Best College Football games of 2007

There are close to 700 regular season college football games each season. Many of them are snooze-fests. The 130 games list below should pique your interest for 2007. There probably won't be as many exciting non-conference games as usual for a few reasons. Notre Dame probably won't be good. Many of the non-conference games that feature two marquee names feature teams with a lot of uncertainties. Nonetheless, there are some intriguing games out there in non-conference play. If Nebraska/Wake Forest gets you excited, then there are even more non-conference games worth looking in to.

Obviously, my rankings will have a fair amount of Midwest-bias but I did my best to remain neutral. My emphasis was placed on more than a few factors such as expected rankings, date and time of the game, and location. For instance, a game like Texas @ Texas A&M becomes increasingly more intriguing because the game is in College Station making the outcome less obvious. Other biases crept in as well such as my relative distaste for watching games in certain stadiums (i.e. games @ Florida or @ Miami (FL)). I love night games with crazy crowds which is why I have such an affinity for the Michigan/Wisconsin game. Keep in mind that my feelings were greatly influenced by how I expect teams to perform this year. In most seasons, Notre Dame vs. any-respectable-opponent would be a must-see game. Since ND will likely struggle this season, their games probably won’t be as entertaining. Also, some games that otherwise would look bland have the potential to be quite entertaining because of various factors. For instance, Washington plays both Boise St. and Hawaii both of which have very good chances of going undefeated. Although Washington probably won't be that good, it represents the major hurdle for the winner of the Hawaii/Boise St. game to an undefeated season. I did not include conference championship games so we have those to look forward to above and beyond these games.

As you will see in my weekly breakdown below the 130-list, five of my top 11 games take place the week of November 10. So, you might want to plan on being in front of your TV that week if you aren't heading to one of the games already. Ten of my top 73 games take place the week of November 24. So, plan accordingly. The worst week is week one which is the case in most years. Thankfully we don't have to start the season off with another Miami (FL)/Florida St. snoozer. Hopefully a meeting later in the season will make for a more entertaining game. I started putting this together a while back so I wasn't able to get times for all the games. I believe some of the "TBD" games have been given start-times since.

130 Best CFB games of 2007


1 Michigan @ Wisconsin 11/10/2007 TBD
2 Florida @ LSU 10/6/2007 @ 8pm
3 Oklahoma @ Texas 10/6/2007 TBD
4 Ohio St. @ Michigan 11/17/2007 TBD
5 Louisville @ West Virginia 11/8/2007 @ 7:30pm
6 USC @ Cal 11/10/2007 @ 8:00pm
7 Virginia Tech @ LSU 9/8/2007 @ 9:15pm
8 Florida @ Georgia 10/27/2007 TBD
9 Auburn @ LSU 10/20/2007 @ 8pm
10 Auburn @ Georgia 11/10/2007 TBD
11 Florida St. @ Virginia Tech 11/10/2007 TBD
12 Tennessee @ Cal 9/1/2007 @ 8pm
13 Wisconsin @ Ohio St. 11/3/2007 TBD
14 Georgia @ Tennessee 10/26/2007 TBD
15 Arkansas @ LSU 11/24/2007 @ 2:30
16 West Virginia @ Rutgers 10/27/2007 TBD
17 Tennessee @ Florida 9/15/2007 @ 3:30
18 Alabama @ Auburn 11/24/2007 TBD
19 Texas @ Texas A&M 11/23/2007 @ 3:30pm
20 Auburn @ Florida 9/29/2007 TBD
21 Rutgers @ Louisville 11/29/2007 @ 7:30pm
22 Miami (FL) @ Florida St. 10/20/2007 TBD
23 Miami (FL) @ Oklahoma 9/8/2007 @ 12pm
24 UCLA @ USC 12/1/2007 @ 4:30 pm
25 Auburn @ Arkansas 10/13/2007 @ 7pm
26 Ohio St. @ Penn St. 10/27/2007 @ 8pm
27 Miami (Fl) @ Virginia Tech 11/17/2007 TBD
28 Boise St. @ Hawaii 11/23/2007 @ 9:05pm
29 Florida St. @ Florida 11/23/2007 TBD
30 LSU @ Alabama 11/03/2007 TBD
31 Arkansas @ Tennessee 11/10/2007 TBD
32 Wisconsin @ Penn St. 10/13/2007 @ 3:30pm
33 Nebraska @ Texas 10/27/2007 TBD
34 Alabama @ Florida St. 9/29/2007 TBD
35 USC @ Nebraska 9/15/2007 @ 8pm
36 Georgia @ Alabama 9/22/2007 TBD
37 Virginia Tech @ Clemson 10/6/2007 TBD
38 Cal @ UCLA 10/20/2007 TBD
39 Tennessee @ Alabama 10/20/2007 TBD
40 Texas A&M @ Oklahoma 11/3/2007 TBD
41 Penn St. @ Michigan 9/22/2007 TBD
42 Florida St. @ Clemson 9/3/2007 @ 8pm
43 Arkansas @ Alabama 9/15/2007 @ 6:45pm
44 Oklahoma St. @ Oklahoma 11/24/2007 TBD
45 Texas @ Oklahoma St. 11/3/2007 TBD
46 Texas A&M @ Nebraska 10/20/2007 TBD
47 USC @ Oregon 10/27/2007 @ 3:00pm
48 Texas A&M @ Miami (FL) 9/20/2007 @ 7:30pm
49 Notre Dame @ Michigan 9/15/2007 @ 3:30pm
50 USC @ Notre Dame 10/20/2007 @ 3:30pm
51 Notre Dame @ Penn St. 9/8/2007 @ 6pm
52 Boston College @ Virginia Tech 10/25/2007 @ 7:30pm
53 Cal @ Oregon 9/29/2007 @ 3:30pm
54 Boston College @ Clemson 11/17/2007 TBD
55 TCU @ Texas 9/8/2007 @ 7pm
56 BYU @ UCLA 9/8/2007 @ 6:30 pm
57 TCU @ BYU 11/8/2007 @ 9pm
58 Oregon St. @ Oregon 12/1/2007 @ 4:30pm
59 Clemson @ S. Carolina 11/24/2007 TBD
60 Florida St. @ Boston College 11/3/2007 TBD
61 Florida @ S. Carolina 11/10/2007 TBD
62 Oregon @ Michigan 9/8/2007 @ 3:30pm
63 Miami (FL) @ Boston College 11/24/2007 TBD
64 Notre Dame @ UCLA 10/6/2007 @ 8pm
65 Oklahoma St. @ Georgia 9/1/2007 @ 6:45pm
66 Oklahoma St. @ Nebraska 10/13/2007 TBD
67 Nebraska @ Missouri 10/6/2007 TBD
68 Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech 11/1/2007 @ 7:30pm
69 Navy @ Army 12/1/2007 1pm
70 Air Force @ Navy 9/29/2007 @ 1pm
71 Oregon @ UCLA 11/24/2007 TBD
72 Michigan @ Michigan St. 11/3/2007 TBD
73 Georgia @ Georgia Tech 11/24/2007 TBD
74 Oklahoma St. @ Texas A&M 10/6/2007 @ 2pm
75 Ohio St. @ Purdue 10/6/2007 @ 8pm
76 Iowa @ Wisconsin 9/22/2007 8pm
77 S. Carolina @ Tennesee 10/27/2007 TBD
78 UCLA @ Oregon St. 9/29/2007 TBD
79 Florida St. @ Wake Forest 10/11/2007 @ 7:30pm
80 S. Carolina @ Georgia 9/8/2007 @ 5:45pm
81 Oklahoma @ Texas Tech 11/17/2007 @ 2pm
82 Iowa @ Penn St. 10/6/2007 TBD
83 S. Carolina @ Arkansas 11/3/2007 @ 2pm
84 S. Carolina @ LSU 9/22/2007 @ 8pm
85 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma St. 9/22/2007 @ 3:30pm
86 Texas A&M @ Missouri 11/10/2007 TBD
87 Texas Tech @ Texas 11/10/2007 TBD
88 Clemson @ Georgia Tech 9/29/2007 TBD
89 Nebraska @ Wake Forest 9/8/2007 @ 12pm
90 Boston College @ Notre Dame 10/13/2007 @ 3:30pm
91 Missouri @ Oklahoma 10/13/2007 TBD
92 Georgia Tech @ Miami (FL) 10/13/2007 TBD
93 Texas A&M @ Texas Tech 10/13/2007 @ 7pm
94 Purdue @ Penn St. 11/3/2007 TBD
95 Wake Forest @ Clemson 11/10/2007 TBD
96 Michigan St. @ Notre Dame 9/22/2007 @ 3:30
97 Boston College @ Georgia Tech 9/15/2007 @ 8pm
98 Oregon St. @ Cal 10/13/2007 TBD
99 Wake Forest @ Boston College 9/1/2007 @ 3:30pm
100 Iowa @ Purdue 10/20/2007 TBD
101 Oregon St. @ USC 11/3/2007 @ 8pm
102 West Virginia @ Maryland 9/13/2007 @ 7:30pm
103 Louisville @ S. Florida 11/17/2007 TBD
104 West Virginia @ S. Florida 9/28/2007 @ 8pm
105 Maryland @ Rutgers 9/29/2007 TBD
106 Notre Dame @ Purdue 9/29/2007 TBD
107 Purdue @ Michigan 10/13/2007 TBD
108 S. Florida @ Rutgers 10/18/2007 @ 7:30pm
109 Penn St. @ Michigan St. 11/17/2007 TBD
110 Texas Tech @ Missouri 10/20/2007 TBD
111 Michigan St. @ Ohio St. 10/20/2007 @ 3:30pm
112 Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame 9/1/2007 @ 3:30pm
113 Pittsburgh @ West Virginia 12/1/2007 TBD
114 Navy @ Notre Dame 11/3/2007 @ 2:30pm
115 Michigan @ Illinois 10/20/2007 @ 8pm
116 Nebraska @ Colorado 11/23/2007 @ 12pm
117 Wisconsin @ Illinois 10/6/2007 TBD
118 Florida St. @ Colorado 9/15/2007 @ 10pm
119 Penn St. @ Illinois 9/29/2007 TBD
120 USC @ Arizona St. 11/22/2007 @ 8pm
121 Missouri @ Illinois 9/1/2007 @ 3:30pm
122 Oklahoma @ Colorado 9/29/2007 TBD
123 Boise St. @ Washington 9/18/2007 @ 3:30pm
124 Washington @ Hawaii 12/1/2007 TBD
125 Arizona @ BYU 9/1/2007 @ 5:30pm
126 Illinois @ Ohio St. 11/10/2007 TBD
127 Wake Forest @ Navy 10/20/2007 @ 1pm
128 S. Florida @ Auburn 9/8/2007 @ 9pm
129 Michigan St. @ Wisconsin 9/29/2007 TBD
130 Army @ Air Force 11/3/2007 @ 3:30pm

