By now, many of you have probably heard that former Lions running back and Mosi Tatupa Award winner, Brock Olivo, has decided to run for Congress in his native Missouri. Olivo’s political debut came on a video that has made the rounds on YouTube where he has been mocked by seemingly every person in existence. My goal here is not to indict Olivo’s candidacy. Clearly, a 31-year old delving into politics for the first time is going to be “green.” Hardcore political people will make fun of anyone for anything if it makes their side—and thus themselves—look good. That is magnified by three million when the internet is involved. Olivo, no doubt, has a lot more to offer than what his 3-minute spiel might otherwise indicate. One of his main criticisms is that he was not ready to talk about his platform or admit to some of the issues that will be paramount to his campaign. That is a fair point but Olivo stated repeatedly that he was just getting started and would be willing to discuss his platform in due time. Give the guy a break!
Even the most savvy candidates are usually glorified puppets anyways so if you’re going to criticize Olivo for something, criticize him for not understanding that politics is largely about saying things that people want to hear whether you believe them or not. Or, you might criticize him for being forced to put “former member of the Detroit Lions” on his resume. Never mind the criticism that he’s taken thus far for being an appropriately inexperienced, 31-year old politician. Explaining his association with the Lions might be his biggest obstacle. Then again, Olivo picked the right state to make his political debut. Missouri elected a dead guy to the Senate in 2000…not that there’s anything wrong with that.
The Olivo story provides a nice segue into my primary reason for writing which is to respond to one of the least reasonable decisions since the Macaroni Grill got rid of its nachos (Feel free to leave a comment if you feel the same way). The Lions—the 31-81 over the last seven years Lions—have decided to raise ticket prices! Unbelievable. The season-ticket holders are partially to blame on this one. I cannot believe that the Lions still sell-out every game with such a blatant disregard for competency. I would not attend a Lions game for free. William Clay Ford is the worst owner in the history of professional sports and he fittingly has held on to the worst GM in the NFL despite going through three different coaching regimes. It would be astonishing if there wasn't a massive drop-off in season ticket-holders next year. This price increase has to be taken as a slap in the face to any person who has actually spent money on the Lions product. If this doesn’t drive people over the edge, then Ford might as well save money by getting in contact with all of the Alabama degenerates who will no doubt be looking for somewhere to play. He could pay them the league minimum and actually make even more of a profit on this 31-81-thing.
Honestly, what motivation could Ford possibly have in spending even half as much as the rest of the NFL when Lions fans keep spending their hard earned dollar no matter how terrible the team performs? Is it possible that this whole seven-year experience has just been a really long episode of “MTV’s Boiling Point” and Lions fans are about to cash-in on a measly $100? That’s really the only explanation I have for how ghastly the Lions have played and the subsequent indifference demonstrated by the fan-base. Ask any season ticket-holder how they feel about the Lions and they'll start rippin' into Ford and Millen while pulling out their checkbook to renew for next season. Stop giving them your money!
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Monday, February 25, 2008
"Projections" win 8 and 7
There’s the bubble…
Like magic, “the bubble” just appeared out of thin air this week. It is amazing how many teams that were “left for dead” fought there way back, and conversely, how many teams that were near locks went sour in a hurry. The following is by no means conclusive but it is a list of teams on the bubble with three weeks before Selection Sunday.
Dayton-------------UAB-----------Florida
St. Joe’s-----------Houston--------Arkansas
Rhode Island------Ohio St----------VCU
Massachusetts----Syracuse--------Wright St.
UNLV------------Villanova--------Arizona St.
New Mexico-----W. Virginia--------Arizona
San Diego St.-----Illinois St.--------Va. Tech
Texas A&M-------S. Illinois--------Wake Forest
Baylor------------Creighton--------Maryland
Texas Tech-------Kentucky--------Miami FL
This list doesn’t even include teams like Kent St., Oral Roberts, BYU, S. Alabama, and Davidson who would move directly to the bubble if they don’t win their conference tournaments. The last few weeks of the college basketball season usually do a pretty good job of sorting everything out. However, every team listed above pretty much controls its own destiny. Only about 1/3 of the teams listed above will get bids. These teams have a lot of work to do. If I were in charge of the tournament and had to make my selections today, I could only pick 60 worthy teams. The bubble might be large but it's far from impressive.
The Wrecking Balls
If you're reading this, Jay Bilas, please skip to the next paragraph. Michigan’s “maturation” has me all excited for the Big Ten Tournament. Despite a 9-18 overall record, I would take John Beilein’s first-year squad over any of Tommy Amaker’s products heading into the BTT. Amaker never won more than one game in any of his six Big Ten Tournament appearances. Beilein has Michigan playing its best ball heading into the most important part of the season. For much of the Big Ten schedule, Michigan was the 10th best team in the conference and it didn’t appear to be close. Now, a strong argument can be made that Michigan is the 7th best team in the conference closing fast on Minnesota and Ohio St. Michigan has won four of its last five games and nearly beat Purdue and Wisconsin (the top two teams in the conference) earlier in the season. That makes Michigan a less-than-desirable opponent in the Big Ten Tournament. Here are the squads that other teams want to avoid in their respective conference tournaments (to qualify, an at-large bid must be out of the question):
ACC: NC State
NC State has wins over Villanova, Davidson, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Miami FL, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech this season. Over the last seven years, NC State is 10-6 in the ACC Tournament including victories over eight teams in the RPI 45 and three trips to the ACC Final.
Big XII: Oklahoma St.
The Cowboys have had one of its worst teams in recent memory. A 1-6 start in the Big XII ended any hopes for an at-large bid. However, three consecutive wins over Baylor, Texas A&M, and Kansas has OSU playing it best basketball of the season. Only a handful of teams in Division-I basketball can claim a better string of back-to-back-to-back victories. In the last four years, OSU is 9-2 in the Big XII Tournament including two Championships.
Pac 10: Oregon
Oregon has wins over Kansas St., Arizona, and Stanford and has been competitive in its seven losses to teams in the RPI 40 in the Pac 10 alone (with the exception of a 29-point drubbing at Stanford). Oregon is 9-2 in its last four Pac 10 Tournament appearances including two Championships.
Big East: Cincinnati
Cincinnati has wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Villanova. Ohio St. would be a "lock" for the tournament if it could boast such a collection of wins. The Bearcats are also above .500 in the Big East which is a substantial accomplishment considering they were 2-14 in the conference last season.
SEC: Mississippi
The Rebels encountered a debilitating 3-7 stretch after starting the season 15-1. An at-large bid is likely out of the question but a run in the SEC Tournament is not. Mississippi has wins over Clemson, S. Alabama, New Mexico, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi St.
A-10: Temple
The Owls had a chance to climb into the bubble picture but promptly lost an inexcusable home game to Fordham. Still, Temple claims wins over Xavier, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island and boasts a 7-5 record in the A-10.
MVC: Bradley
Bradley was 1-5 in the MVC and seemingly headed for a disappointing season to say the least. Since then, Bradley has gone 8-2 with wins over Illinois St., Creighton, and Drake. Off topic but I feel compelled to give a "shout out" to Hersey Hawkins. It is because of him that I cannot think of Bradley without first thinking of Chocolate Bars.
“Like, for sure”
The Valley had a monumental 2008 Bracket Buster taking eight of its ten match-ups. The MVC had been disappointing all season but the conference did its best to make up for it on one momentous weekend. Just two weeks ago, it appeared that Drake would be the only team from the conference in consideration for an at-large bid. Now, with an RPI neck and neck with the A-10, the MVC should be poised for multiple bids yet again. Drake is a “lock” at this point. I would not be surprised to see two more teams get a bid. The top four teams in the MVC took on very strong candidates in the Bracket Buster and all came away victorious. Drake took down Butler. Illinois St. beat Wright St. S. Illinois hammered Nevada. Creighton beat Oral Roberts. Butler, Wright St., and Oral Roberts are three of the best mid-majors in the country.
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Va. Tech
37 At-Large Miami FL
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large Marquette
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large USC
48 At-Large Stanford
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Baylor
53 At-Large Oklahoma
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Mississippi St.
60 At-Large Kentucky
61 At-Large St. Joe's
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large New Mexico
64 At-Large S. Illinois
65 At-Large UNLV
Changes from last week:
In: Miami FL, Kentucky, S. Illinois, New Mexico, Villanova, Virginia Tech
Out: Syracuse, Florida, Ohio St., Houston, Dayton, Rhode Island
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). S. Illinois
S. Illinois’s candidacy for an at-large bid is tenuous at best. However, I think its fate is pretty simple. If the Salukis don’t lose until the MVC Final, then I think they’re in. Anything short of that would mean a minimum of 13 losses and a trip to the NIT. The Salukis may hold a tiebreaker over a number of teams since its star, Randal Falker, looks like Boyd Tinsley. Hopefully, for SIU's sake, the Selection Committee likes DMB.
2). New Mexico
New Mexico has two games to basically play its way into the tournament. The Lobos might look like a bubble team now but that should change by next weekend. They play UNLV and BYU at home this week. Two wins and they are headed to the tourney. Two losses would not only burst their bubble but might also make Stoney Case cry. A split will keep these guys in the discussion for three more weeks.
3). Va. Tech
The ACC is a mess. There are three teams in the conference that are above .500 with an RPI worse than 60. Most arguments on Selection Sunday are “cut and dry”, IMO. The argument for Va. Tech could go either way. The ACC is, by far, the #1 conference according to the RPI. Finishing above .500 in such a strong conference is quite an achievement. However, Va. Tech has zero wins in the RPI 50. I don’t think this team deserves a bid at the moment but I think their affiliation with the ACC would get them in. Slightly off topic but for anyone wondering why Bimbo Coles goes by “Bimbo”, his given name is Vernell Eufaye Coles…not that there’s anything wrong with that.
4). Maryland
Maryland is pretty much in the same position as Va. Tech with one major exception: Va. Tech beat Maryland twice. So, if Va. Tech doesn’t get a bid, then I don’t see how Maryland can.
5). Texas A&M
Texas A&M is in trouble. As things stand now, I think the Aggies are in. With a stretch against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas to close out the season, things could change. Still, a split in those games would mean a likely ticket to the dance. Interestingly, A&M might miss out on an at-large bid while Kentucky will likely get one. Billy Gillispie took a lot of heat when Kentucky was 7-9 and Texas A&M was 14-1. I’m not sure anyone saw that coming.
First five “out” (no particular order)
1). Illinois St.
Illinois St. knocked Wright St. out of this spot with its eight-point win over the Raiders on Sunday. The MVC will likely get multiple bids so as long as ISU holds on to its second place position, it should be in good shape.
2). Ohio St.
Ohio St. might need to go back to paying its players because this “on the up and up” stuff just isn’t cutting it. Where’s Jim O’Brien’s check book when you need it? By the way, am I the only one who has a hard time understanding the following passage?
“O'Brien won the suit after a judge ruled that, though he had broken his contract by giving the loan, the error was not serious enough to warrant firing.” (Wikipedia)
Since when does “paying a player $6,000” not warrant firing? Plus, he paid two players.
3). Florida
Florida is even worse off than the ACC-trifecta. The Gators have an RPI of 59 and only one win in the RPI 50. That is similar to Maryland and Va. Tech but Florida doesn’t play in the #1 conference in America. Florida will need to finish 3-1 against a pretty tough schedule and win a game in the SEC Tourney.
4). Syracuse
I’m ready to stick a fork in Syracuse. Its remaining schedule is brutal. That would be OK if Syracuse was at or above .500 in the conference. Instead, its 6-7 conference record will probably continue to get worse.
5). Dayton
Dayton has just about finished its all-time caliber tank-job. However, the last three games of the schedule present an opportunity for the Flyers to get back to .500 in the conference. That—combined with at least one win in the A-10 Tourney—would get Dayton right back in the mix.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Tennessee
Memphis
North Carolina
Duke
#2 Seeds
Texas
Kansas
UCLA
Georgetown
#3 Seeds
Connecticut
Wisconsin
Xavier
Purdue
#4 Seeds
Notre Dame
Drake
Michigan St.
Louisville
#5 Seeds
Marquette
Stanford
Butler
Indiana
#6 Seeds
Clemson
Washington St.
Vanderbilt
Arizona
#7 Seeds
Pittsburgh
St. Mary’s
Kent St.
BYU
#8 Seeds
Miami FL
Oklahoma
Massachusetts
Mississippi St.
Big Games this Week
Monday
Texas @ Kansas St.
Marquette @ Villanova
Tuesday
Ohio St. @ Indiana
S. Illinois @ Bradley
BYU @ New Mexico
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
Wednesday
Miami FL @ Clemson
Texas Tech @ Texas A&M
Creighton @ Illinois St.
Thursday
Maryland @ Wake Forest
Michigan St. @ Wisconsin
Notre Dame @ Louisville
Wright St. @ Butler
USC @ Arizona
UCLA @ Arizona St.
Friday
None
Saturday
Ohio St. @ Minnesota
Kansas St. @ Kansas
Texas @ Texas Tech
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma
Georgetown @ Marquette
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse
West Virginia @ Connecticut
USC @ Arizona St.
