Bad News for Kimbo

I'm not ready to touch anything that occurred over the weekend so this seems like the perfect opportunity for my virgin MMA-post. I'll jump right in with Kimbo Slice since he hand-delivered The Ultimate Fighter its highest rated show ever last week. When it was announced earlier in the year that Kimbo had accepted Dana White's invitation to appear on the 10th season of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), record ratings were merely a formality for Spike TV. It's not that people were going to tune in because they thought that Kimbo was for real, they were going to tune in to find out if he was for real. And tune in they did.

Even though Kimbo's appearance on TUF was guaranteed to give White and the UFC a ratings bonanza, Slice had no such guarantees. In fact, he had everything to lose. His entire reputation had been built on annihilating helpless hacks on the streets of Miami. His many shortcomings as a multidisciplinary fighter might have been ignored by internet-gawkers who were enthralled by his YouTube beatdowns and maybe a few novice MMA fans but they certainly weren't ignored by savvy fans and even Dana White himself. White ripped into both EliteXC and Slice for making a mockery of the sport which ended up leading to White offering a chance for Kimbo to prove himself on TUF 10. Appearing on a show as widely seen as TUF would leave Kimbo no room to hide. Every nuance of his repertoire would be exposed. If he embarrassed himself, his career would be over.

As it turns out, Kimbo didn't embarrass himself. In fact, even in defeat, his opponent--Roy Nelson--was the object of most of the post-fight criticism including a few jabs from White. There is no question that Kimbo is a superb athlete. He looks like he's built out of granite. He is clearly in great physical condition. He is an avid learner. In fact, he comes across on the show as an incredibly likable person and a lot of that has to do with his work ethic. Kimbo had everything to lose last week and, other than the match, he didn't lose anything. He deserves a lot of credit for that.

Unfortunately, his match against Nelson revealed a glaring hole in his arsenal; a hole that will keep him from ever becoming an elite MMA figther. Roy Nelson is an out-of-shape journeyman. He would be quickly destroyed by Brock Lesnar yet he was never in serious trouble against Kimbo. It's commendable that Kimbo was able to get in a few shots against him but Nelson exposed him for lacking two mandatory skillsets for fighters in the heavyweight division: takedown ability and takedown defense. I am convinced that it is impossible for a "striker" to succeed in the heavyweight division. Maybe it was possible five years ago when Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski were the only guys in town but those days ended when Randy Couture pummelled Sylvia for the heavyweight championship. Couture won because he was a master wrestler who could strike with the ability to takedown his opponent and exhibit takedown defense. Couture was a curious heavyweight champion because his svelte frame made him much more appropriate for the light-heavyweight division. He won by taking advantage of a division plagued with one-dimensional fighters. Considering what Lesnar did to Couture, it's safe to say that there isn't a loophole in the heavyweight division anymore.

With the emergence of Lesnar and, to a lesser extent, Shane Carwin and Frank Mir, the UFC heavyweight division has undergone a total makeover. The path to victory is now on the ground. Roy Nelson isn't an MMA powerhouse but he has multidisciplinary skills and the ability to take his opponent to the ground which he did easily to Kimbo. Kimbo had no defense for the fat-footed Nelson's takedown attempts which doesn't bode well for potential matchups with Lesnar, Carwin and Mir. Kimbo would get sent to the hospital by all three of them. I don't even want to think about what Fedor Emelianenko would do to him. Those are the toughest cats on the block but if Kimbo is going to be taken seriously, those are the guys he'll have to fight.

As for his future in the UFC and MMA, the fact that he didn't get killed by a seasoned-fighter will go along way. Kimbo has powerful name recognition right now and he'll be able to ride that for a few more fights. As for longterm success, don't look for any. Nelson is fat. The fact that he was able to manhandle Kimbo is the real story from their fight. Yes, he didn't get himself killed. Yes, he didn't embarrass himself. However, just like you can't teach a 35-year old strikeout machine plate discipline, you can't teach a 35-year old "ground and pound." Kimbo doesn't have the skills to compete. He missed his window of opportunity four or five years ago when the heavyweight division was a striker's division. Word to the wise: anybody who cares even a small amount about Kimbo will not let him get in the right with Lesnar, ever.

