automatic bids in Bold)

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Ohio St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Creighton
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU/George Mason
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Eastern Kentucky
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Michigan St.
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Maryland
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large BYU
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Louisville
42 At-Large Drexel
43 At-Large Ga. Tech
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Pittsburgh
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Syracuse
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Old Dominion
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large S. Illinois

My projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.

The last five teams in the tourney right now:


1. West Virginia

RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 38
SOS: 98
W/L: 20-8
Record vs. RPI50: 2-6

Quality wins: Villanova, DePaul, and UCLA
Bad losses: @ Cincinnati

I really have no idea what the Selection Committee will do with West Virginia. The Mountaineers have two wins over tournament teams. That is way too low for any team to feel confident about receiving a bid. I’m guessing that the next mid-major to unexpectedly win a conference tournament will bump West Virginia out of the field.


2. Drexel

RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 83
SOS: 96
W/L: 22-6
Record vs. RPI50: 3-4

Quality wins: @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Hofstra, and @ Creighton
Bad losses: @ Pennsylvania, @ Rider, and @ William & Mary

Creighton winning the MVC Tournament definitely helped Drexel’s profile. Drexel won at Creighton earlier in the year. George Mason’s run in the CAA Tournament has also helped Drexel since Drexel defeated George Mason, too. What didn’t help Drexel was not making it to the CAA Tournament semi-finals. I do think an impressive road record and a number of quality wins will be enough to get Drexel an invitation.


3. Illinois

RPI rating: 35
Pomeroy rating: 22
SOS: 36
W/L: 21-10
Record vs. RPI50: 3-8


Quality wins: Bradley (neutral), Missouri (neutral), Indiana, Michigan St., and Michigan
Bad losses: @ Iowa

Illinois is hiding behind its 9-7 Big Ten record. That really is all it has in the name of compelling reasons to receive an at-large bid. Illinois is also benefiting from the fact that there are so many “bubble” teams that have wasted opportunities to solidify a bid. There is no doubt in my mind that if Illinois loses its first game in the BTT, it will be out.


4 Stanford

RPI rating: 57
Pomeroy rating: 53
SOS: 23
W/L: 18-11
Record vs. RPI50: 5-6

Quality wins: Texas Tech, @ Virginia, Washington St., USC, UCLA, and Oregon
Bad losses: California and Santa Clara

Stanford is a lot like Georgia Tech and Texas Tech. They all have very impressive wins without gaudy overall records or conference records. The candidates for at-large bids are so weak that I don’t think a team with as many good wins as Stanford will be left out. Stanford’s low RPI will be troubling to the Selection Committee but no team that I have projected “out” of the tournament can compete with the six wins I have listed above.


5. Purdue

RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 26
SOS: 48
W/L: 20-10
Record vs. RPI50: 4-6

Quality wins: Virginia, DePaul (neutral), Illinois, Michigan St. and Indiana
Bad losses: @ Indiana St. and @ Minnesota

Two different college basketball experts will likely have two totally different views on Purdue. One person may be impressed by Purdue’s relatively impressive group of non-conference wins (Virginia, DePaul, Missouri, and Oklahoma) while another may be repulsed by the ease of Purdue’s Big Ten schedule. Purdue got to play Northwestern, Penn St. and Minnesota twice each which is a huge asset in the Big Ten. At the same time, Purdue only had to play Wisconsin, Michigan St., and Illinois once. There is no doubt in my mind that had Purdue had Michigan St. or Michigan’s Big Ten schedule, the Boilermakers would have been under .500 in the conference. I’m sure that the Selection Committee will be aware of that. Purdue must win its first game in the BTT or it’s out.


On the outside looking in:

1. Missouri St.

RPI rating: 38
Pomeroy rating: 43
SOS: 38
W/L: 21-10
Record vs. RPI50: 3-5

Quality wins: Wisconsin (neutral), Bradley, @ Bradley
Bad losses: @ Evansville, Northern Iowa, and @ St. Louis

IMO, Missouri St. was the first victim of a conference tournament upset. Neither VCU nor George Mason was going to get an at-large bid so that squeezes one team out of the tournament field. Missouri St. was, by far, the third best team in the MVC. Unfortunately for MVC, Creighton was by far the second best team. There is such a large gap between Creighton and Missouri St. that I think the Selection Committee will feel comfortable making a cutoff between those schools.


2. Kansas St.

RPI rating: 59
Pomeroy rating: 51
SOS: 95
W/L: 21-10
Record vs. RPI50: 1-5

Quality wins: USC (neutral) and @ Texas
Bad losses: @ Nebraska, @ Colorado St., and @ New Mexico

This one is a 50/50 toss-up. A 10-6 conference record has been enough to get a team from a major conference an at-large bid 99% of the time. Very few of those schools had schedules as easy as KSU’s though. If I had to make an argument for KSU, I would have a hard time doing so. The Wildcats haven’t beaten anyone of note in the conference with the exception of one win over Texas. This is a team that benefited from, quite possibly, the easiest major conference schedule of all-time. KSU’s resume doesn’t compare favorably to any of the at-large teams, let a lone a team like Michigan who has no chance of an at-large bid. Ten conferences wins is a magic number. For that reason—and that reason only—KSU has to be near the top of the “bubble” list.

3. San Diego St.

RPI rating: 55
Pomeroy rating: 77
SOS: 78
W/L: 19-9
Record vs. RPI50: 3-5

Quality wins: California, Air Force, BYU, and UNLV
Bad losses: @ Western Michigan, Wyoming and @ Wyoming

Unbelievable. I was in shock when I saw that San Diego St. lost to Utah last week. All SDSU had to do was beat Utah and it would have been headed to the NCAA Tournament. No single loss was more damaging to any team in the NCAA this season. The only chance SDSU has now is to knock off one of the Mountain West’s big three and reach the finals of the MWC Tournament. It’s possible but unlikely. SDSU blew it big time.