Best Non-Conference Games

1 Virginia Tech @ LSU 9/8/2007 @ 9:15pm
2 Tennessee @ Cal 9/1/2007 @ 8pm
3 Miami (FL) @ Oklahoma 9/8/2007 @ 12pm
4 Alabama @ Florida St. 9/29/2007 TBD
5 Florida St. @ Florida 11/23/2007 TBD
6 USC @ Nebraska 9/15/2007 @ 8pm
7 Texas A&M @ Miami (FL) 9/20/2007 @ 7:30pm
8 Notre Dame @ Michigan 9/15/2007 @ 3:30pm
9 USC @ Notre Dame 10/20/2007 @ 3:30pm
10 Notre Dame @ Penn St. 9/8/2007 @ 6pm
11 BYU @ UCLA 9/8/2007 @ 6:30 pm
12 Clemson @ S. Carolina 11/24/2007 TBD
13 TCU @ Texas 9/8/2007 @ 7pm
14 Oregon @ Michigan 9/8/2007 @ 3:30pm
15 Notre Dame @ UCLA 10/6/2007 @ 8pm
16 Georgia @ Georgia Tech 11/24/2007 TBD
17 Nebraska @ Wake Forest 9/8/2007 @ 12pm
18 Boston College @ N.D. 10/13/2007 @ 3:30pm
19 Michigan St. @ N.D. 9/22/2007 @ 3:30
20 West Virginia @ Maryland9/13/2007 @ 7:30pm
21 Maryland @ Rutgers 9/29/2007 TBD
22 Notre Dame @ Purdue 9/29/2007 TBD
23 Oklahoma St. @ Georgia 9/1/2007 @ 6:45pm
24 Florida St. @ Colorado 9/15/2007 @ 10pm
25 Georgia Tech @ N.D. 9/1/2007 @ 3:30pm
26 Missouri @ Illinois 9/1/2007 @ 3:30pm
27 Arizona @ BYU 9/1/2007 @ 5:30pm
28 Boise St. @ Washington 9/18/2007 @ 3:30pm
29 Washington St. @ Wisc. 9/1/2007 @ 3:30pm
30 Ohio St. @ Washington 9/15/2007 @ 3:30pm
31 S. Florida @ Auburn 9/8/2007 @ 9pm
32 Kansas St. @ Auburn 9/1/2007 @ 7:45pm
33 Pittsburgh @ MSU 9/15/2007 @ 12pm
34 Colorado @ Arizona St. 9/18/2007 @ 10:15pm

Top 130 games Weekly Breakdown

Week 1

99 Wake Forest @ Boston College 9/1/2007 @ 3:30pm
112 Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame 9/1/2007 @ 3:30pm
121 Missouri @ Illinois 9/1/2007 @ 3:30pm
125 Arizona @ BYU 9/1/2007 @ 5:30pm
65 Oklahoma St. @ Georgia 9/1/2007 @ 6:45pm
12 Tennessee @ Cal 9/1/2007 @ 8pm
42 Florida St. @ Clemson 9/3/2007 @ 8pm

Week 2

23 Miami (FL) @ Oklahoma 9/8/2007 @ 12pm
89 Nebraska @ Wake Forest 9/8/2007 @ 12pm
62 Oregon @ Michigan 9/8/2007 @ 3:30pm
80 S. Carolina @ Georgia 9/8/2007 @ 5:45pm
56 BYU @ UCLA 9/8/2007 @ 6:30 pm
51 Notre Dame @ Penn St. 9/8/2007 @ 6pm
55 TCU @ Texas 9/8/2007 @ 7pm
128 S. Florida @ Auburn 9/8/2007 @ 9pm
7 Virginia Tech @ LSU 9/8/2007 @ 9:15pm

Week 3

102 West Virginia @ Maryland 9/13/2007 @ 7:30pm
118 Florida St. @ Colorado 9/15/2007 @ 10pm
17 Tennessee @ Florida 9/15/2007 @ 3:30
49 Notre Dame @ Michigan 9/15/2007 @ 3:30pm
43 Arkansas @ Alabama 9/15/2007 @ 6:45pm
35 USC @ Nebraska 9/15/2007 @ 8pm
97 Boston College @ Georgia Tech 9/15/2007 @ 8pm

Week 4

123 Boise St. @ Washington 9/18/2007 @ 3:30pm
48 Texas A&M @ Miami (FL) 9/20/2007 @ 7:30pm
96 Michigan St. @ Notre Dame 9/22/2007 @ 3:30
85 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma St. 9/22/2007 @ 3:30pm
84 S. Carolina @ LSU 9/22/2007 @ 8pm
76 Iowa @ Wisconsin 9/22/2007 8pm
36 Georgia @ Alabama 9/22/2007 TBD
41 Penn St. @ Michigan 9/22/2007 TBD

Week 5

104 West Virginia @ S. Florida 9/28/2007 @ 8pm
70 Air Force @ Navy 9/29/2007 @ 1pm
53 Cal @ Oregon 9/29/2007 @ 3:30pm
20 Auburn @ Florida 9/29/2007 TBD
34 Alabama @ Florida St. 9/29/2007 TBD
78 UCLA @ Oregon St. 9/29/2007 TBD
88 Clemson @ Georgia Tech 9/29/2007 TBD
105 Maryland @ Rutgers 9/29/2007 TBD
106 Notre Dame @ Purdue 9/29/2007 TBD
119 Penn St. @ Illinois 9/29/2007 TBD
122 Oklahoma @ Colorado 9/29/2007 TBD
129 Michigan St. @ Wisconsin 9/29/2007 TBD

Week 6

74 Oklahoma St. @ Texas A&M 10/6/2007 @ 2pm
2 Florida @ LSU 10/6/2007 @ 8pm
64 Notre Dame @ UCLA 10/6/2007 @ 8pm
75 Ohio St. @ Purdue 10/6/2007 @ 8pm
3 Oklahoma @ Texas 10/6/2007 TBD
37 Virginia Tech @ Clemson 10/6/2007 TBD
67 Nebraska @ Missouri 10/6/2007 TBD
82 Iowa @ Penn St. 10/6/2007 TBD
117 Wisconsin @ Illinois 10/6/2007 TBD

Week 7

79 Florida St. @ Wake Forest 10/11/2007 @ 7:30pm
32 Wisconsin @ Penn St. 10/13/2007 @ 3:30pm
90 Boston College @ Notre Dame 10/13/2007 @ 3:30pm
25 Auburn @ Arkansas 10/13/2007 @ 7pm
93 Texas A&M @ Texas Tech 10/13/2007 @ 7pm
66 Oklahoma St. @ Nebraska 10/13/2007 TBD
91 Missouri @ Oklahoma 10/13/2007 TBD
92 Georgia Tech @ Miami (FL) 10/13/2007 TBD
98 Oregon St. @ Cal 10/13/2007 TBD
107 Purdue @ Michigan 10/13/2007 TBD

Week 8

108 S. Florida @ Rutgers 10/18/2007 @ 7:30pm
127 Wake Forest @ Navy 10/20/2007 @ 1pm
50 USC @ Notre Dame 10/20/2007 @ 3:30pm
111 Michigan St. @ Ohio St. 10/20/2007 @ 3:30pm
9 Auburn @ LSU 10/20/2007 @ 8pm
115 Michigan @ Illinois 10/20/2007 @ 8pm
22 Miami (FL) @ Florida St. 10/20/2007 TBD
38 Cal @ UCLA 10/20/2007 TBD
39 Tennessee @ Alabama 10/20/2007 TBD
46 Texas A&M @ Nebraska 10/20/2007 TBD
100 Iowa @ Purdue 10/20/2007 TBD
110 Texas Tech @ Missouri 10/20/2007 TBD

Week 9

52 Boston College @ Virginia Tech 10/25/2007 @ 7:30pm
14 Georgia @ Tennessee 10/26/2007 TBD
47 USC @ Oregon 10/27/2007 @ 3:00pm
26 Ohio St. @ Penn St. 10/27/2007 @ 8pm
8 Florida @ Georgia 10/27/2007 TBD
16 West Virginia @ Rutgers 10/27/2007 TBD
33 Nebraska @ Texas 10/27/2007 TBD
77 S. Carolina @ Tennesee 10/27/2007 TBD

Week 10

68 Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech 11/1/2007 @ 7:30pm
30 LSU @ Alabama 11/3/2007 TBD
114 Navy @ Notre Dame 11/3/2007 @ 2:30pm
83 S. Carolina @ Arkansas 11/3/2007 @ 2pm
130 Army @ Air Force 11/3/2007 @ 3:30pm
101 Oregon St. @ USC 11/3/2007 @ 8pm
13 Wisconsin @ Ohio St. 11/3/2007 TBD
40 Texas A&M @ Oklahoma 11/3/2007 TBD
45 Texas @ Oklahoma St. 11/3/2007 TBD
60 Florida St. @ Boston College 11/3/2007 TBD
72 Michigan @ Michigan St. 11/3/2007 TBD
94 Purdue @ Penn St. 11/3/2007 TBD

Week 11

5 Louisville @ West Virginia 11/8/2007 @ 7:30pm
57 TCU @ BYU 11/8/2007 @ 9pm
6 USC @ Cal 11/10/2007 @ 8:00pm
1 Michigan @ Wisconsin 11/10/2007 TBD
10 Auburn @ Georgia 11/10/2007 TBD
11 Florida St. @ Virginia Tech 11/10/2007 TBD
31 Arkansas @ Tennessee 11/10/2007 TBD
61 Florida @ S. Carolina 11/10/2007 TBD
86 Texas A&M @ Missouri 11/10/2007 TBD
87 Texas Tech @ Texas 11/10/2007 TBD
95 Wake Forest @ Clemson 11/10/2007 TBD
126 Illinois @ Ohio St. 11/10/2007 TBD

Week 12

81 Oklahoma @ Texas Tech 11/17/2007 @ 2pm
4 Ohio St. @ Michigan 11/17/2007 TBD
27 Miami (Fl) @ Virginia Tech 11/17/2007 TBD
54 Boston College @ Clemson 11/17/2007 TBD
103 Louisville @ S. Florida 11/17/2007 TBD
109 Penn St. @ Michigan St. 11/17/2007 TBD

