NCAA Tournament Projections (Week of January 28)

I certainly did not expect to see so much change in just one week. By my count, three teams jumped into the tournament field based on strong performances. Vanderbilt and Stanford both went 2-0 while Creighton climbed to 8-3 in conference which leads (tied with S. Illinois) the MVC by two full games. Some of the stronger candidates from earlier in the season are starting to look more like average teams. Alabama, Syracuse, and LSU are three such teams. A team to keep an eye for next week is Virginia. The Cavaliers are 5-2 in the ACC with impressive non-conference victories over Arizona and Gonzaga. Virginia has Duke, Maryland, and Virginia Tech over the next 12 days. We’ll know more about them after that stretch.

My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):


Changes from last week:

In: Vanderbilt, Stanford, Creighton and VCU (CAA Automatic bid)

Out: Alabama, Syracuse, LSU, and Hofstra

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Idaho St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Sacred Heart
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Georgia Tech
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large Maryland
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Drexel
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Syracuse
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Michigan St.
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.

The last five teams in the tourney right now:


1. Creighton

RPI rating: 35
Pomeroy rating: 38

Quality wins: Missouri St., Xavier, @ Northern Iowa, Bradley, and @ Missouri St.

Bad losses: @ Nebraska, @ Fresno St., and @ Hawaii

I’m very impressed by Creighton’s two victories over a Missouri St. team that handed Wisconsin its only loss of the season. I’m equally disturbed by Creighton’s losses to Nebraska, Fresno St., and Hawaii. To be fair, all three of those games were on the road. Had Creighton taken care of business against those teams, it would be safely in the tournament instead of being the last team in. Despite those three blemishes, Creighton is 8-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference. Those that have been following the MVC know how impressive that is. If Creighton can get to 12 wins in the conference, I think it’ll get an at-large bid.

2. Georgia

RPI rating: 38
Pomeroy rating: 24

Quality wins: Gonzaga (neutral), Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, Kentucky, and LSU

Bad losses: none

I can’t keep Georgia out of the tournament if I tried—and trust me I tried. Georgia’s remaining schedule is so difficult that I don’t think it could possibly rack up enough wins to make the tournament. As of now, though, the Bulldogs are barely in. I’m predicting a 9-7 record in the SEC for Georgia. I think it will need to go 10-6 to make the bid dance. That means Georgia has to beat S. Carolina, Auburn, Mississippi, and Mississippi St. and then beat one of the following: Tennessee (2), Florida, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.


3. Drexel

RPI rating: 55
Pomeroy rating: 78

Quality wins: @ Villanova and @ Syracuse

Bad losses: @ Rider and @ Penn

I’m pretty certain that the Colonial Athletic Association is going to get at least two bids to the tournament. The problem is that Drexel and Hofstra don’t have the best RPIs. It’s starting to become clear that Virginia Commonwealth is the best team in the conference. I don’t see another team outside of Drexel and Hofstra with a shot at an at-large bid. Drexel gets the slight nod over Hofstra because of its impressive wins @ Villanova and @ Syracuse.

4. Vanderbilt

RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 48

Quality wins: Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Alabama, @ Kentucky, and LSU
Bad losses: @ Wake Forest, Furman, and @ Auburn

I would really like to see Vanderbilt make the tournament this year but I think the Commodores have less of a shot of making it than Georgia. Vandy’s schedule is probably the toughest remaining schedule of any bubble team. It has to play; Florida (2), Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas. That is six teams in the RPI 38. Throw in a pair of games against a formidable S. Carolina squad and things don’t look promising for Vanderbilt. Nonetheless, if the season ended today, Vandy would make the tournament.


5. USC

RPI rating: 57
Pomeroy rating: 33

Quality wins: George Washington (neutral), Wichita St. (neutral), Washington, @ Oregon, Arizona, and @ California

Bad losses: none

I’m not quite sure why USC’s RPI is so poor. The Trojans haven’t had a “bad” loss yet. They are 6-3 in the Pac-10 including wins over Oregon and Arizona. There is no question in my mind that USC has one of the better resumes among teams fighting for a bid. Despite its good standing, USC has a tough road ahead. A 10-8 record in the Pac-10 might be enough but with its mediocre RPI, I’m guessing USC will have to make it to 11-7 to get a bid.



On the outside looking in:


1. Alabama

RPI rating:
Pomeroy rating:

Quality wins: Xavier (neutral), LSU, and Georgia
Bad losses: @ Auburn
Alabama has a solid RPI but I’m not sure how. Its three “impressive” wins are borderline impressive. It has no victories over a team in the RPI 35. It is 2-4 in the SEC. Four of its five losses have been by 14 or more points. I don’t believe this is a tournament team. Its RPI is the only thing keeping it in consideration right now.

2. Syracuse

RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 45

Quality wins: @ Marquette, Hofstra, and Villanova

Bad losses: @ St. John’s

Drexel doesn’t have as good of an RPI as Syracuse but its quality wins stand up nicely in a comparison. Also, Drexel won at Syracuse. The Orangemen control their own destiny, though. A 10-6 record in the Big East looks to be a lock for Syracuse. That would definitely be enough for a bid.

3. Louisville

RPI rating: 65
Pomeroy rating: 34

Quality wins: Providence and Syracuse
Bad losses: Dayton (neutral)

The Selection Committee could have a situation on its hands if Louisville makes it to 10-6 in the Big East. It’s almost an unwritten rule that if a team in a major conference goes 10-6, it will get a bid. Louisville could get to 10-6 in the Big East without beating a team in the top 46 of the RPI. If Rick Pitino can get his boys to knock off Villanova, Marquette, Georgetown, or Pittsburgh, things might not be so complicated. I don’t see that happening though. This is not a tournament team. Remember that when Louisville is 10-6.

4. Purdue

RPI rating: 44
Pomeroy rating: 42

Quality wins: Virginia, Michigan, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Minnesota


If the Big Ten is going to get five teams in the tournament, then Purdue will be the fifth team. However, it’s not going to happen. I don’t see how Purdue could possibly finish better than 8-8 in conference play. That would certainly not be enough for a bid considering how terrible the Big Ten has been this season.

5. BYU

RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 63

Quality wins: Air Force
Bad losses: @ Boise St., @ Lamar, and @ Colorado St.

Air Force made the tournament last season with an atrocious schedule and no wins even remotely close to being impressive. So I guess BYU has that going for it. The Cougars have one win worth nothing and three times as many terrible losses. If the season ended today, I’m guessing the Selection Committee would hand BYU a bid. I have no confidence in the committee’s ability to separate fraud’s from legitimate contenders. BYU isn’t terrible but it doesn’t have anything close to a tournament-worthy resume.

6. Virginia
7. Hofstra
8. LSU
9. Kansas St.
10. Providence
11. Illinois
12. Bradley



Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament

#34 Alabama
#36 BYU
#40 Bradley
#43 Michigan
#44 Purdue
#45 Illinois
#47 Syracuse
#51 Virginia
#56 Kansas St.
#59 Providence
#60 California


Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections

#58 Vanderbilt
#57 USC
#55 Drexel
#54 Northern Iowa
#53 Georgia Tech
#50 Texas
#46 West Virginia
#42 Notre Dame
#39 Missouri St.
#38 Georgia
#37 Georgetown
#35 Creighton




Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (8)


UNC
Duke
BC
Maryland
Ga. Tech
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU

Big East (6)

Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown

SEC (6)


Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Georgia

Pac-10 (6)

UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford

Big XII (5)

Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas

Big Ten (4)

Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
MSU

MVC (4)

Missouri St.
S. Illinois
N. Iowa
Creighton

MWC (2)

Air Force
UNLV

CAA (2)

VCU
Drexel

NCAA Tournament Projections (Week of January 21)

More so than any other year that I can remember, there seems to be a very fine line between tournament worthy teams and the also-rans. I initially thought that this year was unique in the fact that there were so many teams that have a shot at making the tournament. Then I realized that there were so many bad teams that it just looked that way. With the exception of the Missouri Valley Conference and one or two “bubble teams”, most teams have already cemented their status for the post-season. Obviously a lot can change between now and March. A lot can change in just one week.