Washington St. @ Stanford
Mississippi St. @ Florida
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas
St. Mary’s @ Gonzaga
Sunday
Temple @ St. Joe’s
Clemson @ Maryland
Indiana @ Michigan St.
Villanova @ Louisville
UCLA @ Arizona
Kentucky @ Tennessee
Like magic, “the bubble” just appeared out of thin air this week. It is amazing how many teams that were “left for dead” fought there way back, and conversely, how many teams that were near locks went sour in a hurry. The following is by no means conclusive but it is a list of teams on the bubble with three weeks before Selection Sunday.
Dayton-------------UAB-----------Florida
St. Joe’s-----------Houston--------Arkansas
Rhode Island------Ohio St----------VCU
Massachusetts----Syracuse--------Wright St.
UNLV------------Villanova--------Arizona St.
New Mexico-----W. Virginia--------Arizona
San Diego St.-----Illinois St.--------Va. Tech
Texas A&M-------S. Illinois--------Wake Forest
Baylor------------Creighton--------Maryland
Texas Tech-------Kentucky--------Miami FL
This list doesn’t even include teams like Kent St., Oral Roberts, BYU, S. Alabama, and Davidson who would move directly to the bubble if they don’t win their conference tournaments. The last few weeks of the college basketball season usually do a pretty good job of sorting everything out. However, every team listed above pretty much controls its own destiny. Only about 1/3 of the teams listed above will get bids. These teams have a lot of work to do. If I were in charge of the tournament and had to make my selections today, I could only pick 60 worthy teams. The bubble might be large but it's far from impressive.
The Wrecking Balls
If you're reading this, Jay Bilas, please skip to the next paragraph. Michigan’s “maturation” has me all excited for the Big Ten Tournament. Despite a 9-18 overall record, I would take John Beilein’s first-year squad over any of Tommy Amaker’s products heading into the BTT. Amaker never won more than one game in any of his six Big Ten Tournament appearances. Beilein has Michigan playing its best ball heading into the most important part of the season. For much of the Big Ten schedule, Michigan was the 10th best team in the conference and it didn’t appear to be close. Now, a strong argument can be made that Michigan is the 7th best team in the conference closing fast on Minnesota and Ohio St. Michigan has won four of its last five games and nearly beat Purdue and Wisconsin (the top two teams in the conference) earlier in the season. That makes Michigan a less-than-desirable opponent in the Big Ten Tournament. Here are the squads that other teams want to avoid in their respective conference tournaments (to qualify, an at-large bid must be out of the question):
ACC: NC State
NC State has wins over Villanova, Davidson, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Miami FL, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech this season. Over the last seven years, NC State is 10-6 in the ACC Tournament including victories over eight teams in the RPI 45 and three trips to the ACC Final.
Big XII: Oklahoma St.
The Cowboys have had one of its worst teams in recent memory. A 1-6 start in the Big XII ended any hopes for an at-large bid. However, three consecutive wins over Baylor, Texas A&M, and Kansas has OSU playing it best basketball of the season. Only a handful of teams in Division-I basketball can claim a better string of back-to-back-to-back victories. In the last four years, OSU is 9-2 in the Big XII Tournament including two Championships.
Pac 10: Oregon
Oregon has wins over Kansas St., Arizona, and Stanford and has been competitive in its seven losses to teams in the RPI 40 in the Pac 10 alone (with the exception of a 29-point drubbing at Stanford). Oregon is 9-2 in its last four Pac 10 Tournament appearances including two Championships.
Big East: Cincinnati
Cincinnati has wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and Villanova. Ohio St. would be a "lock" for the tournament if it could boast such a collection of wins. The Bearcats are also above .500 in the Big East which is a substantial accomplishment considering they were 2-14 in the conference last season.
SEC: Mississippi
The Rebels encountered a debilitating 3-7 stretch after starting the season 15-1. An at-large bid is likely out of the question but a run in the SEC Tournament is not. Mississippi has wins over Clemson, S. Alabama, New Mexico, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi St.
A-10: Temple
The Owls had a chance to climb into the bubble picture but promptly lost an inexcusable home game to Fordham. Still, Temple claims wins over Xavier, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island and boasts a 7-5 record in the A-10.
MVC: Bradley
Bradley was 1-5 in the MVC and seemingly headed for a disappointing season to say the least. Since then, Bradley has gone 8-2 with wins over Illinois St., Creighton, and Drake. Off topic but I feel compelled to give a "shout out" to Hersey Hawkins. It is because of him that I cannot think of Bradley without first thinking of Chocolate Bars.
“Like, for sure”
The Valley had a monumental 2008 Bracket Buster taking eight of its ten match-ups. The MVC had been disappointing all season but the conference did its best to make up for it on one momentous weekend. Just two weeks ago, it appeared that Drake would be the only team from the conference in consideration for an at-large bid. Now, with an RPI neck and neck with the A-10, the MVC should be poised for multiple bids yet again. Drake is a “lock” at this point. I would not be surprised to see two more teams get a bid. The top four teams in the MVC took on very strong candidates in the Bracket Buster and all came away victorious. Drake took down Butler. Illinois St. beat Wright St. S. Illinois hammered Nevada. Creighton beat Oral Roberts. Butler, Wright St., and Oral Roberts are three of the best mid-majors in the country.
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Va. Tech
37 At-Large Miami FL
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large Marquette
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large USC
48 At-Large Stanford
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Baylor
53 At-Large Oklahoma
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Mississippi St.
60 At-Large Kentucky
61 At-Large St. Joe's
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large New Mexico
64 At-Large S. Illinois
65 At-Large UNLV
Changes from last week:
In: Miami FL, Kentucky, S. Illinois, New Mexico, Villanova, Virginia Tech
Out: Syracuse, Florida, Ohio St., Houston, Dayton, Rhode Island
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). S. Illinois
S. Illinois’s candidacy for an at-large bid is tenuous at best. However, I think its fate is pretty simple. If the Salukis don’t lose until the MVC Final, then I think they’re in. Anything short of that would mean a minimum of 13 losses and a trip to the NIT. The Salukis may hold a tiebreaker over a number of teams since its star, Randal Falker, looks like Boyd Tinsley. Hopefully, for SIU's sake, the Selection Committee likes DMB.
2). New Mexico
New Mexico has two games to basically play its way into the tournament. The Lobos might look like a bubble team now but that should change by next weekend. They play UNLV and BYU at home this week. Two wins and they are headed to the tourney. Two losses would not only burst their bubble but might also make Stoney Case cry. A split will keep these guys in the discussion for three more weeks.
3). Va. Tech
The ACC is a mess. There are three teams in the conference that are above .500 with an RPI worse than 60. Most arguments on Selection Sunday are “cut and dry”, IMO. The argument for Va. Tech could go either way. The ACC is, by far, the #1 conference according to the RPI. Finishing above .500 in such a strong conference is quite an achievement. However, Va. Tech has zero wins in the RPI 50. I don’t think this team deserves a bid at the moment but I think their affiliation with the ACC would get them in. Slightly off topic but for anyone wondering why Bimbo Coles goes by “Bimbo”, his given name is Vernell Eufaye Coles…not that there’s anything wrong with that.
4). Maryland
Maryland is pretty much in the same position as Va. Tech with one major exception: Va. Tech beat Maryland twice. So, if Va. Tech doesn’t get a bid, then I don’t see how Maryland can.
5). Texas A&M
Texas A&M is in trouble. As things stand now, I think the Aggies are in. With a stretch against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas to close out the season, things could change. Still, a split in those games would mean a likely ticket to the dance. Interestingly, A&M might miss out on an at-large bid while Kentucky will likely get one. Billy Gillispie took a lot of heat when Kentucky was 7-9 and Texas A&M was 14-1. I’m not sure anyone saw that coming.
First five “out” (no particular order)
1). Illinois St.
Illinois St. knocked Wright St. out of this spot with its eight-point win over the Raiders on Sunday. The MVC will likely get multiple bids so as long as ISU holds on to its second place position, it should be in good shape.
2). Ohio St.
Ohio St. might need to go back to paying its players because this “on the up and up” stuff just isn’t cutting it. Where’s Jim O’Brien’s check book when you need it? By the way, am I the only one who has a hard time understanding the following passage?
“O'Brien won the suit after a judge ruled that, though he had broken his contract by giving the loan, the error was not serious enough to warrant firing.” (Wikipedia)
Since when does “paying a player $6,000” not warrant firing? Plus, he paid two players.
3). Florida
Florida is even worse off than the ACC-trifecta. The Gators have an RPI of 59 and only one win in the RPI 50. That is similar to Maryland and Va. Tech but Florida doesn’t play in the #1 conference in America. Florida will need to finish 3-1 against a pretty tough schedule and win a game in the SEC Tourney.
4). Syracuse
I’m ready to stick a fork in Syracuse. Its remaining schedule is brutal. That would be OK if Syracuse was at or above .500 in the conference. Instead, its 6-7 conference record will probably continue to get worse.
5). Dayton
Dayton has just about finished its all-time caliber tank-job. However, the last three games of the schedule present an opportunity for the Flyers to get back to .500 in the conference. That—combined with at least one win in the A-10 Tourney—would get Dayton right back in the mix.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Tennessee
Memphis
North Carolina
Duke
#2 Seeds
Texas
Kansas
UCLA
Georgetown
#3 Seeds
Connecticut
Wisconsin
Xavier
Purdue
#4 Seeds
Notre Dame
Drake
Michigan St.
Louisville
#5 Seeds
Marquette
Stanford
Butler
Indiana
#6 Seeds
Clemson
Washington St.
Vanderbilt
Arizona
#7 Seeds
Pittsburgh
St. Mary’s
Kent St.
BYU
#8 Seeds
Miami FL
Oklahoma
Massachusetts
Mississippi St.
Big Games this Week
Monday
Texas @ Kansas St.
Marquette @ Villanova
Tuesday
Ohio St. @ Indiana
S. Illinois @ Bradley
BYU @ New Mexico
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
Wednesday
Miami FL @ Clemson
Texas Tech @ Texas A&M
Creighton @ Illinois St.
Thursday
Maryland @ Wake Forest
Michigan St. @ Wisconsin
Notre Dame @ Louisville
Wright St. @ Butler
USC @ Arizona
UCLA @ Arizona St.
Friday
None
Saturday
Ohio St. @ Minnesota
Kansas St. @ Kansas
Texas @ Texas Tech
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma
Georgetown @ Marquette
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse
West Virginia @ Connecticut
USC @ Arizona St.
Washington St. @ Stanford
Mississippi St. @ Florida
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas
St. Mary’s @ Gonzaga
Sunday
Temple @ St. Joe’s
Clemson @ Maryland
Indiana @ Michigan St.
Villanova @ Louisville
UCLA @ Arizona
Kentucky @ Tennessee
Friday, February 22, 2008
Threats to win the NBA Championship
The recent flurry of trades in the NBA has invigorated playoff hopes for a number of teams. Shaquille O’Neal, Jason Kidd, Pau Gasol and Ben Wallace have presumably increased the chances of their respective teams winning an NBA Title. However, I don’t think those additions change things much—if at all. One thing that any basketball fan should know by now is that the best team almost always wins in the NBA Playoffs. That sounds like a “duh!” comment. However, if everyone was aware of that, then the Spurs would be the favorite by a wide margin to win the NBA Championship for the fourth time in 10 years. Likewise, talk of LA, Phoenix, or Dallas coming out of the West would be non-existent which it most certainly is not. Only eight different teams have won the NBA Championship in the last 28 years! The NBA playoffs are full of very few surprises. So, at the risk of making the playoffs sound incredibly boring, here are the ten teams with the best chances of winning an NBA Championship. I’m not even sure any team beyond #5 even has a chance. With respect to Yao, Dwight Howard, A.I., and Chris Bosh, you will not find their teams on this list despite being above .500.
1). San Antonio Spurs
One thing is for certain—and this makes sense from a marketing perspective but not much else—it has become commonplace to ignore the best team in basketball until they’re five minutes from raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The Spurs are the best team in the league. They have been the best team in the league for a number of years. The only argument that anyone seems to be able to muster to the contrary at this point is that the Spurs have never been able to win back-to-back Championships. I’m guessing a rocket-scientist didn’t come up with that one. Nonetheless, Manu Ginobili is playing the best basketball of his flop-filled career. He has averaged 36 ppg over his last four games. Tim Duncan is having a fantastic—albeit insanely underrated—season. He is averaging 20 ppg, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks while shooting over 50% from the field. Just to compare, KG is averaging fewer points, rebounds, and blocks per game and he’s on everyone’s short list for MVP. When it comes to the playoffs, nobody is as effective as "The Big Fundamental." He has three NBA Finals MVPs to prove it. The only chance the Spurs have of losing is if they runs into a hot team without having home-court advantage. Even then, my money is on San Antonio.
