I’d like to comment on Gerald Green’s barefoot dunk in hopefully less boring fashion than Dr. J. Dwight Howard was fantastic. He deserved to win. However, the most underrated dunk in the history of dunks was Green’s barefoot, between-the-legs dunk. I’m not sure I could even touch the net in bare feet. He pigeonholed himself by doing a "normal" between-the-legs dunk earlier in the competition but he was robbed of his proper due. Darryl Dawkins even knocked Green’s shoes off the judges table in a sign of disrespect for the dunk.
The best dunk of the night, IMO, was Howard’s dunk from behind the basket. That was truly unbelievable. I would love to know if other NBA players can do that dunk. The most entertaining dunk of the night easily goes to Green for his “Birthday Cake” dunk. He was also robbed of his proper due on that one because it could only be truly appreciated in slow motion. Darryl Dawkins gave him an “8.” Video replay should be afforded to the judges. Dunks have gotten so good that people can’t even tell how good the dunk was without the aid of video replay. Also, Dawkins needs to issue a public apology for being the worst judge in dunk history.
One last note: I enjoyed the showmanship of Howard’s “Superman” dunk but it wasn’t a dunk. Kenny Smith played into it nicely by suggesting that Howard throwing the ball through the hoop was just a testament to how high Howard jumped and was done purposefully. I replayed it a number of times and you can clearly see that Howard was too far away from the rim to complete the dunk so he threw it. It looked good live so he didn’t pay the price.
Anyhow, here are my three favorite dunks of the night…
#3 Gerald Green's "Barefoot, between-the-legs" Dunk (3:00 mark)
#2 Gerald Green's "Birthday Cake" Dunk
#1 Dwight Howard's "Behind the Backboard" Dunk (2:00 mark)
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Friday, February 15, 2008
Memo to Flip: Don't bench the bench in the playoffs
I’m sure the rest of the league has noticed that the Pistons have put together a 10-game winning streak but I’m not sure if people are noticing the manner in which they have done it. The starters are playing fewer minutes than ever thus they are more productive than ever thus the team is better than ever (sans 2004). Fewer starter minutes=better team? Who would’ve thought? Those of you who had little-to-no hope of Pistons glory for 2007-08 (like me) will no doubt be shocked by a totally unexpected development. The Pistons have the most important bench in the NBA. In fact, it is so good that it not only extends leads but has done the unthinkable: inspire the starters! Flip Saunders need to continue to play the bench in the same capacity throughout the playoffs to have a shot at the NBA Title. My concern is that Saunders might not be able to bring himself to do such a thing.
During the ten game-winning streak, the bench has averaged 95 minutes per game. That is close to 20 minutes more than what it was averaging before the streak. The bench has provided a number of important advantages that have allowed the team to gel and work at—what I believe to be—its optimum level. Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton have seen their shooting percentages sky-rocket to career-bests this season. There is every reason to think that is due to being more rested when they’re on the court or, put another way, firing up fewer shots when they’re fatigued.
This Pistons bench isn’t your average NBA bench. This bench speeds up the game offensively and defensively which contrasts the methodical style of the starters. Billups has nicknamed them the “Zoo Crew” because they are like caged Lions when they hit the floor. The bench wears out the opposition and does it while playing very good basketball. Over the ten-game winning streak, the bench has outscored the opposition by 115 points. With their bench in the game, the Pistons have extended leads by an average of 12 points per game. That is a luxury that few teams, if any, have in the NBA right now. Amazingly, the average age of the primary contributors off the bench is 22.6. That means two very important things and one not-so-good thing. 1). These guys have plenty of “legs” to burn. 2). They will surely develop into even better players. 3). And, of course, other teams will overpay for them in free agency.
Those of you who have watched the Pistons throughout the winning streak know that the starters have played at a more efficient level. They "drop the hammer" from the opening tip. They rarely look sloppy. There is no question that with fewer minutes, they aren’t as bored and, probably more importantly, are well rested. The massive increase in minutes for the bench has also had a little-noticed but possibly very important additional effect. The starters have been matched up with different combinations of bench players and it appears that they are inspired by playing with these new groups or configurations. I don’t think the importance of motivation or enthusiasm on this team can be properly underscored. Anything that gets the starters out of their comfort or boredom zone is crucial.
I’m reserved to the likely fact that Saunders will revert to form come playoff time by stapling Jason Maxiell, Rodney Stuckey, and Co. to the bench. I’m sure the words “youth” and “playoffs” make Saunders uncomfortable. However, I am imploring Saunders to reconsider. Anything short of sticking with what the Pistons are doing right now will result in another LeBron-style exit from the playoffs. This team can win a championship but it cannot do it without the bench playing big-time minutes. If he realizes this team plays at its optimum level when the bench is getting 90+ minutes a game, then look out come June.
During the ten game-winning streak, the bench has averaged 95 minutes per game. That is close to 20 minutes more than what it was averaging before the streak. The bench has provided a number of important advantages that have allowed the team to gel and work at—what I believe to be—its optimum level. Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton have seen their shooting percentages sky-rocket to career-bests this season. There is every reason to think that is due to being more rested when they’re on the court or, put another way, firing up fewer shots when they’re fatigued.
This Pistons bench isn’t your average NBA bench. This bench speeds up the game offensively and defensively which contrasts the methodical style of the starters. Billups has nicknamed them the “Zoo Crew” because they are like caged Lions when they hit the floor. The bench wears out the opposition and does it while playing very good basketball. Over the ten-game winning streak, the bench has outscored the opposition by 115 points. With their bench in the game, the Pistons have extended leads by an average of 12 points per game. That is a luxury that few teams, if any, have in the NBA right now. Amazingly, the average age of the primary contributors off the bench is 22.6. That means two very important things and one not-so-good thing. 1). These guys have plenty of “legs” to burn. 2). They will surely develop into even better players. 3). And, of course, other teams will overpay for them in free agency.