State of Desperation

The Michigan-Michigan State game on Saturday is a big deal for the Michigan Football Program. Michigan is 4-0 and has, at times, looked equally dominating and docile depending on the game, quarter and series. There have been so many positive and negative takeaways from Michigan's first four games that there is enough ammunition for both the most ardent supporter and the most hate-fueled detractor to get their points across and not sound like an internet flamer. Michigan leads the Big Ten in scoring and rushing. It has failed to put up fewer than 31 points in its first four games. There is no question that there has been a massive change since last season's carnival freak show. However, Michigan has had the luxury of playing all four games in the confines of Michigan Stadium where the noise level has never been higher. Tate Forcier has been a revelation but he has yet to experience the plague that ravages nearly every rookie signal caller in road game #1. If he's immune, then Michigan should be able to outscore the Spartans despite its Kleenex soft defense. If he's not, though, bad, bad things will happen at Spartan Stadium. Regardless of what happens in the game, Michigan has arrived earlier than anyone expected. Saturday will simply reveal to what extent.

Michigan has little to lose on Saturday. Nobody thinks this team is going undefeated. Nobody thinks this team is going to win the Big Ten. Most neutral observers don't even think Michigan will beat MSU. Vegas has it -2.5 in favor of Sparty. Michigan is young and inexperienced. This season is simply a training ground for a program badly in need of experience. A loss to Sparty would sting in the short-term but it's really irrelevant in the long-term. If Michigan doesn't beat Michigan State at home next season, then we can start thinking about which cliff to jump from.

The team that absolutely needs this game more than perhaps any other team needs any other game this season is Michigan State. Foolhardy as it may have been, Michigan State was almost universally picked to finish in the top three of the Big Ten this season. The "Mark Dantonio is God" hype train was moving forward with so much momentum that ridiculous assertions flew out of newspapers almost on a daily basis. The notion that Michigan State had taken over football supremacy in the state was bordering on fact according to many of the local media outlets. Michigan State's in-state recruiting dominance--something more of a oxymoron in the state of Michigan--was being woven with absurd half-truths like the Detroit Free Press' assertion (don't worry, it's the print page so there will be no evidence of your visit to the Freep) that Devin Gardner was only the 6th best player in the state of Michigan despite being the #1 QB in the country according to Rivals. The green and white propaganda machine was blazin' forward like Lewis and Clark on acid.

The problem with all of State's hype is that it was based on nothing. It was conjecture masquerading as fact. Oddly enough, the people who were most in-tune with what was really going on were recruitniks. Rich Rodriguez was killing it on the recruiting trail all the while MSU was picking up it's usual bin of mid-tier talent with one or two nice scores along the way. College football is about two things and two things only: coaching and talent. Rich Rodriguez has proven to be one of the best coaches in college football so many times now that I'm beginning to think he's doing it on purpose. Mark Dantonio has proven to be an average coach in his time with Cincinnati and Michigan State. Michigan has an enormous edge in "coaching." Anyone who watches college football should know that. What the average fan might not know--and this is why recruiting nuts are the most informed on this subject--is that Rodriguez is getting better athletes at Michigan than he could've ever imagined at West Virginia. This is as close to "1+1=2" as college football gets. A program with better coaching and more talent will--over the longterm--significantly beat out a program with inferior coaching and inferior talent.

In spite of this, MSU did so well in the propaganda game that it actually had an opportunity to turn the "hot air" hype into reality in the same way Spinal Tap capitalized on being a fake band by becoming an actual band. Even though the majority of the claims being made about the program were based on very little, few people would actually ever know that they were based on very little if Michigan State could've met expectations in 2009. Obviously, that didn't happen. Michigan State is 0-3 against I-A schools (I can't do the FBS thing) including a loss to Central Michigan at home. The result is Sparty trying to tell everyone to pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. I assume that after a 1-3 start, most people are on to the "act." However, total and undeniable exposure would come with a loss to Michigan on Saturday. A win would allow Sparty to keep up the charade for another week.

That's why this game means way more to MSU than it ever could to Michigan. A loss would move MSU to 1-4 and Michigan to 5-0. The records would be damning enough but the fact that this was supposed to be the year for MSU and a rebuilding year for Michigan would speak volumes about where each program is at and where each program is heading. Don't get me wrong; a loss to Michigan State would be a horrendous blow for Michigan and its fans. It's just that it will have little impact on the program moving forward. On the other hand, a loss for Michigan State would deplete Sparty of its credit limit at the Bank of "hot air."