2). Boston Celtics
The Eastern Conference has to take the second and third spots on the “most likely to win the NBA Championship” list because the East is not going to provide much of a challenge for any team not named Boston or Detroit. I’m willing to accept arguments for Cleveland but the 10th team in the West is over .500. The 6th team in the East isn’t. So, it should be considerably easier to get the Finals via the Eastern Conference. Boston gets the edge over Detroit assuming all three of its superstars can stay healthy. An injury to any of the three puts Detroit in this spot. Detroit can beat Boston. However, Boston will have two huge advantages if these teams meet in the playoffs. First, it will likely have home-court advantage. Second, Boston has three legitimate crunch-time scorers. The Pistons have none. There is a huge difference between scorers and crunch-time scorers who can create shots and—more importantly—fouls at the end of games. Boston will be able to find points at the end of games. Detroit won’t find it so easy. Plus, I actually think Boston has a 50/50 shot of beating San Antonio. Detroit? Not so much.
3). Detroit Pistons
I believe there are a few teams in the Western Conference who are as formidable as Detroit. However, those teams will have the Spurs and six other powerhouses to contend with. The Pistons only have to worry about Boston and Cleveland. There is a very good chance that Cleveland will end up as the fourth seed in the East which would set up a Boston-Cleveland match-up in the second round. That would certainly increase the Pistons chances of reaching the finals. The key for Detroit in the playoffs is the bench. The starting five has always found it difficult to generate points against good teams in the playoffs. The bench has been the catalyst for this team all season. If the bench doesn’t show up in the playoffs, I see no reason why anyone should think this team is good enough to reach the NBA Finals.
4). Phoenix Suns
I hated the Shaq-trade at first. And to be honest, I still kind of do. The Suns traded a 29-year old All-Star in his prime for a 35-year old who hasn’t been healthy enough to play more than 59 games in any of the last three seasons. Plus, that 35-year old makes $20 million per year through 2010. The Suns could’ve netted a crop of young players in the same way Kevin McHale cashed in Kevin Garnett (by the way, I think it's time for a number of apologies to start flowing McHale's direction. He may have made the best "it’s time to move on" trade of the last 20 years. Considering their age difference (nine years), I bet half the league would rather have Al Jefferson over KG straight-up. McHale will likely pick up Michael Beasley, Derek Rose, Eric Gordon, or O.J. Mayo in the draft and be in the running for Executive of the Year within two seasons). Instead, Shaq will be out of the league in three years along with Grant Hill and possibly Steve Nash. Having said all of that—and that certainly is a lot—there is no question in my mind that for the next two years, the Suns have a better chance of winning the NBA Championship because of this trade. Playoff basketball is different than regular season basketball. Every weakness gets magnified. The Spurs might take the bait in the regular season and play some up-temp basketball. However, they most certainly will not in the playoffs. The Spurs have dictated tempo against the Suns in the playoffs and that has been the difference (along with one totally ridiculous David Stern-ruling). That probably won’t happen anymore as the Suns should be just as suited to slow things down as they are to play up-tempo basketball. They are easily the second most dangerous team in the Western Conference.
5). LA Lakers
I realize that LA just beat Phoenix but, considering Shaq was admittedly lost in his first game in a Suns uniform, I will avoid making too big of a deal out of one game. There a number of things that concern me about the Lakers. First, Kobe’s “spaghetti finger” could get re-aggravated at any time. There are no guarantees that he’s even going to be around for the playoffs. Second, I’m skeptical as to whether Andrew Bynum can just pick up right where he left off before his injury. A lot has changed since he left most notably being the addition of Pau Gasol. There is no doubt that a Gasol-Odom-Bynum frontcourt is going to be incredibly formidable nonetheless. This team is the wildcard for the 2008 NBA Playoffs. A first-round exit or a monumental battle against the Spurs in the conference finals could be in sstore. Neither would shock me.
6). Cleveland Cavaliers
I have been reluctant to say that LeBron James is the best player in the NBA. He is clearly one of the best. However, his all-around game hasn’t peaked. His jumper varies from dead-on to erratic and his defense is pretty good but not fantastic. IMO, those are the two things keeping LeBron from reaching Kobe’s level. Well, I’m pretty sure that by this time next season, LeBron will be the best player in the league by a mile. He is a combination of Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan. He is a big, strong, ball-handler like Magic and an incredibly, athletic, shot-maker like MJ. LeBron can do things that both men couldn’t do. Magic wasn’t anywhere near as good as LeBron at driving to the basket. MJ didn’t have anywhere near the size and strength as LeBron. I think there is a pretty good chance that—barring injury—LeBron will become the greatest basketball player of all-time. Obviously, a lot needs to happen first. LeBron’s game clearly needs to progress. However, nobody has ever sported his combination of physical stature, athletic ability, and basketball skills. So, now you know why Cleveland is at #6. This team—even with the addition Ben Wallace—has no business being spoken of in the same breath as the above teams. The addition of Wally World doesn’t do a whole lot for me, either. LeBron single-handedly beat the Pistons in the playoffs last season in a series that was totally not a fluke. He is capable of unbelievable things. He is not capable of beating the Spurs by himself. I believe that was proven last season rather emphatically.
7). Dallas Mavericks
We’re getting into the teams that really have no chance of winning. The addition of Jason Kidd certainly makes the Mavs more intriguing but I’m not sure it increases their chances of winning the championship. Kidd has proven time and time again that he is good enough to advance a team in the playoffs but not good enough to lead a team to a championship. Dirk should rebound with a better post-season after his memorable ’07 disappointment against Golden St. The Mavs don’t have a significant defensive post-presence and don’t have enough scoring from the backcourt. Those two factors will make it virtually impossible for the Mavs to come out of the west.
8). Utah Jazz
The #7 and #8 spots can be flip-flopped depending on which team has home-court advantage. The Jazz are a dangerous team with a number of scoring options. Deron Williams has quickly become the Kevin Johnson of the new millennium. Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Andre Kirilenko form one of the best frontcourts in the NBA. The Jazz made it to the Western Conference Finals last season before being thumped by San Antonio. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this team make it that far again with a similar outcome. On an unrelated note; am I the only one who thinks that as long as Jerry Sloan is coaching in Utah, everything is right in the world?
9). Golden St. Warriors
Those of you who fear that watching the Suns won’t be nearly as fun because Shaq will likely slow things down can rest easy. The Warriors have you covered. This team can score. In fact, nobody scores more. The Warriors average an unbelievable 110 ppg. They are led by the triumvirate of Baron Davis (Davis was one of the biggest All-Star snubs in the history of basketball but his omission speaks loudly for the caliber of point-guard in the NBA right now), Monta Ellis, and Stephen Jackson. The Warriors dominated the Mavs in the playoffs last season despite not having home-court advantage. I don’t think there is a team in the Western Conference who is looking forward to playing the Warriors. Even though there is no guarantee that this team will even make the playoffs, this team is dangerous. Unfortunately, a limited post-presence (offensive and defensive) will be too much to overcome. Playoff basketball always exposes teams like the Warriors. If it’s not the first or second round, it’ll happen in the Conference Finals.
10). New Orleans Hornets
I believe the Hornets are going to find out very soon that the playoffs are much different than the regular season. This team is certainly deep and talented. Chris Paul and David West have never started in the playoffs. There are too many seasoned teams in the Western Conference to think that a first-time group can advance even passed the first round. The Hornets are built for the long run. Chris Paul is going to be a legend by the time his career is over. I just don’t think it starts this year.
1). San Antonio Spurs
One thing is for certain—and this makes sense from a marketing perspective but not much else—it has become commonplace to ignore the best team in basketball until they’re five minutes from raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The Spurs are the best team in the league. They have been the best team in the league for a number of years. The only argument that anyone seems to be able to muster to the contrary at this point is that the Spurs have never been able to win back-to-back Championships. I’m guessing a rocket-scientist didn’t come up with that one. Nonetheless, Manu Ginobili is playing the best basketball of his flop-filled career. He has averaged 36 ppg over his last four games. Tim Duncan is having a fantastic—albeit insanely underrated—season. He is averaging 20 ppg, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks while shooting over 50% from the field. Just to compare, KG is averaging fewer points, rebounds, and blocks per game and he’s on everyone’s short list for MVP. When it comes to the playoffs, nobody is as effective as "The Big Fundamental." He has three NBA Finals MVPs to prove it. The only chance the Spurs have of losing is if they runs into a hot team without having home-court advantage. Even then, my money is on San Antonio.
2). Boston Celtics
The Eastern Conference has to take the second and third spots on the “most likely to win the NBA Championship” list because the East is not going to provide much of a challenge for any team not named Boston or Detroit. I’m willing to accept arguments for Cleveland but the 10th team in the West is over .500. The 6th team in the East isn’t. So, it should be considerably easier to get the Finals via the Eastern Conference. Boston gets the edge over Detroit assuming all three of its superstars can stay healthy. An injury to any of the three puts Detroit in this spot. Detroit can beat Boston. However, Boston will have two huge advantages if these teams meet in the playoffs. First, it will likely have home-court advantage. Second, Boston has three legitimate crunch-time scorers. The Pistons have none. There is a huge difference between scorers and crunch-time scorers who can create shots and—more importantly—fouls at the end of games. Boston will be able to find points at the end of games. Detroit won’t find it so easy. Plus, I actually think Boston has a 50/50 shot of beating San Antonio. Detroit? Not so much.
3). Detroit Pistons
I believe there are a few teams in the Western Conference who are as formidable as Detroit. However, those teams will have the Spurs and six other powerhouses to contend with. The Pistons only have to worry about Boston and Cleveland. There is a very good chance that Cleveland will end up as the fourth seed in the East which would set up a Boston-Cleveland match-up in the second round. That would certainly increase the Pistons chances of reaching the finals. The key for Detroit in the playoffs is the bench. The starting five has always found it difficult to generate points against good teams in the playoffs. The bench has been the catalyst for this team all season. If the bench doesn’t show up in the playoffs, I see no reason why anyone should think this team is good enough to reach the NBA Finals.
4). Phoenix Suns
I hated the Shaq-trade at first. And to be honest, I still kind of do. The Suns traded a 29-year old All-Star in his prime for a 35-year old who hasn’t been healthy enough to play more than 59 games in any of the last three seasons. Plus, that 35-year old makes $20 million per year through 2010. The Suns could’ve netted a crop of young players in the same way Kevin McHale cashed in Kevin Garnett (by the way, I think it's time for a number of apologies to start flowing McHale's direction. He may have made the best "it’s time to move on" trade of the last 20 years. Considering their age difference (nine years), I bet half the league would rather have Al Jefferson over KG straight-up. McHale will likely pick up Michael Beasley, Derek Rose, Eric Gordon, or O.J. Mayo in the draft and be in the running for Executive of the Year within two seasons). Instead, Shaq will be out of the league in three years along with Grant Hill and possibly Steve Nash. Having said all of that—and that certainly is a lot—there is no question in my mind that for the next two years, the Suns have a better chance of winning the NBA Championship because of this trade. Playoff basketball is different than regular season basketball. Every weakness gets magnified. The Spurs might take the bait in the regular season and play some up-temp basketball. However, they most certainly will not in the playoffs. The Spurs have dictated tempo against the Suns in the playoffs and that has been the difference (along with one totally ridiculous David Stern-ruling). That probably won’t happen anymore as the Suns should be just as suited to slow things down as they are to play up-tempo basketball. They are easily the second most dangerous team in the Western Conference.
5). LA Lakers
I realize that LA just beat Phoenix but, considering Shaq was admittedly lost in his first game in a Suns uniform, I will avoid making too big of a deal out of one game. There a number of things that concern me about the Lakers. First, Kobe’s “spaghetti finger” could get re-aggravated at any time. There are no guarantees that he’s even going to be around for the playoffs. Second, I’m skeptical as to whether Andrew Bynum can just pick up right where he left off before his injury. A lot has changed since he left most notably being the addition of Pau Gasol. There is no doubt that a Gasol-Odom-Bynum frontcourt is going to be incredibly formidable nonetheless. This team is the wildcard for the 2008 NBA Playoffs. A first-round exit or a monumental battle against the Spurs in the conference finals could be in sstore. Neither would shock me.
6). Cleveland Cavaliers
I have been reluctant to say that LeBron James is the best player in the NBA. He is clearly one of the best. However, his all-around game hasn’t peaked. His jumper varies from dead-on to erratic and his defense is pretty good but not fantastic. IMO, those are the two things keeping LeBron from reaching Kobe’s level. Well, I’m pretty sure that by this time next season, LeBron will be the best player in the league by a mile. He is a combination of Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan. He is a big, strong, ball-handler like Magic and an incredibly, athletic, shot-maker like MJ. LeBron can do things that both men couldn’t do. Magic wasn’t anywhere near as good as LeBron at driving to the basket. MJ didn’t have anywhere near the size and strength as LeBron. I think there is a pretty good chance that—barring injury—LeBron will become the greatest basketball player of all-time. Obviously, a lot needs to happen first. LeBron’s game clearly needs to progress. However, nobody has ever sported his combination of physical stature, athletic ability, and basketball skills. So, now you know why Cleveland is at #6. This team—even with the addition Ben Wallace—has no business being spoken of in the same breath as the above teams. The addition of Wally World doesn’t do a whole lot for me, either. LeBron single-handedly beat the Pistons in the playoffs last season in a series that was totally not a fluke. He is capable of unbelievable things. He is not capable of beating the Spurs by himself. I believe that was proven last season rather emphatically.
