There needs to be reform in college football recruiting. Despite the fact that even knowing recruiting exists may indict me on being a basement-dwelling freak, I can’t believe that a stand-up organization (sarcasm intended) like the NCAA would allow such absurdity to go on under its watch. Apparently the NCAA has taken an interest in said absurdity. Considering the NCAA has done everything it can to take away from the enjoyment of college football, I would not expect much to come of their “interest”.
Recruiting is a fascinating and weird phenomenon. At the very core of the weirdness is the fact that many otherwise rational college football fans engross themselves in the decisions made by 17 and 18-year old kids. I remember when I was 17 years old. No offense to my 17-year old self, but I was a moron in the nicest way possible. I can’t imagine other 17-year olds being that much different than I was in terms of maturity and understanding the effects of my actions. To think that there could have been thousands of rabid fans agonizing over my decision seems laughable. I almost didn’t even apply to Michigan because I didn’t want to write the essays. So yeah, recruiting is centered on kids who are probably just like that.
The other part of the weirdness is that, measurables and hyperbole aside, 90% of people that follow recruiting don’t know the first thing about the recruits that they invest so much of their hopes into. I know I don’t. Some call that creepy, I prefer foolhardy. Even though it seems like the negative emotions from following recruiting almost always offset the positive emotions, it is so hard to ignore the inherent lure to college football fans. It combines schools pride with unlimited potential. It is the draft of college football. Following recruiting is as irrational as following the NFL draft. For someone to try to arbitrarily draw a line between the two is ridiculous.
That brings me to the reason why recruiting reform is needed in the first place. Recruiting has been infiltrated by broken promises, negative recruiting, and decommitments. I suppose that has always been the landscape but things have escalated to a new never-before-seen-level. Everyone from the NCAA to the coaches to the recruits to the parents has played a part in creating a culture of dishonesty. There are a number of reasons why coaches and recruits manipulate and renege on their word. Without ethical rules in place to govern the way coaches behave in the recruiting process, you can’t really blame them especially when they seem to be acting in the best interests of their families (better recruits means more wins, more wins means better job security, better job security means more money, more money means happy families (at least in theory)). You can’t really blame recruits for similar reasons. But, the reasons why the reneging and decommitting are happening aren’t nearly as important as why the NCAA has allowed for such a culture to exist. With all of the rules the NCAA forces coaches and players to follow, one would think there would be a clear set of guidelines preventing coaches and players from lying through their teeth without consequences.
There seems to be somewhat of an unwritten rule in college basketball that coaches stay away from committed recruits (don’t tell this to Illinois or Michigan fans), it seems that college football coaches actually become more interested in recruits after they have committed. The world of college football coaching is very similar to the world of used-car salesmen. Not every football coach is shady. My guess is most are. What makes the recruiting scene particularly annoying for this Michigan fan is that Michigan’s football and basketball coaches are by all accounts “stand-up guys”. That inevitably leads to them being the victim of decommitments without benefiting from them (Jeremy Van Alstyne aside). They don’t meddle with committed kids. For every recruiter like Lloyd Carr and Tommy Amaker, there are ten recruiters that will tell a recruit anything and everything to get him to pledge allegiance to their schools. There are hundreds of rules that these coaches have to abide by. Unfortunately, there are no rules prohibiting coaches from lying or misleading recruits and vice versa.
Although the coaches seem to be the ones doing the most to facilitate such a distasteful environment, the coaches are certainly not the only culprits in this mess. The recruits and their families are just as responsible as the coaches. Whenever a recruit goes back on his word, that decision is inevitably characterized as “par for the course when dealing with 17 and 18-year old kids”. That pretty much excuses any prospective college athlete from having even the slightest bit of integrity. That also excuses the parents from having integrity as well. That reminds me of the famous quote from Jerry Maguire when Cush’s dad (Beau Bridges) says, “What you do have is my whole word, and it's stronger than oak.” Of course, that was just before he stabbed Jerry Maguire in the back and signed with Bob Sugar. And that is how things are unfolding right now. Without the luxury of a binding commitment until well after the average recruit has committed, coaches have to hope they aren’t being fed a bunch of empty promises by a recruit that may or may not be looking to improve his own position at all costs.
Even if being indecisive seems to be “par for the course” for young adults, someone has to be held accountable for a recruit not sticking to his word. I understand some of the arguments that kids are fickle and it is in their nature to change their minds. That is certainly a reasonable stance. If the kids aren’t going to be held accountable for their decisions, then their parents need to be. I don’t think it’s reasonable to allow kids to significantly affect the lives of hundreds of people (coaches, players etc.) because they aren’t willing to live up to their word. If an 18-year old signs up for the army and decides to renege on that commitment after being given orders to report to Iraq, he/she doesn’t have the luxury of decommitting. No commander is going to accept the excuse that kids are fickle and it’s in their nature to change their minds. In many corners of society, 17 and 18-year old kids are expected to live up to their word. College football should be no different.
Decommitting used to be a big deal. Now, if you don’t decommit, you aren’t cool. In fact, if you don’t decommit at least twice, you are falling behind the curve. Take the cases of Jerimy Finch and Cedric Everson for example:
Finch verbally committed to Michigan which undoubtedly led the Michigan coaching staff to focus their efforts on other positions. Well into the recruiting season, Finch informed Michigan that he was decommitting. He then committed to Indiana which undoubtedly led the Indiana coaching staff to focus their efforts on other positions. Shortly after that, he informed Indiana that he was decommitting again but would still consider Indiana, along with Michigan and Florida before announcing on Signing Day. Finch ended up committing to the only place that would do the story justice—Florida.
Everson verbally committed to Georgia Tech which undoubtedly led the Georgia Tech coaching staff to focus their efforts on other positions. After Georgia Tech had a shake up in its coaching staff, Everson essentially decommitted from Georgia Tech upon which he committed to Michigan State. Michigan State undoubtedly focused its efforts on other positions after getting word from Everson that he was in the fold. That was until Everson informed Michigan State that he was decommitting again to go to Iowa.
Some may argue that all of the double-crossing and reneging is just a necessary evil. I suppose that could be the case if the double crossing didn’t dually encourage dishonesty from 17 and 18 year old kids and coaches while having a tremendous impact on the job security of coaches that actually do take a more integrity-based approach to recruiting. I don’t want to give too much credit to one or two recruits. However, there is no question that coaches live and die by the success that they have on the recruiting trail. When a recruit decommits late in the season, he runs the risk of causing a school to come up empty at a position of need. If that recruit waits until most of the other highly recruited recruits have committed or until signing day to decommitt, then that school is left with nothing. That can be a crippling blow by itself. Imagine if a coach enticed a “silent verbal” to commit to a rival school with the intention of shunning them on Signing Day? As far as I know, that has happened yet. But considering the underhanded nature of recruiting, is it really unreasonable to think that might happen?
If you still aren’t convinced that decommitments can’t have a significant impact on the state of an entire athletic program, then consider what happened to the Michigan basketball program just a few years back. Joe Crawford and Al Horford decommitted from Michigan leaving Tommy Amaker with a one-man recruiting class of Ronald Coleman. Say what you will about Amaker’s coaching (I know I have), having Crawford and Horford over these last three years would have made all the difference in the world in terms of on-court success and recruiting.
That kind of thing happens all of the time in college football recruiting. Just in the last two years alone, Michigan received verbal commitments from Nic Harris (ended up at Oklahoma), Jai Eugene (ended up at LSU) and Finch (ended up at Florida) only to be bamboozled very late in the recruiting process. You can bet that in each instance, Lloyd Carr changed his recruiting emphasis after thinking the players were in the fold. When they reneged on their commitments, Carr was left scrambling to fill those empty scholarships.
Acknowledging that something is wrong and coming up with a solution are two different beasts. Most people can admit that there is something wrong in Iraq right now. Very few people can agree on a solution. I suspect we will see the same thing with recruiting reform. College football coaches (yes, even the ones that are doing the manipulating and cherry-picking) will scream foul play. Some will give suggestions on how to remedy the situation but it will likely take a long time before anyone can agree on the proper course of action. As much as the NCAA would like everyone to believe, it doesn’t take rocket science to come up with a solution. The answer has to start with holding commitments with higher regard. A commitment (even a verbal commitment) has to mean what it’s supposed to mean. What good is a commitment if it’s only temporary? If a kid commits to a school, there should be consequences for decommitting. I would have no problem with a rule that states a decommittment incurs a loss of a year of eligibility or at the very least, forcing the recruit to sit out a year. If this rule was initiated, it would make sense to allow for transfers after at least one full season at a school. The point isn’t to punish a kid for his entire collegiate life because of a regretful decision. The point is to force recruits to think the process through before haphazardly committing to a coaching staff. That sounds harsh but I think it is more than fair. This whole thing started because the NCAA has allowed an environment that encourages dishonesty. It can make up for its transgressions by punishing dishonesty.
The way things are right now, nothing a recruit says means anything until he signs a Letter of Intent. That needs to change. Verbal commitments should be given “official” status by coming with paperwork. Likewise, coaches should be obligated to keep a recruit once an offer has been given and accepted. Coaches should not be given the luxury of binding a recruit to a commitment without having to live up to his commitment as well. Making verbal commitments binding would essentially create an early signing period that is in effect all the way until signing day. Instead of signing day being the pinnacle of the college football recruiting season, it should simply be viewed as the last day a recruit can commit somewhere.
There also needs to be a rule discouraging coaches from contacting kids that have committed. With a decommitment meaning a loss of a year of eligibility, I doubt that we’ll see any decommitments. However, coaches should only be allowed to contact a kid after that kid decommits—not before. I have no problem with a rule that would allow the coach of the team that received the initial commitment to allow the recruit a release from his commitment to pursue other interests. It should be written in stone that no committed recruit is to be contacted by another coach. That, along with taking commitments in literal terms, needs to be the focus of the recruiting reform.
I know some people don’t like absolutes. There would be complaints about these reforms being too tough on kids. I don’t have any sympathy for that school of thought. If the kids aren’t going to be held accountable, then their parents need to be. The NCAA makes such a big deal about not violating their rules but they have created a breeding ground for the largest amount of ethical violations it has ever witnessed.
The outcome of these rules would hopefully be a more thought out recruiting process on behalf of both the recruits and the coaches. The recruits would be forced to do more research on various schools and explore all options since the consequences of a decommitment would be too harsh to risk. The coaches would no longer be able to rely on stealing kids from other schools to complete their classes.
I have read on more than one occasion the viewpoint that as long as coaches can leave whenever they want to, recruits should be able to change their minds whenever they want as well. I don’t have a problem with that thinking. There should be a rule that states that if a coach leaves the program before the end of the signing period, recruits that had committed to that school can decommit without incurring a loss of eligibility. That seems reasonable to me.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Monday, February 12, 2007
NCAA Tournament Projections (week of February 11)
Whereas last week there were 70 teams to fill 65 spots, this week there are 67 teams to fill 65 spots. Only Maryland and Texas Tech have relatively good chances of climbing their way back into the field. I can’t remember a year with so many mediocre basketball teams. Unless there are a slew of upsets in the conference tournaments, this year’s group of bubble teams will be an all-time low. I do wonder what the Selection Committee will do with Louisville if it finishes 10-6 in the Big East. That could happen rather easily. Louisville will still likely see its RPI in the 70s with zero wins of significance. I would think it would be an easy decision but 10 conference wins in the Big East can be a big tease.
My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
Changes from last week:
In: BYU, Kansas St., and Purdue
Out: Michigan St., Texas Tech, and Maryland
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large BYU
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Alabama
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Kansas St.
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton
My projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.
The last five teams in the tourney right now:
1. Purdue
RPI rating: 40
Pomeroy rating: 34
Quality wins: Virginia, Oklahoma (neutral), Michigan St., and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Indiana St., and @ Minnesota
Purdue has to either beat Indiana at home or Iowa on the road. If neither of those things happen, then the best Purdue can finish is 8-8 in an extremely weak Big Ten. If Purdue can split those games, that would set up an easy three-game finish against Northwestern (2) and Minnesota. Purdue still has some decent non-conference wins to boost its profile. Even with the Big Ten being down, I think 9-7 would get Purdue in.
2. Georgia
RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 28
Quality wins: Gonzaga (neutral), Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, and Kentucky
Bad losses: none
Georgia might not even be on the list of “last teams in the NCAA Tournament” soon enough. Georgia could easily get to 9-5 in the SEC after its next three conference games. However, if Georgia loses any of those three games, it will struggle to finish better than 8-8 in the SEC. It would have to win one of its last two games against Tennessee or @ Kentucky. I do think 9-7 gets Georgia in.
