His name is Walter Sharpe

I am amazed at the number of people who have grilled Joe Dumars for selecting Walter Sharpe with the 32nd pick in the NBA Draft. Granted, most of them are of the ignorant variety. I have yet to see a scathing review of the Sharpe-pick from a journalist, local or national. Still, the recriminations were so loud that you’d think Bill Davidson just announced he was moving the team to Tennessee. Apparently, Joe Dumars hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt from the locals despite successful pick after successful pick.

I have to admit it I was initially pulling for the Pistons to take Bill Walker at #29. When the name, “DJ White” popped up, I was left in a stunned silence. There was only one player who I didn’t want the Pistons to take and that was D.J. White. Five picks later when the Pistons traded for the 34th pick, hope was renewed. I was standing in front of my TV begging for Bill Walker. When the name, “Walter Sharpe” came up on the screen, I felt like I had my spine ripped out by Sub-Zero. I watch enough college basketball to know at least a little about most American draft prospects. I had never even heard of Walter Sharpe. As far as I knew, the only player from UAB worth knowing was Robert Vaden.

While my initial hopes were dashed, my affinity towards Joe’s actions during the draft has grown considerably. I think he made a great decision to trade out of the First Round where money isn’t guaranteed. He admitted after the draft that he liked Bill Walker a lot but explained that Walker was not drafted because he said he wouldn’t be willing to play overseas next season. The Pistons don’t have roster-room for two draft picks to make the team. I would think Walker had a high enough ceiling that Joe would’ve made room fro him (i.e. the Celtics) but I can understand his reasoning. Plus, how bad would you want a guy who wasn’t willing to do what was necessary to play for your organization? Walker has a lot of talent but answering “no” would be a bit of a turnoff and I’m sure it was for Joe. Those who were clamoring for Chris Douglas-Roberts probably had a little too much of the hometown bias going on. CDR is an awkward player without a position. He does one thing well and that’s “play in transition.” Joe D didn’t miss out on anything by passing on him. However, none of that really matters. Douglas-Roberts refused to work out for the Pistons which ended up being a terrible decision on his part and potentially a great decision for the Pistons since it may have led them to Sharpe.

Since, the “Walter Sharpe” pick has been blasted by virtually everyone with a pulse in Metro Detroit, I think it’s time to dispel the notion that Sharpe is a bum. As I mentioned before, I watch quite a bit of college basketball. I’ve seen D.J. White play for four years. I’ve seen him play enough to know that he is too slow and lacks the athleticism necessary to be a force in the NBA. He will probably bounce around the league as a bench player but it’s unlikely he’ll amount to anything more than Malik Rose. When the Pistons initially drafted White, I felt I had enough background information to be unsatisfied with the pick. However, I don’t think there are 50 people in the entire state of Michigan who had enough background information on Walter Sharpe to justify the unilateral lambasting that has spread across the state. Nobody knows anything about Sharpe. All anyone knows it that they don’t know anything. Personally, in the event that I don’t know anything about something, my first inclination is to find out everything I can. That’s what everyone in Detroit should be doing.

Joe D talked glowingly about Sharpe after the draft. He sounded like he just pulled a fast one on the rest of the league. He clearly did his due diligence. Sharpe is a legitimate prospect. In fact, I’m convinced that he was the best possible pick at #32 in terms of “ceiling”. According to RealGM, “Sharpe is a great athlete who has the skills to play the game like a much smaller player. He can shoot the outside shot, has a good handle, and possesses great agility in the post. He is decidedly quick-footed and is an awesome finisher at the rim. Sharpe has a nice set of skills at the mid-post and could excel here especially well.” After reading that, my only question is, what can’t he do? The Pistons got a player in the same mold—and with as much upside—as Amir Johnson. Nobody knew who Amir Johnson was when Joe D picked him and that didn’t stop him from developing into a high-potential player. Sharpe has always been rated highly as a basketball player. When he came out of high school in 2004, he was rated in the top 45 in the country.

Sharpe initially committed to Mississippi St. before off-court problems ended his Bulldog-career. He transferred to UAB and managed to play just 12 games in 2007-08. Sharpe is a big dude. He’s 6’9 and 245 lbs. When he did play, he was dominating at times. In a game last December against Rhode Island—a team that was ranked for a good portion of the year—Sharpe went for 26 points and 17 rebounds. He also scored 16 points on 7 of 10 shooting in a win at Kentucky. He is #42 (in green) in the video below.



I’m not sure how anyone could ask for more skill out of the 32nd pick. Maybe people irrationally—and possibly subconsciously—thought Joe D was going to fix all of Detroit’s ills with this one pick. That’s the only reason I can come up with that would explain all of the venom that has been directed at Joe. The more I learn about Sharpe, the better I feel about the pick.

Plus, Joe has earned the benefit of the doubt by making very good selections in the draft (outside of the lottery anyways). Here is a brief recap of what he has accomplished in the draft with the Pistons:

2000 1. 14 Mateen Cleaves
2000 2. 44 Brian Cardinal

2001 1. 9 Rodney White
2001 2. 37 Mehmet Okur

2002 1. 23 Tayshaun Prince

2003 1. 2 Darko Milicic
2003 1. 25 Carlos Delfino
2003 2. 58 Andreas Gliniadakis

2004 2. 54 Rickey Paulding

2005 1. 26 Jason Maxiell
2005 2. 56 Amir Johnson
2005 2. 60 Alex Acker

2006 1. 60 Will Blalock

2007 1. 15 Rodney Stuckey
2007 1. 27 Arron Afflalo
2007 1. 57 Sammy Mejia

2008 2. 34 Walter Sharpe
2008 2. 46 Trent Plaisted
2008 2. 59 Deron Washington

He drafted Okur, Delfino, Prince, Maxiell, Amir Johnson, Stuckey, and Afflalo with an average draft position of 30. That is incredible. He has made seven good picks (the players mentioned above) to three bad picks (Darko, White, and Cleaves). The three “bad” picks all happened at least five years ago. Granted, Joe D has made two of the worst lottery picks in NBA history with the Rodney White and Darko Milicic selections. However, his success-rate has been extraordinary when you consider where he has been drafting from.

Anyone who thought the Pistons were going to shock the world with the 29th pick needs to brush up on their draft history. It’s not like Joe picked, say, Darko Milicic when he could’ve picked, I don’t know, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, or Dwyane Wade. There should’ve been no expectations going into the draft from a fan’s perspective. Anything more than that would’ve been unfair. Even if the Pistons had a much higher selection, it’s not as if there were superstars right and left. Seattle took Russell Westbrook with the 4th overall pick! Can you imagine being a Sonics fan right now? People can say, “OMG Darko” for as long as they want but Joe has a proven record of success in the draft and I’m willing to bet that Sharpe eventually adds to his track record. And if he doesn’t, does it really matter if the Pistons blew the 34th pick in the draft? The last four players who went 32nd overall were Gabe Pruitt, Steve Novak, Daniel Ewing, and Peter John Ramos.

Making a trade won't be easy for Joe D

Joe Dumars apparently wasn’t kidding when he said that he was going to make every attempt to make a trade. He indicated this week that he has already talked to at least 10 teams and—in all discussions—he was talking about the best player on those teams. It shouldn’t be too hard to narrow down the list of teams he might have talked to. Some teams won’t trade their best player. Other teams don’t have anything the Pistons want. There is also another group of teams that can be eliminated. I have an inclination that Joe D isn’t going to move Rip; and if he does move Rip, it’s not going to be for another shooting guard. Rip isn’t flawless but there are too many flaws in the frontcourt and at point guard to focus on adding a shooting guard. This is just a hunch but I'm going to go with it. So, that also rules out teams whose best player is a shooting guard. If we eliminate the teams from those groups, we should have a pretty good idea of who Dumars talked to.

“Untouchables”

L.A. Lakers (Kobe)
Cleveland (LeBron)
San Antonio (Tim Duncan)
Boston (KG)
Orlando (Dwight Howard)
Miami (Dwyane Wade)
Portland (Greg Oden)

Not worth talking to and/or best player is SG

Seattle (Kevin Durant is probably untouchable and plays SG)
Chicago (No true stars)
New York (worst roster ever)
Milwaukee (Redd plays SG)
Philadelphia (Igoudala plays SG)
Indiana (Jermaine O’Neal makes too much)
Sacramento (Kevin Martin plays SG)
Washington (Gilbert Arenas opted-out and Jamison is a free agent)


That leaves…


The Likely Candidates

Toronto
Atlanta
New Orleans (obviously not Chris Paul who is untouchable)
Utah
Phoenix
Dallas
Denver
Golden St.
LA Clippers
Minnesota
Memphis
Houston
New Jersey
Charlotte

It would not surprise me if the above teams make up the majority of teams that Joe D has talked to. However, just because he may have talked to a team doesn’t mean that a deal is realistic. Most of these fourteen teams are unlikely trade partners for a variety of reasons.

Toronto

Chris Bosh would be an ideal addition to give the Pistons a frontcourt presence but I don’t see Toronto being interested in what the Pistons can offer. They might be interested in a Billups/Wallace/Amir Johnson deal but Toronto is close to the cap which means Detroit would have to take T.J. Ford or Rasho Nesterovic. That would give Detroit zero cap room to go after a high-level free agent. The Pistons could boast a starting lineup of Rodney Stuckey, Rip, Tayshaun, Chris Bosh, and Antonio McDyess or Jason Maxiell. That wouldn’t be such a bad thing. I don’t think Toronto would be happy with Rasheed Wallace and Andrea Bargnani in the post. They are both allergic to the paint. So, a deal with Toronto is doubtful.

Minnesota

I doubt Joe D could put together an enticing-enough package to get Al Jefferson from Minnesota. Jefferson is turning into a dominating big-man and has a fairly reasonable contract. The Pistons would have to give up Rip, Rasheed Wallace, and Maxiell/Amir Johnson just to get into the discussion and—even then—I’m not sure Minnesota would have any interest in that. Even worse, the Pistons would have to take Antoine Walker’s awful contract to offset the $26 going to Minnesota. A deal here is highly unlikely.

