NCAA Tournament Projections (Week of February 4)

Another week like this one and we won’t even need to wait until March to know the NCAA Tournament field. As I see things now, there are no more than 70 teams fighting for 65 spots. I regretfully left out BYU and Kansas St. this week. Both have favorable schedules the rest of the way. I think some of the teams that I have in the tournament right now will knock each other out opening up a path for BYU and Kansas St. to make it. Both are short on impressive wins but their RPIs are pretty good and they will both certainly finish with gaudy records.

A team to keep an eye on over the next few weeks is Tennessee. No team in college basketball has a harder remaining schedule. It would not surprise me if the Vols ended up 7-9 in the SEC. With victories over Memphis, Oklahoma St., and Texas, it would be hard to keep them out. I’m just not sure that a team with a 7-9 conference record can get in.

My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):


Changes from last week:

In: Virginia, Alabama, and Illinois

Out: Drexel, Northern Iowa, and Georgia Tech

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large Maryland
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Alabama
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Michigan St.
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.

The last five teams in the tourney right now:

1. Georgia

RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 28

Quality wins: Gonzaga (neutral), Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, andKentucky
Bad losses: none

If Georgia wins the games it’s supposed to win and loses the games it’s supposed to lose, it’ll finish the season 17-11 (9-7). I don’t think that’ll be enough. Georgia will have to upset Florida, Kentucky or Tennessee to get to 18-10. Anything short of that may send Georgia to the NIT.

2. Maryland

RPI rating: 30
Pomeroy rating: 23

Quality wins: Michigan St. (neutral), @ Illinois, Clemson, and Georgia Tech
Bad losses: Miami (FL)

I’m starting to think that two of the following teams will not make the tournament: Maryland, Clemson, Florida St., Virginia, and Virginia Tech. Right now, I think Maryland and Clemson will be the odd teams out. The Terps are 3-5 in the ACC with a brutal remaining schedule. I don’t see Maryland getting to 8-8 in the ACC. Should that happen, though, victories over MSU and Illinois would bode well in a straight-up comparison between those schools.

3. Illinois

RPI rating: 44
Pomeroy rating: 37

Quality wins: Bradley (neutral), Michigan St., and Indiana
Bad losses: none

Illinois has quietly become the fourth team out of the Big Ten. Outside of Alabama, Illinois probably has the least impressive resume of all bubble teams but the Illini survived the early Big Ten schedule to set up a soft final six games. Illinois could be playing Iowa in the season finale for its tenth conference win.

4. Michigan St.

RPI rating: 38
Pomeroy rating: 17

Quality wins: Texas (neutral), Bradley, and BYU.
Bad losses: @ Iowa

I’m convinced that Michigan St. is one of the top 40 teams in the country. Sparty’s only bad loss was at an improving Iowa team without the services of Raymar Morgan. MSU’s problem is the killer remaining schedule. Sparty has to play Wisconsin (2), Indiana, Michigan (2), Purdue and Iowa. A home win over Michigan is a lock of locks but the rest are going to be difficult. I think State has to win five of those games to guarantee a spot. That will be a tall order.

5. Alabama

RPI rating: 26
Pomeroy rating: 59

Quality wins: Xavier (neutral) and Georgia
Bad losses: @ Auburn

Alabama has two wins in the RPI 80 and zero wins in the RPI 40. The Tide probably has the least impressive resume of all bubble teams. Alabama has been ranked virtually the whole season but I question whether or not the pollsters have been paying attention. I can’t think of a compelling reason why ‘Bama should be ranked. Fortunately for Alabama, it has the easiest remaining schedule of any major college basketball team. The Tide get to play Mississippi (2), Mississippi St. (2), and Auburn. If ‘Bama can go 5-0 in those games it’ll be guaranteed nine wins in the conference. I’m not sure that will get them in so a win over Florida, Tennessee, or Kentucky will likely be a necessity.


On the outside looking in:

1. Kansas St.

RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 50

Quality wins: USC (neutral) and @ Texas
Bad losses: @ New Mexico, @ Colorado St., and @ California

Kansas St.’s resume is very poor. It has zero wins in the RPI 45 and just two wins in the RPI 85. The Wildcats have beaten up on the Big XII’s weaklings to get to 6-2 in the conference. Ten or eleven wins in the conference is definitely a possibility considering KSU still has some bad teams left on the schedule. There is precedent for a team to get left out of the NCAA Tournament with 10 conference wins. KSU could be another. Eleven wins would be a lock. I think it’s very possible. I can’t say that KSU will have proven it deserves a spot in the Tournament but I’m predicting it will make it.

2. BYU

RPI rating: 29
Pomeroy rating: 51

Quality wins: Air Force and UNLV
Bad losses: @ Boise St., @ Lamar, and @ Colorado St.