4. Appalachian St.

RPI rating: 62
Pomeroy rating: 87
SOS: 156
W/L: 22-7
Record vs. RPI50: 3-2

Quality wins: Virginia (neutral), Vanderbilt (neutral), @ VCU, and @ Davidson
Bad losses: @ Wake Forest, Elon, @ NC Greensboro, @ Furman, and College of Charleston (neutral)

Appalachian St. has the bad combination of being a mid-major with a poor RPI. Some major schools can get away with a poor RPI but mid-majors almost always need an impressive RPI to garner consideration. Appalachian St. has some good wins but they are outnumbered by the amount of bad wins. I think this team would have received an at-large bid had it not lost three games to teams with an RPI of 190 or worse.

5. DePaul/Clemson/Oklahoma St./Massachusetts/Michigan/Alabama/Florida St.

I’m not going to bother with the statistical breakdown of these teams. None of these teams have a real good shot at making the tournament. Any team that loses its first conference tournament game will be out. Michigan needs to make it to the BTT Semi-Finals. DePaul needs three wins (two if one of them is against a very good team). Oklahoma St. needs to make the Big XII Championship game. Alabama needs to do the same in the SEC. Massachusetts needs to make the A10 Championship game. Clemson and Florida St. need to get to the ACC Semi-Finals. None of those things are guarantees for a bid. They are merely requirements to stay in contention.


Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament

#36 Clemson
#38 Missouri St.
#42 Alabama
#44 Bradley
#47 Florida St.
#48 Arkansas
#52 Oklahoma St.
#53 Michigan
#55 San Diego St.
#56 Massachusetts
#59 Kansas St.
#60 Mississippi


Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections

#58 West Virginia
#57 Stanford
#54 USC
#50 Syracuse
#46 Drexel
#45 Purdue
#43 Virginia
#41 Louisville
#40 Texas Tech
#39 Old Dominion
#37 Vanderbilt
#35 Illinois



Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (7)


UNC
Duke
BC
Virginia
Va. Tech
Maryland
Ga. Tech

Big East (8)

Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Louisville
Syracuse

SEC (4)


Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt

Pac-10 (6)

UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford

Big XII (4)

Kansas
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas

Big Ten (6)

Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
Michigan St.

MVC (2)

S. Illinois
Creighton

MWC (3)

Air Force
UNLV
BYU

CAA (3)

George Mason/VCU
Old Dominion
Drexel

Year of the Bondo

At the risk of jumping the gun, I think this could be the year Jeremy Bonderman breaks through as a league-wide force in MLB. Bonderman has been lauded in recent years for his “talent”. Most notably, Curt Schilling said that if he were to start a team from scratch, Bonderman would be one of his five starters. That is high praise coming from a pitcher that is what many people feel Bonderman could become if everything works out perfectly. Bonderman’s slider is already considered one of the best in the game. Even still, his shortcomings are well noted—probably even more noted than his strengths. He doesn’t (or hadn’t by the end of ’06) have an effective third pitch. He is susceptible to giving up big innings. He often leaves his fastball over the heart of the plate. He only pitches as well as his last pitch. As soon as things start to unravel, things only seem to get worse. Fortunately for Bonderman, all of those things are fixable. It is possible—not likely but possible nonetheless—that those things were worked out over this past winter. It is more likely that it will take a few years to iron out those glitches.

I don’t have any sound data to back this up but I am pretty sure that Bonderman is the most popular answer to the recent marketing-inspired question/phenomenon, “Who’s your Tiger?” That’s my answer and I know a lot of people that echo the same response. Bonderman is one of those rare athletes that develops a huge following before reaching their potential. “Bondermania” started picking up steam two years ago when “Bondo” won 11 games before the All-Star break in ‘05. His All-Star game snub did not go over well in Detroit. But, a weak second half and an up and down 2006 have left Tigers fans begging for consistency. Personally, following Bondo’s starts has me on an emotional rollercoaster. Every “up” is followed by a “down.” In fact, there are some nights when I know I’m not in the mood to handle a Bondo meltdown so I don’t even watch. As unpredictable as Bondo has been, he can be equally as brilliant. His series-clinching performance against the Yankees was so mesmerizing that it captivated two stadiums filled to capacity. I didn’t even get a chance to watch it. I relied solely on the couple in front of me at the UM/MSU game who were listening to the game via radio. That was as euphoric a scene as this sports fan has ever seen (other than the mayhem that was Charles Woodson's punt return against OSU in '97). The only thing that could compete with being at Comerica Park for the event might be sitting with 111,000 people in disbelief. Bondo had a perfect game through five (only one other player has done that in the post-season over the last 20 years) against one of the best lineups ever assembled. If that doesn’t thrust Bondo into the big-time, then I don’t know what will.

A lot of Tigers fans breathed a collective sigh of relief when Dave Dombrowski managed to reach an agreement on an extension with Bonderman. That assures Bonderman will be with the franchise for the foreseeable future—and if his standing among other greats at the age of 24 is any indication, that could be a very successful foreseeable future. Here is how he stands among the great pitchers of the last 20 years in terms of wins by the age of 25:

Jeremy Bonderman 45 + ’07 Total
Greg Maddux 61
Roger Clemens 52
Pedro Martinez 48
Tom Glavine 33
Curt Schilling 4
Randy Johnson 0

If Bonderman can win 17 games in 2007, he’ll be ahead of every pitcher on the list—a list that is made entirely of future Hall of Famers. The encouraging thing is that, like the above pitchers at the age of 25, Bonderman hasn’t reached his prime yet. I’m inclined to believe that Bondo’s first four seasons have set the stage for his coming out party in season five. He has improved every season of his four-year career. His 2006 numbers featured career bests in Wins, Innings, ERA, HR’s allowed, K’s, Games Started, and Losses. For a 23-year old, Bonderman’s 2006 season has to go down as very good. As long as Bonderman continues the trend of constant improvement, his 2007 season should be stellar.