Greinke Schoen

Zack Greinke has been the best pitcher in the American League since April. That should be obvious to anyone with or without a cerebral cortex. What wasn't obvious, at least until the last three weeks, was whether Greinke would win the AL Cy Young Award. As of September 16, he had just 13 wins which is three shy of the bare minimum number required to garner serious consideration. No starting pitcher in MLB history has won the Cy Young Award with fewer than 16 wins in a 162-game season. Fernando Valenzulea won 13 games in the strike-shortened '81 season. The idea of Greinke getting to 16 wins seemed nearly unfathomable on August 24 when he sat with just 11 wins. It seemed equally unfathomable on September 16 when had just 13 wins. Now? Well, he's got 16 wins. So, I guess it seems pretty fathomable. Greinke is 5-0 in his last seven starts with a .72 ERA in 50 innings. That's not even his best 50-inning stretch of the season. Needless to say, he has solidified himself as "the only AL pitcher in contention for the Cy Young."

This is a good story if you like baseball. Greinke famously suffered from social anxiety disorder and depression in 2006. He was so bad as a starter upon his return in 2007 that he was moved to the bullpen. He returned as a full-time starter in 2008 and posted promising numbers. Then there's the fact that he plays for the Kansas City Royals which has been the worst baseball franchise in the AL for 50 billion years. Kansas City is not exactly the place for a pitcher to breakout. That hasn't stopped Greinke. Despite KC's 64-92 record and virtually non-existant run-support, he has put together one of the most statistically impressive seasons of all-time accounting for 25% of KC's wins in the process. This is, indeed, a good baseball story. Fortunately, this is also a good story if you like the Detroit Tigers.

If you're a Tigers fan, then you are likely well aware of all of this. Greinke has destroyed the Tigers this season. In 36 innings (five starts), he is 3-1 with a 1.00 ERA, a .861 WHIP, and a .176 BAA. I don't have to tell you that those numbers are sickening. If you are a Tigers fan, you have had a case of the "Greinkies" five times this year. However, I am happy to report that "Greinke season" is over in Detroit and just getting started in Minnesota. While Greinke put up those truly horrifying numbers against the Tigers through the first five and a half months of the season, he posted the following line against the Minnesota Twins: 0 starts and 0 innings. Despite playing in the same division as the Tigers, the Twins somehow managed to avoid Greinkie for five and a half months. Their luck ubruptly ended yesterday.

The bell finally tolled for Minnesota on Sunday and the results were predictable for anyone who has fawned over Greinke's game logs this season. He blitzed Minnesota for seven innings of one-run ball. More importantly, he gave the Twins only their second loss in their last 13 games. Perhaps only one pitcher in the American League would've prevented the Twins from winning yet again. The Twins had climbed to within two games of Detroit and the Tigers were getting beat by the White Sox. A razor-thin one-game lead looked inevitable but Greinke's heroics prevented such a fate.

The Tigers must, at the very least, split their four-game series with the Twins this week to maintain their grip on the Central Division. If that doesn't happen, then it's hard to see the Tigers rebounding to overtake the Twins. However, the Tigers have an ace-in-the hole and it's not Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, or Rick Porcello. I'll give you a hint, I've written his name 13 times in this post already. Yep, it's Greinke who will, in effect, be pitching for the Tigers on Saturday when he faces the Twins again. In most instances, a last place team like Kansas City wouldn't have much motivation heading into the last weekend of the season. Thankfully for the Tigers, this is not most instances. Greinke is trying to slam the door on the Cy Young race and a win on Saturday would certainly do that. He will be dealin' and, hopefully, the Twins will be foldin'.

The Tigers can make most of this moot by splitting with the Twins over the next four days. They're playing at Comerica Park where they've only lost one of their last nine series. They roll out Verlander and Porcello today and tomorrow against the Twins. They'll also get both against the White Sox in the final two games of the season this weekend. The Tigers should be able to hold on to the division by themselves but don't be surprised if the margin in a tight race is Greinke's right arm against Minnesota on Saturday.

Walking the Line

In two weeks, the Tigers will have accomplished something truly extraordinary. Unfortunately, it's not yet evident whether it will be something extraordinarily good or extraordinarily bad. If they hold off the Twins and win the AL Central, it will go down as one of the most unexpected division titles in recent baseball history. Nobody picked the Tigers to win the division before the season. ESPN had 21 of its experts predict the AL Central and only one picked the Tigers. Sure, the division has been atrocious but when you can use fewer than half of your fingers on one hand to count postseason appearances over nearly a quarter of a century, simply getting to the playoffs is a huge deal.