3. Arkansas
RPI rating: 37
Pomeroy rating: 35
Quality wins: Southern Illinois (neutral), West Virginia (neutral), Alabama, @ Alabama
Bad losses: @ Missouri and @ S. Carolina
Arkansas is not making things easy for its fans. The Razorbacks stand at 4-6 in the SEC. If they lose any more games against teams that they should beat, they could be out of the running for an at-large bid. The good news for Arkansas is that it gets to play Mississippi St. (2), Mississippi, and Auburn. If that ends up being four wins, then Arkansas will probably be invited to the Big Dance.
4. Illinois
RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 31
Quality wins: Bradley (neutral), Michigan St., and Indiana
Bad losses: none
I had a sense back in early January when Illinois was struggling that it would make the tournament. That had more to do with the Big Ten being weak than anything else. Illinois has all but secured a bid. Its resume probably doesn’t look that impressive but the answer to why Illinois will be getting a bid lies in its remaining schedule. Out of its four remaining games, three are locks and the third is not unlikely. That would put Illinois at 10-6 or 9-7 at worst in the Big Ten. Illinois’ season has been far from special. Two of its best wins aren’t even that impressive. Nonetheless, the Illini are heading to the Big Dance barring a collapse.
5. Alabama
RPI rating: 30
Pomeroy rating: 58
Quality wins: Xavier (neutral) and Georgia
Bad losses: @ Auburn
In ten days, Alabama could easily be sitting at 5-8 in the SEC. Two weeks after that, Alabama could easily finish 8-8 in the SEC. ‘Bama would do itself a huge favor by not losing anymore games to the weaker teams in the SEC. I’m not sure that 8-8 would be enough to get Alabama into the Big Dance. I know they are “viewed” as a top 25 team so that may help them get in. But, if the Selection Committee really looks at resume only and not perception, then an 8-8 Alabama team should struggle to get an invitation.
On the outside looking in:
1. Maryland
RPI rating: 33
Pomeroy rating: 19
Quality wins: Michigan St. (neutral), @ Illinois, Clemson, and Duke
Bad losses: Miami (FL)
If Duke wasn’t currently in a free-fall, then Maryland’s win over Duke last night might have been enough to get them into the projections. Since a win over Duke isn’t as impressive as it usually is and Maryland is only 4-6 in the ACC, it falls short this week. With victories over Michigan St., and Illinois, Maryland has the makings of a competitive resume. If Maryland can get to 8-8 in the ACC, I think it will make the tournament. That would require two wins over NC State, and then two wins out of the following: @ Clemson, Florida St., North Carolina, and @ Duke. I don’t see it happening.
2. Texas Tech
RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 57
Quality wins: @ Arkansas, Oklahoma, @ Kansas St., Kansas and Texas A&M
Bad losses: @ Baylor, @ Missouri, and Nebraska
Texas Tech has pulled a classic “choke job”. It’s one thing to lose but it’s another thing to lose to a bunch of teams you have no business losing to. Texas Tech has wins over Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas St., Kansas, and Texas A&M. That’s one of the best collections of five-wins in basketball. Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, they have lost to Baylor, Missouri, and Nebraska. All is not lost though. If Texas Tech can beat Colorado, Baylor, and Iowa St. (the three worst teams in the Big XII), then it will only need to win one against Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma St. to get to 8-8 in the Big XII. Considering the wins over Kansas and Texas A&M, I think 8-8 would put Texas Tech in.
3. Michigan St.
RPI rating: 42
Pomeroy rating: 27
Quality wins: Texas (neutral), Bradley, BYU, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Iowa
Stick a fork in the Spartans. They are done. I can’t believe it either. I thought for sure that MSU was headed to the Big Dance. I suppose a run in the Big Ten tournament could make things interesting come Selection Sunday but MSU has to win a game against Wisconsin (2) or Indiana just to finish 8-8 in the Big Ten. I don’t see that happening. And, even if MSU does win one of those games, Michigan could accidentally win one of its two games against MSU. It would take a miracle for MSU to finish 8-8. Maybe Izzo has another trick up his sleeve. I wouldn’t bet on it.
4. Old Dominion
RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 62
Quality wins: @ Georgetown, @ Drexel, Drexel, and Virginia Commonwealth
Bad losses: @ Marist and @ James Madison
Old Dominion was lingering around for a little while just outside of the “bubble” radar but it is hard to ignore the Monarchs now. They don’t have the greatest RPI in the world but they have four wins in the RPI 50. They won at Georgetown. They are 12-3 in the CAA including two wins over Drexel and a win over Virginia Commonwealth. Old Dominion could end up being the automatic bid from the CAA which would put VCU squarely on the bubble. With Hofstra and Drexel playing good basketball, it would surprise me if the CAA didn’t at least get strong consideration for a second bid.
5. Bradley
RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 60
Quality wins: S. Illinois
Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech
Bradley has a chance to make or break its season. With the MVC having so much success, it will get every opportunity to get teams into to the tournament. I’m guessing that a team that finishes 11-7 in the conference would have to get serious consideration. In order for Bradley to get to 11 wins, it would have to win its remaining three conference games. Even then, it might have to win a game or two in the MVC Conference Tournament to be in the running for an automatic bid. Luckily for Bradley, all three games are very winnable. The fourth game is a Bracket Buster showdown with VCU. Winning all four would put Bradley at 20-10 on the season with an RPI likely in the top 40. I don’t think Bradley can get it done but it’s certainly possible.
6. Oklahoma
7. Louisville
8. Providence
9. Hofstra
10. Drexel
Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament
#33 Maryland
#42 Michigan St.
#45 Texas Tech
#47 Bradley
#50 Drexel
#52 Providence
#53 San Diego St.
#55 Mississippi
#56 Georgia Tech
#58 Old Dominion
#59 Michigan
#61 Oklahoma
Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections
#54 Texas
#51 Notre Dame
#49 Kansas St.
#48 Vanderbilt
#46 USC
#43 Georgia
#41 Illinois
#40 Purdue
#39 Stanford
#38 West Virginia
#37 Arkansas
#35 Virginia
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (7)
UNC
Duke
BC
Virginia
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU
Big East (6)
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
SEC (7)
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Alabama
Pac-10 (6)
UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford
Big XII (5)
Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Kansas St.
Texas A&M
Texas
Big Ten (5)
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
MVC (3)
Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton
MWC (3)
Air Force
UNLV
BYU
My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
Changes from last week:
In: BYU, Kansas St., and Purdue
Out: Michigan St., Texas Tech, and Maryland
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large BYU
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Alabama
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Kansas St.
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Purdue
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton
My projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.
The last five teams in the tourney right now:
1. Purdue
RPI rating: 40
Pomeroy rating: 34
Quality wins: Virginia, Oklahoma (neutral), Michigan St., and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Indiana St., and @ Minnesota
Purdue has to either beat Indiana at home or Iowa on the road. If neither of those things happen, then the best Purdue can finish is 8-8 in an extremely weak Big Ten. If Purdue can split those games, that would set up an easy three-game finish against Northwestern (2) and Minnesota. Purdue still has some decent non-conference wins to boost its profile. Even with the Big Ten being down, I think 9-7 would get Purdue in.
2. Georgia
RPI rating: 43
Pomeroy rating: 28
Quality wins: Gonzaga (neutral), Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, and Kentucky
Bad losses: none
Georgia might not even be on the list of “last teams in the NCAA Tournament” soon enough. Georgia could easily get to 9-5 in the SEC after its next three conference games. However, if Georgia loses any of those three games, it will struggle to finish better than 8-8 in the SEC. It would have to win one of its last two games against Tennessee or @ Kentucky. I do think 9-7 gets Georgia in.
3. Arkansas
RPI rating: 37
Pomeroy rating: 35
Quality wins: Southern Illinois (neutral), West Virginia (neutral), Alabama, @ Alabama
Bad losses: @ Missouri and @ S. Carolina
Arkansas is not making things easy for its fans. The Razorbacks stand at 4-6 in the SEC. If they lose any more games against teams that they should beat, they could be out of the running for an at-large bid. The good news for Arkansas is that it gets to play Mississippi St. (2), Mississippi, and Auburn. If that ends up being four wins, then Arkansas will probably be invited to the Big Dance.
4. Illinois
RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 31
Quality wins: Bradley (neutral), Michigan St., and Indiana
Bad losses: none
I had a sense back in early January when Illinois was struggling that it would make the tournament. That had more to do with the Big Ten being weak than anything else. Illinois has all but secured a bid. Its resume probably doesn’t look that impressive but the answer to why Illinois will be getting a bid lies in its remaining schedule. Out of its four remaining games, three are locks and the third is not unlikely. That would put Illinois at 10-6 or 9-7 at worst in the Big Ten. Illinois’ season has been far from special. Two of its best wins aren’t even that impressive. Nonetheless, the Illini are heading to the Big Dance barring a collapse.
5. Alabama
RPI rating: 30
Pomeroy rating: 58
Quality wins: Xavier (neutral) and Georgia
Bad losses: @ Auburn
In ten days, Alabama could easily be sitting at 5-8 in the SEC. Two weeks after that, Alabama could easily finish 8-8 in the SEC. ‘Bama would do itself a huge favor by not losing anymore games to the weaker teams in the SEC. I’m not sure that 8-8 would be enough to get Alabama into the Big Dance. I know they are “viewed” as a top 25 team so that may help them get in. But, if the Selection Committee really looks at resume only and not perception, then an 8-8 Alabama team should struggle to get an invitation.
On the outside looking in:
1. Maryland
RPI rating: 33
Pomeroy rating: 19
Quality wins: Michigan St. (neutral), @ Illinois, Clemson, and Duke
Bad losses: Miami (FL)
If Duke wasn’t currently in a free-fall, then Maryland’s win over Duke last night might have been enough to get them into the projections. Since a win over Duke isn’t as impressive as it usually is and Maryland is only 4-6 in the ACC, it falls short this week. With victories over Michigan St., and Illinois, Maryland has the makings of a competitive resume. If Maryland can get to 8-8 in the ACC, I think it will make the tournament. That would require two wins over NC State, and then two wins out of the following: @ Clemson, Florida St., North Carolina, and @ Duke. I don’t see it happening.
2. Texas Tech
RPI rating: 45
Pomeroy rating: 57
Quality wins: @ Arkansas, Oklahoma, @ Kansas St., Kansas and Texas A&M
Bad losses: @ Baylor, @ Missouri, and Nebraska
Texas Tech has pulled a classic “choke job”. It’s one thing to lose but it’s another thing to lose to a bunch of teams you have no business losing to. Texas Tech has wins over Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas St., Kansas, and Texas A&M. That’s one of the best collections of five-wins in basketball. Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, they have lost to Baylor, Missouri, and Nebraska. All is not lost though. If Texas Tech can beat Colorado, Baylor, and Iowa St. (the three worst teams in the Big XII), then it will only need to win one against Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma St. to get to 8-8 in the Big XII. Considering the wins over Kansas and Texas A&M, I think 8-8 would put Texas Tech in.
3. Michigan St.
RPI rating: 42
Pomeroy rating: 27
Quality wins: Texas (neutral), Bradley, BYU, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Iowa
Stick a fork in the Spartans. They are done. I can’t believe it either. I thought for sure that MSU was headed to the Big Dance. I suppose a run in the Big Ten tournament could make things interesting come Selection Sunday but MSU has to win a game against Wisconsin (2) or Indiana just to finish 8-8 in the Big Ten. I don’t see that happening. And, even if MSU does win one of those games, Michigan could accidentally win one of its two games against MSU. It would take a miracle for MSU to finish 8-8. Maybe Izzo has another trick up his sleeve. I wouldn’t bet on it.
4. Old Dominion
RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 62
Quality wins: @ Georgetown, @ Drexel, Drexel, and Virginia Commonwealth
Bad losses: @ Marist and @ James Madison
Old Dominion was lingering around for a little while just outside of the “bubble” radar but it is hard to ignore the Monarchs now. They don’t have the greatest RPI in the world but they have four wins in the RPI 50. They won at Georgetown. They are 12-3 in the CAA including two wins over Drexel and a win over Virginia Commonwealth. Old Dominion could end up being the automatic bid from the CAA which would put VCU squarely on the bubble. With Hofstra and Drexel playing good basketball, it would surprise me if the CAA didn’t at least get strong consideration for a second bid.
