Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Monday, October 29, 2007
Monday Poll Bashin'/Look who's ahead of Florida and USC
The ambiguity in college football keeps on truckin’ as three more top-ten teams lost along with #11, #14, and #15. Michigan—a team that started the season ranked in the top-five—didn’t even receive a single vote in any poll as recently as week three. Now, Michigan is all the way back to up 12th (up eight spots from last week) in the BCS standings ahead of Florida and USC without having beaten a single team ranked in either poll. In between Michigan’s fall and subsequent rise, there have been 22 teams ranked in the top ten. Just three weeks ago, Cal was ranked #2. Now, Cal isn’t ranked in either poll. Just two weeks ago, South Florida was ranked #2. Now, the Bulls aren’t ranked better than 20th in any poll. So many teams have been banished as afterthoughts only to return quickly and prominently like Georgia. Nobody knows who the best team is. The web of “who beat who” is so entangled that most attempts at rationalizing a top-25 become illogical very quickly.
Because the pollsters follow ridiculous “unwritten guidelines” on dropping teams after losses and bumping teams after wins regardless of the caliber, the polls are not capable of reflecting a true top 25 with so much mayhem going on. Nobody thinks Kansas and Hawaii would beat Florida but that’s what people are pretending to think if that makes sense. I fear that without polls, more than half of the hype in college football would vanish. However, the polls are idiotic. They should be disbanded.
Just when I think that the idiocy is dying down, the next poll comes out to prove me wrong…
Florida over Auburn
Unbelievably, the USA Today poll is immune from criticism on this one. The AP totally dropped the ball by ignoring the fact that Auburn beat Florida at Florida. They both have three losses. Auburn has the best win of the two teams. Tebow-mania has officially infected the polls.
Texas @ #12 in USA Today
Texas has no business being ranked 12th. I have to admit that it’s possible that the Longhorns are the 12th best team but there is absolutely no evidence suggesting that is true. Texas hasn’t beaten a team that received even a single vote in any poll this week. I thought Hawaii had that market cornered. Texas has played two teams that could even remotely be considered good. Not surprisingly, it lost both including a 20-point blowout loss to unranked Kansas St. The AP also has Texas too high at #14.
Hawaii @ #11 in USA Today
This is getting ridiculous. Hawaii hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record. Hawaii also hasn’t even played a team outside of the WAC, I-AA, and the Mountain West. Despite possibly the weakest schedule in NCAA history, Hawaii still needed overtime in two games to dispatch of terrible opponents. Just to give an example of what major conferences have done against Hawaii’s opponents, let’s look at the two teams Hawaii had to beat in overtime. Hawaii beat Louisiana Tech 45-44 in OT. Lousiana Tech lost 42-12 to Cal and 24-0 to Ole Miss. Hawaii also needed overtime to beat San Jose St. San Jose St. lost 45-3 to Arizona St., 34-14 to Kansas St., and 37-0 to Stanford. Please stop voting for Hawaii. You might as well vote for the Northern Iowa Panthers. They’re undefeated and haven’t beaten anyone either.
Va. Tech only drops 3
Virginia Tech was way overrated last week and it is absurd that the Hokies only dropped three spots after a miserable performance on Thursday night. If you didn’t watch the game, you probably think that a four-point loss to the #2 team in the country is a good showing. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. Virginia Tech has a terrible offense. BC played about as bad as a good team could possibly play. Plus, BC isn’t really the #2 team talent-wise. Virginia Tech has had two tests this year and has failed both. It lost by 41 to LSU and played lousy in a huge home game against BC. Until Va. Tech beats a team with a pulse, it shouldn’t be sniffing the top 15.
Auburn over S. Florida
Auburn has two losses. S. Florida has three losses. I’m not a big “records” guy but the polls love “records” which is the only thing that can explain Virginia’s presence in the top 25 over the last few weeks. S. Florida also beat Auburn at Auburn. So, why is Auburn ranked ahead of S. Florida again?
Because the pollsters follow ridiculous “unwritten guidelines” on dropping teams after losses and bumping teams after wins regardless of the caliber, the polls are not capable of reflecting a true top 25 with so much mayhem going on. Nobody thinks Kansas and Hawaii would beat Florida but that’s what people are pretending to think if that makes sense. I fear that without polls, more than half of the hype in college football would vanish. However, the polls are idiotic. They should be disbanded.
Just when I think that the idiocy is dying down, the next poll comes out to prove me wrong…
Florida over Auburn
Unbelievably, the USA Today poll is immune from criticism on this one. The AP totally dropped the ball by ignoring the fact that Auburn beat Florida at Florida. They both have three losses. Auburn has the best win of the two teams. Tebow-mania has officially infected the polls.
Texas @ #12 in USA Today
Texas has no business being ranked 12th. I have to admit that it’s possible that the Longhorns are the 12th best team but there is absolutely no evidence suggesting that is true. Texas hasn’t beaten a team that received even a single vote in any poll this week. I thought Hawaii had that market cornered. Texas has played two teams that could even remotely be considered good. Not surprisingly, it lost both including a 20-point blowout loss to unranked Kansas St. The AP also has Texas too high at #14.
Hawaii @ #11 in USA Today
This is getting ridiculous. Hawaii hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record. Hawaii also hasn’t even played a team outside of the WAC, I-AA, and the Mountain West. Despite possibly the weakest schedule in NCAA history, Hawaii still needed overtime in two games to dispatch of terrible opponents. Just to give an example of what major conferences have done against Hawaii’s opponents, let’s look at the two teams Hawaii had to beat in overtime. Hawaii beat Louisiana Tech 45-44 in OT. Lousiana Tech lost 42-12 to Cal and 24-0 to Ole Miss. Hawaii also needed overtime to beat San Jose St. San Jose St. lost 45-3 to Arizona St., 34-14 to Kansas St., and 37-0 to Stanford. Please stop voting for Hawaii. You might as well vote for the Northern Iowa Panthers. They’re undefeated and haven’t beaten anyone either.
Va. Tech only drops 3
Virginia Tech was way overrated last week and it is absurd that the Hokies only dropped three spots after a miserable performance on Thursday night. If you didn’t watch the game, you probably think that a four-point loss to the #2 team in the country is a good showing. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. Virginia Tech has a terrible offense. BC played about as bad as a good team could possibly play. Plus, BC isn’t really the #2 team talent-wise. Virginia Tech has had two tests this year and has failed both. It lost by 41 to LSU and played lousy in a huge home game against BC. Until Va. Tech beats a team with a pulse, it shouldn’t be sniffing the top 15.
Auburn over S. Florida
Auburn has two losses. S. Florida has three losses. I’m not a big “records” guy but the polls love “records” which is the only thing that can explain Virginia’s presence in the top 25 over the last few weeks. S. Florida also beat Auburn at Auburn. So, why is Auburn ranked ahead of S. Florida again?
Thursday, October 25, 2007
A-Rod in Detroit
With the World Series under way, we are just a few weeks from the beginning of the A-Rod sweepstakes. The courtship of A-Rod will be one of the most highly publicized events in sports history. I’m getting sick just thinking about the daily coverage that we’ll have to endure. The negotiations will likely end with the richest player contract ever awarded in American sports history. Who honestly thought we’d see this again after the public outcry the last time a team handed out the richest contract in American sports history to A-Rod?
Nonetheless, the expectations are that A-Rod’s annual salary will reach $30 million if not more. There will be a handful of intriguing subplots. Boston could get involved which would add even more fuel to the Boston/NewYork drama. Boston thought it had A-Rod in 2003 when it was prepared to ship Manny Ramirez to the Rangers but the trade was vetoed by the players union. When A-Rod was finally traded to the Yankees, he said, “I don't really care what Red Sox fans are thinking." I wonder if Red Sox fans will remember that. The Yankees have publicly stated that they will not get into a bidding war. It’ll be interesting to see if they stand by that stance. It’ll also be interesting to see if the owners involved in the bidding have any spines at all when dealing with Scott Boras. There is always someone (see; the Texas Rangers) who is willing to go for broke. It would be fascinating to see the owners refuse to break the bank. That’s about as likely as the Royals getting involved in the bidding, though.
The likelihood of A-Rod landing in Detroit hovers right around 0%. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t a gazillion questions Tigers fans around the country are asking each other. Here are just a few of the questions the A-Rod debate raises…
Would A-Rod ever come to Detroit?
No. There are three ways a superstar finds himself in Detroit. 1). He is drafted by Detroit. 2). He is injured and the Tigers overpay. 3). He is old and the Tigers overpay. A-Rod doesn’t fit into any of those categories. That pretty much makes the rest of this post irrelevant. However, I promised question(s)...
Would the Tigers be better with A-Rod?
I think most people would be surprised at how many fans actually think the Tigers would be worse off with A-Rod for various bum/choker related reasons. The truth is that all of those reasons are ridiculous. The Tigers would clearly be better with A-Rod. Since Carlos Guillen is moving to first-base, A-Rod would essentially be replacing Sean Casey in the lineup. The difference between A-Rod and Sean Casey is like the difference between me two minutes before a pizza buffet and two minutes after a pizza buffet. A middle-of-the order threesome of Magglio Ordonez/Alex Rodriguez/Gary Sheffield would be one of the greatest in MLB history. The Tigers almost certainly would have made the playoffs with an additional 54 home-runs and 156 RBIs despite the injuries and slumps that plagued their season.
