There has been a trade rumor circulating for some time now involving Kevin Garnett and the Detroit Pistons. The trade would send KG to the Pistons for Rasheed Wallace and Darko Milicic. Both the Pistons and the Timberwolves deny the trade rumors. The T-wolves recently stated that they would not trade KG under any circumstances. Joe Dumars also stated that he hadn’t discussed that trade with Minnesota. It’s safe to say that this trade won’t happen.
However, that doesn’t mean that we can’t talk about the trade. As much as both teams deny having interest in the trade, there’s no question in my mind that this trade would help both teams get to where they want to go. The T-wolves don’t have enough talent around KG to win the NBA title. Kevin McHale ruined the team by firing Flip Saunders and getting rid of Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell. Minnesota would easily be the second best team in the West this season with a decent shot at reaching the finals had McHale not sabotaged the franchise. Instead, the T-wolves need to build for the future and get something in exchange for KG. By trading KG, the T-wolves would probably go in the tank for the rest of the season and secure a lottery pick for the NBA draft. The T-wolves would be getting Rasheed Wallace, Darko Milicic and what should amount to a lottery pick for KG. The Pistons would likely have to throw in another player (possibly Dale Davis) to make the money work.
It’s obvious to me that the T-wolves would be doing a lot for the future of Minnesota basketball by making this trade. The Pistons side of the deal might seem unnecessary but a little perspective might shed some light on why the Pistons would be foolish to pass up on this trade if the offer ever came to fruition. The Pistons are playing superb basketball right now. Rasheed Wallace is a very good player. He’s unselfish and can play any style of ball on both ends of the court. However, there is no doubt that Kevin Garnett is a better basketball player. Rasheed Wallace is to Kevin Garnett as Paul Pierce is to Michael Jordan. Pierce is a very good player but he’s just not in the same league as MJ. The same can be said for comparing Rasheed to KG. The only thing that ‘Sheed can do better than KG is shoot the three. KG offsets that disadvantage by being a superior mid-range shooter. KG is also better in the post and a slightly better defender as well. So far, I’ve just talked about the skill advantages that KG has over Rasheed. One aspect that nobody seems to talk about is the fact that KG is two years younger. That alone should make this trade a no-brainer. Two years is a long time in the NBA. The Pistons would be an unstoppable force with KG in the lineup. As good as the Pistons are with Rasheed, they would be considerably better with KG and for a longer period of time.
I don’t mean to discount the importance of Darko. The Pistons took Darko over Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Both, and Kurt Hinrich. It would be nice if that pick realized its value. I think Darko could become a very good player. He has skill for a 20 year old big man. The thing about the NBA is that you have to give to get (unless you can work Danny Ainge into the deal). Giving up Darko would be hard but the addition of KG to the Pistons lineup would put the Pistons the odds on favorite to win the NBA title. There isn’t a team in the league that could compete with the Pistons with KG.
There is a lot made of chemistry in the NBA. Joe Dumars likes the Pistons team chemistry and doesn’t want to damage it in any way. I can understand that. Once you get chemistry, you want to bottle it up and never let it go. However, it’s not like the Pistons are perfect. They lost in the NBA finals last year and they came within a Dwyane Wade rib cage of losing to the Heat in the Conference Finals. Even when they won the NBA championship two years ago, they barely got by the Nets in the second round. This isn’t a team that’s good enough to waltz through the playoffs. This team can be improved and all avenues of improvement should be explored. I don’t envy Joe D’s position because he would take the blame if something went wrong but KG is not your everyday player. If you took a poll of NBA players and asked who the best player in the league was, you would probably get 50% to say Tim Duncan and 50% to say KG. He is on a different level than Wallace. I love what Sheed has brought to the team and it would be sad to see him go. But, we have to be realistic here. If you only have to give up one good player to get KG, you have to do it every time. The Pistons would be crazy not to. Thankfully, the Pistons are one of the elite teams in the NBA and will be contenders with or without a trade. Joe D has assembled a brilliant group of basketball players which I am extremely grateful for. I just wanted to put my two cents in that should the opportunity to acquire KG arise and the Pistons only have to give up one impact player, you have to pull the trigger.
Wednesday, December 07, 2005
Monday, December 05, 2005
Leadoff man, anyone?
I have a couple complaints about what the Tigers have done in free agency up until this point. It has been widely known and publicized that the Tigers need to improve their starting pitching and bullpen. What is also widely known and not so-widely publicized is the deplorable lack of efficiency at the top of the order. The Tigers made a play for B.J. Ryan, Billy Wagner, and Kyle Farnsworth. They came up short but they didn’t want to overpay for the second year in a row for a closer (Troy Percival). That’s fine. I’m not bothered by that. The Tigers made a play at Beckett and came up short. They still have a few pitching targets in Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Carl Pavano and possibly Matt Morris and Kevin Milwood. They’re doing what they can and I’m OK with their efforts in the pitching department. However, I am irate that the Tigers haven’t addressed the number one problem that hijacked this team last season; top of the order production. There are/were three excellent leadoff men that were available in free agency or through a fire-sale this off-season. The Tigers should’ve gone above and beyond the next highest offer for all three and take the first one that accepts. Rafael Furcal, Johnny Damon and Juan Pierre are three game-changing leadoff men. The Tigers have a lineup stacked full of undisciplined power-hitters. The one thing that would ignite this offense over any other would be a leadoff hitter that gets on base and has speed. The Tigers dropped the ball big time on this. Everyone wants to talk about upgrading the pitching and the bullpen which is understandable. There isn’t a team in MLB that doesn’t want to upgrade pitching. The Yankees have a $200 million payroll and they constantly bring in more pitching. The Tigers lost last year for many reasons but the most glaring deficiency was the stagnation of the offense on what seemed to be every other night. When you invest that much money in power hitters like Pudge and Mags, you have to make sure that you’ve done everything possible to get your money’s worth. Without excellence from the leadoff position, the Tigers will be spending empty money on the offense.