Those of you who have watched the Pistons throughout the winning streak know that the starters have played at a more efficient level. They "drop the hammer" from the opening tip. They rarely look sloppy. There is no question that with fewer minutes, they aren’t as bored and, probably more importantly, are well rested. The massive increase in minutes for the bench has also had a little-noticed but possibly very important additional effect. The starters have been matched up with different combinations of bench players and it appears that they are inspired by playing with these new groups or configurations. I don’t think the importance of motivation or enthusiasm on this team can be properly underscored. Anything that gets the starters out of their comfort or boredom zone is crucial.
I’m reserved to the likely fact that Saunders will revert to form come playoff time by stapling Jason Maxiell, Rodney Stuckey, and Co. to the bench. I’m sure the words “youth” and “playoffs” make Saunders uncomfortable. However, I am imploring Saunders to reconsider. Anything short of sticking with what the Pistons are doing right now will result in another LeBron-style exit from the playoffs. This team can win a championship but it cannot do it without the bench playing big-time minutes. If he realizes this team plays at its optimum level when the bench is getting 90+ minutes a game, then look out come June.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Projections more confident than Kanye West
I would like to invoke the transitive property to prove Michigan’s dominance over Michigan St. in basketball. The Wolverines got off to a brutal start this season while Michigan St. has been spectacular sans a couple in-conference meltdowns. However, everyone who follows basketball knows that Penn St. is the barometer in college basketball. Since Michigan beat Penn St. on Saturday, and Penn St. beat Michigan St. last Saturday, it can be said—without a shadow of a doubt—that Michigan currently sports the superior basketball program. I realize there will be more than a few totally biased Spartans out there who will argue that Michigan St. beat Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio St., and Purdue while Michigan lost to all four giving Michigan St. the advantage in transitive property superiority, 4-1. Some may even choose to cite Michigan St.'s head-to-head victory. While I applaud their fandom, those reasons ring hollow. Everyone knows that you’re judged on what you have done most recently—and what you’ve done against Penn St. The pendulum has swung in Michigan’s favor. And all I can say is, “Eat it, Sparty!”
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC UNLV
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Siena
18 Big Sky Portland St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot American
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Arkansas
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large St. Joe's
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Maryland
Out: NC State
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). Oklahoma
I wanted to take Oklahoma out of the field this week but, since there’s no bubble, I had no team to take its place. I briefly considered Michigan but its 169 RPI poses a problem. Losing to Colorado was a huge blow to OU’s chances at securing an at-large bid. Another slip-up like that and it's NIT-time. The Sooners have wins over Arkansas, West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Baylor and a mid-40s RPI. Oregon sports a similar resume but Oklahoma has a fairly manageable schedule remaining. If OU doesn’t go 2-0 this week, then "no matter what occurs! I will find you. No matter how long it takes, no matter how far, I will find..." a replacement.
2). Mississippi St.
Mississippi St. can all but clinch an at-large bid with a win at home against Arkansas on Saturday. A loss wouldn’t be a deal-breaker but it would almost guarantee a nervous Selection Sunday. The Bulldogs don’t have a great resume but a win over Arkansas would almost certainly mean a minimum of a 10-6 conference record. That has historically been good enough for a bid with few exceptions.
3). Syracuse
If Syracuse loses to S. Florida this week, then it’s over. A win still leaves the Orange with less than a 50% chance of making the tournament. Contrast Syracuse’s remaining Big East schedule to Seton Hall’s and you have to wonder if Ramon Ramos is making the schedules. The good news is that the Orange can always choose to play the, “struggle mightily in the regular season only to improbably win the Big East conference tournament by beating four teams in the RPI 40 in four days” card.
4). Maryland
I should’ve known that Gary Williams would eventually get Maryland into that “fourth team in the ACC” spot. I feel like a fool for not realizing this sooner. I had my reasons to doubt, though. Maryland started the season 6-6 with losses at home to American (shouldn’t a school with a name like that get more attention?), and Ohio. Maryland’s resume is still pretty questionable but a 6-3 record in the ACC is a guarantee for the tourney. A few unexpected losses could change things but Maryland could probably finish 3-4 over its last seven and still make the tourney.
5). West Virginia
This is a team that has looked like a solid bet for an at-large bid all season. For that to remain true and avoid another Rich Rodriguez-style rude-awakening, WVU will have to go 5-3 in its last eight conference games. The schedule isn’t too daunting but I can't say I'd be surprised if WVU flamed out.
First five “out” (no particular order)
1). Seton Hall
2). Houston
Houston will be in this section for the remainder of the season unless it can win @ Memphis this week or get the editor of the August 26, 1991 edition of Sports Illustrated on the Selection Committee. I'm skeptical that either is going to happen. So, Houston will have to sweat out Selection Sunday with a 14-2 conference record and an RPI in the 40s. Houston’s best win on the season is against Kentucky. That’s starting to look a bit better but no wins inside the RPI 80 is a deal-breaker.
3). NC State
If the Wolfpack lose @ Boston College on Thursday, then you will probably never see its name in this space again unless. A decent RPI and a near .500 record in the ACC is the only reason I’m still writing about these guys. NC State has no wins in the RPI 40. It lost to New Orleans and East Carolina which is atrocious to have on a resume.
