Last year at this time, I was about to embark on a season long “slugfest” with a coin in a contest imaginatively called the Coin Flip Challenge. The rules were simple; we (the coin and me) picked every NFL game of the season against the spread (ATS). The results were not good for the coin. My domination forced the coin into early retirement. I have to say that I am quite relieved by these developments since the coin was due for a big-time comeback. This year, I’m going to try out something new. Instead of picking every NFL game each week, I’m going to pick games that I would bet on if I had an endless flow of money. Call it simulated gambling if you like. The good thing about simulated gambling is that you can’t lose money no matter how bad you do. The bad thing about simulated gambling is that you can’t win money no matter how good you do. Since gambling would ruin my life in the same manner that fantasy sports did, this is as close to gambling as I’ll ever get. I’ll be picking college and pro games alike. This type of contest more closely resembles real life as I (or anyone else) would never bet on every game. There are certain games that are just too unpredictable to have a good feel about.
I won’t be putting any limits on the amount of games I have to pick each week. If I don’t feel good about any games, then I won’t pick any games. I’m trying to set the conditions to be as similar as possible to what would really happen if I decided to become a gambler. My inclination is that I will fare better by being selective rather than just simply picking every game. By definition, picking a game ATS should be a 50/50 proposition. By picking every game, my results will probably be pretty close to 50/50. However, if I can find the few “mistakes” or bad lines that inevitably pop up from time to time, I should be able to take advantage and increase my chances for picking correct games. Time will tell. I obviously think I know what’s going to happen but I’ve been humbled by sports many, many times before.
Since college football starts a week before the NFL, I’ll only be picking CFB games this week.
Your answer key to riches……
(Home teams in CAPS; my picks in Bold)
Boston College -11 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN
I can’t believe the line for this game is less than two touchdowns. Did I miss something like Kelly Baraka and Agim Shabaj enrolling at CMU? This game should be a blow out. BC has been solid every season of Tom O’Brien’s tenure including six straight bowl wins. CMU has been bad every season of everyone’s tenure (or just about).
Minnesota -14.5 over KENT ST.
I’m a little uncertain about this game but I do know a couple things….1) Minnesota runs the ball down the throats of weak defenses and 2) Kent St. has a weak defense. Also, Kent St. is one of the worst teams in college football. Minnesota feasts on schools like that. I’ll take the Gophers.
Southern California -8 over ARKANSAS
This isn’t so much a validation of USC as it is a questioning of Arkansas. USC will score points and I don’t think Arkansas will. The Razorbacks should be better this year but it’s hard to get in sync when your starting running back is at half speed. Unless Mitch Mustain is the best true freshmen quarterback of all time, USC should run away with this one.
MICHIGAN STATE -29 over Idaho
If MSU doesn’t take its foot off the pedal, then this game will easily be a blowout by more than 29 points. I’m not thrilled about taking the Sparties by this much but they have proven that, with Drew Stanton, they can demolish bad defenses.
AUBURN -14.5 over Washington State
Oregon St’s near victory at LSU in 2004 makes me a bit “skittish” about taking Auburn since Wazzou is similar to that Beavers team. However, near the end of last season Auburn was killing teams. I think they’ll pick up right where they left off by handing the Cougars a beating.
FLORIDA -20 over Southern Mississippi
So much for respecting Urban Meyer, eh? In his second season at both Utah and Bowling Green, Meyer’s offenses were unstoppable. Now, he has twice the talent against a pushover. That should be good for at least a 28 point spread. I think the odds-makers missed the boat on this one. Florida should win big.
TENNESSEE -1.5 over California
I’m not sold on a Pac-10 team not named USC winning on the road against an elite SEC team just yet. Tennessee will bounce back with a power run game and a stout defense. Cal is always good under Tedford but it takes a different kind of good to beat a motivated Tennessee team at home.
INDIANA -4 over Western Michigan
I’m taking Indiana for one reason and one reason only; Blake Powers to James Hardy. That combination was good for 10 touchdowns in 2005. Hardy and Blake will both be better as Terry Hoeppner tries to revive the Hoosier program.
TEXAS TECH -26.5 over Southern Methodist
This is a vote of confidence for Texas Tech’s coach, Mike Leach. The Red Raiders kill teams that don’t have the word “Texas” or “Oklahoma” in their name. Last time I checked SMU had neither.
LSU -30 over Louisiana Lafayette
LSU almost always covers the spread against bad, bad teams. LLF fits the bill. My only concern is if Les Miles stays true to his Michigan roots and sits on the ball in the second half. He hasn’t shown that tendency yet so I’m guessing it won’t start now.
Texas Christian -7 over BAYLOR
Baylor could play TCU tough but I would take TCU in a line like this every time. The Horned Frogs have a dynamite defense and Baylor doesn’t have a defense. This game is no “gimme” but Baylor is never good.
PENN STATE -16 over Akron
I think the return of Derrick Williams to the Penn St. lineup will be the catalyst for a high scoring offense. PSU has a bunch of talent on “O”. Anthony Morelli’s inexperience shouldn’t be an issue until the Notre Dame game. Akron was the worst bowl team of all-time last season. I’ll take 2006 Penn St. -16 over the worst bowl team of all time any day of the week.
Army -5.5 over ARKANSAS STATE
I have a rule that I’m going to break. The rule goes: If Army is ever favored on the road by more than three points, I am going with the team that’s playing Army. But, the opposite of that rule is the corollary that if Army is favored by more than three on the road, there has to be a good reason for it. I would say that the fact that Army beat Arkansas St. 38-10 last season counts as a good reason. This one is for you, Bobby Ross!
Thursday, August 31, 2006
Monday, August 28, 2006
All Practice and No Play Makes Jack an Adult
Even though I’ve had my hands full for the last 26 years following the careers of every player on every team in every sport, I’ve always felt like something was missing from my sports experience. Fortunately for me, ESPN helped me figure out what exactly that was. The big emptiness that I’ve felt for all those years was due to a lack of overexposed 12-year old baseball players on my TV. Thanks to ESPN, I now have the option of watching 100’s of hours of coverage of games played by kids who may or may not still believe in Santa Claus. Don’t get me wrong, Little League was one of the more enjoyable experiences of my life. The key word in that sentence being my. If my baseball team was particularly good, we might have gotten 20-30 people to show up to watch us play. Even our own parents were more concerned with how long the game lasted than the outcome. Nobody in the neighborhood cared. Nobody in the city cared. Heck, half of the guys on the team didn’t care. Yet, kids just like me are now the “it” phenomenon for the ratings vulchers who will stop at nothing to attract the highly coveted male 18-49 demographic.
Part of what made playing sports fun as a kid was the fact that I could practice for an hour twice a week and then play in two games. Now, the ratio is more like two hours of practice for five days to play one game. Parents are more demanding. Kids are gently nudged into signing up for two or three teams in two or three sports whether they like it or not. One of the great freedoms of being a kid is the ability to do nothing or anything whenever you feel like it. The way it used to work was that kids would start playing sports in the 6th grade or thereabouts. Each year, the quality of play would get better until certain kids stood out above the rest. Those kids would inevitably catch the eye of coaches who then spent more time with those kids in an attempt to help them reach their potential. By high school, the kids that were able to combine skills with generous physical attributes would have a chance to play their sport beyond high school.
Youth sports have come a long, long way since what I just described was the norm. Now, to even have a chance to play sports in middle school, many kids have to sign up by the 2nd and 3rd grade. Any parent out there who thinks they’ll start their kids in sports at the middle school level is in for a rude awakening. Sure, great athletes will be able to play their way into the starting lineup regardless of when they start, but “average” kids will be permanent benchwarmers.
The exploitation of the Little League World Series is the perfect example of this phenomenon. The LLWS itself is great. I think it’s awesome that the best youth baseball teams get rewarded by the opportunity to play in a World Series in a global setting. However, the stress and pressure that these kids are put under by overzealous ratings people is not awesome. There happens to be a book on the subject called “Little League, Big Dreams” . The book is written by professional sports fanatic/researcher Charles Euchner. He explores in-depth the LLWS in all of its exploitation and glory. Without the overhyped parents/coaches and the millions of dollars on the line, the LLWS is what sports is all about. At least from the players, there isn't even the slightest amount of greed or selfishness. They play hard, have fun, and do it all for nothing but the joy of playing baseball. The book highlights every conceviable aspect of the LLWS which is a microcosm of the intensity level by parents and coaches in even the smallest Little Leagues around the country. The unfortunate thing about Euchner’s book is that it’s more a statement of fact rather than a glimmer of hope that the problem can be solved. The exploitation of the LLWS is like opening Pandora’s Box. Once opened, there is no turning back. Sure, parents can be educated about not demanding too much of their children. Grass roots campaigns can pop up exclaiming the importance of family time and child autonomy. The sorry truth is that none of that will change. Really the only thing that can turn back the clock is if people don’t watch. Nothing will cause the networks to jump ship like a bad rating.
I, for one, am ecstatic that my childhood memories are not monopolized by trips to three practices a day with a coach screaming in my ear. High School is the place for that kind of stuff. Kids can make up their own mind at that time. I can pretty much guarantee that the last thing even the most athletic kids want to do is waste their time at practice. Unfortunately, the change in the culture of youth sports forces parents to make a decision early on whether their kids will be successful at sports or not. If they don’t get their kids in at the right time, they’ll be “out of the loop” when they do decide. I find myself trying to negotiate this situation even today and my son is only 19 months old. I certainly don’t want him stressing out at seven years old because an overbearing coach or parent can’t stand losing. The more parents invest time and money into their kids’ endeavors, the more emotionally invested they get in the result. Now, parents want their kids to win for intrinsic reasons as much as for their child’s happiness. Junior’s well-being isn’t the only thing in play anymore. Not only is this environment unfairly stressful for kids, but it also overwhelms kids with time and effort. By the time kids get to high school, many of them are sick of playing sports all together; not because they don’t like the sport but the amount of time and effort necessary just to play one game isn’t worth it. Sports used to be fun. Now, it’s work.