There has been a lot made of the need for Bondo to develop an effective third pitch. Bonderman himself admits that he’ll never reach “ace” status without it. Google “Bonderman needs an effective third pitch” for a slew of confirmations. Unfortunately, the notion that Bondo needs another pitch is true. I would bet that the vast majority of Bonderman’s struggles have come as a result of the batter being able to narrow his next pitch down to two choices. Span those two choices over seven innings and you have the makings for a lot of bad things. To Bondo’s credit, he has had to pitch brilliantly just to stay afloat with those two pitches. A third pitch would just make him nasty in the Johan Santana mold.

It is very easy to like Bonderman. I think that’s why he—and not any other Tiger—has been chosen as the people’s Tiger. He started off his career under the worst possible circumstances. He became the first US born player to be drafted as a junior in High School only to be publicly ridiculed in Moneyball for being a monumental mistake made by Oakland GM Billy Beane. He was traded to the worst franchise in MLB at the age of 19. He lost 19 games in his rookie year (could have been 20 if he wasn’t benched the last week of the season) with one of the worst teams ever assembled. What makes him so likeable is how he responded to those things. In 2005, he became the youngest opening day starter (22) in MLB since 1986. He has improved in each of his four seasons without as much as a single gripe. He has openly professed his desire to play in Detroit. Nothing has come easy for Bondo which makes his success that much more gratifying for Tigers fans.

NCAA Tournament Projections (Week of February 25)

Last week, Michigan St. was spiraling out of control with two home games against Wisconsin and Indiana staring it in the face. Two victories later and MSU isn’t only a lock for the NCAA Tournament but it could end up with a five or six seed. One week can make all the difference. Just ask San Diego St. and Drexel. Those teams were out of the at-large discussion until a number of major conference teams went into the tank. San Diego St. might not seem like a typical at-large selection but if Air Force, UNLV and BYU are tournament teams (as most agree that they are), then San Diego St. is a tournament team, too.

One thing I didn’t realize until after I finalized this week’s projections was that the SEC and Big XII only have four bids each. I don’t have a single team from the SEC West. I don’t think the SEC has much of a chance to get a fifth team unless Alabama wins its last two conference games and makes it far into the SEC Tournament. The Big XII could get five but that is the most since the loser of the OSU/KSU game will be out of luck. The mid-major haters will be in full effect if the Mountain West gets as many bids (four) as the SEC and Big XII as I have projected. The good news is that, other than Billy Packer, I don’t think there are many mid-major haters out there.

My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what it is going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):


Changes from last week:

In: Michigan State, San Diego St., Syracuse, and Drexel

Out: Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma St., and Alabama

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Ohio St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial Old Dominion
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Michigan St.
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Maryland
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large BYU
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Louisville
42 At-Large Drexel
43 At-Large San Diego St.
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Pittsburgh
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Syracuse
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton

My projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.


The last five teams in the tourney right now:

1. San Diego St.

RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 71
SOS: 61
W/L: 18-8
Record vs. RPI100: 3-5


Quality wins: California, Air Force, BYU, and UNLV
Bad losses: @ Western Michigan, Wyoming and @ Wyoming

San Diego St. blindsided me. Not once in the previous five weeks did I even mention San Diego St. To be fair, the Aztecs were 11-7 with virtually no wins of note five weeks ago. Since that time, SDSU has gone 8-1 with victories over three teams in the RPI 25. The Aztecs have also seen their RPI skyrocket to 46. With two winnable games remaining and many of the big conference teams beating each other up, that number will likely rise into the 30s before Selection Sunday. If SDSU loses either of its last two games (@ Utah, and TCU), then it’ll be on the outside looking in.


2. Syracuse

RPI rating: 53
Pomeroy rating: 42
SOS: 59
W/L: 20-8
Record vs. RPI50: 2-5


Quality wins: Hofstra, @ Marquette, Villanova, and @ Providence
Bad losses: Wichita St., @ St. John’s, and @ UCONN

If Syracuse can get to 10 wins in the Big East, I think it’ll be in (assuming no conference tournament upsets). The ‘Cuse have a better resume than Kansas St. and Alabama. A comparison between Oklahoma St. and Syracuse is very close with OSU having won in NY over Syracuse early in the season. That win becomes moot if OSU doesn’t win out to get to 8-8 in the Big XII. To get to 10-6 in the Big East, Syracuse will have to either win at Georgetown or beat Villanova at home. Both will be a tall order but Jim Boeheim’s teams have played very well late in the season over the last few years. I think Syracuse will take one of those games.


3. Drexel

RPI rating: 53
Pomeroy rating: 42
SOS: 98
W/L: 21-7
Record vs. RPI50: 2-2

Quality wins: @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Hofstra, @ Creighton
Bad losses: @ Pennsylvania, @ Rider, and @ William & Mary

Drexel has snuck up the RPI very quickly over the last two weeks. Winning five of six including at Creighton in a Bracket Buster showdown will have that effect. Syracuse’s renaissance has actually helped Drexel’s resume. The Dragons can boast two wins on the road against two possible Big East at-large selections. Drexel also has non-conference wins over three other teams in the RPI 100 (Toledo, St. Joseph’s, and Vermont). Drexel has the most road wins in college basketball. Only an early exit in the CAA conference tournament would boot Drexel from an automatic bid.