Of course, this could also end tragically. The Twins have already shaved off 4.5 games in just over two weeks; an additional 2.5 games in the next ten days to pull even doesn't seem so unrealistic. As far as collapses go, this would be even worse than 2006. The Tigers snuck into the playoffs as a Wild Card in '06 so few people actually remember but they blew a 5.5 game lead on September 1st. If they blow it this year, it will be one of the greatest collapses in MLB history. The 2007 Mets are famously known for blowing a 7-game lead in the NL East on September 12. If the Tigers fail to hold off the Twins, their collapse would be nearly identical. They were up by 7-games on September 6. Rarely have ten regular season baseball games meant so much.

There is plenty of good news in the midst of a precarious situation for the Tigers. They hold a three game lead over the Twins which, according to Playoffstatus.com, gives them an 84% chance of winning the Central Division. Every GM in baseball would be ecstatic to find out before the season that they will have an 84% chance of making the playoffs with just ten games to go. Mathematically, the Tigers are in a strong position. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins control their own destiny. If they sweep the Tigers next week and play even with the Tigers in the remaining six games, they will win the division. Fortunately, the Tigers control their own destiny as well. If they take two of four against the Twins next week, it will be very difficult for the Twins to overcome it.

Of course, the only reason we're in this situation to begin with is because the Twins surprised nobody by catching fire and the Tigers surprised nobody by blowing a huge division lead. The Twins are 9-1 in their last ten games validating The Texas Chainsaw Massacre comparison I made back in June. The Twins are scary. They're even more scary when the Tigers go 7-9 over their last 16 games. If there's a silver lining here, it's that the Twins didn't get hot earlier. Had that happened, I'm not sure we're even talking about the "Tigers" and "playoffs" in the same sentence.

There is good news and bad news with respect to Minnesota's remaining schedule and it all has to do with the Kansas City Royals. The bad news is that the Twins play six of their last ten games against the lowly Royals. The good news is that the Royals are 12-5 in their last 17 games. Hopefully, the Royals can prove to be more useful to the Tigers than they were in '06. They, of course, swept the Tigers in the final series of the season to give the pennant to Minnesota. I hope the Royals fancy themselves as equal opportunity season-ruiners. I would hate to think that the sole purpose of the Royals franchise is to embarrass itself for 95% of every season and then ruin things for the Detroit Tigers. That would be a lame existence.

If you're getting a feeling a deja vu, you're not alone. The only difference between this year and 2006 is that the Tigers don't have the Wild Card to fall back on if they blow it. The Twins are hot on their heels, again. The Tigers are struggling in nearly every facet of the game, again. The mighty New York Yankees are poised to humiliate the Tigers in the first round, again. The Royals are the spoilers, again. I have no idea how the Tigers made the playoffs in '06 and I have no idea how they've led the AL Central for 137 consecutive days this season. I had no idea how they were going to win a single playoff game in '06, and I have no clue how they're going to win a game if they make it this year. I just hope the similarities continue because it gets real good after that. I've said it before and I'll say it again, no matter how bad things get over the next few weeks, this is so much better than the alternative.

Perspective and Patience

I was walking through the airport in Boston on Monday and came across a similarly outfitted Michigan fan. I was sporting a head-to-toe attire that must have looked more like an advertisement than a fashion statement. My advertising comrade remarked as he passed by, “Now we just have to beat Penn St!” Certainly it is possible that this particular fan has specific disdain for Penn St. Maybe he is from Pennsylvania and took a lot of crap from his buddies last year. Those motivations can’t be ruled out entirely. However, I’m pretty sure that’s not what provoked his statement. Expectations are rising faster than a space shuttle on Viagra. Just a few short weeks ago there weren’t any expectations. More than a few of Michigan's own fans actually thought a loss to Western was likely. There weren’t expectations of beating Notre Dame. There was hope but hope is something entirely different than expectation. There were no expectations of beating Michigan State in E. Lansing or Iowa in Iowa City. Again, there was hope but not expectation. Penn St. doesn’t come to Ann Arbor until October 24. Yet, "airport fan" already has Michigan 7-0 heading into that game. If it were just one guy, I could chalk this up to someone getting a little too excited a little too early. Unfortunately, this rapid change in expectation is starting to spread a little too fast for comfort. Seconds after Michigan capped off its dramatic win over Notre Dame, a fan turned around and said to me, "With EMU and Indiana next, we're basically 4-0 and then we should beat MSU and Iowa!" I was like, "whoa!" It’s not a wildfire or a plague, yet, but it could become one.