Can the Tigers win by paying one player over 30% of the total payroll?
Dave Dombrowski referenced this statistic when asked recently about whether the Tigers would pursue A-Rod in the off-season. Dombrowski is a smart guy who has brilliantly reshaped the franchise. Although, I am surprised that he would buy into that sort of thinking. The 30% stat is mostly an empty statistic in baseball where there is no salary cap. In football—where there is a salary cap—it makes sense to want to avoid paying one player a certain amount of the payroll. In baseball—especially in the larger markets—that statistic is irrelevant. Mike Ilitch can shell out as much money as he wants so it doesn’t matter how much money one player makes. It matters how much he is willing to spend. If Ilitch were to pay A-Rod 30% of a 100-million payroll, then the Tigers could not realistically win in the near future. It would require dumping close to $30 million in salary from the existing team which would cripple the franchise. However, if he were to pay A-Rod 30% of a $125 million payroll, then the Tigers would be the best team in baseball next season. The 30% number isn’t important. The payroll is. Also, the Colorado Rockies are in the World Series as I type this and Todd Helton currently takes up 30.5% of the payroll. There is no Salary God who prevents teams with a player making 30% of the payroll from winning.
Would Dombrowski have to gut the team to afford A-Rod?
Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press suggests that the Tigers would have to say goodbye to Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco, Jeremy Bonderman, and Brandon Inge to bring in A-Rod. Again, since there is no salary cap in baseball, the Tigers wouldn’t have to say goodbye to anyone necessarily. It all depends on what Mike Ilitch is willing to pay. I don’t know the answer to this and I don’t think Jon Paul Morosi does either. The reality is that if Ilitch isn’t willing to add to the payroll, then A-Rod won’t be coming to Detroit anyways. Giving up Guillen, Polanco, Bonderman and Inge isn’t even a possibility. It’s also important to note that adding A-Rod would be a move geared for the long term when many of the current Tigers won’t even be on the roster. Next season, Pudge and his $13 come off the books. Two years from now, Gary Sheffield and his $14 million come off the books. The Tigers have a bevy of young, relatively inexpensive talent under contract. Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, Andrew Miller, Jair Jurrjens, Rick Porcello, and Cameron Maybin are going to be the face of the franchise five years from now. Placido Polanco, Brandon Inge, and Curtis Granderson will all be affordable for the foreseeable future. If Ilitch is willing to add to the payroll temporarily, the Tigers are in a perfect position to have a player of A-Rod’s caliber—and salary—mesh with a deep, relatively inexpensive core. Only Ilitch knows his limits. If we knew his payroll limit was not a cent higher than $100 million, then we could all save ourselves another sentence on the A-Rod topic.
Are A-Rod’s playoff struggles valid concerns?
No. Some—not all—media people love to harp on this sort of thing. Just last year the Red Wings re-signed Pavel Datsyuk which prompted major criticism from much of the Detroit media because of his underwhelming playoff performances. Yep, Datsyuk’s reputation was all but sealed after just 21 playoff games. The rest—as we know—is history as Datsyuk tore up the first three rounds of the playoffs just a couple months later netting 16 points in 18 games. The Yankees—as a team—have struggled mightily in the playoffs over the last three seasons. The New York-experience has humbled the careers of many superstars such as Randy Johnson, Jason Giambi, Kevin Brown, and Mike Mussina just to name a few. Alex Rodriguez has flourished in New York winning two MVPs in just four years (The ’07 MVP is a mere formality). Just three years ago, he was considered an excellent playoff performer having amassed a .330 batting average in 103 postseason at-bats. A-Rod is not damned to be a playoff-choker for the rest of his career.
Should the Tigers make a play for A-Rod?
Yes with the caveat the Ilitch be willing to add enough to the payroll where the Tigers would keep A-Rod and their core. A-Rod—barring injury—would keep Detroit on the forefront of the baseball world for ten more years at a minimum. There is a good chance that he’ll break the all-time records for home runs, RBIs, and hits among others. Think Bonds’ home-run chase times three without all of the negativity. It will be huge. Despite the Tigers recent resurgence, the Red Sox and Yankees are still the center of the baseball universe. A-Rod would change that immediately. His presence would have a far-reaching impact on everything from attracting free-agents to increasing the franchise’s value. I’ve always felt that A-Rod is as much a “numbers” guy as he is a “Championship” guy. I just get the feeling that he is well aware of the pace that he is on and the records he could break. He is in tremendous shape. When you put those two things together, A-Rod could easily be playing baseball for 14 more years.
Would it be disappointing if the Tigers don’t sign—or even attempt to sign—A-Rod?
Well, since there’s probably less than a 1% chance the Tigers actually sign or even go after him, my answer is no. The Tigers are in excellent shape as they stand right now. They have more youthful talent than any other organization in baseball. The core is young and—most importantly—wants to be in Detroit. The Tigers should be even better next season when injuries probably won’t have the same factor and the lineup is more potent with the expected return to health of Gary Sheffield and the hopeful addition of a productive shortstop such as Edgar Renteria. The Tigers don’t need A-Rod. If Ilitch has a cap limit that makes signing A-Rod impossible, then it’s no big deal. However, if he has the money, he should give it a shot. I would certainly not want Ilitch and Dombrowski to fall under the Boras spell and give into all of the inevitably ridiculous demands he will ask for. There is a fine line between being the highest bidder and outbidding yourself. Dombrowski knows that line which makes the Tigers unlikely suitors. Some team will come along ala the Texas Rangers in 2000 and bite hard on the Boras sell. The only chance the Tigers really have is if every team backs off on talks of $30 million. The problem then would be that the Yankees would likely be back in the picture for an extension at that point. It would take the perfect storm of relative league-wide disinterest, the Tigers willingness to pay between $28 and $30 million, and a willingness by A-Rod to play in Detroit. In other words, start thinking about Raul Ibanez and Edgar Renteria.
Will the Tigers even make an official offer?
I highly doubt it. Anaheim won’t win until it gets Vlad some help. The New York teams have a ton of money to spend. Boston will surely get involved. The Tigers may stick around just long enough to check out the competition before politely saying, “not interested.” However, one question that I would love to ask Mike Ilitch is how much he would have paid to guarantee a playoff bid in 2007. More specifically, if he were told by an all-knowing oracle before the ’07 season that the Tigers would definitely not make the playoffs but he could change all that for an additional $30 million, would he have paid it? I really have no idea how much simply making the playoffs is worth to an owner. Knowing that would help many of us understand how much a player of A-Rod’s caliber is worth.
Nonetheless, the expectations are that A-Rod’s annual salary will reach $30 million if not more. There will be a handful of intriguing subplots. Boston could get involved which would add even more fuel to the Boston/NewYork drama. Boston thought it had A-Rod in 2003 when it was prepared to ship Manny Ramirez to the Rangers but the trade was vetoed by the players union. When A-Rod was finally traded to the Yankees, he said, “I don't really care what Red Sox fans are thinking." I wonder if Red Sox fans will remember that. The Yankees have publicly stated that they will not get into a bidding war. It’ll be interesting to see if they stand by that stance. It’ll also be interesting to see if the owners involved in the bidding have any spines at all when dealing with Scott Boras. There is always someone (see; the Texas Rangers) who is willing to go for broke. It would be fascinating to see the owners refuse to break the bank. That’s about as likely as the Royals getting involved in the bidding, though.
The likelihood of A-Rod landing in Detroit hovers right around 0%. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t a gazillion questions Tigers fans around the country are asking each other. Here are just a few of the questions the A-Rod debate raises…
Would A-Rod ever come to Detroit?
No. There are three ways a superstar finds himself in Detroit. 1). He is drafted by Detroit. 2). He is injured and the Tigers overpay. 3). He is old and the Tigers overpay. A-Rod doesn’t fit into any of those categories. That pretty much makes the rest of this post irrelevant. However, I promised question(s)...
Would the Tigers be better with A-Rod?
I think most people would be surprised at how many fans actually think the Tigers would be worse off with A-Rod for various bum/choker related reasons. The truth is that all of those reasons are ridiculous. The Tigers would clearly be better with A-Rod. Since Carlos Guillen is moving to first-base, A-Rod would essentially be replacing Sean Casey in the lineup. The difference between A-Rod and Sean Casey is like the difference between me two minutes before a pizza buffet and two minutes after a pizza buffet. A middle-of-the order threesome of Magglio Ordonez/Alex Rodriguez/Gary Sheffield would be one of the greatest in MLB history. The Tigers almost certainly would have made the playoffs with an additional 54 home-runs and 156 RBIs despite the injuries and slumps that plagued their season.
Can the Tigers win by paying one player over 30% of the total payroll?
Dave Dombrowski referenced this statistic when asked recently about whether the Tigers would pursue A-Rod in the off-season. Dombrowski is a smart guy who has brilliantly reshaped the franchise. Although, I am surprised that he would buy into that sort of thinking. The 30% stat is mostly an empty statistic in baseball where there is no salary cap. In football—where there is a salary cap—it makes sense to want to avoid paying one player a certain amount of the payroll. In baseball—especially in the larger markets—that statistic is irrelevant. Mike Ilitch can shell out as much money as he wants so it doesn’t matter how much money one player makes. It matters how much he is willing to spend. If Ilitch were to pay A-Rod 30% of a 100-million payroll, then the Tigers could not realistically win in the near future. It would require dumping close to $30 million in salary from the existing team which would cripple the franchise. However, if he were to pay A-Rod 30% of a $125 million payroll, then the Tigers would be the best team in baseball next season. The 30% number isn’t important. The payroll is. Also, the Colorado Rockies are in the World Series as I type this and Todd Helton currently takes up 30.5% of the payroll. There is no Salary God who prevents teams with a player making 30% of the payroll from winning.
