I’d like to send a big “shout-out” to my dawg, Omar Minaya, for bringing Johan Santana to Queens. I’d also like to send out smaller “shout-outs” to Hank Steinbrenner and Theo Epstein for haggling themselves out of the best pitcher of the 21st century. Boston and New York fans alike seem to be buying the “company line” that Minnesota’s asking-price was simply too much. Somehow, Boston convinced itself that Jacoby Ellsbury (oh ye of 116 regular season at-bats) and Jon Lester (1.566 career WHIP) were too much value to give up for one of the 15 best pitchers in MLB history in his 20s no less. The Yankees—no doubt using the same highly questionable logic—convinced themselves that Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera were too much to part with. I would hate to be a Yankees or Red Sox fan five years from now when Santana is in the midst of throwing down Greg Maddux-caliber seasons like they’re Kwame Kilpatrick-perjuries. Remember, Santana has only been a full-time starter for four seasons. He has a lot of innings left.
The Tigers—facing the same "unproven talent or proven awesomeness" dilemma—gave up Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller—who were both rated among the top 10 prospects in baseball—along with Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz, Mike Rabelo, and Burke Badenhop for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Willis was essentially a “throw in.” The Tigers clearly weren’t offended by having to take Willis but the only way Cabrera was coming to Detroit was by giving up both Maybin and Miller. That package is considerably more potent than anything the Yankees and Red Sox discussed for Santana. Despite parting with two uber-prospects and four of the top six prospects in the organization, Dave Dombrowski jumped all over the deal without the slightest reservation. Tigers fans were universally ecstatic. Adding a player of Cabrera’s caliber for prospects was a no-brainer. As good as Cabrera is—and part of his allure is the fact that he’s only 24—Santana is even better. It is astonishing to me that the Yankees and Red Sox failure to land Santana can be construed as anything other than a disaster. At least Boston can point to its World Championship. New York has no excuse.
Yet, it seems like Boston and New York fans are actually breathing a sigh-of-relief that their coveted prospects are still with the team. I understand that fans obsess over prospects. I’ve fawned over a Juan Encarnacion or two so I’m not going to come down too hard on the folks who love prospects. However, please show some semblance of discretion. A Yankees fan left a comment on a related-article that said, “I really am finding this Santana thing a bit overkill. The Yankees might have 4 Santanas right in front of their noses…” Of course, those four Santanas are Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, and Phillip Hughes. The latter three have 16 career starts between them. Who needs Santana when you can have uncertainty? Apparently, it's the Yankees. Boston fans feel the same way about Jacoby Ellsbury. He has been touted as “the next coming” because of one stellar postseason. He’ll have to be pretty damn good to justify passing on Santana.
The Mets gave up four of their top seven prospects (Guerra, Gomez, Mulvey, and Humber) according to Baseball America. I haven’t seen or a heard a single mention by anyone that the Mets gave up too much. The Mets instantly became a World Series contender and possible favorite by adding Santana to its rotation. One would think that with the Tigers putting together an all-world lineup capable of rockin’ out 1,000 runs that an AL team would feel the need to get involved. To be fair to Boston, it actually has a pitching staff that can be counted on. Still, it had the means to add Santana and didn't. While Boston and New York are patting themselves on the back because the other didn’t get Santana, the Tigers are the big winner in all of this. Here are just a few of the gazillion reasons why the Tigers scored big-time with this trade…
* The two biggest threats to the Tigers in the AL are New York and Boston. Santana to either of those teams would’ve changed the landscape for 2008 dramatically. Instead, the Red Sox and Yankees come back with essentially the same teams—unless you want to make a big deal about Pettitte in NY—while the Tigers added Cabrera, Willis, and Renteria.
*Santana is no longer in the division which means the Tigers won’t see him six times per year like they did last season.
*The Tigers don’t have to contend with the Johan Santana/Francisco Liriano combo that propelled the Twins through a 31-7 stretch in 2006 that culminated in winning the division after trailing by 12.5 games. The Twins are annoying with Santana alone. They are downright scary with Santana and Liriano.
*Since the Yankees and Red Sox passed on him, the Tigers won’t have to face Santana at any point in the AL playoffs where a pitcher of his caliber does the most damage.
*The Yankees play six games against the Mets which could very well mean they’ll have to face Santana twice. The Tigers won’t face him at all. Last season, the Tigers faced Santana six times and the Yankees only had to seem him once. That should be worth a few games in the standings for the Tigers.
All of these little things add up to one huge boost for Detroit’s chances of reaching and ultimately winning the World Series.
I thought for sure that the Yankees or Red Sox would reach into their unlimited pocketbooks—with Detroit’s $130 payroll, am I still allowed to say things like this?—and gleefully plug Santana right into the top of the rotation. I’m blown away that this didn’t happen. Back in early December when the Santana-negotiations heated up—even after the Tigers had added Cabrera—I felt that if either the Yankees or the Red Sox added Santana, they would be the favorite to come out of the AL slightly ahead of Detroit. If neither ended up with him, Detroit’s addition of Cabrera and Willis would put the Tigers on top. I haven’t changed my mind. This trade was huge for the Tigers. If it can be assumed that Santana was definitely going to be traded and it can be assumed that the Red Sox and Yankees were the two primary contenders for his services, then this trade may end up being nearly as important as the Miguel Cabrera-trade. Avoiding the wrath of Santana/Liriano while also avoiding having to face Santana against the Red Sox or Yankees in the post-season is huge.
I could understand New York’s decision to pass on Santana if it had focused its attention on adding another top-flight starter. Thankfully, that doesn’t seem to be in the works either. The Yankees passed on Dan Haren who is now in Arizona. They also appear to be passing on Erik Bedard who is likely headed to Seattle. Midway through the 2007-season when the Tigers were an offensive juggernaut, Dave Dombrowski said he would not be adding offense at the trade-deadline. That statement broke my heart considering the Tigers were getting subpar offensive production from third base, first base, and left-field all of which are positions that are generally counted on for offensive production. Despite Dombrowksi's optimism, the Tigers needed to look at adding offense. Instead, they decided to pass. Gary Sheffield got hurt just a short time later and the offense fell apart. My point is that Boston is in love with its rotation in the same way Dombrowski was in love with his lineup. Dombrowski no doubt learned a lesson and brought in "Miggy" in the off-season. Thankfully, Boston has chosen to learn its lesson before making a similar addition.