4). VCU
If VCU plays George Mason in the Colonial Conference Championship Game, I think there is a good chance that both will get in. VCU has wins over Maryland and Houston and will likely sport a 16-2 conference record. VCU will need to beat Akron in its Bracket Buster game. If it does all that, it’ll have a 21-5 record and an RPI in the 40s. That should get it done.
5). Kentucky
If Kentucky can win five of its final eight SEC games, it’ll finish with at least an 11-5 conference record. I’m pretty sure that there has never been a major-conference team left out of the tourney with 11 conference wins since the tourney expanded to 64 teams. Plus, the Selection Committee values how teams are playing at the end of the season. Kentucky has won five in a row including a victory over the #1 team in the RPI (Tennessee). I don’t think many people would’ve believed this three weeks ago but Kentucky controls its own destination for a tourney bid despite an 89 RPI.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Duke
North Carolina
Memphis
Kansas
#2 Seeds
Tennessee
UCLA
Georgetown
Connecticut
#3 Seeds
Michigan St.
Texas
Xavier
Stanford
#4 Seeds
Drake
Butler
Pittsburgh
Louisville
#5 Seeds
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Purdue
St. Mary’s
#6 Seeds
Vanderbilt
Kansas St.
Indiana
Texas A&M
#7 Seeds
Washington St.
Rhode Island
Arizona
Arkansas
#8 Seeds
Clemson
Baylor
Marquette
Dayton
Just outside the top 8-seeds: Mississippi, USC, Gonzaga, Florida, and Massachusetts
Big Games this Week
Monday
Kansas @ Texas
Utah St. @ Nevada
Tuesday
Michigan St. @ Purdue
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Marquette @ Seton Hall
Wednesday
Maryland @ Duke
Wisconsin @ Indiana
Notre Dame @ Connecticut
Houston @ Memphis
Arkansas @ Tennessee
Thursday
None
Friday
Pittsburgh @ Marquette
Saturday
Clemson @ NC State
Michigan St. @ Indiana
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Texas @ Baylor
Georgetown @ Syracuse
Ohio @ Kent St.
UNLV @ BYU
Stanford @ Arizona
UCLA @ USC
Washington St. @ Oregon
Arkansas @ Mississippi St.
Florida @ Vanderbilt
Sunday
Seton Hall @ West Virginia
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC UNLV
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Kent St.
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Siena
18 Big Sky Portland St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot American
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Maryland
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Arkansas
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large St. Joe's
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Maryland
Out: NC State
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). Oklahoma
I wanted to take Oklahoma out of the field this week but, since there’s no bubble, I had no team to take its place. I briefly considered Michigan but its 169 RPI poses a problem. Losing to Colorado was a huge blow to OU’s chances at securing an at-large bid. Another slip-up like that and it's NIT-time. The Sooners have wins over Arkansas, West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Baylor and a mid-40s RPI. Oregon sports a similar resume but Oklahoma has a fairly manageable schedule remaining. If OU doesn’t go 2-0 this week, then "no matter what occurs! I will find you. No matter how long it takes, no matter how far, I will find..." a replacement.
2). Mississippi St.
Mississippi St. can all but clinch an at-large bid with a win at home against Arkansas on Saturday. A loss wouldn’t be a deal-breaker but it would almost guarantee a nervous Selection Sunday. The Bulldogs don’t have a great resume but a win over Arkansas would almost certainly mean a minimum of a 10-6 conference record. That has historically been good enough for a bid with few exceptions.
3). Syracuse
If Syracuse loses to S. Florida this week, then it’s over. A win still leaves the Orange with less than a 50% chance of making the tournament. Contrast Syracuse’s remaining Big East schedule to Seton Hall’s and you have to wonder if Ramon Ramos is making the schedules. The good news is that the Orange can always choose to play the, “struggle mightily in the regular season only to improbably win the Big East conference tournament by beating four teams in the RPI 40 in four days” card.
4). Maryland
I should’ve known that Gary Williams would eventually get Maryland into that “fourth team in the ACC” spot. I feel like a fool for not realizing this sooner. I had my reasons to doubt, though. Maryland started the season 6-6 with losses at home to American (shouldn’t a school with a name like that get more attention?), and Ohio. Maryland’s resume is still pretty questionable but a 6-3 record in the ACC is a guarantee for the tourney. A few unexpected losses could change things but Maryland could probably finish 3-4 over its last seven and still make the tourney.
5). West Virginia
This is a team that has looked like a solid bet for an at-large bid all season. For that to remain true and avoid another Rich Rodriguez-style rude-awakening, WVU will have to go 5-3 in its last eight conference games. The schedule isn’t too daunting but I can't say I'd be surprised if WVU flamed out.
First five “out” (no particular order)
1). Seton Hall
For the third consecutive week, Seton Hall is in this position. The Pirates have lost three in a row. Their RPI is 60. They’re under .500 in the Big East. Few things seem to be going right. However, remember the last few weeks when I mentioned that Seton Hall has the easiest conference schedule to close out the season? Well, that’s about to come into play. Seton Hall has to split its next two games at home against Marquette and @ West Virginia. After that, it’s RPIs of 136, 160, 123, and 198 with a home game against Syracuse in there. Seton Hall has a pretty good shot at 10-8 in the Big East. That would likely be good enough for a tourney-bid. Lose the next two, though, and they’re toast.
2). Houston
Houston will be in this section for the remainder of the season unless it can win @ Memphis this week or get the editor of the August 26, 1991 edition of Sports Illustrated on the Selection Committee. I'm skeptical that either is going to happen. So, Houston will have to sweat out Selection Sunday with a 14-2 conference record and an RPI in the 40s. Houston’s best win on the season is against Kentucky. That’s starting to look a bit better but no wins inside the RPI 80 is a deal-breaker.