As it stands now, I’m having a hard time coming up with the “Next Five” teams that are just outside of the field. It seems like the Tournament is just begging for teams like Michigan, Stanford and Vanderbilt to do something. Bids are there for the taking. This weekend will answer a lot of questions in terms of where teams stand for the Tournament. I expect to have a much better feel for the field on Monday.

My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what it will do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):

1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial Hofstra
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Idaho St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Sacred Heart
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Georgia Tech
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large Maryland
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Alabama
43 At-Large LSU
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Syracuse
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Michigan St.
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Drexel
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large N. Iowa
65 At-Large Michigan

This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be up to five teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets if not more.

The last five teams in the tourney right now:

1. Michigan

RPI rating: 39
Pomeroy rating: 40

Quality wins: Illinois and Purdue

Bad losses: @ NC State

Not having any road wins that could even be described as remotely good will be Michigan’s undoing. Illinois and Purdue are decent teams but both could miss the tournament. Nobody is going to be impressed with a win over Davidson. This team will probably collapse as it has done the last few seasons. The Big Ten will probably only get four teams into the tournament. Michigan would have to do something spectacular against a killer schedule to change that.


2. LSU

RPI rating: 53
Pomeroy rating: 36

Quality wins: Texas A&M and Connecticut

Bad losses: none

LSU might be thought of as a lock for the tournament based on its success from last season. However, it will have a lot of work to do if it’s going to make the 65-team field. The Tigers have only beaten two teams in the RPI 80. Their victory over Connecticut is looking less and less impressive. The good news for LSU is that the remaining schedule is weak at best. LSU should finish no worse than 9-7 in the SEC which should be good enough for a bid considering the SEC’s SOS.


3. West Virginia

RPI rating: 55
Pomeroy rating: 20

Quality wins: Villanova and Connecticut

Bad losses: @ Cincinnati

West Virginia is in a similar position as LSU. Both teams have 1.5 impressive wins and low RPI’s. Like LSU, West Virginia has a lot of winnable games left on its schedule. The Big East will get a lot of attention from the selection committee so a 9-7 record would probably be enough to get a bid. In most years, West Virginia and LSU would be in perilous situations but given the lack of tournament-worthy teams, they are still looking good.

4. N. Iowa

RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 58

Quality wins: @ Iowa, Bradley, @ Wichita St., Southern Illinois, @ Missouri St., and Indiana St.

Bad losses: @ Loyola Chicago, @ Illinois St.

With wins over Southern Illinois and Missouri St., N. Iowa has proven it is one of the best teams in the MVC. The problem is that with a weak RPI and no marquee out of conference wins, its resume is looking a little thin. Obviously if N. Iowa can continue winning in the MVC, it won’t have much of a problem.


5. Texas

RPI rating: 56
Pomeroy rating: 34

Quality wins: LSU (neutral) and Arkansas

Bad losses: None

Texas has a bunch of “cream puffs” coming up which will undoubtedly inflate its record. A 9-7 conference record is almost a lock barring an injury to Kevin Durant. That should be enough to earn Texas a bid.


On the outside looking in:


1. Stanford


RPI rating: 38
Pomeroy rating: 67

Quality wins: Texas Tech and Washington St.
Bad losses: Santa Clara

Stanford’s resume does nothing for me. It will have to beat the top four teams in the conference at least a couple times to be in contention for a bid at season’s end. Stanford’s best road win is a one-point victory at Virginia. This team has the RPI to get into the tournament. Now it just needs a few more big wins.

2. Illinois

RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 33

Quality wins: Bradley (neutral), Missouri (neutral), and Indiana

Bad losses: none

Illinois has a big match-up with Purdue on Saturday. The winner of that game will have a great shot at being the Big Ten’s fourth bid (assuming Michigan takes a nose dive). Illinois has the easiest Big Ten schedule that any team could hope to have. Illinois should go no worse than 6-3 in its remaining nine games. That would be good enough for a 9-7 record in the conference. I’m inclined to believe that would get Illinois in.


3. Purdue

RPI rating: 48
Pomeroy rating: 49

Quality wins: DePaul (neutral), Oklahoma (neutral), and Michigan

Bad losses: @ Minnesota

Purdue has seven wins against the RPI 100. That is one of the highest totals in the country. Only one of the seven wins is in the RPI 50. Before the season began, beating Oklahoma, DePaul, Virginia, and Missouri in non-conference play would have looked very impressive. Now that none of those teams is any good, Purdue is left with a bunch of semi-impressive wins. I think Purdue has to get to 9-7 in the Big Ten. To get there, it will have to pull off an upset along the way.

4. Providence

RPI rating: 63
Pomeroy rating: 62

Quality wins: Boston College, Marquette, and George Washington
Bad losses: Brown and @ Seton Hall


Providence has zero road wins. I haven’t looked it up but I am guessing that no team in college basketball history has received an at-large bid with zero road wins. I doubt Providence will be the first. The best Providence could hope to do in the conference is finish at 8-8 and pray that the Big East’s reputation is enough to get them in. I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

5. Kansas St.

RPI rating: 54
Pomeroy rating: 60

Quality wins: USC (neutral)
Bad losses: @ New Mexico and @ Colorado St.

Kansas St. was my sleeper team to make the tournament this year. I thought the combination of Bob Huggins and Bill Walker would make noise in the Big XII. Unfortunately, Walker suffered a season-ending knee injury. KSU has managed to stay afloat which is a testament to Huggins. If KSU just wins the rest of its games against teams with worse RPI scores, then it will finish 10-6 in the Big XII. That would definitely put KSU in good position.

6. Bradley

RPI rating: 36
Pomeroy rating: 57

Quality wins: DePaul, S. Illinois, @ Indiana St., and Wichita St.
Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech

Bradley is only here because of its RPI. In fact, it was a toss up between Bradley and Creighton. Both have a lot of losses with decent RPI’s. Bradley’s resume is just a little better. The MVC schedule is so brutal that Bradley might struggle to finish 10-8 in the conference. I don’t see a 10-8 MVC team getting a bid.

7. Vanderbilt

RPI rating: 66
Pomeroy rating: 55

Quality wins: Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Alabama, @ Kentucky
Bad losses: @ Wake Forest, Furman, and @ Auburn

I don’t think there is another team in all of college basketball with four wins as impressive as the Commodores. Vandy has two problems. One, it has a brutal loss to Furman. That will be a very large black mark. Two, Vandy may have the toughest remaining schedule of any team in college basketball. LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, and Arkansas may result in a 0-6 record. That would give Vandy 12 losses on the season. If Vandy can win two of those games, I think it’ll get in.