7). Dallas Mavericks
We’re getting into the teams that really have no chance of winning. The addition of Jason Kidd certainly makes the Mavs more intriguing but I’m not sure it increases their chances of winning the championship. Kidd has proven time and time again that he is good enough to advance a team in the playoffs but not good enough to lead a team to a championship. Dirk should rebound with a better post-season after his memorable ’07 disappointment against Golden St. The Mavs don’t have a significant defensive post-presence and don’t have enough scoring from the backcourt. Those two factors will make it virtually impossible for the Mavs to come out of the west.
8). Utah Jazz
The #7 and #8 spots can be flip-flopped depending on which team has home-court advantage. The Jazz are a dangerous team with a number of scoring options. Deron Williams has quickly become the Kevin Johnson of the new millennium. Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Andre Kirilenko form one of the best frontcourts in the NBA. The Jazz made it to the Western Conference Finals last season before being thumped by San Antonio. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this team make it that far again with a similar outcome. On an unrelated note; am I the only one who thinks that as long as Jerry Sloan is coaching in Utah, everything is right in the world?
9). Golden St. Warriors
Those of you who fear that watching the Suns won’t be nearly as fun because Shaq will likely slow things down can rest easy. The Warriors have you covered. This team can score. In fact, nobody scores more. The Warriors average an unbelievable 110 ppg. They are led by the triumvirate of Baron Davis (Davis was one of the biggest All-Star snubs in the history of basketball but his omission speaks loudly for the caliber of point-guard in the NBA right now), Monta Ellis, and Stephen Jackson. The Warriors dominated the Mavs in the playoffs last season despite not having home-court advantage. I don’t think there is a team in the Western Conference who is looking forward to playing the Warriors. Even though there is no guarantee that this team will even make the playoffs, this team is dangerous. Unfortunately, a limited post-presence (offensive and defensive) will be too much to overcome. Playoff basketball always exposes teams like the Warriors. If it’s not the first or second round, it’ll happen in the Conference Finals.
10). New Orleans Hornets
I believe the Hornets are going to find out very soon that the playoffs are much different than the regular season. This team is certainly deep and talented. Chris Paul and David West have never started in the playoffs. There are too many seasoned teams in the Western Conference to think that a first-time group can advance even passed the first round. The Hornets are built for the long run. Chris Paul is going to be a legend by the time his career is over. I just don’t think it starts this year.
Monday, February 18, 2008
"Projections" on fire like Michigan Basketball
Michigan continued its supremacy over Michigan St. in basketball by picking up another transitive property victory by virtue of its win at Iowa. Last week I stated what everyone already knows—Penn St. is the barometer in college basketball. Head to head results, RPI, and conference standings mean very little. It’s how you fare against Penn St. that really matters. The second most important barometer in college basketball is, of course, how you fare against Iowa. Michigan St. lost at Iowa. Michigan won at Iowa. The result is Michigan having Michigan St. beat in the two most important differentiating factors in college basketball. Plus, Michigan is 3-0 in its last three games. MSU is 1-2. Other than how you fare against Iowa and Penn St., the best gauge for comparing two teams is—yep, you guessed it—how you fare over your last three games. It must be tough to be a Sparty right now.
A-10 is sinking faster than Aretha Franklin’s seat
Pardon my attack on the Queen of Soul but nobody messes with Beyonce without ending up on the wrong side of a punch-line. It wasn’t but three weeks ago that—in this same spot—I raved about the A-10’s fantastic body of work out of conference. Conferences don’t just accidentally run off a string of victories as impressive as what the A-10 accomplished earlier this season. The A-10 was—and still should be—for real. Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton, and Massachusetts spent much of the year near the top of the RPI. After two weeks of self-destruction, Xavier is the only team that remains in the RPI 20. Massachusetts has all but played its way out of the tournament-field by losing three of its last five including dreadful losses to St. Louis and Fordham. The most surprising collapse, though, belongs to Dayton. The Flyers have followed suit with abysmal displays against Duquesne, GW, and Richmond. If Dayton and Massachusetts continue to falter, then the A-10 could be looking at only two bids. If Dayton and UMASS get back on track and St. Joe’s continues to play well, then the A-10 could be looking at five bids. The A-10’s fate on Selection Sunday remains the biggest mystery in college basketball aside from Oregon’s recruiting tactics.
Memphis is the new UNLV
Perhaps the biggest regular season game in recent college basketball history will be played on Saturday as Memphis battles Tennessee. The game is intriguing enough with the #1 and #2 teams in the RPI duking it out for a likely #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and for supremacy in the state of Tennessee. However, the stakes are much higher as Memphis tries to close out the first perfect regular season in college basketball since UNLV did it in 1991. There have been a number of teams in the last few years alone that have entered the last week of the regular season undefeated. Illinois lost to Ohio St. in 2005 after starting 29-0. St. Joe’s lost to Xavier in 2004 after starting 27-0. Stanford lost to Washington in 2004 after starting 26-0. All three lost the week before Selection Sunday. It would appear that Memphis would have a cakewalk to 34-0 if it can get passed Tennessee since the Tigers don’t play another team in the regular season with an RPI better than 77. However, one thing to consider is that Memphis will likely have to play Houston or UAB for a third time this season in the C-USA Tournament. The latter would be particularly difficult since it would mean Memphis would have to play UAB three times over 28 days. Considering how close their first match-up was (79-78 Memphis), that could be interesting. It’s tough to beat a decent team—and I think Houston and UAB qualify as decent—three times in one season. One thing is for certain—Memphis won’t be criticized for not being tested like it was last season. If Memphis can defeat Tennessee, it will boast non-conference victories over Georgetown, Tennessee, Connecticut, Arizona, USC, Gonzaga, and Oklahoma. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a more impressive collection of non-conference victories by one team.
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Purdue
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Michigan St.
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large St. Joe's
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large Houston
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Houston
Out: Mississippi
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last eight “in” (no particular order)
1). Dayton
Dayton has a strong RPI (23) and a nice collection of wins over Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Rhode Island. Still, I’m not sure a .500 conference record in the A-10 is good enough for an at-large bid. That means Dayton will have to finish 4-1 over its final five games. That won’t be easy with Xavier and St. Joe’s in that group. Fortunately for Dayton, both are home games.
2). Houston
I only have Houston tentatively in the field so don’t start questioning my insanity just yet. I’m disappointed that the pool of potential at-large teams is so weak that I have no other realistic options. Mississippi and Oregon clearly can’t be “in” at this point. VCU just lost to a bad Old Dominion team. Anything short of a 6-0 finish to the season and I’ll find a replacement. On an unrelated note, back in the "Phi Slama Jama" days of Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon, the team actually wore warm-ups that said “Phi Slama Jama.” Can you imagine any coach signing off on that today?
3). Oklahoma
I mentioned last week that OU needed a 2-0 week to stay in the projections. The Sooners went 2-0 and thus stay safe for another week. With non-conference victories over Gonzaga, West Virginia, and Arkansas, I think a .500 conference record will be good enough for a bid. Plus, Kelvin Sampson isn’t their coach anymore. It was a good week to be a Sooner.
4). Baylor
Baylor was 15-2. Now, it’s 16-7. That isn’t good. Baylor went from a near sure-thing to extremely questionable in just a matter of weeks. I can only guess that the team realized it was Baylor. With an RPI of 43 and a resume short on marquee wins, Baylor is reeling. The good news is that a 3-3 finish might be enough and not having to play Kansas or Texas makes that a decent proposition.
5). Florida
Florida has had a weak RPI all season. However, its gaudy record was always enough to fall back on. Florida was 15-2. Now, it’s 19-7. With its gaudy record gone, it doesn’t have much in the name of a resume. Its RPI is weak at 57. It has one win in the RPI 50. Still, Florida only plays one team in the RPI 45 in its last five games. A 3-2 record should be enough to garner a bid.
6). Ohio St.
Ohio St. hasn’t beaten a team with an RPI better than 100 since December 22. That is hard to do. The Buckeyes beat Syracuse and Florida in the non-conference schedule but have feasted exclusively on the bottom-feeders of the Big Ten. I’m starting to think that OSU needs to get to 10-6 to secure a bid.
7). Texas A&M
The Aggies are one of three Big XII teams barely hanging on to a bid. A&M is in the best shape of the bunch with victories over Ohio St., Oral Roberts, and Texas. However, its remaining Big XII schedule is brutal. Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Baylor are four of the final six opponents. The Aggies need at least a 9-7 record to feel good about its chances and I’m not sure that’s going to happen.
8). Syracuse
I thought it was all over for Syracuse when it lost to S. Florida on Wednesday. Three days later, a victory over Georgetown put the Orangemen right back in the field. Syracuse gladly would’ve accepted a loss to S. Florida if it meant a victory over Georgetown.
First eight “out” (no particular order)
1). Oregon
Oregon is pretty much toast. But, if it can go 5-1 over its final six Pac-10 games, I think that would be enough. Unfortunately for Ernie Kent and Co., UCLA, USC, and Arizona are still on the schedule.
2). Mississippi
Despite a 3-7 conference record, Mississippi is in better shape than Oregon. The Rebels only have one opponent in the RPI 45 left on the schedule. A 5-1 finish could be enough. Anything short, though, and they’re done.
3). Arizona St.
ASU keeps coming and going. Every time I think they’re dead, they reel off a string of improbable victories. Every time I think they’re here to stay, they lay an egg. If ASU can go 3-3 over its last six conference games, then I think they might be in good shape. Victories over Xavier, Stanford, and Arizona twice are respectable. To get those three wins it badly needs, ASU will likely either have to win at Oregon or at home against USC.
4). W. Kentucky
It is possible for a team to achieve a good RPI without any wins of note. It doesn’t happen often but W. Kentucky has certainly done so this year. WKU has zero victories inside the RPI 130. Yet, it sports an RPI of 50. The only way WKU gets an at-large bid is if it beats S. Alabama this week and the rest of the fringe teams collapse in a major way. Or, I suppose Darrin Horn could get fellow W. Kentucky alum Clem Haskins to pay someone on the Selection Committee.
5). Miami FL
Miami kept any slim chance it had at making the tournament alive by narrowly escaping at Georgia Tech. Despite a solid RPI of 41, Miami will likely have to beat Duke on Wednesday to have any shot at a bid.
6). VCU
I thought VCU was going to sneak out a bid by winning its last nine Colonial games. A loss to Old Dominion derailed that notion. VCU has wins over Houston and Maryland but the Colonial isn’t particularly strong this year. A bid seems unlikely at this point. Things could change, though.
7). Kentucky
Kentucky had a Syracuse-like week. It was embarrassed by 41 points at Vanderbilt on Tuesday but then beat LSU on Saturday to bring its conference record to 7-3. Kentucky only needs to go 3-3 in its final six SEC games to get to 10-6. The 10-6 mark is usually as good as gold but if there was ever a 10-6-team undeserving, it would be Kentucky.
8). Wright St/S. Illinois/Illinois St/New Mexico
None of these teams are likely to make the tournament. However, if any can win the rest of their regular season games, that would change. I doubt any are good enough to do it but it’s possible.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Memphis
Duke
North Carolina
Tennessee
#2 Seeds
Kansas
Texas
UCLA
Connecticut
#3 Seeds
Georgetown
Purdue
Xavier
Wisconsin
#4 Seeds
Butler
Louisville
Stanford
Drake
#5 Seeds
Notre Dame
Michigan St.
St. Mary’s
Marquette
#6 Seeds
Pittsburgh
Washington St.
Clemson
Indiana
#7 Seeds
Kansas St.
Rhode Island
Arizona
Vanderbilt
#8 Seeds
Texas A&M
BYU
Gonzaga
Dayton
Big Games this Week
Monday
Xavier @ Rhode Island
Texas A&M @ Texas
Syracuse @ Louisville
Tuesday
Purdue @ Indiana
Baylor @ Oklahoma
Wednesday
Houston @ UAB
Mississippi St. @ Mississippi
Thursday
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame
Arizona St. @ Washington St.
Oregon @ USC
S. Alabama @ Western Kentucky
Sam Houston St. @ Stephen F. Austin
Friday
Davidson @ Winthrop
Saturday
Kansas St. @ Baylor
Oklahoma @ Texas
George Mason @ Ohio
VCU @ Akron
Tennessee @ Memphis
Drake @ Butler
Kent St. @ St. Mary’s
Arizona @ Washington St.
Oregon @ UCLA
Arkansas @ Kentucky
Sunday
St. Joe’s @ Rhode Island
Xavier @ Dayton
Wisconsin @ Ohio St.
Louisville @ Pittsburgh
Syracuse @ Notre Dame
A-10 is sinking faster than Aretha Franklin’s seat
Pardon my attack on the Queen of Soul but nobody messes with Beyonce without ending up on the wrong side of a punch-line. It wasn’t but three weeks ago that—in this same spot—I raved about the A-10’s fantastic body of work out of conference. Conferences don’t just accidentally run off a string of victories as impressive as what the A-10 accomplished earlier this season. The A-10 was—and still should be—for real. Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton, and Massachusetts spent much of the year near the top of the RPI. After two weeks of self-destruction, Xavier is the only team that remains in the RPI 20. Massachusetts has all but played its way out of the tournament-field by losing three of its last five including dreadful losses to St. Louis and Fordham. The most surprising collapse, though, belongs to Dayton. The Flyers have followed suit with abysmal displays against Duquesne, GW, and Richmond. If Dayton and Massachusetts continue to falter, then the A-10 could be looking at only two bids. If Dayton and UMASS get back on track and St. Joe’s continues to play well, then the A-10 could be looking at five bids. The A-10’s fate on Selection Sunday remains the biggest mystery in college basketball aside from Oregon’s recruiting tactics.