The 2007-season showed just how difficult it is to make the playoffs even if you bring back a team that just went to the World Series the year before in tact. The Tigers seemed to be poised for another run at the World Series with an even more talented team coming back last season. Injuries and inconsistencies proved to be too much and the Tigers came up just a few games short. Boston and New York’s indifference this off-season may go overlooked now but it should pay huge dividends for the Tigers in 2008.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Monday, January 28, 2008
NCAA Tournament projections goes to 5 OTs
The ACC needs some bad teams
The ACC is the #1 conference in America and—according to the RPI—it’s not close. The worst team in the ACC is Virginia with an RPI of 108 (Virginia's RPI was 86 heading into Sunday). No other conference can claim a “worst team” in the RPI 150. While there is no question that the ACC is the deepest conference in America, there is also no question that the ACC is in danger of only placing three teams in the NCAA Tournament. There is a lot of time before Selection Sunday so things can obviously change. Miami’s win over Clemson on Sunday was huge for the conference in terms of potential bids. However, as impressive as it is that the ACC’s worst team has an RPI of 108, the fact that it only has four teams in the RPI 45 is equally unimpressive. There is little difference between Virginia, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, Maryland, and Georgia Tech. None are likely to make the tournament. In fact, it’s getting to the point where there are only five possibilities for bids. North Carolina and Duke are in. Clemson is in barring a disaster. NC State and Miami (FL) control their own destiny but I would be surprised if both teams could weather the storm of the ACC schedule. So, if you’re an ACC fan, take pride in the fact that your team plays in the #1 conference--statistically speaking--in America because you probably aren’t going to be taking pride in too much else come Selection Sunday.
The Big East is a bubble beast
Various TV personalities love to argue that the Big East is the best conference in America. The problem is that nobody disagrees. The ACC has the best computer average but the Big East clearly has the best colleciton of teams. The Big East has 11 teams in the RPI 65. The ACC only has 12 teams in its conference. So, I’m not sure who they’re arguing with. Since the Big East has 16 teams, it would be a shock if it weren’t the best conference. So, maybe we can put an end to the, “Some people may disagree but the Big East is the best conference in America” arguments. Nobody disagrees.
The Big East is a solid conference magnified by having an additional four teams. With that magnification come a larger group of mid-tier teams. That’s why the conference has four teams squarely on “the bubble” and will probably have at least that many come March. It has seven teams that should safely find at-large bids. After those, however, the conference could be looking at anywhere from zero to four additional bids. Providence, Syracuse, Seton Hall, and Villanova will all struggle to stay above .500 in the conference (Pomeroy doesn’t predict any of the four to finish better than 8-10 in conference). I could see West Virginia potentially joining that group as well. I could certainly foresee a situation in March where the entire “bubble” is filled with Big East teams. Contrast that to a conference like the Big Ten which will likely have zero teams on the bubble.
The big winner in Big East's monstrosity is, of course, Memphis. Why join a 17-team mega conference when you can destroy Conference-USA? The big loser in all of this is Cincinnati. Has any athletic administration in the history of sports made a worse 1-2 combo of decisions than when Cincy’s ad-wizards canned Bob Huggins and chose to join the Big East?
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Niagara
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Brown
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large NC State
36 At-Large Miami (FL)
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large St. Joe's
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large Kent St.
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Connecticut, Purdue, St. Joe's, BYU, Kent St., Miami (FL)
Out: Villanova, Providence, Illinois St., Cleveland St., Oregon, Arizona St.
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). St. Joseph’s
Resume
St. Joe’s has unexpectedly jumped onto the A-10 train headed for the NCAA Tournament. All along, it looked like the A-10 was going to shock the college basketball world with four bids. Now, it looks like it might shock the college basketball world with five bids. St. Joe’s will need at least 11 conference wins to garner a bid, IMO. The remaining schedule is manageable with a number of games against the bottom of the A-10. Pomeroy predicts an 11-5 conference record so Phil Martelli might be headed to another tourney.
2). BYU
Resume
The Cougars should have no problem getting to 12-4 in conference. That would come with a pretty good RPI which would likely mean an at-large bid.
3). Kent St.
Resume
Kent St. has wins over Illinois St., George Mason, and Cleveland St. The Golden Flashes could be in competition for an at-large bid with all three of those teams.
4). Texas A&M
Resume
The Aggies only have one win over a team in the RPI 50. They’ll get an opportunity to change that this week with home games against Texas and Oklahoma. Win one and you’ll see A&M in my projections next week. Lose both, and they’ll be on the outside looking in.
5). NC State
Resume
We should know by Valentine’s Day if NC State is tourney bound. It’ll have to go 3-2 to between now and then or things could get ugly. Pomeroy predicts a 3-8 finish for NC State. I’m not sure it’ll be that bad but it could be close. If the Wolfpack don’t end up getting a bid, I’d love to see Sydney Lowe’s suit-coat get an “honorary” bid.
First five “out” (no particular order)
1). Villanova
Resume
Villanova has issues. Its next five games are against teams in the RPI 50. Five of its next six games after that are against teams in the RPI 35. I didn’t even know a schedule like that was possible. Still, a 5-5 record over that span would leave ‘Nova in good shape for a bid.
2). Seton Hall
Resume
The Pirates (a tip of the cap to Captain Feathersword) started off 0-3 in the Big East. Four consecutive wins later and they’re fighting for a tourney bid. Seton Hall has one of the easiest schedules in the conference from here on out so it might be the best bet of the four bubble teams so Andrew Gaze and Luther Wright eligibility inquiries shouldn't be necessary.
3). Providence
Resume
I don’t have much confidence in Providence’s tourney chances despite non-conference wins over Arkansas, BC, Temple, and Florida St. It would help if even one of those teams was tourney bound.
4). Syracuse
Resume
Syracuse is 1-5 against the RPI 50. The Big East schedule is going to eat the “Cuse” alive. Six of its remaining ten games are on the road and six of its remaining ten games are against teams in the RPI 50. A miss this season would make it two-straight years without a NCAA Tournament bid for James Arthur Boeheim. It would be three had Syracuse not shockingly won the Big East tournament two years ago.