The Tigers are foolishly trying to spend their money just to get “something”. After coming up short on every available closer’s list, the Tigers tried giving $13.5 million dollars to Bobby Howry. Why reach for your 5th or 6th closer option when you can go all out for a premier leadoff hitter/centerfielder? The Tigers have made it clear that they are willing to spend whatever it takes to make this team a winner. Is there any doubt that Furcal, Damon or Pierre would improve this team by leaps and bounds over what Howry would bring to this team? The Marlins are begging for someone to take Pierre. Aside from giving up Verlander, the Tigers should offer the farm. It has become clear that free agents aren’t going to go out of their way to come to Detroit. The Tigers either need to offer free agents more money or make bold trades. Also, the Tigers have already found out that the only way to sign big name free agent players is to wait until everyone else has signed and then overpay. If they know this already, why don’t they just overpay for someone they really want rather than settling for whoever is left come January? Basically, I’m saying the Tigers should outbid everyone else on someone like Johnny Damon and the do the same for Trevor Hoffman. It comes down to what they’re willing to pay. There is no salary cap in MLB. The Tigers say they’ll spend whatever it takes to put a winning product on the field. Everyone wants to complain about overpaying for Pudge and Mags but what does it matter? There is no cap! They should spend as much money as possible for the players that will help this team. This team is only a couple players from being a viable contender. The Tigers should do whatever it takes to bring in Damon or Pierre, sign Hoffman, and then make a play at Matt Morris. That would make the Tigers a very dangerous team next year. The only thing stopping those things from happening is the money that the Tigers have already said they’re willing to spend. My guess is that the Tigers won’t even consider a centerfielder due to the amount of money it would cost. I guess they weren’t really willing to spend whatever it takes after all. No surprise there. The NHL started back up so Illitch’s façade about “doing whatever it takes” ends. It’s all about the Red Wings, right?
The Tigers are foolishly trying to spend their money just to get “something”. After coming up short on every available closer’s list, the Tigers tried giving $13.5 million dollars to Bobby Howry. Why reach for your 5th or 6th closer option when you can go all out for a premier leadoff hitter/centerfielder? The Tigers have made it clear that they are willing to spend whatever it takes to make this team a winner. Is there any doubt that Furcal, Damon or Pierre would improve this team by leaps and bounds over what Howry would bring to this team? The Marlins are begging for someone to take Pierre. Aside from giving up Verlander, the Tigers should offer the farm. It has become clear that free agents aren’t going to go out of their way to come to Detroit. The Tigers either need to offer free agents more money or make bold trades. Also, the Tigers have already found out that the only way to sign big name free agent players is to wait until everyone else has signed and then overpay. If they know this already, why don’t they just overpay for someone they really want rather than settling for whoever is left come January? Basically, I’m saying the Tigers should outbid everyone else on someone like Johnny Damon and the do the same for Trevor Hoffman. It comes down to what they’re willing to pay. There is no salary cap in MLB. The Tigers say they’ll spend whatever it takes to put a winning product on the field. Everyone wants to complain about overpaying for Pudge and Mags but what does it matter? There is no cap! They should spend as much money as possible for the players that will help this team. This team is only a couple players from being a viable contender. The Tigers should do whatever it takes to bring in Damon or Pierre, sign Hoffman, and then make a play at Matt Morris. That would make the Tigers a very dangerous team next year. The only thing stopping those things from happening is the money that the Tigers have already said they’re willing to spend. My guess is that the Tigers won’t even consider a centerfielder due to the amount of money it would cost. I guess they weren’t really willing to spend whatever it takes after all. No surprise there. The NHL started back up so Illitch’s façade about “doing whatever it takes” ends. It’s all about the Red Wings, right?
Tigers did well with Beckett talks
When the Florida Marlins decided that they were going to have a fire-sale, I was wide-eyed at the possibilities for the Detroit Tigers. The Marlins may have underachieved as a team last year but no organization in MLB can match the talent of Florida’s roster. Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Carlos Delgado, Josh Beckett, Juan Pierre, Luis Castillo, Paul LoDuca and A.J. Burnett are just some of the players that would immediately help a MLB franchise. When I read that the Marlins were actively trying to trade Beckett, I could only hope that the Tigers would try to get involved. Rumors circulated that the Rangers and Red Sox were in discussions to acquire Beckett. Then, the trade with Boston was announced and I was not happy. The Tigers had a chance to bring in a top of the rotation, strikeout pitcher who is only 25 years old. Throw in the fact that he would probably come at a discounted price and you have a dream scenario. I was extremely annoyed that the Tigers seemingly blew a chance at bringing in a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.
Then I found out that Detroit had tried hard to get Beckett from Florida. It turns out the Marlins asked for Justin Verlander and Curtis Granderson in return for Beckett and Mike Lowell and his Chris Dudley-esque contract. I put myself in Dave Dombrowski’s shoes and tried to rationalize the trade one way or the other. It’s a very difficult decision when you consider all of the factors. Giving up Granderson doesn’t necessarily concern me all that much especially when the Tigers could easily find a star centerfielder in this year’s free agent market. Granderson could turn into a decent major leaguer but I’m not convinced that he’s a superstar or worth nixing a Beckett deal. Justin Verlander has been destroying the Minor Leagues. He has as much “buzz” as any pitching prospect in recent memory. By all accounts, he’s going to be a dominating pitcher in Detroit for a long time. Having said that, I’ll quickly take a look at the pros and cons and decide if I think Dave Dombrowski made the right decision.
Pros:
-Josh Beckett is an established star already in MLB having won a WS ring. He would immediately make Detroit’s rotation one of the best in the AL with Jeremy Bonderman.
-Verlander hasn’t accomplished anything in the majors yet. It remains to be seen what he can do.
-Beckett is only 25 years old
-The Tigers would not have to give up any players that have had much of an impact in the major leagues. Basically, the Tigers would be trading speculation for guaranteed.
- The Tigers have Nook Logan and Cameron Maybin already in the organization which would minimize the loss of Granderson
-Mike Lowell could bring more offensive consistency to third base.
Cons:
-Beckett has been injury prone
-Verlander is younger than Beckett
-Lowell’s contract is ridiculous. The Tigers can’t afford to bring on another bloated contract to go along with Pudge and Mags.
- Beckett will cost considerably more than Verlander in the near future.
-Granderson could be the centerfielder that the Tigers have been looking for over the last decade.
- It is possible that Verlander could be an even better pitcher than Beckett
-Verlander probably has an affinity for the organization while Beckett would probably be miserable at the thought of coming to Detroit.