Memphis

Rudy Gay is turning into a star and still has three years remaining on his rookie contract. Memphis has a gazillion dollars in cap-room and could afford to take on one or two of Detroit’s bigger contracts. However, I’m not sure Rudy Gay is the answer. The Pistons would have to give up Tayshaun since they play the same position. They’d also have to give up Rasheed Wallace. Is that worth Gay? If the Pistons could sign Elton Brand, then maybe it is. Would Memphis want Tayshaun and Rasheed for Gay? Probably not.

Dallas

Mark Cuban has a man-crush on Dirk Nowitzki. He wouldn’t trade him for Shaq straight-up back in ’04. Remember, Shaq was coming off four consecutive Finals appearances and three championships. I’m not saying it was the wrong move. I’m just saying Cuban values Dirk highly. So, I doubt Dirk is available. Plus, Dallas has Jason Kidd and Josh Howard which makes Chauncey and Tayshuan undesirable for the Mavs. The pieces really don’t match up well with Dallas.

Utah

Jerry Sloan would probably commit himself to a mental ward before agreeing to add Rasheed Wallace to his team. Carlos Boozer would be a good fit but I don’t think Utah has any interest in what the Pistons have to offer. Plus, they already have the equivalent of Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace in Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko, and Carlos Boozer. I’m sure they like their threesome better.

Phoenix

Phoenix would have to be the dumbest franchise of all-time to trade Amare Stoudemire at this point. He is the only superstar-caliber player the Suns have who will be around in three years. Plus, he’s Amare-frickin’-Stoudemire. There were trade rumors last year involving Amare but that was when he and Shawn Marion weren’t getting along and—more importantly—before be bounced back from a knee injury with a 6th place finish in the MVP voting. The only hope here is that Steve Kerr continues to “go for it.” The problem from the Pistons’ end is that they would have to give up both Rasheed and Rip. This is one of the few scenarios in which Joe D might be willing to part with Rip. I suppose it’s possible that Phoenix would want Rasheed, Tayshaun, and Amir Johnson but that's wishful thinking. Any reasonable deal with Phoenix might be wishful thinking especially considering the way Phoenix tried to rip-off Detroit last year when they offered Shawn Marion for two starters and two First Round draft picks. Phoenix is way over the cap and isn’t interested in adding to the payroll. So, the Pistons would have to be willing to take Boris Diaw. That would eliminate any possibility of bringing in a big-name via free agency. The Pistons would be left with a starting lineup of Billups, Stuckey, Prince, Diaw, and Stoudemire. The Suns would be left with a starting lineup of Nash, Rip, Raja Bell, Rasheed, and Shaq. Who gets the better end of that deal? The Pistons would certainly look better long-term. Phoenix would look better short-term. A deal here is possible but unlikely.

LA Clippers

The Clippers have one player the Pistons could badly use and that’s Elton Brand. Brand can opt-out of his contract this summer but I would be shocked if he did. He is in line to make $16 million next season which is probably more than teams are going to offer a guy just returning from a torn Achilles tendon. If he stays with the Clippers and has a productive ’08-’09, he will have a huge payday coming next year. So, the only way I see Brand in a Pistons uniform next season is via a sign-and-trade. Last week, I laid out a scenario in which the Pistons could send Billups and Rasheed to the Clippers for Brand and Brevin Knight. The only way I would make this trade is if the Pistons could sign someone like Gilbert Arenas via free agency.

Golden St.

Golden St’s best player is either Baron Davis or Monta Ellis. I like Baron Davis. He would be a much-needed upgrade over Billups. However, he makes too much money. Ellis is a free agent that Golden St. will likely re-sign and keep. He is a star-in-the-making. Golden St. has always needed a big-man and Rasheed might fit their style but without getting a competent big-man in return (since GS doesn’t have one), I don’t see how the Pistons could fill the void left in the frontcourt. Joe D might have made a call here but it becomes obvious pretty quickly that there isn’t much that can be done with the Warriors.

Denver

On one hand, the Carmelo-to-Detroit trade rumors make some sense. Carmelo is a young superstar who would provide the Pistons much-needed scoring. On the other hand, trading for Carmelo makes absolutely no sense. The Pistons would have to trade Rasheed and Chauncey at a minimum. Second, Carmelo and Prince play the same position. I wouldn’t be against trying a lineup with them alternating at the three and four-spots but I’m not sure it’s a gamble that Joe D would be willing to take. Both would clearly be overmatched by the better 4s in the league. So, Detroit would have to give up Rasheed, Chauncey, and Tayshuan which is too much for Carmelo. The trade proposed by Woody Paige of the Denver columnist of Carmelo, Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, and Chucky Atkins for Rasheed, Chauncey, Tayshaun and a First-Round draft pick probably sounds good to him but, to me, it sounds like the Pistons would just become the Denver Nuggets. Ask the people of Denver how that worked out for them this year. Carmelo wouldn’t be a bad fit but I don’t see how he gets to Detroit. There are too many obstacles. Plus, he’s not easy to root for.

New Orleans

If I were Joe D, I would be calling New Orleans everyday. I would offer Rasheed, Tayshaun, Amir Johnson, and a First-Round draft pick for David West and Peja Stojakovic (Peja would be need to off-set salary-differences plus he’s good). I’m not sure if New Orleans would have any interest in that deal but it’s worth a try. West is a beast. He is probably the best inside/outside post-player in the NBA right now. Plus, his salary is a joke. The Pistons would be left with a starting lineup of Billups, Rip, Peja, West, and mid-level player like Antonio McDyess. New Orleans would be left with a starting lineup of Chris Paul, Morris Peterson, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace, and Tyson Chandler. New Orleans would be the best defensive team in the NBA. Plus, it would allow them to shed Peja’s hefty contract. My guess is New Orleans is more than happy with their current roster and they would rebuff this sort of offer from the Pistons.

Atlanta

The Hawks have a number of valuable pieces but I’m not sure the Pistons have anything the Hawks are looking for. Josh Smith is a superstar in the making but, again, I’m not sure the Pistons could offer something the Hawks would be interested in. In the next year or two, I expect the Hawks to package two or three of their assets for a superstar. They can put together some of the best trade offers in the league.

Houston

You’re first inclination when you see “Houston” is probably Tracy McGrady. He makes way too much money for the Pistons to take on his contract. I’m thinking more about Yao Ming. I realize there are a number of factors that need to be considered. Yao is constantly injured. He hasn’t played more than 57 games in each of the last three seasons. Houston probably puts a premium on Yao’s value because he’s one of the most marketable players in the NBA. So, I’m not even sure Houston would deal him. However, when healthy, Yao is a very formidable player. His sheer size makes it difficult for the opposition to have success in the post. He is a good shooter and a very good free-throw shooter. Most importantly, Yao lives in the post. He doesn’t coast like Rasheed. The numbers for a Yao trade would match-up pretty well. The Pistons could offer Rasheed, Billups, and a First Round draft pick for Yao and Bobby Jackson. I’m not sure how happy Houston would be with that deal but I’m pretty sure that would make the Rockets a better basketball team. Billups, McGrady, Battier, Luis Scola, and Rasheed Wallace would be a pretty formidable lineup. The Pistons would be left with Stuckey, Rip, Tayshaun, McDyess/Amir Johnson and Yao. They’d also have a ton of cap room to pursue a free agent in ’09. The Pistons would all of a sudden be an up-and-coming team.

New Jersey

A trade proposed by ESPN's Chad Ford would be somewhat interesting. He suggests the Pistons should trade Rasheed and Tayshuan for Richard Jefferson, Nenad Krstic, and the #10 pick in the draft. The Pistons would be left with Billups, Rip, Jefferson, Krstic, and McDyess/Maxiell. The Pistons would be able to hold on to Stuckey, Maxiell, and Amir Johnson. They would also be in great shape cap-wise. The Nets would sure-up substantial cap-room for next year when Rasheed would come off the books. Ford suggests that the Nets would like to make a deal like this to get into the Lebron sweepstakes in 2010. There is no way LeBron is going to sign with the Nets no matter how much money they have. The Pistons would get the better end of this deal. I don't see New Jersey being interested.

Charlotte

Ford proposes another trade with Charlotte that doesn't sound as good as the New Jersey-trade. He suggests the Pistons should ship Rasheed and Tayshaun for Gerald Wallace, Adam Morrison, Sean May, and the #9 pick in the draft. Morrison and May would come off the books after this season. They are essentially throw-ins. Would you rather have Gerald Wallace and the #9 pick or Richard Jefferson, Nenad Krstic (who is a formidable frontcourt player) and the #10 pick? The NJ deal would be my preference but--if NJ rebuffs that offer as I expect--this deal does have some appeal. The Pistons would be barren in the frontcourt for next season but would be in pretty good shape talent-wise and cap-wise for the long-term. The only thing that makes me worry about a deal with NJ or Charlotte is that the Pistons would be giving up their two best defensive players in Tayshaun and Rasheed. Gerald Wallace and Richard Jefferson are decent defenders but the Pistons would initially see a huge dropoff in their post-defense. It's worth a shot, though, since what they had before wasn't working.

Blow 'em up

The Pistons lost in the Conference Finals for the third consecutive year surprising nobody. It’s clearly time for a change. It was time for a change in 2006 when they were embarrassed by the Heat in the Conference Finals. It was time for a change in 2007 when they were embarrassed by the Cavs in the Conference Finals. Joe-D kept trying to “plug the square peg into the round hole” two years too long, in my opinion. I don’t necessarily blame him for milking the current roster as long as possible. It’s much easier to do nothing when you know you’re going to sell-out every game whether you make a move or not. Instead of opting for the always-dangerous overhaul, he simply tried to convince Pistons fans that his team was one attitude-adjustment away from winning another NBA Championship. The “attitude” excuse—albeit a legit one—was just a convenient way to hide the fact that the Pistons just weren’t good enough.

The Problems

Demanding change is one thing. Anyone and everyone can demand change. Providing viable options for change is what people should be focusing on. The easiest way to do that is to identify why the Pistons failed. Everyone knows about the problem the Pistons have had with motivation. That certainly contributed to the playoff failures. It was always somewhat apparent but it became clear this season that Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups are the two biggest culprits in that regard. Their indifference on the court has cost the Pistons dearly over the last three years. However, the biggest problems have more to do with X’s and O’s than attitude. There are three fundamental problems that have relegated the Pistons to Eastern Conference Finals doormats…1). They have no offensive post-presence 2). They have nobody who can penetrate and 3). They are a jump-shooting team without good jump-shooters. For the Pistons to have any chance at an NBA Championship in the near future, those areas absolutely must be addressed.

