Don't count Griffey out yet

Barry Bonds just broke the all-time home run record and he already has someone in his rearview mirror and it’s not A-Rod—at least not yet. A-Rod will likely become the Home Run King in eight or nine years depending on how much longer Bonds plays. However, Ken Griffey Jr. could break the record in six or seven years. In the same way A-Rod is viewed today, Griffey was widely considered a “lock” to break Hank Aaron’s home run record as recently as six years ago. Griffey had hit more home runs through the age of 30 than any other player in MLB history. Then, an almost unbelievable string of injury riddled-seasons took place. All told, Griffey missed the equivalent of three full-seasons over his career due to injury. Just to put that in perspective, Griffey would have been staring at the all-time home run record as early as next season. Instead, he finds himself knocking on 600 home runs at 37 years old. Still, Griffey is only 15 home runs behind Bonds’ total through the age of 37. Keep in mind that Bonds’ total through the age of 37 does include his 73 home run-effort in 2001.

Home Runs through age 37

Bonds 613
Griffey 598


Bonds’ Home Run Totals after 37

2003 (38) 45
2004 (39) 45
2005 (40) 5
2006 (41) 26
2007 (42) 29 *

* projection

By the end of 2007, Bonds will have hit 150 home runs in the five seasons he has played since the age of 37. Despite the two 45-HR efforts in 2003 and 2004, that only comes out to an average of 30 home runs per year.

Griffey made what should be a permanent move to right-field in 2007 and he has responded with his healthiest season in eight years. Without having to face the grueling task of patrolling centerfield, Griffey could very well see an end to his string of partial-seasons. Griffey has stayed in great shape and still looks young for his age. Bonds has managed to play through the age of 43 despite carrying around a bulky frame on a bad knee. Griffey isn’t bulky and doesn’t have permanent debilitating injuries (at least that I am aware of). If Bonds can play through the age of 43 with his frame and health, I don’t see why Griffey couldn’t do the same. Unless Griffey has some Barry Sanders in his makeup, I am guessing that getting close to the record would encourage him to play longer to go for the record ala Barry Bonds.

So, the question becomes, can Ken Griffey Jr. average 30 home runs over the next six seasons? Doing so would put him very close to the record. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that it might happen. He is on pace for around 35 home runs this season. I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that Griffey might play well beyond the age of 42. For all I know, Griffey plans to retire at 40 but he seems to enjoy playing baseball. His skills are still there and I’m guessing as long as he can compete at a high level, he will continue to play. If I was forced to put money on whether Griffey will break the record or not, I would have to put my money against it. However, I think it’s a whole lot more likely than most people realize. In fact, I would give him a one-in-three chance at a minimum. Bonds could make things difficult by playing a few more seasons and playing well in those seasons. But, if Bonds only plays one more season, I see no reason to think that Griffey won’t make a run at becoming the Home Run King. Unfortunately for Griffey, if he does break the record, he will likely lose it after one or two seasons when A-Rod comes calling.

MLB Hall of Fame Projections: Shortstop

There have only been three shortstops in MLB history to reach 3,000 hits. They are, of course, Honus Wagner, Robin Yount and Cal Ripken Jr. That number will increase by 66% within five years when A-Rod and Derek Jeter accomplish the feat. It may even double within ten years if Michael Young keeps putting up 200-hits a year like he’s Wade Boggs. The offensive revolution at the shortstop position—seemingly sparked by Cal Ripken Jr.—that was looking like a certainty in the late 90s didn’t really happen the way I envisioned it. Nomar Garciaparra missed enough games to account for close to three seasons. A-Rod moved to third base. Jeter is a singles hitter. Miguel Tejada has been the only permanent shortstop to emerge from that time period that could be classified as a legitimate power-hitting player. It looked like those guys were just the first wave of what was going to be a new trend at the position. The only problem is that nobody came after them. To be fair, the position is littered with players capable of putting up 20+ HRs and 80+ RBIs from time to time like Carlos Guillen, Jimmy Rollins, and J.J. Hardy. However, most shortstops in baseball today still struggle to put up a .400 slugging percentage. Ripken’s power/defense combination is standing the test of time amazingly well.

