In November of 1968, Bump Elliott retired after ten seasons as the head coach of the University of Michigan. He also won a National Championship at Michigan as a player, spent time as a positions coach, and became an associate athletic director upon his retirement. He was handpicked by Fritz Crisler who was handpicked by Fielding Yost who was, by no reasonable objection, the father of football excellence in Ann Arbor. Elliott’s lineage takes him back to the beginning. He, unquestionably, was (and is) a “Michigan Man.”
Prior to 1969, Bo Schembechler was not. In fact, he was the anti-Michigan Man. A Buckeye, in fact. After Elliott retired, Don Canham—Michigan’s new athletic director—knew the program needed to move in another direction. What direction(?), was a totally different question all together. Canham wanted Joe Paterno. That fell through. Once that happened, there was no obvious choice, well, until the obvious choice showed up. Going on a tip from a colleague, Canham interviewed Schembechler and came away knowing which direction the program needed to go. Bo was the furthest thing from a “Michigan Man.” He was a MAC coach who had not won on the big stage. With much of the alumni--most of whom clamored for a big name--staunchly opposed to the hire, the press totally unaware of who he was, and Michigan’s seemingly long road back to prominence, Bo’s tenure was poised to start unceremoniously. That is until Bump Elliott chimed in. Bo’s practices were grueling and players who couldn’t or wouldn’t handle them spoke out loudly against the direction of the program. Sound familiar? Elliott vehemently defended Bo when his momentum as a new coach was threatened by disgruntled members of the old guard. Elliott helped Bo get off the ground and Bo took care of the rest.
In 2008, Lloyd Carr retired after 13 seasons as the head coach of the University of Michigan. He was, in a sense, handpicked by Bo Schembechler. He is also, unquestionably, a “Michigan Man.” Although he went out on the shoulders of his Citrus Bowl-winning team, it was not the best of endings for Carr. In fact, it was a lot like Bump Elliott’s departure. The wins weren’t coming as often as expected and both succumbed to the idea that their time had passed.
Rich Rodriguez was ultimately hired as Carr’s successor. His transition paralleled Bo’s in difficulty. Rodriguez was not a “Michigan Man.” He came from West Virginia where remnants of a nasty split followed him to Ann Arbor. He brought with him an offense that was viewed as gimmicky—and if your name is Gary Danielson and only Gary Danielson, it still is—for a number of years before finally being accepted by fans and coaches alike. His demands in the realm of conditioning—like Bo’s before him—were a shock to a culture that had become lax. Like Bo, Rodriguez represented change. Unlike Elliott’s defense of Schembechler, though, Rodriguez has had no such luxury. Much was made early on of Carr’s refusal to say more than just a few words publically in support of Rodriguez and his new regime. It was argued by some at the time that it wasn’t Carr’s place to defend his successor. Rodriguez was a big boy and could take care of himself, or that’s what was argued anyway. Was it Bump Elliott’s place to defend Bo? Regardless of the answer, he did it anyway. Is protecting the integrity of the football program just an optional gesture for former coaches? If it is, that’s one heck of a way to view it.
Rodriguez is a big boy as was Bo. It’s one thing for Carr to not be the biggest fan of Rodriguez. That sort of things happens in every sport on every team. It’s another thing all together when repetitive mudslinging threatens the very core of not only the athletic department but the integrity of the university. This is precisely the situation in which the phrase “circle the wagons” was intended for. Simply put, you come together when attacked. This isn’t about Carr and Rodriguez. This is much bigger. One of the greatest recruiting tools the university has is its athletic reputation. The football program not only supports the entire athletic department by being fully self-sufficient, it is one of the most visible components of the university. This is about defending the University of Michigan. Smear job after smear job has been in the works in an attempt to assassinate Rodriguez’s tenure before it can get off the ground. It began early with attempts to label him not just ignorant of, but indifferent to, Michigan’s history and traditions. From there the efforts got bigger and bolder with a laughable expose on the academic rigors of the Michigan football team. From there it went the “family values” route as two disgruntled and out of shape former players spoke of the program’s moral demise. Considering one of the two players in question transferred to Ohio State and the other failed out of school, the accusations should’ve been dismissed entirely. Instead, they have become the media’s version of the gift that keeps on giving. And finally, we’re at the dying breaths of a once great newspaper as it attempts to unveil the biggest scandal in sports history…totally reasonable amounts of practice. The fact that these attempts are desperate and agenda-driven doesn’t mean these allegations aren’t worth defending. Especially when ESPN is the whore of the sports media. It will report anything and everything regardless the agenda or credibility of the source as long as the story appears somewhere in a newspaper. Regardless of how contrived they are, smear jobs end up on ESPN. Every sports fan in America watches ESPN. That makes defending these things really important.
Forget Rodriguez for a moment, Carr could do the whole university a favor by speaking on a subject that he happens to be an expert on. Especially when Chad Henne goes on record saying that Carr’s program did the exact same things that the Freep’s entire smear campaign hinges on. Carr knows this story is without merit. He knows it because he did the same things. If you want to argue it’s not his place, then maybe he should not have an office in the athletic department. After Bo retired, he kept an office in the AD where he steadfastly defended Michigan whenever the situation called for it. Bo took a page from Bump Elliott. Carr should do the same. There has been pretty loud chatter since Rodriguez’s hiring that there is a split in support in important places. Some of the old guard chimed for Les Miles and have been against Rodriguez from the beginning. Hurt feelings can be expected in any coaching change. However, the chatter isn’t just that dissent exists, it’s that dissention comes from places within the athletic department. Carr’s silence speaks loudly to the notion that there could be merit to such chatter. If true, that would be extremely disappointing.
None of the stuff that is happening to the Michigan football program is Lloyd Carr’s fault. That blame falls squarely on the shoulders of the dying remnants of a newspaper industry going after the biggest fish it can find. Lloyd has nothing to do with this. If he wanted to, though, he could have a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, there is a lot to the old "stubborn coach" stereotype. Coaches are set in their ways. Bo was like that. Carr certainly is, too. Carr might not have the greatest affinity towards Rodriguez for reasons that only he knows but Michigan needs him to fight through that stubbornness and channel Elliott. Perhaps the greatest thing Elliott ever did as a contributor to the university was defend Bo in the beginning. If Carr won’t do the same for Rodriguez, then maybe good ole Bump Elliott can do it again.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
And down the stretch they come...
With two crucial victories over the Angels on Monday and Tuesday, the Tigers clinched their first road series win since June 11th. More importantly, the victories stretched the Tigers lead to 4.5 games in the division which is their biggest lead since June 25. All victories are important at this point but a series-win over the Angels becomes particularly important considering Anaheim’s standing as one of the best teams in the American League. Any win over a team they’re not necessarily expected to beat will give the Tigers leeway during the crucial final weeks of the season.
Despite the collective trembling nerves of Tigers fans everywhere—including in my palms as I write this sentence— the Tigers are actually in a very commanding position. On the surface, a 4.5-game lead doesn’t seem all that comforting especially with the 2006 division collapse fresh on the mind. The Tigers held a five game lead over the Twins with just 21 games remaining. Thankfully, the Tigers were able to hold on to the Wild Card and fend off what might have been the most disastrous moment in recent Tigers history. No harm, no foul, so to speak. The Tigers won’t have that luxury this year with Boston starting to separate itself from the pack. Fortunately, there is a good chance they won’t need it. A 4.5-game lead sounds precarious but according to PlayoffStatus.com, that is good enough to give the Tigers a 72% chance of making the playoffs. The teams trying to catch the Tigers—Chicago and Minnesota—only boast 14% odds, respectively. A lot can change but that is certainly a strong position to be in with just over a month to go.
If the Tigers are going to avoid a repeat of 2006, they will have to do it head-to-head against Chicago and Minnesota. All told, the Tigers play 13 games against the White Sox and Twins. That is certainly more than enough action to significantly alter the AL Central race if the Tigers stumble. At the very least, the Tigers will need to tread water at .500 in those 13 games to keep the division lead from constricting. Fortunately, the Twins and White Sox play each other six more times. That will cut down on the ability for both teams to gain ground.
The determining factor in the AL Central race could come down to schedule strength. The Tigers have a favorable schedule down the stretch with 37 remaining games against teams with a collective winning percentage of .480. Equally important is the fact that the Tigers only have 16 road games remaining. That’s what makes the two wins over the Angels doubly important: 1). They were against a team with a .600 winning percentage and 2). They were on the road where the Tigers boast a loathsome .415 winning percentage. As of this afternoon, the Tigers are through playing the three best teams in the American League—New York, LAA, and Boston. Other than seven pivotal matchups with Tampa Bay, the Tigers don’t play a single team above .500 the rest of the season.
As for the two teams chasing the Tigers, there is good news and bad news. The good news is Chicago’s backloaded schedule. The White Sox have 36 games remaining—21 on the road—against teams with a collective winning percentage of .520. That includes a brutal stretch over the next 2.5 weeks in which they play Boston six times, and the Yankees and Angels three times each. If Chicago is still within 4.5 games on September 15, it will be a player in the final weeks with six games against the Tigers to go along with three each against KC and Cleveland. The difference in schedule strength between Detroit and Chicago is so significant from here out that the White Sox are probably not the main competition for the division crown.
Unfortunately, that brings us to the bad news. Of all the teams in the American League, the Twins have the easiest remaining schedule. They get to feast on a 36-game slate featuring teams with a combined winning percentage of just .471. After their three game tilt against Texas this weekend, the Twins only play one team—the Tigers—the rest of the season that is over .500. They’ll also get to do their damage in the Metrodome for 19 of those games where they have a .565 winning percentage.
*Games through Tuesday, August 25
With Minnesota’s struggling pitching and Chicago’s brutal schedule, there is no guarantee that either team—let alone both—will make a sustained run as the season closes. However, we’ve seen Minnesota and Chicago get hot before. In fact, the Twins have reeled off five in a row already. Some of that is the weak schedule talking but a lot of it is the fact that the Twins—led by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau—can be scary good. We've also seen the Tigers get cold as they boast (or the opposite of boast) eight 3-game (or more) losing streaks this season which, for a division leader, is dreadful. I don’t know what’s going to happen. Odds and schedules only tell part of the story. There is a lot of baseball to be played but the most important part for the Tigers is that it’s meaningful baseball in September. That is something that--amid the sweaty palms--cannot be taken for granted considering the previous 20 years. Yes, that leaves open the possibility of a flaming collapse, but that is so much better than the alternative.
Despite the collective trembling nerves of Tigers fans everywhere—including in my palms as I write this sentence— the Tigers are actually in a very commanding position. On the surface, a 4.5-game lead doesn’t seem all that comforting especially with the 2006 division collapse fresh on the mind. The Tigers held a five game lead over the Twins with just 21 games remaining. Thankfully, the Tigers were able to hold on to the Wild Card and fend off what might have been the most disastrous moment in recent Tigers history. No harm, no foul, so to speak. The Tigers won’t have that luxury this year with Boston starting to separate itself from the pack. Fortunately, there is a good chance they won’t need it. A 4.5-game lead sounds precarious but according to PlayoffStatus.com, that is good enough to give the Tigers a 72% chance of making the playoffs. The teams trying to catch the Tigers—Chicago and Minnesota—only boast 14% odds, respectively. A lot can change but that is certainly a strong position to be in with just over a month to go.
If the Tigers are going to avoid a repeat of 2006, they will have to do it head-to-head against Chicago and Minnesota. All told, the Tigers play 13 games against the White Sox and Twins. That is certainly more than enough action to significantly alter the AL Central race if the Tigers stumble. At the very least, the Tigers will need to tread water at .500 in those 13 games to keep the division lead from constricting. Fortunately, the Twins and White Sox play each other six more times. That will cut down on the ability for both teams to gain ground.
The determining factor in the AL Central race could come down to schedule strength. The Tigers have a favorable schedule down the stretch with 37 remaining games against teams with a collective winning percentage of .480. Equally important is the fact that the Tigers only have 16 road games remaining. That’s what makes the two wins over the Angels doubly important: 1). They were against a team with a .600 winning percentage and 2). They were on the road where the Tigers boast a loathsome .415 winning percentage. As of this afternoon, the Tigers are through playing the three best teams in the American League—New York, LAA, and Boston. Other than seven pivotal matchups with Tampa Bay, the Tigers don’t play a single team above .500 the rest of the season.
As for the two teams chasing the Tigers, there is good news and bad news. The good news is Chicago’s backloaded schedule. The White Sox have 36 games remaining—21 on the road—against teams with a collective winning percentage of .520. That includes a brutal stretch over the next 2.5 weeks in which they play Boston six times, and the Yankees and Angels three times each. If Chicago is still within 4.5 games on September 15, it will be a player in the final weeks with six games against the Tigers to go along with three each against KC and Cleveland. The difference in schedule strength between Detroit and Chicago is so significant from here out that the White Sox are probably not the main competition for the division crown.
Unfortunately, that brings us to the bad news. Of all the teams in the American League, the Twins have the easiest remaining schedule. They get to feast on a 36-game slate featuring teams with a combined winning percentage of just .471. After their three game tilt against Texas this weekend, the Twins only play one team—the Tigers—the rest of the season that is over .500. They’ll also get to do their damage in the Metrodome for 19 of those games where they have a .565 winning percentage.
The Stretch
| Player | GB | Games Left | Strength of Schedule | Road Games | Odds of Playoffs |
| Detroit | --- | 37 | .480 | 16 | 72 |
| Chicago | 4.5 | 36 | .520 | 21 | 14 |
| Minnesota | 4.5 | 36 | .471 | 17 | 14 |
*Games through Tuesday, August 25
With Minnesota’s struggling pitching and Chicago’s brutal schedule, there is no guarantee that either team—let alone both—will make a sustained run as the season closes. However, we’ve seen Minnesota and Chicago get hot before. In fact, the Twins have reeled off five in a row already. Some of that is the weak schedule talking but a lot of it is the fact that the Twins—led by Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau—can be scary good. We've also seen the Tigers get cold as they boast (or the opposite of boast) eight 3-game (or more) losing streaks this season which, for a division leader, is dreadful. I don’t know what’s going to happen. Odds and schedules only tell part of the story. There is a lot of baseball to be played but the most important part for the Tigers is that it’s meaningful baseball in September. That is something that--amid the sweaty palms--cannot be taken for granted considering the previous 20 years. Yes, that leaves open the possibility of a flaming collapse, but that is so much better than the alternative.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Worldwide Rubbish
There have been a bevy of falsehoods reported by the media ever since Rich Rodriguez signed on at Michigan. They have ranged from attacks on his lawfulness by recklessly reporting that he shredded documents upon his departure from WVU—no evidence exists whatsoever to support that claim—to attacks on his character by carelessly reporting that it was his idea—and not the UM Athletic Department—to fight the buyout in his WVU contract. The entirety of the falsehoods reads like Octo-mom’s grocery list. Perhaps none, though, have been more blatant and cavalier than ESPN’s lousy and pathetic attempt to drum up interest in an otherwise tame fall practice report.