The Culprits

A lot has been made lately of Rasheed Wallace’s temper and Detroit’s motivation-level. In fact, some of the local newspapers ran stories about how Wallace’s ability to keep his emotions in check was the key to beating Boston. It would be great if basketball were so simple. The key to beating Boston was Rasheed planting his butt in the paint every minute of every game and Billups creating off the dribble. Seeing how KG fueled Boston’s offense was torture because he showed us exactly what we weren’t getting from Rasheed. Three things happen as a result of having an offensive presence in the post. 1). You get easy buckets. 2). You get the other team in foul trouble and 3). You demand double teams which free up your shooters. Boston got the benefit of all three thanks to KG. The Pistons got none of it no thanks to Rasheed. That needs to change. Rasheed and Billups are cancers for the Pistons and it has nothing to do with their attitudes. Apathetic play from the point-guard and power-forward positions is devastating for a team. It’s bad enough that the Pistons are trying to be a jump-shooting team with poor shooters. It’s even worse when nobody draws a help defender to get your poor shooters an open shot. The Pistons are a tremendously flawed team. It’s amazing that they were able to make it to the Conference Finals with so much dysfunction in their game-plan. I’m not the biggest Rip Hamilton fan because he is a turnover machine but the Pistons would be lost without him. He is the only player who does anything to stretch the defense. Rip attracts so much attention from constantly running around screens that he is occasionally able to offset the fact that Rasheed and Chauncey are stationary. Rip has been the MVP of the Pistons for six years running and he deserves recognition for that.

Joe D Needs to be Proactive

Boston and LA have proven something that everyone already knew. You win NBA Championships with superstars who can score inside and outside. LA was nothing with just Kobe. They teamed him with Pau Gasol and now they are a juggernaut. Boston was nothing with just Paul Pierce. They teamed him with KG and Ray Allen and now they are a juggernaut. The best teams in the league are too talented for a team like Detroit to try to win solely with the “team” mentality. Joe D needs to infuse Detroit’s lineup with players who make things difficult for the opposition. He needs to bring in players who can be counted on to score. In the NBA, “the early bird gets the worm” when it comes to trades. That’s why there have been horribly lopsided trades over the last few years We saw it with Memphis and LA. The Lakers got Gasol for nothing. They were probably the only team sniffing around mid-season and were rewarded for their efforts. The Pistons got Rasheed for nothing in ’04. They were probably the only team making the effort and wound up with a Championship as a result. The Celtics didn’t exactly get KG for nothing but they clearly made the effort. They showed Minnesota they were interested and were the lead-suitors the whole time. Joe D needs to identify who he wants and then make it happen. The longer he waits, the more likely another team will make a move first. There are only so many impact players available around the league.

The Fix

As I’ve discussed, the Pistons need two things badly...1). an offensive post-presence and 2). a proactive point guard. As recently as last year, there were a number of talented power-forwards stuck on bad teams. Bad teams, of course, are the most likely to trade good players. The Gasol and KG trades changed all that. Now, there is really only one option left and it’s a pretty good one: Elton Brand. The Clippers are terrible. There have been rumors of them shopping Brand for the last few years. He is a monster in the paint. He gets easy baskets and owns the boards. He would be the perfect antidote for the Pistons' paint-woes. The problem is that he has a player-option for next season at $16 million. I would expect him to take the option. So, the Pistons would have to trade for him. I would be more than willing to trade Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace for Brand. I’m not sure what the Clippers would think of that offer but Rasheed would provide them with a). a replacement for Brand and b). an expiring contract for next season. Billups would give them an All-Star point guard at a position that is desperately in need of an upgrade. I don’t see how the Clippers wouldn’t be interested in that trade. A Billups, Rasheed, Maggette, Al Thornton, Chris Kaman starting-lineup has to look pretty good to them. That team might even be better than this year's Pistons.

My next move would be to contact Gilbert Arenas. Arenas has stated that he will opt-out of his current contract this summer to pursue a more lucrative deal for 2008 and beyond. Joe D should hard-sell Arenas on the idea that the Pistons would have a legitimate chance (not like the “legitimate” chance they supposedly had this year) of winning an NBA Championship. Arenas wants to “break the bank” but his knee-issue will likely keep teams from giving him as much money as he is looking for. The Pistons should offer him something in the $14 or $15 million range and sell him on the idea that the Wizards will keep losing to Cleveland every year while the Pistons would have a dynamic line-up capable of beating anyone.

If Joe D can pull of both moves, that would leave the Pistons with a starting lineup of Arenas, RIP, Tayshaun Prince, Jason Maxiell, and Elton Brand. Rip becomes the second scoring-option which would be great for everyone involved. They’d have one of the top scorers in the NBA at point guard. The Pistons might actually have the best backcourt in the NBA (not like the “best” backcourt that they supposedly had this year). They’d have rebounding machines in the post in Brand and Maxiell. They’d have an offensive-post force in Brand. It would also allow Prince to do what he’s supposed to do which is be a role player. Prince is one of the most valuable role-players in the NBA. He can be a great fourth scoring-option especially when he has a mismatch. At 6’9, with a 7’2 wingspan, Prince gives the Pistons a tremendous advantage defensively and on on the boards at small-forward. He has taken a lot of heat for not “stepping up” but he isn’t supposed to step up. He is the perfect complimentary player. This avenue would also allow Detroit to keep its talented core of young players in tact. The bench is already cheap and talented. Rodney Stuckey, Jarvis Hayes (assuming the Pistons choose to re-sign him), Amir Johnson, and Arron Afflalo are all young and making next to nothing. The Pistons have plenty of money to fit both Arenas and Brand under the cap with room to spare.

One idea that is being floated around is that Joe D might just be inclined to ride out the current contracts of his “stars” and simply be content with turning the future over to Stuckey, Maxiell, and Amir Johnson. If he opts for that route, the Pistons won’t sniff the Finals for years. To win in the NBA, you need superstars and you need an inside/outside game. You need proactive players. You need a post-presence. If you don't have those things, then you have to go out and get them. Joe D just has to realize he has nothing to lose.

Potential 2008-09 lineup:

PG Gilbert Arenas
SG Rip Hamilton
SF Tayshaun Prince
PF Jason Maxiell
C Elton Brand

Bench:

Rodney Stuckey
Arron Afflalo
Jarvis Hayes
Amir Johnson
Cheikh Samb
Lindsey Hunter

Bench or Bust

So Flip Saunders spent 82 games molding and incorporating the bench into the game-plan for that? Flip swore things would be different this year. He swore that the Pistons would need to use the bench to have success in the playoffs. I’m not shocked that he didn’t stay true to his word. I didn’t actually believe him. It’s just disappointing to have to go through this crap yet again. As far as I’m concerned, Flip’s primary purpose of giving so many minutes to the bench in the regular season was just one giant ploy to get Lindsey Hunter ready for game one of the NBA playoffs. Hunter only played 12+ minutes in five games all season. Yet, there he was in game one against Philly as the primary backup to Billups playing 12 minutes. Don’t be misled by the box score that says Rodney Stuckey played 13 minutes. Stuckey did, in fact, play 13 minutes but don’t confuse that with a vote of confidence or an actual meaningful contribution. Stuckey took all of one shot in those 13 minutes. He averaged 19 minutes per game in the regular season and was the catalyst for the second unit all season. Jarvis Hayes averaged 16 minutes per game in the regular season. He played five minutes against Philly and took all of one shot. Amir Johnson didn’t even play. Jason Maxiell played 30 minutes but that was out of necessity rather than choice. Don’t let Max’s minutes fool you. Antonio McDyess and his sudden irrelevance meant Max needed to play for the Pistons to have any presence on the glass or in the paint. The rest of the bench combined to play 36 minutes. Bottom line: the bench was predictably shelved for game one of the playoffs.

I’ve been saying all season that this team cannot win without using the bench heavily. The Pistons’ bench is the most influential second unit in the NBA for one reason and one reason only: it actually motivates the starters to play well. Most first units in the NBA don’t need to be manipulated into playing well. The Pistons—as everyone knows by now—are a different story. They have proven time and time again that they cannot find their own motivation. They are bored of themselves. All season, the second unit has been the antidote to that problem. The bench has infused energy and excitement into the second and third quarters. They have kept the starters fresh and—most importantly—motivated for the fourth quarter. The Pistons lost to Philly in game one because Flip didn’t use the bench. The starters built a 15-point lead and didn’t have the urgency to finish it off. The bench wouldn’t have exploded for a million points or saved the Pistons at the end of the game. The bench merely would’ve kept the starters from losing total interest in the game in the fourth quarter which clearly happened. When Philly punched Detroit in the mouth in the 4th quarter, the starters responded with as much fury and effectiveness as a toothless, dead, squirrel. They never respected Philly enough to actually think they might lose. The longer the starters are out on the floor, the more disinterested they become. They had hammered Philly all game and didn’t feel threatened even when the game got close. I believe they would’ve been hungrier and sharper had the bench gotten its fair share of minutes throughout the game. The starters are head cases. They need to be treated as such. They need to be tricked into playing well.

I was hoping that Flip would understand the importance that this particular bench has to this particular team. For most teams, the bench is a device to give starters rest. For the Pistons, the bench is a device to keep the starters focused. The various mix-and-match lineups the Pistons played throughout the season gave the starters an obvious boost of excitement. The starters seemed to enjoy playing with the younger, more energetic bench. When Joe D refused to take note of the huge, neon signs pointing to irrevocable complacency the last two seasons and came back with the same stale team in 2007-08, he had to know that this team needed a catalyst. The most ridiculous thing about this whole deal is that the Pistons have the perfect bench to be that catalyst. The starters responded to the bench’s contributions all season. The starters looked to have more fun and played some of the best per-minute basketball of their careers. Flip had constructed the perfect balance between the starters and bench. It was all set up perfectly for the playoffs.