Memphis is the new UNLV
Perhaps the biggest regular season game in recent college basketball history will be played on Saturday as Memphis battles Tennessee. The game is intriguing enough with the #1 and #2 teams in the RPI duking it out for a likely #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and for supremacy in the state of Tennessee. However, the stakes are much higher as Memphis tries to close out the first perfect regular season in college basketball since UNLV did it in 1991. There have been a number of teams in the last few years alone that have entered the last week of the regular season undefeated. Illinois lost to Ohio St. in 2005 after starting 29-0. St. Joe’s lost to Xavier in 2004 after starting 27-0. Stanford lost to Washington in 2004 after starting 26-0. All three lost the week before Selection Sunday. It would appear that Memphis would have a cakewalk to 34-0 if it can get passed Tennessee since the Tigers don’t play another team in the regular season with an RPI better than 77. However, one thing to consider is that Memphis will likely have to play Houston or UAB for a third time this season in the C-USA Tournament. The latter would be particularly difficult since it would mean Memphis would have to play UAB three times over 28 days. Considering how close their first match-up was (79-78 Memphis), that could be interesting. It’s tough to beat a decent team—and I think Houston and UAB qualify as decent—three times in one season. One thing is for certain—Memphis won’t be criticized for not being tested like it was last season. If Memphis can defeat Tennessee, it will boast non-conference victories over Georgetown, Tennessee, Connecticut, Arizona, USC, Gonzaga, and Oklahoma. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a more impressive collection of non-conference victories by one team.
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Purdue
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Michigan St.
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Arkansas
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large St. Joe's
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large Houston
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Houston
Out: Mississippi
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last eight “in” (no particular order)
1). Dayton
Dayton has a strong RPI (23) and a nice collection of wins over Louisville, Pittsburgh, and Rhode Island. Still, I’m not sure a .500 conference record in the A-10 is good enough for an at-large bid. That means Dayton will have to finish 4-1 over its final five games. That won’t be easy with Xavier and St. Joe’s in that group. Fortunately for Dayton, both are home games.
2). Houston
I only have Houston tentatively in the field so don’t start questioning my insanity just yet. I’m disappointed that the pool of potential at-large teams is so weak that I have no other realistic options. Mississippi and Oregon clearly can’t be “in” at this point. VCU just lost to a bad Old Dominion team. Anything short of a 6-0 finish to the season and I’ll find a replacement. On an unrelated note, back in the "Phi Slama Jama" days of Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon, the team actually wore warm-ups that said “Phi Slama Jama.” Can you imagine any coach signing off on that today?
3). Oklahoma
I mentioned last week that OU needed a 2-0 week to stay in the projections. The Sooners went 2-0 and thus stay safe for another week. With non-conference victories over Gonzaga, West Virginia, and Arkansas, I think a .500 conference record will be good enough for a bid. Plus, Kelvin Sampson isn’t their coach anymore. It was a good week to be a Sooner.
4). Baylor
Baylor was 15-2. Now, it’s 16-7. That isn’t good. Baylor went from a near sure-thing to extremely questionable in just a matter of weeks. I can only guess that the team realized it was Baylor. With an RPI of 43 and a resume short on marquee wins, Baylor is reeling. The good news is that a 3-3 finish might be enough and not having to play Kansas or Texas makes that a decent proposition.
5). Florida
Florida has had a weak RPI all season. However, its gaudy record was always enough to fall back on. Florida was 15-2. Now, it’s 19-7. With its gaudy record gone, it doesn’t have much in the name of a resume. Its RPI is weak at 57. It has one win in the RPI 50. Still, Florida only plays one team in the RPI 45 in its last five games. A 3-2 record should be enough to garner a bid.
6). Ohio St.
Ohio St. hasn’t beaten a team with an RPI better than 100 since December 22. That is hard to do. The Buckeyes beat Syracuse and Florida in the non-conference schedule but have feasted exclusively on the bottom-feeders of the Big Ten. I’m starting to think that OSU needs to get to 10-6 to secure a bid.
7). Texas A&M
The Aggies are one of three Big XII teams barely hanging on to a bid. A&M is in the best shape of the bunch with victories over Ohio St., Oral Roberts, and Texas. However, its remaining Big XII schedule is brutal. Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Baylor are four of the final six opponents. The Aggies need at least a 9-7 record to feel good about its chances and I’m not sure that’s going to happen.
8). Syracuse
I thought it was all over for Syracuse when it lost to S. Florida on Wednesday. Three days later, a victory over Georgetown put the Orangemen right back in the field. Syracuse gladly would’ve accepted a loss to S. Florida if it meant a victory over Georgetown.
First eight “out” (no particular order)
1). Oregon
Oregon is pretty much toast. But, if it can go 5-1 over its final six Pac-10 games, I think that would be enough. Unfortunately for Ernie Kent and Co., UCLA, USC, and Arizona are still on the schedule.
2). Mississippi
Despite a 3-7 conference record, Mississippi is in better shape than Oregon. The Rebels only have one opponent in the RPI 45 left on the schedule. A 5-1 finish could be enough. Anything short, though, and they’re done.
3). Arizona St.
ASU keeps coming and going. Every time I think they’re dead, they reel off a string of improbable victories. Every time I think they’re here to stay, they lay an egg. If ASU can go 3-3 over its last six conference games, then I think they might be in good shape. Victories over Xavier, Stanford, and Arizona twice are respectable. To get those three wins it badly needs, ASU will likely either have to win at Oregon or at home against USC.
4). W. Kentucky
It is possible for a team to achieve a good RPI without any wins of note. It doesn’t happen often but W. Kentucky has certainly done so this year. WKU has zero victories inside the RPI 130. Yet, it sports an RPI of 50. The only way WKU gets an at-large bid is if it beats S. Alabama this week and the rest of the fringe teams collapse in a major way. Or, I suppose Darrin Horn could get fellow W. Kentucky alum Clem Haskins to pay someone on the Selection Committee.
5). Miami FL
Miami kept any slim chance it had at making the tournament alive by narrowly escaping at Georgia Tech. Despite a solid RPI of 41, Miami will likely have to beat Duke on Wednesday to have any shot at a bid.
6). VCU
I thought VCU was going to sneak out a bid by winning its last nine Colonial games. A loss to Old Dominion derailed that notion. VCU has wins over Houston and Maryland but the Colonial isn’t particularly strong this year. A bid seems unlikely at this point. Things could change, though.
7). Kentucky
Kentucky had a Syracuse-like week. It was embarrassed by 41 points at Vanderbilt on Tuesday but then beat LSU on Saturday to bring its conference record to 7-3. Kentucky only needs to go 3-3 in its final six SEC games to get to 10-6. The 10-6 mark is usually as good as gold but if there was ever a 10-6-team undeserving, it would be Kentucky.
8). Wright St/S. Illinois/Illinois St/New Mexico
None of these teams are likely to make the tournament. However, if any can win the rest of their regular season games, that would change. I doubt any are good enough to do it but it’s possible.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Memphis
Duke
North Carolina
Tennessee
#2 Seeds
Kansas
Texas
UCLA
Connecticut
#3 Seeds
Georgetown
Purdue
Xavier
Wisconsin
#4 Seeds
Butler
Louisville
Stanford
Drake
#5 Seeds
Notre Dame
Michigan St.
St. Mary’s
Marquette
#6 Seeds
Pittsburgh
Washington St.
Clemson
Indiana
#7 Seeds
Kansas St.
Rhode Island
Arizona
Vanderbilt
#8 Seeds
Texas A&M
BYU
Gonzaga
Dayton
Big Games this Week
Monday
Xavier @ Rhode Island
Texas A&M @ Texas
Syracuse @ Louisville
Tuesday
Purdue @ Indiana
Baylor @ Oklahoma
Wednesday
Houston @ UAB
Mississippi St. @ Mississippi
Thursday
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame
Arizona St. @ Washington St.
Oregon @ USC
S. Alabama @ Western Kentucky
Sam Houston St. @ Stephen F. Austin
Friday
Davidson @ Winthrop
Saturday
Kansas St. @ Baylor
Oklahoma @ Texas
George Mason @ Ohio
VCU @ Akron
Tennessee @ Memphis
Drake @ Butler
Kent St. @ St. Mary’s
Arizona @ Washington St.
Oregon @ UCLA
Arkansas @ Kentucky
Sunday
St. Joe’s @ Rhode Island
Xavier @ Dayton
Wisconsin @ Ohio St.
Louisville @ Pittsburgh
Syracuse @ Notre Dame
Sunday, February 17, 2008
The New Age of the Dunk Competition
I’d like to comment on Gerald Green’s barefoot dunk in hopefully less boring fashion than Dr. J. Dwight Howard was fantastic. He deserved to win. However, the most underrated dunk in the history of dunks was Green’s barefoot, between-the-legs dunk. I’m not sure I could even touch the net in bare feet. He pigeonholed himself by doing a "normal" between-the-legs dunk earlier in the competition but he was robbed of his proper due. Darryl Dawkins even knocked Green’s shoes off the judges table in a sign of disrespect for the dunk.
The best dunk of the night, IMO, was Howard’s dunk from behind the basket. That was truly unbelievable. I would love to know if other NBA players can do that dunk. The most entertaining dunk of the night easily goes to Green for his “Birthday Cake” dunk. He was also robbed of his proper due on that one because it could only be truly appreciated in slow motion. Darryl Dawkins gave him an “8.” Video replay should be afforded to the judges. Dunks have gotten so good that people can’t even tell how good the dunk was without the aid of video replay. Also, Dawkins needs to issue a public apology for being the worst judge in dunk history.
One last note: I enjoyed the showmanship of Howard’s “Superman” dunk but it wasn’t a dunk. Kenny Smith played into it nicely by suggesting that Howard throwing the ball through the hoop was just a testament to how high Howard jumped and was done purposefully. I replayed it a number of times and you can clearly see that Howard was too far away from the rim to complete the dunk so he threw it. It looked good live so he didn’t pay the price.
Anyhow, here are my three favorite dunks of the night…
#3 Gerald Green's "Barefoot, between-the-legs" Dunk (3:00 mark)
#2 Gerald Green's "Birthday Cake" Dunk
#1 Dwight Howard's "Behind the Backboard" Dunk (2:00 mark)
The best dunk of the night, IMO, was Howard’s dunk from behind the basket. That was truly unbelievable. I would love to know if other NBA players can do that dunk. The most entertaining dunk of the night easily goes to Green for his “Birthday Cake” dunk. He was also robbed of his proper due on that one because it could only be truly appreciated in slow motion. Darryl Dawkins gave him an “8.” Video replay should be afforded to the judges. Dunks have gotten so good that people can’t even tell how good the dunk was without the aid of video replay. Also, Dawkins needs to issue a public apology for being the worst judge in dunk history.
One last note: I enjoyed the showmanship of Howard’s “Superman” dunk but it wasn’t a dunk. Kenny Smith played into it nicely by suggesting that Howard throwing the ball through the hoop was just a testament to how high Howard jumped and was done purposefully. I replayed it a number of times and you can clearly see that Howard was too far away from the rim to complete the dunk so he threw it. It looked good live so he didn’t pay the price.
Anyhow, here are my three favorite dunks of the night…
#3 Gerald Green's "Barefoot, between-the-legs" Dunk (3:00 mark)
#2 Gerald Green's "Birthday Cake" Dunk
#1 Dwight Howard's "Behind the Backboard" Dunk (2:00 mark)
Friday, February 15, 2008
Memo to Flip: Don't bench the bench in the playoffs
I’m sure the rest of the league has noticed that the Pistons have put together a 10-game winning streak but I’m not sure if people are noticing the manner in which they have done it. The starters are playing fewer minutes than ever thus they are more productive than ever thus the team is better than ever (sans 2004). Fewer starter minutes=better team? Who would’ve thought? Those of you who had little-to-no hope of Pistons glory for 2007-08 (like me) will no doubt be shocked by a totally unexpected development. The Pistons have the most important bench in the NBA. In fact, it is so good that it not only extends leads but has done the unthinkable: inspire the starters! Flip Saunders need to continue to play the bench in the same capacity throughout the playoffs to have a shot at the NBA Title. My concern is that Saunders might not be able to bring himself to do such a thing.
During the ten game-winning streak, the bench has averaged 95 minutes per game. That is close to 20 minutes more than what it was averaging before the streak. The bench has provided a number of important advantages that have allowed the team to gel and work at—what I believe to be—its optimum level. Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton have seen their shooting percentages sky-rocket to career-bests this season. There is every reason to think that is due to being more rested when they’re on the court or, put another way, firing up fewer shots when they’re fatigued.
