Thanks to Brian at Mgoblog, we now know that Lloyd Carr’s long-rumored retirement is a full-go. The when, though, is not nearly as certain. Various rumors have Carr retiring anywhere from this Monday to the end of November. While the when might not seem all that “juicy” compared to the news of Carr retiring, it could have a substantial impact on the football program. Most coaching changes involve an athletic director trying to decide exactly when to fire a coach to maximize recruiting efforts (both keeping the current commitments and continuing to recruit effectively until signing day). Since Carr is retiring on his own, exactly when he retires is out of the hands of the Michigan Athletic Department. Carr isn’t being forced out like Bill Callahan at Nebraska. The decision to retire was entirely his and no outside influence—other than Carr’s desire to cease coaching for any number of personal-related reasons—had anything to do with his decision. The national medial—namely ESPN—is not hip to this. Every ESPN “expert” who I have seen comment on this situation seems to think that Carr’s departure is tied to his lack of success against Ohio St. or pressure from unhappy fans and boosters. A question was asked yesterday on College Football Live as to whether this is the right time for Carr to step down because of his struggles against OSU. The national media is framing this whole thing as if Carr is under too much pressure to win. I think people will find out in time that Carr stepping down had nothing to do with on-field success. Bill Martin has said as much as he has repeatedly stated that Carr could coach at Michigan forever. So, the timeline for Michigan’s coaching change is entirely up to Carr.
This unique situation presents a dilemma for Carr and the university. Most scenarios either feature a coach who is fired, asked to resign on his own terms (effectively fired), or announces retirement in advance (i.e. Barry Alvarez). In each of those situations, the athletic director can manipulate the timing to benefit the program the most. In Michigan’s current situation, Carr holds Michigan’s fate in his hands. There are at least two (possibly more although I have not heard any other sides) schools of thought as to what Carr should and/or will do. Clearly in this situation, what’s best for Carr and what’s best for the football program are at odds.
The best possible course of action for Carr is to announce his retirement as soon as possible. Not wanting to steal the spotlight from the Michigan/Ohio St game, Carr has eliminated the possibility of announcing before “The Game.” However, the sooner Carr announces following the game, the better it will be for him in terms of being appropriately acknowledged at Michigan athletic functions and finally being through with hiding such a “bombshell” story and dealing with incessant media speculation. As humble as Carr is, it’s only human to want to go out with at least a small amount of fanfare. Even if that is something as simple as a standing ovation at the Annual Michigan Football Bust. Carr famously has a special relationship with his players. They adulate him and voraciously defend him in the press. He clearly develops a family atmosphere within the football program. As a result, I’m sure he’ll value breaking the news to his players instead of forcing them to ride the media storm of speculation that would surely hound the team if he waited until after the bowl game to announce.
On the other hand, I don’t think there is any question that waiting until after Michigan’s bowl game—even immediately following the bowl game—to announce his retirement is the best course of action for the football program. It isn’t necessarily “best” for this year’s team but rather the football program as a whole. The advantage of Carr retiring later rather than sooner can be broken down into two distinct categories; recruiting and successor. If Carr retires the week after the Ohio State game, that gives other schools the opportunity to send their sleazy recruiters after Michigan’s committed recruits. Michigan can’t exactly ensure the recruits who the next coach will be when they’re at least seven weeks away from naming a new coach assuming Michigan is going to seriously consider Les Miles before making any decision. Carr’s “word” with the committed recruits likely won’t carry a whole lot of weight because a). he’s not their coach anymore and b). he has little-to-no control over the hiring of the next coach. Without anyone to reassure the recruits, things could get dicey in a hurry. Keeping the already-committed recruits is just half of the equation. Michigan’s ability to continue to recruit “targets” will suffer greatly without a head coach in place. High school athletes and their parents don’t live in a vacuum so even if Carr waited until after the bowl game to announce his retirement, they would be asking questions about the rumors. Nevertheless, Carr staying on board until a replacement can be named or at least within a week or two of a replacement being named would carry a heck of a lot more weight than a seven-week period of uncertainty fueled by rumors and speculation. Again, rumors and speculation will likely be present regardless but at least Carr would keep things on an even keel as he already has amid similar speculation over the past few years.
While Carr announcing too early puts Michigan in a bind with recruiting, it also puts Michigan in a bind with Carr’s successor. According to all people with a pulse (excluding LSU’s Athletic Director who seems to be living in a bomb shelter), Les Miles is the top candidate to replace Carr. Unfortunately for Miles (and LSU), he is about to lead LSU to the BCS National Championship game which is approximately 51 days from Michigan’s last regular season game. That means 51 days of the Michigan, LSU, and National media hounding all parties for the scoop. Miles would be bombarded every day for seven weeks about his interest in the now vacant Michigan job. If he thought things were annoying already when Michigan still had a head coach and was in the middle of its season, then wait until he sees what things will be like when Carr retires and the Michigan fan-base and boosters are batting their eyes in the direction of a particular office in Baton Rouge. This puts the Michigan Athletic Department in a tough bind as well because it will have to faux interest in other candidates or deny interest in Miles for seven weeks. That stance will get old fast as the media will likely get suspicious when nothing of note has been accomplished in the search for Carr’s successor for the next seven weeks. This all adds up to a media circus that will likely be bigger than anyone ever thought. If Miles and LSU don’t suffer an upset and end up in the BCS Championship game like everyone expects, then this story will blow up.
There is always the possibility that LSU loses in the next couple weeks, Carr announces his retirement effective immediately, and Miles takes over for the bowl game preparation. Michigan could immediately court Miles, the recruiting season could be saved, and everything could be over by the beginning of December. Sticking around for a National Championship is a lot more rewarding than postponing the inevitable LSU hate-fest that will surely follow Miles’ departure for a lousy BCS game.