I don’t want to eliminate the possibility that there was some actual thought behind muting the bench in game one. There is one reasonable explanation for what transpired against Philly. The Sixers are a “run ’n gun” team. They like to get out in transition and push the ball up court. The Pistons’ bench just so happens to be a “run ‘n gun” bench. So, it is possible that Flip feared that Stuckey and Co. would get tricked into playing Philly’s style and blow it. I don’t agree with that reasoning. Stuckey, Amir, Hayes, and Max have been running all season and they are every bit as good as Willie Green, Louis Williams, and Reggie Evans. They are more than capable of holding their own against a 40-42 basketball team. If Flip can’t trust his bench against those guys, then they shouldn’t even be on the roster. However, at least that sort of reasoning would be above caveman-level thinking. I fear that the actual explanation doesn’t have anywhere near that sort of insight. If I had to guess, the reason Flip benched the bench in game one was because he didn’t think the bench could handle playoff-basketball. If Flip hasn’t realize by now that the starters have irreparable motivation issues, then this team is in serious trouble and Flip needs to be canned. More of the same doesn’t work when “the same” sucks. If Flip doesn’t start dishing out major minutes to the bench in game two and beyond, he is much worse than I ever thought possible. As much blame as there is for Flip, Joe D deserves some as well. If this season hasn’t proved that he needs to make a major move, then I’m not sure he is a slick as most—including myself—think he is. The Pistons starting five is the most boring collection of basketball players that I have ever seen. It hurts to watch them attempt to have fun playing with each other.

The Pistons can and will beat Philly with their tired lackadaisical attitude. They can and will beat Orlando in the second round with the same indifferent disposition. However, instead of winning in four games and five games respectively like they should, they’ll be pushed to the brink in both series. Boston will destroy Atlanta and Cleveland and they’ll be rested and waiting to do the same to the Pistons. The only way the starters are going to be rested enough and motivated enough to have a chance against Boston is to get the bench involved now. Flip should make it a point to not play his starters more than 32 minutes each in game two. He is coaching as if he has something to lose. This team hasn’t won anything since 2004. This team is stale and ineffective. It’s time for Flip to stop acting as if he’s got the ’86 Celtics in his lineup. The Pistons don’t have the best starting lineup in the NBA. That hasn’t been the case since 2004. Flip’s only chance is to go with what worked in the regular season. It’s bench or bust, baby.

Celtics over Pistons is inevitable

I can’t say I’m happy to see the NBA regular season come to an end. The Pistons have had a brilliant season. They have already secured at least the 4th best record in franchise history and could reach 60-wins for only the third time in franchise history. The starters are fresh and rested for a long playoff run. Rodney Stuckey is turning into an impact player. Right now, the experts would say the Pistons have as good of a chance as any team to win the NBA Championship. From a fan-perspective, this is as good as it gets. You’re probably thinking to yourself, “this guy is crazy, winning the championship is as good as it gets.” Well, I agree if that were possible. This is where the record player comes to a screeching halt and everyone in the virtual room looks at me, venom spewing. The rest of this post isn’t going to be very popular in these parts but that’s OK. The Pistons have a chance of winning the NBA Championship like the Orlando Magic have a chance of winning the NBA Championship. Technically, both teams are going to the playoffs and have non-zero chances of winning the NBA Title. While I have no doubt that the Pistons are better than the Magic, I also have no doubt—like the Magic—the Pistons have almost no chance--by almost no chance I mean 10% or less--of beating the Boston Celtics in a playoff series. If LeBron and Co. can knock off the Celtics in the second round—which is also highly doubtful—then the Pistons might have a shot at making it to the finals. Until that happens though, the Pistons are going to come up short again for much of the same reasons they’ve come up short the last three years and a few new ones. Those reasons go something like this…

1). Go-to scorers count is zero

Everyone knows about Boston’s “Big Three” and Detroit’s “Best Starting Five in the NBA.” What everyone doesn’t know is that they don’t cancel each other out. Boston has a huge advantage and it has nothing to do with its bench. Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen are big-time scorers who can create their own shots, demand double teams, and get to the line. Boston has it easy in crunch-time. They will hit big shots and they will not experience droughts at the end of games. The Pistons are a completely different story. The Pistons have no crunch-time scorers. They rely totally on jump shots. Sure, at times, Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace can get hot and take over a game. But, they are nowhere near as reliable as Boston’s “Big Three”. If we assume that every game in a Detroit-Boston series is going to go down to the wire, then that means Boston will have the advantage in every game. Their points will come easier thus they will win. This shouldn’t be a shock to anyone especially Flip Saunders who subtly supports my assertion…

“We got players that are very unselfish, and we got players that know in order for them to be successful that other players have to help them make plays. And, we just don’t have that one guy that can isolate on the floor and go one on five, basically, and try to create an opportunity for themselves either on a score or at the free throw line.”

An “unselfish” team without players who can “create an opportunity for themselves” might be good enough to tear up the regular season on its way to 60 wins but it isn’t good enough to advance beyond the Eastern Conference Finals let alone win an NBA Championship—at least not this year. I know the Pistons won an NBA Championship in 2004 but that was clearly “right place, right time.” The ’04 Nets and Pacers are nothing like the ‘08 Cavs and Celtics. Or—more appropriately—Jason Kidd and Jermaine O’Neal are nothing like LeBron James and "The Boston Three Party."

2). Don’t buy the “Pistons + Road = Good” garbage.

I know the fans, media, and even the Pistons love to spout off statistics about how they are 3-1 when they don’t have home-court advantage in the playoffs since 2004. Sometimes statistics don’t mean anything and this one is one of them. How does the following statistic sound? The Pistons haven’t won a playoff series in which they didn’t have home-court advantage since 2005. Beating Boston is difficult enough but having to do it on the road is nearly impossible. The Pistons are good enough to not get rattled on the road but that will only keep them in the game at the end. I’ve already discussed Boston’s huge advantage if it comes to that.

3). The Pistons don’t have a “next level.”

Playoff basketball is much different than regular season basketball. I know I risk being nominated for the “most obvious comment of all-time” award by saying that but it’s worth noting. Other teams—like the Cavs—are much more difficult to beat in the playoffs than they are in the regular season. The Pistons had little trouble with the Cavs last year until the playoffs. The Pistons won the season-series 3-1 and looked to have a huge advantage heading into their Eastern Conference Finals match-up. The Pistons quickly found out that the Cavs are more intense and value each possession more in the playoffs. The same thing happened in the 2006 Eastern Conference Finals. The Pistons were caught off guard by Miami’s brand of playoff basketball. The NBA is a league of stars. Those stars—presuming they are on good teams—take over in the playoffs. Tim Duncan took over the 2005 Finals. Dwyane Wade took over the 2006 Eastern Conference Finals. LeBron James took over the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals. It doesn’t take a lot of imagining to get to KG or Paul Pierce, or Ray Allen taking over the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals. This wouldn’t be such a big deal if the Pistons had their own brand of playoff basketball. Unfortunately, they don’t. In fact, I think the Pistons actually play slightly worse in the playoffs. Maybe it’s just an allusion because other teams play better or maybe it’s because they don’t have a go-to player who takes his game to the next level but I don’t think the Pistons are equipped to succeed in the playoffs.

None of this makes me happy. I wish the regular season was infinite. I love watching the bench. I love watching two starters mesh perfectly with three reserves. All of that stuff will come to an end in the playoffs. Flip Saunders has said that the Pistons could go 10-deep in the playoffs but I’ll have to see that to believe it. Plus, Boston’s “Big Three” play the whole game. They are in amazing shape. They are more motivated than any team in the league. In past series, the Pistons have had the luxury of getting breaks when Shaquille O’Neal had to sit. That won’t happen in this series. It will be “all Big Three all of the time.”

Feel free to disagree right now and feel free to come back in two months and berate me for “not believing.” If the Pistons beat the Celtics—with both teams healthy—then I will deserve everything reasonable (tasteful verbal jabs) that comes my way. I just don’t see it happening and I’m not going to pretend that I do. Things would’ve been slightly different if Boston didn’t pull the trigger on the KG trade. The Pistons would be major favorites to advance to the Finals. Just remember, that was the case last year and the Pistons still couldn’t get it done. This year, the path is considerably harder. The most satisfying brand of Pistons basketball that you will see until next season will take place over the final six regular season games. There will be no stress and the bench will get major minutes. I highly suggest you tune in. I’m pretty sure I know how the playoffs are going to end. One last warning: don’t be fooled when the Pistons look like the ’96 Bulls in the first two rounds.

Memo to Flip: Don't bench the bench in the playoffs

I’m sure the rest of the league has noticed that the Pistons have put together a 10-game winning streak but I’m not sure if people are noticing the manner in which they have done it. The starters are playing fewer minutes than ever thus they are more productive than ever thus the team is better than ever (sans 2004). Fewer starter minutes=better team? Who would’ve thought? Those of you who had little-to-no hope of Pistons glory for 2007-08 (like me) will no doubt be shocked by a totally unexpected development. The Pistons have the most important bench in the NBA. In fact, it is so good that it not only extends leads but has done the unthinkable: inspire the starters! Flip Saunders need to continue to play the bench in the same capacity throughout the playoffs to have a shot at the NBA Title. My concern is that Saunders might not be able to bring himself to do such a thing.

During the ten game-winning streak, the bench has averaged 95 minutes per game. That is close to 20 minutes more than what it was averaging before the streak. The bench has provided a number of important advantages that have allowed the team to gel and work at—what I believe to be—its optimum level. Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton have seen their shooting percentages sky-rocket to career-bests this season. There is every reason to think that is due to being more rested when they’re on the court or, put another way, firing up fewer shots when they’re fatigued.

This Pistons bench isn’t your average NBA bench. This bench speeds up the game offensively and defensively which contrasts the methodical style of the starters. Billups has nicknamed them the “Zoo Crew” because they are like caged Lions when they hit the floor. The bench wears out the opposition and does it while playing very good basketball. Over the ten-game winning streak, the bench has outscored the opposition by 115 points. With their bench in the game, the Pistons have extended leads by an average of 12 points per game. That is a luxury that few teams, if any, have in the NBA right now. Amazingly, the average age of the primary contributors off the bench is 22.6. That means two very important things and one not-so-good thing. 1). These guys have plenty of “legs” to burn. 2). They will surely develop into even better players. 3). And, of course, other teams will overpay for them in free agency.