Week 13

120 USC @ Arizona St. 11/22/2007 @ 8pm
116 Nebraska @ Colorado 11/23/2007 @ 12pm
19 Texas @ Texas A&M 11/23/2007 @ 3:30pm
28 Boise St. @ Hawaii 11/23/2007 @ 9:05pm
29 Florida St. @ Florida 11/23/2007 TBD
15 Arkansas @ LSU 11/24/2007 @ 2:30
18 Alabama @ Auburn 11/24/2007 TBD
44 Oklahoma St. @ Oklahoma 11/24/2007 TBD
59 Clemson @ S. Carolina 11/24/2007 TBD
63 Miami (FL) @ Boston College 11/24/2007 TBD
71 Oregon @ UCLA 11/24/2007 TBD
73 Georgia @ Georgia Tech 11/24/2007 TBD

Week 14

21 Rutgers @ Louisville 11/29/2007 @ 7:30pm
24 UCLA @ USC 12/1/2007 @ 4:30 pm
58 Oregon St. @ Oregon 12/1/2007 @ 4:30pm
69 Navy @ Army 12/1/2007 1pm
113 Pittsburgh @ West Virginia 12/1/2007 TBD
124 Washington @ Hawaii 12/1/2007 TBD

Active Hall of Fame Projections: Pitcher

Baseball fans have been incredibly fortunate over the last 20+ years and most probably won’t realize the significance until it’s too late. Four of the ten greatest pitchers in baseball history have been pitching in the majors at the same time for a number of seasons. There is precedent for such an anomaly as Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, and Pete Alexander all pitched in 1911. That was the only season all four pitched at the same time since that was Young’s final season. Mathewson, Johnson, and Alexander pitched at the same time for six seasons before Mathewson retired in 1916. Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez have been pitching together for 16 seasons. That is incredible. Before too long, all four are going to be retired and our children will say, “geez, you were so lucky to have been able to see all four of those pitchers at the same time.”

Here are the categories that I will be using to breakdown the candidates and a brief description of each category: The “Lock” and “Likely” categories will be counted as being projected into the Hall of Fame. There won’t be too many “Borderline” candidates but I’ll decide those projections on a case by case basis. I will not count players under 29 regardless of my opinion but I’ll identify players under 29 who seem to be off to excellent starts.

Lock: Barring steroid scandal, will be a Hall of Famer
Likely: Player is on the path based on career progression
Borderline: Pretty close to 50/50; or could make a charge
Not Likely: Almost no chance; would take an unexpected resurgence
Under 29: Players that have a good start to a potential HOF career*

*I'm using "under-29" for pitchers to limit baseless projections


Active Hall of Fame Pitchers

Locks (7)

Roger Clemens

There is no question in my mind that Roger Clemens could keep pitching for five more years. I just get the feeling that he’s not all that into it. He seems intrigued enough to accept a gazillion dollars to play the second-half of the season and possibly the playoffs but not enough to get in shape in time for the beginning of the season. I applaud the effort but I think his indifference will only make it more difficult for him to come back next season. The crazy thing is that Clemens would only need to win 11 games per season over the next four years to get to 400 (!!!). He could do it if he wants to but I think he’s got one year left tops.

Greg Maddux

It didn’t dawn on me how close Maddux was to Clemens in wins until earlier this year. Clemens’ two half-seasons allowed Maddux to creep closer. Over the last two years, Maddux has 24 wins to Clemens’ 12 wins. With only a lead of 11-wins, there is no guarantee that Clemens will be the all-time wins leader in the modern-era. Maddux is three-years younger and pitching pretty well. I’d have to say the odds are on Maddux to nudge ahead of Clemens before it’s all said and done.

Randy Johnson

If there is even a sliver of hope that Johnson can pitch again, I think he’ll get to 300 wins. You don’t dominate baseball in the way Johnson has, get to 284 wins, and feel good about it. Those extra 16 wins will eat at him until he knows he’s devoted every last resource into getting back on the mound. Getting to 300 wins will not define Johnson’s legacy, it’ll just make it prettier. Johnson, Maddux, and Clemens are three of the 10 best pitchers in baseball history. Depending on your viewpoint they may even be three of the best five pitchers in baseball history. Four years from now, all three will be retired. That’s going to be a bummer.

Pedro Martinez

Twenty years from now, people will be talking about Pedro Martinez in the same way people have been talking about Sandy Koufax for the last 30 years. Except, Pedro’s statistics are even more ridiculous than what Koufax produced. In fact, Pedro’s numbers are more ridiculous than anyone who has ever pitched. The problem is that he hasn’t done it long enough. He’s as fragile as a porcelain doll. Still, he has 206 wins before the age of 35. Clemens had 208. Maddux had 242. Both Clemens and Maddux easily passed the 300-win mark. If Pedro stays healthy—which is like saying, if I never eat pizza again—he has a very good chance at 300 wins. By more than a few measures, Pedro is the greatest statistical pitcher of all-time.

Tom Glavine

Glavine has been the must unheralded of the great pitchers of this era. I don’t think it’s undeserving either. I appreciate what he has done. There is no question he deserves election to the Hall of Fame. He has just never been a dominating pitcher. Even Curt Schilling and John Smoltz’s career numbers are considerably better than Glavine’s aside from wins. But, Glavine put together four or five stellar seasons along with 15 seasons of consistently-solid pitching. That’s the recipe for the Hall of Fame.

Mariano Rivera

Rivera will probably go down as the greatest relief pitcher of all-time. His post-season exploits alone are enough to garner that distinction (his ERA in 112.2 post-season innings is .80). Rivera’s career ERA+ is an astonishing 194. He has a great chance at breaking the all-time saves record. He has won four World Series rings. He is unquestionably a “lock.”

Trevor Hoffman

If it weren’t for Rivera, Hoffman would probably be considered the greatest closer of all-time. He has more saves than anyone who has ever played the game. He has a 150 ERA+ and finished in the top six of the MVP voting on four occasions. He has an astounding WHIP of 1.04. Hoffman’s fate will be much different than the last player to hold the record for all-time saves (Lee Smith).


Likely (3)

Johan Santana

Santana is about two seasons away from securing “lock” status. As I mentioned last week, Santana already has had a six-year stretch that is similar to the six-year stretch that allowed Sandy Koufax to waltz into the Hall of Fame. Even if Santana’s career ended today, there is a decent chance he would be elected to the Hall of Fame. Two more healthy seasons will virtually guarantee it.

John Smoltz

If Tom Glavine is a Hall of Fame pitcher, then John Smoltz is a Hall of Fame pitcher. Smoltz has a significantly better career ERA+, WHIP, and K/9. The only average where Glavine has an advantage over Smoltz is a slightly-better winning percentage. That can be attributed to bad luck on Smoltz’s behalf. More times than not, a pitcher with a significantly better ERA, WHIP and K/9 will have a better winning percentage over a career. Smoltz also became one of the most dominant closers in MLB history for three seasons. Smoltz should be a “lock.’ I think he’ll make it but I’m going to leave him in the “likely” category in case too many insane people hold votes down the road.

Curt Schilling

If John Smoltz is a Hall of Fame pitcher, then Curt Schilling is clearly a Hall of Fame pitcher as well. Schilling has more wins, with a slightly better winning percentage, WHIP, and K/9. Both pitchers sport an almost identical ERA+ (127-126). Both pitchers had tremendous success in the playoffs although Schilling was the catalyst for two World Series Championships and his playoff performances were legendary. The only advantage Smoltz has on Schilling is that Schilling was never a closer. Both pitchers are Hall of Fame “starters.” The closer thing is just icing on the cake for Smoltz. Schilling should be a “lock” but I’ll leave him in the “likely” category with Smoltz.

Borderline (2)

Roy Oswalt

Once Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Martinez, Smoltz, Glavine, and Schilling retire, Oswalt will likely be the most accomplished active National League pitcher. He has 111 wins at the age of 29. His ERA+ is very good at 141. His winning percentage is a ridiculous .677. He has finished in the top five of the NL MVP voting five times in six seasons. If he stays healthy, Oswalt has a very good chance of making the Hall of Fame. If he ever wins a Cy Young award, I think that will cement his status.

Billy Wagner

I can’t remember where I read this but I recently came across an article that proclaimed Wagner the greatest pitcher of all-time by using a combination of measures. I don’t think the author of said post even believed that but I think the point was to show how great of a pitcher Wagner has been. He has a 185 ERA+ and a 1.00 WHIP. Both numbers beat Trevor Hoffman’s totals. In fact, Wagner’s ERA+ is considerably better than Hoffman’s (185-150). Not to mention, Wagner has the ever-elusive “infinite” ERA+ season under his belt. Of course, that was his rookie season in which he only pitched to one batter. Nonetheless, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a closer other than Mariano Rivera who has put together the seasonal averages that Wagner has. He “should” be a Hall of Famer but I’m not sure what will happen. I say he’s “borderline” but voters come to their wits and elect him.

Mike Mussina

Mussina has dropped off considerably in 2007. If he can change his game-plan enough to stay effective for four or five more seasons, he may reach 300 wins. I don’t think most baseball fans view Mussina as a Hall of Fame pitcher so anything short of 300 wins would probably keep him out. However, Mussina has reached three of Baseball-Reference.com’s four Hall of Fame measures. He has finished in the top six of the AL MVP voting eight times. His career winning percentage is very good at .633. If I had to guess, I would say Mussina falls short. His chances are about 33% right now.

Tim Hudson

Hudson is a very good pitcher. He has the fourth-highest winning percentage of any active pitcher at .673. He’ll likely finish in the top-six of the NL MVP voting for the fourth time this season. Hudson hasn’t won more than 16 games in a season since 2001. Without those coveted high-end seasons, Hudson will struggle to make it to the HOF.

Roy Halladay

If Halladay could just stay healthy, he and Santana could develop a friendly rivalry. Halladay is right there with Oswalt and Zito with 109 wins at 30. I kind of half-expect a Curt Schilling-esque finish to Halladay’s career. He is a workhorse who just hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Schilling became a truly dominating pitcher after the age of 30. I would not be surprised to see Halladay do the same. The only thing is that you cannot expect that sort of finish to a career. So, Halladay remains on the outside looking in.