4. Purdue

RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 38
SOS: 30
W/L: 18-10
Record vs. RPI50: 4-5

Quality wins: Virginia, DePaul (neutral), Illinois, Michigan St. and Indiana
Bad losses: @ Indiana St. and @ Minnesota

Purdue’s relatively weak RPI is probably due to the fact that it had the luxury of playing Penn St., Northwestern, and Minnesota a total of six times. Throw in the fact that Purdue only had to play Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan St. once each, and you have, quite possibly, the weakest Big Ten schedule of all-time. Still, Purdue is 3-1 against Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan St. which are all in line for at-large selections. Purdue also has an impressive slate of non-conference wins against Virginia, DePaul, Missouri, and Oklahoma. The latter two aren’t going to blow anyone away but the collection of non-conference wins is better than most bubble teams. As long as Purdue wins its last two conference games (Minnesota and Northwestern) then it will be heading to the NCAA Tournament.

5. West Virginia

RPI rating: 57
Pomeroy rating: 33
SOS: 108
W/L: 19-7
Record vs. RPI50: 2-4

Quality wins: Villanova, DePaul, and UCLA
Bad losses: @ Cincinnati

Of all of the at-large teams that I have projected in the NCAA Tournament, West Virginia has, by far, the lowest RPI and worst collection of quality wins. I’m not convinced that most people are aware of how bad WVU’s resume is as of right now. The Mountaineers will likely finish 9-7 in the Big East with an RPI in the 50s. That will lead to an uncomfortable Selection Sunday for John Beilein and Co. but I think WVU’s perception will be enough for an at-large bid.



On the outside looking in:

1. Oklahoma St.

RPI rating: 50
Pomeroy rating: 69
SOS: 39
W/L: 18-9
Record vs. RPI50: 4-6


Quality wins: Missouri St. (neutral), Syracuse (neutral), Pittsburgh, Texas, and Texas Tech
Bad losses: @ Colorado, @ Oklahoma, and Missouri

Other than a better conference record, I’m not sure how West Virginia gets in over Oklahoma St. OSU has a vastly more impressive list of victims. WVU would be essentially benefiting from playing a much weaker schedule. Granted, Oklahoma St. has struggled as of late but should it get its conference record to 8-8 (very possible), then I think OSU deserves to be in over WVU.

2. Kansas St.

RPI rating: 55
Pomeroy rating: 51
SOS: 94
W/L: 20-9
Record vs. RPI50: 2-5

Quality wins: USC (neutral) and @ Texas
Bad losses: @ Nebraska, @ Colorado St., and @ New Mexico

Kansas St. could become the first team in major conference history to win 11 conference games and not make the NCAA Tournament. KSU had the good fortune of playing Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech once each. KSU has one of the worst strength of schedules of any major conference team. Eight of its nine conference wins have come against Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa St., Baylor and Colorado. That doesn’t mean that KSU won’t get in with 11 conference wins. Anything is possible at this point. I do feel confident saying that the loser of the KSU/OSU game will be out of the running for a bid.


3. Alabama

RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 55
SOS: 49
W/L: 19-9
Record vs. RPI50: 2-4

Quality wins: Xavier (neutral), Georgia and Kentucky
Bad losses: @ Auburn, @ Mississippi, and Auburn

Alabama has had plenty of chances to clinch an at-large bid but has failed miserably against poor competition. This team doesn’t deserve a bid based on its resume thus far. It has one of the weakest collections of quality wins of any team in college basketball. In fact, it only has two wins over teams that I have making the tournament. That is a terrible total. It must win its last two conference games just to get to 8-8 in the conference. A trip to the SEC Championship game is pretty much the only thing that can save the Crimson Tide.


4. Bradley

RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 62
SOS: 46
W/L: 19-11
Record vs. RPI50: 1-7

Quality wins: S. Illinois and VCU
Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech

Bradley might end up being the highest rated team in the RPI left out of the tournament. Bradley is nowhere near as qualified as last year’s highest rated team (Missouri St.) left out of the tournament. Bradley went 0-4 against Missouri St. and Creighton. It lost by wide margins to Michigan St. and Illinois. Putting the RPI aside for a moment, I don’t see anything from Bradley’s schedule that indicates it is a tournament-worthy team. A trip to the MVC finals could change that but Bradley is probably the team that has the least amount of opportunity to make an impression of all bubble teams before Selection Sunday.


5. Georgia

RPI rating: 52
Pomeroy rating: 39
SOS: 20
W/L: 16-10
Record vs. RPI50: 2-7

Quality wins: Vanderbilt and Kentucky
Bad losses: Western Kentucky and @ Mississippi

Georgia has two games left—one against Tennessee and one against Kentucky. If Georgia wins both, it will be in the tournament. If it loses both, it will be out of the tournament. If it splits, it will be the bubble team of all bubble teams.



7. DePaul
8. Iowa
9. VCU



Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament


#41 Clemson
#43 Alabama
#45 Bradley
#48 Florida St.
#50 Oklahoma St.
#51 Georgia Tech
#52 Georgia
#54 Michigan
#55 Kansas St.
#58 Massachusetts


Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections

#57 West Virginia
#53 Syracuse
#49 USC
#47 Purdue
#46 San Diego St.
#44 Texas Tech
#42 Drexel
#40 Stanford
#39 Louisville
#38 Virginia


Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (6)

UNC
Duke
BC
Virginia
Va. Tech
Maryland

Big East (8)

Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Louisville
Syracuse

SEC (4)

Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt

Pac-10 (6)

UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford

Big XII (4)

Kansas
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas

Big Ten (6)

Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
Michigan St.