Carr has certainly earned the right to go out on his terms. Bill Martin isn’t going to pressure him into delaying his announcement to best suit the program. Nobody is going to “dog” Carr for putting the program in a bit of a bind. The negative effects of one slightly-compromised recruiting class likely won’t mean a whole lot in the long run anyway. And, Miles stands to be the one most adversely affected by a seven-week vacancy in the head coach position at Michigan. I doubt Carr is too concerned with how all of this effects Les Miles. I don’t really care too much how the timeline unfolds. Carr is about to coach his last game and that will be an extremely emotional time for him. The impact of Carr’s timeline seems somewhat trivial now and will seem almost entirely trivial five years from now. It’s just an interesting dynamic to think about. One course of events benefits Carr and another course of events benefits the team. It ironically boils down to Carr choosing between his own wishes and the possible benefits of a football program he just spent 27 years of his life coaching.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Monday, November 12, 2007
Monday Poll Bashin'/Illinois destroys the BCS
There are few things in this world that would cause me to root for Ohio St. to lose the week before the Michigan game. First, the last thing Michigan needs to see is an angry OSU team. Second, beating a 7th ranked OSU team with a 10-1 record just doesn’t have the same ring to it as beating number one ranked and undefeated OSU. However, Illinois’ shocking win in Columbus made all legitimate, undefeated teams extinct. Hawaii’s schedule is softer than Oliver Hardy’s Mark Mangino’s love handles and Kansas’ best win is against 5-5 Oklahoma St. If Kansas beats Missouri and Oklahoma, then we can recognize Kansas. Until then, they are Hawaii II. Thanks to Illinois, the BCS is left with the following one-loss teams to fit into a two-team Championship game; LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio St., Missouri, and Arizona St. The first five teams listed are unlikely to lose again. If Arizona St. beats USC, and Kansas beats Missouri, then we could be looking at seven one-loss teams from BCS conferences at the end of the season—or otherwise known as a BCS-buster. Even better is that of those five teams, there would be a one-loss representative from the SEC, Pac-10, Big XII, Big East, and the Big Ten. The only thing better than pissing off five teams and their respective fan-bases is pissing of five conferences and their respective fan-bases. So, thanks to Ron Zook for making this all possible.
As disappointing as it was to see Michigan pretty much concede the win to Wisconsin before the game even started, Michigan’s tank-job in Madison can end the ludicrous talk that somehow Lloyd Carr should be considered as having done the best coaching job in the country. I’m not sure when “being the first head coach ranked in the top 25 to lose to a I-AA team” and “losing the next game by 32 points at home” became legitimate qualifications for being recognized as a coach-of-the-year candidate but it was certainly materializing with some serious momentum before the Wisconsin-game. He is a good man but that doesn't change the fact that Carr was closer to being the worst coach in 2007 than he was to being the best. Beating a bunch of teams who everyone expected you to beat going into the games and doing it in ugly fashion can only be considered impressive by a few people who may or may not be Mark May or immediate family members of the Michigan coaching staff. Nonetheless, the news that Carr has apparently made it clear to the Athletic Department that he is, indeed, retiring after this season is going to be a huge story. I'll have more on this later.
There isn’t too much to bitch about since the season is almost complete and just about every opinion can be rationalized with the exception of a few head-scratchers. The polls are nearly identical at this point.
Hawaii and Kansas
I mention this every week and I already mentioned this above. Most TV people have already given Hawaii credit for an undefeated season which is equal parts premature and ignorant. Hawaii still has to play Washington and Boise St. While I don’t expect the Huskies to do much damage in Hawaii, I think Boise St. has a 50/50 shot at victory. So, Hawaii may not steal a BCS spot after all. As much as I can’t stand Kansas’ lofty rankings in the polls, it will have a chance to prove its worth very, very soon. Just like Arizona St. had an opportunity to prove it’s metal against Cal, Oregon, UCLA, and this week against USC, Kansas will have the same opportunity against Missouri and Oklahoma. Both are ranked in the top five of the BCS. Win both, and Kansas can take all of the number one votes it wants. However, the seven coaches who voted Kansas #1 are either completely incompetent, or are being savvy in their attempts to undermine the BCS. As much as I would love for it to be the latter, I’m pretty sure it’s the first one.
Missouri over Ohio St.
How does Ohio St. fall behind Missouri? Missouri has won win over a ranked team. Ohio St. has three. Missouri hasn’t beaten a team with less than four losses since September 1. I realize that Missouri beat Illinois and Ohio St. lost to Illinois. However, the Illinois team that Missouri beat on September 1 is hardly the same team that showed up in Columbus last Saturday. For starters, Juice Williams was knocked out of the Missouri game in the second quarter. Still, Missouri only beat Illinois by six. Interestingly, of LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Ohio St., the Buckeyes have the best loss and have beaten the most ranked teams (3, tied with Oregon). The “it doesn’t matter who you lose to but rather when you lose” mantra has never been more present in college football.
The order of the non-Ohio St. Big Ten teams
The Big Ten has five teams ranked in the USA Today poll after having two teams ranked just two weeks ago. Sorting out the non-Ohio St. Big Ten teams that are ranked is no easy task. The four non-OSU Big Ten teams ranked in the AP Poll are Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Penn St. Michigan went 2-1 against the other three losing at Wisconsin without Chad Henne and Mike Hart. Illinois went 2-1 against the other three losing at home to Michigan. Penn St. went 1-2 against the other three destroying Wisconsin 38-7. Wisconsin went 1-2 against the other three. None of the teams have any quality non-conference wins. So, it seems like Michigan and Illinois should be ranked ahead of Wisconsin and Penn St. since both went 2-1 against the other three. Michigan won at Illinois. So, it would be reasonable to rank Michigan ahead of Illinois. However, Illinois did win at Ohio St. If you think that’s enough to jump Illinois over Michigan, then that is at least reasonable. Either way, Michigan and Illinois should be ranked ahead of Wisconsin and Penn St. Penn St. beat Wisconsin by 31. So, the order of these four teams should go Michigan/Illinois (whichever order you want), Penn St., and Wisconsin. None of the polls has it that way instead preferring to do insane things like ranking Wisconsin ahead of Penn St. despite a 31-point loss to Penn St. with the same record.
Virginia
Just when I thought the world was on to Virginia’s fraudulence, both polls handed them the keys to the BCS top 15. Two weeks ago, Virginia lost to NC State—yes, the same NC State team that lost to Central Florida and managed 10 points against Louisville—and fell out of the top 25 only receiving 33 votes in the AP Poll. After a one-point win against Wake Forest and a beat-down of a bad Miami (FL) team, Virginia bolted up to #16 receiving 539 votes. Did Darren McFadden and Matt Ryan transfer to Virginia?
Virginia Tech over Boston College
This erroneous ranking was a direct result of Virginia Tech being ranked too high to begin with. The Hokies had two tests this year. They failed the first one in the form of a 41-point loss to LSU. They failed the second one when they lost to BC at home. Virginia Tech has one notable win and that was against the schizoids at Clemson. Since the polls drop teams x amount of spots after a loss no matter what and raise teams x amount of spots after a win no matter what, the polls couldn’t help but to drop BC behind Va. Tech. Here’s a refresher: Both teams are 8-2. BC won at Virginia Tech two weeks ago.
Texas
There are a number of three-loss teams that should be ranked ahead of Texas. The Longhorns haven’t beaten a ranked team all year. Florida, Kentucky, Michigan and Illinois have two such victories each. With Texas A&M and—in all probability—an unranked SEC team as a bowl opponent, Texas will likely finish the season ranked in the top five without a single victory over a ranked team. Sounds fair.