8. Creighton
9. Louisville
10. California
11. Indiana St.
12. UMass
13. UConn
14. BYU
15. Wichita St.
16. Georgia
17. Dayton



Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament

#36 Bradley
#38 Stanford
#41 California
#42 Creighton
#46 Illinois
#48 Purdue
#50 Georgia
#52 BYU
#54 Kansas St.
#57 Davidson
#59 Dayton
#60 Wichita St.


Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections

#58 USC
#56 Texas
#55 West Virginia
#53 LSU
#49 Notre Dame
#45 Northern Iowa
#44 Syracuse
#39 Michigan


Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):

ACC (8)


UNC
Duke
BC
Maryland
Ga. Tech
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU

Big East (7)

Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Georgetown

SEC (6)


Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
LSU
Alabama

Pac-10 (5)

UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC

Big Ten (5)

Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
MSU
Michigan

MVC (3)

Missouri St.
S. Illinois
N. Iowa


MWC (2)

Air Force
UNLV

CAA (2)

Hofstra
Drexel


The Missouri Valley Conference Dilemma

Last season, the MVC proved it could play with the best conferences in America with its success in the NCAA Tournament. This season, the MVC has skyrocketed into the top four of the RPI non-conference ratings. The number of quality wins for the conference is too long to list. The problem isn’t that the MVC is still viewed as a mid-major. I think that the Selection Committee is more than willing to reward the MVC for its non-conference accomplishments. The problem is that despite its amazing RPI score, the conference’s best teams have collectively disappointed in conference play. I am sure that much of the disappointment can be attributed to the strength of the conference from top to bottom. Even the conference’s bottom feeders (Drake, Evansville, and Illinois St.) have impressive wins this season.

Unfortunately for the MVC, its top teams have put themselves in perilous situations in terms of their Selection Sunday fate. An argument can be made that seven teams deserve bids. An argument can also be made that only two teams deserve bids. A similar situation occurred with the MVC last season. I tried to rank every potential tournament team in the conference using the Selection Committee’s standards. I was able to come up with a fairly significant cutoff point where five teams seemed to be deserving of bids. Unfortunately, the Selection Committee made a horrendous decision in leaving Missouri St. out of the tournament. This season is going to be much more difficult. With seven teams having legitimate chances to make the tournament, it is almost impossible to differentiate between them.

The most enjoyable aspect of college basketball last season was following the MVC (and to some extent the Colonial Athletic Association). I encourage anyone who is a college basketball fan to tune in. There are no “gimmes” in the MVC. Just when you think you have something figured out, everything changes. I have no vested interest whatsoever in the MVC other than as a casual fan. From what I’ve seen over the last two years, the MVC is the most exciting conference in America.

C-Webb is the new 'Sheed

Well, the first half the Pistons played last night nearly brought a tear to my eye. I haven’t seen efficiency in the post like that from the Pistons in a long, long time. I can honestly say that I had gotten used to the fact that the Pistons were just going to be a marginal team for the foreseeable future. Joe Dumars had made two good moves (drafting Jason Maxiell and letting Ben Wallace leave) in three years. Rasheed Wallace hasn’t played in the post in two years. None of the Pistons youngsters were improving even the slightest bit. That was the reality of Pistons basketball two months ago.

Thankfully, that isn’t the reality today. The best way to turn around the fortunes of a professional sports franchise is, and always will be, to get something for nothing. The Pistons got Rasheed Wallace for nothing and road him to the NBA Championship. Now, two years later, they have inexplicably added Chris Webber for nothing. The Pistons have used up enough good fortune to last a Detroit Lions playoff drought or 100 years—whichever comes first.

There are only six players in the history of the NBA that have averaged 20+ points 10+ rebound and 4+ assists over an entire career. Webber is one of those six. When Wallace came to Detroit, he stopped playing the way he had played for his first eight years. He became a role player. He didn’t need to be the old Rasheed for the Pistons to win. He just needed to fill in where the Pistons needed him. Webber will do the just the same. He won’t average 20 and 10 with Detroit but his passing skills and his ability to demand a double-team will bring everything the Pistons could ask for and more. Remember those unbelievably mind-numbing, soul-sucking, scoring droughts that the Pistons have gone on over the last few years? Well, those are a thing of the past.

Now, this would have been a whole lot more fun to write about had the Pistons actually won last night. With Billups back in the lineup and Webber making his debut, this had all the makings of a Pistons coming out party. A one-point loss to one of the best teams in the NBA is hardly a cause for concern. Webber and the rest of the Pistons will need to get comfortable before everything clicks. I’m guessing that’ll be sooner than later. My biggest concern is an injury. If everyone is healthy, the Pistons are as good as anyone. If any of the starting five is out, it’s all over. I am definitely worried about the brittle bones and tender ligaments in the legs of C-Webb, ‘Sheed, and Chauncey.

Although the C-Webb addition is certainly the big news, what might be equally important are the developments of Carlos Delfino and Jason Maxiell, and the re-emergence of Antonio McDyess, Lindsey Hunter, and Dale Davis. Delfino and Maxiell are quickly becoming two of my favorite players. Whereas last season I hated it when Delfino had the ball, I actually like it when he is involved in a play. He hustles as much as any player on the team. He has become a much better shooter. He actually looks comfortable out there which is an amazing development from last season. Maxiell is a slightly less talented Barkley (OK, maybe a little more than “slightly”). His jump shot is lethal. His athleticism and hops are phenomenal for a man as big as he is. There is no question that Webber’s arrival will stunt Maxiell’s basketball growth but that is a necessary evil. McDyess, Hunter and Davis are providing a huge lift off the bench. I think the Pistons bench is at least on par with the 2004 bench (Corliss Williamson, Mehmet Okur, Mike James, Elden Campbell, and Lindsey Hunter). Davis is a solid rebounder and a decent defensive presence. Hunter is still amazingly quick as he approaches 60 years of age. McDyess is about as good as a bench player can be. Everybody brings something crucial to the equation. The only thing missing, really, is a legitimate and consistent three-point threat.

One name that I haven’t mentioned is Nazr Mohammed. When I had resigned to the fact that the Pistons were just going to be a slightly above average team this season, I was happy with the way Mohammed was playing. He does everything that you could ask for out of a $5 million/year big-man. In fact, he might actually be a bargain at that price compared to some of the other big-man salaries out there. The problem with Mohammed is that he has convinced himself that getting more minutes on a weak team is more important than playing a back-up role on a great team. Does Mohammed have any idea how many players in the league would love to be making $5 million a year without any pressure on a team with a legitimate chance at winning an NBA Championship? Maybe he’s happy with the ring that he won with San Antonio. Whatever it is, he needs to go. Webber’s presence makes Mohammed expendable. There is no question that Mohammed would provide depth for the inevitable playoff match-up against Shaq and Miami. The good news is that since adding Webber cost virtually nothing, the Pistons can trade Mohammed for a pretty good perimeter player. The Pistons are rumored to be interested in Bonzi Wells, Morris Peterson, and Marko Jaric. I would hope that Jaric would be a distant third on that list. Wells or Peterson would be a huge lift off of the bench. Despite the depth that the Pistons have right now and the improved offensive dynamic, the team could always use scoring and ball-handling.