5. Bradley
RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 60
Quality wins: S. Illinois
Bad losses: @ Tennessee Tech
Bradley has a chance to make or break its season. With the MVC having so much success, it will get every opportunity to get teams into to the tournament. I’m guessing that a team that finishes 11-7 in the conference would have to get serious consideration. In order for Bradley to get to 11 wins, it would have to win its remaining three conference games. Even then, it might have to win a game or two in the MVC Conference Tournament to be in the running for an automatic bid. Luckily for Bradley, all three games are very winnable. The fourth game is a Bracket Buster showdown with VCU. Winning all four would put Bradley at 20-10 on the season with an RPI likely in the top 40. I don’t think Bradley can get it done but it’s certainly possible.
6. Oklahoma
7. Louisville
8. Providence
9. Hofstra
10. Drexel
Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament
#33 Maryland
#42 Michigan St.
#45 Texas Tech
#47 Bradley
#50 Drexel
#52 Providence
#53 San Diego St.
#55 Mississippi
#56 Georgia Tech
#58 Old Dominion
#59 Michigan
#61 Oklahoma
Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections
#54 Texas
#51 Notre Dame
#49 Kansas St.
#48 Vanderbilt
#46 USC
#43 Georgia
#41 Illinois
#40 Purdue
#39 Stanford
#38 West Virginia
#37 Arkansas
#35 Virginia
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (7)
UNC
Duke
BC
Virginia
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU
Big East (6)
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
SEC (7)
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Alabama
Pac-10 (6)
UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford
Big XII (5)
Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Kansas St.
Texas A&M
Texas
Big Ten (5)
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
Purdue
Illinois
MVC (3)
Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton
MWC (3)
Air Force
UNLV
BYU
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Michigan's Next Basketball Coach
Regardless of whether Tommy Amaker is going to remain Michigan’s basketball coach after this season, the fact remains that the vast majority of Michigan basketball fans are disgruntled with the state of the program. Keep in mind that this is the same fanbase that was more than willing to give Amaker ample time to make his mark. I can’t think of a coach that was given more time and excuses than what Amaker has received. I don’t think the rumblings from the fanbase are unreasonable in the slightest. The program is no better off in year six than it was in year one other than being five years farther away from the probation era.
Amaker’s tenure has been marked by a lack of preparedness and a noticeable lack of progression by his players. It is amazing how many times I have spoken to Michigan basketball fans who agree that Dion Harris, Lester Abram, and Courtney Sims were actually better during their freshman year than they are as seniors. I suppose an argument could be made that they were just overrated to begin with but that really makes no difference. Even overrated players improve over four seasons. Harris, Abram, and Sims are hardly the only players that have not progressed under Amaker. In fact, I can’t name a single player that noticeably improved from their freshman year. If that isn’t an indictment on Amaker, then I don’t know what is.
If Michigan is going to get back to its winning ways on the court, it will have to do what so many struggling basketball programs have done—bring in a proven winner. A proven winner is not necessarily the same as a big-name coach. They can be the same—but they don’t have to be. Michigan probably won’t have the luxury of bringing in a big name and that might not be such a bad thing. It’s not hard to find a coach that has won consistently at multiple institutions. Some of the best coaches in America are coaches that nobody had even heard of five years ago.
Quick turnarounds are not as hard as Amaker has made them out to be. It certainly shouldn’t take six years. It took all of six months before Bob Huggins transformed Kansas St. from an awful program into a serious candidate for the NCAA Tournament. Huggins might not be your “cup of tea” since he has had issues in the past but there are plenty of coaches like Huggins. Michigan took a chance in hiring Amaker because he hadn’t really accomplished anything tangible in his coaching career. He “supposedly” had the pedigree but whether he could lead a college basketball program to great things was not known. Amaker has been a coach for ten seasons. Look at any other coaching resume of ten seasons and you’ll know immediately if you’re dealing with a good coach or an average coach. It doesn’t take good coaches ten seasons to find their niche.
I cited a few statistics last week in a post that I wrote regarding Amaker’s tenure. Most of those statistics featured won/loss records on the road and records against other Big Ten teams. What I didn’t get into was margin of defeat. While Michigan is 5-36 on the road against teams that aren’t Penn St. and Northwestern, the average margin of defeat in those 36 losses is 16 points. Since Amaker took over in 2002, Michigan’s average margin of defeat on the road is actually worse than Northwestern’s. Since Northwestern doesn’t have the luxury of playing itself twice per season, its road schedule has actually been more difficult than Michigan’s. It’s one thing for a team to lose too often but it’s a completely different thing to lose too often by a gazillion points. My point here is that Michigan isn’t even close to breaking through. It’s not like Amaker has been stung by fluke losses. For six seasons he has had decent players but nothing has changed since year one. His teams either beat very bad teams or lose by a lot to good teams. Almost any coach could accomplish the same thing.
Michigan needs to hire a coach that can stamp an identity onto the program. That coach needs to be a coach that has actually led a program beyond expectations in the past. That coach needs to be a coach that has helped decent players become great players. The next coach can’t be a coach with “potential”. There are far too many coaches available that have proven the ability to do all of the things that Amaker was supposed to be able to do. I understand Bill Martin wants to reward Amaker for keeping the program out of trouble and for taking a huge mess without complaining. Unfortunately for Martin and Amaker, the fanbase has much higher expectations than a nice basketball coach leading an underachieving program.
Here is a list of candidates that Michigan should seriously consider if it decides to move beyond the Amaker era. I only included coaches that might actually want to coach at Michigan. I can’t see Jamie Dixon leaving Pittsburgh or Jay Wright leaving Villanova. Those are basketball schools that are legitimate championship contenders. I’m not saying that Michigan is a better job than every school on this list. I just think that these coaches would at least listen to Michigan if it called. There really is no harm in “shooting for the stars” but I chose not to waste everyone’s time with that. I also did not include coaches that just started at a new school like Anthony Grant (VCU), Bobby Gonzalez (Seton Hall), and Greg McDermott (Iowa St.) among others. Those coaches could be ready to move on to bigger and better places (whether Michigan is bigger and better remains to be seen) in a few years.
Michigan Basketball Coaching Candidates
1). Tom Crean Marquette Head Coach
Whether you like Tom Izzo or not, there is no question that he is one of the top coaches in college basketball. Crean is probably the closest thing there is to Izzo. In fact, Crean's time at Marquette is remarkably similar to Izzo's time at MSU. Both hovered around .500 in their first two seasons before seeing their programs blow up. Crean coached under Izzo at MSU. He has put Marquette back on the map. He was an excellent recruiter at MSU and continues to be an excellent recruiter at Marquette. Crean has won at least 19 games in each of the last six seasons including a trip to the Final Four in 2003. Marquette handled its move to the Big East brilliantly which is saying a lot considering how much better the Big East is than Marquette's former conference--Conference USA.
Crean also has a Michigan connection as he is Jim Harbaugh's brother-in-law. Getting Crean to leave Marquette may be a tough sell but it is certainly worth a shot. I don't think there is any question that Crean would return Michigan to its glory days.
2). Billy Gillispie Texas A&M Head Coach
I don't think there is a more impressive coach in college basketball right now than Billy Gillispie. Texas A&M hadn't had a good college basketball program in my lifetime until Gillispie came aboard. He is on his way to a third 20-win season in three years at A&M. The year before Gillispie arrived, A&M was 7-21. In Gillispie's first year, he went 21-10. He followed that with a 22-9 record and a trip to the NCAA Tournament. In his third season, he has A&M firmly in the top ten and in line for a two or three seed in the tournament.
Gillispie is no one-trick pony either. He took over the UTEP program in 2002. In his first season, UTEP went 6-24. In his second season, he took UTEP to the NCAA Tournament with a 24-8 record. This is the kind of coach that Michigan fans have been clamoring for. He preaches defense without yielding disorganization on offense. He clearly makes the most out of his talent as the cupboards were certainly not full when he arrived at UTEP and Texas A&M. The trick here would be getting Gillispie to leave Texas A&M.
3). Lon Kruger UNLV Head Coach
Lon Kruger is one of the top ten coaches in college basketball hands down. He coached Kansas St. for four years from 1986-1990. He took his team to the NCAA Tournament all four seasons. Then, he moved on to Florida which had gone 7-21 the previous season. After six seasons and a trip to the Final Four with Dan Cross, Andrew DeClerq, and D’meat Hook (Dametri Hill), Kruger left Florida as a national powerhouse to coach Illinois. In four seasons at Illinois, he led his teams to the second round of the NCAA Tournament three times.
After an unsuccessful stint in the NBA, Kruger returned to coaching at UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels are once again among the nation top programs thanks to Kruger. Kruger won 15 games in his first season and improved to 17 wins in his second season. Now in his third season, Kruger has UNLV 10th in the RPI with wins over Nevada, BYU, and Texas Tech. Kruger has never failed to deliver a winning program at four different Universities. He might be the surest thing to guaranteed success that Michigan will find.
4). Mike Montgomery Former Stanford Head Coach
Getting Mike Montgomery to come to Ann Arbor would be a godsend. He is the architect of the 90's Stanford program that went to the NCAA Tournament ten straight seasons. Montgomery recruited with the best by stockpiling NBA talent. Montgomery is the kind of coach that builds a program for the long term. He makes the most out of his talent. He has had plenty of success grooming big-men and guards alike. He has won numerous national coach of the year awards and reached the Final Four in 1998. He probably won't stay out of coaching long so Michigan would have to let him know if they are interested.
5). Todd Lickliter Butler Head Coach
Lickliter has turned Butler into a national power which is certainly no easy task. This season alone, Butler has defeated Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Purdue, and Indiana. None of those five wins were at home. Butler doesn't have nearly the national recruiting reputation as any of those schools so it's clear that Lickliter makes the most of his talent.
In his first season at Butler, Lickliter went 24-5. This year, Lickliter has Butler on track for a 30-win season. This is a guy that can build a basketball program and keep it running even with second-tier talent. He has also proven that his teams can win away from home.
6). John Beilein West Virginia Head Coach
John Beilein has revolutionized the West Virginia basketball program. Before Beilein took over, I can't ever remember WVU having a competitive basketball team. Beilein is one of the best "pure" coaches in college basketball. Whereas some coaches are better recruiters, Beilein's assets are clearly found on the basketball court. He will be able to win with whatever talent he is given. The year before Beilein took over the WVU program, the Mountaineers went 1-15 in the Big East. That win total has increased every year under Beilein culminating in an 11-5 record in ’06.
Under Beilein, West Virginia has had no problem winning on the road. He is 5-2 in the NCAA Tournament with one loss coming by three points and the other coming in overtime. Over the last two and a half seasons, West Virginia is 12-14 on the road in conference play. Those 12 wins on the road in two and a half seasons are just two less road wins than Amaker has had in six seasons—and Beilein inherited a program that was 1-15 in conference the year before. In 2006 alone, West Virginia defeated three teams in the RPI 14 on the road.
7). Jeff Bzdelik Air Force Head Coach
Bzdelik went 24-6 in his first season at Air Force. That is nothing to be ashamed of but Air Force's rather weak schedule definitely had a lot to do with that success. Two years earlier, Air Force went 22-6 under similar circumstances. To be fair, Bzdelik led Air Force to the NCAA Tournament last season despite having one of the worst resumes of any tournament team ever.
So you're probably wondering why I've got Bzdelik so high on my list. Well, this season has been a completely different story. Air Force has seven wins against the RPI 100 (it had four last year) and that number could grow as high as ten before the season is over. Air Force has beaten Stanford and Texas Tech away from home and UNLV at home. For those of you that know the talent discrepancies that the Academies have to deal with, there is no question that Bzdelik's coaching has been fantastic. I'm guessing that if Air Force puts up another season like this one in '08, Bzdelik won't be the coach at Air Force much longer.
8). Rick Majerus Former Utah Head Coach
I suppose I would rather have Mike Montgomery over Rick Majerus but it isn’t by much. Majerus’ health would be a concern considering he has had weight and heart problems. On a strictly coaching basis, I’m not sure Montgomery even has an edge. Majerus made Utah a national power with a bunch of recruits that nobody wanted. He made numerous NCAA Tournament appearances and molded players that weren’t highly sought after out of high school into first round draft picks. He even led Utah to the National Championship game in 1998.
It would be ideal to bring in a coach that could stay for a while. By bringing in someone like Majerus or Montgomery, you’re probably dealing with a coach that may stay long enough to build a program that can run on auto-pilot like the Michigan of old—or may stay for just a few seasons. That is the price Michigan would have to pay to bring in a coach like that. That certainly would be an upgrade over what’s happening now. It’s just hard to build a recruiting presence and consistency within the program when you know there might be another coaching change in the near future.