The only solution that I have come up with that I can use when the time comes is to teach my son how to play sports myself. I can monitor his interest and devotion without sending him off to the sports version of boot camp. If he shows interest, then I have all the confidence that I can get him up to par in the skills department. This certainly won’t solve the problem of being “out of the loop” but at least he will get to enjoy being a kid for as long as he’s supposed to be. I’m not saying that every league in America is like this. In fact, there are plenty of non-competitive leagues that parents can sign their kids up in like the YMCA. However, a child who only plays youth soccer at the Y will likely not be prepared to play at the high school level. That’s why parents have to think carefully about what leagues they choose to sign their kids up in. A wrong decision could thwart their child’s chances of advancing in that sport in the coming years. If you find a league that effectively balances preparation for the next level, time, teaching and fun without sucking the innocence out of your child, then quit reading this and sign them up. The rest of you are just going to have to come to a decision that best benefits your kid. Remember, just because a seven year old says he likes basketball doesn’t mean he wants to spend every minute of every day practicing the game of basketball. I like pizza but I only eat it once every two weeks. An excess of even the most desirable things will inevitably cause a burn-out. That is why Dre Day went from being my favorite song to least favorite song in a matter of days. That is also why eating nine chicken sandwiches at the Mary Markley dining hall ruined chicken sandwiches for me for the rest of my life.
Whereas sports used to be a fun way for kids to pass the time, greed and the newfound need for parents to have the “best” has dramatically altered the landscape of youth sports. The amount of time and effort required to compete with the Jones’ these days doesn’t come close to the payoff especially when childhoods are being sacrificed in the process. I’m sure most of you remember how things were when you were kids. If you don’t remember, ask your dad, grandpa or uncle to let you know what the sports situation was like. The past pales in comparison to what is expected of kids today. Just be prepared to make the right decision without being caught up in the glam of having the “best” at your child’s expense.
Part of what made playing sports fun as a kid was the fact that I could practice for an hour twice a week and then play in two games. Now, the ratio is more like two hours of practice for five days to play one game. Parents are more demanding. Kids are gently nudged into signing up for two or three teams in two or three sports whether they like it or not. One of the great freedoms of being a kid is the ability to do nothing or anything whenever you feel like it. The way it used to work was that kids would start playing sports in the 6th grade or thereabouts. Each year, the quality of play would get better until certain kids stood out above the rest. Those kids would inevitably catch the eye of coaches who then spent more time with those kids in an attempt to help them reach their potential. By high school, the kids that were able to combine skills with generous physical attributes would have a chance to play their sport beyond high school.
Youth sports have come a long, long way since what I just described was the norm. Now, to even have a chance to play sports in middle school, many kids have to sign up by the 2nd and 3rd grade. Any parent out there who thinks they’ll start their kids in sports at the middle school level is in for a rude awakening. Sure, great athletes will be able to play their way into the starting lineup regardless of when they start, but “average” kids will be permanent benchwarmers.
The exploitation of the Little League World Series is the perfect example of this phenomenon. The LLWS itself is great. I think it’s awesome that the best youth baseball teams get rewarded by the opportunity to play in a World Series in a global setting. However, the stress and pressure that these kids are put under by overzealous ratings people is not awesome. There happens to be a book on the subject called “Little League, Big Dreams” . The book is written by professional sports fanatic/researcher Charles Euchner. He explores in-depth the LLWS in all of its exploitation and glory. Without the overhyped parents/coaches and the millions of dollars on the line, the LLWS is what sports is all about. At least from the players, there isn't even the slightest amount of greed or selfishness. They play hard, have fun, and do it all for nothing but the joy of playing baseball. The book highlights every conceviable aspect of the LLWS which is a microcosm of the intensity level by parents and coaches in even the smallest Little Leagues around the country. The unfortunate thing about Euchner’s book is that it’s more a statement of fact rather than a glimmer of hope that the problem can be solved. The exploitation of the LLWS is like opening Pandora’s Box. Once opened, there is no turning back. Sure, parents can be educated about not demanding too much of their children. Grass roots campaigns can pop up exclaiming the importance of family time and child autonomy. The sorry truth is that none of that will change. Really the only thing that can turn back the clock is if people don’t watch. Nothing will cause the networks to jump ship like a bad rating.
I, for one, am ecstatic that my childhood memories are not monopolized by trips to three practices a day with a coach screaming in my ear. High School is the place for that kind of stuff. Kids can make up their own mind at that time. I can pretty much guarantee that the last thing even the most athletic kids want to do is waste their time at practice. Unfortunately, the change in the culture of youth sports forces parents to make a decision early on whether their kids will be successful at sports or not. If they don’t get their kids in at the right time, they’ll be “out of the loop” when they do decide. I find myself trying to negotiate this situation even today and my son is only 19 months old. I certainly don’t want him stressing out at seven years old because an overbearing coach or parent can’t stand losing. The more parents invest time and money into their kids’ endeavors, the more emotionally invested they get in the result. Now, parents want their kids to win for intrinsic reasons as much as for their child’s happiness. Junior’s well-being isn’t the only thing in play anymore. Not only is this environment unfairly stressful for kids, but it also overwhelms kids with time and effort. By the time kids get to high school, many of them are sick of playing sports all together; not because they don’t like the sport but the amount of time and effort necessary just to play one game isn’t worth it. Sports used to be fun. Now, it’s work.
The only solution that I have come up with that I can use when the time comes is to teach my son how to play sports myself. I can monitor his interest and devotion without sending him off to the sports version of boot camp. If he shows interest, then I have all the confidence that I can get him up to par in the skills department. This certainly won’t solve the problem of being “out of the loop” but at least he will get to enjoy being a kid for as long as he’s supposed to be. I’m not saying that every league in America is like this. In fact, there are plenty of non-competitive leagues that parents can sign their kids up in like the YMCA. However, a child who only plays youth soccer at the Y will likely not be prepared to play at the high school level. That’s why parents have to think carefully about what leagues they choose to sign their kids up in. A wrong decision could thwart their child’s chances of advancing in that sport in the coming years. If you find a league that effectively balances preparation for the next level, time, teaching and fun without sucking the innocence out of your child, then quit reading this and sign them up. The rest of you are just going to have to come to a decision that best benefits your kid. Remember, just because a seven year old says he likes basketball doesn’t mean he wants to spend every minute of every day practicing the game of basketball. I like pizza but I only eat it once every two weeks. An excess of even the most desirable things will inevitably cause a burn-out. That is why Dre Day went from being my favorite song to least favorite song in a matter of days. That is also why eating nine chicken sandwiches at the Mary Markley dining hall ruined chicken sandwiches for me for the rest of my life.
Whereas sports used to be a fun way for kids to pass the time, greed and the newfound need for parents to have the “best” has dramatically altered the landscape of youth sports. The amount of time and effort required to compete with the Jones’ these days doesn’t come close to the payoff especially when childhoods are being sacrificed in the process. I’m sure most of you remember how things were when you were kids. If you don’t remember, ask your dad, grandpa or uncle to let you know what the sports situation was like. The past pales in comparison to what is expected of kids today. Just be prepared to make the right decision without being caught up in the glam of having the “best” at your child’s expense.
Sunday, August 27, 2006
The Silver Lining
The Tigers have not been good this month (August). Fans are growing restless to the point that even one 0-4 game from a player gets magnified ten fold. I can understand the frustrations. I am frustrated, too. But, it is important to remember that the Tigers were never as good as their record. Every time they played a stretch against the AL’s elite teams, they were bludgeoned. This should’ve been a sign for Tigers fans to temper expectations. Some heeded the warning while others wandered dangerously down the path of over-exuberance. This is not to say that the Tigers are a bad team, or that the Tigers won’t make the playoffs. Things have changed so much in the last three weeks that I have gone from the minority of people that consistently proclaimed that the Tigers weren’t nearly as good as their record and Jim Leyland isn’t nearly as good of a manager as the sports world has made him out to be, to being in the minority that still thinks the Tigers are going to the playoffs. My seat on the minority side hasn’t changed but everything else has. Now, I’m the optimist.
As of Sunday August 27, 2006 the Tigers are still four games ahead of Minnesota for the division lead and 5.5 games ahead of Chicago for the Wild Card lead. In similar situations, the Yankees are 5.5 games ahead of Boston and nobody in NY is worried while Oakland is 5.5 ahead of Anaheim and the A’s seem to be pretty comfortable. Granted, the Yankees are playing much better baseball than Detroit but 5.5 games is a lot. The Tigers are about to finish their toughest stretch of the season with a bigger lead than they had just a month and a half ago. The schedule gets much easier from here on out. The Tigers get to play two series against K.C., and a series each against Seattle and Baltimore. The Tigers also helped them selves immensely by booting Zach Miner from the rotation. Mike Maroth will return giving the Tigers a legitimate shot at winning every time out. Kenny Rogers has been the best pitcher on the team over the last six weeks which is a significant turnaround from the way things were heading just after the All-Star break. I’m not saying the Tigers are the best team in the AL, let alone, better than the White Sox. I am saying that the Tigers are good enough to hold on to two leads of 4 and 5.5 games respectively.