No team had a bigger week than BYU. In fact, no team has had a more important victory all season than BYU’s romp of UNLV. Up until that victory, BYU’s resume was short on quality wins. Only Air Force and UNLV remained on the schedule in terms of games that could increase BYU’s profile. I think BYU will receive an at-large bid assuming it continues to win against the weaker teams in its conference.

3. Syracuse

RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 44

Quality wins: @ Marquette, Hofstra, and Villanova
Bad losses: @ St. John’s

Syracuse is in a similar position as Kansas St. The ‘Cuse have an extremely unimpressive resume but a weak Big East schedule gives them a good shot at 10 wins in the conference. I haven’t seen enough of Syracuse to know whether they are a top 40 team but I don’t believe their resume is anywhere near the top 40 right now.

4. Purdue

RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 45

Quality wins: Virginia, Michigan, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Minnesota

I think the Big Ten will get five teams. Out of Purdue, MSU, and Illinois, I think two will make it. Purdue has the worst RPI of the two. Purdue will also have a very difficult time going better than 8-8 in the conference. As it stands now, I think Purdue is the odd team out.

5. Georgia Tech

RPI rating: 59
Pomeroy rating: 19

Quality wins: Purdue (neutral), Memphis (neutral), Georgia, Duke, Florida St., and Clemson
Bad losses: @ Miami (FL) and @ Wake Forest

No bubble team has a better collection of wins. Unfortunately, Georgia Tech has virtually no chance in finishing .500 in the ACC. Unless the Yellow Jackets can pull of an upset or two along the way, it will be the favorite to win the NIT.

6. Louisville
7. Providence
8. Hofstra
9. Drexel
10. N. Iowa
11. Bradley

Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament

#29 BYU
#41 Kansas St.
#47 Purdue
#49 Bradley
#51 Providence
#55 Drexel
#56 Northern Iowa
#57 Michigan
#58 Syracuse
#59 Georgia Tech
#60 Wichita St.
#61 Louisville
#62 California
#63 Old Dominion
#64 Davidson
#65 Mississippi

Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections

#54 Texas
#50 Vanderbilt
#46 Georgia
#45 USC
#44 Illinois
#43 Notre Dame
#40 West Virginia
#39 Virginia
#38 Michigan St.
#37 Georgetown
#36 Virginia Tech
#35 Stanford
#34 Arkansas
#33 Texas Tech
#32 Washington St.
#31 Missouri St.


Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (8)


UNC
Duke
BC
Maryland
Virginia
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU

Big East (6)

Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown

SEC (7)


Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Alabama

Pac-10 (6)

UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford

Big XII (5)

Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas

Big Ten (5)

Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
MSU
Illinois

MVC (3)

Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton

MWC (2)

Air Force
UNLV

Same collapse, different year

If Bill Martin intends to stick to his word, and plans on staying in Ann Arbor, then Tommy Amaker will be the men’s basketball coach at Michigan for a long time. That’s because Martin has said that as long as he is the Athletic Director, Amaker will be the coach at Michigan. It remains to be seen if Martin included an out-clause on that statement. I guess we’ll find out sooner than later. With Michigan basketball pulling its annual disappearing act, the only way Amaker isn’t out as Michigan coach is if Martin stubbornly stays true to his word.

The Michigan basketball team will miss the NCAA Tournament under Amaker for the sixth straight season. All sorts of players of varying talent have come and gone and the only constant has been a serious lack of preparedness and continuity from the basketball team. As much as I wanted Amaker to succeed at Michigan, he has shown that he doesn’t have what it takes to compete with the rest of the Big Ten. In my opinion, the only difference between Michigan and the upper-echelon teams of the Big Ten (Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin) over the last six years has been coaching. Every year, those other schools are at least competitive. Ohio State was on probation just like Michigan. MSU and Indiana have had years with marginal talent. Yet, they all have remained competitive. Like Michigan, those schools get their fair share of quality recruits. Some (MSU and now OSU) have a little more to work with. Michigan is nowhere near those schools in terms of on-court production. Even the comparatively weaker programs in the Big Ten (Minnesota, Iowa, and Purdue) have had success from time to time. It stands to reason that an average college basketball program would be able to make the NCAA Tournament at least once in six seasons. Six years is an eternity in the sports world.

Since Amaker has been able to keep the Michigan program on the up and up in terms of staying out of trouble, he may be accomplishing exactly what Martin had hoped he would. If that’s the case, then this post is a waste of time (if it isn’t anyways). If Martin is looking to help Michigan get back to semi-glory status, then he’ll have to thank Amaker for his hard work and send him on his way. I hate to say it but Amaker has left a very stale taste in my mouth with regards to hiring assistants and/or coaches without more than one season of success. Amaker didn’t have much success at Seton Hall but his Duke pedigree made him a hot commodity. Most people probably just assume that Amaker was hired by Michigan because of the success that he had at Seton Hall. In four seasons at Seton Hall, he lost 15 games three times. His records were 15-15, 15-15, 22-10, and 16-15. There is no question in my mind that his record at Seton Hall had nothing to do with his hire. He was hired because he was a Coach K protégé and because he had a clean-cut image. Martin took a chance on Amaker and, unfortunately, it has backfired. I don’t want to diminish what Amaker has done for the program. Amaker has made the college basketball world forget about Michigan’s NCAA troubles. There was a time when no self-respecting recruit would touch Michigan with a 500-mile pole. Thanks to Amaker, that isn’t an issue any longer.