5). Arkansas
Resume
Losing back to back games to S. Carolina and Georgia is not a recipe for making the tournament. In the end, those two games will likely be the reason the Razorbacks are playing in the NIT. Arkansas is about to enter a five-game stretch against teams that are 20-5 in the SEC. If Arkansas has any prayer of making the tourney, it’ll need to go 3-2 in those games, or get bailed out by the Selection Committee for the second year in a row by beating a bunch of “has beens” in the SEC tourney.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Memphis
Kansas
North Carolina
Duke
#2 Seeds
Michigan St.
Tennessee
UCLA
Georgetown
Big Games this Week
Monday
Louisville @ Connecticut
Tuesday
VCU @ George Mason
Wednesday
Kansas @ Kansas St.
Texas @ Texas A&M
Villanova @ Pittsburgh
Memphis @ Houston
Creighton @ Drake
Mississippi St. @ Arkansas
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi
Thursday
NC State @ Duke
Indiana @ Wisconsin
Providence @ Notre Dame
Arizona @ USC
Arizona St. @ UCLA
Friday
None
Saturday
Dayton @ Rhode Island
Miami (FL) @ Duke
Baylor @ Texas
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M
Pittsburgh @ Connecticut
Seton Hall@ Georgetown
Syracuse @ Villanova
West Virginia @ Providence
Winthrop @ NC Asheville
Arizona @ UCLA
Arizona St. @ USC
Stanford @ Washington St.
Florida @ Arkansas
Tennessee @ Mississippi St.
Utah St. @ Nevada
Sunday
New England vs. NY Giants
The ACC is the #1 conference in America and—according to the RPI—it’s not close. The worst team in the ACC is Virginia with an RPI of 108 (Virginia's RPI was 86 heading into Sunday). No other conference can claim a “worst team” in the RPI 150. While there is no question that the ACC is the deepest conference in America, there is also no question that the ACC is in danger of only placing three teams in the NCAA Tournament. There is a lot of time before Selection Sunday so things can obviously change. Miami’s win over Clemson on Sunday was huge for the conference in terms of potential bids. However, as impressive as it is that the ACC’s worst team has an RPI of 108, the fact that it only has four teams in the RPI 45 is equally unimpressive. There is little difference between Virginia, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest, Maryland, and Georgia Tech. None are likely to make the tournament. In fact, it’s getting to the point where there are only five possibilities for bids. North Carolina and Duke are in. Clemson is in barring a disaster. NC State and Miami (FL) control their own destiny but I would be surprised if both teams could weather the storm of the ACC schedule. So, if you’re an ACC fan, take pride in the fact that your team plays in the #1 conference--statistically speaking--in America because you probably aren’t going to be taking pride in too much else come Selection Sunday.
The Big East is a bubble beast
Various TV personalities love to argue that the Big East is the best conference in America. The problem is that nobody disagrees. The ACC has the best computer average but the Big East clearly has the best colleciton of teams. The Big East has 11 teams in the RPI 65. The ACC only has 12 teams in its conference. So, I’m not sure who they’re arguing with. Since the Big East has 16 teams, it would be a shock if it weren’t the best conference. So, maybe we can put an end to the, “Some people may disagree but the Big East is the best conference in America” arguments. Nobody disagrees.
The Big East is a solid conference magnified by having an additional four teams. With that magnification come a larger group of mid-tier teams. That’s why the conference has four teams squarely on “the bubble” and will probably have at least that many come March. It has seven teams that should safely find at-large bids. After those, however, the conference could be looking at anywhere from zero to four additional bids. Providence, Syracuse, Seton Hall, and Villanova will all struggle to stay above .500 in the conference (Pomeroy doesn’t predict any of the four to finish better than 8-10 in conference). I could see West Virginia potentially joining that group as well. I could certainly foresee a situation in March where the entire “bubble” is filled with Big East teams. Contrast that to a conference like the Big Ten which will likely have zero teams on the bubble.
The big winner in Big East's monstrosity is, of course, Memphis. Why join a 17-team mega conference when you can destroy Conference-USA? The big loser in all of this is Cincinnati. Has any athletic administration in the history of sports made a worse 1-2 combo of decisions than when Cincy’s ad-wizards canned Bob Huggins and chose to join the Big East?
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Niagara
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Brown
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large NC State
36 At-Large Miami (FL)
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large St. Joe's
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large Kent St.
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Connecticut, Purdue, St. Joe's, BYU, Kent St., Miami (FL)
Out: Villanova, Providence, Illinois St., Cleveland St., Oregon, Arizona St.
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). St. Joseph’s
Resume
St. Joe’s has unexpectedly jumped onto the A-10 train headed for the NCAA Tournament. All along, it looked like the A-10 was going to shock the college basketball world with four bids. Now, it looks like it might shock the college basketball world with five bids. St. Joe’s will need at least 11 conference wins to garner a bid, IMO. The remaining schedule is manageable with a number of games against the bottom of the A-10. Pomeroy predicts an 11-5 conference record so Phil Martelli might be headed to another tourney.
2). BYU
Resume
The Cougars should have no problem getting to 12-4 in conference. That would come with a pretty good RPI which would likely mean an at-large bid.
3). Kent St.
Resume
Kent St. has wins over Illinois St., George Mason, and Cleveland St. The Golden Flashes could be in competition for an at-large bid with all three of those teams.
4). Texas A&M
Resume
The Aggies only have one win over a team in the RPI 50. They’ll get an opportunity to change that this week with home games against Texas and Oklahoma. Win one and you’ll see A&M in my projections next week. Lose both, and they’ll be on the outside looking in.
5). NC State
Resume
We should know by Valentine’s Day if NC State is tourney bound. It’ll have to go 3-2 to between now and then or things could get ugly. Pomeroy predicts a 3-8 finish for NC State. I’m not sure it’ll be that bad but it could be close. If the Wolfpack don’t end up getting a bid, I’d love to see Sydney Lowe’s suit-coat get an “honorary” bid.
First five “out” (no particular order)
1). Villanova
Resume
Villanova has issues. Its next five games are against teams in the RPI 50. Five of its next six games after that are against teams in the RPI 35. I didn’t even know a schedule like that was possible. Still, a 5-5 record over that span would leave ‘Nova in good shape for a bid.