To be honest with you, everything I just said is moot in my mind anyway. I care if the Tigers make the playoffs to the extent that any fan wants their team to make the playoffs. However, the Tigers aren’t good enough to beat the Yankees or ChiSox in the post season. Simply getting to the playoffs is great for an organization that has been so bad for so long. But, the Tigers organization has more fish to fry in the future. What Tigers fans are seeing right now is only a glimpse of what the Tigers will be next year and beyond. The two best players in the organization may not even be in Detroit. Andrew Miller is killing people at Lakeland. Cameron Maybin is doing the same at West Michigan. The Tigers have won this year by the sleight of hand magic of Dave Dombrowski. He molded together a roster of serviceable, otherwise unwanted players and parlayed into the best record in MLB entering September. Nobody thought this was going to happen so soon. If that is true, and I’m pretty sure it is, then everything that happens this year is just a bonus. Tigers fans have been captivated for four months longer than they’re used to. Some may argue that it would be less stressful for fans if the Tigers just played .500 baseball all season rather than give so much hope only to take it away. If we’re talking about an old ball-club like the Atlanta Braves, then that might be right. When we’re talking about an organization with as bright of a future as the Tigers, then it’s always better to win earlier than expected. If anything, the success the Tigers have had this year legitimizes to the fans that a) Dave Dombrowski knows exactly how to build a winner and b) the Tigers young pitching prospects are the real deal. With the likely departures of Sean Casey, Dmitri Young, and the expiration of Troy Percival’s contract, the Tigers will shed 22+ million dollars from next year’s payroll. If there’s one thing Mike Illitch has proved in his tenure as the owner of the Red Wings and Tigers is that he’s a front runner. If his teams are crappy, he’ll ignore them like it’s a K-Fed rap album. If his teams are winning, he’ll nurture them like a bird regurgitating in a babies mouth (let’s hope it’s more enjoyable than that). Anyhow, if you can get that last sentence out of your head, there is plenty to look forward to. The Tigers have the deepest and most talented pitching in MLB. Dombrowski will have a bevy of young arms to dangle in front of other teams in hopes of landing dynamite position players which is exactly what the Tigers need. And no, those arms he’s dangling won’t be Verlander, Bonderman, Miller, or Zumaya. The organization is so loaded with arms that there are plenty of other prospects allowing the Tigers to hold on to every prove power pitcher on the team. I’ve grown to like the current group of Tigers positional players but the fact is that these guys aren’t good enough. They work hard and play well but without a lineup comparable to the Yankees or White Sox, the Tigers will be too weak offensively to contend.
I know it’s hard to see the silver lining in the midst of a potential colossal collapse. The last thing Tigers fans want to do is think about next year. But, next year isn’t that far away. If you think the rotation was good this year, then think about how good it’s going to be next year when Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander take one step closer to their prime years. Andrew Miller could be as good as both of those guys right now. As I mentioned above, the future is not now for the Tigers. However disappointing this season ends up being, the Tigers are the MLB team of the future. This year is just a result of the team arriving one year ahead of schedule. Having seen what Dombrowski can do with a limited payroll, I have no doubt that Illitch will allow the team payroll to surpass $100 million. The Yankees have proven that spending the big bucks can get the best lineup in MLB history but it certainly cannot guarantee you a pitching staff to boot. The Tigers are in the enviable position of having the arms that the Yankees have been searching for over the last four years. Once the free agent bats start arriving over the next year or two, the Tigers will blow the rest of the AL out of the water. I am proud to be a Detroit Tigers fan once again and nothing that happens this season will change that in the slightest. Those jumping off of the bandwagon still have plenty of time to get back on considering it wasn’t supposed to leave until next year anyway.
As of Sunday August 27, 2006 the Tigers are still four games ahead of Minnesota for the division lead and 5.5 games ahead of Chicago for the Wild Card lead. In similar situations, the Yankees are 5.5 games ahead of Boston and nobody in NY is worried while Oakland is 5.5 ahead of Anaheim and the A’s seem to be pretty comfortable. Granted, the Yankees are playing much better baseball than Detroit but 5.5 games is a lot. The Tigers are about to finish their toughest stretch of the season with a bigger lead than they had just a month and a half ago. The schedule gets much easier from here on out. The Tigers get to play two series against K.C., and a series each against Seattle and Baltimore. The Tigers also helped them selves immensely by booting Zach Miner from the rotation. Mike Maroth will return giving the Tigers a legitimate shot at winning every time out. Kenny Rogers has been the best pitcher on the team over the last six weeks which is a significant turnaround from the way things were heading just after the All-Star break. I’m not saying the Tigers are the best team in the AL, let alone, better than the White Sox. I am saying that the Tigers are good enough to hold on to two leads of 4 and 5.5 games respectively.
To be honest with you, everything I just said is moot in my mind anyway. I care if the Tigers make the playoffs to the extent that any fan wants their team to make the playoffs. However, the Tigers aren’t good enough to beat the Yankees or ChiSox in the post season. Simply getting to the playoffs is great for an organization that has been so bad for so long. But, the Tigers organization has more fish to fry in the future. What Tigers fans are seeing right now is only a glimpse of what the Tigers will be next year and beyond. The two best players in the organization may not even be in Detroit. Andrew Miller is killing people at Lakeland. Cameron Maybin is doing the same at West Michigan. The Tigers have won this year by the sleight of hand magic of Dave Dombrowski. He molded together a roster of serviceable, otherwise unwanted players and parlayed into the best record in MLB entering September. Nobody thought this was going to happen so soon. If that is true, and I’m pretty sure it is, then everything that happens this year is just a bonus. Tigers fans have been captivated for four months longer than they’re used to. Some may argue that it would be less stressful for fans if the Tigers just played .500 baseball all season rather than give so much hope only to take it away. If we’re talking about an old ball-club like the Atlanta Braves, then that might be right. When we’re talking about an organization with as bright of a future as the Tigers, then it’s always better to win earlier than expected. If anything, the success the Tigers have had this year legitimizes to the fans that a) Dave Dombrowski knows exactly how to build a winner and b) the Tigers young pitching prospects are the real deal. With the likely departures of Sean Casey, Dmitri Young, and the expiration of Troy Percival’s contract, the Tigers will shed 22+ million dollars from next year’s payroll. If there’s one thing Mike Illitch has proved in his tenure as the owner of the Red Wings and Tigers is that he’s a front runner. If his teams are crappy, he’ll ignore them like it’s a K-Fed rap album. If his teams are winning, he’ll nurture them like a bird regurgitating in a babies mouth (let’s hope it’s more enjoyable than that). Anyhow, if you can get that last sentence out of your head, there is plenty to look forward to. The Tigers have the deepest and most talented pitching in MLB. Dombrowski will have a bevy of young arms to dangle in front of other teams in hopes of landing dynamite position players which is exactly what the Tigers need. And no, those arms he’s dangling won’t be Verlander, Bonderman, Miller, or Zumaya. The organization is so loaded with arms that there are plenty of other prospects allowing the Tigers to hold on to every prove power pitcher on the team. I’ve grown to like the current group of Tigers positional players but the fact is that these guys aren’t good enough. They work hard and play well but without a lineup comparable to the Yankees or White Sox, the Tigers will be too weak offensively to contend.
I know it’s hard to see the silver lining in the midst of a potential colossal collapse. The last thing Tigers fans want to do is think about next year. But, next year isn’t that far away. If you think the rotation was good this year, then think about how good it’s going to be next year when Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander take one step closer to their prime years. Andrew Miller could be as good as both of those guys right now. As I mentioned above, the future is not now for the Tigers. However disappointing this season ends up being, the Tigers are the MLB team of the future. This year is just a result of the team arriving one year ahead of schedule. Having seen what Dombrowski can do with a limited payroll, I have no doubt that Illitch will allow the team payroll to surpass $100 million. The Yankees have proven that spending the big bucks can get the best lineup in MLB history but it certainly cannot guarantee you a pitching staff to boot. The Tigers are in the enviable position of having the arms that the Yankees have been searching for over the last four years. Once the free agent bats start arriving over the next year or two, the Tigers will blow the rest of the AL out of the water. I am proud to be a Detroit Tigers fan once again and nothing that happens this season will change that in the slightest. Those jumping off of the bandwagon still have plenty of time to get back on considering it wasn’t supposed to leave until next year anyway.
Friday, August 25, 2006
2006 Detroit Lions Preview
Restore the Intrigue
I’m going to make two predictions right off the top about the Detroit Lions' season. 1). The Lions will be closer to terrible than good and…2). From a fan perspective, this will be the most enjoyable and satisfying season to watch since Barry Sanders ripped our souls out. Fans will put up with a bad team if the sole reason for losing is simply a lack of talent. It’s entirely possible to be bad without making a mockery of the city and franchise. Unfortunately, the Lions have been “mockery” bad under Matt Millen thus far. This season, the Lions will likely not be “mockery” bad. They have more talent and better coaching than in previous years. They will play better defense. They will score more points. Winning games, however, is another story all together. The Lions will struggled to win eight games this season but, unlike the last seven years, this season will be a step towards respectability much like the season the Tigers had in 2004. The ’04 Tigers were not good but it was the first time in 15 years that the Tigers had a season that foretold something positive for the future.
