Hope lies with Dombrowski and $50 million

I don’t know if the Tigers are going to rebound from their early season malaise. Three weeks ago, I would’ve told you that it was only a matter of time before the bats fired-up and the pitching became more consistent. Now, the likelihood of that is probably less than 50/50. This season may very well end up being a waste in much the same way that last year was a waste. Fortunately, there is hope. It’s not short-term hope or quick-fix hope that will help this year. Rather, it’s kind of like being strapped for cash with no relief in sight and then getting a big, forgotten-about, refund from the IRS. The Tigers appear to be littered with underachieving players whose once promising futures appear to be uncertain (i.e. Verlander, Bonderman, Willis, Cabrera, Zumaya). With their futures in doubt, it’s difficult to get excited about direction this team is going. However, that should all change very, very soon.

Over the next two years, the Tigers are going to have roughly $50 million come off the existing payroll. Gary Sheffield, Ivan Rodriguez, Edgar Renteria, Kenny Rogers, and Todd Jones will count for the bulk of that money. It would be nearly impossible for the Tigers to get less value for $50 million than they are getting with the above players right now. Sheffield has absolutely no power because of his maimed shoulder. Pudge is worthless. Rogers and Jones have looked their age. Renteria isn’t the worst player in the world but he certainly wasn’t worth Jair Jurrjens.

While the Tigers may look like a big pile of junk right now, a lot of the junk will be gone by September of 2009. The Tigers will be left with a core featuring Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, Justin Verlander, and Rick Porcello. Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco should still be around and fairly productive which means the Tigers will still have the depth and talent to field a very competitive team. How good that team will be will almost certainly depend on how wisely Dave Dombrowski spends the extra $50 million. The Tigers—despite their $137 million payroll and resurgence as a factor in the baseball world—have still not been able to lure high-profile free agents to Detroit. All of Dombrowski’s work has come through trades, the draft, and by overpaying dinged-up stars. So, I’m not sure that he’ll be able to bring in the hot name in the off-season just because he has money to burn. Ideally, Dombrowski could just rely on his trading prowess. Unfortunately, the minors were depleted in last winter’s spending spree so there won’t be many enticing packages the Tigers can offer. Jeff Larish is raking at Toledo (AAA) right now with an OPS of .976 and 15 home runs in 48 games. With Cabrera at first, Larish’s future appears to be somewhere else. Eddie Bonine is a starting pitching-prospect who has also been phenomenal at Toledo (AAA) this year. His splits include an 8-0 record, a 3.79 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP. Bonine will be 27 in June and Larish is 25 so their trade value is dwindling. The Tigers may be able to build a package around them but reeling in a big-name via a trade is still unlikely. There is a tremendous amount of talent in the lower-levels of the organization but that will take a few years to mature into viable trade bait.

The idea that the Tigers could have so much money to spend but not have anyone to spend it on is a depressing one. Maybe the work that Dombrowski and Mike Ilitch have done over the last few years has increased the Tigers profile enough to lure even the most sought after free agents. Miguel Cabrera sure didn’t seem to mind signing an extension to stay in Detroit for seven more years. If, however, Detroit is still not a desired-destination for the big-time free agents, then the Tigers will have to once again revert to overpaying and then that $50 million becomes more like $35 million.

For the time being, though, I’m going to assume two things…1). Mike Ilitch intends on using the $50 million rather than reducing payroll and 2). Dombrowski will be able to get fair value for his $50 million. The Tigers absolutely must find a left-fielder who can mash. Gary Sheffield in his prime would be a perfect fit. Unfortunately, he has turned into the king of infield pop-ups. The Tigers will be able to afford a bona-fide superstar left-fielder and they should be willing to splurge a bit to bring the best one available to Detroit. The two best left-field types available in the Free Agent class of '09 are Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn. Either would be a monumental upgrade over Sheffield at this point. Cabrera and Ordonez provide enough in the middle of the lineup that the offense could afford the addition of a high power/low average guy. Over the last four years, Dunn has averaged 100+ runs, 100+ RBIs, 100+ BBs, and 40+ HRs. Throw in the fact that he is a lefty and he could be a nice fit for the Tigers. Burrell hasn’t been as productive as Dunn but he is having his best season in ’08. Neither are perfect. Both are upgrades in left.

The other position that needs a major upgrade is the rotation. In the same irrational way Joe Dumars is in love with his starting five of underachievers, I believe that Jim Leyland—and probably Dombrowski to some extent—is in love with his rotation. He might not be in love with their production but I fear that he’ll stick with them beyond reason. While it is refreshing to see the team move Dontrelle Willis into the bullpen to keep Armando Galarraga—by far the Tigers’ best starter through two months—in the rotation, I don’t see Willis staying in the bullpen all season. So, don’t be too surprised if the brass stick with Verlander, Bonderman, Robertson, and Willis for the long-term. All but Verlander are signed through 2010 and the Tigers will certainly re-sign Verlander beyond his current contract. Fortunately, the team will have the opportunity to address the spot opened by Kenny Rogers’s likely departure. Rick Porcello might get the first-look there. There is a decent chance that Porcello will immediately be the most talented pitcher on the team. That would mean that Leyland and Dombrowski would have to pull the plug on one of the other underachieving pitchers in order to add Porcello and make the significant upgrade through free agency that is absolutely necessary to contend for a championship. The Tigers will have plenty of money available over the next two years to make a run at even the most expensive pitching-free agents. The key is not to overpay for the mid-level pitcher. Those bidding wars end up getting ridiculous and can often result in Mike Hampton making $15 per year. The trick is to either pay big money for the “cream”, sign a veteran (like Rogers), or go with one of your prospects. The Tigers need major upgrades at only two positions and the rotation happens to be one of them. So, going after the “cream” should be an organizational goal.

Unfortunately, the ’09 free agent class for starting pitching is weak. Only C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets would qualify as the “cream.” Every team in baseball with any financial flexibility will be after them. That shouldn’t stop the Tigers from making a run, though. Sabathia and Sheets are proven front-line starters that the Tigers desperately need. Sheets’s injury history might make him more affordable but it also makes him a risk. The Tigers have had plenty of injury issues in the rotation with Willis, Bonderman, and Rogers all having lengthy stints on the DL over the past two years. Still, Sheets is an ace-caliber pitcher who is still only 29. He is off to a strong start in ’08. Sabathia is, of course, a superstar. He won the Cy Young in ’07 and has been lights-out after a rough start in ’08. Adding Sabathia would have the dual advantage of crippling the rotation of the intra-division Indians.

With Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera in the fold for the next few years, the Tigers are unlikely to have room for a first-baseman or a DH. Guillen might be a stop-gap at third for ’08 but the same fielding inconsistencies that plagued him at shortstop will catch up to him at third base. Granderson and Mags will occupy CF and RF for the next few years. Polanco is a great value at 2B which might mean an even longer stay in Detroit than his current contract runs. Shortstop and catcher are positions that will need to be addressed but the Tigers absolutely do not have to spend money for a “name” at either position. Heck, Brandon Inge might be Pudge’s replacement. Renteria will be gone after next year which will leave a hole at SS. The Tigers would be best-served putting all of their money into adding talent in LF and SP and allocating significantly less money to the catcher and shortstop positions. The Tigers will have enough power offensively with Granderson, Mags, Cabrera, Guillen, Polanco and a power-hitting left-fielder that they won’t need to overpay a catcher or a shortstop.

The only other position that the Tigers will likely have to address is third base. Cabrera has already been booted from the position. Guillen won’t last long. And nobody knows if Inge will even be on the team next year. Fortunately, the Tigers might have an answer in-house. Wilkin Ramirez is tearing it up AA Erie with a .942 OPS. Aside from Porcello, he is the #1 prospect in the organization and, unlike Larish, there is room for him in the organization. Two years from now, he’ll be 24 and more than due for a MLB promotion. That would also mean the Tigers could allocate bottom dollar to the third base position.

So, even though this was supposed to be the year where all of the pieces were put together for a run at the World Series, I actually think the best Tigers team—chemistry and talent-wise—is still two or three years away. In a year of such disappointment, that is something to get excited about.

Bondo on pace for greatest pitching season ever

The leading candidate for AL MVP and Cy Young after ten games of the MLB season is, unequivocally, Jeremy Bonderman. No player in the majors this season—and perhaps MLB history—has meant more to his team. Consider he has 100% of the Tigers wins. That is unprecedented. If he can keep that up over the course of the season, he would have the best single-season in sports history. So, be sure to keep an eye on that.

In other news, the Tigers have sent Metro Detroit into an area-wide depression with their 1-8 start fueled by anything and everything going wrong. I had on my Old English D cap the other day and a man said to me, “do you feel good about wearing that hat?” Clearly, he forgot about 2003 but this man was burned about the start. No single event sums up the Tigers early season futility more appropriately than the fact that Placido Polanco broke his MLB record consecutive errorless streak by committing an error in two straight games. When Polanco is making mental mistakes, you know you’ve got issues. Polanco’s errors might be the most shocking faux pas of the season but they certainly aren’t the worst of Detroit’s problems. Of the following group—Gary Sheffield, Miguel Cabrera, and Placido Polanco—who is hitting over .200? Unfortunately, the answer is none. Of the following group—Sheffield, Cabrera, Polanco, Marcus Thames, Jacque Jones, Pudge Rodriguez, Edgar Renteria, and Magglio Ordonez—who has an OPS above .750? Unfortunately, the answer is none. The hitting has been atrocious and, not surprisingly, the Tigers are last in the AL in runs scored.

The Tigers have actually scored more runs per game than the Yankees by .01 runs per game and the Yankees are not 1-8. What does that mean? It means that the Yankees have pitching. Tigers-pitching has been awful. In fact, it has been even worse than the hitting. The Tigers are last in virtually every measurable pitching statistic. That’s what makes the hitting drought so damaging. Everyone knew coming into the season that the Tigers had big-time question marks with the starting rotation and bullpen. The offense was supposed to mask those problems until some moves could be made to sure up the staff (whether those moves were going to come this season or next is a different story). The hitting hasn’t masked anything and the Tigers have no chance of winning until it does.