2). Seton Hall
Resume
The Pirates (a tip of the cap to Captain Feathersword) started off 0-3 in the Big East. Four consecutive wins later and they’re fighting for a tourney bid. Seton Hall has one of the easiest schedules in the conference from here on out so it might be the best bet of the four bubble teams so Andrew Gaze and Luther Wright eligibility inquiries shouldn't be necessary.
3). Providence
Resume
I don’t have much confidence in Providence’s tourney chances despite non-conference wins over Arkansas, BC, Temple, and Florida St. It would help if even one of those teams was tourney bound.
4). Syracuse
Resume
Syracuse is 1-5 against the RPI 50. The Big East schedule is going to eat the “Cuse” alive. Six of its remaining ten games are on the road and six of its remaining ten games are against teams in the RPI 50. A miss this season would make it two-straight years without a NCAA Tournament bid for James Arthur Boeheim. It would be three had Syracuse not shockingly won the Big East tournament two years ago.
5). Arkansas
Resume
Losing back to back games to S. Carolina and Georgia is not a recipe for making the tournament. In the end, those two games will likely be the reason the Razorbacks are playing in the NIT. Arkansas is about to enter a five-game stretch against teams that are 20-5 in the SEC. If Arkansas has any prayer of making the tourney, it’ll need to go 3-2 in those games, or get bailed out by the Selection Committee for the second year in a row by beating a bunch of “has beens” in the SEC tourney.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Memphis
Kansas
North Carolina
Duke
#2 Seeds
Michigan St.
Tennessee
UCLA
Georgetown
Big Games this Week
Monday
Louisville @ Connecticut
Tuesday
VCU @ George Mason
Wednesday
Kansas @ Kansas St.
Texas @ Texas A&M
Villanova @ Pittsburgh
Memphis @ Houston
Creighton @ Drake
Mississippi St. @ Arkansas
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi
Thursday
NC State @ Duke
Indiana @ Wisconsin
Providence @ Notre Dame
Arizona @ USC
Arizona St. @ UCLA
Friday
None
Saturday
Dayton @ Rhode Island
Miami (FL) @ Duke
Baylor @ Texas
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M
Pittsburgh @ Connecticut
Seton Hall@ Georgetown
Syracuse @ Villanova
West Virginia @ Providence
Winthrop @ NC Asheville
Arizona @ UCLA
Arizona St. @ USC
Stanford @ Washington St.
Florida @ Arkansas
Tennessee @ Mississippi St.
Utah St. @ Nevada
Sunday
New England vs. NY Giants
Thursday, January 24, 2008
A Pryor-ity but not a necessity
The most famous uncommitted recruit in the history of Michigan football is very likely Terrelle Pryor. He is a big, tall, dual-threat QB who likely represents the future of NFL signal-callers. He is the #1-rated recruit at any position according to Rivals which, of course, makes him important. I would continue to address those who haven’t heard of him but I’m not sure any such person exists. So I’ll skip over the “Pryor is the next Vince Young” hyperbole and get to the point. By most accounts, Pryor’s destination of choice will either be Ann Arbor or Columbus making this another Michigan/Ohio St. recruiting showdown. Pryor to Michigan could quickly turn the momentum in the rivalry. Pryor to Ohio St. could be four more years of Buckeye-domination. Clearly, it behooves Michigan to get Pryor to Ann Arbor. From a Michigan-perspective, though, it’s vastly more important for Ohio St. to not get him than it is for Michigan to get him.
Short-term success is likely with or without Pryor
There is no question that the Michigan football program would explode with the combined momentum of Rich Rodriguez’s spread offense and a commitment from a recruit as sought-after as Pryor. However, too many people are tying Michigan’s fate to Pryor’s arrival. Michigan doesn’t need Pryor. He would be a godsend for a coaching staff trying to delicately transition a pro-style football roster into a full-on spread offense. But, not getting Pryor won’t mean years of mediocrity and—contrary to what most seem to believe—likely won’t mean one year of mediocrity. The cavalcade of “doomsday”-predictors for 2008 seem to have forgotten that Michigan has more talent than every team on its schedule sans Ohio St. The defense returns seven starters including All-Big Ten candidates Morgan Trent, Donovan Warren, Terrance Taylor, Brandon Graham, and Tim Jamison. Even if the offense is putrid next season—which is doubtful considering putrid spread offenses are as common as a Wade Phillips playoff-win—Michigan’s defense will be good enough to keep it in every game.
The year-one offense is clearly the big worry among Michigan fans and a favorite point of emphasis for Michigan-haters. However, I don’t think that the question is whether the offense will be bad enough to keep Michigan from a bowl game as many have speculated. I think the question is whether the offense can be good enough for Michigan to win 10+ games. If the offense has any continuity whatsoever, Michigan should be quite good next season. If the offense is in a state of flux for the entire season, the overall talent of the roster should still be good enough to yield Michigan’s status quo of at least eight wins.
Worst Case for 2008
Worst case scenario entering the 2008-season is that Pryor chooses OSU and Rodriguez can’t land a mid-level recruit capable of stepping in as a freshman. That would leave Steven Threet—a top 10 QB recruit coming out of High School—to run the offense. On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be much comfort in that. However, remember the spread Michigan unveiled in the Capital One Bowl? That’s the same spread Rodriguez would’ve used if Ryan Mallett stuck around. It’s not like Rodriguez is going to try to install a run-based spread offense with Threet. He’s not an idiot. He would put Threet in the shotgun and spread the field like Purdue or Texas Tech. Purdue and Texas Tech have formidable offenses whether they have a fifth-year senior or a freshman at QB. Michigan—even in a year in which it loses Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Jake Long, Mario Manningham, and Adrian Arrington—will have more talent on its roster than Purdue or Texas Tech has ever had. Greg Mathews and Carson Butler are very good receiving threats. Among the bevy of capable underclassmen receivers (Toney Clemons, Junior Hemingway, Darryl Stonum, LaTerryal Savoy and Martell Webb) will almost undoubtedly be a break-out performer.