Would Dombrowski have to gut the team to afford A-Rod?
Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press suggests that the Tigers would have to say goodbye to Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco, Jeremy Bonderman, and Brandon Inge to bring in A-Rod. Again, since there is no salary cap in baseball, the Tigers wouldn’t have to say goodbye to anyone necessarily. It all depends on what Mike Ilitch is willing to pay. I don’t know the answer to this and I don’t think Jon Paul Morosi does either. The reality is that if Ilitch isn’t willing to add to the payroll, then A-Rod won’t be coming to Detroit anyways. Giving up Guillen, Polanco, Bonderman and Inge isn’t even a possibility. It’s also important to note that adding A-Rod would be a move geared for the long term when many of the current Tigers won’t even be on the roster. Next season, Pudge and his $13 come off the books. Two years from now, Gary Sheffield and his $14 million come off the books. The Tigers have a bevy of young, relatively inexpensive talent under contract. Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, Andrew Miller, Jair Jurrjens, Rick Porcello, and Cameron Maybin are going to be the face of the franchise five years from now. Placido Polanco, Brandon Inge, and Curtis Granderson will all be affordable for the foreseeable future. If Ilitch is willing to add to the payroll temporarily, the Tigers are in a perfect position to have a player of A-Rod’s caliber—and salary—mesh with a deep, relatively inexpensive core. Only Ilitch knows his limits. If we knew his payroll limit was not a cent higher than $100 million, then we could all save ourselves another sentence on the A-Rod topic.
Are A-Rod’s playoff struggles valid concerns?
No. Some—not all—media people love to harp on this sort of thing. Just last year the Red Wings re-signed Pavel Datsyuk which prompted major criticism from much of the Detroit media because of his underwhelming playoff performances. Yep, Datsyuk’s reputation was all but sealed after just 21 playoff games. The rest—as we know—is history as Datsyuk tore up the first three rounds of the playoffs just a couple months later netting 16 points in 18 games. The Yankees—as a team—have struggled mightily in the playoffs over the last three seasons. The New York-experience has humbled the careers of many superstars such as Randy Johnson, Jason Giambi, Kevin Brown, and Mike Mussina just to name a few. Alex Rodriguez has flourished in New York winning two MVPs in just four years (The ’07 MVP is a mere formality). Just three years ago, he was considered an excellent playoff performer having amassed a .330 batting average in 103 postseason at-bats. A-Rod is not damned to be a playoff-choker for the rest of his career.
Should the Tigers make a play for A-Rod?
Yes with the caveat the Ilitch be willing to add enough to the payroll where the Tigers would keep A-Rod and their core. A-Rod—barring injury—would keep Detroit on the forefront of the baseball world for ten more years at a minimum. There is a good chance that he’ll break the all-time records for home runs, RBIs, and hits among others. Think Bonds’ home-run chase times three without all of the negativity. It will be huge. Despite the Tigers recent resurgence, the Red Sox and Yankees are still the center of the baseball universe. A-Rod would change that immediately. His presence would have a far-reaching impact on everything from attracting free-agents to increasing the franchise’s value. I’ve always felt that A-Rod is as much a “numbers” guy as he is a “Championship” guy. I just get the feeling that he is well aware of the pace that he is on and the records he could break. He is in tremendous shape. When you put those two things together, A-Rod could easily be playing baseball for 14 more years.
Would it be disappointing if the Tigers don’t sign—or even attempt to sign—A-Rod?
Well, since there’s probably less than a 1% chance the Tigers actually sign or even go after him, my answer is no. The Tigers are in excellent shape as they stand right now. They have more youthful talent than any other organization in baseball. The core is young and—most importantly—wants to be in Detroit. The Tigers should be even better next season when injuries probably won’t have the same factor and the lineup is more potent with the expected return to health of Gary Sheffield and the hopeful addition of a productive shortstop such as Edgar Renteria. The Tigers don’t need A-Rod. If Ilitch has a cap limit that makes signing A-Rod impossible, then it’s no big deal. However, if he has the money, he should give it a shot. I would certainly not want Ilitch and Dombrowski to fall under the Boras spell and give into all of the inevitably ridiculous demands he will ask for. There is a fine line between being the highest bidder and outbidding yourself. Dombrowski knows that line which makes the Tigers unlikely suitors. Some team will come along ala the Texas Rangers in 2000 and bite hard on the Boras sell. The only chance the Tigers really have is if every team backs off on talks of $30 million. The problem then would be that the Yankees would likely be back in the picture for an extension at that point. It would take the perfect storm of relative league-wide disinterest, the Tigers willingness to pay between $28 and $30 million, and a willingness by A-Rod to play in Detroit. In other words, start thinking about Raul Ibanez and Edgar Renteria.
Will the Tigers even make an official offer?
I highly doubt it. Anaheim won’t win until it gets Vlad some help. The New York teams have a ton of money to spend. Boston will surely get involved. The Tigers may stick around just long enough to check out the competition before politely saying, “not interested.” However, one question that I would love to ask Mike Ilitch is how much he would have paid to guarantee a playoff bid in 2007. More specifically, if he were told by an all-knowing oracle before the ’07 season that the Tigers would definitely not make the playoffs but he could change all that for an additional $30 million, would he have paid it? I really have no idea how much simply making the playoffs is worth to an owner. Knowing that would help many of us understand how much a player of A-Rod’s caliber is worth.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Monday Poll Bashin'/Almost back to normal
The craziness keeps on coming. Four more top-ten teams lost this week. Things have been so whacky that the polls are slowly starting to resemble the pre-season polls with LSU, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, USC, and Florida all back in the top ten. It’s almost like nothing happened other than Michigan, Texas, and Louisville not living up to expectations; and even Michigan is slowly working its way back to the top ten. The rest of the polls are just a big mess with a bevy of teams ranked higher than they should be including Hawaii and Texas. There are also a few instances of teams being ranked behind teams they beat with a similar resume. However, this becomes increasingly less annoying as the season moves along. My biggest criticism for this comes early in the season when we don’t have too many games to refer to. Plus, with so many teams playing each other, it’s impossible to keep everything straight. For instance, Kentucky beat LSU who beat S. Carolina who beat Kentucky. Also, the location plays a tremendous part in the outcome of a game. For instance, it’s not fair to punish Kentucky for having to play at S. Carolina. Good teams are supposed to win at home and that’s what S. Carolina did. Had the roles been reversed, Kentucky may very well have won. You probably won’t see too many vehement complaints from here on out about this sort of thing. I’ll continue to mention it when I would rank teams differently. With each passing week, the picture becomes murkier. Differences become less obvious. By the end of the season, you can make just about any argument you want to make. But, there are still things that just shouldn’t be in the polls.
Before I get into the polls, here are five things on my mind…
1). I’m not sure what it is exactly but—with each passing year—I become less and less of a fan of Kirk Herbstreit. He used to be my favorite college football personality. Now, he’s saying things like, “the BCS system is great for college football” and “a playoff is not the answer.” He never fails to suggest that if anything needs to be tweaked to the current system, it’s the addition of a Plus-1 game. I’m not sure if Herbstreit realizes that a Plus-1 game creates a four-team playoff. That faux pas aside, Herbstreit’s contention that the regular season is a playoff is questionable at best. First, in a crazy year like the one we’re seeing right now, the regular season will have sorted out nothing. Nobody knows who the best teams are now, and nobody will know four weeks from now. Yet, two teams will be arbitrarily put into a Championship game based on uncertainty. There will be a number of one-loss teams left out of the Championship. How is that a fair system? People like Herbstreit—for whatever reasons—fail to realize that an eight or sixteen team playoff would create just as much excitement in the “regular season” as teams vie for those coveted playoff spots. Nobody is ever guaranteed of anything in college football. Just look at Cal. Two weeks ago, the Bears were ranked #2. Now, they’re #18. No matter what sort of Championship you have, the fact that teams only play 12 games a year will guarantee that each regular season game crucial is crucial. If Herbstreit insists on ignoring the unparalled excitement that an 8 or a 16-team playoff would create, then he can at least stop saying a playoff is not the answer when he repeatedly suggests that a Plus-1—or a four team playoff—is the answer.
2). What was up with the way Tommy Tuberville managed the clock when LSU was bleeding it for the game-winning score? Auburn had two timeouts left with more than 35 seconds left. LSU was in field goal range. Those timeouts would have forced LSU to kick the field goal with enough time remaining for Auburn to possibly get into field goal range. Instead, Tuberville decided to take his chances with a 40-yard field-goal attempt. That’s just terrible clock management. Had Tuberville taken those timeouts, there is very little chance that LSU would have taken a shot in the end zone like it did to end the game.
3). I don’t have anything against the Heisman Trophy itself but I hate the process. Andre Ware broke down his Heisman candidates before the Kentucky/Florida game and had Andre Woodson and Tim Tebow near the top. He commented that the loser of that game would drop out of the running. So, 415 yards and 5 TD passes doesn’t do anything for you? If this sort of thinking was just confined to Andre Ware’s head, then I wouldn’t have a problem with it. But, it’s not. Most voters think this way. I won’t even get into the fact that a defensive player can’t win the award more than once ever.