Those of you who have watched the Pistons throughout the winning streak know that the starters have played at a more efficient level. They "drop the hammer" from the opening tip. They rarely look sloppy. There is no question that with fewer minutes, they aren’t as bored and, probably more importantly, are well rested. The massive increase in minutes for the bench has also had a little-noticed but possibly very important additional effect. The starters have been matched up with different combinations of bench players and it appears that they are inspired by playing with these new groups or configurations. I don’t think the importance of motivation or enthusiasm on this team can be properly underscored. Anything that gets the starters out of their comfort or boredom zone is crucial.

I’m reserved to the likely fact that Saunders will revert to form come playoff time by stapling Jason Maxiell, Rodney Stuckey, and Co. to the bench. I’m sure the words “youth” and “playoffs” make Saunders uncomfortable. However, I am imploring Saunders to reconsider. Anything short of sticking with what the Pistons are doing right now will result in another LeBron-style exit from the playoffs. This team can win a championship but it cannot do it without the bench playing big-time minutes. If he realizes this team plays at its optimum level when the bench is getting 90+ minutes a game, then look out come June.

A three-for-one special

First and foremost, I hope everyone out there is off to a great start to the New Year. I don’t mind sounding cliché by saying, “Operation: lose gut” starts today. I’m sending out an open invitation to Shaun Rogers. If he wants in on my New Year’s resolution, he’s more than welcome. There are a number of things on my mind related to the Detroit sports scene. I can’t decide what I want to focus on right now so I’ll give you a three-for-one…


Carr Finally Opens up the Offense in Game 162

Michigan’s win over Florida in the Capital One Bowl Citrus Bowl was unexpected for a million reasons that have nothing to do with the talent of either team. In ESPN’s Bowl Mania, 91% of the 300,000 participants picked Florida to win with an insane amount of confidence. In some ways, Michigan’s win only reaffirms what many have felt for quite a long time: Michigan has underachieved too often because of poor coaching. I’m happy for Lloyd Carr and the seniors. This game will go down in Michigan history as one of the most meaningful. But, I can’t help but to ask where that game-plan has been before now. I also can’t help but to think that Carr only had the courage to install such a game-plan because it was his last game. It was almost as if he finally said, “What do we have to lose? Let’s go for it.”

Well, what did Michigan ever have to lose? Carr has always had the athletes to open things up. The option to pass-first and run-second has always been there. Instead, Carr tortured fans for a number of years with a stale game-plan that minimized Michigan’s talent advantage. For years, I’ve pined for Michigan to start off games in the two-minute type offense that has yielded so many scores during second-half comeback attempts. Michigan fans have begged for Carr to abandon the ineffective run-first mentality for a pass-first mentality that opens up the running game. Michigan fans have pleaded for Carr to take advantage of his annual wide receiver bounty by using the middle of the field and throwing vertical instead of the annoyingly ineffective horizontal patterns that have plagued his offensive game-plans. For all of those things to finally be implemented during his last game—just before the program was about to undergo a major facelift—is akin to Carr saying, “F U!” to every Michigan-fan.

Michigan showed everyone in the Citrus Bowl that the lofty expectations that have been placed on the program by fans and media have not been unreasonable. They were simply unattainable without the proper game-plan. Carr never could’ve opened up the offense for the long-term. It was only a one-time deal. That is why it was time for him to retire. Rich Rodriguez is going to do a lot of good things at Michigan. I don’t know what the extent of his success will be but I can assure you that he won’t wait until the last game of his career to give his team the best chance to win. I enjoyed the game for a multitude of reasons but it was bitter-sweet for just as many.


This Pistons-team Looks Familiar

The Pistons are playing at an unbelievable level right now. The weird thing is that despite the team being considerably better than it was last season, there hasn’t been a single ounce of improvement in the starting five. Those guys have been their consistently-good selves. The change in the team’s potency has been entirely due to the bench. I don’t have a problem admitting that I like watching the bench more than the starters. Joe Dumars deserves all of the credit in the world for making the Pistons championship contenders again without the aid of a significant trade. It was evident after last season that the Pistons weren’t good enough to win a championship in their current form. In fact, the future looked downright gloomy as the Pistons were bounced from the playoffs in embarrassing fashion for the second consecutive year. Joe D explored trade opportunities but didn’t find anything to his liking. He didn’t take .50 on the dollar for one of his stars when nothing was available which is certainly commendable.

Instead, he focused on improving the bench and he has done a miraculous job at doing so. Dumars started by drafting Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo in the first round. Both players are playing big roles. Stuckey is a Dwyane Wade-type player in his ability to get by his defender. He has tremendous athleticism which allows him to get to the hole and finish or draw a foul. He can run the point despite spending his college career as a shooting guard. Stuckey will play a crucial role in the playoffs but he’ll be a bona fide starting combo guard (i.e. Wade) in the NBA within a few years. Afflalo came out of UCLA as a ready-made NBA player; it’s just that nobody knew it at the time. He is as fundamentally solid as a rookie can get. He knows exactly what he can and can’t do. He is an above-average defender who can shoot. Stuckey and Afflalo were godsends for the Pistons and provide hope for the future beyond Chauncey and Rip.

Jason Maxiell’s development continues to improve exponentially. He is one of the best rebounders in the league. He can shoot from 15’. He is as explosive around the rim as any player in the league. He is unquestionably my favorite player to watch. His dunk-backs are thunderous and demoralizing for the defense. He is already better and more effective than Ben Wallace ever was and that’s not meant to be a dis on Ben. I don’t think most people feel comfortable admitting that because Ben was such an icon in Detroit but Ben was also a “system” player who was one of the worst offensive players in the history of the league. Max does everything well. The Pistons don’t need him to start but if he did, I think it would be evident to everyone that he is a better all-around player. Amir Johnson is finally getting some minutes because the Pistons have handed out so many beat-downs over the last month. I think he will continue to improve. I’m not sure where his ceiling is but he should be a solid contributor off the bench as the season moves along.

The best bench player might just be Jarvis Hayes who Dumars quietly added for the bottom dollar price of $1.2 million just before the season started. Hayes is extremely versatile. He struggled with his shot after a good start to the season but he has bounced back big-time. At 6'8, he is extremely effective posting up smaller players. He can hit the “three” at an impressive rate (42%). Most people would be surprised to know that Hayes was a top ten pick just four years ago. He is probably what Dumars was hoping for when he signed Maurice Evans two years ago. Lindsey Hunter is still a defensive hound. Come playoff time, he’ll combine with Stuckey and Afflalo to give teams fits. When that second unit gets in there, it is like a pack of wild dogs. That sort of tenacity is what Hunter and Mike James provided the Pistons in 2004 on their way to the NBA title.

The bench was dynamite even before Dumars flipped Nazr Mohammed for Walter Herrmann and Primo Brezec. Neither player puts the Pistons over the top but both have ability. Herrmann is a dynamic player who mysteriously lost out on playing-time in Charlotte after averaging 18 points per game over the last 17 games of the 2006 season. Brezec is a big-body who seems to love diving for loose balls that have already gone out-of-bounds. Most importantly, Dumars was able to dump the remaining four years of Mohammed’s unfriendly salary. I didn’t think there was any way the Pistons could improve this season without moving one—if not more—of the starters for a superstar. Dumars proved me wrong by overhauling the bench. Now, the Pistons are playing the best basketball in the NBA while simultaneously playing their starters an average of three minutes less per game than last season.

An amazing side-note: the Pistons don’t have a single player making enough money to crack the top 30 salaries in the league. The Pistons also boast and underwhelming payroll of $65 million which is good for 17th in the league. One point that needs to be underscored is that while the moves Dumars has made have greatly enhanced the bench and freed up payroll obligations, they also give the Pistons a bevy of commodities if/when he wants to pull the trigger on a major trade. That won’t need to happen this season but Maxiell, Stuckey, Johnson, and Afflalo could be put together in some sort of combination to net a supreme player. Hopefully, the Pistons will never need to do that but it’s better to have the option just in case. Having highly sought after commodities is something new for the Pistons. I’m not sure how this season is going to end but I can say—with certainty—that the Pistons actually have a chance at the championship which is more than I can say for last year’s team. And as usual, we owe it all to Joe Dumars.


The “Genius” has Mercifully Left the Building

For every 50 things the Lions do wrong, they do one thing right. That one thing came in the form of firing Mike Martz. There has never existed a more un-genius genius in the history of geniuses. Martz single-handedly destroyed the Lions offense in 2007 by making it a no-trick pony. I’m not going to try to convince anyone that Jon Kitna is a great quarterback or that the Lions had anything short of a terrible offensive line. However, never running the football is idiotic regardless of personnel. Martz followed up his brilliant 2006 campaign in which he produced a 32:68 run/pass ratio with an almost equally inept 34:66 ratio in ’07. The Lions had the fewest rushing attempts in NFL history in 2006 and the 6th fewest in 2007. No team in history has run the ball less over a two-year stretch. As you might have guessed, that sort of ridiculous ratio combined with a brutal offensive line meant Lions quarterbacks were sacked 54 times which was one off the league-lead. To be fair, that was quite an improvement from the 63 sacks given up in 2006. So, yay for that! Despite the miraculous nine-sack improvement orchestrated by Martz, Kitna was battered all year. The offense was ambushed every game as if because the defense knew what was coming. Martz’s ineptness was never more evident than it was at Arizona in a must-win game for the Lions. The Cardinals defense dominated the Lions from the first snap to the last because Martz allowed the Cardinals to rush the quarterback every play without consequence.

Part of the allure of throwing first is the idea that it will make it easier to run by keeping defenses honest. Martz didn’t care whether they were honest and evidently didn’t care how terribly predictable and inept he had made his offense. When word started to come down that Martz was going to be axed, I read more than a few complaints defending him by suggesting that he turned Kitna into a 4,000 yard-passer as if only a genius could do such a thing. What good is 4,000 yards anyways if it’s accompanied by an 80.7 QB rating? It would be incredibly difficult for Kitna not to throw 4,000 yards with a 32:68 run/pass ratio. Martz also effectively sidelined Calvin Johnson for the entire season which accomplished absolutely nothing. Martz was a plague. He certainly wasn’t the only thing that was wrong with the Lions. But, aside from William Clay Ford, Matt Millen (Here is a good one: Jeff Backus was the 5th highest paid player in the NFL in 2006; please don’t wait for the punch-line because that wasn’t a joke), and Shaun Rogers’ strict no-cardio workout regiment, he was the most obvious thing that was wrong. With Martz out of the picture, the Lions can now shed the whole “it takes a quarterback three years to learn the system” angle. That means a new starting quarterback in ’08 is a possibility.