MVC (3)

Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton

MWC (4)

Air Force
UNLV
BYU
San Diego St.

CAA (2)

Old Dominion
Drexel


Six Degrees of Separation NCAA Basketball Style

I started wondering the other night how many degrees the worst team in the RPI is from the best team in terms of a common opponent link. Obviously, the difference in talent is huge. But, with 336 D-1 basketball teams playing 30+ games per season, there is bound to be a short separation from worst to best I researched this extraordinary waste of time back to 2001. I would have done it for '99 and '00 but it’s very difficult to play this game when the worst team has zero wins. I chose Florida for 2007 for no other reason than I think Florida is the best team. It remains to be seen which team will finish number one in the RPI for 2007.

2007

N. Colorado over N. Arizona
N. Arizona over San Fran
San Fran over Loyola Maramount
Loyola Maramount over Oral Roberts
Oral Roberts over Kansas
Kansas over Florida

2006

Prarie View A&M over Alabama St.
Alabama St. over S. Alabama
S. Alabama over Houston
Houston over LSU
LSU over West Virginia
West Virginia over Georgetown
Georgetown over Duke

2005

Maryland East Shore over MD Baltimore County
MD Baltimore County over Delaware
Delaware over Drexel
Drexel over St. Joseph's
St. Joseph's over Davidson
Davidson over Missouri
Missouri over Kansas

2004

Arkansas Pine Bluff over Alabama St.
Alabama St. over Texas Southern
Texas Southern over Mississippi Valley St.
Mississippi Valley St. over Northwestern
Northwestern over Purdue
Purdue over Duke

2003

Morris Brown over Lipscomb
Lipscomb over NO
NO over Tulane
Tulane over Ga. Tech
Ga. Tech over Virginia
Virginia over Kentucky

2002

Liberty over Radford
Radford over NC Wilmington
NC Wilmington over Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) over Ball St.
Ball St. over Kansas

2001

Arkansas Pine Bluff over MVSU
MVSU over Alabama St.
Alabama St. over S. Alabama
S. Alabama over Marquette
Marquette over Cincy
Cincy over Clemson
Clemson over NC
NC over Duke

Joe D's Darko Redemption

I recently read an article on ESPN.com by LZ Granderson about how his soul was ripped out of his body the day the Pistons drafted Darko Milicic. Or maybe it was just slowly ripped out over the last two years after being witness to D-Wade, Melo, and Chris Bosh take over the league. The Pistons could’ve had anyone other than LeBron but instead took the tried and not true “European big-man” route. Before I get any further into this, I want to remind everyone that nobody had a problem with the Pistons taking Darko at the time. In fact, I remember there was some talk in the months leading up to the draft that some teams around the league would have taken Darko over LeBron. Whether that was an attempt to scare Cleveland out of taking LeBron is unknown. Nonetheless, the Darko pick only became a bad pick after he failed to garner playing time which is something that Joe Dumars said he wasn’t going to get when he drafted him. As a result, the Darko experiment never had a chance of working in the first place. Nobody knew if Darko was good when he was drafted and, believe it or not, nobody knew if he was good when he was traded to Orlando. Joe Dumars failed to follow through with his own plan. He mortgaged the future on a plan that he gave up on. That is, by far, the biggest criticism I have of Dumars’ tenure in Detroit. That decision cost the Pistons Mehmet Okur and Wade/Anthony/Bosh. Reading that last sentence makes me sick to my stomach.

While I don’t necessarily blame Joe D for drafting Darko, I certainly blame him for the way he botched the Darko experiment. That said, Joe D has a chance to make amends. In his article, Granderson forecasts a “cruel” future for the franchise because of the Darko pick. While I can understand his frustrations, I think he has failed to adequately portray the situation. The verdict is not in on the whole Darko thing, yet. Sure, it is possible that nothing will ever come of Detroit’s second overall pick in the 2003 draft (AKA Darko Milicic) but Joe D salvaged a draft pick when he traded Darko to Orlando. So the Darko pick is actually still sitting on some piece of paper in Joe D’s office in the form of Orlando’s top-five protected 2007 first round draft pick. That pick may end up being Joe D’s salvation.

Orlando is tanking at the right time.

While Dwight Howard is a freak of nature, the rest of the Orlando Magic is not. That draft pick is looking a whole lot better for the Pistons than it did two weeks into the season when Orlando had the best record in the Eastern Conference. Orlando stands at 27-28 with a brutal schedule to finish out the season. I went through the rest of Orlando’s games and guesstimated the wins and losses. I can’t see the Magic finishing any better than 37-45. That equates to a 10-17 record from here on out. That record is only one win off of Orlando’s total from last season which garnered the 11th pick in the draft. I went through the prospective lottery teams for this season and guesstimated that Orlando will end up with the 12th pick in the draft assuming it finishes at 37-45. As long as the Magic doesn’t win the NBA Draft lottery (the pick is top-five protected) the Pistons can reasonably expect Orlando’s pick to fall someplace around 10-12. If Orlando tanks it even worse than I’ve projected, then the pick could be a little better.

The Package

Over the past few seasons, the Pistons have actually picked up two valuable commodities in the name of young talent. Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson have considerable trade appeal around the league. In Maxiell’s limited minutes, he has shown tremendous athleticism. He has a fairly good array of offensive moves and has improved considerably in the last two years. Johnson is considered an “untouchable” by the Pistons brass. Considering the age of the frontcourt, I think it would be wise to keep Johnson in that “untouchable” class. If the Pistons aren’t going to entertain offers for Johnson, then they have no reason to do the same with Maxiell.