It never crossed my mind that the Pistons would have a better team this season than last season. Letting Ben Wallace chase faux happiness was absolutely the right move to make but I thought the run of being a legitimate Championship contender ended last season. The addition of Webber makes the Pistons more dangerous than they ever were under Wallace. Even for great defensive teams, it is nearly impossible to win an NBA Championship playing four on five on offense. Webber’s addition changes so many things. Now, the fact that Rasheed Wallace thinks he’s a shooting guard isn’t such a big deal. Webber is more than capable of being the Pistons post-presence when Rasheed forgets that he is 6’11. Webber also makes teams have to play honest defense against Billups, Hamilton, and Prince. Defenses will no longer be able to completely ignore one player (i.e. Ben Wallace and even Nazr Mohammed to some extent). That will create so many more easy buckets which will be a godsend for a team that has struggled to get easy baskets. The Pistons may not be as good defensively as they were with Ben but the increase in offensive prowess will more than offset the slight drop defensively. Plus, Prince and ‘Sheed are two of the better defenders in the league. Webber is a defensive liability when he has to be the primary post defender. That isn’t something he’ll face with the Pistons.

Not only are the Pistons a contender for the Championship now, but they also have a bright future. With Maxiell, Delfino, and Amir Johnson in the fold, the Pistons know they will have three productive young players in the future. Just two years ago, the Pistons had one of the least promising rosters in the NBA in terms of young talent. The Pistons will also have two first round draft picks this June in one of the deepest drafts the league has ever seen. It would be nice to see Orlando finish the season around .500 so at least one of those picks will be in the top 15. With a draft as deep as this one, there are a lot of things that a team can do with two first round picks. Hopefully Dumars can get on another run like he had a few years back. Two first round drafts picks and a young up-and-comer (Amir Johnson, Maxiell, etc.) can go a long way in trade talks. Maybe the Pistons could work their way into a top five draft pick (and make amends for the Darko debacle) or maybe they could trade for someone like Rashard Lewis. The Pistons aren’t going to have the roster room to hold on to the two draft picks so a trade seems likely.

I’m not sure how much Flip Saunders will affect things in the playoffs. In my opinion, the Pistons won the NBA Championship in 2004 in spite of Larry Brown. There will never be a worse offensive team to win an NBA Championship. Still, the Pistons were talented enough to win. That makes me think that whatever deficiencies Saunders has, the Pistons can overcome them. I’m not even certain that Saunders isn’t capable of leading a team to a Championship. I just haven’t seen too much since he’s been here. His biggest chores are to figure out the best rotation and make sure the team peaks in the playoffs. There are a lot of non-starters that will be very important come playoff time. Saunders will need to use them the right way. I can guarantee that Saunders is much happier with Webber and this year’s bench than he was with Ben Wallace and the no-bench from last season. Maybe C-Webb’s arrival will allow Saunders to flourish, or maybe the Pistons can win another Championship in spite of their coach. Either way, the odds of Detroit beating Miami when they meet in the playoffs just went from 1% (basically a Wade or Shaq injury) to about 50%. I’ll take those odds.

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Michigan's next football coach 2007 Edition

Also read updated version: Michigan's Next Football Coach 2007 Final Edition

Michigan is another year closer to hiring a new head football coach. I don't know when it's going to happen but it's going to happen sometime and I am hoping that Bill Martin is prepared. It will likely be the most important decision the Athletic Department has made since 1969. Lloyd Carr has kept the program in good standing for 12 years. That is something that cannot be overlooked by even the most ardent Carr detractors. His good traits as a head coach are obvious. He is a loyal leader of men. He has been with the program for 27 years which has helped keep Michigan football consistent. Carr's lesser traits are just as obvious. The next head coach at Michigan needs to help the program break out of its stubborn ways of playing close to the vest and being afraid to take risks. Carr is so adverse to taking risks that at times it seems as though he would rather knowingly lose by not taking risks than even attempt to take risks at all. That sounds laughable but how else can you explain Michigan avoiding the shotgun like the plague time and time again. The shotgun was the only chance Michigan had at buying enough time for Henne against USC. The shotgun represents a risk to Carr because the Michigan way is for the QB to lineup under center. Unfortunately, eliminating weapons like the shotgun all together simply because it’s not what Michigan football is about seriously handicaps Michigan’s ability to win in situations like the 2007 Rose Bowl. The University prides itself on young, innovative minds. There is no reason for the football staff to be any different. There are a handful of exceptional coaching minds just waiting for the opportunity to take Michigan to the next level.

The program needs a jolt of enthusiasm and innovation. When Carr took over the reigns in 1994, Michigan was a step above Ohio State (this is probably debatable but head to head and NC gives UM a slight edge). Now, Ohio State is unquestionably the premier program in the Midwest. Ohio State realized it needed something different to put it over the top and it made a change. That change has been haunting Michigan fans for six years. It's time for Michigan to get even. Consistency has been Michigan's hallmark. It almost seems that some fans are willing to concede greatness to continue Michigan's remarkable run at being good. It doesn’t have to be an either/or situation. Ohio State needed to miss a bowl game before it took a good look at itself. Michigan shouldn't have to do the same. That is why it is imperative for Michigan to hire a dynamic coach from outside of the program immediately following Carr's retirement. A brief stint with a promoted-from-within "Michigan Man" could really hurt the program. There have been so many big-time football schools (Oklahoma, USC, Florida and Ohio State just to name a few) that have significantly altered the level of their programs by hiring a dynamic coach. I know some people feel that think an “outsider” would bring instability and without a "Michigan Man" at the helm the program would be like a captain-less ship. I understand the desire to hold on to the past but I also understand that Michigan's 37-year run of success started as a result of hiring a coach from Miami (OH). That same coach was also an "Ohio State" man. That alone should calm fears that a "Michigan Man" needs to lead the team. I believe that any coach that comes to Michigan and wants to be there is a "Michigan Man". I am pleading with the administration to help the Michigan football program reach unprecedented heights. Everything is in place except ingenuity. Ohio State took a chance and it paid off brilliantly. Michigan must follow. Besides, how much longer does the fan-base have to feel like this this simply because Michigan is afraid of change?

The following is a ranking of the best candidates available (IMO) to take Michigan to the next level. I only included coaches that Michigan would have an excellent shot at bringing in. I didn't waste anybody's time by putting coaches that are solid in their current locations like Urban Meyer and Bob Stoops. I also didn’t include assistant coaches not for any other reason than I just didn’t think any assistants were among the best candidates. There are way too many head coaches out there that are more than qualified to coach at Michigan. Michigan doesn't need to waste its time by looking at inexperienced or unproven coaches. It just needs to pony up the dough to bring in the best candidate possible. I did not include any of the "Michigan Men" candidates that have had their names thrown around at some point or another. I did write a bit about them at the end. The factors that I used to choose and rank these coaches were pretty simple. I looked for coaches that are innovative, that can adjust, that maximize talent, and that have proven they can win anywhere. Ohio State used those factors to bring in Jim Tressel. It's time for Michigan to strike back.


Best Candidates for Michigan Football Coach

1) Paul Johnson Navy Head Coach

With Petrino stuck in the black hole that is the NFL, Johnson becomes the top available coach on my list. I've changed my tone completely on Johnson. My initial feelings were that Johnson and his triple option attack would not be conducive to a big-time football program like Michigan. After seeing successful variations of the triple option flourish at Florida and West Virginia, there is no reason it could not work at Michigan. In fact, Johnson would allow Michigan to keep a run-oriented offense which has been a staple of the program since its infancy. It is also important to remember that using the offense Johnson runs at Navy right now is the only way Navy could ever compete. Johnson deserves credit for being innovative enough to make Navy a factor in college football again as well as the benefit of the doubt that with far better talent he could be even more effective.