Michigan needs to bring in a coach that has had success with inferior talent. Coaches that have succeeded with inferior talent are the fast ticket to restoring Michigan to national prominence. It would also benefit Michigan if it brought in a coach that has proven the ability to inherit an underachieving program and turn it into a force. In some respects, Martin has a convenient situation. He may soon be looking for both a new football coach and a new basketball coach. Ironically, the qualities and characteristics that Michigan should be looking for are the same for both programs. Both ‘M’ football and ‘M’ basketball have struggled to develop players and adjust game-plans. Both programs need coaches that can maximize talent. It doesn’t matter if it’s not a big name. In fact, the coaches that have had the most success in college basketball recently haven’t had the big names. Bill Self, Bruce Weber, and Thad Matta are just a couple of previously unheralded coaches that have had success in the Big Ten. Michigan needs a coach that will be able to win with whatever he inherits. That would require a coach that has proven an ability to excel with the X’s and O’s. Michigan is not to the point where it can expect recruits to beg for a scholarship offer. That only comes with winning on the big stage. The cycle has to be broken and the only way that will happen is if Michigan hires a coach that can win in the intermediate. That’s how downtrodden programs are able to rise from obscurity. I’ll be posting a list of potential candidates next week.

I know there are some Michigan fans out there that still want to give Amaker more time. I can understand the desire to be loyal to a man that has worked tirelessly to restore Michigan’s tainted image. Unfortunately, big-time collegiate sports are as much about wins and losses as they are about having integrity. I know a lot of people with integrity but that doesn’t mean they should be coaching a D-1 college basketball team. The goal is to be superior in both facets. Amaker has proven that he can’t lead a team to big things. I liken the situation to a dreadful contestant on American Idol that asks to sing one more song. It doesn’t matter how many songs they sing, the result is the same. You can either sing or you can’t. Amaker has had numerous chances to sing a different song and the result has been the same every time. As poor as Michigan has appeared over the last six years, the reality is much worse than that. Michigan has managed to somewhat save face by winning an exorbitant amount of games at home against terrible basketball teams. If you dig a little deeper, you’ll find that the truth is probably much worse than you ever thought it was.

Here are some facts about Amaker’s coaching career:

--Amaker’s basketball teams have never finished with less than 10 losses.

--The only two teams in the Big Ten that Michigan has a winning record against under Amaker are Northwestern and Penn St. He is 17-3 against those two schools and 24-51 against everyone else. 41% of Amaker’s Big Ten wins have come against Northwestern and Penn St.

-- Michigan has finished above .500 in the Big Ten once in six seasons.

-- Michigan is 14-37 on the road in the Big Ten over the last six seasons. For comparison, Northwestern is 11-41.

--Of those 14 road wins, nine of them came against Northwestern and Penn St. That means Michigan has a 5-35 road record against Big Ten teams not named Northwestern and Penn St.

--Amaker’s teams have made the NCAA Tournament one time in ten seasons.

--Amaker’s teams have only finished above .500 in six of his ten seasons.

--In his six seasons at Michigan, Amaker is 29-64 against teams in the RPI 100. For comparison, Northwestern has 25 wins against the RPI 100 over the same time period.

--On the other side, Amaker is 64-13 against teams outside of the RPI 100. That equates to 69% of Amaker’s wins coming against teams outside of the RPI 100.

NCAA Tournament Projections (Week of January 28)

I certainly did not expect to see so much change in just one week. By my count, three teams jumped into the tournament field based on strong performances. Vanderbilt and Stanford both went 2-0 while Creighton climbed to 8-3 in conference which leads (tied with S. Illinois) the MVC by two full games. Some of the stronger candidates from earlier in the season are starting to look more like average teams. Alabama, Syracuse, and LSU are three such teams. A team to keep an eye for next week is Virginia. The Cavaliers are 5-2 in the ACC with impressive non-conference victories over Arizona and Gonzaga. Virginia has Duke, Maryland, and Virginia Tech over the next 12 days. We’ll know more about them after that stretch.

My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):


Changes from last week:

In: Vanderbilt, Stanford, Creighton and VCU (CAA Automatic bid)

Out: Alabama, Syracuse, LSU, and Hofstra

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Idaho St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Sacred Heart
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Georgia Tech
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large Maryland
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Drexel
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Syracuse
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Michigan St.
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.