Last night, ESPN ran an AP article on its main page discussing Michigan football that could hardly be considered newsworthy. The theme of the article was the origin of Denard Robinson's nickname. It was a run-of-the mill human interest story devoid of any actual "news." At no point in the article was Rich Rodriguez or any other Michigan coach quoted as saying anything even remotely revealing about a QB race that is still two weeks away from being decided. The problem is that an article that vanilla doesn't interest anyone outside of the Michigan fanbase. The obvious solution is to trick people into reading the article with a misleading headline.
ESPN went the provocative route and titled the article, “Michigan plans for 3-QB shuffle in opener.” I'm pretty in tune with the happenings of the Michigan football program and this would've been huge news in the "M" community if it were true. Rodriguez is not the kind of coach who would reveal something like that even if it were true. When I saw the link on ESPN's main page, I nearly spit out the imaginary glass of Sam Adams Oktoberfest that I was drinking. I quickly clicked on the link only to find that the article included nothing supporting the headline. Shortly thereafter, ESPN’s TV ticker read, “Rich Rodriguez says he will play three quarterbacks in Michigan’s season opener against Western Michigan.” Where was all of this coming from? It turns out that Rodriguez said on Sunday that "it looks like" all three quarterbacks could play in the opener but that quote isn't even included in the AP article. The reason it's not in the AP article is because Rodriguez goes on to caution that this is as of two weeks out and that "There's a lot that's going to happen in the next two weeks." There is certainly nothing definitive there and anyone familiar with coachspeak knows it was just that. All you get from the AP article are two random quotes conveniently tucked into the end of a human interest piece:
There isn’t a less definitive word in the English language than “maybe.” Rodriguez doesn’t even come close to saying that he will play three quarterbacks in the opener. He clearly states that he "wouldn't tell" even if there was something to tell. How much more clear could he have been? That doesn’t stop ESPN from turning a non-story into a front page bombshell.
ESPN isn’t stupid. It knows that Rodriguez didn’t say what it attributes to him. That’s why the article originally had a different title that reflected the actual contents of the story. Apologies, I do not remember the exact wording but when I clicked on the link from the ESPN main page, the actual article had a title referencing Denard Robinson. If what ESPN was reporting in this article was so newsworthy, wouldn’t you think that it would begin with that information instead of mundane filler about the origin of Robinson’s nickname? ESPN fabricated a headline to get readership and then took it a step further by taking that fabricated headline and making it into fabricated story via the ticker. Not surprisingly, Jim Rome took that fabricated story and burned on it today. Congratulations to ESPN for a job well done. News made--not reported.
Rodriguez didn’t just not say he would play three quarterbacks. He hasn’t said anything remotely revealing about the QB race at any point this summer. Unfortunately, that doesn't matter. This isn't about honesty; it's about interest via readership and viewership. Rodriguez—and subsequently the Michigan football program—has been a whipping boy of the press ever since he left WVU not because ESPN or anyone else dislikes him but because sports fans eat it up. Villains are huge in sports. Whether they're real or imagined doesn't really matter.
If Michigan shows signs of life this season as most expect, then ESPN won't be able to harp on last season's 3-9 debacle anymore. Rodriguez is rapidly changing the makeup of his roster to better adapt to the demands of his offense. It is only a matter of time before the wins start piling up again. At that point, you can expect ESPN to lead the praise on the return to prominence of a great program. Rodriguez will again be one of the best coaches in America and all will be forgotten. The fabricated stories about Michigan will be over but, by that time, ESPN will be on to fabricating stories about something or someone else. The take-home here is a first cousin to "You can't judge a book by its cover." Misleading headlines to attract "hits" and "buzz" are en vogue. If you're used to browsing headlines for news, you might want to reconsider that approach. Otherwise, you might pull a Jim Rome and burn on a report that isn't even true.
Last night, ESPN ran an AP article on its main page discussing Michigan football that could hardly be considered newsworthy. The theme of the article was the origin of Denard Robinson's nickname. It was a run-of-the mill human interest story devoid of any actual "news." At no point in the article was Rich Rodriguez or any other Michigan coach quoted as saying anything even remotely revealing about a QB race that is still two weeks away from being decided. The problem is that an article that vanilla doesn't interest anyone outside of the Michigan fanbase. The obvious solution is to trick people into reading the article with a misleading headline.
ESPN went the provocative route and titled the article, “Michigan plans for 3-QB shuffle in opener.” I'm pretty in tune with the happenings of the Michigan football program and this would've been huge news in the "M" community if it were true. Rodriguez is not the kind of coach who would reveal something like that even if it were true. When I saw the link on ESPN's main page, I nearly spit out the imaginary glass of Sam Adams Oktoberfest that I was drinking. I quickly clicked on the link only to find that the article included nothing supporting the headline. Shortly thereafter, ESPN’s TV ticker read, “Rich Rodriguez says he will play three quarterbacks in Michigan’s season opener against Western Michigan.” Where was all of this coming from? It turns out that Rodriguez said on Sunday that "it looks like" all three quarterbacks could play in the opener but that quote isn't even included in the AP article. The reason it's not in the AP article is because Rodriguez goes on to caution that this is as of two weeks out and that "There's a lot that's going to happen in the next two weeks." There is certainly nothing definitive there and anyone familiar with coachspeak knows it was just that. All you get from the AP article are two random quotes conveniently tucked into the end of a human interest piece:
Rodriguez has seen his quarterbacks compete for a couple weeks and yet he isn't ready to say who is even the front-runner in the race.
"If there was, I wouldn't tell you," he said.
Rodriguez insisted the player who takes the first snaps will not necessarily be the No. 1 QB for the rest of the season.
"Maybe we'll have three starting quarterbacks," Rodriguez said. "That would be neat."
There isn’t a less definitive word in the English language than “maybe.” Rodriguez doesn’t even come close to saying that he will play three quarterbacks in the opener. He clearly states that he "wouldn't tell" even if there was something to tell. How much more clear could he have been? That doesn’t stop ESPN from turning a non-story into a front page bombshell.
ESPN isn’t stupid. It knows that Rodriguez didn’t say what it attributes to him. That’s why the article originally had a different title that reflected the actual contents of the story. Apologies, I do not remember the exact wording but when I clicked on the link from the ESPN main page, the actual article had a title referencing Denard Robinson. If what ESPN was reporting in this article was so newsworthy, wouldn’t you think that it would begin with that information instead of mundane filler about the origin of Robinson’s nickname? ESPN fabricated a headline to get readership and then took it a step further by taking that fabricated headline and making it into fabricated story via the ticker. Not surprisingly, Jim Rome took that fabricated story and burned on it today. Congratulations to ESPN for a job well done. News made--not reported.
Rodriguez didn’t just not say he would play three quarterbacks. He hasn’t said anything remotely revealing about the QB race at any point this summer. Unfortunately, that doesn't matter. This isn't about honesty; it's about interest via readership and viewership. Rodriguez—and subsequently the Michigan football program—has been a whipping boy of the press ever since he left WVU not because ESPN or anyone else dislikes him but because sports fans eat it up. Villains are huge in sports. Whether they're real or imagined doesn't really matter.
If Michigan shows signs of life this season as most expect, then ESPN won't be able to harp on last season's 3-9 debacle anymore. Rodriguez is rapidly changing the makeup of his roster to better adapt to the demands of his offense. It is only a matter of time before the wins start piling up again. At that point, you can expect ESPN to lead the praise on the return to prominence of a great program. Rodriguez will again be one of the best coaches in America and all will be forgotten. The fabricated stories about Michigan will be over but, by that time, ESPN will be on to fabricating stories about something or someone else. The take-home here is a first cousin to "You can't judge a book by its cover." Misleading headlines to attract "hits" and "buzz" are en vogue. If you're used to browsing headlines for news, you might want to reconsider that approach. Otherwise, you might pull a Jim Rome and burn on a report that isn't even true.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Not a Fan of Consolation Prizes
I’m going to lead off this post by saying something that I’ve never said before: I think the Tigers should’ve traded for Adam Dunn. Shocking, I know. You might remember a post from two months ago that I titled, “Five Prescriptions for an Anemic Offense.” At the time, it appeared as though the Tigers would need to add a major bat to stave off the White Sox and Twins for the Central Division Title. The goal of that post was to identify players who the Tigers had a legitimate chance of acquiring. Trading isn’t easy. In the NBA, the Lakers can say to the Grizzlies, “I’ll give you nothing for Pau Gasol” and get "sounds great!" as a response. That doesn’t work in MLB. A number of factors need to be present to make a trade without getting abused by an opportunistic GM. First, you have to trade with a team that has no chance of making the playoffs. Second, the salary has to be reasonable. Third, the contract should preferably expire within the next 1.5 years. Fourth, the player should be on the back nine of his prime. Those aren’t stone cold rules to follow; but, for the most part, they are the characteristics of a fair, mid-season trade. From that criteria, I came up with five names. If you’ve read anything that I’ve written in the past two months, I don’t have to tell you who #1 was. Number two was Matt Holliday who the Tigers made a run at only to be outbid by the Cardinals. Number three was—drumroll, please—Aubrey Huff.
If the Tigers move Joel Zumaya to the starting rotation, I’m going to have to consider the possibility that Dave Dombrowski is one of my four readers. Three years ago, I wrote that the Tigers should trade for Sean Casey and, for better or worse, it happened. A little less than three years ago I suggested that the Tigers consider Gary Sheffield and they did. This time we agreed on Aubrey Huff. That isn’t to say that I’m happy the Tigers got Huff. Clearly, there is a huge cutoff between the booming bats of Dunn and Holliday and the solid but inconsistent stick that Huff carries around. Not getting either Dunn or Holliday was failure, in my opinion. I have feared all season that whether the Tigers make the playoffs or not relies solely on DD’s ability to bring an elite bat to Detroit. Knowing the opportunity for both Dunn and Holliday was there, not getting either was akin to being OK with missing the playoffs. To be fair, you can fail with a 59 or you can fail with a zero. In my opinion, Huff was the equivalent of failing with a 59. Don't get me wrong, the Huff acquisition on its own merit deserves a much better score--I'd say at least an 80--but I am grading on a heavy curve based on what the Tigers could've gotten had they understood how fickle the value of "top prospects" are.
Since my opinion on Huff is the same now as it was two months ago, I’ll just quote myself:
“Huff has “Renteria Syndrome” which is a condition that spawns rapid fluctuations of inconsistency. Huff was a superstar last season with Baltimore when he hammered the American League—not the least of which was the Tigers—for 32 home runs and 108 RBIs. He makes just $8 million and he is in the last year of his contract. The Orioles have no chance in the stacked AL East. Huff has struggled this year with an OPS+ of 94 through 62 games. However, he would come cheap and he would give Miguel Cabrera some protection. Part of the gamble on Huff would be the hope that he would regain some of his ’08 form. If he could put up anything close to that, the Tigers would likely see a vast improvement in offensive production. Huff also has the added bonus of being a left-handed bat which is something the Tigers have needed since 1842—or thereabouts. “
So, yeah. Huff won’t bring a World Series to Detroit. However, it’s not crazy to think that—in a race as tightly contested as the AL Central has been all season—Huff could (triple special emphasis on "could") bring a Central Division Title to Detroit. If the Tigers weren’t going to make a trade before the trade deadline, then I think grabbing Huff was about the best they could’ve done. Anyone worth a damn would’ve been claimed on waivers (see; Alex Rios). Like Jarrod Washburn, Huff has two months left on his contract and came at a cheap price. Brett Jacobson—the lefty reliever the Tigers parted with to get Huff—was among the top 15 prospects in the organization according to me but he was stuck behind eleventy hundred other relievers who have equal to or greater potential. Huff basically cost nothing. It’s interesting to think you can get Aubrey Huff for next to nothing but can’t get Adam Dunn for a totally reasonable group of prospects. Nonetheless, DD made the best move he could’ve made after the deadline and deserves credit for that. Considering the Tigers inked three pivotal prospects from their 2009 draft just before the deadline to sign expired, this has to be considered a good week for the organization. The three signees—Jacob Turner, Andrew Oliver, and Daniel Fields—won’t help the Tigers this season but they will immediately bolster the credibility of the farm system and, thus, give the Tigers more ammunition to make a Miguel Cabrera-type addition down the road. In the meantime, Aubrey Huff is the only help the team is getting. Early returns aren't favorable but I think there is a perfectly good explanation for that. I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't feel a lot better if he grew his goatee back. Unfortunately, Baseball-Reference doesn’t have player splits for different types of facial hair but, from what I’ve noticed, Huff is a much better hitter with a goatee.
Bottom line: Having an adequate lefty bat in the middle of the lineup is a welcome addition. The AL Central is almost certainly going down to the wire and the Tigers chances of hanging on are better now, than they were four days ago. The good news is that the Tigers are still 1.5 games ahead of the White Sox. The bad news is that the Tigers are only 1.5 games ahead of the White Sox. Giddy up!
If the Tigers move Joel Zumaya to the starting rotation, I’m going to have to consider the possibility that Dave Dombrowski is one of my four readers. Three years ago, I wrote that the Tigers should trade for Sean Casey and, for better or worse, it happened. A little less than three years ago I suggested that the Tigers consider Gary Sheffield and they did. This time we agreed on Aubrey Huff. That isn’t to say that I’m happy the Tigers got Huff. Clearly, there is a huge cutoff between the booming bats of Dunn and Holliday and the solid but inconsistent stick that Huff carries around. Not getting either Dunn or Holliday was failure, in my opinion. I have feared all season that whether the Tigers make the playoffs or not relies solely on DD’s ability to bring an elite bat to Detroit. Knowing the opportunity for both Dunn and Holliday was there, not getting either was akin to being OK with missing the playoffs. To be fair, you can fail with a 59 or you can fail with a zero. In my opinion, Huff was the equivalent of failing with a 59. Don't get me wrong, the Huff acquisition on its own merit deserves a much better score--I'd say at least an 80--but I am grading on a heavy curve based on what the Tigers could've gotten had they understood how fickle the value of "top prospects" are.