Navy Rules!
For those of you who missed Navy’s performance on Saturday, let me fill you in on the particulars. Navy was down 21-3 with :33 left in the first quarter against North Texas. Then, from what I understand, Navy got pissed. Over the next three quarters and 33 seconds, Navy scored 71 points. In 28:03 of game-time—or less than a half—the :33 mark of the first quarter and the 2:30 mark of the third quarter, Navy scored 62 points. The Midshipmen finished with 572 yards rushing on 57 attempts. Eight different players scored offensive touchdowns for Navy. Six different players scored a rushing touchdown. Navy had 942 yards of total offense. I would be remised if I didn’t mention that North Texas quarterback Giovanni Vizza threw for 478 yards and eight touchdowns.
As disappointing as it was to see Michigan pretty much concede the win to Wisconsin before the game even started, Michigan’s tank-job in Madison can end the ludicrous talk that somehow Lloyd Carr should be considered as having done the best coaching job in the country. I’m not sure when “being the first head coach ranked in the top 25 to lose to a I-AA team” and “losing the next game by 32 points at home” became legitimate qualifications for being recognized as a coach-of-the-year candidate but it was certainly materializing with some serious momentum before the Wisconsin-game. He is a good man but that doesn't change the fact that Carr was closer to being the worst coach in 2007 than he was to being the best. Beating a bunch of teams who everyone expected you to beat going into the games and doing it in ugly fashion can only be considered impressive by a few people who may or may not be Mark May or immediate family members of the Michigan coaching staff. Nonetheless, the news that Carr has apparently made it clear to the Athletic Department that he is, indeed, retiring after this season is going to be a huge story. I'll have more on this later.
There isn’t too much to bitch about since the season is almost complete and just about every opinion can be rationalized with the exception of a few head-scratchers. The polls are nearly identical at this point.
Hawaii and Kansas
I mention this every week and I already mentioned this above. Most TV people have already given Hawaii credit for an undefeated season which is equal parts premature and ignorant. Hawaii still has to play Washington and Boise St. While I don’t expect the Huskies to do much damage in Hawaii, I think Boise St. has a 50/50 shot at victory. So, Hawaii may not steal a BCS spot after all. As much as I can’t stand Kansas’ lofty rankings in the polls, it will have a chance to prove its worth very, very soon. Just like Arizona St. had an opportunity to prove it’s metal against Cal, Oregon, UCLA, and this week against USC, Kansas will have the same opportunity against Missouri and Oklahoma. Both are ranked in the top five of the BCS. Win both, and Kansas can take all of the number one votes it wants. However, the seven coaches who voted Kansas #1 are either completely incompetent, or are being savvy in their attempts to undermine the BCS. As much as I would love for it to be the latter, I’m pretty sure it’s the first one.
Missouri over Ohio St.
How does Ohio St. fall behind Missouri? Missouri has won win over a ranked team. Ohio St. has three. Missouri hasn’t beaten a team with less than four losses since September 1. I realize that Missouri beat Illinois and Ohio St. lost to Illinois. However, the Illinois team that Missouri beat on September 1 is hardly the same team that showed up in Columbus last Saturday. For starters, Juice Williams was knocked out of the Missouri game in the second quarter. Still, Missouri only beat Illinois by six. Interestingly, of LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Ohio St., the Buckeyes have the best loss and have beaten the most ranked teams (3, tied with Oregon). The “it doesn’t matter who you lose to but rather when you lose” mantra has never been more present in college football.
The order of the non-Ohio St. Big Ten teams
The Big Ten has five teams ranked in the USA Today poll after having two teams ranked just two weeks ago. Sorting out the non-Ohio St. Big Ten teams that are ranked is no easy task. The four non-OSU Big Ten teams ranked in the AP Poll are Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Penn St. Michigan went 2-1 against the other three losing at Wisconsin without Chad Henne and Mike Hart. Illinois went 2-1 against the other three losing at home to Michigan. Penn St. went 1-2 against the other three destroying Wisconsin 38-7. Wisconsin went 1-2 against the other three. None of the teams have any quality non-conference wins. So, it seems like Michigan and Illinois should be ranked ahead of Wisconsin and Penn St. since both went 2-1 against the other three. Michigan won at Illinois. So, it would be reasonable to rank Michigan ahead of Illinois. However, Illinois did win at Ohio St. If you think that’s enough to jump Illinois over Michigan, then that is at least reasonable. Either way, Michigan and Illinois should be ranked ahead of Wisconsin and Penn St. Penn St. beat Wisconsin by 31. So, the order of these four teams should go Michigan/Illinois (whichever order you want), Penn St., and Wisconsin. None of the polls has it that way instead preferring to do insane things like ranking Wisconsin ahead of Penn St. despite a 31-point loss to Penn St. with the same record.
Virginia
Just when I thought the world was on to Virginia’s fraudulence, both polls handed them the keys to the BCS top 15. Two weeks ago, Virginia lost to NC State—yes, the same NC State team that lost to Central Florida and managed 10 points against Louisville—and fell out of the top 25 only receiving 33 votes in the AP Poll. After a one-point win against Wake Forest and a beat-down of a bad Miami (FL) team, Virginia bolted up to #16 receiving 539 votes. Did Darren McFadden and Matt Ryan transfer to Virginia?
Virginia Tech over Boston College
This erroneous ranking was a direct result of Virginia Tech being ranked too high to begin with. The Hokies had two tests this year. They failed the first one in the form of a 41-point loss to LSU. They failed the second one when they lost to BC at home. Virginia Tech has one notable win and that was against the schizoids at Clemson. Since the polls drop teams x amount of spots after a loss no matter what and raise teams x amount of spots after a win no matter what, the polls couldn’t help but to drop BC behind Va. Tech. Here’s a refresher: Both teams are 8-2. BC won at Virginia Tech two weeks ago.
Texas
There are a number of three-loss teams that should be ranked ahead of Texas. The Longhorns haven’t beaten a ranked team all year. Florida, Kentucky, Michigan and Illinois have two such victories each. With Texas A&M and—in all probability—an unranked SEC team as a bowl opponent, Texas will likely finish the season ranked in the top five without a single victory over a ranked team. Sounds fair.
Navy Rules!