This Pistons bench isn’t your average NBA bench. This bench speeds up the game offensively and defensively which contrasts the methodical style of the starters. Billups has nicknamed them the “Zoo Crew” because they are like caged Lions when they hit the floor. The bench wears out the opposition and does it while playing very good basketball. Over the ten-game winning streak, the bench has outscored the opposition by 115 points. With their bench in the game, the Pistons have extended leads by an average of 12 points per game. That is a luxury that few teams, if any, have in the NBA right now. Amazingly, the average age of the primary contributors off the bench is 22.6. That means two very important things and one not-so-good thing. 1). These guys have plenty of “legs” to burn. 2). They will surely develop into even better players. 3). And, of course, other teams will overpay for them in free agency.
Those of you who have watched the Pistons throughout the winning streak know that the starters have played at a more efficient level. They "drop the hammer" from the opening tip. They rarely look sloppy. There is no question that with fewer minutes, they aren’t as bored and, probably more importantly, are well rested. The massive increase in minutes for the bench has also had a little-noticed but possibly very important additional effect. The starters have been matched up with different combinations of bench players and it appears that they are inspired by playing with these new groups or configurations. I don’t think the importance of motivation or enthusiasm on this team can be properly underscored. Anything that gets the starters out of their comfort or boredom zone is crucial.
I’m reserved to the likely fact that Saunders will revert to form come playoff time by stapling Jason Maxiell, Rodney Stuckey, and Co. to the bench. I’m sure the words “youth” and “playoffs” make Saunders uncomfortable. However, I am imploring Saunders to reconsider. Anything short of sticking with what the Pistons are doing right now will result in another LeBron-style exit from the playoffs. This team can win a championship but it cannot do it without the bench playing big-time minutes. If he realizes this team plays at its optimum level when the bench is getting 90+ minutes a game, then look out come June.
During the ten game-winning streak, the bench has averaged 95 minutes per game. That is close to 20 minutes more than what it was averaging before the streak. The bench has provided a number of important advantages that have allowed the team to gel and work at—what I believe to be—its optimum level. Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton have seen their shooting percentages sky-rocket to career-bests this season. There is every reason to think that is due to being more rested when they’re on the court or, put another way, firing up fewer shots when they’re fatigued.
This Pistons bench isn’t your average NBA bench. This bench speeds up the game offensively and defensively which contrasts the methodical style of the starters. Billups has nicknamed them the “Zoo Crew” because they are like caged Lions when they hit the floor. The bench wears out the opposition and does it while playing very good basketball. Over the ten-game winning streak, the bench has outscored the opposition by 115 points. With their bench in the game, the Pistons have extended leads by an average of 12 points per game. That is a luxury that few teams, if any, have in the NBA right now. Amazingly, the average age of the primary contributors off the bench is 22.6. That means two very important things and one not-so-good thing. 1). These guys have plenty of “legs” to burn. 2). They will surely develop into even better players. 3). And, of course, other teams will overpay for them in free agency.
Those of you who have watched the Pistons throughout the winning streak know that the starters have played at a more efficient level. They "drop the hammer" from the opening tip. They rarely look sloppy. There is no question that with fewer minutes, they aren’t as bored and, probably more importantly, are well rested. The massive increase in minutes for the bench has also had a little-noticed but possibly very important additional effect. The starters have been matched up with different combinations of bench players and it appears that they are inspired by playing with these new groups or configurations. I don’t think the importance of motivation or enthusiasm on this team can be properly underscored. Anything that gets the starters out of their comfort or boredom zone is crucial.
I’m reserved to the likely fact that Saunders will revert to form come playoff time by stapling Jason Maxiell, Rodney Stuckey, and Co. to the bench. I’m sure the words “youth” and “playoffs” make Saunders uncomfortable. However, I am imploring Saunders to reconsider. Anything short of sticking with what the Pistons are doing right now will result in another LeBron-style exit from the playoffs. This team can win a championship but it cannot do it without the bench playing big-time minutes. If he realizes this team plays at its optimum level when the bench is getting 90+ minutes a game, then look out come June.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Projections more confident than Kanye West
I would like to invoke the transitive property to prove Michigan’s dominance over Michigan St. in basketball. The Wolverines got off to a brutal start this season while Michigan St. has been spectacular sans a couple in-conference meltdowns. However, everyone who follows basketball knows that Penn St. is the barometer in college basketball. Since Michigan beat Penn St. on Saturday, and Penn St. beat Michigan St. last Saturday, it can be said—without a shadow of a doubt—that Michigan currently sports the superior basketball program. I realize there will be more than a few totally biased Spartans out there who will argue that Michigan St. beat Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio St., and Purdue while Michigan lost to all four giving Michigan St. the advantage in transitive property superiority, 4-1. Some may even choose to cite Michigan St.'s head-to-head victory. While I applaud their fandom, those reasons ring hollow. Everyone knows that you’re judged on what you have done most recently—and what you’ve done against Penn St. The pendulum has swung in Michigan’s favor. And all I can say is, “Eat it, Sparty!”
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC UNLV
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Siena
18 Big Sky Portland St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot American
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Arkansas
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large St. Joe's
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Maryland
Out: NC State
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). Oklahoma
I wanted to take Oklahoma out of the field this week but, since there’s no bubble, I had no team to take its place. I briefly considered Michigan but its 169 RPI poses a problem. Losing to Colorado was a huge blow to OU’s chances at securing an at-large bid. Another slip-up like that and it's NIT-time. The Sooners have wins over Arkansas, West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Baylor and a mid-40s RPI. Oregon sports a similar resume but Oklahoma has a fairly manageable schedule remaining. If OU doesn’t go 2-0 this week, then "no matter what occurs! I will find you. No matter how long it takes, no matter how far, I will find..." a replacement.
2). Mississippi St.
Mississippi St. can all but clinch an at-large bid with a win at home against Arkansas on Saturday. A loss wouldn’t be a deal-breaker but it would almost guarantee a nervous Selection Sunday. The Bulldogs don’t have a great resume but a win over Arkansas would almost certainly mean a minimum of a 10-6 conference record. That has historically been good enough for a bid with few exceptions.
3). Syracuse
If Syracuse loses to S. Florida this week, then it’s over. A win still leaves the Orange with less than a 50% chance of making the tournament. Contrast Syracuse’s remaining Big East schedule to Seton Hall’s and you have to wonder if Ramon Ramos is making the schedules. The good news is that the Orange can always choose to play the, “struggle mightily in the regular season only to improbably win the Big East conference tournament by beating four teams in the RPI 40 in four days” card.
4). Maryland
I should’ve known that Gary Williams would eventually get Maryland into that “fourth team in the ACC” spot. I feel like a fool for not realizing this sooner. I had my reasons to doubt, though. Maryland started the season 6-6 with losses at home to American (shouldn’t a school with a name like that get more attention?), and Ohio. Maryland’s resume is still pretty questionable but a 6-3 record in the ACC is a guarantee for the tourney. A few unexpected losses could change things but Maryland could probably finish 3-4 over its last seven and still make the tourney.
5). West Virginia
This is a team that has looked like a solid bet for an at-large bid all season. For that to remain true and avoid another Rich Rodriguez-style rude-awakening, WVU will have to go 5-3 in its last eight conference games. The schedule isn’t too daunting but I can't say I'd be surprised if WVU flamed out.
First five “out” (no particular order)
1). Seton Hall
2). Houston
Houston will be in this section for the remainder of the season unless it can win @ Memphis this week or get the editor of the August 26, 1991 edition of Sports Illustrated on the Selection Committee. I'm skeptical that either is going to happen. So, Houston will have to sweat out Selection Sunday with a 14-2 conference record and an RPI in the 40s. Houston’s best win on the season is against Kentucky. That’s starting to look a bit better but no wins inside the RPI 80 is a deal-breaker.
3). NC State
If the Wolfpack lose @ Boston College on Thursday, then you will probably never see its name in this space again unless. A decent RPI and a near .500 record in the ACC is the only reason I’m still writing about these guys. NC State has no wins in the RPI 40. It lost to New Orleans and East Carolina which is atrocious to have on a resume.
4). VCU
If VCU plays George Mason in the Colonial Conference Championship Game, I think there is a good chance that both will get in. VCU has wins over Maryland and Houston and will likely sport a 16-2 conference record. VCU will need to beat Akron in its Bracket Buster game. If it does all that, it’ll have a 21-5 record and an RPI in the 40s. That should get it done.
5). Kentucky
If Kentucky can win five of its final eight SEC games, it’ll finish with at least an 11-5 conference record. I’m pretty sure that there has never been a major-conference team left out of the tourney with 11 conference wins since the tourney expanded to 64 teams. Plus, the Selection Committee values how teams are playing at the end of the season. Kentucky has won five in a row including a victory over the #1 team in the RPI (Tennessee). I don’t think many people would’ve believed this three weeks ago but Kentucky controls its own destination for a tourney bid despite an 89 RPI.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Duke
North Carolina
Memphis
Kansas
#2 Seeds
Tennessee
UCLA
Georgetown
Connecticut
#3 Seeds
Michigan St.
Texas
Xavier
Stanford
#4 Seeds
Drake
Butler
Pittsburgh
Louisville
#5 Seeds
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Purdue
St. Mary’s
#6 Seeds
Vanderbilt
Kansas St.
Indiana
Texas A&M
#7 Seeds
Washington St.
Rhode Island
Arizona
Arkansas
#8 Seeds
Clemson
Baylor
Marquette
Dayton
Just outside the top 8-seeds: Mississippi, USC, Gonzaga, Florida, and Massachusetts
Big Games this Week
Monday
Kansas @ Texas
Utah St. @ Nevada
Tuesday
Michigan St. @ Purdue
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Marquette @ Seton Hall
Wednesday
Maryland @ Duke
Wisconsin @ Indiana
Notre Dame @ Connecticut
Houston @ Memphis
Arkansas @ Tennessee
Thursday
None
Friday
Pittsburgh @ Marquette
Saturday
Clemson @ NC State
Michigan St. @ Indiana
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Texas @ Baylor
Georgetown @ Syracuse
Ohio @ Kent St.
UNLV @ BYU
Stanford @ Arizona
UCLA @ USC
Washington St. @ Oregon
Arkansas @ Mississippi St.
Florida @ Vanderbilt
Sunday
Seton Hall @ West Virginia
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC UNLV
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Siena
18 Big Sky Portland St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot American
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Arkansas
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large St. Joe's
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Maryland
Out: NC State
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). Oklahoma
I wanted to take Oklahoma out of the field this week but, since there’s no bubble, I had no team to take its place. I briefly considered Michigan but its 169 RPI poses a problem. Losing to Colorado was a huge blow to OU’s chances at securing an at-large bid. Another slip-up like that and it's NIT-time. The Sooners have wins over Arkansas, West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Baylor and a mid-40s RPI. Oregon sports a similar resume but Oklahoma has a fairly manageable schedule remaining. If OU doesn’t go 2-0 this week, then "no matter what occurs! I will find you. No matter how long it takes, no matter how far, I will find..." a replacement.
2). Mississippi St.
Mississippi St. can all but clinch an at-large bid with a win at home against Arkansas on Saturday. A loss wouldn’t be a deal-breaker but it would almost guarantee a nervous Selection Sunday. The Bulldogs don’t have a great resume but a win over Arkansas would almost certainly mean a minimum of a 10-6 conference record. That has historically been good enough for a bid with few exceptions.
3). Syracuse
If Syracuse loses to S. Florida this week, then it’s over. A win still leaves the Orange with less than a 50% chance of making the tournament. Contrast Syracuse’s remaining Big East schedule to Seton Hall’s and you have to wonder if Ramon Ramos is making the schedules. The good news is that the Orange can always choose to play the, “struggle mightily in the regular season only to improbably win the Big East conference tournament by beating four teams in the RPI 40 in four days” card.
4). Maryland
I should’ve known that Gary Williams would eventually get Maryland into that “fourth team in the ACC” spot. I feel like a fool for not realizing this sooner. I had my reasons to doubt, though. Maryland started the season 6-6 with losses at home to American (shouldn’t a school with a name like that get more attention?), and Ohio. Maryland’s resume is still pretty questionable but a 6-3 record in the ACC is a guarantee for the tourney. A few unexpected losses could change things but Maryland could probably finish 3-4 over its last seven and still make the tourney.
5). West Virginia
This is a team that has looked like a solid bet for an at-large bid all season. For that to remain true and avoid another Rich Rodriguez-style rude-awakening, WVU will have to go 5-3 in its last eight conference games. The schedule isn’t too daunting but I can't say I'd be surprised if WVU flamed out.
First five “out” (no particular order)
1). Seton Hall
For the third consecutive week, Seton Hall is in this position. The Pirates have lost three in a row. Their RPI is 60. They’re under .500 in the Big East. Few things seem to be going right. However, remember the last few weeks when I mentioned that Seton Hall has the easiest conference schedule to close out the season? Well, that’s about to come into play. Seton Hall has to split its next two games at home against Marquette and @ West Virginia. After that, it’s RPIs of 136, 160, 123, and 198 with a home game against Syracuse in there. Seton Hall has a pretty good shot at 10-8 in the Big East. That would likely be good enough for a tourney-bid. Lose the next two, though, and they’re toast.