Since my opinion on Huff is the same now as it was two months ago, I’ll just quote myself:
“Huff has “Renteria Syndrome” which is a condition that spawns rapid fluctuations of inconsistency. Huff was a superstar last season with Baltimore when he hammered the American League—not the least of which was the Tigers—for 32 home runs and 108 RBIs. He makes just $8 million and he is in the last year of his contract. The Orioles have no chance in the stacked AL East. Huff has struggled this year with an OPS+ of 94 through 62 games. However, he would come cheap and he would give Miguel Cabrera some protection. Part of the gamble on Huff would be the hope that he would regain some of his ’08 form. If he could put up anything close to that, the Tigers would likely see a vast improvement in offensive production. Huff also has the added bonus of being a left-handed bat which is something the Tigers have needed since 1842—or thereabouts. “
So, yeah. Huff won’t bring a World Series to Detroit. However, it’s not crazy to think that—in a race as tightly contested as the AL Central has been all season—Huff could (triple special emphasis on "could") bring a Central Division Title to Detroit. If the Tigers weren’t going to make a trade before the trade deadline, then I think grabbing Huff was about the best they could’ve done. Anyone worth a damn would’ve been claimed on waivers (see; Alex Rios). Like Jarrod Washburn, Huff has two months left on his contract and came at a cheap price. Brett Jacobson—the lefty reliever the Tigers parted with to get Huff—was among the top 15 prospects in the organization according to me but he was stuck behind eleventy hundred other relievers who have equal to or greater potential. Huff basically cost nothing. It’s interesting to think you can get Aubrey Huff for next to nothing but can’t get Adam Dunn for a totally reasonable group of prospects. Nonetheless, DD made the best move he could’ve made after the deadline and deserves credit for that. Considering the Tigers inked three pivotal prospects from their 2009 draft just before the deadline to sign expired, this has to be considered a good week for the organization. The three signees—Jacob Turner, Andrew Oliver, and Daniel Fields—won’t help the Tigers this season but they will immediately bolster the credibility of the farm system and, thus, give the Tigers more ammunition to make a Miguel Cabrera-type addition down the road. In the meantime, Aubrey Huff is the only help the team is getting. Early returns aren't favorable but I think there is a perfectly good explanation for that. I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't feel a lot better if he grew his goatee back. Unfortunately, Baseball-Reference doesn’t have player splits for different types of facial hair but, from what I’ve noticed, Huff is a much better hitter with a goatee.
Bottom line: Having an adequate lefty bat in the middle of the lineup is a welcome addition. The AL Central is almost certainly going down to the wire and the Tigers chances of hanging on are better now, than they were four days ago. The good news is that the Tigers are still 1.5 games ahead of the White Sox. The bad news is that the Tigers are only 1.5 games ahead of the White Sox. Giddy up!
Monday, August 17, 2009
Will the Real Hall of Famers Please Stand Up
There is no question that the ongoing undressing of the steroid-era has minimized the accomplishments of today’s best hitters. It’s tough not to be skeptical of everyone when the list of All-Star “juicers” keeps growing seemingly by the week. The fact that the players who have been “outed” have been some of the top power-hitters in baseball history makes fans skeptical of every power-hitting achievement. Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Miguel Tejada, and David Ortiz have been four of the most prolific hitters of this decade; all have “steroid user” under their resume. The same goes for virtually every elite home run hitter of the 90’s. Skepticism reigns and it probably will for some time.
Meanwhile, power numbers have fallen to pre-steroid era levels which may indicate that drug-use has been somewhat eradicated from the game. Still, it remains to be seen how HOF voters will treat "clean" players achieving old benchmarks moving forward. It’s possible that they’ll throw the baby out with the bath water so to speak and eliminate 500 home runs as a milestone all together. I don’t think that will happen but it certainly could. There is no question that steroid-use had marginalized the 500 HR-milestone temporarily but it is too important of a mark to lose all together. Plus, the 60 and 70 home run seasons are long gone. In fact, 40-home run seasons have even become an endangered species. The AL Home Run Champ last season—M. Cabrera—had just 37 home runs and this year’s AL leader likely won’t reach 40 either. You have to go back to 1983 to find two consecutive AL seasons without a 40-home run hitter. After 15 years of Zimbabwe level inflation, the value of a home run is back to face value. For active players who haven’t sniffed a positive drug test that should mean the reinstatement of the significance of the 500 HR milestone.
Players from this era—players who have not been associated with drug use—may have a difficult time getting the recognition that a “clean” player deserves because of the transgressions of their colleagues. Carlos Delgado is one example of a "clean" player whose numbers haven't been respected because they pale in comparison to the power-hitting juicers that he played with earlier in his career. Steroid-users are going to have a very difficult time getting into the HOF; we know that. What some might not know, however, is which "clean" players are going to be left standing when judgments are eventually passed. Some of the names are obvious while others not so much. Here are the current "clean" MLB hitters who are likely headed to the Hall of Fame. I would not be surprised if one or more of these players gets busted for cheating sometime down the road. For the time being, though, I’ll assume they’re clean.
Albert Pujols
Duh.
Vladimir Guerrero
.322 career batting average; 13 consecutive seasons hitting over .300; 147 OPS+; He is a lock even if his career ended today.
Jim Thome
Nobody has had their accomplishments damaged more by the steroid-era than Thome. He has 563 home runs—good for 12th all-time—and nobody cares. Fifteen years ago, that would’ve been good for 6th all-time. Fans have become numb to gaudy home run totals. Thome won’t have a problem getting into the Hall of Fame but it’s unlikely he’ll be regarded as the top (clean) home run hitter of his generation as he should be. Don’t be surprised to see him finish in the top five all-time passing Ken Griffey Jr. along the way.
Carlos Delgado
I won’t call Delgado a “lock” because of what I discussed earlier but it would take an abrupt ending to his career to keep him from reaching the HOF. He’ll probably reach 500 home runs and 1,650 RBIs. No “clean” player has ever been kept out with either mark let alone both.
Ken Griffey Jr.
It’s sad to think how much more damage he could’ve done without the injuries.
Chipper Jones
He is probably the second most underrated player of his generation but his “value” has taken a big hit because of the bizarre number of injuries that he continues to suffer. I have seen a lot of baseball and I have never seen a player suffer more injuries than Chipper Jones. Nonetheless, he is one of the greatest third basemen of all-time even if nobody knows it.
Todd Helton
The steroid-era might actually help Helton. He has played his entire career at Coors Field where numbers aren’t taken seriously. Larry Walker hit over .360 three times for the Rockies and won’t sniff the Hall of Fame. However, when it comes to discounting numbers, "steroids" will likely usurp "Coors Field" in a major way. Voters will likely be more enamored with the way he achieved his numbers--cleanly--rather than where he achieved them. That might not have happened without the steroid-era. Helton has a .328 batting average and a 141 OPS+. If he played anywhere else in America, he would be a first ballot HOFer. If he stays in Colorado, he should have a good shot at 3,000 hits which would render this moot. BTW—Larry Walker should be in the Hall of Fame. Look for a post on that sometime soon.
Lance Berkman
Fat Elvis is the most underrated hitter in a long, long time. He is a career-.300 hitter. He has nearly a 1:1 K:BB ratio. He has six 100-RBI seasons including three over 125. His OPS+ is through the roof at 147. I get the feeling that this switch-hitting masher has a lot of baseball left. He’ll easily reach Hall of Fame numbers and, subsequently, the Hall of Fame.
Adam Dunn
I’m not sure if Dunn is severely underrated or just severely misunderstood. If you ever want to intentionally frustrate yourself, wander over to the “comments” section of an article about Adam Dunn and trade rumors. There you will find the dumbest baseball fans in America. Or, you could just strike up a conversation with J.P. Ricciardi. Dunn is on pace to reach 40+ home runs for the sixth consecutive season. Babe Ruth holds the MLB record with seven. Only seven players in MLB history have walked more by the age of 28. All the Dunn detractors want to talk about are his strike-outs. Don’t tell them that Albert Pujols led MLB in double plays (GIDP) in 2007. Once people understand that it doesn’t matter how you get out—other than sacrifice situations, obviously— rather it matters how often you get out and what you do when you don't get out, then Dunn will take his rightful place as one of the great power-hitters of all-time.
Ichiro
He’s 35 and hitting .360. He will also reach 2,000 hits in September after just nine seasons. The only other player to do it faster was nobody!
Derek Jeter
Jeter has his eyes set on Pete Rose’s hits-record.
Mark Teixeira
Teixeira is the AL version of Lance Berkman. Fortunately for Tex, he escaped the obscurity of Texas—something Berkman hasn’t been able to do. Now that he’s mashing for the Yankees, you’ll see his profile skyrocket. He’s putting the finishing touches on a sixth consecutive 30 hr/100 RBI-season. Since he’s only 29, I’d say we can expect quite a few more.
Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Prince Fielder, David Wright, and Joe Mauer are all headed for Cooperstown barring injury but they still have a long, long way to go so I figured I'd help delay the onset of arthritis in my fingers just a little bit longer by focusing on the more accomplished cases.
Fringe cases:
Another byproduct of the steroid-era could be that voters may decide to focus their efforts on unconventional players rather than the usual power-hitters. If that happens, then these four players stand to have their odds of making it to the HOF increase:
Omar Vizquel
Nobody benefited from the steroid-era more than Vizquel. The nasty aftertaste of cheating will only make voters appreciate the "finer" things in baseball like longevity and defense—even if it means artificially raising the value of a player who obviously should not be elected to the Hall of Fame. Whoever thinks Vizquel should be in the Hall of Fame should be forced to own and manage a baseball team that has a). the best defenders in MLB at every position and b). no player with an OPS above .700. I’d love to see how that works out.
Johnny Damon
Damon—another player who really shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame—is another player who’s career will look much better than it was through the lenses of anti-steroid vitriol. Damon might actually cement his status as a HOFer on his own since he has an outside chance of reaching 3,000 hits. Otherwise, he’s just a slightly above average hitter. His career OPS+ is just 105. However, Damon has scored A LOT of runs (nine consecutive seasons of 100+), made a killing off of the New York/Boston rivalry and played in enough postseason games that his profile is bloated enough that Hall of Fame induction seems more and more likely by the day.
Bobby Abreu
Abreu’s power outage after winning the 2006 Home Run Derby was pretty weird. However, it couldn’t have happened at a better time. That was just when home runs were going out of style. The rest of Abreu’s resume is stellar. He has a .300 batting average with a 132 OPS+. He has a .405 career OBP. He has 342 stolen bases. He has an outside chance of becoming the first player in MLB history with 300+ home runs, 350+ stolen bases, and a .300+ batting average. He should get close to 3,000 hits. If voters are set to appreciate a more diverse skillset due to a home run backlash, then Abreu could stand to benefit.
Michael Young
Young is working on his 6th 200-hit season. I don’t think any of his other statistics even matter after that. Voters will love themselves some Michael Young when his time for judgment comes.
Meanwhile, power numbers have fallen to pre-steroid era levels which may indicate that drug-use has been somewhat eradicated from the game. Still, it remains to be seen how HOF voters will treat "clean" players achieving old benchmarks moving forward. It’s possible that they’ll throw the baby out with the bath water so to speak and eliminate 500 home runs as a milestone all together. I don’t think that will happen but it certainly could. There is no question that steroid-use had marginalized the 500 HR-milestone temporarily but it is too important of a mark to lose all together. Plus, the 60 and 70 home run seasons are long gone. In fact, 40-home run seasons have even become an endangered species. The AL Home Run Champ last season—M. Cabrera—had just 37 home runs and this year’s AL leader likely won’t reach 40 either. You have to go back to 1983 to find two consecutive AL seasons without a 40-home run hitter. After 15 years of Zimbabwe level inflation, the value of a home run is back to face value. For active players who haven’t sniffed a positive drug test that should mean the reinstatement of the significance of the 500 HR milestone.
Players from this era—players who have not been associated with drug use—may have a difficult time getting the recognition that a “clean” player deserves because of the transgressions of their colleagues. Carlos Delgado is one example of a "clean" player whose numbers haven't been respected because they pale in comparison to the power-hitting juicers that he played with earlier in his career. Steroid-users are going to have a very difficult time getting into the HOF; we know that. What some might not know, however, is which "clean" players are going to be left standing when judgments are eventually passed. Some of the names are obvious while others not so much. Here are the current "clean" MLB hitters who are likely headed to the Hall of Fame. I would not be surprised if one or more of these players gets busted for cheating sometime down the road. For the time being, though, I’ll assume they’re clean.
Albert Pujols
Duh.
Vladimir Guerrero
.322 career batting average; 13 consecutive seasons hitting over .300; 147 OPS+; He is a lock even if his career ended today.
Jim Thome
Nobody has had their accomplishments damaged more by the steroid-era than Thome. He has 563 home runs—good for 12th all-time—and nobody cares. Fifteen years ago, that would’ve been good for 6th all-time. Fans have become numb to gaudy home run totals. Thome won’t have a problem getting into the Hall of Fame but it’s unlikely he’ll be regarded as the top (clean) home run hitter of his generation as he should be. Don’t be surprised to see him finish in the top five all-time passing Ken Griffey Jr. along the way.
Carlos Delgado
I won’t call Delgado a “lock” because of what I discussed earlier but it would take an abrupt ending to his career to keep him from reaching the HOF. He’ll probably reach 500 home runs and 1,650 RBIs. No “clean” player has ever been kept out with either mark let alone both.
Ken Griffey Jr.
It’s sad to think how much more damage he could’ve done without the injuries.
Chipper Jones
He is probably the second most underrated player of his generation but his “value” has taken a big hit because of the bizarre number of injuries that he continues to suffer. I have seen a lot of baseball and I have never seen a player suffer more injuries than Chipper Jones. Nonetheless, he is one of the greatest third basemen of all-time even if nobody knows it.
Todd Helton
The steroid-era might actually help Helton. He has played his entire career at Coors Field where numbers aren’t taken seriously. Larry Walker hit over .360 three times for the Rockies and won’t sniff the Hall of Fame. However, when it comes to discounting numbers, "steroids" will likely usurp "Coors Field" in a major way. Voters will likely be more enamored with the way he achieved his numbers--cleanly--rather than where he achieved them. That might not have happened without the steroid-era. Helton has a .328 batting average and a 141 OPS+. If he played anywhere else in America, he would be a first ballot HOFer. If he stays in Colorado, he should have a good shot at 3,000 hits which would render this moot. BTW—Larry Walker should be in the Hall of Fame. Look for a post on that sometime soon.
Lance Berkman
Fat Elvis is the most underrated hitter in a long, long time. He is a career-.300 hitter. He has nearly a 1:1 K:BB ratio. He has six 100-RBI seasons including three over 125. His OPS+ is through the roof at 147. I get the feeling that this switch-hitting masher has a lot of baseball left. He’ll easily reach Hall of Fame numbers and, subsequently, the Hall of Fame.
Adam Dunn
I’m not sure if Dunn is severely underrated or just severely misunderstood. If you ever want to intentionally frustrate yourself, wander over to the “comments” section of an article about Adam Dunn and trade rumors. There you will find the dumbest baseball fans in America. Or, you could just strike up a conversation with J.P. Ricciardi. Dunn is on pace to reach 40+ home runs for the sixth consecutive season. Babe Ruth holds the MLB record with seven. Only seven players in MLB history have walked more by the age of 28. All the Dunn detractors want to talk about are his strike-outs. Don’t tell them that Albert Pujols led MLB in double plays (GIDP) in 2007. Once people understand that it doesn’t matter how you get out—other than sacrifice situations, obviously— rather it matters how often you get out and what you do when you don't get out, then Dunn will take his rightful place as one of the great power-hitters of all-time.
