Last week, Michigan St. was spiraling out of control with two home games against Wisconsin and Indiana staring it in the face. Two victories later and MSU isn’t only a lock for the NCAA Tournament but it could end up with a five or six seed. One week can make all the difference. Just ask San Diego St. and Drexel. Those teams were out of the at-large discussion until a number of major conference teams went into the tank. San Diego St. might not seem like a typical at-large selection but if Air Force, UNLV and BYU are tournament teams (as most agree that they are), then San Diego St. is a tournament team, too.
One thing I didn’t realize until after I finalized this week’s projections was that the SEC and Big XII only have four bids each. I don’t have a single team from the SEC West. I don’t think the SEC has much of a chance to get a fifth team unless Alabama wins its last two conference games and makes it far into the SEC Tournament. The Big XII could get five but that is the most since the loser of the OSU/KSU game will be out of luck. The mid-major haters will be in full effect if the Mountain West gets as many bids (four) as the SEC and Big XII as I have projected. The good news is that, other than Billy Packer, I don’t think there are many mid-major haters out there.
My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what it is going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
Changes from last week:
In: Michigan State, San Diego St., Syracuse, and Drexel
Out: Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma St., and Alabama
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Georgetown
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Ohio St.
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial Old Dominion
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Michigan St.
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Maryland
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large BYU
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Louisville
42 At-Large Drexel
43 At-Large San Diego St.
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Pittsburgh
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Syracuse
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Wisconsin
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton
My projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.
The last five teams in the tourney right now:
1. San Diego St.
RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 71
SOS: 61
W/L: 18-8
Record vs. RPI100: 3-5
Quality wins: California, Air Force, BYU, and UNLV
Bad losses: @ Western Michigan, Wyoming and @ Wyoming
San Diego St. blindsided me. Not once in the previous five weeks did I even mention San Diego St. To be fair, the Aztecs were 11-7 with virtually no wins of note five weeks ago. Since that time, SDSU has gone 8-1 with victories over three teams in the RPI 25. The Aztecs have also seen their RPI skyrocket to 46. With two winnable games remaining and many of the big conference teams beating each other up, that number will likely rise into the 30s before Selection Sunday. If SDSU loses either of its last two games (@ Utah, and TCU), then it’ll be on the outside looking in.
2. Syracuse
RPI rating: 53
Pomeroy rating: 42
SOS: 59
W/L: 20-8
Record vs. RPI50: 2-5
Quality wins: Hofstra, @ Marquette, Villanova, and @ Providence
Bad losses: Wichita St., @ St. John’s, and @ UCONN
If Syracuse can get to 10 wins in the Big East, I think it’ll be in (assuming no conference tournament upsets). The ‘Cuse have a better resume than Kansas St. and Alabama. A comparison between Oklahoma St. and Syracuse is very close with OSU having won in NY over Syracuse early in the season. That win becomes moot if OSU doesn’t win out to get to 8-8 in the Big XII. To get to 10-6 in the Big East, Syracuse will have to either win at Georgetown or beat Villanova at home. Both will be a tall order but Jim Boeheim’s teams have played very well late in the season over the last few years. I think Syracuse will take one of those games.
3. Drexel
RPI rating: 53
Pomeroy rating: 42
SOS: 98
W/L: 21-7
Record vs. RPI50: 2-2
Quality wins: @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Hofstra, @ Creighton
Bad losses: @ Pennsylvania, @ Rider, and @ William & Mary
Drexel has snuck up the RPI very quickly over the last two weeks. Winning five of six including at Creighton in a Bracket Buster showdown will have that effect. Syracuse’s renaissance has actually helped Drexel’s resume. The Dragons can boast two wins on the road against two possible Big East at-large selections. Drexel also has non-conference wins over three other teams in the RPI 100 (Toledo, St. Joseph’s, and Vermont). Drexel has the most road wins in college basketball. Only an early exit in the CAA conference tournament would boot Drexel from an automatic bid.
4. Purdue
RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 38
SOS: 30
W/L: 18-10
Record vs. RPI50: 4-5
Quality wins: Virginia, DePaul (neutral), Illinois, Michigan St. and Indiana
Bad losses: @ Indiana St. and @ Minnesota
Purdue’s relatively weak RPI is probably due to the fact that it had the luxury of playing Penn St., Northwestern, and Minnesota a total of six times. Throw in the fact that Purdue only had to play Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan St. once each, and you have, quite possibly, the weakest Big Ten schedule of all-time. Still, Purdue is 3-1 against Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan St. which are all in line for at-large selections. Purdue also has an impressive slate of non-conference wins against Virginia, DePaul, Missouri, and Oklahoma. The latter two aren’t going to blow anyone away but the collection of non-conference wins is better than most bubble teams. As long as Purdue wins its last two conference games (Minnesota and Northwestern) then it will be heading to the NCAA Tournament.
5. West Virginia
RPI rating: 57
Pomeroy rating: 33
SOS: 108
W/L: 19-7
Record vs. RPI50: 2-4
Quality wins: Villanova, DePaul, and UCLA
Bad losses: @ Cincinnati
Of all of the at-large teams that I have projected in the NCAA Tournament, West Virginia has, by far, the lowest RPI and worst collection of quality wins. I’m not convinced that most people are aware of how bad WVU’s resume is as of right now. The Mountaineers will likely finish 9-7 in the Big East with an RPI in the 50s. That will lead to an uncomfortable Selection Sunday for John Beilein and Co. but I think WVU’s perception will be enough for an at-large bid.
On the outside looking in:
1. Oklahoma St.
RPI rating: 50
Pomeroy rating: 69
SOS: 39
W/L: 18-9
Record vs. RPI50: 4-6
Quality wins: Missouri St. (neutral), Syracuse (neutral), Pittsburgh, Texas, and Texas Tech
Bad losses: @ Colorado, @ Oklahoma, and Missouri
Other than a better conference record, I’m not sure how West Virginia gets in over Oklahoma St. OSU has a vastly more impressive list of victims. WVU would be essentially benefiting from playing a much weaker schedule. Granted, Oklahoma St. has struggled as of late but should it get its conference record to 8-8 (very possible), then I think OSU deserves to be in over WVU.
2. Kansas St.
RPI rating: 55
Pomeroy rating: 51
SOS: 94
W/L: 20-9
Record vs. RPI50: 2-5
Quality wins: USC (neutral) and @ Texas
Bad losses: @ Nebraska, @ Colorado St., and @ New Mexico
Kansas St. could become the first team in major conference history to win 11 conference games and not make the NCAA Tournament. KSU had the good fortune of playing Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech once each. KSU has one of the worst strength of schedules of any major conference team. Eight of its nine conference wins have come against Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa St., Baylor and Colorado. That doesn’t mean that KSU won’t get in with 11 conference wins. Anything is possible at this point. I do feel confident saying that the loser of the KSU/OSU game will be out of the running for a bid.
3. Alabama
RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 55
SOS: 49
W/L: 19-9
Record vs. RPI50: 2-4
Quality wins: Xavier (neutral), Georgia and Kentucky
Bad losses: @ Auburn, @ Mississippi, and Auburn
Alabama has had plenty of chances to clinch an at-large bid but has failed miserably against poor competition. This team doesn’t deserve a bid based on its resume thus far. It has one of the weakest collections of quality wins of any team in college basketball. In fact, it only has two wins over teams that I have making the tournament. That is a terrible total. It must win its last two conference games just to get to 8-8 in the conference. A trip to the SEC Championship game is pretty much the only thing that can save the Crimson Tide.
4. Bradley
RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 62
SOS: 46
W/L: 19-11
Record vs. RPI50: 1-7
Quality wins: S. Illinois and VCU
Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech
Bradley might end up being the highest rated team in the RPI left out of the tournament. Bradley is nowhere near as qualified as last year’s highest rated team (Missouri St.) left out of the tournament. Bradley went 0-4 against Missouri St. and Creighton. It lost by wide margins to Michigan St. and Illinois. Putting the RPI aside for a moment, I don’t see anything from Bradley’s schedule that indicates it is a tournament-worthy team. A trip to the MVC finals could change that but Bradley is probably the team that has the least amount of opportunity to make an impression of all bubble teams before Selection Sunday.
5. Georgia
RPI rating: 52
Pomeroy rating: 39
SOS: 20
W/L: 16-10
Record vs. RPI50: 2-7
Quality wins: Vanderbilt and Kentucky
Bad losses: Western Kentucky and @ Mississippi
Georgia has two games left—one against Tennessee and one against Kentucky. If Georgia wins both, it will be in the tournament. If it loses both, it will be out of the tournament. If it splits, it will be the bubble team of all bubble teams.
7. DePaul
8. Iowa
9. VCU
Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament
#41 Clemson
#43 Alabama
#45 Bradley
#48 Florida St.
#50 Oklahoma St.
#51 Georgia Tech
#52 Georgia
#54 Michigan
#55 Kansas St.
#58 Massachusetts
Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections
#57 West Virginia
#53 Syracuse
#49 USC
#47 Purdue
#46 San Diego St.
#44 Texas Tech
#42 Drexel
#40 Stanford
#39 Louisville
#38 Virginia
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (6)
UNC
Duke
BC
Virginia
Va. Tech
Maryland
Big East (8)
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Louisville
Syracuse
SEC (4)
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Pac-10 (6)
UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford
Big XII (4)
Kansas
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas
Big Ten (6)
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
Michigan St.
MVC (3)
Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton
MWC (4)
Air Force
UNLV
BYU
San Diego St.
CAA (2)
Old Dominion
Drexel
Six Degrees of Separation NCAA Basketball Style
I started wondering the other night how many degrees the worst team in the RPI is from the best team in terms of a common opponent link. Obviously, the difference in talent is huge. But, with 336 D-1 basketball teams playing 30+ games per season, there is bound to be a short separation from worst to best I researched this extraordinary waste of time back to 2001. I would have done it for '99 and '00 but it’s very difficult to play this game when the worst team has zero wins. I chose Florida for 2007 for no other reason than I think Florida is the best team. It remains to be seen which team will finish number one in the RPI for 2007.
2007
N. Colorado over N. Arizona
N. Arizona over San Fran
San Fran over Loyola Maramount
Loyola Maramount over Oral Roberts
Oral Roberts over Kansas
Kansas over Florida
2006
Prarie View A&M over Alabama St.
Alabama St. over S. Alabama
S. Alabama over Houston
Houston over LSU
LSU over West Virginia
West Virginia over Georgetown
Georgetown over Duke
2005
Maryland East Shore over MD Baltimore County
MD Baltimore County over Delaware
Delaware over Drexel
Drexel over St. Joseph's
St. Joseph's over Davidson
Davidson over Missouri
Missouri over Kansas
2004
Arkansas Pine Bluff over Alabama St.
Alabama St. over Texas Southern
Texas Southern over Mississippi Valley St.
Mississippi Valley St. over Northwestern
Northwestern over Purdue
Purdue over Duke
2003
Morris Brown over Lipscomb
Lipscomb over NO
NO over Tulane
Tulane over Ga. Tech
Ga. Tech over Virginia
Virginia over Kentucky
2002
Liberty over Radford
Radford over NC Wilmington
NC Wilmington over Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) over Ball St.
Ball St. over Kansas
2001
Arkansas Pine Bluff over MVSU
MVSU over Alabama St.
Alabama St. over S. Alabama
S. Alabama over Marquette
Marquette over Cincy
Cincy over Clemson
Clemson over NC
NC over Duke
Monday, February 26, 2007
Friday, February 23, 2007
Joe D's Darko Redemption
I recently read an article on ESPN.com by LZ Granderson about how his soul was ripped out of his body the day the Pistons drafted Darko Milicic. Or maybe it was just slowly ripped out over the last two years after being witness to D-Wade, Melo, and Chris Bosh take over the league. The Pistons could’ve had anyone other than LeBron but instead took the tried and not true “European big-man” route. Before I get any further into this, I want to remind everyone that nobody had a problem with the Pistons taking Darko at the time. In fact, I remember there was some talk in the months leading up to the draft that some teams around the league would have taken Darko over LeBron. Whether that was an attempt to scare Cleveland out of taking LeBron is unknown. Nonetheless, the Darko pick only became a bad pick after he failed to garner playing time which is something that Joe Dumars said he wasn’t going to get when he drafted him. As a result, the Darko experiment never had a chance of working in the first place. Nobody knew if Darko was good when he was drafted and, believe it or not, nobody knew if he was good when he was traded to Orlando. Joe Dumars failed to follow through with his own plan. He mortgaged the future on a plan that he gave up on. That is, by far, the biggest criticism I have of Dumars’ tenure in Detroit. That decision cost the Pistons Mehmet Okur and Wade/Anthony/Bosh. Reading that last sentence makes me sick to my stomach.
While I don’t necessarily blame Joe D for drafting Darko, I certainly blame him for the way he botched the Darko experiment. That said, Joe D has a chance to make amends. In his article, Granderson forecasts a “cruel” future for the franchise because of the Darko pick. While I can understand his frustrations, I think he has failed to adequately portray the situation. The verdict is not in on the whole Darko thing, yet. Sure, it is possible that nothing will ever come of Detroit’s second overall pick in the 2003 draft (AKA Darko Milicic) but Joe D salvaged a draft pick when he traded Darko to Orlando. So the Darko pick is actually still sitting on some piece of paper in Joe D’s office in the form of Orlando’s top-five protected 2007 first round draft pick. That pick may end up being Joe D’s salvation.
Orlando is tanking at the right time.
While Dwight Howard is a freak of nature, the rest of the Orlando Magic is not. That draft pick is looking a whole lot better for the Pistons than it did two weeks into the season when Orlando had the best record in the Eastern Conference. Orlando stands at 27-28 with a brutal schedule to finish out the season. I went through the rest of Orlando’s games and guesstimated the wins and losses. I can’t see the Magic finishing any better than 37-45. That equates to a 10-17 record from here on out. That record is only one win off of Orlando’s total from last season which garnered the 11th pick in the draft. I went through the prospective lottery teams for this season and guesstimated that Orlando will end up with the 12th pick in the draft assuming it finishes at 37-45. As long as the Magic doesn’t win the NBA Draft lottery (the pick is top-five protected) the Pistons can reasonably expect Orlando’s pick to fall someplace around 10-12. If Orlando tanks it even worse than I’ve projected, then the pick could be a little better.
The Package
Over the past few seasons, the Pistons have actually picked up two valuable commodities in the name of young talent. Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson have considerable trade appeal around the league. In Maxiell’s limited minutes, he has shown tremendous athleticism. He has a fairly good array of offensive moves and has improved considerably in the last two years. Johnson is considered an “untouchable” by the Pistons brass. Considering the age of the frontcourt, I think it would be wise to keep Johnson in that “untouchable” class. If the Pistons aren’t going to entertain offers for Johnson, then they have no reason to do the same with Maxiell.
This is all leading up to one of the most important off-season decisions the Pistons have had in years. It is important because it has a chance to make or break the future. If Joe D can’t parlay the Orlando pick into something big, then the Darko experiment will officially go down as one of the biggest disasters in NBA history—a distinction that I won't give it quite yet because of the technicality that is Orlando’s 2007 first round draft pick. Three years from now, the Pistons will be without Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Chris Webber, and Antonio McDyess. Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton will not be enough to keep the Pistons in championship form. Without the addition of a star player or two, the future may be as bleak as Granderson forecasts. However, if Joe D can package Orlando’s pick (10-12), his own pick (mid 20s), and Jason Maxiell for either a proven NBA talent (i.e. Rashard Lewis, KG) or a top five draft pick, then he may have redemption after all.
Preemptive Strike
This will likely be the only chance the Pistons have to secure success for down the road other than the crapshoot that is NBA free agency. Gradual decline is the rule in the NBA. It takes teams on the decline years to get back to championship basketball. The Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, and Pistons are evidence of that. In the NBA, fortuitous situations come along every so often. When teams make the correct decision (i.e. Chicago taking Michael Jordan, San Antonio taking Tim Duncan, Phoenix throwing a bunch of money at Steve Nash), a franchise can be set up for years. When a team makes the wrong decision (i.e. Philadelphia trading Charles Barkley for nothing), the franchise could resign itself to mediocrity for the foreseeable future. I believe that this decision for Joe D is just that sort of decision.