3). NC State
If the Wolfpack lose @ Boston College on Thursday, then you will probably never see its name in this space again unless. A decent RPI and a near .500 record in the ACC is the only reason I’m still writing about these guys. NC State has no wins in the RPI 40. It lost to New Orleans and East Carolina which is atrocious to have on a resume.
4). VCU
If VCU plays George Mason in the Colonial Conference Championship Game, I think there is a good chance that both will get in. VCU has wins over Maryland and Houston and will likely sport a 16-2 conference record. VCU will need to beat Akron in its Bracket Buster game. If it does all that, it’ll have a 21-5 record and an RPI in the 40s. That should get it done.
5). Kentucky
If Kentucky can win five of its final eight SEC games, it’ll finish with at least an 11-5 conference record. I’m pretty sure that there has never been a major-conference team left out of the tourney with 11 conference wins since the tourney expanded to 64 teams. Plus, the Selection Committee values how teams are playing at the end of the season. Kentucky has won five in a row including a victory over the #1 team in the RPI (Tennessee). I don’t think many people would’ve believed this three weeks ago but Kentucky controls its own destination for a tourney bid despite an 89 RPI.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Duke
North Carolina
Memphis
Kansas
#2 Seeds
Tennessee
UCLA
Georgetown
Connecticut
#3 Seeds
Michigan St.
Texas
Xavier
Stanford
#4 Seeds
Drake
Butler
Pittsburgh
Louisville
#5 Seeds
Notre Dame
Wisconsin
Purdue
St. Mary’s
#6 Seeds
Vanderbilt
Kansas St.
Indiana
Texas A&M
#7 Seeds
Washington St.
Rhode Island
Arizona
Arkansas
#8 Seeds
Clemson
Baylor
Marquette
Dayton
Just outside the top 8-seeds: Mississippi, USC, Gonzaga, Florida, and Massachusetts
Big Games this Week
Monday
Kansas @ Texas
Utah St. @ Nevada
Tuesday
Michigan St. @ Purdue
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt
Marquette @ Seton Hall
Wednesday
Maryland @ Duke
Wisconsin @ Indiana
Notre Dame @ Connecticut
Houston @ Memphis
Arkansas @ Tennessee
Thursday
None
Friday
Pittsburgh @ Marquette
Saturday
Clemson @ NC State
Michigan St. @ Indiana
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Texas @ Baylor
Georgetown @ Syracuse
Ohio @ Kent St.
UNLV @ BYU
Stanford @ Arizona
UCLA @ USC
Washington St. @ Oregon
Arkansas @ Mississippi St.
Florida @ Vanderbilt
Sunday
Seton Hall @ West Virginia
Thursday, February 07, 2008
Dude can recruit!
Apparently, Rich Rodriguez can recruit. When Rodriguez left West Virginia for Michigan it became chic for everyone who wanted him to fail—bitter fans of WVU or nervous rivals, no doubt—to attack Rodriguez's recruiting prowess at West Virginia. Every coach at West Virginia should be able to out-recruit Michigan and Ohio St, right? This group must also be convinced that Pete Carroll could pull in the nation’s #1 recruiting class at Louisiana-Lafayette. Anyone with an IQ above 80—and most below—knows that this line of reasoning is idiotic. Now, there’s proof of the idiocy. In just a few short weeks, Rodriguez actually improved Michigan’s standing in various recruiting rankings from where it was when he took over. That wasn’t any easy chore, either, considering Lloyd Carr had already put together the makings of a formidable class. Michigan finished with the #10 recruiting-class according to Rivals. Only two schools in the country signed more 4 and 5-star recruits (Note: Michigan didn't sign any 5-star recruits but landed a whopping 17 4-star recruits. Those of you annoyed that Michigan is the only program in the Rivals top ten that didn't sign a 5-star recruit, no worries. Michigan already has a 5-star commited for next year's class.) More impressive is that Rodriguez was able to significantly bolster the class without Terrelle Pryor whose decision is scheduled to be made 10 minutes after never. Rodriguez didn’t need a mega-recruit to turn this class into a raging success as everyone and their brother had suggested.
There is no question that Rodriguez was brought to Michigan to catch up to Ohio St. Everything Jim Tressel said at halftime of the infamous Ohio St. basketball game seven years ago also applies to Rodriguez even if he didn’t actually say it. Bringing Michigan’s scheme and conditioning program into the 21st century is just one step in making that happen. The other is recruiting which almost always begins with battling Ohio St. for Ohio-recruits. Michigan didn’t land a single recruit from Ohio in 2007. The state of Ohio has one of the richest crops of high school football talent in the country in any given year (Ohio had at least 50 3-star or better recruits in the state this year. Michigan had 23). Getting shutout in Ohio is a disaster any way you put it. Although there are a number of impressive facts about Michigan’s Pryor-less recruiting class, the most impressive, in my opinion, is the way Rodriguez was able to attack the state of Ohio in just a few weeks. All told, Michigan signed seven players from Ohio. Carr had reeled in three before he retired and Rodriguez added four more. Of the top 17 players in Ohio, Michigan signed six. Ohio St. signed five. Last year, Ohio St. signed eight and Michigan signed zero. That is a huge one-year turnaround. Remember, the Ohio-recruiting scene isn’t anything like Michigan’s. It might sound impressive for Michigan St. to boast that it signed 11 of the top 26 recruits in the state of Michigan while Michigan only signed five. The difference is that Michigan doesn’t recruit players outside of the top ten in its own state. Michigan St. can pretty much have anyone it wants at that point. Ohio St. recruits players even outside of the top 50 in the state of Ohio. For Michigan to come in and grab seven Ohio players—six of the top 17—is a huge momentum-changer in Michigan’s efforts to recruit Ohio.