9). Trent Johnson Stanford Head Coach
Nevada is where it is today because of Trent Johnson. He took over a Nevada program that had gone 7-18 the year before. Johnson was at Nevada for five seasons where he saw his win total climb every year. His tenure reached a crescendo in year five when his Wolfpack went 25-9 and reached the Sweet Sixteen. He didn’t stick around to enjoy the fruits of his labor. He took over at Stanford after Mike Montgomery left for the NBA. Johnson has kept Stanford in post-season play and is working on another NCAA Tournament appearance. The Stanford program is on the verge of blowing up once again as Johnson has an impressive group of underclassmen.
10). Dana Altman Creighton Head Coach
Altman was hired at Creighton in 1994 where he posted a 7-22 record in his first season. Altman proceeded to turn Creighton into an annual NCAA Tournament team. He has led the Blue Jays to the NCAA Tournament in six of the last eight seasons and he is well on his way to doing the same this season. Creighton has won 20+ games every year since 1999. He has also led Creighton to the Missouri Valley Tournament Championship five times since 1999. I don’t think there is a coach on this list that has done more for a basketball program than Altman. He has built a mid-major into somewhat of a national power. There is no question in my mind that he could restore Michigan’s place on the court as well.
11). Blaine Taylor Old Dominion Head Coach
Taylor is one of the more underrated coaches in college basketball. You don’t hear his name much but he has transformed Old Dominion into an annual mid-major power. Taylor took over Old Dominion after the program had just finished a 12-17 campaign the year before. Four seasons later, Old Dominion went 28-6 on its way to the NCAA Tournament. Taylor is on his way to his third straight 20-win season.
Taylor also took the Montana basketball program to new heights before signing on at ODU. In seven seasons at Montana, he went 142-65 with five 20-win seasons and two NCAA Tournament appearances. Taylor coached under Mike Montgomery at both Montana and Stanford.
12). Chris Lowery Southern Illinois Head Coach
Chris Lowery is a disciple of Bruce Weber. Lowery coached under Weber at both S. Illinois and Illinois. Lowery is only 34 but already seems to have the fine art of recruiting down. He has been lauded for his ability to sell his basketball program. In his first season at S. Illinois, Lowery won the Missouri Valley Conference Coach of the Year Award at the age of 32. He is 68-24 at S. Illinois and will likely have the Salukis in the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season.
13). Mike Brey Notre Dame Head Coach
Brey has done for Notre Dame what Beilein has done for West Virginia. Brey did have the foundation that Matt Doherty left but considering Notre Dame hadn't reached the NCAA Tournament in more than ten years, Brey had some work to do. Notre Dame's success wasn't as immediate or as substantial as West Virginia's but Notre Dame can be expected to suit up a pretty competitive team year in and year out. Most importantly, Brey has made Notre Dame an annual threat in the loaded Big East.
Brey had previously coached at Delaware where he compiled a record of 99-52 and two trips to the NCAA Tournament. Brey, like Amaker, was an assistant for Coach K. Although, Brey's success at Delaware and Notre Dame have been exceedingly more impressive than what Amaker has done at Michigan and Seton Hall.
14). Barry Hinson Missouri State Head Coach
Barry Hinson has put Missouri State on the map. The Bears won at Wisconsin in the one of the most impressive victories in college basketball in ’07. Missouri St. was robbed by the Selection Committee last season becoming the highest rated team to ever be left out of the NCAA Tournament. Hinson coached under Bill Self at Oral Roberts before taking over as the head coach at Missouri St.. While Self has become one of the elite coaches in college basketball, Hinson’s stock has been rising as well.
15). Dave Rose BYU Head Coach
The year before Rose took over as head coach at BYU, the Cougars were 9-21. That makes Rose’s first year tally of 20-9 all the more impressive. To prove that wasn’t a fluke, Rose has BYU in even better shape in 2007. The Cougars are in first place in the Mountain West Conference which features Air Force and UNLV. BYU owns victories over both of those schools in ’07. BYU has an RPI of 24 and looks to be headed to the NCAA Tournament at the very least as an at-large selection.
16). Seth Greenberg Virginia Tech Head Coach
The theme of this list involves schools that used to be terrible but aren’t anymore because they hired the right guy. Virginia Tech fits right in. Ask any knowledgeable college basketball fan to name one player that has played basketball for Virginia Tech and you’ll either get “I don’t know any” or “Ace Custis” as your answer. In fact, I have seen a handful of Virginia Tech games this year and I swear that the announcers mentioned “Ace Custis” in every game. It has been a long time since Virginia Tech wasn’t terrible at basketball. Unfortunately for Ace, Greenberg’s success at Virginia Tech likely marks the end of Ace’s stranglehold on all things Virginia Tech basketball.
Greenberg put together strong programs at Long Beach St. and S. Florida before taking on the task of rebuilding Virginia Tech. He has been successful at every location. He currently has Virginia Tech ahead of Duke in the ACC standings. He also has Virginia Tech in line for an at-large selection out of the ACC which was unheard of before this season.
17). Oliver Purnell Clemson Head Coach
Purnell is a veteran coach who is no stranger to turning around basketball programs. He took over a Radford program that had gone 7-22 the previous season. Purnell’s influence sparked a 15-game improvement in just one season. He then took over a dreadful Dayton program that had won just 17 games in the previous four seasons combined. Purnell guided Dayton to two NCAA Tournament appearances and a bevy of wins over NCAA powerhouses. Purnell had Dayton ranked in the top 25 in each of his last two seasons before leaving for Clemson.
Purnell’s most recent accomplishments have been his most impressive. When Purnell took over Clemson in 2003, the Tigers were the worst program in the ACC. Just four years later, Purnell has Clemson in line for its first NCAA Tournament bid since 1997.
18). Scott Sutton Oral Roberts Head Coach
Perhaps no coach on this list has been directly influenced by a more impressive collection of mentors. Sutton is, of course, the son of legendary coach Eddie Sutton. His brother, Sean, is now the head coach at Oklahoma St. Sutton started his coaching career as an assistant at Oral Roberts under Bill Self and later under Barry Hinson.
Sutton has the Oral Roberts steamrolling towards a second consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament and a third straight 20-win season. ORU pulled off a monumental upset winning at Kansas earlier in the year.
19). Mark Turgeon Wichita State Head Coach
Turgeon’s win totals at Wichita St. have climbed every year since 2001. That culminated in one of the best seasons in school history in 2006 which featured a 26-9 record and a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. The Wichita St. basketball program was struggling mightily when Turgeon arrived in 2000. Now it is one of the premier programs in the MVC. The MVC is raided for coaches by the power conferences seemingly ever year. Turgeon will be the answer for a struggling program very soon.
20). Jim Les Bradley Head Coach
In 2003, Les took over a struggling Bradley program that had lost 20 games the previous season. In just four seasons, Les took Bradley from a 20-loss program to an NCAA Tournament at-large selection. In 2006, Bradley had ten victories over the RPI 100 including two shocking upsets in the NCAA Tournament over Kansas and Pittsburgh. Bradley is now one of the premier teams in the up and coming Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley is once again in the RPI 50 in ’07. I’m guessing that one more season like the 2006 campaign will be Les’ last year at Bradley.
21). Mark Fox Nevada Head Coach
In two and a half seasons at Nevada, Mark Fox is 72-15. He has won the WAC Coach of the Year award in each of his first two seasons. By the end of this season, Fox will have 25+ wins in each of his three seasons at Nevada. Fox was an assistant at Nevada under Trent Johnson who has since gone on to Stanford where he has continued that program’s winning ways.
22). Gregg Marshall Winthrop Head Coach
Gregg Marshall has been a sought after coach for a few years now. NC State was interested in Marshall to replace Herb Sendek. There is no questioning Marshall’s accomplishments at Winthrop. His teams have dominated the Big South conference winnings the Big South regular season five times and the Big South Tournament six times in just eight seasons. Winthrop is arguably having its best season yet in 2007 as it narrowly lost to Wisconsin in overtime and came within seven points of beating North Carolina. Winthrop still hasn’t produced the marquee wins that have solidified the programs in the MVC but Marshall seems to have his program on the right track.
The problem with bringing in a coach from a school like Winthrop is not knowing how a coach’s success in a very poor conference translates to a power conference. The vast majority of Winthrop’s games are against some of the worst teams in college basketball. The only way to know is to look at Winthrop’s results against good competition. The number of games that Winthrop has played against good competition is extremely small. If I had to make a guess, I would say Marshall could probably win anywhere. Remember, before Marshall came aboard, Winthrop was just another bad basketball program.
23). Tom Pecora Hofstra Head Coach
Pecora has turned Hofstra into one of the elite mid-major basketball programs. Over the last two and a half seasons, Hofstra is 64-23. Last season, Hofstra was easily one of the top 40 teams in college basketball despite getting hosed by the NCAA Selection Committee. Hofstra defeated George Mason twice in two weeks to end the regular season at 24-6 and 30th in the RPI. George Mason was an at-large selection in the NCAA Tournament where it made a remarkable run to the Final Four.
Pecora coached under Jay Wright for seven seasons at Hofstra before Wright left for Villanova. Wright has made Villanova a household name garnering a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season.
24). Stew Morrill Utah St. Head Coach
Morrill has single-handedly made Utah St. a mid-major behemoth. Heading into the 2007 season, Morrill had a 190-63 record at Utah St. in eight seasons. Under Morrill, Utah St. has been to five NCAA Tournaments and is en route to its 8th straight 20-win season. Over the last seven seasons, Utah St. has a 77.8 winning percentage which is the fourth best rate in the nation over that time. Morrill also had winning programs at Colorado St. and Montana. He coached under Mike Montgomery and Jud Heathcote.
25). Darrin Horn Western Kentucky Head Coach
Michigan fans might remember Horn when he led Western Kentucky over the Wolverines in the first round of the 1995 NCAA Tournament. Horn is the youngest coach on this list (32) but he is hardly short on accomplishments. He coached under Tom Crean at Marquette where he acted as the recruiting coordinator. He was largely responsible for luring Dwyane Wade to Marquette. He was also a member of Marquette’s Final Four coaching staff in 2003.
Horn has increased his win total at Western Kentucky in each of his first three seasons and could very well do the same again this season. His career record at WKU stands at 77-38. He will be one of the top coaching candidates in America very shortly.
26). Larry Reynolds Long Beach State Head Coach
In Larry Reynolds’ first season at Long Beach St., his team was the worst team in the Big West. Five seasons later, Long Beach St. is, far and away, the best team in the conference. Reynolds has his team on the cusp of the RPI 100 (101) and in line for a 20-win season and an NCAA Tournament bid. Reynolds has had tremendous success at the D-II level before coming to LBSU. Here is an article discussing LBSU’s rise under Reynolds.
Quick Fix for the Short Term
There are a number of veteran coaches that could help Michigan in the short term. George Mason’s Jim Larranaga, Davidson’s Bob McKillop, Holy Cross’ Ralph Willard, Cal. St. Fullerton’s Bob Burton and, former Washington State coach, Dick Bennett come to mind. Hiring a younger coach would be the ideal situation.
The Tubby Smith Option
Tubby Smith Kentucky Head Coach
I don’t think Tubby Smith would ever leave Kentucky for Michigan but I do think his time at Kentucky might be limited. Kentucky fans aren’t happy with the success (or lack thereof) Smith has had in Lexington. Smith is a superb recruiter and a more than adequate basketball coach. I don’t think he is the end all but I would not be upset if he somehow ended up in Ann Arbor.
Amaker’s tenure has been marked by a lack of preparedness and a noticeable lack of progression by his players. It is amazing how many times I have spoken to Michigan basketball fans who agree that Dion Harris, Lester Abram, and Courtney Sims were actually better during their freshman year than they are as seniors. I suppose an argument could be made that they were just overrated to begin with but that really makes no difference. Even overrated players improve over four seasons. Harris, Abram, and Sims are hardly the only players that have not progressed under Amaker. In fact, I can’t name a single player that noticeably improved from their freshman year. If that isn’t an indictment on Amaker, then I don’t know what is.
If Michigan is going to get back to its winning ways on the court, it will have to do what so many struggling basketball programs have done—bring in a proven winner. A proven winner is not necessarily the same as a big-name coach. They can be the same—but they don’t have to be. Michigan probably won’t have the luxury of bringing in a big name and that might not be such a bad thing. It’s not hard to find a coach that has won consistently at multiple institutions. Some of the best coaches in America are coaches that nobody had even heard of five years ago.