There is good news, however, and there is actually quite a bit of it. First, the Royals are leading the AL Central. There is no doubt that the Royals are an improved team but if the Tigers can’t catch the Royals by season’s end, then a lot of people need to be fired. Second, the Tigers haven’t even played 1/16th of the season. Last season, from May 25-June 1, the Tigers went 1-7. From July 26-Aug 5, the Tigers went 1-9. They still managed to finish 14 games over .500. They are only 4.5 games out of the wild card spot. Presuming the Tigers don’t let this slump adversely affect them more than any other slump simply because it's the start of the season, there is no difference between a slump in April and a slump in July. Third, Curtis Granderson is set to return as early as next week. His importance to the Tigers cannot be overstated. Remember, Granderson finished 10th in the AL MVP Voting last year and—if the voters had any idea what they were talking about—he would’ve finished in the top five. Granderson makes the Tigers offense go. No offense to Edgar Renteria—the only off-season trade that I wasn't ecstatic about—the Tigers don’t have the same effectiveness with Renteria leading off. Fourth, some of this stuff isn’t unfamiliar at all. Gary Sheffield hit .200 with a .675 OPS for the whole month of April last season. Over the next three months, he hit .320 with an OPS bordering 1.000.

There is no way that the offense will continue to be putrid throughout the season unless there is a rash of injuries. These players are just too good. The big question is, will the offense heat up soon enough to keep the Tigers from falling too far behind? Cleveland is a good team and possibly a great team. Chicago could be very good, too. It’s early in the season but the Tigers can only play so much better than the best teams even when they’re on a role.

Even though there are some things to take solace in, I don’t want to minimize the unacceptable nature of the Tigers porous play. It is disappointing to see the current level of effort and execution from a team that had so much promise coming into the season. My first guess is that they bought into the hype about how good they were going to be and that affected their mental and physical preparation coming into the season. There is just no other excuse for an entire team to be underachieving at such a ridiculous level. I could blame Jim Leyland for allowing such a malaise-attitude—and anyone who wants to do this would be more than justified—but I won’t. The players are responsible for their own preparation. They didn’t have it in Spring Training and they don’t have it now. The season is still young enough that a 1-8 start can be overcome but they need to start winning right now.

Depressed about the Tigers? Read a book.

The baseball season has begun and—even though it’s only three games young—everyone in Detroit is already depressed. The Tigers have not only started the season 0-3 but they have managed to do it against the Royals at home, no less. To make matters worse, the greatest offense in the universe scored a grand total of five runs against one of the worst staffs in the league. To make matters even worse than that, Miguel Cabrera is out with a pulled quadriceps to go along with Curtis Granderson’s broken finger. This is where I remind you that the baseball season is 162 games-long and the Tigers have one of the easiest second-half schedules in the league. But still, the Royals?

Thankfully, my mind is stuck in 1973. The folks at Sourcebooks were nice enough to send me a copy of John Rosengren’s latest book titled, Hammerin’ Hank, George Almighty & The Say Hey Kid. The story chronicles the 1973 MLB season which had more sub-plots than an episode of Lost. In the face of death threats that literally made him fear living long enough to play the next season, Hank Aaron was slowly chasing down Babe Ruth as the All-Time Home Run King. George Steinbrenner purchased a reeling Yankees franchise that hadn’t been to the playoffs since 1964—and he purchased it for $10 million! The World Series ushered out one of the greatest players of all-time (Willie Mays) and welcomed a new superstar named Reggie Jackson. Mr. October took the league by storm in ’73 winning both the AL MVP and the World Series MVP.

Rosengren provides a fantastic look into one of the greatest seasons—and time periods—in MLB history. It’s a virtual encyclopedia of all things baseball from the early 70’s including insight into the tumulteous race relations in MLB, Gaylord Perry’s transgressions with his “spitball”, the AL’s controversial decision to introduce the DH, and Orlando Cepeda’s love for Mary Jane. With brilliant baseball websites like baseball-reference.com, it doesn’t take much to look up statistics from 1973. But, you’ll have to look pretty damn hard to find something that adequately portrays the drama--and there was a lot of it--that encapsulated the sport in ’73 as much as Hammerin' Hank. My only complaint is that he hasn't written a book like this for every season.

Inge is exhausting

I was able to hold off on three prior attempts to write about the incredibly annoying Brandon Inge but I have failed miserably at holding off on a fourth attempt. Inge has whined and sulked his way from the New Year all the way through spring training disgruntling even his most avid supporters. The Detroit Tigers blogosphere has previously addressed this topic en mass and I probably don't have a whole lot to add that hasn't already been said in one form or another. Jim Leyland has done his best to quash the situation by saying things like, “His attitude is tremendous. Our relationship is tremendous. He'll leave camp happier and a bit more at ease, and he deserves that." I appreciate what Leyland is trying to do here but I cry “foul.” The Tigers are days away from starting the season and this is what Inge had to say about his good fortune at being named a starter for the first two weeks of the season due to Curtis Granderson’s broken hand, “I'm glad I'm playing, but it's for two weeks". That sentence would’ve been acceptable without the “but” and everything after it.

Inge has expressed his displeasure at being a back-up third baseman, back-up catcher and everything else involving the word “backup” all the while saying he just wants what’s best for the team. While the rest of the Tigers were absolutely ecstatic about the arrival of Miguel Cabrera, Inge has been a “wet blanket”. I have read on numerous occasions how Inge’s comments are understandable for a professional athlete because it’s in his nature to be ultra-competitive thus there’s no way he could or should be happy about losing his job. That’s fine. Inge doesn’t have to be happy about not starting. However, there is a huge difference between not being happy and letting everyone know it. I’m guessing if the majority of Americans expressed themselves in a similar way at their place of employment, they would be reprimanded at the very least and possibly fired. It is totally unprofessional to openly discuss your dissatisfaction at your company especially when said dissatisfaction is because the company is moving in a better direction at your expense. It becomes even more unprofessional when said company keeps paying you the money you were promised. There is nothing OK about how Inge has handled this situation. He didn’t lose his job. He still makes $6.2 million for one of the best baseball teams in the league. One thing is for certain, if you’re going to complain as much as Inge has, you better be frickin’ good—and Inge is not.

Despite Inge’s obvious displeasure, the Tigers have bent over backwards to accommodate his wishes. They’ve attempted to trade him on numerous occasions. They’ve tried him out at a number of positions to increase his chances of seeing the field. They’ve let him say things like, “I don’t want to catch” without telling him to shut up. I’m not sure what Inge thinks is fair treatment but the Tigers have been too understanding, in my opinion. Leyland gave a paradoxical quote that underscores just how understanding the Tigers have been. Leyland said, “Read the paper this morning. It’s obvious. He does not want to catch. I’m not going to force somebody to catch. He’s doing all the right things, saying all the right things. He’s a professional. He’s one of my favorites. I want him to play third base somewhere everyday. Is that going to happen? I have no clue.” Again, I appreciate Leyland’s intentions here but there are a number of things that speak to Inge’s unprofessionalism in that quote. First, Leyland says to read the paper to find out that its obvious that Inge doesn’t want to catch. Why is Inge taking his case to the media? Then, Leyland says that Inge is “doing all the right things, saying all the right things.” Huh? That’s not even remotely believable. Since when does, “I don’t want to catch” constitute saying and doing all the right things? Inge should feel fortunate that the Tigers don’t just dump him or trade him to a bottom-feeder. Does Inge really think there’s an abundance of MLB teams looking for a starting third baseman who carries around a .241 batting average?

Any knowledgeable baseball fan knew a long time ago that Inge was a liability in the Tigers lineup. He is lucky that the Tigers were willing to put up with his porous offense for as long as they did. He has “back-up” skills and it wasn’t until last December that the Tigers addressed his deficiencies by bringing in Cabrera. Inge is not a man with leverage. He is a terrible hitter by almost any measure. There is no hiding his 85 OPS+ which is an appalling number at any position let alone a corner infield position. His career OBP is a putrid .304. His K to BB ratio is an abominable 3 to 1. He makes the occasional spectacular play in the field but there is no way his defense makes up for his wretched offense.

The biggest beef I have is Inge’s inability to keep his negative comments to himself. He has to know that Cabrera is one of the best things to happen to the Tigers in decades. Inge gets paid to be a good teammate and perform when called upon. Nowhere in his contract does it state that he is to be a starter. I totally understand that nobody wants to take a diminished role but Inge won’t play for the Tigers forever. The team will explore trade options and he will likely play for a different team in the somewhat-near future. I fault Inge big-time for not seeing the big picture. There is pretty close to a 100% chance that Inge will get an opportunity to battle for a starting position sometime, somewhere in the future. In the intermediate, he is the #1 reserve at virtually every position which means he’ll get his fair share of at-bats. The fact that Inge will be the Opening Day-starter in centerfield is proof of that. I just wish he could appreciate the opportunity rather than take it for granted. Maybe next time he can simply say, “I’m glad I’m playing” and save the “but” for an ungrateful clown in another city.

Tigers could coast into playoffs with a strong start

Before the Tigers took the field in 2007 to defend their American League Championship, one could’ve predicted potential disappointment because of the “red herring” that was the second half-schedule. Of course, most Detroiters were still too much in shock that the Tigers weren’t the worst team ever anymore to care about something as trivial as “the second-half schedule.” Unfortunately, said schedule featured 43 games against teams that were above .500 the previous season. There were few breaks in the slate as the Tigers only played 13 games against teams with fewer than 75 wins in ’06. If Detroit was healthy for that part of the schedule, it may have been able to sneak into the playoffs. However, the difficulty of the schedule combined with a number of key injuries (losing Sheffield for that stretch ended up being the deal-breaker, IMO) made for an incredibly disappointing end to 2007.

Contrast that to the 2008 schedule and it appears that the schedule-maker noticed the raw deal that the Tigers were dealt in ’07 and made amends. I would venture to say that the second-half schedule for 2008 is even easier than the 2007 second-half schedule was difficult. In the final 67 games this season, the Tigers only play 17 games against teams that were above .500 last season. That’s 26 fewer than in the second-half of 2007. Even more incredible is that the Tigers play 41 games in the latter half of the season against teams that won fewer than 75 games in 2007. That’s 28 more than last season. The Tigers will see an extreme shift in second-half schedule difficulty from last season and I think that will make this season much more successful. The second-half of the MLB season is notorious for the “grind” of playing through the summer months and mounting injuries. The Tigers had no chance against those factors last season. Even a few key injuries likely wouldn’t be enough to derail the Tigers from finishing strong in 2008.