Each of the pros and cons has in impact in the decision but some weigh more heavily than others. For instance, Beckett’s injury history and potential salary stand out. Also, since it’s a possibility that Verlander and Beckett are equal in terms of pitching ability, the Tigers would then be giving up Granderson who could end up being very good. I’m not saying that I would do this trade if it was just Verlander for Beckett and Lowell but I would definitely give it more consideration. I just think that the cons of making this trade outweigh the pros. Verlander wants to be in Detroit. He’s gone through the farm system. This is the team that drafted him. Just look at how much pride Jeremy Bonderman takes in his performance as a Tiger. Beckett most likely would not want to be in Detroit and he’d probably try to take the first available train out of town. There are too many things that could go wrong with this trade to make it worthwhile. I applaud the Tigers for exploring the possibility but Dave Dombrowski, in my opinion, made the correct decision.
Then I found out that Detroit had tried hard to get Beckett from Florida. It turns out the Marlins asked for Justin Verlander and Curtis Granderson in return for Beckett and Mike Lowell and his Chris Dudley-esque contract. I put myself in Dave Dombrowski’s shoes and tried to rationalize the trade one way or the other. It’s a very difficult decision when you consider all of the factors. Giving up Granderson doesn’t necessarily concern me all that much especially when the Tigers could easily find a star centerfielder in this year’s free agent market. Granderson could turn into a decent major leaguer but I’m not convinced that he’s a superstar or worth nixing a Beckett deal. Justin Verlander has been destroying the Minor Leagues. He has as much “buzz” as any pitching prospect in recent memory. By all accounts, he’s going to be a dominating pitcher in Detroit for a long time. Having said that, I’ll quickly take a look at the pros and cons and decide if I think Dave Dombrowski made the right decision.
Pros:
-Josh Beckett is an established star already in MLB having won a WS ring. He would immediately make Detroit’s rotation one of the best in the AL with Jeremy Bonderman.
-Verlander hasn’t accomplished anything in the majors yet. It remains to be seen what he can do.
-Beckett is only 25 years old
-The Tigers would not have to give up any players that have had much of an impact in the major leagues. Basically, the Tigers would be trading speculation for guaranteed.
- The Tigers have Nook Logan and Cameron Maybin already in the organization which would minimize the loss of Granderson
-Mike Lowell could bring more offensive consistency to third base.
Cons:
-Beckett has been injury prone
-Verlander is younger than Beckett
-Lowell’s contract is ridiculous. The Tigers can’t afford to bring on another bloated contract to go along with Pudge and Mags.
- Beckett will cost considerably more than Verlander in the near future.
-Granderson could be the centerfielder that the Tigers have been looking for over the last decade.
- It is possible that Verlander could be an even better pitcher than Beckett
-Verlander probably has an affinity for the organization while Beckett would probably be miserable at the thought of coming to Detroit.
Each of the pros and cons has in impact in the decision but some weigh more heavily than others. For instance, Beckett’s injury history and potential salary stand out. Also, since it’s a possibility that Verlander and Beckett are equal in terms of pitching ability, the Tigers would then be giving up Granderson who could end up being very good. I’m not saying that I would do this trade if it was just Verlander for Beckett and Lowell but I would definitely give it more consideration. I just think that the cons of making this trade outweigh the pros. Verlander wants to be in Detroit. He’s gone through the farm system. This is the team that drafted him. Just look at how much pride Jeremy Bonderman takes in his performance as a Tiger. Beckett most likely would not want to be in Detroit and he’d probably try to take the first available train out of town. There are too many things that could go wrong with this trade to make it worthwhile. I applaud the Tigers for exploring the possibility but Dave Dombrowski, in my opinion, made the correct decision.
NFL Draft Outlook week 14
The Lions continued their strong march to a top five draft pick with a much-needed unimpressive performance against the Vikings. With the Lions doing their part, the rest of the league also chipped in to improve the Lions draft position. Wins by Arizona, Baltimore, and Miami brought the Lions into a six-way tie for the sixth worst record in the NFL. Unfortunately, the Lions have beaten three of the five teams that they’re tied with at 4-8 which means they will be the odd team out if the standings don’t change. That makes losing out that much more important. Next week is probably the biggest game of the season for the Lions. If they can muster up enough incompetence to lose to Green Bay, the rest of the schedules sets up nicely for a losing streak. If the Lions can drop next week’s game in Lambeau Field, that will set up a colossal battle between the Lions and New Orleans Saints on Christmas Eve to see who will get the first shot at Vince Young.
1). Houston 1-11
The Texans are a sure bet to finish with a higher draft pick than the Lions. However, the Texans are actually an ally for the Lions from here on out. First, the Texans surely won’t draft Matt Leinart or Vince Young since David Carr is still their franchise quarterback. Second, the Texans are going to play a big part in determining how good of a pick the Lions get. Houston already did the Lions a huge favor by losing to Baltimore this week. They can continue being an ally by losing their next two games to Tennessee and Arizona. Since Houston has a pretty good lock on the first pick, Lions fans need to root for the Texans to lose those two games. The Lions could make a big jump into the top five if Houston can get the job done.
2). NY Jets 2-10
The Jets are also an ally to the Lions. Much like the Texans, the Jets likely won’t invest a top five pick in a quarterback with Chad Pennington as their number one quarterback. Also, the Jets play Oakland, Miami and Buffalo who are all tied with the Lions at 4-7. The ideal situation for the Lions would be for the Jets to drop all three of those games.
3). San Francisco 2-10
San Francisco probably won’t play much of a factor in determining the Lions draft pick. They’re two full games behind the Lions and I doubt SF will even get two more victories the rest of the season. The Niners did the Lions a great service by losing to Arizona this week. San Francisco doesn’t play any teams that are battling for a top pick the rest of the season. They’re pretty much in the clubhouse with a guaranteed top three pick.
4). Green Bay 2-10
The Packers drafted Aaron Rodgers last year which will probably preclude them from taking a quarterback with their first round pick. Despite that, I’m still confident that the Packers can finish ahead of the Lions in the standings. They should beat the Lions in Lambeau field. I also think the Packers could beat the Bears at home and they get to play the Ravens. I suppose it doesn’t matter if Green Bay finishes with a better pick than Detroit but it would be nice for the Lions to finish as high up the board as possible. Also, the Packers can help the Lions tremendously by beating Detroit this week.