Rodriguez’s intention to sign a full 27-man class meant he had 8-10 scholarships to fill. Instead of haphazardly handing out scholarships to the same caliber player that he recruited at West Virginia or this guy, he took his time to target upper-echelon players and scored with a number of highly-touted recruits. Rodriguez—in the same way Luke Skywalker quickly picked up on the power of “The Force”—has quickly picked up on the far-reaching power of the block “M.” At West Virginia, Rodriguez didn’t even sniff the type of recruits he’ll attract at Michigan. And, it seems like he has already figured that out. He added five 4-star players and two late-bloomers who are expected to make major contributions at Michigan. Of the seven recruits Rodriguez has landed thus far, all are from Ohio, Florida, or Texas. Michigan only landed three players from those states last season. Rodriguez more than doubled that in one month’s work. In fact, Michigan hadn’t had more than five players from those states in any recruiting class since at least 2002 (Rivals only lists archives since 2002). Michigan has built its program over the last few decades by recruiting nationally. There were concerns that Rodriguez may not be able to recruit on a national-scale in the same way Carr was able to. Rodriguez’s early success should quash such speculation. More importantly, Rodriguez’s successful ventures into those states on such short notice may be a sign that Michigan is headed for even better recruiting classes than Michigan had been accustomed to under Carr.
I am not a big fan of de-commitments for a slew of reasons. A recruit should not declare his commitment unless he is willing to follow through on it. I understand that teenagers are fickle but that doesn’t mean it’s OK to lie. Clearly, this opens the door for the inevitable, “coaches lie too” spiel. That’s a different argument all together. When coaches leave, recruits should be allowed to transfer or de-commit without penalty. For everyone else, an “official” verbal commitment should be as binding as a written commitment. Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, Michigan must lead the nation in de-commitment margin over the last few years. Sure, other schools lose de-commitments but they also get some as well. Michigan seemingly only loses them. That was until Rodriguez took over. In a total reversal of Michigan’s recent fortune, Rodriguez landed three de-commitments (one each from Penn St., Florida, and Purdue) on signing day alone. At the risk of making too much out of one recruiting class, it seemed as though recruits under Lloyd Carr who were otherwise interested in Michigan sought out reasons not to go to Michigan. It seems like the opposite is true under Rodriguez. Recruits who otherwise weren’t as interested in Michigan are seeking out reasons to come to Michigan. As good of a recruiter as Carr was, it seemed like big-time recruits were drawn to other big schools with more dynamic coaching staffs and schemes. Carr’s personality and Michigan’s tradition was always enough to build a solid recruiting class. Now that Michigan can boast a dynamic coaching staff and a state-of-the-art scheme, I think Michigan will be able to tap into a caliber of player that previously ignored Michigan’s not-so-flashy program.
Michigan has underachieved in the past because of coaching. Rodriguez was going to change that regardless of the level of talent. He proved at West Virginia that he didn’t even need Michigan St.’s talent level to build a powerhouse. Now that I’ve seen what Rodriguez can do on the recruiting-front, I’m more excited about Michigan football than I have ever been. I’m even considering giving up electricity for season-tickets. Electricity is in the lead right now but season-tickets are gaining-ground fast. If you don’t see a post from me by next week some time, then you’ll know my decision. Anyways, I believe Michigan football is about to embark on a trip to its apex. For all the success Michigan has had post-Bo—and maybe even during Bo—I’m not sure that it ever reached its potential. With each passing day, there is more evidence to suggest that is going to change. To recap, Rodriguez appears to be a kick-ass recruiter.
There is no question that Rodriguez was brought to Michigan to catch up to Ohio St. Everything Jim Tressel said at halftime of the infamous Ohio St. basketball game seven years ago also applies to Rodriguez even if he didn’t actually say it. Bringing Michigan’s scheme and conditioning program into the 21st century is just one step in making that happen. The other is recruiting which almost always begins with battling Ohio St. for Ohio-recruits. Michigan didn’t land a single recruit from Ohio in 2007. The state of Ohio has one of the richest crops of high school football talent in the country in any given year (Ohio had at least 50 3-star or better recruits in the state this year. Michigan had 23). Getting shutout in Ohio is a disaster any way you put it. Although there are a number of impressive facts about Michigan’s Pryor-less recruiting class, the most impressive, in my opinion, is the way Rodriguez was able to attack the state of Ohio in just a few weeks. All told, Michigan signed seven players from Ohio. Carr had reeled in three before he retired and Rodriguez added four more. Of the top 17 players in Ohio, Michigan signed six. Ohio St. signed five. Last year, Ohio St. signed eight and Michigan signed zero. That is a huge one-year turnaround. Remember, the Ohio-recruiting scene isn’t anything like Michigan’s. It might sound impressive for Michigan St. to boast that it signed 11 of the top 26 recruits in the state of Michigan while Michigan only signed five. The difference is that Michigan doesn’t recruit players outside of the top ten in its own state. Michigan St. can pretty much have anyone it wants at that point. Ohio St. recruits players even outside of the top 50 in the state of Ohio. For Michigan to come in and grab seven Ohio players—six of the top 17—is a huge momentum-changer in Michigan’s efforts to recruit Ohio.