4). I think Navy is the quasi-mid-point of all college football teams. If Navy beats you, then you’re bad. If you beat Navy then you’re good. Consider that since 2003, the combined record of the teams Navy has beaten is 107-284 for a dreadful winning percentage of .273. Navy’s four wins over I-AA opponents weren’t even included in that total. Conversely, the combined winning percentage of the teams Navy has lost to is 120-73 for a winning percentage of .621. So, if you want to know if you have a good team or a bad team, schedule Navy.
5). The Big Ten has taken a lot of flack this season for being mediocre. I can’t say that the criticism is undeserved. Ohio St. is the only elite team in the conference. There is still only one team ranked from the Big Ten in the top 20. However, be prepared to see nine Big Ten teams in bowl games. The conference already has six teams that are bowl eligible and three more with five wins. Northwestern would already be bowl eligible if it just would have beaten Duke.
Here are the remaining schedules for the three teams that need one win for bowl eligibility:
Michigan St.
@ Iowa
Michigan
@ Purdue
Penn St.
Indiana
@ Wisconsin
Ball St.
@ Northwestern
Purdue
Northwestern
@ Purdue
Iowa
Indiana
@ Illinois
Anyhow, on to the complaints…
Kentucky over S. Carolina
I’m not too agitated about this. Kentucky beat LSU. S. Carolina didn’t. Although, Kentucky got to play LSU at home and S. Carolina didn’t. Kentucky lost to two really good teams. S. Carolina lost to one really good team and one average team. S. Carolina beat Kentucky which should be the tiebreaker. I realize that S. Carolina got to play the game at home but after the game, I was convinced that S. Carolina was the better team. Different teams respond to road environments differently so maybe Kentucky just never got it together because of the hostile Columbia-environment. However, I would rank S. Carolina ahead of Kentucky because it looked like the better team by a decent margin. The USA Today had the same result.
The “lose at LSU and drop” theorem
I hate dropping teams for any loss no matter how impressive. Losses can be impressive. Auburn led LSU for the majority of its game losing with: 01 left on the clock. If LSU is the #3 team in the country, then Auburn has no business dropping. A five-spot plunge isn’t the end of the world. Also, Auburn is the only team in the polls with three losses. I just think the pollsters need to be able to look beyond the records. Auburn dropping becomes even more ridiculous since it will undoubtedly climb in the polls after beating Ole Miss and Tennessee Tech in the next two weeks. The USA Today did the same thing.
Hawaii
Hawaii climbed one-spot in the AP poll to #16. Brent Musberger says some dumb things but one of the dumbest came during the Michigan/Illinois telecast on Saturday. He defended Hawaii’s atrocious resume by saying “a win is a win.” He also said that as long as Hawaii keeps winning, it should get to play in a BCS game despite playing possibly the easiest schedule in the history of modern-day college football. Any average BCS school like Purdue, Maryland, or Oklahoma St. would go undefeated with Hawaii’s schedule. The USA Today poll has Hawaii inexplicably ranked at #14. I would expect every top-25 team to beat Hawaii.
Va. Tech at #8
Va. Tech has played one team that is ranked right now and it lost by 41. How is that worthy of the #8 ranking? And it’s not just that Va. Tech hasn’t been playing ranked teams. They have been playing awful teams. The Hokies claim the following wins; E. Carolina, Ohio, William & Mary, UNC, Duke, and Clemson. Obviously, Clemson is not a bad win but the rest are atrocious. There is no reason for Va. Tech to be ranked ahead of Florida and USC among others. The USA Today has Va. Tech at #9.
S. Florida dropping nine spots
Dropping S. Florida nine spots for losing by three points, on the road, against a top-25 team is ridiculous. Nobody wanted S. Florida ranked that high to begin with. This loss just gave every pollster an excuse to jettison them out of the top-ten. USC only dropped eights spots after losing to a 41-point underdog at home. The USA Today dropped S. Florida nine spots as well.
S. Florida over West Virginia
This is a duplicate of the Kentucky/S. Carolina situation. I don’t think it’s idiotic to rank WVU ahead of S. Florida. S. Florida had the advantage of playing the game at home. However, S. Florida was leading 21-3 in the 3rd quarter and 21-6 late in the game. It was never in danger of losing. It was an ugly game with 10 total turnovers. Neither team played great but that is how S. Florida plays. I left that game thinking that S. Florida was the better team. Plus, S. Florida just won at West Virginia at the end of last season. This win wasn’t a fluke. S. Florida should still be ranked ahead of West Virginia at this point. The USA Today again has the same thing.
Virginia
There is no doubt in my mind that Virginia is not a top-25 team. I have been agitated at the fact that both polls have ranked Virginia for the last couple weeks. However, I think I have been looking at this all wrong. I actually think the polls have shown some restraint in keeping Virginia out of the top 20 despite its 7-1 record. The polls usually fall for the teams with the inflated records (i.e. Hawaii). So, I guess this is more of a compliment than a criticism. Nevertheless, Virginia deserves to be ranked as much as Hawaii does.
Texas over Cal (among others)
Texas has no business being ranked ahead of Cal. Texas hasn’t beaten a ranked team and its five wins are over teams with a combined record of 16-29. They boast wins over the following powerhouses; Arkansas St., TCU, UCF, Rice, Iowa St., and Baylor. Cal, on the other hand has beaten # 5 Oregon and a Tennessee team that is much better than any team Texas has beaten. There is a boatload of teams that Texas shouldn’t be ranked ahead of but Cal seems the most obvious.
Before I get into the polls, here are five things on my mind…
1). I’m not sure what it is exactly but—with each passing year—I become less and less of a fan of Kirk Herbstreit. He used to be my favorite college football personality. Now, he’s saying things like, “the BCS system is great for college football” and “a playoff is not the answer.” He never fails to suggest that if anything needs to be tweaked to the current system, it’s the addition of a Plus-1 game. I’m not sure if Herbstreit realizes that a Plus-1 game creates a four-team playoff. That faux pas aside, Herbstreit’s contention that the regular season is a playoff is questionable at best. First, in a crazy year like the one we’re seeing right now, the regular season will have sorted out nothing. Nobody knows who the best teams are now, and nobody will know four weeks from now. Yet, two teams will be arbitrarily put into a Championship game based on uncertainty. There will be a number of one-loss teams left out of the Championship. How is that a fair system? People like Herbstreit—for whatever reasons—fail to realize that an eight or sixteen team playoff would create just as much excitement in the “regular season” as teams vie for those coveted playoff spots. Nobody is ever guaranteed of anything in college football. Just look at Cal. Two weeks ago, the Bears were ranked #2. Now, they’re #18. No matter what sort of Championship you have, the fact that teams only play 12 games a year will guarantee that each regular season game crucial is crucial. If Herbstreit insists on ignoring the unparalled excitement that an 8 or a 16-team playoff would create, then he can at least stop saying a playoff is not the answer when he repeatedly suggests that a Plus-1—or a four team playoff—is the answer.
2). What was up with the way Tommy Tuberville managed the clock when LSU was bleeding it for the game-winning score? Auburn had two timeouts left with more than 35 seconds left. LSU was in field goal range. Those timeouts would have forced LSU to kick the field goal with enough time remaining for Auburn to possibly get into field goal range. Instead, Tuberville decided to take his chances with a 40-yard field-goal attempt. That’s just terrible clock management. Had Tuberville taken those timeouts, there is very little chance that LSU would have taken a shot in the end zone like it did to end the game.
3). I don’t have anything against the Heisman Trophy itself but I hate the process. Andre Ware broke down his Heisman candidates before the Kentucky/Florida game and had Andre Woodson and Tim Tebow near the top. He commented that the loser of that game would drop out of the running. So, 415 yards and 5 TD passes doesn’t do anything for you? If this sort of thinking was just confined to Andre Ware’s head, then I wouldn’t have a problem with it. But, it’s not. Most voters think this way. I won’t even get into the fact that a defensive player can’t win the award more than once ever.
4). I think Navy is the quasi-mid-point of all college football teams. If Navy beats you, then you’re bad. If you beat Navy then you’re good. Consider that since 2003, the combined record of the teams Navy has beaten is 107-284 for a dreadful winning percentage of .273. Navy’s four wins over I-AA opponents weren’t even included in that total. Conversely, the combined winning percentage of the teams Navy has lost to is 120-73 for a winning percentage of .621. So, if you want to know if you have a good team or a bad team, schedule Navy.
5). The Big Ten has taken a lot of flack this season for being mediocre. I can’t say that the criticism is undeserved. Ohio St. is the only elite team in the conference. There is still only one team ranked from the Big Ten in the top 20. However, be prepared to see nine Big Ten teams in bowl games. The conference already has six teams that are bowl eligible and three more with five wins. Northwestern would already be bowl eligible if it just would have beaten Duke.
Here are the remaining schedules for the three teams that need one win for bowl eligibility:
Michigan St.
@ Iowa
Michigan
@ Purdue
Penn St.
Indiana
@ Wisconsin
Ball St.