Unlikely

Barry Zito

Zito is 29 and has the exact same number of wins as Oswalt (111). That’s where the similarities end. Zito’s best season—and only great season—was five years ago when he won the AL Cy Young. He is still a decent pitcher but he is no longer viewed as a front-of-the-rotation pitcher. Barring a drastic turn of events, Zito has no chance of making it to Cooperstown.

Andy Pettitte

I think Pettitte could win 300 games if he had the desire to pitch long enough. He’ll be at 200 by the end of this season at the age of 35. He is still pitching well enough to win 15+ games a year. I’m not sure Pettitte wants to pitch that long but it’s not an impossible proposition. Pettitte has been Mussina-esque. He has finished in the top six of the Cy Young voting on five different occasions. He has a very good winning percentage at .640. Like Mussina, I think the only way Pettitte makes it to the HOF is if he does stick around long enough to reach 300 wins.

Chris Carpenter

Carpenter would have to dominate baseball for the next 5+ years. His career resurgence has been derailed by an injury. It’s a shame because he was the best pitcher in the NL before he went down. He will likely bounce back with a few good seasons but I think the injury combined with the fact that he didn’t become an elite pitcher until he was 31 makes it highly unlikely.

Under 29 to keep an eye on:

Erik Bedard

Bedard is right on Webb’s tail. He is putting together an unbelievable ’07 campaign and it would not be surprising if it resulted in a Cy Young award. Bedard seems to have figured everything out. One season is obviously nowhere near enough to start projecting a guy into the HOF but it’ll be interesting to see what he does over the next 5-10 years.

Brandon Webb

Webb is quickly making a name for himself as a bona fide superstar. He won the NL Cy Young award last season and could do it again this year. His unbelievable streak of 42 consecutive scoreless innings streak just ended. Even though he didn’t break the record, it is so much harder to maintain a streak that long in this age, than it was for Orel Hershiser and Don Drysdale who pitched in eras that featured low run-production. Webb is having an even better season in 2007 than his Cy Young season so a second consecutive award is not out of the question. Webb is putting together a string of dominating seasons that is a necessity for a pitcher to even be considered for the Hall of Fame.

Francisco Rodriguez

It’s way too early to project “F-Rod”. His numbers are fantastic. His ERA+ is right in line with Wagner’s. He just needs to pitch at the same level for 10+ seasons. Relievers are high-injury risks so we’ll just have to wait and see if he is the next Eric Gagne or Trevor Hoffman.

Dontrelle Willis

Willis is only 25. His career numbers aren’t overwhelming but he still has a long way to go. It’s possible that Willis has already had the best season that he’ll ever have going 22-10 in 2005. There are a lot of teams who were considering giving up “the farm” for Willis that are now breathing a collective sigh of relief. His value has plummeted. There are still a lot of teams that would love to have him in their rotation but not at the price that was expected two years ago. As of right now, it is unlikely that Willis will have impressive enough numbers to make it to Cooperstown.

Jake Peavy

Peavy is putting together a masterful 2007-campaign. He is still way too young to judge. He has an impressive win-total (71) at the age of 26. I think he has the best chance of any pitcher under the age of 28 to making it to the Hall of Fame.

C.C Sabathia

Sabathia is in the same category as Peavy. He has a whopping 95 wins at the age of 27 but amazingly has never even finished in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA+ (113) is nowhere near as impressive as his win-total. If Sabathia sticks around long enough, he could make a run at 300 wins. He’s also very young which means a dominating turn of events could definitely happen. I have no idea how his career is going to turn out. It’s way too early to project.

Josh Beckett

Beckett’s career is right in there with Sabathia’s. Both have been around a while with decent win totals. Both have disappointing ERA+ and both have never finished in the Cy Young voting period. But, Beckett is only 27. He is putting together the best season of his career which should result in a top five Cy Young finish at a minimum. Like a lot of these other pitchers, it is way too early to start projecting Beckett.

Carlos Zambrano

Like so many other young pitchers, Zambrano has been unspectacularly impressive to start his career. He has been good but not unbelievable. Zambrano is only 26 so those peak seasons are still likely in his future.

Dan Haren

Haren is Penny minus a few average seasons.


Final Pitcher Projections (12)

Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman
Johan Santana
John Smoltz
Curt Schilling
Roy Oswalt
Billy Wagner



Final Hall of Fame Projections 2007

My total projections comes to 37 active-players over the age of 24 to make it to Cooperstown. That number will almost certainly be higher since some of the players under-25 will undoubtedly make it to the Hall of Fame as well. There is a pretty good chance that at least six of those players will make it to the Hall of Fame putting the current active-player total closer to 43. Just to compare, here are how many active Hall of Famers there were over the last several decades:

19 in 1987*
29 in 1977*
38 in 1967
32 in 1957
31 in 1947
41 in 1937
53 in 1927

*Keep in mind these totals are likely to increase since it can take 20 years or more for players to be elected.

If there are 43 active Hall of Famers, that would make this one of the most star-studded eras in MLB history. Hall of Fame voters make take a stance down the line to reduce the number of entrants because of a possible perception that "too many" players are getting into the Hall of Fame but it's important not to take for granted how much skill it takes to dominate the game of baseball for a number of years. I hope the word "quota" never comes into play when a player's career is scrutinized for possible induction into the Hall of Fame.


Final Projected Catchers (2)

Pudge Rodriguez
Mike Piazza

Final Projected First Basemen (8)

Frank Thomas
Albert Pujols
Jim Thome
Todd Helton
Carlos Delgado
David Ortiz
Ryan Howard
Justin Morneau

Final Projected Second Basemen (2)

Craig Biggio
Jeff Kent

Final Projected Shortstops (3)

Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Miguel Tejada

Final Projected Third Basemen (1)

Chipper Jones

Final Projected Outfield (9)

Barry Bonds
Ken Griffey Jr.
Sammy Sosa
Manny Ramirez
Vladimir Guerrero
Ichiro Suzuki
Andruw Jones
Gary Sheffield
Carl Crawford

Final Projected Pitchers (12)

Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman
Johan Santana
John Smoltz
Curt Schilling
Roy Oswalt
Billy Wagner


Under 25 catchers to keep an eye on:

Joe Mauer

Mauer is only 24-years old so I’m projecting quite a bit here but I’m confident that he’ll be a Hall of Famer if he can avoid injury. He already has an AL Batting Title under his belt. He finished 6th in the AL MVP voting at the age of 23. He has a career batting average of .318. He has more career walks than strikeouts and he bats clean-up. He is easily the most talented all-around catcher that I have ever watched. He is a long career ahead of him but I think he’ll go down as one of the all-time greats.

Brian McCann

McCann is playing in his third season at the ripe age of 23. He already has two All-Star game appearances. He finished 6th in the NL batting race with a .333 in ’06. That same season, he hit 24 HRs with 92 RBIs. His OPS was through the roof for a catcher at .960. He has more pop than Mauer but he doesn’t appear to have Mauer’s overall game. His ’07 campaign hasn’t been nearly as impressive but I can’t imagine a better start to a career for a catcher outside of Minnesota.


Under 25 first basemen to keep an eye on:

Prince Fielder

My first memories of Prince Fielder are from the '92 and '93 seasons. He appeared in a McDonald's commercial with his dad. If I remember correctly, they were promoting the "Triple Cheeseburger." Prince was mowing down one of those bad boys like it was a saltine cracker. He was a big boy. When I heard that he was a first-round draft pick in 2002, that commercial ran through my mind and I couldn't believe that round, little boy became one of the best baseball players in the world. Fielder hit 28 HRs in his rookie year ('06) and came in 7th in the Rookie of the Year voting. That should give you an idea of how strong the '06 NL rookie class was. Fielder has followed up his rookie season by destroying NL pitching. He has led the NL in home runs for virtually the entire season. He is on pace for close to 50 HRs and he is only 23. The sky is the limit for Fielder.


Under 25 second basemen to keep an eye on:

Robinson Cano

Cano is only 24. Projecting 16 years into the future is a tall task. I’ll just say that he is about to finish his third full season in the majors with a career batting average of .313. He got an early enough start that if he plays long enough, he’ll be able to put up some impressive career numbers. His power numbers leave a lot to be desired but he’s playing the right position to be a singles and doubles hitter.


Under 25 shortstops to keep an eye on:

Hanley Ramirez

Ramirez is only 23 so it’s way too early to know how good he’s going to be. I’m getting a Miguel Cabrera-vibe. That would put Ramirez on the fast-rack to stardom. He won the NL Rookie of the Year last season and has followed that with a monster sophomore campaign. He’s hitting .342 with a whopping 155 OPS+. I’m not sure how the Marlins keep having fire-sales only to end up with players that are better than the ones they got rid of. It is mighty impressive.
Jose Reyes

If I knew for sure that Reyes would be guaranteed to play injury-free until the age of 35, I would call him a “lock”. There isn’t a young player in baseball today—including Miguel Cabrera—who has a better shot at Cooperstown than Reyes. I think he’ll end up being the closest thing to Rickey Henderson that we’ll ever see.


Under 25 third basemen to keep an eye on:

Miguel Cabrera

Per my rules, Cabrera is not eligible to be projected into the Hall of Fame. He has to fall under the “Under 25 to look out for” category. But, I think there is a very good chance that Cabrera will be recognized as the greatest offensive third baseman in MLB history by the time his career is over. However, it would not shock me if he eventually moved to another position at some point. Only 24 years-old, Cabrera is working on his fourth-straight 100-RBI season. His career batting average is .315 and rising rapidly. He has finished fifth in the NL MVP voting in each of the last two years and will likely fare better in the ’07 voting—possibly even winning it. Using Baseball-Reference.com’s player similarity scores, Cabrera—through the age of 23—compares most favorably to Hank Aaron.

David Wright

If Miguel Cabrera is a 10 on a scale of 1-10 for third basemen, then Wright is a 9.5. Wright, like Cabrera is only 24 (and thus not eligible to be projected into the Hall of Fame per my rules) and is working on his third-straight 25+ HR/100-RBI season. His OPS+ is a sizzling 135 and he sports a .305 career average. Wright started early enough that he’ll likely pile up massive career numbers on his way to Cooperstown.

Ryan Braun

Braun’s offensive statistics for ’07 are ridiculous. Perhaps nobody in MLB history has started a career more impressively. In just 69 games (all in ‘07), Braun has 22 home runs, 59 RBIs, a .346 batting average and a 169 OPS+. While 69-game mark is a little early to start talking about the Hall of Fame, it is not too early to put him on the list of players to watch under 25.