Ichiro
He’s 35 and hitting .360. He will also reach 2,000 hits in September after just nine seasons. The only other player to do it faster was nobody!
Derek Jeter
Jeter has his eyes set on Pete Rose’s hits-record.
Mark Teixeira
Teixeira is the AL version of Lance Berkman. Fortunately for Tex, he escaped the obscurity of Texas—something Berkman hasn’t been able to do. Now that he’s mashing for the Yankees, you’ll see his profile skyrocket. He’s putting the finishing touches on a sixth consecutive 30 hr/100 RBI-season. Since he’s only 29, I’d say we can expect quite a few more.
Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Morneau, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, Prince Fielder, David Wright, and Joe Mauer are all headed for Cooperstown barring injury but they still have a long, long way to go so I figured I'd help delay the onset of arthritis in my fingers just a little bit longer by focusing on the more accomplished cases.
Fringe cases:
Another byproduct of the steroid-era could be that voters may decide to focus their efforts on unconventional players rather than the usual power-hitters. If that happens, then these four players stand to have their odds of making it to the HOF increase:
Omar Vizquel
Nobody benefited from the steroid-era more than Vizquel. The nasty aftertaste of cheating will only make voters appreciate the "finer" things in baseball like longevity and defense—even if it means artificially raising the value of a player who obviously should not be elected to the Hall of Fame. Whoever thinks Vizquel should be in the Hall of Fame should be forced to own and manage a baseball team that has a). the best defenders in MLB at every position and b). no player with an OPS above .700. I’d love to see how that works out.
Johnny Damon
Damon—another player who really shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame—is another player who’s career will look much better than it was through the lenses of anti-steroid vitriol. Damon might actually cement his status as a HOFer on his own since he has an outside chance of reaching 3,000 hits. Otherwise, he’s just a slightly above average hitter. His career OPS+ is just 105. However, Damon has scored A LOT of runs (nine consecutive seasons of 100+), made a killing off of the New York/Boston rivalry and played in enough postseason games that his profile is bloated enough that Hall of Fame induction seems more and more likely by the day.
Bobby Abreu
Abreu’s power outage after winning the 2006 Home Run Derby was pretty weird. However, it couldn’t have happened at a better time. That was just when home runs were going out of style. The rest of Abreu’s resume is stellar. He has a .300 batting average with a 132 OPS+. He has a .405 career OBP. He has 342 stolen bases. He has an outside chance of becoming the first player in MLB history with 300+ home runs, 350+ stolen bases, and a .300+ batting average. He should get close to 3,000 hits. If voters are set to appreciate a more diverse skillset due to a home run backlash, then Abreu could stand to benefit.
Michael Young
Young is working on his 6th 200-hit season. I don’t think any of his other statistics even matter after that. Voters will love themselves some Michael Young when his time for judgment comes.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Hush Money
Remember when Magglio Ordonez’s vesting option was a controversial topic earlier in the season? Well, I think the Tigers are hoping you don’t because—barring an abrupt release—he’s going to reach the escalators in his contract that will put the team on the hook for $18 million in 2010. Since the Tigers owe Mags at least $3 million no matter what (buyout clause), they’re looking at a net of a $15 million hit to the payroll. None of this would matter if Mags was worth the money. Anybody who has been watching Tigers baseball at any point since April knows that he is not. He had 54 doubles just two years ago. This year, he has only 24 extra-base hits. His OPS is .715. That’s lower than Ryan Raburn, Clete Thomas, Jeff Larish, Placido Polanco, and Marcus Thames. The combined salary of those five players is less than half of what Ordonez makes. He isn’t worth the $18 million he’s making this year and he isn’t worth the $15 million it’ll cost to eat his contract next season.
The Tigers are obviously aware of just how close they are to guaranteeing Ordonez’s services for another season. Twice during the season it appeared as though they were attempting to subtly—but, effectively—keep him from reaching the escalators. The first attempt came on June 18th when they announced that he would be benched indefinitely. Unfortunately, “indefinitely” meant just 4 games. The second attempt came when the Tigers announced that Ordonez would platoon with Clete Thomas in right field. Ordonez would start against lefties while Thomas would start against righties. Quick calculations at the time of the decision—July 8th—showed that such a platoon for the remainder of the season would’ve easily thwarted any chance that Ordonez would reach his escalators. This was another “indefinite” move and, unfortunately, this time “indefinite” meant just 10 days. The platoon inconspicuously ended on July 18th. Since then, Ordonez has started 17 of 22 games and played in 19 of 22.
The Tigers haven’t managed to separate themselves from the rest of the division—they were up two games on the Twins the day the “indefinite benching” was announced; two games on the White Sox the day the platoon was announced; and they’re just 2.5 games ahead of the White Sox today. As the end of the regular season comes increasingly closer and each game is scrutinized more and more, I can only guess that the front office doesn’t want to face the firing squad of Monday morning pitchers if they happen to lose the division with Ordonez—their $18 million hitter—riding the bench. Whether it’s the right decision or not, Dave Dombrowski will be second-guessed if that ends up happening. He may be protecting himself by going down “guns blazin’” so to speak—or at least appearing to be. Let’s look at it from the other side. If the Tigers miss the playoffs with Ordonez in the line-up everyday, the blame goes to Ordonez. Dombrowski avoids the criticism. Everything is kosher on the criticism front.
Hopefully, Dombrowski has valued “criticism avoidance” at $15 million because—barring an unexpected release—that’s what it’s going to cost him. The Tigers have 48 games remaining. Based on his plate appearance per start of 4.15 this season, Ordonez would only need to start 21 of those 48 games to achieve the 84 plate appearances necessary to reach 1,080 plate appearances over the last two seasons, or his vesting option. That means he needs to be on the bench in 27 of the final 48 games. For comparison, even with the equivalent of two separate “indefinite” benchings, Ordonez has only not started 25 games on the entire season.
Clearly, the Tigers can’t just bench Ordonez for the last month of the season. They were worried about public perception when they had every right to bench him mid-season. If they didn’t have the cojones to bench him when they had every reason to, they certainly aren’t going to now when it would most certainly be portrayed as a shameless maneuver to keep a guy from earning his money. The only other option is a flat-out release. But, that brings us back to DD protecting himself from criticism. If he releases Ordonez and the Tigers don’t make the playoffs, then every bottom-dweller with a keyboard will come out of their holes blaming Dombrowski for giving up on a guy who hit .363 two years ago. We live in a society of second-guessers. Even if the decision is—without a doubt—the best decision possible at the time, if the outcome isn’t “good”, then we criticize. That’s how it has always been and that’s how it will always be. Ordonez will reach his bonuses and the Tigers will take whatever criticism comes there way because it will be considerably more manageable than the alternative.
I’m irritated that Dombrowski got himself into this situation in the first place. There are plenty of solutions over a 162 game season to keep a struggling player from reaching 457 plate appearances. Instead, he appeared to bow to Scott Boras’ baseless ramblings by allowing Jim Leyland to plug Ordonez into the lineup for the bulk of the season. The excuse that will undoubtedly be bandied about as we approach the end of the season is that the Tigers need Ordonez if they’re going to have any change at the division. Part of that obviously goes to avoiding the criticism of releasing Ordonez and then missing the playoffs, but some of that sentiment is true. If Ordonez gets “hot” all of a sudden, the Tigers chances of making the playoffs go up exponentially. I’m not arguing that Ordonez should be benched now. It’s too late for that. I’m arguing that he should’ve been benched intermittently and consistently throughout the season. Dombrowski had the chance to relieve some pressure on a bloated 2010 payroll and he blew it.
The Tigers owe Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, and Dontrelle Willis a combined $34.5 million next season. As much as I hope all or any of those three get back to a competitive level; that is very likely to end up being dead money. If Ordonez repeats his performance next season—and there’s no reason to think he won’t—then the Tigers are up to $50 million in wasted money. Throw in $13 million for a brittle Carlos Guillen and you have $63 million tied up in five below average players. Keeping Ordonez from reaching his escalators wouldn’t solve everything but it would give the Tigers flexibility to address positions badly in need of upgrades. Instead, it looks like there won’t be room for significant change. Allowing Ordonez to reach his escalator makes stagnation the best case scenario for 2010. Sure, $50 million will come off the books following next season but how does that help the Tigers contend next year? How will that convince free agents that the Tigers are a contender? Just think of how damaging it was to the momentum the organization was building when it missed the playoffs following the World Series run in 2006. That run was virtually dismissed by the baseball community as a fluke. The Tigers need to show free agents that Detroit is a destination to contend for championships and that won't happen if there is a regression every other year. There are too many holes—and this team is too frustrating to watch—to expect a successful 2010 season without change. In a nod to Cubs fans, "I guess there's always the year after next year."
The Tigers are obviously aware of just how close they are to guaranteeing Ordonez’s services for another season. Twice during the season it appeared as though they were attempting to subtly—but, effectively—keep him from reaching the escalators. The first attempt came on June 18th when they announced that he would be benched indefinitely. Unfortunately, “indefinitely” meant just 4 games. The second attempt came when the Tigers announced that Ordonez would platoon with Clete Thomas in right field. Ordonez would start against lefties while Thomas would start against righties. Quick calculations at the time of the decision—July 8th—showed that such a platoon for the remainder of the season would’ve easily thwarted any chance that Ordonez would reach his escalators. This was another “indefinite” move and, unfortunately, this time “indefinite” meant just 10 days. The platoon inconspicuously ended on July 18th. Since then, Ordonez has started 17 of 22 games and played in 19 of 22.
The Tigers haven’t managed to separate themselves from the rest of the division—they were up two games on the Twins the day the “indefinite benching” was announced; two games on the White Sox the day the platoon was announced; and they’re just 2.5 games ahead of the White Sox today. As the end of the regular season comes increasingly closer and each game is scrutinized more and more, I can only guess that the front office doesn’t want to face the firing squad of Monday morning pitchers if they happen to lose the division with Ordonez—their $18 million hitter—riding the bench. Whether it’s the right decision or not, Dave Dombrowski will be second-guessed if that ends up happening. He may be protecting himself by going down “guns blazin’” so to speak—or at least appearing to be. Let’s look at it from the other side. If the Tigers miss the playoffs with Ordonez in the line-up everyday, the blame goes to Ordonez. Dombrowski avoids the criticism. Everything is kosher on the criticism front.
Hopefully, Dombrowski has valued “criticism avoidance” at $15 million because—barring an unexpected release—that’s what it’s going to cost him. The Tigers have 48 games remaining. Based on his plate appearance per start of 4.15 this season, Ordonez would only need to start 21 of those 48 games to achieve the 84 plate appearances necessary to reach 1,080 plate appearances over the last two seasons, or his vesting option. That means he needs to be on the bench in 27 of the final 48 games. For comparison, even with the equivalent of two separate “indefinite” benchings, Ordonez has only not started 25 games on the entire season.
Clearly, the Tigers can’t just bench Ordonez for the last month of the season. They were worried about public perception when they had every right to bench him mid-season. If they didn’t have the cojones to bench him when they had every reason to, they certainly aren’t going to now when it would most certainly be portrayed as a shameless maneuver to keep a guy from earning his money. The only other option is a flat-out release. But, that brings us back to DD protecting himself from criticism. If he releases Ordonez and the Tigers don’t make the playoffs, then every bottom-dweller with a keyboard will come out of their holes blaming Dombrowski for giving up on a guy who hit .363 two years ago. We live in a society of second-guessers. Even if the decision is—without a doubt—the best decision possible at the time, if the outcome isn’t “good”, then we criticize. That’s how it has always been and that’s how it will always be. Ordonez will reach his bonuses and the Tigers will take whatever criticism comes there way because it will be considerably more manageable than the alternative.
I’m irritated that Dombrowski got himself into this situation in the first place. There are plenty of solutions over a 162 game season to keep a struggling player from reaching 457 plate appearances. Instead, he appeared to bow to Scott Boras’ baseless ramblings by allowing Jim Leyland to plug Ordonez into the lineup for the bulk of the season. The excuse that will undoubtedly be bandied about as we approach the end of the season is that the Tigers need Ordonez if they’re going to have any change at the division. Part of that obviously goes to avoiding the criticism of releasing Ordonez and then missing the playoffs, but some of that sentiment is true. If Ordonez gets “hot” all of a sudden, the Tigers chances of making the playoffs go up exponentially. I’m not arguing that Ordonez should be benched now. It’s too late for that. I’m arguing that he should’ve been benched intermittently and consistently throughout the season. Dombrowski had the chance to relieve some pressure on a bloated 2010 payroll and he blew it.
The Tigers owe Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, and Dontrelle Willis a combined $34.5 million next season. As much as I hope all or any of those three get back to a competitive level; that is very likely to end up being dead money. If Ordonez repeats his performance next season—and there’s no reason to think he won’t—then the Tigers are up to $50 million in wasted money. Throw in $13 million for a brittle Carlos Guillen and you have $63 million tied up in five below average players. Keeping Ordonez from reaching his escalators wouldn’t solve everything but it would give the Tigers flexibility to address positions badly in need of upgrades. Instead, it looks like there won’t be room for significant change. Allowing Ordonez to reach his escalator makes stagnation the best case scenario for 2010. Sure, $50 million will come off the books following next season but how does that help the Tigers contend next year? How will that convince free agents that the Tigers are a contender? Just think of how damaging it was to the momentum the organization was building when it missed the playoffs following the World Series run in 2006. That run was virtually dismissed by the baseball community as a fluke. The Tigers need to show free agents that Detroit is a destination to contend for championships and that won't happen if there is a regression every other year. There are too many holes—and this team is too frustrating to watch—to expect a successful 2010 season without change. In a nod to Cubs fans, "I guess there's always the year after next year."
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Tigers Top Prospects 2009
The last few posts relating to Adam Dunn and the value of “top prospects” got me thinking about who exactly were the Tigers top MLB prospects. If you’re looking for the easy way out, you can dial up a Google search to the tune of “Detroit Tigers top prospects 2009” and you’ll get a few lists from some reputable sources. The “easy way out” isn’t a bad option but there are some minor drawbacks. First, those lists were formulated at the end (or beginning depending on your definition) of the year well before any statistics in 2009 were accumulated. Those outdated lists still might give an accurate depiction of who some of the top prospects are but things change considerably in four months of baseball. As far as I can tell, there is not a recent free list that has taken into account to-date statistics. The other problem is that even when you’re dealing with a reputable publication like Baseball America, there are going to be oversights and/ or mistakes. For instance, when Baseball America put together its list of the top ten Tigers prospects back in November; it neglected to include Ryan Strieby. Strieby was the Detroit’s MLB Player of the Year after absolutely destroying the Florida State League in 2008. So, I figured I’d bridge the gap between end-of-season lists while hopefully avoiding silly things like forgetting Ryan Strieby.
