Big Ten Division Projections

Given the financial uncertainty that any non-Notre Dame addition would bring to the conference, there is no guarantee that this query into expansion will have a different result than the last two. While certain outspoken figureheads within the conference—most notably Barry Alvarez and Joe Paterno—have expressed a desire to expand, expansion is, by no means, a sure thing especially considering those likely to be at least somewhat opposed are Michigan, Ohio State, and the Big Ten Commissioner. So, any speculation of a non-Notre Dame addition needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

There has been much consternation on the interwebs about the difficulty of breaking the conference into two divisions should a 12th team be added. Nobody wants to see a repeat of the Big XII mess that has resulted in two disproportionate football divisions. The Big Ten needs to learn from the Big XII’s mistakes and make sure that forming two evenly matched divisions is the #1 priority.

Fortunately, I think that will prove to be a fairly easy endeavor if the Big Ten does it right. In fact, it doesn’t even matter which university the Big Ten adds. The dynamics are already in place to form divisions that make sense by virtually every measure. Before I get into what those divisional breakdowns should be, I want to identify some of the elements that need to be considered.

1). In my opinion, the key to perfecting the divisional breakdowns is to put Michigan and Ohio State into separate divisions. If the Big Ten adds a 12th team and moves to the two divisions/championship game format, then the Michigan-Ohio State game will suffer no matter how the divisions are broken up. If they are in the same division, then they can’t play for the championship. If they are in opposite divisions then that presents the very likely possibility of rematches in back to back weeks or, even worse, moving “The Game” to October. The Big Ten does not want a situation like the Big XII where Texas and Oklahoma are in the same division making it impossible for divisional competitiveness and for the two best teams in the conference to play for the championship. As for wanting to avoid the possibility of two Michigan-Ohio State games in one season, I’m not sure why that should even be a consideration. Any time a conference plays a championship game, the possibility of rematches are unavoidable whether it’s Michigan-Ohio State or Illinois-Northwestern.

2). Two equally competitive divisions should be a primary goal.

3). Traditional rivalries should be protected as much as possible.

4). Although it is certainly possible to simply put together competitive divisions irrespective of geography, the goal for a number of reasons should be to accomplish competitiveness with two distinct geographic regions.

If having geographically meaningful divisions is a priority, then there is really only two ways to do it. The Big Ten can opt for a North/South breakdown like the Big XII, or an East/West breakdown like the SEC. The only way to see if either works geographically and competitively is to write it out. I’ll be using Pittsburgh as the 12th team in the following scenarios. It’s pretty obvious right away that an East/West breakdown won’t work. Ohio St., Michigan, Penn St., Michigan St., Pittsburgh and Indiana would be the “East Division” and Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern would be the “West Division.” That would present an even more egregious talent discrepancy between divisions than what the Big XII faces. So, East/West is out.

The other option is North/South. The six northern most schools—all north of the 41st parallel—are Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern. The six southern most schools—all south of the 41st parallel— would be Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, and Pittsburgh. Since all of the likely 12th-team candidates are south of the 41st parallel, this layout works for any addition whether it be Pittsburgh, Nebraska, Missouri, Rutgers or another school.



A North/South breakdown would be a “slam dunk” competitively. Michigan and Ohio State—historically speaking—are the two best football programs in the conference. Northwestern and Indiana—historically speaking—are the two worst football programs in the conference. Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, and Minnesota are very similar to Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, and Illinois, respectively. By sheer coincidence, I don’t think it’s possible to breakdown the conference more evenly. Geographically and competitively, a North/South divisional breakdown works very well.

Of course, competitiveness and geographic structure aren’t the only considerations. Maintaining existing rivalries is equally important. Fortunately, it looks like a North/South breakdown does a pretty good job of preserving rivalries. There are 11 “permanent” rivalry games acknowledged by the Big Ten. A North/South divisional breakdown would preserve all but four of those games (and since Northwestern-Purdue is a rivalry in name only, it really ends up being all but three).

(games in “green” are inherent to a North/South breakdown; games in “red” are not)

Clearly, Michigan-Ohio State, Michigan State-Penn State, and Illinois-Northwestern are games that absolutely need to be played. Fortunately, the Big Ten would simply need to follow the precedent set by other 12-team conferences which allow for interdivisional games to be protected. For instance, Florida plays LSU every year despite being in different divisions in the SEC. With such a large number of rivalries that would be inherent to a North/South breakdown, it would be very easy for the Big Ten to protect the handful that wouldn’t be.

It seems pretty apparent that having “North” and “South” regions would result in two competitively balanced divisions that make sense geographically while maintaining most existing rivalries. If Pittsburgh is extended an invitation, it would seamlessly transition into a division with longtime rival, Penn State. If it happens to be Notre Dame, then Iowa would move to the “South” division and Notre Dame would play in the “North” where it would maintain existing rivalries with Michigan and Michigan State. Virtually any addition would easily fit into the North/South template.