Under 25 outfielders to keep an eye on:

Grady Sizemore

Sizemore turned 25 earlier this month but I’m going to keep him in this category. In fact, the time I do this—whenever that may be—I’ll probably only project players 27 or older with a few exceptions. Sizemore is every bit as good as Carl Crawford but he has more power. If Sizemore stays healthy, I think there’s a 75% chance he makes the Hall of Fame.

Under 29 pitchers to keep an eye on:

Erik Bedard

Bedard is right on Webb’s tail. He is putting together an unbelievable ’07 campaign and it would not be surprising if it resulted in a Cy Young award. Bedard seems to have figured everything out. One season is obviously nowhere near enough to start projecting a guy into the HOF but it’ll be interesting to see what he does over the next 5-10 years.

Brandon Webb

Webb is quickly making a name for himself as a bona fide superstar. He won the NL Cy Young award last season and could do it again this year. His unbelievable streak of 42 consecutive scoreless innings streak just ended. Even though he didn’t break the record, it is so much harder to maintain a streak that long in this age, than it was for Orel Hershiser and Don Drysdale who pitched in eras that featured low run-production. Webb is having an even better season in 2007 than his Cy Young season so a second consecutive award is not out of the question. Webb is putting together a string of dominating seasons that is a necessity for a pitcher to even be considered for the Hall of Fame.

Francisco Rodriguez

It’s way too early to project “F-Rod”. His numbers are fantastic. His ERA+ is right in line with Wagner’s. He just needs to pitch at the same level for 10+ seasons. Relievers are high-injury risks so we’ll just have to wait and see if he is the next Eric Gagne or Trevor Hoffman.

Dontrelle Willis

Willis is only 25. His career numbers aren’t overwhelming but he still has a long way to go. It’s possible that Willis has already had the best season that he’ll ever have going 22-10 in 2005. There are a lot of teams who were considering giving up “the farm” for Willis that are now breathing a collective sigh of relief. His value has plummeted. There are still a lot of teams that would love to have him in their rotation but not at the price that was expected two years ago. As of right now, it is unlikely that Willis will have impressive enough numbers to make it to Cooperstown.

Jake Peavy

Peavy is putting together a masterful 2007-campaign. He is still way too young to judge. He has an impressive win-total (71) at the age of 26. I think he has the best chance of any pitcher under the age of 28 to making it to the Hall of Fame.

C.C Sabathia

Sabathia is in the same category as Peavy. He has a whopping 95 wins at the age of 27 but amazingly has never even finished in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA+ (113) is nowhere near as impressive as his win-total. If Sabathia sticks around long enough, he could make a run at 300 wins. He’s also very young which means a dominating turn of events could definitely happen. I have no idea how his career is going to turn out. It’s way too early to project.

Josh Beckett

Beckett’s career is right in there with Sabathia’s. Both have been around a while with decent win totals. Both have disappointing ERA+ and both have never finished in the Cy Young voting period. But, Beckett is only 27. He is putting together the best season of his career which should result in a top five Cy Young finish at a minimum. Like a lot of these other pitchers, it is way too early to start projecting Beckett.

Carlos Zambrano

Like so many other young pitchers, Zambrano has been unspectacularly impressive to start his career. He has been good but not unbelievable. Zambrano is only 26 so those peak seasons are still likely in his future.

Dan Haren

Haren is Penny minus a few average seasons.

Greatest Lefty of All-Time?

There are a lot of baseball "people" who believe that Sandy Koufax—while not necessarily the greatest pitcher career-wise of all-time—may have been the greatest left-handed pitcher who ever lived. Nobody will ever know for certain if that is true because it’s not a provable notion. However, my opinion recently changed a bit after I looked into the matter more closely. The spark that got me going on this was my curiosity as to how Johan Santana stands up to the greatest lefties in history. This was a few weeks before his 17 K effort against the Rangers but that sort of performance only reiterates why I wanted to look a bit further into the validity of the “Koufax greatest lefty ever”-thing.

There is no question in my mind that Santana is a brilliant and dominating pitcher. So, Koufax would have to be uber-brilliant to truly be "heads and tails" better than everyone else including Santana. If Koufax was truly as good as many people believe, then he should dominate Santana in a career-comparison. Koufax’s career is mainly remembered for six seasons from 1961-1966 in which he was the best pitcher in baseball. Santana has been a starting pitcher for most of six seasons. So, I figured I'd compare Koufax’s six-season run to Santana’s six-year stint as a starter. The best and easiest tools to compare pitchers from different eras are; ERA+, Winning %, Wins, and Cy Young awards. While ERA+ (some may argue that WHIP is better but it’s difficult to compare WHIP without respect to the league average) is probably the best measure, none of the statistics are the "end-all" for evaluating pitchers. Near the end of the post I delve deeper into the pitfalls of using ERA+ to compare different eras.

The results of the comparison between Koufax and Santana were--not-surprisingly--close. While there is no disputing Koufax’s brilliance, there is also no disputing the fact that Santana’s numbers are almost equal. Koufax holds an advantage in every category but it is by a razor-thin margin and sometimes not an advantage at all. Here is a more in-depth comparison of each statistic:

ERA+

Koufax 162
Santana 159

Koufax has the edge but the difference here is virtually negligible. In fact, I am guessing that if ERA+ was only calculated using starters' ERA, Santana may have the edge in this category.

Winning Percentage%

Koufax 73.30
Santana 70.50

Both percentages are astronomical. Koufax again has a slight edge.

K/9

Santana 9.83
Koufax 9.44

WHIP

Koufax .97
Santana 1.01

Koufax appears to have the edge here but WHIP is not weighed for league average like ERA +. There is no question that Santana is pitching in an era with significantly more offensive production. There is no doubt in my mind that Santana holds the edge in this category based on league averages.

Cy Young Awards

Koufax 3
Santana 2

Santana should have won the 2005 AL Cy Young Award. He had more innings and strikeouts than Bartolo Colon and a much better ERA and WHIP. In fact, I’m not sure how any baseball person could have voted Colon over Santana. The numbers weren’t even close. Santana should finish in the top three of the Cy Young voting this year which would give him four top-three finishes in four seasons. Koufax accomplished the same feat.

These numbers are so close that if Santana puts together a phenomenal ’08 campaign, then a comparison of Santana and Koufax might end up in a wash if it isn't already. After piling up all of this info, I had two choices: 1). I could conclude that Santana—being that close to Koufax—is just that close to being the greatest lefty of all-time (or at the very least having the greatest six-year run of all-time), or 2). I could research this a bit further. There is no doubt that Santana is great. But, if he really is the greatest "peak" lefty of all-time—or at least right near the top of the list—then people would be making a bigger deal about him than they are. I just have to think that there have been pitchers that were quite a bit better than Santana—and thus quite a bit better than Koufax.

Since Koufax’s reputation is solely predicated on his six-year run of brilliance, it would stand to reason that his six-year run would have to be considerably better than every other pitcher in baseball history in order for the moniker of “greatest lefty pitcher of all-time” to hold true. If a pitcher had a similar six-year run and combined that with 10 more years of solid pitching then that pitcher would get the edge overall for being equal in brilliance but doing it over a much longer period of time. Since Santana put up such a good fight in a “peak” comparison to Koufax, it became obvious to me that there had to be other pitchers out there who have put up Koufax’s numbers while doing it for a much longer period of time.

So, I decided to do a comparison of Koufax to the greatest left-handed pitchers of all-time in terms of best six-year runs. Since Koufax’s entire reputation is based on that time-frame, then he should have the greatest run of the bunch. There have been many “good” left-handers but there have only been a few “great” ones. For the comparison, I chose Lefty Grove, Warren Spahn, and Randy Johnson along with Koufax and Santana.

Below are the best six-year stretches that I could find for each player:

Grove (’26-’31)
Spahn (’53-’58)
Koufax (’61-’66)
Johnson (’97-’02)
Santana (’02-’07)

Here is how those five pitchers compare:

Winning %

Johnson (‘97-‘02) 74.10% (120-42)
Grove (‘26-‘31) 73.50% (136-49)
Koufax (‘61-66) 73.30% (129-47)
Santana (‘02-‘07) 70.50% (86-36)
Spahn (‘53-‘58) 65.30% (124-66)

ERA+

Johnson (‘97-‘02) 177
Grove (‘26-‘31) 169
Koufax (‘61-66) 162
Santana (‘02-‘07) 159
Spahn (‘53-‘58) 132

Cy Young Awards

Johnson (‘97-‘02) 4
Grove (‘26-‘31) N/A
Koufax (‘61-66) 3
Santana (‘02-‘07) 2
Spahn (‘53-‘58) 1

WHIP

Koufax (‘61-66) .97
Santana (‘02-‘07) 1.01
Johnson (‘97-‘02) 1.07
Spahn (‘53-‘58) 1.16
Grove (‘26-‘31) 1.19

K/9

Johnson (‘97-‘02) 12.33
Santana (‘02-‘07) 9.83
Koufax (‘61-66) 9.44
Grove (‘26-‘31) 6.08
Spahn (‘53-‘58) 4.3


Conclusions:

There isn’t much in the name of conclusive evidence to be found here—and there really never is when doing any sort of player comparison from different eras. However, these comparisons leave me with a few "new" thoughts. First, I don’t think there is any way that Koufax can be considered the greatest left-handed pitcher of all-time by any measure even if we base it entirely on his “prime.” Randy Johnson’s ERA+ over his six-year peak (177) is much better than Koufax’s (162). Johnson’s winning percentage was better and he won more Cy Young Awards. Johnson also had one of the greatest seasons in MLB history to not result in a Cy Young Award. In 1997, he went 20-4 with a 198 ERA+. In fact, that was the best season of his career. So, not only did he win four Cy Young Awards in that six-year stretch, but he also had the greatest year of his career that ironically didn’t result in a Cy Young Award. A Grove/Koufax comparison is much closer although Grove has the edge in both winning percentage and ERA+ so his six-year stretch is at the very least equal to Koufax. While there is no question that Koufax was brilliant, I cannot accept that—even for a brief period of time—he was the best left-handed pitcher in baseball history.


If not Koufax, then who?