I don’t foresee much success on offense this season. Kevin Jones is not the ideal back for a Mike Martz offense and vice versa. Jones is a big, powerful runner with above-average speed. He can catch the ball out of the backfield but that is not his strength. Martz’s “Greatest Show on Turf” offense in St. Louis was made in large part by the presence of one of the most versatile running backs in NFL history in Marshall Faulk. Jones is no Faulk. Much has been made of Martz’s ability to mold any quarterback, regardless of talent, into a Pro-Bowl quarterback. Little has been made of Martz’s good fortune of having two of the premier wide receivers in the NFL (Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce) to go along with Faulk. Even Steve Mariucci would’ve had a tough time keeping that group from putting up big-time numbers. Nonetheless, Martz garnered all the credit and subsequently gained the reputation as an offensive mastermind. If he truly is a mastermind, he should have no problem taking a serviceable NFL quarterback in Jon Kitna, an elite wide receiver in Roy Williams, and a talented running back in Jones and turning them into a proficient offense. I’ll believe it when I see it.
In all likelihood, Kitna is the best quarterback the Lions have had in my lifetime. That doesn’t necessarily say much but it is something to look forward to. He is the typical “gunslinger” QB that throws caution to the wind. He has had his fair share of brilliant moments as well as a fair share of bonehead moments. He is, for all intents and purposes, a playmaker. Yes, you read that correctly. For the first time in 30 years, the Lions actually have a playmaker at the QB position. It remains to be seen how this will translate on the field, but at the very least, Kitna is an upgrade over Mr. Happy Feet.
The most bizarre mystery entering the 2006 season for the Lions is easily the wide receiver position. As the entire world is well aware of, Lions GM Matt Millen spent three straight first round draft picks on wide receivers. Roy Williams is a legitimate star-in-the-making. There is little suspense as to whether he’s going to show up this year. He will. Chares Rogers and Mike Williams, on the other hand, could be in the starting lineup or playing for the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Rogers has been sidelined by a combination of injuries and the coaches’ reluctance to give Rogers repetitions in practice. I have a feeling that Millen is doing everything he can to send Rogers out of town. Remember, Millen went after Rogers’ signing bonus last season. There can’t be much affection on either side. Regardless of Rogers’ past indiscretions, he is a first round talent who will help an NFL team some day. I would hope that Millen would put his personal opinions of Rogers behind him and see what Rogers can do in the starting lineup. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened and it likely won’t happen. All of this leads me to believe that Millen is OK with the philosophy of buying high and selling low. Rogers’ value was at an all-time high when he was drafted in 2003 and it’s at an all-time low right now. Unless Millen wants to make the Lions’ version of the Darko Milicic trade, he might want to think twice before giving Rogers away. Mike Williams is a slightly different story. From all accounts, Williams just can’t get it done on the field due to a lack of conditioning. As soon as his quickness and agility improve, I expect to seem him playing meaningful minutes. The WR picture is muddled at best. The Lions signed Corey Bradford in the off-season but it remains to be seen how many reps he’ll actually get. One thing is for sure, the Lions have talent at the receiver position. I don’t know if it’ll all come together on the field this year but a “genius” like Martz should have no problem molding this group together. I’m just not so sure there’s a genius present to do the molding.
The running game, like the typical Martz ground attack, will be dependent on the success of the passing game. Considering the uncertainty described in the above paragraph, this is not a good thing. The Lions have “serviceable” offensive linemen at every position on the line. However, I must stress that there is a sizeable gap between “serviceable” and above-average. I feel bad for Jeff Backus. He and his agent bamboozled Millen for top-ten money when Backus isn’t anything close to a top ten tackle in the NFL. I can’t blame Backus for taking the money but I hope he understands that he will be criticized mercilessly by Lions fans when he inevitably plays like the top 25 tackle that he is. That is a bad situation in the making. Damien Woody, Ross Verba, Rex Tucker, and Dominic Raiola have all had mild success in the NFL. All five guys are good enough to not be considered liabilities. However, none of the five are difference makers on the offensive line. Without difference makers on the line, the running game will have no chance at sustained drives. I do not have much optimism for the Lions ground attack this season. The holes for Kevin Jones to run through will be few and far between. Any success the Lions will have on the ground this season will be entirely dependent on the passing game. With two of the best running backs in the NFL in Steven Jackson and Marshall Faulk at his beckon call in St. Louis, Martz ran the ball as little as any team in the NFL. Even then, his running game was based on the pass. Let’s just say there are a lot of bad things and few good things that could happen this year with the running game.
The defense is the sole reason for my expectations of a quality fan experience this season. The defense hasn’t been awful over the last few years but it certainly hasn’t been good. Certain players have been good (i.e. Shuan Rogers and James Hall) but the entire unit has definitely not been productive enough to be called good. However, there is new talent to go along with new schemes that could change all of that. Rod Marinelli cultivated one of the best defensive lines in the NFL while he coached the defense for Tampa Bay. The Lions have lacked any semblance of a pass rush as far back as I can remember. There have been occasional talents like Robert Porcher but nobody has been dominating and I think a lot of that has to do with a lack of innovation by the coaching staff. Marinelli will finally give the Lions some innovation. James Hall may take the next step in his development which may end with Hall becoming an All-Pro defensive end. Hall doesn’t have the physical attributes as some of the elite defensive ends like Simeon Rice but that shouldn’t keep him from making a name for himself as a formidable threat. Rogers will be back plugging up the middle which is good for the Lions and bad for everyone else. Shaun Cody takes over for Dan Wilkinson which could go either way. I still can’t understand why Millen couldn’t keep Wilkinson around. Maybe Millen got the impression that Wilkinson didn’t want to play for Detroit. If that’s the case, then Millen had no choice. Cody is a Luther Ellis-type tackle which should be a sufficient compliment to Rogers. While Hall and Rogers are excellent tackles, the true strength of the D-line comes from the depth. Marinelli will have his hands full trying to get snaps for Kalimba Edwards, Jared Devries, Bill Swancutt, Cory Redding and Tyoka Jackson. Marcus Bell is one of the better back-up tackles in the NFL. All of this depth is great news for a team that always has injury issues.
Before I say too much about the LB’s, I’d like to say that I'm done waiting for Boss Bailey and Teddy Lehman to a) start; b) make an impact; and c) stay healthy for more than three minutes. Bailey has played in 11 of the last 32 games. Lehman has played in 12 of the last 32 games. That probably explains why I have absolutely no idea how good either will be. They could be pro-bowl caliber or toilet-bowl caliber for all I know. All I can say right now for sure is that they’re both fast and more injury prone than Jose Canseco on the mound. Fortunately, the Lions don’t need Bailey and Lehman to play in order to be better this season. For at least one game, the Lions will have the services of First Round draft pick Ernie “the Walking Lobotomy” Sims. When conscious, Sims is a cannon ball. He throws his body around like he’s a decedent of Gumby. He immediately becomes the best linebacker the Lions have had in my lifetime, which again, isn’t saying much. James “Dirty as he wants to be” Davis and Alex Lewis give the Lions some insurance when the inevitable injuries/concussions to Sims, Bailey and Lehman take place. There is a lot of uncertainty with this group. They could finally come together as a unit or it could be business as usual. I’m guessing that this will be the best LB unit of the post-Barry Sanders era.
As most coaches/analysts will tell you, the defensive line sets the tone for the entire defense. If the d-line can stuff the run and pressure the QB, the LB’s and CB’s will have a tremendous amount of success regardless of talent. Considering the Lions will have a defensive line capable of both stopping the run and pressuring the QB, that is good news for the rest of the Lions defense. The secondary is average at best. Kennoy Kennedy brought a lot of hype with him from Denver as being a feared, hard hitting safety. However, it’s important to remember that Denver, the place that turns no-namers into stars didn’t want him. That doesn’t mean Kennedy is terrible but that at least tells me that his reputation as a hard hitter probably far outweighs his reputation as a good safety. Daniel Bullocks could be good. I wasn’t overjoyed when the Lions selected him in the second round but there is no doubt that the Lions could use help at that position. If he’s as good as advertised, then the secondary will be improved. The cornerbacks are not nearly as good as some would think. Dre Bly is nowhere near a shutdown corner despite his recent Pro-Bowl selections. He is closer to the average CB in the NFL than the best CB in the NFL. Considering Bly is noticeably better than Fernando Bryant, that is not good. The backups are extremely green in playing experience. The bad news is that this unit is the weak link of the defense. The good news is that the defensive line should help them out and injuries to a shady unit aren’t nearly as harmful as injuries to a great unit. I wouldn’t classify that good news as comforting.
The special teams have been the best unit in Detroit since 1998. Part of it is the presence of Mr. Lion (I think he has earned the title) Jason Hanson and the other part is the consistent presence of an above-average return man. Eddie Drummond is a poor man’s Mel Gray. He gives the Lions a chance to score every time he touches the ball. Since the Lions have been so abysmal over the last seven years (or 30 years if you are inclined), having an above-average special teams unit has been a waste. The importance of special teams increases exponentially when teams play close games. If the Lions are truly going to be better on defense this year, special teams may actually become a factor.
Last year, the Lions couldn’t have finished .500 even if they were good. Their schedule was brutal. Some teams ended up being worse than expected which made the Lions’ schedule a bit more manageable than at first glance. Still, they had an uphill battle before the season started. The 2006 schedule is a bit different. The Lions only play four really good teams (New England, Miami, Dallas, and Seattle). The rest of the schedule is made up of a bunch of question marks. Granted, seeing Arizona on the schedule is much less enticing than in years past. The entire NFC North is an unknown. Green Bay could be good or lousy. Chicago could be a defensive juggernaut like last year or a scattered mess like the year before. Minnesota doesn’t have any stars with the exception of Steve Hutchinson who plays guard. The Lions will have a chance in every NFC North contest. St. Louis, San Francisco, Buffalo, NY Jets, and Atlanta are all games that the Lions could win. Of course, having a chance and winning are two totally different concepts. My prediction for the Lions in 2006 is 7-9. I think 6-10 is more likely than 8-8 since it’s more than likely that I have underrated the NFC North as a whole.