Confidence is high amongst the “M” fanbase and for good reason. Rich Rodriguez has accomplished as much in these first three games as he did in his entire first season. There is no doubt that Michigan is a “good” team. The problem is that “good” is very ambiguous. Nobody knows just how good and nobody will know until the wee hours of October 11 when Michigan finishes its wicked two-week road exam in E. Lansing and Iowa City. Blowing out Western and Eastern Michigan, and pulling out a squeaker against Notre Dame speaks to Michigan’s ability to be competitive which is vastly different from Michigan’s ability to beat good teams on the road. As a result of Michigan’s impressive start and Michigan State’s unimpressive one, Michigan fans now expect a victory in E. Lansing. I’m not sure that’s fair.

I’m not suggesting that Michigan will lose to Michigan State and Iowa. I have no idea what’s going to happen. I’m just saying that the expectation of a win is a disservice to both Rodriguez and the team. These guys were left for dead after last season. Nobody with the exception of a few level-headed Michigan fans had the Wolverines even remotely on their radar heading into this season. As a result, any success this season should be viewed as a bonus. If fans absolutely need to get carried away with something, they should get carried away with the idea that Rodriguez should be the frontrunner for National Coach of the Year. His team is averaging 38 points per game with two true freshmen at quarterback.

Some may not understand the dangers of seemingly innocent expectations—especially in this particular instance. Trust me, expectations are never harmless. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Michigan. Even the most enthusiastic of supporters of the program admitted that the struggles of 2008 would likely haunt Michigan through 2009. Everyone knows how difficult it is to transform a football program from something as specified as a pro-style attack to something equally and oppositely specified as the spread. Rodriguez hasn’t received any favors off the field but he’s been given some leeway on it. If we infuse expectations into 2009, then Rodriguez suddenly becomes vulnerable to something that he was supposed to be immune to this season. When expectations aren’t met, criticism is quick to follow and that is the last thing this team needs. Large groups of people cannot be trusted to handle failed expectations with "a grain of salt." That is why the term "mob mentality" exists. Instead of asking people to do the impossible by acting reasonably in the face of failed expectations, the expectations should be eliminated all together. They serve no purpose; not this season.

I mentioned that new expectations are not fair to Rodriguez but I also mentioned that they aren’t fair to the team. The latter is not to be overlooked. Michigan is being led by two true freshmen quarterbacks. The fact that they’ve managed to put up 38 points per game so far is truly unprecedented. However, it’s all been at home against defenses that are hardly physical. At some point in the next year or two, Tate Forcier and/or Denard Robinson will be savvy enough to perform equally well on the road as they do at home. Right now, though, there should be every expectation that these guys will struggle in hostile environments. Even veteran quarterbacks struggle on the road. Increased expectations are simply not fair to Forcier, Robinson and the rest of a team that was universally picked to finish near the back of a weak Big Ten conference.

Unfortunately, "expectations" have already started to have a negative impact. I couldn’t help but to chuckle at the headlines and stories that discussed Forcier’s “struggles” against Eastern Michigan. Michigan won 45-17. That’s a four touchdown spread. Forcier had zero interceptions and completed over 50% of his passes. He was called to pass just 13 times compared to 33 attempts against Notre Dame. Michigan ran the ball 39 times against EMU because it was averaging 9.7 yards per carry. Forcier didn’t struggle because he didn’t have a chance to struggle. He was asked to hand the ball off and not make mistakes and that's what he did. That didn’t stop ESPN’s Big Ten blogger, Adam Rittenberg, from reporting that Forcier struggled. It also didn’t stop the AP from making Forcier’s struggles the story of the game. The original title of that story was, “Forcier struggles, Brown lifts Michigan.” It was, of course, changed to a more fitting title most likely because it looked incredibly silly next to a four touchdown blowout.

The “Forcier Struggles” angle could be a prophetic sign of what could come later in the season if Michigan starts looking more like the young team that it is. Unreasonable expectations lead to unreasonable criticisms. Nobody would be talking about Forcier “struggling” if he hadn’t been idiotically thrown into the Heisman race after the Notre Dame game by overzealous college football writers and pundits. Likewise, nobody would have any reason to blast Rodriguez for road losses to good teams if his young Michigan team wasn’t built-up sooner than it should be. This is a talented but inexperienced team with many unanswered questions. Those questions will be answered by Mid-October. Meanwhile, Tate Forcier is playing really well. Michigan is playing really well. Why can’t that be enough for now?