Three prospects who would’ve undoubtedly been in the top 15 if it they weren’t so damn good are Rick Porcello, Ryan Perry, and Alex Avila. Fortunately, they’ve proven to be such stellar prospects that they are all helping the Tigers contend for the AL Central Division Title. For the record, Porcello would’ve been #1; Perry #3; and Avila #6. Real quick before I get started…This list is based on a number of factors including potential, progression, age, and performance. This isn’t about who is most ready for a call-up or who is the better player right now. It’s more about ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling. Also, I capped the age at 25. Anyone who turns 26 this calendar year was ineligible. So, without further ado, here are the Tigers top 15 prospects as of mid-year 2009.
#1 Casey Crosby, LHP
With the promotion of Porcello and Perry to the big leagues, Crosby is easily the top prospect in the organization. At 6’5, Crosby is a power-lefty who has devastated the Midwest League (A) with his 95-97 MPH heat to the tune of 10.4 SO/9 and a 2.65 ERA. The most encouraging part of Crosby’s performance is that he is fresh off a lost season as a result of Tommy John surgery. Without the elbow surgery, Crosby could very well be pitching at Erie (AA) this season with an eye towards the Opening Day roster in 2010. Instead, he’ll likely split time in ’10 between Lakeland (A+) and Erie (AA) with a 2010 call-up a possibility.
#2 Ryan Strieby, LF
There was an article written recently calling Ryan Strieby the most underrated prospect in all the minor leagues. I can’t say I know enough about other organizations to unequivocally call Strieby the most underrated in the minor leagues but I would bet that he is near the top of the list. I’m not sure how Baseball America can justify leaving the Tigers Minor League POY off of their top ten list. Strieby is easily the top hitter in the organization. He is an Adam Dunn-type lefty with a booming bat. At 22, he hammered the Florida State League last season with 29 home runs and 94 RBIs and that includes 26 missed games due to injury. Strieby was even better this season at Erie (AA). Through 76 games, he posted a .982 OPS and a .421 OBP. He was well on his way to a second consecutive POY award until he was again shutdown by the wrist injury that halted his ’08 campaign. The long-term prognosis for his injury is good which means Strieby isn’t too far away from a call-up. The Tigers are keenly aware of Strieby’s potential. They have moved him from first base—occupied by Miguel Cabrera for the next infinity years—to left field in an attempt to get him to “the show” in a more expedited manner. Strieby might be the best Tigers hitting prospect of my lifetime. Considering how truly horrid the system has been for 20+ seasons, that isn’t saying as much as it probably seems.
#3 Jacob Turner, RHP
Turner hasn’t thrown a single pitch for the organization. In fact, he’s not even officially a member of the organization, yet. The Tigers and his agent—drum roll, please—Scott Boras, are still ironing out the details. However, it’s only a matter of time. Turner was the 9th overall pick in June’s MLB Draft. He is an 18-year old high school phenom who reminds me a little of Rick Porcello although not quite the talent. Turner throws in the mid-to-upper 90’s and, like Porcello, has a solid delivery. He will likely spend two years destroying the minors and could be ready to contribute on Opening Day 2012.
#4 Scott Sizemore, 2B
The Tigers have to be relieved that Sizemore has progressed as well as he has. As an aging team up the middle, the Tigers had hoped that Sizemore and Cale Iorg were the heir apparents at second and short. While Iorg hasn’t quite materialized, Sizemore sure has. He has flown through the system in just three seasons. He started ’09 at Erie (AA) where he promptly hammered the league with a .937 OPS through 59 games. That earned him a mid-year promotion to Toledo (AAA) where he has done much of the same. Unlike most of Detroit’s hitting prospects, Sizemore has excellent plate discipline. His walk to strikeout ratio is a refreshing 54:77 this season. He is an excellent athlete who can hit for power (15 home runs in ’09) and steal bases (16 stolen bases). I’m always skeptical when it comes to Tigers hitting prospects but Sizemore might actually pan out. He is the minor league version of Brian Roberts. Anything close to that in the majors would be a godsend for an aging ballclub.
#5 Wilkin Ramirez, LF
Ramirez is an interesting cat. He has slowly made his way through the organization after signing in 2003 as a 17-year old. He finally made it to Toledo (AAA) this year where he has continued the trend of performing just well enough to tantalize without actually putting together an impressive season. His best assets aside from his youth are his power/speed combo. He has 13 home runs to go along with 31 stolen bases this year. However, unlike Sizemore, his plate discipline is atrocious. He struck out 149 times last season and he’s on pace to obliterate that mark this season. The worst part is that he walked just 44 times last season. He would’ve been an intriguing prospect at 3B but his defensive liabilities forced the Tigers to move him to the OF where he currently plays in LF. That just happens to be the position that Ryan Strieby was switched to. Ramirez should be prime trade bait while he is still only 23. The worst thing that could happen is for the Tigers to hold onto him and allow his value to plummet—like they did with Jeff Larish—since his future is unlikely in Detroit.
#6 Cody Satterwhite, RHP
Clearly, Dave Dombrowski and Al Avila understood and likely shared fan's frustrations at the rollercoaster nature of the Todd Jones/Fernando Rodney bullpen. DD and AA went insane on power relievers in the 2008 Draft so much so that four of the next seven players on this list are power relievers from the ’08 draft. Satterwhite isn’t quite at Perry’s level command-wise but he has every bit the arm. Satterwhite’s fastball blazes up to 99. That has resulted in an impressive and consistent SO/9 of 10 at each stop in the system. He is currently at Erie (AA) where he boasts a 3.25 ERA. Unfortunately, it appears that his command is keeping him from fast-tracking to the Tigers bullpen. As consistent as his SO/9 has been, his WHIP has been equally consistent above 1.50. His BB/9 is startlingly high at 5+. I hate to think that Satterwhite is the second coming of Matt Anderson but that’s exactly what he’ll be unless he gets the command thing figured out.
#7 Robert Weinhardt, RHP
Weinhardt is currently at Erie (AA) with Satterwhite where he has outperformed him. Satterwhite gets the ever-so-slight edge because he is more than a year younger than Weinhardt and has an extra 5 MPH on his heater. Weinhardt, though, may project to be a more reliable prospect. Whereas Satterwhite struggles immensely with his command, Weinhardt doesn’t in the least. His WHIP in 89 minor league innings is a paltry 1.04. It’s also evident that he knows how to pitch since his SO/9 is every bit the same as Satterwhite’s despite the 5 MPH disadvantage with the heater. Based on his substantial advantage in command, I would think Weinhardt makes it to Detroit before Satterwhite.
#8 Casper Wells, CF
Wells is another Tigers prospect who should be trade-bait. He is a 25-year old CF. The problem for Wells is that Curtis Granderson is a 28-year old CF. Wells is a rising prospect who has unexpectedly peppered the Eastern League over the last two years with a .900+ OPS. He hit 27 home runs in 2008 to go along with 90 runs in just 125 games. Wells isn’t a high-ceiling prospect because—despite his power—he struggles to make contact. His K:BB ratio is an unflattering 2:1 and he is a .250-hitter. Hopefully the Tigers can find a trading partner who is intrigued by his power; otherwise he is on his way to Larish territory.
#9 Charlie Furbush, LHP
Furbush is probably the second most underrated prospect in the system. Like Crosby, he missed an entire season due to Tommy John surgery. Like Crosby, he has bounced back with impressive results. His numbers on the season are decent. He has a 3.49 ERA in 20 starts. However, it’s what he has done recently that is cause for excitement. In his last nine starts at Lakeland (A+) he has a 2.14 ERA in 46.3 innings. He has 45 K’s to only nine walks. Those numbers are very similar to what Crosby has put up on the season. If the last two months are any indication, Furbush is back on track as one of the top pitching prospects in the organization. He gives the Tigers their best 1-2 lefty combo in the minors in a long time. Crosby is more than two years older than Furbush so he is clearly the better prospect. Just don’t be surprised to see Furbush blow up the way Strieby blew up last season.
#10 Brett Jacobson, RHP
Jacobson is another big, power arm from the ’08 draft class. He works in the mid-90s but doesn’t have the superhuman strikeout rates that Satterwhite and Weinhardt own. His second year in the system hasn’t been quite as impressive as his first where he posted a 1.52 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP at W. Michigan (A). His BB/9 has nearly doubled with the promotion to Lakeland (A+) and his K/9 has also dropped off. His WHIP is up near 1.27. Jacobson is only 22 and certainly has the makeup to contribute in the bullpen. However, considering there are three players ahead of him from the same draft class with the same bullpen aspirations, Jacobson might be a good candidate to be traded.
#11 Alfredo Figaro, RHP
For an undrafted free agent, Figaro flew threw the Tigers system going from Oneonta (A-) to Detroit in just two years. His first start in the majors was a good one resulting in his first major league victory. After a horrible second start, he was placed on the DL with a wrist injury. His minor league numbers didn’t necessarily suggest that he was going to get spot starts in 2009 so that should indicate how highly the Tigers think of him.
#12 Scott Green, RHP
Green and Jacobson are about as interchangeable as Satterwhite and Weinhardt. Jacobson gets the edge because he is a year younger and at the same level. Like the other four power relievers from the ’08 draft, Green has a mid-90’s+ heater. He is the biggest of the bunch at 6’8 but he also might have the most suspect command of the group. He currently owns a 1.56 WHIP at Lakeland. Green certainly wont be seeing any action with Detroit in crucial moments until he gets that number worked out.
#13 Brennan Boesch, RF
Boesch has to be the surprise offensive performer for 2009. The third round pick in 2006 underwhelmed in his first three years in the system. However, 2009 has been much kinder. Boesch has an .827 OPS at Erie (AA) which is almost 150 points higher than what he posted at W. Michigan and Lakeland. He leads the Eastern League with 24 home runs; he’s also 3rd in RBIs. The problem with Boesch is that he has epically bad plate discipline. He has 97 strikeouts to just 21 walks at Erie. Not surprisingly, his OBP is a woeful .302. Boesch has certainly shown that he has a power stroke. It’s unlikely that a BB:K ratio that abysmal is a fixable problem. The Tigers should try to capitalize on his power potential the way they did with Matt Joyce. Boesch won’t likely fetch a pitcher the caliber of Edwin Jackson but he could certainly bolster a package.
#14 Cale Iorg, SS
Iorg was a 6th round draft pick in 2007. While that doesn’t appear to indicate anything special, the Tigers liked Iorg so much that they threw down a $1.5 million signing bonus to keep him from returning to school at Alabama. Unfortunately, Iorg hasn’t lived up to the contract. He currently sports a .628 OPS at Erie with a K:BB ratio that makes Brennan Boesch look like Albert Pujols. In fairness to Iorg, he left school on a two-year Mormon mission before the Tigers drafted him and then promptly bribed him to leave school. That absence from baseball may account for Iorg’s initial struggles but this is his third year with the organization and the only thing to talk about are his K-totals. Iorg will be 24 in September. That’s getting up there for a guy who hasn’t shown much. The scouting reports universally praise Iorg as a high-ceiling talent. Next year will certainly be pivotal for Iorg’s future as a Tiger.
#15 Brayan Villareal, RHP
Villareal has been “lights out” at W. Michigan (A) this season sporting a 1.82 ERA in 79.1 innings. His SO/9 is 10.1 to go along with a 1.04 WHIP. The only blip on his resume is an unnerving 2.9 BB/9. Villareal has a mid-90s+ fastball which will become even more lethal if he can get his command to improve. It’ll be interesting to see how Villareal is able to navigate a reliever-heavy system. Had the Tigers not devoted nearly the entire 2008 draft to power relievers, Villareal could’ve seen big league action by 2011. Instead, he’ll likely turn into a valuable trade commodity.
Best of the rest (in no particular order): Luke Putkonen, Andrew Oliver, Brandon Hamilton, Josh Rainwater, Lauren Gagnier, Deik Scram, Tyler Stohr, Luis Marte, Anthony Shawler, Zach Simons, Will Ryhmes, Duane Below, Wade Gaynor, Brandon Douglas, Brooks Brown, Andrew Dirks, and Dusty Ryan.
The Tigers minor league system has been blasted by many of the minor league publications for having an underwhelming collection of talent. The fact that they weren’t able to get anything done for a bat at the trade deadline might indicate that the rest of MLB feels the same way. However, I think the system is actually in much better shape than it ever was before DD arrived. Crosby is a high-ceiling lefty. Strieby is a legitimate power-hitter. Sizemore appears to be a major league caliber second-baseman. Alex Avila looks like the catcher of the future. Ryan Perry looks like a future closer. Rick Porcello is a front-end starter. For the first time in many, many years, the Tigers are producing bona fide starters out of the system. Two or three years ago, a top 15 list of Tigers prospects would’ve featured a bunch of guys who never made it to the big leagues. I have a feeling that we won’t be able to say the same about this list two or three years from now. I’m not saying any of these guys are stars. It just looks like the Tigers are finally going to be able to fill some holes from within the system.
Three prospects who would’ve undoubtedly been in the top 15 if it they weren’t so damn good are Rick Porcello, Ryan Perry, and Alex Avila. Fortunately, they’ve proven to be such stellar prospects that they are all helping the Tigers contend for the AL Central Division Title. For the record, Porcello would’ve been #1; Perry #3; and Avila #6. Real quick before I get started…This list is based on a number of factors including potential, progression, age, and performance. This isn’t about who is most ready for a call-up or who is the better player right now. It’s more about ceiling and likelihood of reaching that ceiling. Also, I capped the age at 25. Anyone who turns 26 this calendar year was ineligible. So, without further ado, here are the Tigers top 15 prospects as of mid-year 2009.
#1 Casey Crosby, LHP
With the promotion of Porcello and Perry to the big leagues, Crosby is easily the top prospect in the organization. At 6’5, Crosby is a power-lefty who has devastated the Midwest League (A) with his 95-97 MPH heat to the tune of 10.4 SO/9 and a 2.65 ERA. The most encouraging part of Crosby’s performance is that he is fresh off a lost season as a result of Tommy John surgery. Without the elbow surgery, Crosby could very well be pitching at Erie (AA) this season with an eye towards the Opening Day roster in 2010. Instead, he’ll likely split time in ’10 between Lakeland (A+) and Erie (AA) with a 2010 call-up a possibility.