Michigan will have a number of options at running back including Kevin Grady, Carlos Brown, Brandon Minor, Avery Horn, and Sam McGuffie. That’s eight four-star recruits and a five-star recruit at the skill-positions alone that Rodriguez will have to work with. Rodriguez could only dream of that level of talent when he was forced to work with 2 and 3-star recruits exclusively at WVU. In the four recruiting classes from 2003-2006, WVU signed zero four-star recruits who actually contributed meaningful minutes on the field (the three he did sign got booted from the team). The players that Rodriguez inherited at Michigan are extremely talented. Most would be feature players at Texas Tech, Purdue or West Virginia. There is no question in my mind that you can plug Threet into an offense with Michigan’s current crop of running backs and wide receivers and come up with a product that isn’t awful.
A lot will be made of Michigan’s problems on the OL. Fortunately, the spread can mask weaknesses on the OL. The Michigan OL was marginal at best in 2007. That “marginal” line didn’t just magically mold into a fantastic line for the Capital One Bowl. The spread gave Henne more time to throw and forced Florida to dedicate more players to defending the pass. Thus, the OL becomes less of an issue. Even still, Rodriguez will have some very talented players at his disposal. Justin Boren, Steve Schilling, and Dann O’Neil were all Rivals100 recruits. I don’t want to make recruiting seem like the end all. I just want people to realize that year-one isn’t all “doom and gloom” like many have speculated. The defense will be very good and the offense will have a number of talented players to work with.
The schedule
This is going to sound totally revolutionary to some people but winning eight or nine games at Michigan is not a difficult feat. In fact, winning eight games per year is about the worst possible outcome in any given year considering roster talent and relative ease of Michigan’s typical schedule. In most seasons, Michigan plays about five or six “loseable” games. It is the results of those games which determines how successful the season is going to be. Nothing has changed in that regard for the 2008 schedule. Michigan “should” beat Utah, Miami (OH), Toledo, Minnesota, and Northwestern. That’s five wins right there. I have no problem penciling in Ohio St. as a likely loss. That leaves Notre Dame, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn St., Michigan St., and Purdue. A loss at Notre Dame is possible but not probable. A loss at home to Michigan St. is possible but not probable. And, a loss at Purdue is possible but not probable. I would be surprised if Michigan fared worse than 2-1 in those games. Much has been made of Michigan’s personnel-losses but Michigan St., Purdue, and Notre Dame lose a considerable amount as well. I don’t see how any of those three teams are better off than Michigan for 2008.
It will undoubtedly become chic to predict losses at home to Wisconsin and Illinois and at Penn St. All three could happen but I would be surprised if all three did happen. Wisconsin and Illinois also lose a number of important players. Michigan should be good enough to take one of those games at a minimum. That adds up to eight wins. I would be very surprised if Michigan won fewer than eight games even with a transition-year.
Long Term
There is no question in my mind that Michigan would do just fine in the short term without Pryor. There is even less of a question that Michigan will do just fine in the long term without Pryor. Rodriguez doesn’t need Terrelle Pryor to have an unstoppable offense. He just needs Pat White. White was merely a three-star, wide receiver recruit in high school. He didn’t succeed at WVU because he was a great-passer. He had the athletic-ability to run the spread and was smart enough to make the right reads. One can daydream about the explosiveness of a Pryor-led Michigan offense. But, there is no guessing necessary to understand the explosiveness of Rodriguez’s offense even when it’s led by an unheralded, three-star, wide receiver who can make the right read. Much has been made of the Big East’s reputation for weak defenses but surely Georgia, Georgia Tech, and Oklahoma count as formidable defensive obstacles. With White at the helm, WVU put up 38, 38, and 48 points against the #4, #20, and #9 defenses in its last three bowl games. Rodriguez has success with a system—not with a player. The skills required to run Rodriguez’s offense are so specific that a mid-tier recruit like White can and will flourish at the helm. There are a gazillion more Pat Whites out there than Terrelle Pryors. That certainly bodes well for Michigan but Rodriguez will find out soon enough that he won’t have to “take chances” on guys like White at Michigan. As Rodriguez has stated numerous times, you're dealing with a whole different caliber of player when you’ve got the block “M” on your hat. If it isn't Pryor this year, it'll be his equivalent next year.
So, if—or more likely when—Pryor chooses OSU on signing day, don’t go removing “Michigan” from the top of the “most consecutive bowl appearances” list. Michigan is—and always has been—more than one player.
Short-term success is likely with or without Pryor
There is no question that the Michigan football program would explode with the combined momentum of Rich Rodriguez’s spread offense and a commitment from a recruit as sought-after as Pryor. However, too many people are tying Michigan’s fate to Pryor’s arrival. Michigan doesn’t need Pryor. He would be a godsend for a coaching staff trying to delicately transition a pro-style football roster into a full-on spread offense. But, not getting Pryor won’t mean years of mediocrity and—contrary to what most seem to believe—likely won’t mean one year of mediocrity. The cavalcade of “doomsday”-predictors for 2008 seem to have forgotten that Michigan has more talent than every team on its schedule sans Ohio St. The defense returns seven starters including All-Big Ten candidates Morgan Trent, Donovan Warren, Terrance Taylor, Brandon Graham, and Tim Jamison. Even if the offense is putrid next season—which is doubtful considering putrid spread offenses are as common as a Wade Phillips playoff-win—Michigan’s defense will be good enough to keep it in every game.
The year-one offense is clearly the big worry among Michigan fans and a favorite point of emphasis for Michigan-haters. However, I don’t think that the question is whether the offense will be bad enough to keep Michigan from a bowl game as many have speculated. I think the question is whether the offense can be good enough for Michigan to win 10+ games. If the offense has any continuity whatsoever, Michigan should be quite good next season. If the offense is in a state of flux for the entire season, the overall talent of the roster should still be good enough to yield Michigan’s status quo of at least eight wins.
Worst Case for 2008
Worst case scenario entering the 2008-season is that Pryor chooses OSU and Rodriguez can’t land a mid-level recruit capable of stepping in as a freshman. That would leave Steven Threet—a top 10 QB recruit coming out of High School—to run the offense. On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be much comfort in that. However, remember the spread Michigan unveiled in the Capital One Bowl? That’s the same spread Rodriguez would’ve used if Ryan Mallett stuck around. It’s not like Rodriguez is going to try to install a run-based spread offense with Threet. He’s not an idiot. He would put Threet in the shotgun and spread the field like Purdue or Texas Tech. Purdue and Texas Tech have formidable offenses whether they have a fifth-year senior or a freshman at QB. Michigan—even in a year in which it loses Chad Henne, Mike Hart, Jake Long, Mario Manningham, and Adrian Arrington—will have more talent on its roster than Purdue or Texas Tech has ever had. Greg Mathews and Carson Butler are very good receiving threats. Among the bevy of capable underclassmen receivers (Toney Clemons, Junior Hemingway, Darryl Stonum, LaTerryal Savoy and Martell Webb) will almost undoubtedly be a break-out performer.