This is all leading up to one of the most important off-season decisions the Pistons have had in years. It is important because it has a chance to make or break the future. If Joe D can’t parlay the Orlando pick into something big, then the Darko experiment will officially go down as one of the biggest disasters in NBA history—a distinction that I won't give it quite yet because of the technicality that is Orlando’s 2007 first round draft pick. Three years from now, the Pistons will be without Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Chris Webber, and Antonio McDyess. Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton will not be enough to keep the Pistons in championship form. Without the addition of a star player or two, the future may be as bleak as Granderson forecasts. However, if Joe D can package Orlando’s pick (10-12), his own pick (mid 20s), and Jason Maxiell for either a proven NBA talent (i.e. Rashard Lewis, KG) or a top five draft pick, then he may have redemption after all.

Preemptive Strike

This will likely be the only chance the Pistons have to secure success for down the road other than the crapshoot that is NBA free agency. Gradual decline is the rule in the NBA. It takes teams on the decline years to get back to championship basketball. The Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, and Pistons are evidence of that. In the NBA, fortuitous situations come along every so often. When teams make the correct decision (i.e. Chicago taking Michael Jordan, San Antonio taking Tim Duncan, Phoenix throwing a bunch of money at Steve Nash), a franchise can be set up for years. When a team makes the wrong decision (i.e. Philadelphia trading Charles Barkley for nothing), the franchise could resign itself to mediocrity for the foreseeable future. I believe that this decision for Joe D is just that sort of decision.

Just Do It!

The Pistons will not likely find themselves with such a high draft pick any time in the near future. There is absolutely no compelling reason for Joe D not to make a big move. The Pistons probably don’t have the roster room to keep two first round draft picks. Neither draft pick is likely to fetch a player talented enough to significantly improve the outlook of the future. Jason Maxiell plays the same position as Amir Johnson so he is somewhat expendable (although I like Maxiell’s game quite a bit). Joe D has already botched the Darko experiment beyond recognition. Not making a move would be like Michael Jackson refusing to try a new technology that could restore his nose to non-alien status for fear that it might mess his nose up even worse. You get to a point where you have nothing to lose. Joe D has nothing to lose. He needs to think big this off-season because one of the things that Granderson had right in his article is that this group is on the “back nine.” That doesn’t mean there isn’t a championship in the future. That just means it is closer to being a team without Billups and Rasheed than it is to the Championship it won in 2004.

Luxury Tax

Since Bill Davidson is reluctant to see his payroll go into the luxury tax zone, I doubt he’ll approve the addition of a big salary. That means Joe D will likely have to make his splash by trading up in the draft. That is a bit disappointing since the NBA draft is about as reliable as tossing a coin. However, this is one of the deepest drafts in years. A top five pick should surely net a player with tremendous potential. I just hope Joe D doesn’t have an itchy trigger finger because of Darko. The only thing that could be worse than what Joe D did with the Darko experiment would be to sit back and draft his two first-round picks. It is almost a certainty that those two picks will be worth more before the draft than they will be after. Now if only Granderson could cut down on his strikeouts—uhh sorry, I’m getting a little ahead of myself.

NCAA Tournament Projections (week of February 18)

It is amazing how much one week can change things. I wrote in this spot last week, “I do wonder what the Selection Committee will do with Louisville if it finishes 10-6 in the Big East. That could happen rather easily. Louisville will still likely see its RPI in the 70s with zero wins of significance.” Up until that point, Louisville was not even a factor in the “bubble” discussions. It had no wins in the RPI 60. That is not easy to do, either. Anyhow, in just six days, Louisville went from being nowhere near the NCAA Tournament to almost being a lock. Wins at Pittsburgh and at Marquette will do that for you. Louisville now stands at 9-4 in the Big East and very well could get to 12-4. I didn’t see it coming. Two teams that got booted from my projections last week are now back. Maryland and Texas Tech managed to stay afloat with 2-0 weeks respectively.

Bracket Buster Saturday didn’t really live up to my expectations. A lot of that had to do with some sour match-ups. The two teams that were helped the most by the Bracket Buster were Bradley and Drexel. Bradley is making a strong push to join the tournament field. Its win over VCU was a big-time resume boost. Drexel’s win over Creighton was also a resume boost but I don’t think that will be enough. Old Dominion also picked up a big win over Toledo not so much because it means a whole lot but because a loss would’ve ended all hopes for an at-large bid. Missouri St. inexplicably lost at home to Winthrop. That puts the Bears in danger of missing out on the tournament.

My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):


Changes from last week:

In: Louisville, Texas Tech, and Maryland

Out: Florida St., Kansas St., and Arkansas

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial Old Dominion
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Maryland
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large BYU
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Louisville
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Alabama
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton

My projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.

The last five teams in the tourney right now:

1. Missouri St.

RPI rating: 42
Pomeroy rating: 39

Quality wins: Wisconsin (neutral), @ Bradley, and Bradley
Bad losses: @ St. Louis and @ Evansville

Missouri St. had everything in place for a bid early in the season. It had one of the most impressive wins of the year by any team with its win over Wisconsin. The problem is that Missouri St. didn’t really pick up any marquee wins after that other than beating Bradley twice. I expect the Bears to win their last two conference games to finish 12-6. Assuming at least one win in the MVC, I would think that Missouri St. would get in as the third team from the conference. I can’t see Bradley making it over Missouri St. considering its 0-2 record head to head.