Rodriguez’s intention to sign a full 27-man class meant he had 8-10 scholarships to fill. Instead of haphazardly handing out scholarships to the same caliber player that he recruited at West Virginia or this guy, he took his time to target upper-echelon players and scored with a number of highly-touted recruits. Rodriguez—in the same way Luke Skywalker quickly picked up on the power of “The Force”—has quickly picked up on the far-reaching power of the block “M.” At West Virginia, Rodriguez didn’t even sniff the type of recruits he’ll attract at Michigan. And, it seems like he has already figured that out. He added five 4-star players and two late-bloomers who are expected to make major contributions at Michigan. Of the seven recruits Rodriguez has landed thus far, all are from Ohio, Florida, or Texas. Michigan only landed three players from those states last season. Rodriguez more than doubled that in one month’s work. In fact, Michigan hadn’t had more than five players from those states in any recruiting class since at least 2002 (Rivals only lists archives since 2002). Michigan has built its program over the last few decades by recruiting nationally. There were concerns that Rodriguez may not be able to recruit on a national-scale in the same way Carr was able to. Rodriguez’s early success should quash such speculation. More importantly, Rodriguez’s successful ventures into those states on such short notice may be a sign that Michigan is headed for even better recruiting classes than Michigan had been accustomed to under Carr.
I am not a big fan of de-commitments for a slew of reasons. A recruit should not declare his commitment unless he is willing to follow through on it. I understand that teenagers are fickle but that doesn’t mean it’s OK to lie. Clearly, this opens the door for the inevitable, “coaches lie too” spiel. That’s a different argument all together. When coaches leave, recruits should be allowed to transfer or de-commit without penalty. For everyone else, an “official” verbal commitment should be as binding as a written commitment. Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, Michigan must lead the nation in de-commitment margin over the last few years. Sure, other schools lose de-commitments but they also get some as well. Michigan seemingly only loses them. That was until Rodriguez took over. In a total reversal of Michigan’s recent fortune, Rodriguez landed three de-commitments (one each from Penn St., Florida, and Purdue) on signing day alone. At the risk of making too much out of one recruiting class, it seemed as though recruits under Lloyd Carr who were otherwise interested in Michigan sought out reasons not to go to Michigan. It seems like the opposite is true under Rodriguez. Recruits who otherwise weren’t as interested in Michigan are seeking out reasons to come to Michigan. As good of a recruiter as Carr was, it seemed like big-time recruits were drawn to other big schools with more dynamic coaching staffs and schemes. Carr’s personality and Michigan’s tradition was always enough to build a solid recruiting class. Now that Michigan can boast a dynamic coaching staff and a state-of-the-art scheme, I think Michigan will be able to tap into a caliber of player that previously ignored Michigan’s not-so-flashy program.
Michigan has underachieved in the past because of coaching. Rodriguez was going to change that regardless of the level of talent. He proved at West Virginia that he didn’t even need Michigan St.’s talent level to build a powerhouse. Now that I’ve seen what Rodriguez can do on the recruiting-front, I’m more excited about Michigan football than I have ever been. I’m even considering giving up electricity for season-tickets. Electricity is in the lead right now but season-tickets are gaining-ground fast. If you don’t see a post from me by next week some time, then you’ll know my decision. Anyways, I believe Michigan football is about to embark on a trip to its apex. For all the success Michigan has had post-Bo—and maybe even during Bo—I’m not sure that it ever reached its potential. With each passing day, there is more evidence to suggest that is going to change. To recap, Rodriguez appears to be a kick-ass recruiter.
Monday, February 04, 2008
NCAA Tournament Projections have nothing on the NY Giants
Where is the Bubble?
Five weeks remain until Selection Sunday and there doesn’t seem to be any sign of “the bubble.” If you take a look at the major conferences, you’ll find there is an obvious distinction between tournament-teams and everyone else. The only conference immune to this phenomenon is the ACC. However, the only reason the ACC has its own bubble is because the #1 conference in America has to have more than four teams make the tournament. I think it's law or something. So, teams like Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Maryland, and Virginia Tech get the “bubble treatment” even with less-than-stellar resumes. Their equivalents in other conferences—Oregon and Arizona St. in the Pac-10, Seton Hall and Villanova in the Big East, Texas Tech and Missouri in the Big XII, and Minnesota in the Big Ten are obvious omissions at this point. So, we’re left with an empty or—more appropriately—a non-existent bubble. Although, Syracuse may disagree. When you enter "NCAA Bubble" into Wikipedia's search engine, "Syracuse Orange men's basketball" is the only result with 100% relavence. That's no joke.
Here is a look at the giant-sized separation between the top-half and bottom-half of each conference:
Big East
The cutoff in the Big East clearly occurs after Syracuse and West Virginia. Seton Hall could work its way into a bubble-type position if it can take advantage of its fortuitous remaining schedule. However, every Big East-team after West Virginia is clearly out of the tournament at this point.
Pac 10
UCLA, Arizona, Washington St., USC, and Stanford are all easily in the tournament. The rest of the Pac 10 is clearly out of the tournament. Oregon and Arizona St. could get on a roll and change things but they are nowhere near the field right now.
Big Ten
The cutoff in the Big Ten is clearly between Ohio St. and Minnesota. Michigan St., Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Ohio St. are all in at this point. All other teams are hopeless.
SEC
There are teams in the SEC that can work their way out of the field like Mississippi St., Mississippi, and Arkansas. However, the cutoff in the SEC is obvious as well. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi St., and Florida are all in at this point. Nobody else even has a prayer.
Big XII
The Big XII is no different. Kansas, Kansas St., Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Baylor are all clearly in. No other team even has a chance.
ACC
As I mentioned before, the ACC has a “forced” bubble. Logic would suggest that a conference as highly-rated as the ACC would get more than four teams into the field. So, marginal teams that may not otherwise garner a look get a bump by playing in the ACC. Still, the separation in the ACC between the tourney teams and non-tourney teams appears to occur after Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, and NC State.