Here are the categories that I will be using to breakdown the candidates and a brief description of each category: The “Lock” and “Likely” categories will be counted as being projected into the Hall of Fame. There won’t be too many “Borderline” candidates but I’ll decide those projections on a case by case basis. I will not count players under 25 regardless of my opinion but I’ll identify players under 25 who seem to be off to excellent starts.

Lock: Barring steroid scandal, will be a Hall of Famer
Likely: Player is on the path based on career progression
Borderline: Pretty close to 50/50; or could make a charge
Not Likely: Almost no chance; would take an unexpected resurgence
Under 25: Players that have a good start to a potential HOF career


Active Hall of Fame Shortstops

Locks (2)

Alex Rodriguez

The only controversy here is whether I should have classified A-Rod as a shortstop or a third-baseman. As I type this, A-Rod has played 1272 career games at shortstop and 570 at third base. Also, if A-Rod leaves the Yankees in the off-season, he’ll probably be going back to shortstop. So, Mike Schmidt can relax. His reign as arguably the greatest third baseman of all-time is safe for now. I could go through A-Rod’s numbers but I’ll just refer you to my post from last week that goes over that in detail.

Derek Jeter

Jeter is a guarantee as well. One thing to look out for over the remainder of their careers is who will finish with more career hits between Jeter and A-Rod. I wouldn’t be surprised if that developed into a friendly competition at some point. In fact, that sort of competition may be what is needed for someone to make a serious run at Pete Rose’s all-time hits record. Jeter probably isn’t as good as he’s made out to be. His defense is often criticized by baseball people that follow the most reputable defensive metrics. He is probably overrated as being “clutch”. Nonetheless, the dude can hit. Plus, a career comparison between Jeter and Ripken makes Jeter look pretty darn good. Jeter has him beat in just about every conceivable category in terms of per-season production. The only thing lacking on Jeter’s side happens to be a pretty important category: MVPs.

Likely (1)

Miguel Tejada

Tejada just needs to stay healthy and he’ll be a virtual “lock”. Tejada is one of the most prolific power-hitting shortstops of all-time. In his eight full-seasons, he has six 100-RBI totals and a 98-RBI effort. He drove in 131 RBIs in 2002 and 150 RBIs in 2004; the latter being the most by a shortstop in 55 years. Tejada has an MVP award and close to 1,000 career runs and RBIs and he is only 31. He’ll probably only need five more productive seasons to cement his status as a sure-thing since he plays a position that is historically devoid of offense.


Borderline

Nomar Garciaparra

Had I put together a list like this in 2003, I would have almost certainly put Nomar in the “likely” category. He had produced six 190-hit seasons in just seven years. He finished in the top ten of the AL MVP voting five times in six seasons. Then his career was Ken Griffey Jr-ed. He has missed 230+ games since 2004—and 370+ throughout his career—in what were to be his prime seasons. Even still, he has managed a dazzling .316 career average and a 127 OPS+ which is better than Ripken, Tejada, and Jeter. All Nomar is missing at this point are the career numbers. At 34, he still has some time to do damage. I’m guessing he’ll need to keep his career average and OPS+ where they’re at and reach 2,500+ career hits to have a fighting chance. With those averages and numbers, he’ll have a much better resume than some of the borderline shortstops like Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. I would love to reserve judgment at this point but that would be too easy so I’ll project him “out” of the Hall of Fame. He doesn’t appear to be anywhere near the hitter he was five years ago. Playing in L.A. isn’t going to help his cause either. It’s not impossible but I would have to say it’s improbable.