I don't think most college football fans recognize just how fantastic of a job Johnson has done at the Naval Academy. In the two seasons prior to Johnson’s arrival, Navy had a record of 1-20. After his first season in Annapolis, Navy has gone 35-15 with four bowl appearances in four seasons. If that’s not remarkable coaching, then I don’t know what is. He routinely wins with a roster full of kids that nobody recruited. No high school football player with aspirations of playing in the NFL would ever choose to play football at an academy over another D-1 school. Academy teams are slower, smaller, and significantly less athletic than 99% of D-1 teams. Nobody plays harder than the academies but no D-1 school has a bigger disadvantage in talent. Johnson routinely beats teams with superior talent. It makes you wonder how successful he could be with the most talented players in the country.

Johnson isn't a newbie. Before he was at Navy, he was at I-AA Georgia Southern where he went 62-10 in five seasons. He won two National Championships in five seasons including the 1999 season in which Johnson's Georgia Southern squad defeated Jim Tressel's Youngstown State team. Johnson won the conference championship every season he was at Georgia Southern and also collected two National Coach of the Year Awards. Ohio State has achieved unparalleled success at Ohio State by bringing in a top I-AA coach. Johnson was even more successful than Tressel during his relatively short stint in the I-AA ranks.

I think Johnson would be a fantastic fit for Michigan. He has a lot of experience against Tressel. He has proven he can beat Tressel on the big stage. He has maximized talent at Navy in a way that no other coach has duplicated in college football. I don't understand how this guy is still coaching at the Naval Academy. His resume is just as impressive as Tressel’s pre-Ohio State resume. He sounds like a perfect antidote to offset the advantage Ohio State gained by hiring Tressel. Johnson probably doesn’t have the leverage of Petrino and Rodriguez in terms of contract demands simply because he hasn’t received major interest from other big-time schools. That would allow Michigan to avoid having to substantially increase the amount of money it pays to its head football coach.

2) Rich Rodriguez West Virginia Head Coach

Rodriguez gives Michigan the opportunity to "have its cake and eat it too" just like Johnson would. What I mean by that is that Michigan could become significantly more dynamic on offense without abandoning its run first mentality. Think of it as Michigan Football 2.0. It has all of the features of the traditional Michigan program with upgrades. I actually like the sound of that idea. Rodriguez has installed a brilliant spread-option offense at West Virginia. With talent only a mid-major could love, he has elevated the WVU program to elite status. Rodriguez is clearly one of the elite young coaching candidates in college football. Whichever college reels him in will be set for the foreseeable future.

A lot will be made of the defensive struggles at West Virginia. It is much easier to make something out of nothing on offense than it is to do the same on defense. I would be shocked if these coaches wouldn't put a good defensive product on the field with Michigan-level talent. West Virginia has tried tirelessly to keep Rodriguez in Morgantown. He is compensated handsomely so it would take a generous offer to pry him away. Michigan is one of the schools that can make such an offer.

3) Jeff Tedford California Head Coach

Tedford certainly has experience coaching a top public university. He has revitalized the Cal football program. The year before he took over at Cal, the Golden Bears went 1-10. In his first season he guided Cal to a 7-5 record including a two-point loss to USC. I've always felt that the only way to know for sure the merits of a particular coach is to see that coach inherit a mess. If a coach can turn around a mess, then you know he's a fantastic coach. Most of the elite major college football coaches don't ever have to inherit a mess. Just about every coach on this list has inherited a miserable situation only to bring their school to national prominence. Those are the coaches that make the best of talent. Tedford took over one of the worst programs in football and has not experienced one losing season. I would say he gets the most out of his players.

One concern I do have with Tedford is the fact that he hasn't taken Cal to the next level. I know it's hard having to recruit against USC and UCLA. I'm sure there is a cap on how good the Cal program can be with those two traditional powers in the same state. I would be more sold on Tedford if he could put Cal over the top. What he has done thus far has been extremely impressive. I just wonder if he has the ingenuity to "drop the hammer" like Pete Carroll and Bobby Petrino.

4) Greg Schiano Rutgers Head Coach

If given a choice, how many players on the Rutgers roster would the Michigan coaching staff take? One or two, maybe? It wouldn't be much more than that. Schiano proved that he is right near the top of the list of bright young coaches. Rutgers beat Louisville and barely lost to West Virginia in triple OT. Rutgers was even in the National Championship talk midway through the 2006 season which is simply unheard of for Rutgers. It took a few years for Schiano to get the program rolling but nobody in New Jersey is arguing with the results.

As impressive as Schiano's job has been at Rutgers, he has had plenty of success elsewhere. He coached for the Chicago Bears before becoming the Defensive Coordinator at the University of Miami (FL) in 1999 and 2000. That was the stretch that pushed the Canes back into the national spotlight with their trademark dominating defense. Schiano shockingly turned down overtures from Miami to remain at Rutgers. I don't think that is a sign that Schiano is unwilling to leave Rutgers. I just think he recognized the instability that is going on at Miami right now.

5) Chris Petersen Boise State Head Coach

Anybody who saw the Fiesta Bowl knows what this guy is capable of doing. Much like Paul Johnson at Navy, Petersen gets the most out of a roster littered with recruits that nobody wanted. Petersen's offense is innovative enough to keep even the best defenses in football on its toes. Oklahoma can attest to that. Also, Petersen's success in year one is a whole different feat than first-year success at a school like Miami (FL). Larry Coker inherited the equivalent of a pro football team in 2001. Petersen inherited a program full of players that big-time schools had no interest in. Even though Dan Hawkins had been extremely successful at Boise State, nothing short of spectacular coaching would have put Boise State in a BCS game this year.

Hawkins struggles in year one at Colorado may curtail the enthusiasm for Petersen somewhat but Colorado was in shambles when Hawkins took over. If a coach can beat BCS schools with weak talent at Boise State, then he can do it at Colorado or Michigan. It may be a bit premature to anoint Petersen as the next great college football coach but there is no doubt in my mind that he won't last four years at Boise State before a big-time school makes him an offer.

6) Kirk Ferentz Head Coach Iowa

The probability of Ferentz becoming the Michigan football coach likely peaked last season. The Iowa football program was supposed to take a major leap in 2006. Ferentz had started to pull in some excellent recruiting classes which should have signified more impressive on-field results. That didn't happen in '06 and I'm not sure that Iowa can make the transition to a college football power. I think the Iowa job is a lot like the California job. Both Tedford and Ferentz will struggle to get those two schools to the next level. It's hard to hold it against them. I'm not sure how much of it is the talent deficiency at Iowa and how much of it is Ferentz not yet being able to put it all together. Nonetheless, Iowa would be crazy to let him go.

I can speak from my own point of view and say that although I respect what Ferentz has done, I would much rather have a coach with a better feel for the offense. Iowa is too much like the old Michigan way of brutalizing the opposition into submission. That works against weaker competition but that doesn’t take a program to the top level of college football

7) Bronco Mendenhall BYU Head Coach

I was impressed with the job Mendenhall had done at BYU already. After reading his Wikipedia profile, I'm even more impressed. He is precisely the kind of coach that the University of Michigan covets. His X's and O's resemble the new style of college football that is required for a team to compete with the likes of USC, Florida and Ohio State. He embraces the history of his school while promising to bring it to new levels of success. Here is a brief summary from Wikipedia:

"Mendenhall's agenda at BYU has been to bring the team back to its glory days of national and conference championships with a wide-open offense and an aggressive defense. His first step in his agenda was to switch BYU's uniforms and helmets back to the 1980s look, but with the navy blue tinge. Additionally, he has reached out to alumni and former players, both in an effort to bring back tradition and to search the nation for recruits. Rather than trying to make excuses for or work around BYU's strict honor code and LDS Mission situation, he has embraced them as positives in recruiting athletes who will succeed at BYU. He also had the university paint a midfield logo at LaVell Edwards stadium and reinstituted the use of helmet stickers."