2. Maryland

RPI rating: 19
Pomeroy rating: 13

Quality wins: Michigan St. (neutral), @ Illinois, Clemson, @ Clemson and Duke
Bad losses: Miami (FL)

Maryland picked up a huge win @ Clemson on Sunday. That sets up a huge showdown between Maryland and Florida St. I predict that the winner of the game will make the tournament and the loser will not. Maryland obviously has the advantage since it’s at home but Florida St. did smoke Maryland earlier in the season. I doubt many people know just how important that game will be.

3. Clemson

RPI rating: 30
Pomeroy rating: 25

Quality wins: @ Old Dominion, @ Florida St., Florida St., Georgia, and Boston College,
Bad losses: @ Wake Forest

The ACC grind is slowly catching up to Clemson. The Tigers started off 17-0 but now stand at 5-7 in the ACC with a brutal schedule remaining. Clemson will have to win three games out of these four: Duke, @ BC, Miami, and @ Virginia Tech. I don’t see it happening. If Clemson falls short, a run to the ACC Tournament semi-finals may put Clemson into the tournament but I wouldn’t count on it.

4. Oklahoma St.

RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 69

Quality wins: Missouri St. (neutral), Syracuse (neutral), Pittsburgh, Texas, and Texas Tech
Bad losses: @ Colorado, @ Oklahoma, and Missouri

That Colorado loss is a killer. Colorado’s RPI is in the 200s. In fact, I’d venture to guess that without that loss, OSU would be a lock for the tournament. Instead, it stands at 5-6 in the Big XII with a brutal three-game stretch coming up. I’m guessing that Oklahoma St. will finish the season 8-8 in the conference and be on the bubble with a bunch of other 8-8 and 7-9 teams from the big conferences.


5. Texas Tech

RPI rating: 40
Pomeroy rating: 53

Quality wins: @ Arkansas, Oklahoma, @ Kansas St., Kansas and @ Texas A&M, and Texas A&M
Bad losses: @ Baylor, @ Missouri, and Nebraska

I thought Texas Tech was headed to the NIT last week. Bobby Knight turned things around with a 2-0 week and a huge victory at Texas A&M. One would think that Tech only needs to get to 8-8 in the Big XII to get an invite. With games remaining against Iowa St. and Baylor, that should be a shoe-in. But, you never know with Tech.



On the outside looking in:

1. Bradley

RPI rating: 29
Pomeroy rating: 60

Quality wins: S. Illinois and VCU

Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech

Bradley is making things interesting. After seemingly falling out of the “bubble” discussions, Bradley has won three in a row. In that span, it has seen its RPI climb an amazing 17 spots in just one week. The Braves are now in the top 30 which is a huge change from last week. Bradley must win its last two conference games to move to 11-7. Then, it must win a game in the MVC. That would leave Bradley at 21-11 with an RPI in the 20’s. I am not impressed by Bradley’s resume. The Braves only have two wins of significance. It would be interesting to see if the Selection Committee would put Bradley in as a make-up for leaving out Missouri St. last year. Or, Missouri St. could just end up being the precedent the committee needs to keep a team in the 20’s (like Bradley) out of the tournament.

2. Kansas St.

RPI rating: 54
Pomeroy rating: 54

Quality wins: USC (neutral) and @ Texas
Bad losses: @ Nebraska, @ Colorado St., and @ New Mexico

Kansas St’s resume is no more impressive than Bradley’s. Bob Huggins and Co. have beaten up on the lightweights of the Big XII. Only USC and Texas are in the top 70 of the RPI among KSU’s wins. If Kansas St. wins three of its last four games, it will be a lock for the tournament. If Kansas St. wins two of its last four games, it will still be in decent shape. Anything less than that and it’s over. I’m guessing that KSU will finish 10-6 in the Big XII and be either the last team in the tournament or the last team out of the tournament. Its shody resume virtually guarantees a nervous Selection Sunday for KSU.

3. Florida St.

RPI rating: 39
Pomeroy rating: 36

Quality wins: Florida, Providence, Virginia Tech, Maryland, and @ Duke
Bad losses: none

Florida St. still sports a relatively good RPI in the high 30’s despite losing four in a row. FSU can also boast no bad losses which is quite impressive. Unfortunately, FSU fails in many of the categories the Selection Committee values like road/neutral record, record in last ten games, and conference record. If FSU can get to 8-8 in the ACC, it will be a lock for the tournament. That could happen fairly easily. All FSU would have to do is beat NC State, Maryland, and Miami (FL). Suffice it to say that the Maryland game is the biggest game of the season for FSU--and possibly Maryland too.

4. Arkansas

RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 40

Quality wins: Southern Illinois (neutral), West Virginia (neutral), Alabama, @ Alabama
Bad losses: @ Missouri, @ Mississippi, @ S. Carolina, @ Mississippi St., and @ LSU

Arkansas doesn’t win on the road against anybody—except Alabama. The Hogs are 1-7 on the road this season including a slew of losses to mediocre teams. They still have a chance to make the Big Dance by winning their last four conference games. Even winning three of those games would keep Arkansas’ hopes alive. It’s unfortunate that Arkansas couldn’t just win the games it was supposed to win because it would easily be in the field if it did.

5. Michigan St.

RPI rating: 31
Pomeroy rating: 12

Quality wins: Texas (neutral), Bradley, BYU, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Iowa

I said Michigan St. was done-for last week. I still feel that’s the case but an upset over Wisconsin or Indiana would change things. Even if MSU did win one of those games, it would still only be at 8-8 in the conference. I’m not sure if that would be enough. At that point, you’d have to think the odds would be right at 50/50. My sense is that Sparty will finish 7-9 in the Big Ten, still get some “love” as a bubble team and just miss out on the Tournament. However, its wins over Bradley, BYU, and Texas look a lot better as of late.