For those of you who missed Navy’s performance on Saturday, let me fill you in on the particulars. Navy was down 21-3 with :33 left in the first quarter against North Texas. Then, from what I understand, Navy got pissed. Over the next three quarters and 33 seconds, Navy scored 71 points. In 28:03 of game-time—or less than a half—the :33 mark of the first quarter and the 2:30 mark of the third quarter, Navy scored 62 points. The Midshipmen finished with 572 yards rushing on 57 attempts. Eight different players scored offensive touchdowns for Navy. Six different players scored a rushing touchdown. Navy had 942 yards of total offense. I would be remised if I didn’t mention that North Texas quarterback Giovanni Vizza threw for 478 yards and eight touchdowns.
Thursday, November 08, 2007
The Lions are finally not terrible
The fact that the Lions are—at the very least—a decent team is awesome. Since Barry Sanders tore my still-beating heart from my body and ate it Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom-style retired, the NFL has been a letdown every season. When your team sets the record for “worst five-year stretch” in NFL history among other notable achievements in futility, everything else in professional football ceases to be enjoyable. That is one of the first things that I noticed when the Lions started winning this season. Obviously, winning makes fans happier which in turn makes everything more enjoyable including the simple act of breathing and eating doughnuts. However, the fact that other games actually matter to the Lions now changes everything. Instead of watching a Packers-Redskins game and wondering why the NFL even exists, I can actually view the match-up as a game featuring possible playoff opponents. Whereas in most seasons, a Redskins game would put me to sleep, the fact that they are only one game behind Detroit with the tiebreaker advantage makes their games important. The Lions being competitive again allows fans to take part in the whole NFL experience again. The last Saturday in April (the NFL Draft) used to be the playoffs, Super Bowl, and off-season wrapped up in one for Lions fans. I’m used to focusing on the draft starting in week three of the regular season. Since #20 left (or since Millen arrived if you prefer), every game after week four or five had the same significance whether it was against a good or a bad team: none. The presence of the Giants, Packers (2), Chargers and Cowboys on the remaining schedule used to just be another way of saying, “0-5.” Now, it means an opportunity for the Lions to play their way into the playoffs.
As happy as I am that the Lions are winning, I’m equally pleased with the way it has happened and the manner in which the success has been treated and accepted by the fans, media, and players. I read a quote the other day from a Lions player—I can’t remember who said it or where it was printed so please don’t hurt me Chris McCosky—that expressed satisfaction at the idea that the Lions were finally giving their fans something to cheer about. Lions fans have been pissed off for six years. They had a right to be. The fact that the current players acknowledge that right and appreciate what the fans have been through makes it easy to support this bunch.
The media has also treated the Lions success the right way. The players have been annoyed—and I can see their point—with the relative skepticism shown by the local media. I would be disappointed if the media wasn’t skeptical. Six years of misery and failure doesn’t get thrown out the window because of one good eight-game stretch or even one good season. Millen isn’t all of a sudden a great GM. The players have not earned the right to never be criticized or second-guessed again. The Lions are winning right now. If that keeps happening this season and next, then perceptions can start to change. Only then can Millen be viewed as a good GM or as having done a good job. Only then can the players be given the benefit of the doubt.
The Lions have matured as the season has progressed. That maturation has happened on the field and on the sidelines. The team has started to rely on the running game which has yielded a more balanced and effective attack. The defense is putting pressure on the quarterback which is the hallmark of a good defense. Granted, the Lions have not beaten a slew of great teams. In fact, I’m not sure that the Lions haven’t even beaten a single “good” team. However, good teams are supposed to beat the bad teams. The Lions have done that. Clearly, the debacles at Philly (L 56-21) and at Washington (L 34-3) are worrisome. This team still has to play its best game to even have a chance against good teams. I presume, though, that at least half of the teams in the NFL would gladly change places with the Lions. This isn’t a talent-less team like the last Lions team to finish above .500 (2000). This team has talent. This team has a very good and sometimes dominating defense. This team has playmakers all over the field. One could look at the current version of the Lions and make a pretty good comparison to the ’05 Tigers. People who follow baseball closely knew the Tigers were heading for an explosion in the not-so-distant future. I get the same feeling with this team. Obviously, there are positions that need to be improved and personnel obstacles that will need to be overcome. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the offense if/when Mike Martz leaves for another tour as a head coach. It takes 2-3 years to install his offense. The Lions are still getting used to everything his offense entails. If he leaves, it’s possible that the offense will undergo a change in philosophy which will likely cause some stagnation. Jon Kitna is much better than anyone thought he’d be. He clearly has a grasp of the offense. He has a tremendous amount of confidence. However, he probably has a shelf-life of two or three years. When he moves on, the Lions will need to bring in a capable replacement or everything could go south in a hurry. Fortunately, those are problems that all teams face—even good ones.
This team is young and talented. It appears to have a man with a winning vision at the helm (Marinelli). I don’t think this version of the Lions is going to resemble the “win one year and lose the next” version that we had to endure in the 90’s. This might just be the first consistently good Lions franchise in most of our lifetimes. It’ll be interesting to see if all of this comes to fruition because Millen will need to get the credit. Nobody has ever been more publicly maligned than Millen—and deservedly so. However, if he can do something that nobody has ever been able to do since the NFL/AFL merger—turn the Lions into a winning franchise—then he will be a hero in Detroit. And really, Millen’s failure thus far has been no different than Ilitch’s decade-long failure as the Tigers’ owner. The only difference is that Ilitch had the Red Wings to mask the failures of the Tigers. Plus, doing a terrible job does not preordain someone to doing a terrible job forever. Bill Belichick is a perfect example of that.
The remaining schedule is not easy. I can say—with a decent amount of confidence—that the Lions are going to beat my best-case scenario prediction before the season (which was seven wins). I have never been happier to be wrong. However, the Lions have a lot of work to do if they are going to even sniff the 10-win mark as predicted by Kitna. I’m starting to think that the Lions will have to do just that to make the playoffs. The way it looks now, there is one playoff spot open in the NFC. The Packers, Cowboys, Saints, and Seahawks will probably end up being the Division winners. The Giants appear to be on their way to one of the Wild Card spots. That leaves the Lions, Redskins, Bucs, and Panthers to fight for the last Wild Card spot. The Lions hold the tiebreaker over the Bucs and the Redskins hold the tiebreaker over the Lions. Hopefully, the Bucs can beat the ‘Skins on November 25 which would give the Lions a reprieve if all three teams finish with the same record. The Lions have—by far—the most difficult schedule of the group. The Bucs have—by far—the easiest schedule. The Bucs get Atlanta (2), Houston, and San Francisco. Even their more difficult opponents aren’t the greatest in Carolina, New Orleans and Washington. The Lions have the Packers (2), Chargers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Giants. All are .500 or better. The Lions also have to play at Adrian Peterson. That makes this week’s game at Arizona the most important Lions game in seven years. Win and the Lions can afford to close out the season 2-4 and still have a pretty good chance at the last Wild Card spot. Lose and the Lions will have to split against one of the most difficult end-of-season schedules in the league. The good news is that, win or lose this week at Arizona, the game the following week against the NY Giants immediately becomes the most important Lions game in seven years. I can get used to this flirtation with hyperbole. It’s much more exciting than preparing for the draft in late-September.