I’ve talked to a lot of fans from various schools and it is very rare to find a coaching staff as reserved and covert as the Michigan coaching staff. I would love for Michigan to have a bold coach who is not afraid to say the goal is to win it all. Mendenhall seems to be that kind of coach. He's dynamic and liberal. He embraces history as well as the ever changing landscape of college football. Mendenhall's fresh approach would be a much needed break from the blandness that has become of the UM coaching staff.

8) Brian Kelly Head Coach Cincinnati

This might sound strange at first but I am convinced that this it is true--winning in I-AA and D-2 is just as impressive as winning in I-A. Coaching is coaching. That is why I am so high on Paul Johnson. Nobody was better in I-AA than Johnson. Regardless of what division you are coaching in, you have to prepare, scheme, and adjust better than the opposition. Jim Tressel, Johnson and Brian Kelly were some of the brightest minds their respective divisions had to offer. All three have revitalized I-A programs immediately. While I think Johnson would be my choice over Kelly, it wouldn't be by much.

If there is any doubt that the "Michigan way" is not the end-all consider that Mike Debord failed miserably at Central Michigan before Kelly came in to bail the program out. If Kelly can significantly out coach Debord at Central, just think of the improvements he could make with the talent that Debord currently has to work with as Michigan's Offensive Coordinator. Kelly, within two seasons, turned the Central Michigan program into a force in the MAC.

Within a season or two at Cincinnati, Kelly will have that program among the Big East's best. He'll have inroads in the state of Ohio in terms of recruiting which would be a huge asset for the Michigan football program. The Big East has become the new "cradle of coaches" with Rich Rodriguez, Greg Schiano, and Kelly just to name a few. Michigan would do well to pluck one of these bright coaches from that conference.

9) Gary Patterson Head Coach TCU

Other than Johnson, Patterson might do the most with the least. His recruiting classes aren't even in the top 50 yet his teams are always stout on defense. In six seasons at TCU, Patterson has gone 54-20 while leading the Horned Frogs to five bowl games. His TCU teams have beaten Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Louisville, and Iowa State.

I have to admit that I haven't seen nearly enough of Patterson to endorse him as a coaching candidate at Michigan. TCU's offense ingenuity is certainly nothing like that of most of the other coaches on this list. His calling card is his defense which would work well at Michigan. I like defense but, in this day and age, you have to be able to score in multiple ways to be successful. Being vanilla on offense is a recipe for disaster. Michigan proves that every year against teams with equal talent. Patterson might be more innovative than I’m giving him credit for. I wish I knew more about his style.


10) Mike Leach Head Coach Texas Tech

Last year, I viewed Leach and Paul Johnson in the same light. I thought both would be in over their heads at Michigan. While I've changed my tune on Johnson, I'm still uncertain about Leach. It's very hard to imagine Leach's pass-happy offense at Michigan. Whereas Petrino, Rodriguez, and Johnson's offenses are either predicated on the run or use the run heavily, Leach's offense is more like an air raid. His running backs usually end up with quite a few rushing touchdowns but the yardage discrepancy would be very hard to get used to for the Michigan faithful.

There is no question that Leach is a very good coach. The recruits he gets at Texas Tech are nowhere near the top 20 in college football yet his teams continue to win. Every season, Leach plugs in a quarterback who promptly throws for 3,000+ yards and 30 touchdowns. Although Leach's recruiting rankings don't jump off of the page, he does have the most talented state in America as his backyard. The second and third-tier recruits in Texas are more than enough to sustain a successful football program. I'm not sure how much recruiting influence Leach would have in the Midwest.

11) Jim Grobe Wake Forest Head Coach

I am extremely impressed with what Grobe has done at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have something going for the first time in their history. Grobe continues the theme of maximizing talent. Wake Forest has an enrollment of 4,321. It hardly piques the interest of the nation’s top football talent. Yet, Wake won the ACC conference championship over the likes of Miami (FL), Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Georgia Tech.

One to keep in mind if Carr sticks around a couple years...

1a) Bobby Petrino Atlanta Falcons Head Coach

If I had carte blanche over the selection of Michigan's next football coach, I would take a hard look at Bobby Petrino. Obviously the fact that he left Louisville for the NFL makes his availability shaky at best. And, questions about his willingness to stay in one place for a significant amount of time are inevitable. When a coach is interested in the NFL, the love affair almost never goes away. Regardless, his resume is as impressive as they come. He guided the Louisville Cardinals to a 41-9 record in four seasons. He parlayed minimal talent (at least according to the recruiting rankings) into one of the elite programs in college football. That is amazing considering Louisville's standing as a perennial afterthought for the first 40 years of its existence. Michigan absolutely must have a coach that can maximize talent. If Petrino can make the most of his talent and win with weak recruiting classes, then he will certainly be able to make the most of his talent and win bigger with superb recruiting classes.


Martin Has the Power

It will be interesting to see how Bill Martin approaches the job search. Without an obvious in-house candidate and tremendous pressure from alumni to go outside of the program for a dynamic coach, one would have to think that Martin would use Michigan's vast resources to bring in someone as talented as Paul Johnson. I am sure there would be some awkwardness going south to look for the next Michigan coach but that is only an excuse to avoid having to hire outside of the program. This is all just speculation. The truth is that the average Michigan fan today has no clue how the program would go about hiring a new coach since it has promoted from within for the last 37 years.

I would hope that Martin can look beyond precedent (hiring from within) and look forward to the possibilities with a coach like Johnson. Michigan gets too much talent to continue to try to bully around the elite college football teams. Every trip to Pasadena proves that doesn't work. Michigan has managed to underpay its head football coach for a long time. If it wants to bring in the brightest young coach available, it will have to be willing to double or even triple the amount of money it has paid Coach Carr. That shouldn’t be a problem for a program that routinely leads the nation in attendance and merchandising.

One of the factors that any elite college football team will want is stability. That means trying to limit the amount of head coaching changes as much as possible. With Grobe being 55 going into next season, he probably won't be around for more than 10-12 years. If there isn't an alternative, then hiring a coach for 10-12 years isn't such a bad thing. However, it would be in everyone's best interest to bring in a guy that could coach for 25 years. That combined with the fact that Grobe (like Schiano) has only really achieved success recently makes him a long shot.


"Michigan Men"

As far as I know, there isn’t a single veteran coach on the Michigan football staff that hasn’t coached at another university. Yet, the myths that all of the current Michigan coaches were somehow born "Michigan Men" and, conversely, all head coaching candidates from outside of the program are not Michigan Men still get perpetuated throughout the media and fan-base. Had former Michigan AD Don Canham not gone outside of the Michigan program to look for a coach to succeed Bump Elliot, Bo Schembechler would have probably been hired as the head coach at Ohio State in 1979. Hiring outside of the program brought Michigan to the level it is at now. Every so often, the program needs a new direction. It needed a new direction in 1969 and it needs a new direction when Carr retires. I can only hope Martin makes as brilliant a move as Canham did.