Quick turnarounds are not as hard as Amaker has made them out to be. It certainly shouldn’t take six years. It took all of six months before Bob Huggins transformed Kansas St. from an awful program into a serious candidate for the NCAA Tournament. Huggins might not be your “cup of tea” since he has had issues in the past but there are plenty of coaches like Huggins. Michigan took a chance in hiring Amaker because he hadn’t really accomplished anything tangible in his coaching career. He “supposedly” had the pedigree but whether he could lead a college basketball program to great things was not known. Amaker has been a coach for ten seasons. Look at any other coaching resume of ten seasons and you’ll know immediately if you’re dealing with a good coach or an average coach. It doesn’t take good coaches ten seasons to find their niche.
I cited a few statistics last week in a post that I wrote regarding Amaker’s tenure. Most of those statistics featured won/loss records on the road and records against other Big Ten teams. What I didn’t get into was margin of defeat. While Michigan is 5-36 on the road against teams that aren’t Penn St. and Northwestern, the average margin of defeat in those 36 losses is 16 points. Since Amaker took over in 2002, Michigan’s average margin of defeat on the road is actually worse than Northwestern’s. Since Northwestern doesn’t have the luxury of playing itself twice per season, its road schedule has actually been more difficult than Michigan’s. It’s one thing for a team to lose too often but it’s a completely different thing to lose too often by a gazillion points. My point here is that Michigan isn’t even close to breaking through. It’s not like Amaker has been stung by fluke losses. For six seasons he has had decent players but nothing has changed since year one. His teams either beat very bad teams or lose by a lot to good teams. Almost any coach could accomplish the same thing.
Michigan needs to hire a coach that can stamp an identity onto the program. That coach needs to be a coach that has actually led a program beyond expectations in the past. That coach needs to be a coach that has helped decent players become great players. The next coach can’t be a coach with “potential”. There are far too many coaches available that have proven the ability to do all of the things that Amaker was supposed to be able to do. I understand Bill Martin wants to reward Amaker for keeping the program out of trouble and for taking a huge mess without complaining. Unfortunately for Martin and Amaker, the fanbase has much higher expectations than a nice basketball coach leading an underachieving program.
Here is a list of candidates that Michigan should seriously consider if it decides to move beyond the Amaker era. I only included coaches that might actually want to coach at Michigan. I can’t see Jamie Dixon leaving Pittsburgh or Jay Wright leaving Villanova. Those are basketball schools that are legitimate championship contenders. I’m not saying that Michigan is a better job than every school on this list. I just think that these coaches would at least listen to Michigan if it called. There really is no harm in “shooting for the stars” but I chose not to waste everyone’s time with that. I also did not include coaches that just started at a new school like Anthony Grant (VCU), Bobby Gonzalez (Seton Hall), and Greg McDermott (Iowa St.) among others. Those coaches could be ready to move on to bigger and better places (whether Michigan is bigger and better remains to be seen) in a few years.
Michigan Basketball Coaching Candidates
1). Tom Crean Marquette Head Coach
Whether you like Tom Izzo or not, there is no question that he is one of the top coaches in college basketball. Crean is probably the closest thing there is to Izzo. In fact, Crean's time at Marquette is remarkably similar to Izzo's time at MSU. Both hovered around .500 in their first two seasons before seeing their programs blow up. Crean coached under Izzo at MSU. He has put Marquette back on the map. He was an excellent recruiter at MSU and continues to be an excellent recruiter at Marquette. Crean has won at least 19 games in each of the last six seasons including a trip to the Final Four in 2003. Marquette handled its move to the Big East brilliantly which is saying a lot considering how much better the Big East is than Marquette's former conference--Conference USA.
Crean also has a Michigan connection as he is Jim Harbaugh's brother-in-law. Getting Crean to leave Marquette may be a tough sell but it is certainly worth a shot. I don't think there is any question that Crean would return Michigan to its glory days.
2). Billy Gillispie Texas A&M Head Coach
I don't think there is a more impressive coach in college basketball right now than Billy Gillispie. Texas A&M hadn't had a good college basketball program in my lifetime until Gillispie came aboard. He is on his way to a third 20-win season in three years at A&M. The year before Gillispie arrived, A&M was 7-21. In Gillispie's first year, he went 21-10. He followed that with a 22-9 record and a trip to the NCAA Tournament. In his third season, he has A&M firmly in the top ten and in line for a two or three seed in the tournament.
Gillispie is no one-trick pony either. He took over the UTEP program in 2002. In his first season, UTEP went 6-24. In his second season, he took UTEP to the NCAA Tournament with a 24-8 record. This is the kind of coach that Michigan fans have been clamoring for. He preaches defense without yielding disorganization on offense. He clearly makes the most out of his talent as the cupboards were certainly not full when he arrived at UTEP and Texas A&M. The trick here would be getting Gillispie to leave Texas A&M.
3). Lon Kruger UNLV Head Coach
Lon Kruger is one of the top ten coaches in college basketball hands down. He coached Kansas St. for four years from 1986-1990. He took his team to the NCAA Tournament all four seasons. Then, he moved on to Florida which had gone 7-21 the previous season. After six seasons and a trip to the Final Four with Dan Cross, Andrew DeClerq, and D’meat Hook (Dametri Hill), Kruger left Florida as a national powerhouse to coach Illinois. In four seasons at Illinois, he led his teams to the second round of the NCAA Tournament three times.
After an unsuccessful stint in the NBA, Kruger returned to coaching at UNLV. The Runnin’ Rebels are once again among the nation top programs thanks to Kruger. Kruger won 15 games in his first season and improved to 17 wins in his second season. Now in his third season, Kruger has UNLV 10th in the RPI with wins over Nevada, BYU, and Texas Tech. Kruger has never failed to deliver a winning program at four different Universities. He might be the surest thing to guaranteed success that Michigan will find.
4). Mike Montgomery Former Stanford Head Coach
Getting Mike Montgomery to come to Ann Arbor would be a godsend. He is the architect of the 90's Stanford program that went to the NCAA Tournament ten straight seasons. Montgomery recruited with the best by stockpiling NBA talent. Montgomery is the kind of coach that builds a program for the long term. He makes the most out of his talent. He has had plenty of success grooming big-men and guards alike. He has won numerous national coach of the year awards and reached the Final Four in 1998. He probably won't stay out of coaching long so Michigan would have to let him know if they are interested.
5). Todd Lickliter Butler Head Coach
Lickliter has turned Butler into a national power which is certainly no easy task. This season alone, Butler has defeated Notre Dame, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Purdue, and Indiana. None of those five wins were at home. Butler doesn't have nearly the national recruiting reputation as any of those schools so it's clear that Lickliter makes the most of his talent.
In his first season at Butler, Lickliter went 24-5. This year, Lickliter has Butler on track for a 30-win season. This is a guy that can build a basketball program and keep it running even with second-tier talent. He has also proven that his teams can win away from home.
6). John Beilein West Virginia Head Coach
John Beilein has revolutionized the West Virginia basketball program. Before Beilein took over, I can't ever remember WVU having a competitive basketball team. Beilein is one of the best "pure" coaches in college basketball. Whereas some coaches are better recruiters, Beilein's assets are clearly found on the basketball court. He will be able to win with whatever talent he is given. The year before Beilein took over the WVU program, the Mountaineers went 1-15 in the Big East. That win total has increased every year under Beilein culminating in an 11-5 record in ’06.
Under Beilein, West Virginia has had no problem winning on the road. He is 5-2 in the NCAA Tournament with one loss coming by three points and the other coming in overtime. Over the last two and a half seasons, West Virginia is 12-14 on the road in conference play. Those 12 wins on the road in two and a half seasons are just two less road wins than Amaker has had in six seasons—and Beilein inherited a program that was 1-15 in conference the year before. In 2006 alone, West Virginia defeated three teams in the RPI 14 on the road.
7). Jeff Bzdelik Air Force Head Coach
Bzdelik went 24-6 in his first season at Air Force. That is nothing to be ashamed of but Air Force's rather weak schedule definitely had a lot to do with that success. Two years earlier, Air Force went 22-6 under similar circumstances. To be fair, Bzdelik led Air Force to the NCAA Tournament last season despite having one of the worst resumes of any tournament team ever.
So you're probably wondering why I've got Bzdelik so high on my list. Well, this season has been a completely different story. Air Force has seven wins against the RPI 100 (it had four last year) and that number could grow as high as ten before the season is over. Air Force has beaten Stanford and Texas Tech away from home and UNLV at home. For those of you that know the talent discrepancies that the Academies have to deal with, there is no question that Bzdelik's coaching has been fantastic. I'm guessing that if Air Force puts up another season like this one in '08, Bzdelik won't be the coach at Air Force much longer.
8). Rick Majerus Former Utah Head Coach
I suppose I would rather have Mike Montgomery over Rick Majerus but it isn’t by much. Majerus’ health would be a concern considering he has had weight and heart problems. On a strictly coaching basis, I’m not sure Montgomery even has an edge. Majerus made Utah a national power with a bunch of recruits that nobody wanted. He made numerous NCAA Tournament appearances and molded players that weren’t highly sought after out of high school into first round draft picks. He even led Utah to the National Championship game in 1998.
It would be ideal to bring in a coach that could stay for a while. By bringing in someone like Majerus or Montgomery, you’re probably dealing with a coach that may stay long enough to build a program that can run on auto-pilot like the Michigan of old—or may stay for just a few seasons. That is the price Michigan would have to pay to bring in a coach like that. That certainly would be an upgrade over what’s happening now. It’s just hard to build a recruiting presence and consistency within the program when you know there might be another coaching change in the near future.
9). Trent Johnson Stanford Head Coach
Nevada is where it is today because of Trent Johnson. He took over a Nevada program that had gone 7-18 the year before. Johnson was at Nevada for five seasons where he saw his win total climb every year. His tenure reached a crescendo in year five when his Wolfpack went 25-9 and reached the Sweet Sixteen. He didn’t stick around to enjoy the fruits of his labor. He took over at Stanford after Mike Montgomery left for the NBA. Johnson has kept Stanford in post-season play and is working on another NCAA Tournament appearance. The Stanford program is on the verge of blowing up once again as Johnson has an impressive group of underclassmen.
10). Dana Altman Creighton Head Coach
Altman was hired at Creighton in 1994 where he posted a 7-22 record in his first season. Altman proceeded to turn Creighton into an annual NCAA Tournament team. He has led the Blue Jays to the NCAA Tournament in six of the last eight seasons and he is well on his way to doing the same this season. Creighton has won 20+ games every year since 1999. He has also led Creighton to the Missouri Valley Tournament Championship five times since 1999. I don’t think there is a coach on this list that has done more for a basketball program than Altman. He has built a mid-major into somewhat of a national power. There is no question in my mind that he could restore Michigan’s place on the court as well.
11). Blaine Taylor Old Dominion Head Coach
Taylor is one of the more underrated coaches in college basketball. You don’t hear his name much but he has transformed Old Dominion into an annual mid-major power. Taylor took over Old Dominion after the program had just finished a 12-17 campaign the year before. Four seasons later, Old Dominion went 28-6 on its way to the NCAA Tournament. Taylor is on his way to his third straight 20-win season.
Taylor also took the Montana basketball program to new heights before signing on at ODU. In seven seasons at Montana, he went 142-65 with five 20-win seasons and two NCAA Tournament appearances. Taylor coached under Mike Montgomery at both Montana and Stanford.
12). Chris Lowery Southern Illinois Head Coach
Chris Lowery is a disciple of Bruce Weber. Lowery coached under Weber at both S. Illinois and Illinois. Lowery is only 34 but already seems to have the fine art of recruiting down. He has been lauded for his ability to sell his basketball program. In his first season at S. Illinois, Lowery won the Missouri Valley Conference Coach of the Year Award at the age of 32. He is 68-24 at S. Illinois and will likely have the Salukis in the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season.
13). Mike Brey Notre Dame Head Coach
Brey has done for Notre Dame what Beilein has done for West Virginia. Brey did have the foundation that Matt Doherty left but considering Notre Dame hadn't reached the NCAA Tournament in more than ten years, Brey had some work to do. Notre Dame's success wasn't as immediate or as substantial as West Virginia's but Notre Dame can be expected to suit up a pretty competitive team year in and year out. Most importantly, Brey has made Notre Dame an annual threat in the loaded Big East.
