Monday, December 12, 2005

NFL Draft Order Shaping up

The Lions persevered in a tough environment Sunday night. It would’ve been easy to show up and dominate a hapless Green Bay Packer team but the Lions proved that they have what it takes to lose even in the most unlikely circumstances. It looked early on that the Lions would be doomed by Green Bay’s ineptitude but then the Lions turned on the incompetence when it mattered the most. The Lions were able to stave off a win in overtime that would’ve crippled their chances of bringing in a quarterback through the draft. A victory over Green Bay would’ve put the Lions in draft-pick oblivion with 5-10 other teams. There are so many bad teams in the NFL this year that a poor record doesn’t even guarantee you a top ten pick. The Lions should have no problem losing to both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh which would set up the Vince Young Super Bowl on Christmas Eve. The Lions play the Saints in a game that could decide the career path for the Heisman runner-up.

The mystery of the draft-order tiebreaker has been solved. After getting a tip from uber draft expert Matt S., I googled “draft order tiebreaker” and came up with everything we ever needed/wanted to know about the impending 2006 NFL draft order. CBS Sportsline does all of the work for us by listing the current draft order as well as opponent winning percentages. For a complete look at the draft order, check out CBS Sportsline’s Draft Update.

Here is the draft order if the season ended today:

1). Houston
2). San Francisco
3). NY Jets
4). Green Bay Packers
5). New Orleans
6). Tennessee
7). Buffalo
8). Detroit
9). Arizona
10). Oakland
11). Cleveland
12). Baltimore

Here are the match-ups that will decide the final draft order:

Week 15:


Week 16:


Week 17:


The Lions could conceivably finish with the third pick in the draft. Here is how that could happen:

1). Lions lose to Saints
2). Packers beat Ravens
3). Jets beat Bills

If those three things happen, the third pick would come down to the tiebreaker which looks favorable for the Lions. Most of the teams that are grouped together at 4-9 and 3-10 have tough schedules remaining which should give the Lions the tiebreaker (strength of schedule). San Francisco and Houston are more than likely going to finish with the first and second picks in the draft. That would work well for the Lions since SF took Alex Smith with the first pick last year and Houston took David Carr with the first pick in 2002. Neither team will be looking for a quarterback. Barring a trade, the Lions would only have to finish in the top four to guarantee a shot at Matt Leinart or Vince Young. If the Lions lose to New Orleans, they would almost certainly have a top four pick. If the Lions win just one game, they could be out of the top ten. These next three weeks are crucial.


Anonymous said...

Unfortunately the Lions SOS isn't helped the last three weeks by having to play Cinc & Pitts.

Last night's totally inept performance cemented that the entire coaching staff will be swept out after the season ends. The playcalling in the red-zone was a total joke, and the QB sneak by Garcia on 4th down was the epitome of it all. My favorite was Paul Maguire's call on ESPN..."HORRIBLE CALL...THEY CALLED TIMEOUT TO SET THAT UP?"

Anonymous said...

that was great. You said these next three weeks are crucial. if a person read taht, they would be thinking you're fighing for a playoff spot. HAHAHA.....we're playing for draft positioning....and the name of the game is Lose Lose Lose.

Lions - 06 - hopefully better than last year.

Anonymous said...

Why so you hapless Lions and wonder man Millen can draft another receiver? Do sports a favor, quit following this team.

Anonymous said...

I love this topic. Here is a $286 link that really is priceless. This sums it up:

I feel very sorry for all my friends who are Lions' fans. On the brightside I feel their pain because I love my Tigers!

Anonymous said...

what if Vince Young does not enter the draft?

Jake said...

Matt S,

The Lions strength of schedule will only increase slightly. The combined record of the last three opponents is 21-18. Tennessee's remaining opponent's record is 26-13. Buffalo's is 23-16. It's going to be very close. This is all moot though since it all comes down to the New Orleans game. If the Lions win that game, they're done and maybe out of the top ten. If they lose, they should be no worse than 5th.

Anonymous #2, Young might not go pro but I have to think he will. I heard yesterday that he was starting to look at agents. College players almost always say they're staying in school whenever they're asked. Most top ten picks actually end up staying. If he stays in school, the Lions will be out of the running for a quarterback. But, this draft is extremely deep on linebackers. The Lions might have a shot at A.J Hawk or another top LB. We all know the Lions haven't had a strong linebacker crops in a long, long time. To be honest, the Lions need help EVERYWHERE so they can't go wrong as long as they don't pick Santanio Holems.

Go Lions! Woo hoo!

Anonymous said...

Love the post, it chronicles the fun I have the second half of every season, finding myself interested again because of draft pick order. After watching sunday's game I think you have the coaching staff on board with your plan, that play calling seriously makes you wonder if they are not trying to lose. My concern is this, how may qb's have we drafted over the years (ware, peete, batch, harrington) that we have never been able to develop? I think this team will screw up Leinart or Young. I personally would be more excited about getting a guy who is 3 years in and has shown some promise, mabe even a back up like Volek at Tenn or Garard with Jacksonville.

Chris of Dangerous Logic said...

jason -

Scott. Mitchell.

Jake said...

Jason and Chris,

I think if we add up both of your comments, we'll get the correct answer. The Lions have had no luck with drafted quarterbacks OR free agent quarterbacks. So, if they're going to stay away from what hasn't worked in the past, they're only option is to play without a quarterback. I do agree that the Lions are probably among the worst teams in the league at developing a quarterback so it's entirely possible that Vince Young could thrive anywhere but Detroit. If that's the case, I feel bad for Vince. But, the Lions still have to pretend that they are a competent franchise that's able to develop a quarterback. Also, I would be much more excited about the "potential" of Vince Young over someone like Billy Volek. As we all know, what matters with the Lions is "potential" since nobody actually ever becomes good. At least Vince Young would give us that short-term burst of enthusiasm.


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