Michigan will have a number of options at running back including Kevin Grady, Carlos Brown, Brandon Minor, Avery Horn, and Sam McGuffie. That’s eight four-star recruits and a five-star recruit at the skill-positions alone that Rodriguez will have to work with. Rodriguez could only dream of that level of talent when he was forced to work with 2 and 3-star recruits exclusively at WVU. In the four recruiting classes from 2003-2006, WVU signed zero four-star recruits who actually contributed meaningful minutes on the field (the three he did sign got booted from the team). The players that Rodriguez inherited at Michigan are extremely talented. Most would be feature players at Texas Tech, Purdue or West Virginia. There is no question in my mind that you can plug Threet into an offense with Michigan’s current crop of running backs and wide receivers and come up with a product that isn’t awful.
A lot will be made of Michigan’s problems on the OL. Fortunately, the spread can mask weaknesses on the OL. The Michigan OL was marginal at best in 2007. That “marginal” line didn’t just magically mold into a fantastic line for the Capital One Bowl. The spread gave Henne more time to throw and forced Florida to dedicate more players to defending the pass. Thus, the OL becomes less of an issue. Even still, Rodriguez will have some very talented players at his disposal. Justin Boren, Steve Schilling, and Dann O’Neil were all Rivals100 recruits. I don’t want to make recruiting seem like the end all. I just want people to realize that year-one isn’t all “doom and gloom” like many have speculated. The defense will be very good and the offense will have a number of talented players to work with.
The schedule
This is going to sound totally revolutionary to some people but winning eight or nine games at Michigan is not a difficult feat. In fact, winning eight games per year is about the worst possible outcome in any given year considering roster talent and relative ease of Michigan’s typical schedule. In most seasons, Michigan plays about five or six “loseable” games. It is the results of those games which determines how successful the season is going to be. Nothing has changed in that regard for the 2008 schedule. Michigan “should” beat Utah, Miami (OH), Toledo, Minnesota, and Northwestern. That’s five wins right there. I have no problem penciling in Ohio St. as a likely loss. That leaves Notre Dame, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn St., Michigan St., and Purdue. A loss at Notre Dame is possible but not probable. A loss at home to Michigan St. is possible but not probable. And, a loss at Purdue is possible but not probable. I would be surprised if Michigan fared worse than 2-1 in those games. Much has been made of Michigan’s personnel-losses but Michigan St., Purdue, and Notre Dame lose a considerable amount as well. I don’t see how any of those three teams are better off than Michigan for 2008.
It will undoubtedly become chic to predict losses at home to Wisconsin and Illinois and at Penn St. All three could happen but I would be surprised if all three did happen. Wisconsin and Illinois also lose a number of important players. Michigan should be good enough to take one of those games at a minimum. That adds up to eight wins. I would be very surprised if Michigan won fewer than eight games even with a transition-year.
Long Term
There is no question in my mind that Michigan would do just fine in the short term without Pryor. There is even less of a question that Michigan will do just fine in the long term without Pryor. Rodriguez doesn’t need Terrelle Pryor to have an unstoppable offense. He just needs Pat White. White was merely a three-star, wide receiver recruit in high school. He didn’t succeed at WVU because he was a great-passer. He had the athletic-ability to run the spread and was smart enough to make the right reads. One can daydream about the explosiveness of a Pryor-led Michigan offense. But, there is no guessing necessary to understand the explosiveness of Rodriguez’s offense even when it’s led by an unheralded, three-star, wide receiver who can make the right read. Much has been made of the Big East’s reputation for weak defenses but surely Georgia, Georgia Tech, and Oklahoma count as formidable defensive obstacles. With White at the helm, WVU put up 38, 38, and 48 points against the #4, #20, and #9 defenses in its last three bowl games. Rodriguez has success with a system—not with a player. The skills required to run Rodriguez’s offense are so specific that a mid-tier recruit like White can and will flourish at the helm. There are a gazillion more Pat Whites out there than Terrelle Pryors. That certainly bodes well for Michigan but Rodriguez will find out soon enough that he won’t have to “take chances” on guys like White at Michigan. As Rodriguez has stated numerous times, you're dealing with a whole different caliber of player when you’ve got the block “M” on your hat. If it isn't Pryor this year, it'll be his equivalent next year.
So, if—or more likely when—Pryor chooses OSU on signing day, don’t go removing “Michigan” from the top of the “most consecutive bowl appearances” list. Michigan is—and always has been—more than one player.
Monday, January 21, 2008
NCAA Tournament projections look like Tom Coughlin's face
I may be chasing the "White Rabbit" but I wont rest—except when I need to—until I project all 65 teams correctly. Last year, I missed a perfect projection by one spot. Syracuse—my only miss—was no lock but it was the best option as the 65th team. The team that the Selection Committee put in over Syracuse—Arkansas—had no business making the tournament. The Selection Committee has made some terrible decisions over the last two years. So, trying to emulate terrible decision-makers might seem a bit insane. And, I admit that it probably is. Nonetheless, come March, I'll throw out a 65-team projection with hopes that I'll get them all correct. I am not alone in my pursuit of perfection, though. Famed bracketologist, Joe Lunardi, has been projecting the 65-team field since 1998 and has yet to be perfect.
This first week of projections won’t feature the normal extracurriculars (last five out, last five in etc). I moved back the first week of projections as it is because there is just too much clutter after the top 10-15 teams. It was difficult to even find 65 teams that were worthy of being classified as “in the field.” But, that’s one of the reasons why I enjoy the projections so much. With each passing week, the projections mold into a more accurate depiction of the field. The parity in the major conferences thus far (the ACC and Big XII only have two teams in the RPI 25, the Big Ten, SEC, and Big East only have three) and the rise of the mid-majors (eight of the RPI 25 are not from one of the six major conferences) have created too much ambiguity to take these projections seriously. But, we have to start somewhere. Things should look a whole lot better two weeks from now.