7. Drexel
8. Providence
9. Utah St.
10. DePaul



Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament

#29 Bradley
#31 Michigan St.
#39 Florida St.
#41 Arkansas
#47 Georgia Tech
#50 Drexel
#53 Utah St.
#54 Kansas St.
#56 DePaul
#57 VCU
#58 Michigan
#59 Davidson

Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections


#60 USC
#52 Georgia
#51 Louisville
#49 Notre Dame
#48 West Virginia
#46 Texas
#44 Illinois
#42 Missouri St.
#40 Texas Tech
#38 Stanford
#37 Purdue
#36 Oklahoma St.


Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (7)


UNC
Duke
BC
Virginia
Clemson
Va. Tech
Maryland

Big East (7)

Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Louisville

SEC (6)


Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Alabama

Pac-10 (6)

UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford

Big XII (5)

Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas

Big Ten (5)

Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois

MVC (3)

Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton

MWC (3)

Air Force
UNLV
BYU


Yes, these games did happen.

(East Carolina is clearly the big winner of this category.)

Oral Roberts vs. Panhandle St.
Santa Clara vs.Holy Names
Tulsa vs. St. Gregory
Rice vs. Paul Quinn
Rice vs. Texas Permian Basin
SMU vs. Texas College
Tulane vs. Huston Tillotson
East Carolina vs. Chowan
East Carolina vs. Limestone
East Carolina vs. N.C. Central
New Mexico St. vs. Western New Mexico
BYU vs. Western Oregon
Wyoming vs. Colorado Mines
UNLV vs. Washburn
Colorado St. vs. Montana St. Northern
New Mexico vs. Abiline Christian
Louisville vs. Bellarmine
West Virginia vs. Slippery Rock
Marquette vs. Hillsdale
Seton Hall vs. Caldwell
Villanova vs. Northwood
Rutgers vs. St. Thomas Aquinas


Best Schedulers

East Carolina and Idaho

East Carolina has fives wins this season. Three of those fives wins are against D-II teams. Even though the RPI doesn’t recognize wins against D-II, East Carolina’s AD directly added 150% of the wins that ECU would have had by scheduling three D-II teams. Good job!

Idaho has three wins this season. Two of them are against South Dakota St. The amazing thing here is that South Dakota St. isn’t in the same conference as Idaho. Idaho’s AD scheduled two games against a non-conference opponent. Those two games resulted in 200% of the wins that Idaho would have had. Excellent!


Double Dip

One particular evening, I was bored enough to check out the teams that played a non-conference opponent multiple times. The list is a lot longer than I thought it would be.
Weber St., Longwood, Texas Pan America, and Chicago St. get honorable mention for having three separate two-game stints with non-conference opponents but the big winner in this category is Utah Valley St. with five such occurrences. Arkansas Pine Bluff gets the award for shamelessly trying to manufacture wins by scheduling two games against D-II Philander Smith.

Wyoming-UAB
UNLV-Hawaii
Lipscomb-Evansville
Drake-Troy
Kansas St.-New Mexico
TCU-Texas San Antonio
Northern Illinois-Duquesne
St. Joseph's-Boston University
Marshall-Ohio
Mississippi Valley St.-McNeese St.
Arkansas Pine Bluff-Philander Smith
Tulane-New Orleans
Georgia St.-Alabama St.
Southern-Louisiana Tech
Radford-Campbell
Liberty-St. Francis (PA)
East Carolina-Morgan St.
Long Island-Binghamton
Chicago St.-Wright St.
Chicago St.-New Mexico St.
Chicago St.-Valparaiso
Utah St.-Utah Valley St.
Montana St.-Utah Valley St.
Missouri Kansas City-Utah Valley St.
Southern Utah-Utah Valley St.
Texas Pan American-Texas Arlington
Texas Pan American-Texas St.
Texas Pan American-Texas San Antonio
Coastal Carolina-Savannah St.
Mercer-Savannah St.
IUPUI Fort Wayne-Western Illinois
IUPUI Fort Wayne-IUPUI
Longwood-High Point
Longwood-American
Longwood-Liberty
Winston Salem St.-Georgia Southern
Idaho-S. Dakota St.
Sienna-NJ Institue of Technology
Belmont-IUPUI
Southern Utah-Weber St.
Portland-Weber St.
Utah St.-Weber St.
Northern Arizona-San Francisco
Montana St.-Fresno St.
Montana St.-Utah Valley St.
Mississippi Valley St.-Central Arkansas
Centenary-Texas St.
Missouri Kansas City-Florida Atlantic
Southern Utah-Denver
Southern Utah-Idaho
Louisiana Lafayette-Cal St. Fullerton
Denver-Northern Colorado
Texas San Antonio-Cal St. Fullerton
San Jose St.-Long Beach St.
Arkansas St.-Bowling Green
New Mexico St.-UTEP
Southern Mississippi-Savannah St.
Bethune Cookman-Savannah St.
Stetson-Savannah St.
New Mexico St.-New Mexico
Idaho-N. Dakota St.


Most ambitious schedule

There were a lot lower-level programs that scheduled a slew of top teams. Some of those teams are; Gardner Webb, Southern, Nichols St., Elon, Texas Southern, Northeastern, Idaho St., Delaware St., and Oakland.

The Big winner, though, is Coppin St.

Virginia Tech
Tennessee
Kansas St.
Missouri
Iowa
Oklahoma
Alabama
Connecticut
Ohio St.