2). Houston
Houston will be in this section for the remainder of the season unless it can win @ Memphis this week or get the editor of the August 26, 1991 edition of Sports Illustrated on the Selection Committee. I'm skeptical that either is going to happen. So, Houston will have to sweat out Selection Sunday with a 14-2 conference record and an RPI in the 40s. Houston’s best win on the season is against Kentucky. That’s starting to look a bit better but no wins inside the RPI 80 is a deal-breaker.
3). NC State
If the Wolfpack lose @ Boston College on Thursday, then you will probably never see its name in this space again unless. A decent RPI and a near .500 record in the ACC is the only reason I’m still writing about these guys. NC State has no wins in the RPI 40. It lost to New Orleans and East Carolina which is atrocious to have on a resume.
4). VCU
If VCU plays George Mason in the Colonial Conference Championship Game, I think there is a good chance that both will get in. VCU has wins over Maryland and Houston and will likely sport a 16-2 conference record. VCU will need to beat Akron in its Bracket Buster game. If it does all that, it’ll have a 21-5 record and an RPI in the 40s. That should get it done.
5). Kentucky
If Kentucky can win five of its final eight SEC games, it’ll finish with at least an 11-5 conference record. I’m pretty sure that there has never been a major-conference team left out of the tourney with 11 conference wins since the tourney expanded to 64 teams. Plus, the Selection Committee values how teams are playing at the end of the season. Kentucky has won five in a row including a victory over the #1 team in the RPI (Tennessee). I don’t think many people would’ve believed this three weeks ago but Kentucky controls its own destination for a tourney bid despite an 89 RPI.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Duke
North Carolina
Memphis
Kansas
#2 Seeds
Tennessee
UCLA
Georgetown
Connecticut
#3 Seeds
Michigan St.
Texas
Xavier
Stanford
#4 Seeds
Drake
Butler
Pittsburgh
Louisville
#5 Seeds
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Purdue
St. Mary’s
#6 Seeds
Vanderbilt
Kansas St.
Indiana
Texas A&M
#7 Seeds
Washington St.
Rhode Island
Arizona
Arkansas
#8 Seeds
Clemson
Baylor
Marquette
Dayton
Just outside the top 8-seeds: Mississippi, USC, Gonzaga, Florida, and Massachusetts
Big Games this Week
Monday
Kansas @ Texas
Utah St. @ Nevada
Tuesday
Michigan St. @ Purdue
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Marquette @ Seton Hall
Wednesday
Maryland @ Duke
Wisconsin @ Indiana
Notre Dame @ Connecticut
Houston @ Memphis
Arkansas @ Tennessee
Thursday
None
Friday
Pittsburgh @ Marquette
Saturday
Clemson @ NC State
Michigan St. @ Indiana
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Texas @ Baylor
Georgetown @ Syracuse
Ohio @ Kent St.
UNLV @ BYU
Stanford @ Arizona
UCLA @ USC
Washington St. @ Oregon
Arkansas @ Mississippi St.
Florida @ Vanderbilt
Sunday
Seton Hall @ West Virginia
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Dude can recruit!
Apparently, Rich Rodriguez can recruit. When Rodriguez left West Virginia for Michigan it became chic for everyone who wanted him to fail—bitter fans of WVU or nervous rivals, no doubt—to attack Rodriguez's recruiting prowess at West Virginia. Every coach at West Virginia should be able to out-recruit Michigan and Ohio St, right? This group must also be convinced that Pete Carroll could pull in the nation’s #1 recruiting class at Louisiana-Lafayette. Anyone with an IQ above 80—and most below—knows that this line of reasoning is idiotic. Now, there’s proof of the idiocy. In just a few short weeks, Rodriguez actually improved Michigan’s standing in various recruiting rankings from where it was when he took over. That wasn’t any easy chore, either, considering Lloyd Carr had already put together the makings of a formidable class. Michigan finished with the #10 recruiting-class according to Rivals. Only two schools in the country signed more 4 and 5-star recruits (Note: Michigan didn't sign any 5-star recruits but landed a whopping 17 4-star recruits. Those of you annoyed that Michigan is the only program in the Rivals top ten that didn't sign a 5-star recruit, no worries. Michigan already has a 5-star commited for next year's class.) More impressive is that Rodriguez was able to significantly bolster the class without Terrelle Pryor whose decision is scheduled to be made 10 minutes after never. Rodriguez didn’t need a mega-recruit to turn this class into a raging success as everyone and their brother had suggested.
There is no question that Rodriguez was brought to Michigan to catch up to Ohio St. Everything Jim Tressel said at halftime of the infamous Ohio St. basketball game seven years ago also applies to Rodriguez even if he didn’t actually say it. Bringing Michigan’s scheme and conditioning program into the 21st century is just one step in making that happen. The other is recruiting which almost always begins with battling Ohio St. for Ohio-recruits. Michigan didn’t land a single recruit from Ohio in 2007. The state of Ohio has one of the richest crops of high school football talent in the country in any given year (Ohio had at least 50 3-star or better recruits in the state this year. Michigan had 23). Getting shutout in Ohio is a disaster any way you put it. Although there are a number of impressive facts about Michigan’s Pryor-less recruiting class, the most impressive, in my opinion, is the way Rodriguez was able to attack the state of Ohio in just a few weeks. All told, Michigan signed seven players from Ohio. Carr had reeled in three before he retired and Rodriguez added four more. Of the top 17 players in Ohio, Michigan signed six. Ohio St. signed five. Last year, Ohio St. signed eight and Michigan signed zero. That is a huge one-year turnaround. Remember, the Ohio-recruiting scene isn’t anything like Michigan’s. It might sound impressive for Michigan St. to boast that it signed 11 of the top 26 recruits in the state of Michigan while Michigan only signed five. The difference is that Michigan doesn’t recruit players outside of the top ten in its own state. Michigan St. can pretty much have anyone it wants at that point. Ohio St. recruits players even outside of the top 50 in the state of Ohio. For Michigan to come in and grab seven Ohio players—six of the top 17—is a huge momentum-changer in Michigan’s efforts to recruit Ohio.
Rodriguez’s intention to sign a full 27-man class meant he had 8-10 scholarships to fill. Instead of haphazardly handing out scholarships to the same caliber player that he recruited at West Virginia or this guy, he took his time to target upper-echelon players and scored with a number of highly-touted recruits. Rodriguez—in the same way Luke Skywalker quickly picked up on the power of “The Force”—has quickly picked up on the far-reaching power of the block “M.” At West Virginia, Rodriguez didn’t even sniff the type of recruits he’ll attract at Michigan. And, it seems like he has already figured that out. He added five 4-star players and two late-bloomers who are expected to make major contributions at Michigan. Of the seven recruits Rodriguez has landed thus far, all are from Ohio, Florida, or Texas. Michigan only landed three players from those states last season. Rodriguez more than doubled that in one month’s work. In fact, Michigan hadn’t had more than five players from those states in any recruiting class since at least 2002 (Rivals only lists archives since 2002). Michigan has built its program over the last few decades by recruiting nationally. There were concerns that Rodriguez may not be able to recruit on a national-scale in the same way Carr was able to. Rodriguez’s early success should quash such speculation. More importantly, Rodriguez’s successful ventures into those states on such short notice may be a sign that Michigan is headed for even better recruiting classes than Michigan had been accustomed to under Carr.
I am not a big fan of de-commitments for a slew of reasons. A recruit should not declare his commitment unless he is willing to follow through on it. I understand that teenagers are fickle but that doesn’t mean it’s OK to lie. Clearly, this opens the door for the inevitable, “coaches lie too” spiel. That’s a different argument all together. When coaches leave, recruits should be allowed to transfer or de-commit without penalty. For everyone else, an “official” verbal commitment should be as binding as a written commitment. Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, Michigan must lead the nation in de-commitment margin over the last few years. Sure, other schools lose de-commitments but they also get some as well. Michigan seemingly only loses them. That was until Rodriguez took over. In a total reversal of Michigan’s recent fortune, Rodriguez landed three de-commitments (one each from Penn St., Florida, and Purdue) on signing day alone. At the risk of making too much out of one recruiting class, it seemed as though recruits under Lloyd Carr who were otherwise interested in Michigan sought out reasons not to go to Michigan. It seems like the opposite is true under Rodriguez. Recruits who otherwise weren’t as interested in Michigan are seeking out reasons to come to Michigan. As good of a recruiter as Carr was, it seemed like big-time recruits were drawn to other big schools with more dynamic coaching staffs and schemes. Carr’s personality and Michigan’s tradition was always enough to build a solid recruiting class. Now that Michigan can boast a dynamic coaching staff and a state-of-the-art scheme, I think Michigan will be able to tap into a caliber of player that previously ignored Michigan’s not-so-flashy program.
Michigan has underachieved in the past because of coaching. Rodriguez was going to change that regardless of the level of talent. He proved at West Virginia that he didn’t even need Michigan St.’s talent level to build a powerhouse. Now that I’ve seen what Rodriguez can do on the recruiting-front, I’m more excited about Michigan football than I have ever been. I’m even considering giving up electricity for season-tickets. Electricity is in the lead right now but season-tickets are gaining-ground fast. If you don’t see a post from me by next week some time, then you’ll know my decision. Anyways, I believe Michigan football is about to embark on a trip to its apex. For all the success Michigan has had post-Bo—and maybe even during Bo—I’m not sure that it ever reached its potential. With each passing day, there is more evidence to suggest that is going to change. To recap, Rodriguez appears to be a kick-ass recruiter.
There is no question that Rodriguez was brought to Michigan to catch up to Ohio St. Everything Jim Tressel said at halftime of the infamous Ohio St. basketball game seven years ago also applies to Rodriguez even if he didn’t actually say it. Bringing Michigan’s scheme and conditioning program into the 21st century is just one step in making that happen. The other is recruiting which almost always begins with battling Ohio St. for Ohio-recruits. Michigan didn’t land a single recruit from Ohio in 2007. The state of Ohio has one of the richest crops of high school football talent in the country in any given year (Ohio had at least 50 3-star or better recruits in the state this year. Michigan had 23). Getting shutout in Ohio is a disaster any way you put it. Although there are a number of impressive facts about Michigan’s Pryor-less recruiting class, the most impressive, in my opinion, is the way Rodriguez was able to attack the state of Ohio in just a few weeks. All told, Michigan signed seven players from Ohio. Carr had reeled in three before he retired and Rodriguez added four more. Of the top 17 players in Ohio, Michigan signed six. Ohio St. signed five. Last year, Ohio St. signed eight and Michigan signed zero. That is a huge one-year turnaround. Remember, the Ohio-recruiting scene isn’t anything like Michigan’s. It might sound impressive for Michigan St. to boast that it signed 11 of the top 26 recruits in the state of Michigan while Michigan only signed five. The difference is that Michigan doesn’t recruit players outside of the top ten in its own state. Michigan St. can pretty much have anyone it wants at that point. Ohio St. recruits players even outside of the top 50 in the state of Ohio. For Michigan to come in and grab seven Ohio players—six of the top 17—is a huge momentum-changer in Michigan’s efforts to recruit Ohio.
Rodriguez’s intention to sign a full 27-man class meant he had 8-10 scholarships to fill. Instead of haphazardly handing out scholarships to the same caliber player that he recruited at West Virginia or this guy, he took his time to target upper-echelon players and scored with a number of highly-touted recruits. Rodriguez—in the same way Luke Skywalker quickly picked up on the power of “The Force”—has quickly picked up on the far-reaching power of the block “M.” At West Virginia, Rodriguez didn’t even sniff the type of recruits he’ll attract at Michigan. And, it seems like he has already figured that out. He added five 4-star players and two late-bloomers who are expected to make major contributions at Michigan. Of the seven recruits Rodriguez has landed thus far, all are from Ohio, Florida, or Texas. Michigan only landed three players from those states last season. Rodriguez more than doubled that in one month’s work. In fact, Michigan hadn’t had more than five players from those states in any recruiting class since at least 2002 (Rivals only lists archives since 2002). Michigan has built its program over the last few decades by recruiting nationally. There were concerns that Rodriguez may not be able to recruit on a national-scale in the same way Carr was able to. Rodriguez’s early success should quash such speculation. More importantly, Rodriguez’s successful ventures into those states on such short notice may be a sign that Michigan is headed for even better recruiting classes than Michigan had been accustomed to under Carr.
I am not a big fan of de-commitments for a slew of reasons. A recruit should not declare his commitment unless he is willing to follow through on it. I understand that teenagers are fickle but that doesn’t mean it’s OK to lie. Clearly, this opens the door for the inevitable, “coaches lie too” spiel. That’s a different argument all together. When coaches leave, recruits should be allowed to transfer or de-commit without penalty. For everyone else, an “official” verbal commitment should be as binding as a written commitment. Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, Michigan must lead the nation in de-commitment margin over the last few years. Sure, other schools lose de-commitments but they also get some as well. Michigan seemingly only loses them. That was until Rodriguez took over. In a total reversal of Michigan’s recent fortune, Rodriguez landed three de-commitments (one each from Penn St., Florida, and Purdue) on signing day alone. At the risk of making too much out of one recruiting class, it seemed as though recruits under Lloyd Carr who were otherwise interested in Michigan sought out reasons not to go to Michigan. It seems like the opposite is true under Rodriguez. Recruits who otherwise weren’t as interested in Michigan are seeking out reasons to come to Michigan. As good of a recruiter as Carr was, it seemed like big-time recruits were drawn to other big schools with more dynamic coaching staffs and schemes. Carr’s personality and Michigan’s tradition was always enough to build a solid recruiting class. Now that Michigan can boast a dynamic coaching staff and a state-of-the-art scheme, I think Michigan will be able to tap into a caliber of player that previously ignored Michigan’s not-so-flashy program.