Just Do It!
The Pistons will not likely find themselves with such a high draft pick any time in the near future. There is absolutely no compelling reason for Joe D not to make a big move. The Pistons probably don’t have the roster room to keep two first round draft picks. Neither draft pick is likely to fetch a player talented enough to significantly improve the outlook of the future. Jason Maxiell plays the same position as Amir Johnson so he is somewhat expendable (although I like Maxiell’s game quite a bit). Joe D has already botched the Darko experiment beyond recognition. Not making a move would be like Michael Jackson refusing to try a new technology that could restore his nose to non-alien status for fear that it might mess his nose up even worse. You get to a point where you have nothing to lose. Joe D has nothing to lose. He needs to think big this off-season because one of the things that Granderson had right in his article is that this group is on the “back nine.” That doesn’t mean there isn’t a championship in the future. That just means it is closer to being a team without Billups and Rasheed than it is to the Championship it won in 2004.
Luxury Tax
Since Bill Davidson is reluctant to see his payroll go into the luxury tax zone, I doubt he’ll approve the addition of a big salary. That means Joe D will likely have to make his splash by trading up in the draft. That is a bit disappointing since the NBA draft is about as reliable as tossing a coin. However, this is one of the deepest drafts in years. A top five pick should surely net a player with tremendous potential. I just hope Joe D doesn’t have an itchy trigger finger because of Darko. The only thing that could be worse than what Joe D did with the Darko experiment would be to sit back and draft his two first-round picks. It is almost a certainty that those two picks will be worth more before the draft than they will be after. Now if only Granderson could cut down on his strikeouts—uhh sorry, I’m getting a little ahead of myself.
While I don’t necessarily blame Joe D for drafting Darko, I certainly blame him for the way he botched the Darko experiment. That said, Joe D has a chance to make amends. In his article, Granderson forecasts a “cruel” future for the franchise because of the Darko pick. While I can understand his frustrations, I think he has failed to adequately portray the situation. The verdict is not in on the whole Darko thing, yet. Sure, it is possible that nothing will ever come of Detroit’s second overall pick in the 2003 draft (AKA Darko Milicic) but Joe D salvaged a draft pick when he traded Darko to Orlando. So the Darko pick is actually still sitting on some piece of paper in Joe D’s office in the form of Orlando’s top-five protected 2007 first round draft pick. That pick may end up being Joe D’s salvation.
Orlando is tanking at the right time.
While Dwight Howard is a freak of nature, the rest of the Orlando Magic is not. That draft pick is looking a whole lot better for the Pistons than it did two weeks into the season when Orlando had the best record in the Eastern Conference. Orlando stands at 27-28 with a brutal schedule to finish out the season. I went through the rest of Orlando’s games and guesstimated the wins and losses. I can’t see the Magic finishing any better than 37-45. That equates to a 10-17 record from here on out. That record is only one win off of Orlando’s total from last season which garnered the 11th pick in the draft. I went through the prospective lottery teams for this season and guesstimated that Orlando will end up with the 12th pick in the draft assuming it finishes at 37-45. As long as the Magic doesn’t win the NBA Draft lottery (the pick is top-five protected) the Pistons can reasonably expect Orlando’s pick to fall someplace around 10-12. If Orlando tanks it even worse than I’ve projected, then the pick could be a little better.
The Package
Over the past few seasons, the Pistons have actually picked up two valuable commodities in the name of young talent. Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson have considerable trade appeal around the league. In Maxiell’s limited minutes, he has shown tremendous athleticism. He has a fairly good array of offensive moves and has improved considerably in the last two years. Johnson is considered an “untouchable” by the Pistons brass. Considering the age of the frontcourt, I think it would be wise to keep Johnson in that “untouchable” class. If the Pistons aren’t going to entertain offers for Johnson, then they have no reason to do the same with Maxiell.
This is all leading up to one of the most important off-season decisions the Pistons have had in years. It is important because it has a chance to make or break the future. If Joe D can’t parlay the Orlando pick into something big, then the Darko experiment will officially go down as one of the biggest disasters in NBA history—a distinction that I won't give it quite yet because of the technicality that is Orlando’s 2007 first round draft pick. Three years from now, the Pistons will be without Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Chris Webber, and Antonio McDyess. Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton will not be enough to keep the Pistons in championship form. Without the addition of a star player or two, the future may be as bleak as Granderson forecasts. However, if Joe D can package Orlando’s pick (10-12), his own pick (mid 20s), and Jason Maxiell for either a proven NBA talent (i.e. Rashard Lewis, KG) or a top five draft pick, then he may have redemption after all.
Preemptive Strike
This will likely be the only chance the Pistons have to secure success for down the road other than the crapshoot that is NBA free agency. Gradual decline is the rule in the NBA. It takes teams on the decline years to get back to championship basketball. The Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, and Pistons are evidence of that. In the NBA, fortuitous situations come along every so often. When teams make the correct decision (i.e. Chicago taking Michael Jordan, San Antonio taking Tim Duncan, Phoenix throwing a bunch of money at Steve Nash), a franchise can be set up for years. When a team makes the wrong decision (i.e. Philadelphia trading Charles Barkley for nothing), the franchise could resign itself to mediocrity for the foreseeable future. I believe that this decision for Joe D is just that sort of decision.
Just Do It!
The Pistons will not likely find themselves with such a high draft pick any time in the near future. There is absolutely no compelling reason for Joe D not to make a big move. The Pistons probably don’t have the roster room to keep two first round draft picks. Neither draft pick is likely to fetch a player talented enough to significantly improve the outlook of the future. Jason Maxiell plays the same position as Amir Johnson so he is somewhat expendable (although I like Maxiell’s game quite a bit). Joe D has already botched the Darko experiment beyond recognition. Not making a move would be like Michael Jackson refusing to try a new technology that could restore his nose to non-alien status for fear that it might mess his nose up even worse. You get to a point where you have nothing to lose. Joe D has nothing to lose. He needs to think big this off-season because one of the things that Granderson had right in his article is that this group is on the “back nine.” That doesn’t mean there isn’t a championship in the future. That just means it is closer to being a team without Billups and Rasheed than it is to the Championship it won in 2004.
Luxury Tax
Since Bill Davidson is reluctant to see his payroll go into the luxury tax zone, I doubt he’ll approve the addition of a big salary. That means Joe D will likely have to make his splash by trading up in the draft. That is a bit disappointing since the NBA draft is about as reliable as tossing a coin. However, this is one of the deepest drafts in years. A top five pick should surely net a player with tremendous potential. I just hope Joe D doesn’t have an itchy trigger finger because of Darko. The only thing that could be worse than what Joe D did with the Darko experiment would be to sit back and draft his two first-round picks. It is almost a certainty that those two picks will be worth more before the draft than they will be after. Now if only Granderson could cut down on his strikeouts—uhh sorry, I’m getting a little ahead of myself.
Monday, February 19, 2007
NCAA Tournament Projections (week of February 18)
It is amazing how much one week can change things. I wrote in this spot last week, “I do wonder what the Selection Committee will do with Louisville if it finishes 10-6 in the Big East. That could happen rather easily. Louisville will still likely see its RPI in the 70s with zero wins of significance.” Up until that point, Louisville was not even a factor in the “bubble” discussions. It had no wins in the RPI 60. That is not easy to do, either. Anyhow, in just six days, Louisville went from being nowhere near the NCAA Tournament to almost being a lock. Wins at Pittsburgh and at Marquette will do that for you. Louisville now stands at 9-4 in the Big East and very well could get to 12-4. I didn’t see it coming. Two teams that got booted from my projections last week are now back. Maryland and Texas Tech managed to stay afloat with 2-0 weeks respectively.
Bracket Buster Saturday didn’t really live up to my expectations. A lot of that had to do with some sour match-ups. The two teams that were helped the most by the Bracket Buster were Bradley and Drexel. Bradley is making a strong push to join the tournament field. Its win over VCU was a big-time resume boost. Drexel’s win over Creighton was also a resume boost but I don’t think that will be enough. Old Dominion also picked up a big win over Toledo not so much because it means a whole lot but because a loss would’ve ended all hopes for an at-large bid. Missouri St. inexplicably lost at home to Winthrop. That puts the Bears in danger of missing out on the tournament.
My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
Changes from last week:
In: Louisville, Texas Tech, and Maryland
Out: Florida St., Kansas St., and Arkansas
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial Old Dominion
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Maryland
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large BYU
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Louisville
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Alabama
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton
My projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.
The last five teams in the tourney right now:
1. Missouri St.
RPI rating: 42
Pomeroy rating: 39
Quality wins: Wisconsin (neutral), @ Bradley, and Bradley
Bad losses: @ St. Louis and @ Evansville
Missouri St. had everything in place for a bid early in the season. It had one of the most impressive wins of the year by any team with its win over Wisconsin. The problem is that Missouri St. didn’t really pick up any marquee wins after that other than beating Bradley twice. I expect the Bears to win their last two conference games to finish 12-6. Assuming at least one win in the MVC, I would think that Missouri St. would get in as the third team from the conference. I can’t see Bradley making it over Missouri St. considering its 0-2 record head to head.
2. Maryland
RPI rating: 19
Pomeroy rating: 13
Quality wins: Michigan St. (neutral), @ Illinois, Clemson, @ Clemson and Duke
Bad losses: Miami (FL)
Maryland picked up a huge win @ Clemson on Sunday. That sets up a huge showdown between Maryland and Florida St. I predict that the winner of the game will make the tournament and the loser will not. Maryland obviously has the advantage since it’s at home but Florida St. did smoke Maryland earlier in the season. I doubt many people know just how important that game will be.
3. Clemson
RPI rating: 30
Pomeroy rating: 25
Quality wins: @ Old Dominion, @ Florida St., Florida St., Georgia, and Boston College,
Bad losses: @ Wake Forest
The ACC grind is slowly catching up to Clemson. The Tigers started off 17-0 but now stand at 5-7 in the ACC with a brutal schedule remaining. Clemson will have to win three games out of these four: Duke, @ BC, Miami, and @ Virginia Tech. I don’t see it happening. If Clemson falls short, a run to the ACC Tournament semi-finals may put Clemson into the tournament but I wouldn’t count on it.
4. Oklahoma St.
RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 69
Quality wins: Missouri St. (neutral), Syracuse (neutral), Pittsburgh, Texas, and Texas Tech
Bad losses: @ Colorado, @ Oklahoma, and Missouri
That Colorado loss is a killer. Colorado’s RPI is in the 200s. In fact, I’d venture to guess that without that loss, OSU would be a lock for the tournament. Instead, it stands at 5-6 in the Big XII with a brutal three-game stretch coming up. I’m guessing that Oklahoma St. will finish the season 8-8 in the conference and be on the bubble with a bunch of other 8-8 and 7-9 teams from the big conferences.
5. Texas Tech
RPI rating: 40
Pomeroy rating: 53
Quality wins: @ Arkansas, Oklahoma, @ Kansas St., Kansas and @ Texas A&M, and Texas A&M
Bad losses: @ Baylor, @ Missouri, and Nebraska
I thought Texas Tech was headed to the NIT last week. Bobby Knight turned things around with a 2-0 week and a huge victory at Texas A&M. One would think that Tech only needs to get to 8-8 in the Big XII to get an invite. With games remaining against Iowa St. and Baylor, that should be a shoe-in. But, you never know with Tech.
On the outside looking in:
1. Bradley
RPI rating: 29
Pomeroy rating: 60
Quality wins: S. Illinois and VCU
Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech
Bradley is making things interesting. After seemingly falling out of the “bubble” discussions, Bradley has won three in a row. In that span, it has seen its RPI climb an amazing 17 spots in just one week. The Braves are now in the top 30 which is a huge change from last week. Bradley must win its last two conference games to move to 11-7. Then, it must win a game in the MVC. That would leave Bradley at 21-11 with an RPI in the 20’s. I am not impressed by Bradley’s resume. The Braves only have two wins of significance. It would be interesting to see if the Selection Committee would put Bradley in as a make-up for leaving out Missouri St. last year. Or, Missouri St. could just end up being the precedent the committee needs to keep a team in the 20’s (like Bradley) out of the tournament.
2. Kansas St.
RPI rating: 54
Pomeroy rating: 54
Quality wins: USC (neutral) and @ Texas
Bad losses: @ Nebraska, @ Colorado St., and @ New Mexico
Kansas St’s resume is no more impressive than Bradley’s. Bob Huggins and Co. have beaten up on the lightweights of the Big XII. Only USC and Texas are in the top 70 of the RPI among KSU’s wins. If Kansas St. wins three of its last four games, it will be a lock for the tournament. If Kansas St. wins two of its last four games, it will still be in decent shape. Anything less than that and it’s over. I’m guessing that KSU will finish 10-6 in the Big XII and be either the last team in the tournament or the last team out of the tournament. Its shody resume virtually guarantees a nervous Selection Sunday for KSU.
3. Florida St.
RPI rating: 39
Pomeroy rating: 36
Quality wins: Florida, Providence, Virginia Tech, Maryland, and @ Duke
Bad losses: none
Florida St. still sports a relatively good RPI in the high 30’s despite losing four in a row. FSU can also boast no bad losses which is quite impressive. Unfortunately, FSU fails in many of the categories the Selection Committee values like road/neutral record, record in last ten games, and conference record. If FSU can get to 8-8 in the ACC, it will be a lock for the tournament. That could happen fairly easily. All FSU would have to do is beat NC State, Maryland, and Miami (FL). Suffice it to say that the Maryland game is the biggest game of the season for FSU--and possibly Maryland too.
4. Arkansas
RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 40
Quality wins: Southern Illinois (neutral), West Virginia (neutral), Alabama, @ Alabama
Bad losses: @ Missouri, @ Mississippi, @ S. Carolina, @ Mississippi St., and @ LSU
Arkansas doesn’t win on the road against anybody—except Alabama. The Hogs are 1-7 on the road this season including a slew of losses to mediocre teams. They still have a chance to make the Big Dance by winning their last four conference games. Even winning three of those games would keep Arkansas’ hopes alive. It’s unfortunate that Arkansas couldn’t just win the games it was supposed to win because it would easily be in the field if it did.
5. Michigan St.
RPI rating: 31
Pomeroy rating: 12
Quality wins: Texas (neutral), Bradley, BYU, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Iowa
I said Michigan St. was done-for last week. I still feel that’s the case but an upset over Wisconsin or Indiana would change things. Even if MSU did win one of those games, it would still only be at 8-8 in the conference. I’m not sure if that would be enough. At that point, you’d have to think the odds would be right at 50/50. My sense is that Sparty will finish 7-9 in the Big Ten, still get some “love” as a bubble team and just miss out on the Tournament. However, its wins over Bradley, BYU, and Texas look a lot better as of late.
7. Drexel
8. Providence
9. Utah St.
10. DePaul
Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament
#29 Bradley
#31 Michigan St.
#39 Florida St.
#41 Arkansas
#47 Georgia Tech
#50 Drexel
#53 Utah St.
#54 Kansas St.
#56 DePaul
#57 VCU
#58 Michigan
#59 Davidson
Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections
#60 USC
#52 Georgia
#51 Louisville
#49 Notre Dame
#48 West Virginia
#46 Texas
#44 Illinois
#42 Missouri St.
#40 Texas Tech
#38 Stanford
#37 Purdue
#36 Oklahoma St.
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (7)
UNC
Duke
BC
Virginia
Clemson
Va. Tech
Maryland
Big East (7)
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Louisville
SEC (6)
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Alabama
Pac-10 (6)
UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford
Big XII (5)
Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas
Big Ten (5)
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
MVC (3)
Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton
MWC (3)
Air Force
UNLV
BYU
Yes, these games did happen.
(East Carolina is clearly the big winner of this category.)
Oral Roberts vs. Panhandle St.