In my list of the 50 greatest MLB players of All-Time, I rated Lefty Grove as the best lefty of all-time just ahead of Randy Johnson. I’m starting to think that Johnson has a legitimate claim to the title. First, Randy Johnson’s career Batting Average Against (BAA) is .218. Grove’s is .255. That is a huge difference. Then, consider Johnson’s enormous advantage in K/9 of 10.78 to 5.18. That means Johnson prevented six more players per nine innings from even putting the ball in play. Grove does hold a 148 to 137 edge in ERA+ but using that tool to compare players from vastly different eras can be precarious. ERA+ is a helpful tool but it becomes ambiguous when the league as a whole is mediocre. Grove played in an era with few great pitchers. Johnson played in an era with many great pitchers. There isn’t a pitcher from Grove’s era—other than Grove—with an ERA+ above 130 (min. 1,500 innings pitched). There are six pitchers in Johnson’s era with an ERA+ above 130. The likely result of that scenario would be a higher ERA+ for Grove because his league was littered with poor pitchers and virtually no elite pitchers.

Another factor that would skew Grove’s ERA+--or I should say devalue Johnson’s—is the prevalence of relief “specialists” and “closers” in modern-day baseball. Those pitchers often have the best ERA's in the league and those numbers are factored into ERA+. In fact, relievers collectively have a better ERA than starters in modern-day baseball. I am fairly certain that was not the case in Grove’s era. Relievers are also pitching more innings than ever before which means their lower ERAs are going to have an even bigger impact on the league average hurting modern-day pitchers in the ERA+ category. If Johnson and Grove were compared in ERA+ only using the league average for starters, Johnson may, in fact, have Grove beat in the ERA+ comparison. I am guessing it would be a negligible difference at the very least. Instead, relievers are thrown into the ERA+ making Grove look like the clear winner in that comparison.

Also—and I missed this entirely when I made my Top 50-list—Grove pitched a number of innings in relief over his career. That can significantly slant statistics towards looking better than they should. John Smoltz and Dennis Eckersley are the best examples of this. “Eck” was a run-of-the-mill pitcher as a starter. It wasn’t until he was able to pitch one or two innings at a time that his statistics blew up. Smoltz was always a good pitcher but his statistics also blew up when given the chance to pitch one or two innings at a time. As a result, “Eck” and Smoltz have slightly misleading ERAs at least when compared to other starters. Grove had that same advantage. Johnson has not.

I don’t think it’s clear-cut in either direction. Johnson pitched in the most difficult era of all-time and the era with four of the best pitchers in MLB history. Grove pitched in a difficult era in his own right but likely saw his ERA+ benefit from a league-wide pitching drought. Johnson’s BAA, K/9, and WHIP advantage end up being the deciding factor for me. I believe that Johnson is the greatest lefty of all-time. I won’t argue with anyone who thinks Grove should be given that title. One thing I do think is clear is that Johnson and Grove are clearly the two best lefties in MLB history. Koufax—albeit very good—probably gets overrated at least in the discussion of “greatest lefty of all-time”. Johan Santana is well on his way to cementing his status as one of the five greatest lefties in baseball history.

Active Hall of Fame projections: Outfield

There are 61 outfielders in the Hall of Fame. Obviously, combining three different positions into one artificially inflates the number but even if we break down each position individually, there are more left-fielders, right-fielders, and centerfielders in the Hall of Fame than catchers, second-basemen, and third-basemen. The outfield—regardless of the position—has been historically reserved for run-producers. In fact, the five greatest hitters of all-time (Ruth, Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, and Barry Bonds) played in the outfield. So, it’s no surprise that there are a more than a handful of active outfielders destined for the Hall of Fame as well as a slew of players who have legitimate shots. The interesting thing about there being so many outfielders in the Hall of Fame is that there are so many different “types”. You have super-human offensive production like Babe Ruth all the way to a singles and stolen base guy like Lou Brock. There are so many levels in between those two that you can make a case for almost any player who specializes in just two or three categories as you’ll see from many of my summaries below.

Here are the categories that I will be using to breakdown the candidates and a brief description of each category: The “Lock” and “Likely” categories will be counted as being projected into the Hall of Fame. There won’t be too many “Borderline” candidates but I’ll decide those projections on a case by case basis. I will not count players under 25 regardless of my opinion but I’ll identify players under 25 who seem to be off to excellent starts.

Lock: Barring steroid scandal, will be a Hall of Famer
Likely: Player is on the path based on career progression
Borderline: Pretty close to 50/50; or could make a charge
Not Likely: Almost no chance; would take an unexpected resurgence
Under 25: Players that have a good start to a potential HOF career


Active Hall of Fame Outfielders


Locks (6)

Barry Bonds

Bonds was a “lock” well before steroids came into the picture. I'm not sure how voters will treat suspected steroid users but I'm pretty sure Bonds gets in without much of a hassle. I'm not sure I can say the same about Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro. In my view, McGwire and Palmeiro have just as much claim to the Hall of Fame as Bonds. Bonds has clearly been the better player but all three are “locks” based on career numbers. Since all three have allegedly used steroids, I’m not sure how they can be treated differently. To let Bonds in and keep McGwire and Palmeiro out would be quite hypocritical.

Ken Griffey Jr.

Griffey is obviously a “lock.” Nobody will ever be able to say Griffey’s name again without millions of baseball fans thinking of lost opportunities. He has had a fabulous career but it could have been so much more illustrious if he weren’t such a damn good centerfielder. Those diving catches ended up costing him the title of “Home Run King” among other things. As I wrote last week, Griffey still has a pretty good chance of becoming the all-time Home Run King before A-Rod does. If that happens, and A-Rod then breaks it, the Seattle Mariners will have had the distinction of having the two greatest home run hitters in MLB history play for them at the same time. As if that wasn’t enough, they also had possibly the greatest left-handed pitcher of all-time (The Big Unit) and the greatest DH of all-time. Amazingly, it wasn’t until Griffey, A-Rod, and Randy Johnson left that Seattle set a MLB record with 116 wins while leading the majors in both pitching and hitting. Go figure.

Sammy Sosa

Sosa could be thrown into Palmeiro/McGwire status. There really is no way of knowing how Hall of Fame-voters will view Sosa at this point. He didn’t test positive like Palmeiro or refuse to deny taking steroids like McGwire. He simply faked a significant language barrier. Sadly, he ended up looking the best of the three in front of congress. Sosa is the only player in MLB history with three 60-HR seasons. Over a five-year stretch from 1998-2002, Sosa averaged an unbelievable 58 home runs per season. The most interesting thing about Sosa’s career stats, IMO, is his amazingly low OPS+ for a guy who hit that many home runs. His career OPS+ stands at 128. For comparison’s sake, Ryan Klesko has a career OPS+ of 129. Barring a boycott by Hall of Fame voters, Sosa is a “lock” having put together the greatest stretch of home-run hitting in MLB history.

Manny Ramirez

Man-Ram is one of the greatest hitters who ever lived. His eclectic personality and lazy reputation have probably gotten in the way of receiving his just-do as a hitter. Ramirez is on his way to his 10th straight 100-RBI season (and 12th overall). He has a .313 career batting average. He’ll likely become the first player in MLB history to reach 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, and a .310 batting average. It’s amazing that of all of the legends in baseball history, nobody has ever accomplished that feat. Ramirez is a first-ballot “lock”.

Vladimir Guerrero

After hiding away in Montreal for eight-seasons, Guerrero’s talents are now being recognized on a much larger scale. Along with possessing one of the most devastating right-field arms the game has ever seen, Vlad will likely become the second player in MLB history to reach 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, and a .310 batting average. In fact, he’ll likely become the first player to reach 3,000 hits, 500 home runs and a .320 batting average. It’s not an accident that the player most similar to Guerrero from the age of 23-30 using baseball-reference.com’s player similarity scores is Willie Mays. Vlad is a “lock.”

Ichiro Suzuki

Ichiro is going to waltz into the Hall of Fame with about as much ease as it is for him to reach 200 hits in a season. Ichiro is one injury-free season from setting the record for most consecutive 200-hit seasons (eight). At 33, I don’t think he’s going to stop there. Ichiro does everything that Wade Boggs did but does everything slightly better. He also happens to be a superb outfielder. Ichiro’s game would have been perfect for the dead-ball era but he has managed to be a game-changer in an era befitting the sluggers.

Likely (2)

Andruw Jones

Just to give you an idea of how young Jones was when he started, he was the youngest player in the National League for three years. While Jones’ actual prowess at the plate is nowhere near what his career totals might indicate, he is one of the greatest offense/defense combinations the league has ever seen. His career batting average is .262 and dropping and his OPS+ is a pedestrian 118. Despite what might otherwise seem obvious, Jones is nowhere near the caliber of player that Griffey has been. Nonetheless, Jones may very well reach 600 home runs, 2000 runs, 2000 RBIs, and 3,000 hits. Only Hank Aaron (and Barry Bonds very shortly) has ever accomplished that feat. Jones has to play into his late 30s to remove all doubt. If for some reason he suffers a career-ending injury in the next couple years, his mediocre averages may stick out more. Barring injury, Jones is pretty much a sure-thing.

Gary Sheffield

Unless “Sheff” somehow gets lumped in with Palmeiro and McGwire, he’ll be a “lock.” Sheffield will likely reach 500 home runs next season and has a pretty good shot at 3,000 career hits. Combine that with a .297 career batting average, a 145 OPS+, and a reputation as the most feared hitter in the game, and Sheff’s case for the Hall of Fame is a no-doubter.


Borderline (1)

Carl Crawford

Crawford is stuck between Rickey Henderson and Ichiro on the baseball evolutionary chart. He sacrifices some of Ichiro’s average for a little of Henderson’s power. He became an everyday player at the age of 21 which will go a long way in padding his career triple, stolen base, and hit totals. I’m going to guess that whether Crawford makes the HOF or not depends entirely on whether he reaches 3,000 career hits. Barring injury, that will happen relatively early (mid to late 30s) in his career. It also wouldn't hurt to get out of Tampa.

Juan Pierre

Baseball fans better start preparing themselves for Juan Pierre’s induction speech because it very well could happen. Perception in baseball is often driven by statistics. If you reach certain career totals, you make the Hall of Fame. That is how things have gone for decades. If that thinking doesn’t change, then Pierre will make it. His numbers are almost an exact-replica of Lou Brock’s. Pierre should reach 3,000 hits. He has a career batting average above .300. He averages 50 stolen bases a year. He walks more than he strikes out. The problem with all of that is that Pierre is hardly a Hall of Fame-caliber player. Pierre’s OBP is .347 and dropping fast. That just doesn’t cut it for a leadoff man. While it would probably be easier to project Pierre into the Hall of Fame, I’m going to predict that someone will reach 3,000 hits and not get into the Hall of Fame before Pierre becomes eligible. There are a number of players who could do it—I’ll have a post about this soon—and I think the odds are that someone will. If that happens, Pierre loses his “3,000-hits” leverage.