@ Northwestern
Purdue
Northwestern
@ Purdue
Iowa
Indiana
@ Illinois
Anyhow, on to the complaints…
Kentucky over S. Carolina
I’m not too agitated about this. Kentucky beat LSU. S. Carolina didn’t. Although, Kentucky got to play LSU at home and S. Carolina didn’t. Kentucky lost to two really good teams. S. Carolina lost to one really good team and one average team. S. Carolina beat Kentucky which should be the tiebreaker. I realize that S. Carolina got to play the game at home but after the game, I was convinced that S. Carolina was the better team. Different teams respond to road environments differently so maybe Kentucky just never got it together because of the hostile Columbia-environment. However, I would rank S. Carolina ahead of Kentucky because it looked like the better team by a decent margin. The USA Today had the same result.
The “lose at LSU and drop” theorem
I hate dropping teams for any loss no matter how impressive. Losses can be impressive. Auburn led LSU for the majority of its game losing with: 01 left on the clock. If LSU is the #3 team in the country, then Auburn has no business dropping. A five-spot plunge isn’t the end of the world. Also, Auburn is the only team in the polls with three losses. I just think the pollsters need to be able to look beyond the records. Auburn dropping becomes even more ridiculous since it will undoubtedly climb in the polls after beating Ole Miss and Tennessee Tech in the next two weeks. The USA Today did the same thing.
Hawaii
Hawaii climbed one-spot in the AP poll to #16. Brent Musberger says some dumb things but one of the dumbest came during the Michigan/Illinois telecast on Saturday. He defended Hawaii’s atrocious resume by saying “a win is a win.” He also said that as long as Hawaii keeps winning, it should get to play in a BCS game despite playing possibly the easiest schedule in the history of modern-day college football. Any average BCS school like Purdue, Maryland, or Oklahoma St. would go undefeated with Hawaii’s schedule. The USA Today poll has Hawaii inexplicably ranked at #14. I would expect every top-25 team to beat Hawaii.
Va. Tech at #8
Va. Tech has played one team that is ranked right now and it lost by 41. How is that worthy of the #8 ranking? And it’s not just that Va. Tech hasn’t been playing ranked teams. They have been playing awful teams. The Hokies claim the following wins; E. Carolina, Ohio, William & Mary, UNC, Duke, and Clemson. Obviously, Clemson is not a bad win but the rest are atrocious. There is no reason for Va. Tech to be ranked ahead of Florida and USC among others. The USA Today has Va. Tech at #9.
S. Florida dropping nine spots
Dropping S. Florida nine spots for losing by three points, on the road, against a top-25 team is ridiculous. Nobody wanted S. Florida ranked that high to begin with. This loss just gave every pollster an excuse to jettison them out of the top-ten. USC only dropped eights spots after losing to a 41-point underdog at home. The USA Today dropped S. Florida nine spots as well.
S. Florida over West Virginia
This is a duplicate of the Kentucky/S. Carolina situation. I don’t think it’s idiotic to rank WVU ahead of S. Florida. S. Florida had the advantage of playing the game at home. However, S. Florida was leading 21-3 in the 3rd quarter and 21-6 late in the game. It was never in danger of losing. It was an ugly game with 10 total turnovers. Neither team played great but that is how S. Florida plays. I left that game thinking that S. Florida was the better team. Plus, S. Florida just won at West Virginia at the end of last season. This win wasn’t a fluke. S. Florida should still be ranked ahead of West Virginia at this point. The USA Today again has the same thing.
Virginia
There is no doubt in my mind that Virginia is not a top-25 team. I have been agitated at the fact that both polls have ranked Virginia for the last couple weeks. However, I think I have been looking at this all wrong. I actually think the polls have shown some restraint in keeping Virginia out of the top 20 despite its 7-1 record. The polls usually fall for the teams with the inflated records (i.e. Hawaii). So, I guess this is more of a compliment than a criticism. Nevertheless, Virginia deserves to be ranked as much as Hawaii does.
Texas over Cal (among others)
Texas has no business being ranked ahead of Cal. Texas hasn’t beaten a ranked team and its five wins are over teams with a combined record of 16-29. They boast wins over the following powerhouses; Arkansas St., TCU, UCF, Rice, Iowa St., and Baylor. Cal, on the other hand has beaten # 5 Oregon and a Tennessee team that is much better than any team Texas has beaten. There is a boatload of teams that Texas shouldn’t be ranked ahead of but Cal seems the most obvious.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Michigan's Next Football Coach Final Edition
Recent related posts:
Paul Johnson is the best option for Michigan
Misunderstanding Paul Johnson
Nobody knows for certain when Michigan will be looking for its next football coach. It could be as soon as three months from now or a couple years from now. Only Lloyd Carr knows the answer to that one. However, I get the impression that this is it for Lloyd. If that ends up being the case, then the coaching search that takes place three months from now will probably be the most exciting thing to happen to the program since ’97. My preferences have changed slightly since my last list 10 months ago. Most of the names are the same but instead of focusing solely on candidates without ties to the program, I have included Les Miles who appears to be the only legitimate “Michigan Man” in contention. Any of the following coaches would be a good hire. Odds are that our next coach will be one of the guys below. If it is, recruiting likely won’t take a hit and the program will likely not miss a beat in the intermediate and likely flourish in the long run.
The Candidates
1). Les Miles-------LSU
I must admit that my first inclination at the thought of Miles being Michigan’s next coach was less than enthusiastic. I’ve never been an opponent of Miles in Ann Arbor but I did prefer some other names. I didn’t know much about him other than his brief tenure at Oklahoma St. and his first season at LSU. I have been dreaming (in my dreams) that Michigan’s next football coach would be an innovative tactician who could get the best out of Michigan's vast talent.
“Strategery” has never been a word used to describe the current Michigan coaching staff. Miles has never been thought of as an innovative genius of any kind, either. Whereas Jeff Tedford, Bobby Petrino, Paul Johnson, and Rich Rodriguez expose weakness with superior game-planning and play-calling, Miles keeps it relatively simple. Where Lloyd Carr attempts to coach like Bo Schembechler, it seems like Miles actually does it. Miles has proven that he is a Bo-disciple in just about every way. He favors the running game but not to a fault. He has a strong defense. He’s charismatic and he doesn’t pretend that he is a saint. Lloyd Carr—for all the goodwill that he has brought to the university—has taken everything that Bo did well and magnified it tenfold in a not-so-good way. He has taken Bo’s preference to the running game and turned it into a fixation often to the detriment of the program. He has removed virtually all surprise from the ground game often giving away the play before the ball is even snapped by using “tells” like a freshman wide receiver in the game or a fullback shuffle. He has taken Bo’s passion for UM and the comradery in the locker room and turned it into a “fort” where everything is run as if the program is protecting secrets vital to the safety of America.
The Michigan program has become stale. Bo’s success has been turned into a parody. When I first thought of Miles as Michigan’s next football coach, I envisioned just another Lloyd-type coach. I don’t see that anymore. I see a guy cut from the same cloth as Bo. He values a strong coaching staff. He can recruit with the best. He is conservative when he needs to be and risky when he needs to be. For the last five years, the term “Michigan Man” has left me ill at least when combined with the phrase “Michigan’s next football coach”. Miles is a “Michigan Man” and he would be a great fit. Some people will say he isn’t one of Lloyd’s favorite people. Others will say that Miles has had a shaky past. Don’t buy into that garbage. He was good enough for Oklahoma St., LSU, and Bo. As far as I’m concerned, that means he’s good enough for Michigan. Keep in mind that anyone who tries to discredit Miles as Michigan’s next football coach based on anything other than his coaching style probably has an agenda. Read mgoblog's profile of Miles to get a better idea of why he would be a good fit in Ann Arbor.
Best guess: Most signs point to Miles being the guy. I don’t have any reason to disagree. I think there is a better than 50% chance that Miles succeeds Carr.
2). Jeff Tedford----California
This is the third time I’ve listed the best candidates for the Michigan coaching job over the last 2+ years. Tedford has been in the top three on every list. There is little doubt that Tedford is an excellent coach. In the five years previous to his arrival at Cal in December of 2001, the Bears were 16-36 (.307 winning %). In the five and-a-half years since, Tedford has guided the Bears to a 48-21 record (.695 winning %). Tedford has turned the Cal program into a perennial BCS threat. Playing second fiddle to USC in recruiting has not made thing easy. Tedford has continued to bring top-notch talent to Berkley nonetheless. He is an offensive-guru and would be a perfect fit to open up the Michigan offense. I would certainly not be disappointed if he were the guy to take over the program. Read mgoblog’s profile of Tedford for more on Tedford’s miracle-job at Cal and his many strengths as a coach.
Best guess: Tedford seems happy at Cal. I don’t think he’s actively pursuing a way out of town. He also seems happy on the West Coast as evidenced by his coaching resume. I’m not sure what the pecking order is out west in terms of most sought after positions. USC is probably number one followed by UCLA. Tedford can pretty much coach wherever he wants so anytime one of those spots open—which could be soon for both places—Tedford could have the first crack if he wants it.
3). Paul Johnson-----Navy
Johnson will be a godsend for whatever program hires him. He just might be the best college football coach in the country. There certainly isn’t a single reason to think otherwise. There are only two other teams in the country that face as many obstacles as Johnson does at Navy and those teams are the other service academies (Army and Air Force). Air Force managed to run a pretty good program under Fisher DeBerry for a number of years but has tailed off significantly since his retirement. Army—with a talent level right on par with Navy—has gone 14-67 (.172 winning %) since 2000. When I say that Navy can only recruit players that nobody else wants, that’s exactly what I mean. You will almost never find a player at Navy or even remotely interested in Navy—or any of the academies—who has a legitimate shot at the NFL. And even if you did, said player would have to be willing to delay his NFL career by five years in order to honor his five-year commitment as a Naval Officer. Johnson has an annual roster full of players who are strong on heart and short on talent. His teams are always undersized and outmatched athletically. Navy never has a personnel advantage unless they are playing Army. As frustrating as it is to say—because I root for the academies—the only way an academy can compete under the current rules is to have vastly superior coaching. Cue Johnson.