Michael Young

I received a text message from a friend earlier in the baseball-season that read “Michael Young sucks.” Said friend had Young in a HR fantasy league which may explain his frustration (4 HRs in 444 at-bats). If there are two things I know, one is that Michael Young doesn’t hit homeruns and two, Michael Young does not suck at baseball. He has 200+ hits in each of the last four seasons and he is on pace for 200+ again this year. If he can pull of a fifth consecutive 200-hit season, he’ll join Willie Keeler, Wade Boggs, Ichiro, Chuck Klein, Al Simmons, and Charlie Gehringer as the only players in MLB history to accomplish that feat. Guess what? They are all in Cooperstown with the exception of Ichiro who will be. So, those who think Young won’t make the Hall of Fame also must think that he’ll be the first player ever with 5-straight 200-hit seasons to be kept out assuming he squeaks out 200 hits this year. The problem with Young is that none of his other statistics will blow you away. He got a relatively late start as an everyday player at 25. His OPS+ is only 101. He scores a lot of runs and drives in a lot of RBIs for a shortstop. His power numbers are pretty much non-existent. I really have no idea what to think of Young. There is no reason to think his 200+ hit-seasons are behind him considering he is only 30. I would have a better feel if his career average was something ridiculous like .320 or higher. Amazingly, it is merely a respectable .300. That is good for most players but shockingly low for someone working on five-straight seasons of 200+ hits. I’m definitely torn. I’ll say he’s “out” for now but reserve the right to change my mind. To be honest, even if Young reaches 3,000 hits, I’m not so sure he would be a “lock” to make it to Cooperstown.


Not Likely

Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins has almost no chance. I’m leaving room for an unforeseeable power-surge in the latter half of his career. He is only 28 and has had 628 or more at-bats since he was 22 years old. If there’s one thing for certain, it’s that Rollins gets a ton of at-bats every year. His numbers are less impressive than Young’s across the board and he has zero 200+ hit-seasons. Rollins could end up with 3,000 hits which would make things very interesting. He would almost certainly reach that mark if he plays until he’s 40 which isn’t asking much in this day and age. The talk of Young and Rollins possibly reaching 3,000 hits prompted me to look into active players who have the best chance of reaching 3,000 hits without being elected to the Hall of Fame. I’m pretty sure it’s going to happen some day relatively soon. I'll have a post on that either this week or next.

Omar Vizquel

This is a sore subject for me. I am willing to admit that Vizquel may be voted into the Hall of Fame. I have no idea how much of the “best defensive shortstop of all-time”-propaganda the voters will buy. I am also willing to admit that Vizquel has been a solid pro for 19 years. What I am not willing to admit is that Vizquel is worthy of making it to the Hall of Fame. I refuse to believe that Ozzie Smith’s numbers make Vizquel a Hall of Famer. If Ozzie’s career was judged on numbers, he wouldn’t have made it. He had the luxury of playing in the National League in the 80s where good shortstops were as rare as a John Kruk-stolen base. With respect to the league (NL), Smith was the best shortstop in the game—or at least he was viewed that way. That, along with the fact that he made 15 All-Star games is why he was selected to Cooperstown. Call it misfortune but Vizquel has never been close to the best shortstop in the game when offense and defense are weighed appropriately. Vizquel’s defense and run-of-the-mill batting average has made him serviceable. There is no reason for him to be thought of as anything more.

Edgar Renteria

Renteria, like Rollins and Young, has a shot at 3,000 career hits without any other impressive numbers to back it up. If the “3,000-hits equals Hall of Fame” rule is iron clad, then Renteria may be heading to Cooperstown. However, I think their will be exceptions if exceptions need to be made. Renteria’s numbers aren’t nearly in line with the great shortstops of this era. His numbers are better than Rollins’ but both don’t have the production to merit much consideration.