Santa Clara vs.Holy Names
Tulsa vs. St. Gregory
Rice vs. Paul Quinn
Rice vs. Texas Permian Basin
SMU vs. Texas College
Tulane vs. Huston Tillotson
East Carolina vs. Chowan
East Carolina vs. Limestone
East Carolina vs. N.C. Central
New Mexico St. vs. Western New Mexico
BYU vs. Western Oregon
Wyoming vs. Colorado Mines
UNLV vs. Washburn
Colorado St. vs. Montana St. Northern
New Mexico vs. Abiline Christian
Louisville vs. Bellarmine
West Virginia vs. Slippery Rock
Marquette vs. Hillsdale
Seton Hall vs. Caldwell
Villanova vs. Northwood
Rutgers vs. St. Thomas Aquinas
Best Schedulers
East Carolina and Idaho
East Carolina has fives wins this season. Three of those fives wins are against D-II teams. Even though the RPI doesn’t recognize wins against D-II, East Carolina’s AD directly added 150% of the wins that ECU would have had by scheduling three D-II teams. Good job!
Idaho has three wins this season. Two of them are against South Dakota St. The amazing thing here is that South Dakota St. isn’t in the same conference as Idaho. Idaho’s AD scheduled two games against a non-conference opponent. Those two games resulted in 200% of the wins that Idaho would have had. Excellent!
Double Dip
One particular evening, I was bored enough to check out the teams that played a non-conference opponent multiple times. The list is a lot longer than I thought it would be.
Weber St., Longwood, Texas Pan America, and Chicago St. get honorable mention for having three separate two-game stints with non-conference opponents but the big winner in this category is Utah Valley St. with five such occurrences. Arkansas Pine Bluff gets the award for shamelessly trying to manufacture wins by scheduling two games against D-II Philander Smith.
Wyoming-UAB
UNLV-Hawaii
Lipscomb-Evansville
Drake-Troy
Kansas St.-New Mexico
TCU-Texas San Antonio
Northern Illinois-Duquesne
St. Joseph's-Boston University
Marshall-Ohio
Mississippi Valley St.-McNeese St.
Arkansas Pine Bluff-Philander Smith
Tulane-New Orleans
Georgia St.-Alabama St.
Southern-Louisiana Tech
Radford-Campbell
Liberty-St. Francis (PA)
East Carolina-Morgan St.
Long Island-Binghamton
Chicago St.-Wright St.
Chicago St.-New Mexico St.
Chicago St.-Valparaiso
Utah St.-Utah Valley St.
Montana St.-Utah Valley St.
Missouri Kansas City-Utah Valley St.
Southern Utah-Utah Valley St.
Texas Pan American-Texas Arlington
Texas Pan American-Texas St.
Texas Pan American-Texas San Antonio
Coastal Carolina-Savannah St.
Mercer-Savannah St.
IUPUI Fort Wayne-Western Illinois
IUPUI Fort Wayne-IUPUI
Longwood-High Point
Longwood-American
Longwood-Liberty
Winston Salem St.-Georgia Southern
Idaho-S. Dakota St.
Sienna-NJ Institue of Technology
Belmont-IUPUI
Southern Utah-Weber St.
Portland-Weber St.
Utah St.-Weber St.
Northern Arizona-San Francisco
Montana St.-Fresno St.
Montana St.-Utah Valley St.
Mississippi Valley St.-Central Arkansas
Centenary-Texas St.
Missouri Kansas City-Florida Atlantic
Southern Utah-Denver
Southern Utah-Idaho
Louisiana Lafayette-Cal St. Fullerton
Denver-Northern Colorado
Texas San Antonio-Cal St. Fullerton
San Jose St.-Long Beach St.
Arkansas St.-Bowling Green
New Mexico St.-UTEP
Southern Mississippi-Savannah St.
Bethune Cookman-Savannah St.
Stetson-Savannah St.
New Mexico St.-New Mexico
Idaho-N. Dakota St.
Most ambitious schedule
There were a lot lower-level programs that scheduled a slew of top teams. Some of those teams are; Gardner Webb, Southern, Nichols St., Elon, Texas Southern, Northeastern, Idaho St., Delaware St., and Oakland.
The Big winner, though, is Coppin St.
Virginia Tech
Tennessee
Kansas St.
Missouri
Iowa
Oklahoma
Alabama
Connecticut
Ohio St.
Bracket Buster Saturday didn’t really live up to my expectations. A lot of that had to do with some sour match-ups. The two teams that were helped the most by the Bracket Buster were Bradley and Drexel. Bradley is making a strong push to join the tournament field. Its win over VCU was a big-time resume boost. Drexel’s win over Creighton was also a resume boost but I don’t think that will be enough. Old Dominion also picked up a big win over Toledo not so much because it means a whole lot but because a loss would’ve ended all hopes for an at-large bid. Missouri St. inexplicably lost at home to Winthrop. That puts the Bears in danger of missing out on the tournament.
My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
Changes from last week:
In: Louisville, Texas Tech, and Maryland
Out: Florida St., Kansas St., and Arkansas
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial Old Dominion
12 MAC Akron
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Maryland
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large BYU
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Louisville
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Alabama
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton
My projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.
The last five teams in the tourney right now:
1. Missouri St.
RPI rating: 42
Pomeroy rating: 39
Quality wins: Wisconsin (neutral), @ Bradley, and Bradley
Bad losses: @ St. Louis and @ Evansville
Missouri St. had everything in place for a bid early in the season. It had one of the most impressive wins of the year by any team with its win over Wisconsin. The problem is that Missouri St. didn’t really pick up any marquee wins after that other than beating Bradley twice. I expect the Bears to win their last two conference games to finish 12-6. Assuming at least one win in the MVC, I would think that Missouri St. would get in as the third team from the conference. I can’t see Bradley making it over Missouri St. considering its 0-2 record head to head.
2. Maryland
RPI rating: 19
Pomeroy rating: 13
Quality wins: Michigan St. (neutral), @ Illinois, Clemson, @ Clemson and Duke
Bad losses: Miami (FL)
Maryland picked up a huge win @ Clemson on Sunday. That sets up a huge showdown between Maryland and Florida St. I predict that the winner of the game will make the tournament and the loser will not. Maryland obviously has the advantage since it’s at home but Florida St. did smoke Maryland earlier in the season. I doubt many people know just how important that game will be.
3. Clemson
RPI rating: 30
Pomeroy rating: 25
Quality wins: @ Old Dominion, @ Florida St., Florida St., Georgia, and Boston College,
Bad losses: @ Wake Forest
The ACC grind is slowly catching up to Clemson. The Tigers started off 17-0 but now stand at 5-7 in the ACC with a brutal schedule remaining. Clemson will have to win three games out of these four: Duke, @ BC, Miami, and @ Virginia Tech. I don’t see it happening. If Clemson falls short, a run to the ACC Tournament semi-finals may put Clemson into the tournament but I wouldn’t count on it.
4. Oklahoma St.
RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 69
Quality wins: Missouri St. (neutral), Syracuse (neutral), Pittsburgh, Texas, and Texas Tech
Bad losses: @ Colorado, @ Oklahoma, and Missouri
That Colorado loss is a killer. Colorado’s RPI is in the 200s. In fact, I’d venture to guess that without that loss, OSU would be a lock for the tournament. Instead, it stands at 5-6 in the Big XII with a brutal three-game stretch coming up. I’m guessing that Oklahoma St. will finish the season 8-8 in the conference and be on the bubble with a bunch of other 8-8 and 7-9 teams from the big conferences.
5. Texas Tech
RPI rating: 40
Pomeroy rating: 53
Quality wins: @ Arkansas, Oklahoma, @ Kansas St., Kansas and @ Texas A&M, and Texas A&M
Bad losses: @ Baylor, @ Missouri, and Nebraska
I thought Texas Tech was headed to the NIT last week. Bobby Knight turned things around with a 2-0 week and a huge victory at Texas A&M. One would think that Tech only needs to get to 8-8 in the Big XII to get an invite. With games remaining against Iowa St. and Baylor, that should be a shoe-in. But, you never know with Tech.
On the outside looking in:
1. Bradley
RPI rating: 29
Pomeroy rating: 60
Quality wins: S. Illinois and VCU
Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech
Bradley is making things interesting. After seemingly falling out of the “bubble” discussions, Bradley has won three in a row. In that span, it has seen its RPI climb an amazing 17 spots in just one week. The Braves are now in the top 30 which is a huge change from last week. Bradley must win its last two conference games to move to 11-7. Then, it must win a game in the MVC. That would leave Bradley at 21-11 with an RPI in the 20’s. I am not impressed by Bradley’s resume. The Braves only have two wins of significance. It would be interesting to see if the Selection Committee would put Bradley in as a make-up for leaving out Missouri St. last year. Or, Missouri St. could just end up being the precedent the committee needs to keep a team in the 20’s (like Bradley) out of the tournament.
2. Kansas St.
RPI rating: 54
Pomeroy rating: 54
Quality wins: USC (neutral) and @ Texas
Bad losses: @ Nebraska, @ Colorado St., and @ New Mexico
Kansas St’s resume is no more impressive than Bradley’s. Bob Huggins and Co. have beaten up on the lightweights of the Big XII. Only USC and Texas are in the top 70 of the RPI among KSU’s wins. If Kansas St. wins three of its last four games, it will be a lock for the tournament. If Kansas St. wins two of its last four games, it will still be in decent shape. Anything less than that and it’s over. I’m guessing that KSU will finish 10-6 in the Big XII and be either the last team in the tournament or the last team out of the tournament. Its shody resume virtually guarantees a nervous Selection Sunday for KSU.
3. Florida St.
RPI rating: 39
Pomeroy rating: 36
Quality wins: Florida, Providence, Virginia Tech, Maryland, and @ Duke
Bad losses: none
Florida St. still sports a relatively good RPI in the high 30’s despite losing four in a row. FSU can also boast no bad losses which is quite impressive. Unfortunately, FSU fails in many of the categories the Selection Committee values like road/neutral record, record in last ten games, and conference record. If FSU can get to 8-8 in the ACC, it will be a lock for the tournament. That could happen fairly easily. All FSU would have to do is beat NC State, Maryland, and Miami (FL). Suffice it to say that the Maryland game is the biggest game of the season for FSU--and possibly Maryland too.
4. Arkansas
RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 40
Quality wins: Southern Illinois (neutral), West Virginia (neutral), Alabama, @ Alabama
Bad losses: @ Missouri, @ Mississippi, @ S. Carolina, @ Mississippi St., and @ LSU
Arkansas doesn’t win on the road against anybody—except Alabama. The Hogs are 1-7 on the road this season including a slew of losses to mediocre teams. They still have a chance to make the Big Dance by winning their last four conference games. Even winning three of those games would keep Arkansas’ hopes alive. It’s unfortunate that Arkansas couldn’t just win the games it was supposed to win because it would easily be in the field if it did.
5. Michigan St.
RPI rating: 31
Pomeroy rating: 12
Quality wins: Texas (neutral), Bradley, BYU, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Iowa
I said Michigan St. was done-for last week. I still feel that’s the case but an upset over Wisconsin or Indiana would change things. Even if MSU did win one of those games, it would still only be at 8-8 in the conference. I’m not sure if that would be enough. At that point, you’d have to think the odds would be right at 50/50. My sense is that Sparty will finish 7-9 in the Big Ten, still get some “love” as a bubble team and just miss out on the Tournament. However, its wins over Bradley, BYU, and Texas look a lot better as of late.
7. Drexel
8. Providence
9. Utah St.
10. DePaul
Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament
#29 Bradley
#31 Michigan St.
#39 Florida St.
#41 Arkansas
#47 Georgia Tech
#50 Drexel
#53 Utah St.
#54 Kansas St.
#56 DePaul
#57 VCU
#58 Michigan
#59 Davidson
Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections
#60 USC
#52 Georgia
#51 Louisville
#49 Notre Dame
#48 West Virginia
#46 Texas
#44 Illinois
#42 Missouri St.
#40 Texas Tech
#38 Stanford
#37 Purdue
#36 Oklahoma St.
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (7)
UNC
Duke
BC
Virginia
Clemson
Va. Tech
Maryland
Big East (7)
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
Louisville
SEC (6)
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Alabama
Pac-10 (6)
UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford
Big XII (5)
Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas
Big Ten (5)
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
MVC (3)
Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton
MWC (3)
Air Force
UNLV
BYU
Yes, these games did happen.
(East Carolina is clearly the big winner of this category.)
Oral Roberts vs. Panhandle St.
Santa Clara vs.Holy Names
Tulsa vs. St. Gregory
Rice vs. Paul Quinn
Rice vs. Texas Permian Basin
SMU vs. Texas College
Tulane vs. Huston Tillotson
East Carolina vs. Chowan
East Carolina vs. Limestone
East Carolina vs. N.C. Central
New Mexico St. vs. Western New Mexico
BYU vs. Western Oregon
Wyoming vs. Colorado Mines
UNLV vs. Washburn
Colorado St. vs. Montana St. Northern
New Mexico vs. Abiline Christian
Louisville vs. Bellarmine
West Virginia vs. Slippery Rock
Marquette vs. Hillsdale
Seton Hall vs. Caldwell
Villanova vs. Northwood
Rutgers vs. St. Thomas Aquinas
Best Schedulers
East Carolina and Idaho
East Carolina has fives wins this season. Three of those fives wins are against D-II teams. Even though the RPI doesn’t recognize wins against D-II, East Carolina’s AD directly added 150% of the wins that ECU would have had by scheduling three D-II teams. Good job!
Idaho has three wins this season. Two of them are against South Dakota St. The amazing thing here is that South Dakota St. isn’t in the same conference as Idaho. Idaho’s AD scheduled two games against a non-conference opponent. Those two games resulted in 200% of the wins that Idaho would have had. Excellent!
Double Dip
One particular evening, I was bored enough to check out the teams that played a non-conference opponent multiple times. The list is a lot longer than I thought it would be.
Weber St., Longwood, Texas Pan America, and Chicago St. get honorable mention for having three separate two-game stints with non-conference opponents but the big winner in this category is Utah Valley St. with five such occurrences. Arkansas Pine Bluff gets the award for shamelessly trying to manufacture wins by scheduling two games against D-II Philander Smith.
Wyoming-UAB
UNLV-Hawaii
Lipscomb-Evansville
Drake-Troy
Kansas St.-New Mexico
TCU-Texas San Antonio
Northern Illinois-Duquesne
St. Joseph's-Boston University
Marshall-Ohio
Mississippi Valley St.-McNeese St.
Arkansas Pine Bluff-Philander Smith
Tulane-New Orleans
Georgia St.-Alabama St.
Southern-Louisiana Tech
Radford-Campbell
Liberty-St. Francis (PA)
East Carolina-Morgan St.
Long Island-Binghamton
Chicago St.-Wright St.
Chicago St.-New Mexico St.
Chicago St.-Valparaiso
Utah St.-Utah Valley St.
Montana St.-Utah Valley St.
Missouri Kansas City-Utah Valley St.
Southern Utah-Utah Valley St.
Texas Pan American-Texas Arlington
Texas Pan American-Texas St.
Texas Pan American-Texas San Antonio
Coastal Carolina-Savannah St.
Mercer-Savannah St.
IUPUI Fort Wayne-Western Illinois
IUPUI Fort Wayne-IUPUI
Longwood-High Point
Longwood-American
Longwood-Liberty
Winston Salem St.-Georgia Southern
Idaho-S. Dakota St.
Sienna-NJ Institue of Technology
Belmont-IUPUI
Southern Utah-Weber St.
Portland-Weber St.
Utah St.-Weber St.
Northern Arizona-San Francisco
Montana St.-Fresno St.
Montana St.-Utah Valley St.
Mississippi Valley St.-Central Arkansas
Centenary-Texas St.
Missouri Kansas City-Florida Atlantic
Southern Utah-Denver
Southern Utah-Idaho
Louisiana Lafayette-Cal St. Fullerton
Denver-Northern Colorado
Texas San Antonio-Cal St. Fullerton
San Jose St.-Long Beach St.
Arkansas St.-Bowling Green
New Mexico St.-UTEP
Southern Mississippi-Savannah St.
Bethune Cookman-Savannah St.
Stetson-Savannah St.
New Mexico St.-New Mexico
Idaho-N. Dakota St.
Most ambitious schedule
There were a lot lower-level programs that scheduled a slew of top teams. Some of those teams are; Gardner Webb, Southern, Nichols St., Elon, Texas Southern, Northeastern, Idaho St., Delaware St., and Oakland.
The Big winner, though, is Coppin St.
Virginia Tech
Tennessee
Kansas St.