Brey had previously coached at Delaware where he compiled a record of 99-52 and two trips to the NCAA Tournament. Brey, like Amaker, was an assistant for Coach K. Although, Brey's success at Delaware and Notre Dame have been exceedingly more impressive than what Amaker has done at Michigan and Seton Hall.
14). Barry Hinson Missouri State Head Coach
Barry Hinson has put Missouri State on the map. The Bears won at Wisconsin in the one of the most impressive victories in college basketball in ’07. Missouri St. was robbed by the Selection Committee last season becoming the highest rated team to ever be left out of the NCAA Tournament. Hinson coached under Bill Self at Oral Roberts before taking over as the head coach at Missouri St.. While Self has become one of the elite coaches in college basketball, Hinson’s stock has been rising as well.
15). Dave Rose BYU Head Coach
The year before Rose took over as head coach at BYU, the Cougars were 9-21. That makes Rose’s first year tally of 20-9 all the more impressive. To prove that wasn’t a fluke, Rose has BYU in even better shape in 2007. The Cougars are in first place in the Mountain West Conference which features Air Force and UNLV. BYU owns victories over both of those schools in ’07. BYU has an RPI of 24 and looks to be headed to the NCAA Tournament at the very least as an at-large selection.
16). Seth Greenberg Virginia Tech Head Coach
The theme of this list involves schools that used to be terrible but aren’t anymore because they hired the right guy. Virginia Tech fits right in. Ask any knowledgeable college basketball fan to name one player that has played basketball for Virginia Tech and you’ll either get “I don’t know any” or “Ace Custis” as your answer. In fact, I have seen a handful of Virginia Tech games this year and I swear that the announcers mentioned “Ace Custis” in every game. It has been a long time since Virginia Tech wasn’t terrible at basketball. Unfortunately for Ace, Greenberg’s success at Virginia Tech likely marks the end of Ace’s stranglehold on all things Virginia Tech basketball.
Greenberg put together strong programs at Long Beach St. and S. Florida before taking on the task of rebuilding Virginia Tech. He has been successful at every location. He currently has Virginia Tech ahead of Duke in the ACC standings. He also has Virginia Tech in line for an at-large selection out of the ACC which was unheard of before this season.
17). Oliver Purnell Clemson Head Coach
Purnell is a veteran coach who is no stranger to turning around basketball programs. He took over a Radford program that had gone 7-22 the previous season. Purnell’s influence sparked a 15-game improvement in just one season. He then took over a dreadful Dayton program that had won just 17 games in the previous four seasons combined. Purnell guided Dayton to two NCAA Tournament appearances and a bevy of wins over NCAA powerhouses. Purnell had Dayton ranked in the top 25 in each of his last two seasons before leaving for Clemson.
Purnell’s most recent accomplishments have been his most impressive. When Purnell took over Clemson in 2003, the Tigers were the worst program in the ACC. Just four years later, Purnell has Clemson in line for its first NCAA Tournament bid since 1997.
18). Scott Sutton Oral Roberts Head Coach
Perhaps no coach on this list has been directly influenced by a more impressive collection of mentors. Sutton is, of course, the son of legendary coach Eddie Sutton. His brother, Sean, is now the head coach at Oklahoma St. Sutton started his coaching career as an assistant at Oral Roberts under Bill Self and later under Barry Hinson.
Sutton has the Oral Roberts steamrolling towards a second consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament and a third straight 20-win season. ORU pulled off a monumental upset winning at Kansas earlier in the year.
19). Mark Turgeon Wichita State Head Coach
Turgeon’s win totals at Wichita St. have climbed every year since 2001. That culminated in one of the best seasons in school history in 2006 which featured a 26-9 record and a trip to the Sweet Sixteen. The Wichita St. basketball program was struggling mightily when Turgeon arrived in 2000. Now it is one of the premier programs in the MVC. The MVC is raided for coaches by the power conferences seemingly ever year. Turgeon will be the answer for a struggling program very soon.
20). Jim Les Bradley Head Coach
In 2003, Les took over a struggling Bradley program that had lost 20 games the previous season. In just four seasons, Les took Bradley from a 20-loss program to an NCAA Tournament at-large selection. In 2006, Bradley had ten victories over the RPI 100 including two shocking upsets in the NCAA Tournament over Kansas and Pittsburgh. Bradley is now one of the premier teams in the up and coming Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley is once again in the RPI 50 in ’07. I’m guessing that one more season like the 2006 campaign will be Les’ last year at Bradley.
21). Mark Fox Nevada Head Coach
In two and a half seasons at Nevada, Mark Fox is 72-15. He has won the WAC Coach of the Year award in each of his first two seasons. By the end of this season, Fox will have 25+ wins in each of his three seasons at Nevada. Fox was an assistant at Nevada under Trent Johnson who has since gone on to Stanford where he has continued that program’s winning ways.
22). Gregg Marshall Winthrop Head Coach
Gregg Marshall has been a sought after coach for a few years now. NC State was interested in Marshall to replace Herb Sendek. There is no questioning Marshall’s accomplishments at Winthrop. His teams have dominated the Big South conference winnings the Big South regular season five times and the Big South Tournament six times in just eight seasons. Winthrop is arguably having its best season yet in 2007 as it narrowly lost to Wisconsin in overtime and came within seven points of beating North Carolina. Winthrop still hasn’t produced the marquee wins that have solidified the programs in the MVC but Marshall seems to have his program on the right track.
The problem with bringing in a coach from a school like Winthrop is not knowing how a coach’s success in a very poor conference translates to a power conference. The vast majority of Winthrop’s games are against some of the worst teams in college basketball. The only way to know is to look at Winthrop’s results against good competition. The number of games that Winthrop has played against good competition is extremely small. If I had to make a guess, I would say Marshall could probably win anywhere. Remember, before Marshall came aboard, Winthrop was just another bad basketball program.
23). Tom Pecora Hofstra Head Coach
Pecora has turned Hofstra into one of the elite mid-major basketball programs. Over the last two and a half seasons, Hofstra is 64-23. Last season, Hofstra was easily one of the top 40 teams in college basketball despite getting hosed by the NCAA Selection Committee. Hofstra defeated George Mason twice in two weeks to end the regular season at 24-6 and 30th in the RPI. George Mason was an at-large selection in the NCAA Tournament where it made a remarkable run to the Final Four.
Pecora coached under Jay Wright for seven seasons at Hofstra before Wright left for Villanova. Wright has made Villanova a household name garnering a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament last season.
24). Stew Morrill Utah St. Head Coach
Morrill has single-handedly made Utah St. a mid-major behemoth. Heading into the 2007 season, Morrill had a 190-63 record at Utah St. in eight seasons. Under Morrill, Utah St. has been to five NCAA Tournaments and is en route to its 8th straight 20-win season. Over the last seven seasons, Utah St. has a 77.8 winning percentage which is the fourth best rate in the nation over that time. Morrill also had winning programs at Colorado St. and Montana. He coached under Mike Montgomery and Jud Heathcote.
25). Darrin Horn Western Kentucky Head Coach
Michigan fans might remember Horn when he led Western Kentucky over the Wolverines in the first round of the 1995 NCAA Tournament. Horn is the youngest coach on this list (32) but he is hardly short on accomplishments. He coached under Tom Crean at Marquette where he acted as the recruiting coordinator. He was largely responsible for luring Dwyane Wade to Marquette. He was also a member of Marquette’s Final Four coaching staff in 2003.
Horn has increased his win total at Western Kentucky in each of his first three seasons and could very well do the same again this season. His career record at WKU stands at 77-38. He will be one of the top coaching candidates in America very shortly.
26). Larry Reynolds Long Beach State Head Coach
In Larry Reynolds’ first season at Long Beach St., his team was the worst team in the Big West. Five seasons later, Long Beach St. is, far and away, the best team in the conference. Reynolds has his team on the cusp of the RPI 100 (101) and in line for a 20-win season and an NCAA Tournament bid. Reynolds has had tremendous success at the D-II level before coming to LBSU. Here is an article discussing LBSU’s rise under Reynolds.
Quick Fix for the Short Term
There are a number of veteran coaches that could help Michigan in the short term. George Mason’s Jim Larranaga, Davidson’s Bob McKillop, Holy Cross’ Ralph Willard, Cal. St. Fullerton’s Bob Burton and, former Washington State coach, Dick Bennett come to mind. Hiring a younger coach would be the ideal situation.
The Tubby Smith Option
Tubby Smith Kentucky Head Coach
I don’t think Tubby Smith would ever leave Kentucky for Michigan but I do think his time at Kentucky might be limited. Kentucky fans aren’t happy with the success (or lack thereof) Smith has had in Lexington. Smith is a superb recruiter and a more than adequate basketball coach. I don’t think he is the end all but I would not be upset if he somehow ended up in Ann Arbor.
Monday, February 05, 2007
NCAA Tournament Projections (Week of February 4)
Another week like this one and we won’t even need to wait until March to know the NCAA Tournament field. As I see things now, there are no more than 70 teams fighting for 65 spots. I regretfully left out BYU and Kansas St. this week. Both have favorable schedules the rest of the way. I think some of the teams that I have in the tournament right now will knock each other out opening up a path for BYU and Kansas St. to make it. Both are short on impressive wins but their RPIs are pretty good and they will both certainly finish with gaudy records.
A team to keep an eye on over the next few weeks is Tennessee. No team in college basketball has a harder remaining schedule. It would not surprise me if the Vols ended up 7-9 in the SEC. With victories over Memphis, Oklahoma St., and Texas, it would be hard to keep them out. I’m just not sure that a team with a 7-9 conference record can get in.
My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
Changes from last week:
In: Virginia, Alabama, and Illinois
Out: Drexel, Northern Iowa, and Georgia Tech
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large Maryland
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Alabama
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Michigan St.
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.
The last five teams in the tourney right now:
1. Georgia
RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 28
Quality wins: Gonzaga (neutral), Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, andKentucky
Bad losses: none
If Georgia wins the games it’s supposed to win and loses the games it’s supposed to lose, it’ll finish the season 17-11 (9-7). I don’t think that’ll be enough. Georgia will have to upset Florida, Kentucky or Tennessee to get to 18-10. Anything short of that may send Georgia to the NIT.
2. Maryland
RPI rating: 30
Pomeroy rating: 23
Quality wins: Michigan St. (neutral), @ Illinois, Clemson, and Georgia Tech
Bad losses: Miami (FL)
I’m starting to think that two of the following teams will not make the tournament: Maryland, Clemson, Florida St., Virginia, and Virginia Tech. Right now, I think Maryland and Clemson will be the odd teams out. The Terps are 3-5 in the ACC with a brutal remaining schedule. I don’t see Maryland getting to 8-8 in the ACC. Should that happen, though, victories over MSU and Illinois would bode well in a straight-up comparison between those schools.
3. Illinois
RPI rating: 44
Pomeroy rating: 37
Quality wins: Bradley (neutral), Michigan St., and Indiana
Bad losses: none
Illinois has quietly become the fourth team out of the Big Ten. Outside of Alabama, Illinois probably has the least impressive resume of all bubble teams but the Illini survived the early Big Ten schedule to set up a soft final six games. Illinois could be playing Iowa in the season finale for its tenth conference win.
4. Michigan St.
RPI rating: 38
Pomeroy rating: 17
Quality wins: Texas (neutral), Bradley, and BYU.
Bad losses: @ Iowa
I’m convinced that Michigan St. is one of the top 40 teams in the country. Sparty’s only bad loss was at an improving Iowa team without the services of Raymar Morgan. MSU’s problem is the killer remaining schedule. Sparty has to play Wisconsin (2), Indiana, Michigan (2), Purdue and Iowa. A home win over Michigan is a lock of locks but the rest are going to be difficult. I think State has to win five of those games to guarantee a spot. That will be a tall order.
5. Alabama
RPI rating: 26
Pomeroy rating: 59
Quality wins: Xavier (neutral) and Georgia
Bad losses: @ Auburn
Alabama has two wins in the RPI 80 and zero wins in the RPI 40. The Tide probably has the least impressive resume of all bubble teams. Alabama has been ranked virtually the whole season but I question whether or not the pollsters have been paying attention. I can’t think of a compelling reason why ‘Bama should be ranked. Fortunately for Alabama, it has the easiest remaining schedule of any major college basketball team. The Tide get to play Mississippi (2), Mississippi St. (2), and Auburn. If ‘Bama can go 5-0 in those games it’ll be guaranteed nine wins in the conference. I’m not sure that will get them in so a win over Florida, Tennessee, or Kentucky will likely be a necessity.