When I was in middle school/high school, I couldn’t wait to watch the Lions play on Sundays. That is a feeling I haven’t felt since 1998. In fact, the only joy at watching the Lions over the past seven years has been laughing at them in an attempt to suppress my inner rage. For the first time in ages, I can’t wait to watch the Lions play football. I’m not hard to please. Like I said, I’m only looking at a 7-9 season here. The fact that I can’t wait to watch said 7-9 season should be an indication of how bad the Lions have been and how bad I’ve craved something to watch from my NFL team.
I’m going to make two predictions right off the top about the Detroit Lions' season. 1). The Lions will be closer to terrible than good and…2). From a fan perspective, this will be the most enjoyable and satisfying season to watch since Barry Sanders ripped our souls out. Fans will put up with a bad team if the sole reason for losing is simply a lack of talent. It’s entirely possible to be bad without making a mockery of the city and franchise. Unfortunately, the Lions have been “mockery” bad under Matt Millen thus far. This season, the Lions will likely not be “mockery” bad. They have more talent and better coaching than in previous years. They will play better defense. They will score more points. Winning games, however, is another story all together. The Lions will struggled to win eight games this season but, unlike the last seven years, this season will be a step towards respectability much like the season the Tigers had in 2004. The ’04 Tigers were not good but it was the first time in 15 years that the Tigers had a season that foretold something positive for the future.
I don’t foresee much success on offense this season. Kevin Jones is not the ideal back for a Mike Martz offense and vice versa. Jones is a big, powerful runner with above-average speed. He can catch the ball out of the backfield but that is not his strength. Martz’s “Greatest Show on Turf” offense in St. Louis was made in large part by the presence of one of the most versatile running backs in NFL history in Marshall Faulk. Jones is no Faulk. Much has been made of Martz’s ability to mold any quarterback, regardless of talent, into a Pro-Bowl quarterback. Little has been made of Martz’s good fortune of having two of the premier wide receivers in the NFL (Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce) to go along with Faulk. Even Steve Mariucci would’ve had a tough time keeping that group from putting up big-time numbers. Nonetheless, Martz garnered all the credit and subsequently gained the reputation as an offensive mastermind. If he truly is a mastermind, he should have no problem taking a serviceable NFL quarterback in Jon Kitna, an elite wide receiver in Roy Williams, and a talented running back in Jones and turning them into a proficient offense. I’ll believe it when I see it.
In all likelihood, Kitna is the best quarterback the Lions have had in my lifetime. That doesn’t necessarily say much but it is something to look forward to. He is the typical “gunslinger” QB that throws caution to the wind. He has had his fair share of brilliant moments as well as a fair share of bonehead moments. He is, for all intents and purposes, a playmaker. Yes, you read that correctly. For the first time in 30 years, the Lions actually have a playmaker at the QB position. It remains to be seen how this will translate on the field, but at the very least, Kitna is an upgrade over Mr. Happy Feet.
The most bizarre mystery entering the 2006 season for the Lions is easily the wide receiver position. As the entire world is well aware of, Lions GM Matt Millen spent three straight first round draft picks on wide receivers. Roy Williams is a legitimate star-in-the-making. There is little suspense as to whether he’s going to show up this year. He will. Chares Rogers and Mike Williams, on the other hand, could be in the starting lineup or playing for the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Rogers has been sidelined by a combination of injuries and the coaches’ reluctance to give Rogers repetitions in practice. I have a feeling that Millen is doing everything he can to send Rogers out of town. Remember, Millen went after Rogers’ signing bonus last season. There can’t be much affection on either side. Regardless of Rogers’ past indiscretions, he is a first round talent who will help an NFL team some day. I would hope that Millen would put his personal opinions of Rogers behind him and see what Rogers can do in the starting lineup. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened and it likely won’t happen. All of this leads me to believe that Millen is OK with the philosophy of buying high and selling low. Rogers’ value was at an all-time high when he was drafted in 2003 and it’s at an all-time low right now. Unless Millen wants to make the Lions’ version of the Darko Milicic trade, he might want to think twice before giving Rogers away. Mike Williams is a slightly different story. From all accounts, Williams just can’t get it done on the field due to a lack of conditioning. As soon as his quickness and agility improve, I expect to seem him playing meaningful minutes. The WR picture is muddled at best. The Lions signed Corey Bradford in the off-season but it remains to be seen how many reps he’ll actually get. One thing is for sure, the Lions have talent at the receiver position. I don’t know if it’ll all come together on the field this year but a “genius” like Martz should have no problem molding this group together. I’m just not so sure there’s a genius present to do the molding.
The running game, like the typical Martz ground attack, will be dependent on the success of the passing game. Considering the uncertainty described in the above paragraph, this is not a good thing. The Lions have “serviceable” offensive linemen at every position on the line. However, I must stress that there is a sizeable gap between “serviceable” and above-average. I feel bad for Jeff Backus. He and his agent bamboozled Millen for top-ten money when Backus isn’t anything close to a top ten tackle in the NFL. I can’t blame Backus for taking the money but I hope he understands that he will be criticized mercilessly by Lions fans when he inevitably plays like the top 25 tackle that he is. That is a bad situation in the making. Damien Woody, Ross Verba, Rex Tucker, and Dominic Raiola have all had mild success in the NFL. All five guys are good enough to not be considered liabilities. However, none of the five are difference makers on the offensive line. Without difference makers on the line, the running game will have no chance at sustained drives. I do not have much optimism for the Lions ground attack this season. The holes for Kevin Jones to run through will be few and far between. Any success the Lions will have on the ground this season will be entirely dependent on the passing game. With two of the best running backs in the NFL in Steven Jackson and Marshall Faulk at his beckon call in St. Louis, Martz ran the ball as little as any team in the NFL. Even then, his running game was based on the pass. Let’s just say there are a lot of bad things and few good things that could happen this year with the running game.
The defense is the sole reason for my expectations of a quality fan experience this season. The defense hasn’t been awful over the last few years but it certainly hasn’t been good. Certain players have been good (i.e. Shuan Rogers and James Hall) but the entire unit has definitely not been productive enough to be called good. However, there is new talent to go along with new schemes that could change all of that. Rod Marinelli cultivated one of the best defensive lines in the NFL while he coached the defense for Tampa Bay. The Lions have lacked any semblance of a pass rush as far back as I can remember. There have been occasional talents like Robert Porcher but nobody has been dominating and I think a lot of that has to do with a lack of innovation by the coaching staff. Marinelli will finally give the Lions some innovation. James Hall may take the next step in his development which may end with Hall becoming an All-Pro defensive end. Hall doesn’t have the physical attributes as some of the elite defensive ends like Simeon Rice but that shouldn’t keep him from making a name for himself as a formidable threat. Rogers will be back plugging up the middle which is good for the Lions and bad for everyone else. Shaun Cody takes over for Dan Wilkinson which could go either way. I still can’t understand why Millen couldn’t keep Wilkinson around. Maybe Millen got the impression that Wilkinson didn’t want to play for Detroit. If that’s the case, then Millen had no choice. Cody is a Luther Ellis-type tackle which should be a sufficient compliment to Rogers. While Hall and Rogers are excellent tackles, the true strength of the D-line comes from the depth. Marinelli will have his hands full trying to get snaps for Kalimba Edwards, Jared Devries, Bill Swancutt, Cory Redding and Tyoka Jackson. Marcus Bell is one of the better back-up tackles in the NFL. All of this depth is great news for a team that always has injury issues.
Before I say too much about the LB’s, I’d like to say that I'm done waiting for Boss Bailey and Teddy Lehman to a) start; b) make an impact; and c) stay healthy for more than three minutes. Bailey has played in 11 of the last 32 games. Lehman has played in 12 of the last 32 games. That probably explains why I have absolutely no idea how good either will be. They could be pro-bowl caliber or toilet-bowl caliber for all I know. All I can say right now for sure is that they’re both fast and more injury prone than Jose Canseco on the mound. Fortunately, the Lions don’t need Bailey and Lehman to play in order to be better this season. For at least one game, the Lions will have the services of First Round draft pick Ernie “the Walking Lobotomy” Sims. When conscious, Sims is a cannon ball. He throws his body around like he’s a decedent of Gumby. He immediately becomes the best linebacker the Lions have had in my lifetime, which again, isn’t saying much. James “Dirty as he wants to be” Davis and Alex Lewis give the Lions some insurance when the inevitable injuries/concussions to Sims, Bailey and Lehman take place. There is a lot of uncertainty with this group. They could finally come together as a unit or it could be business as usual. I’m guessing that this will be the best LB unit of the post-Barry Sanders era.