The worst thing the Lions could do is trade a first and third-round pick for Derek Anderson (signing him as an RFA would also mean the Lions would have to give up a first and a third so that’s pretty much the price if the Lions want him this season) as suggested by Tom Kowalski who calls that a low-asking price. Huh? Randy Moss was traded for a 4th round pick. He is one of the greatest players in NFL history. Anderson has played one full-season. He had an 82.5 rating this year. Scott Mitchell had an 84.5 rating the year before the Lions were sold on him. I’m not bashing Anderson. He may have a bright future. However, a first and third has never been a “low asking price.” The Lions would be lucky to get more than a third-round pick for Shaun Rogers who is one of the most dominant defensive linemen in the league. Dre' Bly—one of the top corners in the league—netted the Lions two hot dogs and a fifth-round pick. Nobody gets a first and a third for anyone.

Plus, it’s time for everyone to stop acting as if the Browns have any leverage. They face the exact same situation that San Diego faced two years ago. The Chargers drafted Phillip Rivers when they already had Drew Brees. They couldn’t keep both and they eventually had to let Brees go for nothing. The Browns are in the same situation. Brady Quinn can’t sit on the bench forever making the kind of money that he makes. Anderson—having actually played—has more value of the two so the Browns will try to move him. If they can’t, they’ll lose him for nothing next season just like the Chargers lost Brees. There isn’t much leverage there. When teams don’t have leverage, they don’t get a first and third round pick for a first-year starting quarterback who was drafted in the 6th round just two years ago. Even the great Tom Brady—a 6th round pick—might not have netted that after his first year as a starter.

The Lions need a new signal-caller. This upcoming draft class is incredibly deep at quarterback. The Lions could have an opportunity to take Andre Woodson from Kentucky. He destroyed the SEC this season with 40 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. Since the Lions are drafting at 15, they might have a shot at Woodson. They’ll also have the opportunity to trade up by dangling Rogers in front of teams in the top ten. Regardless of who is available, the Lions are much better off drafting a quarterback with their first round pick and keeping their third than they are in trading both picks for Derek Anderson. Then again, who cares?

The Pistons would've rocked with Kobe

Last week, rumors swirled on the internets that Kobe Bryant vetoed a trade to the Pistons. The purported trade had Kobe going to Detroit in exchange for Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Amir Johnson, and a first-round draft pick. The story was reported by three sources that included Ric Bucher of ESPN, 1270 AM radio in Detroit, and Rotoworld. Members of the Detroit media—including Krista Jahnke of the Detroit Free Press—quickly refuted these claims because of a number of tacit denials by the Pistons front office including an “unnamed source” and Joe Dumars. Dumars had said that he was furious about various trade rumors involving the Pistons and that he was not shopping his players.

Due to the ambiguous nature of the reports, whether you believe the trade was discussed by the Pistons or not is entirely up to you. There really is no right answer. Hoopsworld has an interesting opinion on the feasibility of the rumors. Chris McCosky hates bloggers and sports radio so he certainly doesn’t believe the reports. However, I have to advise extreme caution against choosing not to believe the rumors solely because of Dumars’ strong public denial. If I was Dumars and I had agreed to the trade only to see it fall through, I would do the exact same thing that he did. There is no reason for anyone—his players included—to know that a trade almost happened. It is in everyone’s best interest—especially Dumars—to vehemently deny those trade rumors. Taking his word at face value would be akin to asking George W. Bush if he manipulated a war with Iraq and then saying case-closed when he inevitably says, “no.” Dumars’ denial is nothing close to evidence that the trade was never discussed.

My opinion—and this is simply my own personal opinion void of any inside knowledge—is that a trade involving Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince was at least discussed at some point since September. It may be that the Lakers and Pistons discussed a trade in September and Kobe let it be known then that he would not accept a trade to Detroit. Whatever it was, I think the Lakers and Pistons tried to do something. It makes sense for both teams. The package the Lakers would receive would be significantly better than what it received for Shaq. The Pistons would receive the best all-around player in the NBA and immediately challenge the Celtics as the best team in the East and possibly the NBA. A Kobe Bryant/Chauncey Billups/Rasheed Wallace triumvirate would be an incredibly potent attack every bit as formidable as Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett/Ray Allen. The Pistons would probably have a stronger supporting cast than the Celtics with Antonio McDyess, Jason Maxiell, Flip Murray, Rodney Stuckey, and Aaron Afflalo. There is nothing about the trade that seems crazy in the slightest. The money works. The talent exchange works. Detroit’s window of opportunity for a championship with the current roster has come and gone. Barring an injury epidemic of unfathomable proportions that hits the Spurs, Suns, Mavs, and Celtics, the Pistons have no chance of winning the NBA Championship this year or any forthcoming year with its current cast of players. Dumars is too smart to hold on to the past for fear of change. He nearly completed a trade for Allen Iverson seven years ago. He traded Jerry Stackhouse—in his prime—for Rip Hamilton five years ago. He brought Rasheed Wallace—and his notorious reputation—to Detroit three years ago. Dumars isn’t afraid to make a deal.

If this trade was discussed—and I believe some form of it was—I couldn’t be happier with Dumars’ aggressiveness. If there was at least some discussion, it proves that he is willing to do whatever it takes to win and that he isn’t married to his aging core. That would bode well for the future because it would mean that Dumars knows he needs to make a significant move to get the Pistons back to being a championship-caliber team. I wrote a post earlier in the summer about Kobe and the Pistons being perfect for each other. I also wrote that I didn’t think Dumars had it in him to break up his team. If Joe D did talk to L.A., then I'd be happy to admit that I was wrong.

As for Kobe, if he did veto this trade—or any facsimile thereof—at any point, then I have lost virtually all respect for him. The reports cited that Kobe would not want to play for the Pistons because the remaining members of the Pistons would not be good enough to compete. Is he crazy? There aren’t more than five other teams in the NBA that Kobe could be traded to that would leave a team in better shape than the Pistons would be in. Kobe has said in the media that his motivation to get out of L.A. is all about wanting to win. I call B.S. If he wanted to win, he would be seeking a trade to Detroit rather than refusing one. Kobe wants to win but do it in a beautiful destination of his choosing. Then again, this whole thing could be a heaping serving of bologna. Nonetheless, I think Joe D is on the prowl.

Status Quo Yet Again

The last thing that I wanted to see the Pistons do this summer was stay put. Just the thought of seeing the same team suit up for another dead-end run at an NBA Championship made me nauseous. I sensed early in the summer that Joe Dumars was going to be hesitant to make any majors moves. The only player that would return fair value in a trade is Rip Hamilton and I have a feeling that’s a move that Dumars hasn’t even begun to contemplate. Without a willingness to trade RIP, all big moves became impossible and the Pistons stayed put. I also had a pretty good idea that the Pistons (led by Dumars) would swear off playing with complacency which is something we’ve heard before each of the last three seasons. It’s for those reasons that I cannot muster up even the slightest bit of enthusiasm for the 2007-08 season. It’s not that I can’t take the losing. As a Detroit fan, I’ve seen all sorts of losing. I just can’t take a team being masqueraded around as a title contender when it’s so obviously the contrary. It’s an insult to Pistons fans to keep feeding them the same line about this being a championship team that just needs to play harder. The truth is that the Pistons weren’t good enough/didn’t play hard enough in 2005 when they lost the Spurs, or in 2006 when they lost to the Heat, or in 2007 when they lost to the Cavs. The Pistons weren't even good enough to be one of the worst NBA Finals teams on record with homecourt advantage last season. The team has been going downhill ever-so-slightly since they won the NBA Championship in 2004. It’s been an agonizingly slow—and sometimes not so obvious—deterioration. Staying put over the summer only ensured another step backwards in 2008.

The die-hards and a good portion of the media will buy into this team once again. That happens every off-season. It happened entering last season and was only proven to be somewhat true by an unforeseen bit of good fortune. The Pistons mini-run in ’07 was predicated mostly on the fact that they got Chris Webber for free midway through the season. Had that not happened, there is no telling how the Pistons would have finished out the season. I doubt they would have won the Eastern Conference regular season Championship with Nazr Mohammed in the starting lineup and I’m not so sure they get past Chicago in the playoffs. Webber wasn’t the end-all but he made the team more difficult to defend and made the Pistons appear to be a lot better than they actually were. The Pistons probably won’t have Webber next year which isn’t a huge loss but it will only make the decline more obvious. The addition of Webber only proved to be a one-year delay on when it would become obvious that the Pistons need major changes. It’s obvious to many people already but evidently it isn’t obvious to enough people, yet.

I can understand arguments that revolve around the idea that you can’t just make a move just for the sake of making a move. You can’t force something that doesn’t help your team. Regardless of the availability of impact players, the truth remains that the Pistons will not get back to competing for NBA Championships until they bring in a superstar who can do things that the current cast can’t. I’m not suggesting that the Pistons can’t win, in part, with the players on their roster. Virtually every player on the current roster would be a valuable piece to any championship-caliber team. The problem is that the Pistons aren’t a championship-caliber team. They are a team full of supporting pieces. The Pistons need a player who can score at will. They need somebody that can go off irrespective of how the team is performing. They need someone who is an impossible match-up. There were plenty of players involved in trade rumors this summer that fit that bill including; Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Amare Stoudemire, Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen, Jermaine O’Neal, and Zach Randolph. Those are the types of players that the Pistons don’t have. Each of those players can initiate their own shot and make things excruciating for a defense. Obviously there is a big range in caliber amongst those players (i.e. Kobe is much more effective than Ray Allen) but they are all the type of player that the Pistons are missing. I’m not so sure that Ray Allen is the difference between the Pistons making the NBA Finals or not but I’m pretty sure that most of them are. I’m also not suggesting that the Pistons could’ve just gone out and traded for any of those players. Their respective teams may have been asking for more than the Pistons had. I’m merely stating that without the addition of a player of that caliber, the Pistons will continue to fade into “bolivian.”(seriously. check out some of those quotes!) Every year that Joe D waits to make a move is a year wasted for Pistons fans. A GM’s job is to realize when your team is getting better and when its best days are behind it. Joe D has to know that the Pistons are the latter. I’m guessing he is trying not to get fleeced in a deal but the time will come when he has to make a sizeable move. I’m just distraught that it couldn’t have been before this next season. I know the die-hards will willingly take in the Pistons product regardless of the situation but I can’t watch this team on a nightly basis play the same “play when I feel like playing” game while being portrayed as serious threats to the NBA Championship.