What he has done at Navy has been truly remarkable. In the four years previous to his arrival, Navy was 9-35 (.204 winning %). In the five and-a-half years since, Navy is 41-27 (.602 winning percentage). Since the last game of his first season at Navy, Johnson has guided the Midshipmen to a 40-17 record (.701 winning percentage). That turnaround puts Tedford’s miracle-job at Cal to shame. By the end of this season, Johnson will have taken Navy to five-straight bowl games. The program only went to one bowl game in the previous twenty years before Johnson signed on
Even more remarkable is what Johnson has been able to accomplish offensively with the least sought after group of players in the country. Navy leads the nation in rushing with an unbelievable average of 345 yards per game. Navy’s offensive linemen weigh an average of 270 pounds. Navy’s starting right tackle is 255 pounds. Navy never has a quarterback who can throw. Every opponent knows that Navy is undersized. Every opponent knows that they’re going to run the ball 80% of the time. Yet, nobody can stop them. Johnson’s teams are also extremely disciplined. Navy is first in the nation in fewest penalty yardage and third in the nation in fewest penalties. Navy is 8th in the nation in 3rd down conversion percentage and 9th in 4th down conversion percentage. Johnson goes for it on fourth down over two times per game and has a dazzling success rate of 71%.
Johnson has been successful at every stop. He ran a I-AA powerhouse at Georgia Southern that resulted in two National Championships and five conference titles in five years. There is no question in my mind that Johnson will resurrect a fallen program in the near future. If Nebraska had any clue what it was doing, it would expend every resource into bringing Johnson to Lincoln. Johnson’s unstoppable running game would be a perfect fit for Nebraska’s rich tradition. I don’t think Johnson is a realistic candidate for the Michigan job. I think Bill Martin would take some heat for even considering it because of Johnson’s relative obscurity. Plus, it’s way too convenient for people to make the excuse that being successful at Navy isn’t like being successful at Michigan. Frankly, it’s not. It’s much, much harder to be successful at Navy.
Best guess: Tom Osbourne may be just the guy to give Johnson a call. I am a fan of Navy so I’m hoping he doesn’t go anywhere but he certainly deserves to coach at a marquee program. He would give Texas and Oklahoma fits.
4). Rich Rodriguez-----West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez is the pioneer of the spread option. Without Rodriguez’s influence, Urban Meyer would be just another football coach, Alex Smith would just be John L. Smith’s nephew and not the first pick in the NFL draft, and Ohio St. probably would have won the National Championship in 2006. Rodriguez is easily one of the top ten coaches in college football. The talent level he has at West Virginia is nowhere near what most people would expect. The Mountaineers have only had one top-30 recruiting class since Rodriguez took over. Still, Rodriguez has managed to turn the WVU into a perennial top-ten program. The program has reached new heights in just a few short years. Rodriguez is on track to lead the Mountaineers to their third-straight 11-win season. He has led the program to two consecutive top-ten finishes for the first time in school history and is working on a third. Rodriguez has led WVU to back to back bowl wins for only the second time in school history. WVU had only won one bowl game in the previous 21 years.
The spread option has made West Virginia the second most prolific rushing attack in college football this season. The Mountaineers have increased their rushing totals in each of the last four seasons and they are on pace to do the same this season. Despite running the ball 50 times per game, WVU leads the nation in average yards per carry which goes a long way in demonstrating how effective Rodriguez’s scheme is. WVU also leads the nation in rushing touchdowns by a considerable margin.
The spread option doesn’t lean heavily on the running game by its nature but it can clearly manifest itself in that way. For teams with lesser talent, it is meant to even the playing field with an effective rushing attack. For teams with a quarterback who can throw, the spread option becomes even more devastating and the heavy reliance on the running game isn’t necessary. This was the case with Alex Smith in Urban Meyer’s spread option at Utah. With Alex Smith, Meyer was able to balance his attack about as evenly as possible as Utah rushed for 2,836 yards and passed for 2,694 for an amazing 51/49 ratio in 2004. That would likely be the case with Rich Rodriguez if he took over at Michigan as well. Michigan’s talent level would allow Rodriguez to run the spread option in the way it was meant to be run. Ideally, any coach—whether he runs the spread option or not—wants a balanced passing and rushing attack (unless that coach is Mike Martz). Rodriguez hasn’t had the personnel to do that at West Virginia so he leans on the running game.
The spread option is not a “gimmick” offense that can only be used with inferior talent, nor is it an offense that is designed to ignore the pass. The last two National Champions (Texas and Florida) have run the spread option. Ohio St.—with a Heisman winning quarterback—ran the spread option last season. The offense is adaptable to all teams with all talent levels.
Best guess: Rodriguez is at his alma mater. He loves West Virginia. He has the program among the elite in the nation. He turned down a gazillion dollars to coach at Alabama. I don’t think he’s going anyway—ever.
5). Brian Kelly----Cincinnati
Kelly took over the Central Michigan football program after Mike DeBord proved just how inept Michigan’s philosophy would be at a school that doesn’t have the best talent. Kelly took DeBord’s mess and turned it into a winning program in just two seasons. In 2006, Kelly led the Chippewas to their first 10-win season since 1979. The season also culminated in Central’s first ever bowl win. Considering the crop of talent he inherited from DeBord’s regime, Kelly proved his merit as a phenomenal football coach.
Kelly took over for Cincinnati in December of 2006 just in time to lead the Bearcats to only the third bowl victory in school history. Kelly has taken the Cincinnati program to a new level in 2007. The Bearcats are ranked for the first time since 1976. The Bearcats got off to a 5-0 start which was the first such start since 1935. Although Kelly is nationally recognized as an offensive mastermind, Cincinnati’s defense has stolen the show thus far ranking 6th in the nation in points allowed per game.
Kelly achieved early success in his coaching career as he dominated Division 2 football at Grand Valley St. In his last three seasons at GVSU, Kelly was 41-2 with two National Championships. His 2001-team averaged an unbelievable 58 points per game. Kelly is clearly a brilliant coach. He will not last at Cincinnati for very long. Look for his next step to be a quantum leap to a national power or possibly the NFL. Michigan will probably not look at Kelly as anything other than a fallback option. There is no question in my mind that Kelly would get the most out of the Michigan program. He maximizes talent which is just what Michigan needs.
Best guess: Kelly is in the process of pulling the Urban Meyer Trifecta. Meyer went from Bowling Green to Utah to Florida in just five years. Kelly is on an almost identical pace. He went from Central Michigan to Cincinnati and the next destination will likely be a big one. I don’t see him lasting more than three seasons at Cincinnati. I have heard that Kelly has interest in the NFL, but, who doesn’t at some point or another?
6). Greg Schiano-----Rutgers
Schiano has revived the once dormant Rutgers program in astonishing fashion. Last season, Rutgers was in position to go to the BCS Championship Game as late as mid-November. This is a program that was 0-11 in 1997, 1-10 in 1999, and 1-11 in 2002. Rutgers is nowhere near a finished product considering Schiano had to build the program from scratch. Last season’s success is finally having an impact on recruiting as Rutgers finds itself in on more high-profile recruits. It has been a slow—and sometimes stagnant—process since Schiano took over in 2001. Schiano has the program in line for its third-straight bowl game which is astounding considering the program hadn’t been to a bowl in 27 years before the streak began.
Schiano turned down the Miami (FL) job to stay at Rutgers. He is clearly interested in finishing the job he started six years ago. I would be surprised if he wasn’t interested in the Michigan job, however. There is no question that he would be a great coach wherever he ends up. My guess is that he’ll take over for Joe Paterno in 2058. Schiano is kind of an unknown commodity. He is clearly a good coach but Rutgers has taken a step back this season. Building a team from the bottom up is slightly different than keeping the program among the elite year in and year out. He might be a risky hire in that regard. Then again, he’s coaching at Rutgers. He has done about as well as a coach can do there.
Best guess: Rumors have Schiano replacing JoePa at Penn St. I’m not one to buy into rumors given their 10% success rate but this one makes sense. Schiano coached at Penn St. for five years in the 90s. He’s a bright, young coach who doesn’t seem to mind coaching in obscure locations (see; Rutgers).
An additional option if Carr stays another year and the Falcons stink…
This list is predicated on the idea that this is Carr’s last season. If it’s not, more names become available. One giant name that could become available by the end of next season is Bobby Petrino. Short stints by college coaches are the norm in the NFL. Steve Spurrier lasted two seasons as the head coach of the Redskins. Nick Saban lasted two seasons with the Dolphins. Butch Davis lasted 3.5 seasons with the Browns. Dennis Erickson lasted two seasons with the 49ers. All left college football on top of the world to test their craft in the NFL and all found their way back to the college ranks quickly. No coach since Jimmy Johnson has gone from the top of the college football coaching world to a successful coach in the NFL. Pete Carroll proved that life is great after a failed NFL-stint. If Petrino doesn’t pan out in Atlanta—and I’m not sure how he can with the odds stacked against him—some upper echelon college football program will reap the benefits.