Rafael Furcal

According to baseball-reference.com, the most similar batter to Furcal in the history of baseball is Jimmy Rollins. In fact, this is freaky…

-------------------Avg.—Hits—RBIs---Runs---SBs---BBs---Ks---2B—OPS+
Jimmy Rollins--.276---1234--456----720---226---347---611---257--98
Rafael Furcal---.286---1236--392----723---237—-432---624---210--97

Since Rollins and Furcal are pretty much the same guy, you can read Rollins’ write-up again if you’d like. I have nothing more to add on Furcal

Under 25 to keep an eye on:

Hanley Ramirez

Ramirez is only 23 so it’s way too early to know how good he’s going to be. I’m getting a Miguel Cabrera-vibe. That would put Ramirez on the fast-rack to stardom. He won the NL Rookie of the Year last season and has followed that with a monster sophomore campaign. He’s hitting .342 with a whopping 155 OPS+. I’m not sure how the Marlins keep having fire-sales only to end up with players that are better than the ones they got rid of. It is mighty impressive.
Jose Reyes

If I knew for sure that Reyes would be guaranteed to play injury-free until the age of 35, I would call him a “lock”. There isn’t a young player in baseball today—including Miguel Cabrera—who has a better shot at Cooperstown than Reyes. I think he’ll end up being the closest thing to Rickey Henderson that we’ll ever see.

Final Projected Shortstops (3)

Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Miguel Tejada

Projecting A-Rod

It only takes a few mental calculations to figure out that Alex Rodriguez—if he stays healthy—will put up sick career numbers. The number “800” has been thrown around quite often when discussing his final home run count. That number has long been reserved for Sadahuru Oh. It has never been a number discussed with regards to a MLB player—until now. Barry Bonds is 43 and thriving. There is no reason to think that A-Rod can’t thrive to a similar age. If he does, then records will fall.

I’m not sure that most baseball fans realize the pace that A-Rod is on for a number of statistics. So, I’m going to do my best to project what his numbers will look like when he retires. I’m going to assume--like Bonds--that A-Rod plays until he is 43. He may suffer a career-ending injury next week but for projection purposes, I think 43 is more than reasonable.

Here is a ballpark-look at what A-Rod’s career statistics will look like after the 2007 season (I simply used the first 102 games of the ’07 season to project the last 60 to come up with his projected career totals as of the end of 2007):

Projected Career Totals as of the end of 2007

Runs—Hits—Doubles—HRs—RBIs—TB---BB---RC
1512--2253---404----520---1511-4270—913--1637


Since A-Rod has played in 12 full MLB-seasons, I can divide the above totals by 12—and subtract the numbers from his first two partial seasons—to come up with an average season for his career.

Typical season over first 12 full seasons

Runs—Hits—Doubles—HRs—RBIs—TB---BB--RC
124----184----33------43----124--350---75--135


If A-Rod plays until he is 43 (he'll actually turn 44 in July of the 12th year), then that means he’ll have 12 seasons to pad his statistics. I could simply multiply the “typical” season above times 12 but that might result in inflated career numbers. I want these projections to be as realistic and reachable as possible so I’m going to reduce his average season so that these projections will take into consideration a drop-off in production.

Projected typical season from 2008-2019

Runs—Hits—Doubles—HRs—RBIs—TB---BB--RC
110----150----25------35----110--300--70--125


By adding A-Rod's projected statistics over the next 12 years to the numbers he has already amassed in his first 12 years, you get the monstrosity below...


A-Rod's Projected Career Statistics


Runs—Hits—Doubles—HRs—RBIs—TB-----BB---RC
2832---4053--704----880---2831-7870--1753--3155

Here is what the All-Time record books will look like for each statistic if A-Rod meets these projections:

Runs:

1). Alex Rodriguez 2832
2). Rickey Henderson 2295
3). Ty Cobb 2246
4). Barry Bonds 2205 (and counting)
5) tie Hank Aaron 2174
5) tie Babe Ruth 2174

Hits:

1). Pete Rose 4256
2). Ty Cobb 4189
3). Alex Rodriguez 4053
4). Hank Aaron 3771
5). Stan Musial 3630

Doubles:

1). Tris Speaker 792
2). Pete Rose 746
3). Stan Musial 725
4). Ty Cobb 724
5). Alex Rodriguez 704

HRs:

1). Alex Rodriguez 880
2). Hank Aaron 755
3). Barry Bonds 754 (and counting)
4). Babe Ruth 714
5). Willie Mays 660

RBIs:

1). Alex Rodriguez 2831
2). Hank Aaron 2297
3). Babe Ruth 2217
4). Cap Anson 2076
5). Lou Gehrig 1995

Total Bases:

1). Alex Rodriguez 7870
2). Hank Aaron 6856
3). Stan Musial 6134
4). Willie Mays 6066
5). Barry Bonds 5924 (and counting)

Walks:

1). Barry Bonds 2531 (and counting)
2). Rickey Henderson 2190
3). Babe Ruth 2062
4). Ted Williams 2021
5). Joe Morgan 1865
6). Carl Yastrzemski 1845
7). Alex Rodriguez 1753

Runs Created:

1). Alex Rodriguez 3155
2). Babe Ruth 2757
3). Barry Bonds 2659 (and counting)
4). Hank Aaron 2590
5). Stan Musial 2568


Keep in mind that these projections are taking into consideration a drop-off that may or may not exist. Contemporary players have been able to maintain their "prime" production into their late 30s. Since A-Rod very likely has 7+ seasons in his prime remaining, my projections may be on the low end. If that ends up being the case, A-Rod may even challenge Pete Rose for the all-time hits record. Rose's hit total hasn't been challenged but don’t be surprised to hear that number pop up in the near future as a feasible mark for A-Rod. Plus, I believe there are two factors that are present that could significantly increase the odds that A-Rod will break Rose's record. First, I think A-Rod is a "numbers" guy. I am fairly certain that he is always aware of where his career numbers stand. I think he is the kind of guy that has just as many--if not more--individual goals as he does team goals. I can see him sticking around to break records. Second, a friendly battle with Derek Jeter for career hits may ensue resulting in both players playing well into their 40s.

These projections have A-Rod so far ahead of anyone else in HRs, RBIs, Runs, Runs Created, and Total Bases that a significant drop-off in production or even a retirement at 40 would still likely see A-Rod as the all-time leader in those statistics by the time he is finished playing baseball. Interestingly, by the age of 32, Barry Bonds had two-40 HR seasons. Assuming A-Rod hits five more HRs this year, he'll have had eight-40 HR seasons by the age of 32. Additionally, A-Rod has led the league in HR five times. Bonds--in 22 seasons--did it only twice. A career-ending injury could make all of this moot but people should realize that we could be watching the most prolific baseball player of all-time. Most people have probably been too busy booing to even realize it.

MLB Hall of Fame Projections: Second Base

Only Third Base and Catcher have fewer Hall of Fame members than Second Base. Most of the 16 Hall of Fame second basemen played in the first half of the 20th century. In fact, only Rod Carew, Joe Morgan, and Ryne Sandberg didn’t play before the 60s. There are at least two future Hall of Fame second basemen playing right now but both could be out of the league in two years. Assuming Jeff Kent is elected to the HOF, it could be a long time between Kent and the next second baseman elected. The position is still the least offensive-oriented position in the game but I think it is slowly being taken over by pretty good hitters much like what happened to the shortstop position in the 90’s. The days of a defensive-minded player with terrible offensive statistics making it into Cooperstown because his position isn't thought of as an "offensive" positon should be coming to an end. Omar Vizquel will get some pub but hopefully Ozzie Smith was the last member of that club.

I could put together a lengthy list of recognizable second basemen under the “not likely” category (i.e. Luis Castillo, Marcus Giles, Freddy Sanchez) but none of them are even close. It was a stretch to even include Placido Polanco and Jose Vidro in those categories but they were the best of the rest.