As happy as I am that the Lions are winning, I’m equally pleased with the way it has happened and the manner in which the success has been treated and accepted by the fans, media, and players. I read a quote the other day from a Lions player—I can’t remember who said it or where it was printed so please don’t hurt me Chris McCosky—that expressed satisfaction at the idea that the Lions were finally giving their fans something to cheer about. Lions fans have been pissed off for six years. They had a right to be. The fact that the current players acknowledge that right and appreciate what the fans have been through makes it easy to support this bunch.
The media has also treated the Lions success the right way. The players have been annoyed—and I can see their point—with the relative skepticism shown by the local media. I would be disappointed if the media wasn’t skeptical. Six years of misery and failure doesn’t get thrown out the window because of one good eight-game stretch or even one good season. Millen isn’t all of a sudden a great GM. The players have not earned the right to never be criticized or second-guessed again. The Lions are winning right now. If that keeps happening this season and next, then perceptions can start to change. Only then can Millen be viewed as a good GM or as having done a good job. Only then can the players be given the benefit of the doubt.
The Lions have matured as the season has progressed. That maturation has happened on the field and on the sidelines. The team has started to rely on the running game which has yielded a more balanced and effective attack. The defense is putting pressure on the quarterback which is the hallmark of a good defense. Granted, the Lions have not beaten a slew of great teams. In fact, I’m not sure that the Lions haven’t even beaten a single “good” team. However, good teams are supposed to beat the bad teams. The Lions have done that. Clearly, the debacles at Philly (L 56-21) and at Washington (L 34-3) are worrisome. This team still has to play its best game to even have a chance against good teams. I presume, though, that at least half of the teams in the NFL would gladly change places with the Lions. This isn’t a talent-less team like the last Lions team to finish above .500 (2000). This team has talent. This team has a very good and sometimes dominating defense. This team has playmakers all over the field. One could look at the current version of the Lions and make a pretty good comparison to the ’05 Tigers. People who follow baseball closely knew the Tigers were heading for an explosion in the not-so-distant future. I get the same feeling with this team. Obviously, there are positions that need to be improved and personnel obstacles that will need to be overcome. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the offense if/when Mike Martz leaves for another tour as a head coach. It takes 2-3 years to install his offense. The Lions are still getting used to everything his offense entails. If he leaves, it’s possible that the offense will undergo a change in philosophy which will likely cause some stagnation. Jon Kitna is much better than anyone thought he’d be. He clearly has a grasp of the offense. He has a tremendous amount of confidence. However, he probably has a shelf-life of two or three years. When he moves on, the Lions will need to bring in a capable replacement or everything could go south in a hurry. Fortunately, those are problems that all teams face—even good ones.
This team is young and talented. It appears to have a man with a winning vision at the helm (Marinelli). I don’t think this version of the Lions is going to resemble the “win one year and lose the next” version that we had to endure in the 90’s. This might just be the first consistently good Lions franchise in most of our lifetimes. It’ll be interesting to see if all of this comes to fruition because Millen will need to get the credit. Nobody has ever been more publicly maligned than Millen—and deservedly so. However, if he can do something that nobody has ever been able to do since the NFL/AFL merger—turn the Lions into a winning franchise—then he will be a hero in Detroit. And really, Millen’s failure thus far has been no different than Ilitch’s decade-long failure as the Tigers’ owner. The only difference is that Ilitch had the Red Wings to mask the failures of the Tigers. Plus, doing a terrible job does not preordain someone to doing a terrible job forever. Bill Belichick is a perfect example of that.
The remaining schedule is not easy. I can say—with a decent amount of confidence—that the Lions are going to beat my best-case scenario prediction before the season (which was seven wins). I have never been happier to be wrong. However, the Lions have a lot of work to do if they are going to even sniff the 10-win mark as predicted by Kitna. I’m starting to think that the Lions will have to do just that to make the playoffs. The way it looks now, there is one playoff spot open in the NFC. The Packers, Cowboys, Saints, and Seahawks will probably end up being the Division winners. The Giants appear to be on their way to one of the Wild Card spots. That leaves the Lions, Redskins, Bucs, and Panthers to fight for the last Wild Card spot. The Lions hold the tiebreaker over the Bucs and the Redskins hold the tiebreaker over the Lions. Hopefully, the Bucs can beat the ‘Skins on November 25 which would give the Lions a reprieve if all three teams finish with the same record. The Lions have—by far—the most difficult schedule of the group. The Bucs have—by far—the easiest schedule. The Bucs get Atlanta (2), Houston, and San Francisco. Even their more difficult opponents aren’t the greatest in Carolina, New Orleans and Washington. The Lions have the Packers (2), Chargers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Giants. All are .500 or better. The Lions also have to play at Adrian Peterson. That makes this week’s game at Arizona the most important Lions game in seven years. Win and the Lions can afford to close out the season 2-4 and still have a pretty good chance at the last Wild Card spot. Lose and the Lions will have to split against one of the most difficult end-of-season schedules in the league. The good news is that, win or lose this week at Arizona, the game the following week against the NY Giants immediately becomes the most important Lions game in seven years. I can get used to this flirtation with hyperbole. It’s much more exciting than preparing for the draft in late-September.
Monday, November 05, 2007
Monday Poll Bashin'/Morgan Trent needs to run faster
For the first time this year, nothing too crazy happened in college football other than Darren McFadden rushing for 321 yards, Jim Brandstatter saying that Terrance Taylor—possibly the strongest player in Michigan football history—needs to get stronger, and George Blaha saying that Morgan Trent “isn’t as fast as you’d like him to be.” I don’t think anyone was too shocked with the Florida St. upset of Boston College. BC had no business being ranked #2 and it was just a matter of time before one of the mediocre teams left on the schedule beat them. The results of this week cleared up the BCS picture big-time. The way I see it, we’re looking at a three-team race to the BCS Championship game. Oregon has a relatively easy three-game stretch against Arizona, UCLA, and Washington St. If either LSU or Ohio St. falters, then Oregon will likely sneak into the top two. LSU has a fairly easy three-game finish of its own against La. Tech, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. The SEC Championship game makes things a little more difficult but LSU should be able to handle Georgia or Tennessee. If Florida sneaks in, then LSU has problems. Ohio St. should take care of Illinois and Michigan. So, the BCS Championship game will very likely be a combination of Ohio St., LSU and Oregon. There is a pretty good chance that West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Boston College will have one-loss each which would create a nightmare for the BCS (woo hoo!) But—as Kirk Herbstreit points out—the BCS is perfect because the regular season is a playoff. Unless—of course— the BCS prevents five one-loss teams from playing for the championship because of “public perception”. That definitely sounds like a playoff to me.