Missouri
Iowa
Oklahoma
Alabama
Connecticut
Ohio St.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
It Must Feel Good to Decommit
There needs to be reform in college football recruiting. Despite the fact that even knowing recruiting exists may indict me on being a basement-dwelling freak, I can’t believe that a stand-up organization (sarcasm intended) like the NCAA would allow such absurdity to go on under its watch. Apparently the NCAA has taken an interest in said absurdity. Considering the NCAA has done everything it can to take away from the enjoyment of college football, I would not expect much to come of their “interest”.
Recruiting is a fascinating and weird phenomenon. At the very core of the weirdness is the fact that many otherwise rational college football fans engross themselves in the decisions made by 17 and 18-year old kids. I remember when I was 17 years old. No offense to my 17-year old self, but I was a moron in the nicest way possible. I can’t imagine other 17-year olds being that much different than I was in terms of maturity and understanding the effects of my actions. To think that there could have been thousands of rabid fans agonizing over my decision seems laughable. I almost didn’t even apply to Michigan because I didn’t want to write the essays. So yeah, recruiting is centered on kids who are probably just like that.
The other part of the weirdness is that, measurables and hyperbole aside, 90% of people that follow recruiting don’t know the first thing about the recruits that they invest so much of their hopes into. I know I don’t. Some call that creepy, I prefer foolhardy. Even though it seems like the negative emotions from following recruiting almost always offset the positive emotions, it is so hard to ignore the inherent lure to college football fans. It combines schools pride with unlimited potential. It is the draft of college football. Following recruiting is as irrational as following the NFL draft. For someone to try to arbitrarily draw a line between the two is ridiculous.
That brings me to the reason why recruiting reform is needed in the first place. Recruiting has been infiltrated by broken promises, negative recruiting, and decommitments. I suppose that has always been the landscape but things have escalated to a new never-before-seen-level. Everyone from the NCAA to the coaches to the recruits to the parents has played a part in creating a culture of dishonesty. There are a number of reasons why coaches and recruits manipulate and renege on their word. Without ethical rules in place to govern the way coaches behave in the recruiting process, you can’t really blame them especially when they seem to be acting in the best interests of their families (better recruits means more wins, more wins means better job security, better job security means more money, more money means happy families (at least in theory)). You can’t really blame recruits for similar reasons. But, the reasons why the reneging and decommitting are happening aren’t nearly as important as why the NCAA has allowed for such a culture to exist. With all of the rules the NCAA forces coaches and players to follow, one would think there would be a clear set of guidelines preventing coaches and players from lying through their teeth without consequences.
There seems to be somewhat of an unwritten rule in college basketball that coaches stay away from committed recruits (don’t tell this to Illinois or Michigan fans), it seems that college football coaches actually become more interested in recruits after they have committed. The world of college football coaching is very similar to the world of used-car salesmen. Not every football coach is shady. My guess is most are. What makes the recruiting scene particularly annoying for this Michigan fan is that Michigan’s football and basketball coaches are by all accounts “stand-up guys”. That inevitably leads to them being the victim of decommitments without benefiting from them (Jeremy Van Alstyne aside). They don’t meddle with committed kids. For every recruiter like Lloyd Carr and Tommy Amaker, there are ten recruiters that will tell a recruit anything and everything to get him to pledge allegiance to their schools. There are hundreds of rules that these coaches have to abide by. Unfortunately, there are no rules prohibiting coaches from lying or misleading recruits and vice versa.
Although the coaches seem to be the ones doing the most to facilitate such a distasteful environment, the coaches are certainly not the only culprits in this mess. The recruits and their families are just as responsible as the coaches. Whenever a recruit goes back on his word, that decision is inevitably characterized as “par for the course when dealing with 17 and 18-year old kids”. That pretty much excuses any prospective college athlete from having even the slightest bit of integrity. That also excuses the parents from having integrity as well. That reminds me of the famous quote from Jerry Maguire when Cush’s dad (Beau Bridges) says, “What you do have is my whole word, and it's stronger than oak.” Of course, that was just before he stabbed Jerry Maguire in the back and signed with Bob Sugar. And that is how things are unfolding right now. Without the luxury of a binding commitment until well after the average recruit has committed, coaches have to hope they aren’t being fed a bunch of empty promises by a recruit that may or may not be looking to improve his own position at all costs.
Even if being indecisive seems to be “par for the course” for young adults, someone has to be held accountable for a recruit not sticking to his word. I understand some of the arguments that kids are fickle and it is in their nature to change their minds. That is certainly a reasonable stance. If the kids aren’t going to be held accountable for their decisions, then their parents need to be. I don’t think it’s reasonable to allow kids to significantly affect the lives of hundreds of people (coaches, players etc.) because they aren’t willing to live up to their word. If an 18-year old signs up for the army and decides to renege on that commitment after being given orders to report to Iraq, he/she doesn’t have the luxury of decommitting. No commander is going to accept the excuse that kids are fickle and it’s in their nature to change their minds. In many corners of society, 17 and 18-year old kids are expected to live up to their word. College football should be no different.
Decommitting used to be a big deal. Now, if you don’t decommit, you aren’t cool. In fact, if you don’t decommit at least twice, you are falling behind the curve. Take the cases of Jerimy Finch and Cedric Everson for example:
Finch verbally committed to Michigan which undoubtedly led the Michigan coaching staff to focus their efforts on other positions. Well into the recruiting season, Finch informed Michigan that he was decommitting. He then committed to Indiana which undoubtedly led the Indiana coaching staff to focus their efforts on other positions. Shortly after that, he informed Indiana that he was decommitting again but would still consider Indiana, along with Michigan and Florida before announcing on Signing Day. Finch ended up committing to the only place that would do the story justice—Florida.
Everson verbally committed to Georgia Tech which undoubtedly led the Georgia Tech coaching staff to focus their efforts on other positions. After Georgia Tech had a shake up in its coaching staff, Everson essentially decommitted from Georgia Tech upon which he committed to Michigan State. Michigan State undoubtedly focused its efforts on other positions after getting word from Everson that he was in the fold. That was until Everson informed Michigan State that he was decommitting again to go to Iowa.
Some may argue that all of the double-crossing and reneging is just a necessary evil. I suppose that could be the case if the double crossing didn’t dually encourage dishonesty from 17 and 18 year old kids and coaches while having a tremendous impact on the job security of coaches that actually do take a more integrity-based approach to recruiting. I don’t want to give too much credit to one or two recruits. However, there is no question that coaches live and die by the success that they have on the recruiting trail. When a recruit decommits late in the season, he runs the risk of causing a school to come up empty at a position of need. If that recruit waits until most of the other highly recruited recruits have committed or until signing day to decommitt, then that school is left with nothing. That can be a crippling blow by itself. Imagine if a coach enticed a “silent verbal” to commit to a rival school with the intention of shunning them on Signing Day? As far as I know, that has happened yet. But considering the underhanded nature of recruiting, is it really unreasonable to think that might happen?
If you still aren’t convinced that decommitments can’t have a significant impact on the state of an entire athletic program, then consider what happened to the Michigan basketball program just a few years back. Joe Crawford and Al Horford decommitted from Michigan leaving Tommy Amaker with a one-man recruiting class of Ronald Coleman. Say what you will about Amaker’s coaching (I know I have), having Crawford and Horford over these last three years would have made all the difference in the world in terms of on-court success and recruiting.
That kind of thing happens all of the time in college football recruiting. Just in the last two years alone, Michigan received verbal commitments from Nic Harris (ended up at Oklahoma), Jai Eugene (ended up at LSU) and Finch (ended up at Florida) only to be bamboozled very late in the recruiting process. You can bet that in each instance, Lloyd Carr changed his recruiting emphasis after thinking the players were in the fold. When they reneged on their commitments, Carr was left scrambling to fill those empty scholarships.
Acknowledging that something is wrong and coming up with a solution are two different beasts. Most people can admit that there is something wrong in Iraq right now. Very few people can agree on a solution. I suspect we will see the same thing with recruiting reform. College football coaches (yes, even the ones that are doing the manipulating and cherry-picking) will scream foul play. Some will give suggestions on how to remedy the situation but it will likely take a long time before anyone can agree on the proper course of action. As much as the NCAA would like everyone to believe, it doesn’t take rocket science to come up with a solution. The answer has to start with holding commitments with higher regard. A commitment (even a verbal commitment) has to mean what it’s supposed to mean. What good is a commitment if it’s only temporary? If a kid commits to a school, there should be consequences for decommitting. I would have no problem with a rule that states a decommittment incurs a loss of a year of eligibility or at the very least, forcing the recruit to sit out a year. If this rule was initiated, it would make sense to allow for transfers after at least one full season at a school. The point isn’t to punish a kid for his entire collegiate life because of a regretful decision. The point is to force recruits to think the process through before haphazardly committing to a coaching staff. That sounds harsh but I think it is more than fair. This whole thing started because the NCAA has allowed an environment that encourages dishonesty. It can make up for its transgressions by punishing dishonesty.
The way things are right now, nothing a recruit says means anything until he signs a Letter of Intent. That needs to change. Verbal commitments should be given “official” status by coming with paperwork. Likewise, coaches should be obligated to keep a recruit once an offer has been given and accepted. Coaches should not be given the luxury of binding a recruit to a commitment without having to live up to his commitment as well. Making verbal commitments binding would essentially create an early signing period that is in effect all the way until signing day. Instead of signing day being the pinnacle of the college football recruiting season, it should simply be viewed as the last day a recruit can commit somewhere.
There also needs to be a rule discouraging coaches from contacting kids that have committed. With a decommitment meaning a loss of a year of eligibility, I doubt that we’ll see any decommitments. However, coaches should only be allowed to contact a kid after that kid decommits—not before. I have no problem with a rule that would allow the coach of the team that received the initial commitment to allow the recruit a release from his commitment to pursue other interests. It should be written in stone that no committed recruit is to be contacted by another coach. That, along with taking commitments in literal terms, needs to be the focus of the recruiting reform.
I know some people don’t like absolutes. There would be complaints about these reforms being too tough on kids. I don’t have any sympathy for that school of thought. If the kids aren’t going to be held accountable, then their parents need to be. The NCAA makes such a big deal about not violating their rules but they have created a breeding ground for the largest amount of ethical violations it has ever witnessed.
The outcome of these rules would hopefully be a more thought out recruiting process on behalf of both the recruits and the coaches. The recruits would be forced to do more research on various schools and explore all options since the consequences of a decommitment would be too harsh to risk. The coaches would no longer be able to rely on stealing kids from other schools to complete their classes.
I have read on more than one occasion the viewpoint that as long as coaches can leave whenever they want to, recruits should be able to change their minds whenever they want as well. I don’t have a problem with that thinking. There should be a rule that states that if a coach leaves the program before the end of the signing period, recruits that had committed to that school can decommit without incurring a loss of eligibility. That seems reasonable to me.
Recruiting is a fascinating and weird phenomenon. At the very core of the weirdness is the fact that many otherwise rational college football fans engross themselves in the decisions made by 17 and 18-year old kids. I remember when I was 17 years old. No offense to my 17-year old self, but I was a moron in the nicest way possible. I can’t imagine other 17-year olds being that much different than I was in terms of maturity and understanding the effects of my actions. To think that there could have been thousands of rabid fans agonizing over my decision seems laughable. I almost didn’t even apply to Michigan because I didn’t want to write the essays. So yeah, recruiting is centered on kids who are probably just like that.
The other part of the weirdness is that, measurables and hyperbole aside, 90% of people that follow recruiting don’t know the first thing about the recruits that they invest so much of their hopes into. I know I don’t. Some call that creepy, I prefer foolhardy. Even though it seems like the negative emotions from following recruiting almost always offset the positive emotions, it is so hard to ignore the inherent lure to college football fans. It combines schools pride with unlimited potential. It is the draft of college football. Following recruiting is as irrational as following the NFL draft. For someone to try to arbitrarily draw a line between the two is ridiculous.
That brings me to the reason why recruiting reform is needed in the first place. Recruiting has been infiltrated by broken promises, negative recruiting, and decommitments. I suppose that has always been the landscape but things have escalated to a new never-before-seen-level. Everyone from the NCAA to the coaches to the recruits to the parents has played a part in creating a culture of dishonesty. There are a number of reasons why coaches and recruits manipulate and renege on their word. Without ethical rules in place to govern the way coaches behave in the recruiting process, you can’t really blame them especially when they seem to be acting in the best interests of their families (better recruits means more wins, more wins means better job security, better job security means more money, more money means happy families (at least in theory)). You can’t really blame recruits for similar reasons. But, the reasons why the reneging and decommitting are happening aren’t nearly as important as why the NCAA has allowed for such a culture to exist. With all of the rules the NCAA forces coaches and players to follow, one would think there would be a clear set of guidelines preventing coaches and players from lying through their teeth without consequences.
There seems to be somewhat of an unwritten rule in college basketball that coaches stay away from committed recruits (don’t tell this to Illinois or Michigan fans), it seems that college football coaches actually become more interested in recruits after they have committed. The world of college football coaching is very similar to the world of used-car salesmen. Not every football coach is shady. My guess is most are. What makes the recruiting scene particularly annoying for this Michigan fan is that Michigan’s football and basketball coaches are by all accounts “stand-up guys”. That inevitably leads to them being the victim of decommitments without benefiting from them (Jeremy Van Alstyne aside). They don’t meddle with committed kids. For every recruiter like Lloyd Carr and Tommy Amaker, there are ten recruiters that will tell a recruit anything and everything to get him to pledge allegiance to their schools. There are hundreds of rules that these coaches have to abide by. Unfortunately, there are no rules prohibiting coaches from lying or misleading recruits and vice versa.
Although the coaches seem to be the ones doing the most to facilitate such a distasteful environment, the coaches are certainly not the only culprits in this mess. The recruits and their families are just as responsible as the coaches. Whenever a recruit goes back on his word, that decision is inevitably characterized as “par for the course when dealing with 17 and 18-year old kids”. That pretty much excuses any prospective college athlete from having even the slightest bit of integrity. That also excuses the parents from having integrity as well. That reminds me of the famous quote from Jerry Maguire when Cush’s dad (Beau Bridges) says, “What you do have is my whole word, and it's stronger than oak.” Of course, that was just before he stabbed Jerry Maguire in the back and signed with Bob Sugar. And that is how things are unfolding right now. Without the luxury of a binding commitment until well after the average recruit has committed, coaches have to hope they aren’t being fed a bunch of empty promises by a recruit that may or may not be looking to improve his own position at all costs.
Even if being indecisive seems to be “par for the course” for young adults, someone has to be held accountable for a recruit not sticking to his word. I understand some of the arguments that kids are fickle and it is in their nature to change their minds. That is certainly a reasonable stance. If the kids aren’t going to be held accountable for their decisions, then their parents need to be. I don’t think it’s reasonable to allow kids to significantly affect the lives of hundreds of people (coaches, players etc.) because they aren’t willing to live up to their word. If an 18-year old signs up for the army and decides to renege on that commitment after being given orders to report to Iraq, he/she doesn’t have the luxury of decommitting. No commander is going to accept the excuse that kids are fickle and it’s in their nature to change their minds. In many corners of society, 17 and 18-year old kids are expected to live up to their word. College football should be no different.
Decommitting used to be a big deal. Now, if you don’t decommit, you aren’t cool. In fact, if you don’t decommit at least twice, you are falling behind the curve. Take the cases of Jerimy Finch and Cedric Everson for example:
Finch verbally committed to Michigan which undoubtedly led the Michigan coaching staff to focus their efforts on other positions. Well into the recruiting season, Finch informed Michigan that he was decommitting. He then committed to Indiana which undoubtedly led the Indiana coaching staff to focus their efforts on other positions. Shortly after that, he informed Indiana that he was decommitting again but would still consider Indiana, along with Michigan and Florida before announcing on Signing Day. Finch ended up committing to the only place that would do the story justice—Florida.
Everson verbally committed to Georgia Tech which undoubtedly led the Georgia Tech coaching staff to focus their efforts on other positions. After Georgia Tech had a shake up in its coaching staff, Everson essentially decommitted from Georgia Tech upon which he committed to Michigan State. Michigan State undoubtedly focused its efforts on other positions after getting word from Everson that he was in the fold. That was until Everson informed Michigan State that he was decommitting again to go to Iowa.