5). New Orleans 3-9
The Lions will play their biggest game of the season on Saturday, December 24. This game will be for all the marbles. If the Lions can pull out the loss against the Saints, they should finish with a top five pick in the draft and be in excellent position to draft Leinart or Young. New Orleans will likely lose the rest of its games so this game is really the only chance that the Lions have of pulling even with New Orleans. Aaron Brooks certainly will not keep the Saints from taking a quarterback. If the Saints can somehow get inspired as they usually do at the end of a lost season, they might be able to pull of an upset against Carolina, Atlanta, or Tampa Bay but that’s incredibly unlikely.
6). Tennessee 3-9
Tennessee is an interesting team when it comes to forecasting their needs come draft time. They have Steve McNair and Billy Volek and they also have Chris Brown and Travis Henry. It seems like drafting Leinart, Young, or Bush would create a logjam at running back or quarterback. The Titans still play Houston and Miami. Hopefully they can win both but the Titans are a rare team on this list that the Lions don’t hold the tiebreaker over. It would be nice to see the Titans win two more games but one could be enough to force a tie.
7) Cleveland 4-8
For about two hours, I thought Cleveland would pull of the upset over Jacksonville. That would’ve been a huge lift for the Lions since Detroit holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland. Not only did Cleveland blow their lead, but they also lost Braylon Edwards for an extended period of time. Cleveland still has two possible wins against Baltimore and Oakland. The idea situation would be for Cleveland to beat Oakland and lost to Baltimore.
8). Baltimore 4-8
Baltimore is Detroit’s worst nightmare. Not only do the Ravens own the head to head tiebreaker over Detroit, they also need a new quarterback just as bad as the Lions. The Ravens would love to take Matt Leinart. The Ravens didn’t help themselves by pulling off a last second win against the Texans this week. That victory could go a long way in pushing Detroit into the top five. With games against Green Bay and Cleveland, the Ravens might just have enough left in the tank to beat out the Lions in the standings.
9). Arizona 4-8
If Houston can make like San Francisco and lay down for the Cardinals, the Lions could be in the clear. The Cardinals have been playing well as of late and should be able to beat Houston. That would put the Cardinals at 5-11 which could be enough to beat out Detroit in the standings.
10). Oakland 4-8
J-E-T-S!!!! The Jets get to do their part in bringing a quarterback to Detroit via the 2006 draft. The Raiders should easily beat the Jets and possibly beat Cleveland. That would give Oakland a minimum of a 5-11 record. The Raiders are also good enough to upset a better team so the Lions should be in the clear in terms of the Raiders.
11) Buffalo 4-8
J-E-T-S!!!! I have faith that the Bills will beat the Jets on the last day of the season. They should also beat Miami at home next week. The Bills should easily beat the Lions in the standings.
12). Detroit 4-8
Like I mentioned above, the New Orleans game is going to be huge. It really could be the most important Lions game of the last five years. A win over New Orleans would put the Lions in an ugly situation with a plethora of other teams. A loss to the Saints could really separate the Lions from the pack and firmly entrench them into the top five. In the back of my mind, I know the Lions will do something ridiculous like beat Pittsburgh on the last game of the season or win at Lambeau Field.
Even if the Lions can’t finish high enough to draft Leinart or Young, there are still a few extremely talented players that would immediately help the Lions. Most of these players won’t be available outside of the top seven so it’s imperative for the Lions to win no more than one of their remaining games. Here is the list of players the Lions would be looking at if they can sneak into the top five.
1). Matt Leinart QB USC
NFL Equivalent: Carson Palmer
2). Vince Young QB Texas
NFL Equivalent: Michael Vick
3). D’Brickashaw Ferguson OT Virginia
NFL Equivalent: Johnathan Ogden
4). A.J. Hawk LB Ohio St.
NFL Equivalent: Brian Urlacher
5). Reggie Bush RB USC
NFL Equivalent: nobody
6). Mathias Kiwanuka DE Boston College
NFL Equivalent: Simeon Rice
7). JimmyWilliams DB Virginia Tech
NFL Equivalent: Shawn Springs
After each week, I’ll take a look at where the Lions are in the standings and how things are looking for a top five pick. With only four weeks to go, the Lions control their own destiny. The Lions would be pretty much guaranteed a top five pick if they can lose out. Just one win could send the Lions out of the top ten. Keep your fingers crossed.
1). Houston 1-11
The Texans are a sure bet to finish with a higher draft pick than the Lions. However, the Texans are actually an ally for the Lions from here on out. First, the Texans surely won’t draft Matt Leinart or Vince Young since David Carr is still their franchise quarterback. Second, the Texans are going to play a big part in determining how good of a pick the Lions get. Houston already did the Lions a huge favor by losing to Baltimore this week. They can continue being an ally by losing their next two games to Tennessee and Arizona. Since Houston has a pretty good lock on the first pick, Lions fans need to root for the Texans to lose those two games. The Lions could make a big jump into the top five if Houston can get the job done.
2). NY Jets 2-10
The Jets are also an ally to the Lions. Much like the Texans, the Jets likely won’t invest a top five pick in a quarterback with Chad Pennington as their number one quarterback. Also, the Jets play Oakland, Miami and Buffalo who are all tied with the Lions at 4-7. The ideal situation for the Lions would be for the Jets to drop all three of those games.
3). San Francisco 2-10
San Francisco probably won’t play much of a factor in determining the Lions draft pick. They’re two full games behind the Lions and I doubt SF will even get two more victories the rest of the season. The Niners did the Lions a great service by losing to Arizona this week. San Francisco doesn’t play any teams that are battling for a top pick the rest of the season. They’re pretty much in the clubhouse with a guaranteed top three pick.
4). Green Bay 2-10
The Packers drafted Aaron Rodgers last year which will probably preclude them from taking a quarterback with their first round pick. Despite that, I’m still confident that the Packers can finish ahead of the Lions in the standings. They should beat the Lions in Lambeau field. I also think the Packers could beat the Bears at home and they get to play the Ravens. I suppose it doesn’t matter if Green Bay finishes with a better pick than Detroit but it would be nice for the Lions to finish as high up the board as possible. Also, the Packers can help the Lions tremendously by beating Detroit this week.