On the outside looking in:
1. Kansas St.
RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 50
Quality wins: USC (neutral) and @ Texas
Bad losses: @ New Mexico, @ Colorado St., and @ California
Kansas St.’s resume is very poor. It has zero wins in the RPI 45 and just two wins in the RPI 85. The Wildcats have beaten up on the Big XII’s weaklings to get to 6-2 in the conference. Ten or eleven wins in the conference is definitely a possibility considering KSU still has some bad teams left on the schedule. There is precedent for a team to get left out of the NCAA Tournament with 10 conference wins. KSU could be another. Eleven wins would be a lock. I think it’s very possible. I can’t say that KSU will have proven it deserves a spot in the Tournament but I’m predicting it will make it.
2. BYU
RPI rating: 29
Pomeroy rating: 51
Quality wins: Air Force and UNLV
Bad losses: @ Boise St., @ Lamar, and @ Colorado St.
No team had a bigger week than BYU. In fact, no team has had a more important victory all season than BYU’s romp of UNLV. Up until that victory, BYU’s resume was short on quality wins. Only Air Force and UNLV remained on the schedule in terms of games that could increase BYU’s profile. I think BYU will receive an at-large bid assuming it continues to win against the weaker teams in its conference.
3. Syracuse
RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 44
Quality wins: @ Marquette, Hofstra, and Villanova
Bad losses: @ St. John’s
Syracuse is in a similar position as Kansas St. The ‘Cuse have an extremely unimpressive resume but a weak Big East schedule gives them a good shot at 10 wins in the conference. I haven’t seen enough of Syracuse to know whether they are a top 40 team but I don’t believe their resume is anywhere near the top 40 right now.
4. Purdue
RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 45
Quality wins: Virginia, Michigan, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Minnesota
I think the Big Ten will get five teams. Out of Purdue, MSU, and Illinois, I think two will make it. Purdue has the worst RPI of the two. Purdue will also have a very difficult time going better than 8-8 in the conference. As it stands now, I think Purdue is the odd team out.
5. Georgia Tech
RPI rating: 59
Pomeroy rating: 19
Quality wins: Purdue (neutral), Memphis (neutral), Georgia, Duke, Florida St., and Clemson
Bad losses: @ Miami (FL) and @ Wake Forest
No bubble team has a better collection of wins. Unfortunately, Georgia Tech has virtually no chance in finishing .500 in the ACC. Unless the Yellow Jackets can pull of an upset or two along the way, it will be the favorite to win the NIT.
6. Louisville
7. Providence
8. Hofstra
9. Drexel
10. N. Iowa
11. Bradley
Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament
#29 BYU
#41 Kansas St.
#47 Purdue
#49 Bradley
#51 Providence
#55 Drexel
#56 Northern Iowa
#57 Michigan
#58 Syracuse
#59 Georgia Tech
#60 Wichita St.
#61 Louisville
#62 California
#63 Old Dominion
#64 Davidson
#65 Mississippi
Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections
#54 Texas
#50 Vanderbilt
#46 Georgia
#45 USC
#44 Illinois
#43 Notre Dame
#40 West Virginia
#39 Virginia
#38 Michigan St.
#37 Georgetown
#36 Virginia Tech
#35 Stanford
#34 Arkansas
#33 Texas Tech
#32 Washington St.
#31 Missouri St.
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (8)
UNC
Duke
BC
Maryland
Virginia
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU
Big East (6)
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
SEC (7)
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Alabama
Pac-10 (6)
UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford
Big XII (5)
Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas
Big Ten (5)
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
MSU
Illinois
MVC (3)
Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton
MWC (2)
Air Force
UNLV
A team to keep an eye on over the next few weeks is Tennessee. No team in college basketball has a harder remaining schedule. It would not surprise me if the Vols ended up 7-9 in the SEC. With victories over Memphis, Oklahoma St., and Texas, it would be hard to keep them out. I’m just not sure that a team with a 7-9 conference record can get in.
My tournament projections are based on putting in the teams that deserve to be in the tournament regardless of conference affiliation and/or mid-major/major status. The Selection Committee did a horrific job last season so I will no longer try to guess what they are going to do. If I picked teams based on which teams I think the Committee will put in, I would have to intentionally pick teams that I don’t feel deserve a bid since that seems to be what the Committee does. Here is how I view the field right now (in no particular order):
Changes from last week:
In: Virginia, Alabama, and Illinois
Out: Drexel, Northern Iowa, and Georgia Tech
1 ACC North Carolina
2 SEC Florida
3 Big East Pittsburgh
4 Big 12 Kansas
5 Big Ten Wisconsin
6 Pac-10 UCLA
7 MVC S. Illinois
8 MWC Air Force
9 WAC Nevada
10 A-10 Xavier
11 Colonial VCU
12 MAC Toledo
13 WCC Gonzaga
14 C-USA Memphis
15 Sun Belt Western Kentucky
16 Horizon Butler
17 MAAC Marist
18 Big Sky Weber St.
19 MCC Oral Roberts
20 Big West Long Beach St.
21 OVC Austin Peay
22 Ivy Penn
23 Southern Appalachian St.
24 Patriot Holy Cross
25 Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi
26 Northeast Central Connecticut St.
27 AEC Vermont
28 Big South Winthrop
29 Atl. Sun Belmont
30 SWAC Jackson St.
31 MEAC Delaware St.
32 At-Large Duke
33 At-Large Virginia
34 At-Large Clemson
35 At-Large Virginia Tech
36 At-Large Florida St.
37 At-Large Boston College
38 At-Large Maryland
39 At-Large Tennessee
40 At-Large Kentucky
41 At-Large Arkansas
42 At-Large Georgia
43 At-Large Alabama
44 At-Large Villanova
45 At-Large Marquette
46 At-Large West Virginia
47 At-Large Illinois
48 At-Large Georgetown
49 At-Large Notre Dame
50 At-Large Oklahoma St.
51 At-Large Texas
52 At-Large Texas A&M
53 At-Large Texas Tech
54 At-Large Ohio St.
55 At-Large Indiana
56 At-Large Michigan St.
57 At-Large Arizona
58 At-Large Oregon
59 At-Large Washington St.
60 At-Large USC
61 At-Large UNLV
62 At-Large Vanderbilt
63 At-Large Missouri St.
64 At-Large Stanford
65 At-Large Creighton
This projected field assumes that there are no upsets in the conference tournaments. There could be five or more teams that make the tournament who wouldn't have otherwise made it just from the conference tournaments alone. That would push five of my "projected" teams out of the field. Come conference tournament time, the last two or three teams that I have in the tourney will probably get pushed out by upsets, if not more.
The last five teams in the tourney right now:
1. Georgia
RPI rating: 46
Pomeroy rating: 28
Quality wins: Gonzaga (neutral), Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, andKentucky
Bad losses: none
If Georgia wins the games it’s supposed to win and loses the games it’s supposed to lose, it’ll finish the season 17-11 (9-7). I don’t think that’ll be enough. Georgia will have to upset Florida, Kentucky or Tennessee to get to 18-10. Anything short of that may send Georgia to the NIT.
2. Maryland
RPI rating: 30
Pomeroy rating: 23
Quality wins: Michigan St. (neutral), @ Illinois, Clemson, and Georgia Tech
Bad losses: Miami (FL)
I’m starting to think that two of the following teams will not make the tournament: Maryland, Clemson, Florida St., Virginia, and Virginia Tech. Right now, I think Maryland and Clemson will be the odd teams out. The Terps are 3-5 in the ACC with a brutal remaining schedule. I don’t see Maryland getting to 8-8 in the ACC. Should that happen, though, victories over MSU and Illinois would bode well in a straight-up comparison between those schools.
3. Illinois
RPI rating: 44
Pomeroy rating: 37
Quality wins: Bradley (neutral), Michigan St., and Indiana
Bad losses: none
Illinois has quietly become the fourth team out of the Big Ten. Outside of Alabama, Illinois probably has the least impressive resume of all bubble teams but the Illini survived the early Big Ten schedule to set up a soft final six games. Illinois could be playing Iowa in the season finale for its tenth conference win.
4. Michigan St.
RPI rating: 38
Pomeroy rating: 17
Quality wins: Texas (neutral), Bradley, and BYU.
Bad losses: @ Iowa
I’m convinced that Michigan St. is one of the top 40 teams in the country. Sparty’s only bad loss was at an improving Iowa team without the services of Raymar Morgan. MSU’s problem is the killer remaining schedule. Sparty has to play Wisconsin (2), Indiana, Michigan (2), Purdue and Iowa. A home win over Michigan is a lock of locks but the rest are going to be difficult. I think State has to win five of those games to guarantee a spot. That will be a tall order.
5. Alabama
RPI rating: 26
Pomeroy rating: 59
Quality wins: Xavier (neutral) and Georgia
Bad losses: @ Auburn
Alabama has two wins in the RPI 80 and zero wins in the RPI 40. The Tide probably has the least impressive resume of all bubble teams. Alabama has been ranked virtually the whole season but I question whether or not the pollsters have been paying attention. I can’t think of a compelling reason why ‘Bama should be ranked. Fortunately for Alabama, it has the easiest remaining schedule of any major college basketball team. The Tide get to play Mississippi (2), Mississippi St. (2), and Auburn. If ‘Bama can go 5-0 in those games it’ll be guaranteed nine wins in the conference. I’m not sure that will get them in so a win over Florida, Tennessee, or Kentucky will likely be a necessity.
On the outside looking in:
1. Kansas St.
RPI rating: 41
Pomeroy rating: 50
Quality wins: USC (neutral) and @ Texas
Bad losses: @ New Mexico, @ Colorado St., and @ California
Kansas St.’s resume is very poor. It has zero wins in the RPI 45 and just two wins in the RPI 85. The Wildcats have beaten up on the Big XII’s weaklings to get to 6-2 in the conference. Ten or eleven wins in the conference is definitely a possibility considering KSU still has some bad teams left on the schedule. There is precedent for a team to get left out of the NCAA Tournament with 10 conference wins. KSU could be another. Eleven wins would be a lock. I think it’s very possible. I can’t say that KSU will have proven it deserves a spot in the Tournament but I’m predicting it will make it.
2. BYU
RPI rating: 29
Pomeroy rating: 51
Quality wins: Air Force and UNLV
Bad losses: @ Boise St., @ Lamar, and @ Colorado St.
No team had a bigger week than BYU. In fact, no team has had a more important victory all season than BYU’s romp of UNLV. Up until that victory, BYU’s resume was short on quality wins. Only Air Force and UNLV remained on the schedule in terms of games that could increase BYU’s profile. I think BYU will receive an at-large bid assuming it continues to win against the weaker teams in its conference.
3. Syracuse
RPI rating: 58
Pomeroy rating: 44
Quality wins: @ Marquette, Hofstra, and Villanova
Bad losses: @ St. John’s
Syracuse is in a similar position as Kansas St. The ‘Cuse have an extremely unimpressive resume but a weak Big East schedule gives them a good shot at 10 wins in the conference. I haven’t seen enough of Syracuse to know whether they are a top 40 team but I don’t believe their resume is anywhere near the top 40 right now.
4. Purdue
RPI rating: 47
Pomeroy rating: 45
Quality wins: Virginia, Michigan, and Illinois
Bad losses: @ Minnesota
I think the Big Ten will get five teams. Out of Purdue, MSU, and Illinois, I think two will make it. Purdue has the worst RPI of the two. Purdue will also have a very difficult time going better than 8-8 in the conference. As it stands now, I think Purdue is the odd team out.
5. Georgia Tech
RPI rating: 59
Pomeroy rating: 19
Quality wins: Purdue (neutral), Memphis (neutral), Georgia, Duke, Florida St., and Clemson
Bad losses: @ Miami (FL) and @ Wake Forest
No bubble team has a better collection of wins. Unfortunately, Georgia Tech has virtually no chance in finishing .500 in the ACC. Unless the Yellow Jackets can pull of an upset or two along the way, it will be the favorite to win the NIT.
6. Louisville
7. Providence
8. Hofstra
9. Drexel
10. N. Iowa
11. Bradley
Highest rated RPI teams projected “out” of the tournament
#29 BYU
#41 Kansas St.
#47 Purdue
#49 Bradley
#51 Providence
#55 Drexel
#56 Northern Iowa
#57 Michigan
#58 Syracuse
#59 Georgia Tech
#60 Wichita St.