There is a section of the fan-base that will undoubtedly push for a Michigan Man. Lloyd Carr has already laid the groundwork for a member of the current staff to take over. That would be the worst decision Michigan could make. Lloyd has said on occasion that if you take a look at any organization that has remained successful for a long period of time, one characteristic that is consistent across the board is promotion from within. There certainly is some merit to that. However, one thing that helps organizations reach new levels is hiring a dynamic mind from outside of the organization. Despite Michigan’s impressive won/loss record and consistent bowl streak, the program has not yet reached its potential. Carr will probably push for Mike Debord as the next head coach at Michigan. That would be a huge mistake. Debord failed miserably at Central Michigan only to have Brian Kelly come in and win immediately. There would be one reason, and one reason only to hire Debord and that would be to continue with the tradition of hiring within. That would be an awful basis to hire a new coach especially when Bo was plucked from another school in 1969.

There will also be interest by fans and alumni in Les Miles, Jim Harbaugh, Mike Trgovac, and Cam Cameron. It would be great if Harbaugh showed an affinity for maximizing talent and “dropping the hammer” at Stanford. That program is in such disarray that Harbaugh might not have things rolling by the time Michigan looks for its next coach. Cameron is also intriguing considering his monumental success calling plays for the San Diego Chargers. However, Marty Schottenheimer’s influence certainly doesn’t make me giddy about the offense that Cameron might bring to Ann Arbor.

It’s important to remember that simply being a “Michigan Man” doesn’t automatically qualify a person as being a good candidate for the head coaching position at Michigan. The school shouldn’t hire beneath itself just to fulfill the ridiculous notion that it must hire from within. Michigan deserves the best. Despite Carr’s many proclamations that fans and internet people don’t have the slightest idea what they’re talking about, the Michigan fan-base isn’t stupid. Games are now won as much on the sideline as they are on the field.

Top 50 MLB Baseball Players of All-Time

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Only the Lions

I can’t say I didn’t see that coming. The Lions had the number one pick gift-wrapped with a nice little bow on top behind door number one. Instead, they chose to see what was behind door number two. Someone should have clued them in that there isn’t a higher draft pick than first overall. Maybe they were holding out hope for the negative first pick. All the Lions had to do was play like they’ve played for six consecutive seasons. Instead, they chose to make Sunday their Super Bowl. This is the second year in a row that the Lions chose to view the end of a miserable season as their Super Bowl. Both times it has cost them dearly. Last season’s pointless victory over New Orleans on Christmas Eve dropped the Lions from the second pick to the ninth pick. Nobody is happier about that than Reggie Bush and Vince Young.

Players and coaches can’t lose a game on purpose. The first sign of improprieties in that regard would likely result in immediate banishment from the NFL. However, every other directionless team in the NFL uses the last few games to take a look at some of the younger players. That alone is usually enough to keep a team from winning unexpectedly. Instead, the Lions played all of their grizzly veterans in an attempt to get the all important third win of the season. The players have too much pride to go down without a fight. If you put guys like Jon Kitna in a game, they’re going to give it all they’ve got and in a league like the NFL, that sometimes leads to victory. I don’t blame the players one bit. I blame the organization for being inept in yet another category.

Although I have no gripes with the players competing hard in a meaningless game, I do have plenty of gripes about the atmosphere surrounding the end of a 3-13 campaign. The Lions were a brutal football team this season. They have the least talented roster in the NFL. They have the worst management in the NFL. They have no hope on offense or defense. Winning the season-finale over a 9-7 team that has tanked the end of the season to “improve” to 3-13 is nothing to be happy about. There shouldn’t be a happy guy in that locker room unless of course players are happy that the season is finally over. It’s amazing to me that the Detroit News and Detroit Free Press were littered with quotes from the players and coaches about how overjoyed they were about winning. The NFL is the only professional sports league in the world where one win offsets an entire futile season. Seriously, what is there to be happy about?

I would have loved to see the Lions with the first pick. If any team has “earned” the first pick over time, it is the Detroit Lions. There are variations of the “Lifetime Achievement” award at the Oscar’s and the Grammy’s that go to artists and/or entertainers that perform consistently well over a long period of time. It’s more of an honorary distinction. I believe the Lions have earned the equivalent. They should be given the honorary first pick in every draft. Isn’t it amazing that the Lions have been, by far, the worst team in the NFL over six years and haven’t been rewarded with the top pick? That’s not as easy as it sounds. It takes ineptness at a level that most of us could never accomplish.

Even though the Lions lost out on the wealth of leverage that comes with the first pick in the draft I am a little relieved because I do believe that the Raiders will take Brady Quinn with the first pick. Quinn is not the kind of player the Lions need to be taking at this point. He is Joey Harrington redux. Millen would’ve bowed to public pressure and taken Quinn no doubt. The best-case scenario would have been for the Lions to pick first and then trade the pick. There is so much more leverage in a trade involving the first pick than there is for the second pick. Teams with the first pick can work on trades for weeks leading up to the draft because any team willing to trade with them knows they can select any player they want. That is not a luxury that the number two pick provides. Even with the second pick, the correct move for the Lions is to trade down. That has been the correct move for six years running and it has never happened. Something tells me that the ’07 draft isn’t going to be any different.

I’m not blind. I know that it doesn’t matter who the Lions take other than to see who will have their NFL career immediately ruined. The Lions could have the first overall pick five years in a row and still not make the playoffs. However, the NFL Draft has become the Super Bowl for Lions fans. The rampant speculation that goes on in the months leading up to the draft is the result of millions of angry Lions fans trying to find an avenue for their frustration. It is a tradition. It doesn’t matter that the Lions will inevitably screw up. April is the only month of the year that provides even a glimmer of hope. For a comparison, just think of how much the residents of Alaska value the few minutes of darkness they get each day. Lions fans value their few minutes of hope much in the same manner. As much as the fans despise Ford and Millen, they still cherish the Lions.

While it certainly bums me out that the Lions were so close to securing the number one pick in the draft, equally disheartening is how this victory is being viewed. It literally makes me sick to my stomach that this victory occurred. The predictable headlines about how this victory somehow sets the stage for a successful ’07 campaign have already flooded the newspapers. Rod Marinelli suggested that the “cement is hardening” meaning the molding of a successful team is close to being finished. Millen gets to parlay a 3-13 season into a “springboard” for the ’07 season. The fact that Ford retained him for another season is just laughable. One stupid victory has somehow made everyone forget a miserable season. Every member of the organization is buying the victory over Dallas as a great accomplishment. It’s sickening. A good portion of the press eats this stuff up, too. Had the Lions lost in typical Lions fashion, the atmosphere would have resembled that of a funeral. It’s amazing how much winning at the right time changes things. Had the Lions beaten Dallas last week and lost to someone else this week and still finished 3-13, there wouldn’t be a positive word spoken.

Lions fans were screwed out of finally seeing their team pick first in the draft but they were screwed even more by the season-ending victory because now they have to hear the positive spin garbage that irrationally comes from “finishing the season on a good note.” That is what I despise the most about the victory on Sunday. That says a lot too because I was really hoping to see the Lions botch the first pick. It gets old seeing them screw up the second and seventh picks.

I am just a stupid blogger.

Nothing aggravates me more than listening to someone speak out of their rear end. This happens from time to time to everyone I’m sure. It’s particularly annoying to listen to someone do it in a situation in which they have an enormous amount of influence. Just recently on CBS, Gary Danielson skewed statistics to argue for Florida in the BCS Championship game. Tim Brando, going with the pro-SEC theme that CBS shamelessly employs, began highlights of the Penn State-Tennessee game on New Year’s Day (a game in which Penn St. won) by saying, “Now let’s remember that the outcome of bowl games does nothing to prove which conference is better.” Brando might as well have been wearing an “I Love the SEC” T-Shirt. Anyhow, those are just a few examples of national TV analysts using on-air time to influence the viewing public. Those instances don’t hold a candle, however, to the ridiculousness that was Kirk Herbstreit’s diatribe against bloggers during the Rose Bowl.