5). New Orleans 3-9
The Lions will play their biggest game of the season on Saturday, December 24. This game will be for all the marbles. If the Lions can pull out the loss against the Saints, they should finish with a top five pick in the draft and be in excellent position to draft Leinart or Young. New Orleans will likely lose the rest of its games so this game is really the only chance that the Lions have of pulling even with New Orleans. Aaron Brooks certainly will not keep the Saints from taking a quarterback. If the Saints can somehow get inspired as they usually do at the end of a lost season, they might be able to pull of an upset against Carolina, Atlanta, or Tampa Bay but that’s incredibly unlikely.
6). Tennessee 3-9
Tennessee is an interesting team when it comes to forecasting their needs come draft time. They have Steve McNair and Billy Volek and they also have Chris Brown and Travis Henry. It seems like drafting Leinart, Young, or Bush would create a logjam at running back or quarterback. The Titans still play Houston and Miami. Hopefully they can win both but the Titans are a rare team on this list that the Lions don’t hold the tiebreaker over. It would be nice to see the Titans win two more games but one could be enough to force a tie.
7) Cleveland 4-8
For about two hours, I thought Cleveland would pull of the upset over Jacksonville. That would’ve been a huge lift for the Lions since Detroit holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland. Not only did Cleveland blow their lead, but they also lost Braylon Edwards for an extended period of time. Cleveland still has two possible wins against Baltimore and Oakland. The idea situation would be for Cleveland to beat Oakland and lost to Baltimore.
8). Baltimore 4-8
Baltimore is Detroit’s worst nightmare. Not only do the Ravens own the head to head tiebreaker over Detroit, they also need a new quarterback just as bad as the Lions. The Ravens would love to take Matt Leinart. The Ravens didn’t help themselves by pulling off a last second win against the Texans this week. That victory could go a long way in pushing Detroit into the top five. With games against Green Bay and Cleveland, the Ravens might just have enough left in the tank to beat out the Lions in the standings.
9). Arizona 4-8
If Houston can make like San Francisco and lay down for the Cardinals, the Lions could be in the clear. The Cardinals have been playing well as of late and should be able to beat Houston. That would put the Cardinals at 5-11 which could be enough to beat out Detroit in the standings.
10). Oakland 4-8
J-E-T-S!!!! The Jets get to do their part in bringing a quarterback to Detroit via the 2006 draft. The Raiders should easily beat the Jets and possibly beat Cleveland. That would give Oakland a minimum of a 5-11 record. The Raiders are also good enough to upset a better team so the Lions should be in the clear in terms of the Raiders.
11) Buffalo 4-8
J-E-T-S!!!! I have faith that the Bills will beat the Jets on the last day of the season. They should also beat Miami at home next week. The Bills should easily beat the Lions in the standings.
12). Detroit 4-8
Like I mentioned above, the New Orleans game is going to be huge. It really could be the most important Lions game of the last five years. A win over New Orleans would put the Lions in an ugly situation with a plethora of other teams. A loss to the Saints could really separate the Lions from the pack and firmly entrench them into the top five. In the back of my mind, I know the Lions will do something ridiculous like beat Pittsburgh on the last game of the season or win at Lambeau Field.
Even if the Lions can’t finish high enough to draft Leinart or Young, there are still a few extremely talented players that would immediately help the Lions. Most of these players won’t be available outside of the top seven so it’s imperative for the Lions to win no more than one of their remaining games. Here is the list of players the Lions would be looking at if they can sneak into the top five.
1). Matt Leinart QB USC
NFL Equivalent: Carson Palmer
2). Vince Young QB Texas
NFL Equivalent: Michael Vick
3). D’Brickashaw Ferguson OT Virginia
NFL Equivalent: Johnathan Ogden
4). A.J. Hawk LB Ohio St.
NFL Equivalent: Brian Urlacher
5). Reggie Bush RB USC
NFL Equivalent: nobody
6). Mathias Kiwanuka DE Boston College
NFL Equivalent: Simeon Rice
7). JimmyWilliams DB Virginia Tech
NFL Equivalent: Shawn Springs
After each week, I’ll take a look at where the Lions are in the standings and how things are looking for a top five pick. With only four weeks to go, the Lions control their own destiny. The Lions would be pretty much guaranteed a top five pick if they can lose out. Just one win could send the Lions out of the top ten. Keep your fingers crossed.
Friday, December 02, 2005
NFL Week 13 picks
MIA -4.5 buf
I can’t pick Miami games for the life of me. I lost another one last week to bring my record to 3-7 on the season. It’s safe to say that I don’t have a clue when picking a Dolphin game. They shouldn’t beat Buffalo by more than four points no matter where the game is played. The Bills, on the other hand, have been abysmal on the road this year. The Dolphins looked good against Oakland last week (which apparently isn’t saying much) and I’m not sure if it’s because Oakland is terrible or if Nick Saban lit a fire under Miami’s rear-ends. On a different note, can any news source in the world match ESPN’s ability to make the news? Saban said he was more focused on getting the Dolphins better rather than being concerned with their record. What a novel concept for a team out of the playoff race looking towards next year. Yet, ESPN spent hours covering the comments as if they were taken straight from the Devil’s mouth. As for my pick, Buffalo can’t score on the road. Miami seemed to get things going last week. I’ll take Miami.
PIT -3.5 cin
If I judge this game on how each team has performed against the Colts year, then I’d have to take Cincinnati. These two teams played at Cincy earlier this year with Cincy having all of the momentum. Pittsburgh came out and busted the Bengals in the mouth. Pittsburgh will be looking to make amends for its performance in Indy last week. But, it is not crazy to think the Bengals could win this game. Throw in the fact that Big Ben is hurt and you don’t have to think too hard to imagine the Bengals covering the spread. I’ll take Cincinnati.
BAL -8.5 hou
If I took Baltimore with a line this big, I would be downing jars of Pepto-Bismal just to get to bed on Saturday night. I know the Texans are bad but 8.5 points? That seems a little bit over the top to me. As for Lions fans, we really want Baltimore to win this game. I’ll take Houston to keep it close.