The last five teams in the tourney right now:


1. Creighton

RPI rating: 35
Pomeroy rating: 38

Quality wins: Missouri St., Xavier, @ Northern Iowa, Bradley, and @ Missouri St.

Bad losses: @ Nebraska, @ Fresno St., and @ Hawaii

I’m very impressed by Creighton’s two victories over a Missouri St. team that handed Wisconsin its only loss of the season. I’m equally disturbed by Creighton’s losses to Nebraska, Fresno St., and Hawaii. To be fair, all three of those games were on the road. Had Creighton taken care of business against those teams, it would be safely in the tournament instead of being the last team in. Despite those three blemishes, Creighton is 8-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference. Those that have been following the MVC know how impressive that is. If Creighton can get to 12 wins in the conference, I think it’ll get an at-large bid.

2. Georgia

RPI rating: 38
Pomeroy rating: 24

Quality wins: Gonzaga (neutral), Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, Kentucky, and LSU

Bad losses: none

I can’t keep Georgia out of the tournament if I tried—and trust me I tried. Georgia’s remaining schedule is so difficult that I don’t think it could possibly rack up enough wins to make the tournament. As of now, though, the Bulldogs are barely in. I’m predicting a 9-7 record in the SEC for Georgia. I think it will need to go 10-6 to make the bid dance. That means Georgia has to beat S. Carolina, Auburn, Mississippi, and Mississippi St. and then beat one of the following: Tennessee (2), Florida, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.


3. Drexel

RPI rating: 55
Pomeroy rating: 78

Quality wins: @ Villanova and @ Syracuse

Bad losses: @ Rider and @ Penn

I’m pretty certain that the Colonial Athletic Association is going to get at least two bids to the tournament. The problem is that Drexel and Hofstra don’t have the best RPIs. It’s starting to become clear that Virginia Commonwealth is the best team in the conference. I don’t see another team outside of Drexel and Hofstra with a shot at an at-large bid. Drexel gets the slight nod over Hofstra because of its impressive wins @ Villanova and @ Syracuse.

4. Vanderbilt

RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 48

Quality wins: Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Alabama, @ Kentucky, and LSU
Bad losses: @ Wake Forest, Furman, and @ Auburn

I would really like to see Vanderbilt make the tournament this year but I think the Commodores have less of a shot of making it than Georgia. Vandy’s schedule is probably the toughest remaining schedule of any bubble team. It has to play; Florida (2), Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas. That is six teams in the RPI 38. Throw in a pair of games against a formidable S. Carolina squad and things don’t look promising for Vanderbilt. Nonetheless, if the season ended today, Vandy would make the tournament.


5. USC

RPI rating: 57
Pomeroy rating: 33

Quality wins: George Washington (neutral), Wichita St. (neutral), Washington, @ Oregon, Arizona, and @ California

Bad losses: none

I’m not quite sure why USC’s RPI is so poor. The Trojans haven’t had a “bad” loss yet. They are 6-3 in the Pac-10 including wins over Oregon and Arizona. There is no question in my mind that USC has one of the better resumes among teams fighting for a bid. Despite its good standing, USC has a tough road ahead. A 10-8 record in the Pac-10 might be enough but with its mediocre RPI, I’m guessing USC will have to make it to 11-7 to get a bid.



On the outside looking in:


1. Alabama

RPI rating:
Pomeroy rating:

Quality wins: Xavier (neutral), LSU, and Georgia
Bad losses: @ Auburn
Alabama has a solid RPI but I’m not sure how. Its three “impressive” wins are borderline impressive. It has no victories over a team in the RPI 35. It is 2-4 in the SEC. Four of its five losses have been by 14 or more points. I don’t believe this is a tournament team. Its RPI is the only thing keeping it in consideration right now.

2. Syracuse

RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 45

Quality wins: @ Marquette, Hofstra, and Villanova

Bad losses: @ St. John’s

Drexel doesn’t have as good of an RPI as Syracuse but its quality wins stand up nicely in a comparison. Also, Drexel won at Syracuse. The Orangemen control their own destiny, though. A 10-6 record in the Big East looks to be a lock for Syracuse. That would definitely be enough for a bid.

3. Louisville

RPI rating: 65
Pomeroy rating: 34

Quality wins: Providence and Syracuse
Bad losses: Dayton (neutral)

The Selection Committee could have a situation on its hands if Louisville makes it to 10-6 in the Big East. It’s almost an unwritten rule that if a team in a major conference goes 10-6, it will get a bid. Louisville could get to 10-6 in the Big East without beating a team in the top 46 of the RPI. If Rick Pitino can get his boys to knock off Villanova, Marquette, Georgetown, or Pittsburgh, things might not be so complicated. I don’t see that happening though. This is not a tournament team. Remember that when Louisville is 10-6.