Michigan has underachieved in the past because of coaching. Rodriguez was going to change that regardless of the level of talent. He proved at West Virginia that he didn’t even need Michigan St.’s talent level to build a powerhouse. Now that I’ve seen what Rodriguez can do on the recruiting-front, I’m more excited about Michigan football than I have ever been. I’m even considering giving up electricity for season-tickets. Electricity is in the lead right now but season-tickets are gaining-ground fast. If you don’t see a post from me by next week some time, then you’ll know my decision. Anyways, I believe Michigan football is about to embark on a trip to its apex. For all the success Michigan has had post-Bo—and maybe even during Bo—I’m not sure that it ever reached its potential. With each passing day, there is more evidence to suggest that is going to change. To recap, Rodriguez appears to be a kick-ass recruiter.
Monday, February 04, 2008
NCAA Tournament Projections have nothing on the NY Giants
Where is the Bubble?
Five weeks remain until Selection Sunday and there doesn’t seem to be any sign of “the bubble.” If you take a look at the major conferences, you’ll find there is an obvious distinction between tournament-teams and everyone else. The only conference immune to this phenomenon is the ACC. However, the only reason the ACC has its own bubble is because the #1 conference in America has to have more than four teams make the tournament. I think it's law or something. So, teams like Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Maryland, and Virginia Tech get the “bubble treatment” even with less-than-stellar resumes. Their equivalents in other conferences—Oregon and Arizona St. in the Pac-10, Seton Hall and Villanova in the Big East, Texas Tech and Missouri in the Big XII, and Minnesota in the Big Ten are obvious omissions at this point. So, we’re left with an empty or—more appropriately—a non-existent bubble. Although, Syracuse may disagree. When you enter "NCAA Bubble" into Wikipedia's search engine, "Syracuse Orange men's basketball" is the only result with 100% relavence. That's no joke.
Here is a look at the giant-sized separation between the top-half and bottom-half of each conference:
Big East
The cutoff in the Big East clearly occurs after Syracuse and West Virginia. Seton Hall could work its way into a bubble-type position if it can take advantage of its fortuitous remaining schedule. However, every Big East-team after West Virginia is clearly out of the tournament at this point.
Pac 10
UCLA, Arizona, Washington St., USC, and Stanford are all easily in the tournament. The rest of the Pac 10 is clearly out of the tournament. Oregon and Arizona St. could get on a roll and change things but they are nowhere near the field right now.
Big Ten
The cutoff in the Big Ten is clearly between Ohio St. and Minnesota. Michigan St., Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Ohio St. are all in at this point. All other teams are hopeless.
SEC
There are teams in the SEC that can work their way out of the field like Mississippi St., Mississippi, and Arkansas. However, the cutoff in the SEC is obvious as well. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi St., and Florida are all in at this point. Nobody else even has a prayer.
Big XII
The Big XII is no different. Kansas, Kansas St., Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Baylor are all clearly in. No other team even has a chance.
ACC
As I mentioned before, the ACC has a “forced” bubble. Logic would suggest that a conference as highly-rated as the ACC would get more than four teams into the field. So, marginal teams that may not otherwise garner a look get a bump by playing in the ACC. Still, the separation in the ACC between the tourney teams and non-tourney teams appears to occur after Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, and NC State.
A-10
The same can be said for the A-10. Xavier, Dayton, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and St. Joe’s are clearly in the field at this point while no other team even has a chance.
Normally, this sort of thing would mean the bubble is saturated with mid-majors. However, just like in the major conferences, there is an obvious distinction between the tournament-bound mid-majors and everyone else. BYU and Gonzaga appear to be tournament-bound. The argument could be made that VCU, Kent St., Illinois St. and Houston are legitimate bubble teams because they sport decent resumes and would be the second teams out of their respective conferences. I'm not buying that argument at this point but it could be made nonetheless. The rest of the above-average mid-majors (Ohio, Creighton, Western Kentucky, San Diego St., Wright St., and New Mexico,) have resumes that stink like Matthew McConaughey. So, we’re left without a bubble which makes it significantly easier to project the field. Not having a bubble also makes people say dumb things in an attempt to create a bubble. The Big Ten Network's studio panel and its love for Iowa—11-12 record and 138 RPI and all—is an example of this.
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large NC State
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Arkansas
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large St. Joe's
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Arkansas and Syracuse
Out: Miami FL and Kent St.
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). Mississippi St.
Five weeks remain until Selection Sunday and there doesn’t seem to be any sign of “the bubble.” If you take a look at the major conferences, you’ll find there is an obvious distinction between tournament-teams and everyone else. The only conference immune to this phenomenon is the ACC. However, the only reason the ACC has its own bubble is because the #1 conference in America has to have more than four teams make the tournament. I think it's law or something. So, teams like Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Maryland, and Virginia Tech get the “bubble treatment” even with less-than-stellar resumes. Their equivalents in other conferences—Oregon and Arizona St. in the Pac-10, Seton Hall and Villanova in the Big East, Texas Tech and Missouri in the Big XII, and Minnesota in the Big Ten are obvious omissions at this point. So, we’re left with an empty or—more appropriately—a non-existent bubble. Although, Syracuse may disagree. When you enter "NCAA Bubble" into Wikipedia's search engine, "Syracuse Orange men's basketball" is the only result with 100% relavence. That's no joke.
Here is a look at the giant-sized separation between the top-half and bottom-half of each conference:
Big East
The cutoff in the Big East clearly occurs after Syracuse and West Virginia. Seton Hall could work its way into a bubble-type position if it can take advantage of its fortuitous remaining schedule. However, every Big East-team after West Virginia is clearly out of the tournament at this point.
Pac 10
UCLA, Arizona, Washington St., USC, and Stanford are all easily in the tournament. The rest of the Pac 10 is clearly out of the tournament. Oregon and Arizona St. could get on a roll and change things but they are nowhere near the field right now.
Big Ten
The cutoff in the Big Ten is clearly between Ohio St. and Minnesota. Michigan St., Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Ohio St. are all in at this point. All other teams are hopeless.
SEC
There are teams in the SEC that can work their way out of the field like Mississippi St., Mississippi, and Arkansas. However, the cutoff in the SEC is obvious as well. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi St., and Florida are all in at this point. Nobody else even has a prayer.
Big XII
The Big XII is no different. Kansas, Kansas St., Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Baylor are all clearly in. No other team even has a chance.
ACC
As I mentioned before, the ACC has a “forced” bubble. Logic would suggest that a conference as highly-rated as the ACC would get more than four teams into the field. So, marginal teams that may not otherwise garner a look get a bump by playing in the ACC. Still, the separation in the ACC between the tourney teams and non-tourney teams appears to occur after Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, and NC State.
A-10
The same can be said for the A-10. Xavier, Dayton, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and St. Joe’s are clearly in the field at this point while no other team even has a chance.
Normally, this sort of thing would mean the bubble is saturated with mid-majors. However, just like in the major conferences, there is an obvious distinction between the tournament-bound mid-majors and everyone else. BYU and Gonzaga appear to be tournament-bound. The argument could be made that VCU, Kent St., Illinois St. and Houston are legitimate bubble teams because they sport decent resumes and would be the second teams out of their respective conferences. I'm not buying that argument at this point but it could be made nonetheless. The rest of the above-average mid-majors (Ohio, Creighton, Western Kentucky, San Diego St., Wright St., and New Mexico,) have resumes that stink like Matthew McConaughey. So, we’re left without a bubble which makes it significantly easier to project the field. Not having a bubble also makes people say dumb things in an attempt to create a bubble. The Big Ten Network's studio panel and its love for Iowa—11-12 record and 138 RPI and all—is an example of this.
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large NC State
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Arkansas
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large St. Joe's
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Arkansas and Syracuse
Out: Miami FL and Kent St.
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). Mississippi St.
Mississippi St. has the worst RPI of any at-large team that I have projected into the tournament. The Bulldogs have one win in the RPI 80. In fact, there is only one thing keeping MSU in the field at this point and that’s the fact that it leads the SEC West with a 5-2 record. Mississippi St. has five games remaining against teams with an RPI worse than 90. If it wins all five of those games, it’ll finish with no worse than a 10-6 conference record. The home game against Arkansas on February 16 will be the biggest game of the season. If MSU wins that game, it’ll all but wrap up an at-large bid. Otherwise, it could be looking at a 10-6 conference record with one victory over a team in the RPI 80 for the season. That could be a problem.
2). Massachusetts
Resume
UMASS entered conference play with a pristine resume. Things have gotten ugly since then. A 3-4 start in conference was capped by a disastrous loss to St. Louis over the weekend (yes, the same St. Louis that scored 20 points against GW). Still, UMASS sports an RPI of 25 and quality wins against Dayton, Boston College, Houston and @ Syracuse. The conference slate eases up a bit as six of the next nine games are against teams with an RPI worse than 100.
3). NC State
NC State has the best chance of being the fourth team out of the ACC but I don’t think it’s anywhere near a likelihood of 50%. Va. Tech, Wake Forest, Miami (FL), Maryland, and NC State are going to have a round-robin elimination-style tournament over the next five weeks. I’m actually looking forward to it because the winner really could be any of the five. NC State gets the nod for now because it has the best resume of the bunch and the best RPI.
4). Syracuse
Pomeroy still predicts a .500 record for the Orangemen. I’m inclined to agree. The remaining slate is brutal with seven of its final eight games against teams with an RPI of 45 or better. The good news for Syracuse is that 4-4 in those eight games would get it done.
5). Arkansas
Arkansas bounced back nicely from its damaging back to back losses to S. Carolina and Georgia with a three-game winning streak. Winning the next three won’t be as easy. Arkansas has Mississippi, Tennessee, and Mississippi St. over the next seven days. Winning all three would make Arkansas a lock for the tourney. Losing all three would probably be a deal-breaker. Anything in between keeps Arkansas safely in the field.
First five “out” (no particular order)
1). Seton Hall
Resume
The Pirates are the only team in the Big East whose fate seems up in the air. They sport a 5-4 conference record but have only one win over the RPI 60. They have one of the easiest remaining conference schedules with four games against teams with an RPI of 126 or worse. However, the next four are against Notre Dame, Villanova, Marquette, and West Virgina. A split might get Seton Hall into the field.
2). Houston
Resume
I’m uncertain as to whether a 14-2 conference record would get Houston into the field. Conference-USA used to get multiple-bids every year but that was before Marquette, Cincinnati, DePaul, and Louisville jettisoned for the Big East. Houston would have a 25-5 record and an RPI around the 50s. An upset at Memphis on February 13 would seal the deal. Short of that, I think Houston is SOL.
3). VCU
I’m equally uncertain as to whether a 16-2 conference record would get VCU into the tournament. VCU has wins over Houston, Maryland, and Bradley and that’s about it. VCU doesn’t play a team with an RPI better than 100 for the rest of the season. So, I doubt it’ll be able to do much resume-building. Still, the Colonial has built a decent reputation over the last couple years. VCU has to feel a little better off than Houston with its head to head victory.
4). Kent St.
I’m going to predict that Kent St. will receive an at-large bid if it makes it to the MAC Championship game. The Golden Flashes have a number of quality wins against mid-majors including Cleveland St., Illinois St., and George Mason. I had them in the tournament last week but a loss at Toledo—a team as bad as Tom Smykowski’s “Jump to Conclusions” mat—was a killer.
5). Va. Tech
I can’t totally ignore a team from the ACC with an above .500 conference record. Va. Tech probably has the easiest remaining ACC schedule of the “bubble” teams. The Hokies don’t play Duke again and play North Carolina only once more. I think the parity in the ACC will be too much to overcome. Still, a 9-7 record would almost guarantee a bid.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Memphis
North Carolina
Duke
Kansas
#2 Seeds
UCLA
Tennessee
Georgetown
Michigan St.
Big Games this Week
Monday
Villanova @ St. Joe’s
Louisville @ Marquette
Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s
Tuesday
Va. Tech @ NC State
Drake @ Illinois St.
Florida @ Tennessee
Wednesday
Duke @ North Carolina
Texas @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech @ Baylor
Connecticut @ Syracuse
Notre Dame @ Seton Hall
Thursday
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh
Oregon @ Stanford
UCLA @ Washington St.
Friday
None
Saturday
Miami (FL) @ Va. Tech
NC State @ Maryland
Purdue @ Wisconsin
Baylor @ Kansas
Georgetown @ Louisville
Marquette @ Notre Dame
Seton Hall @ Villanova
USC @ Washington St.
Mississippi @ Arkansas
Sunday
St. Joe’s @ Xavier
Clemson @ North Carolina
Indiana @ Ohio St.
Arizona St. @ Arizona
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