Carlos Beltran

Beltran experienced a bit of an Abreu-like dropoff in 2005 but bounced back nicely in 2006 and 2007 with some pretty good power-numbers. Beltran hasn’t turned into the player that many people thought he would become when he was tearing up the league with the Royals in his early twenties. His power numbers are up a bit from back then but I can’t say that he is a more productive player. Based on the way his career has gone thus far, Beltran is not a Hall of Famer. I am surprised at how unmoving his career has been so far. He is a very good player but doesn’t appear to be in the elite class.

Matt Holliday

Holliday is a nice, young player. He is working on his second straight season of a .320 average, 30 home runs, 100 RBIs, and 100 runs. Those are two elite seasons. He certainly helped his reputation by winning the 2007 Home-Run Derby but he’ll need to produce for many years to come to get into the Hall of Fame conversation.

Adam Dunn

I think Adam Dunn is the Juan Pierre of power-hitters. Pierre is a mediocre leadoff-hitter except that he excels in hits and stolen bases. Dunn is a mediocre power-hitter but excels in home runs and walks. If Dunn doesn’t improve his batting average or OPS+ over the remainder of his career, he might not get into the Hall of Fame even with 500 home runs. Dunn and Pierre will be perfect case-studies for the automatic status of both 500 home-runs and 3,000 hits. Dunn has never finished in the top 25 of the MVP voting which is saying something considering he is working on his fourth-straight 40 home run season. Dunn has a pretty good chance of becoming the all-time leader in career strikeouts. He’ll have to play until he’s 40 to get close to that record, though. A-Rod already has his eyes set on that mark.

Jason Bay

Jason Bay is off to a pretty good start. Bay and Matt Holliday seem to be on the same path. Both are making a habit of putting together 30 HR/100 RBI/100 Run seasons. Neither has entered elite power-hitter status yet. As of now, these guys look to be very good baseball players without the high-end run-producing seasons. If that changes, they’ll start to look good for the Hall of Fame.

Luis Gonzalez

“Gonzo” is quietly putting together career statistics that are going to be hard to ignore. He just might play long enough to reach 3,000 hits (it would take three more seasons as an everyday player). He’ll likely finish with 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBIs. He’ll also likely reach 600 doubles. There has never been a player kept out of the Hall of Fame with 600 career doubles. There has never been a player kept out of the Hall of Fame with 3,000 hits. “Gonzo” could be the first in both categories to be kept out. Regardless, I don’t believe Gonzalez has been up to the caliber of the elite hitters of his generation.

Magglio Ordonez

I’m not sure how much baseball “Mags” has left in him. It’s not too late for a charge but it would take a spectacular effort over the next seven or eight years. Ordonez has a career batting average of .310. That is a pretty substantial mark to be carrying around. Mags was on a good “Hall of Fame” pace before suffering a devastating knee injury that essentially stole two seasons. If Mags can put together four more seasons similar to what he has put up in ’07 and follow that up with a few solid run-producing seasons, he just might have a chance of making it. That would take some work, though.


Not Likely

Jim Edmonds

Edmonds has been a heck of a player. In fact, I think Edmonds will go down as one of the 50 best players to not make the Hall of Fame. He’ll likely finish with 400+ home runs with a very respectable OPS+ of 135. He is one of the great defensive centerfielders the game has ever seen. He just wasn’t a dominating player and his relatively late start—he didn’t become an everyday player until 25—made it impossible to reach some of the bigger milestones.

Bobby Abreu

Five years ago, Abreu looked about as close to a sure-thing as a young player can be. He was the epitome of a five-tool player. In 2004, he hit over .300 with 30+ homers, 100+ RBIs, 100+ runs, 40 SB’s and 120+ BBs. In fact, his yearly averages from 2000-2005 resembled his 2004 campaign. Then, he won the Home-Run Derby at Comerica Park and he’s never been the same. Despite being a productive player for a number of years, Abreu never finished in the top 10 of the MVP voting. Considering he’s 33 and appears to be on the downside of his career, I’m not sure that’s ever going to change. Abreu has been good but disappointingly unspectacular.

Johnny Damon

Damon will only make the Hall of Fame if he reaches 3,000 hits. Although, I don’t think that would even guarantee him a spot. I am convinced that we will see a player in the next 15 years who reaches 3,000 hits without getting into the Hall of Fame. Damon could be that guy. Damon’s career OPS+ is 103. That means he has only been 3% better than the average player in baseball throughout his career. Since Damon’s defense is average at best, his offense has to carry his case for Cooperstown. A leadoff guy doesn’t necessarily need a great OPS to be effective. A good on-base percentage is often enough. Unfortunately, Damon’s OBP is merely average for a leadoff hitter at .353. He has never finished in the top ten of the MVP voting. He has been a solid major leaguer throughout his career but solid doesn’t cut it for the Hall of Fame.
Vernon Wells

Wells still has some time to blow-up but, as of right now, he isn’t even close to a Hall of Fame player. His OPS+ is terrible for a power-hitter at 109. He strikes-out twice as many times as he walks. It is possible that Wells just hasn’t put it all together yet but he’ll need to explode for a 10-season binge just to get back into the conversation.

Torii Hunter

Hunter has every bit of a gripe to make the Hall of Fame as Omar Vizquel. In fact, I would say that Hunter has a better case for the Hall of Fame. Hunter is possibly the greatest defensive-centerfielder who ever lived (Mays, Griffey, DiMaggio, Andrew Jones all have legitimate arguments). I don’t think there’s any doubt that centerfield is significantly more difficult to play than second base. Hunter is every bit Vizquel’s equal at a position that’s more difficult to play. Centerfield—like second base—is not known for offensive production yet Hunter is a much better hitter than Vizquel. As much as I can appreciate his defensive prowess, I don’t think Hunter is really that close at all to being a Hall of Famer. He should pay attention to Vizquel, though. If Vizquel makes it, then Hunter should get his acceptance speech ready.

Moises Alou

Alou has been a solid hitter for a long time. He’ll probably end up being one of the 100 best players to not make the Hall of Fame. His chances are pretty much stuck on 0%.

Garrett Anderson

I don’t think there is anyone out there who would argue that Garrett Anderson will make the Hall of Fame. However, I am going to make that argument right now. No player has ever been kept out of the Hall of Fame with 3,000 career hits. Anderson will reach 3,000 hits if he plays until he’s 40. So, if Anderson plays until he’s 40 (which every good hitter pretty much does these days), then Anderson will make the Hall of Fame. That sounds like a pretty good argument. However, there is a first for everything. If he reaches 3,000 hits, I think Anderson will be the first player kept out of the HOF having reached that milestone. There is no question that Anderson has been a very good player. He just hasn’t been a Hall of Famer.

Brian Giles

I have a question: what happened to Brian Giles’ power? He averaged 37 home runs for four-seasons from 2000-2003. He went 20, 23, 15, and 14 in the next four seasons, respectively. Then, in 2007, he hit two home runs in his first 282 at-bats! It’s not like Giles was old in 2004 when his power started to decline. He was 33. Giles had an unbelievable power surge (at least relative to what he had been producing) this past week when he hit five home runs in three games. Where has that been? How does that kind of power just disappear?

Jermaine Dye

Dye’s career has been hampered by injuries. He has had some pretty solid seasons but he isn’t anywhere close to having the career numbers to merit election to the Hall of Fame.

Pat Burrell

Burrell’s similarity scores on baseball-reference.com features a who’s who of short-term sluggers from the past. Among the memorable names are; Pete Incaviglia, Phil Plantier, Dean Palmer, Henry Rodriguez (O-Henry!), Danny Tartabull, Richard Hidalgo, and Glenn Davis. Burrell has been a productive player and is still relatively young at 30. Unfortunately for him, he has about as good of a chance of making the HOF as the players I just listed.


Under 25 to keep an eye on:

Grady Sizemore

Sizemore turned 25 earlier this month but I’m going to keep him in this category. In fact, the time I do this—whenever that may be—I’ll probably only project players 27 or older with a few exceptions. Sizemore is every bit as good as Carl Crawford but he has more power. If Sizemore stays healthy, I think there’s a 75% chance he makes the Hall of Fame.


Final Outfield Projections (9)

Barry Bonds
Ken Griffey Jr.
Sammy Sosa
Manny Ramirez
Vladimir Guerrero
Ichiro Suzuki
Andruw Jones
Gary Sheffield
Carl Crawford

Great week to be a Tigers fan

To say the Tigers have struggled lately would be an understatement. The Tigers are 7-15 in their last 22 games and many of those losses were of the blowout variety. Nobody knows if the “wheels are gong to come off” for good or if the Tigers are going to “right the ship” in time to make the playoffs. It’s a tenuous time to be a Tigers fan but it isn’t all bad. In fact, this week might be the most exciting week of the season. There are a bunch of things going on right now—some of it on the field but most of it off the field—worth getting psyched about. Here is all the stuff going on with the Tigers just this week alone…

1). Maybin is one step closer.

Uber-prospect Cameron Maybin is one step closer to patrolling the outfield in Detroit. He was promoted, as expected, from Lakeland (A+) to Erie (AA). The Tigers had planned on moving him up towards the end of the season to get him used to a much more competitive league for next season. Maybin recently recovered from a shoulder injury that kept him out for a month and was quickly promoted upon returning. In 83 games at Lakeland, Maybin fared pretty well. He hit .304 with a respectable OPS of .879. Although he led the team in strikeouts, he also led the team in walks. He also managed to steal 25 bases. He put together the type of all-around season that would do justice to his reputation as a five-tool player. His power numbers weren’t where many expected but he had a pretty good season in Lakeland nonetheless. Maybin has quickly put to rest any concerns that AA ball would be a problem for him. He homered in each of his first three games and is hitting a sizzling .462 in four games. Those numbers will obviously tail off but it’s great to see him one step away from the big leagues.

2). Porcello and Co. are in the fold.