A-10
The same can be said for the A-10. Xavier, Dayton, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and St. Joe’s are clearly in the field at this point while no other team even has a chance.
Normally, this sort of thing would mean the bubble is saturated with mid-majors. However, just like in the major conferences, there is an obvious distinction between the tournament-bound mid-majors and everyone else. BYU and Gonzaga appear to be tournament-bound. The argument could be made that VCU, Kent St., Illinois St. and Houston are legitimate bubble teams because they sport decent resumes and would be the second teams out of their respective conferences. I'm not buying that argument at this point but it could be made nonetheless. The rest of the above-average mid-majors (Ohio, Creighton, Western Kentucky, San Diego St., Wright St., and New Mexico,) have resumes that stink like Matthew McConaughey. So, we’re left without a bubble which makes it significantly easier to project the field. Not having a bubble also makes people say dumb things in an attempt to create a bubble. The Big Ten Network's studio panel and its love for Iowa—11-12 record and 138 RPI and all—is an example of this.
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large NC State
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Arkansas
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large St. Joe's
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Arkansas and Syracuse
Out: Miami FL and Kent St.
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). Mississippi St.
Five weeks remain until Selection Sunday and there doesn’t seem to be any sign of “the bubble.” If you take a look at the major conferences, you’ll find there is an obvious distinction between tournament-teams and everyone else. The only conference immune to this phenomenon is the ACC. However, the only reason the ACC has its own bubble is because the #1 conference in America has to have more than four teams make the tournament. I think it's law or something. So, teams like Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Maryland, and Virginia Tech get the “bubble treatment” even with less-than-stellar resumes. Their equivalents in other conferences—Oregon and Arizona St. in the Pac-10, Seton Hall and Villanova in the Big East, Texas Tech and Missouri in the Big XII, and Minnesota in the Big Ten are obvious omissions at this point. So, we’re left with an empty or—more appropriately—a non-existent bubble. Although, Syracuse may disagree. When you enter "NCAA Bubble" into Wikipedia's search engine, "Syracuse Orange men's basketball" is the only result with 100% relavence. That's no joke.
Here is a look at the giant-sized separation between the top-half and bottom-half of each conference:
Big East
The cutoff in the Big East clearly occurs after Syracuse and West Virginia. Seton Hall could work its way into a bubble-type position if it can take advantage of its fortuitous remaining schedule. However, every Big East-team after West Virginia is clearly out of the tournament at this point.
Pac 10
UCLA, Arizona, Washington St., USC, and Stanford are all easily in the tournament. The rest of the Pac 10 is clearly out of the tournament. Oregon and Arizona St. could get on a roll and change things but they are nowhere near the field right now.
Big Ten
The cutoff in the Big Ten is clearly between Ohio St. and Minnesota. Michigan St., Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Ohio St. are all in at this point. All other teams are hopeless.
SEC
There are teams in the SEC that can work their way out of the field like Mississippi St., Mississippi, and Arkansas. However, the cutoff in the SEC is obvious as well. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi St., and Florida are all in at this point. Nobody else even has a prayer.
Big XII
The Big XII is no different. Kansas, Kansas St., Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Baylor are all clearly in. No other team even has a chance.
ACC
As I mentioned before, the ACC has a “forced” bubble. Logic would suggest that a conference as highly-rated as the ACC would get more than four teams into the field. So, marginal teams that may not otherwise garner a look get a bump by playing in the ACC. Still, the separation in the ACC between the tourney teams and non-tourney teams appears to occur after Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, and NC State.
A-10
The same can be said for the A-10. Xavier, Dayton, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and St. Joe’s are clearly in the field at this point while no other team even has a chance.
Normally, this sort of thing would mean the bubble is saturated with mid-majors. However, just like in the major conferences, there is an obvious distinction between the tournament-bound mid-majors and everyone else. BYU and Gonzaga appear to be tournament-bound. The argument could be made that VCU, Kent St., Illinois St. and Houston are legitimate bubble teams because they sport decent resumes and would be the second teams out of their respective conferences. I'm not buying that argument at this point but it could be made nonetheless. The rest of the above-average mid-majors (Ohio, Creighton, Western Kentucky, San Diego St., Wright St., and New Mexico,) have resumes that stink like Matthew McConaughey. So, we’re left without a bubble which makes it significantly easier to project the field. Not having a bubble also makes people say dumb things in an attempt to create a bubble. The Big Ten Network's studio panel and its love for Iowa—11-12 record and 138 RPI and all—is an example of this.
Projections
Here is how I view the field right now (at-large bids are sorted by conference):
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Tennessee
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Michigan St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC Drake
8 MWC BYU
9 WAC Utah St.
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial George Mason
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC St. Mary’s
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt S. Alabama
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky N. Arizona
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Cal St. Northridge
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Cornell
23 Southern Davidson
24 Patriot Lafayette
25 Southland Sam Houston St.
26 Northeast Wagner
27 AEC MD Baltimore County
28 Big South NC Asheville
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Alabama St.
31 MEAC Hampton
32 At-Large Gonzaga
33 At-Large Duke
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large NC State
36 At-Large Syracuse
37 At-Large Marquette
38 At-Large Pittsburgh
39 At-Large West Virginia
40 At-Large Notre Dame
41 At-Large Connecticut
42 At-Large Louisville
43 At-Large USC
44 At-Large Stanford
45 At-Large Arizona
46 At-Large Washington St.
47 At-Large Baylor
48 At-Large Oklahoma
49 At-Large Kansas St.
50 At-Large Texas A&M
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Purdue
53 At-Large Ohio St.
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Mississippi St.