This is good news for a number of obvious reasons. However, the “best” reason is that it puts the Tigers in a win-win situation for the first-half of 2008. If the Tigers play good baseball and find themselves close to the division lead at the All-Star break, then they will be in excellent position to pull away from the field as they get into the easy part of the schedule. If things fall apart for one reason or another in the first half, the Tigers can rest easy knowing that they will have the opportunity to take advantage of a weak schedule post-All-Star break. The Tigers could also have the luxury of resting their starting pitching near the end of the season if they’re able to pull away from the pack.

Usually the best team wins in baseball but if teams are close enough in talent (i.e. Cleveland and Detroit in ’07), the schedule can play a huge factor in which team moves on to the postseason. It feels good to have that on our side this time around.

I love New York (NL)

I’d like to send a big “shout-out” to my dawg, Omar Minaya, for bringing Johan Santana to Queens. I’d also like to send out smaller “shout-outs” to Hank Steinbrenner and Theo Epstein for haggling themselves out of the best pitcher of the 21st century. Boston and New York fans alike seem to be buying the “company line” that Minnesota’s asking-price was simply too much. Somehow, Boston convinced itself that Jacoby Ellsbury (oh ye of 116 regular season at-bats) and Jon Lester (1.566 career WHIP) were too much value to give up for one of the 15 best pitchers in MLB history in his 20s no less. The Yankees—no doubt using the same highly questionable logic—convinced themselves that Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera were too much to part with. I would hate to be a Yankees or Red Sox fan five years from now when Santana is in the midst of throwing down Greg Maddux-caliber seasons like they’re Kwame Kilpatrick-perjuries. Remember, Santana has only been a full-time starter for four seasons. He has a lot of innings left.

The Tigers—facing the same "unproven talent or proven awesomeness" dilemma—gave up Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller—who were both rated among the top 10 prospects in baseball—along with Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz, Mike Rabelo, and Burke Badenhop for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Willis was essentially a “throw in.” The Tigers clearly weren’t offended by having to take Willis but the only way Cabrera was coming to Detroit was by giving up both Maybin and Miller. That package is considerably more potent than anything the Yankees and Red Sox discussed for Santana. Despite parting with two uber-prospects and four of the top six prospects in the organization, Dave Dombrowski jumped all over the deal without the slightest reservation. Tigers fans were universally ecstatic. Adding a player of Cabrera’s caliber for prospects was a no-brainer. As good as Cabrera is—and part of his allure is the fact that he’s only 24—Santana is even better. It is astonishing to me that the Yankees and Red Sox failure to land Santana can be construed as anything other than a disaster. At least Boston can point to its World Championship. New York has no excuse.

Yet, it seems like Boston and New York fans are actually breathing a sigh-of-relief that their coveted prospects are still with the team. I understand that fans obsess over prospects. I’ve fawned over a Juan Encarnacion or two so I’m not going to come down too hard on the folks who love prospects. However, please show some semblance of discretion. A Yankees fan left a comment on a related-article that said, “I really am finding this Santana thing a bit overkill. The Yankees might have 4 Santanas right in front of their noses…” Of course, those four Santanas are Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, and Phillip Hughes. The latter three have 16 career starts between them. Who needs Santana when you can have uncertainty? Apparently, it's the Yankees. Boston fans feel the same way about Jacoby Ellsbury. He has been touted as “the next coming” because of one stellar postseason. He’ll have to be pretty damn good to justify passing on Santana.

The Mets gave up four of their top seven prospects (Guerra, Gomez, Mulvey, and Humber) according to Baseball America. I haven’t seen or a heard a single mention by anyone that the Mets gave up too much. The Mets instantly became a World Series contender and possible favorite by adding Santana to its rotation. One would think that with the Tigers putting together an all-world lineup capable of rockin’ out 1,000 runs that an AL team would feel the need to get involved. To be fair to Boston, it actually has a pitching staff that can be counted on. Still, it had the means to add Santana and didn't. While Boston and New York are patting themselves on the back because the other didn’t get Santana, the Tigers are the big winner in all of this. Here are just a few of the gazillion reasons why the Tigers scored big-time with this trade…

* The two biggest threats to the Tigers in the AL are New York and Boston. Santana to either of those teams would’ve changed the landscape for 2008 dramatically. Instead, the Red Sox and Yankees come back with essentially the same teams—unless you want to make a big deal about Pettitte in NY—while the Tigers added Cabrera, Willis, and Renteria.

*Santana is no longer in the division which means the Tigers won’t see him six times per year like they did last season.

*The Tigers don’t have to contend with the Johan Santana/Francisco Liriano combo that propelled the Twins through a 31-7 stretch in 2006 that culminated in winning the division after trailing by 12.5 games. The Twins are annoying with Santana alone. They are downright scary with Santana and Liriano.

*Since the Yankees and Red Sox passed on him, the Tigers won’t have to face Santana at any point in the AL playoffs where a pitcher of his caliber does the most damage.

*The Yankees play six games against the Mets which could very well mean they’ll have to face Santana twice. The Tigers won’t face him at all. Last season, the Tigers faced Santana six times and the Yankees only had to seem him once. That should be worth a few games in the standings for the Tigers.

All of these little things add up to one huge boost for Detroit’s chances of reaching and ultimately winning the World Series.

I thought for sure that the Yankees or Red Sox would reach into their unlimited pocketbooks—with Detroit’s $130 payroll, am I still allowed to say things like this?—and gleefully plug Santana right into the top of the rotation. I’m blown away that this didn’t happen. Back in early December when the Santana-negotiations heated up—even after the Tigers had added Cabrera—I felt that if either the Yankees or the Red Sox added Santana, they would be the favorite to come out of the AL slightly ahead of Detroit. If neither ended up with him, Detroit’s addition of Cabrera and Willis would put the Tigers on top. I haven’t changed my mind. This trade was huge for the Tigers. If it can be assumed that Santana was definitely going to be traded and it can be assumed that the Red Sox and Yankees were the two primary contenders for his services, then this trade may end up being nearly as important as the Miguel Cabrera-trade. Avoiding the wrath of Santana/Liriano while also avoiding having to face Santana against the Red Sox or Yankees in the post-season is huge.

I could understand New York’s decision to pass on Santana if it had focused its attention on adding another top-flight starter. Thankfully, that doesn’t seem to be in the works either. The Yankees passed on Dan Haren who is now in Arizona. They also appear to be passing on Erik Bedard who is likely headed to Seattle. Midway through the 2007-season when the Tigers were an offensive juggernaut, Dave Dombrowski said he would not be adding offense at the trade-deadline. That statement broke my heart considering the Tigers were getting subpar offensive production from third base, first base, and left-field all of which are positions that are generally counted on for offensive production. Despite Dombrowksi's optimism, the Tigers needed to look at adding offense. Instead, they decided to pass. Gary Sheffield got hurt just a short time later and the offense fell apart. My point is that Boston is in love with its rotation in the same way Dombrowski was in love with his lineup. Dombrowski no doubt learned a lesson and brought in "Miggy" in the off-season. Thankfully, Boston has chosen to learn its lesson before making a similar addition.

The 2007-season showed just how difficult it is to make the playoffs even if you bring back a team that just went to the World Series the year before in tact. The Tigers seemed to be poised for another run at the World Series with an even more talented team coming back last season. Injuries and inconsistencies proved to be too much and the Tigers came up just a few games short. Boston and New York’s indifference this off-season may go overlooked now but it should pay huge dividends for the Tigers in 2008.

The GM of infinite mastery strikes again

I have been waiting 28 years for a trade like the one the Tigers made on Tuesday. Nabbing Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis without giving up a single contributing piece for next season is just one of the things that makes this trade the biggest one in Detroit sports in my lifetime. I can’t think of another trade that brought in two All-Stars—one of which is a 25-year old lefty who already has 68 career wins and the other is a 24-year old third baseman whose similarity score most resembles Hank Aaron—who haven’t even entered the prime of their careers, yet. The way things generally work in MLB is that you trade talented youth for accomplished veterans. In this instance, the Tigers managed to trade talented youth for even more talented, accomplished youth.

The Tigers may have gotten a great combination of players but they certainly didn’t get them for cheap. Back in June, I put together a list of the 40 best prospects in the Tigers minor league system. In this trade alone, the Tigers gave up the #1, #2, #3, and #5 prospects along with Burke Badenhop (#24 and rising fast) and Mike Rabelo who would’ve made the list but started the season in Detroit because of Vance Wilson’s injury. Combine that with the Edgar Renteria trade and the Tigers have traded their top five prospects and six of the top seven prospects in the last month alone. It’s extraordinary to think that Dave Dombrowski spent four years re-tooling the Tigers moribund farm system and--in just one month--all of that hard work and patience got cashed in in two moves. This is exactly how the Yankees and Red Sox have been doing business for years. It’s great to be on the ecstatic side of one of these deals for once. To look at things incredibly bluntly and simplistically, the minors are for cheapskates and losers. The Tigers are neither anymore.

There are a number of fascinating elements to this trade. For starters, the arrival of Cabrera mercifully spells the end of Brandon Inge’s bat from the third base position. Third base is generally a position that is expected to contribute respectable offensive numbers and Inge wasn’t doing that. However, with Pudge possibly on his way out after this season, Inge could again become a factor at catcher. This is just speculation on my part but the Tigers could do a lot worse than having Inge’s bat coming from the catcher-position. In the intermediate, Inge could be a valuable utility guy in the infield. Look for him to not only spell Cabrera at third base but possibly get in at shortstop and second base as well if he stays which gets more and more unlikely by the day. Seeing Inge at 2B would certainly take some time to get used to from a visual perspective.

Something else to think about is the impressive bat of Dontrelle Willis. In 2007, he hit .286 with an impressive OPS+ of 121. Just to compare, that was better than Pudge, Sean Casey, Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe, and Marcus Thames; none had an OPS+ greater than 100. Before I get too carried away, it’s important to note that ’07 was by far Willis’ best season with the bat. The rest of his career has been decent for a pitcher but certainly less than spectacular for an everyday hitter. However, if Willis’ performance in ’07 is a sign that his hitting skills are on the rise, his arrival to the American League adds some versatility to the Tigers lineup. All the more interesting is the fact that Willis bats left-handed which is something the Tigers are short on. It’ll be interesting to see if the Tigers plan on using him at all as a pinch-hitter or in any hitting capacity.