There is another situation that could happen that would create a media hurricane. Let’s assume that LSU and Ohio St. win-out creating a Tigers-Buckeyes BCS Championship game. Then, let’s assume that Oregon wins out. For the final ingredient, let’s also assume that Lloyd Carr retires after the Ohio St. game. That situation would create three monstrous storylines that would get beaten to death by the MSM.
1). Oregon would be left out of the BCS Championship game for the second time because of the fabulous BCS system that Herbstreit thinks is so fair. Many people—including around 45% of voters—feel that Oregon is better than LSU. This would be the biggest blow to the BCS, yet. Herbstreit’s non-playoff playoff idea of a “plus-one” game would very much be on the table after a debacle like that.
2). Much has been made of the 51-day layoff that Ohio St. has between the “The Game” and the BCS Championship game. That number becomes more interesting if Lloyd Carr retires and LSU plays in the BCS Championship game. That’s 51 days that Les Miles will have to field daily questions about his interest in the Michigan job. The Michigan media will obviously be all over that story for the majority of those 51 days. If this scenario plays out, things are going to get very interesting. However, I’m guessing that Carr would wait until after the bowl games to help Michigan’s recruiting efforts and to keep Miles from having to go through 51 days of hell. Carr is considerate like that.
3). As if storyline #2 isn’t already crazy enough, Miles could be coaching against Michigan’s all-time nemesis in the BCS Championship game. If Miles beats Tressel in the BCS Championship and then leaves Baton Rouge for Ann Arbor, you can expect Miles to be crowned the Ohio St.-killer the second he steps foot into town. He would have all of the fanfare that Tressel had after he beat Michigan for the first time without having coached a single game at Michigan.
The polls weren’t too ludicrous this week but there is some weak rationalizing going on. So, here goes…
BC over ASU
Boston College really had no business being ranked four spots ahead of Arizona St. last week. Both teams were undefeated. Neither team had faced a particularly daunting schedule. After this weekend, BC has no business being ranked ahead of Arizona St. at all. BC lost to an unranked Florida St. team by 10 at home. Arizona St. lost to the #3 team in the country on the road by 12. Which one is more impressive to you?
Alabama over FSU
Florida St. should be ranked ahead of Alabama. Both teams are 6-3. Florida St. beat Boston College on the road which is more impressive than any Alabama-win. Florida St. also beat Alabama.
Missouri and Kansas are ranked too high
Hawaii has no business being ranked for obvious reasons. However, if you’re buying that, then you should probably buy Kansas not deserving to be ranked in the top 15. Kansas has the 107th toughest schedule in the country according to the Sagarin ratings. Kansas hasn’t beaten a single team with less than four losses. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Kansas is a top-ten team. Missouri has faced an equally inept schedule with the minor exception that Mizzou had to play Oklahoma and Kansas doesn’t. Not surprisingly, Missouri lost to Oklahoma by 10. Kansas and Missouri have combined to beat zero ranked teams. I wish the pollsters would have the self-control to withhold judgment on these two teams until they actually beat a formidable team. However, with Hawaii ranked #14, I guess I should be surprised that Kansas isn’t ranked #2. If beating nobody gets you into the top-five, then Illinois should separate from the Big Ten, become and Independent, and schedule 12 non-BCS schools and get into the top-ten every year. Texas A&M might want to think about that, too. In fact, everyone but Ohio St—they obviously don’t need to—should do that.
Texas jumps Michigan for no reason
I’m not a believer in the idea that “it doesn’t matter how you get something right, it just matters that you get it right.” For example, just because the AP moved Michigan ahead of Texas this week—which is the way it should be—doesn’t mean it made sense to do it. Texas was inexplicably ranked ahead of Michigan last week—and for every week previous—despite Texas having zero wins over ranked teams or a team that could even remotely be considered good. Michigan’s wins over Illinois, Penn St., and Purdue—albeit not the greatest collection of wins—are all better than any of Texas’ wins. This week, Texas beat Oklahoma St. on the road by three. Michigan beat Michigan St. on the road by four. Oklahoma St. is viewed by most as a better team than Michigan St. So, how does Michigan leap Texas? It’s not like a couple voters changed their minds either. Michigan picked up 50 votes on Texas just this week alone. Are we to believe that Texas was finally exposed as being resume-challenged by beating Okie St. on the road by three—its best win of the year by far—while Michigan was credited for a courageous four-point win on the road against Sparty? Michigan should be ranked ahead of Texas but not because of what happened this week.
Va. Tech, Florida over Auburn, Hawaii
Instead of wasting a bunch of time and space on things that have been constants in my Monday Poll Bashin’ posts, I’ll just quickly bunch these together. Va. Tech has a weak resume and should be outside of the top-15. Auburn beat Florida on the road and has the same record. Auburn should be ranked ahead of Florida. Hawaii has the easiest schedule of all-time (or something like that) and needed overtime to beat La. Tech and San Jose St.
There is another situation that could happen that would create a media hurricane. Let’s assume that LSU and Ohio St. win-out creating a Tigers-Buckeyes BCS Championship game. Then, let’s assume that Oregon wins out. For the final ingredient, let’s also assume that Lloyd Carr retires after the Ohio St. game. That situation would create three monstrous storylines that would get beaten to death by the MSM.
1). Oregon would be left out of the BCS Championship game for the second time because of the fabulous BCS system that Herbstreit thinks is so fair. Many people—including around 45% of voters—feel that Oregon is better than LSU. This would be the biggest blow to the BCS, yet. Herbstreit’s non-playoff playoff idea of a “plus-one” game would very much be on the table after a debacle like that.
2). Much has been made of the 51-day layoff that Ohio St. has between the “The Game” and the BCS Championship game. That number becomes more interesting if Lloyd Carr retires and LSU plays in the BCS Championship game. That’s 51 days that Les Miles will have to field daily questions about his interest in the Michigan job. The Michigan media will obviously be all over that story for the majority of those 51 days. If this scenario plays out, things are going to get very interesting. However, I’m guessing that Carr would wait until after the bowl games to help Michigan’s recruiting efforts and to keep Miles from having to go through 51 days of hell. Carr is considerate like that.