One thing that I have come to know in the last year and a half is that the only genre in which bloggers are viewed across the board as being idiots by the “professional” folk is the sporting world. MTV had a blogger on their New Year’s Eve special to speak about celebrity news where the blogger was permitted to opine freely on various subjects. I couldn’t believe it. That opened my eyes to the fact that bloggers aren’t viewed as a giant group of idiots by the entire world—just the sports world. Herbstreit went out of his way to drive home that point during the Rose Bowl. On numerous occasions, the idea of Lloyd Carr taking heat for his big-game struggles was brought up on air. Brent Musberger asked aloud if Carr deserved “the heat.” Herbstreit went on and on about how “the bloggers will be logging on to their computers after the game starting up the Fire Carr talk” as if all bloggers share one brain. He did it in such a condescending manner that he essentially dismissed Michigan bloggers as a whole from holding any rational thought. I suppose that when I wrote a few weeks back about being annoyed by Gary Danielson’s slant-job on CBS that I should have said, “there go those ex-quarterbacks again making idiotic arguments on TV.” Because all ex-quarterbacks have the same views on everything, right?

There are a lot of people (yes, bloggers count as people) that are happy with Carr. There are a lot of people that aren’t happy with Carr. To insinuate that a) all bloggers hate Carr b) bloggers are the only people that take issue with Carr’s recent struggles, and c) being unhappy with Carr’s performances is somehow an indefensible position is irresponsible and flat-out wrong. I am familiar with most Michigan blogs and I can’t even name a blogger that openly speaks disdain and hatred for Carr. I am sure there are a few out there but there certainly isn’t nearly enough for Herbstreit to even comment on them.

I’ll give you a quick summary on how I feel about Carr because I think it is somewhat important in terms of how I view Herbstreit’s jabs. I like Carr as a person. I like that he is a holdover from the Bo era. He is a diehard Michigan fan which is something both have in common. However, his strengths as a good human being have little to do with being successful as a football coach. His in-game adjustments leave a lot to be desired. His teams are often unprepared in big games. His teams often under-perform. These are not opinions. These are facts. On the flipside, he is a very good recruiter and very good at instilling values unto his football players. The problem with the Carr debate is that many fans are either overboard on the anti-Carr wagon or overboard on the pro-Carr wagon. When you have a situation like that, tensions are high and people start to insult each other. It’s very rare that you see two UM fans intelligently discuss the pros and cons of Carr. I really like the stability of the program. Carr is largely responsible for that. That doesn’t mean that things are great. It just means that things are stable. The Ohio State football program was extremely stable when it canned John Cooper for losing to Michigan and losing many of its bowl games. Simply being stable is not always enough for a top ten college football program.

Michigan does things differently than every other college football program. At Michigan, respect and integrity come before winning. Carr won’t ever be fired simply because he is a good representative of the University. The Fire Carr talk is wasted breathe because it will never happen. I think there are many young coaches in America today that could bring Michigan to a level that Carr could never accomplish. I have felt this way for many years. I am not a bandwagon jumper nor am I a fair weather fan. This is an opinion that I have held ever since Michigan hired Carr in 1994. I always thought it was a bit presumptuous to think that the best possible person of all of the coaches in America for the Michigan football job just happened to be the guy that was named interim coach after the head coach was fired for disorderly conduct. That is not a knock on Carr. I just think that it is important to remember that the Michigan program was running somewhat on auto-pilot long before Carr took over. To argue that Carr is the right man for the job simply because Michigan has won a lot of games under Carr is not using sound logic. There are a lot of bad coaches (not saying Carr is bad) that could win 8-10 games at Michigan every year. You can’t just look at a winning percentage to argue for or against Carr. I personally think Michigan needs an upgrade at the head-coaching position. As a fan of the University and Carr as a person, I am willing to wait until Carr retires for that to happen.

According to Herbstreit, my last two paragraphs were unnecessary because apparently all bloggers feel the exact same way about Lloyd Carr. But, humor me for a few more minutes if you will. Is it really unreasonable for anyone to be upset with Carr’s performances? Who was the last high-profile coach to go 1-5 against his main rival and 1-4 in his last five bowl games and not face tremendous pressure? The only coach that I can think of that was that poor in both categories was John Cooper. I’m sure Herbstreit knows as well as anyone how that situation turned out for Ohio State. The result of that firing was that Ohio State became the top program in college football (if you want to say USC is number one, I won’t argue). Jim Tressel came in and fixed all of Ohio State’s flaws. The same arguments that can be made in defense of Carr are also the arguments that were being made in defense of Cooper at the time. Both Cooper and Carr have impressive winning percentages and both consistently fielded good football teams. So now Herbstreit is taking shots at bloggers—some of whom don’t even have a beef with Carr—for getting on Carr when his own University fired a good man that fielded good football teams much in the same way that Carr has. It is perfectly reasonable for a Michigan fan to feel that the administration should make the same move that Ohio State made. That doesn’t mean that’s the right decision. It just means that it’s reasonable for someone to feel that way. Even if Herbstreit disagrees, his portrayal of Michigan bloggers as being irrational is ridiculous.

I understand that people sometimes use a blanket description unintentionally. I don’t think that is necessarily the case here. Herbstreit only perpetuated what is an already-held belief in the sports world—bloggers are idiots. It seems every time a sports personality wants to make a point on TV about an irrational viewpoint held by a certain group of people, that personality almost always uses “bloggers” as the culprits. Bloggers are responsible for seemingly everything. If one guy starts a “Fire such and such” website, you will undoubtedly hear someone on TV utter the phrase “the bloggers are at it again” deflecting the doings of one person to the entire blogosphere.

I don’t know what fueled Herbstreit’s rant. He obviously has some sort of vendetta against bloggers. However, just because one person pissed you off at some point doesn’t mean that every person in that sub-group is a moron. If that’s the way Herbstreit wants things to go, then fine. I’ll file him under the “compulsive gambler” and “convicted felon” categories since both he and Art Schlichter (convicted felon and compulsive gambler) were both Ohio State quarterbacks. I’ll also file him under the category of accepting gifts from a booster since both Herbstreit and Troy Smith played QB at Ohio State. Sound fair?

This obviously struck a chord with me since I am a blogger. I don’t subscribe to the idea that my opinion is somehow dumber than everyone else’s because I choose to keep an internet journal. To have my opinion dismissed on the merits of simply being a blogger is insulting. Bloggers are made up of the same people that every other group is made up of. To Herbstreit, though, all Michigan bloggers are the same. All Michigan bloggers irrationally hate Lloyd Carr. Since Herbstreit knows me so well, I should just let him write my posts for me. In fact, all bloggers should just allow Herbsreit to post a blog encompassing their collective thoughts. I doubt he would agree to do it though because he could no longer blame bloggers for all of the irrationalities in college football.

If Herbstreit is still intent on the blanket characterization of bloggers, then we can all just start grouping him with all ex-quarterbacks, ex-Ohio State Buckeyes, and TV analysts. I’m sure Herbsreit has no problem being seen in the same light as the freaky-deaky Marv Albert. Sound fair, Herbie?