Some may argue that all of the double-crossing and reneging is just a necessary evil. I suppose that could be the case if the double crossing didn’t dually encourage dishonesty from 17 and 18 year old kids and coaches while having a tremendous impact on the job security of coaches that actually do take a more integrity-based approach to recruiting. I don’t want to give too much credit to one or two recruits. However, there is no question that coaches live and die by the success that they have on the recruiting trail. When a recruit decommits late in the season, he runs the risk of causing a school to come up empty at a position of need. If that recruit waits until most of the other highly recruited recruits have committed or until signing day to decommitt, then that school is left with nothing. That can be a crippling blow by itself. Imagine if a coach enticed a “silent verbal” to commit to a rival school with the intention of shunning them on Signing Day? As far as I know, that has happened yet. But considering the underhanded nature of recruiting, is it really unreasonable to think that might happen?
If you still aren’t convinced that decommitments can’t have a significant impact on the state of an entire athletic program, then consider what happened to the Michigan basketball program just a few years back. Joe Crawford and Al Horford decommitted from Michigan leaving Tommy Amaker with a one-man recruiting class of Ronald Coleman. Say what you will about Amaker’s coaching (I know I have), having Crawford and Horford over these last three years would have made all the difference in the world in terms of on-court success and recruiting.
That kind of thing happens all of the time in college football recruiting. Just in the last two years alone, Michigan received verbal commitments from Nic Harris (ended up at Oklahoma), Jai Eugene (ended up at LSU) and Finch (ended up at Florida) only to be bamboozled very late in the recruiting process. You can bet that in each instance, Lloyd Carr changed his recruiting emphasis after thinking the players were in the fold. When they reneged on their commitments, Carr was left scrambling to fill those empty scholarships.
Acknowledging that something is wrong and coming up with a solution are two different beasts. Most people can admit that there is something wrong in Iraq right now. Very few people can agree on a solution. I suspect we will see the same thing with recruiting reform. College football coaches (yes, even the ones that are doing the manipulating and cherry-picking) will scream foul play. Some will give suggestions on how to remedy the situation but it will likely take a long time before anyone can agree on the proper course of action. As much as the NCAA would like everyone to believe, it doesn’t take rocket science to come up with a solution. The answer has to start with holding commitments with higher regard. A commitment (even a verbal commitment) has to mean what it’s supposed to mean. What good is a commitment if it’s only temporary? If a kid commits to a school, there should be consequences for decommitting. I would have no problem with a rule that states a decommittment incurs a loss of a year of eligibility or at the very least, forcing the recruit to sit out a year. If this rule was initiated, it would make sense to allow for transfers after at least one full season at a school. The point isn’t to punish a kid for his entire collegiate life because of a regretful decision. The point is to force recruits to think the process through before haphazardly committing to a coaching staff. That sounds harsh but I think it is more than fair. This whole thing started because the NCAA has allowed an environment that encourages dishonesty. It can make up for its transgressions by punishing dishonesty.
The way things are right now, nothing a recruit says means anything until he signs a Letter of Intent. That needs to change. Verbal commitments should be given “official” status by coming with paperwork. Likewise, coaches should be obligated to keep a recruit once an offer has been given and accepted. Coaches should not be given the luxury of binding a recruit to a commitment without having to live up to his commitment as well. Making verbal commitments binding would essentially create an early signing period that is in effect all the way until signing day. Instead of signing day being the pinnacle of the college football recruiting season, it should simply be viewed as the last day a recruit can commit somewhere.
There also needs to be a rule discouraging coaches from contacting kids that have committed. With a decommitment meaning a loss of a year of eligibility, I doubt that we’ll see any decommitments. However, coaches should only be allowed to contact a kid after that kid decommits—not before. I have no problem with a rule that would allow the coach of the team that received the initial commitment to allow the recruit a release from his commitment to pursue other interests. It should be written in stone that no committed recruit is to be contacted by another coach. That, along with taking commitments in literal terms, needs to be the focus of the recruiting reform.
I know some people don’t like absolutes. There would be complaints about these reforms being too tough on kids. I don’t have any sympathy for that school of thought. If the kids aren’t going to be held accountable, then their parents need to be. The NCAA makes such a big deal about not violating their rules but they have created a breeding ground for the largest amount of ethical violations it has ever witnessed.
The outcome of these rules would hopefully be a more thought out recruiting process on behalf of both the recruits and the coaches. The recruits would be forced to do more research on various schools and explore all options since the consequences of a decommitment would be too harsh to risk. The coaches would no longer be able to rely on stealing kids from other schools to complete their classes.
I have read on more than one occasion the viewpoint that as long as coaches can leave whenever they want to, recruits should be able to change their minds whenever they want as well. I don’t have a problem with that thinking. There should be a rule that states that if a coach leaves the program before the end of the signing period, recruits that had committed to that school can decommit without incurring a loss of eligibility. That seems reasonable to me.
Monday, February 12, 2007
NCAA Tournament Projections (week of February 11)
Whereas last week there were 70 teams to fill 65 spots, this week there are 67 teams to fill 65 spots. Only Maryland and Texas Tech have relatively good chances of climbing their way back into the field. I can’t remember a year with so many mediocre basketball teams. Unless there are a slew of upsets in the conference tournaments, this year’s group of bubble teams will be an all-time low. I do wonder what the Selection Committee will do with Louisville if it finishes 10-6 in the Big East. That could happen rather easily. Louisville will still likely see its RPI in the 70s with zero wins of significance. I would think it would be an easy decision but 10 conference wins in the Big East can be a big tease.
My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
Changes from last week:
In: BYU, Kansas St., and Purdue
Out: Michigan St., Texas Tech, and Maryland
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large BYU
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Alabama
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Kansas St.
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton
My projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.
The last five teams in the tourney right now:
1. Purdue
RPI rating: 40
Pomeroy rating: 34
Quality wins: Virginia, Oklahoma (neutral), Michigan St., and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Indiana St., and @ Minnesota
Purdue has to either beat Indiana at home or Iowa on the road. If neither of those things happen, then the best Purdue can finish is 8-8 in an extremely weak Big Ten. If Purdue can split those games, that would set up an easy three-game finish against Northwestern (2) and Minnesota. Purdue still has some decent non-conference wins to boost its profile. Even with the Big Ten being down, I think 9-7 would get Purdue in.
2. Georgia
RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 28
Quality wins: Gonzaga (neutral), Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, and Kentucky
Bad losses: none
Georgia might not even be on the list of “last teams in the NCAA Tournament” soon enough. Georgia could easily get to 9-5 in the SEC after its next three conference games. However, if Georgia loses any of those three games, it will struggle to finish better than 8-8 in the SEC. It would have to win one of its last two games against Tennessee or @ Kentucky. I do think 9-7 gets Georgia in.
3. Arkansas
RPI rating: 37
Pomeroy rating: 35
Quality wins: Southern Illinois (neutral), West Virginia (neutral), Alabama, @ Alabama
Bad losses: @ Missouri and @ S. Carolina
Arkansas is not making things easy for its fans. The Razorbacks stand at 4-6 in the SEC. If they lose any more games against teams that they should beat, they could be out of the running for an at-large bid. The good news for Arkansas is that it gets to play Mississippi St. (2), Mississippi, and Auburn. If that ends up being four wins, then Arkansas will probably be invited to the Big Dance.
4. Illinois
RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 31
Quality wins: Bradley (neutral), Michigan St., and Indiana
Bad losses: none
I had a sense back in early January when Illinois was struggling that it would make the tournament. That had more to do with the Big Ten being weak than anything else. Illinois has all but secured a bid. Its resume probably doesn’t look that impressive but the answer to why Illinois will be getting a bid lies in its remaining schedule. Out of its four remaining games, three are locks and the third is not unlikely. That would put Illinois at 10-6 or 9-7 at worst in the Big Ten. Illinois’ season has been far from special. Two of its best wins aren’t even that impressive. Nonetheless, the Illini are heading to the Big Dance barring a collapse.
5. Alabama
RPI rating: 30
Pomeroy rating: 58
Quality wins: Xavier (neutral) and Georgia
Bad losses: @ Auburn
In ten days, Alabama could easily be sitting at 5-8 in the SEC. Two weeks after that, Alabama could easily finish 8-8 in the SEC. ‘Bama would do itself a huge favor by not losing anymore games to the weaker teams in the SEC. I’m not sure that 8-8 would be enough to get Alabama into the Big Dance. I know they are “viewed” as a top 25 team so that may help them get in. But, if the Selection Committee really looks at resume only and not perception, then an 8-8 Alabama team should struggle to get an invitation.
On the outside looking in:
1. Maryland
RPI rating: 33
Pomeroy rating: 19
Quality wins: Michigan St. (neutral), @ Illinois, Clemson, and Duke
Bad losses: Miami (FL)
If Duke wasn’t currently in a free-fall, then Maryland’s win over Duke last night might have been enough to get them into the projections. Since a win over Duke isn’t as impressive as it usually is and Maryland is only 4-6 in the ACC, it falls short this week. With victories over Michigan St., and Illinois, Maryland has the makings of a competitive resume. If Maryland can get to 8-8 in the ACC, I think it will make the tournament. That would require two wins over NC State, and then two wins out of the following: @ Clemson, Florida St., North Carolina, and @ Duke. I don’t see it happening.
2. Texas Tech
RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 57
Quality wins: @ Arkansas, Oklahoma, @ Kansas St., Kansas and Texas A&M
Bad losses: @ Baylor, @ Missouri, and Nebraska
Texas Tech has pulled a classic “choke job”. It’s one thing to lose but it’s another thing to lose to a bunch of teams you have no business losing to. Texas Tech has wins over Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas St., Kansas, and Texas A&M. That’s one of the best collections of five-wins in basketball. Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, they have lost to Baylor, Missouri, and Nebraska. All is not lost though. If Texas Tech can beat Colorado, Baylor, and Iowa St. (the three worst teams in the Big XII), then it will only need to win one against Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma St. to get to 8-8 in the Big XII. Considering the wins over Kansas and Texas A&M, I think 8-8 would put Texas Tech in.
3. Michigan St.
RPI rating: 42
Pomeroy rating: 27
Quality wins: Texas (neutral), Bradley, BYU, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Iowa
Stick a fork in the Spartans. They are done. I can’t believe it either. I thought for sure that MSU was headed to the Big Dance. I suppose a run in the Big Ten tournament could make things interesting come Selection Sunday but MSU has to win a game against Wisconsin (2) or Indiana just to finish 8-8 in the Big Ten. I don’t see that happening. And, even if MSU does win one of those games, Michigan could accidentally win one of its two games against MSU. It would take a miracle for MSU to finish 8-8. Maybe Izzo has another trick up his sleeve. I wouldn’t bet on it.
4. Old Dominion
RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 62
Quality wins: @ Georgetown, @ Drexel, Drexel, and Virginia Commonwealth
Bad losses: @ Marist and @ James Madison
Old Dominion was lingering around for a little while just outside of the “bubble” radar but it is hard to ignore the Monarchs now. They don’t have the greatest RPI in the world but they have four wins in the RPI 50. They won at Georgetown. They are 12-3 in the CAA including two wins over Drexel and a win over Virginia Commonwealth. Old Dominion could end up being the automatic bid from the CAA which would put VCU squarely on the bubble. With Hofstra and Drexel playing good basketball, it would surprise me if the CAA didn’t at least get strong consideration for a second bid.
5. Bradley
RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 60
Quality wins: S. Illinois
Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech
Bradley has a chance to make or break its season. With the MVC having so much success, it will get every opportunity to get teams into to the tournament. I’m guessing that a team that finishes 11-7 in the conference would have to get serious consideration. In order for Bradley to get to 11 wins, it would have to win its remaining three conference games. Even then, it might have to win a game or two in the MVC Conference Tournament to be in the running for an automatic bid. Luckily for Bradley, all three games are very winnable. The fourth game is a Bracket Buster showdown with VCU. Winning all four would put Bradley at 20-10 on the season with an RPI likely in the top 40. I don’t think Bradley can get it done but it’s certainly possible.
6. Oklahoma
7. Louisville
8. Providence
9. Hofstra
10. Drexel
Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament
#33 Maryland
#42 Michigan St.
#45 Texas Tech
#47 Bradley
#50 Drexel
#52 Providence
#53 San Diego St.
#55 Mississippi
#56 Georgia Tech
#58 Old Dominion
#59 Michigan
#61 Oklahoma
Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections
#54 Texas
#51 Notre Dame
#49 Kansas St.
#48 Vanderbilt
#46 USC
#43 Georgia
#41 Illinois
#40 Purdue
#39 Stanford
#38 West Virginia
#37 Arkansas
#35 Virginia
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (7)
UNC
Duke
BC
Virginia
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU
Big East (6)
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
SEC (7)
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Alabama
Pac-10 (6)
UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford
Big XII (5)
Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Kansas St.
Texas A&M
Texas
Big Ten (5)
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
MVC (3)
Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton
MWC (3)
Air Force
UNLV
BYU
My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
Changes from last week:
In: BYU, Kansas St., and Purdue
Out: Michigan St., Texas Tech, and Maryland
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large BYU
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Alabama
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Kansas St.
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton
My projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.
The last five teams in the tourney right now:
1. Purdue
RPI rating: 40
Pomeroy rating: 34
Quality wins: Virginia, Oklahoma (neutral), Michigan St., and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Indiana St., and @ Minnesota
Purdue has to either beat Indiana at home or Iowa on the road. If neither of those things happen, then the best Purdue can finish is 8-8 in an extremely weak Big Ten. If Purdue can split those games, that would set up an easy three-game finish against Northwestern (2) and Minnesota. Purdue still has some decent non-conference wins to boost its profile. Even with the Big Ten being down, I think 9-7 would get Purdue in.
2. Georgia
RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 28
Quality wins: Gonzaga (neutral), Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, and Kentucky
Bad losses: none
Georgia might not even be on the list of “last teams in the NCAA Tournament” soon enough. Georgia could easily get to 9-5 in the SEC after its next three conference games. However, if Georgia loses any of those three games, it will struggle to finish better than 8-8 in the SEC. It would have to win one of its last two games against Tennessee or @ Kentucky. I do think 9-7 gets Georgia in.
3. Arkansas
RPI rating: 37
Pomeroy rating: 35
Quality wins: Southern Illinois (neutral), West Virginia (neutral), Alabama, @ Alabama
Bad losses: @ Missouri and @ S. Carolina
Arkansas is not making things easy for its fans. The Razorbacks stand at 4-6 in the SEC. If they lose any more games against teams that they should beat, they could be out of the running for an at-large bid. The good news for Arkansas is that it gets to play Mississippi St. (2), Mississippi, and Auburn. If that ends up being four wins, then Arkansas will probably be invited to the Big Dance.
4. Illinois
RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 31
Quality wins: Bradley (neutral), Michigan St., and Indiana
Bad losses: none
I had a sense back in early January when Illinois was struggling that it would make the tournament. That had more to do with the Big Ten being weak than anything else. Illinois has all but secured a bid. Its resume probably doesn’t look that impressive but the answer to why Illinois will be getting a bid lies in its remaining schedule. Out of its four remaining games, three are locks and the third is not unlikely. That would put Illinois at 10-6 or 9-7 at worst in the Big Ten. Illinois’ season has been far from special. Two of its best wins aren’t even that impressive. Nonetheless, the Illini are heading to the Big Dance barring a collapse.
5. Alabama
RPI rating: 30
Pomeroy rating: 58
Quality wins: Xavier (neutral) and Georgia
Bad losses: @ Auburn
In ten days, Alabama could easily be sitting at 5-8 in the SEC. Two weeks after that, Alabama could easily finish 8-8 in the SEC. ‘Bama would do itself a huge favor by not losing anymore games to the weaker teams in the SEC. I’m not sure that 8-8 would be enough to get Alabama into the Big Dance. I know they are “viewed” as a top 25 team so that may help them get in. But, if the Selection Committee really looks at resume only and not perception, then an 8-8 Alabama team should struggle to get an invitation.