#61 Louisville
#62 California
#63 Old Dominion
#64 Davidson
#65 Mississippi
Lowest rated RPI teams projected “in” the tournament as at-large selections
#54 Texas
#50 Vanderbilt
#46 Georgia
#45 USC
#44 Illinois
#43 Notre Dame
#40 West Virginia
#39 Virginia
#38 Michigan St.
#37 Georgetown
#36 Virginia Tech
#35 Stanford
#34 Arkansas
#33 Texas Tech
#32 Washington St.
#31 Missouri St.
Here is a breakdown of conferences with multiple bids (in no particular order):
ACC (8)
UNC
Duke
BC
Maryland
Virginia
Clemson
Va. Tech
FSU
Big East (6)
Pittsburgh
Villanova
Marquette
W. Virginia
Notre Dame
Georgetown
SEC (7)
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Georgia
Alabama
Pac-10 (6)
UCLA
Arizona
Oregon
WSU
USC
Stanford
Big XII (5)
Kansas
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas
Big Ten (5)
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Indiana
MSU
Illinois
MVC (3)
Missouri St.
S. Illinois
Creighton
MWC (2)
Air Force
UNLV
Friday, February 02, 2007
Same collapse, different year
If Bill Martin intends to stick to his word, and plans on staying in Ann Arbor, then Tommy Amaker will be the men’s basketball coach at Michigan for a long time. That’s because Martin has said that as long as he is the Athletic Director, Amaker will be the coach at Michigan. It remains to be seen if Martin included an out-clause on that statement. I guess we’ll find out sooner than later. With Michigan basketball pulling its annual disappearing act, the only way Amaker isn’t out as Michigan coach is if Martin stubbornly stays true to his word.
The Michigan basketball team will miss the NCAA Tournament under Amaker for the sixth straight season. All sorts of players of varying talent have come and gone and the only constant has been a serious lack of preparedness and continuity from the basketball team. As much as I wanted Amaker to succeed at Michigan, he has shown that he doesn’t have what it takes to compete with the rest of the Big Ten. In my opinion, the only difference between Michigan and the upper-echelon teams of the Big Ten (Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin) over the last six years has been coaching. Every year, those other schools are at least competitive. Ohio State was on probation just like Michigan. MSU and Indiana have had years with marginal talent. Yet, they all have remained competitive. Like Michigan, those schools get their fair share of quality recruits. Some (MSU and now OSU) have a little more to work with. Michigan is nowhere near those schools in terms of on-court production. Even the comparatively weaker programs in the Big Ten (Minnesota, Iowa, and Purdue) have had success from time to time. It stands to reason that an average college basketball program would be able to make the NCAA Tournament at least once in six seasons. Six years is an eternity in the sports world.
Since Amaker has been able to keep the Michigan program on the up and up in terms of staying out of trouble, he may be accomplishing exactly what Martin had hoped he would. If that’s the case, then this post is a waste of time (if it isn’t anyways). If Martin is looking to help Michigan get back to semi-glory status, then he’ll have to thank Amaker for his hard work and send him on his way. I hate to say it but Amaker has left a very stale taste in my mouth with regards to hiring assistants and/or coaches without more than one season of success. Amaker didn’t have much success at Seton Hall but his Duke pedigree made him a hot commodity. Most people probably just assume that Amaker was hired by Michigan because of the success that he had at Seton Hall. In four seasons at Seton Hall, he lost 15 games three times. His records were 15-15, 15-15, 22-10, and 16-15. There is no question in my mind that his record at Seton Hall had nothing to do with his hire. He was hired because he was a Coach K protégé and because he had a clean-cut image. Martin took a chance on Amaker and, unfortunately, it has backfired. I don’t want to diminish what Amaker has done for the program. Amaker has made the college basketball world forget about Michigan’s NCAA troubles. There was a time when no self-respecting recruit would touch Michigan with a 500-mile pole. Thanks to Amaker, that isn’t an issue any longer.
Michigan needs to bring in a coach that has had success with inferior talent. Coaches that have succeeded with inferior talent are the fast ticket to restoring Michigan to national prominence. It would also benefit Michigan if it brought in a coach that has proven the ability to inherit an underachieving program and turn it into a force. In some respects, Martin has a convenient situation. He may soon be looking for both a new football coach and a new basketball coach. Ironically, the qualities and characteristics that Michigan should be looking for are the same for both programs. Both ‘M’ football and ‘M’ basketball have struggled to develop players and adjust game-plans. Both programs need coaches that can maximize talent. It doesn’t matter if it’s not a big name. In fact, the coaches that have had the most success in college basketball recently haven’t had the big names. Bill Self, Bruce Weber, and Thad Matta are just a couple of previously unheralded coaches that have had success in the Big Ten. Michigan needs a coach that will be able to win with whatever he inherits. That would require a coach that has proven an ability to excel with the X’s and O’s. Michigan is not to the point where it can expect recruits to beg for a scholarship offer. That only comes with winning on the big stage. The cycle has to be broken and the only way that will happen is if Michigan hires a coach that can win in the intermediate. That’s how downtrodden programs are able to rise from obscurity. I’ll be posting a list of potential candidates next week.
I know there are some Michigan fans out there that still want to give Amaker more time. I can understand the desire to be loyal to a man that has worked tirelessly to restore Michigan’s tainted image. Unfortunately, big-time collegiate sports are as much about wins and losses as they are about having integrity. I know a lot of people with integrity but that doesn’t mean they should be coaching a D-1 college basketball team. The goal is to be superior in both facets. Amaker has proven that he can’t lead a team to big things. I liken the situation to a dreadful contestant on American Idol that asks to sing one more song. It doesn’t matter how many songs they sing, the result is the same. You can either sing or you can’t. Amaker has had numerous chances to sing a different song and the result has been the same every time. As poor as Michigan has appeared over the last six years, the reality is much worse than that. Michigan has managed to somewhat save face by winning an exorbitant amount of games at home against terrible basketball teams. If you dig a little deeper, you’ll find that the truth is probably much worse than you ever thought it was.
Here are some facts about Amaker’s coaching career:
--Amaker’s basketball teams have never finished with less than 10 losses.
--The only two teams in the Big Ten that Michigan has a winning record against under Amaker are Northwestern and Penn St. He is 17-3 against those two schools and 24-51 against everyone else. 41% of Amaker’s Big Ten wins have come against Northwestern and Penn St.
-- Michigan has finished above .500 in the Big Ten once in six seasons.
-- Michigan is 14-37 on the road in the Big Ten over the last six seasons. For comparison, Northwestern is 11-41.
--Of those 14 road wins, nine of them came against Northwestern and Penn St. That means Michigan has a 5-35 road record against Big Ten teams not named Northwestern and Penn St.
--Amaker’s teams have made the NCAA Tournament one time in ten seasons.
--Amaker’s teams have only finished above .500 in six of his ten seasons.
--In his six seasons at Michigan, Amaker is 29-64 against teams in the RPI 100. For comparison, Northwestern has 25 wins against the RPI 100 over the same time period.
--On the other side, Amaker is 64-13 against teams outside of the RPI 100. That equates to 69% of Amaker’s wins coming against teams outside of the RPI 100.
The Michigan basketball team will miss the NCAA Tournament under Amaker for the sixth straight season. All sorts of players of varying talent have come and gone and the only constant has been a serious lack of preparedness and continuity from the basketball team. As much as I wanted Amaker to succeed at Michigan, he has shown that he doesn’t have what it takes to compete with the rest of the Big Ten. In my opinion, the only difference between Michigan and the upper-echelon teams of the Big Ten (Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin) over the last six years has been coaching. Every year, those other schools are at least competitive. Ohio State was on probation just like Michigan. MSU and Indiana have had years with marginal talent. Yet, they all have remained competitive. Like Michigan, those schools get their fair share of quality recruits. Some (MSU and now OSU) have a little more to work with. Michigan is nowhere near those schools in terms of on-court production. Even the comparatively weaker programs in the Big Ten (Minnesota, Iowa, and Purdue) have had success from time to time. It stands to reason that an average college basketball program would be able to make the NCAA Tournament at least once in six seasons. Six years is an eternity in the sports world.
Since Amaker has been able to keep the Michigan program on the up and up in terms of staying out of trouble, he may be accomplishing exactly what Martin had hoped he would. If that’s the case, then this post is a waste of time (if it isn’t anyways). If Martin is looking to help Michigan get back to semi-glory status, then he’ll have to thank Amaker for his hard work and send him on his way. I hate to say it but Amaker has left a very stale taste in my mouth with regards to hiring assistants and/or coaches without more than one season of success. Amaker didn’t have much success at Seton Hall but his Duke pedigree made him a hot commodity. Most people probably just assume that Amaker was hired by Michigan because of the success that he had at Seton Hall. In four seasons at Seton Hall, he lost 15 games three times. His records were 15-15, 15-15, 22-10, and 16-15. There is no question in my mind that his record at Seton Hall had nothing to do with his hire. He was hired because he was a Coach K protégé and because he had a clean-cut image. Martin took a chance on Amaker and, unfortunately, it has backfired. I don’t want to diminish what Amaker has done for the program. Amaker has made the college basketball world forget about Michigan’s NCAA troubles. There was a time when no self-respecting recruit would touch Michigan with a 500-mile pole. Thanks to Amaker, that isn’t an issue any longer.
Michigan needs to bring in a coach that has had success with inferior talent. Coaches that have succeeded with inferior talent are the fast ticket to restoring Michigan to national prominence. It would also benefit Michigan if it brought in a coach that has proven the ability to inherit an underachieving program and turn it into a force. In some respects, Martin has a convenient situation. He may soon be looking for both a new football coach and a new basketball coach. Ironically, the qualities and characteristics that Michigan should be looking for are the same for both programs. Both ‘M’ football and ‘M’ basketball have struggled to develop players and adjust game-plans. Both programs need coaches that can maximize talent. It doesn’t matter if it’s not a big name. In fact, the coaches that have had the most success in college basketball recently haven’t had the big names. Bill Self, Bruce Weber, and Thad Matta are just a couple of previously unheralded coaches that have had success in the Big Ten. Michigan needs a coach that will be able to win with whatever he inherits. That would require a coach that has proven an ability to excel with the X’s and O’s. Michigan is not to the point where it can expect recruits to beg for a scholarship offer. That only comes with winning on the big stage. The cycle has to be broken and the only way that will happen is if Michigan hires a coach that can win in the intermediate. That’s how downtrodden programs are able to rise from obscurity. I’ll be posting a list of potential candidates next week.
I know there are some Michigan fans out there that still want to give Amaker more time. I can understand the desire to be loyal to a man that has worked tirelessly to restore Michigan’s tainted image. Unfortunately, big-time collegiate sports are as much about wins and losses as they are about having integrity. I know a lot of people with integrity but that doesn’t mean they should be coaching a D-1 college basketball team. The goal is to be superior in both facets. Amaker has proven that he can’t lead a team to big things. I liken the situation to a dreadful contestant on American Idol that asks to sing one more song. It doesn’t matter how many songs they sing, the result is the same. You can either sing or you can’t. Amaker has had numerous chances to sing a different song and the result has been the same every time. As poor as Michigan has appeared over the last six years, the reality is much worse than that. Michigan has managed to somewhat save face by winning an exorbitant amount of games at home against terrible basketball teams. If you dig a little deeper, you’ll find that the truth is probably much worse than you ever thought it was.
Here are some facts about Amaker’s coaching career:
--Amaker’s basketball teams have never finished with less than 10 losses.
--The only two teams in the Big Ten that Michigan has a winning record against under Amaker are Northwestern and Penn St. He is 17-3 against those two schools and 24-51 against everyone else. 41% of Amaker’s Big Ten wins have come against Northwestern and Penn St.
-- Michigan has finished above .500 in the Big Ten once in six seasons.
-- Michigan is 14-37 on the road in the Big Ten over the last six seasons. For comparison, Northwestern is 11-41.
--Of those 14 road wins, nine of them came against Northwestern and Penn St. That means Michigan has a 5-35 road record against Big Ten teams not named Northwestern and Penn St.
--Amaker’s teams have made the NCAA Tournament one time in ten seasons.
--Amaker’s teams have only finished above .500 in six of his ten seasons.
--In his six seasons at Michigan, Amaker is 29-64 against teams in the RPI 100. For comparison, Northwestern has 25 wins against the RPI 100 over the same time period.
--On the other side, Amaker is 64-13 against teams outside of the RPI 100. That equates to 69% of Amaker’s wins coming against teams outside of the RPI 100.
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