IND -15 ten
This game definitely requires a leap of faith. It’s a leap that I’m willing to take. I’ll go with the Indianapolis to dominate Tennessee at home. As for the Colts and going undefeated, I think it’s going to happen. Then again, I thought Minnesota was going to do it in 1998. The Colts have three tough games left in; Jacksonville, San Diego and Seattle. Indy should win all of those games with the toughest one (SD) being at home. There has been a lot of discussion about whether Tony Dungy should play his starters in the final game of the season against Arizona if the Colts are 15-0. This is a no-brainer to me. In my opinion, going undefeated in the regular season is very, very close to winning the Super Bowl. In most cases, nobody cares how a team does in the regular season but no team has ever gone 16-0 in the NFL regular season. The Colts would be remembered by history many times over in the same manner that the ’72 Dolphins are. If you’re that close to NFL immortality, you have to take the chance even if it means risking a unnecessary injury. Plus, the Colts should be able to dominate the Cardinals in the first half leaving the second half to the second-stringers.
jax -3 CLE
It’s been a fad lately to pick against the Jags to make the playoffs. I don’t know where this started but clearly whoever started it didn’t look at their remaining schedule. The Jags get to beat up on Cleveland, San Francisco, Houston and Tennessee. The Jags should win all four games giving them a 12-4 record. Even if they lose one game, they’ll be at 11-5. There is no doubt that Jacksonville is going to the playoffs. It's unfortuante that strength of schedule has played such an important role in the NFL this year. In my opinion, the six best teams in the AFC are Indy, Denver, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Kansas City. However, NewEngland will get in because they play in the worst division in football and Jacksonville will get in because there schedule is the inverse of KC and SD's. At any rate, the Jags should pound Cleveland this week. I’ll take Jacksonville to cover.
NYG -3 dal
Normally I would go with Dallas without hesitation. The problem I have with picking Dallas is that the Giants have been so good at home this year and Drew Bledsoe is a ticking time bomb on the road. This game should be relatively close but I think the Giants will get the running game going and take care of business in one of the most important games in the NFC this year.
CHI -7 gb
I don’t know where this line came from. Out of GB’s nine losses, two have come by more than seven points. Brett Favre has kept the Pack in games all year. Just as a side-note, Green Bay, despite only being 2-9, has outscored its opponents. Has that ever happened before? Chicago’s defense is great but the offense has only scored more than 20 points one time in the last seven weeks and only twice all season. Chicago might win by more than seven but the odds are against it. I’ll take Favre to be a pain in Chicago’s side.
min -2 DET
So, Dre Bly and Jeff Garcia think that Steve Mariucci would still be around if Garcia hadn’t broken his leg? That’s like saying that Bob Huggins would still be coaching the Cincinnati Bearcats if nobody ever invented beer. Garcia’s injury had minimal impact on the season. The problem with the Lions offense was with Steve Mariucci and his partner in crime, Ted Tollner’s pre-historic offense. I feel sorry for Bly that he left St. Louis to live in obscurity with the Lions but that doesn’t give him the license to make ridiculous statements. Garcia obviously loves himself at the quarterback position. However, anyone who has been paying attention realizes that Garcia has brought a big pile of nothing to this team. I’ll take Minnesota to keep winning.
CAR -3 atl
Carolina is at home which is good news considering what happened to them the last two weeks on the road. The Panthers were embarrassed by the Bears in Soldier field two weeks ago and barely escaped with a win at Buffalo. Just three weeks ago Carolina was the darling of the NFC. It’s amazing how fast a two game road trip can change everything. Here’s the deal with Atlanta, they’ve played 11 games this year and they’ve only lost ONE game all season by more than three points. I could take this one of two ways; a). they’re due for a loss of more than three points or b). it’s not a fluke but a trend. Unfortunately for me, I think it’s both. This game could go either way but I’ll take Atlanta because they have Vick, they play close games, and they might actually win the game.
tb -3 NO
New Orleans could very well pull an upset in this game. Crazier things have happened. However, this line is ridiculous. Tampa Bay should (and I emphasize “should”) put the hammer to New Orleans with its suffocating defense. Chris Simms has been up and down but he should be steady enough to not screw up this game for Tampa Bay. I’ll take Tampa Bay to win by 3.1 points.
ari -3 SF
This is another line that is surprising. These two teams have already played once and Arizona won by 17 points. I thought that would happen then and I think something similar will happen now. In fact, San Francisco has been at least a nine point underdog in every game since the last time these two teams played. Arizona was favored by 2.5 when they played on October 2. Apparently that 17 point blowout didn’t register with Vegas. Arizona has a fairly potent offense. Kurt Warner has been putting up big time numbers lately with one of the better receiving corps in the NFL. San Francisco is just terrible. I’ll take Arizona to take advantage of this rare occasion to dominate a team.
was -3 STL
I still have nightmares about picking Washington -3 on the road against the Giants earlier in the year. I am very confident that the Rams are nothing close to the Giants so hopefully there won’t be a repeat. This is a toss-up game with both teams being extremely unpredictable throughout the season. The wildcard in this game might be Rams rookie QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. All he did was lead the Rams to victory after falling behind by 21 points. He also threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Complicating matters is the fact that I don’t even know if Fitzpatrick is the Rams starter. I can see the Rams throwing Jamie Martin back in the mix for no good reason. The Rams are just too good on offense to get blown out and the Redskins debacle against the Giants is still weighing heavily on my mind almost two months later. I’ll take St. Louis.