Incredibly, the Tigers now have six players in the lineup who were All-Stars in 2007. Throw in Gary Sheffield and Curtis Granderson—who were two of the biggest snubs in All-Star history—and the Tigers trot out eight All-Star caliber hitters on any given night. As if that isn’t impressive enough, the addition of Jacque Jones now allows the Tigers to platoon him with Marcus Thames in the ninth spot to create a virtual All-Star-caliber hitter. Marcus Thames hit .310 against lefties with a 128 OPS+--or a .927 OPS—in 2007 and Jacque Jones’ career OPS+ is 110—or an .825 OPS—against righties. This offense—if it can stay healthy—should be as good as any offense in our lifetime. Much of the expected offensive fireworks hinges on Gary Sheffield’s health. However, the addition of Cabrera will give the Tigers a powerful lineup regardless. Bill from the Detroit Tigers Weblog ran a simulation and discovered that this offense should generate around 5.8 runs per game. If everyone stays healthy--and most importantly if Sheff's shoulder is fully recovered--I think there's a pretty good chance it could be even more than that.

This is literally a once-in-a-lifetime deal. The Tigers may have issues with the bullpen but no team in MLB has a better lineup and few can touch the depth of the rotation. Dave Dombrowski is the best GM in baseball just ahead of Randy Smith everyone else. It’s one thing to run a baseball team when an unlimited payroll or a loaded farm system is waiting for you the day you take the job like the Yankees or Red Sox. It’s something entirely different—and with a degree of difficulty vastly more impressive—to take over an organization with neither and turn it into one of the two or three best organizations in baseball in just four years.

The addition of Cabrera and Willis brings the total number of Latinos in the starting lineup to six. So, —just as a bit of advice—the next time you visit South America you may want to wear an Old English D cap. It may just be a “get out of kidnapping free” card.

2007 DIBS Awards

Press Release

Nov. 29, 2007
For immediate release

ORDONEZ NAMED TIGERS PLAYER OF YEAR
Verlander top pitcher, Granderson breakout player

DETROIT — The Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes are proud to announce the results of the 2007 DIBS Awards balloting.

DIBS (Detroit Independent Baseball Scribes) is a collection of independent Web sites that cover the Detroit Tigers. Formed by Brian Borawski, Bill Ferris and Ryan Sosin in 2005 with the idea of uniting a community of fans and writers, DIBS is focused on improving and promoting the quality sports coverage taking place on the internet.

Magglio Ordonez was selected by 14 of 16 DIBS voters as the player of the year. The Tigers’ right fielder finished second in Most Valuable Player balloting by baseball writers this season. His .434 on-base-percentage coupled with a .595 slugging (1.029 OPS) made Ordonez a force at the plate all season. He hit 28 home runs and 54 doubles to go with 139 RBI. Curtis Granderson received the remaining two first-place votes. His 20 stolen bases, 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 home runs season put him in rare air, allowing him to join just Willie Mays and Frank “Wildfire” Schulte at the time. A left-handed center fielder, Granderson got on base a .361 rate and slugged .552 (.913OPS). Placido Polanco, who completed an errorless season at second base, placed third overall with two second-place votes an 11 third.

Right-handed starter Justin Verlander was the unanimous selection for Tigers pitcher of the year. His no-hitter pitched against Milwaukee June 12 is undoubtedly one of the highlights of the Tigers season, but he was consistent throughout the year and finished 18-6 with an ERA of 3.66 and 1.23 WHIP. He struck out 183 and walked 67 in 201-2/3 innings pitched. Closer Todd Jones finished runner-up with 10 second-place and one third-place votes. He made 38 saves in 44 chances (86.4 percent success) and had a 4.26 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Left-handed middle reliever Bobby Seay placed third overall with two second-place and eight third-place votes. He had a 2.33 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He struck out 38 and walked 15 in 46-1/3 innings pitched.

Granderson was also named breakout player of the year with nine of 16 first-place votes. Utilityman Ryan Raburn, called up from Triple-A Toledo in July, finished second in balloting with four first-place, four second-place and four third-place votes. He got on base at a .304 rate and slugged .507 (.847 OPS) while playing in 49 games. He had four home runs, 12 doubles, two triples and 27 RBI. Pitcher Jair Jurrjens, now a member of the Atlanta Braves organization after being included in a trade for shortstop Edgar Renteria, finished third in voting with one first-place vote, five second-place votes and five third-place votes. Jurrjens started seven games for the Tigers. His ERA was 4.70 to go with a 1.14 WHIP. He struck out 13 and walked 11 in 30-2/3 innings pitched. Receiving his first start Aug. 15, Jurrjens pitched a span of games from Aug. 21 to Sept. 16 where he gave up just one run per game.

The blogs that voted included:

Roar of the Tigers
Mack Avenue Tigers
Out of Bounds/Johnny Grubb
Wayne Fontes Experience
Daily Fungo
Detroit Tiger Tales
Bless You Boys
Leelanau Sports Guy
The Fanhouse
D Town Baseball
Take 75 North
Grandy Report
From the Copa
Detroit Tigers Weblog
Tigerblog
Motown Sports Revival



My ballot is below…

Tiger player of the year

1). Mags
2). Granderson
3). Polanco

This was how most people saw it. Sheff and Granderson would’ve had a battle for second if not for the shoulder injury.

Tiger pitcher of the year

1). Verlander
2). Bobby Seay
3). Todd Jones

Jones finished second ahead of Seay. I couldn’t bring myself to vote that way. Seay had a much better season statistically. That a guy with an appropriate nickname like “rollercoaster” finishes second for “Tigers Pitcher of the Year” just goes to show how dire the pitching situation was for the Tigers in 2007. Seay certainly was a pleasant surprise.

Tiger breakout player of the year

1). Raburn
2). Durbin
3). (tie) Jurrjens
3). (tie) Bazardo

This award is a bit ambiguous and I think it’s meant to be that way. Granderson won hands down with a whopping nine first place votes (out of 16). He didn't receive a single second or third place vote from the seven voters who didn't vote him #1 so there is certainly many different interpretations going on with regards to how to define "breakout player." Granderson finished 3rd in the voting for the same award last season. I didn’t vote for Granderson this year and I didn’t vote for him last year. My interpretation of “breakout player” precluded Granderson from being on either of my ballots the last two years. So, I went with Raburn first. He was a pleasant surprise and certainly “broke out”. Durbin did more than anyone could have possibly imagined back at the start of spring training before Rogers went out. Jurrjens and Bazardo were a toss-up. I was the only voter who listed Bazardo but he quietly put together a season equally impressive--if not more impressive--than Jurrjens who finished second. Both did some OK things but that was about it. Twelve players received votes in this category including Paws who is the Tigers mascot.

Tigers transformation to Marlins is almost complete

The Tigers were quick to acquire the shortstop that would enable the club to finally move Carlos Guillen to first-base permanently. Acquiring Edgar Renteria dually shores up the infield and effectively removes the Tigers from the A-Rod Sweepstakes. With the Yankees and Tigers out of the picture, it looks like A-Rod will either go to the Dodgers, Cubs, or Angels. Scott Boras can’t be too pleased with an audience of three teams. That seriously reduces his bargaining power. Nonetheless, the Tigers picked up Renteria in almost the exact same way they did Sheffield last season. They did it quick—even quicker than the Sheffield trade—and had to part with some pretty good prospects. Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland clearly look for familiar players who have helped them win in the past. It’s no coincidence that Sheffield and Renteria were both members of the ’97 Florida Marlins in which Jim Leyland was the Manager and Dave Dombrowski was the General Manager. Unfortunately for them, the number of productive ex-’97 Marlins who are left to acquire is basically zero. That means the Tigers will have to get creative next off-season. I’ll be looking forward to that especially with another ex- Marlin (Pudge) and his $13 million coming off the payroll.

My first reaction to the trade was basically the same reaction I had to the Sheffield trade last season. It seems steep. Although, Sheffield is more important and came at a cheaper price. Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez are big-time prospects. Jurrjens was considerably more advanced than Hernandez but both were known commodities around MLB. The Tigers have a surplus of pitching in the organization with Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello still waiting to get into the starting rotation. Losing Jurrjens stings in the sense that it immediately downgrades the overall talent level in the minors but it won’t affect the Tigers chances of winning a World Series in the near future. The Sheffield trade—giving up Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan, and Anthony Claggett—brought the same dynamic. The Tigers lucked-out when Sanchez suffered a serious elbow injury for the Yankees but considering Sheffield's health--or lack thereof--the winner of that trade is still uncertain. Losing prospects like Sanchez and Jurrjens is especially difficult for Tigers fans because for 20+ years, there wasn’t but one or two players who were as good as either. We’re not used to seeing the “future” traded away. Any time a player like Juan Encarnacion, Gabe Kapler, or Justin Thompson came along, the Tigers held on to them like they were gold. Fortunately, the Tigers have legitimate “prospects” now and equally fortunate is the fact that the Tigers are good enough to be able to trade away those prospects without incurring years of regret. The Tigers traded away John Smoltz 20 years ago and—because the organization was run into the ground—it has been a notorious trade ever since. Even if Jurrjens turns into the next Smoltz, or Hernandez becomes the next Torii Hunter, fans will be too busy cheering for the Tigers in October to dwell on a trade gone awry.

I’m remorseful to see Jurrjens and Hernandez go; Jurrjens especially. He has great command, a 95-MPH fastball, and the confidence to match. I think he’ll end up being a pretty good pitcher. However, you have to give to get. The Tigers needed a bona fide shortstop and the price for one of those is clearly not cheap. My concern is that Renteria isn’t a top-tier shortstop. The Tigers didn’t just seek anyone to replace Guillen. The goal was to come close to replacing Guillen’s power and/or drastically improve the position defensively. I’m not sure Renteria does either. His career OPS+ is 97. He has had three above-average seasons in 12 years. He is extremely inconsistent from year to year as you can expect anything from an OPS+ of 77 to 130. He is coming off the second-best season of his career as he posted an OPS+ of 125. His best season came in 2003 in which he produced an OPS+ of 130. He followed that with two miserable seasons.