#2 Ryan Strieby, LF
There was an article written recently calling Ryan Strieby the most underrated prospect in all the minor leagues. I can’t say I know enough about other organizations to unequivocally call Strieby the most underrated in the minor leagues but I would bet that he is near the top of the list. I’m not sure how Baseball America can justify leaving the Tigers Minor League POY off of their top ten list. Strieby is easily the top hitter in the organization. He is an Adam Dunn-type lefty with a booming bat. At 22, he hammered the Florida State League last season with 29 home runs and 94 RBIs and that includes 26 missed games due to injury. Strieby was even better this season at Erie (AA). Through 76 games, he posted a .982 OPS and a .421 OBP. He was well on his way to a second consecutive POY award until he was again shutdown by the wrist injury that halted his ’08 campaign. The long-term prognosis for his injury is good which means Strieby isn’t too far away from a call-up. The Tigers are keenly aware of Strieby’s potential. They have moved him from first base—occupied by Miguel Cabrera for the next infinity years—to left field in an attempt to get him to “the show” in a more expedited manner. Strieby might be the best Tigers hitting prospect of my lifetime. Considering how truly horrid the system has been for 20+ seasons, that isn’t saying as much as it probably seems.
#3 Jacob Turner, RHP
Turner hasn’t thrown a single pitch for the organization. In fact, he’s not even officially a member of the organization, yet. The Tigers and his agent—drum roll, please—Scott Boras, are still ironing out the details. However, it’s only a matter of time. Turner was the 9th overall pick in June’s MLB Draft. He is an 18-year old high school phenom who reminds me a little of Rick Porcello although not quite the talent. Turner throws in the mid-to-upper 90’s and, like Porcello, has a solid delivery. He will likely spend two years destroying the minors and could be ready to contribute on Opening Day 2012.
#4 Scott Sizemore, 2B
The Tigers have to be relieved that Sizemore has progressed as well as he has. As an aging team up the middle, the Tigers had hoped that Sizemore and Cale Iorg were the heir apparents at second and short. While Iorg hasn’t quite materialized, Sizemore sure has. He has flown through the system in just three seasons. He started ’09 at Erie (AA) where he promptly hammered the league with a .937 OPS through 59 games. That earned him a mid-year promotion to Toledo (AAA) where he has done much of the same. Unlike most of Detroit’s hitting prospects, Sizemore has excellent plate discipline. His walk to strikeout ratio is a refreshing 54:77 this season. He is an excellent athlete who can hit for power (15 home runs in ’09) and steal bases (16 stolen bases). I’m always skeptical when it comes to Tigers hitting prospects but Sizemore might actually pan out. He is the minor league version of Brian Roberts. Anything close to that in the majors would be a godsend for an aging ballclub.
#5 Wilkin Ramirez, LF
Ramirez is an interesting cat. He has slowly made his way through the organization after signing in 2003 as a 17-year old. He finally made it to Toledo (AAA) this year where he has continued the trend of performing just well enough to tantalize without actually putting together an impressive season. His best assets aside from his youth are his power/speed combo. He has 13 home runs to go along with 31 stolen bases this year. However, unlike Sizemore, his plate discipline is atrocious. He struck out 149 times last season and he’s on pace to obliterate that mark this season. The worst part is that he walked just 44 times last season. He would’ve been an intriguing prospect at 3B but his defensive liabilities forced the Tigers to move him to the OF where he currently plays in LF. That just happens to be the position that Ryan Strieby was switched to. Ramirez should be prime trade bait while he is still only 23. The worst thing that could happen is for the Tigers to hold onto him and allow his value to plummet—like they did with Jeff Larish—since his future is unlikely in Detroit.
#6 Cody Satterwhite, RHP
Clearly, Dave Dombrowski and Al Avila understood and likely shared fan's frustrations at the rollercoaster nature of the Todd Jones/Fernando Rodney bullpen. DD and AA went insane on power relievers in the 2008 Draft so much so that four of the next seven players on this list are power relievers from the ’08 draft. Satterwhite isn’t quite at Perry’s level command-wise but he has every bit the arm. Satterwhite’s fastball blazes up to 99. That has resulted in an impressive and consistent SO/9 of 10 at each stop in the system. He is currently at Erie (AA) where he boasts a 3.25 ERA. Unfortunately, it appears that his command is keeping him from fast-tracking to the Tigers bullpen. As consistent as his SO/9 has been, his WHIP has been equally consistent above 1.50. His BB/9 is startlingly high at 5+. I hate to think that Satterwhite is the second coming of Matt Anderson but that’s exactly what he’ll be unless he gets the command thing figured out.
#7 Robert Weinhardt, RHP
Weinhardt is currently at Erie (AA) with Satterwhite where he has outperformed him. Satterwhite gets the ever-so-slight edge because he is more than a year younger than Weinhardt and has an extra 5 MPH on his heater. Weinhardt, though, may project to be a more reliable prospect. Whereas Satterwhite struggles immensely with his command, Weinhardt doesn’t in the least. His WHIP in 89 minor league innings is a paltry 1.04. It’s also evident that he knows how to pitch since his SO/9 is every bit the same as Satterwhite’s despite the 5 MPH disadvantage with the heater. Based on his substantial advantage in command, I would think Weinhardt makes it to Detroit before Satterwhite.
#8 Casper Wells, CF
Wells is another Tigers prospect who should be trade-bait. He is a 25-year old CF. The problem for Wells is that Curtis Granderson is a 28-year old CF. Wells is a rising prospect who has unexpectedly peppered the Eastern League over the last two years with a .900+ OPS. He hit 27 home runs in 2008 to go along with 90 runs in just 125 games. Wells isn’t a high-ceiling prospect because—despite his power—he struggles to make contact. His K:BB ratio is an unflattering 2:1 and he is a .250-hitter. Hopefully the Tigers can find a trading partner who is intrigued by his power; otherwise he is on his way to Larish territory.
#9 Charlie Furbush, LHP
Furbush is probably the second most underrated prospect in the system. Like Crosby, he missed an entire season due to Tommy John surgery. Like Crosby, he has bounced back with impressive results. His numbers on the season are decent. He has a 3.49 ERA in 20 starts. However, it’s what he has done recently that is cause for excitement. In his last nine starts at Lakeland (A+) he has a 2.14 ERA in 46.3 innings. He has 45 K’s to only nine walks. Those numbers are very similar to what Crosby has put up on the season. If the last two months are any indication, Furbush is back on track as one of the top pitching prospects in the organization. He gives the Tigers their best 1-2 lefty combo in the minors in a long time. Crosby is more than two years older than Furbush so he is clearly the better prospect. Just don’t be surprised to see Furbush blow up the way Strieby blew up last season.
#10 Brett Jacobson, RHP
Jacobson is another big, power arm from the ’08 draft class. He works in the mid-90s but doesn’t have the superhuman strikeout rates that Satterwhite and Weinhardt own. His second year in the system hasn’t been quite as impressive as his first where he posted a 1.52 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP at W. Michigan (A). His BB/9 has nearly doubled with the promotion to Lakeland (A+) and his K/9 has also dropped off. His WHIP is up near 1.27. Jacobson is only 22 and certainly has the makeup to contribute in the bullpen. However, considering there are three players ahead of him from the same draft class with the same bullpen aspirations, Jacobson might be a good candidate to be traded.
#11 Alfredo Figaro, RHP
For an undrafted free agent, Figaro flew threw the Tigers system going from Oneonta (A-) to Detroit in just two years. His first start in the majors was a good one resulting in his first major league victory. After a horrible second start, he was placed on the DL with a wrist injury. His minor league numbers didn’t necessarily suggest that he was going to get spot starts in 2009 so that should indicate how highly the Tigers think of him.
#12 Scott Green, RHP
Green and Jacobson are about as interchangeable as Satterwhite and Weinhardt. Jacobson gets the edge because he is a year younger and at the same level. Like the other four power relievers from the ’08 draft, Green has a mid-90’s+ heater. He is the biggest of the bunch at 6’8 but he also might have the most suspect command of the group. He currently owns a 1.56 WHIP at Lakeland. Green certainly wont be seeing any action with Detroit in crucial moments until he gets that number worked out.
#13 Brennan Boesch, RF
Boesch has to be the surprise offensive performer for 2009. The third round pick in 2006 underwhelmed in his first three years in the system. However, 2009 has been much kinder. Boesch has an .827 OPS at Erie (AA) which is almost 150 points higher than what he posted at W. Michigan and Lakeland. He leads the Eastern League with 24 home runs; he’s also 3rd in RBIs. The problem with Boesch is that he has epically bad plate discipline. He has 97 strikeouts to just 21 walks at Erie. Not surprisingly, his OBP is a woeful .302. Boesch has certainly shown that he has a power stroke. It’s unlikely that a BB:K ratio that abysmal is a fixable problem. The Tigers should try to capitalize on his power potential the way they did with Matt Joyce. Boesch won’t likely fetch a pitcher the caliber of Edwin Jackson but he could certainly bolster a package.
#14 Cale Iorg, SS
Iorg was a 6th round draft pick in 2007. While that doesn’t appear to indicate anything special, the Tigers liked Iorg so much that they threw down a $1.5 million signing bonus to keep him from returning to school at Alabama. Unfortunately, Iorg hasn’t lived up to the contract. He currently sports a .628 OPS at Erie with a K:BB ratio that makes Brennan Boesch look like Albert Pujols. In fairness to Iorg, he left school on a two-year Mormon mission before the Tigers drafted him and then promptly bribed him to leave school. That absence from baseball may account for Iorg’s initial struggles but this is his third year with the organization and the only thing to talk about are his K-totals. Iorg will be 24 in September. That’s getting up there for a guy who hasn’t shown much. The scouting reports universally praise Iorg as a high-ceiling talent. Next year will certainly be pivotal for Iorg’s future as a Tiger.
#15 Brayan Villareal, RHP
Villareal has been “lights out” at W. Michigan (A) this season sporting a 1.82 ERA in 79.1 innings. His SO/9 is 10.1 to go along with a 1.04 WHIP. The only blip on his resume is an unnerving 2.9 BB/9. Villareal has a mid-90s+ fastball which will become even more lethal if he can get his command to improve. It’ll be interesting to see how Villareal is able to navigate a reliever-heavy system. Had the Tigers not devoted nearly the entire 2008 draft to power relievers, Villareal could’ve seen big league action by 2011. Instead, he’ll likely turn into a valuable trade commodity.
Best of the rest (in no particular order): Luke Putkonen, Andrew Oliver, Brandon Hamilton, Josh Rainwater, Lauren Gagnier, Deik Scram, Tyler Stohr, Luis Marte, Anthony Shawler, Zach Simons, Will Ryhmes, Duane Below, Wade Gaynor, Brandon Douglas, Brooks Brown, Andrew Dirks, and Dusty Ryan.
The Tigers minor league system has been blasted by many of the minor league publications for having an underwhelming collection of talent. The fact that they weren’t able to get anything done for a bat at the trade deadline might indicate that the rest of MLB feels the same way. However, I think the system is actually in much better shape than it ever was before DD arrived. Crosby is a high-ceiling lefty. Strieby is a legitimate power-hitter. Sizemore appears to be a major league caliber second-baseman. Alex Avila looks like the catcher of the future. Ryan Perry looks like a future closer. Rick Porcello is a front-end starter. For the first time in many, many years, the Tigers are producing bona fide starters out of the system. Two or three years ago, a top 15 list of Tigers prospects would’ve featured a bunch of guys who never made it to the big leagues. I have a feeling that we won’t be able to say the same about this list two or three years from now. I’m not saying any of these guys are stars. It just looks like the Tigers are finally going to be able to fill some holes from within the system.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
The Chronic (what?) cles of Canseco
Jose Canseco made a claim last week that was so not shocking, I immediately fell asleep after reading it. Well, that didn’t really happen but if you’re shocked that there might be a steroid-user in the MLB Hall of Fame, then you need to watch more TV. Obviously, since Canseco won’t reveal who the mystery user is, there is no way to know for certain if he’s telling the truth or simply metaphorically extending his middle-finger to the entire baseball community. Canseco’s credibility on steroid-users has been well-documented. However, let’s not forget that this is Jose Canseco we’re talking about. He claimed in his book that he ran a 40 yard dash in 3.9 seconds. That would make him the fastest person in the history of the world. He allegedly tried to extort money from Magglio Ordonez by threatening to accuse him of steroid-use in his book. He also estimated that 85% of MLB was using steroids which is only slightly less absurd than the 600 foot home runs that he has claimed to have hit. That’s not even possible according to this article. He has been arrested numerous times and despite being the great tattletale of the steroid-era, let’s not forget that he was an egregious cheater. So, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could be lying when he says there is a “user” in the Hall of Fame. In fact, I can’t think of a better way for Canseco to get back at MLB than to soil its most sacred establishment.
However, Canseco has accused players of using steroids time and time again and he has been proven right time and time again. For whatever reason, Canseco seems totally incapable of telling the truth except when he is talking about steroid-users. I suppose that makes his claim of a “user” in the HOF credible. If he is telling the truth, then it should be pretty easy to narrow down the list of candidates to a numbered few based on the information that we have at our disposal. For instance, we know that Canseco played from 1985-2001. We know that the vast majority of players who he has “outed” have been former teammates. We also know that Canseco has almost exclusively ratted-out position players with thick frames. Using this information, the list of potential culprits shrinks to the size of Canseco’s steroid-reduced family jewels. So, let’s get to the deducing…
I am confident that the player Jose Canseco is speaking of is one of the 17 Hall of Famers who played during the 90’s::
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Cal Ripken Jr. 81-01
Tony Gwynn 82-01
Ryne Sandberg 81-94 and 96-97
Wade Boggs 82-99
Paul Molitor 78-98
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Eddie Murray 77-97
Gary Carter 74-92
Ozzie Smith 78-96
Dave Winfield 73-88 and 90-95
Kirby Puckett 84-95
Carlton Fisk 69 and 71-93
Robin Yount 74-93
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
George Brett 73-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
As I stated earlier, Canseco likes to rat out former teammates. Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, Ivan Rodriguez, Mark McGwire, Jason Giambi, and Roger Clemens are examples of this. Five former teammates of Canseco are on this list. They include; Rickey Henderson, Wade Boggs, Dennis Eckersley, Goose Gossage, and Nolan Ryan. Because they had the misfortune of playing with Canseco, they warrant greater consideration.
There are a few players on the list who can probably be eliminated right away. I highly doubt that either Tony Gwynn, Ozzie Smith, or Kirby Puckett used steroids. Gwynn and Puckett were pudgy, singles-hitters. Smith was a slick fielder with no power. If any of the three used, it would’ve been Puckett since he was stocky and had more power than Gywnn and Smith. Still, Puckett’s physique certainly was not that of a typical steroid-user nor was his power.
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Cal Ripken Jr. 81-01
Tony Gwynn 82-01
Ryne Sandberg 81-94 and 96-97
Wade Boggs 82-99
Paul Molitor 78-98
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Eddie Murray 77-97
Gary Carter 74-92
Ozzie Smith 78-96
Dave Winfield 73-88 and 90-95
Kirby Puckett 84-95
Carlton Fisk 69 and 71-93
Robin Yount 74-93
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
George Brett 73-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
Although there have been documented cases of steroid use in MLB in the 80’s, all of the players Canseco has accused so far have played from the mid-90’s and beyond. It’s unlikely that a player who didn’t make it to the mid-90’s would be our “user.” So, that eliminates Gary Carter and Carlton Fisk—two catchers who saw their careers precipitously decline as one would expect from aging backstops. We can also eliminate George Brett and Robin Yount. All four retired in either 1992 or 1993.