I like all of the Pistons players individually. Sure, there are some I like more than others but, for the most part, they are a collection of good basketball players. I just don’t like them together. If I can get into the mindset that the sole purpose of the 2007-08 season is to allow Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell, and Rodney Stuckey to get experience, then I might be able to handle it. Unfortunately, none of those players are in the top six of the rotation which makes their potential for growth negligible despite claims by the Pistons that more minutes will be up for grabs. I will even go as far as to say that I am looking forward to the Lions season more so than the Pistons. At least with the Lions you know what you are getting. I can’t deal with the impending disappointment masked as a championship run. At least the Lions are universally known as a team that can’t get it done.

I have no doubt in Joe D’s ability to put a winning product on the court. It’s just that waiting at least one more year to see things move in a positive direction is a long time to stomach considering I grew tired of the product two years ago. His two draft picks have the potential to be serviceable NBA players at a minimum and could end up being even better than that. Re-signing Billups without overpaying was absolutely the right move. Losing out on Grant Hill wasn’t Joe D’s fault. I think at this point I would even choose to play for Phoenix over Detroit at half the price. Short of a trade, Joe D made all the right moves this summer. Unfortunately, a trade was the only thing that would change the inevitable outcome of the 2007-08 season.

"That's what we do."

The Pistons are a good basketball team but they are nowhere near as good as they think they are. That inexplicable overconfidence is directly responsible for the quote in the post title. If the Pistons were in touch with reality, they would not need to “turn it on” in the face of so many compromising situations. They would simply play hard and win in the same way other good teams do it. Instead, we have the above quote and a 16-oz bottle of Pepto-Bismol to deal with.

The thing that keeps the above quote alive is the fact that the Pistons have often won in compromising positions. That seems to only bolster the validity of the quote in their minds. Playing uninspired basketball may be “what the Pistons do” but it is also the reason why the Pistons never won another NBA Championship after 2004. Expending so much energy on beating teams you should beat makes it almost impossible to contend with the teams that are your equal.

All frustrations aside, declaring the Pistons dead in this series would be ignoring “what the Pistons do.” Here is a reminder of the holes that the Pistons have weaseled their way out of in the last few years:

2003 Eastern Conference First Round vs. Orlando

Pistons fall behind 3-1 to Orlando before winning the last three games of the series.

2003 Eastern Conference Semi-Finals vs. Philadelphia

Pistons jump out to a 2-0 series lead only to lose the next two to Philadelphia. The Pistons then win the next two games to close out the series.

2004 Eastern Conference Semi-Finals vs. New Jersey

Pistons jump out to a 2-0 series lead only to lose the next three to New Jersey. The Pistons win at New Jersey in game six to force a game seven and a Pistons win.

2004 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Indiana

The Pistons jump out to a 2-1 series lead before losing game four to even the series at 2-2. The Pistons then win game five at Indiana and close out the series in six.

2005 Eastern Conference Semi-Finals vs. Indiana

The Pistons fall behind 2-1 with home-court advantage. They then win games four and six at Indiana to close out the series.

2005 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Miami

The Pistons fall behind 3-2 to Miami before winning game six at home and game seven at Miami.

2006 Eastern Conference Semi-Finals vs. Cleveland

The Pistons jump out to an early 2-0 series lead before dropping the next three games. Facing elimination, the Pistons win game six at Cleveland and close out the series at home in game seven.

Part of me is quietly hoping that Cleveland dispatches of the Pistons in game six so the overhaul can begin. The last three years have been a collection of sad tales involving the same theme: complacency. The sooner the front office moves on from 2004, the sooner the Pistons can get back to resembling that hard-working bunch that captivated Pistons fans five years ago. If I was a betting man, I would not bet against the history that I outlined above. The Pistons are in the same position they’ve been in time and time again. That is why I expect them to win game six at Cleveland. Fortunately, losing game six at Cleveland would not be such a bad thing in the long run. Either way, this act needs to end with the 2007 playoffs. I can’t handle another dead-end run.

Kobe and the Pistons need each other

The Pistons could make a run for Kobe Bryant if it turns out he is available. I don’t think Kobe even knows if he wants to be traded or not so this is 99/100th speculation. Let’s assume, though, that he does want out. Let’s also assume that the Pistons either lose to the Cavs (which they might) or to the Spurs (which they most definitely will). Joe Dumars cannot be happy with the consistently overconfident disposition of his basketball team. There hasn’t been a more underachieving or disinterested team in the NBA in perhaps the last 30 years. The Pistons are the only team that I have ever seen in professional sports that takes pride in not playing hard all the time. They have even developed a phrase for it: “that’s what we do.” The “doing” involves playing down to the level of competition and playing uninspired basketball for large chunks at a time. It’s the same story every series, every year. Despite the Pistons’ assurances otherwise, it didn’t take much to realize that the whole talk about everyone having a renewed hunger this season was garbage. The Pistons have been “fat cats” ever since they won the NBA Championship in ’04. Fans have started to grow tired of the act and I’m guessing Dumars has had enough of it as well.

I have long felt that Dumars has been too attached to his starting five. Those five players allow the Pistons to compete and survive economically, but they also represent to Dumars his craftsmanship as a GM. Giving up the “best starting five” in the NBA brings a level of uncertainty that probably makes Dumars uncomfortable. I have been a big proponent of trading Rip Hamilton in the past if it means bringing in a superstar. In all likelihood, Hamilton is the only player the Pistons could trade that would allow them to get fair value and remain competitive. No team would ever give up fair value for Rasheed Wallace. He is a problem that teams don’t want to deal with. Tayshaun Prince is grossly undervalued around the league. With his multi-dimensional attributes and favorable salary, trading Prince would be a bad move. He will never be a superstar but he is the perfect complimentary player. Trading Chauncey Billups would be a difficult loss to overcome in terms of remaining competitive. While he might be one of the biggest culprits in the Pistons lackadaisical approach, he is one of the top five point guards in the NBA—and these days, finding a championship-caliber point guard is almost as rare as finding a franchise-center. So, Hamilton is the guy that would need to get traded if the Pistons wanted to make a move. I actually think that Hamilton might be overvalued around the league which should help Dumars’ cause.

If the Pistons had Kobe Bryant right now instead of RIP, I think they would be dismantling Cleveland. Kobe’s disposition is the inverse of the Pistons’. He has been desperate to prove that he can win a championship without Shaq. He is as competitive as any player that I have ever seen. A Kobe/Pistons marriage would be a godsend for both. The Pistons would finally have a player that can create his own shot and Kobe would have a realistic shot at winning that coveted Shaq-less championship. For any of this to work Dumars would have to be willing to part with RIP, Antonio McDyess, Nazr Mohammed and two first-round picks in the ’07 draft at a minimum. I doubt that would get the deal done but it would at least get the Pistons in the same ballpark. Nazr will be tough to move with his lengthy contract but he may need to be thrown in to make the salaries work. It’s important to remember that NBA teams are at a tremendous disadvantage when they are forced to trade a discontent player. The Lakers got .15 cents on the dollar for Shaq because teams knew the Lakers needed to trade him. If Kobe continues to publicly demand a trade, the Lakers will once again be in the same position. There is no doubt in my mind that RIP, Nazr, Carlos Delfino and two first-round draft picks is every bit as good as the Caron Butler (before he was good), Lamar Odom, Brian Grant and a first-round pick-deal that the Lakers got for Shaq. Don’t be surprised if Kobe gets traded for less than you might think. Likewise, don’t be surprised if the Lakers ask for the world.

Adding Kobe would be fantastic. The problem would be the void that a $33 million backcourt would leave on the front court. Rasheed Wallace, Chris Webber, and McDyess will all be gone within two years at the most (unless Rasheed resigns for cheap). If you devote $20 million per year to Kobe and give $13 million per year to resign Billups, then where is the money going to come from for anything more than a weak front court? In three years, the Pistons would look like the current version of the Lakers. They would have Kobe Bryant, Tayshaun Prince, and an aged Billups to go along with a roster full of youngsters. The Lakers don’t even want to be the Lakers right now so the Pistons becoming the Lakers is not appealing in the slightest.

Trading for Kobe isn’t guaranteed to be the correct move even if the Lakers are willing to deal him. If the Pistons have to give up both RIP and Prince—along with two first round draft picks—then I think that has to be a deal-breaker. I’m not concerned about RIP. Kobe would be a huge upgrade over him. The problem is giving up Prince. Prince’s value is difficult to define. He is an above-average offensive player in the post. He is an average three-point shooter. He is one of the best defenders in the league. He has the wingspan of a 7-footer at small forward which gives tremendous advantages for your defense. Most importantly, all of that comes at a resonable price. RIP and Prince are the two youngest members of an aging team. Giving up Prince would be a huge setback for the organization. He is not recognized as a superstar so his worth in a trade would be severely undervalued. I would not give up Amir Johnson in a package either. The only thing keeping the Pistons frontcourt in ’09 from looking hopeless is the fact that Amir Johnson is in the fold. Tying up $33 million per year in your starting backcourt without any bona fide frontcourt talent on the horizon will leave the Pistons in a bad way.

If the Lakers don’t want any part of the aforementioned deal (RIP, McDyess, Nazr, and two firsts) and it becomes apparent that Prince and/or Amir Johnson have to be included, the Pistons need to move on. Kobe or no Kobe, the Pistons need to make a big-time move in the off-season. This team has run its course. Bringing it back in tact for ’07-08 would be a waste of everyone’s time. The Pistons have the right package to lure a big-time player. It’s a matter of finding a team willing to take that package. A Rashard Lewis/Tayshaun Prince/Amir Johnson/Jason Maxiell foursome looks awfully appealing two years down the road. I think Lewis gives the Pistons a better chance of winning a Championship in the short-term (over RIP) as well.

There are plenty of deals out there. I suspect this year’s malaise may finally push Dumars over the edge. It’s easy to fall in love with the job that you’ve done but it’s getting to the point where the team’s attitude has to be too much for even Dumars. It has gotten to the point where a Tigers regular season game is my first option and a Pistons playoff game is a distant second just to avoid the frustration. Three years ago, I would have called that an act of a crazy man. Now, it is the only thing keeping me from going crazy.