I don’t mind giving up prospects for a proven commodity. The current depth in the Tigers system allows for that trade-off. However, in this instance, I do at least slightly mind giving up Jurrjens and Hernandez for Renteria. According to Bill at The Detroit Tigers Weblog, the Tigers picked up 2 to 2.5 wins by essentially replacing Guillen’s defense and Sean Casey’s bat with Renteria. Two wins isn’t anything to scoff at but given Renteria’s unreliability from year to year, a two-win improvement is no guarantee. Plus, it’s not like the Braves had all the leverage in this deal and the Tigers had none. The Braves were actively trying to unload Renteria because Yunel Escobar—a promising, young shortstop in the Braves organization—was ready to take over. Given Renteria’s unreliability and Escobar’s pending promotion, it seems a little much to give up Jurrjens and Hernandez.

If I were a Braves fan, I would be elated with this deal. Not only does Escobar get to move into the shortstop position on an everyday basis, but the Braves also picked up a top-of-the-line pitching prospect and a centerfielder who has been drawing rave reviews ever since he stepped foot in the minor leagues. Players like Renteria are relatively easy to find. This trade isn’t going to cripple the Tigers. The chances are actually very good that this trade will have a net impact of zero or slightly positive. That said, I don’t think there is any doubt that the Braves got the better end of this deal.

After quickly acquiring Sheffield early in the off-season last year, the Tigers were done with major acquisitions despite some speculation to the contrary. The same could be the case this year at least offensively. Although, the recent revelation that Joel Zumaya might miss at least half of the 2008 season makes finding a good-to-great relief-pitcher a high priority. Said injury might increase the odds that the Tigers will make a run at Mariano Rivera. The Tigers have long been rumored to be searching for a left-fielder but the combination of Marcus Thames and Timo Perez apparently seems somewhat manageable to the front-office. Plus, with the payroll at an all-time high (well over $100 million) and the increased need to find bullpen help, I think the offense is pretty much the way it’ll look on opening day.

A-Rod in Detroit

With the World Series under way, we are just a few weeks from the beginning of the A-Rod sweepstakes. The courtship of A-Rod will be one of the most highly publicized events in sports history. I’m getting sick just thinking about the daily coverage that we’ll have to endure. The negotiations will likely end with the richest player contract ever awarded in American sports history. Who honestly thought we’d see this again after the public outcry the last time a team handed out the richest contract in American sports history to A-Rod?

Nonetheless, the expectations are that A-Rod’s annual salary will reach $30 million if not more. There will be a handful of intriguing subplots. Boston could get involved which would add even more fuel to the Boston/NewYork drama. Boston thought it had A-Rod in 2003 when it was prepared to ship Manny Ramirez to the Rangers but the trade was vetoed by the players union. When A-Rod was finally traded to the Yankees, he said, “I don't really care what Red Sox fans are thinking." I wonder if Red Sox fans will remember that. The Yankees have publicly stated that they will not get into a bidding war. It’ll be interesting to see if they stand by that stance. It’ll also be interesting to see if the owners involved in the bidding have any spines at all when dealing with Scott Boras. There is always someone (see; the Texas Rangers) who is willing to go for broke. It would be fascinating to see the owners refuse to break the bank. That’s about as likely as the Royals getting involved in the bidding, though.

The likelihood of A-Rod landing in Detroit hovers right around 0%. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t a gazillion questions Tigers fans around the country are asking each other. Here are just a few of the questions the A-Rod debate raises…


Would A-Rod ever come to Detroit?

No. There are three ways a superstar finds himself in Detroit. 1). He is drafted by Detroit. 2). He is injured and the Tigers overpay. 3). He is old and the Tigers overpay. A-Rod doesn’t fit into any of those categories. That pretty much makes the rest of this post irrelevant. However, I promised question(s)...


Would the Tigers be better with A-Rod?

I think most people would be surprised at how many fans actually think the Tigers would be worse off with A-Rod for various bum/choker related reasons. The truth is that all of those reasons are ridiculous. The Tigers would clearly be better with A-Rod. Since Carlos Guillen is moving to first-base, A-Rod would essentially be replacing Sean Casey in the lineup. The difference between A-Rod and Sean Casey is like the difference between me two minutes before a pizza buffet and two minutes after a pizza buffet. A middle-of-the order threesome of Magglio Ordonez/Alex Rodriguez/Gary Sheffield would be one of the greatest in MLB history. The Tigers almost certainly would have made the playoffs with an additional 54 home-runs and 156 RBIs despite the injuries and slumps that plagued their season.


Can the Tigers win by paying one player over 30% of the total payroll?

Dave Dombrowski referenced this statistic when asked recently about whether the Tigers would pursue A-Rod in the off-season. Dombrowski is a smart guy who has brilliantly reshaped the franchise. Although, I am surprised that he would buy into that sort of thinking. The 30% stat is mostly an empty statistic in baseball where there is no salary cap. In football—where there is a salary cap—it makes sense to want to avoid paying one player a certain amount of the payroll. In baseball—especially in the larger markets—that statistic is irrelevant. Mike Ilitch can shell out as much money as he wants so it doesn’t matter how much money one player makes. It matters how much he is willing to spend. If Ilitch were to pay A-Rod 30% of a 100-million payroll, then the Tigers could not realistically win in the near future. It would require dumping close to $30 million in salary from the existing team which would cripple the franchise. However, if he were to pay A-Rod 30% of a $125 million payroll, then the Tigers would be the best team in baseball next season. The 30% number isn’t important. The payroll is. Also, the Colorado Rockies are in the World Series as I type this and Todd Helton currently takes up 30.5% of the payroll. There is no Salary God who prevents teams with a player making 30% of the payroll from winning.


Would Dombrowski have to gut the team to afford A-Rod?

Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press suggests that the Tigers would have to say goodbye to Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco, Jeremy Bonderman, and Brandon Inge to bring in A-Rod. Again, since there is no salary cap in baseball, the Tigers wouldn’t have to say goodbye to anyone necessarily. It all depends on what Mike Ilitch is willing to pay. I don’t know the answer to this and I don’t think Jon Paul Morosi does either. The reality is that if Ilitch isn’t willing to add to the payroll, then A-Rod won’t be coming to Detroit anyways. Giving up Guillen, Polanco, Bonderman and Inge isn’t even a possibility. It’s also important to note that adding A-Rod would be a move geared for the long term when many of the current Tigers won’t even be on the roster. Next season, Pudge and his $13 come off the books. Two years from now, Gary Sheffield and his $14 million come off the books. The Tigers have a bevy of young, relatively inexpensive talent under contract. Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, Andrew Miller, Jair Jurrjens, Rick Porcello, and Cameron Maybin are going to be the face of the franchise five years from now. Placido Polanco, Brandon Inge, and Curtis Granderson will all be affordable for the foreseeable future. If Ilitch is willing to add to the payroll temporarily, the Tigers are in a perfect position to have a player of A-Rod’s caliber—and salary—mesh with a deep, relatively inexpensive core. Only Ilitch knows his limits. If we knew his payroll limit was not a cent higher than $100 million, then we could all save ourselves another sentence on the A-Rod topic.


Are A-Rod’s playoff struggles valid concerns?

No. Some—not all—media people love to harp on this sort of thing. Just last year the Red Wings re-signed Pavel Datsyuk which prompted major criticism from much of the Detroit media because of his underwhelming playoff performances. Yep, Datsyuk’s reputation was all but sealed after just 21 playoff games. The rest—as we know—is history as Datsyuk tore up the first three rounds of the playoffs just a couple months later netting 16 points in 18 games. The Yankees—as a team—have struggled mightily in the playoffs over the last three seasons. The New York-experience has humbled the careers of many superstars such as Randy Johnson, Jason Giambi, Kevin Brown, and Mike Mussina just to name a few. Alex Rodriguez has flourished in New York winning two MVPs in just four years (The ’07 MVP is a mere formality). Just three years ago, he was considered an excellent playoff performer having amassed a .330 batting average in 103 postseason at-bats. A-Rod is not damned to be a playoff-choker for the rest of his career.


Should the Tigers make a play for A-Rod?

Yes with the caveat the Ilitch be willing to add enough to the payroll where the Tigers would keep A-Rod and their core. A-Rod—barring injury—would keep Detroit on the forefront of the baseball world for ten more years at a minimum. There is a good chance that he’ll break the all-time records for home runs, RBIs, and hits among others. Think Bonds’ home-run chase times three without all of the negativity. It will be huge. Despite the Tigers recent resurgence, the Red Sox and Yankees are still the center of the baseball universe. A-Rod would change that immediately. His presence would have a far-reaching impact on everything from attracting free-agents to increasing the franchise’s value. I’ve always felt that A-Rod is as much a “numbers” guy as he is a “Championship” guy. I just get the feeling that he is well aware of the pace that he is on and the records he could break. He is in tremendous shape. When you put those two things together, A-Rod could easily be playing baseball for 14 more years.


Would it be disappointing if the Tigers don’t sign—or even attempt to sign—A-Rod?

Well, since there’s probably less than a 1% chance the Tigers actually sign or even go after him, my answer is no. The Tigers are in excellent shape as they stand right now. They have more youthful talent than any other organization in baseball. The core is young and—most importantly—wants to be in Detroit. The Tigers should be even better next season when injuries probably won’t have the same factor and the lineup is more potent with the expected return to health of Gary Sheffield and the hopeful addition of a productive shortstop such as Edgar Renteria. The Tigers don’t need A-Rod. If Ilitch has a cap limit that makes signing A-Rod impossible, then it’s no big deal. However, if he has the money, he should give it a shot. I would certainly not want Ilitch and Dombrowski to fall under the Boras spell and give into all of the inevitably ridiculous demands he will ask for. There is a fine line between being the highest bidder and outbidding yourself. Dombrowski knows that line which makes the Tigers unlikely suitors. Some team will come along ala the Texas Rangers in 2000 and bite hard on the Boras sell. The only chance the Tigers really have is if every team backs off on talks of $30 million. The problem then would be that the Yankees would likely be back in the picture for an extension at that point. It would take the perfect storm of relative league-wide disinterest, the Tigers willingness to pay between $28 and $30 million, and a willingness by A-Rod to play in Detroit. In other words, start thinking about Raul Ibanez and Edgar Renteria.