3). As if storyline #2 isn’t already crazy enough, Miles could be coaching against Michigan’s all-time nemesis in the BCS Championship game. If Miles beats Tressel in the BCS Championship and then leaves Baton Rouge for Ann Arbor, you can expect Miles to be crowned the Ohio St.-killer the second he steps foot into town. He would have all of the fanfare that Tressel had after he beat Michigan for the first time without having coached a single game at Michigan.
The polls weren’t too ludicrous this week but there is some weak rationalizing going on. So, here goes…
BC over ASU
Boston College really had no business being ranked four spots ahead of Arizona St. last week. Both teams were undefeated. Neither team had faced a particularly daunting schedule. After this weekend, BC has no business being ranked ahead of Arizona St. at all. BC lost to an unranked Florida St. team by 10 at home. Arizona St. lost to the #3 team in the country on the road by 12. Which one is more impressive to you?
Alabama over FSU
Florida St. should be ranked ahead of Alabama. Both teams are 6-3. Florida St. beat Boston College on the road which is more impressive than any Alabama-win. Florida St. also beat Alabama.
Missouri and Kansas are ranked too high
Hawaii has no business being ranked for obvious reasons. However, if you’re buying that, then you should probably buy Kansas not deserving to be ranked in the top 15. Kansas has the 107th toughest schedule in the country according to the Sagarin ratings. Kansas hasn’t beaten a single team with less than four losses. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that Kansas is a top-ten team. Missouri has faced an equally inept schedule with the minor exception that Mizzou had to play Oklahoma and Kansas doesn’t. Not surprisingly, Missouri lost to Oklahoma by 10. Kansas and Missouri have combined to beat zero ranked teams. I wish the pollsters would have the self-control to withhold judgment on these two teams until they actually beat a formidable team. However, with Hawaii ranked #14, I guess I should be surprised that Kansas isn’t ranked #2. If beating nobody gets you into the top-five, then Illinois should separate from the Big Ten, become and Independent, and schedule 12 non-BCS schools and get into the top-ten every year. Texas A&M might want to think about that, too. In fact, everyone but Ohio St—they obviously don’t need to—should do that.
Texas jumps Michigan for no reason
I’m not a believer in the idea that “it doesn’t matter how you get something right, it just matters that you get it right.” For example, just because the AP moved Michigan ahead of Texas this week—which is the way it should be—doesn’t mean it made sense to do it. Texas was inexplicably ranked ahead of Michigan last week—and for every week previous—despite Texas having zero wins over ranked teams or a team that could even remotely be considered good. Michigan’s wins over Illinois, Penn St., and Purdue—albeit not the greatest collection of wins—are all better than any of Texas’ wins. This week, Texas beat Oklahoma St. on the road by three. Michigan beat Michigan St. on the road by four. Oklahoma St. is viewed by most as a better team than Michigan St. So, how does Michigan leap Texas? It’s not like a couple voters changed their minds either. Michigan picked up 50 votes on Texas just this week alone. Are we to believe that Texas was finally exposed as being resume-challenged by beating Okie St. on the road by three—its best win of the year by far—while Michigan was credited for a courageous four-point win on the road against Sparty? Michigan should be ranked ahead of Texas but not because of what happened this week.
Va. Tech, Florida over Auburn, Hawaii
Instead of wasting a bunch of time and space on things that have been constants in my Monday Poll Bashin’ posts, I’ll just quickly bunch these together. Va. Tech has a weak resume and should be outside of the top-15. Auburn beat Florida on the road and has the same record. Auburn should be ranked ahead of Florida. Hawaii has the easiest schedule of all-time (or something like that) and needed overtime to beat La. Tech and San Jose St.
Thursday, November 01, 2007
Tigers transformation to Marlins is almost complete
The Tigers were quick to acquire the shortstop that would enable the club to finally move Carlos Guillen to first-base permanently. Acquiring Edgar Renteria dually shores up the infield and effectively removes the Tigers from the A-Rod Sweepstakes. With the Yankees and Tigers out of the picture, it looks like A-Rod will either go to the Dodgers, Cubs, or Angels. Scott Boras can’t be too pleased with an audience of three teams. That seriously reduces his bargaining power. Nonetheless, the Tigers picked up Renteria in almost the exact same way they did Sheffield last season. They did it quick—even quicker than the Sheffield trade—and had to part with some pretty good prospects. Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland clearly look for familiar players who have helped them win in the past. It’s no coincidence that Sheffield and Renteria were both members of the ’97 Florida Marlins in which Jim Leyland was the Manager and Dave Dombrowski was the General Manager. Unfortunately for them, the number of productive ex-’97 Marlins who are left to acquire is basically zero. That means the Tigers will have to get creative next off-season. I’ll be looking forward to that especially with another ex- Marlin (Pudge) and his $13 million coming off the payroll.
My first reaction to the trade was basically the same reaction I had to the Sheffield trade last season. It seems steep. Although, Sheffield is more important and came at a cheaper price. Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez are big-time prospects. Jurrjens was considerably more advanced than Hernandez but both were known commodities around MLB. The Tigers have a surplus of pitching in the organization with Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello still waiting to get into the starting rotation. Losing Jurrjens stings in the sense that it immediately downgrades the overall talent level in the minors but it won’t affect the Tigers chances of winning a World Series in the near future. The Sheffield trade—giving up Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan, and Anthony Claggett—brought the same dynamic. The Tigers lucked-out when Sanchez suffered a serious elbow injury for the Yankees but considering Sheffield's health--or lack thereof--the winner of that trade is still uncertain. Losing prospects like Sanchez and Jurrjens is especially difficult for Tigers fans because for 20+ years, there wasn’t but one or two players who were as good as either. We’re not used to seeing the “future” traded away. Any time a player like Juan Encarnacion, Gabe Kapler, or Justin Thompson came along, the Tigers held on to them like they were gold. Fortunately, the Tigers have legitimate “prospects” now and equally fortunate is the fact that the Tigers are good enough to be able to trade away those prospects without incurring years of regret. The Tigers traded away John Smoltz 20 years ago and—because the organization was run into the ground—it has been a notorious trade ever since. Even if Jurrjens turns into the next Smoltz, or Hernandez becomes the next Torii Hunter, fans will be too busy cheering for the Tigers in October to dwell on a trade gone awry.
I’m remorseful to see Jurrjens and Hernandez go; Jurrjens especially. He has great command, a 95-MPH fastball, and the confidence to match. I think he’ll end up being a pretty good pitcher. However, you have to give to get. The Tigers needed a bona fide shortstop and the price for one of those is clearly not cheap. My concern is that Renteria isn’t a top-tier shortstop. The Tigers didn’t just seek anyone to replace Guillen. The goal was to come close to replacing Guillen’s power and/or drastically improve the position defensively. I’m not sure Renteria does either. His career OPS+ is 97. He has had three above-average seasons in 12 years. He is extremely inconsistent from year to year as you can expect anything from an OPS+ of 77 to 130. He is coming off the second-best season of his career as he posted an OPS+ of 125. His best season came in 2003 in which he produced an OPS+ of 130. He followed that with two miserable seasons.