Here are the categories that I will be using to breakdown the candidates and a brief description of each category: The “Lock” and “Likely” categories will be counted as being projected into the Hall of Fame. There won’t be too many “Borderline” candidates but I’ll decide those projections on a case by case basis. I will not count players under 25 regardless of my opinion but I’ll identify players under 25 who seem to be off to excellent starts.

Lock: Barring steroid scandal, will be a Hall of Famer
Likely: Player is on the path based on career progression
Borderline: Pretty close to 50/50; or could make a charge
Not Likely: Almost no chance; would take an unexpected resurgence
Under 25: Players that have a good start to a potential HOF career


Active Hall of Fame Second Basemen

Locks (1)

Craig Biggio

Two years ago, I wrote this about Biggio:

“Bill James has Craig Biggio ranked as the 35th best player in baseball history. I think that’s probably a little high but when James says something, it’s usually more true than not. Biggio has been an outstanding second basemen. He’ll easily reach 3,000 hits. He has over 400 stolen bases. He’ll finish with over 600 doubles. He should finish with close to 1,800 runs. Biggio, along with Raffy, is one of the most unheralded player of the 90’s. The only question here is which ballot he makes it on.”

I can’t say anything has changed in how I perceive Biggio. It’ll be a sad day when he retires. Ever since I can remember, Biggio has been in the league.

Likely (1)

Jeff Kent

Kent is probably the greatest power-hitting second baseman ever. He has the most home runs of any second basemen in MLB history. If he plays 2-3 more seasons, he’ll have the most RBIs of any second basemen in MLB history. He’ll finish with 2,500+ hits and close to 600 doubles with a .290 batting average. His OPS is very good for the position at .861. In fact, Kent’s numbers dominate Ryne Sandberg’s numbers and Sandberg is in the Hall of Fame. It would take a steroid scandal to derail Kent’s path to Cooperstown.

Borderline

Alfonso Soriano

If Soriano is remembered for being a second-baseman at the end of his career, then he’s a lock for the HOF. That’s probably why he fought the Nationals so hard when they wanted to move him to the OF. His niche was supposed to be as one of the greatest hitting second basemen of all-time—not as a decent-hitting outfielder. As an outfielder, he has almost no chance. To be fair, Soriano has played three times as many games at second base as he has in the outfield so he still should be grouped as a second baseman when his HOF chances are discussed. The problem is that he has only played five full seasons at second base. Over a 15-year career, five seasons won’t be enough to convince people he should be regarded as a second-baseman. I’m putting his chances right at 50/50—100% as a second baseman, .1% as an outfielder. If I had to make a guess, I would say no so I will not be projecting him in.

Chase Utley

Even though Utley is only 28, he is probably the best hitting second baseman that I have seen. His career OPS is .895 and rising. He didn’t play in more than 100 games until the age of 26 which will likely damage his final career totals. Fortunately for Utley, if there is a position where you don’t need to reach the famed career milestones, it is second base. Utley just needs to play 10-12 more years and he’ll likely have enough peak seasons to make it to Cooperstown. It’s a little early but if he stays healthy, I’m giving him a 50/50 chance but I'm not going to project him in because too many things still need to go right for Utley.

Not Likely

Jose Vidro

Seven years ago, I thought Vidro might be a Hall of Famer in the making. It doesn’t appear it’s going to turn out that way. From 1999-2003, Vidro posted batting averages of .304, .330, .319, .315, and .310. Since many of baseball’s best players have been peaking into their 30s, it was reasonable to assume that Vidro was just entering his prime. As it turned out, that was his prime. He’ll have to settle as being one of the best second basemen in baseball over that five-year period.

Placido Polanco

Polanco has only played more than 129 games in a season twice in his career which is amazing for a guy playing in his tenth season with a .303 career batting average. As one would expect after missing so many games, Polanco’s career numbers are underwhelming. He only has 1,200 hits at the age of 31. The chances of Polanco being selected to the HOF are about .01%. But, I would take him as my starting second baseman any day of the week.