As most coaches/analysts will tell you, the defensive line sets the tone for the entire defense. If the d-line can stuff the run and pressure the QB, the LB’s and CB’s will have a tremendous amount of success regardless of talent. Considering the Lions will have a defensive line capable of both stopping the run and pressuring the QB, that is good news for the rest of the Lions defense. The secondary is average at best. Kennoy Kennedy brought a lot of hype with him from Denver as being a feared, hard hitting safety. However, it’s important to remember that Denver, the place that turns no-namers into stars didn’t want him. That doesn’t mean Kennedy is terrible but that at least tells me that his reputation as a hard hitter probably far outweighs his reputation as a good safety. Daniel Bullocks could be good. I wasn’t overjoyed when the Lions selected him in the second round but there is no doubt that the Lions could use help at that position. If he’s as good as advertised, then the secondary will be improved. The cornerbacks are not nearly as good as some would think. Dre Bly is nowhere near a shutdown corner despite his recent Pro-Bowl selections. He is closer to the average CB in the NFL than the best CB in the NFL. Considering Bly is noticeably better than Fernando Bryant, that is not good. The backups are extremely green in playing experience. The bad news is that this unit is the weak link of the defense. The good news is that the defensive line should help them out and injuries to a shady unit aren’t nearly as harmful as injuries to a great unit. I wouldn’t classify that good news as comforting.
The special teams have been the best unit in Detroit since 1998. Part of it is the presence of Mr. Lion (I think he has earned the title) Jason Hanson and the other part is the consistent presence of an above-average return man. Eddie Drummond is a poor man’s Mel Gray. He gives the Lions a chance to score every time he touches the ball. Since the Lions have been so abysmal over the last seven years (or 30 years if you are inclined), having an above-average special teams unit has been a waste. The importance of special teams increases exponentially when teams play close games. If the Lions are truly going to be better on defense this year, special teams may actually become a factor.
Last year, the Lions couldn’t have finished .500 even if they were good. Their schedule was brutal. Some teams ended up being worse than expected which made the Lions’ schedule a bit more manageable than at first glance. Still, they had an uphill battle before the season started. The 2006 schedule is a bit different. The Lions only play four really good teams (New England, Miami, Dallas, and Seattle). The rest of the schedule is made up of a bunch of question marks. Granted, seeing Arizona on the schedule is much less enticing than in years past. The entire NFC North is an unknown. Green Bay could be good or lousy. Chicago could be a defensive juggernaut like last year or a scattered mess like the year before. Minnesota doesn’t have any stars with the exception of Steve Hutchinson who plays guard. The Lions will have a chance in every NFC North contest. St. Louis, San Francisco, Buffalo, NY Jets, and Atlanta are all games that the Lions could win. Of course, having a chance and winning are two totally different concepts. My prediction for the Lions in 2006 is 7-9. I think 6-10 is more likely than 8-8 since it’s more than likely that I have underrated the NFC North as a whole.
When I was in middle school/high school, I couldn’t wait to watch the Lions play on Sundays. That is a feeling I haven’t felt since 1998. In fact, the only joy at watching the Lions over the past seven years has been laughing at them in an attempt to suppress my inner rage. For the first time in ages, I can’t wait to watch the Lions play football. I’m not hard to please. Like I said, I’m only looking at a 7-9 season here. The fact that I can’t wait to watch said 7-9 season should be an indication of how bad the Lions have been and how bad I’ve craved something to watch from my NFL team.
Monday, August 21, 2006
2006 Michigan Football Preview
Finally, Underrated!
Last summer, Michigan fans by the thousands predicted great things for the 2005 Michigan football team. On the other hand, I penned a two-part reality check titled Anatomy of a Michigan Loss exclaiming why Michigan was destined for disappointment in 2005 and beyond. To my surprise, there were actually people out there that had not realized that Michigan had been one of the premier underachieving programs in college football which prompted me to write a sequel. The exuberance of a young, talented team coming back combined with the near miss against Texas in the ’05 Rose Bowl shielded the reality that had become Michigan football. Lofty pre-season expectations followed by September swoons had become the norm rather than the exception. Fast-forward one year and the only thing that has changed is Michigan’s national reputation. For some inexplicable reason, the entire college football world has missed out on their annual chance to overrate Michigan in the pre-season. To be honest, I’m having a hard time figuring out how this happened. The formula for a generous pre-season ranking generally goes something like:
Maturing team (18 of 22 starters returning) + Well-respected coach (Lloyd Carr) + Previous year underachievement (7-5) + storied program (always ranked high) + little to no attrition (no devastating losses) = High pre-season ranking
Instead of following the formula, various voters from the Coaches Poll and the AP Poll took it upon themselves to trust history over expectations and rank Michigan outside of the pre-season top 10. Maybe they realized it themselves or maybe it took doing two minutes of research but either way, Michigan enters 2006 with its lowest AP pre-season ranking in recent memory.
The last time Michigan was ranked this low in the pre-season, Michigan went on to win a National Championship. I certainly am not predicting a repeat of 1997 but in the one case that Michigan came into the season under the radar, they proceeded to exceed expectations. On a much smaller scale, I think the 2006 Michigan Wolverines will exceed expectations. As I stated in my New Twist on the College Football Preview, this is by far the weakest college football season in terms of caliber of highly rated teams in a long, long time. If Michigan played USC or Texas at home in September, I would actually expect Michigan to win. Those teams have zero experience at quarterback. The Trojans and Longhorns are just two of a slew of highly rated teams with big-time issues on offense or defense. So, Michigan gets better by simply staying the same.
In a season where the pre-season top ten is laden with uncertainty, Michigan has very little to be uncertain about. Michigan “should” be better at every position. Chad Henne and Mike Hart couldn’t possibly regress from last year’s performances. Henne is entering his third season as the starting quarterback and seems to have finally taken over the leadership role on offense. Hart is healthy again and word has it that he’s sufficiently motivated for the season. I can’t recall many instances when a team has returned a third year starting quarterback and a third year starting running back both of whom were mega-stars as freshman and still managed to fall under the radar. Henne and Hart alone would usually be a strong enough combination to merit top-five consideration from at least one media outlet.
Even though fan favorite Jason Avant graduated, Michigan will likely attempt and complete more big plays than it did last season. New/old Offensive Coordinator Mike DeBord has gone on record saying that the landscape has changed in college football to a point where teams need to score a lot of points to win. A seasoned Mario Manningham will give Michigan a better “playmaker” than it had all of last season. Also, Steve Breaston can’t be any worse than he was last year. Michigan will likely involve tight ends in the game plan more often than in previous seasons. It would be great if Tyler Ecker could summon the vibes of Jerame Tuman with the bootleg but I’d gladly take Bennie Joppru at this point. Even though there isn’t a Braylon-esque receiver on the team this season there will be a number of talented players vying for playing time including LaTerryal Savoy, Adrian Arrington, and Doug Dutch. I would be willing to bet a sizeable sum that Michigan’s 2006 passing game will easily usurp the 2005 passing game. I would, however, caution against getting too excited by the prospects of some of the lesser known players (i.e. Savoy, Arrington) because Michigan has a habit of shelving underclassmen after the first game of the season and going with experience over talent.
The offensive line should be no worse than the 2005 unit. A lot has been made of Michigan’s focus on trimming down the offensive line for increased athleticism. This might sound like a trivial change but I think this will pay big dividends this season. Even though this might be the greenest offensive line in terms of experience since Michigan started three freshmen in 1997, hope is in the air. Jake Long may reach his potential yet having dropped 20 lbs which should significantly increase his mobility. The rest of the line will likely feature a combination of Rueben Riley, Mark Bihl, Adam Kraus and Mike Kolodziej (if healthy) all of whom have been around for 3+ years. Giving depth to the line is a bevy of underclassmen with high expectations including Alex Mitchell, Jeremy Ciulla, Mark Ortmann, Dave Moosman, and Cory Zirbel. One would hope that with that many options, the Michigan coaching staff could find a five-man combination that works well together. With the renewed off-season focus on athleticism, Michigan may actually be able to call and execute legitimate running plays that have all but disappeared from Ann Arbor over the past 5-10 years. The counter or the delay handoff has replaced the power run. My guess is that, over the last decade, Michigan’s line regressed athletically to a point that complex blocking could not be executed against more athletic defensive lines. When I was growing up watching Jamie Morris, Tony Boles, Jon Vaughn, Tyrone Wheatley and Timmy B., the Michigan offensive linemen had their way with the opposing D-lines. Things have changed so much recently that Michigan has been forced to bail out the O-line with strategic play-calling. Hopefully the emphasis on athleticism will bring back the bullying ways of old.
Last season, Michigan fans could essentially be split into two groups. The first group blamed Lloyd Carr for Michigan’s perennial underachievement. The second group blamed Jim Herrmann. Sure, there were hybrid groups that blamed both or neither. However, the vast majority had a beef with one guy and one guy only. Since Herrmann is long gone for the 2006 season and beyond, the second group will either be proved right, or be forced to turn its anger to new Defensive Coordinator Ron English. English has been the source of a lot of hope entering the season. His vision on defense consists of less complexity and more tenacity. English fancies a defense around getting after the quarterback at all costs. Michigan may give up the occasional big play but it will force more turnovers and intimidate the opposition into playing out of its game-plan. That is the type of defense that Michigan fans were proud of before everything fell apart in 1998. In the world of college football, defensive scheming can be successful without overwhelming talent. If English knows what he’s doing, Michigan’s inexperience on defense won’t hinder the chances for a successful defense. If Leon Hall, LaMarr Woodley and a number of other talented players live up to expectations, Michigan’s defense could be dynamite. Michigan’s defense under Herrmann had been so bad for so long that people forgot that it is still possible for Michigan to have a great defense. Herrmann was the lone consistent factor in every one of Michigan’s defensive disasters over the last eight years.