Will the Tigers even make an official offer?

I highly doubt it. Anaheim won’t win until it gets Vlad some help. The New York teams have a ton of money to spend. Boston will surely get involved. The Tigers may stick around just long enough to check out the competition before politely saying, “not interested.” However, one question that I would love to ask Mike Ilitch is how much he would have paid to guarantee a playoff bid in 2007. More specifically, if he were told by an all-knowing oracle before the ’07 season that the Tigers would definitely not make the playoffs but he could change all that for an additional $30 million, would he have paid it? I really have no idea how much simply making the playoffs is worth to an owner. Knowing that would help many of us understand how much a player of A-Rod’s caliber is worth.

Be consistent when judging Leyland

One of the unique things about sports is that anyone can have an opinion—no matter how ludicrous—without ever having to justify it. Last season, the Tigers had a miraculous run to the World Series. In what was an obvious violation of the correlation does not equal causation scientific mantra, Jim Leyland was canonized in Detroit for being the savior of Detroit baseball. Leyland wasn’t the manager in ’05 or any of the other disastrous seasons. He was the manager in ’06. So, Leyland must have been responsible for the Tigers run in 2006, right? The baseball world certainly took that reasoning “hook, line and sinker” naming Leyland the Manager of the Year in the AL and proclamations that Leyland is the best manager in the game. Now, that award would have been given to the manager of any team that improved 24 games from the previous season. So Leyland getting the award doesn’t necessarily mean that the baseball world was duped. But, I think most Detroit fans were caught up in the “Leyland is God” movement and I think most of the baseball analysts outside of Detroit were too.

Judging from the tone of what you have read thus far, I’m guessing you have figured out that I don’t buy into that line of thinking. But, for the people that do think that way, you also have to blame Leyland for everything that the Tigers didn’t accomplish in 2007. If Leyland was the best manager in baseball in 2006, then he has to be considered one of the worst managers in baseball in 2007. He took a team that entered the World Series as huge favorites just a few months earlier, and turned it into an 87-win, underachiever. Or, at least that’s what you should believe if you thought Leyland resurrected the Tigers in 2006. Hopefully, judging from the tone of the last few sentences, you have also figured out that I don’t buy into that line of thinking either. Leyland was only negligibly responsible for the Tigers success in 2006 and he was only negligibly responsible for the Tigers failures in 2007.

Leyland has received far too much credit for what the Tigers accomplished last year. Conversely, Alan Trammell took way too much blame for what transpired in 2003-2005. He was put into a situation with terrible talent and little financial backing. Even when Mike Illitch pulled out his pocketbook for the 2005 season, it only netted a half-season from a still-recovering Magglio Ordonez and a half-season from Troy Percival. Neither move was good enough to impact the club in the slightest. Carlos Guillen missed half the year with an injury as well. The team was already bad and the best players missed half the season. Turning that mess into even a .500 season was an impossible task for Trammell. Instead of seeing the situation for what it was, the Tigers took the chance to make Tram the goat and brought in Leyland. Opting for a fresh start is one thing but allowing Trammell to take the brunt of the criticism for Illitch’s indiscretions was unacceptable. Leyland was given all of the glory for inheriting a massive infusion of talent that coincided with Tram’s departure.

While it is true that the Tigers won 24 more games with Leyland in his first season, it is also true that Leyland had a healthy Ordonez and Guillen, a full-season from Placido Polanco and the additions of Curtis Granderson, Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, Kenny Rogers, and Todd Jones. If I remember correctly, those players are the reason the Tigers went to the World Series in 2006. How good of a job would Leyland have done with the rosters Trammell had to deal with? Check out what Leyland did with the Marlins in 1998 for a good indication (hint: .333 winning percentage). There is no doubt in my mind that the Tigers would’ve made the playoffs last season with Tram. The team had an infusion of talent rarely seen in MLB and that infusion just happened to coincide with the arrival of Leyland. Thus, Leyland is your savior.

This is certainly not a knock on Leyland. I think he does a decent job. This is also not an endorsement of Trammell. He wasn’t the greatest manager but he certainly took way too much blame for the state of the franchise. Leyland had been in the same situation that Trammell was in many times in his career and he didn’t do any better. When Leyland had talent (Pirates ‘90-92, Marlins ‘97) his teams performed well. When his teams didn’t have talent his teams were terrible. Leyland lost at least 90 games for the Pirates, Marlins, and Rockies. In 16 seasons, he has managed teams to a .500 or better record just seven times. His career winning percentage is .496. Leyland didn’t magically become the greatest manager of all-time over one off-season.

The inspiration for this post came from seeing and hearing so many people making excuses for Leyland in the face of the Tigers disappointing ’07-showing. The same people making the excuses are the same people that lauded Leyland for being the greatest manager ever last season. There’s no doubt that the Tigers have suffered an uncanny amount of injuries this year. It would have been difficult for any manager to lead the Tigers to the playoffs with partial seasons from Joel Zumaya, Kenny Rogers, and Gary Sheffield. The Tigers had to play seven pitchers with fewer than 10 games pitched in their careers. No club can withstand that sort of instability in the pitching department. I’m quite sure that injuries are the reasons why the Tigers disappointed in 2007 in the same way an unprecedented talent overhaul was the reason the Tigers won in 2006. Leyland won in ’06 because he had the talent. Leyland lost in ’07 because he didn’t have the talent. If you’re intent on giving Leyland the credit for leading the Tigers to the World Series in ’06, though, then you should be the first in line to pile-on Leyland for ruining the ’07 campaign. All I’m asking for is some consistency. Don’t rip Tram for losing when he didn’t have the talent and then give Leyland a free pass when he didn’t have the talent. Likewise, don’t credit Leyland in ’06 and let him off the hook in ’07. You can’t have it both ways. For me, Leyland is an average manager who doesn’t have the ability to improve a team 24 games or keep a team from the playoffs. The Tigers won in ’06 and the Tigers lost in ’07. Leyland, like Trammell, was incapable of preventing either from happening.

Great week to be a Tigers fan

To say the Tigers have struggled lately would be an understatement. The Tigers are 7-15 in their last 22 games and many of those losses were of the blowout variety. Nobody knows if the “wheels are gong to come off” for good or if the Tigers are going to “right the ship” in time to make the playoffs. It’s a tenuous time to be a Tigers fan but it isn’t all bad. In fact, this week might be the most exciting week of the season. There are a bunch of things going on right now—some of it on the field but most of it off the field—worth getting psyched about. Here is all the stuff going on with the Tigers just this week alone…

1). Maybin is one step closer.

Uber-prospect Cameron Maybin is one step closer to patrolling the outfield in Detroit. He was promoted, as expected, from Lakeland (A+) to Erie (AA). The Tigers had planned on moving him up towards the end of the season to get him used to a much more competitive league for next season. Maybin recently recovered from a shoulder injury that kept him out for a month and was quickly promoted upon returning. In 83 games at Lakeland, Maybin fared pretty well. He hit .304 with a respectable OPS of .879. Although he led the team in strikeouts, he also led the team in walks. He also managed to steal 25 bases. He put together the type of all-around season that would do justice to his reputation as a five-tool player. His power numbers weren’t where many expected but he had a pretty good season in Lakeland nonetheless. Maybin has quickly put to rest any concerns that AA ball would be a problem for him. He homered in each of his first three games and is hitting a sizzling .462 in four games. Those numbers will obviously tail off but it’s great to see him one step away from the big leagues.

2). Porcello and Co. are in the fold.

The Tigers have reached deals with their top prospects from the 2007 draft. Both are 18. Both are 6'5. And both are going to "blow the doors off" the minors. There were more than a few analysts that predicted the Tigers and Rick Porcello would not come to a deal before the August 15th deadline. Those analysts obviously don’t know Dave Dombrowski or his M.O. The Tigers knew they were going to sign Porcello when they drafted him and anyone who is familiar with Dombrowski knew it too. You don’t give a player the largest contract ever given to a High Schooler on a whim. Porcello has Josh Beckett-type talent and the Tigers stole him. He is in the fold and—like Andrew Miller—he will be on the fast track to the majors. He’ll likely destroy the minors next season and barring an injury (please don't let this happen), make his MLB debut in 2009. The Tigers also signed Casey Crosby who was slotted to go within the first two rounds before dropping for the same reason that Porcello dropped. The Tigers dished out the dough and now have two premier prospects to show for it. I love seeing all this pitching in the minors but sooner or later, some of that pitching will need to get shipped off to find a long-term, power-hitting first baseman, a catcher, and a left-fielder.


3). Zumaya rehab start

Joel Zumaya—right in line with the guarantee that he made when he first injured his finger—is on schedule to return in August. He pitched 2/3 of an inning—or 18 pitches—at Toledo (AAA) in his first action since May 1st. He topped out at 94 MPH which isn’t bad considering he hasn’t thrown a “live” pitch in more than three months. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tigers bullpen shave two full runs off its ERA with the return of Zumaya. Things have been so bad that even the return of Fernando Rodney might shave off a run. I have to give Rodney credit for striking out three in a row after giving up a lead-off double in the bottom of the ninth last night. That was huge. In more Zumaya news, Richard Zumaya—the Tigers' 43rd draft pick in May and Joel’s younger brother—has 12 strike outs and a 1.42 ERA in 12 innings with the GCL Tigers.

4). Jurrjens MLB debut

The Tigers are set to debut another in a long line of talented prospects tomorrow in the final game of the two-game series against Cleveland. We’ve seen Andrew Miller, Virgil Vasquez, Jordan Tata, and Eulogia De La Cruz make their MLB debuts this season. Now, we're going to see Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens is more highly-touted than all of the above with the exception of Miller. Jurrjens’ debut will be especially intriguing to Tigers fans who have followed his rise through the Tigers minor league system. He started in the organization in 2003 as a 17-year old. Four years later, he’s making his MLB debut in the thick of a pennant race. I have no delusions that Jurrjens will be able to duplicate his minor league success immediately. Virgil Vasquez has been a perfect example of a). not expecting too much in a MLB debut and b). not jumping to conclusions after one start. It’ll just be nice to see Jurrjens pitch for the first time. And to think--if we believe reports out of Pittsburgh, Jurrjens was almost traded for Jack Wilson at the trade deadline. Who let Randy Smith back in the building?