NE -10 nyj
The Patriots are definitely ten points better than the Jets. The question is whether or not they care to be ten points better. The Pats seem to be content on doing just enough to beat teams. They aren’t dropping the hammer like they used to. It seems like they’re in “rope a dope” mode just to get through the regular and get everyone healthy for the playoffs. On the other side, the Jets haven’t lost by less than ten points to any team on the road this year. They’ve lost by; 20, 10, 10, 13, 27 and 27. It would be only fitting if I went with the trend by taking New England only to have the Jets show up on the road for the first time all year. I’m going to risk and take New England.
den -1.5 KC
I was on the Kansas City bandwagon to start the season. This team has players all over the field. They have good units on offense, defense and special teams. Then, something happened. The Chiefs were dominated by the Buffalo Bills. Nothing spells disaster more accurately than a drubbing by the Bills. I still have that nasty taste in my mouth. Buffalo was a 2.5 favorite in that game which was ridiculous. The Chiefs should’ve been favored by at least 4 points. They should’ve blown on the Bills. I really think I’ve developed some sort of Post Traumatic Chiefs Disorder (PTCD) after that Bills game. Then last week came. With the Bills game fresh on my mind, I thought for sure that the Chiefs would get tested and possibly beaten by the Patriots. Instead, they put together one of the more impressive showings by any team in the league this year. Where was that in Buffalo? This is exactly what I was talking about in my NFL Road Rage post. I’ll take the Chiefs in an attempt to face my PTCD head on. I respect Dr. Leo Marvin and all but no “Baby Steps” for me.
SD -10.5 oak
The Chargers will be 9-4 after victories in the next two weeks. At that time, they’ll have three huge games left to make the playoffs; at Indianapolis, at Kansas City and Denver. The Chargers have to win at least one of those games and they’ll probably have to win two. I just don’t see it happening. The Chargers are clearly one of the better teams in the NFL but I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs. What a bummer. Anyhow, Oakland is a disaster. They were dominated by Miami (yes, Miami) in Oakland last week. My first inclination is that this line is too big. But, who do the Raiders actually have on defense? Warren Sapp and Charles Woodson are out for the season. That’s not good against the Chargers. I’ll take San Diego.
sea -3.5 PHI
Seattle is funky. The one thing they’ve done consistently this year is win. There has been nothing consistent about how much they’ve won by. They’ve won four games by three points or less and they’ve won four games by 14 points or more. I still have a lot of respect for the Eagles’ defense. They have a lot of veterans that are still playing hard despite being out of the playoff race for the first time in years. The difference in this game should be Seattle’s aggressive defense against former Lion great, Mike McMahon. I’ll take Seattle to cover.
Coin Flip’s picks
buf
PIT
BAL
IND
CLE
NYG
CHI
min
atl
NO
SF
was
NE
den
SD
Sea
My picks
MIA
cin
hou
IND
jax
NYG
gb
min
atl
tb
ari
STL
NE
KC
SD
sea
Coin Flip Challenge Standings:
Jake --------75-80-5
Coin Flip—--63-92-5
I can’t pick Miami games for the life of me. I lost another one last week to bring my record to 3-7 on the season. It’s safe to say that I don’t have a clue when picking a Dolphin game. They shouldn’t beat Buffalo by more than four points no matter where the game is played. The Bills, on the other hand, have been abysmal on the road this year. The Dolphins looked good against Oakland last week (which apparently isn’t saying much) and I’m not sure if it’s because Oakland is terrible or if Nick Saban lit a fire under Miami’s rear-ends. On a different note, can any news source in the world match ESPN’s ability to make the news? Saban said he was more focused on getting the Dolphins better rather than being concerned with their record. What a novel concept for a team out of the playoff race looking towards next year. Yet, ESPN spent hours covering the comments as if they were taken straight from the Devil’s mouth. As for my pick, Buffalo can’t score on the road. Miami seemed to get things going last week. I’ll take Miami.
PIT -3.5 cin
If I judge this game on how each team has performed against the Colts year, then I’d have to take Cincinnati. These two teams played at Cincy earlier this year with Cincy having all of the momentum. Pittsburgh came out and busted the Bengals in the mouth. Pittsburgh will be looking to make amends for its performance in Indy last week. But, it is not crazy to think the Bengals could win this game. Throw in the fact that Big Ben is hurt and you don’t have to think too hard to imagine the Bengals covering the spread. I’ll take Cincinnati.
BAL -8.5 hou
If I took Baltimore with a line this big, I would be downing jars of Pepto-Bismal just to get to bed on Saturday night. I know the Texans are bad but 8.5 points? That seems a little bit over the top to me. As for Lions fans, we really want Baltimore to win this game. I’ll take Houston to keep it close.
IND -15 ten
This game definitely requires a leap of faith. It’s a leap that I’m willing to take. I’ll go with the Indianapolis to dominate Tennessee at home. As for the Colts and going undefeated, I think it’s going to happen. Then again, I thought Minnesota was going to do it in 1998. The Colts have three tough games left in; Jacksonville, San Diego and Seattle. Indy should win all of those games with the toughest one (SD) being at home. There has been a lot of discussion about whether Tony Dungy should play his starters in the final game of the season against Arizona if the Colts are 15-0. This is a no-brainer to me. In my opinion, going undefeated in the regular season is very, very close to winning the Super Bowl. In most cases, nobody cares how a team does in the regular season but no team has ever gone 16-0 in the NFL regular season. The Colts would be remembered by history many times over in the same manner that the ’72 Dolphins are. If you’re that close to NFL immortality, you have to take the chance even if it means risking a unnecessary injury. Plus, the Colts should be able to dominate the Cardinals in the first half leaving the second half to the second-stringers.
jax -3 CLE
It’s been a fad lately to pick against the Jags to make the playoffs. I don’t know where this started but clearly whoever started it didn’t look at their remaining schedule. The Jags get to beat up on Cleveland, San Francisco, Houston and Tennessee. The Jags should win all four games giving them a 12-4 record. Even if they lose one game, they’ll be at 11-5. There is no doubt that Jacksonville is going to the playoffs. It's unfortuante that strength of schedule has played such an important role in the NFL this year. In my opinion, the six best teams in the AFC are Indy, Denver, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Kansas City. However, NewEngland will get in because they play in the worst division in football and Jacksonville will get in because there schedule is the inverse of KC and SD's. At any rate, the Jags should pound Cleveland this week. I’ll take Jacksonville to cover.
NYG -3 dal
Normally I would go with Dallas without hesitation. The problem I have with picking Dallas is that the Giants have been so good at home this year and Drew Bledsoe is a ticking time bomb on the road. This game should be relatively close but I think the Giants will get the running game going and take care of business in one of the most important games in the NFC this year.