Despite the low expectations by the national media, Michigan still has an abundance of talented players on defense. With the graduation of Mr. Complacency (Gabe Watson), Michigan will be able to stack the defensive line with more active and athletic defensive tackles in Alan Branch and Terrance Taylor. Branch and Taylor are both big-time NFL prospects. They will punish opposing offensive running games. In addition, Michigan looks to have two healthy, motivated defensive ends entering the season for the first time in ages. LaMarr Woodley and Tim Jamison are both preceded by their reputations which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. That just means that this is the year for these guys to step up. If these guys get after the QB like they’re supposed to, nobody will remember last year or the year before. All in all, the defensive line should not disappoint. I hate to sound cliché here but this might be the best UM line in terms of discipline and execution since 1997. That’s not saying a whole lot but any improvement will be welcomed.
The linebackers will likely continue the trend of average to below average play. In the early 90’s, Michigan was a linebacker-producing machine. Guys like Erick Anderson, Steve Morrison, Jarrett Irons, and Sam Sword were just a few of the prototypical menacing linebackers that were fan favorites. In 1997, Michigan had success with smaller, running back-type linebackers in Ian Gold and Dhani Jones. That success continued with Larry Foote but the dividends stopped paying off after Foote. Michigan’s focus on smaller, faster linebackers has all but eliminated the 6’2 250 lb behemoths that used to roam the field. Considering Ohio St. still churns out big, mean linebackers with extreme success, Michigan might want to consider going back to what worked so well in the 80/90’s. The current unit enters the season with big-time press clippings from the high school level and little else. Dave Harris has a chance to shine as a prototypical linebacker. He is the one guy that looks and acts like a linebacker on the field. After owning the title of “greatest Wolverine who has never played a down” entering 2005, Graham was overmatched on the field. In Graham’s defense, expectations were so high from some circles that it would have been impossible for him to live up to them. I have confidence that Graham will step it up this season. His size can go one of two ways. He could become UM’s version of Ernie Sims, or he could continue the trend of disappointment from the UM defense. Prescott Burgess came to Michigan as a Safety. This is just speculation but I’m guessing after UM coaches pointed out video of Cato June’s career at UM, Burgess made the switch to linebacker. Unfortunately, that move hasn’t paid off in the slightest. Burgess’ tag-team partner in anonymity is Shawn Crable. Crable is a million feet tall and looks more like a basketball player than anything else. Yet, he’s playing linebacker. Michigan’s strategy of taking square pieces and shoving them into round holes has become protocol. Without much success to show for it, Michigan may finally realize that big, strong, fast linebackers still get it done in football. I hope I’m wrong about this group but I am fearful that the trend will continue this season making Michigan just as susceptible to the run as the past few years.
The secondary has more in common with burnt toast than it does with post-it notes. Unfortunately, that has been the case for a number of years now. That is why Michigan “recruitniks” invested so much hope in Michigan bringing in top in-state high school DB recruits Ronald Johnson and Dionte Allen. Johnson may still end up at UM but he won’t help this year. Marlin Jackson and Ernest Shazor came in with the same fanfare and their careers were plagued by inconsistent play and big-game letdowns. Much like everything else on defense, Michigan hasn’t had a great defensive backfield since 1997. I can all but guarantee it won’t have a great defensive backfield this season either. There just isn’t enough ability in the secondary for Michigan to be any more than mediocre at defending the pass. If this unit is going to have success, it’ll be because the defensive line is pressuring the quarterback consistently. Leon Hall is not a terrible corner. In fact, many people will actually go as far as saying he’s very good. I’m not buying Hall as anything more than a slightly above average corner. That’s fine if he is complimented by other slightly above average corners and safeties. Unfortunately, Michigan is stuck with a bunch of players that are unproven. Charles Stewart has the size necessary to match-up with big receivers but he hasn’t shown much. Brandon Harrison is fast but his 5’9 (in high heels) frame makes him a mismatch against most receivers. Ryan Mundy, Jamar Adams, Brandent Englemon, Willis Barringer and Morgan Trent are the other unheralded members of the secondary. Michigan will be tested in the air in 2006 which means things could get ugly yet again.
However, there is one caveat that may change the outlook for the Michigan defense. The most important unit on defense is, and always will be, the defensive line. A very good defensive line can wreck havoc on the running game and force the QB out of the pocket. If opposing QB’s are constantly under pressure and/or forced to abandon the pocket, the secondary is then able to play from a position of strength. Likewise, if the D-line can consistently gain leverage on the opposing O-line and tie up blockers, the linebackers will then be able to play from a position of strength. If the D-line doesn’t pressure the QB, players like Brady Quinn, Drew Tate, and Troy Smith will sit back and pick the Michigan secondary apart. If the D-line doesn’t control the line, Michigan’s inexperienced linebackers will continue to get brutalized. This season, success on defense starts and ends with the D-line. You will know after the first half of the opener against Vanderbilt whether or not things will change for the ’06 defense. If you don’t see Vandy’s QB running for his life, this will be another long season.
As I’ve mentioned quite a few times in the last month, this is by far the least talented group of teams at the top of the rankings in recent memory. Of the teams that make up the top ten in various pre-season polls, only West Virginia appears to be better than last year’s team. Notre Dame should be close to the same. Everyone else should be significantly worse than last year. Michigan, on the other hand, is definitely not worse. It’s a coin flip as to whether Michigan will be better this season or not but by simply remaining the same, Michigan has gained on the elite teams in college football. With three road games against three good teams and a home game against a top 15 team, Michigan has a tough schedule ahead. However, Michigan should be favored over Penn St. and Iowa. That means if Michigan can somehow sneak past the Fighting Irish in South Bend, Michigan will be favored in every game leading up to The Game. To look at the season as 12 games, one would have to view Michigan’s chances of success as minimal at best. However, going one game at a time, Michigan’s season hinges entirely on the Notre Dame game. A loss would push Michigan down the same old dreaded path. A win, however, would immediately thrust Michigan into the National Championship picture.
I can say with certainty that I will enjoy this season more than last. I still feel the exact same way as I did when I wrote Anatomy of a Michigan Loss. The only difference is that instead of being vastly overrated, Michigan enters the season slightly underrated which is infinitely more exciting from a fan’s perspective.
Here are a few Michigan previews by national media outlets:
2006 Michigan Football Preview by Fox Sports
2006 Michigan Football Preview by Wikipedia
2006 Michigan Football Preview by SI
2006 Michigan Football Preview by Yahoo!
Last summer, Michigan fans by the thousands predicted great things for the 2005 Michigan football team. On the other hand, I penned a two-part reality check titled Anatomy of a Michigan Loss exclaiming why Michigan was destined for disappointment in 2005 and beyond. To my surprise, there were actually people out there that had not realized that Michigan had been one of the premier underachieving programs in college football which prompted me to write a sequel. The exuberance of a young, talented team coming back combined with the near miss against Texas in the ’05 Rose Bowl shielded the reality that had become Michigan football. Lofty pre-season expectations followed by September swoons had become the norm rather than the exception. Fast-forward one year and the only thing that has changed is Michigan’s national reputation. For some inexplicable reason, the entire college football world has missed out on their annual chance to overrate Michigan in the pre-season. To be honest, I’m having a hard time figuring out how this happened. The formula for a generous pre-season ranking generally goes something like:
Maturing team (18 of 22 starters returning) + Well-respected coach (Lloyd Carr) + Previous year underachievement (7-5) + storied program (always ranked high) + little to no attrition (no devastating losses) = High pre-season ranking
Instead of following the formula, various voters from the Coaches Poll and the AP Poll took it upon themselves to trust history over expectations and rank Michigan outside of the pre-season top 10. Maybe they realized it themselves or maybe it took doing two minutes of research but either way, Michigan enters 2006 with its lowest AP pre-season ranking in recent memory.
The last time Michigan was ranked this low in the pre-season, Michigan went on to win a National Championship. I certainly am not predicting a repeat of 1997 but in the one case that Michigan came into the season under the radar, they proceeded to exceed expectations. On a much smaller scale, I think the 2006 Michigan Wolverines will exceed expectations. As I stated in my New Twist on the College Football Preview, this is by far the weakest college football season in terms of caliber of highly rated teams in a long, long time. If Michigan played USC or Texas at home in September, I would actually expect Michigan to win. Those teams have zero experience at quarterback. The Trojans and Longhorns are just two of a slew of highly rated teams with big-time issues on offense or defense. So, Michigan gets better by simply staying the same.
In a season where the pre-season top ten is laden with uncertainty, Michigan has very little to be uncertain about. Michigan “should” be better at every position. Chad Henne and Mike Hart couldn’t possibly regress from last year’s performances. Henne is entering his third season as the starting quarterback and seems to have finally taken over the leadership role on offense. Hart is healthy again and word has it that he’s sufficiently motivated for the season. I can’t recall many instances when a team has returned a third year starting quarterback and a third year starting running back both of whom were mega-stars as freshman and still managed to fall under the radar. Henne and Hart alone would usually be a strong enough combination to merit top-five consideration from at least one media outlet.
Even though fan favorite Jason Avant graduated, Michigan will likely attempt and complete more big plays than it did last season. New/old Offensive Coordinator Mike DeBord has gone on record saying that the landscape has changed in college football to a point where teams need to score a lot of points to win. A seasoned Mario Manningham will give Michigan a better “playmaker” than it had all of last season. Also, Steve Breaston can’t be any worse than he was last year. Michigan will likely involve tight ends in the game plan more often than in previous seasons. It would be great if Tyler Ecker could summon the vibes of Jerame Tuman with the bootleg but I’d gladly take Bennie Joppru at this point. Even though there isn’t a Braylon-esque receiver on the team this season there will be a number of talented players vying for playing time including LaTerryal Savoy, Adrian Arrington, and Doug Dutch. I would be willing to bet a sizeable sum that Michigan’s 2006 passing game will easily usurp the 2005 passing game. I would, however, caution against getting too excited by the prospects of some of the lesser known players (i.e. Savoy, Arrington) because Michigan has a habit of shelving underclassmen after the first game of the season and going with experience over talent.