Under 25 to keep an eye on:

Robinson Cano

Cano is only 24. Projecting 16 years into the future is a tall task. I’ll just say that he is about to finish his third full season in the majors with a career batting average of .313. He got an early enough start that if he plays long enough, he’ll be able to put up some impressive career numbers. His power numbers leave a lot to be desired but he’s playing the right position to be a singles and doubles hitter.

Final Projected Second Basemen (2)

Craig Biggio
Jeff Kent

Notre Dame's Replacement

As reported in the MSM this week, Michigan and Notre Dame will be taking a break from each other in 2012 and 2013. Notre Dame has filled the spot of Michigan’s “big-time non-conference football opponent” since 2002. That means Bill Martin will be looking for a big-time replacement in lieu of the Notre Dame hiatus. Many D-1 football schools have their schedules pretty well mapped out through 2011 but very few have things in place for 2012. That leaves more than a few possibilities for Michigan. This hiatus should be an opportunity for fans to see Michigan play a team it rarely plays. Ohio State has recently increased its national reach by scheduling “home and homes” with USC, Miami (FL), Texas, and Virginia Tech. Michigan has the opportunity—at least for two years—to do something similar. I’m excited about the possibilities and I’m hopeful that Martin will come up with a formidable opponent.

Martin has alluded that he will likely be looking for a team of Notre Dame’s caliber. With a couple deductions and a few more assumptions, I think we can narrow down the list of the likely opponents to 10-15 teams. First, I can’t remember the last time an SEC powerhouse came north to play at Michigan, Ohio St. or Penn St. In fact, the last SEC team with a winning record to play at Michigan was in 1980 (S. Carolina). Before that, it was Georgia in 1965. Good SEC teams don’t play on the road in the Big Ten—and I’ll begrudgingly add “vice versa” to the end of that sentence. Anything can happen but I think we can eliminate the SEC as a whole and have good reason to do so.

Notre Dame wants to play Oklahoma in that two-year gap. I doubt Oklahoma will be interested in playing Notre Dame and Michigan in the same year. So, the Sooners are likely out. Florida St. already plays Florida and at West Virginia in 2012. I doubt they’re looking for a team of Michigan’s caliber to go along with that group. So, the Seminoles are likely out.

With the SEC likely out of the equation along with Florida St. and Oklahoma, the potential list of teams shrinks considerably. From my perspective, the remaining teams that could reasonably act as a big-time opponent in 2012 are; Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas, USC, California, West Virginia, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), and Clemson. I realize a few of those teams don’t necessarily fit the profile of an elite program so hopefully they are fallback options only. Louisville and West Virginia are not guaranteed—not that any team really is— to be elite programs in 2012 so scheduling either of them would risk the possibility of having Michigan's best non-conference game end up being a mediocre opponent. That mostly depends on whether Rich Rodriguez stays at WVU and whether Steve Kragthorpe can keep the Louisville program rolling. I’m not sure that California fits the bill as a team worthy of replacing Notre Dame but they may or may not be playing Ohio State in 2012. And like West Virginia, their coach may or may not be Michigan’s coach in 2012.

Wish list of the realistic candidates

1). Texas

Michigan has never played at Texas and Texas has never played at Michigan. In fact, the only meeting between the schools with the most and third most wins in 1-A history happened in the 2005 Rose Bowl. Vince Young fooled with the Michigan defense for a thrilling 38-37 Texas win. That game is widely viewed as one of the most exciting football games in college football history. It would make sense to replace Notre Dame with the team just below it on the all-time list and that’s Texas. Plus, Texas is one of only a handful of teams that Michigan has a losing record against (0-1). This would give Michigan a chance to fix that; although it would take winning both games to accomplish that goal.