4. Purdue

RPI rating: 44
Pomeroy rating: 42

Quality wins: Virginia, Michigan, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Minnesota


If the Big Ten is going to get five teams in the tournament, then Purdue will be the fifth team. However, it’s not going to happen. I don’t see how Purdue could possibly finish better than 8-8 in conference play. That would certainly not be enough for a bid considering how terrible the Big Ten has been this season.

5. BYU

RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 63

Quality wins: Air Force
Bad losses: @ Boise St., @ Lamar, and @ Colorado St.

Air Force made the tournament last season with an atrocious schedule and no wins even remotely close to being impressive. So I guess BYU has that going for it. The Cougars have one win worth nothing and three times as many terrible losses. If the season ended today, I’m guessing the Selection Committee would hand BYU a bid. I have no confidence in the committee’s ability to separate fraud’s from legitimate contenders. BYU isn’t terrible but it doesn’t have anything close to a tournament-worthy resume.

6. Virginia
7. Hofstra
8. LSU
9. Kansas St.
10. Providence
11. Illinois
12. Bradley



Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament

#34 Alabama
#36 BYU
#40 Bradley
#43 Michigan
#44 Purdue
#45 Illinois
#47 Syracuse
#51 Virginia
#56 Kansas St.
#59 Providence
#60 California


Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections

#58 Vanderbilt
#57 USC
#55 Drexel
#54 Northern Iowa
#53 Georgia Tech
#50 Texas
#46 West Virginia
#42 Notre Dame
#39 Missouri St.
#38 Georgia
#37 Georgetown
#35 Creighton




Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (8)


UNC
Duke
BC
Maryland
Ga. Tech
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU

Big East (6)

Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown

SEC (6)


Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Georgia

Pac-10 (6)

UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford

Big XII (5)

Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas

Big Ten (4)

Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
MSU

MVC (4)

Missouri St.
S. Illinois
N. Iowa
Creighton

MWC (2)

Air Force
UNLV

CAA (2)

VCU
Drexel

NCAA Tournament Projections (Week of January 21)

More so than any other year that I can remember, there seems to be a very fine line between tournament worthy teams and the also-rans. I initially thought that this year was unique in the fact that there were so many teams that have a shot at making the tournament. Then I realized that there were so many bad teams that it just looked that way. With the exception of the Missouri Valley Conference and one or two “bubble teams”, most teams have already cemented their status for the post-season. Obviously a lot can change between now and March. A lot can change in just one week.

As it stands now, I’m having a hard time coming up with the “Next Five” teams that are just outside of the field. It seems like the Tournament is just begging for teams like Michigan, Stanford and Vanderbilt to do something. Bids are there for the taking. This weekend will answer a lot of questions in terms of where teams stand for the Tournament. I expect to have a much better feel for the field on Monday.

My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what it will do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial Hofstra
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Idaho St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Sacred Heart
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Georgia Tech
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large Maryland
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Alabama
43 At-Large LSU
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Syracuse
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Michigan St.
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Drexel
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large N. Iowa
65 At-Large Michigan

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be up to five teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.

The last five teams in the tourney right now:

1. Michigan

RPI rating: 39
Pomeroy rating: 40

Quality wins: Illinois and Purdue

Bad losses: @ NC State

Not having any road wins that could even be described as remotely good will be Michigan’s undoing. Illinois and Purdue are decent teams but both could miss the tournament. Nobody is going to be impressed with a win over Davidson. This team will probably collapse as it has done the last few seasons. The Big Ten will probably only get four teams into the tournament. Michigan would have to do something spectacular against a killer schedule to change that.


2. LSU

RPI rating: 53
Pomeroy rating: 36

Quality wins: Texas A&M and Connecticut

Bad losses: none

LSU might be thought of as a lock for the tournament based on its success from last season. However, it will have a lot of work to do if it’s going to make the 65-team field. The Tigers have only beaten two teams in the RPI 80. Their victory over Connecticut is looking less and less impressive. The good news for LSU is that the remaining schedule is weak at best. LSU should finish no worse than 9-7 in the SEC which should be good enough for a bid considering the SEC’s SOS.


3. West Virginia

RPI rating: 55
Pomeroy rating: 20

Quality wins: Villanova and Connecticut

Bad losses: @ Cincinnati

West Virginia is in a similar position as LSU. Both teams have 1.5 impressive wins and low RPI’s. Like LSU, West Virginia has a lot of winnable games left on its schedule. The Big East will get a lot of attention from the selection committee so a 9-7 record would probably be enough to get a bid. In most years, West Virginia and LSU would be in perilous situations but given the lack of tournament-worthy teams, they are still looking good.

4. N. Iowa

RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 58

Quality wins: @ Iowa, Bradley, @ Wichita St., Southern Illinois, @ Missouri St., and Indiana St.

Bad losses: @ Loyola Chicago, @ Illinois St.