CHI -7 gb
I don’t know where this line came from. Out of GB’s nine losses, two have come by more than seven points. Brett Favre has kept the Pack in games all year. Just as a side-note, Green Bay, despite only being 2-9, has outscored its opponents. Has that ever happened before? Chicago’s defense is great but the offense has only scored more than 20 points one time in the last seven weeks and only twice all season. Chicago might win by more than seven but the odds are against it. I’ll take Favre to be a pain in Chicago’s side.
min -2 DET
So, Dre Bly and Jeff Garcia think that Steve Mariucci would still be around if Garcia hadn’t broken his leg? That’s like saying that Bob Huggins would still be coaching the Cincinnati Bearcats if nobody ever invented beer. Garcia’s injury had minimal impact on the season. The problem with the Lions offense was with Steve Mariucci and his partner in crime, Ted Tollner’s pre-historic offense. I feel sorry for Bly that he left St. Louis to live in obscurity with the Lions but that doesn’t give him the license to make ridiculous statements. Garcia obviously loves himself at the quarterback position. However, anyone who has been paying attention realizes that Garcia has brought a big pile of nothing to this team. I’ll take Minnesota to keep winning.
CAR -3 atl
Carolina is at home which is good news considering what happened to them the last two weeks on the road. The Panthers were embarrassed by the Bears in Soldier field two weeks ago and barely escaped with a win at Buffalo. Just three weeks ago Carolina was the darling of the NFC. It’s amazing how fast a two game road trip can change everything. Here’s the deal with Atlanta, they’ve played 11 games this year and they’ve only lost ONE game all season by more than three points. I could take this one of two ways; a). they’re due for a loss of more than three points or b). it’s not a fluke but a trend. Unfortunately for me, I think it’s both. This game could go either way but I’ll take Atlanta because they have Vick, they play close games, and they might actually win the game.
tb -3 NO
New Orleans could very well pull an upset in this game. Crazier things have happened. However, this line is ridiculous. Tampa Bay should (and I emphasize “should”) put the hammer to New Orleans with its suffocating defense. Chris Simms has been up and down but he should be steady enough to not screw up this game for Tampa Bay. I’ll take Tampa Bay to win by 3.1 points.
ari -3 SF
This is another line that is surprising. These two teams have already played once and Arizona won by 17 points. I thought that would happen then and I think something similar will happen now. In fact, San Francisco has been at least a nine point underdog in every game since the last time these two teams played. Arizona was favored by 2.5 when they played on October 2. Apparently that 17 point blowout didn’t register with Vegas. Arizona has a fairly potent offense. Kurt Warner has been putting up big time numbers lately with one of the better receiving corps in the NFL. San Francisco is just terrible. I’ll take Arizona to take advantage of this rare occasion to dominate a team.
was -3 STL
I still have nightmares about picking Washington -3 on the road against the Giants earlier in the year. I am very confident that the Rams are nothing close to the Giants so hopefully there won’t be a repeat. This is a toss-up game with both teams being extremely unpredictable throughout the season. The wildcard in this game might be Rams rookie QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. All he did was lead the Rams to victory after falling behind by 21 points. He also threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Complicating matters is the fact that I don’t even know if Fitzpatrick is the Rams starter. I can see the Rams throwing Jamie Martin back in the mix for no good reason. The Rams are just too good on offense to get blown out and the Redskins debacle against the Giants is still weighing heavily on my mind almost two months later. I’ll take St. Louis.
NE -10 nyj
The Patriots are definitely ten points better than the Jets. The question is whether or not they care to be ten points better. The Pats seem to be content on doing just enough to beat teams. They aren’t dropping the hammer like they used to. It seems like they’re in “rope a dope” mode just to get through the regular and get everyone healthy for the playoffs. On the other side, the Jets haven’t lost by less than ten points to any team on the road this year. They’ve lost by; 20, 10, 10, 13, 27 and 27. It would be only fitting if I went with the trend by taking New England only to have the Jets show up on the road for the first time all year. I’m going to risk and take New England.
den -1.5 KC
I was on the Kansas City bandwagon to start the season. This team has players all over the field. They have good units on offense, defense and special teams. Then, something happened. The Chiefs were dominated by the Buffalo Bills. Nothing spells disaster more accurately than a drubbing by the Bills. I still have that nasty taste in my mouth. Buffalo was a 2.5 favorite in that game which was ridiculous. The Chiefs should’ve been favored by at least 4 points. They should’ve blown on the Bills. I really think I’ve developed some sort of Post Traumatic Chiefs Disorder (PTCD) after that Bills game. Then last week came. With the Bills game fresh on my mind, I thought for sure that the Chiefs would get tested and possibly beaten by the Patriots. Instead, they put together one of the more impressive showings by any team in the league this year. Where was that in Buffalo? This is exactly what I was talking about in my NFL Road Rage post. I’ll take the Chiefs in an attempt to face my PTCD head on. I respect Dr. Leo Marvin and all but no “Baby Steps” for me.
SD -10.5 oak
The Chargers will be 9-4 after victories in the next two weeks. At that time, they’ll have three huge games left to make the playoffs; at Indianapolis, at Kansas City and Denver. The Chargers have to win at least one of those games and they’ll probably have to win two. I just don’t see it happening. The Chargers are clearly one of the better teams in the NFL but I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs. What a bummer. Anyhow, Oakland is a disaster. They were dominated by Miami (yes, Miami) in Oakland last week. My first inclination is that this line is too big. But, who do the Raiders actually have on defense? Warren Sapp and Charles Woodson are out for the season. That’s not good against the Chargers. I’ll take San Diego.
sea -3.5 PHI
Seattle is funky. The one thing they’ve done consistently this year is win. There has been nothing consistent about how much they’ve won by. They’ve won four games by three points or less and they’ve won four games by 14 points or more. I still have a lot of respect for the Eagles’ defense. They have a lot of veterans that are still playing hard despite being out of the playoff race for the first time in years. The difference in this game should be Seattle’s aggressive defense against former Lion great, Mike McMahon. I’ll take Seattle to cover.
Coin Flip’s picks
buf
PIT
BAL
IND
CLE
NYG
CHI
min
atl
NO
SF
was
NE
den
SD
Sea
My picks
MIA
cin
hou
IND
jax
NYG
gb
min
atl
tb
ari
STL
NE
KC
SD
sea
Coin Flip Challenge Standings:
Jake --------75-80-5
Coin Flip—--63-92-5
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