On the outside looking in:
1. Maryland
RPI rating: 33
Pomeroy rating: 19
Quality wins: Michigan St. (neutral), @ Illinois, Clemson, and Duke
Bad losses: Miami (FL)
If Duke wasn’t currently in a free-fall, then Maryland’s win over Duke last night might have been enough to get them into the projections. Since a win over Duke isn’t as impressive as it usually is and Maryland is only 4-6 in the ACC, it falls short this week. With victories over Michigan St., and Illinois, Maryland has the makings of a competitive resume. If Maryland can get to 8-8 in the ACC, I think it will make the tournament. That would require two wins over NC State, and then two wins out of the following: @ Clemson, Florida St., North Carolina, and @ Duke. I don’t see it happening.
2. Texas Tech
RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 57
Quality wins: @ Arkansas, Oklahoma, @ Kansas St., Kansas and Texas A&M
Bad losses: @ Baylor, @ Missouri, and Nebraska
Texas Tech has pulled a classic “choke job”. It’s one thing to lose but it’s another thing to lose to a bunch of teams you have no business losing to. Texas Tech has wins over Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas St., Kansas, and Texas A&M. That’s one of the best collections of five-wins in basketball. Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, they have lost to Baylor, Missouri, and Nebraska. All is not lost though. If Texas Tech can beat Colorado, Baylor, and Iowa St. (the three worst teams in the Big XII), then it will only need to win one against Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma St. to get to 8-8 in the Big XII. Considering the wins over Kansas and Texas A&M, I think 8-8 would put Texas Tech in.
3. Michigan St.
RPI rating: 42
Pomeroy rating: 27
Quality wins: Texas (neutral), Bradley, BYU, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Iowa
Stick a fork in the Spartans. They are done. I can’t believe it either. I thought for sure that MSU was headed to the Big Dance. I suppose a run in the Big Ten tournament could make things interesting come Selection Sunday but MSU has to win a game against Wisconsin (2) or Indiana just to finish 8-8 in the Big Ten. I don’t see that happening. And, even if MSU does win one of those games, Michigan could accidentally win one of its two games against MSU. It would take a miracle for MSU to finish 8-8. Maybe Izzo has another trick up his sleeve. I wouldn’t bet on it.
4. Old Dominion
RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 62
Quality wins: @ Georgetown, @ Drexel, Drexel, and Virginia Commonwealth
Bad losses: @ Marist and @ James Madison
Old Dominion was lingering around for a little while just outside of the “bubble” radar but it is hard to ignore the Monarchs now. They don’t have the greatest RPI in the world but they have four wins in the RPI 50. They won at Georgetown. They are 12-3 in the CAA including two wins over Drexel and a win over Virginia Commonwealth. Old Dominion could end up being the automatic bid from the CAA which would put VCU squarely on the bubble. With Hofstra and Drexel playing good basketball, it would surprise me if the CAA didn’t at least get strong consideration for a second bid.
5. Bradley
RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 60
Quality wins: S. Illinois
Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech
Bradley has a chance to make or break its season. With the MVC having so much success, it will get every opportunity to get teams into to the tournament. I’m guessing that a team that finishes 11-7 in the conference would have to get serious consideration. In order for Bradley to get to 11 wins, it would have to win its remaining three conference games. Even then, it might have to win a game or two in the MVC Conference Tournament to be in the running for an automatic bid. Luckily for Bradley, all three games are very winnable. The fourth game is a Bracket Buster showdown with VCU. Winning all four would put Bradley at 20-10 on the season with an RPI likely in the top 40. I don’t think Bradley can get it done but it’s certainly possible.
6. Oklahoma
7. Louisville
8. Providence
9. Hofstra
10. Drexel
Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament
#33 Maryland
#42 Michigan St.
#45 Texas Tech
#47 Bradley
#50 Drexel
#52 Providence
#53 San Diego St.
#55 Mississippi
#56 Georgia Tech
#58 Old Dominion
#59 Michigan
#61 Oklahoma
Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections
#54 Texas
#51 Notre Dame
#49 Kansas St.
#48 Vanderbilt
#46 USC
#43 Georgia
#41 Illinois
#40 Purdue
#39 Stanford
#38 West Virginia
#37 Arkansas
#35 Virginia
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (7)
UNC
Duke
BC
Virginia
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU
Big East (6)
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
SEC (7)
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Alabama
Pac-10 (6)
UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford
Big XII (5)
Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Kansas St.
Texas A&M
Texas
Big Ten (5)
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
MVC (3)
Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton
MWC (3)
Air Force
UNLV
BYU
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Michigan's Next Basketball Coach
Regardless of whether Tommy Amaker is going to remain Michigan’s basketball coach after this season, the fact remains that the vast majority of Michigan basketball fans are disgruntled with the state of the program. Keep in mind that this is the same fanbase that was more than willing to give Amaker ample time to make his mark. I can’t think of a coach that was given more time and excuses than what Amaker has received. I don’t think the rumblings from the fanbase are unreasonable in the slightest. The program is no better off in year six than it was in year one other than being five years farther away from the probation era.
Amaker’s tenure has been marked by a lack of preparedness and a noticeable lack of progression by his players. It is amazing how many times I have spoken to Michigan basketball fans who agree that Dion Harris, Lester Abram, and Courtney Sims were actually better during their freshman year than they are as seniors. I suppose an argument could be made that they were just overrated to begin with but that really makes no difference. Even overrated players improve over four seasons. Harris, Abram, and Sims are hardly the only players that have not progressed under Amaker. In fact, I can’t name a single player that noticeably improved from their freshman year. If that isn’t an indictment on Amaker, then I don’t know what is.
If Michigan is going to get back to its winning ways on the court, it will have to do what so many struggling basketball programs have done—bring in a proven winner. A proven winner is not necessarily the same as a big-name coach. They can be the same—but they don’t have to be. Michigan probably won’t have the luxury of bringing in a big name and that might not be such a bad thing. It’s not hard to find a coach that has won consistently at multiple institutions. Some of the best coaches in America are coaches that nobody had even heard of five years ago.
Quick turnarounds are not as hard as Amaker has made them out to be. It certainly shouldn’t take six years. It took all of six months before Bob Huggins transformed Kansas St. from an awful program into a serious candidate for the NCAA Tournament. Huggins might not be your “cup of tea” since he has had issues in the past but there are plenty of coaches like Huggins. Michigan took a chance in hiring Amaker because he hadn’t really accomplished anything tangible in his coaching career. He “supposedly” had the pedigree but whether he could lead a college basketball program to great things was not known. Amaker has been a coach for ten seasons. Look at any other coaching resume of ten seasons and you’ll know immediately if you’re dealing with a good coach or an average coach. It doesn’t take good coaches ten seasons to find their niche.
I cited a few statistics last week in a post that I wrote regarding Amaker’s tenure. Most of those statistics featured won/loss records on the road and records against other Big Ten teams. What I didn’t get into was margin of defeat. While Michigan is 5-36 on the road against teams that aren’t Penn St. and Northwestern, the average margin of defeat in those 36 losses is 16 points. Since Amaker took over in 2002, Michigan’s average margin of defeat on the road is actually worse than Northwestern’s. Since Northwestern doesn’t have the luxury of playing itself twice per season, its road schedule has actually been more difficult than Michigan’s. It’s one thing for a team to lose too often but it’s a completely different thing to lose too often by a gazillion points. My point here is that Michigan isn’t even close to breaking through. It’s not like Amaker has been stung by fluke losses. For six seasons he has had decent players but nothing has changed since year one. His teams either beat very bad teams or lose by a lot to good teams. Almost any coach could accomplish the same thing.
Michigan needs to hire a coach that can stamp an identity onto the program. That coach needs to be a coach that has actually led a program beyond expectations in the past. That coach needs to be a coach that has helped decent players become great players. The next coach can’t be a coach with “potential”. There are far too many coaches available that have proven the ability to do all of the things that Amaker was supposed to be able to do. I understand Bill Martin wants to reward Amaker for keeping the program out of trouble and for taking a huge mess without complaining. Unfortunately for Martin and Amaker, the fanbase has much higher expectations than a nice basketball coach leading an underachieving program.
Here is a list of candidates that Michigan should seriously consider if it decides to move beyond the Amaker era. I only included coaches that might actually want to coach at Michigan. I can’t see Jamie Dixon leaving Pittsburgh or Jay Wright leaving Villanova. Those are basketball schools that are legitimate championship contenders. I’m not saying that Michigan is a better job than every school on this list. I just think that these coaches would at least listen to Michigan if it called. There really is no harm in “shooting for the stars” but I chose not to waste everyone’s time with that. I also did not include coaches that just started at a new school like Anthony Grant (VCU), Bobby Gonzalez (Seton Hall), and Greg McDermott (Iowa St.) among others. Those coaches could be ready to move on to bigger and better places (whether Michigan is bigger and better remains to be seen) in a few years.
Michigan Basketball Coaching Candidates
1). Tom Crean Marquette Head Coach
Whether you like Tom Izzo or not, there is no question that he is one of the top coaches in college basketball. Crean is probably the closest thing there is to Izzo. In fact, Crean's time at Marquette is remarkably similar to Izzo's time at MSU. Both hovered around .500 in their first two seasons before seeing their programs blow up. Crean coached under Izzo at MSU. He has put Marquette back on the map. He was an excellent recruiter at MSU and continues to be an excellent recruiter at Marquette. Crean has won at least 19 games in each of the last six seasons including a trip to the Final Four in 2003. Marquette handled its move to the Big East brilliantly which is saying a lot considering how much better the Big East is than Marquette's former conference--Conference USA.
Crean also has a Michigan connection as he is Jim Harbaugh's brother-in-law. Getting Crean to leave Marquette may be a tough sell but it is certainly worth a shot. I don't think there is any question that Crean would return Michigan to its glory days.
2). Billy Gillispie Texas A&M Head Coach
I don't think there is a more impressive coach in college basketball right now than Billy Gillispie. Texas A&M hadn't had a good college basketball program in my lifetime until Gillispie came aboard. He is on his way to a third 20-win season in three years at A&M. The year before Gillispie arrived, A&M was 7-21. In Gillispie's first year, he went 21-10. He followed that with a 22-9 record and a trip to the NCAA Tournament. In his third season, he has A&M firmly in the top ten and in line for a two or three seed in the tournament.
Gillispie is no one-trick pony either. He took over the UTEP program in 2002. In his first season, UTEP went 6-24. In his second season, he took UTEP to the NCAA Tournament with a 24-8 record. This is the kind of coach that Michigan fans have been clamoring for. He preaches defense without yielding disorganization on offense. He clearly makes the most out of his talent as the cupboards were certainly not full when he arrived at UTEP and Texas A&M. The trick here would be getting Gillispie to leave Texas A&M.
3). Lon Kruger UNLV Head Coach
Lon Kruger is one of the top ten coaches in college basketball hands down. He coached Kansas St. for four years from 1986-1990. He took his team to the NCAA Tournament all four seasons. Then, he moved on to Florida which had gone 7-21 the previous season. After six seasons and a trip to the Final Four with Dan Cross, Andrew DeClerq, and D’meat Hook (Dametri Hill), Kruger left Florida as a national powerhouse to coach Illinois. In four seasons at Illinois, he led his teams to the second round of the NCAA Tournament three times.
After an unsuccessful stint in the NBA, Kruger returned to coaching at UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels are once again among the nation top programs thanks to Kruger. Kruger won 15 games in his first season and improved to 17 wins in his second season. Now in his third season, Kruger has UNLV 10th in the RPI with wins over Nevada, BYU, and Texas Tech. Kruger has never failed to deliver a winning program at four different Universities. He might be the surest thing to guaranteed success that Michigan will find.
4). Mike Montgomery Former Stanford Head Coach
Getting Mike Montgomery to come to Ann Arbor would be a godsend. He is the architect of the 90's Stanford program that went to the NCAA Tournament ten straight seasons. Montgomery recruited with the best by stockpiling NBA talent. Montgomery is the kind of coach that builds a program for the long term. He makes the most out of his talent. He has had plenty of success grooming big-men and guards alike. He has won numerous national coach of the year awards and reached the Final Four in 1998. He probably won't stay out of coaching long so Michigan would have to let him know if they are interested.
5). Todd Lickliter Butler Head Coach
Lickliter has turned Butler into a national power which is certainly no easy task. This season alone, Butler has defeated Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Purdue, and Indiana. None of those five wins were at home. Butler doesn't have nearly the national recruiting reputation as any of those schools so it's clear that Lickliter makes the most of his talent.
In his first season at Butler, Lickliter went 24-5. This year, Lickliter has Butler on track for a 30-win season. This is a guy that can build a basketball program and keep it running even with second-tier talent. He has also proven that his teams can win away from home.
6). John Beilein West Virginia Head Coach
John Beilein has revolutionized the West Virginia basketball program. Before Beilein took over, I can't ever remember WVU having a competitive basketball team. Beilein is one of the best "pure" coaches in college basketball. Whereas some coaches are better recruiters, Beilein's assets are clearly found on the basketball court. He will be able to win with whatever talent he is given. The year before Beilein took over the WVU program, the Mountaineers went 1-15 in the Big East. That win total has increased every year under Beilein culminating in an 11-5 record in ’06.
Under Beilein, West Virginia has had no problem winning on the road. He is 5-2 in the NCAA Tournament with one loss coming by three points and the other coming in overtime. Over the last two and a half seasons, West Virginia is 12-14 on the road in conference play. Those 12 wins on the road in two and a half seasons are just two less road wins than Amaker has had in six seasons—and Beilein inherited a program that was 1-15 in conference the year before. In 2006 alone, West Virginia defeated three teams in the RPI 14 on the road.
7). Jeff Bzdelik Air Force Head Coach
Bzdelik went 24-6 in his first season at Air Force. That is nothing to be ashamed of but Air Force's rather weak schedule definitely had a lot to do with that success. Two years earlier, Air Force went 22-6 under similar circumstances. To be fair, Bzdelik led Air Force to the NCAA Tournament last season despite having one of the worst resumes of any tournament team ever.
So you're probably wondering why I've got Bzdelik so high on my list. Well, this season has been a completely different story. Air Force has seven wins against the RPI 100 (it had four last year) and that number could grow as high as ten before the season is over. Air Force has beaten Stanford and Texas Tech away from home and UNLV at home. For those of you that know the talent discrepancies that the Academies have to deal with, there is no question that Bzdelik's coaching has been fantastic. I'm guessing that if Air Force puts up another season like this one in '08, Bzdelik won't be the coach at Air Force much longer.
8). Rick Majerus Former Utah Head Coach
I suppose I would rather have Mike Montgomery over Rick Majerus but it isn’t by much. Majerus’ health would be a concern considering he has had weight and heart problems. On a strictly coaching basis, I’m not sure Montgomery even has an edge. Majerus made Utah a national power with a bunch of recruits that nobody wanted. He made numerous NCAA Tournament appearances and molded players that weren’t highly sought after out of high school into first round draft picks. He even led Utah to the National Championship game in 1998.
It would be ideal to bring in a coach that could stay for a while. By bringing in someone like Majerus or Montgomery, you’re probably dealing with a coach that may stay long enough to build a program that can run on auto-pilot like the Michigan of old—or may stay for just a few seasons. That is the price Michigan would have to pay to bring in a coach like that. That certainly would be an upgrade over what’s happening now. It’s just hard to build a recruiting presence and consistency within the program when you know there might be another coaching change in the near future.
9). Trent Johnson Stanford Head Coach
Nevada is where it is today because of Trent Johnson. He took over a Nevada program that had gone 7-18 the year before. Johnson was at Nevada for five seasons where he saw his win total climb every year. His tenure reached a crescendo in year five when his Wolfpack went 25-9 and reached the Sweet Sixteen. He didn’t stick around to enjoy the fruits of his labor. He took over at Stanford after Mike Montgomery left for the NBA. Johnson has kept Stanford in post-season play and is working on another NCAA Tournament appearance. The Stanford program is on the verge of blowing up once again as Johnson has an impressive group of underclassmen.