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Cal Ripken Jr. 81-01
Tony Gwynn 82-01
Ryne Sandberg 81-94 and 96-97
Wade Boggs 82-99
Paul Molitor 78-98
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Eddie Murray 77-97
Gary Carter 74-92
Ozzie Smith 78-96
Dave Winfield 73-88 and 90-95
Kirby Puckett 84-95
Carlton Fisk 69 and 71-93
Robin Yount 74-93
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
George Brett 73-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
Both Eddie Murray and Dave Winfield entered baseball in the 70’s. By the time the mid-90’s rolled around, these guys had done their damage. Their career numbers declined heavily into the mid 90’s. If they were using steroids, it certainly wasn’t showing.
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Cal Ripken Jr. 81-01
Tony Gwynn 82-01
Ryne Sandberg 81-94 and 96-97
Wade Boggs 82-99
Paul Molitor 78-98
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Eddie Murray 77-97
Gary Carter 74-92
Ozzie Smith 78-96
Dave Winfield 73-88 and 90-95
Kirby Puckett 84-95
Carlton Fisk 69 and 71-93
Robin Yount 74-93
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
George Brett 73-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
Ryne Sandberg and Paul Molitor seem to be unlikely candidates. Neither was much of a home run threat besides a couple big-stick years by Ryno. Neither looked like they took steroids. Sandberg’s career dovetailed significantly after 1992. Molitor was the same steady singles-hitter for virtually his entire career. Cal Ripken Jr. has received some speculative ink because of his Iron Man status. The theory there is that taking steroids would’ve helped him play in 2,632 consecutive games. There are two holes in that theory: 1). Steroids increase the risk of injury and 2). Ripken was never more than an average hitter after 1991.
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Cal Ripken Jr. 81-01
Tony Gwynn 82-01
Ryne Sandberg 81-94 and 96-97
Wade Boggs 82-99
Paul Molitor 78-98
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Eddie Murray 77-97
Gary Carter 74-92
Ozzie Smith 78-96
Dave Winfield 73-88 and 90-95
Kirby Puckett 84-95
Carlton Fisk 69 and 71-93
Robin Yount 74-93
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
George Brett 73-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
At first glance, Nolan Ryan’s ability to throw 100 MPH-gas at 46 might raise some suspicions. If Roger Clemens—the closest thing we have seen to Ryan with respect to age and velocity—is any indication, then Ryan may have indeed had some pharmaceutical assistance. However, there are four factors that make it unlikely that Nolan Ryan is the culprit; 1). He was a pitcher which does not fit Canseco's expertise, 2). He retired before the steroid boon of the mid-90’s, 3). The players Canseco accused of steroid-use in Texas when he was Ryan's teammate were all Latin American. I get the impression that 46-year old Nolan Ryan wasn't hanging with Canseco, Rafael Palmeiro, Juan Gonzalez, and Pudge Rodriguez. 4). It has been 16 years since Canseco and Ryan were teammates and 10 years since Ryan was elected to the Hall of Fame. Canseco has had plenty of time to drop his “bomb” about a steroid-user in the HOF. The fact that he didn’t likely indicates that Ryan isn’t the guy. For the same reasons it appears safe to eliminate both Dennis Eckersley and Goose Gossage. Eck was a skin and bones relief pitcher. Gossage was 40 years old and barely managed 40 innings during his time with Canseco. Neither would appear to be steroid-users.
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Cal Ripken Jr. 81-01
Tony Gwynn 82-01
Ryne Sandberg 81-94 and 96-97
Wade Boggs 82-99
Paul Molitor 78-98
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Eddie Murray 77-97
Gary Carter 74-92
Ozzie Smith 78-96
Dave Winfield 73-88 and 90-95
Kirby Puckett 84-95
Carlton Fisk 69 and 71-93
Robin Yount 74-93
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
George Brett 73-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
The only two left are Rickey Henderson and Wade Boggs. Boggs only played one season with Canseco and it was his last as major leaguer. He very likely only played an 18th season just to reach the 3,000-hit milestone. Boggs was one of the great singles hitters in baseball history. The idea of him taking steroids in what was obviously his last season at 41 doesn’t make a lot of sense.
That leaves Rickey Henderson. I don’t think the timing of Canseco’s “bombshell” is coincidental. These claims of a “user in the Hall of Fame" are brand spankin’ new and weren’t made until Rickey Henderson was inducted into the HOF just a few weeks ago.. Canseco isn’t one to keep his mouth zipped. If this is something he could’ve said before, he likely would’ve said it. Henderson was a teammate of Canseco’s from 1989-1992. That is the time period in which Canseco claims to have injected Mark McGwire with steroids. Henderson was a strong player. His legs and upper body were thick. He certainly wouldn’t pass for Ozzie Smith’s stunt double.
If it does turn out to be Rickey Henderson, it would be quite ironic that even when Canseco tried to do something noble—in this case, protecting the identity and subsequent legacy of a former teammate—he failed miserably. It doesn’t take long to narrow down the list of potential suspects. I’m pretty sure he didn’t think that far ahead but I bet Rickey Henderson wishes he did.
Note: Canseco played with both Reggie Jackson and Don Sutton--Hall of Famers who retired in '87 and '88, respectively--as a member of the A's for one season each. Sutton played for the A's in Canseco's rookie year. Jackson retired after one unproductive season as Canseco's teammate. While anything is possible, neither played long enough to experience the steroid-boon of the 90's, nor were they Canseco's teammates long enough to likely build a solid drug rapport. Standard length for a solid drug bond is a minimum of two years.
However, Canseco has accused players of using steroids time and time again and he has been proven right time and time again. For whatever reason, Canseco seems totally incapable of telling the truth except when he is talking about steroid-users. I suppose that makes his claim of a “user” in the HOF credible. If he is telling the truth, then it should be pretty easy to narrow down the list of candidates to a numbered few based on the information that we have at our disposal. For instance, we know that Canseco played from 1985-2001. We know that the vast majority of players who he has “outed” have been former teammates. We also know that Canseco has almost exclusively ratted-out position players with thick frames. Using this information, the list of potential culprits shrinks to the size of Canseco’s steroid-reduced family jewels. So, let’s get to the deducing…
I am confident that the player Jose Canseco is speaking of is one of the 17 Hall of Famers who played during the 90’s::
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Cal Ripken Jr. 81-01
Tony Gwynn 82-01
Ryne Sandberg 81-94 and 96-97
Wade Boggs 82-99
Paul Molitor 78-98
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Eddie Murray 77-97
Gary Carter 74-92
Ozzie Smith 78-96
Dave Winfield 73-88 and 90-95
Kirby Puckett 84-95
Carlton Fisk 69 and 71-93
Robin Yount 74-93
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
George Brett 73-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
As I stated earlier, Canseco likes to rat out former teammates. Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, Ivan Rodriguez, Mark McGwire, Jason Giambi, and Roger Clemens are examples of this. Five former teammates of Canseco are on this list. They include; Rickey Henderson, Wade Boggs, Dennis Eckersley, Goose Gossage, and Nolan Ryan. Because they had the misfortune of playing with Canseco, they warrant greater consideration.
There are a few players on the list who can probably be eliminated right away. I highly doubt that either Tony Gwynn, Ozzie Smith, or Kirby Puckett used steroids. Gwynn and Puckett were pudgy, singles-hitters. Smith was a slick fielder with no power. If any of the three used, it would’ve been Puckett since he was stocky and had more power than Gywnn and Smith. Still, Puckett’s physique certainly was not that of a typical steroid-user nor was his power.
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Cal Ripken Jr. 81-01
Ryne Sandberg 81-94 and 96-97
Wade Boggs 82-99
Paul Molitor 78-98
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Eddie Murray 77-97
Gary Carter 74-92
Dave Winfield 73-88 and 90-95
Carlton Fisk 69 and 71-93
Robin Yount 74-93
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
George Brett 73-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
Although there have been documented cases of steroid use in MLB in the 80’s, all of the players Canseco has accused so far have played from the mid-90’s and beyond. It’s unlikely that a player who didn’t make it to the mid-90’s would be our “user.” So, that eliminates Gary Carter and Carlton Fisk—two catchers who saw their careers precipitously decline as one would expect from aging backstops. We can also eliminate George Brett and Robin Yount. All four retired in either 1992 or 1993.
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Cal Ripken Jr. 81-01
Ryne Sandberg 81-94 and 96-97
Wade Boggs 82-99
Paul Molitor 78-98
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Eddie Murray 77-97
Dave Winfield 73-88 and 90-95
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
Both Eddie Murray and Dave Winfield entered baseball in the 70’s. By the time the mid-90’s rolled around, these guys had done their damage. Their career numbers declined heavily into the mid 90’s. If they were using steroids, it certainly wasn’t showing.
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Cal Ripken Jr. 81-01
Ryne Sandberg 81-94 and 96-97
Wade Boggs 82-99
Paul Molitor 78-98
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
Ryne Sandberg and Paul Molitor seem to be unlikely candidates. Neither was much of a home run threat besides a couple big-stick years by Ryno. Neither looked like they took steroids. Sandberg’s career dovetailed significantly after 1992. Molitor was the same steady singles-hitter for virtually his entire career. Cal Ripken Jr. has received some speculative ink because of his Iron Man status. The theory there is that taking steroids would’ve helped him play in 2,632 consecutive games. There are two holes in that theory: 1). Steroids increase the risk of injury and 2). Ripken was never more than an average hitter after 1991.
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Wade Boggs 82-99
Dennis Eckersley 75-98
Nolan Ryan 66 and 68-93
Goose Gossage 72-89, 91-94
At first glance, Nolan Ryan’s ability to throw 100 MPH-gas at 46 might raise some suspicions. If Roger Clemens—the closest thing we have seen to Ryan with respect to age and velocity—is any indication, then Ryan may have indeed had some pharmaceutical assistance. However, there are four factors that make it unlikely that Nolan Ryan is the culprit; 1). He was a pitcher which does not fit Canseco's expertise, 2). He retired before the steroid boon of the mid-90’s, 3). The players Canseco accused of steroid-use in Texas when he was Ryan's teammate were all Latin American. I get the impression that 46-year old Nolan Ryan wasn't hanging with Canseco, Rafael Palmeiro, Juan Gonzalez, and Pudge Rodriguez. 4). It has been 16 years since Canseco and Ryan were teammates and 10 years since Ryan was elected to the Hall of Fame. Canseco has had plenty of time to drop his “bomb” about a steroid-user in the HOF. The fact that he didn’t likely indicates that Ryan isn’t the guy. For the same reasons it appears safe to eliminate both Dennis Eckersley and Goose Gossage. Eck was a skin and bones relief pitcher. Gossage was 40 years old and barely managed 40 innings during his time with Canseco. Neither would appear to be steroid-users.
Rickey Henderson 79-03
Wade Boggs 82-99
The only two left are Rickey Henderson and Wade Boggs. Boggs only played one season with Canseco and it was his last as major leaguer. He very likely only played an 18th season just to reach the 3,000-hit milestone. Boggs was one of the great singles hitters in baseball history. The idea of him taking steroids in what was obviously his last season at 41 doesn’t make a lot of sense.
That leaves Rickey Henderson. I don’t think the timing of Canseco’s “bombshell” is coincidental. These claims of a “user in the Hall of Fame" are brand spankin’ new and weren’t made until Rickey Henderson was inducted into the HOF just a few weeks ago.. Canseco isn’t one to keep his mouth zipped. If this is something he could’ve said before, he likely would’ve said it. Henderson was a teammate of Canseco’s from 1989-1992. That is the time period in which Canseco claims to have injected Mark McGwire with steroids. Henderson was a strong player. His legs and upper body were thick. He certainly wouldn’t pass for Ozzie Smith’s stunt double.
If it does turn out to be Rickey Henderson, it would be quite ironic that even when Canseco tried to do something noble—in this case, protecting the identity and subsequent legacy of a former teammate—he failed miserably. It doesn’t take long to narrow down the list of potential suspects. I’m pretty sure he didn’t think that far ahead but I bet Rickey Henderson wishes he did.
Note: Canseco played with both Reggie Jackson and Don Sutton--Hall of Famers who retired in '87 and '88, respectively--as a member of the A's for one season each. Sutton played for the A's in Canseco's rookie year. Jackson retired after one unproductive season as Canseco's teammate. While anything is possible, neither played long enough to experience the steroid-boon of the 90's, nor were they Canseco's teammates long enough to likely build a solid drug rapport. Standard length for a solid drug bond is a minimum of two years.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
Someone Get These Guys A Chart
I’m a Dave Dombrowski fan. He single-handedly brought the Detroit Tigers back to relevance. As far as I’m concerned, he is one of the top GMs in MLB and deserves pretty damn close to a lifetime pass in Detroit. However, I believe he made a costly error by not bringing a bat to Detroit at the trade deadline. I realize bats don’t grow on trees—actually, they are trees but you get the point. However, I also realize that the price to acquire a booming bat is not anywhere close to what it’s made out to be. Those who read my blog know that I was adamant that the Tigers should have done whatever it took short of trading Rick Porcello to bring Adam Dunn to Detroit. Talk to a novice fan about Dunn and they’ll try to sell you the “who needs 150 strikeouts?” bag of goods. People who know what they’re talking about will tell you that Dunn is one of the premier run producers in the majors. He would’ve been a colossal upgrade for the Tigers. Apparently, though, DD wasn't interested in paying the price. Maybe he shares J.P. Ricciardi’s caveman view of Dunn. Judging from Ricciardi’s sophomoric handling of the Roy Halladay trade talks, I don’t think sharing any views with the Blue Jays GM is such a good thing right now.
The Washington Nationals would have been a perfect trade partner. They are epically terrible. Dunn’s value with 1.5 years left on his contract—the same as Roy Halladay—will never be greater. From Washington’s perspective, trading Dunn would’ve made a lot of sense. There were only two things that could’ve kept Dunn out of Detroit: 1). DD doesn’t understand Dunn’s value and 2). The Tigers weren’t willing to offer a strong enough package. I’m going to give DD the benefit of the doubt and eliminate the first choice. Even with Dunn's flaws, his value would've been of premium importance to the Tigers. The AL has the DH so any talk of Dunn's defensive shortcomings should be moot. If this is a matter of where to put Carlos Guillen, then his butt needs to beglued super-glued to the bench. So, let’s assume that the Tigers were simply unwilling to put together the package necessary to acquire Dunn. If that is the case, then I think it is likely that DD made a huge mistake that will prove to be detrimental to Detroit's odds of making the playoffs. The Nationals were reportedly asking for quite a bit in return for Dunn. What exactly that was remains a mystery. Clearly, Dunn’s value isn’t at the level of Halladay’s—arguably the best pitcher in baseball. As a result, I think the Tigers could’ve offered an enticing package without giving up their top three prospects. The Phillies didn’t have to part with any of their top prospects to get Cliff Lee and the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday for a bargain basement price. I would be surprised if the Tigers couldn’t have gotten the Nationals to bite on a package that included four of the following players; Ryan Perry or Casey Crosby, Cody Satterwhite, Jeff Larish, Cale Iorg, Scott Sizemore, Casper Wells, Ryan Strieby, Brett Jacobson, Brennan Boesch, Scott Green, Robbie Weinhardt, and Wilkin Ramirez. Strieby has ascended to one of the top five prospects in the organization and appears to be an Adam Dunn clone. He would've been a perfect centerpiece to a deal with the Nationals. Instead, the Tigers opted to keep their prospects which is a mistake too often made by MLB GMs.