The Tigers have reached deals with their top prospects from the 2007 draft. Both are 18. Both are 6'5. And both are going to "blow the doors off" the minors. There were more than a few analysts that predicted the Tigers and Rick Porcello would not come to a deal before the August 15th deadline. Those analysts obviously don’t know Dave Dombrowski or his M.O. The Tigers knew they were going to sign Porcello when they drafted him and anyone who is familiar with Dombrowski knew it too. You don’t give a player the largest contract ever given to a High Schooler on a whim. Porcello has Josh Beckett-type talent and the Tigers stole him. He is in the fold and—like Andrew Miller—he will be on the fast track to the majors. He’ll likely destroy the minors next season and barring an injury (please don't let this happen), make his MLB debut in 2009. The Tigers also signed Casey Crosby who was slotted to go within the first two rounds before dropping for the same reason that Porcello dropped. The Tigers dished out the dough and now have two premier prospects to show for it. I love seeing all this pitching in the minors but sooner or later, some of that pitching will need to get shipped off to find a long-term, power-hitting first baseman, a catcher, and a left-fielder.


3). Zumaya rehab start

Joel Zumaya—right in line with the guarantee that he made when he first injured his finger—is on schedule to return in August. He pitched 2/3 of an inning—or 18 pitches—at Toledo (AAA) in his first action since May 1st. He topped out at 94 MPH which isn’t bad considering he hasn’t thrown a “live” pitch in more than three months. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tigers bullpen shave two full runs off its ERA with the return of Zumaya. Things have been so bad that even the return of Fernando Rodney might shave off a run. I have to give Rodney credit for striking out three in a row after giving up a lead-off double in the bottom of the ninth last night. That was huge. In more Zumaya news, Richard Zumaya—the Tigers' 43rd draft pick in May and Joel’s younger brother—has 12 strike outs and a 1.42 ERA in 12 innings with the GCL Tigers.

4). Jurrjens MLB debut

The Tigers are set to debut another in a long line of talented prospects tomorrow in the final game of the two-game series against Cleveland. We’ve seen Andrew Miller, Virgil Vasquez, Jordan Tata, and Eulogia De La Cruz make their MLB debuts this season. Now, we're going to see Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens is more highly-touted than all of the above with the exception of Miller. Jurrjens’ debut will be especially intriguing to Tigers fans who have followed his rise through the Tigers minor league system. He started in the organization in 2003 as a 17-year old. Four years later, he’s making his MLB debut in the thick of a pennant race. I have no delusions that Jurrjens will be able to duplicate his minor league success immediately. Virgil Vasquez has been a perfect example of a). not expecting too much in a MLB debut and b). not jumping to conclusions after one start. It’ll just be nice to see Jurrjens pitch for the first time. And to think--if we believe reports out of Pittsburgh, Jurrjens was almost traded for Jack Wilson at the trade deadline. Who let Randy Smith back in the building?

5). Kenny should be back soon.

Kenny Rogers is apparently optimistic about returning to the rotation fairly soon. He was encouraged by news that his elbow inflammation appears to be healing. It is doubtful that he’ll be back to 100% at any time this season but an effective Kenny Rogers is the difference between possibly missing the playoffs (see; ’07) and reaching the World Series (see; ’06).


6). Tigers are in Cleveland

The Tigers are playing the most important, two-game, August series that you’ll ever see. The Tigers are in Cleveland for a first-place standoff. Since the Tigers took game one with fantastic pitching all-the-way around and an offensive explosion in the tenth inning, they are guaranteed to be in first place for at least two more days. Pennant races past April were vacant in Detroit for the last 15 years. This is what we've been waiting for!

Active Hall of Fame Projections: Third Base

There are fewer third basemen in the MLB Hall of Fame than any other position. Only 10 major leaguers have been given the ultimate individual endorsement as a third baseman in 100+ years (three Negro leaguers have also been inducted). That number will likely only increase by one over the next 20 years. I don’t know for certain why the position has seen so few Hall of Famers but I’m guessing it has to do with the grueling nature of the position. The nightly beatings that third basemen endure must shorten the average career at that position. It’s also possible that the best defenders/craziest players get placed at third base and usually the best defenders/craziest players are not also the best hitters. Even when a team does come upon a player that excels in both areas, injuries are almost always an issue. One only needs to look at the best active third basemen and their injury histories to see how taxing the position can be. Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Troy Glaus, Eric Chavez, and Aramis Ramirez seemingly spend time on the DL every season. Rolen and Glaus have seen their Hall of Fame odds go from “very likely” to questionable at best because of said injuries. There are three third basemen under the age of 25 that might be as good as Chipper Jones or better. If they can stay healthy, they’ll all be gunning for Cooperstown.

Here are the categories that I will be using to breakdown the candidates and a brief description of each category: The “Lock” and “Likely” categories will be counted as being projected into the Hall of Fame. There won’t be too many “Borderline” candidates but I’ll decide those projections on a case by case basis. I will not count players under 25 regardless of my opinion but I’ll identify players under 25 who seem to be off to excellent starts.

Lock: Barring steroid scandal, will be a Hall of Famer
Likely: Player is on the path based on career progression
Borderline: Pretty close to 50/50; or could make a charge
Not Likely: Almost no chance; would take an unexpected resurgence
Under 25: Players that have a good start to a potential HOF career


Active Hall of Fame Third Basemen


Likely (1)

Chipper Jones

I could probably make an argument that Chipper Jones is a “lock” but I’ll just keep him in the “likely” category. Just consider “likely” to mean 95% in this instance. Jones—when healthy—has been a run-producing machine. He had eight-straight 100-RBI seasons from ’96-‘03. He has hit over .300 in nine of his 13 full seasons. He won the NL MVP in 1999. He has a good shot at 500 Home Runs and 3,000 hits which would make him the first third baseman to accomplish that feat. He has more career walks than strikeouts and an OPS+ of 144. His career numbers would be even more impressive if he hadn’t missed close to 120 games due to injury over the last four seasons. If he can stay healthy for five seasons—which is asking quite a bit—he’ll be knocking on the door of all sorts of milestones.


Borderline

Scott Rolen

At 29, Rolen was well on his way to securing Hall of Fame-status. Three years and a bunch of injuries later and things don’t look so certain. Rolen still has a fine resume but he’ll need to get back to his pre-2005 offensive form that saw him produce five 100-RBI seasons before the age of 30. If Rolen can’t regain that sort of production, then his fate may be similar to Nomar Garciaparra’s. Both players were clearly good enough in their primes but neither has managed to stay healthy. Rolen is recognized as one of the great defensive third basemen of all-time which will help his cause if it’s close. Rolen has only finished in the top 15 in MVP voting once in his 11 full-seasons. A player on his way to Cooperstown should have a better showing than that. Rolen probably has a 33% chance of making it but I can’t project him in on that percentage.

Troy Glaus

At 23, Glaus hit 47 HRs with 102 RBIs. At 24, he hit 41 HRs with 108 RBIs. At 25, he hit 30 HRs with 111 RBIs. Based on those numbers alone, one would have to consider Glaus at the time to be a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame if he stayed healthy. Unfortunately, he did not stay healthy. He missed more than half of his team’s games over the 2003 and 2004 seasons. He bounced back with two very solid efforts in 2005 (37 HR/97 RBI) and 2006 (38 HR/104 RBI) but has once again suffered injuries in 2007. His career batting average (.253) and OPS+ (119) are relatively weak. With 272 HRs, Glaus has an outside shot at 500 for his career. However, with mediocre numbers everywhere else, I’m not sure that would even get him in.
Borderline

Eric Chavez

Chavez is basically Rolen circa-2004. In fact, their similarities are remarkable. Like I mentioned above, when Rolen was 29, it looked like he had a very good shot at making it to Cooperstown. Considering the likeness, I have to say Chavez has a decent chance as well. Chavez is regarded as one of the great defensive third basemen in MLB history. He has seven-straight seasons of 22+ HRs. He has four 100-RBI seasons. The problem with Chavez comes from not having any high-end seasons offensively. He has only finished in the top 15 in MVP voting once in nine seasons. He has never scored 100 runs or hit .300 in a full season. I’m willing to give Chavez a fighter’s chance but at this point, I have to project him “out.”


Not Likely

Aramis Ramirez

Ramirez is all over the map in terms of production. He is just as likely to hit .310 with 30 HRs and 110 RBIs as he is to hit .272 with 22 HRs and 90 RBIs. That sort of production—even though it is somewhat inconsistent—is nothing to scoff at. The problem is that Ramirez, like Chavez, doesn’t have the high-end seasons to be considered among the elite to ever play the position. He has never scored more than 100 runs in a season. He has never walked more than 50 times in a season. His career OPS+ is an underwhelming 111. He does have four100-RBI seasons and four 30+ HR-seasons. He is also relatively young at 29. It is too early to be certain but I don’t see Ramirez ever having the kind of production that will garner a selection to Cooperstown.

Adrian Beltre

Beltre isn’t a Hall of Fame-caliber player in any regard or by any measure. However, at 28, he is just about half way to 3,000 hits. He would only have to average 114 hits per season over the next 14 years to reach that mark. It would almost be impossible to not average that many hits person if he does play that long. So, the question is, will Beltre play until he’s 42? Beltre has a very good shot at becoming the first player in MLB history to reach 3,000 hits without being voted into the Hall of Fame. I predict that will happen.

Under 25 to keep an eye on:

Miguel Cabrera

Per my rules, Cabrera is not eligible to be projected into the Hall of Fame. He has to fall under the “Under 25 to look out for” category. But, I think there is a very good chance that Cabrera will be recognized as the greatest offensive third baseman in MLB history by the time his career is over. However, it would not shock me if he eventually moved to another position at some point. Only 24 years-old, Cabrera is working on his fourth-straight 100-RBI season. His career batting average is .315 and rising rapidly. He has finished fifth in the NL MVP voting in each of the last two years and will likely fare better in the ’07 voting—possibly even winning it. Using Baseball-Reference.com’s player similarity scores, Cabrera—through the age of 23—compares most favorably to Hank Aaron.

David Wright

If Miguel Cabrera is a 10 on a scale of 1-10 for third basemen, then Wright is a 9.5. Wright, like Cabrera is only 24 (and thus not eligible to be projected into the Hall of Fame per my rules) and is working on his third-straight 25+ HR/100-RBI season. His OPS+ is a sizzling 135 and he sports a .305 career average. Wright started early enough that he’ll likely pile up massive career numbers on his way to Cooperstown.

Ryan Braun

Braun’s offensive statistics for ’07 are ridiculous. Perhaps nobody in MLB history has started a career more impressively. In just 69 games (all in ‘07), Braun has 22 home runs, 59 RBIs, a .346 batting average and a 169 OPS+. While 69-game mark is a little early to start talking about the Hall of Fame, it is not too early to put him on the list of players to watch under 25.

Final Projected Third Basemen (1)

Chipper Jones