Pistons need to plan for future ASAP

Posting could be light in the near future. I am now the proud parent of child #2. As crazy as it sounds, she will take precedent over the internet. Hopefully I can keep churning out boring ramblings on a semi-regular basis. Speaking of that…

Thankfully, Portland and Seattle were the big winners in the NBA Draft Lottery instead of, say, the Orlando Magic. I guess I should be thanking the Magic for that late season push to make the playoffs. That seems to be the only thing that stops the Magic from winning the lottery. It would have been awfully difficult to see Orlando win the lottery for the fourth time preventing the Pistons from having multiple first-round picks this year and, even more importantly, enabling the Magic to snatch-up Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Portland and Seattle’s good fortune also guarantees that Oden and Durant will be wrecking havoc in the Western Conference and not the Eastern Conference.

Orlando winning the lottery again would have presented an interesting decision for the Magic. Would they have picked Oden to form one of the most promising front courts in NBA history or Kevin Durant to give them a phenomenal inside/outside attack? Dwight Howard isn’t the greatest offensive post presence when he isn’t throwing down killer dunks. The Magic will inevitably need to address the shortfalls that come from having a center that can’t play beyond seven feet. On the other hand, with Durant and Howard, teams would have to “pick their poison”. I’m glad I didn’t have to make that decision. If I had to choose right now, I’d go with Oden even with a guy like Howard in the fold. I don’t see him being a Sam Bowie-type player. Plus, “smalls” would come flocking to Orlando to play with those two.

The fallout from Portland and Seattle being the big winners in the lottery could have a sizeable effect on the Pistons if they so choose. I am guessing that Portland and Seattle are going to take Oden and Durant respectively. Portland would have Oden to team with Zach Randolph. The Blazers would immediately become a powerhouse team in the Western Conference. Randolph is one of the most underrated post players in the league. With the double-teams that Oden will command, Randolph is going to dominate the league for the next 5-10 years. Hopefully Portland likes that combination enough to avoid taking Durant. If they do, Seattle would take Durant. That is excellent for the Pistons in the sense that Seattle already has Rashard Lewis. They can’t afford to pay both. So Lewis will be looking for a new team this summer. Hopefully the Pistons can somehow take advantage of that situation. Lewis would be a perfect fit for the Pistons. He is an excellent three-point shooter at 6’10. He is a slightly less defensively-abled version of Rasheed Wallace. Although, I think Lewis is much more versatile offensively.

Orlando is supposedly interested in Lewis. The Magic would become one of the top three teams in the Eastern Conference with that acquisition. The Pistons seemingly have a loaded front court but it’s important to remember that Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are five-years older than Lewis and Chris Webber is six years older than Lewis. Wallace, McDyess, and Webber aren’t going to be impact players in Detroit for much longer than two years. In fact, it’s conceivable that none of those three will even be on the team in two years. The Pistons will be forced to make over the frontcourt in a hurry or risk their status as contenders in the Eastern Conference. Amir Johnson will hopefully be much further along in his development but the Pistons will need more than just Johnson to contend. I don’t believe the Pistons have the financial ability to sign Lewis so they would need to pursue a “sign and trade” with Seattle. An offer of Jason Maxiell, Nazr Mohammed, and the 15th and 27th picks in ’07 could garner interest. Even then, I’m not exactly sure if the Pistons would be able to fit Lewis under the cap. If they can, then pursuing Lewis should be a no-brainer. Once Wallace, McDyess, Dale Davis, and Chris Webber come off the books, the Pistons will be fine financially. On a side note, the Blazers apparently have interest in bringing in Lewis. An Oden/Randolph/Lewis frontcourt would be unstoppable. Since that mayhem would do most of its damage in the Western Conference, I wouldn’t mind seeing it happen.

Since a Lewis/Pistons relationship is likely just a silly dream, I would love to see the Pistons try to dangle their two first-round picks this season and possibly Jason Maxiell for a player of similar stature to Lewis over the next two summers. That won’t be easy. Kevin Garnett and Pau Gasol will likely be available this summer but I’m not sure that the Pistons have enough ammunition or willingness to add to the payroll. Regardless of what the Pistons are able to do this summer (in the playoffs and in free agency), they need to start thinking about the future. They have some nice young players—Prince, Maxiell, Johnson, and Carlos Delfino—but none of those players are going to be frontcourt centerpieces. I am of the belief that two first round draft picks are much more valuable before the draft than after the draft. The draft is so unpredictable that you could end up with two “duds” very easily. If Dumars thinks he can find two gems with the 15th and 27th, then I have no problem with the Pistons keeping those picks.

The Pistons are going to have to make a move to bring in an impact player in the near future. They went from being the two-time defending NBA Champions in 1990 to 20-62 just three seasons later because the front office did not plan for the future. It took a decade for the team to rebound. There is no guarantee that free agents will come your way just because it happens to be a year when you have a bunch of money to spend. I’m hoping the Pistons aren’t planning on going for broke in free agency in the summer of ’09. If that’s their plan, then coming up empty will cripple the franchise similar to what happened following the Bad Boy era. Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton and Prince will keep the team relatively competitive but without a frontcourt similar to the one in Detroit right now, the Pistons will fall to the middle of the pack.

Complacency is the killer of dreams

The 2004 NBA Finals were equally a dream come true for the Pistons (and their fans) as well as the start of a crippling disposition. It has been three long years since Detroit ruled the NBA which is far too long for a team that annually boasts “the best starting five in the NBA.” With Chris Webber essentially replacing Ben Wallace, this season has been no different. The Pistons have a strong bench to compliment its bevy of All-Star starters. Unfortunately, three years of “the best starting five” has yielded a big, fat pile of nothing. I believe that something happened in 2004 that may very well prevent the Pistons—at least this version—from ever winning a championship again: complacency.

I know treading in the waters of psychobabble is a dangerous endeavor but I think it applies here. The Pistons are obviously a good basketball team. They have reached the Eastern Conference Finals in each of the last four seasons and barely missed a second NBA Championship against the San Antonio Spurs in ‘05. In both seasons since the Championship, though, the Pistons have underachieved. They should have beaten the Spurs in the Finals. They played two dreadful basketball games in games one and two. It was as if they relished falling behind two games to none. Then, of course, they stormed back with three straight wins and very narrowly missed winning game six. Some might applaud the Pistons’ effort in that series but I think it’s evident that had they come to play in game one, things may have turned out differently. Last season, the Pistons coasted through the regular season with one of the best starts in NBA history. The playoffs proved, yet again, to be another disappointment. They were dismantled by Miami. It looked like the Pistons felt they had the series won before it even started thus keeping them from ever really showing up.

While the last two seasons seem to be compelling evidence of the Pistons’ complacency since 2004, following the regular season closely proves to be even more revealing. The Pistons often play lackadaisical in the first half of games. They seem to relish falling behind early in the same way that Wayne Gretzky’s Edmonton Oilers did in the 80s. The problem is that the Pistons are nowhere near as dominant as those Oilers teams. They cannot afford to fall behind or coast against any of the upper echelon teams in the NBA. It may work against the Indiana Pacers but it won’t work against Miami, San Antonio or even a Chicago Bulls team missing Ben Wallace and Andres Nocioni. Every so often, the Pistons play with a certain level of authority and the results can be resounding (i.e. the second half of the April 3 Pacers game). I know teams can’t play perfectly every night. But, the Pistons seem to play flawlessly on most occasions when they are down in the second half. That proves to me that they hold back. I’m not suggesting it’s a conscious decision. In fact, that is just the problem. I believe it is an almost unavoidable unconscious problem.

A few years ago, my weight was close to that of a walrus. I assure you that it was not a pretty sight. Nonetheless, I got to a point where I had to do something about it. I started running on the treadmill everyday. I started off with a near-walking pace until I could build up my stamina to run. Every week I got better and better. I worked out hard in the gym and soon the pounds were melting off of my body. Each new accomplishment brought even more determination. Weeks became months and my weight loss went from 10 to 20 to 50 to 97 pounds. In just six months I had chiseled off 97 pounds of fat and what was left was a specimen fit for an amateur bodybuilding competition. I still remember the day that I lost that 97th pound. I couldn’t believe it. Unfortunately, that was the only day where I would keep that 97th pound off. Something happened to me that day. It is four years later and while I am nowhere near that walrus-weight, I am far from happy with my current physical conditioning. No matter how hard I try, no matter what technique I use, I cannot regain that determination. My reference point for what is an acceptable weight has continually increased for three years. Each time my weight increases, I end up rationalizing that I’m still in pretty good shape and if I wanted to, I could “turn it back on”. That has led to the contradiction of contradictions: the fact that I know I can do it is making it impossible for me to do it. It is a weird phenomenon. It’s almost as if I would have been better off losing 70 pounds and then losing the rest at a later time.

I see so many parallels between my own complacency and what seems to be the Pistons’ complacency. My inability to regain that fire that allowed me to reach places I never thought I could reach is not something that I enjoy. I want it back in a bad way. I believe the Pistons fight the same demons. They achieved success so quickly and so unexpectedly that they never developed the sense that if they don’t play well, they will lose. The Pistons often have “team meetings” that result in a few games of superior play. Those spurts are always followed by a return to complacency. Again, I can relate. Numerous times I have attained a drive strong enough to get me through two, three and even six weeks of intense exercise and healthy eating. But, it always ends disastrously. I always end up back at the same place.

Just because the Pistons seem to be surrounded by an unwavering level of complacency does not mean they aren’t trying to fight through it. It’s so easy to say, “Chauncey needs to drive more”, or “‘Sheed needs to play in the post”. I’ve said both of those things numerous times. But, that’s like someone telling me that I need to eat better or run more. I’m well aware of how important those two components are. The problem isn’t knowing what to do. It’s doing it.

Even though I have failed to regain that determination over and over again, I am still trying to recapture it. I have confidence that one day I will get back to the shape that I dream of when my mind wanders. Whether that’s a fools dream or not, I have no idea. The fact that my complacency has lasted four years and the Pistons’ complacency has lasted three years does not bode well for either of us. As much as I can assure you that I will not stop trying to break away from my mental constraints, I am convinced the Pistons will do the same. Unfortunately, trying is only half the battle.