Bobby Petrino-----Atlanta Falcons
The odds of Petrino being the next coach go from about 0% to 1% if Carr stays. Petrino is just getting used to coaching in the NFL. He’ll probably not be burnt out after one bad—albeit a dreadfully bad—season in Atlanta. Ownership will give him time to implement his system. So, he’ll probably not be on the market after his first season. Plus, his contract with the Falcons—five years for $24 million—is twice as much as he would get at Michigan. Needless to say, he won’t be actively pursuing ways to give up $12 million. If things continue to stink in 2008, though, you can bet that Petrino will start to think about returning to college ala Carroll, Saban, and Spurrier. I’m pretty sure that this is Carr’s last season, and I’m pretty sure that Michigan would never hire Petrino for various “doesn’t fit in”-reasons. Nonetheless, Petrino is easily one of the ten best coaches in America. He turned Louisville—yes, Louisville—into a dominating college football program. He could turn a top 25 school into a USC-type powerhouse in the same way Pete Carroll did. Petrino at Michigan would send the program into another stratosphere.
Best guess: This is just off the top of my head but Bobby Bowden’s last season at FSU could coincide with Petrino’s last season in Atlanta which would be a perfect fit. Petrino at Florida St. would be bad news for every non-Seminoles fan.
Final thoughts:
I would be shocked if Michigan’s next coach isn’t somewhere on this list. In fact, I would be shocked if Michigan’s next coach isn’t Les Miles or Jeff Tedford. There are obviously other candidates out there worth mentioning like Mike Leach and Jim Leavitt but I don’t think either of them are realistic options. Michigan will look for a specific breed of coach who isn’t “gimmicky” or too obscure which eliminates more than a few options including Johnson and Rodriguez. I wish—but don’t have a whole lot of confidence—that Michigan could have more of an open-mind when looking for its next football coach. Regardless, I am much happier with the prospects than I was one and two years ago when Mike DeBord, Terry Malone, Jim Herrmann, and Ron English were paramount in the discussion. We’re going to get somebody good and it’s going to be awesome.
Paul Johnson is the best option for Michigan
Misunderstanding Paul Johnson
Nobody knows for certain when Michigan will be looking for its next football coach. It could be as soon as three months from now or a couple years from now. Only Lloyd Carr knows the answer to that one. However, I get the impression that this is it for Lloyd. If that ends up being the case, then the coaching search that takes place three months from now will probably be the most exciting thing to happen to the program since ’97. My preferences have changed slightly since my last list 10 months ago. Most of the names are the same but instead of focusing solely on candidates without ties to the program, I have included Les Miles who appears to be the only legitimate “Michigan Man” in contention. Any of the following coaches would be a good hire. Odds are that our next coach will be one of the guys below. If it is, recruiting likely won’t take a hit and the program will likely not miss a beat in the intermediate and likely flourish in the long run.
The Candidates
1). Les Miles-------LSU
I must admit that my first inclination at the thought of Miles being Michigan’s next coach was less than enthusiastic. I’ve never been an opponent of Miles in Ann Arbor but I did prefer some other names. I didn’t know much about him other than his brief tenure at Oklahoma St. and his first season at LSU. I have been dreaming (in my dreams) that Michigan’s next football coach would be an innovative tactician who could get the best out of Michigan's vast talent.
“Strategery” has never been a word used to describe the current Michigan coaching staff. Miles has never been thought of as an innovative genius of any kind, either. Whereas Jeff Tedford, Bobby Petrino, Paul Johnson, and Rich Rodriguez expose weakness with superior game-planning and play-calling, Miles keeps it relatively simple. Where Lloyd Carr attempts to coach like Bo Schembechler, it seems like Miles actually does it. Miles has proven that he is a Bo-disciple in just about every way. He favors the running game but not to a fault. He has a strong defense. He’s charismatic and he doesn’t pretend that he is a saint. Lloyd Carr—for all the goodwill that he has brought to the university—has taken everything that Bo did well and magnified it tenfold in a not-so-good way. He has taken Bo’s preference to the running game and turned it into a fixation often to the detriment of the program. He has removed virtually all surprise from the ground game often giving away the play before the ball is even snapped by using “tells” like a freshman wide receiver in the game or a fullback shuffle. He has taken Bo’s passion for UM and the comradery in the locker room and turned it into a “fort” where everything is run as if the program is protecting secrets vital to the safety of America.
The Michigan program has become stale. Bo’s success has been turned into a parody. When I first thought of Miles as Michigan’s next football coach, I envisioned just another Lloyd-type coach. I don’t see that anymore. I see a guy cut from the same cloth as Bo. He values a strong coaching staff. He can recruit with the best. He is conservative when he needs to be and risky when he needs to be. For the last five years, the term “Michigan Man” has left me ill at least when combined with the phrase “Michigan’s next football coach”. Miles is a “Michigan Man” and he would be a great fit. Some people will say he isn’t one of Lloyd’s favorite people. Others will say that Miles has had a shaky past. Don’t buy into that garbage. He was good enough for Oklahoma St., LSU, and Bo. As far as I’m concerned, that means he’s good enough for Michigan. Keep in mind that anyone who tries to discredit Miles as Michigan’s next football coach based on anything other than his coaching style probably has an agenda. Read mgoblog's profile of Miles to get a better idea of why he would be a good fit in Ann Arbor.
Best guess: Most signs point to Miles being the guy. I don’t have any reason to disagree. I think there is a better than 50% chance that Miles succeeds Carr.
2). Jeff Tedford----California
This is the third time I’ve listed the best candidates for the Michigan coaching job over the last 2+ years. Tedford has been in the top three on every list. There is little doubt that Tedford is an excellent coach. In the five years previous to his arrival at Cal in December of 2001, the Bears were 16-36 (.307 winning %). In the five and-a-half years since, Tedford has guided the Bears to a 48-21 record (.695 winning %). Tedford has turned the Cal program into a perennial BCS threat. Playing second fiddle to USC in recruiting has not made thing easy. Tedford has continued to bring top-notch talent to Berkley nonetheless. He is an offensive-guru and would be a perfect fit to open up the Michigan offense. I would certainly not be disappointed if he were the guy to take over the program. Read mgoblog’s profile of Tedford for more on Tedford’s miracle-job at Cal and his many strengths as a coach.
Best guess: Tedford seems happy at Cal. I don’t think he’s actively pursuing a way out of town. He also seems happy on the West Coast as evidenced by his coaching resume. I’m not sure what the pecking order is out west in terms of most sought after positions. USC is probably number one followed by UCLA. Tedford can pretty much coach wherever he wants so anytime one of those spots open—which could be soon for both places—Tedford could have the first crack if he wants it.
3). Paul Johnson-----Navy
Johnson will be a godsend for whatever program hires him. He just might be the best college football coach in the country. There certainly isn’t a single reason to think otherwise. There are only two other teams in the country that face as many obstacles as Johnson does at Navy and those teams are the other service academies (Army and Air Force). Air Force managed to run a pretty good program under Fisher DeBerry for a number of years but has tailed off significantly since his retirement. Army—with a talent level right on par with Navy—has gone 14-67 (.172 winning %) since 2000. When I say that Navy can only recruit players that nobody else wants, that’s exactly what I mean. You will almost never find a player at Navy or even remotely interested in Navy—or any of the academies—who has a legitimate shot at the NFL. And even if you did, said player would have to be willing to delay his NFL career by five years in order to honor his five-year commitment as a Naval Officer. Johnson has an annual roster full of players who are strong on heart and short on talent. His teams are always undersized and outmatched athletically. Navy never has a personnel advantage unless they are playing Army. As frustrating as it is to say—because I root for the academies—the only way an academy can compete under the current rules is to have vastly superior coaching. Cue Johnson.
What he has done at Navy has been truly remarkable. In the four years previous to his arrival, Navy was 9-35 (.204 winning %). In the five and-a-half years since, Navy is 41-27 (.602 winning percentage). Since the last game of his first season at Navy, Johnson has guided the Midshipmen to a 40-17 record (.701 winning percentage). That turnaround puts Tedford’s miracle-job at Cal to shame. By the end of this season, Johnson will have taken Navy to five-straight bowl games. The program only went to one bowl game in the previous twenty years before Johnson signed on
Even more remarkable is what Johnson has been able to accomplish offensively with the least sought after group of players in the country. Navy leads the nation in rushing with an unbelievable average of 345 yards per game. Navy’s offensive linemen weigh an average of 270 pounds. Navy’s starting right tackle is 255 pounds. Navy never has a quarterback who can throw. Every opponent knows that Navy is undersized. Every opponent knows that they’re going to run the ball 80% of the time. Yet, nobody can stop them. Johnson’s teams are also extremely disciplined. Navy is first in the nation in fewest penalty yardage and third in the nation in fewest penalties. Navy is 8th in the nation in 3rd down conversion percentage and 9th in 4th down conversion percentage. Johnson goes for it on fourth down over two times per game and has a dazzling success rate of 71%.
Johnson has been successful at every stop. He ran a I-AA powerhouse at Georgia Southern that resulted in two National Championships and five conference titles in five years. There is no question in my mind that Johnson will resurrect a fallen program in the near future. If Nebraska had any clue what it was doing, it would expend every resource into bringing Johnson to Lincoln. Johnson’s unstoppable running game would be a perfect fit for Nebraska’s rich tradition. I don’t think Johnson is a realistic candidate for the Michigan job. I think Bill Martin would take some heat for even considering it because of Johnson’s relative obscurity. Plus, it’s way too convenient for people to make the excuse that being successful at Navy isn’t like being successful at Michigan. Frankly, it’s not. It’s much, much harder to be successful at Navy.