With wins over Southern Illinois and Missouri St., N. Iowa has proven it is one of the best teams in the MVC. The problem is that with a weak RPI and no marquee out of conference wins, its resume is looking a little thin. Obviously if N. Iowa can continue winning in the MVC, it won’t have much of a problem.


5. Texas

RPI rating: 56
Pomeroy rating: 34

Quality wins: LSU (neutral) and Arkansas

Bad losses: None

Texas has a bunch of “cream puffs” coming up which will undoubtedly inflate its record. A 9-7 conference record is almost a lock barring an injury to Kevin Durant. That should be enough to earn Texas a bid.


On the outside looking in:


1. Stanford


RPI rating: 38
Pomeroy rating: 67

Quality wins: Texas Tech and Washington St.
Bad losses: Santa Clara

Stanford’s resume does nothing for me. It will have to beat the top four teams in the conference at least a couple times to be in contention for a bid at season’s end. Stanford’s best road win is a one-point victory at Virginia. This team has the RPI to get into the tournament. Now it just needs a few more big wins.

2. Illinois

RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 33

Quality wins: Bradley (neutral), Missouri (neutral), and Indiana

Bad losses: none

Illinois has a big match-up with Purdue on Saturday. The winner of that game will have a great shot at being the Big Ten’s fourth bid (assuming Michigan takes a nose dive). Illinois has the easiest Big Ten schedule that any team could hope to have. Illinois should go no worse than 6-3 in its remaining nine games. That would be good enough for a 9-7 record in the conference. I’m inclined to believe that would get Illinois in.


3. Purdue

RPI rating: 48
Pomeroy rating: 49

Quality wins: DePaul (neutral), Oklahoma (neutral), and Michigan

Bad losses: @ Minnesota

Purdue has seven wins against the RPI 100. That is one of the highest totals in the country. Only one of the seven wins is in the RPI 50. Before the season began, beating Oklahoma, DePaul, Virginia, and Missouri in non-conference play would have looked very impressive. Now that none of those teams is any good, Purdue is left with a bunch of semi-impressive wins. I think Purdue has to get to 9-7 in the Big Ten. To get there, it will have to pull off an upset along the way.

4. Providence

RPI rating: 63
Pomeroy rating: 62

Quality wins: Boston College, Marquette, and George Washington
Bad losses: Brown and @ Seton Hall


Providence has zero road wins. I haven’t looked it up but I am guessing that no team in college basketball history has received an at-large bid with zero road wins. I doubt Providence will be the first. The best Providence could hope to do in the conference is finish at 8-8 and pray that the Big East’s reputation is enough to get them in. I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

5. Kansas St.

RPI rating: 54
Pomeroy rating: 60

Quality wins: USC (neutral)
Bad losses: @ New Mexico and @ Colorado St.

Kansas St. was my sleeper team to make the tournament this year. I thought the combination of Bob Huggins and Bill Walker would make noise in the Big XII. Unfortunately, Walker suffered a season-ending knee injury. KSU has managed to stay afloat which is a testament to Huggins. If KSU just wins the rest of its games against teams with worse RPI scores, then it will finish 10-6 in the Big XII. That would definitely put KSU in good position.

6. Bradley

RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 57

Quality wins: DePaul, S. Illinois, @ Indiana St., and Wichita St.
Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech

Bradley is only here because of its RPI. In fact, it was a toss up between Bradley and Creighton. Both have a lot of losses with decent RPI’s. Bradley’s resume is just a little better. The MVC schedule is so brutal that Bradley might struggle to finish 10-8 in the conference. I don’t see a 10-8 MVC team getting a bid.

7. Vanderbilt

RPI rating: 66
Pomeroy rating: 55

Quality wins: Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Alabama, @ Kentucky
Bad losses: @ Wake Forest, Furman, and @ Auburn

I don’t think there is another team in all of college basketball with four wins as impressive as the Commodores. Vandy has two problems. One, it has a brutal loss to Furman. That will be a very large black mark. Two, Vandy may have the toughest remaining schedule of any team in college basketball. LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, and Arkansas may result in a 0-6 record. That would give Vandy 12 losses on the season. If Vandy can win two of those games, I think it’ll get in.


8. Creighton
9. Louisville
10. California
11. Indiana St.
12. UMass
13. UConn
14. BYU
15. Wichita St.
16. Georgia
17. Dayton



Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament

#36 Bradley
#38 Stanford
#41 California
#42 Creighton
#46 Illinois
#48 Purdue
#50 Georgia
#52 BYU
#54 Kansas St.
#57 Davidson
#59 Dayton
#60 Wichita St.


Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections

#58 USC
#56 Texas
#55 West Virginia
#53 LSU
#49 Notre Dame
#45 Northern Iowa
#44 Syracuse
#39 Michigan


Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (8)


UNC
Duke
BC
Maryland
Ga. Tech
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU

Big East (7)

Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Georgetown

SEC (6)


Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
LSU
Alabama

Pac-10 (5)

UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC

Big Ten (5)

Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
MSU
Michigan

MVC (3)

Missouri St.
S. Illinois
N. Iowa


MWC (2)

Air Force
UNLV

CAA (2)

Hofstra
Drexel


The Missouri Valley Conference Dilemma

Last season, the MVC proved it could play with the best conferences in America with its success in the NCAA Tournament. This season, the MVC has skyrocketed into the top four of the RPI non-conference ratings. The number of quality wins for the conference is too long to list. The problem isn’t that the MVC is still viewed as a mid-major. I think that the Selection Committee is more than willing to reward the MVC for its non-conference accomplishments. The problem is that despite its amazing RPI score, the conference’s best teams have collectively disappointed in conference play. I am sure that much of the disappointment can be attributed to the strength of the conference from top to bottom. Even the conference’s bottom feeders (Drake, Evansville, and Illinois St.) have impressive wins this season.

Unfortunately for the MVC, its top teams have put themselves in perilous situations in terms of their Selection Sunday fate. An argument can be made that seven teams deserve bids. An argument can also be made that only two teams deserve bids. A similar situation occurred with the MVC last season. I tried to rank every potential tournament team in the conference using the Selection Committee’s standards. I was able to come up with a fairly significant cutoff point where five teams seemed to be deserving of bids. Unfortunately, the Selection Committee made a horrendous decision in leaving Missouri St. out of the tournament. This season is going to be much more difficult. With seven teams having legitimate chances to make the tournament, it is almost impossible to differentiate between them.

The most enjoyable aspect of college basketball last season was following the MVC (and to some extent the Colonial Athletic Association). I encourage anyone who is a college basketball fan to tune in. There are no “gimmes” in the MVC. Just when you think you have something figured out, everything changes. I have no vested interest whatsoever in the MVC other than as a casual fan. From what I’ve seen over the last two years, the MVC is the most exciting conference in America.

C-Webb is the new 'Sheed

Well, the first half the Pistons played last night nearly brought a tear to my eye. I haven’t seen efficiency in the post like that from the Pistons in a long, long time. I can honestly say that I had gotten used to the fact that the Pistons were just going to be a marginal team for the foreseeable future. Joe Dumars had made two good moves (drafting Jason Maxiell and letting Ben Wallace leave) in three years. Rasheed Wallace hasn’t played in the post in two years. None of the Pistons youngsters were improving even the slightest bit. That was the reality of Pistons basketball two months ago.

Thankfully, that isn’t the reality today. The best way to turn around the fortunes of a professional sports franchise is, and always will be, to get something for nothing. The Pistons got Rasheed Wallace for nothing and road him to the NBA Championship. Now, two years later, they have inexplicably added Chris Webber for nothing. The Pistons have used up enough good fortune to last a Detroit Lions playoff drought or 100 years—whichever comes first.

There are only six players in the history of the NBA that have averaged 20+ points 10+ rebound and 4+ assists over an entire career. Webber is one of those six. When Wallace came to Detroit, he stopped playing the way he had played for his first eight years. He became a role player. He didn’t need to be the old Rasheed for the Pistons to win. He just needed to fill in where the Pistons needed him. Webber will do the just the same. He won’t average 20 and 10 with Detroit but his passing skills and his ability to demand a double-team will bring everything the Pistons could ask for and more. Remember those unbelievably mind-numbing, soul-sucking, scoring droughts that the Pistons have gone on over the last few years? Well, those are a thing of the past.

Now, this would have been a whole lot more fun to write about had the Pistons actually won last night. With Billups back in the lineup and Webber making his debut, this had all the makings of a Pistons coming out party. A one-point loss to one of the best teams in the NBA is hardly a cause for concern. Webber and the rest of the Pistons will need to get comfortable before everything clicks. I’m guessing that’ll be sooner than later. My biggest concern is an injury. If everyone is healthy, the Pistons are as good as anyone. If any of the starting five is out, it’s all over. I am definitely worried about the brittle bones and tender ligaments in the legs of C-Webb, ‘Sheed, and Chauncey.

Although the C-Webb addition is certainly the big news, what might be equally important are the developments of Carlos Delfino and Jason Maxiell, and the re-emergence of Antonio McDyess, Lindsey Hunter, and Dale Davis. Delfino and Maxiell are quickly becoming two of my favorite players. Whereas last season I hated it when Delfino had the ball, I actually like it when he is involved in a play. He hustles as much as any player on the team. He has become a much better shooter. He actually looks comfortable out there which is an amazing development from last season. Maxiell is a slightly less talented Barkley (OK, maybe a little more than “slightly”). His jump shot is lethal. His athleticism and hops are phenomenal for a man as big as he is. There is no question that Webber’s arrival will stunt Maxiell’s basketball growth but that is a necessary evil. McDyess, Hunter and Davis are providing a huge lift off the bench. I think the Pistons bench is at least on par with the 2004 bench (Corliss Williamson, Mehmet Okur, Mike James, Elden Campbell, and Lindsey Hunter). Davis is a solid rebounder and a decent defensive presence. Hunter is still amazingly quick as he approaches 60 years of age. McDyess is about as good as a bench player can be. Everybody brings something crucial to the equation. The only thing missing, really, is a legitimate and consistent three-point threat.