Don’t Mess with the A-10
After catapulting itself into semi-major status over the last couple years, the Missouri Valley Conference will struggle to get two bids this year and even if it does continue its streak of at least two bids for the 10th straight year, it will do so in less impressive fashion. That would normally mean more bids up-for-grabs for the major conferences but "not so fast, my friend". Contrary to what we have been led to believe over the last decade, the A-10 still exists and it’s pissed. The A-10s list of non-conference victims is shocking. The conference has 25 wins over the RPI 100 (the Big Ten has 18) despite having the most difficult non-conference schedule of any of the top 10 conferences. Despite its grueling SOS, it has managed a non-conference record of 116-66 (.637 %) which is considerably better than its 98-83 (.515 %) record a year ago. The A-10 has six teams in the RPI 60 including four in the RPI 20. The result will likely be at least four A-10 teams receiving tournament-bids which is the most it has had in 10 years. Even more surprising is that George Washington, Temple, and St. Joe’s aren’t fueling the charge. Rhode Island (hasn’t made the tourney since ’99) and UMASS (hasn’t made the tourney since ’98) along with Xavier and Dayton have done the most damage thus far. Tyson Wheeler and Lari Ketner must be proud. I can’t say I saw this coming but I’m glad it did. College basketball is better off when the A-10 isn’t terrible. On a side note, the A-10 has had 20 basketball members since its inception in 1975. One million pretend dollars to anyone who can name every existing team in the A-10 and pretend ownership of the world to anyone who can name all 20 schools that have participated in the A-10. Answer.
Teen Wolf
The much ballyhooed freshman class of 2007 has yielded a wealth of stars (Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Kevin Love, and Michael Beasley just to name a few) but I haven’t seen a better freshman than Eric Gordon. He reminds me of Teen Wolf. Remember the scene when Scott Howard turns into “The Wolf” and throws down dunk after thunderous dunk in a video montage set to "Way to Go" by Mark Vieha? That’s what Gordon reminds me of. He dunks like Charles Barkley. He is “lights-out” from 3-point range (42%). He can get to the rim on anyone at anytime. He could be a star in the NBA right now. The closest thing to Teen Wolf in the NBA is Baron Davis (the beard is just "icing on the cake") and I think Davis is Gordon’s NBA-equivalent.
The worst comparison I have ever heard in the history of comparisons was when the announcers of the Michigan-Indiana game two weeks ago (don’t quote me on this but I believe Musberger was involved with said comparison) compared him to Jason Kidd. There has never been a player in the history of great point-guards who compares less favorably to Eric Gordon than Jason Kidd. Gordon is a prolific 3-point shooter with freaky athletic ability who shoots first and dunks second. Kidd is a questionable shooter who passes first and second and rarely—if ever—dunks and certainly never dunks in traffic. So, please keep Gordon-comparisons to Teen Wolf, Baron Davis or anyone not named Jason Kidd.
As everyone in the free-world knows, Gordon originally committed to Illinois before Kelvin Sampson politely redirected him to Indiana. Generally, one recruit doesn’t make a team or a season. In this case, that couldn’t be more wrong. If Gordon kept his commitment to Illinois, the Illini would be better than Indiana and would easily be ranked in the top 10. Instead, Gordon went to Indiana and now the Hoosiers are clearly better than Illinois and ranked in the top 10. However, Illinois shouldn’t be too pissed. Gordon will likely take his monster-dunks to the NBA next season. Missing out on four years of Gordon would’ve been unbearable. One season isn’t nearly as bad. Plus, I’m not sure Alex Legion transfers to Illinois if Gordon were around. It’s possible those four years of Legion end up being better than one year of Gordon. It's also possible that Legion transfers to four more schools.
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Niagara
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Brown
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large NC State
36 At-Large Notre Dame
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Villanova
41 At-Large Providence
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Arizona St.
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Stanford
48 At-Large Oregon
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Oklahoma
53 At-Large Baylor
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Ohio St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Mississippi St.
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large Cleveland St.
65 At-Large Illinois St.
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Big Games this Week
Monday
Syracuse @ Georgetown
Tuesday
Drake @ Creighton
Wednesday
Massachusetts @ St. Joe’s
Baylor @ Texas A&M
Akron @ Kent St.
San Diego St. @ BYU
Thursday
Dayton @ Xavier
UCLA @ Oregon
Washington St. @ Arizona
Saturday
St. Joe’s @ Temple
Connecticut @ Indiana
Minnesota @ Ohio St.
Wisconsin @ Purdue
Oklahoma @ Baylor
Texas Tech @ Texas
Georgetown @ West Virginia
Notre Dame @ Villanova
Gonzaga @ Memphis
Creighton @ S. Illinois
UNLV @ San Diego St.
New Mexico @ BYU
USC @ Oregon
Washington St. @ Arizona St.
Mississippi @ Mississippi St.
Sunday
Xavier @ Massachusetts
Clemson @ Miami (FL)
Duke @ Maryland
Providence @ Syracuse
Vanderbilt @ Florida
This first week of projections won’t feature the normal extracurriculars (last five out, last five in etc). I moved back the first week of projections as it is because there is just too much clutter after the top 10-15 teams. It was difficult to even find 65 teams that were worthy of being classified as “in the field.” But, that’s one of the reasons why I enjoy the projections so much. With each passing week, the projections mold into a more accurate depiction of the field. The parity in the major conferences thus far (the ACC and Big XII only have two teams in the RPI 25, the Big Ten, SEC, and Big East only have three) and the rise of the mid-majors (eight of the RPI 25 are not from one of the six major conferences) have created too much ambiguity to take these projections seriously. But, we have to start somewhere. Things should look a whole lot better two weeks from now.