The offensive line should be no worse than the 2005 unit. A lot has been made of Michigan’s focus on trimming down the offensive line for increased athleticism. This might sound like a trivial change but I think this will pay big dividends this season. Even though this might be the greenest offensive line in terms of experience since Michigan started three freshmen in 1997, hope is in the air. Jake Long may reach his potential yet having dropped 20 lbs which should significantly increase his mobility. The rest of the line will likely feature a combination of Rueben Riley, Mark Bihl, Adam Kraus and Mike Kolodziej (if healthy) all of whom have been around for 3+ years. Giving depth to the line is a bevy of underclassmen with high expectations including Alex Mitchell, Jeremy Ciulla, Mark Ortmann, Dave Moosman, and Cory Zirbel. One would hope that with that many options, the Michigan coaching staff could find a five-man combination that works well together. With the renewed off-season focus on athleticism, Michigan may actually be able to call and execute legitimate running plays that have all but disappeared from Ann Arbor over the past 5-10 years. The counter or the delay handoff has replaced the power run. My guess is that, over the last decade, Michigan’s line regressed athletically to a point that complex blocking could not be executed against more athletic defensive lines. When I was growing up watching Jamie Morris, Tony Boles, Jon Vaughn, Tyrone Wheatley and Timmy B., the Michigan offensive linemen had their way with the opposing D-lines. Things have changed so much recently that Michigan has been forced to bail out the O-line with strategic play-calling. Hopefully the emphasis on athleticism will bring back the bullying ways of old.
Last season, Michigan fans could essentially be split into two groups. The first group blamed Lloyd Carr for Michigan’s perennial underachievement. The second group blamed Jim Herrmann. Sure, there were hybrid groups that blamed both or neither. However, the vast majority had a beef with one guy and one guy only. Since Herrmann is long gone for the 2006 season and beyond, the second group will either be proved right, or be forced to turn its anger to new Defensive Coordinator Ron English. English has been the source of a lot of hope entering the season. His vision on defense consists of less complexity and more tenacity. English fancies a defense around getting after the quarterback at all costs. Michigan may give up the occasional big play but it will force more turnovers and intimidate the opposition into playing out of its game-plan. That is the type of defense that Michigan fans were proud of before everything fell apart in 1998. In the world of college football, defensive scheming can be successful without overwhelming talent. If English knows what he’s doing, Michigan’s inexperience on defense won’t hinder the chances for a successful defense. If Leon Hall, LaMarr Woodley and a number of other talented players live up to expectations, Michigan’s defense could be dynamite. Michigan’s defense under Herrmann had been so bad for so long that people forgot that it is still possible for Michigan to have a great defense. Herrmann was the lone consistent factor in every one of Michigan’s defensive disasters over the last eight years.
Despite the low expectations by the national media, Michigan still has an abundance of talented players on defense. With the graduation of Mr. Complacency (Gabe Watson), Michigan will be able to stack the defensive line with more active and athletic defensive tackles in Alan Branch and Terrance Taylor. Branch and Taylor are both big-time NFL prospects. They will punish opposing offensive running games. In addition, Michigan looks to have two healthy, motivated defensive ends entering the season for the first time in ages. LaMarr Woodley and Tim Jamison are both preceded by their reputations which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. That just means that this is the year for these guys to step up. If these guys get after the QB like they’re supposed to, nobody will remember last year or the year before. All in all, the defensive line should not disappoint. I hate to sound cliché here but this might be the best UM line in terms of discipline and execution since 1997. That’s not saying a whole lot but any improvement will be welcomed.
The linebackers will likely continue the trend of average to below average play. In the early 90’s, Michigan was a linebacker-producing machine. Guys like Erick Anderson, Steve Morrison, Jarrett Irons, and Sam Sword were just a few of the prototypical menacing linebackers that were fan favorites. In 1997, Michigan had success with smaller, running back-type linebackers in Ian Gold and Dhani Jones. That success continued with Larry Foote but the dividends stopped paying off after Foote. Michigan’s focus on smaller, faster linebackers has all but eliminated the 6’2 250 lb behemoths that used to roam the field. Considering Ohio St. still churns out big, mean linebackers with extreme success, Michigan might want to consider going back to what worked so well in the 80/90’s. The current unit enters the season with big-time press clippings from the high school level and little else. Dave Harris has a chance to shine as a prototypical linebacker. He is the one guy that looks and acts like a linebacker on the field. After owning the title of “greatest Wolverine who has never played a down” entering 2005, Graham was overmatched on the field. In Graham’s defense, expectations were so high from some circles that it would have been impossible for him to live up to them. I have confidence that Graham will step it up this season. His size can go one of two ways. He could become UM’s version of Ernie Sims, or he could continue the trend of disappointment from the UM defense. Prescott Burgess came to Michigan as a Safety. This is just speculation but I’m guessing after UM coaches pointed out video of Cato June’s career at UM, Burgess made the switch to linebacker. Unfortunately, that move hasn’t paid off in the slightest. Burgess’ tag-team partner in anonymity is Shawn Crable. Crable is a million feet tall and looks more like a basketball player than anything else. Yet, he’s playing linebacker. Michigan’s strategy of taking square pieces and shoving them into round holes has become protocol. Without much success to show for it, Michigan may finally realize that big, strong, fast linebackers still get it done in football. I hope I’m wrong about this group but I am fearful that the trend will continue this season making Michigan just as susceptible to the run as the past few years.
The secondary has more in common with burnt toast than it does with post-it notes. Unfortunately, that has been the case for a number of years now. That is why Michigan “recruitniks” invested so much hope in Michigan bringing in top in-state high school DB recruits Ronald Johnson and Dionte Allen. Johnson may still end up at UM but he won’t help this year. Marlin Jackson and Ernest Shazor came in with the same fanfare and their careers were plagued by inconsistent play and big-game letdowns. Much like everything else on defense, Michigan hasn’t had a great defensive backfield since 1997. I can all but guarantee it won’t have a great defensive backfield this season either. There just isn’t enough ability in the secondary for Michigan to be any more than mediocre at defending the pass. If this unit is going to have success, it’ll be because the defensive line is pressuring the quarterback consistently. Leon Hall is not a terrible corner. In fact, many people will actually go as far as saying he’s very good. I’m not buying Hall as anything more than a slightly above average corner. That’s fine if he is complimented by other slightly above average corners and safeties. Unfortunately, Michigan is stuck with a bunch of players that are unproven. Charles Stewart has the size necessary to match-up with big receivers but he hasn’t shown much. Brandon Harrison is fast but his 5’9 (in high heels) frame makes him a mismatch against most receivers. Ryan Mundy, Jamar Adams, Brandent Englemon, Willis Barringer and Morgan Trent are the other unheralded members of the secondary. Michigan will be tested in the air in 2006 which means things could get ugly yet again.
However, there is one caveat that may change the outlook for the Michigan defense. The most important unit on defense is, and always will be, the defensive line. A very good defensive line can wreck havoc on the running game and force the QB out of the pocket. If opposing QB’s are constantly under pressure and/or forced to abandon the pocket, the secondary is then able to play from a position of strength. Likewise, if the D-line can consistently gain leverage on the opposing O-line and tie up blockers, the linebackers will then be able to play from a position of strength. If the D-line doesn’t pressure the QB, players like Brady Quinn, Drew Tate, and Troy Smith will sit back and pick the Michigan secondary apart. If the D-line doesn’t control the line, Michigan’s inexperienced linebackers will continue to get brutalized. This season, success on defense starts and ends with the D-line. You will know after the first half of the opener against Vanderbilt whether or not things will change for the ’06 defense. If you don’t see Vandy’s QB running for his life, this will be another long season.
As I’ve mentioned quite a few times in the last month, this is by far the least talented group of teams at the top of the rankings in recent memory. Of the teams that make up the top ten in various pre-season polls, only West Virginia appears to be better than last year’s team. Notre Dame should be close to the same. Everyone else should be significantly worse than last year. Michigan, on the other hand, is definitely not worse. It’s a coin flip as to whether Michigan will be better this season or not but by simply remaining the same, Michigan has gained on the elite teams in college football. With three road games against three good teams and a home game against a top 15 team, Michigan has a tough schedule ahead. However, Michigan should be favored over Penn St. and Iowa. That means if Michigan can somehow sneak past the Fighting Irish in South Bend, Michigan will be favored in every game leading up to The Game. To look at the season as 12 games, one would have to view Michigan’s chances of success as minimal at best. However, going one game at a time, Michigan’s season hinges entirely on the Notre Dame game. A loss would push Michigan down the same old dreaded path. A win, however, would immediately thrust Michigan into the National Championship picture.
I can say with certainty that I will enjoy this season more than last. I still feel the exact same way as I did when I wrote Anatomy of a Michigan Loss. The only difference is that instead of being vastly overrated, Michigan enters the season slightly underrated which is infinitely more exciting from a fan’s perspective.
Here are a few Michigan previews by national media outlets:
2006 Michigan Football Preview by Fox Sports
2006 Michigan Football Preview by Wikipedia
2006 Michigan Football Preview by SI
2006 Michigan Football Preview by Yahoo!
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