This is where things get frustrating for me. There is a saying in baseball that goes something like, “prospects are for losers.” I agree with that sentiment. How many of the top 15 prospects in the Tigers organization at any given time will end up being solid contributors in the big leagues? For every Justin Verlander who pans out, there are a multitude of “top prospects” who don’t. Just in the last five years alone, Brent Clevlen, Humberto Sanchez, Kyle Sleeth, Jay Sborz, Rob Henkel, Cody Kirkland, Scott Moore, Kenny Baugh, Jeff Larish, Virgil Vazquez, Jordan Tata, Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern, Jeff Frazier, Eric Beattie, and Tony Giarratano failed to make an impact beyond the minors. All were top ten prospects in the organization at one time. Jeremy Bonderman and Joel Zumaya haven’t even lived up to expectations. In fact, in the last ten years the Tigers farm system has only produced four above average players: Justin Verlander, Curtis Granderson, Rick Porcello (giving the benefit of the doubt here) and Jair Jurrjens. If prospects were stocks, nobody would buy them. If they were games at a casino, nobody would play them. Yet, GM's love them. The most overvalued commodities in MLB are "top prospects."
There needs to be a system somewhat similar to the NFL Draft Trade Value Chart that takes most of the guesswork out of trades involving prospects. Someone with a lot of time on their hands needs to figure out how often the #1 prospect in an organization turns into a superstar and so on. That way, when the Tigers balk at giving up, let’s say, the #3, #5, and #7 prospect in the organization for someone like Adam Dunn, the chart will tell how dumb--or not dumb--that decision was. The amount of research that would need to go into such an endeavor would be exhaustive but it would be well worth it, in my opinion. I think more GMs would realize how little sense it makes to hold on to prospects.
I’ve done a small-scale version of what I am proposing just to give you an idea of what I am talking about and to explain why it would be so important. I went through Baseball America’s list of top 100 prospects from 2005. I categorized each player into one of five groups based on how what caliber player they are today. They are; Superstar, Above Average, Average, Below Average, and Minor Leaguer. Obviously these categories are arbitrary. I suppose there could be “slightly above average” and “slightly below average” but I think that would be overdoing it for the purposes of this post. Putting each of the 100 prospects into one of the five categories is also fairly arbitrary. For instance, one person might think that Delmon Young should be classified as “average” while others might think he is “below average.” However, I think most people would agree with the classifications of most of the prospects. So, let’s get to what I found…
Of the 100 best prospects in MLB in 2005, only five are “Superstars.” Just 20 received a classification of “Above average.” That means that of the top 100 players, 75 have become no better than an average major leaguer. Remember, these were the absolute best prospects in MLB. These are the players deemed to be most likely to succeed in the majors. I took this a little bit further and classified the prospects into three tiers. The first tier included prospects #1-33; the second tier #34-66; and the third tier #67-100. There are 30 teams in MLB. So, each tier could loosely be described as a level within an organization. For instance, the top tier (1-33) would likely include the majority of the #1 organizational prospects in MLB. The second tier could be loosely described as the #2 prospect in each organization while the third tier would then be the #3 prospect in each organization. This is far from exact since some organizations have better farm systems while others have worse but it does give a rough estimate of the value of a #1, #2, and #3 prospect in each organization in 2005. I have charted all 100 prospects based on both their current status as a player (Superstar etc.) and their status as a prospect (Tier 1 etc.) in 2005. Here are the results...
The “numbers” are probabilities. The chart shows that there is a .15 probability or 15% chance that a “Tier #1” prospect from 2005 would become a “Superstar.” Moving along, the chart shows that there is a .36 probability or 36% chance that a Tier 1 prospect becomes better than an average MLB baseball player (.15 +.21). There is only a 27% chance that a Tier 3 player turns out to be an average major leaguer or better. Clearly, the odds get substantially worse the further we go down the organizational lists. Yet, we see GM’s routinely turn away the chance to grab a superstar contributor at a position of need because they don’t want to part with prospects. Just two years ago, the Tigers traded their top two prospects—uber prospects if you will—for Miguel Cabrera. Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller’s values will never be higher than what they were at that time. It is highly unlikely—and it was always highly unlikely—that either would end up fulfilling the lofty expectations set forth by scouts and GM’s. DD did exactly what he should've done; he found a team willing to part with a superstar, and sent them a big pile of highly valued uncertainty. Prospects are for teams like the Marlins and Nationals whose existence is built entirely on the idea of hope. “Maybe this guy will be the next Albert Pujols.” The odds of that—or anything close to it—are 15%. The odds of Adam Dunn being a superstar are 100%.
The value of a Tier 1 prospect is essentially 15% of a superstar. Based on the numbers from the 2005 BA list, a GM would need to acquire at least four Tier 1 prospects to likely receive a player who ends up being a superstar. There is a saying that goes, “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.” The baseball version would go something like, "a superstar in hand is worth four prospects on the farm." It is almost always worth it to trade multiple top prospects to acquire a superstar based on the data above. Yet, we see GM’s like DD unwilling to part with prospects to bring what would be a pivotal boost to Detroit's playoff chances. If the Tigers don't make the playoffs, a strong argument could be made that failing to acquire Adam Dunn was the reason. At some point GMs need to get over their “boogie man” complex when it comes to prospects.
My hope is that somewhere down the line, someone does what I’ve done on a much grander scale. Instead of using data from just one season, data from every season of the last 15 years should be used to assign easily identifiable value to all prospects. Instead of assigning values to just the top 100 prospects in any given year, the top 1,000 prospects or more should be assigned values. Sure, there are intangible properties that need to be taken into consideration. Maybe a chart tells a GM that a proposed prospect package is worth giving up for a superstar but he just has a feeling that one of the prospects in the deal has something “special.” The human element will always be a factor as it is in the NFL. The problem is that the "human element" is the reason why prospects are vastly overrated to begin with. Every GM thinks his prospects are the ones that are going to defy the odds. The evidence just doesn’t back it up. I’m very disappointed that DD didn’t pony up the package necessary to bring Dunn to Detroit. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Nationals asked for Rick Porcello, Casey Crosby, Ryan Perry and 33% ownership of the Detroit Tigers. Judging from what it cost Philly to get Cliff Lee and St. Louis to acquire Matt Holliday, I don’t think that was the case. Dunn very likely could’ve been had for a combination of players that I fear a prospect value chart would’ve proven to be more than worth the price. Instead, the Tigers will struggle to make the playoffs and—even if they do—will have no chance of competing with the high-powered offenses of Boston and New York.
The Washington Nationals would have been a perfect trade partner. They are epically terrible. Dunn’s value with 1.5 years left on his contract—the same as Roy Halladay—will never be greater. From Washington’s perspective, trading Dunn would’ve made a lot of sense. There were only two things that could’ve kept Dunn out of Detroit: 1). DD doesn’t understand Dunn’s value and 2). The Tigers weren’t willing to offer a strong enough package. I’m going to give DD the benefit of the doubt and eliminate the first choice. Even with Dunn's flaws, his value would've been of premium importance to the Tigers. The AL has the DH so any talk of Dunn's defensive shortcomings should be moot. If this is a matter of where to put Carlos Guillen, then his butt needs to be
This is where things get frustrating for me. There is a saying in baseball that goes something like, “prospects are for losers.” I agree with that sentiment. How many of the top 15 prospects in the Tigers organization at any given time will end up being solid contributors in the big leagues? For every Justin Verlander who pans out, there are a multitude of “top prospects” who don’t. Just in the last five years alone, Brent Clevlen, Humberto Sanchez, Kyle Sleeth, Jay Sborz, Rob Henkel, Cody Kirkland, Scott Moore, Kenny Baugh, Jeff Larish, Virgil Vazquez, Jordan Tata, Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern, Jeff Frazier, Eric Beattie, and Tony Giarratano failed to make an impact beyond the minors. All were top ten prospects in the organization at one time. Jeremy Bonderman and Joel Zumaya haven’t even lived up to expectations. In fact, in the last ten years the Tigers farm system has only produced four above average players: Justin Verlander, Curtis Granderson, Rick Porcello (giving the benefit of the doubt here) and Jair Jurrjens. If prospects were stocks, nobody would buy them. If they were games at a casino, nobody would play them. Yet, GM's love them. The most overvalued commodities in MLB are "top prospects."
There needs to be a system somewhat similar to the NFL Draft Trade Value Chart that takes most of the guesswork out of trades involving prospects. Someone with a lot of time on their hands needs to figure out how often the #1 prospect in an organization turns into a superstar and so on. That way, when the Tigers balk at giving up, let’s say, the #3, #5, and #7 prospect in the organization for someone like Adam Dunn, the chart will tell how dumb--or not dumb--that decision was. The amount of research that would need to go into such an endeavor would be exhaustive but it would be well worth it, in my opinion. I think more GMs would realize how little sense it makes to hold on to prospects.
I’ve done a small-scale version of what I am proposing just to give you an idea of what I am talking about and to explain why it would be so important. I went through Baseball America’s list of top 100 prospects from 2005. I categorized each player into one of five groups based on how what caliber player they are today. They are; Superstar, Above Average, Average, Below Average, and Minor Leaguer. Obviously these categories are arbitrary. I suppose there could be “slightly above average” and “slightly below average” but I think that would be overdoing it for the purposes of this post. Putting each of the 100 prospects into one of the five categories is also fairly arbitrary. For instance, one person might think that Delmon Young should be classified as “average” while others might think he is “below average.” However, I think most people would agree with the classifications of most of the prospects. So, let’s get to what I found…
Of the 100 best prospects in MLB in 2005, only five are “Superstars.” Just 20 received a classification of “Above average.” That means that of the top 100 players, 75 have become no better than an average major leaguer. Remember, these were the absolute best prospects in MLB. These are the players deemed to be most likely to succeed in the majors. I took this a little bit further and classified the prospects into three tiers. The first tier included prospects #1-33; the second tier #34-66; and the third tier #67-100. There are 30 teams in MLB. So, each tier could loosely be described as a level within an organization. For instance, the top tier (1-33) would likely include the majority of the #1 organizational prospects in MLB. The second tier could be loosely described as the #2 prospect in each organization while the third tier would then be the #3 prospect in each organization. This is far from exact since some organizations have better farm systems while others have worse but it does give a rough estimate of the value of a #1, #2, and #3 prospect in each organization in 2005. I have charted all 100 prospects based on both their current status as a player (Superstar etc.) and their status as a prospect (Tier 1 etc.) in 2005. Here are the results...
MLB Prospect Value Chart
| Tier | 1 (1-33) | 2 (34-66) | 3 (67-100) | # in BA '05 Top 100 |
| Superstar | .15 | 0 | .03 | 5 |
| Above Average | .21 | .21 | .18 | 20 |
| Average | .18 | .05 | .06 | 13 |
| Below Average | .3 | .39 | .35 | 35 |
| Minor Leaguer | .18 | .24 | .38 | 27 |
The “numbers” are probabilities. The chart shows that there is a .15 probability or 15% chance that a “Tier #1” prospect from 2005 would become a “Superstar.” Moving along, the chart shows that there is a .36 probability or 36% chance that a Tier 1 prospect becomes better than an average MLB baseball player (.15 +.21). There is only a 27% chance that a Tier 3 player turns out to be an average major leaguer or better. Clearly, the odds get substantially worse the further we go down the organizational lists. Yet, we see GM’s routinely turn away the chance to grab a superstar contributor at a position of need because they don’t want to part with prospects. Just two years ago, the Tigers traded their top two prospects—uber prospects if you will—for Miguel Cabrera. Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller’s values will never be higher than what they were at that time. It is highly unlikely—and it was always highly unlikely—that either would end up fulfilling the lofty expectations set forth by scouts and GM’s. DD did exactly what he should've done; he found a team willing to part with a superstar, and sent them a big pile of highly valued uncertainty. Prospects are for teams like the Marlins and Nationals whose existence is built entirely on the idea of hope. “Maybe this guy will be the next Albert Pujols.” The odds of that—or anything close to it—are 15%. The odds of Adam Dunn being a superstar are 100%.
The value of a Tier 1 prospect is essentially 15% of a superstar. Based on the numbers from the 2005 BA list, a GM would need to acquire at least four Tier 1 prospects to likely receive a player who ends up being a superstar. There is a saying that goes, “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.” The baseball version would go something like, "a superstar in hand is worth four prospects on the farm." It is almost always worth it to trade multiple top prospects to acquire a superstar based on the data above. Yet, we see GM’s like DD unwilling to part with prospects to bring what would be a pivotal boost to Detroit's playoff chances. If the Tigers don't make the playoffs, a strong argument could be made that failing to acquire Adam Dunn was the reason. At some point GMs need to get over their “boogie man” complex when it comes to prospects.
My hope is that somewhere down the line, someone does what I’ve done on a much grander scale. Instead of using data from just one season, data from every season of the last 15 years should be used to assign easily identifiable value to all prospects. Instead of assigning values to just the top 100 prospects in any given year, the top 1,000 prospects or more should be assigned values. Sure, there are intangible properties that need to be taken into consideration. Maybe a chart tells a GM that a proposed prospect package is worth giving up for a superstar but he just has a feeling that one of the prospects in the deal has something “special.” The human element will always be a factor as it is in the NFL. The problem is that the "human element" is the reason why prospects are vastly overrated to begin with. Every GM thinks his prospects are the ones that are going to defy the odds. The evidence just doesn’t back it up. I’m very disappointed that DD didn’t pony up the package necessary to bring Dunn to Detroit. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Nationals asked for Rick Porcello, Casey Crosby, Ryan Perry and 33% ownership of the Detroit Tigers. Judging from what it cost Philly to get Cliff Lee and St. Louis to acquire Matt Holliday, I don’t think that was the case. Dunn very likely could’ve been had for a combination of players that I fear a prospect value chart would’ve proven to be more than worth the price. Instead, the Tigers will struggle to make the playoffs and—even if they do—will have no chance of competing with the high-powered offenses of Boston and New York.
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