Don’t Mess with the A-10
After catapulting itself into semi-major status over the last couple years, the Missouri Valley Conference will struggle to get two bids this year and even if it does continue its streak of at least two bids for the 10th straight year, it will do so in less impressive fashion. That would normally mean more bids up-for-grabs for the major conferences but "not so fast, my friend". Contrary to what we have been led to believe over the last decade, the A-10 still exists and it’s pissed. The A-10s list of non-conference victims is shocking. The conference has 25 wins over the RPI 100 (the Big Ten has 18) despite having the most difficult non-conference schedule of any of the top 10 conferences. Despite its grueling SOS, it has managed a non-conference record of 116-66 (.637 %) which is considerably better than its 98-83 (.515 %) record a year ago. The A-10 has six teams in the RPI 60 including four in the RPI 20. The result will likely be at least four A-10 teams receiving tournament-bids which is the most it has had in 10 years. Even more surprising is that George Washington, Temple, and St. Joe’s aren’t fueling the charge. Rhode Island (hasn’t made the tourney since ’99) and UMASS (hasn’t made the tourney since ’98) along with Xavier and Dayton have done the most damage thus far. Tyson Wheeler and Lari Ketner must be proud. I can’t say I saw this coming but I’m glad it did. College basketball is better off when the A-10 isn’t terrible. On a side note, the A-10 has had 20 basketball members since its inception in 1975. One million pretend dollars to anyone who can name every existing team in the A-10 and pretend ownership of the world to anyone who can name all 20 schools that have participated in the A-10. Answer.
Teen Wolf
The much ballyhooed freshman class of 2007 has yielded a wealth of stars (Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Kevin Love, and Michael Beasley just to name a few) but I haven’t seen a better freshman than Eric Gordon. He reminds me of Teen Wolf. Remember the scene when Scott Howard turns into “The Wolf” and throws down dunk after thunderous dunk in a video montage set to "Way to Go" by Mark Vieha? That’s what Gordon reminds me of. He dunks like Charles Barkley. He is “lights-out” from 3-point range (42%). He can get to the rim on anyone at anytime. He could be a star in the NBA right now. The closest thing to Teen Wolf in the NBA is Baron Davis (the beard is just "icing on the cake") and I think Davis is Gordon’s NBA-equivalent.
The worst comparison I have ever heard in the history of comparisons was when the announcers of the Michigan-Indiana game two weeks ago (don’t quote me on this but I believe Musberger was involved with said comparison) compared him to Jason Kidd. There has never been a player in the history of great point-guards who compares less favorably to Eric Gordon than Jason Kidd. Gordon is a prolific 3-point shooter with freaky athletic ability who shoots first and dunks second. Kidd is a questionable shooter who passes first and second and rarely—if ever—dunks and certainly never dunks in traffic. So, please keep Gordon-comparisons to Teen Wolf, Baron Davis or anyone not named Jason Kidd.
As everyone in the free-world knows, Gordon originally committed to Illinois before Kelvin Sampson politely redirected him to Indiana. Generally, one recruit doesn’t make a team or a season. In this case, that couldn’t be more wrong. If Gordon kept his commitment to Illinois, the Illini would be better than Indiana and would easily be ranked in the top 10. Instead, Gordon went to Indiana and now the Hoosiers are clearly better than Illinois and ranked in the top 10. However, Illinois shouldn’t be too pissed. Gordon will likely take his monster-dunks to the NBA next season. Missing out on four years of Gordon would’ve been unbearable. One season isn’t nearly as bad. Plus, I’m not sure Alex Legion transfers to Illinois if Gordon were around. It’s possible those four years of Legion end up being better than one year of Gordon. It's also possible that Legion transfers to four more schools.
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Niagara
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Brown
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Southern
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large NC State
36 At-Large Notre Dame
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Villanova
41 At-Large Providence
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Arizona St.
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Stanford
48 At-Large Oregon
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Oklahoma
53 At-Large Baylor
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Ohio St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Mississippi St.
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large Cleveland St.
65 At-Large Illinois St.
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Big Games this Week
Monday
Syracuse @ Georgetown
Tuesday
Drake @ Creighton
Wednesday
Massachusetts @ St. Joe’s
Baylor @ Texas A&M
Akron @ Kent St.
San Diego St. @ BYU
Thursday
Dayton @ Xavier
UCLA @ Oregon
Washington St. @ Arizona
Saturday
St. Joe’s @ Temple
Connecticut @ Indiana
Minnesota @ Ohio St.
Wisconsin @ Purdue
Oklahoma @ Baylor
Texas Tech @ Texas
Georgetown @ West Virginia
Notre Dame @ Villanova
Gonzaga @ Memphis
Creighton @ S. Illinois
UNLV @ San Diego St.
New Mexico @ BYU
USC @ Oregon
Washington St. @ Arizona St.
Mississippi @ Mississippi St.
Sunday
Xavier @ Massachusetts
Clemson @ Miami (FL)
Duke @ Maryland
Providence @ Syracuse
Vanderbilt @ Florida
Friday, January 18, 2008
Nothing to see here
Two things on this very bright and cold Friday afternoon: First, heads up to Mgoblog for passing along this beauty of a story by Stewart Mandel. I haven’t commented on the ridiculous West Virginia/"woman scorned"-thing because it really isn’t worth commenting on. However, Mandel commented on it and I’m throwing my support behind his column.
Second, so that’s why the Minnesota Vikings gave up five players and six draft picks for Herschel Walker in 1989. They had to give up fair value for—not one, but—two personalities. The funniest quote that I’ve read in quite a while closes out that story. I didn’t realize Vince Dooley was such a comedian. All jokes aside, Walker is the man. I rushed for over 1,000 yards in many-a-game using Georgia ’80 in Bill Walsh’s College Football for Sega Genesis. The only player in the game who could even compete with him was Bo Jackson on Auburn '84. Hopefully Walker makes life easier for people with multiple personality disorder (dissociative identity disorder) by bringing attention to it. And, hopefully he does more for the disorder than that no-good, lying, Aaron Stampler did in Primal Fear.
Second, so that’s why the Minnesota Vikings gave up five players and six draft picks for Herschel Walker in 1989. They had to give up fair value for—not one, but—two personalities. The funniest quote that I’ve read in quite a while closes out that story. I didn’t realize Vince Dooley was such a comedian. All jokes aside, Walker is the man. I rushed for over 1,000 yards in many-a-game using Georgia ’80 in Bill Walsh’s College Football for Sega Genesis. The only player in the game who could even compete with him was Bo Jackson on Auburn '84. Hopefully Walker makes life easier for people with multiple personality disorder (dissociative identity disorder) by bringing attention to it. And, hopefully he does more for the disorder than that no-good, lying, Aaron Stampler did in Primal Fear.
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