57 At-Large Vanderbilt
58 At-Large Mississippi
59 At-Large Florida
60 At-Large Arkansas
61 At-Large Dayton
62 At-Large Massachusetts
63 At-Large Rhode Island
64 At-Large St. Joe's
65 At-Large BYU
Changes from last week:
In: Arkansas and Syracuse
Out: Miami FL and Kent St.
*I don't look at other projections—Lunardi's included—at any point in the season. Everything I do is based on researching each team's resume. My projections are based on who I think will be there based on the results of games played and the difficulty of remaining schedules. This isn’t a “if the season ended today”-deal.
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be anywhere from 5-10 teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.
Last five “in” (no particular order)
1). Mississippi St.
Mississippi St. has the worst RPI of any at-large team that I have projected into the tournament. The Bulldogs have one win in the RPI 80. In fact, there is only one thing keeping MSU in the field at this point and that’s the fact that it leads the SEC West with a 5-2 record. Mississippi St. has five games remaining against teams with an RPI worse than 90. If it wins all five of those games, it’ll finish with no worse than a 10-6 conference record. The home game against Arkansas on February 16 will be the biggest game of the season. If MSU wins that game, it’ll all but wrap up an at-large bid. Otherwise, it could be looking at a 10-6 conference record with one victory over a team in the RPI 80 for the season. That could be a problem.
2). Massachusetts
Resume
UMASS entered conference play with a pristine resume. Things have gotten ugly since then. A 3-4 start in conference was capped by a disastrous loss to St. Louis over the weekend (yes, the same St. Louis that scored 20 points against GW). Still, UMASS sports an RPI of 25 and quality wins against Dayton, Boston College, Houston and @ Syracuse. The conference slate eases up a bit as six of the next nine games are against teams with an RPI worse than 100.
3). NC State
NC State has the best chance of being the fourth team out of the ACC but I don’t think it’s anywhere near a likelihood of 50%. Va. Tech, Wake Forest, Miami (FL), Maryland, and NC State are going to have a round-robin elimination-style tournament over the next five weeks. I’m actually looking forward to it because the winner really could be any of the five. NC State gets the nod for now because it has the best resume of the bunch and the best RPI.
4). Syracuse
Pomeroy still predicts a .500 record for the Orangemen. I’m inclined to agree. The remaining slate is brutal with seven of its final eight games against teams with an RPI of 45 or better. The good news for Syracuse is that 4-4 in those eight games would get it done.
5). Arkansas
Arkansas bounced back nicely from its damaging back to back losses to S. Carolina and Georgia with a three-game winning streak. Winning the next three won’t be as easy. Arkansas has Mississippi, Tennessee, and Mississippi St. over the next seven days. Winning all three would make Arkansas a lock for the tourney. Losing all three would probably be a deal-breaker. Anything in between keeps Arkansas safely in the field.
First five “out” (no particular order)
1). Seton Hall
Resume
The Pirates are the only team in the Big East whose fate seems up in the air. They sport a 5-4 conference record but have only one win over the RPI 60. They have one of the easiest remaining conference schedules with four games against teams with an RPI of 126 or worse. However, the next four are against Notre Dame, Villanova, Marquette, and West Virgina. A split might get Seton Hall into the field.
2). Houston
Resume
I’m uncertain as to whether a 14-2 conference record would get Houston into the field. Conference-USA used to get multiple-bids every year but that was before Marquette, Cincinnati, DePaul, and Louisville jettisoned for the Big East. Houston would have a 25-5 record and an RPI around the 50s. An upset at Memphis on February 13 would seal the deal. Short of that, I think Houston is SOL.
3). VCU
I’m equally uncertain as to whether a 16-2 conference record would get VCU into the tournament. VCU has wins over Houston, Maryland, and Bradley and that’s about it. VCU doesn’t play a team with an RPI better than 100 for the rest of the season. So, I doubt it’ll be able to do much resume-building. Still, the Colonial has built a decent reputation over the last couple years. VCU has to feel a little better off than Houston with its head to head victory.
4). Kent St.
I’m going to predict that Kent St. will receive an at-large bid if it makes it to the MAC Championship game. The Golden Flashes have a number of quality wins against mid-majors including Cleveland St., Illinois St., and George Mason. I had them in the tournament last week but a loss at Toledo—a team as bad as Tom Smykowski’s “Jump to Conclusions” mat—was a killer.
5). Va. Tech
I can’t totally ignore a team from the ACC with an above .500 conference record. Va. Tech probably has the easiest remaining ACC schedule of the “bubble” teams. The Hokies don’t play Duke again and play North Carolina only once more. I think the parity in the ACC will be too much to overcome. Still, a 9-7 record would almost guarantee a bid.
Top Seeds
#1 Seeds
Memphis
North Carolina
Duke
Kansas
#2 Seeds
UCLA
Tennessee
Georgetown
Michigan St.
Big Games this Week
Monday
Villanova @ St. Joe’s
Louisville @ Marquette
Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s
Tuesday
Va. Tech @ NC State
Drake @ Illinois St.
Florida @ Tennessee
Wednesday
Duke @ North Carolina
Texas @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech @ Baylor
Connecticut @ Syracuse
Notre Dame @ Seton Hall
Thursday
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh
Oregon @ Stanford
UCLA @ Washington St.
Friday
None
Saturday
Miami (FL) @ Va. Tech
NC State @ Maryland
Purdue @ Wisconsin
Baylor @ Kansas
Georgetown @ Louisville
Marquette @ Notre Dame
Seton Hall @ Villanova
USC @ Washington St.
Mississippi @ Arkansas
Sunday
St. Joe’s @ Xavier
Clemson @ North Carolina
Indiana @ Ohio St.
Arizona St. @ Arizona
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