10). Dana Altman Creighton Head Coach
Altman was hired at Creighton in 1994 where he posted a 7-22 record in his first season. Altman proceeded to turn Creighton into an annual NCAA Tournament team. He has led the Blue Jays to the NCAA Tournament in six of the last eight seasons and he is well on his way to doing the same this season. Creighton has won 20+ games every year since 1999. He has also led Creighton to the Missouri Valley Tournament Championship five times since 1999. I don’t think there is a coach on this list that has done more for a basketball program than Altman. He has built a mid-major into somewhat of a national power. There is no question in my mind that he could restore Michigan’s place on the court as well.
11). Blaine Taylor Old Dominion Head Coach
Taylor is one of the more underrated coaches in college basketball. You don’t hear his name much but he has transformed Old Dominion into an annual mid-major power. Taylor took over Old Dominion after the program had just finished a 12-17 campaign the year before. Four seasons later, Old Dominion went 28-6 on its way to the NCAA Tournament. Taylor is on his way to his third straight 20-win season.
Taylor also took the Montana basketball program to new heights before signing on at ODU. In seven seasons at Montana, he went 142-65 with five 20-win seasons and two NCAA Tournament appearances. Taylor coached under Mike Montgomery at both Montana and Stanford.
12). Chris Lowery Southern Illinois Head Coach
Chris Lowery is a disciple of Bruce Weber. Lowery coached under Weber at both S. Illinois and Illinois. Lowery is only 34 but already seems to have the fine art of recruiting down. He has been lauded for his ability to sell his basketball program. In his first season at S. Illinois, Lowery won the Missouri Valley Conference Coach of the Year Award at the age of 32. He is 68-24 at S. Illinois and will likely have the Salukis in the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season.
13). Mike Brey Notre Dame Head Coach
Brey has done for Notre Dame what Beilein has done for West Virginia. Brey did have the foundation that Matt Doherty left but considering Notre Dame hadn't reached the NCAA Tournament in more than ten years, Brey had some work to do. Notre Dame's success wasn't as immediate or as substantial as West Virginia's but Notre Dame can be expected to suit up a pretty competitive team year in and year out. Most importantly, Brey has made Notre Dame an annual threat in the loaded Big East.
Brey had previously coached at Delaware where he compiled a record of 99-52 and two trips to the NCAA Tournament. Brey, like Amaker, was an assistant for Coach K. Although, Brey's success at Delaware and Notre Dame have been exceedingly more impressive than what Amaker has done at Michigan and Seton Hall.
14). Barry Hinson Missouri State Head Coach
Barry Hinson has put Missouri State on the map. The Bears won at Wisconsin in the one of the most impressive victories in college basketball in ’07. Missouri St. was robbed by the Selection Committee last season becoming the highest rated team to ever be left out of the NCAA Tournament. Hinson coached under Bill Self at Oral Roberts before taking over as the head coach at Missouri St.. While Self has become one of the elite coaches in college basketball, Hinson’s stock has been rising as well.
15). Dave Rose BYU Head Coach
The year before Rose took over as head coach at BYU, the Cougars were 9-21. That makes Rose’s first year tally of 20-9 all the more impressive. To prove that wasn’t a fluke, Rose has BYU in even better shape in 2007. The Cougars are in first place in the Mountain West Conference which features Air Force and UNLV. BYU owns victories over both of those schools in ’07. BYU has an RPI of 24 and looks to be headed to the NCAA Tournament at the very least as an at-large selection.
16). Seth Greenberg Virginia Tech Head Coach
The theme of this list involves schools that used to be terrible but aren’t anymore because they hired the right guy. Virginia Tech fits right in. Ask any knowledgeable college basketball fan to name one player that has played basketball for Virginia Tech and you’ll either get “I don’t know any” or “Ace Custis” as your answer. In fact, I have seen a handful of Virginia Tech games this year and I swear that the announcers mentioned “Ace Custis” in every game. It has been a long time since Virginia Tech wasn’t terrible at basketball. Unfortunately for Ace, Greenberg’s success at Virginia Tech likely marks the end of Ace’s stranglehold on all things Virginia Tech basketball.
Greenberg put together strong programs at Long Beach St. and S. Florida before taking on the task of rebuilding Virginia Tech. He has been successful at every location. He currently has Virginia Tech ahead of Duke in the ACC standings. He also has Virginia Tech in line for an at-large selection out of the ACC which was unheard of before this season.
17). Oliver Purnell Clemson Head Coach
Purnell is a veteran coach who is no stranger to turning around basketball programs. He took over a Radford program that had gone 7-22 the previous season. Purnell’s influence sparked a 15-game improvement in just one season. He then took over a dreadful Dayton program that had won just 17 games in the previous four seasons combined. Purnell guided Dayton to two NCAA Tournament appearances and a bevy of wins over NCAA powerhouses. Purnell had Dayton ranked in the top 25 in each of his last two seasons before leaving for Clemson.
Purnell’s most recent accomplishments have been his most impressive. When Purnell took over Clemson in 2003, the Tigers were the worst program in the ACC. Just four years later, Purnell has Clemson in line for its first NCAA Tournament bid since 1997.
18). Scott Sutton Oral Roberts Head Coach
Perhaps no coach on this list has been directly influenced by a more impressive collection of mentors. Sutton is, of course, the son of legendary coach Eddie Sutton. His brother, Sean, is now the head coach at Oklahoma St. Sutton started his coaching career as an assistant at Oral Roberts under Bill Self and later under Barry Hinson.
Sutton has the Oral Roberts steamrolling towards a second consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament and a third straight 20-win season. ORU pulled off a monumental upset winning at Kansas earlier in the year.
19). Mark Turgeon Wichita State Head Coach
Turgeon’s win totals at Wichita St. have climbed every year since 2001. That culminated in one of the best seasons in school history in 2006 which featured a 26-9 record and a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. The Wichita St. basketball program was struggling mightily when Turgeon arrived in 2000. Now it is one of the premier programs in the MVC. The MVC is raided for coaches by the power conferences seemingly ever year. Turgeon will be the answer for a struggling program very soon.
20). Jim Les Bradley Head Coach
In 2003, Les took over a struggling Bradley program that had lost 20 games the previous season. In just four seasons, Les took Bradley from a 20-loss program to an NCAA Tournament at-large selection. In 2006, Bradley had ten victories over the RPI 100 including two shocking upsets in the NCAA Tournament over Kansas and Pittsburgh. Bradley is now one of the premier teams in the up and coming Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley is once again in the RPI 50 in ’07. I’m guessing that one more season like the 2006 campaign will be Les’ last year at Bradley.
21). Mark Fox Nevada Head Coach
In two and a half seasons at Nevada, Mark Fox is 72-15. He has won the WAC Coach of the Year award in each of his first two seasons. By the end of this season, Fox will have 25+ wins in each of his three seasons at Nevada. Fox was an assistant at Nevada under Trent Johnson who has since gone on to Stanford where he has continued that program’s winning ways.
22). Gregg Marshall Winthrop Head Coach
Gregg Marshall has been a sought after coach for a few years now. NC State was interested in Marshall to replace Herb Sendek. There is no questioning Marshall’s accomplishments at Winthrop. His teams have dominated the Big South conference winnings the Big South regular season five times and the Big South Tournament six times in just eight seasons. Winthrop is arguably having its best season yet in 2007 as it narrowly lost to Wisconsin in overtime and came within seven points of beating North Carolina. Winthrop still hasn’t produced the marquee wins that have solidified the programs in the MVC but Marshall seems to have his program on the right track.
The problem with bringing in a coach from a school like Winthrop is not knowing how a coach’s success in a very poor conference translates to a power conference. The vast majority of Winthrop’s games are against some of the worst teams in college basketball. The only way to know is to look at Winthrop’s results against good competition. The number of games that Winthrop has played against good competition is extremely small. If I had to make a guess, I would say Marshall could probably win anywhere. Remember, before Marshall came aboard, Winthrop was just another bad basketball program.
23). Tom Pecora Hofstra Head Coach
Pecora has turned Hofstra into one of the elite mid-major basketball programs. Over the last two and a half seasons, Hofstra is 64-23. Last season, Hofstra was easily one of the top 40 teams in college basketball despite getting hosed by the NCAA Selection Committee. Hofstra defeated George Mason twice in two weeks to end the regular season at 24-6 and 30th in the RPI. George Mason was an at-large selection in the NCAA Tournament where it made a remarkable run to the Final Four.
Pecora coached under Jay Wright for seven seasons at Hofstra before Wright left for Villanova. Wright has made Villanova a household name garnering a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season.
24). Stew Morrill Utah St. Head Coach
Morrill has single-handedly made Utah St. a mid-major behemoth. Heading into the 2007 season, Morrill had a 190-63 record at Utah St. in eight seasons. Under Morrill, Utah St. has been to five NCAA Tournaments and is en route to its 8th straight 20-win season. Over the last seven seasons, Utah St. has a 77.8 winning percentage which is the fourth best rate in the nation over that time. Morrill also had winning programs at Colorado St. and Montana. He coached under Mike Montgomery and Jud Heathcote.
25). Darrin Horn Western Kentucky Head Coach
Michigan fans might remember Horn when he led Western Kentucky over the Wolverines in the first round of the 1995 NCAA Tournament. Horn is the youngest coach on this list (32) but he is hardly short on accomplishments. He coached under Tom Crean at Marquette where he acted as the recruiting coordinator. He was largely responsible for luring Dwyane Wade to Marquette. He was also a member of Marquette’s Final Four coaching staff in 2003.
Horn has increased his win total at Western Kentucky in each of his first three seasons and could very well do the same again this season. His career record at WKU stands at 77-38. He will be one of the top coaching candidates in America very shortly.
26). Larry Reynolds Long Beach State Head Coach
In Larry Reynolds’ first season at Long Beach St., his team was the worst team in the Big West. Five seasons later, Long Beach St. is, far and away, the best team in the conference. Reynolds has his team on the cusp of the RPI 100 (101) and in line for a 20-win season and an NCAA Tournament bid. Reynolds has had tremendous success at the D-II level before coming to LBSU. Here is an article discussing LBSU’s rise under Reynolds.
Quick Fix for the Short Term
There are a number of veteran coaches that could help Michigan in the short term. George Mason’s Jim Larranaga, Davidson’s Bob McKillop, Holy Cross’ Ralph Willard, Cal. St. Fullerton’s Bob Burton and, former Washington State coach, Dick Bennett come to mind. Hiring a younger coach would be the ideal situation.
The Tubby Smith Option
Tubby Smith Kentucky Head Coach
I don’t think Tubby Smith would ever leave Kentucky for Michigan but I do think his time at Kentucky might be limited. Kentucky fans aren’t happy with the success (or lack thereof) Smith has had in Lexington. Smith is a superb recruiter and a more than adequate basketball coach. I don’t think he is the end all but I would not be upset if he somehow ended up in Ann Arbor.
Amaker’s tenure has been marked by a lack of preparedness and a noticeable lack of progression by his players. It is amazing how many times I have spoken to Michigan basketball fans who agree that Dion Harris, Lester Abram, and Courtney Sims were actually better during their freshman year than they are as seniors. I suppose an argument could be made that they were just overrated to begin with but that really makes no difference. Even overrated players improve over four seasons. Harris, Abram, and Sims are hardly the only players that have not progressed under Amaker. In fact, I can’t name a single player that noticeably improved from their freshman year. If that isn’t an indictment on Amaker, then I don’t know what is.
If Michigan is going to get back to its winning ways on the court, it will have to do what so many struggling basketball programs have done—bring in a proven winner. A proven winner is not necessarily the same as a big-name coach. They can be the same—but they don’t have to be. Michigan probably won’t have the luxury of bringing in a big name and that might not be such a bad thing. It’s not hard to find a coach that has won consistently at multiple institutions. Some of the best coaches in America are coaches that nobody had even heard of five years ago.
Quick turnarounds are not as hard as Amaker has made them out to be. It certainly shouldn’t take six years. It took all of six months before Bob Huggins transformed Kansas St. from an awful program into a serious candidate for the NCAA Tournament. Huggins might not be your “cup of tea” since he has had issues in the past but there are plenty of coaches like Huggins. Michigan took a chance in hiring Amaker because he hadn’t really accomplished anything tangible in his coaching career. He “supposedly” had the pedigree but whether he could lead a college basketball program to great things was not known. Amaker has been a coach for ten seasons. Look at any other coaching resume of ten seasons and you’ll know immediately if you’re dealing with a good coach or an average coach. It doesn’t take good coaches ten seasons to find their niche.
I cited a few statistics last week in a post that I wrote regarding Amaker’s tenure. Most of those statistics featured won/loss records on the road and records against other Big Ten teams. What I didn’t get into was margin of defeat. While Michigan is 5-36 on the road against teams that aren’t Penn St. and Northwestern, the average margin of defeat in those 36 losses is 16 points. Since Amaker took over in 2002, Michigan’s average margin of defeat on the road is actually worse than Northwestern’s. Since Northwestern doesn’t have the luxury of playing itself twice per season, its road schedule has actually been more difficult than Michigan’s. It’s one thing for a team to lose too often but it’s a completely different thing to lose too often by a gazillion points. My point here is that Michigan isn’t even close to breaking through. It’s not like Amaker has been stung by fluke losses. For six seasons he has had decent players but nothing has changed since year one. His teams either beat very bad teams or lose by a lot to good teams. Almost any coach could accomplish the same thing.
Michigan needs to hire a coach that can stamp an identity onto the program. That coach needs to be a coach that has actually led a program beyond expectations in the past. That coach needs to be a coach that has helped decent players become great players. The next coach can’t be a coach with “potential”. There are far too many coaches available that have proven the ability to do all of the things that Amaker was supposed to be able to do. I understand Bill Martin wants to reward Amaker for keeping the program out of trouble and for taking a huge mess without complaining. Unfortunately for Martin and Amaker, the fanbase has much higher expectations than a nice basketball coach leading an underachieving program.
Here is a list of candidates that Michigan should seriously consider if it decides to move beyond the Amaker era. I only included coaches that might actually want to coach at Michigan. I can’t see Jamie Dixon leaving Pittsburgh or Jay Wright leaving Villanova. Those are basketball schools that are legitimate championship contenders. I’m not saying that Michigan is a better job than every school on this list. I just think that these coaches would at least listen to Michigan if it called. There really is no harm in “shooting for the stars” but I chose not to waste everyone’s time with that. I also did not include coaches that just started at a new school like Anthony Grant (VCU), Bobby Gonzalez (Seton Hall), and Greg McDermott (Iowa St.) among others. Those coaches could be ready to move on to bigger and better places (whether Michigan is bigger and better remains to be seen) in a few years.
Michigan Basketball Coaching Candidates
1). Tom Crean Marquette Head Coach
Whether you like Tom Izzo or not, there is no question that he is one of the top coaches in college basketball. Crean is probably the closest thing there is to Izzo. In fact, Crean's time at Marquette is remarkably similar to Izzo's time at MSU. Both hovered around .500 in their first two seasons before seeing their programs blow up. Crean coached under Izzo at MSU. He has put Marquette back on the map. He was an excellent recruiter at MSU and continues to be an excellent recruiter at Marquette. Crean has won at least 19 games in each of the last six seasons including a trip to the Final Four in 2003. Marquette handled its move to the Big East brilliantly which is saying a lot considering how much better the Big East is than Marquette's former conference--Conference USA.
Crean also has a Michigan connection as he is Jim Harbaugh's brother-in-law. Getting Crean to leave Marquette may be a tough sell but it is certainly worth a shot. I don't think there is any question that Crean would return Michigan to its glory days.
2). Billy Gillispie Texas A&M Head Coach
I don't think there is a more impressive coach in college basketball right now than Billy Gillispie. Texas A&M hadn't had a good college basketball program in my lifetime until Gillispie came aboard. He is on his way to a third 20-win season in three years at A&M. The year before Gillispie arrived, A&M was 7-21. In Gillispie's first year, he went 21-10. He followed that with a 22-9 record and a trip to the NCAA Tournament. In his third season, he has A&M firmly in the top ten and in line for a two or three seed in the tournament.
Gillispie is no one-trick pony either. He took over the UTEP program in 2002. In his first season, UTEP went 6-24. In his second season, he took UTEP to the NCAA Tournament with a 24-8 record. This is the kind of coach that Michigan fans have been clamoring for. He preaches defense without yielding disorganization on offense. He clearly makes the most out of his talent as the cupboards were certainly not full when he arrived at UTEP and Texas A&M. The trick here would be getting Gillispie to leave Texas A&M.