One name that I haven’t mentioned is Nazr Mohammed. When I had resigned to the fact that the Pistons were just going to be a slightly above average team this season, I was happy with the way Mohammed was playing. He does everything that you could ask for out of a $5 million/year big-man. In fact, he might actually be a bargain at that price compared to some of the other big-man salaries out there. The problem with Mohammed is that he has convinced himself that getting more minutes on a weak team is more important than playing a back-up role on a great team. Does Mohammed have any idea how many players in the league would love to be making $5 million a year without any pressure on a team with a legitimate chance at winning an NBA Championship? Maybe he’s happy with the ring that he won with San Antonio. Whatever it is, he needs to go. Webber’s presence makes Mohammed expendable. There is no question that Mohammed would provide depth for the inevitable playoff match-up against Shaq and Miami. The good news is that since adding Webber cost virtually nothing, the Pistons can trade Mohammed for a pretty good perimeter player. The Pistons are rumored to be interested in Bonzi Wells, Morris Peterson, and Marko Jaric. I would hope that Jaric would be a distant third on that list. Wells or Peterson would be a huge lift off of the bench. Despite the depth that the Pistons have right now and the improved offensive dynamic, the team could always use scoring and ball-handling.

It never crossed my mind that the Pistons would have a better team this season than last season. Letting Ben Wallace chase faux happiness was absolutely the right move to make but I thought the run of being a legitimate Championship contender ended last season. The addition of Webber makes the Pistons more dangerous than they ever were under Wallace. Even for great defensive teams, it is nearly impossible to win an NBA Championship playing four on five on offense. Webber’s addition changes so many things. Now, the fact that Rasheed Wallace thinks he’s a shooting guard isn’t such a big deal. Webber is more than capable of being the Pistons post-presence when Rasheed forgets that he is 6’11. Webber also makes teams have to play honest defense against Billups, Hamilton, and Prince. Defenses will no longer be able to completely ignore one player (i.e. Ben Wallace and even Nazr Mohammed to some extent). That will create so many more easy buckets which will be a godsend for a team that has struggled to get easy baskets. The Pistons may not be as good defensively as they were with Ben but the increase in offensive prowess will more than offset the slight drop defensively. Plus, Prince and ‘Sheed are two of the better defenders in the league. Webber is a defensive liability when he has to be the primary post defender. That isn’t something he’ll face with the Pistons.

Not only are the Pistons a contender for the Championship now, but they also have a bright future. With Maxiell, Delfino, and Amir Johnson in the fold, the Pistons know they will have three productive young players in the future. Just two years ago, the Pistons had one of the least promising rosters in the NBA in terms of young talent. The Pistons will also have two first round draft picks this June in one of the deepest drafts the league has ever seen. It would be nice to see Orlando finish the season around .500 so at least one of those picks will be in the top 15. With a draft as deep as this one, there are a lot of things that a team can do with two first round picks. Hopefully Dumars can get on another run like he had a few years back. Two first round drafts picks and a young up-and-comer (Amir Johnson, Maxiell, etc.) can go a long way in trade talks. Maybe the Pistons could work their way into a top five draft pick (and make amends for the Darko debacle) or maybe they could trade for someone like Rashard Lewis. The Pistons aren’t going to have the roster room to hold on to the two draft picks so a trade seems likely.

I’m not sure how much Flip Saunders will affect things in the playoffs. In my opinion, the Pistons won the NBA Championship in 2004 in spite of Larry Brown. There will never be a worse offensive team to win an NBA Championship. Still, the Pistons were talented enough to win. That makes me think that whatever deficiencies Saunders has, the Pistons can overcome them. I’m not even certain that Saunders isn’t capable of leading a team to a Championship. I just haven’t seen too much since he’s been here. His biggest chores are to figure out the best rotation and make sure the team peaks in the playoffs. There are a lot of non-starters that will be very important come playoff time. Saunders will need to use them the right way. I can guarantee that Saunders is much happier with Webber and this year’s bench than he was with Ben Wallace and the no-bench from last season. Maybe C-Webb’s arrival will allow Saunders to flourish, or maybe the Pistons can win another Championship in spite of their coach. Either way, the odds of Detroit beating Miami when they meet in the playoffs just went from 1% (basically a Wade or Shaq injury) to about 50%. I’ll take those odds.