5). Kenny should be back soon.

Kenny Rogers is apparently optimistic about returning to the rotation fairly soon. He was encouraged by news that his elbow inflammation appears to be healing. It is doubtful that he’ll be back to 100% at any time this season but an effective Kenny Rogers is the difference between possibly missing the playoffs (see; ’07) and reaching the World Series (see; ’06).


6). Tigers are in Cleveland

The Tigers are playing the most important, two-game, August series that you’ll ever see. The Tigers are in Cleveland for a first-place standoff. Since the Tigers took game one with fantastic pitching all-the-way around and an offensive explosion in the tenth inning, they are guaranteed to be in first place for at least two more days. Pennant races past April were vacant in Detroit for the last 15 years. This is what we've been waiting for!

The Tigers are uniquely good

The Tigers have cooled off their white-hot offensive pace a bit since the All-Star break but they still hold a not-so-slim 40-run lead over the next closest teams (Cleveland and Philadelphia). Barring a disaster, the Tigers should easily lead MLB in runs scored at season’s end. Despite an offensive renaissance last season, the Tigers still only managed to finish 9th in MLB in runs scored. We can all thank Gary Sheffield for that eight-spot jump. Pitching unexpectedly stole the show in ’06.

Despite a slow start in ’07, Tigers pitching has slowly crept into the top-six in the AL in runs allowed (13th in MLB). Based on the way the team has been pitching lately it could easily finish in the top three in the AL and the top ten in MLB. Considering the Tigers have been without Kenny Rogers and Joel Zumaya for the majority of the season; that would be quite a feat. As impressive as Tigers pitching has been in the face of so many injuries this season, it doesn’t come close to last season’s performance. The Tigers led MLB in fewest runs against in 2006. Only two AL teams have led MLB in fewest runs against in the last 17 years (Seattle did it in 2001).

While the Tigers won’t duplicate their feat of leading MLB in runs allowed this season, I started to wonder how often a team has led MLB in runs scored or runs allowed in one season and then led MLB in the other category the next season. Since the AL generally leads MLB in runs scored and the NL generally leads MLB in fewest runs allowed, I guessed that it hadn’t happen much. In fact, it hasn’t happened since the LA Dodgers did it leading MLB in runs scored in 1974 and runs allowed in 1975. The Tigers are in excellent shape to accomplish something that hasn’t been done in 32 years. The Mariners led MLB in runs scored and fewest runs against in 2001 which is a feat of historic proportions. Unfortunately for the good people of the Great Northwest, that resulted in a big fat pile of nothing in the hardware department. Hopefully the Tigers can turn their two-year feat into something bigger.


The Tigers are also trying to accomplish something that nobody would’ve predicted last year. With Boston and New York seemingly leading MLB in runs scored every other year, the Detroit Tigers are not the name that comes to mind when the discussion of leading MLB in runs scored is brought up. Amazingly, if the Tigers can hold on to the MLB lead in runs scored this season, they will have led MLB in runs scored the most times since 1970…and 1980…and 1990. They’ll have even led MLB in runs scored more than any team since 1992. Considering how dreadful the 90’s were to the Tigers—or maybe it’s the other way around—that certainly is unexpected.

This team can accomplish a lot of things that haven’t been accomplished in a long time. This team also has one of the greatest combinations of hitting and pitching that MLB has ever seen. I’m just hoping all of this translates into something more than an historical footnote. Maybe the key is not leading MLB in runs scored and runs allowed in the same season but rather spreading it out over two. Hopefully that’s the key to the Tigers getting back to the World Series and avoiding a fate similar to the ’01 Mariners. Yeah, that’s gotta be it.

Baseball doesn't get better than this

I’m not sure that I have ever seen a more action-packed first half of a MLB season. The shear amount of memorable moments is too lengthy to list. The milestones alone were remarkable in their abundance. Craig Biggio reached 3,000 hits and 1,000 extra-base hits. Roger Clemens reached 350 wins. Greg Maddux reached 340 wins (I am starting to think that there is an excellent chance that Maddux will finish his career with more wins than Clemens). Sammy Sosa got his 600th home run. Frank Thomas reached 500 home runs. Trevor Hoffman hit 500 saves. The second half will likely feature even more milestones like Tom Glavine's 300th win, Ken Griffey Jr’s 600th HR, A-Rod’s 500th HR, and Jim Thome’s 500th HR just to name a few. If the second half is anything like the first, then we’re in for an amazing finish to an already spectacular season.

There is an endless list of intriguing storylines for the Tigers as well entering the second half of the season. The AL Central should be a fight to the finish. The Tigers still have a shot at breaking the 1,000-run mark for the season. Mags is in the hunt for a batting title and an MVP. Curtis Granderson might break the single-season triples record and become the first player ever with 20 HRs, 20 doubles, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season. Verlander and Bondo could make a run for 20 wins. Sheffield is closing in on 500 home runs. With all that to look forward to, I am hoping—and ever-so-slightly expecting—that when the season is over the story of the second half will be how the Tigers evolved into a team for the ages.

The Peak is coming.

The fact that the Tigers were .5 games out of the best record in baseball at the All-Star break is remarkable. The Tigers featured one of the worst bullpens in the league. They had so many injuries that pitchers whom most people had never heard of (Tim Byrdak, Aquilino Lopez, Eulogio De La Cruz, Virgil Vasquez and Yorman Bazardo to name a few) found themselves pitching in crucial situations. Throw in the fact that the offense was dreadful in April and the starting rotation was without potentially its best pitcher (The Gambler) and the bullpen was without its best pitcher (Zoom-Zoom) and it’s amazing that this team is even in contention.

The Tigers haven’t even come close to playing their best baseball and that has resulted in a .600 winning percentage. The pieces necessary for this team to play its best baseball are slowly starting to come together. Rogers is back and pitching like it’s October of ’06. The offense has evolved into one of the most prolific offenses in MLB history. Zumaya will return in the second half to team with the newly acquired Jose Capellan to hopefully give the Tigers similar consistency to what they had last season. Chad Durbin should prove to be a godsend for the middle-innings. Zach Miner has a 1.65 ERA in 16.1 innings of work which looks like a typo but I’m pretty sure it isn’t. Everything that went wrong in the first half seems to be heading in the right direction.

The first question that comes to mind when I think about the Tigers in the second half is, where will the losses come from? Verlander and Bonderman should continue to pitch above the .666 winning percentage. I can’t see Kenny Rogers doing any worse than that considering the way he has been pitching. Andrew Miller is only going to get better which is scary considering his 3.35 ERA. Nate Robertson appears to be the weak link in the rotation and he might be the best 5th starter in the majors. I would even go as far as to say that the Tigers feature three #1's (Rogers, Verlander, and Bonderman), a #2 (Miller) and a #3 right now (Robertson). A staff that potent would be good enough to carry a team with a weak offense similar to what the Padres have accomplished in the NL. But the Tigers don’t have a weak offense. They have the best offense in baseball. So I’m wondering if it is even possible for this team not to run away with the division and the best record in baseball. Injuries could play an important role as always but this team is clearly equipped to handle injuries. If Mags or Sheff went down for an extended period of team, this team might just resemble last year’s squad which ended up in the World Series. Anytime one delves into theory it can result in putting expectations too high. When playing their best baseball, the Tigers should theoretically be the best team in baseball by a long shot. In practicality, even the best teams on paper barely win divisions on most occasions. Regardless of how this thing plays out, I don’t think there is a GM in baseball that wouldn’t trade places with the Tigers.

Help wanted for the bullpen?

I don’t necessarily think the Tigers need to make a trade at the deadline. I know it’s chic to hope the Tigers trade for some bullpen help. That certainly would not hurt things but I think that the bullpen sans Todd Jones and Fernando Rodney will be fine. Zumaya will be back. Capellan and McBride are serviceable. Bobby Seay has been pitching very well lately; he hasn’t given up a run since May 26th. Since Jim Leyland seems perfectly content with Jones and Rodney in the later roles, I don’t see the Tigers trading for help there. So, we’re really just talking about some extra middle-relief help unless Jones’ ERA climbs above 7.00. I am inclined to believe that players will emerge out of the current cast of characters to make for a good middle-innings bullpen. The Tigers had to part with one of their better pitching prospects (Chris Cody) to bring in an average reliever (Capellan). I’m guessing a big-name reliever will force the Tigers to part with one of their top five prospects. This is all speculation that will likely be answered on the field. If the bullpen turns it around before the deadline, you’ll likely see the Tigers stick with what they have and if it doesn’t, then let the Gagne/Otsuka rumors fly.

My preference would be for the Tigers to hold on to their prospects for the off-season to pursue a left-fielder, a first-baseman; or a shortstop if they start entertaining the idea of permanently moving Carlos Guillen to first. I hope the latter is at least something they’re considering. That move would accomplish the proverbial killing of two birds with one stone. It would increase productivity at first base and hopefully improve defense at shortstop. Guillen’s play at shortstop has been suspect at best over the last two years. He is a great player but he makes way too many blunders in the field. I understand that improving the offense is probably not one of the top priorities right now but it will be sooner than people think. First base is a run-producing position in MLB. The Tigers have a singles hitter—albeit a pretty good one—occupying that position right now. Sheffield, Mags, and Pudge are all getting older. The Tigers have one player in their starting lineup under the age of 30 (Granderson is 26). I don’t see Casey or Chris Shelton being the long-term answer at first so that issue will need to be addressed.

Finally, consistently good baseball.

I can’t think of a better season than what I witnessed in 2006. It will forever be the year that I think of first when I think of Tigers baseball. There is just no way to ever match that combination of unexpected dominance. However, it was always obvious that the Tigers were winning on a combination of grit and good fortune. That team was talented but the end-result was just so much better than what could have ever been expected. This season, the Tigers are winning by systematically destroying the opposition. It is indescribably enjoyable to turn on a Tigers game knowing that they are going to dominate the opposition on almost a nightly basis. Last season was more enjoyable in the “magical” sense. This season is more enjoyable from a talent perspective. I almost feel like I don’t deserve to watch a team this good. It feels wrong. But anytime I start feeling that way for too long, all I have to do is remind myself of the 90s and I don’t feel so undeserving anymore. It is so great to be able to enjoy a baseball team again. I didn’t care if the Tigers lost the World Series last year and I don’t care if they don’t win it this year. Seeing good baseball is all I ever asked for and now that I have it, I wouldn’t wish it away even for a World Series win.