Best guess: Tom Osbourne may be just the guy to give Johnson a call. I am a fan of Navy so I’m hoping he doesn’t go anywhere but he certainly deserves to coach at a marquee program. He would give Texas and Oklahoma fits.
4). Rich Rodriguez-----West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez is the pioneer of the spread option. Without Rodriguez’s influence, Urban Meyer would be just another football coach, Alex Smith would just be John L. Smith’s nephew and not the first pick in the NFL draft, and Ohio St. probably would have won the National Championship in 2006. Rodriguez is easily one of the top ten coaches in college football. The talent level he has at West Virginia is nowhere near what most people would expect. The Mountaineers have only had one top-30 recruiting class since Rodriguez took over. Still, Rodriguez has managed to turn the WVU into a perennial top-ten program. The program has reached new heights in just a few short years. Rodriguez is on track to lead the Mountaineers to their third-straight 11-win season. He has led the program to two consecutive top-ten finishes for the first time in school history and is working on a third. Rodriguez has led WVU to back to back bowl wins for only the second time in school history. WVU had only won one bowl game in the previous 21 years.
The spread option has made West Virginia the second most prolific rushing attack in college football this season. The Mountaineers have increased their rushing totals in each of the last four seasons and they are on pace to do the same this season. Despite running the ball 50 times per game, WVU leads the nation in average yards per carry which goes a long way in demonstrating how effective Rodriguez’s scheme is. WVU also leads the nation in rushing touchdowns by a considerable margin.
The spread option doesn’t lean heavily on the running game by its nature but it can clearly manifest itself in that way. For teams with lesser talent, it is meant to even the playing field with an effective rushing attack. For teams with a quarterback who can throw, the spread option becomes even more devastating and the heavy reliance on the running game isn’t necessary. This was the case with Alex Smith in Urban Meyer’s spread option at Utah. With Alex Smith, Meyer was able to balance his attack about as evenly as possible as Utah rushed for 2,836 yards and passed for 2,694 for an amazing 51/49 ratio in 2004. That would likely be the case with Rich Rodriguez if he took over at Michigan as well. Michigan’s talent level would allow Rodriguez to run the spread option in the way it was meant to be run. Ideally, any coach—whether he runs the spread option or not—wants a balanced passing and rushing attack (unless that coach is Mike Martz). Rodriguez hasn’t had the personnel to do that at West Virginia so he leans on the running game.
The spread option is not a “gimmick” offense that can only be used with inferior talent, nor is it an offense that is designed to ignore the pass. The last two National Champions (Texas and Florida) have run the spread option. Ohio St.—with a Heisman winning quarterback—ran the spread option last season. The offense is adaptable to all teams with all talent levels.
Best guess: Rodriguez is at his alma mater. He loves West Virginia. He has the program among the elite in the nation. He turned down a gazillion dollars to coach at Alabama. I don’t think he’s going anyway—ever.
5). Brian Kelly----Cincinnati
Kelly took over the Central Michigan football program after Mike DeBord proved just how inept Michigan’s philosophy would be at a school that doesn’t have the best talent. Kelly took DeBord’s mess and turned it into a winning program in just two seasons. In 2006, Kelly led the Chippewas to their first 10-win season since 1979. The season also culminated in Central’s first ever bowl win. Considering the crop of talent he inherited from DeBord’s regime, Kelly proved his merit as a phenomenal football coach.
Kelly took over for Cincinnati in December of 2006 just in time to lead the Bearcats to only the third bowl victory in school history. Kelly has taken the Cincinnati program to a new level in 2007. The Bearcats are ranked for the first time since 1976. The Bearcats got off to a 5-0 start which was the first such start since 1935. Although Kelly is nationally recognized as an offensive mastermind, Cincinnati’s defense has stolen the show thus far ranking 6th in the nation in points allowed per game.
Kelly achieved early success in his coaching career as he dominated Division 2 football at Grand Valley St. In his last three seasons at GVSU, Kelly was 41-2 with two National Championships. His 2001-team averaged an unbelievable 58 points per game. Kelly is clearly a brilliant coach. He will not last at Cincinnati for very long. Look for his next step to be a quantum leap to a national power or possibly the NFL. Michigan will probably not look at Kelly as anything other than a fallback option. There is no question in my mind that Kelly would get the most out of the Michigan program. He maximizes talent which is just what Michigan needs.
Best guess: Kelly is in the process of pulling the Urban Meyer Trifecta. Meyer went from Bowling Green to Utah to Florida in just five years. Kelly is on an almost identical pace. He went from Central Michigan to Cincinnati and the next destination will likely be a big one. I don’t see him lasting more than three seasons at Cincinnati. I have heard that Kelly has interest in the NFL, but, who doesn’t at some point or another?
6). Greg Schiano-----Rutgers
Schiano has revived the once dormant Rutgers program in astonishing fashion. Last season, Rutgers was in position to go to the BCS Championship Game as late as mid-November. This is a program that was 0-11 in 1997, 1-10 in 1999, and 1-11 in 2002. Rutgers is nowhere near a finished product considering Schiano had to build the program from scratch. Last season’s success is finally having an impact on recruiting as Rutgers finds itself in on more high-profile recruits. It has been a slow—and sometimes stagnant—process since Schiano took over in 2001. Schiano has the program in line for its third-straight bowl game which is astounding considering the program hadn’t been to a bowl in 27 years before the streak began.
Schiano turned down the Miami (FL) job to stay at Rutgers. He is clearly interested in finishing the job he started six years ago. I would be surprised if he wasn’t interested in the Michigan job, however. There is no question that he would be a great coach wherever he ends up. My guess is that he’ll take over for Joe Paterno in 2058. Schiano is kind of an unknown commodity. He is clearly a good coach but Rutgers has taken a step back this season. Building a team from the bottom up is slightly different than keeping the program among the elite year in and year out. He might be a risky hire in that regard. Then again, he’s coaching at Rutgers. He has done about as well as a coach can do there.
Best guess: Rumors have Schiano replacing JoePa at Penn St. I’m not one to buy into rumors given their 10% success rate but this one makes sense. Schiano coached at Penn St. for five years in the 90s. He’s a bright, young coach who doesn’t seem to mind coaching in obscure locations (see; Rutgers).
An additional option if Carr stays another year and the Falcons stink…
This list is predicated on the idea that this is Carr’s last season. If it’s not, more names become available. One giant name that could become available by the end of next season is Bobby Petrino. Short stints by college coaches are the norm in the NFL. Steve Spurrier lasted two seasons as the head coach of the Redskins. Nick Saban lasted two seasons with the Dolphins. Butch Davis lasted 3.5 seasons with the Browns. Dennis Erickson lasted two seasons with the 49ers. All left college football on top of the world to test their craft in the NFL and all found their way back to the college ranks quickly. No coach since Jimmy Johnson has gone from the top of the college football coaching world to a successful coach in the NFL. Pete Carroll proved that life is great after a failed NFL-stint. If Petrino doesn’t pan out in Atlanta—and I’m not sure how he can with the odds stacked against him—some upper echelon college football program will reap the benefits.
Bobby Petrino-----Atlanta Falcons
The odds of Petrino being the next coach go from about 0% to 1% if Carr stays. Petrino is just getting used to coaching in the NFL. He’ll probably not be burnt out after one bad—albeit a dreadfully bad—season in Atlanta. Ownership will give him time to implement his system. So, he’ll probably not be on the market after his first season. Plus, his contract with the Falcons—five years for $24 million—is twice as much as he would get at Michigan. Needless to say, he won’t be actively pursuing ways to give up $12 million. If things continue to stink in 2008, though, you can bet that Petrino will start to think about returning to college ala Carroll, Saban, and Spurrier. I’m pretty sure that this is Carr’s last season, and I’m pretty sure that Michigan would never hire Petrino for various “doesn’t fit in”-reasons. Nonetheless, Petrino is easily one of the ten best coaches in America. He turned Louisville—yes, Louisville—into a dominating college football program. He could turn a top 25 school into a USC-type powerhouse in the same way Pete Carroll did. Petrino at Michigan would send the program into another stratosphere.
Best guess: This is just off the top of my head but Bobby Bowden’s last season at FSU could coincide with Petrino’s last season in Atlanta which would be a perfect fit. Petrino at Florida St. would be bad news for every non-Seminoles fan.
Final thoughts:
I would be shocked if Michigan’s next coach isn’t somewhere on this list. In fact, I would be shocked if Michigan’s next coach isn’t Les Miles or Jeff Tedford. There are obviously other candidates out there worth mentioning like Mike Leach and Jim Leavitt but I don’t think either of them are realistic options. Michigan will look for a specific breed of coach who isn’t “gimmicky” or too obscure which eliminates more than a few options including Johnson and Rodriguez. I wish—but don’t have a whole lot of confidence—that Michigan could have more of an open-mind when looking for its next football coach. Regardless, I am much happier with the prospects than I was one and two years ago when Mike DeBord, Terry Malone, Jim Herrmann, and Ron English were paramount in the discussion. We’re going to get somebody good and it’s going to be awesome.
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