I don’t mind giving up prospects for a proven commodity. The current depth in the Tigers system allows for that trade-off. However, in this instance, I do at least slightly mind giving up Jurrjens and Hernandez for Renteria. According to Bill at The Detroit Tigers Weblog, the Tigers picked up 2 to 2.5 wins by essentially replacing Guillen’s defense and Sean Casey’s bat with Renteria. Two wins isn’t anything to scoff at but given Renteria’s unreliability from year to year, a two-win improvement is no guarantee. Plus, it’s not like the Braves had all the leverage in this deal and the Tigers had none. The Braves were actively trying to unload Renteria because Yunel Escobar—a promising, young shortstop in the Braves organization—was ready to take over. Given Renteria’s unreliability and Escobar’s pending promotion, it seems a little much to give up Jurrjens and Hernandez.
If I were a Braves fan, I would be elated with this deal. Not only does Escobar get to move into the shortstop position on an everyday basis, but the Braves also picked up a top-of-the-line pitching prospect and a centerfielder who has been drawing rave reviews ever since he stepped foot in the minor leagues. Players like Renteria are relatively easy to find. This trade isn’t going to cripple the Tigers. The chances are actually very good that this trade will have a net impact of zero or slightly positive. That said, I don’t think there is any doubt that the Braves got the better end of this deal.
After quickly acquiring Sheffield early in the off-season last year, the Tigers were done with major acquisitions despite some speculation to the contrary. The same could be the case this year at least offensively. Although, the recent revelation that Joel Zumaya might miss at least half of the 2008 season makes finding a good-to-great relief-pitcher a high priority. Said injury might increase the odds that the Tigers will make a run at Mariano Rivera. The Tigers have long been rumored to be searching for a left-fielder but the combination of Marcus Thames and Timo Perez apparently seems somewhat manageable to the front-office. Plus, with the payroll at an all-time high (well over $100 million) and the increased need to find bullpen help, I think the offense is pretty much the way it’ll look on opening day.
My first reaction to the trade was basically the same reaction I had to the Sheffield trade last season. It seems steep. Although, Sheffield is more important and came at a cheaper price. Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez are big-time prospects. Jurrjens was considerably more advanced than Hernandez but both were known commodities around MLB. The Tigers have a surplus of pitching in the organization with Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello still waiting to get into the starting rotation. Losing Jurrjens stings in the sense that it immediately downgrades the overall talent level in the minors but it won’t affect the Tigers chances of winning a World Series in the near future. The Sheffield trade—giving up Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan, and Anthony Claggett—brought the same dynamic. The Tigers lucked-out when Sanchez suffered a serious elbow injury for the Yankees but considering Sheffield's health--or lack thereof--the winner of that trade is still uncertain. Losing prospects like Sanchez and Jurrjens is especially difficult for Tigers fans because for 20+ years, there wasn’t but one or two players who were as good as either. We’re not used to seeing the “future” traded away. Any time a player like Juan Encarnacion, Gabe Kapler, or Justin Thompson came along, the Tigers held on to them like they were gold. Fortunately, the Tigers have legitimate “prospects” now and equally fortunate is the fact that the Tigers are good enough to be able to trade away those prospects without incurring years of regret. The Tigers traded away John Smoltz 20 years ago and—because the organization was run into the ground—it has been a notorious trade ever since. Even if Jurrjens turns into the next Smoltz, or Hernandez becomes the next Torii Hunter, fans will be too busy cheering for the Tigers in October to dwell on a trade gone awry.
I’m remorseful to see Jurrjens and Hernandez go; Jurrjens especially. He has great command, a 95-MPH fastball, and the confidence to match. I think he’ll end up being a pretty good pitcher. However, you have to give to get. The Tigers needed a bona fide shortstop and the price for one of those is clearly not cheap. My concern is that Renteria isn’t a top-tier shortstop. The Tigers didn’t just seek anyone to replace Guillen. The goal was to come close to replacing Guillen’s power and/or drastically improve the position defensively. I’m not sure Renteria does either. His career OPS+ is 97. He has had three above-average seasons in 12 years. He is extremely inconsistent from year to year as you can expect anything from an OPS+ of 77 to 130. He is coming off the second-best season of his career as he posted an OPS+ of 125. His best season came in 2003 in which he produced an OPS+ of 130. He followed that with two miserable seasons.
I don’t mind giving up prospects for a proven commodity. The current depth in the Tigers system allows for that trade-off. However, in this instance, I do at least slightly mind giving up Jurrjens and Hernandez for Renteria. According to Bill at The Detroit Tigers Weblog, the Tigers picked up 2 to 2.5 wins by essentially replacing Guillen’s defense and Sean Casey’s bat with Renteria. Two wins isn’t anything to scoff at but given Renteria’s unreliability from year to year, a two-win improvement is no guarantee. Plus, it’s not like the Braves had all the leverage in this deal and the Tigers had none. The Braves were actively trying to unload Renteria because Yunel Escobar—a promising, young shortstop in the Braves organization—was ready to take over. Given Renteria’s unreliability and Escobar’s pending promotion, it seems a little much to give up Jurrjens and Hernandez.
If I were a Braves fan, I would be elated with this deal. Not only does Escobar get to move into the shortstop position on an everyday basis, but the Braves also picked up a top-of-the-line pitching prospect and a centerfielder who has been drawing rave reviews ever since he stepped foot in the minor leagues. Players like Renteria are relatively easy to find. This trade isn’t going to cripple the Tigers. The chances are actually very good that this trade will have a net impact of zero or slightly positive. That said, I don’t think there is any doubt that the Braves got the better end of this deal.
After quickly acquiring Sheffield early in the off-season last year, the Tigers were done with major acquisitions despite some speculation to the contrary. The same could be the case this year at least offensively. Although, the recent revelation that Joel Zumaya might miss at least half of the 2008 season makes finding a good-to-great relief-pitcher a high priority. Said injury might increase the odds that the Tigers will make a run at Mariano Rivera. The Tigers have long been rumored to be searching for a left-fielder but the combination of Marcus Thames and Timo Perez apparently seems somewhat manageable to the front-office. Plus, with the payroll at an all-time high (well over $100 million) and the increased need to find bullpen help, I think the offense is pretty much the way it’ll look on opening day.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