3). Lon Kruger UNLV Head Coach
Lon Kruger is one of the top ten coaches in college basketball hands down. He coached Kansas St. for four years from 1986-1990. He took his team to the NCAA Tournament all four seasons. Then, he moved on to Florida which had gone 7-21 the previous season. After six seasons and a trip to the Final Four with Dan Cross, Andrew DeClerq, and D’meat Hook (Dametri Hill), Kruger left Florida as a national powerhouse to coach Illinois. In four seasons at Illinois, he led his teams to the second round of the NCAA Tournament three times.
After an unsuccessful stint in the NBA, Kruger returned to coaching at UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels are once again among the nation top programs thanks to Kruger. Kruger won 15 games in his first season and improved to 17 wins in his second season. Now in his third season, Kruger has UNLV 10th in the RPI with wins over Nevada, BYU, and Texas Tech. Kruger has never failed to deliver a winning program at four different Universities. He might be the surest thing to guaranteed success that Michigan will find.
4). Mike Montgomery Former Stanford Head Coach
Getting Mike Montgomery to come to Ann Arbor would be a godsend. He is the architect of the 90's Stanford program that went to the NCAA Tournament ten straight seasons. Montgomery recruited with the best by stockpiling NBA talent. Montgomery is the kind of coach that builds a program for the long term. He makes the most out of his talent. He has had plenty of success grooming big-men and guards alike. He has won numerous national coach of the year awards and reached the Final Four in 1998. He probably won't stay out of coaching long so Michigan would have to let him know if they are interested.
5). Todd Lickliter Butler Head Coach
Lickliter has turned Butler into a national power which is certainly no easy task. This season alone, Butler has defeated Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Purdue, and Indiana. None of those five wins were at home. Butler doesn't have nearly the national recruiting reputation as any of those schools so it's clear that Lickliter makes the most of his talent.
In his first season at Butler, Lickliter went 24-5. This year, Lickliter has Butler on track for a 30-win season. This is a guy that can build a basketball program and keep it running even with second-tier talent. He has also proven that his teams can win away from home.
6). John Beilein West Virginia Head Coach
John Beilein has revolutionized the West Virginia basketball program. Before Beilein took over, I can't ever remember WVU having a competitive basketball team. Beilein is one of the best "pure" coaches in college basketball. Whereas some coaches are better recruiters, Beilein's assets are clearly found on the basketball court. He will be able to win with whatever talent he is given. The year before Beilein took over the WVU program, the Mountaineers went 1-15 in the Big East. That win total has increased every year under Beilein culminating in an 11-5 record in ’06.
Under Beilein, West Virginia has had no problem winning on the road. He is 5-2 in the NCAA Tournament with one loss coming by three points and the other coming in overtime. Over the last two and a half seasons, West Virginia is 12-14 on the road in conference play. Those 12 wins on the road in two and a half seasons are just two less road wins than Amaker has had in six seasons—and Beilein inherited a program that was 1-15 in conference the year before. In 2006 alone, West Virginia defeated three teams in the RPI 14 on the road.
7). Jeff Bzdelik Air Force Head Coach
Bzdelik went 24-6 in his first season at Air Force. That is nothing to be ashamed of but Air Force's rather weak schedule definitely had a lot to do with that success. Two years earlier, Air Force went 22-6 under similar circumstances. To be fair, Bzdelik led Air Force to the NCAA Tournament last season despite having one of the worst resumes of any tournament team ever.
So you're probably wondering why I've got Bzdelik so high on my list. Well, this season has been a completely different story. Air Force has seven wins against the RPI 100 (it had four last year) and that number could grow as high as ten before the season is over. Air Force has beaten Stanford and Texas Tech away from home and UNLV at home. For those of you that know the talent discrepancies that the Academies have to deal with, there is no question that Bzdelik's coaching has been fantastic. I'm guessing that if Air Force puts up another season like this one in '08, Bzdelik won't be the coach at Air Force much longer.
8). Rick Majerus Former Utah Head Coach
I suppose I would rather have Mike Montgomery over Rick Majerus but it isn’t by much. Majerus’ health would be a concern considering he has had weight and heart problems. On a strictly coaching basis, I’m not sure Montgomery even has an edge. Majerus made Utah a national power with a bunch of recruits that nobody wanted. He made numerous NCAA Tournament appearances and molded players that weren’t highly sought after out of high school into first round draft picks. He even led Utah to the National Championship game in 1998.
It would be ideal to bring in a coach that could stay for a while. By bringing in someone like Majerus or Montgomery, you’re probably dealing with a coach that may stay long enough to build a program that can run on auto-pilot like the Michigan of old—or may stay for just a few seasons. That is the price Michigan would have to pay to bring in a coach like that. That certainly would be an upgrade over what’s happening now. It’s just hard to build a recruiting presence and consistency within the program when you know there might be another coaching change in the near future.
9). Trent Johnson Stanford Head Coach
Nevada is where it is today because of Trent Johnson. He took over a Nevada program that had gone 7-18 the year before. Johnson was at Nevada for five seasons where he saw his win total climb every year. His tenure reached a crescendo in year five when his Wolfpack went 25-9 and reached the Sweet Sixteen. He didn’t stick around to enjoy the fruits of his labor. He took over at Stanford after Mike Montgomery left for the NBA. Johnson has kept Stanford in post-season play and is working on another NCAA Tournament appearance. The Stanford program is on the verge of blowing up once again as Johnson has an impressive group of underclassmen.
10). Dana Altman Creighton Head Coach
Altman was hired at Creighton in 1994 where he posted a 7-22 record in his first season. Altman proceeded to turn Creighton into an annual NCAA Tournament team. He has led the Blue Jays to the NCAA Tournament in six of the last eight seasons and he is well on his way to doing the same this season. Creighton has won 20+ games every year since 1999. He has also led Creighton to the Missouri Valley Tournament Championship five times since 1999. I don’t think there is a coach on this list that has done more for a basketball program than Altman. He has built a mid-major into somewhat of a national power. There is no question in my mind that he could restore Michigan’s place on the court as well.
11). Blaine Taylor Old Dominion Head Coach
Taylor is one of the more underrated coaches in college basketball. You don’t hear his name much but he has transformed Old Dominion into an annual mid-major power. Taylor took over Old Dominion after the program had just finished a 12-17 campaign the year before. Four seasons later, Old Dominion went 28-6 on its way to the NCAA Tournament. Taylor is on his way to his third straight 20-win season.
Taylor also took the Montana basketball program to new heights before signing on at ODU. In seven seasons at Montana, he went 142-65 with five 20-win seasons and two NCAA Tournament appearances. Taylor coached under Mike Montgomery at both Montana and Stanford.
12). Chris Lowery Southern Illinois Head Coach
Chris Lowery is a disciple of Bruce Weber. Lowery coached under Weber at both S. Illinois and Illinois. Lowery is only 34 but already seems to have the fine art of recruiting down. He has been lauded for his ability to sell his basketball program. In his first season at S. Illinois, Lowery won the Missouri Valley Conference Coach of the Year Award at the age of 32. He is 68-24 at S. Illinois and will likely have the Salukis in the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season.
13). Mike Brey Notre Dame Head Coach
Brey has done for Notre Dame what Beilein has done for West Virginia. Brey did have the foundation that Matt Doherty left but considering Notre Dame hadn't reached the NCAA Tournament in more than ten years, Brey had some work to do. Notre Dame's success wasn't as immediate or as substantial as West Virginia's but Notre Dame can be expected to suit up a pretty competitive team year in and year out. Most importantly, Brey has made Notre Dame an annual threat in the loaded Big East.
Brey had previously coached at Delaware where he compiled a record of 99-52 and two trips to the NCAA Tournament. Brey, like Amaker, was an assistant for Coach K. Although, Brey's success at Delaware and Notre Dame have been exceedingly more impressive than what Amaker has done at Michigan and Seton Hall.
14). Barry Hinson Missouri State Head Coach
Barry Hinson has put Missouri State on the map. The Bears won at Wisconsin in the one of the most impressive victories in college basketball in ’07. Missouri St. was robbed by the Selection Committee last season becoming the highest rated team to ever be left out of the NCAA Tournament. Hinson coached under Bill Self at Oral Roberts before taking over as the head coach at Missouri St.. While Self has become one of the elite coaches in college basketball, Hinson’s stock has been rising as well.
15). Dave Rose BYU Head Coach
The year before Rose took over as head coach at BYU, the Cougars were 9-21. That makes Rose’s first year tally of 20-9 all the more impressive. To prove that wasn’t a fluke, Rose has BYU in even better shape in 2007. The Cougars are in first place in the Mountain West Conference which features Air Force and UNLV. BYU owns victories over both of those schools in ’07. BYU has an RPI of 24 and looks to be headed to the NCAA Tournament at the very least as an at-large selection.
16). Seth Greenberg Virginia Tech Head Coach
The theme of this list involves schools that used to be terrible but aren’t anymore because they hired the right guy. Virginia Tech fits right in. Ask any knowledgeable college basketball fan to name one player that has played basketball for Virginia Tech and you’ll either get “I don’t know any” or “Ace Custis” as your answer. In fact, I have seen a handful of Virginia Tech games this year and I swear that the announcers mentioned “Ace Custis” in every game. It has been a long time since Virginia Tech wasn’t terrible at basketball. Unfortunately for Ace, Greenberg’s success at Virginia Tech likely marks the end of Ace’s stranglehold on all things Virginia Tech basketball.
Greenberg put together strong programs at Long Beach St. and S. Florida before taking on the task of rebuilding Virginia Tech. He has been successful at every location. He currently has Virginia Tech ahead of Duke in the ACC standings. He also has Virginia Tech in line for an at-large selection out of the ACC which was unheard of before this season.
17). Oliver Purnell Clemson Head Coach
Purnell is a veteran coach who is no stranger to turning around basketball programs. He took over a Radford program that had gone 7-22 the previous season. Purnell’s influence sparked a 15-game improvement in just one season. He then took over a dreadful Dayton program that had won just 17 games in the previous four seasons combined. Purnell guided Dayton to two NCAA Tournament appearances and a bevy of wins over NCAA powerhouses. Purnell had Dayton ranked in the top 25 in each of his last two seasons before leaving for Clemson.
Purnell’s most recent accomplishments have been his most impressive. When Purnell took over Clemson in 2003, the Tigers were the worst program in the ACC. Just four years later, Purnell has Clemson in line for its first NCAA Tournament bid since 1997.
18). Scott Sutton Oral Roberts Head Coach
Perhaps no coach on this list has been directly influenced by a more impressive collection of mentors. Sutton is, of course, the son of legendary coach Eddie Sutton. His brother, Sean, is now the head coach at Oklahoma St. Sutton started his coaching career as an assistant at Oral Roberts under Bill Self and later under Barry Hinson.
Sutton has the Oral Roberts steamrolling towards a second consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament and a third straight 20-win season. ORU pulled off a monumental upset winning at Kansas earlier in the year.
19). Mark Turgeon Wichita State Head Coach
Turgeon’s win totals at Wichita St. have climbed every year since 2001. That culminated in one of the best seasons in school history in 2006 which featured a 26-9 record and a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. The Wichita St. basketball program was struggling mightily when Turgeon arrived in 2000. Now it is one of the premier programs in the MVC. The MVC is raided for coaches by the power conferences seemingly ever year. Turgeon will be the answer for a struggling program very soon.
20). Jim Les Bradley Head Coach
In 2003, Les took over a struggling Bradley program that had lost 20 games the previous season. In just four seasons, Les took Bradley from a 20-loss program to an NCAA Tournament at-large selection. In 2006, Bradley had ten victories over the RPI 100 including two shocking upsets in the NCAA Tournament over Kansas and Pittsburgh. Bradley is now one of the premier teams in the up and coming Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley is once again in the RPI 50 in ’07. I’m guessing that one more season like the 2006 campaign will be Les’ last year at Bradley.
21). Mark Fox Nevada Head Coach
In two and a half seasons at Nevada, Mark Fox is 72-15. He has won the WAC Coach of the Year award in each of his first two seasons. By the end of this season, Fox will have 25+ wins in each of his three seasons at Nevada. Fox was an assistant at Nevada under Trent Johnson who has since gone on to Stanford where he has continued that program’s winning ways.
22). Gregg Marshall Winthrop Head Coach
Gregg Marshall has been a sought after coach for a few years now. NC State was interested in Marshall to replace Herb Sendek. There is no questioning Marshall’s accomplishments at Winthrop. His teams have dominated the Big South conference winnings the Big South regular season five times and the Big South Tournament six times in just eight seasons. Winthrop is arguably having its best season yet in 2007 as it narrowly lost to Wisconsin in overtime and came within seven points of beating North Carolina. Winthrop still hasn’t produced the marquee wins that have solidified the programs in the MVC but Marshall seems to have his program on the right track.
The problem with bringing in a coach from a school like Winthrop is not knowing how a coach’s success in a very poor conference translates to a power conference. The vast majority of Winthrop’s games are against some of the worst teams in college basketball. The only way to know is to look at Winthrop’s results against good competition. The number of games that Winthrop has played against good competition is extremely small. If I had to make a guess, I would say Marshall could probably win anywhere. Remember, before Marshall came aboard, Winthrop was just another bad basketball program.
23). Tom Pecora Hofstra Head Coach
Pecora has turned Hofstra into one of the elite mid-major basketball programs. Over the last two and a half seasons, Hofstra is 64-23. Last season, Hofstra was easily one of the top 40 teams in college basketball despite getting hosed by the NCAA Selection Committee. Hofstra defeated George Mason twice in two weeks to end the regular season at 24-6 and 30th in the RPI. George Mason was an at-large selection in the NCAA Tournament where it made a remarkable run to the Final Four.
Pecora coached under Jay Wright for seven seasons at Hofstra before Wright left for Villanova. Wright has made Villanova a household name garnering a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season.
24). Stew Morrill Utah St. Head Coach
Morrill has single-handedly made Utah St. a mid-major behemoth. Heading into the 2007 season, Morrill had a 190-63 record at Utah St. in eight seasons. Under Morrill, Utah St. has been to five NCAA Tournaments and is en route to its 8th straight 20-win season. Over the last seven seasons, Utah St. has a 77.8 winning percentage which is the fourth best rate in the nation over that time. Morrill also had winning programs at Colorado St. and Montana. He coached under Mike Montgomery and Jud Heathcote.
25). Darrin Horn Western Kentucky Head Coach
Michigan fans might remember Horn when he led Western Kentucky over the Wolverines in the first round of the 1995 NCAA Tournament. Horn is the youngest coach on this list (32) but he is hardly short on accomplishments. He coached under Tom Crean at Marquette where he acted as the recruiting coordinator. He was largely responsible for luring Dwyane Wade to Marquette. He was also a member of Marquette’s Final Four coaching staff in 2003.
Horn has increased his win total at Western Kentucky in each of his first three seasons and could very well do the same again this season. His career record at WKU stands at 77-38. He will be one of the top coaching candidates in America very shortly.
26). Larry Reynolds Long Beach State Head Coach
In Larry Reynolds’ first season at Long Beach St., his team was the worst team in the Big West. Five seasons later, Long Beach St. is, far and away, the best team in the conference. Reynolds has his team on the cusp of the RPI 100 (101) and in line for a 20-win season and an NCAA Tournament bid. Reynolds has had tremendous success at the D-II level before coming to LBSU. Here is an article discussing LBSU’s rise under Reynolds.
Quick Fix for the Short Term
There are a number of veteran coaches that could help Michigan in the short term. George Mason’s Jim Larranaga, Davidson’s Bob McKillop, Holy Cross’ Ralph Willard, Cal. St. Fullerton’s Bob Burton and, former Washington State coach, Dick Bennett come to mind. Hiring a younger coach would be the ideal situation.
The Tubby Smith Option
Tubby Smith Kentucky Head Coach
I don’t think Tubby Smith would ever leave Kentucky for Michigan but I do think his time at Kentucky might be limited. Kentucky fans aren’t happy with the success (or lack thereof) Smith has had in Lexington. Smith is a superb recruiter and a more than adequate basketball coach. I don’t think he is the end all but I would not be upset if he somehow ended up in Ann Arbor.
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