2). Va. Tech

Michigan almost scheduled Va. Tech a few years ago but that never ended up happening. I remember reading from a few sources that Michigan backed out but I’m not sure how accurate those claims are. Michigan and Virginia Tech have never played. Virginia Tech is one of best-coached programs in America. They present a challenge in all facets of the game especially on defense and special teams. It would be fantastic to see Michigan play in Blacksburg (preferably a night game) and then see Virginia Tech return the favor in Ann Arbor.

3). Miami (FL)

Among the worst memories of most Michigan football fans—me included—is Michigan’s monumental collapse to #1 Miami (FL) in 1988. Michigan built a 30-14 lead only to lose 31-30. I’m pretty sure that game ripped out part of my soul. Anyhow, Miami has been as good as it gets in college football over the last 25 years. I wouldn’t mind seeing these teams go at it again for another memorable “home and home.” Randy Shannon should have the ‘Canes rolling again by 2012 which would make this game uber-important.

4). USC

I can’t help but to think that scheduling USC in a “home and home” would be a kin to scheduling a loss two years in a row. If Pete Carroll is gone by 2012, then maybe USC becomes mortal. Is it worth scheduling a team like USC if it likely means an early season loss? I’m not so sure. Plus, these teams have played each other ten times including twice in the last four years. Michigan could do a better job of diversifying by playing a different team. Still, if Michigan wants to put itself on the national stage, there is no easier way than to schedule USC.

5). West Virginia

I’m not sure that Martin wants to bank on West Virginia remaining an upper-echelon program for five more years. It’s even possible that Rich Rodriguez might be Michigan’s head coach in five years. Stranger things have happened. I would actually be surprised if I found out Rodriguez was still at West Virginia in 2012. Knowing that, I probably wouldn’t make scheduling West Virginia my top priority. However, Michigan hasn’t played West Virginia in 103 years. The only meeting between the teams featured a narrow Michigan victory by the score of 130-0. West Virginia might have a bitter taste after that one. I would enjoy seeing Michigan play in Morgantown. That is a Blacksburg-type environment that would be fun to watch.


Dark Horse

Clemson

Michigan and Clemson have never played. Death Valley is one of the great scenes in college football. I’m not sure you can ever count on Clemson being a consistent national power but I’m all for seeing Michigan play against teams that it has never played before.


Of course, my list changes significantly if the SEC is in play

LSU

I’ve been waiting for Michigan to play LSU for years. Michigan has never played LSU. In fact, LSU is probably the most high-profile team that Michigan has not played. I was hoping to see this match-up sometime over the last few seasons in a BCS game but it never happened. I’m not sure if Les Miles being LSU’s coach makes this game more or less likely to occur.

Georgia

Georgia has always been my favorite SEC team. They are as close to a Big Ten team as you’ll find in the SEC. Michigan has only played Georgia twice with the last game being in 1965. This would be a chance for 90% of Michigan fans to watch these two traditional powers got at it for the first time.

Alabama

If I had to guess, I would say that Alabama will be a national juggernaut in five years much in the mold of USC. Nick Saban turned LSU into a National Champion and perennial powerhouse. Alabama has a bigger name and tradition than LSU which means Saban might just do even better at ‘Bama.

Florida & Tennessee

It'll be interesting to see if rifts preclude an otherwise great match-up from occurring. My guess is that there is more animosity between the fanbases than there is between the Athletic Departments. Michigan and Tennessee have a history dating back to--and really only has to do with--1997. Phil Fulmer very likely voted Michigan 4th--or at the very least 3rd-- in the final Coaches Poll of Michigan's undefeated season. This, of course, was a likely protest of Charles Woodson's winning the Heisman Trophy over Peyton Manning. Then there is the whole "class vs. no class" issue in how Lloyd Carr and Urban Meyer handled themselves during the BCS uncertainty. There is unquestionably a fragile relationship--at least on the surface--between Michigan and Florida & Tennessee. Whether that keeps their Athletic Departments from discussing a "home and home" is something we'll have to wait and see.

Queue Jim Carty grossly misrepresenting my post while simultaneously insulting my Michigan football knowledge…now!