Sheff for MVP?

There is no question in my mind that the most important off-season acquisition in baseball has been the addition of Gary Sheffield to the Tigers. His presence in an already stacked order means better pitches for everyone else in the lineup. Sheffield started off miserably posting a .191 batting average through May 1st. That alone has kept him from garnering attention as an MVP candidate. Magglio Ordonez and Alex Rodriguez have hit from day one making the AL MVP a two-horse race by most accounts. While I can’t question the caliber of seasons that Ordonez and Rodriguez are having, I think Sheffield has been the MVP of the American League. Since May 2 (58 games), Sheffield’s line is astonishing:

(Sheffield’s last 58 games)

Avg.—-HR—RBI—R—SB—BB---K
.350----19---50--56--10--33--16

I haven’t taken the time to compare that to the rest of the league but I would be shocked if there has been a hitter that has come close to putting up that kind of production since the beginning of May. I don’t expect Sheffield to garner much attention for the AL MVP in the same way he was left off of the AL All-Star team. The AL MVP is equal parts production and presentation. Not showing up in April probably cost Sheffield in the “presentation” department. Regardless, I can’t see how anyone has been more valuable to their team than Gary Sheffield.

Bonderman gets snubbed again

Is it even possible for Jeremy Bonderman to make the All-Star team? I’m starting to think that it’s not. Bondo came up short in the “Final Vote” to Boston’s Hideki Okajima to all but ensure a third-straight All-Star game snub. It’s not that Okajima isn’t deserving of the selection. In fact, I challenge anyone to find a pitcher in the history of the game who has put up better numbers than what Okajima has done for Boston this season (.88 ERA, .78 WHIP, .156 BAA, 41 innings). The rule that requires every team to have a representative at the All-Star game has meant there have been way too many deserving players left off All-Star teams over the past few years. That rule is misguided and the fans that it is supposed to benefit don't even care. I never enjoyed seeing a Tiger player in the All-Star game when the team was on pace for 100-losses especially when I knew that said player was only their because of a "pity" rule. Okajima, Santana, and Bonderman should have made the team without the need for a "Final Vote."

Nonetheless, Bonderman certainly had the numbers to merit a selection yet again. He leads the AL with a .900 winning percentage. He has nine wins in only 15 starts. Most of the pitchers in the AL have 17 starts already. In most years, his numbers would be more than enough to garner a selection. This season has seen so many great pitching performances in the first half that Johan Santana wasn’t even among the five pitchers selected by player ballots despite being the best pitcher in baseball. I think that has a lot to do with stupidity but the fact that it happened at all shows the depth among AL starters.

Here are Bonderman’s stats in the first halves of 2005-07 respectively:

---------------------W/L-—ERA
Bonderman ’05---11-5—--3.99
Bonderman ’06----8-4----3.46
Bonderman ’07----9-1-----3.58

Conventional wisdom would state that the two easiest ways to make the All Star team when you have good enough numbers are when the game is in your city and when your manager is also the manager of the All-Star team. Neither of those situations has helped Bonderman. In ’05, the All-Star game was in Detroit. When a late spot opened up, AL Manager, Terry Francona added Matt Clement to the team making Bonderman one of the only players in MLB history to be left off of the All-Star team with 11 wins before the break.

In 2007, Jim Leyland decided against naming Bonderman to the team despite being his own manager. Bonderman could still be guaranteed a spot if any pitcher goes down since he was the 7th pitcher on the player balloting. Unlike virtually every other year, though, there isn’t a pitcher on the AL roster who is either injured or has decided not to participate. So it looks like that won’t even help Bondo’s cause.

I would guess that the majority of the time, a player in Bonderman’s position in ’05, ‘06 and ’07 makes the team. In ’05, Bondo was trumped by a manager going with his own guy. In ’06, Bondo was done in by the need for KC’s Mark Redman to make the team. In ’07 Bondo was trumped by his own manager going with another player and the unlikely event of no subs needed on the AL roster. Gil Meche making the team for KC was yet another reason why Bondo was left off the AL roster. Bonderman also had the misfortune of going 9-1 in a year when the league is on pace to break the record for most pitchers with 10 wins by the All-Star break in MLB history. In the AL alone there are currently eight pitchers with 10+ wins and there could be 11 by the All-Star break.

Bonderman did get a brief reprieve when Leyland put him on the “Final Vote” ballot. Unfortunately, Leyland also included the only player who may have beaten Bonderman in such a vote; a player dually from Japan and Red Sox nation. Okajima received a tremendous amount of support from Japan which made this vote a no-doubter.

Wins and losses will mean a whole lot more than All-Star appearances when the baseball world looks back on Bonderman’s career but it is frustrating as a fan to see him get passed over even in the most favorable situations. For three years straight, Bondo has put up All-Star worthy numbers and he has zero selections to show for it. That’s why it would have been nice to see Jim Leyland pick Bonderman as one of his two “obligation-free selections” and send Johan Santana to the “Final Vote.” Leyland could’ve stood up for Bonderman when nobody else has. I am guessing that Leyland felt he did the right thing by choosing Santana because Santana was next in line in the player vote. The rule states that the first five pitchers on the player ballots will make the team and beyond that it is up to the manager. It certainly would not have been a stretch for Leyland to choose the 7th player over the 6th player in lieu of the fact that it was his own deserving player and the fact that Leyland has no obligation to choose based on player balloting beyond the 5th spot. By choosing to take Santana strictly because he was next on the player balloting, Leyland took away his own rights as the All-Star game manager. I am sure he doesn’t see it that way but that’s the way it looks to me. I am also guessing that Leyland didn’t want to anger Santana hoping to avoid some sort of grudge that Santana would hold against the Tigers. In 18 career starts against the Tigers, Santana is 11-3 with a 2.64 ERA so avoiding the wrath of Santana seems to be a lost cause anyways. Bondo got screwed again and I’m pissed about it.

Vote for Bondo

VOTE FOR BONDO

The Tigers will have at least five All-Star representatives at the All-Star game in San Francisco next Tuesday. Jeremy Bonderman can make the team if enough fans vote for him in the “Final Vote” balloting. It is going to be difficult for Bonderman to beat out Roy Halladay and it has nothing to do with their respective numbers this season. Baseball fans in general tend to vote for the most popular players. I don’t think there is any doubt that Halladay is more popular than Bonderman at this point in their careers. Bonderman should have no problem beating out the other players in the voting so it comes down to Bondo vs. Doc. It’s too bad this vote can’t be based solely on numbers because it wouldn’t be close…

--------------W/L--ERA--WHIP--K/9--BAA--ERA+
Bonderman---9-1 3.58--1.18--8.2--.247--122
Halladay------9-3 4.27--1.24--5.7--.276--106

Fans can vote as many times as they want until 6pm on Thursday. Voting is incredibly easy. I voted 75 times last night and plan to get in a few more votes before Thursday. Click any of the three giant links to start voting.

VOTE FOR BONDO


Granderson and Sheff were snubbed

All five Tigers that have already made the team were selected by either the fans or the player vote. Jim Leyland did not select any Tigers with what amounted to his two “free” selections. Leyland could have selected Gary Sheffield or Curtis Granderson over Victor Martinez but Leyland stated that he “didn’t feel that would have been right.” IMO, Leyland had every right to take either one of his deserving outfielders. In many measures, their numbers are better than Martinez’s and—even if they are too close to call—Leyland had every right to pick his own guy in the event of a perceived tie. As it turns out, Sheffield wasn’t going to go to the All-Star game anyway but from what I’ve read; Leyland would have picked Martinez regardless.

Here is a comparison of Martinez to both Sheffield and Granderson:

-----------OPS--HR--Runs-RBI-SB-BB-K
Sheffield--.931-18--69---52--11-50-33
Martinez--.927-14--40---63--0--26-36

-------------OPS--HR--2B-3B-Runs-RBI-SB--BB--K
Granderson-.906-11-22-15--58---41--9---26-76
Martinez----.927-14-20--0---40---63--0---26-36

Keep in mind that Granderson doesn’t have near the RBI opportunities as Martinez since he bats from the leadoff spot. Granderson leads off every game without a man in scoring position. That’s 48 at-bats where Martinez has the opportunity to drive in runs that Granderson does not have.

Again, I think as the AL Manager, Leyland had the right to bring his own guy in the event of a toss-up. I don’t see how a Granderson/Sheffield/Martinez can be viewed as anything other than a toss-up. It is possible that Leyland felt bad that Pudge made the team when Martinez is having a much better season. He may have taken the opportunity to make up for that by bringing in Martinez. Similarly though, Sheffield and Granderson were kept out in favor of less deserving outfielders. It’s tough to find three outfielders in the AL that have better numbers than Sheffield or Granderson. Both have better numbers than every reserve OF on the AL roster with the possible exception of Torii Hunter (and that’s even debatable). So it would seem that Leyland could have taken Sheffield or Granderson for the same reason that he chose to take Martinez. Plus, managers almost never select three catchers.

It’ll be interesting to see if Leyland brings Granderson if any of the AL outfielders are unable to attend. I don’t see any reason to not bring Granderson in that situation. Leyland already played the “fairness” game with his initial selections. He doesn’t need to endear himself to anyone else around baseball by bypassing his own deserving players again if a spot opens up.

I don’t have a problem with Leyland picking Johan Santana with his other “free” spot. I’m not sure how Santana wasn’t among the five starting pitchers selected by the player voting. He is the best pitcher in the American League by a mile.

I’m also guessing that Leyland will take Bonderman if any AL pitchers can’t attend. Bonderman was the 7th pitcher among the player vote. Santana was 6th. It only makes sense that Bondo would be the first alternate. Two years ago, Terry Francona stated that any pitching spot that opened would go to his own guy (Matt Clement). Bonderman was deserving of a selection then and that game was in Detroit to boot. It would be nice to see Leyland take the same stance this year with Bonderman. Bonderman should be playing in his second All-Star game this year but it’s possible that he’ll get left out again. Hopefully Tigers fans can continue their strong showing in the All-Star voting by getting Bondo into the game.

And once again…..


VOTE FOR BONDO